Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Diego CA

833 am PDT Fri apr 26 2024

Synopsis

It will be cool and windy today and tonight, with some light showers mainly in San Diego County and in foothills of mountains. There is also a small chance of thunderstorms in the higher mountains and adjacent areas late afternoon and evening. Fair weather will return Saturday with higher pressure aloft. The marine layer will continue to furnish low clouds near the coast each night and morning. Some cooling, some extension of the marine layer clouds, and stronger onshore winds in mountains and deserts are likely late next week.

Discussion

For extreme southwestern California including Orange, San Diego, western Riverside and southwestern San Bernardino counties,

Light showers and pockets of drizzle continue this morning mainly in foothills and in San Diego County. Meanwhile, strong westerly winds continue in the lee slopes of mountains into the deserts with isolated gusts over 50 mph around San Gorgonio Pass. A vigorous shortwave of low pressure will shoot through interior SoCal today and tonight. This will continue to force strong winds in the mountains and deserts, but also boost coastal winds this afternoon. Isolated to scattered light showers or drizzle will continue, mainly in foothills today. As the wave axis moves through this afternoon and evening, it will bring colder air aloft, destabilizing the atmosphere especially in the interior. That's why there's a small chance of thunderstorms over the higher mountains in SBD and RIV Counties and adjacent valleys late this afternoon and evening. San Diego County will get an enhanced chance of showers during this time. Showers and winds decrease overnight and all that's left by sunrise Saturday will be the clouds from mountains westward. Clearing out Saturday should get an early start in Orange County before the rest of the area clears out by late morning, although some cumulus clouds will form over the mountains. Weak high pressure aloft will bring at least several days of fair and warmer weather next week. High temperatures Monday through Thursday will achieve near normal at the coast and slightly above normal inland. A coastal eddy and a persistent marine layer will contribute coastal clouds during the nights and mornings. There is uncertainty in the upper air pattern for later next week, whether we'll have a weak trough or a weak ridge pattern. A narrow majority of ensemble members lean toward a weak trough pattern, which would increase winds in mountains and deserts, deepen the marine layer and bring slightly cooler weather late next week.

Aviation

261540z, Coast/Valleys/Foothills, Low clouds will continue to increase in coverage this morning. Cigs 4000-6000 ft MSL will lower 2000-4000 ft MSL, locally near 1500 ft MSL 16Z-20Z. DZ/-RA will occur for areas near the coast and portions of San Diego County 16Z- 18Z Fri. Vis 3-5SM with higher terrain obscured this morning.

SCT-BKN clouds with bases 2500-3500 ft MSL throughout much of the day across San Diego County. W winds strengthening after 22Z, with gusts 20-30 kts.

Mountain Ridges/Deserts, Areas of west to northwest winds with surface gusts 25-40 kt through tonight. Occasional LLWS and rotors along desert slopes and adjacent desert areas, including vcnty KPSP, along with MOD to STG up/downdrafts. Areas of reduced vis 3-5SM in BLDU in deserts. Winds becoming more widespread and stronger after 18Z today where chances are moderate to high for wind gusts greater than 45 kts.

Marine

Strong northwest winds and higher combined seas with choppy conditions will generate hazardous boating conditions through early Saturday, especially beyond 15 nautical miles offshore. Gale force winds are possible at times tonight near San Clemente Island. The Small Craft Advisory contains further details. Winds and seas subside late Saturday and calmer winds and seas are expected for Sunday into the middle of next week.

Beaches

Short-period wind swells will produce some elevated surf, mainly on exposed west-facing beaches of San Diego County. Surf and swells will peak this afternoon with sets to 7 feet then subside tonight into Saturday.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Ca, Beach Hazards Statement from 2 PM PDT this afternoon through Saturday morning for Orange County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.

Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for Apple and Lucerne Valleys-Coachella Valley-Riverside County Mountains-San Bernardino County Mountains-San Diego County Deserts-San Diego County Mountains-San Gorgonio Pass Near Banning.

PZ, Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM PDT Saturday for Coastal Waters from San Mateo Point to the Mexican Border and out to 30 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT Saturday for Waters from San Mateo Point to the Mexican Border Extending 30 to 60 nm out including San Clemente Island.

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