24/1159 PM.
Temperatures will remain above normal across all valleys and interior locations through this weekend. Persistent marine layer will keep temperatures on the cooler side for coastal areas south of Point Conception through at least Thursday. After another warm up on Friday max temperatures will end up ten to 15 degrees above normal and will continue through the weekend. Cooler and cloudier conditions are likely early next week with rain possible mid week.
(tdy-Fri), 25/1220 AM.
A 1300 ft marine layer and decent onshore flow to the east along with negligible offshore flow from the north will allow for a robust marine layer cloud pattern to sit atop of most of the csts and most vlys south of Pt Conception. Offshore flow will limit the amount of low clouds N of Pt Conception to the immediate coasts of western SBA county. The capping inversion is not as strong as it was ydy, but the onshore push in the afternoon is stronger so clearing will likely be similar to ydy and maybe even a little later. Max temps will be very similar to ydy's values except for the Central Coast where weaker offshore flow will bring an earlier seabreeze and 10 to 15 degrees of cooling.
A little upper level support will join with a small offshore push from the north and produce gusty winds through the I-5 corridor and NW portion of the Antelope Vly. The gusts will likely come in just under advisory levels.
The upper high south of New Mexico with strengthen and expand on Thursday. This will push hgts over Srn CA up to 583 dam. The onshore flow will persist as will the low clouds south of Pt Conception. Max temps will be fairly similar to today's except for few degrees of warming over the mtns and most vlys due to the rising hgts. The SBA south coast will also warm with a little downsloping off the Santa Ynez Range.
Friday's forecast is a little tricky and is very dependent on the sfc pressure gradients. The current forecast favors a decent offshore push, minimal marine layer and 4 to 8 locally 10 degrees of warming. The higher rez mdls are are just starting to forecast for this time period and do not show nearly as much offshore flow. If this trend continues, Friday's forecast will need to be cooled and marine layer clouds reintroduced.
(Sat-Tue), 25/225 AM.
Srn CA will be under an area of strengthening SW flow through the period. Hgts will fall from about 579 dam on Saturday morning to ~568 dam on Tuesday morning. Gradients will slowly become more and more onshore through the period. There will be plenty of night through morning low clouds with patchy fog. The lowering hgts and increasing onshore flow will allow for decent vly coverage. Skies, otherwise will be mostly clear over the weekend but there will be increasing mid and high level clouds starting on Monday.
The lowering hgts, marine layer, increasing onshore flow and increasing clouds will all conspire to lower temps starting Sunday (Saturdays temps will be similar to Friday's). The current forecast call for 2 to 4 degrees of cooling Sunday, 3 to 6 degrees on Monday and 5 to 10 additional degrees on Tuesday. By Tuesday max temps will be at or below normal for the first time since March 4th.
A chance of rain will develop Tuesday and continue into Wednesday as a trof/weak front is forecast to move through the area. Both AI-mdls have kept this timing but now show much less rainfall potential. Current ensemble and AI based forecasts now show that this will be a quarter to half inch storm. This could change and while timing confidence is high the rainfall forecast is not.
25/1017z.
At 0825Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 900 feet deep. The top of the inversion was at 3800 feet with a temperature of 22 C.
High confidence TAFs for KPRB, KPMD, & KWJF.
Low confidence in TAF for KSBP with a 40 percent chc of LIFR/VLIFR conds 12Z-17Z.
Moderate confidence in remaining TAFs. Timing of CIG/VSBY restrictions may be off +/- 2 hours. Cig hgt could be off by +/- 200 ft.
KLAX, Moderate confidence in TAF. SCT conds could arrive as late as 1930Z. Low clouds could return as early as 26/01Z. No significant east wind component is expected.
KBUR, Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 30 percent chc of cigs remaining AOA OVC005.
24/836 PM.
High confidence in Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds and steep seas expanding through Wednesday over offshore waters from the Central Coast down to San Nicolas Island. It will remain windy through Thursday Night and will likely weaken quickly and significantly on Friday. The winds peak Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning, when there is a 40% chance for low-end Gales.
The nearshore waters of the Central Coast will see some of those winds and seas, with a 60% chance of reaching SCA during the peak.
High confidence in the rest of the waters being without a SCA through at least Friday.
While some fog will remain possible, visibilities will likely stay above 1 mile.
Ca, NONE. PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect from noon today to 9 PM PDT Thursday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 2 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Friday for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
