27/258 AM.
Below normal temperatures will continue through the middle of this coming week, and isolated showers are possible late Wednesday into Thursday. A warming trend is expected towards the end of the week. Breezy west winds will occur at times across the beaches and deserts.
(tdy-Wed), 27/1029 AM.
***UPDATE***
Some bubbling up of low to mid level clouds this morning. Cannot rule out a shower or drizzle under more organized clouds focused across eastern LA County and interior mountains adjacent to Kern County through this afternoon. Breezy northwest to west winds will continue today with about 20 pecent chance of reaching advisory levels for southern Santa Barbara County to the Oxnard Plain in Ventura County.
***From Previous Discussion***
Pretty benign weather on tap for the next three days. Weak troffing will be overhead today, followed by a flat ridge on Tuesday. Wednesday will feature a dry and lifeless upper low moving through the state just north of the area. At the sfc there will be weak to moderate onshore flow today. Tuesday will see weak offshore flow (at least in the morning). Stronger onshore flow will develop Wednesday with a 6 or 7 mb onshore push to the east forecast in the afternoon.
Skies will be partly cloudy today and Tuesday as plenty of mid and high clouds drift over the area. The onshore flow and upper low passage will likely develop some coastal low clouds Wednesday morning followed by continued partly cloudy skies late morning and afternoon.
A little extra sunshine and slight hgt rises will allow for 1 to 2 degrees of warming over most of the area today. The offshore flow and slight ridging will combine to bring a noticeable warm up Tuesday of 4 to 8 degrees. Despite the stronger onshore flow and lower hgts, most areas are forecast to warm a degree or two more on Wednesday. This may well not happen as about 40 percent of the ensembles show some cooling. Most max temps will be a few degrees blo normal through the three day period.
(Thu-Sun), 27/217 AM.
On Thursday a cut off low well to the WSW of KLAX will swing to the east and pass to just to south of San Diego. This system will bring only a slight chc of showers to the eastern San Gabriels in the morning and afternoon. There will likely be another round of morning low clouds with otherwise partly cloudy skies. Highs will mostly be in the 70s save for some mid to upper 60s at the beaches.
Ridging will dominate the weather on Friday and Saturday. There will be moderate onshore flow so there may be some night through morning low clouds and fog. The onshore flow will also limit the amount of warming created by the ridge. Look for 2 to 4 degrees of warming (a little less across the Central Coast due to the onshore flow) on Friday with little change on Saturday. Max temps everywhere, save for the beaches, will end up 2 to 4 degrees above normal.
Plenty of disagreement between all mdls starting Sunday. The preponderance of solutions favors a 4 to 8 degree cool down with lowering hgts and strong onshore flow. The onshore flow will also bring gusty winds to the mtns and Antelope Vly in the afternoon.
While still a very low confidence forecast there is some chance of light rain anytime Sunday night through Tuesday.
27/1722z.
At 1720Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor an inversion.
High confidence in TAFs.
KLAX, High confidence in TAF through this evening. There is a 20 percent chc of MVFR cigs after 12z. No significant east wind component is expected.
KBUR, High confidence in TAF.
27/856 AM.
Expecting west to northwest winds increasing to low end Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels this afternoon through evening across the Santa Barbara Channel and around the Channel Islands, including across the outer waters down to San Nicolas Island. While not expected to be widespread, isolated SCA level wind gusts may occur in the San Pedro Channel and nearshore along the Los Angeles County coastline during the same period.
Winds are likely to diminish tonight, then there is a 30-50% chance for SCA level winds beginning tomorrow afternoon, highest chances across the Outer Waters, western Santa Barbara Channel, and nearshore waters along the Central Coast.
Chances for more widespread SCA level winds increase Wednesday through Friday, with highest chances Thursday. Short period, choppy seas may become common during this period. Seas will build to near 10 feet across the Outer Waters Friday through Saturday, but winds are forecast to improve over the weekend. A 15-30% chance for SCA winds still exists over the Outer Waters and western Santa Barbara Channel, highest chances Saturday.
Ca, NONE. PZ, NONE.
