09/115 PM.
High clouds are increasing across the area as the next storm system is poised to move onshore later Tuesday into early Wednesday. Light to moderate rain is expected during that time, with gusty southerly winds over the higher terrain, especially Tuesday night. Significant cooling down to normal levels are expected through Thursday before a brief and minor warm up occurs Friday and Saturday. For the following week, multiple rounds of precipitation and much cooler conditions are likely.
(tdy-Thu), 09/211 PM.
High clouds are increasing across the area well ahead of the next storm system moving this way. Temperatures remain above normal today but overall 5-10 degrees cooler than yesterday. Expecting some low clouds and fog to develop overnight tonight as onshore flow returns.
After a lengthy dry spell since early January, the upper level pattern appears to be shifting to allow storms coming across the Pacific ocean to reach southern California. The first of which will be later Tuesday into Wednesday morning. A lot of this storm will happen during the overnight hours, especially south of Pt Conception but northern and southern extremes (Central Coast and LA County) will have some rain before and after respectively. This is not a particularly strong storm, but there are some isolated thunderstorms associated with it currently and models are indicating at least a potential for brief rain rates at or locally above a half inch per hour. Expecting this storm to move through at a pretty fast clip as the latest models show close to 150kt jet late Tuesday night. To go along with that there is a strong southerly gradient during that period and with the strong winds aloft it's likely to be quite windy at times during the overnight hours into Wednesday morning, especially over higher terrain and in the Antelope Valley where south gusts between 50 and 60 mph are possible. A wind advisory have been issued for all interior sections starting Tuesday afternoon and running through Wednesday afternoon.
Rain amounts expected to be mostly an inch or less across most coast/valley areas and one to two inches in the mountains. Light snow accumulations possible above 6000 feet. Generally 3 inches or less except locally up to 6" at higher elevations.
After a brief period of scattered showers Wednesday morning showers will be tapering off with partly cloudy skies and cool temperatures mostly in the low to mid 60s. Winds will remain breezy in the mountains but generally decreasing through the day.
There are a few ensemble members showing some isolated showers on Thursday but overall dry conditions expected with seasonably cool temperatures and ample sunshine.
(Fri-Mon), 09/209 PM.
There will be brief warm up Fri/Sat along with some light offshore flow but otherwise quiet weather to start the weekend.
A lengthy storm cycle is expected to start as early as Sunday but could be as late as next Monday based on the latest ensemble solutions. Off and on rain is then expected through at least the middle of next week with an additional 2-4 inches of rain area wide. There are also indications that snow levels may lowering quite a bit as well during this cycle. As we get closer to the weekend there will be more precise timing and precip amounts.
09/1729z.
Around 17Z, there was no marine layer depth at KLAX. There was a surface-based inversion up to around 2400 feet with a temperature near 19 degrees Celsius.
Moderate confidence in the current forecast. There is a high chance of VLIFR to LIFR conditions at KPRB until around 19Z then aft about 14Z tonight. Otherwise, there is a moderate to high chance of IFR/MVFR conditions developing at coastal and vly terminals after about 10Z Tuesday.
KLAX, VFR conditions are expected through at least 10Z Tuesday. There is a 50%-60% chance of MVFR conditions after 10Z Tuesday. Any easterly winds will be 7 knots or less.
KBUR, VFR conditions are expected through about 14Z Tuesday followed by a 50%-60% chance of MVFR cigs. No wind impacts are expected through the period.
09/1255 PM.
For the outer waters, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) conditions are likely (60% chance) at times through much of the week. There are a few periods where the swell and wind may drop off, but winds and seas will likely remain near hazardous levels to small craft through the forecast period. There is a high to likely (50%-70% chance) of Gale Force southerly winds between mid-Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night for the waters west and north of Point Conception.
For the inner waters N of Point Sal, conds should remain below SCA levels through early Tuesday morning. For Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday, winds and seas are expected to be at SCA levels (70% chance) with a 50% chance of Gale Force winds at times thru Tuesday night. Conds should be below SCA levels Wednesday night through Saturday night, except for a 40% chance of SCA wind gusts at times Friday evening.
Inside the southern California bight, conds will remain below SCA levels through Tuesday morning. There is a moderate (30%-40%) chance of SCA level winds Tuesday afternoon increasing to a high to likely (50-70% chance) by Tuesday evening. Winds will likely fall below SCA levels between Wednesday and the end of the week, but there is a 40%-60% chance of SCA conditions developing Thursday evening and Friday evening across the western portions of the Santa Barbara Channel.
09/836 AM.
A high surf advisory remains in effect for the Ventura County beaches through Wednesday, but there is a 40 percent chance that the surf could subside this afternoon and evening then rise again for Tuesday. While the swell will primarily be out of the west, the swell will become more southwesterly late Tuesday through Wednesday. During this time period, typically more sheltered south to southwest-facing beaches and harbors will see elevated-to- high surf conditions, and there is a chance that a high surf advisory may be needed for Santa Barbara South Coast as swell direction are a little more favorable.
Surf and swell will build Friday and likely remain near high surf criteria through next weekend, then there is a moderate to high chance of more widespread and higher surf developing early next week. There is a 20-30 percent chance of damaging sets developing between next Monday and Tuesday.
Ca, Wind Advisory in effect from 1 PM Tuesday to 1 PM PST Wednesday for zones 38-344-345-353-376>383. (See LAXNPWLOX). High Surf Advisory in effect until 9 PM PST Wednesday for zone 354. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ, Gale Watch in effect from Tuesday morning through Tuesday afternoon for zones 645-670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect from 4 PM Tuesday to 3 AM PST Wednesday for zones 645-670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM Tuesday to 3 AM PST Wednesday for zones 650-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PST this evening for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
