03/1203 AM.
Expect cooler conditions for the coast and coastal valleys through much of this coming week, but with continued hot conditions for the interior as above-normal temperatures continue. Dense fog will affect some coastal areas.
(tdy-Wed), 03/232 AM.
Fairly uneventful summer weather will continue through the short term. High pressure will remain overhead with slightly above average hgts of 594 dam. The sfc gradients will also not change much over the next three days. There will be mdt to stg onshore flow to the east and weak to mdt onshore flow to the north.
Night through morning low clouds and fog will affect most of the cstl areas everyday. The 594 dam hgts will smoosh the marine layer enough to create pockets of dense fog, esp along the Central Coast.
Max temps will continue to be the main talking point. The csts and vlys will see a small cooling trend each day of 1 to 2 degrees. Max temps will remain above normal, but not dangerously so. The lower elevations of the mtns and the far interior will not be affected by the marine layer or onshore flow and will continue to see max temps from 100 to 110 degrees. Heat advisories and extreme heat warnings are in effect for these areas through Wednesday. PLease see the product LAXNPWLOX for details.
The strong onshore push in the afternoon will create gusty winds. The gusts will not reach advisory levels but will come close in the Antelope Vly where gusts 35 to 40 mph are expected.
(Thu-Sun), 03/232 AM.
The 500mb pattern does not change much Thursday and the day does look similar to Wednesday. The mdls show just a smidgen of cooling and depending on how the interior temps go Tue and Wed there might not be a need for heat products.
The upper high strengthens on Friday and hgts over Srn CA rise to 597 dam. At the same time moisture increases with PWs over KLAX increasing to 1.42" by Saturday afternoon. Some of the EC ensembles also show a decrease in the onshore flow. Right now mdl guidance does not show too much of an increase in temps, which may well be the result of moister air not warming as quickly. The more humid air will not allow for much overnight cooling. The combination of increased humidity and warmer than normal highs and lows will likely result in another round of heat advisories and warnings.
Mdls do show the upper high weakening on Sun/Mon along with an increase in onshore flow. This should bring two days of cooling. Humidities, however, are forecast to remain elevated through at least next Tuesday.
03/1002z.
At 0822Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1000 ft deep. The top of the inversion was near 3100 feet with a temp of 27 C.
High confidence in VFR conds for KPRB, KBUR, KVNY, KPMD and KWJF.
Moderate confidence with the remaining TAFs. VFR transition timing may be off by +/- 90 minutes. KSBA and south cigs may be off by +/- 300 ft. There is a 30 percent chc of VLIFR conds at KSMX and KSBP through 15Z.
KLAX, Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 30 percent chc that cigs will remain AOA 010. VFR conds could arrive as late as 1930Z. No significant east wind component expected.
KBUR, High confidence in CAVU TAF.
03/859 AM.
Winds and seas are expected to continue to improve today and remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) criteria through the week, with the exception of northwest winds locally gusting to 20-25 knots in typically windy areas near Point Conception each afternoon and evening.
Dense fog may affect portions of the coastal waters each night through morning through much of the week, especially across the waters norther and west of Point Conception.
Ca, Extreme Heat Warning in effect until 8 PM PDT Tuesday for zones 38-377. (See LAXNPWLOX). Heat Advisory in effect until 8 PM PDT Wednesday for zones 344-345-353-375-376-378>380. (See LAXNPWLOX). Extreme Heat Warning in effect until 8 PM PDT Wednesday for zones 381>383. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ, NONE.
