22/1146 PM.
Skies will be mostly clear today and Friday. Look for warming today then cooling with a stronger sea breeze on Friday. Continued cooling Saturday with a chance of occasional light rain. Warmer Sunday and Monday. Then, another weak storm may bring light rain to the area around Tuesday.
(tdy-Sat), 23/1204 AM.
Weak ridging along with weak offshore flow bring mostly clear skies today along with a warming trend. There will be some light N to NE canyon winds but well below advisory levels. The main effect of the ridge and offshore flow will be the creation of a noticeable warming trend. Most areas will warm 4 to 8 degrees compared to ydy. Most max temps across the csts/vlys will be in the 70s with a smattering of 80 and 81 degree readings in the warmest vly locations.
Overnight the ridge will move to the east and a very weak trof will ride in on its coattails. The offshore flow will weaken and turn onshore to the east. This will likely create some coastal low clouds.
The low clouds will linger through the morning on Friday. Skies otherwise will be partly cloudy as mid and high level clouds stream overhead in the westerly flow. Slightly lower hgts and, more importantly, stronger onshore flow will combine to knock off 2 to 4 locally 5 degrees from the max temps over the csts/vlys. The absence of cool air advection will allow the far interior to warm a few degrees.
On Saturday a 555 dam upper low will swing into SLO county and then move into and through Kern county. The system is not that wet nor particularly dynamic, but will likely bring a few periods of rain to most areas (maybe not the Antelope Vly) from late morning through the evening and overnight hours. There will be likely xtnd period of dry conditions as well. Rainfall amounts will be under a quarter inch and likely a tenth or less. Rainfall rates will also be a non threatening less the a quarter inch per hour. It will be a mostly cloudy day. The clouds, rain, onshore flow and 558 dam hgts will make for a cool day with highs falling 5 to 10 degrees and ending up in the 60s. These max temps are 4 to 8 locally 10 degrees blo normal.
Gusty west winds will develop in the wake of the system in the evening. The Antelope Vly could well see advisory level gusts.
(Sun-Wed), 23/225 AM.
There are enough ensembles that lag the system enough to allow for a slight chc of morning rain. The forecast should be thought of as an "80 percent chc of no rain". Otherwise, the departing system will leave clearing skies and warmer temps in its wake. It will likely be pretty breezy in the afternoon as the onshore push to the east will be approaching 8 mb.
Dry westerly flow will set up over the area on Monday. Enough mid level clouds will drift over the area to make it a partly cloudy day. Max temps will bump up 2 to 4 degrees and max temps will end up in the mid to upper 60s across the csts and lower 70s in the vlys.
The mdls are much less enthusiastic about Tuesday's system and a 20 percent chc of rain might even be generous. The AI mdls are hinting that the best chc of rain will occur in the evening.
For Wednesday, the deterministic GFS and its forecast of a big honking upper low just off the coast has been discounted and prefer the AI-solutions with the less huge upper low further off to the SW. It should be a fairly benign weather day with max temps coming in a few degrees blo normal.
23/1721z.
At 16Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor marine inversion.
Overall, moderate to high confidence in 18Z TAF Package. VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. However, there is a 40% chance of MVFR CIGs at KLAX and KLGB Thursday morning.
KLAX, Moderate confidence in TAF. Patchy MVFR CIGs 010-015 are possible near the airfield 23/10Z-17Z. There is a 50% chance of east wind component reaching 7-8 kts 24/10-18Z.
KBUR, High confidence in VFR TAF. No wind issues expected.
23/756 AM.
For the Outer Waters, high confidence in current forecast. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds will continue across the waters north of Point Conception through Friday morning. SCA winds will likely persist through Saturday night south of Point Conception near the Channel islands. Winds could drop below advisory levels at times through this period. From Saturday afternoon through Monday, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels.
For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. SCA level NW winds are expected this afternoon into the evening. There is a moderate chance for low-end SCA level NW winds Friday afternoon/eve. For Saturday through Monday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels.
For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. SCA level winds are expected this afternoon and evening across the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel and near the Channel Islands. There is a 60-70% chance SCA winds occur across the aforementioned waters Friday afternoon/eve. For Saturday through Monday, winds and seas are generally expected to remain below advisory levels. However, onshore winds could locally reach SCA levels especially nearshore during the afternoon and evening hours.
A weak system will bring spotty showers across the coastal waters Saturday and Saturday night.
Ca, NONE. PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening for zones 645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
