06/311 AM.
Temperatures will cool today and Tuesday with increasing onshore flow and areas of low clouds and fog near the coast. Warmer temperatures will return briefly Wednesday before a sustained cooling trend takes us into the weekend with a chance of rain.
(tdy-Wed), 06/355 AM.
Today and Tuesday will feel noticeably cooler for coast and even some valleys as a weak upper trough induces an increase in onshore flow. Gradients are trending 3mb onshore this morning and several coastal areas are seeing some low clouds and fog this morning. Most coast and valleys will drop at least 3-6 degrees from yesterday's highs and near the beaches the drop could be as much as 10 degrees. The upper trough is also bringing with it a lengthy fetch of high clouds that stretches at least 1000 miles to the southwest, though by later this afternoon most of the clouds will shift to the south and east.
Later Monday and continuing through at least Wednesday northerly flow will be increasing leading to some gusty winds across southwest Santa Barbara County, the Central Coast, and the Grapevine region. Probably a 60-80 percent of advisory level winds in those areas. North gradients will peak Wednesday, and with an increase in support aloft and subsequent downsloping south of the mountains, temperatures are expected to rise anywhere from 3 to 6 degrees, making Wednesday the warmest day of this week.
(Thu-Sun), 06/419 AM.
A rapid cooling trend will begin Thursday and continue at least through next weekend as the upper low currently near 35n/140w moves into central and southern California. There's still a pretty big spread in the rain amounts and timing, but chances for at least some rain between Friday and Sunday are over 80% everywhere in the southwest California region. There's quite a few solutions from both the AI and non-AI models indicating over a half inch of rain with even about a 30% chance of an inch or more.
06/0033z.
At 0003Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer. There was an inversion with a top near 1600 ft with a temperature of 23 C.
High confidence in all TAFs for the valley and desert sites and low confidence in coastal TAFs except moderate confidence in KSBA where no CIGs are expected. Otherwise, lowered CIGs/VSBY are possible for all coastal sites, but low confidence in flight categories and timing. IFR conds are forecast but any site could be off by a category. The timing of low clouds arrival may differ by +/- 3 hrs from TAF times.
KLAX, High confidence in the 00Z TAF through 06Z. Low confidence after 06Z. Arrival and clearing times of CIGs may be off +/- 2 hours. CIG heights could range from: 004-015. No significant east wind component is expected.
KBUR, High confidence in VFR conds for the 00Z TAF.
05/757 PM.
Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds will develop south of Point Conception early this morning (Monday) and will become widespread by the afternoon to include all Outer Waters, nearshore along the Central Coast, and the Santa Barbara Channel. SCA winds will continue across all Outer Waters through Wednesday. Winds will diminish later in the week with moderate chances for SCA winds lingering south of Point Conception on Thursday and Friday.
The Inner Waters will reach SCA levels at times mainly during the afternoon and evening hours - lower chances along the Central Coast later in the week. There is a 30% chance of GALE force winds Wednesday night across the Santa Barbara Channel and near the Channel Islands.
A storm system is expected to impact the coastal waters sometime Thursday into the weekend bringing rainfall and the potential for thunderstorms. Confidence is low on exact timing and details for now.
Ca, NONE. PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Tuesday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Wednesday for zones 650-670. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 9 AM this morning to 3 AM PDT Wednesday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
