12/112 AM.
Breezy Santa Ana winds will continue through this upcoming week, mainly across Ventura and Los Angeles counties. Temperatures will peak on Wednesay, then slowly cool into next weekend. Through the week, temperatures will remain above normal.
(tdy-Wed), 12/205 AM.
Overall, 00Z models in good synoptic agreement through the short term period. At upper levels, ridge will build over the West Coast, peaking in strength on Wednesday. At the surface, moderate offshore pressure gradients will continue. With this pattern, two main concerns will continue to be winds and temperatures.
With respect to winds, gusty northeasterly winds will continue across the area through Wednesday, mainly across the Santa Ana wind-prone areas of Ventura and Los Angeles counties. Currently, widespread advisory-level winds are observed across the Santa Ana wind-prone areas and WIND ADVISORIES will remain in effect until 100 PM this afternoon. For tonight/Tuesday, the gradients and upper support weaken a bit, so wind speeds will be lower. However, still a decent chance of widespread advisory-level winds in some zones. So, will let the Day Shift look at that potential with the 12Z models and make any extension decisions. By Tuesday night and Wednesday, winds will continue to weaken and any advisory-level winds will likely be localized.
As for temperatures, the combination of a strengthening upper level ridge and continued offshore flow will allow for a warming trend for all areas through Wednesday. By Wednesday, many areas west of the mountains will have temperatures in the lower to mid 80s as all areas will be 10-15 degrees above seasonal normals. However, at this time, the forecasted temperatures still look to be 3-6 degrees below record levels.
(Thu-Sun), 12/205 AM.
For the extended, 00Z models continue to be in good synoptic agreement. At upper levels, ridge over the West Coast will weaken from day-to-day. At the surface, weak to moderate offshore gradients will continue.
Forecast-wise, no major concerns for the extended period. With the continued offshore gradients, there will be some gusty northeasterly winds. However with limited upper level support, any offshore winds should remain below advisory levels. As for temperatures, will anticipate a slow and gradual cooling trend for all areas. Even with the cooling trend, temperatures will be still be several degrees above seasonal normals through the period.
As for rain chances, the deterministic models and their respective ensembles keep things dry for the area through the 21st. After that, things could become more active with respect to rain chances. Until then, enjoy the dry and warm weather.
12/1127z.
At 0911Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer. There was surfaced based inversion with a top at 600 ft and a temperature of 19 C. Overall, high confidence in 12Z TAF Package.
Gusty NE winds with LLWS and light to occasionally mdt turbulence is possible over and near mountainous terrain. Focused across Los Angeles and Ventura counties. Wind speeds may be off by 5 kts at times for sites: KOXR, KCMA, and KVNY.
KLAX, High confidence in TAF. Good confidence in any east wind component remaining below 8 kts through the forecast period.
KBUR, High confidence in TAF. There is a chance of light to moderate turbulence and LLWS through the period.
12/124 AM.
For the Outer Waters, high confidence in current forecast. Seas could approach 10 feet across the northern waters beyond 40 NM from shore through Today. 30% chance of Small Craft Advisory to be issued for PZZ670/673. Otherwise, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels from the Channel Islands northward through Thursday. For the waters south of the Channel Islands, SCA level northeast winds are likely today through Tuesday with winds and seas expected to remain below SCA levels Wednesday through Friday.
For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, high confidence in current forecast. For tonight through Friday, winds and seas will remain below SCA levels.
For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. From Ventura southward to Santa Monica, SCA level winds are now expected at times through Tuesday morning, strongest from Point Mugu to Point Dume. Winds and seas are then expected to remain below SCA levels from Tuesday afternoon through Thursday, with a possibility of returning by Friday.
The winds will cause choppy hazardous seas, especially farther from shore, and will persist each day through at least Tuesday. Winds will be the strongest in the late night through morning hours. The winds will also impact the Channel & Catalina Islands, causing steep easterly seas to affect east facing harbors. In addition, these winds will affect the waters from Santa Cruz Island to San Nicolas Island today and possibly through early this week.
12/124 AM.
A long period west-northwest swell will bring advisory level surf to west facing beaches along the Central Coast (8 to 12 feet) thru 9 AM Tuesday. Elevated surf of 3 to 6 feet is expected for Ventura county west-facing beaches. Isolated surf up to 7 feet is possible at the Ventura Harbor during the afternoon & evening hours Today. See CFWLOX & SRFLOX for more details.
Ca, Wind Advisory remains in effect until 1 PM PST this afternoon for zones 88-355-358-362-369>372-374-375-378-379-381. (See LAXNPWLOX). High Surf Advisory in effect until 9 AM PST Tuesday for zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect until 4 PM PST this afternoon for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 2 PM PST Tuesday for zones 655-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
