03/221 AM.
Partly cloudy skies today will turn mostly clear by Wednesday. Otherwise it will be dry conditions with a general warming trend and periods of offshore winds through the week. Warmest and windiest conditions likely Friday-Sunday.
(tdy-Thu), 03/844 AM.
A rapidly weakening cold front pushing in from the northwest will bring a slight chance of showers to the Central Coast through this afternoon or evening. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected today with temperatures slightly below normal with widespread upper 60s to mid 70s.
A prolonged period (up to a week) of weak to moderate offshore flow (LAX-DAG pressure gradient peaking somewhere between -3 to -5 each morning) will set up in the wake of the system. Peak wind gusts of 20 to 40 mph will be common for interior mountains filtering down into coastal ranges (such as Santa Ynez and Santa Lucias), valleys and foothills at times through Thursday. This is mostly sub- advisory, although there is a 20 percent chance that low end advisories will be needed at times. A low end Santa Ana Wind event may materialize by Friday with early estimates placing widespread peak wind gusts in the 25 to 45 mph range (strongest in the mountains) and teetering on advisory levels within the typical Santa Ana cooridor.
Warming and drying trends will take hold by Thursday and likely continue into the weekend thanks to the offshore flow and a moderate ridge (peaking near 585 dm) building overhead. Moderate heat risk with targeted Heat Advisories may be needed near the coast as early as Friday. Widespread highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s are likely by Friday, warmest coasts to coastal valleys. Fire weather concerns will be on the rise during this period, however recent rains may somewhat dampen or delay this concern.
(Fri-Mon), 03/220 AM.
Friday and Saturday will have the strongest winds. Offshore flow at the sfc will increase to 3 to 4 mb. At the same time a ridge will nose into Nrn CA and bring some offshore upper level support to Srn CA. Hgts will be near 584 dam. It looks like there will be low end advisory gusts from a few miles either side of a line drawn from Santa Clarita down through Simi Valley and out through the Pt Mugu area. Skies will be clear through the period. 2 to 4 degrees of warming each day will bring max temps into the lower to mid 80s across almost all of the csts and vlys.
A large high hgt upper low develops under the ridge on Sunday and then swings to the east on Monday. This in of itself will not have too much of an effect on the SoCal weather. The most important change during this time will be the substantial weakening of the offshore flow. This along with slight hgt falls will bring 3 to 5 degrees of cooling over the 2 day period with Monday's highs still well above normal in the upper 70s to lower 80s across the csts and vlys.
Looking into the crystal ball the next chc of rain will be Wed/Thu the 11th or 12th.
03/1608z.
At 1600Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer. There was an elevated inversion between 6000 feet and 8000 feet. The top of this inversion had a temperature of 14 degrees Celsius.
For 18Z TAF package, moderate confidence in KPRB/KSBP/KSMX with a 20-30% chance of low MVFR CIGs 10Z-18Z.
For all other sites, high confidence in 18Z TAFs with VFR conditions expected through the period.
KLAX, High confidence in 18Z TAF as VFR conditions are expected to continue through the period. Any easterly wind component tonight is expected to remain below 6 knots.
KBUR, High confidence in 18Z TAF as VFR conditions are expected through the period.
03/808 AM.
For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Through tonight, high confidence in Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds developing across PZZ673/676, but remaining below SCA levels across PZZ670. For Wednesday through Friday, high confidence in combinations of SCA level winds and seas across all of the Outer Waters. On Saturday, SCA level winds are likely to continue while winds drop below SCA levels.
For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Through tonight, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. For Wednesday through Thursday, there is a 50-60% chance of SCA level winds in the afternoon and evening hours. For Friday through Saturday, there is a 20-30% chance of SCA level northeast winds, mainly in the afternoon and evening hours.
For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Through tonight, there is a 60-80% chance of SCA level winds across all of the southern Inner Waters. For Wednesday through Thursday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. For Friday through Saturday, there is a 20-30% chance of SCA level winds from Ventura south to Santa Monica in the night and morning hours.
Today through Thursday, the gusty winds will likely result in choppy, short-period, seas.
Ca, NONE. PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 AM PST Wednesday for zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 8 AM Wednesday to 8 AM PST Thursday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 AM PST Thursday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
