01/834 PM.
Dry conditions and rising temperatures are expected as a warming trend affects the area Monday through late in the week. Breezy offshore winds are expected through Wednesday, followed by stronger offshore winds Thursday and Friday, along with increasing heat.
(Sun-Wed), 01/704 PM.
***UPDATE***
We are finally at the conclusion for this system. Current SFC observations as of 6 PM show that the gusty post-frontal west winds are diminishing. Coastal locations gusted to 30-40 mph this afternoon - just below wind advisory levels. Subsidence is in the works evident by the satellite imagery loop showing a gradual decrease in cloud cover. There is some lingering clouds at 5,000 ft over some mountain locations, but those are expected to dissipate through the evening.
In general, the area that saw the most rain with this system was from Ventura-Oxnard to Point Mugu state park where radar estimates up to 1.5". The highest preliminary measurement was 1.38" at Oxnard Civic Center. Although coverage of higher totals was less impressive in LA county, some very isolated readings of over 1.5" were measured. See RRMLOX and RERLOX for more details.
Otherwise, The forecast remains on track.
***From Previous Discussion***
Monday and Tuesday will find the area under a ~585dam ridge between the exiting trough and the next wave that will affect California by Wednesday. Most of the guidance holds the precipitation from that system to our north, but it is possible that the north of San Luis Obispo County will see some rain. Ridging will return after that system exits to the east and it will likely remain until around the 10th.
The final band of showers with the current system is still producing some light rain in the Ventura and Los Angeles County mountains. Expect intermittent showers for a few more hours. Hourly rainfall rates are only about a tenth of an inch, so no major impacts are expected.
Dry and warmer weather will return Monday with slowly warming temperatures through the week thanks in part to some weak offshore flow. Some of the mountains will likely have some 20-30 mph gusts at times.
By Tuesday highs will generally be within a few degrees of normal. There will be a weak weather system moving into northern California Tuesday which is why the warming trend will be a slow one at least to start this week. A few of the ensemble solutions show a 5-15 percent chance for some light precip near the coastal border of SLO/Monterey County Tuesday evening but dry elsewhere.
Wednesday will balance increasing cloud cover with mild offshore flow and probably wind up with temperatures about what they were on Tuesday.
(Thu-Sun), 01/147 PM.
The offshore wind and gradual warming trend will continue in the long term from Thursday into the weekend. Offshore gradients are expected to increase late in the week and peak on Saturday at about a minus 4, which would lead to warmer temperatures and some gusty offshore winds, primarily in LA and Ventura Counties. The recent rains will mitigate some of the fire weather risk, but certainly not over the whole CWA.
Looking into the extended forecast, there is another trough dropping down the coast beginning around the Wednesday the 11st that ensembles suggest could bring the next rain to the CWA.
01/2341z.
At 2300Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor an inversion.
Overall, moderate to high confidence in 00Z TAF Package. Gusty west winds will gradually decrease through the late afternoon & early evening. VFR conditions expected at all sites through the forecast period.
KLAX, High confidence in TAF. VFR conditions will prevail. Good confidence in any east wind component remaining below 8 kt and likely under 6 kt.
KBUR, High confidence in VFR TAF, except moderate confidence in wind through 02/03Z.
01/829 PM.
High confidence in gusty NW winds across all of the waters will persist through around midnight, then diminishing through the next few hours. Seas are hazardous, meeting SCA levels for short period seas above 5 feet for all of the waters, around 6-7 feet at 7 seconds nearshore and 7-9 feet at 7-8 seconds in the outer waters. The SCA has been extended through 3 AM Monday at which time winds will have weakened for a few hours, allowing seas to subside.
The winds turn to the N on Monday and will likely stay below SCA- levels. There is a chance for another round of post-frontal winds on Tuesday and Wednesday, but likely a step below in strength compared to today. Finally, over portions of the outer waters, SCA winds may persist through Thursday or Friday.
Ca, Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Monday afternoon for zones 354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Monday for zones 645-650-655-670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
