06/322 AM.
Temperatures will remain near to slightly below normal through at least early next week as a series of low pressure systems move through the region. Low clouds and fog will cover most of the coast and valley locations through at least mid morning, clearing to near the beaches each afternoon. A warming trend is expected later next week.
(tdy-Tue), 06/203 PM.
Low pressure systems moving through the Pac NW will continue to keep temperatures on the cooler side across southwest California at least one more day. In fact, the marine layer is expected to deepen even further tonight, around 3500 feet in LA and 1500-2000 feet across the Central Coast. This is expected to delay the clearing for coast and valleys and lead to slightly cooler temperatures. Highs today across the inland areas are trending 5-10 degrees cooler than yesterday and expect at least a few more degrees of cooling Sunday.
We'll start to turn the corner Monday as high pressure starts to be build in from the west. The marine layer will begin to shrink with progressively earlier clearing times next week. Temperatures will be gradually warming as well, especially inland, but generally staying in the 80s in the valleys and 90s in the far interior.
One feature to keep an eye on is the expected return of Sundowners across southwest Santa Barbara County, peaking Monday and Tuesday evenings with gusts between 40 and 50 mph, mainly west of Goleta.
(Wed-Sat), 06/230 PM.
High pressure is expected to strengthen across the eastern Pacific and California at least through Wednesday. This will bring at least some warming to most areas, but definitely favoring the interior areas like the Antelope Valley and interior SLO and Santa Barbara Counties which will be mostly immune to any onshore influence. In those areas there is 60-80 percent chance of 100 degrees or higher by the end of next week. Coastal valleys will warming as well but the latest ensemble pressure gradients suggest at least a 5-7mb onshore flow each afternoon which should keep warmer valley highs in the low to mid 90s and Downtown LA and other intermediate areas between the coast and valleys in the in the 70s to lower 80s. Night and morning low clouds and fog are expected to be a daily occurrence across all coastal areas next week as well as most coastal valleys through at least mid week and possibly beyond depending on the strength of the high.
Sundowners are expected to weaken by Wednesday, but possibly returning next weekend.
06/1724z.
At 1630Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 2500 feet deep. The top of the inversion was 4400 feet with a temperature of 19 degrees Celsius.
For 18Z TAF package, high confidence in forecasts for KWJF, KWJF and KPRB. For all other sites, moderate confidence in forecasts due to uncertainties with behavior of the marine layer. Timing of flight category changes could be +/- 3 hours of current forecasts.
KLAX, Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. There is a 40% chance that MVFR CIGs do not scatter out this afternoon. No significant easterly wind component is expected.
KBUR, Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. Timing of flight category changes could be +/- 3 hours of current forecast.
06/110 PM.
For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Thursday, high confidence in a combination of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas. Additionally, there is a 60-80% chance of GALE force winds across PZZ670/673 through tonight and GALE WARNINGs are in effect for these areas. From Sunday through Wednesday, there will be a 20-30% chance of Gale force winds.
For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, high confidence in current forecast. Today through Wednesday, SCA level wind are expected, mainly in the afternoon and evening hours, with seas approaching SCA levels. On Thursday, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels.
For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. For a majority of the southern Inner Waters, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels through Thursday. The only exception will be the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel, where there is a 40-60% chance of SCA level winds Sunday through Tuesday, mainly in the late afternoon and evening hours.
Ca, NONE. PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Sunday for zones 645-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Sunday for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for zone 673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
