11/913 AM.
Gusty Santa Ana winds will continue into much of next week, mainly across Los Angeles and Ventura Counties. There will be a warming trend into next week with near record temperatures possible.
(tdy-Tue), 11/930 AM.
***UPDATE***
Strengthening offshore gradients are being countered by much weaker winds and cold air advection aloft. The result being an overall decrease in surface wind speeds but with still isolated gusts to around 60 mph in the most favored parts of LA/Ventura Counties. This trend will continue into Monday, by which time most areas may be well below advisory levels. Will make a determination on those this afternoon. In any case, light to locally moderate offshore winds are expected to continue to some degree over the next week in the same areas.
Meanwhile, high pressure will be building this week, creating a significant warming trend to all areas. 24 hour temperature changes this morning range from around 5 degrees to as high as 15 degrees over yesterday at this time. Thus, the forecast looks on track and not expecting any major changes this afternoon.
***From Previous Discussion***
A positive Pacific-North-American oscillation (PNA) will dominate our large-scale pattern likely for at least the next 7 days. Continuous troughing near the Aleutian islands and to the south will support persistent downstream ridging over the western CONUS. A positvely-tilted trough over these waters will amplify and become quite sharp over the next couple of days. This will allow heights to rise over the region especially by Tuesday.
Gradients will respond to this upper-level pattern accordingly. LAX-DAG values indicated by ECWMF ENS projections should start around -7mb this morning. Offshore flow from the northeast should gradually weaken through Tuesday evening to -3mb. LAX-BFL gradient is projected to increase a bit more this morning to -6mb, then is expected to gradually increase by Tuesday afternoon.
Considering these values the current wind products out until 1PM will likely be extended or replaced with a lower tier product such as an wind advisory. The day shift will make this determination. Please see LAXNPWLOX for current details regarding the products.
Max Temps should be warmer than yesterday. Coasts and Valleys in the uppers 60s to low 70s, and interior locations mid 50s to lower 60s. Some of the highest elevations could remain in the 40s. Expecting 2 to 5 degrees of warming each day. Max Temps on Tuesday are currently forecasted at 70s to 80s for coasts/valleys, and 60s to 70s for interior locations. Warmest across LA/VTA counties. Min Temps will also follow this warming pattern.
(Wed-Sat), 11/303 AM.
Light to moderate offshore flow with warm weather and clear skies is expected through the forecast period. Above normal heights will combine with these gradient values best on Wednesday and Thursday. Records for coast and valleys generally range from the mid 80s to low 90s during this period and could be challenged. In any case, highs will be around 10-15 degrees above normal most of the week. Upper-level support looks anemic during this period, but areas favored for northeast winds will likely be breezy overnight into the morning hours.
AI mdls indicate a small signal for rain after the 21th of Jan.
11/1831z.
At 18Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer.
High confidence in VFR TAFs.
Gusty northeasterly winds will generate light to occasional moderate turbulence and LLWS across the foothills and mountains.
KLAX, High confidence in TAF. There is a 10% chance of easterly winds reaching 8 knots 12Z-20Z.
KBUR, High confidence in TAF. There is a chance of light to moderate turbulence and LLWS through the period.
11/931 AM.
For the Outer Waters, high confidence in current forecast. Today through Thursday, winds and seas are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels from the Channel Islands northward. For the waters south of the Channel Islands, SCA level northeast winds are likely today through Monday with winds and seas expected to remain below SCA levels Tuesday through Thursday.
For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, high confidence in current forecast. For today, SCA level northeast wind are expected through this morning, mainly from Morro Bay northward, but will diminish below SCA levels this afternoon. For tonight through Thursday, winds and seas will remain below SCA levels.
For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. From Ventura southward to Santa Monica, SCA level winds are expected today through Monday with local Gale force gusts today from Point Mugu to Point Dume. For Monday night and Tuesday, there is a 40% chance of SCA level northeast winds from Ventura southward to Santa Monica. Otherwise, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels through Thursday.
The winds will cause choppy hazardous seas, especially farther from shore, and will persist each day through at least Tuesday. Winds will be the strongest winds in the late night through morning hours, especially this morning. The winds will also impact the Channel & Catalina Islands, causing steep easterly seas to affect east facing harbors. In addition, these winds will affect the waters from Santa Cruz Island to San Nicolas Island today and possibly through early this week.
Ca, Wind Advisory remains in effect until 1 PM PST this afternoon for zones 88-354-355-358-362-370>372-374-376>378-381. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect until 1 PM PST this afternoon for zone 369. (See LAXNPWLOX). High Wind Warning remains in effect until 1 PM PST this afternoon for zones 375-379-380. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect until 11 AM PST this morning for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PST this afternoon for zones 650-655-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
