31/220 AM.
Warm and dry conditions can be expected through most of next week. There will be some coastal low clouds and fog, but otherwise, skies will remain mostly clear. There will be gusty north winds through tonight and gusty onshore winds through most of next week.
(tdy-Wed), 31/1113 AM.
Another round of Sundowners is expected this evening. However, winds are likely to be weaker. Isolated gusts could reach 45 mph such as at Gaviota. These stronger winds will be too localized and short-duration to warrant a wind advisory (20% chance). There is likely to be another uptick of winds late this evening into the overnight period across the I-5 corridor, but gusts will remain well below advisory levels (20 to 30 mph).
500mb heights and onshore flow will gradually increase through the period. Marine layer stratus will increase in coverage Monday and Tuesday. Good confidence by Tuesday that low clouds will cover much of the Oxnard plain and the Santa Barbara-Montecito area. Low confidence whether low clouds will reach portions of the San Fernando Valley - this will depend on the strength of the Catalina Eddy. Some ECWMF ensemble members show a -2.0 mb SBA-SAN pressure gradient which would indicate a moderately strength eddy. For now, have introduced low clouds in the forecast due to additional supporting factors. General consensus among guidance that stratus should dissipate keeping late mornings and afternoons (and evenings for many areas) mostly clear.
Winds will likely remain below advisory levels thru this period. Stronger than normal sea breeze across the west facing beach and near shore areas is expected.
Csts/vlys should cool a couple degrees Monday and a few degrees on Tuesday. The most significant cooling will occur along the central coast on Tuesday (about 6 degrees) - due to stronger sea breeze and a deeper marine layer. Max Temps will fall below normal on Tuesday. Far interior locations will warm 2 to 4 degrees Monday, and locally up to 6 degrees across the Carrizo plain. Temperatures should be fairly similar on Tuesday and will remain about 3 to 6 degrees above normal.
(Thu-Sun), 31/1237 PM.
A small ridge will nose into the area from the west on Wed and Thu and hgts will rise to about 586 dam. In combination, with relaxing pressure gradients from the north indicated by LAX-BFL ECWMF projections approaching 0-1mb - this will result in the warmest days across the area. Wednesday will be a bit warmer due to some cold air advection on Thursday. Max Temp departures look to average in the 8-12 degrees above normal range across the far interior on Wednesday. Will continue to refine temperatures as we get closer.
There is a 30-50% chance of advisory level winds across interior portions Wednesday evening. This includes: Salinas Valley, I-5 corridor, & western Santa Ynez mtn range. Stronger than normal sea breeze will also be present through the long term due to persistent onshore pressure gradients.
Night through morning low clouds are expected across the csts through the period. The vlys will likely wake up to stratus on Saturday and Sunday. Some beaches may struggle to clear on Fri, Sat, and possibly on Sunday. This is due to moderate to strong onshore flow combined with decreasing heights as an upper low swings across the PACNW Friday into the weekend. This will result in temperatures 3 to 6 degrees below normal for most areas Saturday into Sunday.
31/1954z.
At 19Z at KLAX, there was a 1800 ft marine layer with an inversion to 3500 ft at 18 C.
High confidence in KPMD, KWJF, and KPRB.
Moderate confidence elsewhere. Where IFR/MFR cigs are forecast there is a 20-30 percent chance that VFR conds prevail with a 20-30 percent chance of IFR/MVFR cigs/vsbys where they are not forecast.
KLAX, Moderate confidence with a 20 percent chance of IFR cigs/vsbys as early as 06Z. High confidence that any east winds will stay under 8 knots.
KBUR, Moderate confidence with a 20 percent chance of IFR cigs/vsbys 10Z-17Z.
31/205 AM.
For the Outer Waters from the Central Coast to San Nicolas Island, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. High confidence in a combination of at least Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas through much of the coming week, initially through mid morning Monday. After a relative lull, SCA winds are likely to return Tuesday through Thursday, with a 40% chance of Gale force winds Wednesday night.
For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. SCA winds are expected again this afternoon and evening, with a 30% chance that they will continue through midnight. After a relative lull, winds will increase to SCA levels again Tuesday night through Thursday night, with a 30% chance of Gales Wednesday night.
For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. There is a 60% chance of SCA winds over the western half of the Santa Barbara channel this afternoon and evening. There will be another chance of SCA winds Wednesday night.
All waters will see choppy seas due to the winds in the region, especially in the afternoon and overnight hours.
Ca, High Surf Advisory in effect until 10 PM PDT this evening for zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening for zones 645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 AM PDT Monday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
