16/1232 PM.
Near to slightly below normal temperatures are expected to continue this weekend with low clouds and fog lingering into the afternoon across coast and some valleys south of Pt Conception. Gusty winds are expected at times along the Central Coast, and across the mountains and deserts through the weekend, strongest today. Hazardous seas will affect the coastal waters over the next several days. Warmer temperatures are expected next week.
(tdy-Tue), 16/110 PM.
The forecast through early next week remains largely unchanged. Still expecting the strongest north to northwest winds to occur tonight into Sunday morning and wind warnings are in effect for most mountain areas, the Antelope Valley, and southwest Santa Barbara County.
A deep marine layer between 2000 and 3000 feet will continue through Sunday across the LA/Ventura County coast and valleys and possibly sneaking into southeast Santa Barbara County. Some patchy low clouds are possible along the Central Coast later tonight as well. Clearing was a little more effective today as the inversion weakens due to cooler air aloft and expect the same result Sunday. Overall a very similar day as today with temperatures 4-8 degrees below normal in most areas.
Moving into next week a warming trend is expected as high pressure out over the Pacific extends its influence over the West coast in the form of rising heights aloft. In addition, beginning Monday there will be sharp decrease in onshore flow due to rising surface pressures over the Great Basin. In fact, most of the ensemble solutions indicate anywhere from 1-3mb offshore by late Monday morning which will naturally weaken the onshore flow and boost temperatures several degrees. Similar trends for Tuesday as well, leading to highs near 90 in the warmer valleys close lower 80s in Downtown LA and other areas more than 10-15 miles away from the coast. The offshore flow will be accompanied by some light northeast winds aloft, but most likely not strong enough for any wind advisories. Current forecast temperatures for Mon/Tue are likely a few degrees too cool if the light offshore flow comes to fruition but will make adjustments later if there is more confidence in the pattern.
(Wed-Sat), 16/107 PM.
Wednesday is expected to be warmest day for coast and valleys before offshore flow weakens, then turns onshore Thursday and increasing through next weekend. Warmest valley areas should reach the mid 90s while intermediate areas between the beach and the valleys will be in the low to mid 80s.
From Wednesday into next weekend models are showing weakening high pressure aloft and gradients gradually turning back to a standard moderate to strong onshore flow pattern which likely would bring a return of the marine layer and much cooler temperatures.
16/1745z.
At 1621Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 3400 ft deep. The top of the inversion was at 5300 ft with a temperature of 15 C.
For desert airfields (KPMD & KWJF), gusty west winds are expected to reach 30-40kts. Strongest for KWJF where MVFR VSBYs 3-5SM with BLDU is possible (30-40% chance) through this afternoon.
Moderate confidence in remaining TAFs. Timing of FM groups could be off +/- 2 hours from current forecast.
KLAX, Moderate confidence in TAF. Timing of FM groups could be off +/- 2 hours from current forecast. There is a 50% chance that east wind component reaches 7-8kts from 10Z-16Z Sunday.
KBUR, Moderate confidence in TAF. No wind issues expected.
16/121 PM.
Dangerous sea conditions will continue through the weekend. These conditions could capsize or damage small and large vessels. Mariners should adjust plans NOW to remain in safe harbor.
GALE WARNINGS are in effect for the inner waters along the Central Coast, all the outer waters, and the Santa Barbara Channel this weekend. Please refer to MWWLOX for further details.
For the outer waters from the Central Coast to San Nicolas Island, high confidence forecast. Widespread, high-end, STRONG GALES will continue through the weekend. Local gusts may reach STORM FORCE late this afternoon into evening. The Gale Force winds will diminish overnight Sunday, then Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds will continue into late Monday night, with a 20% chance of lingering through Tuesday. As for seas, SCA level seas will continue to build through the weekend, becoming large 10-18 foot steep seas, then diminishing throughout Monday and Monday night.
For the inner waters along the Central Coast, high-end, STRONG GALE FORCE level winds are expected through Sunday evening. Winds will then drop below Gale force and even SCA levels overnight Sunday. As for seas, SCA level seas will continue through the weekend and could linger into Monday afternoon or early evening.
For the inner waters south of Point Conception, GALE WARNING remains in effect for the Santa Barbara Channel through late night, with a moderate risk of GALE FORCE winds again Sunday afternoon and evening. These winds will be strongest across western and southern portions of the channel.
For the southern inner waters adjacent to the L.A. Coast, SCA conditions are expected this afternoon through Sunday morning. Highest seas and strongest winds expected across western portion. Localized GALE Force wind gusts are possible this evening near Anacapa Island.
Ca, High Surf Advisory in effect until 9 AM PDT Monday for zones 340-346-354. (See LAXCFWLOX). Wind Advisory remains in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening for zones 340-341-346>348. (See LAXNPWLOX). Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Monday morning for zones 349-350. (See LAXCFWLOX). High Wind Warning remains in effect until 9 AM PDT Sunday for zones 349-351>353-376>378. (See LAXNPWLOX). Beach Hazards Statement in effect from 6 PM PDT this evening through Monday morning for zones 362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). High Wind Warning remains in effect until 11 PM PDT Sunday for zones 381-383. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory remains in effect from noon to 11 PM PDT Sunday for zone 382. (See LAXNPWLOX). Red Flag Warning in effect until 10 PM PDT this evening for zones 381-383. (See LAXRFWLOX). PZ, Gale Warning in effect until 9 PM PDT Sunday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect until 5 AM PDT Sunday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 AM PDT Sunday for zone 655. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
