07/728 PM.
Warm and dry conditions with sunny skies are expected into early next week, though offshore winds will weaken slightly each day going forward. A noticeable cooling trend will start Thursday, falling to near normal by Friday. Rain is likely at some point between late this week and early the following week.
(Sat-Tue), 07/910 PM.
Weak to moderate Santa Ana winds will continue overnight and each morning into mid week. The upper level wind support has slide south of the area, so winds will be driven only by offshore surface pressure gradients, which are forecasted to be around 3-4mb. Expect wind gusts of around 25 to 40 mph in the wind prone corridor of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties and across the Santa Lucia Mountains along the Central Coast. The rather persistent wind pattern will maintain the warm temperatures for the coasts and valleys, expect widespread 80s which is around 10 degrees above seasonal normals. Dry conditions and sunny skies will also continue, and as a result overnight temperatures in non- windy areas across the interior will cool to the 30s and 40s overnight. On the flip side, windy location and coastal areas will stay warm overnight, with the warmest foothill areas in the upper 60s.
(Wed-Sat), 07/917 PM.
Wednesday temperatures will remain warm with clear skies, as weak offshore flow will persist one more day. Starting Thursday, onshore flow will increase and 500 mb heights are favored to plummet as a trough approaches the region. Temperatures are expected to fall to near normal by Friday with widespread highs in the the 70s.
As for the potential upcoming storm, there is a high likelihood of some amount of rain between the 12th and the 17th (and possibly beyond). Forecast models are struggling to resolve how the broad ridge this week will break down, allowing for one or more troughs of low pressure to shuttle moisture and instability into the region. The is the chance for a significant storm system with periods of heavy rainfall (1+ inches possible for the storm total rainfall), though some model solutions indicate minimal rain totals. Forecast model trends have been pushing the bulk of rain the farther out in time, and rain totals have generally been trending slightly higher with each update. Clarity on the time period when rain will be the most likely is increasing, latest models runs highlighting Sunday into the following Tuesday (Nov 15-17th). Please keep following the forecasts for future updates.
08/0558z.
At 2240Z at KLAX, there was a sfc-based inversion with a top at 1300 ft and a temperature of 24 degrees Celsius.
High confidence in TAFs.
KLAX, High confidence in TAF. No significant easterly wind component is expected.
KBUR, High confidence in TAF.
07/718 PM.
For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Tonight through Tuesday, high confidence in a combination of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas. For Wednesday and Thursday, there is a 20-30% chance of SCA level seas.
For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Tonight through Sunday, there is a 30-40% chance of a combination of SCA level winds and seas. For Monday through Tuesday, there is a 60-80% chance of SCA level seas and a 40-50% chance of SCA level winds. For Wednesday and Thursday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels.
For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Tonight and Sunday, there is a 20-30% chance of SCA level northeast winds nearshore from Point Mugu to Santa Monica. Otherwise, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels for the southern Inner Waters through Thursday.
07/719 PM.
High tides will build each morning and peak Sunday and Monday at 7.2 to 7.6 feet (MLLW). Meanwhile, a west to northwest swell will slowly build into the area, peaking on Monday. This combination of high tides and high surf will bring hazardous swimming conditions, dangerous conditions on rock jetties, and a risk for moderate coastal flooding. If you are in the coastal areas, listen to advice from your local officials.
With the daily high tides changing only a little through Tuesday, the risk for coastal flooding will peak when the surf peaks on Monday. This coastal flooding event will differ in several ways from the past episodes this year. First, while tides will be high, they will not be nearly as high as the record breaking tides from last week. This means that the impacts to harbor areas and Naples Island will generally be minor compared to last week. Shallow flooding should be expected, especially for low-lying walkways, but of a lesser degree less in severity and coverage. Second, for the beach-side coastal areas, the swell is from the west to northwest and not from the south, which characterized the coastal flooding episodes of September and early October. This means that areas hit hard in those events, like Long Beach and Malibu, are less at risk with this upcoming event. For west-facing shores however, the risk is much higher than events in the recent past. Areas like Oceano and Cayucos on the Central Coast, and Ventura on the southern coasts, have elevated risks of moderate coastal flooding. Moderate coastal flooding impacts include things like flooded sandy beach areas, moderate beach erosion, as well as shallow flooding of beach parking lots and bike paths. Isolated damage is unlikely but cannot be ruled out especially considering the extent of beach erosion we have already seen - which limits the natural protective buffer between the ocean and coastal infrastructure.
For the Central Coast, a High Surf Advisory and Coastal Flood Advisory will be in effect through Monday, since the peak of the surf is earlier compared to other areas. For all other coasts, a Beach Hazards Statement will be in effect through Tuesday, with a key note that some areas (especially Ventura County) may need to be upgraded to a Coastal Flood and/or High Surf Advisory around Monday when the surf peaks. A decision on the potential upgrades is likely tonight.
Ca, Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Tuesday morning for zones 87-349-350-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). Coastal Flood Advisory in effect until 10 PM PST Monday for zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX). High Surf Advisory in effect until 10 PM PST Monday for zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Tuesday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
