Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard Ca

249 am PDT Sat apr 25 2026

Synopsis

25/1205 AM.

Cooler weather is expected over the weekend with scattered light showers, mainly this afternoon and evening. Dry weather is then expected for most areas Sunday and Monday. Below normal temperatures will continue through the middle of next week with another weak storm possible around late Tuesday or Wednesday.

Short Term

(tdy-Mon), 25/1205 AM.

A little upper low with 555 dam central hgts will zip into SLO county late this morning and then pass through Kern county during the afternoon. This system is neither very wet or dynamic, but will likely bring some light rain to almost all of the area this afternoon and/or evening. Rain will likely be off and on during this period. The best chc of rain will be over the mtns and foothills. Rainfall totals will not be impressive. Most of the area will only see a tenth of an inch of rain. The mtns and foothills will be a little wetter where around a quarter inch of rain is possible. Gusty SW winds will affect the mtns and the interior later this afternoon. It will be cloudy day as a combination of low mid and high clouds moves over the forecast area. 5 to 10 degrees of cooling will bring max temps across the csts/vlys down into the 60s.

Fairly strong SW to W winds will continue across the Antelope Vly and its foothills this evening. There is a about a 40 percent chc of the gusts reaching advisory levels of 45 mph. The chc of rain will diminish to only a slight chc as the evening turns to night and the storm moves further to the east.

There will be minimal threat of some morning showers on Sunday just in cast the system moves out a little slower than expected. Otherwise, the day will be dry with decreasing clouds. Most areas will see 1 to 2 degrees of warming but the the Antelope Vly and nrn mtns will cool a bit as a cold pool of air will linger.

Weak troffing will cover the state on Monday and hgts will be a below normal 564 dam. Skies will start out partly cloudy, but will turn mostly sunny by early afternoon. The extra sunshine will bring about 2 to 4 degrees of warming. Despite this warming max temps will end up 4 to 8 locally 10 degrees blo normal with max temps only in the mid 60s to lower 70s across the csts/vlys.

Long Term

(Tue-Fri), 25/243 AM.

Benign weather on tap for Monday as the weekend storm pulls further to the east and a weak ridge moves in from the west. Skies will be, at worst, partly cloudy. 2 to 4 degrees of warming will bring cst/vly max temps into the upper 60s and lower 70s.

Still not the best mdl agreement but there is definite improvement. The trend to lesser chances of rain continues as well as pushing the timing back. Now Wednesday looks dry with only a bare minimum chc of light rain Wednesday night and/or Thursday morning. And even if it does rain, rainfall amounts will be insignificant Skies will be partly cloudy for the most part with a chc for mostly cloudy conds with the rain chances. Look for clearing skies and warming Friday as a ridge builds into the state.

Max temps will rise Tue, Wed and Fri with only minimal cooling on Thursday. Friday's max temps will be 3 to 6 degrees above normal with vly highs reaching into the lower to mid 80s.

Aviation

25/0948z.

At 0835Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1200 ft deep. The top of the inversion was 1900 ft with a temp of 14 C.

Moderate confidence in TAFs. BKN-OVC MVFR to Low VFR conds will develop at all non desert sites and continue through the day. Ocnl light rain is likely from 22Z onward for most sites.

KLAX, Moderate confidence in TAF. Cigs will likely vary between 025 and 040 through the day. On and off again rail will affect the complex aft 22Z. No significant east wind component expected.

KBUR, Moderate confidence in TAF. Cigs will likely vary between 025 and 040 through the day. On and off again rail will affect the complex aft 22Z. There is a 20 percent chc of -RA aft 18Z.

Marine

25/130 AM.

For the Outer Waters, high confidence in current forecast. Across the waters south of Point Conception, especially near the Channel Islands, SCA winds will likely persist through tonight. Winds could drop below advisory levels at times this morning. From this afternoon through Monday, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels. Chances for SCA level winds will increase from Tuesday onward.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. High confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels through Sunday. Chances for SCA winds will increase each day next week.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Increased confidence in SCA winds across SB channel this afternoon and evening. SCA condtions may also occur across the waters south of Point Mugu. On Sunday, onshore W winds will flirt with advisory levels especially nearshore during the afternoon into early evening hours. Slight chance for SCA level winds early next week focused across the usually favored waters with increasing chances Wednesday and Thursday.

A weak system will bring spotty showers across the coastal waters later this morning and into the evening with a slight chc of them lingering into Sunday morning.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Ca, NONE. PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT early this morning for zones 650-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 1 PM this afternoon to 2 AM PDT Sunday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).

Visit this site often? Consider supporting us with a $10 contribution.
Learn more