29/1227 PM.
Quiet weather with near seasonal temperatures will prevail the rest of the week. Breezy west to northwest winds will occur across portions of the area at times. Light rain showers are possible late Sunday into Monday.
(Wed-Sat), 29/844 PM.
***UPDATE***
The region saw about 2-7 degrees of warming under high pressure and sunny skies. Expecting an expansion of marine layer clouds and patchy fog through the week, with some areas of breezy northerly winds developing in the afternoon to evening hours. Winds look somewhat stronger Thursday evening however, and may need wind advisories for the western portions of the Santa Barbara south coast and Santa Ynez Range. Increased coverage of low clouds and fog for the evening to overnight hours for the next few days, but otherwise the current forecast looks on track.
***From Previous Discussion***
A very quiet weather pattern is expected through at least Saturday as the first of a couple cut off lows moves through the region. Not expecting any rainfall with this one as most of the moisture is well to the south, but could see some mid and high clouds at times on Thursday as well as increasing marine layer stratus in the next couple mornings, including into some of the coastal valleys. Some of the low clouds could linger along the beaches into the afternoon, especially from Malibu to Ventura. Temperatures warmed 2-5 degrees overall today but for the next few days either no change or maybe 1-2 degrees of warming for inland areas.
(Sun-Wed), 29/109 PM.
Significant cooling is expected Sunday, especially for valleys and interior areas, as the second of the upper lows drops south along the West coast and onshore flow increases. A few of the ensemble solutions show some light showers developing along the Central Coast as early as Sunday afternoon, but a better chance Sunday night, with chances spreading into Ventura and LA Counties on Monday. Like with the last system, rain amounts will be highest (but still mostly under a quarter inch) along the Central Coast and far south and east LA County where there is the best orographics to squeeze out as much as possible from this relatively weak system where PW's are well under an inch.
Assuming the timing of that last cut off is on track, Tuesday and Wednesday are expected to be dry with 2-5 degrees of warming each day. But can't rule out a delayed arrival of the second system that could delay the warming trend by another day.
30/0420z.
At 0400Z at KLAX, the marine inversion was 1000 feet deep. The top of the inversion was 2400 feet with a temperature of 16 degrees Celsius.
For 06Z TAF package, high confidence in valley and desert TAFs, as well as KSBA, as CAVU conditions are expected through the period.
For other coastal sites, moderate confidence in 06Z TAF forecasts. Timing of arrival of CIG/VSBY restrictions, as well category changes, could be +/- 4 hours of current forecasts.
KLAX, Moderate confidence in 06Z TAF. Timing of arrival of CIG and VSBY restrictions could be +/- 4 hours of current 09Z forecast with timing of dissipation of restrictions +/- 1 hour of 17Z forecast. There is a 30% chance that CIG/VSBY restrictions do not develop. No significant easterly wind component is expected.
KBUR, High confidence in 06Z TAF as CAVU conditions are expected through the period. There is a 10-15% chance of MVFR/IFR conditions 11Z-15Z.
29/755 PM.
Moderate to high confidence in Small Craft Advisory (SCA) W-NW winds across the outer waters through late Thursday night. Moderate confidence that conds will then remain near but below SCA levels Friday through Saturday, with winds likely decreasing further on Sunday and Monday.
For the inner waters along the Central Coast, SCA winds are likely each afternoon and evening through Thursday, and just below SCA levels Friday afternoon and evening. This will be followed by lighter winds through the weekend and into Monday.
For the Santa Barbara Channel, winds just below SCA level are likey this evening, with SCA winds likely Thursday afternoon and evening before diminishing later Thursday night. Winds over the western portion of the channel should be just below SCA levels Friday afternoon and evening, otherwise lighter winds can be expected through the weekend into Monday.
For the southern inner waters, winds may approach SCA levels at times Thursday evening and again Sunday evening, otherwise conds will remain below SCA through Monday night.
Ca, NONE. PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday for zones 645-670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from noon Thursday to 3 AM PDT Friday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
