03/236 AM.
Warm and dry conditions can be expected through most of this week. There will be plenty of morning low clouds and fog across most of the coasts and many valley areas, but otherwise skies will remain mostly clear. Northerly winds will affect areas of southern CA tonight.
(tdy-Fri), 03/240 AM.
A 1600 ft deep marine layer, onshore flow and a weak eddy have all teamed up to bring low clouds much of the csts and some of the vlys. At the same time a ridge is nosing into the middle of the state from the north and in addition to creating rising hgts it is also bring northerly flow to the area. This northerly flow will bring an earlier clearing of the low clouds to many areas this morning. The sunny afternoon skies, northerly flow and rising hgts will bring 3 to 6 locally 8 degrees of warming to all areas today. Vly temps will reach the mid 80s to lower 90s this afternoon or 3 to 6 degrees above normal.
The northerly flow will peak tonight and advisory level gusts are likely (70-80 percent chc) across the western portion of the SBA south cst and portions of the I-5 corridor.
There is a fairly tricky low cloud forecast Thursday morning as a decently strong eddy competes with the offshore flow from the north. The eddy will likely bring low clouds to the coasts of LA and VTA counties and portions of western SBA county. The north flow, however, will keep the vlys, the SBA south coast and SLO county cloud free. Max temps will not change much with all areas experiencing above normal temps save for the beaches which will end up a few degrees under normals due to the strong onshore flow in the afternoon.
No eddy is forecast for Friday morning and there will not be enough oomph to lift the low clouds into the vlys. Onshore flow to the north and east will allow low clouds to cover most if not all of the coastal areas. The ridge breaks down and this along with the strong afternoon onshore flow will cool most areas by 2 to 4 degrees.
(Sat-Tue), 03/236 AM.
Troffing and mdt-stg onshore flow will dominate the xtnd period. This will bring very June like conditions to the area on all 4 days. Onshore flow will be strongest over the weekend and the low clouds will penetrate deep into the vlys and will likely not clear at all from many beach and nearshore areas while the rest of the csts/vlys see slower than normal clearing. 3 to 5 degrees of cooling Saturday will be followed by 1 to 3 additional degrees on Sunday. Sunday's max temps will end up in the upper 60s to mid 70s across the csts and a degree or 2 either side of 80 in the vlys. These max temps are mostly 2 to 4 degrees blo normal.
The onshore flow relaxes some on Mon and Tue and this will bring earlier clearing times for the marine layer stratus as well as a few degrees of warming each day.
03/0948z.
At 0832Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1600 feet deep. The top of the inversion was near 4000 feet with a temperature of 22 C.
High confidence in VFR TAFs for KPMD, KWJF, and KPRB.
Moderate confidence in remaining TAFs due to uncertainty in cigs timing. VFR transition could be off by -1 hour or + 90 minutes. Cig hgts could be off by +/- 200 ft.
KLAX, Moderate confidence in TAF. VFR conds may not arrive until 21Z. Cigs may rise to 018 by 15Z. No significant east wind component expected.
KBUR, Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 20 percent chc of no low clouds. VFR conds could arrive anytime as early as 15Z.
03/205 AM.
For the Outer Waters from the Central Coast to San Nicolas Island, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. GALE WARNINGS have been issued starting this afternoon through Thursday morning. Winds will be the strongest across the northern waters (gusts to 40 kt). Seas will peak 12-15 ft during this timeframe. There is a 30-40% chance that Gales may linger Thursday afternoon through Saturday across the northern waters. Otherwise, SCA conditions (winds and/or seas) are likely to persist through the weekend.
For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Winds will increase to SCA levels early this afternoon, with a 70% chance of Gales by late afternoon into late night hours. Otherwise, SCA winds are likely to persist through Thursday evening. After decreasing some Friday, winds may increase to SCA levels again Saturday, and seas will hover near advisory levels across the western portion.
For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. There is a 50 percent chance of SCA winds Wednesday late afternoon and evening, and again Thursday, and Sunday across the western portion of the Santa Barbara Channel.
Ca, Wind Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT early this morning for zones 349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ, Gale Warning in effect from noon today to 11 PM PDT this evening for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 11 PM this evening to 9 PM PDT Thursday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until noon PDT today for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect from noon today to 9 AM PDT Thursday for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 9 AM to 9 PM PDT Thursday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 6 PM PDT this evening for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM PDT Thursday for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
