24/846 AM.
Temperatures will be near normal today, with a cooling trend over the weekend as a weak storm crosses the area. The storm will bring scattered light showers to the region on Saturday. Dry weather is then expected most areas Sunday and Monday. Below normal temperatures will continue through the middle of next week with another weak storm possible around late Tuesday or Wednesday.
(tdy-Sun), 24/908 AM.
***UPDATE***
Minimal, if any, impactful weather today with partly cloudy skies and temperatures within a few degrees of normal in most areas. Some breezy conditions near the coast in the afternoon and evening but below advisory levels.
Still looking at a decent chance of light showers Saturday, though uncertain of timing (probably after noon south of Pt Conception) and some areas may just get some sprinkles and no measurable rain. Winds aloft are mostly from the west with this event so that's not a favorable pattern for rain for areas south of Pt Conception, particularly from southeast SB County to western LA County due to the downsloping created by the Transverse range. In any case, amounts are going to be light, under a quarter inch in all areas and most areas under a tenth.
***From Previous Discussion***
A small trof will move in and through SLO county and then over Kern county on Saturday. It will bring enough clouds to make it a mostly cloudy day. It does not have enough moisture and/or dynamics to make it much of a threat. Still, most areas will likely see some periods of light rain through the day. Rainfall amounts for the day and evening will mostly be a tenth of an inch or less with up to a quarter inch in some mtn locations. Gusty southwest to west winds will develop later Saturday, strongest in the Antelope Valley with gusts to around 45 mph. Max temps will plummet with all of the clouds and light rain. Look for 4 to 8 degrees of cooling with max temps only in the 60s for the csts/vlys.
There is a 20 percent chc of some lingering morning showers Sunday morning provided the system moves a little slower than the preponderance of mdl guidance indicates. In the afternoon it will be dry with clearing skies save for some clouds and a slight chc of showers over the far eastern San Gabriels. It will remain cool with highs in the 60s.
(Mon-Thu), 24/334 AM.
The bottom of a weak pos tilt trof will cover most of the state on Monday and Tuesday. The weather will be pretty benign. Max temps will rise 1 or 2 degrees each day. Even with the warming max temps will end up 3 to 6 degrees below normal.
Mdls remain confused for the potential system late Tuesday or Wednesday. This looks to be a weak system with really only a 20 percent chc of rain. Really the only wet mdl is the GFS which is the only mdl that generates a closed low. If it does rain, rainfall amounts, if any, under a tenth of an inch. Max temps will end up mostly mid 60s to the mid 70s.
Ridging looks likely for Thu and Fri with 2 to 4 degrees of warming slated for each day.
24/1718z.
At 1630Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor marine inversion.
Overall, moderate confidence in 18Z TAF Package. VFR conditions are generally expected through the evening. After midnight thru end of fcst pd, CIGs 020-035 are likely at coastal and valley sites. Timing could be off +/- 3 hours.
KLAX, Moderate confidence in TAF. MVFR CIGs 020-025 expected around 25/11Z (+/- 2 hours). Likely to lift to 030-035 by late morning. No significant east wind component expected.
KBUR, Moderate confidence in TAF. VFR conditions expected through this evening. MVFR CIGs 025-030 likely to develop late tonight into early morning hours. Low confidence on timing (+/- 3 hours). 20% chance VFR conditions (VFR ceilings) prevail thru fcst pd. No wind issues expected.
24/748 AM.
For the Outer Waters, high confidence in current forecast. Across the waters north of Point Conception, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds will diminish below advisory levels by late this morning. Across the waters south of Point Conception, especially near the Channel Islands, SCA winds will likely persist through Saturday night. Winds could drop below advisory levels at times Friday morning. From Saturday afternoon through Monday, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels. Chances for SCA level winds will increase from Tuesday onward.
For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Localized SCA winds are possible this afternoon and evening. Otherwise, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels through Sunday. Chances for SCA winds will increase each day next week.
For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. SCA level W winds are expected later this afternoon through late tonight focused across western portion of the Santa Barbara Channel and near the Channel Islands. There is a 30% chance of SCA winds across SB channel Saturday afternoon and evening. On Sunday, onshore W winds will flirt with advisory levels especially nearshore during the afternoon into early evening hours. Slight chance for SCA level winds early next week focused across the usually favored waters with increasing chances Wednesday and Thursday.
A weak system will bring spotty showers across the coastal waters Saturday and Saturday night. This activity may linger into Sunday morning.
Ca, NONE. PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Saturday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
