30/1000 PM.
Temperatures will cool further Tuesday and will end up closer to normal for the first time in a while. Similar temperatures will continue through Thursday. Gusty onshore winds will affect the area at times. There is a slight chance of light rain Tuesday and Tuesday night. Moderate to strong offshore winds with significant warming and drying will follow Friday through Sunday.
(tdy-Thu), 31/714 AM.
***UPDATE***
No changes to previous forecast thinking. It will feel almost chilly out there today compared to the recent heat with temperatures a few degrees below normal with light rain likely.
Wind will be the main impact this week although transition towards heat this weekend. Friday and Saturday may be the highest wind impact days when more widespread winds make it into higher populated areas with a moderate Santa Ana with advisory level winds probable.
***From Previous Discussion***
Moderate onshore flow and a 1600 ft deep marine layer have combined to bring plenty of low clouds to the csts and vlys. Higher above the low clouds is a thick plume of mid and high clouds that will ensure that today is a cloudy one. A weak trof will move into and through the state today. It will bring a 60 percent chc of rain to the Central Coast and a about a 40 percent chc of rain south of Pt Conception today. Rainfall amount through the afternoon should not total more than a tenth of an inch. Coastal temps will not change much today, but the combination of onshore flow, falling hgts and cloudy skies will cool the vlys 4 to 8 degrees and the mtns and interior by 8 to 12 degrees. For the first time since early in the month most max temps will end up a few degrees blo normal.
A second impulse will keep rain in the forecast for tonight with most areas seeing a 50 to 60 percent chc of rain. Rainfall amounts again will be under a tenth of an inch.
Drier NW flow will move into the Wednesday. Can't rule out a stray shower in the morning, but it will be a predominantly a dry day will clearing skies. There will be gusty westerly winds across the Antelope Vly and its western foothills. The extra afternoon sunshine will allow for a 2 to 3 degree warm up across most of the area.
The NW flow will continue on Thursday. Skies will be mostly sunny. There may be enough mid level moisture to bring an isolated mtn shower. The gusty winds will continue across the Antelope Vly and with a 7.2 mb onshore push the east there may be advisory level gusts. Max temps will be similar across the csts/vlys. Some cool air advection from the San Joaquin Vly will bring 3 to 6 degrees of cooling across the far interior.
(Fri-Mon), 31/243 AM.
A weak ridge will build into the area on Friday. At the sfc high pressure will build into the Great Basin and set up offshore flow. A Santa Ana wind event will develop as well as a NE wind event across the Central Coast. It looks like there will be just enough upper support to create low end advisory level gusts in the morning. Sunny skies, rising hgts and the offshore winds will all combine to bring 4 to 8 degrees of warming. This will bring most cst and vly highs into the mid 70s to lower 80s.
Ridging and offshore flow will continue through the weekend. The offshore push will weaken as will the upper support. So while there will be some morning NE winds they will likely not reach advisory criteria. Temperatures will respond with about 6 degrees of warming on Saturday and another 1 to 2 degrees on Sunday. Max temps will be 6 to 12 degrees above normal both days with highs in the 80s across the csts and vlys.
The ridge breaks down on Monday. Onshore flow returns as well and this will bring 3 to 6 degrees of cooling to most areas. Max temps, however, will remain above normal.
Both the AI-GFS and AI-EC so no real rain chances in the day 8 to 14 outlook period.
31/1152z.
At 0825Z over KLAX, the marine layer was 1600 ft deep. The top of the inversion was at 3000 feet with a temperature of 18 C.
Moderate confidence in TAFs (High confidence in TAFs for KPMD and KWJF). MVFR cigs are possible at all sites through 22Z. There is a 60 percent chc of -SHRA north of Pt Conception and a 20 percent chc south.
KLAX, Moderate confidence in TAF. BKN018-022 cigs could last until 22Z. There is a 20 percent chc of -RA 20Z-00Z. No significant east wind component expected.
KBUR, Moderate confidence in TAF. BKN018-022 cigs could last until 22Z. There is a 20 percent chc of -RA 20Z-00Z.
31/715 AM.
High confidence in winds and seas staying under Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels through today. A weak frontal system will move across the coastal waters bringing light showers to the area today and tonight, mostly north of Point Conception. A few light showers could linger into Thursday across the northern waters.
Strong SCA winds with a moderate chance of low-end GALES is expected to develop for the coastal waters south of Point Conception (including nearshore and the Santa Barbara Channel) Wednesday night. These winds will become very widespread Thursday and will last through Friday morning.
Expecting seas to build quickly on Thursday, peaking Thursday night. Seas could reach SCA levels 10-12 feet over the outer waters and inner waters north of Point Sal. Seas for the southern inner waters could peak around 4 to 7 feet. Wave heights should drop off rather quickly as winds shift to the northeast Friday morning.
Ca, NONE. PZ, NONE.
