23/1257 PM.
High pressure will bring significant warming to the area this week with with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. By Tuesday high temperatures will be 8 to 12 degrees above normal. Additional warming Wednesday through Friday will raise temperatures to the 80s and possibly lower 90s with just minor cooling over the weekend.
(Mon-Thu), 23/156 PM.
The pendulum has quickly turned back to ridging along the West coast resulting in dry, warm weather with periods of light to moderate offshore flow. There will be periods of high clouds the next several days as the ridge pushes the storm track much farther to the north, but the main weather feature will be the well above normal temperatures that are expected all of this week and particularly Thursday and beyond when highs even close to the coast will reach the 80s.
There will be some increasing northwest to north winds Tuesday night through Thursday, mainly impacting the mountains, Antelope Valley, and southern Santa Barbara County. Winds could reach advisory levels at times, especially during the evening and overnight hours.
Models continue to pull back on any rain chances locally and now even northern SLO County pops are 10% or less.
(Fri-Mon), 23/155 PM.
High pressure aloft will continue to build over the West coast with 500mb heights reaching 585dam Friday which should be the warmest of the week. Some areas may be getting close to breaking daily temperature records with highs in the 80s near the coast and possibly lower 90s in the valleys, roughly 20 degrees or more above normal.
A slow cooling trend will begin Saturday and continue into early next week as a cutoff low near 145w undercuts the prevailing high pressure ridge over the eastern Pacific and drifts towards California. Naturally there is a lot of uncertainty with its speed and path as it will be entirely disconnected from the primary jet stream, and this creates similar uncertainty in temperatures, though highs are expected to remain at least 4-8 degrees above normal next Monday. Additional cooling is possible Tue and Wed assuming the current ensemble solutions indicating the cutoff low moving south to southern California is reasonably accurate. So far most of the ensembles indicate little to no rain next week but this could change depending on the ultimate path of the low.
Beyond that there are no meaningful chances for rain through at least the first 10 days of March.
23/2329z.
At 2158Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer. There was a surface based inversion to 1200 with a temperature of 22 degrees Celsius.
Moderate to high confidence in VFR TAFs at all sites. 20% chance for VLIFR to LIFR conds at KPRB, KSBP, and KSMX after 06Z and through 18Z. 10% chance for VLIFR to LIFR conds at KLGB and KLAX from 12Z-17Z. Relatively light winds expect, but an increase in onshore flow will bring slightly stronger winds Tuesday afternoon.
KLAX, High confidence in TAF. 10% chance for V000-OVC005 cigs with 1/4SM-1SM vsbys 13Z-17Z. Any east wind component is expected to remain below 7 kts.
KBUR, High confidence in TAF.
23/812 PM.
For the outer waters focused south of Point Conception there is a high chance of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds for much of the week. The strongest winds still look like they will develop Wednesday afternoon and evening with a 20 percent chance of GALES during this window. Seas up to 10 feet may continue into Tuesday focused north of Point Conception. Seas will linger near 10 feet across the entirety of the outer waters and western portion of the nearshore Central Coast waters into Tuesday morning.
Inside the southern California bight, Tuesday afternoon through at least Wednesday night, there is a 50 to 80 chance of SCA level winds across the Santa Barbara Channel, except nearshore areas from Point Mugu to Santa Santa Barbara. 30-50% chance for SCA winds across nearshore waters adjacent to Los Angeles and Orange Counties.
Ca, High Surf Advisory in effect until 9 PM PST Tuesday for zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 AM PST Tuesday for zones 645-670. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 2 PM Tuesday to 4 AM PST Thursday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 4 AM PST Thursday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
