11/1249 AM.
Expecting continued warm high temperatures, with a cooling trend Friday into the weekend as high pressure weakens. Temperatures should trend warmer again next week. A shallow marine layer will develop Friday week and could bring dense fog to the coastal areas through Sunday.
(tdy-Sat), 11/752 AM.
***UPDATE***
Latest satellite and surface observations indicate clear skies across the district this morning. Weak offshore gradients are generating some local northeasterly winds, gusting 20-30 MPH, in the more favored canyons.
Forecast-wise for the immediate short term, current forecast looks very much on track. Based on morning TEMP STUDY data, today looks to be slightly cooler today across the coasts and coastal valleys while inland areas look to warm up a couple of degrees. Current offshore winds will remain weak and localized through the day.
Overall, current forecast has great handle on a "Chamber of Commerce" across the area. No significant updates are expected.
***From Previous Discussion***
The warm spell will continue with only slight cooling forecast through Saturday. An upper high over the state will bring 585 dam hgts to the area today weakening to 582 dam on Friday. Very weak troffing will arrive Saturday and hgts will fall further to 579 dam. At the sfc 2.5 to 5 mb of offshore flow (from both the N and E) today will weaken to about 2 mb in both directions Friday. By Saturday morning the gradients will be near neutral.
Look for a very similar warm day as ydy was. Skies will be sunny. Max temps across the csts/vly will cool 1 to 3 degrees (maybe a few more across the VTA coastal plain) due to the weaker offshore flow. Hgts are a smidge higher and this will bring a couple degrees of warming to the mtns and the interior. Most temperatures away from the nearshore area will be about 15 degrees above normal with 20 degree departures over the VTA vlys and the western LA county vlys.
It looks like low clouds might arrive a day early as the weakening offshore flow may not be strong enough to hold them back. This is not a sure thing forecast and there is a 40 percent chc that there will be no low clouds. If the low clouds do form it will be late - around sunrise. Due to the high pressure overhead the marine layer will be smooshed to less than 500 ft and dense fog is likely wherever low clouds form. Look for 2 to 4 degrees of cooling across most of the area. Despite the cooling there will still be plenty of 80s in the vlys.
The troffing and near neutral sfc flow will bring a high chc of low cloud formation Saturday morning. Low clouds should cover most of the csts and again there will likely be dense fog along with the very low clouds. The lower hgts and lack of appreciable offshore flow will allow for 3 to 6 locally 8 degrees of cooling. This will bring max temps down to around 70 at the csts and 70 to 80 degrees in the vlys. These max temps are still 5 to 10 degrees above normal.
(Sun-Wed), 11/1248 AM.
A little bit of temperature whiplash slated for next Sun and Mon. Weak troffing and onshore flow will bring morning low clouds to the coasts and lower vlys on Sunday. Max temps will respond and will lower 3 to 6 degrees. This will bring coastal temps down to the mid 60s to low 70s and vly temp to the lower to mid 70s. A quick turn around on Monday to weak ridging and weak offshore flow will allow max temps to rebound 4 to 8 degrees across the csts/vly with 2 to 4 degrees of warming across the mtns and interior. This warming will bring max temps away form the nearshore area to 6 to 12 degrees above normal.
Unremarkable weather will follow Tue and Wed with dry NW flow aloft. At the sfc there will be lgt-mdt offshore flow from the north and near neutral flow in the E/W direction. Max temps will not change much over the period.
EC-AI mdl continues to show a storm sometime on the 23/24th time period.
11/1748z.
At 1608Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer. There was a surface based inversion with a top at 1600 feet and a temp of 25 C.
High confidence through 06Z Friday, then moderate thereafter.
Low clouds with patchy fog (could be dense) may arrive to some coastal sections south of Point Conception. LA basin is most likely.
Chances for LIFR conds after 10Z Fri: KSBA/KCMA (20%), KOXR/KSMO (30-40%), and KLGB/KLAX (60%).
KLAX, High confidence in VFR conditions thru at least 06Z Friday. There is a 60% chc of LIFR CIGs 002-004 with arrival & departure times off by +/- 2 hours from current forecast. VSBYs 1/2SM FG is possible from 10Z to 16Z Friday. High confidence in any east wind component remaining below 7kts.
KBUR, High confidence in VFR TAF.
11/839 AM.
High confidence in fairly calm conditions and lowering seas through this weekend. Some patches of dense fog cannot be ruled out initially south of Point Conception with coverage expanding to the northern waters over the weekend.
Gusty NW-W winds will likely return across the Outer waters early next week with Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds likely south of Point Conception. Winds will strengthen Wednesday and Thursday, bringing a 30% chance of GALE force winds from Point Conception to San Nicolas Island including the western portion of the Santa Barbara Channel. These winds will likely result in choppy seas.
Ca, NONE. PZ, NONE.
