01/851 AM.
Hot temperatures are expected through this weekend, with a high risk for heat illness especially inland of the coast. Temperatures will lower next week, but it will remain very warm and likely above normal. Dangerous surf and rip currents are expected at many of the beaches this weekend, as a result of swells from a tropical cyclone located west of Mexico.
(tdy-Mon), 01/849 AM.
***UPDATE***
Made a few small adjustments due to the marine layer this morning, including the mention of some dense fog to the Central Coast and around Point Mugu. A hot weekend remains on track, but with the marine layer seeming to not be going anywhere, will need to adjust temperatures down some over the coastal sections. As a result, will be considering lowering any Heat Warnings for coastal sections down to Heat Advisories. Otherwise, forecast remains on track.
***From Previous Discussion***
The predicted hot weather became reality Friday for most areas more than 10-15 miles from the ocean. The hottest area outside of the deserts was the western San Fernando Valley where highs were between 100 and 108. Surprisingly no records were set yesterday. However, we get another chance for that today as gradients are still trending offshore and 500mb heights are still near 600dam. Most models are indicating another 1-3 degrees of warming today which could push Woodland Hills to 110 and Downtown LA to 95. There is a still a shallow marine layer near the coast which will provide some relief there, and inland temperatures will reach their peak this afternoon before highs drop 2-4 degrees Sunday.
Here's a quick summary of some record highs for today:
Burbank: 105 in 1980 Downtown LA: 99 in 1959 Long Beach: 100 in 1959 LAX: 89 in 1959 Long Beach: 100 in 1959 Palmdale: 110 in 1993 Camarillo: 94 in 1930 Santa Barbara: 87 in 1947 Santa Maria: 89 in 1993 Paso Robles: 112 in 1993
(Tue-Fri), 01/316 AM.
The slow cooling trend will continue through Monday then basically flat lines the rest of next week at roughly 1-5 degrees above normal and minimal day to day temperature variations, placing us squarely in the dog days of summer. If there's any good news in this it's that monsoon moisture is expected to remain out of the area through mid week. Unfortunately there are strong signals for increasing moisture by Thursday and Friday next week with still very strong high pressure aloft, so humidities are likely to be a factor again.
01/1828z.
At 1755Z at KLAX, the marine layer was around 800 feet deep. The top of the inversion was 3500 feet with a temp of 29 degrees Celsius.
High confidence in VFR conds for KPRB, KBUR, KVNY, KPMD and KWJF.
Low confidence in TAFs for KSBP, KSMX and KSBA. Stratus clouds are forecast but with low confidence in flight categories and timing. There is 40% chance conds do not dip to LIFR, and a 20% chance of VLIFR conds with FG for the Central Coast sites.
Low to moderate confidence in KOXR, KCMA and the LA Coastal sites. If low clouds affect these sites, IFR to MVFR conds are likely. The timing could be off by at least +/- 2 hours, and CIGs could form and dissipate at times between around 06Z to 15Z.
KLAX, Low to moderate confidence in the 18Z TAF. The timing of flight cat changes may be off +/- 2 hours from TAF, and there is a 20% chance of no CIG restrictions. No significant east wind component expected.
KBUR, High confidence in the 18Z TAF with VFR conds expected.
01/844 AM.
For the Outer Waters, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds and seas will continue through this weekend before beginning to subside early next week. Winds will generally peak at around 30 knots but occasional gusts to 35 knots will be possible, mainly during the evening hours.
For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, there is an 60-80% chance of SCA winds during the afternoon/evening hours, decreasing to a 30% chance starting Sunday.
For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, there is a 40% chance of SCA winds each afternoon and evening through this weekend over the western portion of the Santa Barbara Channel.
Seas of 7-10 feet will impact the outer waters through this weekend, due to a combination of long-period southerly swell from a distant tropical cyclone and shorter- period northwesterly swell/wind- waves caused by the moderate to locally strong NW winds. As a result, steep, hazardous seas will be common, especially over the outer waters, extending to nearshore waters off the Central Coast.
Dense fog will affect some of the coastal waters each night and morning going forward.
Ca, Extreme Heat Warning in effect until 8 PM PDT Sunday for zones 38-88-343>345-351>353-356>358-368>376-378-379-381>383-548. (See LAXNPWLOX). High Surf Advisory in effect until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for zones 87-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). Beach Hazards Statement in effect until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for zones 340-346-349-350-354-356. (See LAXCFWLOX). Heat Advisory in effect until 8 PM PDT Sunday for zones 342-348>350-354-355-362-366-367-377-380. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Sunday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 AM PDT Sunday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
