03/941 PM.
Warmer temperatures with locally gusty Santa Ana winds will continue through Thursday. The winds and temperatures will peak Wednesday. Cooler temperatures are expected Friday and over the weekend but highs will still be at least 4-8 degrees above normal. There will be a chance of rain by next Tuesday.
(tdy-Fri), 04/1201 AM.
High pressure aloft and offshore flow will make today the warmest of the next 7. Most areas will see 2 to 4 degrees of warming. The nearshore area of the LA county coast and the entire Ventura County coastal plain, however, however will see 8 to 12 degrees of warming as any and all marine influence vanishes with the offshore flow. Max temps will end up in the 80s across almost all of the csts/vlys. These reading are 15 to 20 locally 22 degrees above normal. A few records are possible, particularly Burbank (record 86), LAX (record 84), and Long Beach (record 87).
In addition 4 to 6 mb offshore flow and some easterly upper level winds will combine to bring advisory level gusts to the usual Santa Ana vulnerable areas. The Santa Lucia range in SLO County will see gusts just below advisory levels as well.
The ridge will be pushed to the east on Thursday as a trof approaches from the west. Hgts will fall through the day and end up near 574 dam by late afternoon. At the same time a mass of mid and high clouds will move in with the approaching trof and skies will become partly to mostly cloudy (esp in the afternoon). The morning offshore flow is not that much changed from today's values but the upper support will be gone so most gusts should end up below advisory levels. There is a little more of a push from the east so some areas with a disposition to easterly winds may be breezier tomorrow than today. The clouds and lowering hgts should bring 2 to 5 degrees of cooling to the area. Max temps will still be well above normal.
The trof axis will be over the state on Friday. Hgts will fall to about 568 dam. The trof will bring plenty of mid and high level clouds and it will be a mostly cloudy day. Rain is unlikely as the trof is very dry but cannot rule out a sprinkle or two. There will be strong onshore trends and no wind issues. The lower hgts, onshore trends and cloud cover will all conspire to lower max temps 8 to 12 locally 15 degrees across the csts/vlys and 4 to 8 degrees for the interior. Despite this large amount of cooling max temps will still be 3 to 6 degrees above normal with cst/vly highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s.
(Sat-Tue), 04/302 AM.
The weekend looks dry and pleasant. A ridge with a strong positive tilt will nose its way into the state from the west. Hgts will rise to about 580 dam. There should be just enough offshore flow to keep the low clouds away (with a ~30 percent chc of some morning low clouds over western SBA county and southern LA county) but not enough to create any wind issues. Skies, otherwise, will be mostly clear - at worst partly cloudy. The extra sunshine and rising hgts should be good for 1 to 3 degrees of warming each day. Sunday's highs should end up in the 70s and lower 80s for most of the csts and vlys which is about 10 degrees above normal.
On Monday the ridge will slowly be pushed to the south by an approaching storm. Moist WSW flow will slowly overspread the area. A slight chc of light rain will develop over the Central Coast in the morning, but more likely there will just be a deep marine layer and some drizzle across most of the csts and vlys. The low clouds will dissipate by late morning but the day will turn mostly cloudy as mid and high clouds overspread the area. The slight chc of rain will continue across the Central Coast in the afternoon but more likely it will just be cloudy and dry. Max temps will tumble 4 to 8 degrees but will remain 3 to 5 degrees above normal.
A series of impulses will move into the state Monday evening through Wednesday. There is no more than a 40 percent chc of rain in any given 6 hour period during this time, but its likely that rain will fall sometime during this period and the uncertainty is mostly due to uncertainty in the timing and location of the various impulses. This will not be a be rainmaker with only a quarter to half inch of rain forecast over the 60 hour period. That all said, both the AI mdls show zero rain for this period and a battle between the ensemble based forecast vs the upstart AI mdls has been set up. Stay tuned.
Both the AI-GFS and AI-EC continue to see a more potent storm during the 15th to 17th time frame.
04/1129z.
At 1100Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor an inversion.
High confidence in CAVU TAFs.
Moderate confidence in winds.
Light LLWS and Turbulence possible over and near hier trrn of Los Angeles & Ventura counties thru pd.
NE-E winds (15-20 kt) may surface thru 18Z Wed & again after 00Z Thursday at KSBP.
KLAX, High confidence in TAF. Good confidence in any east wind component remaining below 8 kts through 06Z Thursday, moderate confidence thereafter.
KBUR, High confidence in TAF. There is a 30% chc NE-E winds of 15-20 kt to surface between 12Z and 00Z Thursday.
04/104 AM.
For all the Outer Waters and the Inner Waters north of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Offshore northeast winds may approach Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels near Cayucos through this morning. Much weaker Thursday morning. SCA level easterly winds could affect the Channel Islands through Thursday during the morning to early afternoon timeframe. Otherwise, conditions should generally remain below SCA criteria through Thursday, followed by high confidence for SCA seas and moderate confidence for SCA winds Friday into the weekend.
For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate confidence in current forecast. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect through Wednesday afternoon across PZZ655/650 to cover typical waters affected by Santa Ana NE winds. This will likely need to be extended into Thursday morning across the Santa Barbara Channel as the flow shifts more easterly. In general, these E-NE winds are expected in across the typical corridor from Ventura to Santa Monica extending out to the Channel Islands. Winds will be the strongest nearshore below mountain canyons and passes where GALE force wind gusts cannot be ruled out.
Offshore flow will weaken Thursday afternoon and result in conds remaining below advisory levels until NW winds increase to near SCA levels early next week. The only exception is across western portions of the SB channel where SCA wind gusts are possible over the weekend.
04/1218 AM.
An active storm pattern over the northern Pacific will generate a series of swells which will propagate towards our coastline beginning on Friday lasting well into next week. An extended period of elevated surf is possible to likely.
A dominant long period West swell will arrive on Friday. High confidence in advisory level surf with minor coastal flooding possible through Sunday morning (peaking Friday afternoon into Saturday morning).
Peak surf heights are likely to be near or greater than 15 ft for west- facing beaches along the Central Coast, and near or greater than 10 ft south of Point Conception.
The day shift will likely issue High Surf Advisories with fine details, thus please stay tuned to the National Weather Service for future updates as we continue to monitor the situation.
Ca, Wind Advisory remains in effect until 2 PM PST this afternoon for zones 88-354-355-358-362-369>372-374>376-378>380. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PST this afternoon for zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
