12/208 AM.
Night through morning low clouds and fog will cover most of the coasts and many valley locations through the weekend and into early next week. Highs will cool slightly through Sunday. Most high temperatures will remain above normal, with the exception of the coasts, which will see temperatures near to slightly below normal.
(tdy-Sun), 12/819 AM.
***UPDATE***
Visible Satellite reveals another typical marine layer stratus morning across the area. Observations and webcams show fog is present across the Santa Maria Valley. There is a few areas of dense fog, but too localized to warrant an advisory.
Current trends in Hi-res guidance keeps all convective activity south and east of our CWA. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track.
***From Previous Discussion***
Very typical June weather will dominate the short and long term weather for Srn CA. At the upper levels the southern portion of the state will be under an col area with hgts near 589 dam. At the sfc there there will be mdt to stg onshore flow both to the N and the E strongest in the afternoon.
There is no eddy tonight so the low clouds are moving into the cstl areas at a much slower pace than last night. The marine layer depth is only around 1000 ft and there will be less vly coverage this morning compared to ydy morning. The strong gradients will bring hinder clearing and some beaches will remain cloudy all day. This marine layer pattern (early evening arrival and late morning or early afternoon departure) will continue through Sunday and beyond.
The strong (8-9 mb) onshore push in the afternoon will bring enhanced seabreezes and gusty afternoon winds to the western Antelope Vly each day. The winds will not reach advisory levels.
The increasing onshore flow and expanded marine layer coverage will bring a slow cooling trend through the weekend. Look for 70s and lower 80s across the csts and mid 80s to lower 90s over the vlys. Due to the high hgts the mtns and interior will experience above normal temps while the csts/vlys will be fairly close to normal.
Both the RRFS and HRRR now show a much lower chc of afternoon convection from the upper high to the south. This latest hi rez forecast keep all of the convection safely to the S and E of LA county.
(Mon-Thu), 12/208 AM.
Very little to say about the long term forecast into later next week. Its June and the weather will be June like. Weak flow will continue at the upper levels as the jet stream will be over WA. At the sfc there will be little day to day change in the gradient pattern with mdt-stg onshore flow continuing both to the north and east.
There should be only minor day to day changes in the temperatures. The NBM mdl shows decent cooling both next Wed and Thu but with no changes in the synoptic pattern will take this fcst with a small grain of salt. Max temps will continue to run near normal across the csts/vlys and above normal for the mtns and far inland areas.
No major wind issues save for the typical gusty west winds in the Antelope Vly in the afternoon.
12/1751z.
At 1708Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 900 ft deep. The top of the inversion was at 4800 ft with a maximum temperature of 23 C.
High confidence in VFR TAFs for KPRB, KPMD and KWJF.
Moderate confidence in TAFs for KBUR and KVNY with a 20 percent chc of LIFR/IFR cig and vis 12Z-15Z.
Moderate confidence in remaining TAFs. Timing of CIG/VSBY restrictions may be off +/- 2 hours and flight minimums by one category.
KLAX, Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 60 percent chc of OVC005-010 cigs 09Z-15Z. No significant east wind component expected.
KBUR, Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 20 percent chc of 6SM BR OVC004 conds 12Z-15Z.
12/753 AM.
No significant changes to the previous forecast. Conditions are generally expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels through early next week.
Light winds, becoming W at 5 to 10 kts this afternoon. Local west to northwest wind gusts could reach or exceed 21 kts each afternoon through early next week near Pt Conception, Pt Dume, near the Channel Islands, western Santa Barbara Channel, and across the San Pedro Channel. There is a low chance of SCA winds this the weekend, with increasing chances (25-50%) south of Pt Conception early next week.
Ca, NONE. PZ, NONE.
