06/154 PM.
Benign weather will continue through the weekend with a low chance of morning low clouds and fog along the Los Angeles coast. A significant warming trend will begin Sunday with temperatures well above normal Monday through next Friday, peaking Tuesday through Thursday. Offshore winds will increase Sunday and Monday persisting through much of the week.
(tdy-Mon), 06/154 PM.
Pretty quiet weather this afternoon with clear skies and no marine layer present. Surface observations show a few gusty ridgetops across the Santa Lucia and La Panza ranges (20-30 mph). Winds will increase later this afternoon and evening across these locations, but should remain below advisory levels. There is a low chance for a return of a shallow marine layer to the LA coast tonight into Sunday morning.
Maximum Temps will warm a few to several degrees (esp. across coasts & valleys) through Monday. By Monday, most areas will be 8 to 12 degrees above normal. Moderate SMX-BFL offshore gradients will result in gusty sub- advisory winds across the Santa Lucia and La Panza ranges through Monday. ECMWF guidance suggests LAX- DAG gradients peak around -4 mb Monday afternoon. The Santa Susana mountains will likely have the best chance for a borderline wind advisory as guidance currently depicts.
Deterministic cross-sections indicate that rising heights from the ridge building in from west combined with established offshore gradients should be sufficient enough to keep the marine layer well offshore by Monday afternoon.
The GFS and EC are in general agreement with well above normal temperatures peaking Tuesday through Thursday. Max Temps will warm another 2 to 4 degrees on average from Monday.
(Tue-Sat), 06/154 PM.
The GFS and EC are in general agreement on very warm conditions with steady offshore flow with moderate strength at times. In combination with 500mb heights varying between 583mb and 586mb, it is expected that the marine layer will stay well offshore. These heights are about 15 dam higher than the normal value of 571.
From Tuesday thru Thursday, max temperatures are generally expected to be 5-10 degrees above normal for immediate coastline, 10-15 degrees for inland coasts & valleys, and 15-18 locally 20 degrees across interior valley and mountain locations. Translates into around 70 degrees for immediate coastline, mid 70s to low 80s inland coasts, mid 80s for favored locations such as San Fernando, Santa Clarita, Ojai, and Santa Ynez valley floors. Interior mtn locations above 5,000 ft may struggle getting out of the 60s. The ensemble suites indicate there might be slight cooling on Friday but temperatures should remain well above normal. We will have a better idea of temps over the next few days as we get closer.
There may be some cooling next weekend but max temps are expected to remain well above normal especially across the interior. There may be a return shallow marine layer influence across the coastal sections but guidance is in disagreement with how quickly the offshore gradients weaken and how much 500mb heights fall.
06/2304z.
At 2210Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor an inversion.
Overall, moderate to high confidence in 00Z TAF package. Through this evening, high confidence in CAVU conditions for all sites. For late tonight/Sunday morning, there is a 30% chance of CIG/VSBY restrictions at KLAX and KLGB.
KLAX, Overall, moderate to high confidence in 00Z TAF. Through this evening, high confidence in CAVU conditions. From 09Z-16Z, there is a 30% chance of LIFR/VLIFR conditions. No significant easterly wind component is expected through forecast period.
KBUR, High confidence in 00Z TAF with CAVU conditions expected.
06/154 PM.
For the waters southwest through northwest of the Channel Islands beyond 10 NM offshore of the Central Coast, low-end Small Craft Advisory conditions expected at times through much of next week, especially across the north and western portions of PZZ670/673 during the afternoon and evening hours.
Inside the southern California bight, high chance of winds and seas remaining below SCA levels through Monday night. Moderate chance of offshore winds from Ventura through Santa Monica through Tuesday afternoon. Guidance suggests winds and seas should remain below SCA levels thereafter through the work week.
There is a low chance of dense fog over the coastal waters adjacent to Los Angeles and Orange Counties tonight through tomorrow morning. Confidence remains low on timing and coverage.
Ca, NONE. PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Monday for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
