06/103 PM.
Today will be the coolest day of the upcoming week, followed by warmer days Thurday and Friday. Temperatures will be even warmer this weekend through early next week, with high temperatures largely be in the 80s and 90s. There is a chance for 100 degrees at some locations during peak of the heat, which will be Mothers Day and Monday.
(tdy-Sat), 06/237 PM.
Mostly sunny skies and calm pleasant weather is expected for today behind the low pressure system that moved through the area yesterday. Over the next several days, 500 mb heights will increase sharply as a ridge of high pressure sets up over the region. As a result, warming is expected for Thursday and Friday, bumping highs into the mid 70s to mid 80s across much of the region. Weak offshore flow in the afternoon will minimize the seabreeze at the coast allowing for warm conditions even across most beaches, though the valleys will still be the warmest locations.
This evening through tonight, gusty northwest winds will impact southwestern Santa Barbara County and the Interstate 5 Corridor, due to a north-to-south surface pressure gradient. These winds will redevelop again on Thursday.
Marine layer clouds are favored to return late tonight into tomorrow morning across portions of the coasts and valleys, however there is around a 30 chance that skies will be mostly clear tomorrow morning (like they were this morning). Tomorrow night through Friday morning, surface pressure gradients will likely be more favorable for the coasts, and building high pressure will increase the risk for dense fog.
(Sun-Wed), 06/238 PM.
The ridge of high pressure will continue to build, likely peaking in strength on Mothers Day (Sunday) and Monday and lingering into mid next week. 500mb heights are expected to reach 590dam, which is between the 97th and 99th percentiles for this time of year over are the region, indicative of a fairly rare event for May. Mothers Day and Monday be the hottest days of the heat spell, with most temperatures in the valleys and deserts in the 90s, and there is the potential for temperatures as high as 100 degrees across the western San Fernando Valley and the interior valleys of San Luis Obispo County. Maximum temperatures will be at least 10-15 degrees above normal, with areas locally 20+ degrees above normal. Heat Advisories will be possible for this event, right now around a 30 percent chance. This will depend a lot on how the surface pressure gradients play out, as they have the potential to be lightly offshore (warmer temperatures especially at the coasts) or more onshore (cooler at the coasts). Overall prepare for a warm weekend through early next week, and consider the minor to moderate HeatRisk when planning any outdoor activities, including for Mother's Day.
06/1705z.
At 1547Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1600 ft deep. The top of the inversion was around 4800 ft with a temperature of 13 C.
Overall, moderate to high confidence in 18Z TAF Package. Generally expecting VFR conditions. Except for LIFR CIGs possible at KSMX from 06Z-15Z (60%) and KSBP from 06Z-12Z (30%).
KLAX, Moderate confidence in TAF. 15% chance CIGs around BKN006 develop 06/10Z-15Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected. No significant east wind component expected.
KBUR, High confidence in TAF. VFR conditions with no wind issues are expected.
06/126 PM.
From Wednesday through Saturday, SCA level NW winds are expected to strengthen each day and will peak Friday afternoon and evening. These winds are likely to reach 20 to 30 kts across the outer waters. There is about a 15% chance of GALE Force winds during this timeframe. SCA level winds are also likely at times across the nearshore waters along the Central coast and into at least western portions of the Santa Barbara Channel.
Short period seas will build during this timeframe especially across the outer waters - reaching 10 feet by Friday then peaking up to 11 feet Friday night through Saturday night.
Winds and seas should diminish throughout the day on Sunday. By Monday, conditions should be much calmer and likely below SCA levels.
Ca, NONE. PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 10 PM PDT this evening for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
