04/1131 PM.
Warm temperatures with locally gusty Santa Ana winds will continue today. Cooler temperatures are expected Friday and over the weekend but highs will still be at least 4-8 degrees above normal. There will be a chance of rain by next Tuesday.
(tdy-Sat), 05/1231 AM.
Gradients will end up about 3 to 4 mb offshore this morning. Enough to keep overnight lows well above normal in some places as well as bringing another day of well above normal temps to the area. There is, however, no upper level support and while there will be Santa Ana winds this morning they will not reach advisory levels. The upper ridge will be pushed up to the east by a trof moving up from the SW. The falling hgts will arrive too late to have a big affect on the temperatures, but the advancing cloud shield assoc with the trof might. Current temp only has 2 to 4 degrees of cooling in it with the thinking that the heavier cloud cover will arrive later and the only cooling will be the result of the weaker offshore flow. If the clouds arrive earlier and are thicker than fcst there could be more cooling than fcst. With the current cooling factored in todays max temps will come in mostly in the 80s or 10 to 15 degrees over normal.
Friday will feature substantial cooling. A cut off low will pinch off from the trof. Skies will be mostly cloudy through early afternoon and then diminish as the cut off low moves away to the SE. Most importantly the the offshore flow in the morning will be much weaker and actual onshore flow will develop in the afternoon. Max temps will drop 10 to 15 degrees across the csts/vlys where the effects of the gradient switch will be most impactful. The interior will cool 4 to 6 degrees mostly due to the mostly cloudy skies. Even with this dramatic cooling max temps will end up in the upper 60s to mid 70s across the csts and vlys which is still 3 to 6 degrees above normal.
The low will push well to the south on Saturday and a strongly tilted ridge will nose into the state from the west. Offshore flow will increase, hgts will rise and skies will clear. All of these events will combine to bring 3 to 6 degrees of warming to most areas.
(Sun-Wed), 05/1231 AM.
The ridge will remain in place on Sunday. Offshore flow will increase again and will be between 4 and 5 mb in the morning both from the N and the E. There will be a weak Santa Ana in the morning with most gusts under 35 mph across the csts/vlys and under 45 mph in the mtns. Sunny skies and offshore flow will bring another 3 to 6 degrees of warming and cst/vly max temps will end up in the mid 70s to lower 80s (lower 70s at the beaches). Max temps will end up 8 to 12 degrees over normal.
Another cool down is forecast on Monday as the ridge is pushed to the south and offshore flow weakens. A coastal marine layer stratus deck is forecast to form, but there is a fair chance that this will not happen. Falling hgts and weaker offshore flow will lead to 3 to 6 degrees of cooling.
A weak trof is forecast to move over the state on Tuesday followed by a coast hugging upper low on Wednesday. Ensemble based rain chances currently in the official forecast show about a 20 to 30 percent chc of rain in any given 6 hour period on Tuesday and a 30 to 40 percent chc on Wednesday. These pops are lower than they were 24 hours ago. Both AI mdls show a much lower chc on both days. The total rainfall fcst for the two day period Tue/Wed is now lower as well with all values not under a third of an inch.
Both AI mdls continue to show a much more active pattern developing as early as Friday the 13th but more likely the 15th through the 18th.
05/1111z.
At 0852Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor an inversion.
High confidence in TAFs.
KLAX, High confidence in TAF. Good confidence that any east wind component will be under 8 kt.
KBUR, High confidence in TAF.
05/141 AM.
Offshore easterly winds will continue from Ventura to Malibu and out to Anacapa/Santa Cruz Islands at times thru Thursday morning.
By Thursday evening, winds and seas are expected to fall below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels through late Thursday night.
Seas are likely to reach SCA levels by Friday morning across the Outer Waters and nearshore along the Central Coast. The hazardous seas could last through Saturday evening especially south of Point Conception.
There is moderate chance for winds to reach SCA levels across the Outer waters south and west of the Channel Islands late Saturday afternoon into evening hours. Low to moderate chance for SCA winds across far northern waters (PZZ670) if the coastal jet develops.
Confidence increases by Sunday afternoon/evening for widespread SCA level winds to develop which could persist well into next week. These winds could spread into the Santa Barbara Channel & western portions of the PZZ655 at times. There is also a chance for GALES across climatologically favored waters. Hazardous seas are also likely as two rounds of swells propagate into our coastal waters mid-week.
05/141 AM.
An active storm pattern over the northern Pacific Ocean will generate a series of swells which will propagate towards our coastline, first arriving on Friday and lasting well into next week. There is a high chance of an extended period of elevated surf. There is high confidence in advisory level surf with minor coastal flooding possible Friday through Sunday morning, then moderate confidence in additional high surf Monday into Tuesday (and possibly longer) of next week.
Peak surf heights are likely to be between 10 to 15 ft for west- facing beaches along the Central Coast, and between 5 to 9 ft south of Point Conception.
***UPDATE AS OF 12 AM THURSDAY***
Have issued a High Surf Advisory for Santa Barbara County south coast valid from 6 AM Friday to 6 PM Saturday. See CFWLOX and SRFLOX for more details.
Ca, High Surf Advisory in effect from midnight tonight to 6 AM PST Saturday for zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX). High Surf Advisory in effect from 6 AM Friday to 6 PM PST Saturday for zones 349-350-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 AM Friday to 9 AM PST Saturday for zones 645-670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until noon PST today for zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 9 AM Friday to 9 AM PST Saturday for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
