09/948 PM.
Warm and dry conditions with sunny skies are expected at least through mid week, with breezy northeast winds at times. A noticeable cooling trend will start Thursday, with temperatures falling to near normal by Friday. Rain is likely at some point between late this week and early next week.
(Mon-Thu), 09/912 PM.
***UPDATE***
Today was warm and dry due to persistent offshore winds and weak afternoon sea breezes. High temperatures in the 80s were common for the southern coasts and valleys, with touch cooler mid 70s to mid 80s for the northern coasts and valleys. Temperatures are forecast to remain on the warm side on the coastal side of the mountains over the next few days as the LAX-DAG gradient supports ongoing weak offshore flow. For Tuesday, winds will rule the temperatures, and likely lead to the most noticeable warming occuring over the Central Coast. By Thursday, things shift and upper level flow shifts to the southwest ahead of the deep upper level trough.
Expecting another night of very clear conditions with ongoing offshore winds tonight, especially for the Santa Lucia mountains in San Luis Obispo County. Winds are picking up this evening over the Santa Lucia mountains, mostly at higher elevations and we should see easterly wind gusts in the 30 to 40 mph range, with local gusts near 45 mph into Tuesday morning. Southern areas will also see some easterly sub advisory level winds Tuesday, focused on the San Gabriel mountains and the Santa Susana mountains. Winds trend weaker for Wednesday, with better onshore flow developing Thursday.
***From Previous Discussion***
Still very little change in the forecast both short and long term. Light to moderate offshore flow will continue through at least Wednesday, and the latest models are indicating a slight increase Tuesday. Easterly offshore winds will increase slightly and the added offshore push will likely result in at least 1-2 degrees of warming Tuesday, keeping highs in the 80s to around 90 for coast and valleys. Interior areas like the Antelope Valley and mountains will warm up as well. And then very little change going into Wednesday.
By Thursday high pressure will finally begin to relinquish control as a large upper low moves into the eastern Pacific. This will begin a rapid cooling trend for coast and valleys with high temperatures dropping around 10 degrees.
(Fri-Mon), 09/216 PM.
Rain chances begin as early as late Friday and continue into next week as at least three upper level lows move through the West coast. Although timing and rain amounts remain elusive, the likelihood of widespread rain throughout southern California is over 90%. However, it's a very complicated upper level pattern and there is still at least a 50% chance of just very minimal rain amounts (under a half inch) through the middle of next week with long (1-3 day) pauses in the rain. Expecting to more clarity at least with the beginning of the storm by mid week.
10/0547z.
At 0455Z at KLAX, there was a surface based inversion with a top near 1200 feet and a temperature of 25 deg C.
High confidence in VFR TAFs for all sites.
KLAX, High confidence in TAF. Any east wind component will be AOB 5kt.
KBUR, High confidence in TAF.
09/750 PM.
For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Seas across the outer waters are beginning to subside, now in the 10 to 12 foot range. Small Craft Advisories were extended through noon Tuesday to account for some wind gusts up to 25 knots and seas lingering near 10 feet earlier Tuesday morning. Seas will remain slightly below SCA levels Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday. Expecting 10+ ft seas to return Thursday through at least Sunday, with models indicating potential for wave heights between 15 to 20 ft waves. At this time the peak looks to be Saturday afternoon into early Sunday.
For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast, with conds likely to remain at SCA levels through late tonight For Wednesday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. SCA level seas could return as early as Thursday night, increasing into the weekend.
For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels for the southern Inner Waters through Thursday. SCA winds will then be possible at times Friday night through Sunday, mainly across the Santa Barbara Channel during the afternoon to evening hours.
There is a chance of showers sometime from Thursday night into the weekend across the coastal waters.
09/800 PM.
High tides will peak during the morning hours through Tuesday between 7.0 to 7.4 feet (MLLW). At the same time, a large and long period W-NW swell peaked in the waters today and will gradually subside through Tuesday. The waves remain large enough through around noon on Tuesday to produce hazardous conditions, along with the high tides. There is a continued risk of moderate coastal flooding along with dangerous swimming conditions. If you are in the coastal areas, heed advice from your local officials.
This coastal flooding event will differ in several ways from the past episodes this year. While these tides are high, they are not nearly as high as the record breaking tides from two weeks ago. Impacts to harbor areas and Naples Island will generally remain minor compared to previous events. Shallow flooding risks will continue in some locations, especially in low- lying walkways, but of a lesser degree less in severity and coverage.
For the beach-side coastal areas, the swell is from the west to northwest. Areas like Oceano and Cayucos on the Central Coast, and the Ventura County coast, have elevated risks of moderate coastal flooding. Impacts include things like flooded sandy beach areas, moderate beach erosion, as well as shallow flooding of beach parking lots and bike paths. Isolated damage is unlikely but cannot be ruled out especially considering the extent of beach erosion we have already seen - which limits the natural protective buffer between the ocean and coastal infrastructure. However, the swell is now subsiding and so the impacts are likely diminishing as well, although the Tuesday morning high tide may produce additional risks.
For the Central Coast, Ventura and LA County Coasts, a High Surf Advisory and Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect through noon on Tuesday. Otherwise, a Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for Catalina Island and a Beach Hazards Statement is in effect for Santa Barbara Southern Coast through Tuesday morning.
Additional products will likely be needed through the week with a heightened risk this weekend. Stay tuned for updates.
Ca, Coastal Flood Advisory in effect until noon PST Tuesday for zones 87-340-346-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). High Surf Advisory in effect until noon PST Tuesday for zones 340-346-354-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Tuesday morning for zones 349-350. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Tuesday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until noon PST Tuesday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
