24/344 AM.
Dry conditions are expected through at least Friday with above normal temperatures and gusty Santa Ana winds at times from Tuesday through Thursday.
(tdy-Wed), 24/420 AM.
The Catalina eddy is expected to strengthen and deepen the marine layer inversion this morning across the LA coast. Low confidence if low clouds and patchy fog will make it into the San Fernando Valley. This is dependent upon the eddy's strengthen, as well as how much and how fast N-S gradients trend offshore. Areas of dense fog is likely to continue across the Santa Maria Valley & Salinas Valley through the mid-morning hours. Dense Fog advisories are in effect thru 10 AM. Lingering marine layer stratus with a little onshore push should allow coastal sections to cool some from yesterday. Due to eddy and low Sun angle (inhibiting mixing), there is a small chance the marine layer lingers all day or most of it. If this occurs, this would lower Maximum Temps especially along the immediate coastline. N-NE offshore gradients are expected to increase overnight. SMX-BFL gradients should increase to roughly -3 to -3.5 mb indicating about a 40% chance of a wind advisory being issued for a portion of the Santa Lucia Range overnight into Tuesday. Even a touch stronger into Wednesday, so chances for wind advisories will continue.
Healthy offshore gradients across our area will continue through Thanksgiving day. Guidance suggests a weak to moderate Santa Ana Wind event Tuesday through Turkey morning. LAX-DAG gradient of (-6 mb) should peak Wednesday morning. The biggest caveat to the setup is the lack of upper-level support (which looks best on Tuesday). However, there should be enough overlap to support wind advisories across Santa Ana Wind prone areas from late Tuesday into Wednesday afternoon. Additionally, there is a low to moderate chance for advisories to be issued across the Santa Monica mtns including the coastal leeward side from Point Mugu to Malibu.
Saturated soils from recent rains will thankfully and greatly so mitigate the wildfire threat. However, soft soils will allow for trees to more easily be knocked over by winds. Make sure to secure outdoor decorations and try to strategically park your car away from trees if possible.
The downsloping winds will result in temperatures climbing 5-10 degrees above normal for many areas Tuesday and Wednesday. Widespread temperatures in the 70s are likely even down to the immediate coastline. Odds are warmest valley locations will reach the low 80s especially on Wednesday. Expecting Temps to remain above normal into Thursday with lingering Santa Ana winds into the early afternoon hours.
(Thu-Sun), 24/346 AM.
Santa Lucia winds (Likely Sub-Advisory) will continue through Friday as the pressure gradients weaken some. Max Temperatures will continue to cool some in Friday, with highs in the mid 60s to low 70s and clear skies.
Quite of a bit of uncertainty continues regarding the weather forecast for this weekend. As is fairly common at this range with amplified large-scale patterns, guidance continues to flip flop back and forth among the array of solutions. This appears to mostly be caused by models inability to resolve the Pacific North American (PNA) oscillation and rossby wave breaks. It also doesn't help that the North Pacific is a data-sparse region.
What is interesting is that the ensemble suites of EC, EC-AIFS, & GFS have trended towards more of a -PNA - persisting into early December. This appears to be cause by potential several troughs over central-north Pacific pumping mass into the ridge. This would sustain a -PNA for some time, while rossby wave breaks occur downstream. If this is realized, active weather might be on the table even after this weekend. However, I digress since it is too far out.
All in all, the system this weekend could range from a dry Santa Ana Wind pattern, to a nuisance rain event, or even a storm with snow for high elevations (a few solutions show this). Stay tuned to the National Weather Service as we continue to monitor the situation.
24/1047z.
At 01015Z at KLAX, the marine inversion was based around 800 feet. The top of the inversion was 1700 feet with a temperature of 15 degrees Celsius.
For the 12Z TAF package, high confidence in KBUR, KVNY, KPMD and KWJF. For all other sites, moderate confidence in forecasts due to uncertainties in the behavior of the marine layer. Timing of flight category changes this morning could be +/- 2 hours of current forecasts. For tonight, there is a 30% chance that CIG and VSBY restrictions do not develop at KSMO, KLAX, and KLGB.
KLAX, Overall, moderate confidence in 12Z TAF. Timing of flight category changes this morning could be +/- 2 hours of current forecasts. For tonight, there is a 30% chance that CIG and VSBY restrictions do not develop. No significant easterly wind component is expected.
KBUR, High confidence in 12Z TAF.
24/246 AM.
For the Outer Waters, high confidence in current forecast. Through this afternoon, a combination of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas will continue. For tonight through Thursday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. On Friday, winds and seas are expected to increase to SCA levels.
For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Thursday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. On Friday, there is a 40% chance of SCA level winds and seas developing.
For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Through tonight, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels across all the southern Inner Waters. For Tuesday, there is a 20-30% chance of SCA level northeast winds from Ventura south to Santa Monica, increasing to a 60% chance Tuesday night into Wednesday, then decreasing to a 30% chance Wednesday night and Thursday. Otherwise, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels Tuesday through Friday.
Ca, Dense Fog Advisory in effect until 10 AM PST this morning for zones 343-347. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PST this afternoon for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
