22/716 PM.
Minimal changes expected through the weekend with above normal temperatures. Patchy night through morning low clouds and fog will be confined to coastal areas, mainly north of Point Conception. Additional warming is expected next week with periods of extreme heat in some areas, especially Tuesday through Friday.
(Sat-Tue), 22/802 PM.
***UPDATE***
Hot to very hot conditions are expected to persist through late this coming week as a strong ridge of high pressure remains centered near the Four-corners area. The upper ridge will continue to expand over southern California from the southeast, along with weakening onshore pressure gradients. Temperatures today were similar to yesterday's highs, give or take a degree or two, in most locations. This trend is likely to continue through Sunday and Monday, before additional warming occurs Tuesday through Friday. At the same time, warm overnight lows will start the days out warm, adding to the heat discomfort.
A Heat Advisory is in effect for LA and Ventura Counties except for the higher mountains of Ventura and the Antelope Valley. The Advisory also covers the Santa Barbara Mountains and Cuyama Valley, and the South Coast. The timing is from 10 AM Sunday morning through 10 AM Tuesday. Following that, there is an Extreme Heat Watch in effect for the same areas, through Friday evening.
Gusty onshore winds will affect the interior passes and canyons, especially Soledad Canyon into the Antelope Valley, with gusty Sundowners across SW Santa Barbara County. Gusts in these areas will generally peak at 25 to 35 mph, although with isolated stronger gusts near Gaviota and Refugio. Otherwise, winds in most locations will be relatively light, under 20 mph. Stronger Sundowners will be possible starting Monday evening.
As for low clouds, for the past couple of night to morning periods they have been limited to the southern Central Coast, of western Santa Barbara county. This trend is likely to continue, although models keep showing low clouds over coastal sections of LA County, which could verify at times.
***From Previous Discussion***
The heat is on. It looks to be a very hot week across southwest California, especially Tuesday and beyond as high pressure aloft builds in from the east onshore gradients start to relax and possibly even turn lightly offshore. Temperatures today are similar or slightly cooler than the last couple days but models are indicating weakening onshore flow this week, especially starting Tuesday while at the same time heights and thicknesses rise due to high pressure building from the heat.
At that point models indicate the potential for light to locally moderate offshore flow. There is still quite a bit of uncertainty with this part of the equation which is why the heat hazards turn into Extreme Heat Watches Tuesday through Friday. If gradients end up being more onshore then most areas will likely just remain under heat advisories. Current projections indicate around a 30% chance of 110 or higher in the San Fernando Valley and also a 40% chance of 100 or higher in Downtown LA.
For areas north of Pt Conception, temps will be warming there as well but the hottest temps will hold off until Tue or Wed.
(Wed-Sat), 22/219 PM.
The extreme heat is expected to continue through the week peaking late in the week. As high pressure continues to build the warm air will start to push north along the Central Coast and will likely need to be issuing additional heat advisories and/or warnings for some or all of the area by Wednesday. Projections show around a 10% chance of 100 degrees in SLO Wed-Fri and a 50-70% chance of highs of 105-110 across interior SLO. In addition, hot Sundowners will be peaking Tuesday and Wednesday evenings across the Santa Ynez Range with strong gusts and temperatures in the 90s and lower 100s likely.
Farther south the heat will just get worse later next week with some coastal valleys as high as 113 by Friday and a 20-40% chance of highs 100 or higher in Downtown LA and Camarillo.
Some cooling expected to start next Saturday but still at least 6-12 degrees above normal.
23/0036z.
At 2249Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 900 feet deep. The top of the inversion was at 2100 feet with a temperature of 30 C.
High confidence in VFR TAFs for KPRB, KSBA, KPMD, KWJF, KBUR, KVNY, KOXR, KCMA, & KSMO.
There is a 15% chc of LIFR/IFR CIGs at KLAX, KLGB, KSBP between 23/10Z-16Z.
KLAX, High confidence in VFR TAF. However, there is a 15% chance of LIFR/IFR CIGs 23/10Z-16Z. No significant east wind component is expected.
KBUR, High confidence in VFR TAF. No wind issues expected.
22/631 PM.
Moderate to high confidence in Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds (20-30 knots) across the Outer Waters at least through Monday night, most prevalent south and west of Point Sal. This may need to be extended through mid week and expanded to all waters again later in the week. SCA winds gusts are also expected across the nearshore waters along the Central Coast this afternoon and evening, then there is a moderate chance for more widespread wind gusts reaching 25 knots during the afternoon and evening hours starting Tuesday and likely continuing through the week.
Gusts of 20-25 knots should reach the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel each afternoon/evening starting Monday and continuing through the week. Moderate chances of SCA level winds reaching the eastern portion of the channel by mid-week. Otherwise widespread SCA conds are not likely for the inner waters south of Point Conception.
Ca, Heat Advisory in effect from 10 AM Sunday to 10 AM PDT Tuesday for zones 38-87-88-349>358-362-366>376-378>380-548. (See LAXNPWLOX). Extreme Heat Watch in effect from Tuesday morning through Friday evening for zones 38-87-88-349>358-362-366>376-378>383-548. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect until 2 AM PDT Sunday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 11 PM PDT Sunday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 4 AM PDT Tuesday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
