03/1241 PM.
Temperatures will be slightly above normal inland and near normal along the coast through Friday, then dropping below normal over the weekend and into next week as a large low pressure system develops over the West coast. Skies will be mostly clear except for night and morning low clouds and fog across the coast and valley areas.
(tdy-Sat), 03/110 PM.
Increasing dry northerly flow has managed to clear the stratus from most of the Central Coast this afternoon and it looks like this will remain the case at least for the next day or two. This pattern is also creating some gusty winds across the coastal areas and through the Gaviota pass where gradients are expected to increase to 3-4mb from the north. Latest hi res models keep winds mostly below advisory levels so for now no wind hazards are in effect but this could change. The shift in wind direction has created significant warming for inland portions of the Central Coast with temps up 5-10 degrees. Likely a similar pattern Thursday, then turning cooler with a return of the marine layer Friday and through the weekend.
Elsewhere, a similar story with regard to temperatures where many inland areas today are up 5-10 degrees, but along the coast very little change. The marine layer was around 2200 feet this morning and forecast sounding show slight lowering tonight, so likely a little less and/or earlier clearing across some of the valleys but still starting off the day with low clouds and fog for most coastal areas. Temps expected to be close to today's levels in most areas, meaning near normal at the coast and 4-8 degrees above normal inland.
Going forward, a cooling trend is expected to start Friday as a large upper low moves over the West coast. 2-4 degrees of cooling is expected each day through Sat. A deepening marine layer is expected as well, leading to much later clearing times, possibly not clearing some coastal areas through the afternoon.
(Sun-Wed), 03/121 PM.
Lower confidence in the 4-7 day forecast as some of the ensemble models are suggesting the upper low arriving later this week may linger longer into next week. This would not an unusual pattern for this time of year and would not be surprised to see June gloom conditions continuing longer. The model percentages seem to be favoring that situation at least for now but possibly only by about a 60/40 chance. If the warmer situation prevails the difference would likely only be on the order of around 5 degrees with highs 3-6 degrees above normal so the impacts would be relatively minor.
03/1710z.
At 1700Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1900 feet deep. The top of the inversion was near 4200 feet with a temperature of 23 degrees Celsius.
For 18Z TAF package, high confidence in forecasts for KPRB, KWJF and KPMD with VFR conditions expected.
For all other TAFs, moderate confidence in current forecasts. Timing of flight category changes could be +/- 3 hours of current forecasts.
KLAX, Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. Timing of return of CIG/VSBY restrictions could be +/- 3 hours of current 08Z forecast. There is a 30% chance that CIGs could return at MVFR levels tonight. No significant easterly wind component is expected.
KBUR, Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. There is a 20-30% chance of IFR CIGs in the 08Z-16Z time frame.
03/110 PM.
For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Through Thursday morning, high confidence in GALE force winds and GALE WARNINGS will remain in effect. From Thursday afternoon through Monday, high confidence in combination of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas with a 20-30% chance of Gale force winds (especially across PZZ670).
For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Through this evening, there is a 60-80% chance of GALE force winds and a GALE WARNING remains in effect. From later tonight through Monday, there is a 60-80% chance of SCA level winds in the afternoon and evening hours with seas approaching SCA levels at times.
For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. For a majority of the southern Inner Waters, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels through Monday. The only exception will be the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel where there is a 60-80% chance of SCA level winds this evening and overnight and a 30-40% chance on Saturday and Sunday.
Ca, NONE. PZ, Gale Warning in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM PDT Thursday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 6 PM this evening to 3 AM PDT Thursday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect until 9 AM PDT Thursday for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 9 AM to 9 PM PDT Thursday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 6 PM PDT this evening for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM PDT Thursday for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
