26/610 PM.
High pressure aloft with locally gusty north winds will result in very warm temperatures on Friday, with some record highs likely. Steady cooling will then follow Saturday through early next week as onshore flow returns. Fog is likely over coastal areas Friday through Sunday, with dense fog possible Friday and Saturday.
(Thu-Sun), 26/643 PM.
***UPDATE***
The forecast remains on track. Bumped up a few max temperatures for Friday based on highs this afternoon. While several sites in LA County will be near record high - it is still a February high and only getting into the high 80s to low 90s. Temps should cool by about five degrees in most coast and valley locations by Saturday.
***From Previous Discussion***
Forecast remains on track. Healthy north-to-south surface pressure gradients combined with modest upper level support will cause the north to northeast winds to peak tonight into early Friday. While some stations will likely touch into the 40 mph neighborhood, and several valley areas will see breezes, without any cold air to mix winds down, the stronger north winds will be more localized than normal and mainly confined to the hills. As a result, not seeing this as a widespread wind event, but did go ahead and add low-end Wind Advisories for the coastal areas of San Luis Obispo County and the Santa Lucia range. These winds will lower through the day on Friday and turn onshore in some areas later Friday and all areas by Saturday.
Temperatures will peak on Friday with the high pressure and wind ingredients peak. Upped temperatures a little more with most coastal and valley areas in the mid 80s to lower 90s (15-25 degrees above normal) and may even need to be upped a few more degrees. As it stands, the current forecast has temperatures meeting or exceeding calendar day records at Downtown Los Angeles, Long Beach, Burbank, Woodland Hills, and UCLA. Temperatures will steadily decline each day through the weekend with the weakening high and return to onshore flow. The marine layer should also make a triumphal return as well.
Considered issuing a Heat Advisory for Friday as it is close, but with the brevity of the event and decent relief overnight, held off on issuing anything. Could see future shifts issuing one. Regardless, the risk for heat illness is elevated and folks should limit any strenuous activities Friday afternoon.
(Mon-Thu), 26/229 PM.
A weak upper level low pressure system will skirt through interior California on Monday. While no rain is expected (except for a small chance on the north slopes), this will continue the cooling train into Monday when temperatures return to normal. The cold air aloft will likely disrupt and marine layer low clouds that form over the weekend. Temperatures change little through the middle of the week.
The low will also stir up some gusty west to northwest winds which will likely impact the coastal and mountain areas.
27/0206z.
At 0045Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer. There was a surface based inversion with a top near 2000 feet and a temperature of 25 degrees C.
Overall, high confidence in the 00Z TAF Package. VFR conds with SCT- BKN high clouds at times expected through the forecast period. KPRB has a 30-40 percent chance of fog, otherwise likely LIFR conds between 12Z-17Z. Breezy NE winds will affect portions of the area tonight into Friday afternoon.
KLAX, High confidence in the 00Z TAF with VFR conds expected and no significant east wind component.
KBUR, High confidence in the 00Z TAF with VFR conds expected.
26/821 PM.
Seas will remain relatively small across the Coastal waters through at least the beginning of next week.
Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level NW winds of 15-25 knots will be common across the Outer Waters south and west of Point Sal through Friday morning. However, SCA gusts will also affect the northern outer waters (PZZ670) through late tonight. Conditions are likely to fall below advisory levels by late Friday morning through Saturday morning, then are expected to ramp up Saturday and Sunday south of Point Conception. These SCA winds are expected to strengthen and become widespread to include the northern waters by Mid-week. There is a moderate chance for GALES during this period.
For the inner waters south of Point Conception, gusty winds will flirt with advisory levels through the evening across the western portion of the Santa Barbara Channel and near the Channel Islands. Locally gusty offshore winds below canyons nearshore from Point Mugu to Malibu is likely later this evening into the overnight timeframe. SCA conditions confined to western portions of the SB Channel is possible on Saturday, but likely to expand and include eastern portions Sunday and Monday. Strongest on Monday with a 10% chance of Gale Force wind gusts.
Ca, Wind Advisory in effect until 2 PM PST Friday for zones 340>342. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Friday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 10 AM PST Friday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
