21/108 PM.
Cooler weather is expected through the weekend with most areas experiencing temperatures within a few degrees of normal by Saturday. Low clouds and fog develop near the coast and push into the valleys overnight for the next several night. Additional cooling is expected next week with most areas between 4 and 8 degrees below normal.
(Thu-Sun), 21/843 PM.
***UPDATE***
Marine layer clouds have returned, leading to significant cooling at the coasts. Otherwise, a rather uneventful day with some breezy west winds in the Antelope Valley and foothills. Will likely need to cool the coasts further for Friday given an expanding marine layer and good onshore flow. Gusty onshore winds will trend stronger over the interior over the next few days but generally expecting gusts to not exceed 40 mph.
***From Previous Discussion***
A relatively quiet period of weather expected for the next several days as a weak trough persists along the California coast. Cooling began today for coast and coastal valleys and that will expand to include the interior areas on Friday. May Gray conditions will then dominate the pattern for the next week at least, but generally clearing to within a mile or two of the coast each afternoon. By the weekend high temperatures for most coast and valley areas will be 2-4 degrees below normal while far interior areas like the Antelope Valley will still be a few degrees above normal.
(Mon-Thu), 21/205 PM.
A low pressure system will move into the Pac NW Monday and move into the northern Rockies Tuesday and Wednesday. This may result in some increasing northwest winds across the coastal waters as well as the Central Coast and southwest Santa Barbara County. Elsewhere though, likely much of the same with the usual marine layer stratus to start the day across most coast/valley areas and temperatures continuing to cool a 1-2 degrees each day through Tuesday.
There is increasing uncertainty with the upper level pattern following that trough leading to a lower level of confidence for the middle and end of next week. Today's deterministic EC solution is showing a slower and farther south trajectory of the trough, maintaining cooler temperatures for at least another day or two. However, the ensemble solution favors warming trend the latter half of next week and this is supported by the latest GFS.
22/0107z.
At 0020Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 900 feet deep. The top of the inversion was 2700 feet with a temperature of 22 C.
High confidence in VFR TAFs for KPMD, KWJF, & KPRB.
Moderate confidence in remaining TAFs. Timing of CIG/VSBY restrictions may be off +/- 3 hours and flight minimums by one category. Lowest confidence in KBUR & KVNY which has a 40% chance that CIGs do not arrive.
KLAX, Moderate confidence in TAF. Timing of flight cat changes could be off +/- 2 hours of current forecast. No significant easterly wind component is expected.
KBUR, High confidence in VFR conditions through 06Z Fri. Low confidence thereafter - 40% chance that CIGs do not arrive.
21/741 PM.
For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Through this weekend, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels. However, local SCA level gusts are possible around Point Conception and the Channel Islands during the afternoon/early evening hours. Increasing chances for SCA level winds will return next week. Seas will gradually build possibly nearing SCA levels by mid to late next week.
For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, high confidence in current forecast. Through Monday, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels. Thereafter, chances for SCA level winds will return; highest during the afternoon and evening hours.
For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Through this weekend, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels. However, local SCA level gusts are possible nearshore around Cabrillo during the afternoon hours. On Monday, there is a 20-30% chance of SCA level winds in the afternoon and evening hours across the Santa Barbara Channel; 50-60% chance of SCA level winds on Tuesday.
Ca, NONE. PZ, NONE.
