10/1222 AM.
Benign weather will continue through this week, with a warming trend continuing through Thursday. High temperatures will be well above normal through at least Friday. Offshore flow will produce locally gusty canyon winds in the mornings.
(tdy-Fri), 10/1250 AM.
Chamber of Commerce weather continues today, tomorrow and Friday. High pressure aloft will bring 582 dam hgts to the area (11 dam higher than normal) and offshore flow will continue through the period.
The upper will deflect any mid and high clouds away from the area and the offshore flow will prevent any low clouds from forming.
There is no upper support and despite moderate offshore flow the gusty canyon winds in the morning will not reach advisory levels although isolated mtn ridgetops might. Of note is the very high (8 to 9 mb) offshore gradient between KLAX and KBFL while normally such a gradients would bring strong north winds to the some passes and canyons - this gradient is more the result of the abnormally low max T at KBFL (45 degrees) and the much hier than normal max T at KLAX (81 degrees)
Today will be warmest day of this warm streak. Coastal areas away from the beaches will see highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s with valley locations in the 80s. Max temps will end up 12 to 18 degrees above normal with isolated areas coming in 18 to 22 degrees over normals. Most sites should stay below record values. However, our forecasted numbers are within a couple degrees of daily records such as, Ojai (1958) and Lancaster (1975).
The ridge will weaken both Thu and Fri as will the offshore flow. This will result in a slow cool down. Most cst/vly areas will see 2 to 4 degrees of cooling Thursday. Friday's cooling will be a little more noticeable 3 to 5 degrees. Above normal temps will continue, however, with the csts most 5 to 10 degrees over normal and the vlys 10 to 12 degrees.
(Sat-Tue), 10/307 AM.
Weak troffing will arrive early Saturday and hgts will fall to 578 dam and then to 575 dam on Sunday. Weak onshore flow will develop as well and this will likely bring night through morning low clouds and fog (possibly dense) back to some of the coasts. Max temps will fall 1 to 3 degrees on Saturday and a more noticeable 3 to 6 degrees on Sunday. Despite the cool down max temps will remain 3 to 6 degrees over normals across the csts/vlys and 6 to 12 degrees further inland.
Weak ridging will nose into the state from the west on Monday and persist into Tuesday. Hgts will rise to about 582 dam. At the sfc the the weak onshore flow will turn offshore and on Monday and then become a little more offshore on Tuesday. The ridging and switch to offshore flow will reduce but will likely not eliminate the morning low clouds. Max temps will rise 1 to 3 degrees each day.
The EC/AI mdl shows dry weather continuing until through at least the 21st with the first chc of rain arriving sometime in the 22/23rd time frame.
10/1107z.
At 1018Z at KLAX, There was no marine layer. There was a surfaced based inversion with a top of 1000 ft and a temperature of 24 C.
High confidence in VFR TAFs.
KLAX, High confidence in TAF. Any east wind component will be less than 7 knots.
KBUR, High confidence in VFR TAF.
10/1247 AM.
NE wind gusts of 15 to 25 knots will affect wind prone areas at times through this morning. This includes portions of the Central Coast and from Ventura to Santa Monica. These winds will likely reach low-end Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels for the nearshore waters of San Luis Obispo County. Otherwise, high confidence in fairly calm conditions and lowering seas.
Some dense fog will form in the coastal waters by Thursday or Friday, but low confidence on when and where.
Ca, NONE. PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect until 10 AM PST this morning for zones 645-670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
