16/905 AM.
Dry and warmer weather is expected for the remainder of this week. Gusty northerly winds will develop over mountains and Antelope Valley today, shifting to northeast and becoming focused over Los Angeles and Ventura Counties on Friday. There is a chance of rain next Tuesday.
(tdy-Sat), 16/911 AM.
***UPDATE***
A weak upper low from the southwest is moving over the area today creating lots of high clouds but no rain. Clouds should thin out after noon with clear skies after that and through the weekend. The main issue is the Santa Ana winds coming tomorrow. Models have been slowly backing off the magnitude but still still expecting widespread 20-40 mph winds across the normal areas in LA/Ventura Counties, with isolated peak gusts as high as 60 mph in the mountains.
***From Previous Discussion***
Additional downslope warming off the mountains will push temperatures up into the upper 70s to mid 80s across coasts and valleys.
Gradients and upper support drop off quickly later Friday into Saturday, so much less wind expected. However, temperatures will continue to warm up away from the immediate coast with some upper 80s likely in the warmest valleys and intermediate areas in the mid 80s.
(Sun-Wed), 16/238 AM.
Still a bit of uncertainty in the long term, especially Monday through Wednesday. However, as of now, impacts look to be minimal locally. On Sunday, pressure gradients turn back to onshore ahead of a cold upper level low pressure system that will make its way southward from the Pacific NW through the weak. With the return of onshore gradients, highs will cool several degrees, but highs will remain in the low 80s across the valleys, mid 70s to around 80 in Downtown LA and across other inland coastal areas.
The remainder of the forecast through next week really depends on the track and speed of the cold and cut off upper low sliding down the West Coast. Temperatures will continue to cool, though the amount of daily cooling could be as much as 4-6 degrees or as little as 1-3. Will likely see increasing low clouds and fog for coast and possibly valleys at some point. Rain is a possibility as well, though timing and exact amounts is still uncertain. Rain could fall anywhere between Monday through Wednesday, or not at all. At this time, amounts look to be pretty minimal, with some solutions showing totals around 0.50 inches or less, mainly north of Point Conception.
16/1255z.
At 1220Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1000 feet deep. The top of the inversion was 2200 feet with a temperature of 15 C.
Low to moderate confidence in KLAX, KSMO, and KLGB TAFs through 16Z Thu and again after 05Z Fri. Moderate to high confidence in KSMX and KPRB TAFs through 16Z. Elsewhere and otherwise, high confidence in TAFs.
There is a chance that IFR to low MVFR CIG/VSBY restrictions develop through 16Z Thursday at KSMX (20%) and KPRB (20%), and between 07-16Z Thursday and again after 05Z Friday at KLAX (40%), KLGB (40%), and KSMO (35%). Higher level clouds are obscuring view of low level clouds, and if low clouds do arrive, high clouds may disrupt the marine layer causing IFR/MVR cigs to scatter and reform through 16Z Thu.
KLAX, Low to moderate confidence in TAF through 16Z, and again after 05Z Fri. There is a 40% chance of BKN008-012 conds through 16Z Thu, and again after 05 Fri. No significant east wind component expected, however there is a 30% chance of reaching 6 kt through 15Z this morning, and a 60% chance 10-15Z Fri.
KBUR, High confidence in TAF. No wind issues expected.
16/756 AM.
For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. A combination of (at least) Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas are expected through at least Friday morning, and possibly linger through Friday night. This afternoon through late tonight, there is a 50-60% chance of Gale Force winds and a GALE WARNING has been issued for all Outer water zones. However, localized gale force gusts are possible through this morning. Seas will peak Saturday night into early Friday morning and then diminish below advisory levels through Friday. Saturday through Monday, there is a 20-30% chance of SCA level winds.
For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Through tonight, high confidence in SCA level winds and seas through tonight, with winds strongest during the afternoon and evening hours. There is a 20% chance of GALE force wind gusts across the western portion this evening. Friday through Monday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels.
For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. There is a 60% chc of SCA level winds across the far western portion of the Santa Barbara Channel this afternoon and evening. Otherwise, winds and seas will remain below SCA levels through around midnight. Starting early Friday morning, there is a 50-70% chance of SCA level northeast winds from Ventura south to Santa Monica out to Anacapa Island, and potentially across the San Pedro Channel. From Point Mugu to Malibu on Friday morning, there is a 30% chance for Gale Force winds immediately nearshore especially below any canyons/passes. Saturday through Monday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA criteria for all southern Inner Waters.
Ca, Wind Advisory remains in effect from 2 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening for zones 340-346. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory remains in effect from 7 PM this evening to 8 AM PDT Friday for zone 342. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory remains in effect from 7 PM this evening to 3 AM PDT Friday for zones 349-351-352. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Friday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
