20/1227 PM.
A cooling trend will begin in most areas Thursday as onshore flow returns and strengthens into the weekend. Night and morning low clouds and fog will return to coastal areas and eventually the valleys. By the weekend temperatures will generally within a few degrees of normal, and next week they will be 5 to 10 degrees below normal.
(Wed-Sat), 20/1219 PM.
A weak upper level trough will be moving over the area tonight and Thursday which will start the trend towards onshore flow and cooler temperatures. Coastal areas will notice this the most on Thursday but even the valleys will be at least a few degrees cooler than today. Only the far interior areas will maintain today's temps one more day before the cooler air reaches them on Friday. Overall, getting back to pretty typical weather for May. Low clouds and fog will be returning to the Central Coast tonight and likely to coastal areas south of Pt Conception by Friday and probably getting into the valleys by the weekend and becoming a daily feature through next week. Models have backed off the forecasts of increasing northerly flow across southwest Santa Barbara County so for the time being not expecting any significant Sundowners through at least the weekend.
(Sun-Wed), 20/229 AM.
Very May like weather will be the norm for the 4 day xtnd period. Saggy-baggy troffing will cover most of the state through the period. At the sfc there will be moderate to strong onshore flow to the east and weak to moderate onshore flow to the north. There will be a good dose of night through morning low clouds across most of the coast and many vly areas every day. Due to the strength of the onshore flow some beaches may not clear at all.
The strong onshore flow in the afternoon will generate stronger than normal sea breezes as well as gusty west winds in the Antelope Vly. Additionally the western portion of the SBA south coast will see varying degrees of north winds each evening.
Most areas will cool 1 or 2 degrees each day except perhaps 2 to 4 degrees on Tuesday. Most csts will see max temps in the mid 60s to mid 70s each day with upper 70s to lower 80s in the vlys. Max temps will mostly end up a few degrees below normal across the csts/vlys and the mtns and far interior will end up a few degrees over normal.
21/0411z.
At 0405Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 500 feet deep. The top of the inversion was 1200 feet with a temperature of 26 degrees Celsius.
For 06Z TAFs, high confidence in KPRB, KVNY, KBUR, KPMD and KSBA.
For KOXR and KCMA, there is a 20% chance of LIFR/VLIFR conditions 10Z-16Z.
For KLAX, KSMO, and KLGB, low to moderate confidence in current TAFs as there is a 40-50% chance CIG/VSBY restrictions do not develop.
KLAX, Moderate confidence in 06Z TAF. There is a 50% chance that CIG/VSBY restrictions do not develop. If CIG/VSBY restrictions do develop, flight categories could range from IFR to VLIFR and timing of flight category changes could be +/- 3 hours of current forecasts. No significant easterly wind component is expected.
KBUR, High confidence in 06Z TAF with CAVU conditions anticipated through the period.
20/745 PM.
Moderate confidence in marginal Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds across much of the waters through tonight, with wind gusts 15-25 kt common. Then Thursday through the weekend, northwest winds and wave heights are expected to remain below SCA levels, except for localized gusts to 20-25 kt in the afternoon and evening hours near Point Conception and the western Channel Islands, as well as the San Pedro Channel on Sunday. Northwest winds are expected to increase to SCA levels early next week.
Ca, NONE. PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Thursday for zones 650-670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
