06/812 PM.
Slight warming and offshore winds will return this weekend, followed by a weak to moderate storm system Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures will be much cooler and rain and gusty winds will be possible.
(Fri-Mon), 06/700 PM.
A slow moving upper low pressure system will pass to our southwest through tonight. This low pressure system caused increased instability earlier this afternoon across the mountains, generating some showers and isolated thunderstorms. As of this evening, the convection has diminished. As the low pressure system pulls to the south overnight, some upper level ridging will build into the region from the eastern Pacific. Current satellite imagery showing low clouds and patchy fog returning to portions of the Central Coast this evening, and is expected to expand across coastal and some coastal valley areas overnight south of Point Conception.
While pressure gradients trended weakly onshore today, they will shift once again to weakly offshore by Saturday morning. This will help to scour out some of the residual low level moisture, and bring a warming trend to much of the region through the weekend. The gusty north to northeast winds are expected to impact all four counties, but should remain below advisory levels. Some cooling is likely by Monday ahead of what looks to be a more significant pattern change towards unsettled weather.
(Tue-Fri), 06/157 PM.
Moist west to southwest flow with a series of storms looks to set up by Tuesday and potentially continue well into the following week, kicking off what looks like another stretch of active weather. Below normal confidence on the timing and strength of this activity, although shower activity will mostly be on the weak to moderate side through at least Friday. Snow levels will likely initially be above 7000 feet, but may fall to around 6000 feet with light accumulations possible above those levels. Increased cloud cover and weak troughiness will support near to slightly below temperatures through this period. Gusty southwest to northwest winds are likely at times, but mainly below advisory levels outside of wind prone areas.
There is a 60-70 percent chance of above normal precipitation February 12-16 (next Thursday through the following Monday). Or in other words active weather is likely to continue at times through at least the 6-10 day period.
07/0536z.
At 0413Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1900 feet deep with an inversion to 4000 feet and a maximum temperature of 13 C.
High confidence in VFR TAFs for KPMD and KWJF.
Moderate confidence in remaining TAFs, due to uncertainty with regards to ceiling hieghts and timing. There is a 40% chance of no cigs forming overnight at KVNY, KBUR, KPRB, and KOXR, and a 30% chance for other sites where cigs are forecast.
KLAX, Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 30% chance for no cigs tonight, but if cigs do form, 007-012 feet will likely be the minimum height. Moderate confidence in any east wind component remaining below 8 kt.
KBUR, Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 40% chance of no cigs forming overnight, but if cigs do form, 005-010 feet will likely be the minimum height.
06/232 PM.
A long period west swell is impacting the region, with seas of 9-12 feet across the inner waters along the Central Coast and the outer waters from Point Piedras south to San Nicolas Island. Seas will start to decrease on Saturday, but northwest winds will increase around the same time. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds in the 20-30 knots range will be common across the Outer Waters and along the Central Coast into at least early next week. There is a 40-60% chance for low end Gale Force winds (35-40 knots) during this timeframe, highest chances Sunday afternoon and night.
West to northwest winds will make their way into the waters south of Point Conception Saturday and Sunday afternoon, although likely staying below SCA levels, except for localized gusts to 25 knots. Offshore flow will bring 15-25 knot winds to nearshore areas from Ventura to Santa Monica late Saturday into Monday afternoon, with strongest winds likely along the Malibu Coast late Saturday through Sunday early afternoon.
Choppy waves will be the result of the increase in winds and ocean conditions will remain hazardous into at least Monday, and there is a moderate chance for patchy dense fog through at least Saturday morning.
06/146 PM.
A long period west swell has reached the coastal waters today, resulting in high surf focused across west facing beaches through Saturday night. Elevated surf will likely continue into next week.
Refer to the SRFLOX and CFWLOX products for more details on the High Surf Advisories along the coast.
Ca, High Surf Advisory in effect until 9 PM PST Saturday for zones 340-346-349-350-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Monday for zones 645-670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
