02/305 AM.
Onshore flow will continue to bring low clouds to the coasts and coastal valleys each night and morning. Weaker onshore flow, will bring decreasing clouds to the valleys with gradually warming temperatures. Expect a return to near- normal temperatures by early next week with 90s for many valley locations by that time.
(tdy-Sat), 02/841 AM.
***UPDATE***
Top of the marine layer is sitting at just over 3K ft. Onshore flow will begin to weaken today as pressure heights rise over the next several days. This will mean a thinning marine layer and a gradual warming trend, although daytime temperatures will still remain below normal through the weekend. Come early next week, high pressure over the southwest will build into southern CA, leading to enhanced warming. Valleys will warm into the upper-80s to low 90s across more of the area during this time, which could begin to introduce some minor heat risk across the area. Expect breezy winds across the Antelope and San Luis Obispo Valleys daily, as well as breezy sundowner winds early next week in the Santa Barbara area, although speeds look to remain sub-Advisory across the board.
***From Previous Discussion***
Very uneventful weather on tap heading into and through the holiday weekend. Weak cyclonic flow will persist over Srn CA through Friday with weak SW linear flow setting up Saturday. Hgts will rise through the period from about 581 dam Wednesday afternoon to 590 dam Saturday afternoon due to an upper high to the SE gradually becoming more dominate. At the sfc mdt to stg onshore flow will persist although it will weaken by around a half mb each day.
Marine layer clouds will slowly form each evening and overnight across the csts and most vlys. Clearing will be slow as well with most locations not seeing Sun until the late morning or early afternoon.
The rising hgts and offshore trends will bring a three day warming trend to areas away from the the beaches. The vlys will see max temps warm from near 80 degrees today to the mid and upper 80s Saturday. The warming will be less dramatic across the csts due to the strong onshore flow will max temps rising from the mid 70s to the upper 70s. Even with the 3 day warming trend max temps will still end up 3 to 6 degrees blo normal on Saturday.
The stg onshore flow to the east will bring gusty sub-advisory winds each afternoon across the western Antelope Valley with gusts to around 35 mph (and isolated gusts to 45 mph in the western foothills)
(Sun-Wed), 02/1005 AM.
Temperatures will continue to warm during the extended timeframe due to rising pressure heights, weaker onshore flow and thus a thinner marine layer.
500 mb ensembles suggest that high pressure will strengthen and take firm hold of our weather pattern come later next week. While temperatures will largely still be near to below normal heading into next week, valley temperatures will warm into 80s and low 90s throughout next week. This could mean minor heat risk introduced into the forecast around this time.
Temperatures will finally warm to within a few degrees of normal by the middle of next week with widespread 80s and even some low 90s in the valleys.
Come early next week, high pressure over the southwest will build into southern CA, leading to enhanced warming. Valleys will warm into the upper-80s to low 90s across more of the area during this time, which could begin to introduce some minor heat risk across the area. Expect breezy winds across the Antelope and San Luis Obispo Valleys daily, as well as breezy sundowner winds early next week in the Santa Barbara area, although speeds look to remain sub- Advisory across the board.
02/1721z.
At 1630Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 3300 feet deep. The top of the inversion was 4800 feet with a temperature of 17 degrees Celsius.
For 18Z TAF package, high confidence in KWJF and KPMD.
For all other sites, moderate confidence in 18Z TAFs. Timing of flight category changes could be up to +/- 2 hours. CIGs may be +/- 500 feet of current forecasts.
KLAX, Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. Timing of flight category changes could be +/- 2 hours of current forecasts. There is a 30% chance that IFR level CIGs could develop 08Z-16Z. No significant easterly wind component is expected.
KBUR, Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. Timing of flight category changes could be +/- 2 hours of current forecasts.
02/709 AM.
For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Friday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels. For Saturday through Monday, there is a 50-70% chance of SCA level winds.
For the Inner Water north of Point Sal, high confidence in current forecast. Today through Sunday, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels. On Monday, there is a 20% chance of SCA level winds in the afternoon and evening hours.
For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Monday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels for most of the southern Inner Waters. The only exception will be the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel where there is a 20% chance of SCA level winds today through Friday then a 30-40% chance of SCA level winds Saturday through Monday.
Ca, NONE. PZ, NONE.
