26/546 PM.
A significant warming trend will begin Monday and last through late in the week as the first Santa Ana wind event of the season develops. The warmest temperatures will be Tuesday and Wednesday. Gusty northwest to north winds will continue in the mountains and portions of Santa Barbara County through Monday, then turning northeast Tuesday through Thursday. No rain chances in the foreseeable future.
(tdy-Wed), 27/334 AM.
Patchy marine layer clouds made a slow appearance overnight, but are gradually pushing into the LA Basin this morning and expected to burn off by the afternoon. Marine layer clouds are expected to be minimal these next few days, as high pressure strengthens across the Great Basin causing the offshore pressure gradients to strengthen as well. As a result, widespread warming will continue across the region these next few days, peaking on Tuesday and Wednesday as the LAX-DAG and LAX-BFL gradients are around -4 to -5 mb.
Coastal areas will likely see the warmest day on Tuesday with the best downsloping effects, while interior areas are a little warmer on Wednesday with less cold advection aloft. High temps will reach the 80s to low 90s across the 4-counties (which is 10-15 degrees above normal for this time of year). Can't rule out some record highs those days, though temperatures would have to be in the higher range of what's expected as records are in the low to mid 90s away from the immediate coast. Downtown LA and other intermediate areas will likely see similarly hot temps both days. With this in mind a Heat Advisory remains in effect for much of the coast and valleys of LA/Ventura Counties. Anyone planning outdoor activities those days, including attending the World Series, should be prepared for unusually hot and dry conditions.
As for the winds, with the strengthening offshore gradients, winds will turn more northeast overnight tonight, picking up across the San Luis Obispo Coastal areas and Santa Lucias this evening into Tuesday morning, where a wind advisory has been issued for the aforementioned time and wind gusts around 45 mph will be possible (maybe even isolated gusts to 50 mph early Tuesday morning). As flow continues to shift NE heading into Tuesday morning, winds will pick up across the typical Santa Ana Corridor of Western L.A./Eastern Ventura Counties. However, this event has more of an easterly component to it, meaning that winds will likely funnel down to Ventura County, and possibly miss the Western San Fernando Valley. Held off on any wind advisories for Tuesday morning for now, as recent model runs trended weaker compared to the previous model runs the day before. However, should wind advisories be needed, the likely locations will be the Santa Clarita Valley, Susana Mountains, the Southeastern Ventura Valleys (including Conejo Valley), the Western Santa Monica Mountains, and possibly the Ventura County Inland Coastal locations. Wind gusts of 30-40 mph will be common across these areas, but isolated gusts of 45 mph is not out of the question at this time. Another round of Santa Ana winds will be possible on Wednesday as well, though at this time not quite as strong as on Tuesday.
(Thu-Sun), 27/215 AM.
The ridge of high pressure will remain in pace through next weekend, resulting in temperatures remaining well above normal for this time of year through the extended period. Offshore pressure gradients will weaken Thursday and Friday, allowing temperatures to cool off slightly (though still remain above normal) as the typical seabreeze kicks back in and the marine layer clouds may return again. However, recent model runs are suggesting that the ridge may strengthen next Saturday and Sunday (Nov. 1 and 2), which might bring another warm up.
27/0045z.
At 2333Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1000 ft deep. The top of the inversion was around 4500 ft with a temperature of 18 deg C.
High confidence in KWJF and KPMD TAFs.
Low to moderate confidence in remainder of TAFs, with the lowest confidence in KSBP, KBUR and KVNY. Timing of flight cat changes this evening/tonight may be off by +/- 3 hours and may be off by one category at times. There is a 20-30% chance of several hours of VLIFR conds from 10Z-17Z Mon at KPRB, KSBP, KSMX, KVNY, and KBUR. For the remaining sites, IFR conds expected for the SBA and Ventura County coastal sites, and IFR to MVFR for the LA Coastal sites.
KLAX, Moderate confidence in the 00Z TAF. Timing of the return of cigs may be off +/- 2 hours this evening/tonight. No significant easterly wind component is expected.
KBUR, Low confidence in the 00Z TAF. Timing of the return of cigs may be off +/- 3 hours this evening/tonight. There is a 20-30% chance of several hours of VSBY between 1/4SM-1SM from 11Z-17Z Mon. There is also a 20-30% chance no CIGs occur.
26/603 PM.
Across the outer waters, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas are expected through at least Monday night. A large NW swell has brought wave heights as high as 19 feet at Cape San Martin, and seas of between 10 to 15 feet will continue to be common along the Central Coast through Monday night. The strongest winds will be focused around Point Conception south to San Nicolas island. Localized borderline GALE force NW wind gusts may occur across this area through the late evening hours today (Sunday). From Tuesday through Friday, low-end SCA conditions are possible mainly 30NM from the shoreline.
Across the inner waters along the Central Coast, SCA level winds and/or seas expected across PZZ645 through Tuesday morning. Starting Monday night, the current NW winds will shift offshore (NE), strongest near Morro Bay, remaining largely offshore through Wednesday morning.
Across the inner waters south of Point Conception, SCA level winds are likely across the western & central-southern portions of the Santa Barbara Channel through this evening. Late Monday night through Tuesday morning, near SCA level N-NE Santa Ana winds are likely to impact the nearshore waters along the Ventura and Malibu coastlines, and then redeveloping Tuesday night. Additionally, there is a small chance that the NE winds will reach Anacapa and Santa Cruz Islands on Tuesday morning.
Ca, High Surf Advisory in effect until 9 AM PDT Tuesday for zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM PDT Tuesday for zones 340>342-345. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory remains in effect until 6 AM PDT early this morning for zones 349-351-352-378-381. (See LAXNPWLOX). Heat Advisory remains in effect from 10 AM Tuesday to 7 PM PDT Wednesday for zones 354-355-358-362-366>375-548. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect until noon PDT Tuesday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
