13/341 AM.
Temperatures will largely be below normal today, with low clouds widespread during the morning. Chances are high for widespread sunshine by the afternoon. Gusty winds are expected times across the mountains and deserts. Slight warming is expected Thursday and Friday, and above normal temperatures are possible early next week.
(tdy-Fri), 13/329 AM.
May Gray is here and the marine layer is currently 3000 to 4000 feet deep with low clouds overspread across most coasts and valleys. Light drizzle will be possible through this morning, with the greatest chances along the Central Coast. Patchy high clouds may occasionally disturb the marine layer resulting in brief scattered skies. Onshore surface pressure gradients will not be as strong as yesterday, so while clearing will be slow, sunnies skies are likely across the area by early afternoon. However reverse clearing will be possible, where clouds at the beaches clear out before the valleys and foothills. Northwest flow and cold air advection associated with weak troughing will yield much cooler temperatures across the interior (low 80s common). The decrease in temperature contrast between the coast and the interior will result in weaker onshore flow and thus increased sunshine and warmer temperatures at the beaches and coastal valleys today. Highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s will be common.
Thursday through Friday, 500 mb heights will trend upwards gradually and moderate- to- strong onshore surface pressure gradients will persist. Overngiht through morning marine layer clouds will continue to be the main weather feature. Temperatures will increase slightly on Thursday (due to marginally weaker onshore flow), and change little on Friday. Expect highs in the upper 60s to upper 70s to be common late this week across the beaches and coastal valleys, with 80s across the interior deserts/valleys.
Breezy northwest to southwest winds are expected during the afternoons and evenings. There is a chance of reaching advisory levels for areas prone to northwest winds (southwest Santa Barbara County & I-5 corridor in the mountains) this evening and again as early as Friday afternoon.
(Sat-Tue), 13/340 AM.
Generally benign weather is expected through the weekend, however there is some uncertainty with regards to the exact synoptic pattern. A passing trough has the chance to bring gusty winds and cooler than normal temperatures to the area over the weekend. Very warm conditions will become possible early next week, particularly for the interior. At this point, ensemble surface pressure gradients indicate that offshore flow will likely not be strong enough to completely deter marine layer clouds. Thus temperatures at the beaches, and perhaps some inland coastal areas, may stay in the 60s. Monday and Tuesday, there is a chance to see a 30+ degree difference between daytime highs at the beaches compared to the deserts, rather like what was observed the past couple days.
13/1150z.
At 0808Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 2900 ft deep. The top of the inversion was at 5200 ft with a temperature of 16 C.
High confidence in VFR conditions at KPMD and KWJF. High confidence in ceilings at all other airports, though timing of flight cat changes may be off by 2 hours. MVFR cigs will be most common, but brief IFR ceilings are possible almost everywhere through 15Z Wed and again from 10Z-15Z Thu.
KLAX, Low confidence on timing of any cig clearing and arrival. Moderate confidence in ceiling height. High confidence in any east winds staying under 8 knots.
KBUR, Moderate confidence in ceiling height, clearing/arrival may be off by 2 hours.
13/215 AM.
For the outer waters from the Central Coast to San Nicolas Island, high confidence in Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds and seas developing Wednesday and lasting through at least Thursday Night, except for a a likely brief break Wednesday 9am to 2pm. Moderate risk of Gale Force winds as early as Friday and peaking over the weekend, with large 10+ foot steep seas.
SCY conditions likely for the nearshore Central Coast waters each afternoon and evening through Thursday, with stronger winds and building seas Friday through the weekend.
Winds will stay under SCY for all other waters through at least Thursday, with a moderate risk of SCY conditions by the weekend.
Over the weekend, The combination of high winds and seas could result in hazardous surfing conditions and minor coastal flooding especially across more unprotected west-facing beaches such as along the Ventura coastline. Stay tuned for future updates.
Ca, NONE. PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 9 AM this morning to 9 AM PDT Thursday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM PDT Thursday for zone 673. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM PDT Thursday for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
