07/207 PM.
Moderate heat impacts will continue through Friday away from the coast in response to a strong ridge building over the region. Some relief from the heat is likely this weekend as the ridge breaks down and opens the door for possible monsoon showers or thunderstorms.
(Tue-Fri), 07/207 PM.
High confidence in moderate heat risk away from the coast through at least Thursday in response to a ridge peaking near 596 dm over the region Wednesday and Thursday before gradually weakening and shifting into the Four Corners region this weekend. No changes to the associated Heat Advisory that runs through Friday.
Heat will peak for most areas Wednesday and Thursday before a decent cooling trend begins Friday. Peak highs are expected to be 70s to mid 80s near the coast, 90-105 valleys and lower mountains/desert.
Advisory level Sundowner winds are expected again this evening (advisory in effect) and possible again Wednesday and Thursday evenings for Southwest Santa Barbara County. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected for this area as well as interior areas due to combined hot, dry, and breezy conditions.
Night to morning low clouds will mostly be relegated to the Central Coast, although an eddy in response to the Sundowner winds may squeeze pockets of low clouds and dense fog under the building ridge, especially for southern Los Angeles County.
(Sat-Tue), 07/206 PM.
The ridge at least briefing breaks down this weekend before likely nosing back into the region during the middle part of next week. Broad southeast to southerly flow aloft will support a 10-20 percent chance (highest mountains and deserts) of monsoon showers or thunderstorms this weekend into next week. The added moisture may add to at least low to moderate heat risk in the region, with heat potentially building closer to the coast.
08/0417z.
At 0346z at KLAX, there was no marine layer. There was a surface based inversion with a top of 2000 ft deep with a temperature of 27 C.
High confidence in VFR for KVNY, KPMD and KWJF. Moderate confidence in remaining TAFs, cigs may be off by 1-3 hours. Low confidence in cigs for KSBA and southward, but there is a 30% chance for brief cigs.
KLAX, Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 40 percent chc of no low clouds developing this evening. Low clouds could arrive as late a 14Z. Good confidence that any east wind component will be AOB 5kt.
KBUR, High confidence in TAF.
07/849 PM.
High confidence in Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level NW winds persisting through at least Thursday across the Outer Waters. There is a 50-70% chance of Gale Force winds Wednesday afternoon and again Thursday afternoon and evening. Winds will likely be strongest near Point Conception and the Channel Islands, extending south to San Nicolas Island. Short- period, advisory level, choppy seas will gradually increase in height, reaching around 10 ft by mid- week and then subsiding below advisory levels Friday into the weekend.
SCA level NW-W winds will affect the inner waters along the Central Coast and the Santa Barbara Channel greatest during the afternoon and evening hours through at least Thursday. There is a 40% chance of Gales across the nearshore waters along the Central Coast and the Santa Barbara Channel in the afternoons/evenings through Thursday.
For the inner waters adjacent to Los Angeles County, moderate confidence in SCA level gusts through tonight. Otherwise, conds are expected to remain below SCA levels.
Ca, Heat Advisory remains in effect until 8 PM PDT Friday for zones 38-88-343>345-353-372-373-375>380-548. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect until 8 AM PDT Wednesday for zones 349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX). Heat Advisory remains in effect from 10 AM Wednesday to 8 PM PDT Friday for zone 368. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Thursday for zones 645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT Wednesday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect from 3 PM Wednesday to 3 AM PDT Thursday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 AM to 3 PM PDT Wednesday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
