21/844 AM.
Despite noticeable cooling today temperatures will remain well above normal. Areas of dense coastal fog are possible this the weekend as well. Temperatures will trend upward again next week but are not expected to be as hot as this week.
(tdy-Mon), 21/854 AM.
***UPDATE***
Temperatures are trending 5-10 degrees cooler today in all areas except the deserts. This has been expected due to weakening high pressure aloft and increasing onshore flow. Temperatures will still be above normal but only by 10-15 degrees instead of 20-30 as has been the coast most of the week. Dense fog has returned to portions of the coast and the coastal waters this morning and will likely continue into Sunday morning.
Probably no significant changes to the rest of the 7 day forecast. Did notice that forecast gradients are not as strong from the north as models have been advertising the last few days so if this pans out then north winds will not be as strong as initially expected next week and temperatures may not be quite as warm.
***From Previous Discussion***
The ridge will flatten out today as some energy moves into the north of the state. More importantly there will be onshore (albeit weak) flow both to the east and north. All mdls are forecasting that a shallow marine layer cloud deck will form towards dawn, but not sure this is going to happen as skies are very clear right now. Some high clouds to the west will move over the area today and skies will be partly cloudy at times. The big news is that the onshore flow and falling hgts will lead to 8 to 12 degrees of cooling. Even with this very noticeable cooling max temps will still end up 10 to 15 degrees above normal. Still this cooling is enough to eliminate the need for heat advisories.
The onshore flow will continue tonight and into the morning and there will be another chc of coastal low clouds esp south of Pt Conception. The falling hgts should lift the marine layer enough to preclude the formation of dense fog.
Hgts fall to 581 dam on Sunday but some offshore flow from the north develops. This will not only chase away the low clouds by mid morning but it will also create pockets of warming. While most areas will only see a degree or two of warming the SBA south coast will see 5 or so degrees of warming due to the north flow off of the Santa Ynez Range. Sunday's max temps will end up 12 to 18 degrees warmer than normal.
The upper high begins to reassert itself on Monday with hgts rise to 588 dam. Weak onshore flow to the east continue, but the offshore flow from the north will strengthen. There may be a little marine layer clouds in the morning near Long Beach but aside from that skies will be sunny. Max temps will respond by warming 2 to 4 degrees. The csts will end up mostly in the 80s and the vlys will reach the lower to mid 90s. There is a small chance that some heat advisories may be needed but more likely they wont be needed until Tuesday.
(Tue-Fri), 21/251 AM.
Tuesday through Thursday will be very warm days, but will not be record breaking like last week's. The upper high will not be overhead and hgts will be a few dam lower. Additionally while there will be offshore flow from the north there will be onshore flow to the east. Highs will continue in the 80s and 90s or 15 to 20 degrees above normal. There may be a need for heat advisories in the vlys but no warnings are anticipated.
The ridge weakens some on Friday and the onshore push to the east increases. This will likely bring 3 to 5 degrees of cooling to the csts and 1 to 3 degrees in the vlys.
There is growing confidence that the rest of the month will be dry. The AI-mdls still show some chc of light rain at the beginningof April.
21/1608z.
At 1600Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 800 feet deep. The top of the inversion was 2300 feet with a temperature of 24 degrees Celsius.
For 18Z TAF package, high confidence in KPRB, KSBP, KSMX, KBUR, KVNY, KPMD and KWJF.
For KSBA, KOXR, KCMA, KSMO, KLAX and KLGB, moderate confidence in 18Z TAFs. Lower confidence due to uncertainties in timing of CIG/VSBY restrictions tonight (could be +/- 3 hours of current forecasts) and flight category (could range from IFR to VLIFR).
KLAX, Overall, moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. Timing of flight changes this evening/overnight could be +/- 3 hours of current forecasts. Also, there is a 30% chance of VLIFR conditions 07Z-14Z. No significant easterly wind component is expected.
KBUR, High confidence in 18Z TAF as VFR conditions are expected through the period.
21/643 AM.
For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. From today through Wednesday, high confidence in Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and/or seas. GALE Warning has been issued for PZZ670 in effect from this evening thru early Sunday morning. Additionally, there is a 20-40% chance of GALE FORCE winds on Wednesday.
For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Through this afternoon, moderate confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. From this afternoon through Wednesday, there is a 50-70% chance of SCA level winds in the afternoon and evening hours.
For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. For most of the southern Inner Waters, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels through Wednesday. The only exception will be the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel where there is a 30-50% chance of SCA level winds each afternoon and evening thru aforementioned period.
Ca, NONE. PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect from 6 PM this evening to 3 AM PDT Sunday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 6 PM PDT this evening for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect from 6 PM this evening to 5 AM PDT Sunday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday for zone 673. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 6 PM this evening to 3 AM PDT Monday for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
