22/201 PM.
Hotter than normal conditions will continue through at least early next week, especially starting Thursday. The hot daytime and warm night conditions will bring elevated risks for heat illness. Thursday through Sunday will generally be the hottest of the next seven days. Gusty north winds will affect some areas through Friday.
(Wed-Sat), 22/851 PM.
***UPDATE***
Plenty of marine layer clouds hampered warming near the coasts today, with the Central Coast experiencing a nice cool down with highs in the 60s to mid 70s. The Ventura and LA coastal areas also saw some relief with high temperatures in the 70s. However, sundowner winds ramped up quickly, with north winds of 30-40 mph and gusts in the 50s supported by a very strong offshore gradient of 6.1 mb. These winds helped temperatures warmed into the 80s to mid 90s. Marine layer clouds should return to the coasts north of Point Conception tonight, so did adjust temperatures down in this area for Thursday. Otherwise, temperatures look generally on track with heat continuing for many valleys, mountains, and the interior.
***From Previous Discussion***
A huge area of high pressure, currently centered over north Texas and covering most of the southern half of the United States, will drive our weather well into next week. The core of the high will shift towards the west through Saturday and eventually settle over New Mexico and Arizona. Meanwhile, the mid-level flow will become more northerly by tomorrow while low-level onshore flow weakens. The building high pressure and shift in winds will drive a significant warm up that will really kick in Thursday. High temperatures of 97 to 107 will be common for most valleys and lower mountains by Friday, with highs of 85 to 95 over inland coastal areas. Being the hottest time of the year, most records look safe, but we might see a valley record or two fall. While beaches areas will only see highs in the 80s, the warmer than normal water temperatures will keep things muggy and unpleasant. Minimum temperatures will also be 5 to 10 degrees above normal overall, except 10 to 15 degrees above normal for the mountains and foothills. This means that the overnight relief that many depend on to cool their homes and their bodies will be less than usual. The one exception will be the Central Coast, where a shallow marine layer should keep temperatures warm but very moderated.
The suite of Heat Warnings and Advisories remain in play through Monday, with an emphasis on Thursday through Sunday. Decided to amplify the beaches heat message by having them all be under an Advisory through Monday (except for the Central Coast). One could justify some localized Warnings in the Advisory area for a day or two, but will continue the long-duration Advisory to simplify the message. The risk for heat illness is high, especially for sensitive groups like the very young, the very old, those without air conditioning, and those active outdoors.
There will be a little wind to deal with as well, mainly over southern Santa Barbara County, the I-5 Corridor, and the western Antelope Valley through Thursday or Friday Night. Expecting northwesterly to north gusts of 30 to 50 mph in those areas. A Wind Advisory remains in effect for tonight over southwest Santa Barbara County where the winds will be the strongest of the bunch. The winds weaken a touch Thursday night with a 30 percent chance of a Wind Advisory.
Mountain thunderstorm chances are not zero but low. The best window right now looks to be Friday and Saturday afternoons, but even then the thunderstorm chances are no higher than 10 percent.
(Sun-Wed), 22/221 PM.
The high pressure area will continue to dominate the southwest United States through most of next week. Little change to the heat expected from Saturday to Sunday, followed by a gradual and minor decrease in temperatures each day through Wednesday.
23/0140z.
At 0037Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 300 ft deep. The top of the inversion was at 4600 ft with a max temperature of 27 C.
High confidence in VFR TAFs for KPMD, KWJF, KBUR, & KVNY.
Moderate confidence in coastal TAFs due to uncertainty in marine layer clouds. Good confidence in cigs for KSMX and KSBP, with lower confidence for KOXR, KSMO, KLAX, and KLGB.
KLAX, Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 10-20% chance for LIFR/IFR CIGs from 23/12Z-14Z. No significant east wind component expected.
KBUR, High confidence in TAF. VFR conditions with no wind issues expected.
22/850 PM.
Widespread Small Craft Advisory (SCA) NW winds will likely continue through the weekend across the Outer Waters. Seas will near 10 ft at times starting early Thursday. GALE WARNINGS are in effect for zones PZZ673/676 through tonight. Local gusts may reach 35 kt nearshore the Santa Barbara South Coast tonight. Gale Force wind gusts will be possible again (30% chance) Thursday afternoon and evening across the Outer Waters. SCA winds will reach into the nearshore waters along the Central Coast and SB Channel at times through the forecast period.
22/851 PM.
A long period, southern hemisphere swell will arrive later this week and will add to the continuing swell from Hurricane Fausto.
As a result, Beach Hazard Statements for Los Angeles and Ventura county coastlines remain in effect through the weekend. Refer to CFWLOX & SRFLOX for more details.
The Eastern Pacific looks to remain active over the next couple of weeks. This could result in additional southerly swells to impact the coastline.
Ca, Heat Advisory remains in effect until 8 PM PDT Monday for zones 38-88-342>345-348-351>353-355>358-368>382-548. (See LAXNPWLOX). Heat Advisory now in effect until 8 PM PDT Monday for zones 349-350. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory remains in effect until 6 AM PDT Thursday for zones 349-351-352. (See LAXNPWLOX). Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Sunday evening for zones 354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). Heat Advisory in effect from 10 AM Thursday to 8 PM PDT Monday for zones 354-362-366-367. (See LAXNPWLOX). Extreme Heat Warning in effect from 10 AM Thursday to 8 PM PDT Monday for zone 383. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect from noon Thursday to 3 AM PDT Saturday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 11 PM PDT this evening for zone 655. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Thursday for zone 655. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Saturday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Thursday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 AM Thursday to 3 AM PDT Saturday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
