07/1212 AM.
Benign weather will continue through the weekend with a small chance of morning low clouds and fog along the Los Angeles coast. A significant warming trend will begin today with temperatures well above normal Monday through next Friday, peaking Tuesday through Thursday. Offshore winds will increase Sunday and Monday, and are expected to persist through much of the week.
(tdy-Wed), 07/1258 PM.
Overall, 12Z models in good synoptic agreement through the short term period. At upper levels, a ridge, centered over the Eastern Pacific, will gradually strengthen over the area. At the surface, weak to moderate offshore gradients will prevail.
Forecast-wise, two main issues will be winds and temperatures. With respect to winds, the offshore pressure gradients will help generate some Santa Ana winds across Ventura/LA counties and weaker northeasterly winds across San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara counties. Gradients look to peak in strength on Tuesday morning, but throughout the short term period, the upper level support remains limited. So, do not anticipate any widespread advisory level winds through Monday, but a 30-40% chance of some advisories being needed on Tuesday morning (based on latest high resolution ensemble data). Future shifts will need to monitor this potential for Tuesday.
As for temperatures, the combination of the upper level ridge strengthening and the offshore surface pressure gradients, a nice warming trend is expected. By Tuesday and Wednesday, most areas will be 10-15 degrees above normal with widespread 80+ degree temperatures across the valleys and inland coastal plain. No record-breaking temperatures are expected, but it will be rather warm. As for overnight lows, it will be chilly in wind sheltered areas.
Finally with respect to clouds, there is a 20-30% chance of some stratus/fog tonight/Monday across the LA coastal plain. Otherwise, mostly clear skies are expected for the area through Wednesday.
(Thu-Sun), 07/1258 PM.
Overall, the 12Z models have the same broad idea, but differ in the details. However, the differences will have minimal impact on the overall sensible weather.
Through the period, the upper level ridge is forecast to weaken. At the surface, the offshore flow will weaken with weak diurnal flow expected by the weekend. So, will anticipate a slight and gradual cool down through the period with a decrease in northeasterly winds. By the weekend, there is a decent chance that the marine layer stratus/fog will return to the coastal plain. Overall, just rather benign weather through next week.
07/1936z.
At 1822Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 500 feet deep. The top of the inversion was 2500 feet with a temperature of 19 C.
Moderate to high confidence in KSBA, KOXR, KSMO, KLAX, and KLGB after 03Z Monday, otherwise high confidence for all TAFs. There is a 30% chance of conds remaining VFR through the period at KLAX. There is a 30% chance of VLIFR to LIFR conds at the specified aforementioned sites, with conds potentially arriving as early as 03Z Mon for KSMO, KLAX, and KLGB and around 09Z for KOXR and KSBA.
KLAX, Good confidence in TAF. There is a 30% chance of VFR conds persisting through the period, otherwise LIFR-IFR conds could arrive as early as 03Z Mon. Any easterly winds will remain less than 7 knots.
KBUR, High confidence in VFR TAF.
07/1113 AM.
For the outer waters, there is a 40-60% chance of low-end Small Craft Advisory (SCA) conditions through the week, especially across the western portions of the waters north of Santa Cruz Island during the afternoon and evening hours.
For the inner waters including the southern California bight and the nearshore waters along the Central Coast, there is a 30-50% of local northeast SCA level wind gusts from Ventura to Santa Monica as well as from Pismo Beach to Point Piedras Blancas each night and morning through Tuesday, and a 30% chance of reoccurring on Wednesday. Otherwise, winds and seas should remain below SCA levels.
There is a moderate chance of dense fog over the coastal waters through Monday morning. Confidence remains low on timing and coverage.
Ca, NONE. PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Tuesday for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
