28/124 AM.
Night through morning low clouds will prevail through most of this week, with temperatures well below normal through at least Thursday. Modest warming likely to follow. A few spits of drizzle is possible, especially on Monday. Gusty winds will continue over the interior mountains and deserts, as well as southwest Santa Barbara County through at least the weekend.
(tdy-Tue), 28/826 AM.
***UPDATE***
Aircraft data indicates a deep marine layer this morning around 4500 ft. Current visible satellite imagery shows low clouds arrived to Santa Clarita Valley and even farther north near the Antelope Valley foothills.
Sundowners were rather gusty yesterday evening through the overnight period. Refugio gusted to 65 mph. SBA-SMX gradient is expected to weaken somewhat (-2 to -3 mb) this evening. There is about 30-40% chance that an wind advisory will be issued for this evening - expecting a shorter duration of gustier winds. This decision will likely be made with the afternoon package.
Deep marine layer is expected to persist in the short-term with night through morning low clouds extending deep into the interior. Below average temperatures will persist. Gusty winds will continue over the interior mountains and deserts. Weak ridging with a warmup is likely to follow next weekend.
(Wed-Sat), 28/218 AM.
Broad upper level troughing with moderate onshore flow will maintain well below normal temperatures through Thursday. The consensus of model projections agree on high pressure building over the region Friday and Saturday, which will likely hold fairly steady into the following week. High temperatures should approach normal by Saturday, rising between Wednesday and Saturday by 5 degrees at the coast, 10 degrees in the valleys, and 15 degrees in the deserts. Coastal areas will carry the greatest uncertainty as the marine layer should stick around and may even become more organized as the marine inversion strengthens. With that stated, predicting the finer details of the marine layer several days out is a fools errand, so take that tidbit with a grain of salt.
28/1013z.
At 10Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 3500 ft deep. The top of the weak inversion was 6000 feet with a temperature of 15 Celsius.
High confidence in VFR TAFs for KPMD KWJF with abnormally strong and persistent onshore winds, slightly weaker than 24 hours ago. Possible UDDF near mountains. KPRB will likely stay clear with only a 20% chance of seeing clouds today or Monday.
Moderate confidence in ceilings at all other airports today. Moderate confidence in timing (+/- 3 hours) and flight categories (+/- 1 category. KSMX KSBP have a 50% chance of staying clear tonight into Monday. The rest should see ceilings, but coverage and timing will be difficult to predict as the inversion continues to weaken.
KLAX, High confidence in ceilings today, moderate confidence Monday. Moderate confidence in timing (+/- 3 hours) and flight categories (+/- 1 category). 50% chance of southeast winds 8-10 knots 13-17Z today.
KBUR, High confidence in ceilings today, moderate confidence Monday. Moderate confidence in timing (+/- 3 hours) and flight categories (+/- 1 category). Southeast winds likely longer lasting than normal.
28/141 AM.
High confidence in Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds for the outer waters from the Central Coast through San Nicolas Island through Monday morning, with some improvement after. The nearshore Central Coast waters will likely see SCA winds today focused this afternoon and evening, with chances decreasing Monday and Tuesday.
High confidence in SCA winds over the western Santa Barbara Channel late this afternoon and evening once again, with lowering chances to follow. The rest of the waters will likely stay under SCA.
All waters will see short-period choppy seas into early next week, with today likely being the worst.
Ca, NONE. PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Monday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 AM PDT Monday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
