27/217 PM.
Hot and muggy conditions will continue through Friday with a high risk for heat-related illness. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible through Friday, with risks of lightning, fire starts, and erratic winds. Temperature and moisture relief will start over the weekend, but will increase again starting Tuesday, with a chance for showers and convection.
(tdy-Sun), 28/328 AM.
Hot and muggy conditions will continue today as remnants of Iselle still linger offshore. While elevated convection dropped off overnight over land, thunderstorms were still firing off near where what's left of Iselle roughly 300 miles southwest of LA. Based on the latest satellite imagery it looks like the best chances for any storms or light showers today will be north of Pt Conception. And even though cloud coverage south of there is starting to decrease, PW's are still over 1.5" locally so the muggy-ness will continue at least one more day. And in fact, temperatures in most areas south of Pt Conception should rebound back to very similar temperatures as Wednesday with weak onshore flow and more sunshine. Helping that cause will be the very warm morning temperatures with many areas still in the upper 70s to mid 80s as of 3am.
There is good news though as models continue to favor a significant cooling trend this weekend into early next week. By Sunday or Monday most areas are expected to be near normal or even slightly below normal with humidities much lower as well.
(Mon-Thu), 28/338 AM.
Most of the ensemble models are favoring a trough pattern along the West coast next week, though some height rises are likely by mid week leading to a modest warming trend Wed-Fri. Most of the projections keep highs in check, at most maybe 2-4 degrees above normal, though there is maybe a 10-20 percent chance of highs 4-8 degrees above normal. A return to more muggy conditions is less likely than what models showed yesterday as the next tropical wave off Mexico gets steered well to the west.
28/0518z.
At 0510Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 600 feet deep. The top of the inversion was 2500 feet with a temperature of 32 C.
Overall, moderate confidence in 06Z TAF Package. For most of the period expecting BKN/OVC150.
KLAX, Moderate confidence in TAF. BKN/OVC deck above 10KFT thru at least 28/18Z. Any east wind component is expected to remain below 7 kts.
KBUR, Moderate confidence in TAF. BKN/OVC deck above 10KFT thru at least 28/18Z.
27/744 PM.
Through this weekend, high confidence in small craft advisory (SCA) level winds across the outer waters with short-period choppy seas. These hazardous conditions will reach into the nearshore waters along the Central and into the Santa Barbara Channel at times (especially afternoon/eve). Local gusts may approach 35 kt near Point Conception Saturday evening.
Isolated to scattered showers are expected to continue across the coastal waters mainly north and west of Point Conception. There is a 10% chance of thunderstorms which could bring the threat of erratic winds, localized rough seas and cloud-to-surface lightning. For next week, most waters are likely to fall below SCA levels Monday and Tuesday. Increasing chances for SCA conditions later in the week but signal isn't strong, moderate at best.
Ca, Extreme Heat Warning in effect until 8 PM PDT this evening for zones 38-87-88-349>358-362-366>376-378>383-548. (See LAXNPWLOX). Heat Advisory in effect until 8 PM PDT this evening for zones 341>345-347-348. (See LAXNPWLOX). Red Flag Warning in effect until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for zones 340>345-353-375>380. (See LAXRFWLOX). PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Saturday for zones 645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT Saturday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
