28/1153 PM.
Quiet weather with near seasonal temperatures will prevail this week. Breezy west to northwest winds will occur across portions of the area at times. Late season rain is possible early next week.
(tdy-Fri), 29/855 AM.
***UPDATE***
Forecast excitement remains low today as temperatures are within a few degrees of normal under mostly clear skies. Most areas are running a few degrees warmer than yesterday at this time but expecting just minor increases at most by this afternoon. Onshore flow continues but it's light and afternoon breezes should be light as well.
***From Previous Discussion***
On Thursday an upper low that has been spinning harmlessly to the SW will sweep to the SE and pass south of San Diego. This passage will not affect our area much at all. There is a better chc for coastal low clouds in the morning as there should be an eddy. Max temps will mostly warm another 1 to 3 degrees xcp across the Central Coast where stronger onshore flow will bring an earlier seabreeze along with 2 or 3 degrees of cooling.
A 576 dam ridge moves into the state on Friday. Onshore flow will remain and there will be a grip of morning low clouds across the csts and locally into the lower vlys. The onshore flow and marine layer will prevent a big warm up for the cst/vly areas (1-3 degrees) but interior will see 3 to 5 degrees of warming.
There will be gusty winds across the Antelope Vly, the I-5 corridor and the western portion of the SBA south coast each late afternoon and evening with near advisory level gusts across the western portion of the SBA south coast.
(Sat-Tue), 29/313 AM.
On Saturday, ridging will continue in the morning but will push off to the east in the afternoon. The onshore flow will continue and this should enable the marine layer stratus to continue across most cst and some lower vlys. The lower hgts due to the movement of the upper high and moderate onshore flow will cool SLO and most of SBA county. VTA and LA county will not be affected as much and will warm an additional 1 to 3 degrees making Saturday the warmest of the next 7 for those two counties (vly highs in the lower to mid 80s).
There continues to be decent agreement between the mdls (deterministic, AI and ensemble) for the Sunday and early next week forecast.
A very large (for May) 557 dam upper low will move south about 100 miles west of the Bay Area on Sunday. SW flow will set up over the area. It will be dry, but there will be plenty of mid and high clouds and likely a whole host of morning low clouds. Max temps will cool 3 to 6 degrees.
The low will move to the south and east starting Sunday night. It will track through SLO county and into Kern County Monday night through Tuesday morning. There is not that much mositure or dynamics with this system and not many of the ensemble members bring rain to the area. Right now there is no more than a 20 percent chc of rain for any given 6 hour period Monday through Tuesday. The upper low does pass directly over SLO county and the nrn mtns so it is not out of the question that some weak convection could develop. Overall even if some rain does fall it does not look to be much. Max temps on Monday will nose dive 4 to 8 locally 10 degrees and will end up only in the mid 60s to lower 70s across the csts/vlys or 3 to 6 locally 8 degrees blo normal.
29/1755z.
At 1644Z at KLAX, the marine layer was about 1600 feet deep. The top of the inversion was 2100 feet with a temperature of 14 C.
Overall moderate confidence in the 18Z TAFs due to uncertainties with timing of mostly MVFR cigs for many coastal and vly airfields tonight into Thu morning which could be off +/- 1 to 3 hours. However, confidence in these conds developing is fairly high.
For KPRB, KSBP, KWJF and KPMD, hi confidence in VFR TAFs.
KLAX, Moderate confidence in timing of low clouds and MVFR conds tonight. However, fairly hi confidence in the MVFR conds developing. Cigs of 015-025 should be prevalent aft about 06Z-08Z, altho arrival timing could be anytime between 06Z and 12Z. No significant east wind component is expected.
KBUR, Moderate confidence in timing of low clouds and MVFR conds tonight. However, fairly hi confidence in the MVFR conds developing. Cigs of 020-025 should be prevalent aft about 10Z-12Z, altho arrival timing could be anytime between 08Z and 12Z.
29/838 AM.
Moderate to high confidence in Small Craft Advisory (SCA) W-NW winds across the outer waters through late tonight, and possibly into Friday, especially over the northern outer waters. Moderate confidence that conds will then remain near but below SCA levels through Saturday, with winds likely decreasing further on Sunday. Along the Central Coast, SCA winds are likely each afternoon and evening period through Thursday, followed by lighter winds through the weekend.
For the Santa Barbara Channel, SCA winds are possible this afternoon and evening (20%-30% chance) over the western portion of the channel. There is a higher chance of SCA winds Thursday afternoon and night, followed by lighter winds through the weekend.
Otherwise, typical winds expected elsewhere which includes gusty (but under SCA winds) nearshore each afternoon.
Ca, NONE. PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
