02/753 PM.
Onshore flow will continue to bring low clouds to the coasts and coastal valleys each night through morning period. Weaker onshore flow will mean decreasing clouds in the valleys and gradually warming temperatures. Expect a return to near-normal temperatures by middle of next week with 80s and low 90s for many valley locations by that time.
(Thu-Sun), 02/826 PM.
***UPDATE***
Onshore pressure gradients have weakened considerably over the past 24 hours, with the LAX to Daggett lowering from 7.9 mb to 5.7 mb. While a coastal eddy is forecast to form overnight, the weaker onshore push will keep the low clouds from moving very far inland. The coasts and portions of the coastal valleys will see low clouds overnight, and the Salinas Valley, but otherwise the interior valleys should remain clear. With a shallower layer in place, some of the foothills and Santa Monica Mountains are more likely to see fog overnight, with continued light drizzle at times.
Onshore flow will continue to weaken as heights aloft begin to rise, with highs on Friday likely to increase by 3 to 6 degrees. 80s to 90s are expected away from the coast, with 60s to 70s for the coastal basins. Temperatures will change little over the weekend, but additional gradual warming will resume early next week. The only winds of note will be continued breezy onshore winds during the afternoon to evening hours, strongest through passes and canyons into the Antelope Valley.
(Mon-Thu), 02/1214 PM.
Temperatures will continue to trend warmer during the extended timeframe due to rising pressure heights, weaker onshore flow and a resultant thinner marine layer. 500 mb ensembles suggest that high pressure will strengthen and take firm hold of our weather pattern come later next week. While temperatures will largely still be near to below normal heading into next week, valley temperatures will warm into 80s and low 90s throughout the week. There is approximately a 50 to 60 percent chance that coastal locations, such as Santa Barbara, will warm to around or just above normal by Wednesday. If heat risk becomes a concern, it will be around this timeframe as there is little to no concern of heat risk prior to the middle to end of next week.
02/2321z.
At 2230Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1100 feet deep. The top of the inversion was 5600 feet with a temperature of 18 degrees Celsius.
For 00Z TAF package, high confidence in KWJF and KPMD.
For all other sites, moderate to high confidence in 00Z TAFs. Timing of flight category changes could be up to +/- 2 hours. CIGs may be +/- 500 feet of current forecasts.
KLAX, Moderate to high confidence in 00Z TAF. Timing of flight category changes could be +/- 2 hours of current forecasts. There is a 30% chance that IFR level CIGs could develop 08Z-16Z. No significant easterly wind component is expected.
KBUR, Moderate to high confidence in 00Z TAF. Timing of flight category changes could be +/- 2 hours of current forecasts.
02/817 PM.
For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Tonight through Saturday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels. For Sunday through Tuesday, there is a 50-70% chance of SCA level winds.
For the Inner Water north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Tonight through Sunday, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels. On Monday and Tuesday, there is a 30-50% chance of SCA level winds in the afternoon and evening hours.
For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Tonight through Tuesday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels for most of the southern Inner Waters. The only exception will be the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel where there is a 40-60% chance of SCA level Sunday through Tuesday, mainly in the late afternoon and evening hours.
Ca, NONE. PZ, NONE.
