26/137 PM.
Very hot conditions will dominate the week, with a high risk of heat-related illness. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible Thursday and Friday. Significant cooling is likely by Sunday or Monday.
(tdy-Sat), 26/125 PM.
The forecast remains on track in terms of the heat. The one change was extending the Heat Advisory on the Central Coast forward 24 hours so that now all of our Heat Advisories and Warnings end at the same time (8pm Friday). Otherwise, no other changes planned or expected. The extra clouds forecasted for Thursday and Friday will likely have little effect on the temperatures because of their tropical origin and likely embedded breaks of sunshine. Not only that, even if temperatures lower a little, the mugginess feeling will rise with the increasing humidities. Temperatures are still on track to lower on Saturday but it will remain hot, with significant relief still on target for Sunday and Monday.
The showers and thunderstorm potential mentioned earlier today remains on the table, but it is a complicated and low-confidence situation. Two main factors are in play. First, there is a lot of moisture off the Baja coast associated with what was Tropical Storm Iselle (ee- SELL). An upper level trough to the north will push this moisture will over California later tonight through Friday, with the majority of solutions focused on Central California. Second, an organized cluster of convection is moving from northwest Mexico and north crossing into the United States. This feature will likely continue to move towards us overnight into Thursday, which will be a source of convective initiation wherever it ends up going. Putting all of this together, expecting a few showers in the area on Thursday and Friday. While most of the area will likely not see anything, these showers could pop up just about anywhere. As a result, 15-20% PoPs are in the forecast for the entire area, for the general possibility of light big-drop showers. With the tropical moisture, hot and unstable atmosphere, and a few upper level disturbances however, there is a 5-10% chance of a heavier cell and or a thunderstorm or two. This is a classic low chance, potentially high impact scenario.
Sundowner winds will affect southern Santa Barbara County each night through the week. The winds tonight should be weaker than last night, but look to ramp up again Friday Night or Saturday Night.
With some local offshore flow and the influx of tropical moisture, the marine layer will likely be minimal through Friday, then start reforming and expanding on Saturday.
NOTE: Climate records are now available on our NEW Climate site: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/cliplot_records?wfo=lox
(Sun-Wed), 26/134 PM.
A large trough over the west coast will shove our heat-inducing high to the east, and strengthen onshore gradients. This should enable temperatures to quick drop back below normal by Sunday or Monday, bringing much relief to the region. The marine layer will likely reform and blanket all coastal areas and some valleys.
The one wrinkle to pay attention to is another possible round of tropical storm remnants moving over the region in the next week window of Wednesday through Friday. The operational GFS has been rather consistently bullish on a lot of moisture with light to moderate rain moving right through the southern half of the state. Peering into the GFS and EC ensembles however, the majority (albeit slim) of solutions are dry with absolutely no rain as the tropical moisture stays off the coast. With that said, 10 to 30 percent of the projections so some light rain (depending on which county you are in), with a 0 to 5 percent chance of moderate to heavy rain. Because of the low probabilities of significant rain, this is not something to get too excited about yet, but it is something to monitor.
26/1638z.
At 1600Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 500 feet deep. The top of the inversion was 2200 feet with a temperature of 32 degrees Celsius.
High confidence in 18Z TAF package. VFR conditions are expected for all sites through the period as increasing high clouds tonight are expected to inhibit any stratus formation.
KLAX, High confidence in 18Z TAF as VFR conditions are expected through the period.
KBUR, High confidence in 18Z TAF as VFR conditions are expected through the period.
26/1230 PM.
For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Monday, high confidence in Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds continuing along with steep, short period seas approaching SCA levels. Additionally, there is a 30% chance of Gale force winds on Sunday around Point Conception.
For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate confidence in current forecast. Today through Sunday, there is a 40-60% chance of SCA level winds each afternoon and evening. On Monday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. Steep, short-period, seas can be expected through the week.
For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. For a majority of the southern Inner Waters, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels through Monday. The only exception will be the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel where there is a 60-80% chance of SCA level winds during the afternoon and evening hours Thursday through Monday. Steep, short-period, seas can be expected through the week.
26/137 PM.
Southerly swell from Tropical Storms Iselle and Julio will move into the coastal waters today and continue through Thursday. Swell heights of 3-5 feet with a period around 14 seconds can be expected. producing elevated surf and dangerous rip currents along south-facing beaches of Ventura and LA counties. Therefore, a BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT is in effect through 11 PM Thursday.
Ca, Extreme Heat Warning in effect until 8 PM PDT Friday for zones 38-87-88-349>358-362-366>376-378>383-548. (See LAXNPWLOX). Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Thursday evening for zones 87-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). Heat Advisory in effect until 8 PM PDT Friday for zones 341>345-347-348. (See LAXNPWLOX). Red Flag Warning in effect until 3 PM PDT Friday for zones 345-353-375>380. (See LAXRFWLOX). PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Thursday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT Friday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
