31/426 PM.
Minor cooling with locally dense fog near the coast is expected during the late night to morning hours Sunday and Monday. Another warming trend will likely begin Tuesday, with near record high temperatures possible and locally gusty Santa Ana winds.
(Sat-Tue), 31/744 PM.
***UPDATE***
High pressure and offshore winds brought unseasonably warm temperatures to the area today, with highs everywhere up anywhere from a degree or two to 6 degrees warmer. A cooling trend is expected through the next couple of days due to the ridge aloft weakening as an upper trough approaches the West Coast. Highs will drop into the 70s for all areas by Monday. This trough will bring rain to northern California up to the Pacific Northwest, with dry conditions farther south. The cooling will persist through Monday, with another warmup for Tuesday through Thursday as another round of Santa Ana winds affects the area.
There is the potential for low clouds and patchy dense fog to form over portions of the northern coastal waters and the Santa Maria Valley tonight. However, there is a better chance of low clouds and fog Sunday night into Monday, when the LAX to Daggett surface pressure gradient finally shifts to weak onshore. In addition, a coastal eddy is forecast to form offshore from the LA Coast, which should help to push low clouds onshore.
***From Previous Discussion***
Offshore gradients are starting to trend onshore, though this won't likely have much impact until tomorrow and Monday, each of which will experience around 3-6 degrees of cooling across coast and valleys. Even with this expected cooling temperatures will still be 5-10 degrees above normal area-wide. Immediate coastal areas may see a return of local clouds and dense fog, initially just the Central Coast Sunday but then expanding to southern areas Monday.
High pressure will re-strengthen again Tuesday as will offshore flow and this will begin yet another significant warming trend that will bring 80s back to the LA/Ventura coast and valleys. Increasing Santa Ana winds are expected as well across the typical favored areas.
(Wed-Sat), 31/1128 AM.
Widespread 80+ degrees are expected across all coast and valleys, including parts of the Central Coast Wed and Thu with even a sprinkling of low 90s possible across inland parts of the coastal plane from Ventura County to Long Beach. This is right in the range of daily records for those dates so expect some more high temperature records to fall next week. Gusty Santa Ana winds are expected as well, strongest on Wednesday but continuing into Thursday as well.
A slow cooling trend will begin Thursday as high pressure weakens enough to allow a weak trough to move into the eastern Pacific, though high temperatures are expected to remain well above normal through at least next Saturday.
There are a few ensemble solutions indicating some very light rain as early as next Sunday, though the vast majority are holding off until at least the following Monday or later.
01/0600z.
At 0542Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer. The top of a sfc- based inversion was at 800 ft with a temperature of 23 degrees C.
High confidence in TAFs, except moderate to high confidence in KPRB and KSMX. There is a 10-20% chance of MVFR VSBYs at KPRB 12Z-17Z and a 10% chance of LIFR/VLIFR conds at KSMX 10Z-14Z.
Continued weaker offshore flow will generate light LLWS and turbulence across the foothills and mountains through the period.
KLAX, High confidence in TAF. Weak northeasterly winds under 5 knots are possible 08Z-18Z Sun, otherwise good confidence in no signigicant east wind component.
KBUR, High confidence in TAF.
31/743 PM.
For the Outer Waters and the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, high confidence in current forecast. From Sunday afternoon through Monday night, a combination of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas is expected to develop. For Tuesday through Wednesday, winds and seas are expected to drop below SCA levels, except for a 20-30% chance of SCA level northeast winds across the nearshore waters.
For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. From Ventura south to Santa Monica, there is a 40-50% chance of SCA level northeast winds Tuesday night and Wednesday. Otherwise, winds and seas will remain below SCA levels through Wednesday.
Ca, NONE. PZ, NONE.
