29/850 PM.
Low clouds will linger each night/morning along the coast and in coastal valleys with the potential for some very light drizzle. Falling heights will keep temperatures well below normal through the middle of the week. Temperatures will begin to warm by Thursday, with many valley locations warming into the 90s again by early next week.
(Mon-Thu), 29/850 PM.
***UPDATE***
Today began with a deep, extensive marine layer cloud deck that pushed far into the valleys and portions of the coastal slopes. The coasts warmed to the 60s and low 70s, with 70s common through most of the valleys and warmer upper 70s to 80s for the interior, and temperatures trended 8 to 15 degrees below normal. Temperatures were altered a bit to account for cooler values along the Central Coast for tomorrow, but otherwise the forecast looks on track.
Clouds have pushed into the Central Coast this evening, and developed in a patchy nature over southern areas in part due to a weak inversion. Expecting much of the same over the next few days with strong onshore flow and plenty of marine layer clouds during the overnight to morning hours, with clearing throughout the day. Fog will be possible in the usual places, along with higher elevation areas on the edge of the cloud deck. Will likely continue to see gusty west to southwest winds over the interior each afternoon, perhaps nearing advisory levels around Wednesday afternoon.
***From Previous Discussion***
A closed low will track southward through CA today before lifting into NV early Tuesday and transitioning to an open trough. The pressure gradient will tighten today and subsequent days as shortwaves swing through, resulting in breezy conditions, especially in the Antelope Valley/Foothills and the San Luis Obispo Valley. No wind highlights are planned at this time as winds look to remain sub-Advisory or very marginal in localized areas in these regions. Various high resolution models, as well as the National Blend, maintain broad coverage of 25 to 35 mph wind gusts this afternoon with a relatively smaller region of 35 to 40 or so mph gusts, especially across the Foothills. The National Blend max gust for today and Tuesday is generally 38 to 44 mph across a relatively small portion of the aforementioned regions. Daytime temperatures will remain very stable, running below climatological norms through mid-week. Widespread highs will range the 70s with 80s in the valleys. Temperatures will then warm beginning Thursday into the next week.
(Fri-Mon), 29/1209 PM.
Temperatures will continue warming by another several degrees on on Friday and warm to within a few degrees on either side of normal on Saturday. Ensembles indicate a pattern change come next weekend, although confidence in the temperature and wind forecast next week is moderate. Ensembles differ on the upper-level details, specifically the strength of the ridge. While Saturday, July 4th won't be the warmest day of the extended period, some locations could warm into the high 90s. The National Blend indicates over a 90% chance of 90 plus degrees across the Antelope Valley on the 4th while 50% to 60% chance across the San Luis Obispo Valley. The likelihood of reaching 85 degrees is much more widespread. Some models feature another PacNW low early next week while others maintain some magnitude of high pressure or a zonal regime heading into the middle of next week. Temperatures look to return to normal or slightly above with upper 80s to low 90s in the forecast again by early next week. Additionally, offshore sundowner winds could develop early next week along the Santa Barbara coast.
30/0143z.
At 00Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1600 ft deep. The top of the inversion was 2300 ft with a temperature of 15 Celsius.
High confidence in VFR TAFs for KPMD and KWJF.
There is a 20% chance for brief cigs at KPRB, and Moderate confidence (50+% chance) in ceilings at all other airports for tonight into Tuesday morning. Moderate confidence in timing (+/- 3 hours) and flight categories +/- 1 category.
KLAX, High confidence in ceilings forming tonight into Tuesday morning. Moderate confidence in timing (+/- 3 hours) and flight categories (+/- 1 category). High confidence in any easterly wind staying under 6 knots.
KBUR, High confidence in ceilings tonight into Tuesday morning. Moderate confidence in timing (+/- 3 hours) and flight categories (+/- 1 category).
29/819 PM.
Moderate to high confidence in Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds or seas continuing for the outer waters from the Central Coast to San Nicolas Island through tonight. The SCA seas are affecting the northernmost outer waters off the Central Coast. Otherwise, SCA winds further south, strongest from Santa Rosa to San Nicolas Island. High confidence in waves diminishing on Tuesday. SCA wind chances also decrease through the coming week, with a 30% chance of SCA gusts over western PZZ670.
Other than a 30% chance of SCA winds over the western Santa Barbara Channel each afternoon and evening through Tuesday, high confidence in conditions staying under SCA for the rest of the waters.
All waters will see short-period choppy seas through the period.
Ca, NONE. PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
