02/116 PM.
Significant warming is expected Friday through Sunday as gusty Santa Ana winds return. Winds will be strongest Friday and Saturday across Los Angeles and Ventura Counties. A cooling trend will begin Monday with temperatures back to near normal around mid week.
(tdy-Sun), 02/146 PM.
Winds and warming temperatures will be the theme through at least Saturday as Santa Ana winds return to the area. Winds tonight will start out northerly and focus in the mountains, I5 corridor, and southern Santa Barbara County. Then Friday morning winds will shift to northeast and a moderate to locally strong Santa Ana wind event will take over and last through at least Saturday. Ensemble gradients indicate an impressive and rapid shift from a 6mb onshore flow today to a 6mb offshore flow Friday morning, a trend of 12mb over just 24 hours. Winds aloft are expected to be around 40-50kt which is plenty enough to produce widespread 30-50mph winds across the usual favored Santa Ana wind prone areas (not the LA Basin) and local gusts to 60 mph in the LA/Ventura Mountains, including the western Santa Monicas. Some wind also likely across the Santa Lucias, mainly Friday, but most areas there below advisory levels.
Temperatures will be warming up rapidly everywhere except the higher mountains and Antelope Valley. Expecting at least 5-10 degrees of warming both Friday and Saturday, and a couple more degrees Sunday across inland areas. By Saturday all coast/valley areas will be at least in the 80s, with some lower 90s in the warmer valleys. While these are 10-15 degrees above normal, no temperature records are expected with this event.
Offshore flow will be transitioning to onshore Sunday bringing some cooling to the coast but not inland. Some locally breezy offshore winds likely Sunday morning but much weaker than the previous two days.
(Mon-Thu), 02/158 PM.
With onshore flow returning next week temperatures across coast and valleys will be cooling down, but building high pressure aloft Tuesday and Wednesday will keep temperatures at least 3-6 degrees above normal through mid week.
For the second half of the week, models are showing an approaching trough that could result in a return of light rain as early as next Wednesday night or as late as next Friday, but most likely Thursday or Thursday night. Most of the model solutions are under a third of an inch, but there are few as high as an inch.
02/1645z.
At 1630Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer or marine inversion.
Overall, high confidence in 18Z TAFs as VFR conditions are expected for all sites through the period.
Gusty west winds can be expected through this evening. Late tonight and Friday morning, gusty northeasterly will develop. Light LLWS and wind shear will be likely across the foothills and mountains.
KLAX, High confidence in 18Z TAF as VFR conditions are expected through the period. There is a 10% chance of an easterly wind component near 8 knots 15Z-21Z.
KBUR, High confidence in 18Z TAF as VFR conditions are expected through the period. With developing offshore flow, there is a chance of light LLWS and turbulence around the airfield after 15Z.
02/101 PM.
For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Tonight through Friday morning, high confidence in a combination of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds and seas with a 30% chance of GALE force gusts. From Friday afternoon through Sunday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. For Monday through Tuesday, there is a 50-70% chance of SCA level winds.
For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Through tonight, high confidence in SCA level winds. For Friday through Monday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. On Tuesday, there is a 50% chance of SCA level winds in the afternoon and evening hours.
For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Through tonight, high confidence in SCA level northwest winds across western sections. For Friday, high confidence in SCA level northeast winds from Ventura south to Santa Monica with winds remaining below SCA levels elsewhere. For Friday night and Saturday, there is 50-70% chance of SCA level northeast winds from Ventura south to Santa Monica. For Sunday and Monday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. On Tuesday, there is a 50-70% chance of SCA level winds, mainly across western portions.
Ca, Wind Advisory in effect from 8 AM to 2 PM PDT Friday for zones 88-354-355-358-371-372-374. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory remains in effect until 11 PM PDT this evening for zones 349-351-381-383. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory remains in effect from 11 PM this evening to 5 AM PDT Friday for zones 352-353. (See LAXNPWLOX). High Wind Warning in effect from 6 AM to 6 PM PDT Friday for zones 369-375-379. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory remains in effect from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM PDT Friday for zones 375>378. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect from 6 AM to 6 PM PDT Friday for zone 380. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT Friday for zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 AM PDT Friday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
