22/1214 AM.
Below normal temperatures are expected through the end of the work week. Unsettled conditions with a few scattered off and again showers will prevail through Friday. Warmer and drier conditions will resume early next week.
(tdy-Sat), 22/1215 PM.
Overall, 12Z models in good synoptic agreement through the short term period. At upper levels, cutoff low, currently southwest of the Channel Islands, will move to the south-southeast, moving into Baja Mexico on Saturday with a weak ridge building offshore Saturday/Sunday. Near the surface, onshore flow will slowly increase through Friday, but start trending offshore on Saturday before turning weakly offshore on Sunday.
Forecast-wise for the short term, no significant issues are expected. As expected, light showers have been observed across the area today with amounts generally under one tenth of an inch. With the forecast track of the upper low, the shower threat will end this evening and dry conditions are expected Friday through the weekend. So, no hydrologic concerns today.
As for clouds, will expect the copious amounts of mid/high level clouds to diminish tonight with mostly clear skies for most areas Friday through the weekend. Given the return of weak onshore flow, some marine layer stratus/fog cannot be ruled out through the weekend. Low confidence in the exact amount of stratus coverage through the weekend, but it will likely be most widespread tonight and again Friday night.
As for winds, no significant winds are expected. By Sunday, with the weak offshore gradients forecast, there will be some locally gusty northeasterly winds. However without any decent upper level support, the winds will remain weak and no advisories are anticipated.
As for temperatures, today will be the coolest day. There will be some very subtle warming through the weekend, but temperatures will only be hovering near seasonal normals by Sunday.
(Sun-Wed), 22/1215 PM.
For the extended, 12Z models continue to be in good synoptic agreement. At upper levels, ridge will move over the area on Monday/Tuesday, but get shunted eastward on Wednesday/Thursday as a trough moves across the West Coast. Near the surface, weak diurnal flow is forecast.
For Monday/Tuesday, very benign weather is anticipated. With the ridge overhead, stratus will be limited on Monday and likely non- existent on Tuesday. Otherwise, skies are expected to be mostly clear. With the ridge overhead and less marine influence, temperatures will warm to a couple degrees above normal.
For Wednesday, there will be grazing shot of light rain, mainly north of Point Conception, as the upper trough moves across the West Coast. Rainfall totals, if any, will be very light.
For Thursday, dry conditions will return with temperatures around seasonal normals.
Further out into model "fantasy land," ensembles indicate very limited chances for any meaningful rainfall through the first week of February.
22/1814z.
At 1701Z at KLAX, the marine layer was around 1700 ft deep. The top of the inversion was at 2100 ft with a temperature of 14 C.
Overall, moderate confidence in 18Z TAF Package. Good confidence in PROB30 and prevailing -SHRA groups. Timing of any CIG/VSBY restrictions may be off by +/- 3 hours and by one category.
KLAX, Moderate confidence in TAF. -SHRA chances through around 02Z Friday. MVFR to VFR conditions expected thru fcst period. Good confidence in any east wind component remaining below 7 kts.
KBUR, Moderate confidence in TAF. -SHRA possible through 02Z Fri. VFR conditions with a slight chance for MVFR after 08Z Fri.
22/110 PM.
Winds and seas are expected to remain relatively calm through tonight, then there is a 30 percent chance for locally gusty borderline Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds across the Outer Waters (beyond 40 NM and near Channel Islands) and into the western Santa Barbara Channel Friday into Saturday morning. Another round of light Santa Ana winds is forecast to return Saturday through Sunday, but chances are low for any impactful nearshore winds at this time.
Scattered showers are currently moving across the waters adjacent to Los Angeles and Orange Counties. These showers will linger mainly across these waters into early Friday morning.
Ca, NONE. PZ, NONE.
