16/233 AM.
Near to slightly below normal temperatures are expected to continue this weekend with low clouds and fog lingering into the afternoon across coast and some valleys south of Pt Conception. Gusty winds are expected at times along the Central Coast, and across the mountains and deserts through the weekend, strongest today. Hazardous seas will affect the coastal waters over the next several days. Warmer temperatures are expected next week, especially in the desert.
(tdy-Mon), 16/242 AM.
An inside slider dropping into the Great Basin this weekend will bring windy and dry conditions to the area.
As the inside slider pattern develops, northwesterly winds will increase across the area. The north to northwesterly offshore gradients will increase through tonight. This along with decent upper level support will bring warning-level gusts to the mountains, Antelope Valley as well as southwest Santa Barbara county. In addition advisory-level gusts will develop across the Central Coast later today day. Please see LAXNPWLOX for all the details for the HIGH WIND WARNINGS and WIND ADVISORIES that are in effect through Sunday night. The winds will shift to the northeast on Monday with a possibility some advisory level gusts across LA and VTA counties.
The strong winds and low humidities will likely bring widespread critical fire weather conditions to the Antelope Valley and the adjacent western foothills today. The rest of the interior will see elevated to brief critical fire weather conditions today. Elevated to brief critical fire weather conditions are expected across both the Antelope Vly and the interior sections on Monday.
Skies will be mostly clear through the period save for some morning low clouds across LA county and western SBA county. The low clouds will diminish some each day Sunday and Monday.
Look for 3 to 6 degrees of cooling today everywhere except for the SBA south coast where there will be 4 to 6 degrees of downslope warming. Increasing offshore flow and less marine layer will bring 1 to 3 degrees of warming to the csts/vlys on Sunday, but the interior will cool due to northerly cool air advection. The offshore flow and rising hgts will warm almost all of the areas 3 to 6 degrees on Monday. The SBA south coast will be the exception due to the lack of north flow.
(Tue-Fri), 16/242 AM.
A broad pos tilt long wave trof will cover most of the western CONUS Tue through Thu with its base draped over Srn CA. By Friday a weak high hgt (586 dam) upper low will develop to the west of the state.
The upper pattern will not be as important as the sfc pattern and here there is some mdl disagreement with the GFS (as usual) much more strongly onshore than the EC. The forecast follows the usually more accurate EC. Look for only minimal morning low clouds and fog. Max temps will warm 2 to 4 degrees each day for most of the area. Wednesday will be the warmest day with mostly 70s across the csts and 80s in the vlys (a few 90 or 91 degree reading are not out of the question). Onshore trends will knock a few degrees off of cstl/vly temps on Thursday followed by broad cooling on Friday.
16/0933z.
At 0832Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 2200 ft deep. The top of the inversion was at 5000 ft with a temperature of 19 C.
High confidence in KPMD & KWJF TAFs.
Moderate confidence in remaining TAFs. There is a 30 percent chc of MVFR cigs at KSBP, KSBA 13Z-17Z. VFR transition at sites with cigs could up up to 2 hours later than fcst.
KLAX, Moderate confidence in TAF. SCT conds could arrive as late as 20Z. Good confidence that any east wind component remains below 7 kts.
KBUR, Moderate confidence in TAF. SCT conds could arrive as late as 20Z.
15/1111 PM.
Dangerous sea conditions are expected over the weekend, and could capsize or damage small and large vessels. Mariners should adjust plans NOW to remain in safe harbor.
GALE WARNINGS are in effect for the inner waters along the Central Coast, all the outer waters, and the Santa Barbara Channel this weekend. Please refer to MWWLOX for further details.
For the outer waters from the Central Coast to San Nicolas Island, high confidence forecast. Widespread, high-end, STRONG GALES are expected this weekend. Local gusts may reach STORM FORCE late this afternoon into evening. The Gale Force winds will diminish overnight Sunday, then Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds will continue into late Monday night, with a 20% chance of lingering through Tuesday. As for seas, SCA level seas will continue to build through the weekend, becoming large 10-18 foot steep seas, then diminishing throughout Monday and Monday night.
For the inner waters along the Central Coast, high-end, STRONG GALE FORCE level winds are expected through Sunday evening. Winds will then drop below Gale force and even SCA levels overnight Sunday, then SCA level wind gusts will affect the waters during the afternoon and evening hours on Monday. Winds will remain below SCA levels Monday night through Wednesday. As for seas, SCA level seas will continue through the weekend, and potentially linger in Monday evening.
For the inner waters south of Point Conception, the GALE WARNING for the Santa Barbara Channel goes into effect this afternoon through late night, with a moderate risk of GALE FORCE winds again Sunday afternoon and evening. For the southern inner waters adjacent to the L.A. Coast, SCA conditions are expected this afternoon through Sunday morning. Highest seas and strongest winds expected across western portion. Localized GALE Force wind gusts are possible this evening near Anacapa Island.
15/825 PM.
A combination of strong winds, large seas, and moderately high evening high tides may lead to high surf with minor coastal flooding possible this weekend. High Surf advisories and Beach Hazard statements have been issued across the entire coastline. Please refer to CFWLOX for more details for your area.
In general, hazardous surfing and swimming conditions are expected. Minor beach erosion and coastal flooding is possible, mainly during the evening high tides.
Ca, High Surf Advisory in effect until 9 AM PDT Monday for zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX). Wind Advisory remains in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening for zones 340-341-346>348. (See LAXNPWLOX). Beach Hazards Statement in effect from this afternoon through Monday morning for zones 349-350. (See LAXCFWLOX). High Wind Warning remains in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM PDT Sunday for zones 349-351>353. (See LAXNPWLOX). High Surf Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM PDT Monday for zone 354. (See LAXCFWLOX). Beach Hazards Statement in effect from this evening through Monday morning for zones 362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). High Wind Warning remains in effect until 9 AM PDT Sunday for zones 376>378. (See LAXNPWLOX). High Wind Warning remains in effect until 11 PM PDT Sunday for zones 381-383. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory remains in effect from noon to 11 PM PDT Sunday for zone 382. (See LAXNPWLOX). Red Flag Warning in effect from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM PDT this evening for zones 381-383. (See LAXRFWLOX). PZ, Gale Warning in effect until 9 PM PDT Sunday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect from noon today to 5 AM PDT Sunday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM PDT Sunday for zone 655. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
