14/346 AM.
Seasonal June conditions will continue through the week as at least weak to moderate onshore flow continues, with night through morning low clouds and fog across most coastal areas. Near to slightly above normal temperatures will continue through early next week, with minor afternoon heat impacts, before cooling down during the middle of the week.
(tdy-Tue), 14/751 AM.
***UPDATE***
Morning visible satellite shows marine layer clouds were a little more expansive than yesterday across San Luis Obispo and western Santa Barbara counties and less coverage across the LA Basin. Surface obs and webcams showed some locally dense fog did develop again, including the Santa Ynez Valley and the San Miguel to Paso Robles areas where the low clouds did make it all the way south through the Salinas Valley. Coverage of the dense fog was too low to warrant an advisory.
The forecast is still on track for a few degrees (2-5F) of cooling to afternoon temperatures compared to yesterday with latest observed 24-hr temperature changes across most areas this morning at around 2-8F cooler. Despite the cooling, high temperatures this afternoon are still forecast to reach near to slightly above normal, with mostly upper 70s to upper 90s away from the coast.
***From Previous Discussion***
Today is expected to look a lot like yesterday, although a deeper marine layer along the Central Coast should limit dense fog coverage this morning. One difference is the push of low clouds seen as satellite into the Salinas Valley early this morning that will make a run for Paso Robles. Near normal temperatures (70s-80) are anticipated near the coast with temperatures 5-10 degrees above normal (80s-100) across interior mountains and valleys. Typically breezy afternoon to evening onshore winds are expected peaking in strength through favored corridors.
Slight offshore trends and enhanced ridging aloft will bring a few degrees of warming into Monday and Tuesday with the potential for moderate heat impacts to expand for warmer coastal valleys and the interior. Although above normal temperatures will increase heat stress during the day for those interior areas, good cooling trends in the evening and especially overnight should limit overall impacts and therefore the need for heat products. However, those sensitive to the heat may want to consider avoiding peak heat of the day and hydrate often.
The marine layer and associated night-to-morning low clouds may be squashed to mainly coastal areas for Monday and Tuesday with limited to no valley penetration, contributing to the aforementioned warming trends most notably for coastal valleys. Fog may become more widespread within the marine layer albeit with limited concern for dense fog given continued onshore flow and only weak ridging aloft.
(Wed-Sat), 14/521 AM.
A slow-developing trough will likely build into region Wednesday or Thursday and bring moderate cooling trends away from the coast, drastically reducing heat risk even to warmer interior areas. Night to morning low clouds will likely continue, but expand well into the coastal valleys and possibly some lower foothills.
The associated onshore push will support gusty onshore to northwest winds nearing advisory levels for the interior, possibly extending to southwest Santa Barbara. There may be a period of enhanced fire weather concern on one or both of those transition days (Wed/Thu) for far interior areas and maybe especially at high elevations, which would be situated above the expanding marine layer influence.
Looking further out, there's a 50-60 percent chance of above normal temperatures returning and perhaps becoming more widespread during the early to middle part of next week as a ridge potentially builds into the region.
14/1803z.
At 1708Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1000 ft deep. The top of the inversion was near 3000 ft with a temperature of 23 C.
High confidence in VFR TAFs for desert airfields (KPMD & KWJF).
Low to moderate confidence in remaining TAFs. Timing of CIG/VSBY restrictions may be off 3 hours and flight minimums by one category.
KLAX, Low confidence in TAF. Intermittent CIGs around 008 are possible from 14/18Z-14/23Z as stratus hangs along coastline. Thereafter, IFR CIGs 005-007 should arrive 15/05Z (+/- 2 hours). Stratus could hang along coastline again 15/18Z - end of fcst pd. No significant east wind component expected.
KBUR, Moderate confidence in TAF. High confidence in VFR conditions through 15/08Z. 30% chance of LIFR CIGs 12Z-16Z.
13/821 PM.
Moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Conditions are generally expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels across the coastal waters through the forecast period.
Local gusts could reach 21 kts during the afternoon and evening timeframe across the western Santa Barbara Channel, Santa Monica Basin, and nearshore Los Angeles Harbor into the San Pedro Channel.
Patchy dense fog with visibility 1 NM or less is possible each night to morning through at least Monday.
Ca, Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Monday evening for zones 349-350-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ, NONE.
