23/116 PM.
Warmer than normal conditions are expected to persist along the Central Coast through the week, peaking on Tuesday. Warming temperatures are expected elsewhere, though the marine layer may linger at least near the coast keeping temperatures cooler there. There will be some gusty northerly winds across the mountains through the week.
(tdy-Thu), 23/147 PM.
Quite a bit of uncertainty still remains with the temperature forecast south of Pt Conception as models are indicating either a light onshore or light offshore gradients through at least Wednesday and the HREF maintains at least some marine layer stratus near the coast and even locally into the LA/Ventura valleys. Highs today there have hovered close to the relatively cool Sunday levels and given the above scenario it's going to be a struggle to get much warmer until later in the week when the ensemble gradients indicate at least a chance of some increasing offshore flow down here. So at least for the next day or two the forecast highs were lowered a few degrees. Some northerly winds are expected in the LA/Ventura/Santa Barbara Mountains at least through Tuesday morning.
A much different story along the Central Coast where a stronger offshore pattern has developed, leading gusty northeast Santa Lucia winds and strong downslope warming there. Santa Maria has reached at least 91 which breaks the previous daily record of 89. And northeast winds continue at this hour so additional warming is still possible before the sea breeze arrives. San Luis Obispo airport also reached at least 91 today. Even Morro Bay was at least 81. Expecting at least one more day of hot temperatures there before offshore flow starts to weaken Wednesday. Though even Wednesday through Friday there's at least a 60% chance of highs in the mid to upper 80s along the Central Coast so heat advisories may need to be extended beyond the current Tuesday evening expiration.
(Fri-Mon), 23/203 PM.
Ensemble gradients are indicating some additional north to northeast flow developing south of Pt Conception Thursday and Friday. If this pans out temperatures across LA/Ventura coast and valleys will warm up at least 3-6 degrees at the end of the week and into the weekend, and possibly more at the coast if that northeast offshore happens. Still plenty of uncertainty on that so stay tuned through the week to see how the pattern evolves. Temperatures along the Central Coast will remain above normal through next weekend but generally with a slow cooling trend.
A cooling trend is expected next week as models are still indicating a pattern change around the beginning of April. Most of the ensembles are indicating some amount of rain, and the vast majority of the 100 or so solutions are still under a half inch. However, both the GFS and EC AI models are between a half and one inch area-wide.
***OF NOTE***
This has be a phenomenally warm month. Using the forecasted high temperatures for DTLA for today (the 23rd) to the 31st along with the max temps that have already occurred, the DTLA average max temp for the month would be 83.5 degrees. This would handily eclipse the previous record holders:
79.1 degrees in 2015 76.7 degrees in 2017 76.0 degrees in 1931 75.8 degrees in 1934 75.7 degrees in 1959
23/2343z.
At 2217Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 800 feet deep. The top of the inversion was at 2300 feet with a temperature of 23 C.
High confidence in VFR TAFs for desert airfields (KPMD & KWJF).
Generally moderate confidence in remaining TAFs. For coastal sites SBA and south, Timing of CIG/VSBY restrictions may be off +/- 2 hours and flight minimums by one category.
Lowest confidence in KBUR and KVNY.
KLAX, Moderate confidence in TAF. Arrival and clearing times could be off +/- 2 hours from current forecast. Generally expecting CIGs 002-006 with 1-3SM vsbys. There is a 30% chance of 1/4-1/2SM FG VV002 conditons from 24/10Z to 24/16Z. Marine layer stratus could return as early as 25/00Z. No significant east wind component is expected.
KBUR, Low confidence in TAF through 17Z with a 40 percent chc of 1/4SM FG VV002 conds 12Z-17Z.
23/143 PM.
For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Through Thursday, high confidence in a combination of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas. Wednesday, there is a moderate chance (30-50% chance) of GALES, likely to be focused during the afternoon thru overnight timeframe. Large seas of 10-14 feet are possible late Wednesday through early Friday.
For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Through Thursday, there is a 50-70% chance of SCA level winds during the afternoon and evening hours.
For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. For most of the southern Inner Waters, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels through Thursday. The only exception will be the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel where there is a 20-30% chance of SCA level winds focused during the afternoon and evening hours Wednesday and Thursday.
Dense fog is possible this week, focused in the late evening to early afternoon hours each day. Visibilities of one nautical mile or less can be expected.
Ca, Heat Advisory remains in effect until 8 PM PDT Tuesday for zones 340>342-346>348. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory remains in effect until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for zones 378-381. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 AM PDT Tuesday for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
