31/1258 PM.
Cool and cloud conditions with periods of light rain will continue through tonight. Gusty north to northeast winds are favored Wednesday night through Saturday with a moderate Santa Ana event possible Friday and Saturday. Much warmer temperatures with mostly sunny skies are expected this weekend.
(tdy-Fri), 31/1248 PM.
Copious clouds continued to stream over the region along and ahead of a trough expected to push through the region by Wednesday morning. Light rain will accompany the trough and its associated front from north to south through tonight with light amounts except for up to a quarter inch in the mountains and any isolated brief heavier showers. Breezy but mostly sub-advisory onshore winds are anticipated through this evening for interior mountains and foothills, especially near the Antelope Valley.
Drier NW flow will move into the Wednesday. Can't rule out a stray shower in the morning, but it will be a predominantly a dry day will clearing skies. There will be gusty westerly winds across the Antelope Vly and its western foothills. The extra afternoon sunshine will allow for a 2 to 3 degree warm up across most of the area.
The NW flow will continue on Thursday. Skies will be mostly sunny. There may be enough mid level moisture to bring an isolated mtn shower. The gusty winds will continue across the Antelope Vly and with a 7.2 mb onshore push the east there may be advisory level gusts there and some areas prone to northwest winds such as the I-5 in the mountains. Max temps will be similar across the csts/vlys. Some cool air advection from the San Joaquin Vly will bring 3 to 6 degrees of cooling across the far interior.
A weak ridge will build into the area on Friday. At the sfc high pressure will build into the Great Basin and set up offshore flow. A Santa Ana wind event will develop as well as a NE wind event across the Central Coast. It looks like there will be enough upper support to create advisory level gusts. Sunny skies, rising hgts and the offshore winds will all combine to bring 4 to 8 degrees of warming. This will bring most cst and vly highs into the mid 70s to lower 80s.
(Sat-Tue), 31/1256 PM.
Ridging and weak to moderate offshore flow will continue through the weekend with advisory level winds potentially continuing for Santa Ana prone areas into Saturday. Temperatures will respond with about 6 degrees of warming on Saturday and another 1 to 2 degrees on Sunday. Max temps will be 6 to 12 degrees above normal both days with highs in the 80s to near 90 across the csts and vlys.
The ridge breaks down early next week. Onshore flow returns as well and this will bring 3 to 6 degrees of cooling to most areas. Max temps, however, will remain above normal.
Both the AI-GFS and AI-EC show no significant rain in the day 8 to 14 outlook period and favored continued above normal temperatures.
31/1725z.
At 1639Z over KLAX, the marine layer was 3500 ft deep. The top of the inversion was at 4800 feet with a temperature of 14 C.
Overall, moderate confidence in 18Z TAF Package. MVFR to VFR generally expected with 60% chance of -SHRA N of Pt Conception and a 20-40% chance S of Pt Conception.
KLAX, Moderate confidence in TAF. MVFR CIGs with VFR VSBYs and -SHRA/VCSH expected. There is a 20% chc of -RA 01/00-04Z. No significant east wind component expected.
KBUR, Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 20% chc of -RA 01/00-04Z.
31/715 AM.
High confidence in winds and seas staying under Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels through today. A weak frontal system will move across the coastal waters bringing light showers to the area today and tonight, mostly north of Point Conception. A few light showers could linger into Thursday across the northern waters.
Strong SCA winds with a moderate chance of low-end GALES is expected to develop for the coastal waters south of Point Conception (including nearshore and the Santa Barbara Channel) Wednesday night. These winds will become very widespread Thursday and will last through Friday morning.
Expecting seas to build quickly on Thursday, peaking Thursday night. Seas could reach SCA levels 10-12 feet over the outer waters and inner waters north of Point Sal. Seas for the southern inner waters could peak around 4 to 7 feet. Wave heights should drop off rather quickly as winds shift to the northeast Friday morning.
Ca, NONE. PZ, NONE.
