15/242 AM.
Warm but below normal temperatures will continue through Thursday, with expanding coastal morning low clouds. Temperatures are likely to increase towards the end of the week.
(tdy-Thu), 15/1001 AM.
***UPDATE***
Low clouds blanked coasts to coastal valleys this morning and even pushed into the Acton area. Trimmed back some coastal temperatures especially where low clouds are expected to persist the longest today such as near San Louis Obispo (temperatures down around 15 degrees from this time yesterday!). We did see a couple spots with drizzle this morning with another repeat possible into early Wednesday morning.
Looking into the future we continue to see quiet weather with no extreme ups or downs in temperatures for at least the next week.
***From Previous Discussion***
Pretty unexciting weather on tap for the short term. At the upper levels WSW flow will turn SW as an upper low moves into far nrn CA. Hgts will be around 587 dam. Mdt ocnl stg onshore flow will persist through the period.
Today a fairly strong eddy has spun up and the marine layer is currently 2200 ft and is rising under the eddy's influence. Most of the csts and vlys will wake up to a blanket of low clouds. The lift from the eddy may even produce some drizzle esp near the foothills. There will also be slower than normal clearing esp near the csts. Max temps will fall 2 to 4 degrees. Cst/Vly max temps will end up mostly in the mid 70s to mid 80s which is mostly 3 to 6 degrees blo normal.
Wednesday will be very similar day to today. Look for another robust marine layer in the morning. Most max temps will fall another 1 or 2 degrees.
The eddy looks like it will fizzle out some on Thursday morning and this will lead to less morning low clouds in the vlys and slightly faster clearing. The added sunshine will be countered by the lower hgts and max temps will be little changed.
(Fri-Mon), 15/242 AM.
Not much going on in the xtnd very weak ridging moves into the area Friday and continues into Saturday hgts may approach 588 dam. Mdt onshore flow will continue to the east. There will be weak offshore flow in the morning from the north but it will turn to weak onshore flow in the afternoon. The morning offshore push should reduce (but not eliminate) the morning low cloud coverage. Look for 2 to 4 degrees of warming each day. This will lead to max temps in the 70s and lower 80s across the csts and 80s in the vlys on Saturday. Despite the warming these max temps are still 2 to 4 degrees blo normal.
A weak, high hgt and dry upper low will move into the area Sunday and Monday. Its effects will be minimal, just an increase in marine layer clouds and a few degrees of cooling.
15/1728z.
At 1701Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 3200 feet deep. The top of the inversion was at 4500 feet with a temperature of 20 C.
High confidence a deep marine layer bringing low clouds to all coastal and valley sites (10% chance at KPMD & KWJF). MVFR conds will dominate south of Point Conception, with IFR to MVFR to the north. There is a 15% chance of -DZ at any site with low clouds late tonight into Wed morning.
North of Point Conception: 50% chance of no clearing today with IFR-MVFR conds continuing at KSBP/KSMX. Low confidence in arrival time (+/ 4 hours) and min cig height (+/- 500 ft) at KPRB tonight.
South of Point Conception: 30% chance of no clearing today with MVFR-VFR cigs continuing. Otherwise arrival times may be off +/- 3 hours and some sites may see cigs remain greater than BKN/OVC022 through the period.
KLAX, Moderate confidence in TAF except low confidence in clearing this morning. There is a 30% chance for no clearing of MVFR-VFR cigs, otherwise clearing time likely from now through 22Z. Cigs may remain above BKN/OVC022 through the period. Moderate confidence in any east wind component remaining below 8 kt after this morning and again late tonight.
KBUR, Moderate confidence in TAF except low confidence in clearing this morning. There is a 30% chance for no clearing of MVFR-VFR cigs, otherwise clearing time likely from now through 22Z.
15/803 AM.
Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds and seas over the outer waters are subsiding, but we will extend the current suite of SCAs through noon as steep, short period seas will linger. High confidence in relatively light winds over the area through Thursday morning, with a return of normal outer waters (and potentially Santa Barbara Channel) northwest SCA winds for Thursday night into the weekend. These winds will generate a building short period swell over all waters.
Stronger than usual southeast winds will likely continue through later this morning south of Point Conception. Gusts of 15-20 knots are possible and locally choppy seas could make conditions hazardous for smaller craft.
Ca, NONE. PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect until noon PDT today for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
