18/804 PM.
Dry and warm conditions are expected through Monday. Locally breezy onshore wind is expected Sunday into early next week. A weak to moderate storm system will bring widespread rain Monday Night through Tuesday, focused over San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara Counties. Impacts will generally be minor. Widespread gusty west to northwest winds will follow Wednesday through Friday.
(Sat-Tue), 18/819 PM.
Latest satellite and surface observations indicate partly cloudy skies across the area as high clouds drift overhead. Highs today were rather warm with coastal/valley areas topping out in the mid 70s to mid 80s.
Forecast-wise for the short term, models continue to be on the same synoptic page. Main feature of note remains upper level low, currently around 450 miles west of Washington state. Through the period, this upper low will drop south and east. moving inland across northern California during the day on Tuesday. As this pattern develops, a noticeable cooling trend can be expected for all areas with most areas about 4-8 degrees below normal by Tuesday.
By Monday and Tuesday, this upper low will bring another round of measurable precipitation to the area. Rain will develop across the Central Coast Monday evening with rain spreading south and east through the day on Tuesday. Based on current guidance, it looks like the rain band will lose it's "oomph" after it passes through Santa Barbara county. So, highest rain totals (0.50-1.50 inches) are expected across San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara counties with lesser amounts (0.10-0.50 inches) across Ventura and Los Angeles counties. Some foothill areas will likely see locally higher amounts due to orographic effects. Also, there still is a 10-20% chance that amounts could be around double of current expectations (based on some ensemble members). Rainfall rates are generally expected to be in the 0.10 to 0.33 inch/hour range, resulting in minimal hydrologic impacts. Additionally, there will be a 10-20% chance of thunderstorms on Tuesday across San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara counties.
As for snow levels, they look to remain above the 6500 to 7000 foot range. So, no significant snowfall impacts are anticipated.
(Wed-Sat), 18/1224 PM.
The closed low that will bring rain on Tuesday will open up and move to the northeast on Wednesday. Some projections have a weak shortwave rotating around the low and through San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara Counties. If this ends up happening, a few scattered showers would be around on Wednesday (about a 20% chance). These showers do not look convective and any impacts would be minor.
Winds will be on the rise for the back half of next week. Most projections show a classic post-frontal west to northwest wind push on Wednesday and Thursday, with fairly widespread gusts of 25 to 45 mph focused over coastal, mountain, and desert areas. The winds become more northwesterly later Thursday and Friday as a weak inside slider moves through, with winds focused over the more typically windy areas. Saturday could see continued northwest winds, or some solutions show the inside slide retrograding west and over our area. Temperatures will recover some for the end of the week, but just to about normal for this time of the year.
18/2312z.
At 2200Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 800 feet deep. The top of the inversion was 1200 feet with a temperature of 21 degrees Celsius.
Overall for the 00Z TAF package, high confidence in VFR conditions for KPRB, KSBP, KSBA, KOXR, KCMA, KBUR, KVNY, KPMD and KWJF.
For KSMX, there is a 40% chance of LIFR/VLIFR conditions 08Z-17Z. For KSMO, KLAX and KLGB, there is a 20% chance of IFR/LIFR conditions 09Z-17Z.
KLAX, High confidence in 00Z TAF as VFR conditions are likely through the period. There is a 20% chance of IFR/LIFR conditions 09Z-17Z. No significant easterly wind component is expected.
KBUR, High confidence in 00Z TAF as VFR conditions are expected through the period.
18/803 PM.
High confidence in winds and seas remaining below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels through Sunday. A system will move through the coastal waters Monday afternoon through Wednesday morning bringing a chance of showers to much of the area. Cannot rule out a thunderstorm or two across the northern waters Tuesday morning.
SCA level southerly winds are possible along the cold front. By Wednesday afternoon into the evening hours, SCA level NW winds will develop south of Point Conception. These winds will likely expand to include the majority of waters by Thursday afternoon. SCA winds may persist into the weekend at least for some waters.
Ca, NONE. PZ, NONE.
