22/916 AM.
Showers with a chance of thunderstorms will continue today. A weak Santa Ana will develop in the storm's wake by the weekend for dry and warmer conditions.
(tdy-Sat), 22/915 AM.
***UPDATE***
An upper level low was centered just S of Point Conception this morning and is forecast to move over VTU/L.A. Counties early this afternoon and E of the region by late afternoon. As it moves over the area, cyclonic flow aloft combined with additional instability due to solar heating will continue to develop showers and widely scattered thunderstorms over the forecast area through this afternoon. Flooding concerns remain in place due to high intensity rainfall potential. In addition, conditions remain favorable for potential severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and even the small chance of a brief, weak waterspout or tornado. Current forecast is in good shape and no forecast update is expected this morning.
***From Previous Discussion***
Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop and rotate into these areas through Thursday afternoon/eve - including LA/VTA as well. Street flooding will be possible along with flooding and debris flows near recent burn areas where a flood watch remains in effect.
Going forward, the models continue to aim the most rain towards SLO and Santa Barbara Counties, and particularly the Santa Ynez range and the south coast. Hourly rate rains could exceed an 1"/hr at times. The flood watch remains in effect and has been extended for SB county to 6 PM Thursday. No watches currently in effect in SLO County but any thunderstorms that develop could result in heavy rain and flooding.
For VTA/LA counties, shower and thunderstorm coverage should be less. However, this does NOT reduce the threat for damaging winds or even a small chance for a brief, weak tornado. It may even slightly increase the threat due to more of a discrete storm mode.
Dry and warmer weather will return Fri and Sat with light offshore in place. At this time any offshore winds are expected to mostly below advisory levels.
(Sun-Wed), 22/235 AM.
A low grade Santa Ana event will continue into next week continuing the dry and warmer pattern. Onshore flow is expected to return around mid week with temperatures returning to normal levels. There are some model solutions indicating a return of wet weather just after Halloween.
22/1138z.
At 11Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor an inversion.
Overall, low to moderate confidence in 12Z TAF package. Under any showers and thunderstorms MVFR-IFR conds is likely.
KLAX, Moderate confidence in 12Z TAF. Conditions should mostly remain VFR with MVFR possible at times. Isolated to widely scattered showers across the area through 23/09Z. Low chance of a thunderstorm or two (10-15%). Good confidence that any east wind component remains below 8 kts.
KBUR, Moderate confidence in 12Z TAF. Isolated to widely scattered showers across the area through 23/06Z. Low chance of a thunderstorm or two (10-15%). VFR CIGs expected except MVFR to IFR conds possible under any activity.
22/848 AM.
For the Outer Waters, high confidence in current forecast. Gusty Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds likely at times before winds shift more to NW and become more widespread on Friday. For Saturday through Monday morning, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels.
For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. There is a 30-40% chance of SCA level winds Friday afternoon and evening. Otherwise, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels through Monday morning.
For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. For today through Monday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels for most areas. The only exception will be the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel with a 50-70% chance of SCA level winds late Friday afternoon and evening.
Through today, showers and isolated thunderstorms will impact all of the coastal waters. Any thunderstorms that develop will be capable of producing gusty/erratic winds, locally rough seas and even waterspouts.
Ca, Flood Watch in effect until 6 PM PDT this evening for zones 348>353. (See LAXFFALOX). Beach Hazards Statement in effect through late tonight for zones 354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). Flood Watch in effect until 4 PM PDT this afternoon for zones 362-369-370. (See LAXFFALOX). PZ, NONE.
