25/1252 AM.
Hotter than normal conditions will continue for the foreseeable future, generally hottest through Sunday. Slight cooling is expected Monday through Wednesday, with heat increasing again Thursday into the weekend. The hot daytime and warm night conditions will bring elevated risks of heat-related illness. Gusty NW winds will affect SW Santa Barbara County at times, with gusty onshore winds over the interior.
(tdy-Mon), 25/917 AM.
***UPDATE***
Marine Layer clouds this morning were along the Central Coast and into the Oxnard Plain and Along the L.A. County Coast into LAX and Long Beach. These clouds are slowly burning off and should be gone by late morning. Then, a mostly sunny day is on tap, with some thin overhead clouds streaming overhead at times. High temperatures will be in the 80s and 90s away from the coast, 100-105 in the coastal and interior valleys, except Antelope Valley which will range between 100-108 degrees. Precipitable Water is still around 1.1 to 1.5 inches, so it still feels a bit humid outside, adding to the discomfort from the heat.
The forecast is in shape and no changes were needed to the short term morning update.
***From Previous Discussion***
A strong upper ridge remains centered over the Four Corners region, expanding westward over Southern California. Much of the area lies within widespread Heat Advisories - except for the Central Coast - with an Extreme Heat Warning for the Antelope Valley. These headlines remain in effect through Monday night. Warm overnight lows, especially over the foothills and mountains, will add to the heat impacts.
Gusty onshore winds were observed over the interior yesterday, with the Antelope Valley and Foothills gusting 30 to 40 mph. Across SW Santa Barbara County, Sundowner winds are in the same general range. These winds will be common each late afternoon to evening or overnight period through the short term, but will likely peak this afternoon and tonight. There is a 30% chance for a low-end Wind Advisory will be possible for southwest Santa Barbara County. The chance is low enough to not issue it right now but to continue to monitor the latest guidance.
Fairly high confidence that marine layer clouds will continue to fill in the southern Central Coast, extending inland to the Santa Ynez Valley. The persistent marine layer in this area is likely responsible for cooler daytime highs there. Similar high confidence that the SBA South Coast will remain clear as northerly winds continue to affect the Santa Ynez Range. Much lower confidence further south, with minimal/short lived ceilings possible for the Ventura Coast, and a slightly better chance for the LA Coast.
Several models show ample mid-to-upper level moisture rotating around the upper level ridge and into southern California Saturday Night through Sunday Night. This moisture is from afternoon convection over Mexico, which includes a couple of weak disturbances. Fat drop light showers are possible anywhere in Los Angeles and maybe Ventura Counties during this period. The mountains and deserts have the highest chances and decided to add some slight chances for Sunday afternoon and evening. This impulse also carries a 5 to 10% chance for thunderstorms, which could be a fire ignition source.
(Tue-Fri), 25/1252 AM.
The large area of high pressure will continue to dominate through next week. The core of the high will shift a little to the east Tuesday through Wednesday and bring a touch of relief to the heat, but only by a few degrees. Coastal areas will see the most noticeable drop as onshore pressure gradients strengthen some and low clouds and fog will likely expand some.
The majority of the ensemble solutions show the ridge of high pressure pushing back to the west around Friday or Saturday of next week. This will likely push temperatures back up a few degrees, but the warming may be mainly focused over the mountains and interior valleys as the onshore flow changes little. Thankfully, precipitable water values do not shoot up like they have over our last week or two of warm ups, which means the air will feel drier than it has.
25/1800z.
At 1654Z over KLAX, the marine layer was 1400 ft deep. The top of the inversion was 3500 ft with a max temperature of 28 Celsius.
High confidence in VFR conditions through Sunday at KPRB, KSBP, KSBA, KBUR, KVNY, KPMD AND KWJF. Chances for MVFR cigs at KOXR until early this afternoon is high. Chances for cigs tonight into Sunday morning, LIFR/IFR conds at KSMX (70%), IFR/MVFR conds at KOXR (60%) KCMA (60%) KSMO (60%) KLAX (70%) KLGB (80%). Timing of onset of low clouds tonight may be off +/- an hour or two. Winds will be similar to last 24 hours.
KLAX, 60% chance of BKN010-012 11-17Z Sunday. High confidence in any east winds staying under 6 knots.
KBUR, High confidence in VFR through Sunday with typical winds.
25/826 AM.
High confidence in persistently strong NW winds from the Central Coast to San Nicolas Island through at least Tuesday Night. Gusts of 30-40 knots will be common each afternoon and night, bordering between strong Small Craft Advisory (SCA) and low-end Gale Warnings. These winds will also affect the western Santa Barbara Channel each night, and may cover enough of the channel to need a SCA. With these winds, widespread choppy or steep seas is likely. In addition, patches of dense fog are possible anywhere through Sunday or Monday, especially off the Central Coast.
25/829 AM.
A long period, southern hemisphere swell will arrive this morning and will add to the continuing swell from Hurricane Fausto. This swell will result in an increased risk of dangerous rip currents across the coastal beaches, as well as elevated surf of 3-6 ft across the Los Angeles and Ventura County Beaches. Therefore, Beach Hazard Statements are in effect through the weekend for Los Angeles and Ventura County beaches and the Central Coast beaches. Rip currents and elevated surf will be strongest across south to southwest facing beaches and harbors such as Avila Beach.
The Eastern Pacific looks to remain active with tropical systems over the next couple of weeks. This could result in additional southerly swells to impact the coastline.
Ca, Heat Advisory remains in effect until 8 PM PDT Monday for zones 38-88-342>345-348>358-362-366>382-548. (See LAXNPWLOX). Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Sunday evening for zones 340-346-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). Extreme Heat Warning in effect until 8 PM PDT Monday for zone 383. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Sunday for zones 645-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 6 PM this evening to 3 AM PDT Sunday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 2 PM PDT this afternoon for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Sunday for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
