17/728 AM.
Near to slightly below normal temperatures are expected to continue today with areas of low clouds and fog clearing by afternoon. Gusty winds are expected at times across the mountains and deserts. Hazardous seas will affect the coastal waters through at least tonight. Warmer temperatures are expected this coming week with some locally breezy Santa Ana winds on Monday.
(tdy-Tue), 17/744 AM.
***UPDATE***
Gusty northwest to north winds across the mountains, Antelope Valley and southwest Santa Barbara County peaked last night and early this morning and are expected to weaken today but remain gusty at times. The current slate of high wind warnings will end at 9am but based on the latest hi res models a low end wind advisory may be needed for southwest Santa Barbara County this evening due to lingering Sundowners there.
Otherwise, the marine layer this morning was mostly confined to LA County and northern Santa Barbara County and should clear off in most areas by noon. Gradients are starting to trend offshore but warming will mostly have to wait until Monday when a low grade Santa Ana wind event develops.
***From Previous Discussion***
As is usually the case with an inside slider's passage a Santa Ana Wind event will set up in its wake. While the actual offshore pressure on Monday will not be too strong the trend from 9mb onshore at 00Z Mon to -2mb at 12Z is so strong that is will likely generate a decent offshore wind field. There is some upper support as well and there is about a 40 percent chc that the wind speeds will reach advisory levels in the morning. The offshore push should eliminate the marine layer clouds everywhere save for the Long Beach area. The offshore push will bring 3 to 6 locally 8 degrees of warming to most areas.
Weaker offshore flow will bring some non advisory canyon winds to the area Tuesday morning. Low clouds, if any, will again be confined to the LGB area. Rising hgts, the lack of cool air from the interior and continued offshore flow will bring 1 to 3 degrees of warming to the csts, 3 to 5 degrees over the vlys and 4 to 8 degrees for the mtns and far interior. Max temps Tuesday will mostly be 4 to 8 degrees above normal with 70s and a few lower 80s across the csts and 80s in the vlys.
(Wed-Sat), 17/220 AM.
One last day of weak offshore and minimal marine layer clouds will make Wednesday the warmest day of the week. Look for 1 to 3 degrees of warming with some vly max temps approaching 90.
Look for a benign upper level pattern to return Thursday and continue through Saturday. At the same time onshore flow will increase some each day. This will reinvigorate the marine layer stratus and most csts and some vlys will wake up to clouds each morning. Winds will not be an issue. Max temps will fall 3 to 6 degrees across the csts/vlys on Thursday. All areas will see 3 to 4 degrees of cooling Friday. Saturday's cooling of 1 to 2 degrees will bring max temps down into the upper 60s through the upper 70s across the csts and vlys.
17/0938z.
At 0832Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 3800 ft deep. The top of the inversion was at 4900 ft with a temperature of 12 C.
Good confidence in TAFs for KPRB, KSBP, KPMD and KWJF.
Moderate confidence in TAF for KSBA with a 30 percent chc of MVFR cigs 10Z-18Z.
Moderate confidence in TAFs for KOXR and KCMA with a 30 percent chc of no low clouds.
Moderate confidence in the remainder of the TAFs. VFR conds could arrive +/- 90 minutes from forecast time.
KLAX, Moderate confidence in TAF. VFR conds could arrive anytime between 17Z and 19Z. There is a 30 percent chc of an 8kt east wind component 12Z-16Z.
KBUR, Moderate confidence in TAF. VFR conds could arrive anytime between 1630Z and 1830Z.
17/805 AM.
Dangerous sea conditions will continue through tonight across the coastal waters, lingering into Monday morning. These conditions could capsize or damage small and large vessels. Mariners should remain in safe harbor.
Winds are expected to decrease below GALE levels tonight, especially for the Outer Waters south of Point Sal. Lingering Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level conditions (including steep seas) are likely (80-100% chance) to follow the GALES into at least Monday morning across the Outer Waters, potentially into the afternoon (50% chance).
For the Santa Barbara Channel, the GALE WARNING was pushed back to begin this afternoon, but steep seas still warrant a SCA issuance for this morning. Winds are expected to drop off rapidly tonight, but seas may still be steep enough to warrant a SCA for a few hours after.
Steep, choppy seas will linger into the early afternoon adjacent to the Los Angeles and Orange County coasts, but winds are expected to remain below SCA levels.
Much improved conditions are then expected for the rest of the week, with marginal SCA level winds possible each afternoon/evening across the Outer Waters and Santa Barbara Channel.
16/1052 PM.
A combination of strong winds, large seas, and moderately high evening high tides may lead to high surf with minor coastal flooding possible this weekend. High Surf advisories and Beach Hazard statements have been issued across the entire coastline. Please refer to CFWLOX for more details for your area.
In general, hazardous surfing and swimming conditions are expected with strong rip currents. Minor beach erosion and minor coastal flooding is possible, mainly during the evening high tides.
Ca, High Surf Advisory in effect until 9 AM PDT Monday for zones 340-346-354. (See LAXCFWLOX). Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Monday morning for zones 349-350-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ, Gale Warning in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 2 PM PDT this afternoon for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect from 2 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until noon PDT today for zone 655. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect until 9 AM PDT Monday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
