02/939 AM.
Another storm system arrive Saturday bringing rain and high elevation snow through Sunday along with some gusty winds at times. Broader troughing over the West will keep a cooler weather pattern in place into next week with cool days and cold nights.
(tdy-Sun), 02/953 AM.
***UPDATE***
Moisture moving up from Mexico is generating scattered light showers across the area today but otherwise it will be cloudy and cool today ahead of the next system coming in Saturday with lingering showers into Sunday and Monday. Models are still indicating the heavier amounts will be mostly from the western Ventura Mountains up through SB and SLO Counties while the rest of the area receives mostly light to locally moderate rain through that period and rain amounts in the 1-2 inch range.
***From Previous Discussion***
Fog should mix out by late morning, then cyclonic flow should start to develop as the next storm system, sitting near 40N and 136N, approaches the region. Rain will spread over the area between tonight and Saturday night. With high-resolution multi- model ensembles and AI ensemble members of the EPS and GEFS indicating almost all of the solutions with rain, PoPs were nudged to categorical levels over most of the area for Saturday, and push higher than NBM values through Sunday. Rainfall amounts range mostly remain unchanged with 1.00 to 3.00 inches being common across the coast and valleys with up to 3.00 to 6.00 inches in the foothills and mountains. Rainfall rates with the system will most likely range between 0.25 to 0.50 inch/hour, but local rates up to 0.50 to 0.75 inch/hour are likely, especially in the foothills and mountains. With rates approaching levels of concern for the recent burn scars, a flash flood watch may need to be considered later today when the timing and amounts become a little more firm.
Snow levels will remain above 6500 feet for the entirety of the storm, but a rain/snow mix could drop down to 6000 feet, especially on Sunday night when the latest model solutions suggest 700 mb temperatures dropping to -4 to -5 degrees Celsius. Snowfall accumulations from 2 to 6 inches will likely occur at the resort level (above 7500 feet). Local amounts up to 9 to 12 inches are possible on the highest mountain peaks.
Gusty southerly winds will begin to develop today and tonight across the region as the surface pressure pattern starts to tighten. High-resolution multi-model ensembles continue to suggest the most impactful winds across the mountains and foothills north of Point Conception. Wind advisories have been added for the higher elevations of the Ventura and Santa Barbara County mountains, interior San Luis Obispo County, and the Santa Lucia mountains from this afternoon or this evening through Saturday evening. There is a high chance that wind advisories could be expanded into the Central Coast and the Santa Ynez and southern portion of the Salinas Valley. EPS ensemble members suggest wind gust means sitting just shy of advisory levels, but high-resolution multi-model ensembles give a high-to-likely (40-60 percent) chance of low-end wind advisory level gusts. Given the wet soils in place, trees could be downed by the winds, especially in the Santa Lucia range where wind gusts could be the strongest as the frontal boundary approaches late tonight and into Saturday morning.
(Mon-Thu), 02/248 AM.
The forecast ensembles favor another storm system moving over the region between Monday and Tuesday. This system looks to be colder and drier, but there will likely be more of a convective element involved with this storm. A difluent flow pattern developing aloft in some of the medium-range deterministic solutions and 500 mb temperatures dropping to below -25 degrees Celsius could bring isolated thunderstorms with brief heavy downpours, small hail, and gusty winds into the mix. Snow levels could lower down to 5000 feet with this storm system, as well. Outside of any convective storms, rainfall amounts should be light with most areas seeing 0.25 to 0.50 inch of rainfall.
A cold air mass will likely settle into the region for the first full week of 2026. High temperatures across most coastal and valleys area will be the upper 50s and 60s with frost or freeze conditions possible in some of the valley areas. Overnight low temperatures could dip into the 30s across the valleys and some portions of the interior coastal sections as almost a due northerly flow pattern develops. CMC ensembles members suggest temperatures dipping into the 20s out in the Antelope Valley late next week. For now, NBM values are in the forecast, but stay tuned as this is the developing story.
02/1604z.
At 16Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer.
Isolated but light showers could form anywhere through this evening - low confidence on timing and coverage. The next storm system which will bring steady moderate rain later tonight and/or Saturday - moderate confidence in timing (+/- 4 hours) and ceilings (+/- 1 flight category).
KLAX, Moderate confidence in flight category forecast with periods of -RA and MVFR-VFR common. Brief IFR is possible during peak rain of rain (20Z Saturday to 08Z Sunday). Moderate confidence that winds will stay either east, southeast, or south (with little to no west component) through 03Z Monday. Low confidence on wind speed.
KBUR, Moderate confidence in flight category forecast with periods of -RA and MVFR-VFR common. Brief IFR is possible during peak rain of rain (20Z Saturday to 08Z Sunday).
02/747 AM.
A storm system will affect the region this afternoon through the weekend, bringing periods of rain, low visibility, gusty south winds, and a remote risk of strong thunderstorms and waterspouts. Although there will be breaks in the hazardous conditions, mariners should consider staying in safe harbor through at least the weekend.
High confidence in south to southeast wind gusts of 30-40 knots and steep seas from San Miguel Island and northward through the Central Coast forming later today and lasting into early Saturday. Gale Warnings are in effect. High confidence in southeast wind gusts of 20-30 knots for the rest of the waters forming by tonight and lasting into Thursday. Another round of south winds, about 5 knots weaker, will push through the area on Sunday.
Another storm system will likely affect the waters Monday through Tuesday or Wednesday, but low confidence on the details.
02/747 AM.
Abnormally large high tides between 7.0 and 7.5 feet MLLW will occur each morning through Sunday, roughly between 8 am and 11 am. A mixture of south wind swells and a longer period west swell will combine with these tides to elevate the risk of coastal flooding. Similar events in the past suggest that any impacts will be minor, but folks should plan for some shallow flooding of normally dry beach areas (including bike paths and walkways) as well as vulnerable harbor areas. Rain is also expected at this time, which will enhance the risk for isolated impactful flood due to the combination of outflow from streams and storm drains. This is especially the case for areas like Naples Island.
Elevated surf and strong currents are also expected, especially this weekend. While conditions could briefly touch High Surf criteria, the current plan (which may change if conditions warrant and upgrade) is to keep the Beach Hazards Statement in place to handle these elements.
Ca, Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Sunday afternoon for zones 87-340-346-349-350-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 PM PST Saturday for zone 342. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect from 8 PM this evening to 6 PM PST Saturday for zones 344-345. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect from 1 PM this afternoon to 6 PM PST Saturday for zones 353-376-377. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect until 8 PM PST this evening for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect from 8 PM this evening to 3 AM PST Saturday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 8 AM PST Saturday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 6 PM PST this evening for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect from 6 PM this evening to 3 AM PST Saturday for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 9 PM this evening to 8 AM PST Saturday for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
