03/146 PM.
Onshore flow will continue to bring low clouds to the coasts and coastal valleys each night through morning period. Weaker onshore flow will mean decreasing clouds in the valleys and gradually warming temperatures. Expect a return to near-normal temperatures by middle of next week with 80s and low 90s for many valley locations by that time.
(tdy-Sun), 03/146 PM.
Generally quiet weather will continue across the local area through the short term periods with gradual warming expected each afternoon through the Holiday weekend. As expected, the influence of the marine layer continues to wane across inland locations as onshore flow weakens, although night through morning clouds will continue to impact coastal locations each day. Temperatures early this afternoon have ranged from the upper 60s near the coast to mid 80s across inland locations.
For the next several days, expect heights aloft to continue to rise as the trough of low pressure that has helped promote cooler than normal temperatures and a deep marine layer that past few days shift east, resulting in valley temperatures climbing into the mid 80s by Sunday afternoon with mid 90s across far inland locations. Gusty afternoon into evening winds are also expected across the Antelope valley each day, but should remain below advisory levels through the short term period.
(Mon-Thu), 03/146 PM.
High pressure aloft across the four corners area early next week will shift west through mid-week, helping to contribute to additional warming, with 500 mb heights peaking around 594 dam Wednesday afternoon. A weak trough of low pressure passing by to the north Wednesday evening will knock down upper level heights to end the week, before high pressure builds back across the southwest next weekend.
Overall, this is a dry weather pattern for the local area with above normal temperatures expected through at least the end of next week with weak onshore flow limiting the influence of the marine layer to mainly coastal locations. At this point, temperatures will likely peak several degrees above normal on Wednesday, and remain above normal for the foreseeable future with CPC outlooks continuing to heavily favor above normal temperatures through at least week 2. This will result in a minor (valley) to moderate (far inland) heat risk across the local area. Finally, an increased pressure gradient Tuesday through Thursday will result in a return to modest sundowner winds mid-week.
03/1804z.
At 1732Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1700 feet deep. The top of the inversion was 3000 feet with a temperature of 21 C.
High confidence in 18Z TAFs at KWJF and KPMD.
For remaining airfields, mdt to hi confidence that cigs tonight into Sat morning should vary between 004 and 012. There is a 20%-30% chance of LIFR cigs at KSMX between 11Z-14Z Sat morning. Timing of low clouds could be off +/- an hour or two.
KLAX, Mdt confidence in 18Z TAF. VFR conds can be expected thru about 04/06Z and again aft about 04/18Z. Low to mdt confidence on low cloud return timing aft 04/06Z. No significant easterly wind component is expected.
KBUR, Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. VFR conds can be expected thru about 04/09Z and again aft about 04/16Z. Mdt confidence in low cloud return timing around 04/09Z with cigs 004-007.
03/1248 PM.
For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Through Saturday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels. For Sunday through Thursday, there is a 50-80% chance of SCA level winds. Seas will begin gradually increasing Sunday and will approach advisory levels mid-week.
For the Inner Water north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Through Sunday, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels. There is a 30% chance of SCA level winds on Monday and a 60% chance Tuesday & Wednesday.
For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Through Tuesday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels for most of the southern Inner Waters. The only exception will be the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel where there is a 40-60% chance of SCA level Sunday through Wednesday, mainly in the late afternoon and evening hours.
Ca, NONE. PZ, NONE.
