03/1210 PM.
It will remain cool on Monday and Tuesday with a slight chance of drizzle or a light shower. Gusty onshore winds are expected Tuesday afternoon. Dry and warmer conditions are likely Wednesday through next weekend.
(tdy-Wed), 03/1231 PM.
Clouds from a 4000 ft marine layer are struggling to clear this afternoon, keeping temperatures mostly in the upper 50s to mid 60s at noon, 10-25 degrees below yesterday. Probably won't see too much more warming today except in the Antelope Valley where highs will be in the 70s. Still a 5-10% chance for a shower or brief thunderstorm in the mountains due to instability from the upper low.
A slow moving upper low just off the coast will continue to create a deep marine layer at least through Monday and likely into Tuesday unless the inversion gets too weak, which is possible. In any case, temperatures will remain well below normal with highs mostly in the 60s. Brief periods of drizzle or light rain are possible each of the next two days, though more likely across the eastern San Gabriel Mountains and adjacent foothills and the Central Coast. Lowest chances for rain will be from southeastern Santa Barbara County through southwestern LA County where downslope flow off the Transverse range will limit rain from reaching the surface. Any amounts should remain below a quarter inch, with many areas getting little to no rain.
Gusty west to northwest winds are expected following the system Tuesday afternoon and evening, possibly requiring wind advisories in some areas.
A warming trend will begin Wednesday and continue into next weekend.
(Thu-Sun), 03/1252 PM.
Models continue to favor a return to summer-like weather later next week and especially next weekend into the following week. A strong ridge of high pressure start building over the eastern Pacific Friday and move onshore will move over the region over next weekend and likely peak early the following week (May 11-12). Models are also showing a little north to northeast gradient during that time to provide an additional boost in temps. By next Sunday and Monday there is a 40-50% chance of 90 degree temps in Downtown LA and 100 degrees in the warmer valleys.
03/1756z.
At 17Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 4200 feet with an inversion to 6200 feet at 9C.
High confidence TAFs for KWJF and KPMD.
Moderate confidence in increasing cig heights through the period with a rapidly deepening moist layer. However, there is a 10-20 percent chance of -dz/-shra and at least brief MVFR cigs/vsbys at pretty much anytime through the TAF period.
KLAX, Moderate confidence in TAF. There there is a 30 percent chc of SCT conds 21Z-01Z. No significant easterly wind component is expected.
KBUR, Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 30 percent chc of SCT conds aft 20Z.
03/136 PM.
Increasing risk of SCA conditions for the entire Santa Barbara Channel, especially central and eastern portions this evening with a 30 percent of SCA conditions developing.
There is a 30-60% chance of SCA level W to NW winds across the waters south of Point Conception Tuesday afternoon and evening. SCA conditions are most likely near the Channel Islands and across the Santa Barbara Channel.
Also, there is a 30% chance for SCA winds across the nearshore waters along the Central Coast during the aforementioned timeframe.
From Wednesday through Friday, winds are expected to increase each day across the Outer Waters and along the Central coast. SCA winds are possible on Wednesday, and likely Thursday into Friday. These winds could impact western portion of SB Channel by then.
Ca, NONE. PZ, NONE.
