22/355 PM.
Mild weather is expected through the weekend, with daytime highs generally within a few degrees of normal. May gray low clouds and fog will spread over the coasts and valleys each night through morning period. Monday into at least the middle of next week, well below normal temperatures are likely with areas of gusty evening winds.
(Fri-Mon), 22/835 PM.
***UPDATE***
Fairly typical May Grey Day, starting off with a deep marine layer and clouds pushing well into the coastal valleys. High termperatures today were in the 70s to low 80s away from the immediate coast, which were in the 60s, and the far interior locations were in the 80s to low 90s.
As for winds, the interior San Luis Obispo and Antelope Valley floor and foothills had gusty winds maxing out in the 30s (except for local gusts in the 40s at Lake Palmdale). Conditions tomorrow will be very similar, save for the marine layer low clouds and fog that may push into the low elevations of the foothills and into the Santa Clarita Valley tonight into tomorrow. Otherwise a repeat of sub-advisory, gusty, west to southwest winds across the interior and not much change in high temperatures (compared to today) is expected.
Besides slight adjustment in marine layer clouds and a slight bump up in high temperatures for tomorrow for the very NW tip of San Luis Obispo County, no other changes were needed and the forecast is in shape.
***From Previous Discussion***
Mild weather conditions are expected through Monday. Today deep marine layer stratus has been rather slow to clear at some coastal areas, particularly Santa Barbara County northward. The clouds may last for much of the day at some beach locations. Daytime highs will cool a few degrees compared to yesterday, and breezy southwest winds will occur across inland San Luis Obispo County and the Antelope Valley this afternoon and evening, though will stay below advisory levels.
Temperatures will be within a few degrees of normal for most areas with little change each day through the weekend. Expect highs in the upper 60s to upper 70s across the coasts and most valleys, and mid to upper 80s for the warmest valleys and the Antelope Valley. Then Monday, a small trough will pass through the region and highs will cool a few degrees.
Moderate to strong onshore flow will maintain the low clouds and fog overnight and each morning. The marine layer may deepen each day and spread well into the inland valleys (such as the Santa Clarita Valley) by either Saturday or Sunday morning. The onshore gradients will support continued gusty southwesterly winds across the deserts each afternoon. Onshore flow is favored to peak Monday, thus winds across the deserts are likely to be greatest at that time (30 to 45 mph gusts) and wind advisories may be needed.
(Tue-Fri), 22/135 PM.
A low pressure system is favored to drop into the Great Basin Tuesday through Thursday. The cold airmass will result in a cooling trend, bringing most highs to 5-10 degrees below normal (mid 60s to mid 70s common). May Gray will continue through at least mid next week due to moderate to strong onshore flow, and drizzle will be possible in some foothill locations.
Additionally the low will bring an increase in northwesterly flow across the area. Winds will be the strongest on Tuesday afternoon and evening. Northwest to westerly gusts of 20 to 35 mph are favored along the Central Coast and beaches of Southern Santa Barbara County and Ventura County. Northwest gusts of 30-45 mph are possible for southwestern Santa Barbara County. Southwest gusts near Advisory Level are likely across the Antelope Valley as well.
By Friday, the low pressure system is favored to exit the area to the east, and 500 mb heights will trend upwards. Temperatures will trend upwards, warming to within a few degrees of normal.
23/0355z.
At 0350Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1500 feet deep. The top of the inversion was 4700 feet with a temperature of 17 degrees Celsius.
For 06Z TAF package, high confidence in KWJF and KPMD. For all other sites, moderate confidence in forecasts as flight category changes could be up to +/- 3 hours of current forecasts.
KLAX, Moderate confidence in 06Z TAF. Flight category changes could be +/- 2 hours of current forecasts. No significant easterly wind component is expected.
KBUR, Moderate confidence in 06Z TAF. Flight category changes could be +/- 2 hours of current forecasts.
22/828 PM.
High confidence in fairly quiet conditions through the weekend with minimal risks of Small Craft Advisories (SCA) except for very localized winds of 20 to 25 kt just south of Point Conception each evening.
Winds and seas are expected to increase Monday through Thursday. High confidence in SCA conditions for the outer waters from the Central Coast to San Nicolas Island. Moderate risk of SCA for the nearshore Central Coast waters and the Santa Barbara Channel, with a low risk elsewhere. Choppy seas will be building everywhere as a result of those winds.
Ca, NONE. PZ, NONE.
