02/305 AM.
Onshore flow will continue to bring low clouds to the coasts and coastal valleys each night and morning. Weaker onshore flow, will bring decreasing clouds to the valleys with gradually warming temperatures. Expect a return to near- normal temperatures by early next week with 90s for many valley locations by that time.
(tdy-Sat), 02/305 AM.
Very uneventful weather on tap heading into and through the holiday weekend. Weak cyclonic flow will persist over Srn CA through Friday with weak SW linear flow setting up Saturday. Hgts will rise through the period from about 581 dam Wednesday afternoon to 590 dam Saturday afternoon due to an upper high to the SE gradually becoming more dominate. At the sfc mdt to stg onshore flow will persist although it will weaken by around a half mb each day.
Marine layer clouds will slowly form each evening and overnight across the csts and most vlys. Clearing will be slow as well with most locations not seeing Sun until the late morning or early afternoon.
The rising hgts and offshore trends will bring a three day warming trend to areas away from the the beaches. The vlys will see max temps warm from near 80 degrees today to the mid and upper 80s Saturday. The warming will be less dramatic across the csts due to the strong onshore flow will max temps rising from the mid 70s to the upper 70s. Even with the 3 day warming trend max temps will still end up 3 to 6 degrees blo normal on Saturday.
The stg onshore flow to the east will bring gusty sub-advisory winds each afternoon across the western Antelope Valley with gusts to around 35 mph (and isolated gusts to 45 mph in the western foothills)
(Sun-Wed), 02/305 AM.
Slight troffing as well as some hgt falls will occur on Sunday. This along with a slight uptick in the onshore flow will bring a little more low clouds to the area as well as slightly slower clearing. Max temps will fall 2 to 4 degrees as a result.
There will be very little change in both the synoptic parameters and the sensible weather on Monday.
A change in the weather will slowly start next Tuesday and will continue into Wednesday. An upper high to the south of the state will begin to assert itself and will push higher hgts into Srn CA. At the same time the onshore flow will begin to relax esp in the N/S direction (there is a 30 percent chc it will be weakly offshore in the morning). These two factors will lower the marine layer and limit its inland penetration. They will also allow for better and quicker clearing in the morning. Less marine layer clouds, weaker onshore flow and rising hgts only spell one thing: increasing max temps. Look for 2 to 4 degrees of warming on Tuesday with an additional 1 to 3 degrees next Wednesday. If this pans out Wednesday's max temps will in the upper 80s to mid 90s in the vlys, which is very close to normal. The considerable onshore flow to the east will limit the coastal warming where max temps will still be 2 to 3 degrees below normal.
Peering further ahead there is decent mdl agreement indicating an upper high with ~594 dam hgts moving into Srn CA. This would lead to above normal temps - perhaps well above normal if the gradients weaken.
02/1005z.
At 0832Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1600 ft deep. The top of the inversion was 4700 feet with a temperature of 18 C.
High confidence in TAFs for KPMD and KWJF.
Low confidence in the TAF for KSBA with a 40 percent chc of low MVFR cigs 14Z-18Z
Moderate confidence for all other sites. VFR conds may arrive +/- 90 minutes from fcst time. Cigs may be off by +/- 400 ft.
KLAX, Moderate confidence in TAF. VFR conds could arrive as early as 1930Z or as late as 2100Z. No significant easterly wind component is expected.
KBUR, Moderate confidence in TAF. VFR conds could arrive as late as 20Z (30 percent chc).
02/305 AM.
For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Friday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels. For Saturday through Monday, there is a 50-70% chance of SCA level winds.
For the Inner Water north of Point Sal, high confidence in current forecast. Today through Sunday, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels. On Monday, there is a 20% chance of SCA level winds in the afternoon and evening hours.
For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Monday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels for most of the southern Inner Waters. The only exception will be the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel where there is a 30-50% chance of SCA level winds Thursday through Monday, mainly during the late afternoon and evening hours.
Ca, NONE. PZ, NONE.
