27/1206 PM.
A low pressure system will bring cool temperatures and a chance of drizzle or light showers, as well as gusty winds to the beaches, mountains, and deserts through Thursday. A warming trend will begin Friday and continue into next week.
(tdy-Sat), 27/106 PM.
A cold low pressure continues to spin over northern California, creating some weak ascent across southern California along with some isolated showers (amounts under 0.05"), so far mostly confined to southwest Santa Barbara County. This coincides with a pocket of -23c degree air in that area as two small upper lows dumbbell around each other, keeping the center of the system mostly stationary. Scattered light showers and possibly a thunderstorm are possible this evening, but mainly over the mountains where the upslope flow will combine with the ascent created by the cold air aloft. Amounts are expected to remain under a quarter inch.
Tomorrow the other embedded upper low will rotate through the area, with latest high res models focusing in on the Central Coast. Ensembles are indicating a slight increase in PWs Thursday, but at the same time instability is expected to be less as there is warmer air aloft. So rain amounts should end up a little higher than today north of Pt Conception, possibly as much as 0.30-0.40", but smaller chances for any thunderstorms. South of Pt Conception chances for any additional are under 20 percent.
A warming and drying trend will begin Friday as the entire system moves into Nevada. At the same time onshore flow will be weakening, possibly even turning slightly offshore by Saturday. Most areas will warm up 3-6 degrees Friday, with a similar trend for Saturday.
(Sun-Wed), 27/131 PM.
Neutral or slight offshore flow will continue at least into early next week while a ridge of high pressure starts to build along the West coast. Low 90s are likely across the warmer valleys Sunday or Monday while coastal areas more than 5-10 degrees inland (including Downtown LA) will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s, generally 4-8 degrees above normal. Any offshore flow likely won't have much impact at the coast where highs will be near normal, mostly in the mid 60s to low 70s. And roughly a 60-80 percent chance of marine layer stratus each morning within 10 miles of the coast.
Slight warming into Tuesday then leveling off the rest of the week as high pressure aloft continues.
28/0126z.
At 00Z at KLAX, there was a 1500 ft deep moist layer.
Overall, moderate confidence in 00Z TAF Package. Lower confidence in timing of rain and cigs, with best chances for rain for KPRB, KSBP, KSMX, and KSBA. Sites may fluctuate between VFR and MVFR cigs.
KLAX, Moderate confidence in TAF. MVFR conditions are possible at times overnight, with lower confidence in timing. Lower confidence in timing of rain chances. Any east wind component will be 6kt or less, best chances from 13 to 16Z.
KBUR, Moderate confidence in TAF.MVFR conditions are possible at times overnight, with lower confidence in timing. Lower confidence in timing of rain chances.
27/1230 PM.
Buoy observations indicate winds have significantly diminished across the coastal waters. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) conditions are expected to linger through this evening (especially beyond 30 NM from shore). Conditions will remain below advisory levels on Thursday, with the best chance for showers (70-90%) north of Point Sal. SCA conditions will return Friday afternoon through the weekend - could reach into the inner waters at times. There is also a chance for GALE force winds on Saturday.
Ca, High Surf Advisory in effect until 11 PM PDT this evening for zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect until 10 PM PDT this evening for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 11 PM PDT this evening for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
