06/1224 AM.
A moderate Santa Ana wind event will start today and will continue through Sunday. Temperatures will warm each day through Sunday when widespread highs in the 80s are expected. No rain is expected for the upcoming week.
(tdy-Sun), 06/249 AM.
Moderate northerly gradients and upper level flow over the area are bringing advisory level (35 to 50 mph) gusts to the mtns and areas below N/S oriented passed and canyons. The gradients are currently switching over to a more NE direction (East grads increasing and N grads decreasing) and this will switch the winds from north to NE (Santa Ana) direction. This switch in the sfc pressure gradients will then align with an uptick in 850 mb winds which also will change direction to the NE. This combination will bring warning level wind gusts (60 to 65 mph) to the Santa Susana Mountains, the Western San Gabriel Mountains (including the Highway 14 Corridor and the Eastern San Gabriel Mountains. Advisory level winds will cover the rest of the Santa Ana wind corridor. Please see the product LAXNPWLOX for all the details. Most areas will see a few degrees of warming (perhaps not as much as one might expect as there is quite a bit of cool air left over) and most max temps across the csts/vlys will be in the 70s or 2 to 4 degrees above normal.
The winds will peak on Saturday morning as the upper level support from 850mb to 500mb all align to the NE and integrate with 5 to 6 mb of offshore flow from both the N and E at the sfc. The wind advisories end at 300pm but looking at the gradient trends in the afternoon and into Sunday it looks likely that the advisories will need extending into Sunday. Look for a big warm up as the offshore flow will combine with the sunny skies, rising hgts and an overall warmer atmosphere to bring 4 to 8 degrees of warming to the windier portions of LA/VTA counties and 2 to 4 degrees elsewhere. Max temps in the Santa Ana area will be 10 to 15 degrees above normal with highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Lower to mid 70s temperatures will occur over most of rest of the cst/vlys.
The dry air and clear skies will team up to bring lower than normal overnight temps to the wind sheltered areas Saturday Night.
On Sunday an upper low will retrograde to the SW and set up to the SSW of San Diego this position will maintain the NE flow over the area. Offshore flow will be equal to or even a little greater than it was on Saturday and as mentioned above the wind advisories will likely need extending into Sunday afternoon (There will only be advisory level winds in the mtns as opposed to the warning level gusts occuring today and Saturday. Continued offshore flow and a lack of cool air advection into the far interior will lead to warming across the entire area. Almost all cst/vly temps will be in the 80s with 70s everywhere else save for the higher mtn elevations. These max temps are mostly 12 to 18 degrees over normal.
(Mon-Thu), 06/248 AM.
The offshore push will only be half as strong as it was on Sunday. The upper flow, while still from the NE, will also be much weaker. There will be some morning canyon winds but they will not be advisory levels. The weaker offshore flow will allow for an earlier and stronger sea breeze and this along with less compressional heat will create a 5 to 10 degree cooling trend across the csts and vlys. Further inland there may be a few degrees of warming as the hgts rise a few decameters.
The offshore flow will turn onshore on Tuesday. This could create some coastal low clouds in the morning, but feel like the low atmosphere will be too dry for stratus formation. There will be a noticeable 3 to 6 degrees of cooling across the board with max temps ending up in the 70s across the csts/vlys, which is still 3 to 6 degrees above normal.
Offshore flow from the north will develop Wednesday morning and the onshore push from the west will weaken. At the same time a ridge will push in from SW and hgts will rise to 586 dam. 3 to 6 degrees of warming will push most vly highs into the lower 80s.
The ridge intensifies next Thursday and there should be weak offshore flow. This will bring 4 to 6 degrees of warming to the csts and vlys pushing vly temps into the mid and upper 80s making it the warmest day of the next 7.
06/1712z.
At 16Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor an inversion.
For 18Z TAF Package, high confidence in CAVU conditions for all sites. Moderate confidence in wind forecast for KCMA, OXR, KBUR, and KVNY.
Light to occasionally moderate LLWS and turbulence is likely over and near mountainous terrain across Los Angeles and Ventura Counties. Most likely 07/06Z to 07/18Z.
KLAX, Moderate confidence in TAF. CAVU conditions are expected. There is a 30% chance of N-NE cross winds reaching 20 kts after 07/14Z. Easterly wind component should remain below 8 kts thru 07/18Z. Then, a 30% chance thereafter.
KBUR, High confidence in CAVU conditions through the period. Moderate confidence in wind forecast. Light to occasionally moderate turbulence will be possible on approach and departure.
06/731 AM.
For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through this evening, high confidence in combination of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas. For Saturday, there is a 60-70% chance of SCA level northeast winds across PZZ676 with high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels for PZZ670/673. For Sunday, moderate chance of SCA winds south of Point Conception in the evening. For Monday and Tuesday, high confidence in a combination of SCA level winds and seas with a 30-40% chance of GALE force winds.
For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Sunday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. For Monday and Tuesday, there is a 30-50% chance of a combination of SCA level winds and seas.
For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Sunday, high confidence in SCA level northeast winds from Ventura south to Santa Monica, as well as the San Pedro Channel, during the late night through early afternoon hours while winds and seas remain near or below SCA levels elsewhere. Additionally, there is a 20-30% chance of GALE FORCE winds from Point Mugu to Malibu late tonight through Saturday morning. For Monday through Tuesday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels.
High confidence in ENE winds of 10-15 kts impacting Avalon Harbor this morning and Saturday morning with 20% chance of winds reaching 25 kts.
Ca, Wind Advisory remains in effect until 3 PM PST Saturday for zones 88-354-355-358-362-369>374-376>378. (See LAXNPWLOX). High Wind Warning remains in effect until 3 PM PST Saturday for zones 375-379-380. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect until 2 PM PST this afternoon for zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Saturday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PST this evening for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
