27/821 AM.
Marine layer stratus with patchy fog will reoccur each night to morning period through late this coming week. Expect below normal temperatures through late next week, trending toward normal by next weekend. Winds will remain elevated throughout the period across the Antelope Valley and Foothills, but remain fairly mild elsewhere.
(Sat-Tue), 27/817 PM.
***UPDATE***
Overall, a rather quiet evening across the area. Latest satellite and surface observations indicate mostly clear skies with just some very patchy stratus floating over the area. As for winds, west to northwest winds, gusting 35-50 MPH, are observed across the Antelope Valley (and the adjacent foothills) as well as western half of the Santa Ynez Range.
Forecast-wise, no major changes to previous thinking for the short term. Through Sunday, an upper level trough will remain, draped over the area, then a low will drop along the CA coast Monday then will move across the area Monday night and Tuesday. On Monday a couple of upper lows will move across the West Coast and into the Great Basin. At the surface, moderate to strong onshore flow to the east will persist with weakening northerly offshore flow.
Main forecast issue in the short term will be the winds. Current gusty west to northwest winds will continue through this evening, then gradually diminish tonight. So, current WIND ADVISORIES look to be valid at this time and will continue until their expiration early Sunday morning. For the remainder of Sunday and continuing through Tuesday, there will be gusty southwesterly winds across the Antelope Valley, but any advisory level winds will remain localized.
Otherwise, there will continue to be a deep marine layer through Tuesday with temperatures remaining at or slightly below seasonal normals.
(Wed-Sat), 27/1224 PM.
After several days of stable temperatures, ensembles indicate a change in the upper-level pattern by Friday/Saturday of next week when high pressure takes control of our weather pattern. This marks a transition to a gradual warming trend beginning Thursday and near-normal to slightly above normal temperatures during the holiday weekend. There is variation amongst ensembles as to the strength of high pressure, which results in some uncertainty with regard to how warm our valleys will get during the holiday. The National Blend of Models indicates the most widespread high temperatures on July 4th being the upper 70s and 80s with fewer valley areas warming into the 90s.
27/2223z.
At 2100Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 4200 ft deep. The top of the inversion was at 5500 feet with a temperature of 14 degrees Celsius.
For 00Z TAF package, high confidence in forecasts for KWJF and KPMD.
For all other sites, moderate confidence in 00Z TAFs as timing of flight category changes could be +/- 3 hours of current forecasts.
For KSBA, there is a 30-40% chance of MVFR CIGs 09Z-18Z.
KLAX, Moderate confidence in 00Z TAF. Timing of flight category changes could be +/- 3 hours of current forecasts. In the 12Z-16Z time frame, there is a 50% chance of southeasterly winds around 7 knots.
KBUR, Moderate confidence in 00Z TAF. Timing of flight category changes could be +/- 3 hours of current forecasts.
27/729 PM.
High confidence in Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds for the outer waters from the Central Coast through San Nicolas Island through Sunday or Monday, with some improvement after. Local Gale force wind gusts will be possible during the late afternoon/early evening hours through Sunday. The nearshore waters in the SB Channel and along the Central Coast will likely see SCA winds each afternoon and evening.
High confidence in SCA winds over the western Santa Barbara Channel through at least midnight, with another good chance Sunday late afternoon through the evening and possibly through late Sunday night. The rest of the waters will likely stay under SCA.
All waters will see short-period choppy seas into early next week. Seas across the outer waters will near SCA levels Sunday into Monday evening.
Ca, Wind Advisory remains in effect until 6 AM PDT Sunday for zones 349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory remains in effect until 5 AM PDT Sunday for zones 381-383. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Sunday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM Sunday to 3 AM PDT Monday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 AM PDT Monday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
