23/153 AM.
A relatively quiet Friday will transition into a weak Santa Ana Wind event this weekend, bringing drier conditions and warmer temperatures to the region into next week.
(tdy-Sun), 23/153 AM.
The main upper level low has weakened and moved over into the Great Basin. A progressive shortwave has phased with another main trough in the PACNW resulting in an elongated piece of vorticity. This will move south and deepen over Socal. With this feature, we can expect weak northerly flow, ascent, and enough orographic lifting to generate some showers tomorrow afternoon & early evening over interior Ventura and San Gabriels mountains. Any shower that develops will likely dissipate as it moves south towards the LA Basin due to downsloping. However, these showers could hang together long enough to see a few raindrops over San Fernando and San Gabriel Valleys. Rain Chances: 10-25% highest over mtns.
By Saturday, Sunny skies should prevail. Although weak, offshore flow should peak in the morning indicated by LAX-DAG/SMX-BFL (east) -2 mb and LAX-BFL -4 mb (north) resulting in sub-advisory winds confined to typical Santa Ana wind corridor. Strongest across the San Gabriels topping out 35-40 mph in favored terrain such as ridgetops. 500mb heights should rise some and pressure gradients should climb back to the neutral territory on Sunday resulting in light winds and a few degrees of warming away from the coast. Temperatures should be near normal by this point. A shallow marine layer may return to Central coast.
(Mon-Thu), 23/153 AM.
A weak Santa Ana event will continue into next week, allowing for warmer (near normal high temps) and drier conditions to prevail. These winds will likely stay confined to the mountains and some valleys struggling to reach advisory levels even in favored spots such as Santa Susana and San Gabriels mtns (30% chance). By Wed or Thurs, onshore flow is likely to return. There are some model solutions indicating a return of wet weather just after Halloween.
23/1116z.
At 0926Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor an inversion.
Overall, moderate confidence in 12Z TAF Package. Isolated showers roughly through 23/15Z for KSMX. Mainly VFR CIGs 030-050 with occasional (likely brief) MVFR CIGs 015-030. After 24/00Z, VFR CIGs should scatter out.
KLAX, Moderate confidence in 12Z TAF. SCT-BKN 035-060 with occasional (likely brief) MVFR CIGs 020-030 through 24/00Z. Good confidence that any east wind component remains below 8 kt.
KBUR, Moderate confidence in 12Z TAF. SCT-BKN 035-060 with occasional (likely brief) MVFR CIGs 020-030 through 24/00Z. Slight chance for a light shower this afternoon into early evening - with a very low chance of a lightning strike (5%). No wind issues expected.
23/153 AM.
For the Outer Waters, high confidence in current forecast. Gusty Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds are likely through Friday night. For Saturday through Monday, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels, then there is a 30-40 percent chance of SCA conds near and SW of Point Conception (PZZ673-676) Monday night through Tuesday night.
For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. There is a 20-30% chance of SCA level winds at times through Friday evening. Otherwise, winds and seas should remain below SCA levels through Tuesday night, but with a 30% chance of SCA conds Monday night and Tuesday night.
For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate confidence in current forecast. Through Tuesday night, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels for most areas. The only exceptions will be the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel with a 40-50% chance of SCA level winds late Friday afternoon and evening. As winds shift to northeast, there is a 40% chance of SCA level wind gusts nearshore from Ventura to Santa Monica late Friday night through Saturday morning.
Isolated showers will linger across the coastal waters south of Pt Conception through Friday morning or early afternoon. Very low chance of a lightning strike (5% chance).
Ca, NONE. PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect from 2 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Saturday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Saturday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
