25/1217 AM.
Dry conditions are expected through at least Friday with above normal temperatures and gusty Santa Ana winds at times from Tuesday through Thursday. A cooling trend will develop next weekend with areas of gusty north winds.
(Tue-Fri), 25/225 PM.
Not much going on in the short term. No advisories are anticipated through the period.
At the upper levels, weak ridging will continue over the area with hgts ranging from 580 to 582 dam. At the sfc offshore flow will continue through Thursday, peaking Wednesday.
Stronger offshore flow will keep the coasts and vlys clear Wednesday, but the interior of SLO county may well be cloudy again as the offshore flow pushes low clouds into the area from the San Joaquin Vly. Thanksgiving looks cloudy as a grip of mid and high level clouds move overhead.
As for winds, there is no upper of thermal support so any winds will have to totally rely on the sfc gradients. There will be some gusty north winds today but with only isolated advisory level gust. The winds will turn NE Wednesday morning and a weak Santa Ana wind event will ensue. The offshore gradients will both be around 5 mb. Again, with no upper support it is unlikely that there will be a need for advisories. Weakening offshore flow on Thanksgiving will likely only produce 15 to 25 mph canyon winds in the morning.
Ridging aloft and offshore flow peak Wednesday and this should lead to 2 to 4 degrees of warming. This will push most max temps into the mid 70s to lower 80s. The decrease in offshore flow on Thursday along with lowering hgts and the increase in cloud cover will result in 2 to 4 locally 6 degrees of cooling. Despite the cooling most max temps will end up 2 to 4 degrees above normal. Overnight lows will gradually increase through Thursday or Friday, especially after tonight when patchy frost will be possible once again for interior areas.
Weak troffing sets up over the area on Friday. The high clouds will move off to the east and it will be a mostly sunny day. The offshore flow weakens to near neutral and this will bring 3 to 6 degrees of cooling to the csts and vlys despite the added sunshine. The added sunshine will bring several degrees of warming to interior areas.
(Sat-Tue), 25/226 PM.
Well below normal confidence in the entire extended period and beyond as guidance struggles with the timing and evolution of a trough of two digging into the West Coast. The initial trough this weekend has trended towards an inside slider with only a 20 percent chance of showers (leaving an 80 percent that it will be dry) focused across Los Angeles County. Seasonably cool conditions with breezy north to northeast winds will likely prevail this weekend into early next week.
Active, unsettled weather may return for the middle of next week, although forecast confidence is very low for this time frame with a wide range of possible outcomes; from mostly dry conditions to a moderate or strong storm.
26/0242z.
Around 2224Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer. The top of the weak sfc- based inversion was at 1800 ft with a temperature of 20 C.
High confidence in VFR conds for all sites except KPRB and KLGB where cigs may develop in the early morning hours. Timing of cigs at KPRB may be off +/- 2 hours, and minimum flight cat off by 1 cat. For LA county coastal sites, less than 10% chance for VLIFR- LIFR conds from 07Z-17Z. Intermitent periods of 3-5SM vsbys are also possible at coastal and valley site.
KLAX, High confidence in VFR TAF. Less than 10% chance for OVC002-004 and vsbys 1/2SM-2SM vsbys 07Z-17Z. Good confidence that any east wind component will be under 8kt.
KBUR, High confidence in TAF. East to northeast winds are possible from 03Z-18Z, but should generally remain below 12 kt.
25/1230 PM.
Conditions will continue to improve well below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) criteria through tonight, and will remain relatively mild through Thanksgiving. However, there is a moderate chance of north-northeast winds gusting 20-30 knots nearshore from Ventura to Santa Monica tonight through Thursday morning, with strongest winds expected tonight into Wednesday afternoon. Localized wind gusts to 25 knots are possible nearshore along the Central coast, with best chances from Cayucos south to Morro Bay each night through morning this week.
Winds and seas will likely (60% chance) increase to SCA levels once again across the Outer Waters as early as Thursday night or Friday. Nearshore along the Central Coast and across the Santa Barbara Channel, winds will increase Saturday afternoon and evening, but chances for widespread SCA conditions are low.
There is quite a bit of uncertainty for this weekend, but there is a moderate to high chance of widespread SCA conditions, including nearshore. Seas will likely increase to around 10 to 12 feet across the outer waters, and 4 to 6 feet inside the Southern California Bight. There is a low chance of widespread Gale Force Winds this weekend.
Ca, NONE. PZ, NONE.
