24/805 AM.
Very hot conditions will dominate the week, with a high risk for heat illness. Patchy night through morning low clouds and locally dense fog will be confined to coastal areas, mainly north of Point Conception.
(tdy-Thu), 24/203 PM.
All systems go for the heat this week, especially south of Pt Conception. Very little temperature change today, and in fact some areas are running a degree or two cooler than yesterday. However, additional warming is expected Tuesday and Wednesday as the upper high builds and onshore flow weakens. Most areas Tuesday will warm at least a couple degrees above today and as much as 5 degrees. Another factor with this heat wave is the overnight lows which will be warming up through the week, into the low to mid 70s in some areas, which will limit the amount of night time cooling.
For the Central Coast, temperatures will be warming up as well, but delayed by a day or two. There is about a 40% chance of highs in the mid to upper 90s in San Luis Obispo by Wednesday and similar odds for Santa Maria to reach 90. And for inland SLO County highs between 103 and 108 are expected.
The heat wave will peak Wednesday and Thursday, then a slow cool down will begin.
(Fri-Mon), 24/200 PM.
Increasing northerly flow over the Santa Ynez range is expected later in the week with the potential for very hot sundowners across southern SBA county. A decent N to S gradient will set up over the county each evening and gusty north canyon winds will develop. These hot winds could drive max temps into the 100-105 degree range and could also keep temperatures in the 80s until almost dawn.
Most of the ensemble models are favoring a few degrees of cooling each day from Friday to next Monday, with highs either at or slightly above normal.
24/1650z.
At 1600Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 700 feet deep. The top of the inversion was at 2500 feet with a temperature of 27 degrees Celsius.
For 18Z TAF package:
- High confidence in KPRB, KBUR, KVNY, KPMD, KWJF and KCMA.
- For KSMX and KSBP, timing of flight category changes could be +/- 2 hours of current forecasts with a 30% chance that CIG and VSBY restrictions do not develop.
- For KLAX, KSMO and KLGB, there is a 30% chance of IFR/LIFR CIGs and VSBYs 09Z-17Z.
KLAX, Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. There is a 50% chance that VFR conditions will prevail through the period. There is a 20-30% chance of IFR/LIFR conditions 09Z-17Z. No significant easterly wind component is expected.
KBUR, High confidence in 18Z TAF with VFR conditions through the period.
24/1250 PM.
For the Outer Waters, high confidence in current forecast. Through Tuesday morning, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds will continue across PZZ673/676. From Tuesday afternoon through Saturday, SCA level winds are expected across all of the Outer Waters with seas approaching SCA levels (8-10 feet).
For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Tuesday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. For Wednesday through Saturday, there is a 60-80% chance of SCA level winds in the afternoon and evening hours. Additionally, seas will approach SCA levels by Thursday/Friday.
For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. For a majority of the southern Inner Waters, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels through Saturday. The only exception will be the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel where there is a 30-40% chance of SCA level winds late this afternoon and evening, then a 60-80% chance of SCA level winds Tuesday through Saturday, mainly in the late afternoon and evening hours.
Ca, Heat Advisory in effect until 10 AM PDT Tuesday for zones 38-87-88-349>358-362-366>376-378>380-548. (See LAXNPWLOX). Extreme Heat Warning in effect from 10 AM Tuesday to 8 PM PDT Friday for zones 38-87-88-349>358-362-366>376-378>383-548. (See LAXNPWLOX). Heat Advisory in effect from 10 AM Wednesday to 8 PM PDT Thursday for zones 341-347-348. (See LAXNPWLOX). Heat Advisory in effect from 10 AM Tuesday to 8 PM PDT Friday for zones 342>345. (See LAXNPWLOX). Red Flag Warning in effect from 10 AM Tuesday to 3 PM PDT Friday for zones 345-353-375>380. (See LAXRFWLOX). PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM Tuesday to 3 PM PDT Wednesday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT Wednesday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
