26/230 AM.
Dry and warm conditions will continue through the first half of this week. Cooler conditions will follow, with a growing potential for a moderate to strong storm system towards next weekend.
(tdy-Wed), 26/230 AM.
A series of upper lows affecting the PACNW will bring lowering hgts and W to SW flow over Srn CA. Hgts will fall from 580 dam to 576 dam. At the sfc near neutral gradients will see a slow onshore trend esp to the east.
The only low clouds this morning will be over the Central Coast accompanied by some dense fog. Most areas will see 2 to 4 degrees of cooling, which will push max temps 2 to 4 degrees blo normal.
Not much change to the benign weather on Tuesday. Skies south of Pt Conception should remain free of low clouds, but there is about a 30 percent chc that the LA coasts will see low clouds at dawn. A few more degrees of cooling due to hgt falls will bring max temps across the csts/vlys to the 70s.
The increase in onshore flow, the increase in cyclonic turning aloft and the lowering hgts will all join up to bring an extensive morning low cloud pattern to all coasts and most vlys on Wednesday. The low clouds will clear slowly and some beaches may not change at all. In addition there will be enough high clouds in the upper flow to make the skies partly cloudy across the area in the afternoon. The marine layer, onshore flow and even lower hgts will bring additional 1 to 3 degrees of cooling to all areas.
(Thu-Sun), 26/230 AM.
On Thursday, slightly cyclonic SW flow develops over Srn CA as another upper low spins out of British Columbia. It will be a mostly cloudy day due to a combination of low mid and high clouds. Due to the extensive cloud cover max temps will flatten out and almost all areas save for the mid and upper mtn elevations will see max temps in the upper 60s or lower 70s.
On Friday the flow turns more to the SW and the cyclonic turning sharpens. The day will most likely resemble Thursday will cloudy skies and cooler than normal temps (4 to 8 locally 12 degrees under normal). But there will be a 10 to 20 percent chc of brief and light shower or two.
All eyes on the next storm system, which unfortunately, remains a low confidence forecast. One problem comes from timing and placement of a moisture plume moving in from the SW and the other is the evolution of the upper low over WA and OR. Until the mdls settle down and begin to converge on a solution the forecast will have to be broad brushed. There is very high confidence that it will rain during the weekend, but low confidence on onset timing and peak timing. Rainfall amounts are also a low confidence prediction. The current estimate calls for most areas south of Pt Conception to recieve about an inch with higher amounts in the foothills and coastal slopes. Most mdls keep most of the plume to the south of Pt Conception so areas north of there will probably see half that amount. There is a 20 to 30 percent chc that rainfall totals will be double that amount. Stay tuned for the latest details on this developing storm system.
Snow levels will generally be high, although light snow may occur at high elevations on the backside of the storm.
Max temps will only be in the mid to upper 60s through the weekend.
An active weather pattern may continue behind next weekend, with a 50-60 percent chance of above normal precipitation into the following week.
26/1712z.
At 16Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer or inversion.
For the 00Z TAF package, high confidence in CAVU TAFs for KSBA, KOXR, KCMA, KBUR, KVNY, KPMD and KWJF.
For KSBP there is a 30% chance of LIFR/VLIFR conds, and a 30-40 percent chance that LIFR/VLIFR conds do not affect KSMX or KPRB. For KLAX, KLGB and KSMO, there is a 10-20% chance of LIFR/VLIFR conditions 08Z-16Z.
KLAX, High confidence in TAF. There is only a 20% chance of 2SM BR OVC004 conditions 12Z-17Z. No significant easterly wind component is expected.
KBUR, High confidence in CAVU TAF.
26/1026 AM.
For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. This afternoon through Wednesday, high confidence in winds increasing to SCA levels. On Thursday and Friday, there is a 50-60% chance of SCA level winds continuing.
For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. For this afternoon and evening, there is a 60-80% chance of SCA level winds. For Tuesday through Friday, there is a 30-50% chance of SCA level winds each afternoon and evening.
For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Through Friday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels for most of the southern Inner Waters. The only exception will be the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel with a 50-60% chance of SCA level winds in the late afternoon and evening hours Monday and Tuesday, then again on Friday.
Dense fog is likely to form over portions of the coastal waters over the next 48 hours, but low confidence on exactly when and where.
A significant storm system will impact the area sometime in the late Friday through early next week timeframe. There is a wide range of outcomes, but there is at least a low threat of a 12-24 hour period of strong winds and step seas.
Ca, Coastal Flood Advisory in effect until 1 PM PDT Thursday for zones 87-340-346-349-350-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Tuesday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Wednesday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
