22/106 PM.
Mostly clear skies with warming temperatures are expected through Friday. Cooler over the weekend with a chance of light rain at times. Another weak storm may bring light rain to the area around Tuesday.
(Wed-Sat), 22/851 PM.
***UPDATE***
Aside from a few areas of low clouds and fog this morning, today was mostly sunny with temperatures trending about 2 to 8 degrees below normal. Northwesterly winds were quite strong today over the coastal waters and near the coasts, with gusts of 20 to 30 mph common. Some areas remain quite windy, and northerly sundowner winds have developed over the Santa Ynez Range this evening with localized wind gusts to 45-50 mph. Widespread advisory levels are not anticipated. Breezy north to northwest winds are also affecting portions of the Antelope Valley and I-5 Corridor, with gusts from around 20 to 35 mph. Breezy north to northwest winds will redevelop Thursday afternoon along the Central Coast to the mountains of Santa Barbara County and near the I-5 Corridor. Expecting marine layer clouds and fog to expand Thursday night, before clouds increase as the next low pressure system approaches. Current forecast looks on track with no significant changes needed.
***From Previous Discussion***
Post-frontal west to northwest winds will be the primary weather concern through this evening with wind speeds getting close to, but likely falling just short of wind advisory levels. Strongest winds will be near the coast and over the adjacent coastal waters, the latter with small craft advisories in effect. Winds will subside this evening at least near the coast, though gusty mountain winds are likely through Thursday morning.
Weak high pressure aloft will develop over the area Thursday leading to 3-6 degrees of warming (mostly inland) and generally less wind, though there will be the typical onshore afternoon breezes, especially near the coast. There may be a few patches of morning stratus around but not lasting long.
A weak trough will develop just west of California Friday and move onshore Saturday. This will start a cooling trend that will carry through the weekend. In addition, roughly 60-80 percent of the ensembles currently show at least some rain for all southwest California areas except possibly the desert, though the timing is still somewhat in question. Amounts are expected to be a quarter inch or less, and in many areas probably a tenth of an inch or less, especially Ventura/LA Counties. Gusty west winds expected Saturday evening. Could be approaching wind advisory levels in the Antelope Valley.
(Sun-Wed), 22/207 PM.
Sunday is expected to be dry, though there are a few ensemble solutions that have a later arrival of the Saturday storm, resulting in some carry over showers into Sunday morning. Otherwise, generally dry and cool with clearing skies.
Dry and a little warmer Monday. Then Tuesday there is another weak storm expected to move into southwest California with similar or even lighter rain amounts than over the weekend. Some gusty west to northwest post-frontal winds will develop Wednesday, otherwise dry weather expected the rest of next week with slowly warming temperatures.
23/0234z.
At 0033Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor marine inversion.
Overall, high confidence in 00Z TAF package for most sites. Moderate confidence in KPRB and KSMX. At KPRB, there is a 20% chance that CIG/VSBY restrictions do not develop overnight. At KSMX, there is a 30% chance of CIG/VSBY restrictions in the 05Z-12Z time frame.
KLAX, High confidence in 00Z TAF. East winds are possible from 11 to 17Z, but easterly wind component should be 5kt or less.
KBUR, High confidence in 00Z TAF.
22/840 PM.
For the Outer Waters, high confidence in current forecast. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels will continue through Friday evening, however winds may drop below advisory levels at times, mainly north of Point Conception overnight tonight and during the late morning hours. For Saturday through Monday, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels.
For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Through Friday, there is a 50-60% chance of SCA level northwest winds during the afternoon and evening hours. For Saturday through Monday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels.
For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. High confidence in winds diminishing below advisory levels by late tonight. For Thursday through Friday, there is a 60-80% chance of SCA level winds across the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel with high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels elsewhere. For Saturday through Monday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels across all of the southern Inner Waters.
Ca, NONE. PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Thursday for zones 645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Thursday for zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT Thursday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
