04/125 AM.
Significant warming is expected through Sunday as gusty Santa Ana winds continue over Los Angeles and Ventura Counties. Moderate to locally strong winds will continue this morning, then weaken in the afternoon and overnight. A cooling trend will begin Monday with temperatures back to near normal around mid week. There is a chance of rain this coming Wednesday night into Thursday.
(tdy-Mon), 04/125 AM.
Gusty Santa Ana winds will continue through this morning with speeds generally 25 to 35 mph with gusts to 50 mph, a touch weaker than yesterday. Isolated gusts to 60 mph will be possible in the most favored mountain locations. The winds will begin to decrease some this afternoon through the early evening, then decrease more substantially in the late evening into Sunday morning. Models depict a good onshore push, initially along the coast by around 11 AM-noon, then progressing inland through the remainder of the afternoon.
As for temperatures, the hottest day of the short term will be today, under weakening cold air advection and high pressure building aloft. Expect highs in the 80s from the coast through all of the valleys, and around 80 degrees over the far interior. On Sunday the sea breeze should result in several degrees of cooling along the coast and in the coastal valleys, while further inland the interior valleys and deserts may see a degree or two of warming.
Looking into Monday, the cooling trend that began on Sunday will continue, although highs will still be a few degrees above seasonal normals. Models are indicating low clouds and fog over the coastal areas by Monday morning.
(Tue-Fri), 04/125 AM.
After the slight cool down early in the week, temperatures are expected to level off Tuesday and Wednesday at around 4-8 degrees above normal. Skies will be mostly clear, except light to moderate onshore flow will create areas of low clouds and fog near the coast each night to morning period.
Models continue to indicate at least a 60% chance of rain area- wide late Wednesday night into Thursday. A majority of the solutions are showing around one third to half an inch of rain over Ventura and LA Counties, with totals decreasing further north over Santa Barbara County (up to 0.25 inch) and San Luis Obispo County (0.15 inch or less). There are some models delaying the rain until Friday or Saturday, but lower confidence in these solutions. Otherwise, expect cooler daytime temperatures in the 70s Thursday through Saturday.
04/1222z.
At 1040Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer. There was a surface based inversion with a top of 1400 feet at 23 C.
High confidence in TAFs. Timing of wind changes could be off by up to +/- 2 hours. Light to moderate LLWS and turbulence will be likely across the foothills and mountains.
For KLGB, low clouds and dense fog are nearby the terminal as of 12Z Sat. These cigs should clear by 13/14Z, but there is a 20% that they linger into 16Z.
KLAX, High confidence in TAF. There is a 10% chance of an easterly wind component near 8 knots 13Z-17Z Saturday.
KBUR, High confidence in TAF. Ocnl light LLWS and turbulence around the airfield and mountains through 19Z.
04/225 AM.
For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Through Sunday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels. For Monday and Tuesday, there is a 60-70% chance of SCA level winds across all the Outer Waters. On Wednesday, there is a 60-70% chance of SCA level winds across PZZ673/676, but only a 20-30% chance of SCA level winds across PZZ670.
For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Through Sunday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. For Monday through Wednesday, there is a 50-60% chance of SCA level winds in the afternoon and evening hours.
For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate confidence in current forecast. Through this morning, there is a 60-80% chance of SCA level northeast winds from Ventura southward to Santa Monica, with a 30% chance of Gale Force gusts to 35 kt nearshore between Point Mugu to Ventura. There is also a 50-60% chance of SCA winds across the San Pedro Channel. High confidence in winds diminishing below advisory levels this afternoon and remaining below SCA levels through Sunday, along with sub-advisory seas. For Monday through Wednesday, there is a 40-60% chance of SCA level winds, especially on Tuesday and Wednesday. The stronger winds are expected to be across the western sections of the southern Inner Waters.
Ca, Wind Advisory remains in effect until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for zones 88-354-355-358-371-372-374-380. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for zones 369-375-379. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
