30/729 PM.
Temperatures will become dangerously hot in many areas Friday through this weekend, as the next heat wave arrives. Some cooling is expected next week, though temperatures will remain above normal. Dangerous surf conditions are expected at area beaches this week into this weekend, as a result of swells from a distant tropical cyclone located west of Mexico.
(Thu-Sun), 30/802 PM.
***UPDATE***
It was a sunny day today with high temperatures in the 70s at the beaches, 80s to high 90s away from the coast, and low 100s in the warmest valleys/locations. Marine layer clouds have already started pushing into the Ventura and L.A. County Coasts, and are expected to expand into the remainder of the coasts through the night. Temperatures will increase by a few degrees tomorrow thanks to increasing 500 mb heights and decreasing onshore flow, bringing temperatures up to 6 to 12 degrees above normal for this time of year. Widespread Extreme Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories are in effect starting tomorrow/Friday morning into Sunday evening.
As for winds, North to Northwest Sundowner winds with local gusts to 45 mph are possible across Southwest Santa Barbara County this evening, but will likely be a little bit stronger with a 40% chance of an advisory needed tomorrow/Friday evening. Besides some changes to the sky coverage for this evening, the forecast looks to be in shape and no other updates were needed this evening.
***From Previous Discussion***
Overall the forecast remains largely unchanged as high pressure is expected to push in from the east over the next few days. The influence of the marine layer will continue decreasing through the remainder of this week, as high pressure builds over the next couple days. There may, however, be some areas of dense morning fog near the coast Friday morning. After that it will be all about the heat as a nearly 600dam high moves over the area. Valleys and interior areas will see highs well over 100 Friday and Saturday while intermediate areas between the coast and the valleys (including Downtown LA) will be in the upper 80s to mid 90s. Current forecast highs are mostly within a degree or two of daily records with Saturday having the the highest chance for that. In addition to the traditional daytime heat threat, overnight lows will remain well above normal in response to the very warm ocean temperatures, so there won't be as much relief at night as we are accustomed to.
A slow cooling trend will begin on Sunday, however temperatures will remain above normal and be hazardous. Also of note, gusty Sundowner winds may bring local gusts to advisory levels across southwest Santa Barbara County this weekend -- 40% chance.
A large south swell from Tropical Cyclone Genevieve will further enhance large wave and potentially deadly rip currents for some area beaches.
(Mon-Thu), 30/229 PM.
The slow cooling trend will continue into next week, though temperatures will still be 5-10 degrees above normal and increasing moisture aloft will limit overnight cooling and keep humidities higher than normal. And in addition, high pressure aloft will continue to dominate the weather pattern along the West Coast all of next week, meaning highs will remain above normal for the foreseeable future. Heat hazards may continue into next week.
31/0239z.
At 0036Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 900 feet deep. The top of the inversion was 2900 feet with a temp of 28 degrees Celsius.
High confidence in VFR TAFs for KPRB, KBUR, KVNY, KPMD, KWJF. 10% chance for VLIFR-LIFR conds at KBUR/KVNY 10Z-16Z.
Low confidence in TAFs for KSBP and KSMX. 30% chance for VFR conds to prevail, but if cigs arrive, 40% chance for VLIFR conds also due to dense fog.
Moderate confidence in remaining TAFs, higher for LA County sites. Timing of flight cat changes may be off +/- 2 hours and flight cats may be off by 1 cat, but good confidence in low clouds overnight.
KLAX, Moderate confidence in TAF. Timing of flight cat changes may be off +/- 2 hours from TAF, and lowest cigs may be off +/- 200 feet. No significant east wind component expected.
KBUR, High confidence in VFR TAF. There is a 10% chance for VLIFR to LIFR conds 10Z-16Z.
30/727 PM.
For the Outer Waters, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds and seas will occur through the remainder of this week into this weekend, before subsiding early next week. Winds will generally peak at around 30 knots but occasional gusts to 35 knots will be possible, mainly during the evening hours.
For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, there is an 80% chance for SCA winds each afternoon and evening through Saturday. For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, there is a 40% chance of SCA winds each afternoon and evening through this weekend over the western one-third of the Santa Barbara Channel.
Seas of 8-12 feet will impact the outer waters into this weekend, due to a long-period southerly swell from a distant tropical cyclone, combining with shorter-period northwesterly swell/wind- waves caused by the moderate to locally strong NW winds. As a result, steep, hazardous seas will be common, especially over the outer waters, extending to nearshore waters off the Central Coast.
30/728 PM.
Distant Tropical Cyclone Genevieve is generating long period S-SE swells that will affect the beaches for the remainder of this week into this weekend. A High Surf Advisory is in effect for the south facing beaches of LA and Ventura Counties through Saturday afternoon. Very strong, severe rip currents have been reported from some area beaches, with a risk of strong long-shore currents and sneaker waves. Use extra caution if you are at the beach, and be sure to ask lifeguards if and where it is safe to swim.
Please reference the Coastal Hazard Message for details on High Surf and Coastal Flood Advisories, as well as Beach Hazards Statements. Dangerous rip currents will be of particular concern this weekend.
Ca, Extreme Heat Warning in effect from 10 AM Friday to 8 PM PDT Sunday for zones 38-88-343>345-351>353-355>358-368>376-378-379-548. (See LAXNPWLOX). Coastal Flood Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Saturday for zones 87-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). High Surf Advisory in effect until 5 PM PDT Saturday for zones 87-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Saturday afternoon for zones 340-346-349-350-356. (See LAXCFWLOX). Heat Advisory in effect from 10 AM Friday to 8 PM PDT Sunday for zones 341-342-347>350-354-362-366-367-377. (See LAXNPWLOX). Heat Advisory in effect until 10 AM PDT Friday for zones 378-379. (See LAXNPWLOX). Heat Advisory in effect until 8 PM PDT Sunday for zone 380. (See LAXNPWLOX). Extreme Heat Warning in effect until 8 PM PDT Sunday for zones 381>383. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 5 AM PDT Monday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
