26/1152 PM.
Hotter than normal conditions will continue for the foreseeable future. Slight cooling is possible Monday through Thursday, with heat increasing again Friday through Sunday. The hot and humid conditions during the day and night will bring elevated risks of heat-related illness.
(tdy-Wed), 27/129 AM.
Pretty dull (but warm) weather on tap for the short term. The upper level pattern will not change much over the next 72 hours with a powerful 597 dam upper high centered over the TX and OK panhandles. At the sfc there will be mdt-stg (strongest in the late afternoon) onshore flow to the east. The N/S gradient will vary from weak offshore in the morning to weak onshore in the afternoon.
The morning low cloud pattern will not change much at all. The low clouds will be likely across the LA csts and the western SBA cst. There will also be a 30-40 percent chc of low clouds reaching the VTA csts as well as the SLO cst.
There will be another round of gusty Sundowner winds across southwest Santa Barbara County the winds look a little weaker than last evenings and will likely come in just under advisory levels.
Today will be the last day of the current heat advisory as the combination of 95 to 101 degree temperatures and higher than normal humidity will continue the hazardous heat levels. There will be a a degree or two of cooling for most areas Tuesday and Wednesday as hgts fall a little. More importantly drier air will sweep in from the NW (PWATs fall from 1.07 to .70) and this will make the lower temps feel even better. That said the higher than normal sea sfc temps will keep humidities a little above normal.
(Thu-Sun), 27/252 AM.
On Thursday the upper high begins to migrate back to the west. It will eventually sit atop of AZ. The high will also strengthen to 600 dam. Hgts over Srn CA will rise to 596 dam on Thursday and then peak at 598 dam on Fri and Sat. 598 dam would match the highest hgt recorded in July during the period 1999-2025. There will not be much change in the sfc pressure and onshore flow will continue through the period save for very weak offshore flow from the north around sunrise.
1 to 2 degrees of warming Thursday will be followed by 3 to 6 locally 8 degrees on Friday. Most areas will see another 2 or 3 degrees of warming Saturday. Sunday's temps will be similar to Saturday's. By Saturday the vlys max temps will reach 100 to 110 degrees while the lower mtn elevations and far interior sections will see max temps from 105 to 112 degrees. Even the normal cool beaches will be in the 80s. All max temps will be 10 to 15 degrees above early August normals.
Its hard to imagine a scenario where there will not be a plethora of heat advisories/warnings in place for Friday and the weekend. The chc for heat products is over 90 percent.
Also have to keep a close eye on rapidly strengthening Hurricane Genevieve west of Mexico. While the projected path keeps it well south and west of the border due to strong anticyclonic flow aloft, it's likely to create another surge of dangerous south swells, perhaps as early as later this week.
27/0953z.
At 0822Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 800 ft deep. The top of the inversion was near 2400 ft with a temperature of 29 Celsius.
High confidence in TAFs for KBUR KVNY KPMD KWJF and KPRB.
Moderate confidence in TAFs for KLGB, KLAX and KSMX where the arrival and departure times of CIGs could be off by +/- 2 hours.
Fair confidence in TAFs for KSBA and KCMA with only a 15 percent chc of IFR cigs 13Z-16Z.
Moderate confidence in TAFs for KSBP, KOXR and KSMO with a 30 percent chc of IFR/LIFR cig/vis 12Z-16Z.
KLAX, Moderate confidence in TAF. Cigs could arrive as late as 14Z and VFR conds could arrive as late as 1730Z. High confidence in any east winds staying under 6 knots.
KBUR, High confidence in CAVU TAF.
27/209 AM.
For the outer waters, moderate to high confidence in the current forecast. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds are expected most of the time through Thursday night. Periods of gales are possible through much of the week. A GALE WARNING has been issued for the two northern outer zones (PZZ670-PZZ673) from late this afternoon through late tonight. After a lull Tuesday morning, additional gales are possible Tuesday night. SCA level steep and choppy seas are also expected due to the persistent, moderate to strong winds.
For the inner waters north of Point Sal, generally high confidence in the current forecast. SCA level wind gusts should be prevalent much of the time through Wednesday evening followed by conds dropping below SCA levels for Thursday and Thursday night. Steep choppy seas are expected much of the time as well.
For the southern inner waters, moderate to high confidence in the current forecast. The western Santa Barbara Channel will likely see SCA level wind gusts at times mainly in the afternoon and evening hours through Tuesday night. Otherwise and elsewhere, conds will remain below SCA levels through Thursday night.
27/209 AM.
A long period (18-20 seconds) southern hemisphere swell will add to the hurricane swell from west of Baja. The combined swells will result in an increased risk of dangerous rip currents across the coastal beaches, as well as elevated surf of 3-6 ft across the Los Angeles and Ventura County Beaches. In addition there are strong longshore currents, and powerful breaking waves due to the long periods. Dangerous water conditions have been reported from area beaches, with numerous rescues. The highest hazard is on exposed south to southwest facing beaches.
A Beach Hazard Statement is now in effect through Wednesday afternoon for Los Angeles and Ventura County beaches and the Central Coast beaches.
The Eastern Pacific will remain active with Hurricane Genevieve forecast to track from a location S of Baja to the northwest over the next 5 days. This will result in additional southerly swells impacting the coastline through the middle of next week. There will be a combination of SSW Southern Hemi swell, south swell from Fausto, and SSE swell from Genevieve starting Tuesday night or Wednesdya. As a result, the Beach Hazards Statement has been extended through Wednesday for south and southwest facing beaches.
Ca, Heat Advisory remains in effect until 8 PM PDT this evening for zones 38-88-342>345-348>358-362-366>382-548. (See LAXNPWLOX). Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Wednesday afternoon for zones 340-346-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT early this morning for zones 349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX). Extreme Heat Warning in effect until 8 PM PDT this evening for zone 383. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for zones 645-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT early this morning for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Tuesday for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
