15/139 PM.
Near to slightly below normal temperatures are expected to continue this weekend with low clouds and fog lingering into the afternoon across coast and some valleys south of Pt Conception. Gusty winds are expected at times along the Central Coast, and across the mountains and deserts through the weekend, strongest on Saturday. Hazardous seas will impact the coastal waters over the next several days. Warmer temperatures are expected next week, especially in the desert.
(tdy-Mon), 15/150 PM.
A 3000 foot marine layer will keep temperatures on the cooler side through the weekend with highs mostly in the 60s and 70s. The marine layer is expected to exit the Central Coast at least for a night or two due to strong mixing in the lower levels, but should remain well entrenched across LA/Ventura Counties. In fact, there could be some reverse clearing going on with some coastal areas seeing afternoon Sun earlier than the valleys.
The most notable weather impact will be the increasing northwest winds which will be strongest in the mountains, southwest Santa Barbara County, and over the coastal waters. Warning level gusts of around 60 mph are possible in the mountains and Antelope Valley, while some of the offshore waters could see gusts to 50kt at times.
A warming trend of 4-8 degrees will begin Monday as pressure gradients weaken and possibly turn slightly offshore following the passage of a low pressure system through the Great Basin.
(Tue-Fri), 15/209 PM.
There is increasing uncertainty in the forecast for the rest of next week particularly Wednesday and beyond as the models appear to be unsure whether the trough over the Pac NW will start to expand south or stay as is. The bulk of the latest guidance numbers favors either slight warming or a leveling off of temperatures but there is a growing number of solutions that suggest a deepening of the trough and cooling temps for the latter half of the week, especially inland. In either case, impacts would be minimal with highs within 5 degrees of normal in all areas and just typical afternoon sea breezes.
15/1752z.
At 1712Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 3500 ft deep. The top of the inversion was at 5900 ft with a temperature of 18 C.
High confidence in VFR TAFs for desert airfields (KPMD & KWJF).
Moderate confidence in remaining TAFs. Timing of CIG/VSBY restrictions may be off +/- 2 hours and flight minimums off by one category.
KLAX, Moderate confidence in TAF. MVFR CIGs around 025 expected to clear by 21Z Fri (+/- 1 hour). MVFR CIGs most likely to return 03Z-05Z Sat. CIG heights should arrive 010-20 and will gradually rise - reaching 2,000ft threshold around 15Z. Subsequent clearing time should be similar to Today. Good confidence that any east wind component remains below 7 kts.
KBUR, Moderate confidence in TAF. No wind issues expected.
15/217 PM.
GALE WARNINGS are in effect for the inner waters along the Central Coast, all the outer waters, and the Santa Barbara Channel this weekend. Please refer to MWWLOX for further details.
For the outer waters from the Central Coast to San Nicolas Island, high confidence forecast. Winds will continue to increase to GALE FORCE levels today, becoming high-end, STRONG GALES over the weekend. Local gusts may reach STORM FORCE late Saturday afternoon into evening. SCA level seas will continue to build through the weekend, becoming large 10-18 foot steep seas.
For the inner waters along the Central Coast, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level seas will continue through the weekend. Winds will increase to high-end, STRONG GALE FORCE levels this afternoon and continue through Sunday evening.
For the inner waters south of Point Conception, GALE WARNING for the Santa Barbara Channel goes into effect Saturday afternoon through late night, with a moderate risk of GALE FORCE winds again Sunday afternoon and evening. For the southern inner waters adjacent to the L.A. Coast, SCA conditions expected Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning. Highest seas and strongest winds expected across western portion. Localized GALE Force wind gusts are possible Saturday evening near Anacapa Island.
These dangerous sea conditions could capsize or damage small and large vessels. Mariners should adjust plans NOW to remain in safe harbor.
Ca, High Surf Advisory in effect until 9 AM PDT Monday for zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX). Wind Advisory remains in effect from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Saturday for zones 340-341-346>348. (See LAXNPWLOX). High Wind Warning in effect from 3 PM Saturday to 9 AM PDT Sunday for zones 349-351>353. (See LAXNPWLOX). Beach Hazards Statement in effect from Saturday afternoon through Monday morning for zones 349-350. (See LAXCFWLOX). High Surf Advisory in effect from 3 PM Saturday to 9 AM PDT Monday for zone 354. (See LAXCFWLOX). Beach Hazards Statement in effect from Saturday evening through Monday morning for zones 362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). High Wind Warning in effect from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM PDT Sunday for zones 376>378. (See LAXNPWLOX). High Wind Warning in effect from 9 PM this evening to 11 PM PDT Sunday for zones 381-383. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory remains in effect from noon to 11 PM PDT Sunday for zone 382. (See LAXNPWLOX). Red Flag Warning in effect from 10 AM to 10 PM PDT Saturday for zones 381-383. (See LAXRFWLOX). PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for zones 645-673. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect until 9 PM PDT Sunday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect from noon Saturday to 5 AM PDT Sunday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Watch in effect from Saturday afternoon through late Saturday night for zone 655. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 6 PM PDT this evening for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect from 6 PM this evening to 3 AM PDT Monday for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
