03/221 AM.
Partly cloudy skies today will turn mostly clear by Wednesday. Otherwise it will be dry conditions with a general warming trend and periods of offshore winds through the week. Warmest and windiest conditions likely Friday-Sunday.
(tdy-Thu), 03/821 PM.
***UPDATE***
A rapidly weakening cold front pushing in from the northwest has brought scattered light showers to the Central Coast, that will last through the evening. Accumulations have been light, well under 0.10 inches. Otherwise forecast remains on track. ***From Previous Discussion***
Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected today with temperatures slightly below normal with widespread upper 60s to mid 70s.
A prolonged period (up to a week) of weak to moderate offshore flow (LAX-DAG pressure gradient peaking somewhere between -3 to -6 each morning) will set up in the wake of the system. Peak wind gusts of 20 to 40 mph will be common for interior mountains filtering down into coastal ranges (such as Santa Ynez and Santa Lucias), valleys and foothills at times through Thursday. This is mostly sub- advisory, although there is a 20 percent chance that low end advisories will be needed at times. A low end Santa Ana Wind event may materialize by Friday with early estimates placing widespread peak wind gusts in the 25 to 45 mph range (strongest in the mountains) and teetering on advisory levels within the typical Santa Ana cooridor.
Warming and drying trends will take hold by Thursday and likely continue into the weekend thanks to the offshore flow and a moderate ridge (peaking near 585 dm) building overhead. Moderate heat risk with targeted Heat Advisories may be needed near the coast as early as Friday. Widespread highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s are likely by Friday, warmest coasts to coastal valleys. Fire weather concerns will be on the rise during this period, however recent rains may somewhat dampen or delay this concern.
(Fri-Mon), 03/115 PM.
Weak to moderate Santa Ana conditions will continue into Saturday or Sunday, possibly even continuing into early next week. Low end wind advisories may be needed for windiest areas with elevated fire weather concerns potentially continuing.
Moderate heat impacts may continue near the coast through Sunday or Monday with highs in the 80s and maybe some low 90s during the peak of the event.
A pattern shift is looking more likely for the middle to end of next week when wet weather is likely to return. While details remain fuzzy that far out, we will keep you updated as we learn more about the potential pattern shift.
03/2358z.
At 2326Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer. There was an elevated inversion between 6000-8000 ft, with a max temp of 10 C.
Moderate confidence in KPRB/KSBP/KSMX with a chance of scattered MVFR CIGs and showers through 06Z.
For all other sites, high confidence in VFR TAFs and moderate to high confidence in winds.
KLAX, Moderate to high confidence in TAF. Any easterly wind component tonight is expected to remain below 6 knots.
KBUR, High confidence in VFR TAF.
03/817 PM.
For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Through tonight, high confidence in Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds developing across PZZ673/676, but remaining below SCA levels across PZZ670. For Wednesday through Saturday, high confidence in combination of SCA level winds and seas across all of the Outer Waters. On Sunday, winds and seas are expected to drop below SCA levels.
For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Through tonight, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. For Wednesday afternoon through Thursday, there is a 50-60% chance of SCA level winds in the afternoon and evening hours. For Friday through Sunday, there is a 20% chance of SCA level north to northeast winds, mainly in the overnight and morning hours.
For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Through tonight, there is a 60-80% chance of SCA level winds across all of the southern Inner Waters. For Wednesday through Thursday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels, except for SCA winds in the western Santa Barbara Channel. For Friday through Saturday, there is a 20-30% chance of SCA level northeast winds from Ventura south to Santa Monica in the night and morning hours. On Sunday, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels.
Through Thursday, the gusty winds will likely result in choppy, short-period, seas.
Ca, NONE. PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM to 9 PM PST Wednesday for zones 645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Wednesday for zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM Wednesday to 3 AM PST Friday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Friday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
