12/524 PM.
Night through morning low clouds and fog will cover most of the coasts and many valley locations through the weekend and into early next week. Highs will cool slightly through Sunday. Most high temperatures will remain above normal, with the exception of the coasts, which will see temperatures near to slightly below normal.
(tdy-Mon), 12/202 PM.
Good agreement among Hi-res guidance and current radar/Sat trends that all convective activity will remain well to the south and east of our CWA.
Very typical June weather will dominate the short and long term period across Southern California. Our CWA will remain situated under the southeastern periphery of the ridge. At the surface, persistent moderate to strong onshore flow is expected (strongest in the afternoon).
Marine layer stratus will behave similarly each day and night. Expecting early evening arrival and late morning/early afternoon departure. Locations across the immediate coastline could remain cloudy all day (if not most) due to strong pressure gradients.
This morning there was localized patches of dense fog across the Santa Maria Valley. Due to lighter winds, there is a higher chc of dense fog tomorrow morning. This should allow the clouds to settle at the sfc. There is a 20% chance a dense fog advisory will be needed.
The strong (8-9mb) LAX-DAG in the afternoon will bring enhanced seabreeze and gusty winds (20-30 mph locally 35 mph) across the Antelope Valley each day. Winds will remain below advisory levels across the CWA.
The increasing onshore flow and expanded marine layer coverage will bring a slow cooling trend through the weekend. By Sunday, csts/vlys should be fairly close to normal temperatures. While the mtns & interior will remain above normal thru the weekend. Csts: 70s - low 80s. Vlys: mid 80s - low 90s. near 100 across Antelope Valley.
(Tue-Fri), 12/203 PM.
Heights are expected to peak Monday into Tuesday in response to aforementioned ridge nosing in from the north and west. Due to persistent moderate to strong onshore flow not expecting too much warming for csts/vlys (remaining fairly close to normal). By Tuesday, the far interior should be around 10 degrees above normal. 100 degree readings are possible to likely across the Cuyama and Antelope valleys. Unlikely that we will need any heat products.
Thereafter, the ridge is expected to break down and at the sfc onshore flow will increase even more to the N and E. Subtle differences in guidance but the flow turns zonal and even a bit cyclonic as there is some agreement of a dry shortwave trough approaching the coast by Friday. This will result in a cooling trend with near to below normal temperatures into the weekend.
No major wind issues expected, but typical gusty SW-W winds in the afternoon will occur across the Antelope Valley (likely strongest Wednesday into Friday).
13/0023z.
At 1708Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer. The top of the inversion was at 2300 ft with a maximum temperature of 27 C.
High confidence in VFR TAFs for KPRB, KPMD and KWJF.
Moderate confidence in TAFs for KBUR and KVNY with a 20 percent chc of LIFR/IFR cig and vis 12Z-15Z.
Moderate confidence in remaining TAFs. Timing of CIG/VSBY restrictions may be off +/- 2 hours and flight minimums by one category.
KLAX, Moderate confidence in the 00Z TAF. The timing of CIGs arrival and dissipation could differ by +/- 2 hours from TAF times. No significant east wind component expected.
KBUR, Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 20 percent chc of LIFR CIGs 12Z-15Z.
12/201 PM.
No significant changes to the previous forecast. Conditions are generally expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels through early next week.
West winds at 5 to 10 kts this afternoon. Localized gusts could reach or exceed 21 kts each afternoon through early next week near Pt Conception, Pt Dume, near the Channel Islands, western Santa Barbara Channel, and across the San Pedro Channel. There is a low chance of SCA winds this the weekend, with increasing chances (25-50%) south of Pt Conception early next week.
12/202 PM.
A long period southerly swell (less energy) originating from the southern Hemisphere is expected to arrive on Saturday and continuing through early next week. A Beach Hazard Statement is in effect from Saturday morning through Monday evening due to elevated surf of 3 o 6 feet on south-facing beaches of Ventura County Beaches, Malibu Coast, Los Angeles County Beaches, and Southern Santa Barbara County Beaches.
Evening tides of near 7.5ft are predicted from Saturday through Tuesday. The combination of these two factors may result in minor to locally moderate coastal flooding for south exposed coasts, along with potential for elevated to high surf and sneaker waves. Even as tides lower, another southerly swell arrives which could extend concerns into Wednesday or Thursday. Stay tuned for updates.
Ca, Beach Hazards Statement in effect from Saturday morning through Monday evening for zones 349-350-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ, NONE.
