23/118 AM.
Mild weather is expected through the weekend, with daytime highs generally within a few degrees of normal. May gray low clouds and fog will spread over the coasts and valleys each night through morning period. Monday into at least the middle of next week, well below normal temperatures are likely with areas of gusty evening winds.
(tdy-Mon), 23/331 AM.
Overall, 00Z models in good synoptic agreement through the short term period. At upper levels, weak troughing will prevail today then a weak upper low will swing over the area Sunday and Monday. At the surface, moderate to strong onshore flow will prevail with some northwesterly flow on Sunday and Monday.
Forecast-wise, a very benign "May Gray" pattern will continue. The marine layer will remain rather deep through Monday. With the strength of the onshore pressure gradients, stratus should push well inland to the Santa Clarita Valley each night. Looking at high resolution models and the HREF, this expectation looks good. Each afternoon, stratus should clear pretty well although some beaches could remain on the cloudy side. Other than the stratus, skies should remain mostly clear through Monday.
As for winds, the onshore flow will generate continued gusty southwesterly winds across interior sections in the afternoon and evening hours. At this time, any advisory-level winds across the desert foothills and deserts are expected to remain localized through Sunday, but there is a chance of more widespread advisory-level gusts on Monday. Additionally, there will be some northwesterly winds in the usual spots (Santa Ynez Range and I-5 Corridor) Sunday and Monday, but no advisory issues are expected.
As for temperatures, with the "May Gray" pattern, temperatures will remain on the cool side. Today and Sunday, highs will hover around seasonal normals, but will drop a couple degrees below normal for most areas on Monday.
(Tue-Fri), 23/118 AM.
For the extended, 00Z models continue to exhibit good synoptic agreement through the period. Main feature of note will be a rather impressive upper low, dropping into the Great Basin through the period.
With this synoptic pattern, the "May Gray" pattern will continue across the area. Onshore pressure gradients will remain strong, allowing for a widespread stratus pattern each night and morning with good stratus dissipation each afternoon. With respect to the upper low, it remains too far northeast of the area to bring any threat of showers, but will likely result in some amount of mid to high level clouds through the period.
As for winds, the strong onshore flow will continue to generate near advisory-level southwesterly each afternoon/evening across interior sections. Additionally, northwesterly winds will be on the increase through the period with a decent chance of advisory level winds across the Central Coast, as well as the Santa Ynez range, each afternoon and evening.
Finally with respect to temperatures, Tuesday through Thursday will remain on the "chilly" side with highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s across the entire region. On Friday, highs look to rebound about 4-8 degrees.
23/1030z.
At 0800Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1800 feet deep. The top of the inversion was 3900 feet with a temperature of 17 degrees Celsius.
For 12Z TAF package, high confidence in KWJF and KPMD. For all other sites, moderate confidence in forecasts as flight category changes could be up to +/- 3 hours of current forecasts.
KLAX, Moderate confidence in 12Z TAF. Flight category changes could be +/- 2 hours of current forecasts. No significant easterly wind component is expected.
KBUR, Moderate confidence in 12Z TAF. Flight category changes could be +/- 2 hours of current forecasts.
23/118 AM.
For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Sunday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels. For Monday through Wednesday, high confidence in both winds and seas increasing to SCA levels. Additionally, there is a 30-40% chance of Gale force winds Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night.
For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Sunday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. On Monday, there is a 30-40% chance of SCA level winds in the afternoon and evening hours. For Tuesday through Wednesday, high confidence in a combination of SCA level winds (strongest in the afternoon and evening hours) and seas. Additionally, there is a 20-30% chance of Gale force winds Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night.
For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Sunday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. For Monday and Tuesday, there is a 60-70% chance of SCA level winds across the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel and a 20% chance of SCA level winds elsewhere. On Wednesday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels.
Ca, NONE. PZ, NONE.
