30/214 AM.
Warming and drying through most of next week. June Gloom clouds will be prevalent over coastal areas through next week, but will be limited Sunday and Monday leading to the warmest two days. Mountains and interior areas will likely see the warmest conditions around Wednesday of next week. Locally gusty north winds likey over the weekend.
(tdy-Mon), 30/817 AM.
***UPDATE***
Low clouds have filled in much of the coasts and valleys north of Point Conception. South of Point Conception, small pockets of marine layer clouds have formed, but skies remain clear for most of the area. Expected marine layer clouds to burn off later today, then low confidence in the exact return and extent of marine layer clouds tonight.
Temperatures are expected to rise 4-8 degrees today compared to yesterday, with some areas locally reaching 12 degrees warmer.
Northwest to north winds gusts in the 30-40 mph range were common across southwest Santa Barbara County and northern LA County including I-5 Corridor and the western Antelope Valley and foothills. Expecting slightly stronger winds in the same areas tonight, so chances for wind advisories is increasing.
***From Previous Discussion***
For Saturday through Monday, latest models do not indicate anything to deviate from current forecast. At upper levels, a rather non-descript ridge will "build" over the area. Through Monday, H5 heights will gradually increase from day-to-day. At the surface, moderate onshore gradients will continue to the east with an increase in northwesterly offshore gradients. With this pattern, skies will remain mostly clear except for some night and morning stratus/fog across the coastal plain. Temperatures will be on the increase through Sunday with near persistence temperatures on Monday. By Sunday and Monday, coastal areas will have highs generally in the 70s while 80s to mid 90s temperatures can be expected from the valleys eastward. Based on current Heat Risk numbers, do not anticipate any significant heat issues through the period.
One thing to watch through the weekend will be northerly winds. As the northwesterly offshore pressure gradients increase, northerly winds will increase across the usual areas (Central Coast, Santa Ynez Range and the I-5 Corridor). At this time, there looks to be a chance of advisory-level northerly winds this weekend, mainly across the western half of the Santa Ynez Range. This will need to be monitored closely.
(Tue-Fri), 30/150 AM.
High pressure aloft, that is already building, will continue to steadily climb through Wednesday or Thursday, before slowly lowering. There is still a range of outcomes in terms of the speed and magnitude of those trends, but overall that story looks locked in. As a result, temperatures will peak over the mountains and interior areas on Wednesday and Thursday, when highs between 90 and 100 will be common. On the coastal side of the mountains however, temperatures will remain warm-ish but look to drop some from the Monday peak as we head towards the end of the week thanks to the strengthening onshore flow. The magnitude of that cooling will depend on how the marine layer response which at this point is anyones guess, but that trend also looks locked in as all the ensembles show strengthening onshore pressure gradients. Heat Advisories and Warnings through the period remain unlikely. Gusty onshore winds should be expected over the interior sections.
30/0919z.
At 09Z over KLAX, a marine layer is forming, currently 1200 feet deep with an inversion top at 3000 feet and 14 degrees Celsius.
LIFR/IFR ceilings are forming at KPRB KSBP KSMX. Chances are much smaller Sunday morning, with KSMX having the highest chance at 50%.
Chances of IFR/MVFR ceilings forming this at KSBA (20%) KOXR (40%) KCMA (40%) KSMO (90%) KLAX (90%) KLGB (80%) KBUR (30%) KVNY (20%). Moderate confidence in timing (plus or minus 3 hours). High confidence in VFR conditions at all sites by 19Z. Chances of low clouds similar Sunday morning. Low-end LLWS possible at KSBA 06-10Z Sunday.
KLAX, MVFR ceilings forming, and likely to continue through 16-18Z. Similar ceilings likely to form Sunday morning. High confidence that any east winds will stay under 8 knots.
KBUR, 30% chance of BKN008-12 sometime through 16Z, with a 40% chance for Sunday morning.
30/841 AM.
For the Outer Waters from the Central Coast to San Nicolas Island, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. High confidence in a combination of at least Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas through at least most of next week. There is a 60% chance of low-end Gale Force winds tonight south of Point Sal (Gale Warning issued), and a 30% chance to the north. There is a 40% chance of Gale force winds returning on Wednesday.
For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast, with daily afternoon and evening SCAs through Sunday. For Monday through Wednesday, there is a 40-50% chance of SCA level winds in the afternoon and evening hours.
For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. There is a 60% chance of SCA winds over the western half of the Santa Barbara channel tonight, with lower chances to follow through early next week. The remaining areas will see local winds near SCA in the afternoon hours, but likely not expansive enough to warrant an SCA.
All waters will see choppy seas due to the winds in the region, especially in the afternoon and overnight hours.
Ca, High Surf Advisory in effect until 10 PM PDT Sunday for zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect from 2 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Sunday for zones 645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 AM PDT Monday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 6 PM PDT this evening for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM PDT Sunday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
