02/957 PM.
There is a small chance of very light rain for the Central Coast Tuesday. Otherwise mostly dry conditions with a general warming trend and periods of offshore winds expected through the week. Warmest and windiest conditions likely Friday-Sunday.
(Mon-Thu), 02/843 PM.
***UPDATE***
Mostly sunny skies and weaker winds, along with slowly building high pressure allowed temperatures to warm 5-10 degrees from yesterday's highs. Today highs generally ranged from near normal to 8 degrees above normal. May need wind advisories for the northerly Santa Barbara south coast Tuesday night as the system moves through. Other breezy locations will be many of the interior mountains from the I-5 Corridor. These winds are forecast to become northeast Wednesday, leading to the strongest winds focusing over the Santa Lucia Mountains, along with western portions of the Santa Ynez Range. These areas may also need wind advisories, but will hold off on issuing to see if guidance sticks to this solution.
This low pressure system appears to sweep through the area quickly, bringing light rain to the Central Coast, clouds, and cooler temperatures. High temperatures may need to be cooled somewhat for Tuesday, but expecting a warming trend starting Wednesday as offshore winds become the dominant feature.
***From Previous Discussion***
Another cool night is on tap, although not quite as cool as last night. Then tomorrow features a slight chance to a chance of very light rain across the Central Coast, with highest chances in far northwest SLO County. Otherwise we are expecting dry conditions with generally slightly below normal high temperatures over the next few days. The upper low passing to our north and its decaying cold front responsible for the light rain chances across the Central Coast will bring partly to mostly cloudy skies to the region and slight cooling to much of the area tomorrow (especially up north) along with some breezy onshore winds at the coasts.
Weak to locally moderate north to northeast flow will be common each day across the interior and southern Santa Barbara starting Tuesday night. This will help temperatures gradually warm through the week, with high temperatures inching closer to early November averages by Thursday. Winds will likely remain below advisory levels, but some isolated areas may gust to 45 mph. Therefore widespread wind advisories are unlikely, but there is a low chance for issuances for the windiest areas.
(Fri-Mon), 02/119 PM.
The long term period will be characterized by ridging and more expansive Santa Ana Winds, bringing warm, dry, and windy conditions to the region. Winds will likely descend to coastal areas such as the Ventura County coastal plain and Malibu. While these winds will likely reach more locations, wind speeds are still favored to remain just a touch below advisory levels across most areas. However, if upper level support increases some, surface level winds could reach advisory levels.
Temperatures will increase under the influence of the downslope warming effect of the Santa Ana Winds, especially at the coasts. At this point there is an increasing risk of moderate heat related illnesses for coastal areas Saturday and Sunday when warmest temperatures are expected, thus Heat Advisories may be needed.
03/0556z.
At 0512Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer. There was an elevated inversion between 6000 feet and 8000 feet. The top of this inversion had a temperature of 14 degrees C.
Moderate confidence in TAFs for KSMX/KSBP/KPRB with 25% chance of low MVFR cigs 12Z-18Z and 20% of -DZ or -SHRA from 18Z to 24Z.
High confidence in remaining TAFs.
KLAX, High confidence in TAF. High confidence that any east wind component will remain AOB 6Kt.
KBUR, High confidence in TAF.
02/928 PM.
High confidence in Small Craft Advisory (SCA) west winds quickly forming Tuesday afternoon over most if not all waters south of Point Conception, including the nearshore waters of the Santa Barbara Channel and Santa Monica Bay. Short period choppy seas will also form. High confidence in SCA NW to N winds shifting on Wednesday to the more traditional areas from the Central Coast to San Nicolas Island and will continue through Thursday. Short period choppy seas should be expected most areas through Thursday as a result.
There is a moderate risk for low-end SCA level NE winds forming this weekend from Ventura through Santa Monica.
Ca, NONE. PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect from 1 PM Tuesday to 4 AM PST Wednesday for zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 8 AM Wednesday to 8 AM PST Thursday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 1 PM Tuesday to 8 AM PST Thursday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
