27/548 PM.
Quiet weather with seasonal temperatures will prevail this week. Breezy west to northwest winds will occur across portions of the area at times. Isolated showers will be possible over the interior and mountains Wednesday afternoon and evening.
(Mon-Thu), 27/852 PM.
***UPDATE***
Today was another cool day to start off this week supported by an upper level low passing through the region. High temperatures were in the 60s for much of the region. Patchy clouds and westerly winds also helped moderate the temperatures. Looking into tonight, some gusty winds have developed over western portions of the Santa Ynez Range, but north winds should remain below advisory levels. Could see a few areas of low clouds and patchy fog develop by the early morning hours, with best chances in the Paso Robles area. Otherwise, sunny skies for Tuesday along with lighter winds, some offshore winds north of Point Conception, and building high pressure should lead to a warming trend. Current forecast looks on track, with no significant changes needed at this time.
***From Previous Discussion***
Cool weather with breezy west to northwest winds for some coastal and interior areas will continue through this evening. Weak offshore trends will support a noticeable a warm up into Tuesday.
A weak trough moving through the region Wednesday may provide just enough instability with our late April Sun to initiate isolated showers focused across interior sections of Ventura, Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo Counties with a 5-10 percent chance of a thunderstorm. Brief heavy downpours and cloud-to- ground lightning would likely be the greatest concern with any thunderstorms.
Breezy west to northwest winds will likely return in the wake of the weak trough into Thursday with several degrees of warming away from the coast.
(Fri-Mon), 27/132 PM.
Ridging will dominate the weather on Friday and Saturday. There will be moderate onshore flow so there may be some night through morning low clouds and fog. The onshore flow will also limit the amount of warming created by the ridge. Look for 2 to 4 degrees of warming (a little less across the Central Coast due to the onshore flow) on Friday with little change on Saturday. Max temps everywhere, save for the beaches, will end up 2 to 4 degrees above normal.
Plenty of disagreement between all mdls starting Sunday. The preponderance of solutions favors a 4 to 8 degree cool down with lowering hgts and strong onshore flow. The onshore flow will also bring gusty winds to the mtns and Antelope Vly in the afternoon.
While still a very low confidence forecast there is some chance of light rain anytime Sunday night through Tuesday or Wednesday.
28/0038z.
At 2355Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor an inversion.
Overall high confidence in the TAFs, except moderate confidence in KPRB and the LA coastal sites where there is a 30% chance of stratus CIGs forming overnight. MVFR is most likely for LA County, with IFR for KPRB. 10% chance of low clouds at any other coastal site.
KLAX, High confidence in the 00Z TAF through this evening. There is a 20-30 percent chc of MVFR cigs between 12Z to 17Z. No significant east wind component is expected.
KBUR, High confidence in CAVU conds for the 00Z TAF.
27/832 PM.
Moderate confidence in low-end Small Craft Advisory (SCA) W-NW winds from Point Sal to San Nicolas Island through late tonight, and again Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday Night. High confidence in winds expanding to the nearshore and outer waters off the Central Coast Wednesday and Thursday and possibly into Friday. Moderate confidence that conds will remain near but below SCA levels over the weekend.
For the Santa Barbara Channel, SCA winds are possible (30% chance) each afternoon and evening through Wednesday over the western Channel. There is a higher chance of SCA winds Thursday afternoon and night, followed by lighter winds through the weekend.
Otherwise, typical winds expected elsewhere which includes gusty (but under SCA winds) nearshore each afternoon.
High confidence in swell remaining rather small through Thursday, but choppy seas will increase with the winds each afternoon and night. Thursday night into the week seas will build, potentially reaching 10 feet over the northern outer waters by Saturday.
Ca, NONE. PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect until 2 AM PDT Tuesday for zones 650-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
