01/223 PM.
Cooler than normal conditions will continue through Thursday, with significant warming Friday through Sunday. Gusty north winds on Thursday will be followed by a moderate to locally strong Santa Ana wind event Friday through Saturday.
(Wed-Sat), 01/811 PM.
Latest satellite and surface observations indicate partly to mostly cloudy skies with a mix of low level and high level clouds. West to northwest winds, gusting 25-35 MPH, are observed across the mountains and deserts.
Forecast-wise for the short term, main focus will be on the winds. Northerly offshore gradients are forecast to increase later tonight through Thursday night. As this happens, northwest to north winds will increase across the usual north wind-prone spots as well as the Antelope Valley. Through Thursday night, wind gusts of 30-50 MPH are expected in these areas and WIND ADVISORIES will remain in effect. By late Thursday night, the gradients will shift to the northeast with the LAX-DAG gradient forecast to top out in the -5.5 to -6.5 mb range. So, will still be expecting a moderate to locally strong Santa Ana wind event Friday through Saturday with the strongest winds on Friday across Ventura and LA counties. As mentioned by the previous shift, there is a wide range of outcomes for the Santa Ana winds, but there's decent confidence in at least a widespread moderate event (based on the ensemble mean gusts), requiring WIND ADVISORIES for many areas (mainly across Ventura and LA counties). Also, there is a the potential for some warning level gusts around 65 MPH on Friday across the western San Gabriels/Santa Susana Mountains and the western Santa Monicas. So for the Friday/Saturday time frame, will continue with the HIGH WIND WATCH for those most favored areas on Friday. WIND ADVISORIES will likely be needed for Friday through Saturday for coastal and valley zones. Please refer to LAXNPWLOX for the latest details on the wind products.
Secondary issue will be rising temperatures through the short term period. With high pressure building aloft and the increasing offshore gradients, temperatures will be on the upswing through Saturday. The NBM continues to look a bit underdone for temperatures, especially for Saturday. So, current forecast is higher than the NBM numbers and about 8-15 degrees above normal for most areas by Saturday. Fortunately, looking at Heat Risk forecasts, the chances for any heat-related products looks rather low at this time.
Other than winds and temperatures, the forecast is pretty benign. Partly cloudy to mostly clear conditions are expected through the period. There is a slight chance of some light showers north of Point Conception tonight then across interior sections of the area during the day on Thursday. Amounts, if any, are expected to be less than 0.10 inches. By Thursday night and continuing through Saturday, dry conditions are conditions.
(Sun-Wed), 01/254 PM.
Offshore winds will weaken on Sunday, but with the ridge still in place, it will remain warm.
On Monday a trof will push the ridge to the east and hgts will fall. The offshore flow turns onshore and this will lead to 3 to 6 degrees of cooling across the board. Despite this cooling max temps will end up 4 to 8 degrees above normal.
There is some disagreement on the upper level pattern on Tuesday. The GFS has more of a trof like pattern while the EC favors ridging. The ensembles lean towards the EC and brings 2 to 4 degrees of warming to most areas.
The AI-GFS is dry through the next 14 days. The AI-EC however does show a system in the area around the 11th. Both mdls continue to indicate continued above normal max temps.
02/0159z.
At 21Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor an inversion.
Overall, moderate confidence in 00Z TAF Package. Expecting MVFR to VFR conditions for the period, with the best chance for MVFR conditions near the coasts. However, lower confidence in cig arrival times and clearing times.
KLAX, Moderate confidence in TAF. CIGs and VIS expected to vary MVFR to VFR through forecast period. No significant east wind component expected.
KBUR, Moderate confidence in TAF. CIGs and VIS expected to vary MVFR to VFR through forecast period. Gusty south winds are possible from 19Z to 22Z.
01/1253 PM.
There is a chance of spotty showers through early Thursday morning north of Point Conception.
Widespread strong Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds are expected on Thursday across the majority of the coastal waters. There is a moderate chance (30-50%) for low-end GALES across the Outer waters late Thursday afternoon into the overnight hours. Local gusts to 35 knots are also possible across western portions of the Santa Barbara Channel.
Expecting seas to build quickly on Thursday, peaking Thursday night. Seas could reach SCA levels 10-12 feet over the outer waters and inner waters north of Point Sal. Seas for the southern inner waters could peak around 4 to 7 feet. Wave heights should drop off rather quickly as winds shift to the northeast Friday morning.
Ca, Wind Advisory remains in effect until 11 PM PDT Thursday for zones 349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory remains in effect from 11 PM Thursday to 5 AM PDT Friday for zones 352-353. (See LAXNPWLOX). High Wind Watch remains in effect from Friday morning through Friday afternoon for zones 369-375-379. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory remains in effect from 6 PM Thursday to 6 AM PDT Friday for zones 375>378. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory remains in effect from noon to 11 PM PDT Thursday for zones 381-383. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect from 9 AM Thursday to 3 AM PDT Friday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Thursday for zone 655. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 AM Thursday to 11 AM PDT Friday for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 11 AM PDT Friday for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
