29/911 AM.
Cool but dry today with breezy onshore winds. Warming and drying Saturday through next week, but a return of low clouds and fog will moderate coastal temperatures. Sunday and Monday will likely be the warmest with highs 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Locally gusty north winds over the weekend.
(tdy-Sun), 29/925 AM.
***UPDATE***
The upper low has moved into Nevada and northern Arizona but there is still some lingering moisture around and temperatures today will remain several degrees below normal. Post-frontal northwest winds will kick up this afternoon, especially along the Central Coast, the mountains, the Antelope Valley, and over the coastal waters. Otherwise, just partly cloudy skies but no rain expected.
A warming trend will begin this weekend, peaking Sunday. Gusty Sundowner winds are expected across southwest Santa Barbara County each evening, with gusts to 45 mph possible.
***From Previous Discussion***
Forecast-wise for the short term, forecast looks very much on track. Any lingering showers should end by sunrise Friday.
For Friday through Sunday, the weather will return to a more late May pattern. With the ridge building overhead, skies should generally remain mostly clear. However, there will likely be some coastal stratus/fog, but the areal coverage each night will diminish. The combination of the flat upper ridge, less marine influence and weaker onshore flow will allow for a very nice warming trend. By Sunday, coastal areas will have highs in the 70s while the valley/interior sections will have highs in the 80s to lower 90s (about 5-10 degrees above seasonal normals).
One thing to watch this weekend will be the winds. As this pattern develops, northerly offshore pressure gradients will develop. So, there will be gusty northwesterly winds in the usual spots (Santa Ynez Range, I-5 Corridor and the Central Coast). At this time, there is about a 20-30% chance of winds reaching advisory levels.
(Mon-Thu), 29/309 AM.
The ridge of high pressure that will start to build over the weekend looks poised to continue to build through the middle of next week. This will cause temperatures over the interior mountains and deserts to steadily climb through most of next week. Wednesday and Thursday look the warmest when 500 millibar heights peak at 585-588 decameters. Highs in the 90-100 range look all but certain. Over the coastal side of the mountains, Monday looks warm with near neutral onshore pressure gradients, and some northerly flow. Highs between 82 and 92 look favorable inland of the beaches, which is 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Heat Advisories and Warnings however are unlikely. The majority of ensemble solutions show onshore pressure gradients strengthening Tuesday through Thursday. Being June Gloom season, one has to expect at least modest marine layer cooling influence and probably some low clouds, which will moderate the high temperature potential. So the mostly likely scenario calls for the coastal and valley areas to cool some Tuesday through Thursday while the interior areas warm up. This would increase the west to east temperature gradient and further enhance what should be some gusty onshore winds over the interior. There are about 10 percent of the ensembles however that do not increase the onshore flow and bring very warm conditions to the valleys. This is the reasonable worst-case but unlikely scenario.
29/1737z.
At 1630Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer or inversion.
Overall, moderate confidence in 18Z TAF Package. Timing of CIG/VSBY restrictions may be off +/- 2 hours and flight minimums off by one category.
KLAX, Moderate confidence in TAF. Arrival and clearing times of MVFR CIGs 015 (+/- 300ft) could be off +/- 2 hours from current forecast. There is a 15% chance east wind component reaches 7-8 kts from 09Z-14Z Saturday.
KBUR, Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 40% chance MVFR CIGs do not develop from 08Z-15Z Sat. No wind issues expected.
29/717 AM.
High confidence in conditions staying below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) through early this afternoon, with a long period northwest swell and short period west wind swell. High confidence in SCA conditions expanding through the weekend.
For the outer waters from the Central Coast to San Nicolas Island, at least SCA conditions likely starting Friday afternoon and lasting for the foreseeable future. Chances for Gales as well, Friday Night (20%), Saturday Night (50%) and Wednesday Night (60%). The nearshore waters likely to see SCA conditions each afternoon and evening through Saturday.
For the Santa Barbara Channel, SCA conditions are likely for the western portion through Saturday. For all other waters, SCA conditions unlikely through at least early next week, but choppy seas are likely each afternoon and evening.
Ca, NONE. PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Saturday for zones 645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM PDT Monday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
