08/239 PM.
A warming trend will continue this week with well above normal temperatures through next Friday, peaking Tuesday through Thursday. Offshore flow will produce local canyon winds in the mornings.
(tdy-Thu), 08/238 PM.
Weak Santa Ana conditions associated with weak to moderate offshore flow across the region will persist through Wednesday under a quite strong ridge aloft for this time of year. The result will be dry, warm, and breezy conditions with widespread highs in the 70s to mid 80s with the warmest valleys nearing 90 degrees. These types of temperatures may bring increased concerns for heat illnesses for vulnerable people or those who are outside for a prolonged period of time. The dry air mass and long nights this time of year will support temperatures dropping off quickly in the evening, especially where winds drop off. The ridge begins breaking down with offshore flow weakening or reversing onshore Thursday, kicking off a decent cooling trend.
Peak wind gusts in the typical Santa Ana Wind corridor and other wind prone areas such as the Santa Lucias will generally be 20 to 40 mph peaking each night to early afternoon through Wednesday. A Wind Advisory continues for the Santa Lucias with marginal wind advisory possible for the most prone Santa Ana wind areas of Ventura/Los Angeles County. Fortunately, fire weather concerns are still limited due to the significant rainfall we experienced earlier this season.
(Fri-Mon), 08/239 PM.
Seasonably warm conditions are anticipated this weekend with night to morning low clouds potentially returning to coastal areas along with afternoon to evening breezy onshore to northwest winds.
Rainfree conditions look to continue well into next week. There is a 30-40 percent chance of a strong ridge rebuilding overhead into the middle part of next week with weak to moderate Santa Ana conditions at times. In this scenario, widespread highs in the 70s to mid 80s would return for most coasts and coastal valleys. If the ridge is weaker or offshore flow doesn’t materialize (40-50 percent chance), more seasonably warm temperatures (60s and 70s) would be common.
08/1911z.
At 1756Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer. There was a surface- based inversion up to 1600 feet with a temperature of 20 C.
Moderate to high confidence in KPRB, KSMO, KLAX, and KLGB TAFs. High confidence in remaining TAFs. There is a 30% chance of VLIFR to LIFR conditions at KPRB after 10Z Tue, and after 03Z Tue for KSMO, KLAX, and KLGB.
KLAX, Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 30% chance of cigs arriving as early as 03Z. If cigs do arrive, there is a 40% chance of TEMPO 1/4SM FG BKN002 conds, otherwise 1/2SM FG to 1SM BR and BKN002-004 cigs will be common. Any easterly winds will remain less than 7 knots.
KBUR, High confidence in VFR TAF.
08/847 AM.
Moderate confidence in the current forecast. Slightly higher confidence exists in the seas forecast relative to winds.
For the outer waters southwest through northwest of the Channel Islands beyond 10 NM offshore of the Central Coast, there is a 40-60% chance of low-end Small Craft Advisory (SCA) conditions through early Wednesday, with a 30-40% chance of winds lingering through the rest of the week. The highest chances will be across the western portions north of San Nicolas Island during the afternoon and evening hours.
For the inner waters south of Point Conception and the nearshore waters along the Central Coast out to 10 NM offshore, there is a 60% percent chance of local northeast SCA level wind gusts from Ventura to Santa Monica and a 60-70% chance of northeast SCA winds from near Pismo Beach to Point Piedras Blancas each night and morning through Tuesday. There is a low-to- moderate (20 to 40 percent) chance of SCA level NE winds once again for the aforementioned areas Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Otherwise, winds and seas should remain below SCA levels.
Ca, Wind Advisory remains in effect until 10 AM PST Tuesday for zone 342. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect until 11 AM PST Tuesday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Wednesday for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
