13/232 AM.
Minor to moderate coastal flooding is likely continue through at least Tuesday. A Santa Ana wind pattern will create much warmer temperatures this week as well as gusty northeast winds at times, strongest Thursday and Friday.
(tdy-Thu), 13/938 AM.
***UPDATE***
Moderate offshore trends (2 mb offshore in south and west directions) has yielded full Sun and kicked off the drying trends with hints of warming to kick off in earnest into Wednesday.
We have increasing confidence in a strong Santa Ana Wind event peaking Thursday into Friday. We will likely be issuing Wind Headlines for the Santa Ana Wind Cooridor of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties today. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for roughly the same areas Thursday and Friday. While Heat Advisories will likely be issued for ALL coastal areas for Thursday through Saturday.
***From Previous Discussion***
The forecast through this weekend remains largely unchanged. A low pressure system is moving slowly through the Great Basin today and Wednesday. That will set the stage for a developing Santa Ana wind event across portions of southern California this week as high pressure over the Great Basin forces winds up and over the mountains and down into the valleys and coastal areas. The rapid acceleration of the air into increasingly higher pressure at lower elevations will force the air to heat up significantly (per the gas law). Will start to see this process as early as today as the upper low advances to the southeast, allowing the transport of air from the north to begin. Latest models show just a very light north-northeast wind developing over the mountains today and tonight, then increasing in speeds each day through Friday, by which time winds aloft will be around 40-50 mph. In response, temperatures across the coast and valleys will warm by roughly 10 degrees each day, peaking Friday with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s in most areas. There is at least a 60-80% chance of heat advisories across many coastal areas on Friday, but much lower chances elsewhere since coastal areas are more susceptible to heat issues and also coastal areas will probably be warmer than the valleys (a common result in strong Santa Anas). Mountains and deserts will warm as well but by much lower amounts.
The Santa Ana winds will be strongest Friday but Thursday likely a close second. Most of winds will be confined to LA and Ventura Counties where wind advisories and/or warnings will be needed. Could see wind gusts into the 60s and 70s in the most favored exposed areas of the San Gabriel Mountains. Isolated areas of the Central Coast will get gusty winds as well, especially in and around the Santa Lucias.
(Fri-Mon), 13/324 AM.
One more day of gusty Santa Ana winds are possible (30-40 percent chance of reaching advisory levels) into Saturday, taking on a more easterly orientation.
Temperatures are expected to remain well above normal through Sunday, but slowly cooling into next week. And looking out a little further there is fairly high agreement in the models that another cold upper low will move into the area the middle of next week, for another big swing into temperatures and weather conditions. It looks like mainly a dry system at this point, but there is some potential is tracks just enough offshore to support some shower activity.
13/1804z.
At 1736Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor inversion.
High confidence in TAFs.
KLAX, High confidence in TAF. Any E wind component expected to remain below 7 kt.
KBUR, High confidence in TAF.
13/807 AM.
For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. For the afternoon and evening periods through Wednesday, there is a 40-60% chance of SCA level winds around Point Conception. For Thursday through Saturday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels for most of the waters. The only exception is there is a 20-30% chance of E-NE SCA level wind gusts across the outer waters south of the Channel Islands and west to northwest of San Nicholas Island due to Santa Ana winds during the late night through morning hours Thursday through Saturday. The highest chances are on Friday.
For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Through Wednesday, there is a 30% chance of SCA level winds in the afternoon and evening hours. Otherwise expect conds to remain below SCA levels.
For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate confidence in current forecast. Through Wednesday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels for most area, but the only exception is the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel where there is a 50% chance of SCA level winds Tuesday afternoon and evening. Thursday through Saturday, there is a 40-60% chance of SCA level northeast winds from Ventura south to Santa Monica, strongest during the late night into early afternoon hours.
Long period swells from the west and the south are affecting the coastal waters, and can create a confused sea state. This can make boating more challenging and dangerous, especially for small vessels.
13/830 AM.
While the peak timing for the most impactful coastal flooding has passed, there is still a threat of minor to moderate coastal flooding through today, due to continued high tides and elevated surf. The highest tides will occur during the morning and range from 7.0 to 7.2 feet this morning, with secondary high tides during the evening (around 5 feet). As for elevated surf, a long period southerly swell and long period westerly swell will impact the coastal waters the next several days.
The Beach Hazards Statement for Santa Barbara South Coast will continue into this afternoon for a combination of elevated surf and minor tidal overflow during high tides.
A Beach Hazards Statement Tuesday through Thursday morning will likely be extended following the Coastal Flood Advisory expiration this afternoon for the LA/Ventura County Beaches. This is due to minor tidal overflow continuing to be possible during morning high tides (remaining around 6.5 feet) and the 2 foot 15-16 second southerly swell continuing to impact the area.
Please continue to monitor the forecast and refer to the Coastal Hazard Product (CFWLOX) for more information.
Ca, Coastal Flood Advisory in effect until 2 PM PDT this afternoon for zones 87-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). Heat Advisory in effect from 10 AM Thursday to 8 PM PDT Saturday for zones 340-341-346-347-349-350-354-355-362-366>368. (See LAXNPWLOX). Beach Hazards Statement in effect until 2 PM PDT this afternoon for zones 349-350. (See LAXCFWLOX). Beach Hazards Statement in effect until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for zones 354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). Fire Weather Watch in effect from Thursday morning through Friday evening for zones 288-354-355-358-362-369>380-548. (See LAXRFWLOX). PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to midnight PDT tonight for zone 673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
