Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard Ca

533 pm PDT Tue may 19 2026

Synopsis

19/114 PM.

Light offshore flow will continue through Wednesday leading to clear skies and warm temperatures. Beginning Thursday there will be a return to cooling May Grey conditions which will last through the weekend.

Short Term

(tdy-Fri), 19/159 PM.

Very little change to the previous forecasts through the rest of this week. Temperatures will peak Wednesday, generally 1-3 degrees warmer than today, except around 5 degrees warmer in the Antelope Valley. Light offshore flow will start the day but will turn onshore by afternoon or sooner at the coast. Warmer valleys will reach the lower 90s while areas towards the coast will be in the 70s and 80s. These are roughly 5-10 degrees above normal.

While the upper level pattern remains more or less the same through the rest of the week, the primary change will be the reversal from offshore to onshore flow beginning Thursday which will bring temperatures back down to near normal levels by the weekend. This will also coincide with a return of the marine layer, as early as Thursday in some areas but possibly not til Friday or Saturday for the valleys.

One exception to this may be southwest Santa Barbara County where a 2-4mb offshore gradient during the overnight hours will likely create nightly Sundowners with winds gusting between 25 and 40 mph at times, particularly Wednesday and Thursday nights.

Long Term

(Sat-Tue), 19/209 PM.

The rest of the 7 day forecast into early next week is very benign as the baggy trough will persist with moderate to strong onshore flow through the period. This is likely to maintain temperatures near to slightly below normal temperatures with a steady dose of night and morning low clouds and fog covering most coast and valley areas.

And once again there is the possible exception across southwestern Santa Barbara County where offshore flow returns Monday night with gusty north winds at times.

Aviation

20/0032z.

At 2342Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 700 ft deep, with an inversion up to 1600 ft with a temperature of 23 C.

High confidence in CAVU TAFs. There is a 20% chance of 6SM FU at KVNY due to Sandy Fire from 02Z-06Z Wednesday.

KLAX, High confidence in the 00Z TAF. VFR conditions are expected. However, there is a 20% chance of MVFR VSBYs in HZ 11Z-16Z Wednesday. There is a 15% chance of east wind component reaching 7-8 kts from 12Z-16Z Wednesday.

KBUR, High confidence in the 00Z TAF. No wind issues expected.

Marine

19/203 PM.

For the Outer Waters, high confidence in current forecast. Today through Friday, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels, except for localized pockets of near SCA NW winds during the afternoons and evenings. Chances of issuing an advisory is fairly low.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, high confidence in current forecast. Localized near SCA winds are possible south of Port San Luis Wednesday afternoon through early evening. Otherwise, winds & seas are expected to remain below SCA levels through Friday.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, high confidence in current forecast. Local SCA winds may occur again later today and Wednesday evening off the coast of Point Dume, across the San Pedro Channel, and in the Santa Barbara Channel. Otherwise through Friday, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Ca, NONE. PZ, NONE.

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