25/1217 AM.
Dry conditions are expected through at least Friday with above normal temperatures and gusty Santa Ana winds at times from Tuesday through Thursday. A cooling trend will develop next weekend with areas of gusty north winds.
(tdy-Thu), 25/239 AM.
Not much going on in the short term. At the upper levels, weak ridging will continue over the area with hgts ranging from 580 to 582 dam. At the sfc offshore flow will will continue through the period peaking Wednesday.
There will not be much in the way of clouds today. There will be some patchy low clouds across the LA cst and quite a few clouds in the interior SLO vly including the Paso Robles area. The stronger offshore flow will keep the coasts and vlys clear Wednesday, but the interior of SLO county may well be cloudy again as the offshore flow pushes low clouds into the area from the San Joaquin Vly. Thanksgiving looks cloudy as a grip of mid and high level clouds is forecast to move overhead.
As for winds, there is no upper of thermal support so any winds will have to totally rely on the sfc gradients. There will be some gusty north winds today but with only isolated advisory level gust. The winds will turn NE Wednesday morning and a weak Santa Ana wind event will ensue. The offshore gradients will both be around 5 mb. Again, with no upper support it is unlikely that there will be a need for advisories. Weakening offshore flow on Thanksgiving will likely only produce 15 to 25 mph canyon winds in the morning.
The downsloping offshore flow will bring 4 to 8 degrees of warming to the csts/vlys today. The interior will cool a few degrees as cooler air form the interior advects in. Max temps today will be about 6 degrees over normal across the csts/vlys with plenty of readings in the 70s. Hgts and offshore flow peak Wednesday and this should lead to 2 to 4 degrees of additional warming. This will push most max temps into the mid 70s to lower 80s. The decrease in offshore flow on Thursday along with lowering hgts and the increase in cloud cover will result in 2 to 4 locally 6 degrees of cooling. Despite the cooling most max temps will end up 2 to 4 degrees above normal.
(Fri-Mon), 25/311 AM.
Weak troffing sets up over the area on Friday. The high clouds will move off to the east and it will be a mostly sunny day. The offshore flow weakens to near neutral and this will bring 3 to 6 degrees of cooling to the csts and vlys despite the added sunshine. The added sunshine will bring several degrees of warming to
While there is still some uncertainty with the weekend forecast all mdls are trending drier. At this point it looks like there will be only a 20 percent chc of rain as almost all of the ensembles are showing more of dry inside track of the system. Even if rain does occur rainfall rates/totals will be very low, since the system originated from the interior and has no moisture source. No doubt about the cooling trend as increased clouds, lowering hgts and a return to onshore flow all gang up to lower max temps by 3 to 6 degrees each day. By Sunday max temps will mostly be in the lower to mid 60s across the csts/vlys.
Monday looks dry and windy as north flow sets up behind the departing low. At the same time moderate offshore flow from the north will develop. Increasing hgts and a return to sunny skies will bring a 2 to 4 degree warm up. Max temps will still be 3 to 6 degrees blo normal.
25/1230z.
Around 12Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer. The top of the sfc-based inversion was at 3300 ft with a temperature of 18 C.
High confidence in TAFs for KBUR, KVNY, KPMD and KWJF.
Good confidence in TAFs for KSMX, KSBP and KSBA where there is a 20 percent chc of 2-3SM BR conds through 17Z Tue.
Moderate confidence in TAFs for KOXR and KCMA with a 30 percent chc of IFR cigs/vis through 17Z Tue.
Low to moderate confidence in TAFs for KSMO, KLAX and KLGB. There is a 40 percent chc of LIFR-IFR conds through 16Z. If cigs do arrive, there is a 20 percent chc of 1/4SM VV002 conds through 15Z.
KLAX, Low to moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 40 percent chc of 1-3SM BR BKN002-006 through 16Z. If low clouds do arrive, there is a 20 percent chc of 1/4SM VV002 conds through 15Z. Good confidence that any east wind component will be under 6kt.
KBUR, High confidence in TAF. There is a 10 percent chc of 4SM HZ conds through 17Z.
25/106 AM.
Seas will linger above or near 10 feet more than 20 NM from shore through at leasst mid morning before decreasing to well below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) criteria. Conditions will remain relatively mild nearshore through Thanksgiving week, but there is a moderate chance of north-northeast winds gusting 20-30 knots nearshore from Ventura to Santa Monica Tuesday through Thursday, with strongest winds expected Tuesday night into Wednesday afternoon.
Winds and seas will increase to SCA levels once again across the Outer Waters as early as Thursday night or Friday. Nearshore along the Central Coast and in the Santa Barbara Channel, winds will increase Saturday afternoon and night, to just below SCA levels. There is quite a bit of uncertainty for this weekend, but there is a moderate to high chance of widespread SCA conditions, including nearshore. Seas will likely increase to around 10 to 12 feet across the outer waters, and 6 to 8 feet inside the Southern California Bight. There is a low to moderate chance of widespread Gale Force Winds this weekend.
Ca, Frost Advisory in effect until 9 AM PST this morning for zones 344-383. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 AM PST this morning for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
