23/307 AM.
Dry conditions are expected through at least Friday with temperatures rising to near to slightly above normal.
(tdy-Tue), 23/904 AM.
***UPDATE***
Not much for the update this morning as a quiet weather pattern will continue into the beginning of this week. Dense fog will continue across the Salinas Valley through late this morning. Offshore flow has been trending more onshore and will likely flip to weakly onshore to the east, while offshore flow from the north will continue but be relatively weak. We're looking at several degrees of warming across the interior and a few degrees of warming across coastal valleys. At the coasts, we're expecting a few degrees of cooling.
***From Previous Discussion***
The upper-level low responsible for our active weather the last couple of days is exiting the region and will get absorbed into the northern branch of the jet stream. This will result in the weakening of NE flow over our area. In fact, there may be just enough of an onshore push to allow for the development of low clouds Sunday night into Monday morning across portions of the LA Basin. N-S gradients will remain sufficient enough to keep interior mtn locations slightly above to above normal and breezy at times. Halted downslope warming will result in coastal areas averaging slightly below normal Today, with an additional degree or two of cooling on Monday. In addition, low clouds with patchy fog could develop across the Salinas valley during the early morning hours.
A relatively fast-moving weak upper level trough will move across the far northern portion of the Great Basin. After it passes, the pressure gradients are expected to shift back offshore starting Tuesday. Even with light to moderate gradient values, the lack of upper-level support will make it difficult to reach advisory level winds across the mountainous interior. Better confidence in above normal heights combined with diminished onshore push resulting in a warming trend.
(Wed-Sat), 23/306 AM.
A high pressure ridge along with light to moderate offshore flow will allow temperatures to continue to warm through Thanksgiving. Due to lack of upper-level support, substantial Santa Ana winds are very unlikely. Even across high elevation, wind-prone areas reaching advisory level winds will be a difficult task. Current ensemble suites among several models support this. The most likely solution will be a mild to warm day with clear skies creating the right conditions for a gobblefest on Thanksgiving day.
Still noteworthy amounts of uncertainty regarding the potential for the system next weekend. The 00Z EPS/GEFS/EC-AIFS have shift the trough axis back further east, but the EC-AIFS still is the least enthusiatic. Will have to monitior to see if this starts a trend. The magnitude & position of the Pacific-North American oscillation and the characteristics of the rossby wavelength will have substantial influence in determining the location of trough - and its impacts, if any do occur.
23/0931z.
At 0930Z at KLAX, there was a surface-based inversion. The top of the inversion was 1300 feet with a temperature of 19 degrees Celsius.
For 12Z TAF package, moderate to high confidence in TAF forecasts. Through this evening, high confidence in CAVU conditions for all sites. For tonight, high confidence in KWJF and KPMD, but only moderate confidence in coastal/valley sites as behavior of potential returning marine layer breeds lower confidence.
KLAX, Overall, moderate confidence in 12Z TAF. Through this evening, high confidence in CAVU conditions. For tonight, high confidence in return of CIG and VSBY restrictions, but low confidence in timing (could be +/- 3 hours of current forecasts) and flight category (categories could range from IFR to VLIFR). No significant easterly wind component is expected.
KBUR, High confidence in 12Z TAF. There is a 10% chance of IFR/LIFR conditions developing after 10Z .
23/131 AM.
For the Outer Waters, high confidence in current forecast. A combination of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas will continue through Monday afternoon. From Monday night through Thursday, winds and seas should remain below SCA levels.
For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Through tonight, there is a 30% chance of SCA level winds. For Monday through Thursday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels.
For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Monday night, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. For Tuesday, there is a 30% chance of SCA level northeast winds from Ventura south to Santa Monica. For Wednesday, there is a 50% chance of SCA level northeast winds from Ventura south to Santa Monica. On Thursday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels for all of the southern Inner Waters.
Ca, High Surf Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Monday for zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX). Dense Fog Advisory in effect until 10 AM PST this morning for zone 343. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PST Monday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
