28/257 AM.
A low pressure system will bring cool temperatures and a chance of drizzle or light showers, as well as gusty winds to the beaches, mountains, and deserts through today. A warming trend will begin Friday and continue into next week.
(tdy-Sat), 28/256 AM.
One more day of odd for late May weather courtesy of a late season upper low that is the western part of a CONUS spanning omega block. Mdls are consistent with rotating a decent blob of energy through the Central Coast later this morning into the afternoon. This will bring a near 100 percent chc of rain to areas north of Pt Conception. Most of SLO county will see about a third of an inch of rain today but the coastal foothills north of Morro Bay could see three quarters of an inch total. NW SBA county will likely recieve between a tenth and two tenths of an inch or rain total. The rain chances fall off pretty quickly south of Point Conception. The SBA south coast has about a 50 percent chc of rain today tapering off to 30 percent for VTA county and less than 20 percent for the LA csts and vlys. Rainfall amounts south of Pt Conception, if any, will mostly be a tenth of an inch or less. There is a 5 to 10 percent chc of TSTM this afternoon but the temps aloft seem just a little too warm for that. Otherwise it will be mostly cloudy day with max temps continuing well below normal. The rain and clouds will keep SLO and SBA counties in the lower to mid 60s or 8 degrees below normal for the csts and 10 to 20 degrees for the vlys and interior. South of Pt Conception max temps across the csts/vlys and interior will all be in the mid to upper 60s or 4 to 6 degrees below normal for the csts and 10 to 20 degrees for the vlys and interior.
The well advertised warm up is still on track for Friday and Saturday. The upper low will move out and dry NW flow with riding hgts will follow it into the state. Right now no eddy is forecast and with the marine inversion gone due to the cool air and mixing its likely that there will be few if any morning low clouds at the csts. There will be decent north winds each evening Friday and Saturday with advisories possible for the SW portion of SBA county, the I-5 corridor and the western portion of the Antelope Vly. There will be 3 to 6 locally 8 degrees of warming on Friday followed by an additional 3 to 6 locally 8 degrees (5 to 10 for the interior) on Saturday. This warming will bring max temps to near normal values on Saturday afternoon.
(Sun-Wed), 28/257 AM.
Sunday will be the warmest day of the next 7 as there will be decent offshore flow from the north and only weak onshore flow to the east. Hgts will be near 582 dam and skies will be clear. 3 to 6 degrees of warming across the area will bring max temps into the 70s and lower 80s for the csts and 80s and lower 90s for the vlys.
Saggy-baggy weak troffing will cover the area Monday through Wednesday. Hgts will be decently high, around 586 dam. There will be continued offshore flow from the north in the mornings but it will be weaker than on Sunday. The E/W gradients will return to more June like values with weak onshore flow in the mornings and mdt to stg onshore flow in the afternoons. The marine layer will likely make a comeback but skies should clear by late morning. Max temps will be at the mercy of the sfc gradients right now it looks like there will be 2 to 4 degrees of cooling Monday and 1 to 2 degrees on Tuesday. A few degrees of warming is possible Wednesday. Most max temps away form the near shore areas will be a few degrees above normal.
28/0956z.
At 0832Z at KLAX, there was a 4500 ft deep moist layer with no inversion.
Overall, moderate confidence in TAFs. There is a 30 percent chc of MVFR cigs at all sites other than KPMD and KWJF through 18Z. MVFR cigs are likely through the day north of Pt Conception. Good confidence in rain north of Pt Conception with a 20 percent chc at sites south of Pt Conception 15Z-00Z.
KLAX, Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 30 percent chc of BKN020-025 conds 12Z-18Z. There is a 20 percent chc of -RA 15Z-00Z. Any east wind component will occur 12Z-16Z and will be AOB 6kt.
KBUR, Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 30 percent chc of BKN020-025 conds 12Z-18Z. There is a 20 percent chc of -RA 15Z-00Z.
28/740 AM.
Seas have fallen below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels across the majority of coastal waters. Borderline SCA seas are still lingering across the far northern waters - have extended advisory through 9 AM for PZZ670.
Radar shows a few light showers off the Central Coast. These showers will increase in coverage, lingering through the evening. Mostly focused north of Point Sal, especially nearshore.
Widespread SCA conditions will return Friday afternoon through the weekend, and SCA winds are likely to reach into the inner waters at times. There is also a 30-40% chance for GALE force winds on Saturday through Saturday night.
Ca, NONE. PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect until 8 AM PDT this morning for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
