22/853 AM.
Mostly clear skies with warming temperatures will occur today through Friday. Look for gusty northwest winds this afternoon and evening. A weak storm with light rain is possible sometime this weekend and again the middle of next week.
(tdy-Fri), 22/906 AM.
***UPDATE***
No changes in the forecast this morning. Lots of sunshine but temperatures generally 2-4 degrees below normal. Main thing today is the expectation of gusty westerly winds developing by this afternoon following yesterday's storm. Strongest winds will be in the mountains and coastal areas from Santa Barbara to Malibu and the adjacent coastal waters. Gusts to 35 mph possible in those areas through early evening. Chilly temps overnight with lows mostly in the 40s.
***From Previous Discussion***
The low pressure system that brought rain to the area ydy is pulling out of the state to the NE and brisk westerly flow is setting up over Srn CA. Skies will be mostly clear today save for some mountain clouds. The westerly winds aloft will help drive gusty winds in the Antelope Vly this afternoon and evening as well as bringing stronger than normal westerly sea breezes to the coastal areas. Most areas will see a few degrees of warming today due to the extra sunshine. The Central Coast will be the exception where the enhanced sea breeze will bring a few degrees of cooling.
Overnight the flow will switch to a more northerly direction and there will be gusty north winds through the I-5 corridor and the SBA south coast. Right now it looks like these gusts will come in just under advisory levels.
Thursday will start off with some weak offshore winds enough to chase away any threat of low clouds, but not strong enough to warrant any advisories. Rising hgts, late April sunshine and weak offshore flow will allow combine to bring 3 to 6 degrees of warming to the entire area. Most csts and vlys will see highs in the 70s with a smattering of 80 degree readings in the warmest vlys. Most cst/vly locations will end up a few degrees north of normal.
Weak troffing and a return to onshore flow will bring some coastal low clouds back to the area on Friday morning. Otherwise, it will be a partly cloudy day as some high clouds drift in from the west. The switch to onshore flow will knock 2 to 4 degrees off of the temps across the csts/vlys. The interior, however, will continue to warm.
(Sat-Tue), 22/306 AM.
A very weak system will pass through the center of the state on Saturday. It does not have much in the way of dynamics or moisture and will only bring a slight chc of rain with the best chc over the mtns. Even if it does rain it does not look capable of producing anything more than a tenth of an inch of rain. It will bring plenty of clouds and cooler temps. Max temps should cool 4 to 8 degrees and highs across the csts/vlys will only be in the 60s.
Weak ridging will arrive on Sunday and will bring dry conditions, clearing skies and 1 to 3 degrees of warming.
Mdl consensus begins to fall off on Monday. The general consensus is that there will be a trof to the north of the area and fairly strong SW flow over Srn CA. The GFS is most aggressive with the trof and SW flow and some its ensembles are wet. Still not enough to include rain in the fcst, but still a greater than zero chc. Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy as mid and high clouds stream in with the SW flow. Warm air advection from the SW flow will bring 1 or 2 degrees of warming despite the increased cloud cover.
Not the best mdl agreement on Tuesday, although if you throw out the GFS it is much better. All mdls show an upper low in the general vcnty of Srn CA. All mdls save for the GFS are dry (including the AI-GFS) but quite a few GFS ensemble members are wet and this is enough to force some slight chc pops into the Tuesday forecast. Better confidence that it will be a mostly cloudy day with max temps 3 to 6 degrees blo normal.
22/1523z.
At 1530Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor marine inversion.
Overall, high confidence in 18Z TAF package for most sites. Only exceptions will be KPRB and KSMX. At KPRB, there is a 40% chance that CIG/VSBY restrictions do not develop overnight. At KSMX, there is a 30% chance of CIG/VSBY restrictions in the 09Z-16Z time frame.
KLAX, High confidence in 18Z TAF. No significant easterly wind component is expected.
KBUR, High confidence in 18Z TAF.
22/823 AM.
For the Outer Waters, high confidence in current forecast. For today, northwest winds will increase to Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels and remain at SCA levels through Friday evening. Additionally, there is a 20% chance of GALE force winds tonight, south of Point Conception. For Saturday through Sunday, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels.
For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, high confidence in current forecast. Today through Friday, SCA level northwest winds can be expected, mainly in the afternoon and evening hours. For Saturday and Sunday, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels.
For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. For today, high confidence in westerly winds increasing to SCA levels across all of the southern Inner Waters. For Thursday through Friday, there is a 60-80% chance of SCA level winds across the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel with high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels elsewhere. For Saturday and Sunday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels across all of the southern Inner Waters.
Ca, NONE. PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Thursday for zones 650-655-670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
