16/859 AM.
A few degrees of cooling are expected today with temperatures returning to normal over the weekend. Morning low clouds and fog will return to many coastal areas by Friday and each day through early next week.
(tdy-Sun), 16/140 PM.
Another hot day with temperatures 7-15 degrees above normal. However, onshore trends began today and the sea breeze has been able move in earlier and stronger resulting in 2-5 degrees of cooling area-wide today.
More significant cooling, roughly 5-10 degrees, expected Friday as a trough develops over the Pac NW further increasing onshore flow. Highs expected to be within a few degrees of normal in most areas except the far interior areas where highs near 100 are still expected for another day. And likely some increase in morning low clouds and fog for coastal areas.
Temperatures over the the weekend are expected to be near or even slightly below normal, though the remnants of TS Elida will be moving north-northwest which likely will increase humidities as PW's increase back to near 1.50". With that in mind there is a 5-10% chance of a shower or thunderstorm by Sunday over the mountains.
(Mon-Thu), 16/155 PM.
Temperature trends remain pretty flat through Monday or Tuesday then models indicate a slow increase in high pressure next week with weakening onshore flow Wednesday through Friday which would result in a warming trend. There is roughly a 50-70% chance of highs in the lower 100s in the warmer valleys by Wednesday and around a 20% chance of 105. Downtown has around a 30-40% chance of reaching 90 by next Wednesday or Thursday while the deserts have a 60%-80% chance of at least lower 100s.
There is another tropical storm behind Elida next week but for now the upper level pattern favors a more westerly trajectory which would result in fewer impacts locally.
16/1743z.
At 1617Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1300 ft deep. The top of the inversion was at 2800 ft with a max temperature of 26 C.
High confidence in VFR TAFs for KPRB, KBUR, KVNY, KPMD & KWJF.
Moderate confidence in remaining 18Z TAFs. Timing of CIG/VSBY restrictions may be off +/- 2 hours and flight minimums by one category.
KLAX, Moderate confidence in TAF. Arrival and clearing times of CIGs near 009 (+/- 300 ft) should be accurate within +/- 2 hours of current forecast. There is a 50% chance east wind component reaches 7-8 knots from 17/08Z-17Z.
KBUR, High confidence in VFR TAF. No wind issues expected.
16/1242 PM.
Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level northwest winds across the Outer Waters will continue through Friday and will linger locally into the weekend. The coastal jet across PZZ670 is expected to ramp up again this afternoon and evening which has warranted the issuance of a GALE WARNING for this timeframe. Short-period seas (nearing 10 ft this evening) are expected to continue through at least Friday.
The elevated winds and seas will extend into the western Santa Barbara Channel & especially nearshore waters along the Central Coast this afternoon through late night.
16/1242 PM.
Tropical storm Elida is expected to strengthen to hurricane status and move to the north and west. Another tropical disturbance is expected to strengthen and generally follow the wake of Elida. This activity will occur over the eastern Pacific waters well off the coast of Baja California.
These southerly swells will propagating northward and will begin affecting our south-facing beaches by Sunday. This activity will likely persist through the week. Another peak could occur late next week due to strong storms across the southern Hemisphere adding to the mix - Potentially more significant hazardous beach conditions.
Ca, Extreme Heat Warning in effect until 8 PM PDT this evening for zones 38-88-349>353-356>358-368>375-378>383-548. (See LAXNPWLOX). Heat Advisory remains in effect until 8 PM PDT this evening for zones 87-341>345-347-348-354-355-362-366-367-376-377-549-550. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect until midnight PDT tonight for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Saturday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
