Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Francisco CA

1022 pm PDT Thu apr 25 2024

Update

Issued at 808 PM PDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Radar depicting a few scattered showers moving through the Bay Area and Central Coast this evening. Mostly very light and short- lived as seen thus far. Beyond the current precip moving through, really don't expect too much in the way of additional rainfall overnight outside of a stray light shower or two, in additional to areas of coastal and mountain drizzle as we head into Friday morning. Overall amounts this evening will be just a smattering of one to a few hundredths here and there.

Synopsis

Issued at 200 PM PDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Cool temperatures will continue today. A cold front will bring a chance for light rain beginning tonight, with strong winds Friday night. Increasing sunshine will kick off a warming trend Sat-Tue.

Aviation

(06z TAFS) Issued at 1022 PM PDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Generally MVFR to mid-level ceilings as a front passes through the region. STS has cleared out behind the cloud shield, but satellite imagery is showing expanding stratus to the north, resulting in low confidence for clear skies through the night. Mid-level to MVFR ceilings and scattered -DZ expected to continue through at least the next few hours. Updated model output showing earlier clearing times Friday morning, but confidence in clearing time remains low. Breezy westerly winds continue overnight with strong gusts building through Friday in the post-frontal environment.

Vicinity of SFO, MVFR ceilings continue through at least 12Z with breezy west winds. Low confidence in clearing time Friday morning, but VFR conditions expected by the afternoon. Breezy west-northwest winds continue overnight and build through Friday. Gusts up to 30-35 knots on Friday afternoon, monitoring possible gusts above 35 knots but at this time, probabilities are low (10-20%).

SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals, Generally MVFR conditions with -DZ possible overnight, clearing late Friday morning. Breezy west winds building through Friday, gusting up to 20-25 knots in the afternoon.

Marine

(tonight through next Wednesday) Issued at 1022 PM PDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Breezy northwest winds through Friday morning, most notably south of Point Sur. Winds strengthen to become strong and gusty into Friday afternoon with gale-force gusts likely near the Big Sur coast. These strong and gusty northwesterly winds last through the weekend and into at least the early portion of next week, bringing hazardous conditions for small craft vessels. Moderate period northwest swell will continue to move through the waters this weekend, with a new longer period northwest swell train entering the waters Sunday. Light, long period southerly swell continues through end of forecast period.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Ca, none. Pz, small craft advisory from 9 am Friday to 3 am PDT Saturday for mry bay-pigeon pt to pt pinos 0-10 nm-pt arena to pt reyes 0-10 nm-pt reyes to pigeon pt 0-10 nm.

small craft advisory until 3 am PDT Friday for pt pinos to pt piedras blancas 0-10 nm.

small craft advisory from 3 pm Friday to 3 am PDT Saturday for pigeon pt to pt pinos 10-60 nm-pt arena to pt reyes 10-60 nm.

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