A cold front with limited moisture will and cross the region this morning. High pressure builds back into the area from the north this afternoon and eventually slides offshore this weekend.
Until 6 pm this evening As of 1010 AM Thu, Cold front is now well offshore with broad northeasterly flow in place across the region under clear skies. Latest HRRR conditions to advertise a risk of isolated showers will be possible across eastern NC, particularly along and south of Highway 70 where the gradient will remain weak and allow a sea breeze to form and move inland during peak heating. Convergence with the sea breeze and the developing post frontal northerly flow combined with diurnal heating should be enough to trigger isolated showers as CAPE values of 250-300 J/kg are forecast. Any showers should rapidly dissipate by early evening with the loss of heating and the increasing post frontal northerly flow finally extending into southeast NC.
Shallow fog early this morning will dissipate rapidly after sunrise as the front sweeps through and northerly winds increase. Temps will continue warm inland with highs in the mid to upper 70s but will be cooler, only around 60 along the northern Outer Banks in onshore flow. N to NE winds will be gusty along the coast following the passage of the cold front this afternoon into this evening.
6 pm this evening through 6 am Friday As of 345 AM Thursday, Sfc high pressure ridges in from the north tonight resulting in cooler air moving into the area. Guidance is beginning to indicate that an area of low stratus will develop along and just off of the Outer Banks by early evening then drift westward and inland across portions of eastern NC tonight. Right now most areas east of Highway 17 should become mostly cloudy overnight with the possibility that these clouds could extend further west into the coastal plain. Areas along the coast will experience gusty winds with lighter northerly breezes inland. Lows will range from the upper 40s inland to the mid 50s immediate coast.
Friday through Wednesday As of 400 AM Thursday, Fairly quiet stretch in the long term with high pressure dominating the region.
High pressure will remain near the eastern seaboard through the end of the work week, aided by omega blocking aloft. Low moving through the eastern US in the weekend will encounter this stubborn high, and some uncertainty remains if it will be pushed north around the high, or if the high will give way. If the low moves north, we will have less chances of precip in the weekend. If the low is able to shift the high offshore, we will see increased chances of precip. No mentionable PoPs with this update for Saturday as high remaining stubborn looks to be the most likely outcome. High will shift to our south in the weekend, and easterly flow will gradually veer to become southwesterly at the start of next week. Another frontal system will be moving through mid week next week. How the high behaves will play a role on how far south the higher moisture along the cold front extends. As of right now, looks to be mostly dry with higher precip chances expected in farther north than eastern NC. Tuesday and Wednesday will be the warmest days of the long term (mid-upper 80s inland), aided by SW flow with the surface high to our east over the Western Atlantic Ocean.
14z Thursday through Monday Through tonight As of 640 AM Thursday, A brief period of occasional sub VFR conditions will occur through 12Z this morning in shallow fog which will rapidly dissipate as heating commences. Vfr conditions will occur for the most of the remainder of the TAF period though an isolated afternoon shower will be possible. Late this evening through the overnight hours there will be a good potential for IFR ceilings as low clouds spread west from the coast tonight.
Friday through Monday As of 4 AM Thursday, VFR conditions will persist through Monday with high pressure prevails over the region.
Through tonight As of 640 AM Thursday..SCA's continue in effect for the sounds and coastal waters today and tonight for gusty post frontal northerly winds. Early this morning the cold front was located over the central Outer Banks and will begin moving southeast across the southern waters this morning. Ahead of the front W to SW winds were 5-154 kt. Behind the front winds will shift to the N to NE and increase to 15-25 kt this afternoon and tonight. Seas currently 3-5 ft will build to 4-7 ft tonight.
Friday through Monday As of 410 AM Thursday, Surface high pressure over the Northeastern U.S. Will nose south over the waters on Friday as a weak boundary remains south of the area. The ridge will shift off the coast on Saturday allowing flow to become more easterly, then eventually southeasterly by Sunday morning. A new surface ridge will develop across the Southeastern states and shift off the Carolina coast by Sunday afternoon, shifting winds southwesterly and persisting SW through Tuesday.
NW winds will diminish below SCA levels Friday, though seas will linger at or above 6 ft through much of the day for the coastal waters. May see SCAs persist until Friday evening for the central coastal waters, Oregon Inlet to Ocracoke Inlet. Winds and seas subside below SCA levels for the weekend into early next week with generally good boating conditions anticipated.
Nc, beach hazards statement until 8 pm EDT this evening for ncz203- 205. Marine, small craft advisory until 5 am EDT Friday for amz131-230-231. Small craft advisory from 2 pm this afternoon to 10 am EDT Friday for amz135. Small craft advisory until 11 am EDT Friday for amz150. Small craft advisory until 11 pm EDT Friday for amz152-154. Small craft advisory until 5 am EDT Friday for amz156-158.
