Showers will spread south and east across the area this morning with precipitation amounts decrease from north to south. There will be strong south winds along and below the desert slopes of the San Bernardino County mountains through this morning with gusts to 55 to 65 mph. The winds will diminish during this afternoon and evening. For Thursday through Saturday, there will be warming with a slight chance of showers, mostly for the mountains, around Thursday night into Friday. Chances of precipitation will increase on Sunday and Sunday night with widespread precipitation, moderate to heavy at times, for Monday through Wednesday of next week.
For extreme southwestern California including Orange, San Diego, western Riverside and southwestern San Bernardino counties,
(today through Friday), Showers will move southward and eastward across the area this morning. For Orange and southwestern San Bernardino Counties, rainfall will range from 0.50 to 0.75 inch near the coast to 1 to 1.5 inch on the coastal slopes of the mountains with locally greater amounts. Amounts will decrease from north to south with around 0.25 inch over southern San Diego County.
Peak hourly rainfall rates of around 0.50 inch early this morning across Orange, southwestern San Bernardino, and northwestern San Diego Counties will diminish to 0.25 to 0.33 inch after 7 AM, then continue to diminish through the morning as the showers move to the east and south.
The snow level will rise to 7000 to 7500 feet this morning, then fall to around 6000 feet this evening. There could be 4 to 8 inches of snowfall in the San Bernardino County mountains, mostly above 8000 feet.
Strong south winds will continue along and below the desert slopes of the San Bernardino County mountains through this morning with gusts of 45 to 55 mph and isolated gusts to 60 to 70 mph on the lower desert slopes of the mountains.
High temperatures will be cooler today with high temperatures around 5 degrees below average for the valleys, mountains, and inland Orange County with high temperatures in the upper 50s to mid 60s for the coast and valleys and in the lower to mid 70s for the lower deserts.
There will be drying and warming for Thursday and Friday. There are smaller chances for some additional light precipitation, mostly for the mountains, for Thursday night into Friday with additional rainfall mostly 0.10 inch or less. With the warming, Friday high temperatures will be a few to around 5 degrees above average, mostly in the mid 60s to lower 70s for the coast and valleys and in the mid 70s to around 80 for the lower deserts.
(Saturday through Tuesday), Saturday will be dry with warming of a few to around 5 degrees for the mountains and deserts. High temperatures on Saturday will be a few degrees above average near the coast to around 5 degrees above average for inland areas with high temperatures ranging from the 60s near the coast to the upper 60s and lower 70s for the valleys and inland Orange County with the lower deserts in the upper 70s to around 80.
Low pressure will develop off the California coast on Saturday with chances of precipitation increasing across southwestern California on Sunday and Sunday night. Monday through Wednesday will be cooler with high temperatures around 10 degrees below average for inland areas, locally 15 degrees below average for the higher mountains. High temperatures on Tuesday will be mostly in the lower 60s for coastal areas, in the 50s and lower 60s for the valleys, and in the 60s for the lower deserts. The snow level will fall to 4500 to 5000 feet for Tuesday and Wednesday.
The greatest model consensus for widespread heavier precipitation across southwestern California is on Monday. There will be additional chances for heavier precipiation for Tuesday through Thursday, but with less agreement on which days might have the heavier precipitation. For Lytle Creek, on the coastal slopes of the eastern San Gabriel Mountains (west of the Cajon Pass), NBM daily chances for 3 inches or more of rainfall are greatest on Monday at 30 percent, falling to 27 percent on Tuesday, then 11 percent on Wednesday and 7 percent on Thursday.
From early Monday morning to early Thursday morning for Big Bear, NBM has a 78 percent chance of 18 or more inches of snowfall. For the San Bernardino County mountains above 7500 to 8000 feet, the chance for 3 feet or more of snowfall for early Monday through early Thursday is around 70 percent. For the highest peaks in the San Diego County mountains, NBM has around a 60 percent chance for 8 inches or more of snowfall.
111030z. A band of RA moving through vcnty KSNA/KONT will continue eastward and through vcnty KSAN 14-16Z. Cigs reduced to 1500-2500 feet MSL with vis 1-5SM within this band. Conditions will lift and improve after 13Z vcnty KSNA and after 17Z vcnty KSAN. Strong southwest winds continue along the northern slopes of the San Bernardino Mountains into the High Desert through 20Z. Wind gusts 35- 50 kts with isolated gusts to 60 kts will produce MOD-STG up/downdrafts in lee of ridges along with patchy reduced vis 3-5SM in BLDU in the desert. Mountains mostly obscured through 17Z. ISO- SCT -SHRA will continue after 17Z mainly inland and in mountains, especially in San Diego County. Some scatter out expected along the coast after 22Z. Gradual and more full scatter out from northwest to southeast after 02Z overnight into Thursday.
Conditions will be hazardous to small craft, particularly at the San Diego Bay entrance this morning through 8 AM today. See the Small Craft Advisory for more details. Winds will diminish and turn westerly thereafter. No additional hazardous marine conditions are expected through Sunday.
Increasing westerly swell will lead to elevated surf of 3-6 feet, with localized sets to 7-8 feet, highest in southern San Diego County. Surf will diminish tonight and Thursday.
Ca, High Wind Warning until 1 PM PST this afternoon for Apple and Lucerne Valleys-San Bernardino County Mountains.
PZ, Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM PST this morning for Coastal Waters from San Mateo Point to the Mexican Border and out to 10 nm-Waters from San Mateo Point to the Mexican Border Extending 10 to 60 nm out including San Clemente Island.
