Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Diego CA

752 am PST Fri Jan 23 2026

Synopsis

Scattered showers will continue into Saturday. The greatest coverage and amounts, though light, are expected across San Diego County with additional rainfall in the San Diego County mountains of one-tenth to one-qquarter inch. Dry weather with a gradual warming trend is expected for Sunday through Wednesday. There will be lower inland humidity with Santa Ana winds for late Saturday night through Sunday afternoon mostly gusting to 45 mph or less with easterly winds continuing into Monday with the winds a little stronger on Monday.

Discussion

For extreme southwestern California including Orange, San Diego, western Riverside and southwestern San Bernardino counties,

Short Term

(today through Sunday), A closed low pressure system will move southward today, then eastward on Friday moving inland through central Baja on Friday night. Scattered showers will continue at times over southwestern California into Saturday. While the greatest coverage and amounts are expected across San Diego, additional rainfall for today through Saturday for San Diego County is only expected to range from less than one-tenth inch near the coast to one-tenth to one- quarter inch in the mountains. Snow levels will fall from around 8000 feet today to around 7000 feet for late tonight and around 6500 feet on Saturday.

A low pressure system moving southward through the Great Basin will bring cooling on Saturday. The deserts will continue to cool on Sunday. Offshore flow will bring gusty east to northeast Santa Ana winds along and below the coastal slopes of the mountains for late Saturday night into Sunday afternoon with the stronger gusts mostly 45 mph or less. Ensemble output from the ECMWF shows the offshore winds continuing into Monday with ensemble output for Campo having stronger winds on Monday than Sunday, though still mostly weak to moderate strength.

With the offshore flow on Sunday, high temperatures on Sunday will be around 5 degrees warmer for the coast and valleys. High temperatures on Sunday will be mostly in the 60s for the coast and valleys with the warmer temperatures in the upper 60s to around 70 in the western valleys and inland coastal areas.

Long Term

(Monday through Thursday), Offshore flow may continue to strengthen into Monday, then weaken on Tuesday with onshore flow returning around Thursday. Warming will spread inland for Monday and Tuesday with not much change on Wednesday. Onshore flow will begin to spread cooling inland on Thursday. High temperatures for Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the mid to upper 60s near the coast and mostly in the lower to mid 70s for the valleys and inland coastal areas.

Aviation

231600z, Multiple cloud layers 800-1200 ft, 2500-3500 ft, and 5000- 8000 ft MSL through the region, along with vis 2-6 SM in BR. Lower cigs and lower vis will improve through 18Z as SCT-OVC cigs lift to 4000-6000 ft MSL. Iso -SHRA continue into tonight, bringing intermittent MVFR cigs and lower vis 6 SM or less. Widespread cigs lower again Sat evening to 2000-3000 ft MSL.

.Deserts, BKN clouds around 7000-12000 ft MSL and VFR conditions expected through the period.

Marine

No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Tuesday.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Ca, None. PZ, None.

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