The warming trend will continue into the weekend with high temperatures on Saturday for inland areas around 8 to 12 degrees above average. This will be followed by a slow cooling trend into the middle of next week with high temperatures for next Wednesday around 5 degrees above average. This will be followed by a warming trend through the end of July into the first weekend in August.
For extreme southwestern California including Orange, San Diego, western Riverside and southwestern San Bernardino counties,
500mb analysis reveals the subtropical ridge remains in dominant control over the southwest US today. Temperatures today continue to be well above average, with further warming expected for Saturday. Temperatures peak this weekend with high temperatures about 10 degrees above normal. Slightly elevated moisture is also limiting overnight cooling and keeping low temperatures quite mild as well. This is bringing widespread moderate HeatRisk and locally major HeatRisk in and west of the mountains, with widespread major HeatRisk in the deserts. The Extreme Heat Warning and Heat Advisory remains in effect through Monday evening and contain specifics on temperatures.
This dominant upper level high pressure slowly drifts east and gradually weakens into Tuesday, bringing a relative cooling trend with high temperatures near 5 degrees above normal for Tuesday. Ensembles are in fairly good agreement that the ridge will restrengthen after Wednesday and move westward with the center near Las Vegas for late next week. High temperatures on Wednesday will range from the mid 70s to around 80 near the coast to the mid 90s to 102 for the Inland Empire with 108 to 112 for the lower deserts. This will be followed by a warming trend through the end of July into the first weekend in August.
241000z. Coast/Valleys, VFR and SKC through this evening. Low clouds based 1000-1400 ft MSL return to coastal areas starting 04- 06z Sat in San Diego County and 06-09z in Orange County. Clouds push up to 15 miles inland by 12z with relatively uniform coverage. Minor vis reductions (3-6SM) along elevated coastal terrain and western valleys. Clouds scatter back to the coastline by 16-17z.
Mountains/Deserts, VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period. Cumulus building over the mts Friday afternoon AOA 10k ft MSL.
Calm conditions over the next week with waves 2 to 4 feet and afternoon wind gusts near 15 kts or less.
A 3 foot southerly swell with 12 second periods will continue to bring elevated surf 4-6 feet with sets to 7 feet to beaches through Sunday. Highest surf is expected along south-facing beaches. On Sunday, a 2 foot, long-period southwesterly swell will replace the current swell, keeping surf around 3-5 feet with sets to 6 feet. By mid-next week, a reinforcing 3-4 foot southerly swell will elevate surf once again, especially along south-facing beaches. High rip current risk will last through the upcoming week.
In addition to elevated surf, tides are expected to increase today near 5.5 feet, increasing to 6.0 to to 6.5 feet MLLW by Sunday. The combination of surf and tides will result in minor coastal flooding during high tides.
Ca, Beach Hazards Statement through Sunday evening for Orange County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.
Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Monday for Orange County Coastal Areas-Orange County Inland Areas-Riverside County Mountains- San Bernardino County Mountains-San Diego County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Valleys-Santa Ana Mountains and Foothills.
Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM PDT Monday for Apple and Lucerne Valleys-Coachella Valley-San Bernardino and Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire-San Diego County Deserts- San Diego County Mountains-San Gorgonio Pass near Banning.
PZ, None.
