The cooling trend will continue into the weekend with increasing clouds. Some lighter rain could occur for late Thursday night into Friday from the coast to the mountains. There are greater chances for heavier rainfall for Saturday night into Sunday with the most likely time for the heaviest rainfall late Saturday night. Then warmer and drier for next week. Tides will remain elevated through much of this week with near record water levels resulting in coastal flooding.
For extreme southwestern California including Orange, San Diego, western Riverside and southwestern San Bernardino counties,
, UPDATED AVIATION, MARINE, AND BEACHES DISCUSSIONS,
(today through Friday), The cooling trend will continue into the weekend with high temperatures on Friday as much as 10 to 15 degrees below average for the mountains. High temperatures on Friday for the coast and valleys will be mostly in the mid 60s to lower 70s with the mountains in the mid 40s to mid 60s. Clouds will increase with a slight chance for lighter showers from the coast to the mountains for late Thursday night into Friday morning. The chance for more than 0.10 inch is highest for San Diego County from the coast to the mountains, but still only 10 to 20 percent.
(Saturday through Tuesday), A subtropical low pressure system will move inland into southwestern California for late Saturday into Sunday. The trend is for greater rainfall for much of southwestern California from the coast to the mountains. Some lighter showers could develop for Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. The greatest potential for heavier rainfall is for late Saturday night.
Through Sunday, the ECMWF AIFS ensemble output only has 15 percent of members with less than 1 inch of rainfall for San Diego with the greatest rainfall for the east-west mountain ranges from Ventura County to southwestern San Bernardino County. For Saturday night through Sunday afternoon, the ECMWF Extreme Forecast index has increased rainfall across San Diego County to between the 80th and 90th percentile.
It will be dry with warming for next week with high temperatures for next Tuesday a few degrees above average for coastal areas with inland areas around 5 degrees below average. High temperatures for next Tuesday for the coast and valleys would be mostly in the 70s, for the mountains in the mid 40s to mid 60s, and in the lower deserts around 80.
281130z, SCT-BKN high clouds above 20 kft today and tonight. Patchy and intermittent low clouds based around 1500-2000 feet MSL most likely around KSNA through 16Z. A greater chance of cigs based at 1800-2000 feet MSL, but still random and intermittent, after 04Z tonight, extending inland overnight into Thursday.
No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Saturday. A storm system arriving Saturday night and Sunday could generate hazardous wind and sea conditions.
High tides during the late mornings will generate significant coastal flooding this week. Tides will be anywhere from 1.4 to 1.6 feet above astronomical predictions, bringing high tides to 7.7-7.9 feet through Thursday. A Coastal Flood Warning remains in effect through Thursday afternoon and contains more details. A storm system will bring increased surf on Sunday. Stay tuned for updates.
Ca, Coastal Flood Warning until 1 PM PDT Thursday for Orange County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.
PZ, None.
