Ation discussion for 00Z TAFs,
This afternoon, Offshore flow continues, with surface pressure gradients -7.4 SAN-TPH and -2.7 SAN-DAG resulting in wind gusts of 35-40 mph in the wind-prone areas along and below the coastal slopes of the Santa Ana Mountains and San Bernardino County mountains. The winds will weaken through this evening. Weak offshore gradients, dry conditions inland and overnight drainage winds will inhibit the return of marine layer low clouds/fog tonight into Sat morning. High temperatures for the coast and valleys will warm about 4 to 8 degrees today while the deserts cool by about 5 degrees. High temperatures for today will range from around 70 near the coast to the 70s to around 80 for the valleys and inland Orange County with the lower deserts in the lower to mid 80s.
The closed upper low that was off the west coast of Baja has moved east and become an open wave over central Baja giving SoCal dry northwest flow aloft ahead of a building ridge over the eastern Pacific. This ridge will shift eastward over CA bringing us generally warmer weather for the weekend. Temperatures on Saturday will rise anywhere from a degree or two near the coast to 5 to locally 10 degrees for the deserts. The mountains and deserts will warm by another 5 degrees or so on Sunday, with the coast and western valleys cooling by a few degrees as onshore flow strengthens. High temperatures on Sunday will be 5 to 10 degrees above average, ranging from around 70 near the coast to the upper 70s to mid 80s for the Inland Empire with the lower deserts in the lower to mid 90s.
Onshore flow will strengthen further on Monday spreading cooler marine air farther inland, giving us high temperatures a few to around 5 degrees above average. It will also bring a return of marine layer low clouds and fog during the nights and mornings.
A low pressure system moving into California around late Tuesday/early Wednesday will bring cooler and breezy conditions along with a slight chance of showers. High temperatures for next Wednesday will fall to around average near the coast to 5 to locally 10 degrees below average for the mountains. High temperatures for next Wednesday will range from the mid to upper 60s near the cast to the lower to mid 70s for the Inland Empire with the lower deserts in the lower to mid 80s. Numerical models are in fairly good agreement through Tuesday with respect to the evolution of the low pressure system. Although the chance for precipitation cannot be eliminated, a slim majority of ensemble members across model platforms favor a dry solution as the closed upper low is now projected to move inland to our north.
The upper level trough axis will move inland on Thursday but we will remain under a broad trough of low pressure aloft as a reinforcing shortwave trough embedded in the northwest flow aloft brings additional cold air into CA. Inland temperatures will likely remain near or below seasonal averages from Wed through Fri.
Offshore flow will bring warming for the coast and valleys today. North winds along and below the coastal slopes of the Santa Ana Mountains and San Bernardino County mountains were gusting 35 to 45 mph this morning but will weaken through this evening. Inland areas will warm through the weekend while coastal areas begin to cool on Sunday as onshore flow returns. Onshore will begin to strengthen and spread cooling inland on Monday as a low pressure system moving into California brings cooler and breezy conditions for the middle of next week.
For extreme southwestern California including Orange, San Diego, western Riverside and southwestern San Bernardino counties,
, Updated aviation discussion for 00Z TAFs,
This afternoon, Offshore flow continues, with surface pressure gradients -7.4 SAN-TPH and -2.7 SAN-DAG resulting in wind gusts of 35-40 mph in the wind-prone areas along and below the coastal slopes of the Santa Ana Mountains and San Bernardino County mountains. The winds will weaken through this evening. Weak offshore gradients, dry conditions inland and overnight drainage winds will inhibit the return of marine layer low clouds/fog tonight into Sat morning. High temperatures for the coast and valleys will warm about 4 to 8 degrees today while the deserts cool by about 5 degrees. High temperatures for today will range from around 70 near the coast to the 70s to around 80 for the valleys and inland Orange County with the lower deserts in the lower to mid 80s.
The closed upper low that was off the west coast of Baja has moved east and become an open wave over central Baja giving SoCal dry northwest flow aloft ahead of a building ridge over the eastern Pacific. This ridge will shift eastward over CA bringing us generally warmer weather for the weekend. Temperatures on Saturday will rise anywhere from a degree or two near the coast to 5 to locally 10 degrees for the deserts. The mountains and deserts will warm by another 5 degrees or so on Sunday, with the coast and western valleys cooling by a few degrees as onshore flow strengthens. High temperatures on Sunday will be 5 to 10 degrees above average, ranging from around 70 near the coast to the upper 70s to mid 80s for the Inland Empire with the lower deserts in the lower to mid 90s.
Onshore flow will strengthen further on Monday spreading cooler marine air farther inland, giving us high temperatures a few to around 5 degrees above average. It will also bring a return of marine layer low clouds and fog during the nights and mornings.
A low pressure system moving into California around late Tuesday/early Wednesday will bring cooler and breezy conditions along with a slight chance of showers. High temperatures for next Wednesday will fall to around average near the coast to 5 to locally 10 degrees below average for the mountains. High temperatures for next Wednesday will range from the mid to upper 60s near the cast to the lower to mid 70s for the Inland Empire with the lower deserts in the lower to mid 80s. Numerical models are in fairly good agreement through Tuesday with respect to the evolution of the low pressure system. Although the chance for precipitation cannot be eliminated, a slim majority of ensemble members across model platforms favor a dry solution as the closed upper low is now projected to move inland to our north.
The upper level trough axis will move inland on Thursday but we will remain under a broad trough of low pressure aloft as a reinforcing shortwave trough embedded in the northwest flow aloft brings additional cold air into CA. Inland temperatures will likely remain near or below seasonal averages from Wed through Fri.
180000z, Mostly clear and VFR conditions expected regionwide through most of tonight. North to northeast winds gusting 20-35 kts through mountain passes and locally into valleys will continue to calm through about 02Z. Patchy low clouds around the coast early Saturday 10-16Z, but any cigs would be brief and isolated, based around 1000 feet MSL.
No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Tuesday.
Ca, None. PZ, None.
