Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Diego CA

202 am PDT Thu apr 16 2026

Synopsis

Mid and high clouds will increase today with slightly cooler high temperatures and southwest to west winds for the mountains and deserts gusting to 35 to 45 mph during the afternoon and evening. The flow will turn offshore on Friday with warming for the coast and valleys and continued cooling for the deserts. There will be north winds along and below the coastal slopes of the mountains, peaking Friday morning with gusts to 35 to 45 mph. For the weekend, weaker winds and warmer inland with Sunday high temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above average. Some time during the early to middle part of next week, a low pressure system will move into California bringing cooler and breezy weather with a less than 20 percent chance of precipitation.

Discussion

For extreme southwestern California including Orange, San Diego, western Riverside and southwestern San Bernardino counties,

Short Term

(today through Saturday), A low pressure system moving inland to the north will strengthen the onshore flow across southern California today into this evening while a low pressure system passing by to the south brings an increase in mid and high clouds today into this evening. High temperatures for today will be a few degrees cooler. Southwest to west winds for the mountains and deserts will strengthen today with gusts to 35 to 45 mph during the afternoon and evening.

For late tonight and Friday, the lower-level flow across southern California will turn offshore. Gusty north winds will strengthen for late tonight into Friday morning with gusts to 35 to 45 mph near and below the Cajon Pass, along and below the coastal slopes of the Santa Ana Mountains, and in northern and eastern portions of the Coachella Valley. High temperatures on Friday will warm around 5 degrees for the coast and valleys and cool around 5 degrees for the deserts. High temperatures on Friday will be mostly in the 70s for the coast and valleys to around 80 for the western valleys and inland coastal areas with high temperatures for the lower deserts in the lower to mid 80s.

Winds will weaken on Saturday and high temperatures for inland areas will warm 5 to locally 10 degrees with high temperatures ranging for the lower 70s near the coast to the lower to mid 80s for the Inland Empire with the lower deserts around 90.

Long Term

(Sunday through Wednesday), The warming will continue for inland areas on Sunday with high temperatures on Sunday 5 to 10 degrees above average for most areas. Sunday high temperatures will range from the lower 70s near the coast to the lower to mid 80s for the Inland Empire with the lower to mid 90s for the lower deserts.

For Monday through Wednesday, a low pressure system will move toward the California coast and inland into California with continued model differences with the timing as well as with the weakening that may occur as it moves inland. For southwestern California, it will be cooler and breezier. NBM chances for measurable precipitation remain less than 20 percent and are greatest for late Monday night into Tuesday morning.

Aviation

160930z, Coast, Patchy low clouds will gradually increase through 16Z with bases around 1000-1600 feet MSL, but cigs still random and intermittent. Any cigs will scatter out 16-17Z.

Valleys/Mountains/Deserts, Strong southwest to west winds are expected 18-06Z with gusts up to 30 to 40 knots. MOD up/downdrafts in lee of mountains, along with local BLDU in deserts. Winds to shift to offshore (northeast) after 06Z tonight in the coastal foothills and into the northern Inland Empire, increasing Friday morning.

Otherwise, BKN high clouds AOA 20000 feet MSL decreasing after 00Z. VFR conditions expected today through tonight.

Marine

No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Monday.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Ca, Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 2 AM PDT Friday for Apple and Lucerne Valleys.

PZ, None.

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