Isolated to scattered light showers will continue this morning, mainly along and west of the mountains. Another band of light to moderate precipitation will move through later this evening into Monday. There is a 15-30% chances of light showers Tuesday into Wednesday. Drying out with slight warming as high pressure finally returns late week into next weekend.
For extreme southwestern California including Orange, San Diego, western Riverside and southwestern San Bernardino counties,
Today through tomorrow,
The first major shortwave associated with the overall longwave trough over the western states has already moved over the region with just a few lingering showers and/or drizzle for locations west of the mountains. The secondary wave will begin to push through by later in the day and keep the possibility of showers continuing on into tomorrow morning as it does. There will also be strong and gusty winds as the trough propagates overhead by later this morning and throughout the evening for the typical areas prone to strong winds, such as through Cajon and Banning passes, and across the higher terrain, although these gusts are primarily expected to remain below Wind Advisory criteria. As an associated boundary pushes through by later in the afternoon and through the evening, there will be another developing line of showers along the leading edge, which will give some areas an additional 0.25-0.5" of rain as it does, and then there will be more showery precipitation behind this line. There is very low confidence of a thunderstorm or two, given that the best factor that may contribute to convective initiation is an area of MUCAPE between 250-500 J/kg in the mid- layers, which is mainly south of the San Diego area. These showers will continue into the overnight hours and then begin to taper of f during the morning tomorrow as the main axis of the trough moves east of the region. Onshore winds will also continue to weaken going into tomorrow, with the colder air advection keeping temperatures on the cooler side, and perhaps even a degree or two cooler tomorrow than high temperatures today.
Tuesday through Saturday,
As the positvitely-tilted trough continues to slowly propagate over the region from west to east, and slightly deepen as it does, it will allow for yet another shortwave trough embedded within the longwave to begin to deepen over the outer waters of the SoCal bight, although models continue to trend too far southward going into Wednesday to be of any impact to our area, although there still could be potentially some areas of precipitation for the southern areas of San Diego County is it propagates to the south and east before the overall longwave trough eventually moves out of the region and allows for a ridge to begin to build back in by later this week, although models are still quite ambiguous with the progression of this and therefore there is still quite some uncertainty with this and then it will continued to be monitored. This pattern will help to keep temperatures on the cooler side under influence of this longwave trough as it slowly moves in over the west coast region through the middle of the week, but then be followed by a warming trend beginning by Thursday and going into the following weekend, with even perhaps a return to mild Santa Ana conditions beginning by later in the evening on Saturday, as models allude to at this time.
041200z, A swath of light to moderate showers stretching from San Diego northward though the Inland Empire continues to gradually push eastward this morning. Antecedent CIGs are generally around 1500-2500ft MSL, however in areas of -RA to RA, CIGs may fall down to 500-1000ft MSL with VIS 3-6SM. These showers will continue to decrease in coverage through 16-18z, though VCSH returns to Orange County and the northern Inland Empire for the afternoon. CIGs should gradually improve with the departure of this morning's showers, eventually lifting to closer to around 2500ft MSL, with many spots scattering out the lower CIGs for VFR conditions in the mid afternoon. MVFR CIGs are set to return again this evening as another round of rainfall pushes in after 02z Monday. As with this morning, IFR CIGs/VIS to 500-1000ft MSL and 2-4SM expected in areas of RA/BR.
Low desert regions remaining mostly dry through the period, with a low (20%) chance for -SHRA late Sun. Otherwise, SCT-BKN 3500-4500 ft MSL this morning and high clouds 10-15k ft MSL building through the day.
No hazardous marine conditions expected through Thursday.
High tides of 6.5 to 7 feet this morning could lead to minor coastal overflow/flooding for beaches and flood-prone beach lots and walkways. Highest daily tides fall below 6.5 feet by Monday morning, and continue to gradually decrease through the week.
Surf increases today as an elevated westerly swell arrives (250 degrees of 4-5 feet with a period of 13 seconds). Breaking waves of 4 to 6 feet with sets to 7 feet expected, primarily on west- northwest facing beaches. This will lead to hazardous swimming conditions and contribute to potential coastal flooding. Surf decreases Monday but remains elevated in the morning.
A Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect for these hazards and contains more details.
Ca, Beach Hazards Statement through Monday morning for San Diego County Coastal Areas.
Beach Hazards Statement until 10 AM PST this morning for Orange County Coastal Areas.
PZ, None.
