Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Diego CA

849 am PDT Sat aug 19 2017

Synopsis

Fair and mild weather will continue this coming week, but with a warming trend next weekend. Coastal clouds will continue nights and mornings. Monsoon moisture will bring a small chance of showers to the mountains and high desert Monday.

Discussion

For extreme southwestern California including Orange, San Diego, western Riverside and southwestern San Bernardino counties,

Coastal clouds made it into the corners of the Inland Empire this morning and the cloud deck itself is thicker. That will mean a slower clear out this morning than we've had lately. A weak low pressure trough off the coast will sit and spin for a few days. On Sunday and Monday the southeast flow in front of the trough will draw monsoon moisture out of Sonora and Arizona into southeast California, specifically nosing into San Bernardino County. The moisture and instability are sufficient on Monday to forecast a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the mountains and deserts, mainly north of San Diego County. This guidance is backed off from what I saw yesterday. The low pressure trough will also deepen the marine layer and extend coastal clouds a little farther inland Sunday and Monday mornings. Most of the coastal basin will get filled. Temperatures will be mild for mid-August through most of next week. The low pressure trough weakens Tuesday and Wednesday before lifting out Thursday and Friday. The resulting higher pressure aloft will bring a warming trend Friday and Saturday along with a shallower marine layer.

Aviation

191530z, Coast/Valleys, Stratus with bases 1200-1600 ft MSL and tops near 3000 ft MSL continue up to 25 to 30 miles inland through late this morning. 2-4 SM VIS in BR expected where low clouds intersect higher terrain. Low clouds clearing to the coast 17-19Z. Stratus redeveloping along the coast after 20/00Z with bases near 1200-1800 ft MSL and spreading into the valleys overnight.

Mountains/Deserts, Mostly Clear skies and unrestricted visibility through Sunday.

Marine

No hazardous marine weather is expected through Wednesday.

Beaches

A 2-3 ft/14-15 sec period swell from 200 degrees will continue through the weekend, producing surf of 4 to 5 ft north of Carlsbad. Strong rip currents will accompany the surf. High tides each evening will peak around 6.5-6.8 feet, possibly leading to minor tidal overflow. A Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect through Sunday evening.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Ca, Beach Hazards Statement from 5 PM PDT this afternoon through Sunday evening for Orange County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.

PZ, NONE.

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