Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Diego CA

1103 am PDT Fri may 15 2026

Update

Ation/marine/beaches discussion,

.SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday), High temperatures for the deserts will warm a few degrees today with not much change elsewhere. The marine layer will continue to deepen early this morning with coastal low clouds extending onto the lower coastal slopes of the mountains this morning.

For the weekend, onshore flow will strengthen across southern California. The marine layer will continue to deepen through the weekend with night and morning coastal low clouds extending well inland and onto the coastal slopes of the mountains. There will be periods of gusty southwest to west winds for the mountains and deserts for Saturday afternoon into Sunday evening with gusts to 40 to 50 mph and WITH isolated gusts to 65 mph.

With the cooling, high temperatures for Sunday will be as much as 4 to 8 degrees below average for the mountains and inland valleys. For Sunday, high temperatures will range from the mid to upper 60s near the coast to the 70s for the Inland Empire with the upper 80s to mid 90s for the lower deserts.

Synopsis

Slight inland warming for today, then cooler for the weekend for inland areas with stronger onshore flow. The marine layer will deepen during the weekend with night and morning coastal low clouds extending well inland and onto the coastal slopes of the mountains. For Saturday afternoon into Sunday evening, southwest to west winds for the mountains and deserts will gust to 40 to 50 mph with isolated gusts to 65 mph. The coast and valleys will warm on Monday with the greater warming for inland areas for Tuesday through Thursday.

Discussion

For extreme southwestern California including Orange, San Diego, western Riverside and southwestern San Bernardino counties,

, Updated Aviation/Marine/Beaches discussion,

Short Term

(today through Sunday), High temperatures for the deserts will warm a few degrees today with not much change elsewhere. The marine layer will continue to deepen early this morning with coastal low clouds extending onto the lower coastal slopes of the mountains this morning.

For the weekend, onshore flow will strengthen across southern California. The marine layer will continue to deepen through the weekend with night and morning coastal low clouds extending well inland and onto the coastal slopes of the mountains. There will be periods of gusty southwest to west winds for the mountains and deserts for Saturday afternoon into Sunday evening with gusts to 40 to 50 mph and WITH isolated gusts to 65 mph.

With the cooling, high temperatures for Sunday will be as much as 4 to 8 degrees below average for the mountains and inland valleys. For Sunday, high temperatures will range from the mid to upper 60s near the coast to the 70s for the Inland Empire with the upper 80s to mid 90s for the lower deserts.

Long Term

(Monday through Thursday), The coast and valleys will warm on Monday with winds for the deserts becoming northwesterly. For Tuesday through Thursday, high temperatures for inland areas will warm. High temperatures on Thursday will be within a few degrees of average for the coast and valleys and around 4 to 8 degrees above average for the deserts and lower elevations of the mountains. High temperatures for Thursday of next week will range from around 70 near the coast to the upper 70s to mid 80s for the Inland Empire with the upper 90s to 102 for the lower deserts.

Aviation

151800z, Coast/Valleys, Low confidence in complete clearing at the immediate coast this afternoon, any lingering clouds will have bases 2000-3000 ft. Low clouds will push back inland after 01Z Sat and fill in the coastal basin. Bases will be 1500-2500 ft MSL, with the most likely places for the bases to fall below 2000 ft are at KCRQ and near mtn foothills (70 percent). Chances of visibility falling below 3SM is around 70 percent near mountain foothills. Patchy -DZ possible from 09-18Z. Slow clearing expected Sat AM with SCT conditions most likely after 18Z for most locations.

Mountains/Deserts, Elevated westerly wind gusts 25-40 kt after 21z today with MOD up/downdrafts and local LLWS in lee of mountains. Localized areas of BLDU and reduced VIS. Winds will remain gusty through much of Saturday. Otherwise, SKC and VFR expected through the period.

Marine

Gusty westerly winds with gusts 20-30 kt will develop in the outer coastal waters late Saturday afternoon. The strongest gusts will occur near San Clemente Island. Seas of 8-11 feet with a 9-12 second period will generate choppy seas. Winds and seas will diminish through the day Sunday.

Beaches

A westerly swell from 290 degrees with a 9 to 10 second period will bring elevated surf of 4 to 6 feet, sets to 7 feet for Saturday afternoon through Monday morning. Highest surf at west to northwest facing beaches. The combination of elevated surf and high tides of 6.5 to 7 feet will result in minor tidal overflow, especially for beach parking lots and boardwalks. Surf will start to decrease Monday afternoon.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Ca, Wind Advisory from 11 AM Saturday to 11 PM PDT Sunday for Apple and Lucerne Valleys-San Bernardino County Mountains.

Wind Advisory from 2 PM Saturday to 11 PM PDT Sunday for Riverside County Mountains-San Diego County Deserts-San Diego County Mountains-San Gorgonio Pass near Banning.

PZ, None.

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