Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Diego CA

1139 am PDT Sun apr 12 2026

Synopsis

Periods of light to locally moderate precipitation expected through Monday, most widespread today. Dry conditions return Tuesday and will prevail through the rest of the week. Periods of breezy winds expected in the afternoons and evenings through Monday and again mid- week. Near to below average temperatures expected for much of this week with warmer conditions this weekend.

Discussion

For extreme southwestern California including Orange, San Diego, western Riverside and southwestern San Bernardino counties,

The main cold front is making it's way across the Inland Empire and San Diego county as of 11:30 AM. The front is expected to weaken as it continues to move east. Light to locally moderate rain is expected with the frontal passage, with peak rainfall rates 0.20-0.30 inches per hour. A rainfall summary has been headlined on our weather.gov/sandiego homepage to capture the rainfall totals today. After the passage of the front, scattered light to locally moderate showers may develop around the coastal basin this evening into Monday morning. The next shortwave is expected to move across Southern California mid-day Monday which will spark another round of scattered light to locally moderate precipitation. Peak rainfall rates on Monday are expected to be 0.20 inches per hour or less.

At higher elevations in the mountains, snow can be expected. Snow levels are currently around 7500 ft and are expected to drop to 6000 ft by tonight, lingering at 5500-6000 ft on Monday. Around an inch of snow is expected below 7000 ft, with up to 4 inches above 7000 ft. Periods of breezy winds over the mountains and into the deserts is expected through Monday. Peak gust of 35-55 mph will occur in the afternoons and early evenings.

Cooler and dry conditions with weaker winds expected on Tuesday. Another trough of low pressure is expected to dig into the Pacific Northwest sometime Wednesday into Thursday. The broad troughing pattern will keep temperatures near to slightly below average for most locations and increase westerly winds in the mountain and desert again. This low is expected to stay inland, which will keep us dry and bring chances for Santa Ana winds for the end of the week. Weak ridging combined with offshore flow is expected to bring warmer conditions to the area next weekend.

Aviation

121800z, Coasts/Valleys, SCT-OVC clouds based 3-6 kft are moving through the coastal basin as a front progresses through the region. A few narrow bands of showers are moving through SD County and the Inland Empire and will continue progressing southeastward through the afternoon. With -SHRA/SHRA, expect MVFR conditions and brief periods of IFR cigs/vis. After FROPA, winds switch from SW to W and mainly VFR conditions return with bases staying mostly above 3 kft, and remaining SCT-BKN through the remainder of the period. ISO -SHRA activity picks up again tonight after 06z, then becoming SCT SHRA after 14z Monday morning, yielding to brief periods of MVFR/IFR conditions under SHRA.

.Mountains/Deserts, West to southwest winds gusts 30-45 kt to persist in mountain passes, along deserts slopes and locally into the deserts, weakening gradually after 02z this evening, though remaining elevated into Monday morning (20-35 kts) and increasing again into Monday afternoon. SHRA/SNSH activity to slowly taper off this afternoon from north to south, remaining isolated thereafter through Monday afternoon. VIS down to 0-5SM in mtns with FG where clouds and terrain meet; SHSN may reduce vis locally above 6500 ft MSL. Local areas BLDU (vis 3-5SM) expected. Moderate up/downdrafts in lee of mtns.

Marine

Periods of increased northwest winds with gusts 15 to 20 kts, especially near showers, and choppy seas throughout today. Showers taper off Monday.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Ca, None. PZ, None.

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