Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Diego CA

1124 am PDT Mon aug 31 2026

Synopsis

There will be cooling and drying for inland areas for early this week with high temperatures cooling to around 5 degrees below average for inland areas on Wednesday. Southwest to west winds for the mountains and deserts during the afternoon and evening will gust to 25 to 35 mph through mid week. For next weekend, there could be some influx of monsoonal and possibly tropical moisture from an area of disturbed weather well to the south of the southern tip of Baja that may develop this week and track towards the northwest.

Discussion

For extreme southwestern California including Orange, San Diego, western Riverside and southwestern San Bernardino counties,

, UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION,

Short Term

(today through Wednesday), The cooling trend will continue through Wednesday with high temperatures on Wednesday around 5 degrees below average for inland areas. High temperatures on Wednesday will range from the mid to upper 70s near the coast to the mid 80s to lower 90s for the Inland Empire with 100 to 104 for the lower deserts. Patchy night and morning low clouds will spread into portions of the western valleys. Onshore flow will be stronger with southwest to west winds for the deserts onto the desert slopes of the mountains during the afternoon and evening gusting to 25 to 35 mph.

Long Term

(Thursday through Sunday), Low pressure will be centered in the vicinity of the West Coast from the Pacific Northwest into California with high pressure over the central states extending westward into northwest Mexico. An area of disturbed weather well to the south of the southern tip of Baja may develop this week and track towards the northwest.

Depending on the development and track, there could be some influx of at least monsoonal moisture into portions of southern California for next weekend, but more direct impacts from a decaying tropical cyclone are less likely with support of less than 5 percent of ensemble solutions.

Aviation

311800z, Coasts/Valleys, VFR this afternoon. Patchy low clouds based 1500-2000 ft MSL redevelop after 04z. Very patchy coverage through the inland valleys; patchy vis reductions 0-5SM where clouds intersect terrain and locally in elevated valleys. Scatter out 14- 17z.

.Mountains/Deserts, Mostly clear skies today and tonight. Breezy westerly winds mainly through mountain passes and desert slopes 21- 07Z. Gusts 25-40 kts with pockets of up/downdrafts over and in lee of ridges.

Marine

No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Friday, except for gusts around 20 knots expected each afternoon through Thursday in the vicinity of San Clemente Island.

Beaches

A southerly swell from Hurricane Karina will maintain elevated surf on south and southwest facing beaches with sets up to 6 feet today and 5 feet Tuesday. Swells from tropical cyclones will continue to arrive much of this week.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Ca, None. PZ, None.

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