A warming trend will continue into Saturday with tempearatures well above average. Breezy offshore winds will contiue through this period in the mountains and foothills as well. Slightly cooler weather can be expected by Sunday and Monday as a weak area of low pressure moves closer to the region. High pressure regains control by the middle and end of next week, bringing more warm weather with increased Santa Ana winds.
For extreme southwestern California including Orange, San Diego, western Riverside and southwestern San Bernardino counties,
Offshore flow continues and sunny weather will continue today with a noticeably warmer feel. Wind gusts across the mountains and coatal facing foothills are near 25-40 MPH, which will weaken some this afternoon, then return to these speeds this evening into Friday morning. High pressure to our southwest over the Pacific is beginning to strengthen. This weather system will move northward, turning upper level winds eastward. This will favor greater wind speeds across mountains/passes of San Diego and Riverside Counties. Highest winds will occur around sunset Friday evening, continuing a bit weaker Friday night through Saturday with wind gusts 25-45 MPH.
The bigger story will be the heat. The area of high pressure will balloon over the Desert Southwest with 850 mb temperatures peaking near 15C. As the eastern half of the country continues to be in a deep freeze, high temperatures across SoCal will locally go over 15 degrees above average in some areas. Light offshore flow will contribute to the greatest well above normal temperatures in the valleys west of the mountains. Friday and Saturday will see similar temperatures with highs well into the 80s across the Coachella Valley and most valleys west of the mountains. The air mass over the region will be warmest by Saturday, where there is around a 50-50 chance to see highs over 85 degrees from northern Orange County, the western Inland Empire, and foothills of San Diego County (Ontario, Riverside, Anaheim, Poway, El Cajon). It would be quite the interesting day, making our area the warmest spot in all 50 states as multiple inches of snow is anticipated to fall over the Carolinas with even snow flurries as far south as the Tampa Bay region in Florida. Some record high temperatures for the days on Friday and Saturday are possible across some of our cities, including Lake Elsinore, Escondido, and Vista.
A weak low will form to the south, bringing increasing onshore flow and subtle cooling to the area by Sunday and Monday, though temperatures will still be well above normal for early February standards with temperatures remaining near 5 to 10 degrees above normal. This "repreive" will not last long though, as the ridge from this weekend becomes reinvigorated and anomolously strong as it parks itself over the western part of the country by the middle and end of next week. You know what that means, no rain in sight with more warm weather. Nbm forecast points to highs returning into the 80s across inland valleys with highs in the 60s/70s from the beaches into the high desert and foothill regions. Something we will also be watching is going to be the Santa Ana winds. As the area of high pressure moves northward into the Great Basin and Pacific Northwest, an area of low pressure will form to our south. The movement of these systems will act to funnel desert air into Southern California, increasing offshore flow by next Wednesday and Thursday. Model ensemble guidance points to a potential elevated to moderate Santa Ana wind event by this time, where highest winds would be over mountains/passes of San Diego and Riverside Counties.
292130z, VFR conditions and clear skies will continue through Friday. Northeast wind gusts of 25-35 kts will continue in foothills below mountain passes and into adjacent valleys. Winds begin to decrease Friday night.
No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Monday.
Elevated surf will combine with the high tide Friday morning to increase the risk of strong rip currents and minor tidal overflow.
Ca, None. PZ, None.
