Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Diego CA

233 am PST Thu Mar 5 2026

Synopsis

Areas of gusty north winds will develop today and continue into Friday, then become northeasterly and expand southward into San Diego for the weekend with gusts to 45 to 55 mph along and below the coastal slopes of the mountains. A low pressure system centered somewhere off the coast of northern Baja will bring a slight chance of showers for Sunday and Monday. Then dry and warmer weather for the middle of next week.

Discussion

For extreme southwestern California including Orange, San Diego, western Riverside and southwestern San Bernardino counties,

Short Term

(today through Saturday), A coastal eddy and stronger onshore flow has brought deepening of the marine layer to around 3000 feet with widespread coastal low clouds extending inland across most of the coast and valleys. As lower-level flow becomes northerly and strengthens this morning, the low clouds will clear from north to south during the morning. North winds will strengthen along and below the coastal slopes of the mountains in Orange and southwestern San Bernardino Counties today and in the northern and eastern Coachella Valley mostly to the north of Interstate 10 with gusts to 35 to 45 mph at times with isolated gusts to 55 mph.

High temperatures for the deserts into the mountains will cool 5 to 10 degrees today with the coast into the western valleys 5 to 10 degrees warmer than Wednesday. High temperatures today for the coast and valleys will be mostly in the upper 60s to mid 70s with the lower deserts in the upper 70s to around 80. High temperatures on Friday will warm slightly for the coast into the western valleys and cool slightly for the deserts into the mountains.

As the center of a closed low pressure system develops somewhere near or offshore of northern Baja for the weekend into early next week, the lower-level flow across southwestern California will become northeasterly. Northeast winds along and below the coastal slopes of the mountains will expand southward into San Diego with gusts to 45 to 55 mph with isolated gusts to 70 mph for the weekend.

Long Term

(Sunday through Wednesday), That low pressure system will also bring a slight chance of showers at times for Sunday and Monday with the relatively greater chances for showers over the mountains and toward the south across San Diego County. There is still some model spread in the placement of the lower pressure system with cluster analysis showing those model solutions with the placement a little farther west having the greater potential to produce some precipitation across portions of southwestern California on Sunday and Monday. Early next week, that low pressure system is expected to begin weakening and moving slowly eastward and inland with warming and drying for the area for the middle of next week.

Aviation

051030z. Coast/Valleys, Low clouds filling the coastal basin have bases 1200-1800 feet MSL, tops to 2600 feet, and vis reduced 0-5SM in the inland valleys. Scatter out to occur from north to south 15- 17Z. Mostly clear thereafter. Gusts 20-30 kts in northern Inland Empire below mountain passes through 02Z this evening. Areas of LLWS and mod up/down drafts expected.

Mountains/Deserts, Mostly clear and VFR conditions today and tonight. Westerly winds transitioning to northerly this morning: 25- 40 kts with isold gusts to 55 kts through mountain passes and on coastal facing foothills. Areas of LLWS and mod up/down drafts in lee (south of) mountains mainly in SBD County.

Marine

Stronger northwest winds with gusts up to 25 kts will develop today generating choppy and hazardous conditions through this evening. A Small Craft Advisory contains the details. No additional hazardous marine conditions are expected through Monday.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Ca, Wind Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 4 PM PST Friday for Orange County Inland Areas-San Bernardino County Mountains- San Bernardino and Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire-Santa Ana Mountains and Foothills.

Wind Advisory until 4 AM PST early this morning for Riverside County Mountains-San Bernardino County Mountains-San Diego County Deserts-San Diego County Mountains.

Wind Advisory until 6 PM PST this evening for Apple and Lucerne Valleys-San Gorgonio Pass near Banning.

Wind Advisory until 6 PM PST this evening for Coachella Valley.

PZ, Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM PST this evening for Coastal Waters from San Mateo Point to the Mexican Border and out to 10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 10 PM PST this evening for Waters from San Mateo Point to the Mexican Border Extending 10 to 60 nm out including San Clemente Island.

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