Ation and marine discussions for 00Z TAF package,
At 12 PM, breezy easterly winds continued on mountain foothills and below the San Gorgonio Pass with only a few isolated locations seeing gusts over 35 mph. High clouds were streaming east to west across the area due to an upper level closed low west of northern Baja. The low is expected to slowly move northeast maintaining fairly widespread high cloud coverage and bringing a slight chance of showers to the mountains and High Desert into Friday. Any rainfall accumulations will be light with the probability of rainfall totals exceeding 0.10" over 24 hours is 5 to 15 percent, highest in the San Bernardino mountains. Dry conditions will return for the weekend.
Substantial cooling is expected between today and Friday. Highs on Friday near the coast are expected to be 10 to 15 degrees cooler than today with highs further inland expected to be 5 to 10 degrees cooler than today. The cool down will be brief, with warmer conditions expected for the weekend. By Sunday, highs for inland locations will be back to 10 to 15 degrees above average. Along with the warm conditions, weak Santa Ana winds are expected for coastal mountain foothills and below passes. A change in the overall upper level pattern is expected for next week. The effects will be felt as early as Monday, with temperatures expected to be 3 to 5 degrees cooler than Sunday. Further cooling is expected through next week.
A broad troughing pattern is expected to prevail over the West Coast next week. This pattern will bring cooler conditions, the return of onshore flow, and chances of widespread precipitation. About 30 percent of global ensemble clusters have the low in position to bring us precipitation on Tuesday, with more guidance showing wetter solutions for Wednesday and Thursday. Most of the individual ensemble members are indicating mostly light rainfall amounts, with only a few members showing moderate amounts. There remains quite a bit of uncertainty in the details, especially when it comes to the timing of any precipitation. Please continue to monitor the forecast in coming days for more information.
Weakening Santa Ana winds today, with chances of light precipitation mainly for the mountains tonight into Friday. Dry over the weekend with warm conditions and weak Santa Ana winds. Pattern change expected next week, with chances of widespread precipitation.
For extreme southwestern California including Orange, San Diego, western Riverside and southwestern San Bernardino counties,
, Updated aviation and marine discussions for 00Z TAF package,
At 12 PM, breezy easterly winds continued on mountain foothills and below the San Gorgonio Pass with only a few isolated locations seeing gusts over 35 mph. High clouds were streaming east to west across the area due to an upper level closed low west of northern Baja. The low is expected to slowly move northeast maintaining fairly widespread high cloud coverage and bringing a slight chance of showers to the mountains and High Desert into Friday. Any rainfall accumulations will be light with the probability of rainfall totals exceeding 0.10" over 24 hours is 5 to 15 percent, highest in the San Bernardino mountains. Dry conditions will return for the weekend.
Substantial cooling is expected between today and Friday. Highs on Friday near the coast are expected to be 10 to 15 degrees cooler than today with highs further inland expected to be 5 to 10 degrees cooler than today. The cool down will be brief, with warmer conditions expected for the weekend. By Sunday, highs for inland locations will be back to 10 to 15 degrees above average. Along with the warm conditions, weak Santa Ana winds are expected for coastal mountain foothills and below passes. A change in the overall upper level pattern is expected for next week. The effects will be felt as early as Monday, with temperatures expected to be 3 to 5 degrees cooler than Sunday. Further cooling is expected through next week.
A broad troughing pattern is expected to prevail over the West Coast next week. This pattern will bring cooler conditions, the return of onshore flow, and chances of widespread precipitation. About 30 percent of global ensemble clusters have the low in position to bring us precipitation on Tuesday, with more guidance showing wetter solutions for Wednesday and Thursday. Most of the individual ensemble members are indicating mostly light rainfall amounts, with only a few members showing moderate amounts. There remains quite a bit of uncertainty in the details, especially when it comes to the timing of any precipitation. Please continue to monitor the forecast in coming days for more information.
060000z. Coast/Valleys, Low clouds based 800-1500ft MSL will develop after 06Z Fri and move inland in areas, with periods of IFR/MVFR CIGs at coastal TAF sites. Bases are expected to start out on the lower side then gradually rise overnight. Low clouds are expected to be patchy, which may result in periods of scattering out and conditions briefly returning to VFR. VIS generally should be above 5SM everywhere except where clouds intersect terrain. Low clouds scatter out 16-18Z Fri morning, then return after 02Z Sat at 1500-2500 ft MSL.
High clouds AOA 15,000 ft MSL continuing to stream over the area, moving out by 12-18Z Fri. Slight chance of -SHRA mainly over mountains and deserts through about 12Z, except for through 00Z Sat for the San Bernardino Mtns, with cloud bases as low as 8000 feet MSL.
A building northwesterly swell (280 degrees) at 15-16 seconds will bring seas of 6-9 feet in the outer waters near/around San Clemente Island Friday and Saturday. This may also lead to localized steep, rough conditions near the bay entrances, including the entrance to the San Diego Bay/Zuniga Shoal area. Otherwise, no hazardous marine conditions are expected through Tuesday.
Ca, High Surf Advisory from 10 AM Friday to 6 AM PST Sunday for Orange County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.
PZ, None.
