Santa Ana winds expected through Saturday, with the strongest and most widespread winds today. Additionally, moderate to major HeatRisk is expected for coastal areas. Cooler conditions will spread inland Sunday, with greater cooling, increase in westerly winds, and chance of showers for the middle of next week.
For extreme southwestern California including Orange, San Diego, western Riverside and southwestern San Bernardino counties,
, UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION,
Gusty winds are being observed across Southern California, with the strongest winds being observed on mountain foothills and below passes and canyons. Top 3 wind gusts over the past 48 hours were Buckman Springs with a gust of 82 mph, a 80 mph gust in Hellhole Canyon, and a 78 mph gust in Sill Hill. Over the past 12 hours the top 3 wind gusts are Hellhole Canyon, Sill Hill, and Banning with a gust of 73 mph. A more comprehensive peak wind gust report is headlined on our weather.gov/sandiego homepage. Winds have peaked across the area and are expected to begin to weaken through this evening into Saturday. That being said, winds will remain elevated into Saturday especially for places prone to east winds. Peak wind gusts for Saturday will be 35 to 55 mph, with gusts to 60 mph confined to wind prone locations.
Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions will continue through Saturday, though relative humidity values will increase on Saturday. Some influx of moisture from the south will keep relative humidity values above 15% through the remainder of the event. In fact, there is a slight chance of light showers for southern San Diego County Saturday morning, though there is an even lower chance (5-10%) for any wetting rainfall.
High temperatures will peak today, gradually decreasing through the weekend into early next week. By Tuesday, most locations are expected to be running a few degrees below average near the coast to up to 10 degrees below average for inland locations. With those cooling conditions we're monitoring for the potential for elevated westerly winds and precipitation. The most likely time for precipitation looks to be Wednesday and Thursday, but some locations further north have the potential to see precipitation as early as Tuesday afternoon or evening. Precipitation will likely remain light to moderate due to lack of any notable moisture source, though model guidance has trended wetter since yesterday. There is still some disagreement on precipitation amounts. We'll have more details in the coming days.
for extreme southwestern California including Orange, San Diego, western Riverside and southwestern San Bernardino counties,
This afternoon, Temperatures are near or a few degrees higher than at this time yesterday. Today will likely be warmer than yesterday, with high temperatures anywhere from a few degrees above normal in the deserts to as much as 10-15 degrees above normal in the inland valleys of San Diego County. There were patchy marine layer low clouds this morning which have cleared out. Southwest flow aloft ahead of a low pressure system to the northwest has brought a few high clouds today.
Through Monday, The low to the northwest will move southeastward into SoCal by Monday while hurricane Odalys (currently about 950 miles southwest of San Diego) slowly moves north and weakens, becoming a remnant low about 500 miles southwest of San Diego by Monday. The flow aloft will draw mid and high level moisture from Odalys into SoCal, resulting in slight chances for mostly light precipitation Sunday and Monday. The best chances for rainfall accumulations will be in the mountains during the afternoons. This scenario will bring lower temperatures, and Monday is expected to be the coolest day with temperatures near normal in the coastal areas to as much as 10-15 degrees below normal in the mountains. The increasing mid and high clouds could disrupt the marine layer and hinder the formation of low clouds tonight through Monday night.
For Tuesday through the end of next week, The low pressure system begins to move eastward into AZ on Tuesday and high pressure aloft moves into SoCal. This will bring dry and warmer weather with the potential for weak offshore flow on Tuesday and Wednesday. The warming begins on Tuesday and peaks next Saturday with daytime high temperatures up to 7 degrees above normal in the deserts and as much as 10-15 degrees above normal in the low elevations west of the mountains. The lack of mid and high clouds with high pressure aloft could allow the low clouds of a shallow marine layer to return to the coastal areas.
AVIATION, 261800Z, Coast/Valleys, Clouds struggled to push ashore overnight, with only a few intermittent patches of near IFR CIGs observed. All clouds have cleared out or linger well offshore this morning, with VFR conditions expected to prevail into this evening with SCT-BKN clouds filtering in AOA 20k ft. Clouds are expected to be very patchy once again tonight as the marine layer will be inhibited by the cirrus cloud cover. There is a window for intermittent CIGs across San Diego County around 7-11z Sunday before weak offshore winds likely keep clouds over the waters, with a window for intermittent CIGs across Orange County around 10-14z Sunday. Should any CIGs develop, bases will generally 800-1200 ft MSL, with VIS 1- 5SM in BR/FG for elevated coastal terrain.
Mountains/Deserts, VFR prevails with increasing SCT-BKN clouds AOA 20 kft through the period.
MARINE, Increasing confidence in northwest wind gusts of 20-25 knots in the outer waters Monday afternoon and evening. Otherwise, no hazardous marine conditions are expected through Thursday.
BEACHES, Southwesterly swell (3-4 ft at 13 seconds from ~200 degrees) from Hurricane Odalys persists through this weekend, bringing surf of 3-5 feet with sets up to 6 feet, highest along south and southwest facing beaches. The swell from Hurricane Polo (3 ft at 14 seconds from ~170 degrees) increases on Monday. Given this direction, most of San Diego County beaches will be largely sheltered from this swell, but Orange County beaches (especially in north OC) should be impacted. Meanwhile, a northwesterly swell (3-4 ft at 7 seconds from ~290 degrees) arrives late Sunday and Monday. Between these two swells, surf of 3-5 feet with sets to 6 feet looks probable along south/southwest facing beaches with surf 3-5 feet along west-facing beaches through Tuesday. With this elevated surf, there is a high risk for rip currents through Tuesday.
Tides are already observed over 6.2 feet and are expected to gradually increase into early next week, peaking around 6.9-7.0ft for the late-morning high tides on Monday-Wednesday. A Beach Hazard Statement remains is in effect through Sunday night for due to the risk of minor tidal overflow and minor coastal erosion. A Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued, in effect from early Monday morning through Wednesday afternoon to account for the highest tides combining with the expected elevated surf. Primary impacts during the morning high tides Monday-Wednesday will be minor coastal flooding in low lying areas in addition to coastal erosion.
Please note - listed tide predictions have been adjusted to reflect actual measured tide observations.
SKYWARN, Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions.
170000z, Winds will gradually weaken after 00Z, but continue with a slightly more easterly direction. More weakening expected Saturday after 11Z.
Otherwise, SCT high clouds and VFR conditions expected through this evening, with increasing clouds above 10 kft especially near Mexico.
Isolated northeast gusts could exceed 20 knots today into early Saturday. Otherwise, no hazardous marine conditions are expected through Tuesday.
A south swell increasing Sunday and Monday will bring elevated surf of 3 to 5 feet with sets to 7 feet for Monday and Tuesday. While surf and rip currents will be elevated, high tides will not be particularly high, and the threat of coastal flooding is minimal.
Ca, Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Saturday for Orange County Coastal Areas-Orange County Inland Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.
High Wind Warning until 8 PM PDT Saturday for San Bernardino and Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire-San Diego County Valleys.
High Wind Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening for San Bernardino County Mountains.
High Wind Warning until midnight PDT Saturday night for Riverside County Mountains-San Diego County Mountains-San Gorgonio Pass near Banning.
High Wind Warning until noon PDT Saturday for Santa Ana Mountains and Foothills.
Wind Advisory until noon PDT Saturday for Orange County Inland Areas.
PZ, None.
