22/1146 PM.
Skies will be mostly clear today and Friday. Look for warming today then cooling with a stronger sea breeze on Friday. Continued cooling Saturday with a chance of occasional light rain. Warmer Sunday and Monday. Then, another weak storm may bring light rain to the area around Tuesday.
(tdy-Sat), 23/1204 AM.
Weak ridging along with weak offshore flow bring mostly clear skies today along with a warming trend. There will be some light N to NE canyon winds but well below advisory levels. The main effect of the ridge and offshore flow will be the creation of a noticeable warming trend. Most areas will warm 4 to 8 degrees compared to ydy. Most max temps across the csts/vlys will be in the 70s with a smattering of 80 and 81 degree readings in the warmest vly locations.
Overnight the ridge will move to the east and a very weak trof will ride in on its coattails. The offshore flow will weaken and turn onshore to the east. This will likely create some coastal low clouds.
The low clouds will linger through the morning on Friday. Skies otherwise will be partly cloudy as mid and high level clouds stream overhead in the westerly flow. Slightly lower hgts and, more importantly, stronger onshore flow will combine to knock off 2 to 4 locally 5 degrees from the max temps over the csts/vlys. The absence of cool air advection will allow the far interior to warm a few degrees.
On Saturday a 555 dam upper low will swing into SLO county and then move into and through Kern county. The system is not that wet nor particularly dynamic, but will likely bring a few periods of rain to most areas (maybe not the Antelope Vly) from late morning through the evening and overnight hours. There will be likely xtnd period of dry conditions as well. Rainfall amounts will be under a quarter inch and likely a tenth or less. Rainfall rates will also be a non threatening less the a quarter inch per hour. It will be a mostly cloudy day. The clouds, rain, onshore flow and 558 dam hgts will make for a cool day with highs falling 5 to 10 degrees and ending up in the 60s. These max temps are 4 to 8 locally 10 degrees blo normal.
Gusty west winds will develop in the wake of the system in the evening. The Antelope Vly could well see advisory level gusts.
(Sun-Wed), 23/225 AM.
There are enough ensembles that lag the system enough to allow for a slight chc of morning rain. The forecast should be thought of as an "80 percent chc of no rain". Otherwise, the departing system will leave clearing skies and warmer temps in its wake. It will likely be pretty breezy in the afternoon as the onshore push to the east will be approaching 8 mb.
Dry westerly flow will set up over the area on Monday. Enough mid level clouds will drift over the area to make it a partly cloudy day. Max temps will bump up 2 to 4 degrees and max temps will end up in the mid to upper 60s across the csts and lower 70s in the vlys.
The mdls are much less enthusiastic about Tuesday's system and a 20 percent chc of rain might even be generous. The AI mdls are hinting that the best chc of rain will occur in the evening.
For Wednesday, the deterministic GFS and its forecast of a big honking upper low just off the coast has been discounted and prefer the AI-solutions with the less huge upper low further off to the SW. It should be a fairly benign weather day with max temps coming in a few degrees blo normal.
23/0956z.
At 0835Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor marine inversion.
Overall, high confidence in most TAFs. KLGB has a 20 percent chc of MVFR cigs 13Z-16Z. KSMX has a 30 percent chc of LIFR cig/vis 13Z-17Z.
KLAX, Good confidence in TAF. Good confidence that any east wind component will be 5kt or less.
KBUR, High confidence in 00Z TAF.
23/209 PM.
For the Outer Waters, high confidence in current forecast. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels will continue through Friday evening, however winds may drop below advisory levels at times, mainly north of Point Conception during the late morning hours. For Saturday through Monday, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels.
For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Through Friday, there is a 50-60% chance of SCA level northwest winds during the afternoon and evening hours. For Saturday through Monday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels.
For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Through Friday, there is a 60-80% chance of SCA level winds across the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel with high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels elsewhere. For Saturday through Monday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels across all of the southern Inner Waters.
Ca, NONE. PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening for zones 645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT early this morning for zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
