01/1247 AM.
It will be cooler today with a clearing skies. Gusty north to northeast winds will develop tonightand last through Saturday. A moderate Santa Ana is possible Friday and Saturday. Much warmer temperatures with mostly sunny skies are expected this weekend.
(tdy-Fri), 01/203 AM.
A cold front currently over LA county will move out of the area just before dawn. Skies will slowly clear through the day. There is a weak post frontal trof that may bring a brief morning shower to SLO county. The front will bring in a little more cool air than was expected ydy and max temps will fall 2 to 4 degrees despite additional afternoon sunshine. Most max temps will end up in the 60s today across the csts/vlys or 4 to 8 degrees under normals.
There will be increasing offshore flow from the north this evening and overnight. Mtn winds 30 to 40 mph are likely but no advisories are anticipated.
Dry fairly fast moving NW flow will be over the area Thursday. Skies will be sunny. The brisk upper flow will bring gusty winds to the mtns and the Antelope Vly. Most cst/vly locations will see a couple of degrees of warming and this will bring some lower 70 degree readings to the vlys. The interior will cool 2 to 4 degrees as cooler air from the San Joaquin Vly is brought in by the northerly flow.
On Thursday night a good north push arrive and low end advisory gusts of 40-50 MPH across the I-5 Corridor and the Santa Barbara county mountains will likely develop.
Towards dawn the north push will turn to the NE as high pressure builds into the Great Basin. About 5 mb of offshore flow from both the N and E will develop. This rapid increase in offshore flow will likely create low end advisory level gusts from 35 to 45 mph with some local gusts to 55 mph in the mtns. At the upper levels a ridge will build into the state and hgts will rise to 576 dam. Skies will be sunny and this along the rising hgts and offshore flow will kick off a big warm up. Almost all sites will see 8 to 10 degrees of warming with max temps reaching into the 70s and lower 80s, which is about 4 to 8 degrees above normal.
(Sat-Tue), 01/323 AM.
Weak ridging is on tap for the weekend. Hgts will not climb too high, however, only reaching ~576 dam. Offshore flow will remain although it will be weaker than it was on Friday. Skies will be mostly clear through the period. It will be a warm weekend, for sure, with max temp warming and additional 2 to 4 degrees on Saturday. The coastal areas will cool some Sunday as the weakening offshore flow allows for an earlier seabreeze. Inland areas will see another 2 to 4 degrees of warming. Max temps over the weekend will be in the 70s across the csts and lower to mid 80s across the vlys.
On Monday a trof will push the ridge to the east and hgts will fall. The offshore flow turns onshore and this will lead to 3 to 6 degrees of cooling across the board. Despite this cooling max temps will end up 4 to 8 degrees above normal.
There is some disagreement on the upper level pattern on Tuesday. The GFS has more of a trof like pattern while the EC favors ridging. The ensembles lean towards the EC and brings 2 to 4 degrees of warming to most areas.
The AI-GFS is dry through the next 14 days. The AI-EC however does show a system in the area around the 11th. Both mdls continue to indicate continued above normal max temps.
01/1028z.
At 0822Z over KLAX, there was no marine layer nor an inversion.
Moderate confidence in all TAFs cigs and vis will likely vary during the morning hours and clouds and mist form in the wake of last nights rains. There will be ocnl dips in to IFR values. Better confidence in clearing conditions after 18Z. Less confidence in low clouds arrival and hgts after 02/02Z.
KLAX, Moderate confidence in TAF. Cig and vis will vary as clouds and mist form dissipate and reform from the leftover moisture. Good confidence in better conditions 20Z-02Z. Low confidence on timing of lower cigs after 02Z where MVFR conds could arrive as late as 08Z and cigs as low as BKN012. No significant east wind component expected.
KBUR, Moderate confidence in TAF. Cig and vis will vary as clouds and mist form dissipate and reform from the leftover moisture. Good confidence in better conditions 20Z-02Z. Better confidence in TAF aft 20Z.
01/325 AM.
High confidence in winds and seas staying under Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels through this morning. A few isolated post frontal showers could linger through the afternoon north of Pt Concpetion
SCA winds with a chance of low-end GALES is expected to develop for the coastal waters south of Point Conception (including nearshore and the Santa Barbara Channel) this evening and overnight. These winds will become widespread Thursday and will last through Friday morning.
Expecting seas to build quickly on Thursday, peaking Thursday night. Seas could reach SCA levels 10-12 feet over the outer waters and inner waters north of Point Sal. Seas for the southern inner waters could peak around 4 to 7 feet. Wave heights should drop off rather quickly as winds shift to the northeast Friday morning.
Ca, NONE. PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect from 9 AM Thursday to 3 AM PDT Friday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 2 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Friday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 AM Thursday to 11 AM PDT Friday for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 6 PM this evening to 11 AM PDT Friday for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
