23/221 PM.
Dry conditions are expected through at least Friday with temperatures rising to near to slightly above normal. Gusty Santa Ana winds will impact the region at times Tuesday through Thursday.
(tdy-Tue), 23/221 PM.
The remainder of today into Monday evening will boast relatively inconsequential weather. Little change in temperatures is expected tomorrow. A return of some late night to morning coastal marine layer clouds is likely along the Central Coast and Los Angeles County, but dense fog is not expected at the time as the marine layer depth is already nearing 2000 feet at LAX. However, another round of dense fog in the Salinas Valley is likely late tonight into Monday late morning.
The most notable potentially impactful weather in the short term will be the offshore winds across the region from San Luis Obispo County south to Los Angeles County beginning Monday night and continuing into Thanksgiving day, especially the weak to moderate Santa Ana wind event Tuesday through Thanksgiving morning. The recent wetting rains have greatly mitigated the wildfire threat in the area. However, the soils soaked by the rains allows for trees to more easily be knocked over by winds. Always be cautious parking under trees, and be sure to secure those outdoor Thanksgiving decorations.
Moderate northerly winds 20-30 mph will kick things off in LA County Monday afternoon through the I-5 Corridor and into the Santa Clarita Valley. While maintaining a healthy LAX-BFL northerly gradient (5.0-6.0 mb), winds will begin to tilt to the northeast as the LAX-DAG gradient strengthens to around -6mb by Wednesday morning. While upper support will be somewhat limited, the peak surface gradients are enough to warrant a moderate chance for wind advisories to be issued for late Tuesday into Wednesday afternoon across Santa Ana Wind prone areas, although winds may not surface down to the Oxnard plain in this event. In addition to Santa Ana Wind prone areas being impacted, the northerly winds look strong enough to pose a low to moderate chances for wind advisory issuances on the coastal side of the Santa Monica Mountains from Point Mugu to Santa Monica.
As far as winds go in SLO and Santa Barbara counties, the Santa Lucia Winds will be strongest across the Santa Lucia Range and into the interior mountains beginning Monday night and continuing through the week, peaking Tuesday and Wednesday. Winds in the 25-35 mph range will be common, with isolated gusts to 45 mph.
Temperatures will climb to 5-10 degrees above normal in many areas Tuesday and Wednesday, with widespread temperatures in the 70s, even in the coastal areas. Warmest valley locations may even touch the low 80s.
(Wed-Sat), 23/221 PM.
Thanksgiving will begin with Santa Ana winds continuing into the early afternoon hours, albeit a skosh weaker than Wednesday’s peak, peaking in the 20-30 mph range and tapering off by Turkey time. Santa Lucia winds will continue across the aforementioned mountain areas through Friday. As far as high temperatures go, highs will decrease slightly, but most folks across Southwest California will experience highs in the 70s and clear skies.
There is quite a bit of uncertainty regarding the forecast for next weekend as a potential storm system may arrive as early as Saturday. While there is still considerable disagreement amongst the GFS and the EC/ECAIFS plus their ensembles, the EC and the ECAIFS have both trended the upper level trough considerably further to the southwest, resulting in a majority of their ensemble members showing at least some precipitation at some point next weekend. At this point, potential rain totals look quite low due to low PWATs as the upper level trough meandering across the Western CONUS before dropping southwest. On the other hand, the GFS and its ensembles remain much drier, which would certainly result in a dry Santa Ana pattern.
24/0024z.
Around 2325Z, the marine layer depth was around 1400 feet deep at KLAX. The top of the inversion was near 2200 feet with a temperature around 16 degrees Celsius.
High confidence in the current forecast through 04Z, then low-to- moderate confidence thereafter.
VFR conditions are expected through at least 04Z, then there is a high-to-likely chance of LIFR to IFR conditions at coastal terminals. After 13Z, there is a moderate-to-high chance of LIFR to IFR conditions at valley terminals. VFR conditions could develop as soon as 16Z, or as late as 20Z on Monday.
KLAX, There is a 70 percent chance IFR conditions as soon as 07Z. IFR conditions could delay as late as 11Z, then there is a 70 percent chance of conditions improving to MVFR. VFR conditions could develop as soon as 16Z, or as late as 20Z, but there is a 30 percent chance of MVFR visibilities lingering longer into Monday afternoon. An early return of IFR to MVFR conditions should be expected on Monday evening. Any easterly winds will be less than 7 knots.
KBUR, There is a 50 percent chance of LIFR to IFR conditions as soon as 10Z, or as late as 14Z. VFR conditions should develop around 17Z. No wind impacts are expected at this time.
23/219 PM.
For the Outer Waters, high confidence in current forecast. A combination of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas will continue through Monday afternoon. From Monday night through Thursday, winds and seas should remain below SCA levels.
For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Through tonight, there is a 30% chance of SCA level winds. For Monday through Thursday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels.
For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Monday night, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. For Tuesday, there is a 30% chance of SCA level northeast winds from Ventura south to Santa Monica. For Tuesday night into Wednesday, there is a 60% chance of SCA level northeast winds from Ventura south to Santa Monica. On Thursday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels for all of the southern Inner Waters.
Ca, High Surf Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Monday for zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PST Monday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
