15/1110 PM.
Warm but below normal temperatures will continue through Thursday, with expanding coastal morning low clouds. Patchy morning drizzle will be possible during the night into morning hours through Thursday. Temperatures are likely to increase towards the end of the week.
(tdy-Fri), 16/1205 AM.
The marine layer is between 2800 and 3000 ft and marine layer stratus will cover all of the csts and vlys by dawn. Clearing will be on the slow side and some nearshore areas will see no clearing. This deep for September marine layer is the result of mdt onshore flow along with a Catalina Eddy. The lift from the eddy will bring a 10 to 15 percent chc of some morning drizzle as well. The deep marine layer and onshore flow will bring another couple of degrees of cooling to the area. Max temps today across the csts and vlys will only be in the mid 70s to the lower 80s or 4 to 8 locally 12 degrees blo normal.
Not much change on Thursday. An upper low will transverse the far northern CA. It will not have much affect on Srn CA just a few dam of hgt falls and a slight increase in cyclonic turning. Look for another morning of marine layer stratus. Max temps will change little from today.
On Friday the upper low begins to transition to the east but nor fast enough to have any major effect. What will have an effect is the offshore flow from the north that will develop after midnight. this will reduce the marine layer clouds and lead to better and faster clearing. Most max temps will rise 2 to 4 degrees although portions of SLO county will see even more due to some E to W offshore flow up there.
(Sat-Tue), 16/232 AM.
The benign weather will continue through the weekend and beyond.
On Saturday a fast moving pop up ridge will move across the state. Hgts will briefly rise to 588 dam. While mdt onshore flow will continue to the east, there will be weak offshore flow in the morning from the north (turning onshore in the afternoon). There does not look like there will be much of an eddy and there will be less low cloud coverage esp in the vlys.
A weak high hgt (578 dam) upper low moves into the area Sunday and lingers into Monday. It does not have any assoc moisture and will do nothing more than bring an increase in marine layer clouds (perhaps some morning drizzle) and cool temps a couple degrees each day. Max temps will mostly be in the 70s across the csts with 80s in the vlys. These max temps are mostly 3 to 6 degrees blo normal.
The upper low morphs into a pos tilt long wave trof and is draped over Srn CA. Hgts do not change much but the sfc gradients weak considerably. The reduced onshore flow will lessen the amount of low clouds and allow max temps to climb 2 to 4 degrees.
16/0934z.
At 0822Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 2800 feet deep. The top of the inversion was at 5700 feet with a temperature of 18 C.
High confidence in TAFs for KPMD and KWJF.
Moderate confidence in remaining TAFs. Timing of flight cat changes could be off by +/- 2 hours. There is a 15% chance of -DZ 12Z-16Z. There is a 30% chc of no clearing at any given coastal site.
KLAX, Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 30% chance for no afternoon clearing. There is a 15% chance of -DZ 10Z-16Z. There is a 30 percent chc of an 8 kt east wind component thru 16Z.
KBUR, Moderate confidence in TAF. Clearing could be as late as 20Z.
16/224 AM.
High confidence in relatively light winds across all coastal waters through Thursday morning. SCA level NW winds will return to outer waters south and west of Point Sal by Thursday evening. These winds will become fairly widespread across the Outer waters reaching into the nearshore waters along the Central Coast and at least the western portion of the Santa Barbara Channel Friday into the weekend. Peak winds will be much weaker than this past weekend likely topping out 20-25 kt & locally 25-30 kt over climatological favored waters such as near Point Conception.
Ca, NONE. PZ, NONE.
