10/154 PM.
Warm and dry conditions with sunny skies are expected at least through mid week, with breezy northeast winds at times. A noticeable cooling trend will start Thursday, with temperatures falling to near normal by Friday. Rain is expected area wide Friday into early Saturday and again next Monday.
(tdy-Fri), 10/159 PM.
It was another warm day across the southland. Camarillo reached 90 which was the hottest day for the week there but missed a record by 2 degrees. Most other coast/valley areas were in the mid to upper 80s. Expecting one more hot day on Veteran's Day before temperatures begin a rapid cool down Thursday. For those wondering how unusual these temperatures are for this long, it's actually not that rare. We're actually just barely cracking the top 20 where highs were 80 degrees or higher in Downtown LA, the longest being 14 days straight days in 1890, and more recently 7 days in 2008 and 2016.
Starting to finally get a little more clarity at least in the first part of the this next system later this week. It looks like we will have two separate pieces coming through starting Friday morning and a slightly stronger second piece coming through Friday night into Saturday morning. PW's are definitely higher with the second system, reaching close to 1.2", and there could be some brief moderate to heavy rain, but not seeing much of a convective element so overall expecting this first bout to generally be categorized as a beneficial rain for most of the area. Most of the ensembles are keeping rain amounts through Saturday morning under an inch.
Expecting rain to taper off from west to east and likely out of LA County no later than noon and possibly before many wake up.
Snow levels should be at or above 8000 feet.
(Sat-Tue), 10/151 PM.
A brief little high pressure ridge pops up Saturday night into Sunday with no rain expected.
The next system on Monday will be colder and possibly somewhat convective, but also pretty fast moving so expect some changes to the precise timing of it for another day or two. The quick speed will limit rain amounts, but there still could be some brief heavy showers due to instability aloft. Probably under 6 hours of rain at most with this one. Most of the models indicate less than a half inch of additional rain Monday except where there's convection. Some lowering of the snow levels expected Monday but likely not below 7000 feet.
Looks like another storm moving into the area around Wednesday or Thursday but lots of uncertainty in the models on this one.
10/1753z.
At 1654Z at KLAX, there was a weak inversion with a base at 800ft. The top of the inversion was at 1500 ft with a temp of 22 C.
High confidence in VFR TAFs for all sites.
KLAX, High confidence in VFR TAF. Any east wind component is expected to remain below 7 kts.
KBUR, High confidence in VFR TAF. No wind issues expected.
10/131 PM.
For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Seas are still lingering near 10 ft but observations have showed a steady decrease over the last 12 hours. Seas will remain slightly below SCA levels this afternoon through Wednesday. Expecting 10+ ft seas to return Thursday through at least Sunday, with models indicating potential for wave heights 15 to 20+ ft. At this time the peak looks to be Saturday afternoon into early Sunday.
For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Conditions are expected to remain below SCA levels through Wednesday. SCA level seas could return as early as late Thursday afternoon peaking into the weekend.
For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels for the southern Inner Waters through Thursday. SCA winds will then be possible at times Friday night through Sunday, mainly across the Santa Barbara Channel during the afternoon to evening hours.
There is concern for a large westerly swell this weekend which could produce dangerous breaking waves at Ventura and Morro Bay harbor entrances.
There is a chance of showers sometime from Thursday night into the weekend across the coastal waters.
10/218 PM.
A very large, significant long-period northwest swell originating from a strong Aleutian low pressure system will arrive to the beaches this WEEKEND. Impacts will be focused to west-northwest facing shores and is expected to peak Saturday. Significant beach erosion and shallow flooding of sea water over low-lying beach walkways, parking lots, and roads is likely. Especially in the morning hours near high tide. Large surf will create dangerous rip currents. Impacts will be less for south- facing shores.
The highest risk will be along the Central Coast with potential for localized damage to the most vulnerable areas. Oceano Dunes State Park flooding with limited to no vehicle access is likely. If guidance remains consistent, WARNING-level surf is likely and a coastal flood watch may be needed to highlight the moderate potential for WARNING-level coastal flooding.
For LA/VTA west-facing beaches, there is potential for at least advisory level surf and cannot rule out a High Surf WARNING especially for the Ventura coastline.
Coastal hazards are likely to continue well into next week as the northern Pacific remains very active.
Ca, Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Monday morning for zones 87-349-350-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). High Surf Advisory in effect until noon PST Monday for zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ, NONE.
