11/1215 AM.
There will be a slow cooling trend through Sunday. Despite the cooling most max temps will remain above normal through Sunday. Marine layer stratus and fog will return to most beaches today, then will become more widespread with increasing inland extent Friday through the weekend.
(tdy-Sat), 11/1234 AM.
Srn CA will be under a Cull area for the short term with hgts around 589 dam. At the sfc there will be mdt to stg onshore flow both to the N and the E.
Look for the marine layer stratus to increase in coverage and duration through the period with many beaches seeing slow to no clearing on Friday and Saturday.
Most max temps will cool a few degrees today (The far interior will be the exception and will warm a degree or two), but most of SLO county will see double digit cooling as the offshore flow that warmed the area ydy will not occur today. Look for 2 to 3 more degrees of cooling Friday as the marine layer expands and the onshore push increases. Saturday will see little change in temperatures. Despite all of this cooling almost all max temps will remain above normal through the period with only the beaches seeing normal or slightly blo normal temps. In general the csts will see max temps in the 70s and lower 80s, while the vlys will warm into the mid 80s to lower 90s.
The one fly in the forecast ointment comes from the SW flow around an upper high centered over nrn Mexico. This flow pattern will bring some mid level monsoon moisture up into Srn CA. PWAT may climb to near 1 inch later Friday. At this time it looks like the bulk of the moisture and associated afternoon convection will be just south of LA County in Orange County and esp San Diego County. There is, however, a 10 percent chc that enough moisture will creep upward to bring TSTMs to the LA county mtns.
(Sun-Wed), 11/247 AM.
Very June like conditions on tap for the weekend and early next week. Weak high pressure will be overhead with hgts near 591 dam. The mdt-stg onshore flow will continue both to the north and east. This will bring night through morning low clouds and fog to almost all of the coasts and many of the vlys every day.
Look for little or no change in temps on Saturday. On Sunday most areas will cool a few degrees. There will not be much day to day change in temps early next week. Max temps will be near or even a degree or two blo normal across the csts and vlys due to the marine layer and strong onshore flow. The mtns and far interior, however, will end up 5 to 10 degrees above normal due to the higher than normal hgts.
Like Friday, there is a small (5 percent) chance for a shower or thunderstorm over the eastern San Gabriel Mountains Saturday afternoon and early evening.
11/0540z.
At 0501Z at KLAX, the marine layer was about 1800 ft deep. The inversion top was at 3300 ft with a maximum temperature of 23 C.
High confidence in VFR TAFs for KPRB, KPMD and KWJF.
Low confidence in TAFs for KSBP, and KSMX. There is a 20-50% chance for low clouds below 1000 feet and vsbys in BR/FG at each site after 10Z, highest KSMX. If clouds arrive, VLIFR to LIFR conds are most likely min flight cat due to shallow marine layer.
Moderate confidence in remaining TAFs, with high confidence in low clouds tonight through Thursday morning (except moderate KBUR/KVNY). Lower confidence in min flight cat, but IFR to MVFR most likely. Arrival times may be off +/- 2 hours.
KLAX, Moderate confidence in TAF. High confidence in low clouds returning +/- 2 hours from forecast. Lower confidence in cig heights, with a 30% chance OVC007-009. Vsbys likely 6SM or higher, but there is a 25-30% chance for 5SM or lower after 10Z. Any east wind component is expect to be less than 8 kt.
KBUR, Moderate confidence in TAF. Moderate confidence in low clouds arriving +/- 2 hours from forecast. Lower confidence in cig heights, with a 20% chance of OVC004 cigs and vsbys 5SM.
11/249 AM.
Good confidence in Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level seas over PZZ670 and PZZ673, with 10 foot seas lingering through this morning. Southerly winds 10-20 knots are likely early today near Point Conception, expanding north through this afternoon. Then conditions are expected to be relatively mild through early next week for much of the coastal waters.
West to northwest wind gusts 15-20 knots (locally 25 knots) will be common each afternoon Friday and through at least early next week across the nearshore waters south of Point Conception (including the Santa Barbara Channel, San Pedro Channel, and Santa Monica Bay).
10/201 PM.
The long period southerly swell responsible for large and hazardous surf will continue into Thursday, although slightly lower wave heights and periods are expected tomorrow. A relative lull between swells is expected over the weekend, then another long period southerly swell from the Souhtern Hemisphere is forecast to arrive early next week, from a slightly more southwest direction (roughly 220 degrees). Additionally, large tides near 7.5 feet are predicted for Saturday through Tuesday. Although next weeks southerly swell appears to have smaller significant eave heights, the combination of the longer period swell and the high tides may lead to minor to locally moderate coastal flooding for south exposed coasts.
Ca, High Surf Advisory in effect until 8 PM PDT this evening for zones 87-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). Beach Hazards Statement in effect through this evening for zone 354. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 AM PDT this morning for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
