14/946 AM.
High pressure and offshore flow will bring very warm and dry conditions across the region through the weekend. Gusty Santa Ana winds will continue through at least Thursday, mainly across portions of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties. Today and Thursday will be the warmest days with a slow cooling trend starting Friday.
(tdy-Fri), 14/956 AM.
***UPDATE***
Our traditional mid-January warm spell continues as high pressure sits over the West coast. No big changes to the forecast expected. Locally gusty northeast winds will develop at times, strongest in the overnight and morning hours with some advisory level winds at times. A cooling trend will begin in the next couple days but above normal temperatures are expected well into next week.
***From Previous Discussion***
Picture Postcard weather will continue for at least the next three days.
An impressive 590 dam upper high sits over Modoc county in the far NE portion of the state. Ridge extends south over the rest of the state with 594 dam hgts over LA County. At the sfc there is 4 to 5 mb of offshore flow which will likely increase by a mb or two by 7 or 8 am. This will bring one more day of advisory level wind gusts this morning and early afternoon to the areas in the Santa Ana Wind Corridor. It will be a low end advisory, however, with cst/vly gusts around 35 mph and mtn gusts near 45 mph. Max temps will be the main talking point today. Most max temps today will rise 2 to 4 locally 6 degrees making today the warmest day of this little heat wave. Most cst (away from the beaches) and vly areas will end up in the lower to mid 80s with upper 70s closer to shore. These max temps are 10 to 15 degrees above normal.
The upper high meanders up to the NW on Thu and Fri and hgts drop to 580 dam. There is quite a bit of disagreement on the amount of offshore flow on both Thu and Fri. This, of course, affects the wind forecast which also contains a great amount of disagreement. Some solutions show advisory level gusts Thu with a stronger offshore push, while other favor a shot of cold air advection bringing advisory level gusts on Friday. Either way there will be some canyon winds each morning with a 30 percent chc of advisory gusts. Like today, any advisory level gusts will be on the very low end of advisory criteria.
Much better confidence in mostly clear skies and a minor cooling each day. Look for a hard to notice degree or two of cooling each day.
(Sat-Tue), 14/236 AM.
A narrow upper high will sit over the west coast through the xtnd period. The high will weaken and hgts will fall from 580 dam Sat to 576 dam on Tuesday. At the SFC offshore flow will continue but it will be weaker than it is currently and wind advisories are unlikely at this time.
The lowering hgts and decreased offshore flow may allow for the return of some morning low clouds esp along the Central Coast (double esp western SBA county) and the Long Beach/Torrance area.
Max temps will slowly fall through the period. Csts and Vlys will fall from the mid 70s to lower 80s on Saturday to the upper 60s to mid 70s by Tuesday. Despite all of this cooling Tuesday's highs will be 4 to 8 degrees over normal.
The EC-AI is dry through the 26th and then only showers super light rainfall. The GFS-AI shows light precip on the 23rd and 24th but nothing showstopping.
14/1726z.
At 1637Z over KLAX, there was no marine layer. There was a surface based inversion with a top at 1400 ft and a temperature of 25 C.
High confidence in VFR TAFs. Low to moderate confidence in winds for KSBP, KOXR, KCMA, KVNY, and KBUR. Winds will be gusty at times. Moderate LLWS will be an issue at times for KSBP and KBUR. Moderate to occasionally strong turbulence likely over mountainous terrain across the region.
For KCMA and KOXR, winds may vary between westerly and easterly through this afternoon due to the boundary between onshore and offshore flow being on the Oxnard plain, but higher confidence in winds shifting NE by later this afternoon as NE winds will increase across the region.
For KBUR, there is a 30% chance for E to NE winds 15-25 kt surfacing from the mountains any time from 20Z-10Z.
For KVNY, N to NE gusts 20-25 kts may occur any time through 12Z.
For KSBP, there is a 20% chance for brief E to NE winds 10-15 kts surfacing between 00Z and 08Z.
KLAX, High confidence in VFR conditions with any east wind component staying at 6 knots or less.
KBUR, High confidence in VFR conditions. Low confidence on winds. LLWS is likely due to increasing NE winds over the region. There is a 30% chance for E to NE winds 15-25 kt surfacing from the mountains any time from 20Z-10Z, but very low confidence. Moderate LLWS possible at times and moderate to strong turbulence likely over nearby mountains.
14/808 AM.
Moderate risk of NE to E wind gusts of 20 to 30 knots from Ventura through Santa Monica this afternoon through Thursday morning, then again on Friday. These winds may fill more of the Santa Barbara Channel than usual and further out through the west Channel Islands. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) has been issued beginning late tonight and continuing into Thursday afternoon. There is a clear enough lull in winds Thursday afternoon through late night to end the SCA, but another SCA appears likely late Thursday into Friday afternoon. NE wind gusts of at least 10 to 15 knots are also likely off the SLO County Coast and in the San Pedro Channel (including Catalina Island), with a low but non- zero risk of reaching 25 knots. Expect short- period choppy seas with these winds.
A long period west to northwest swell will fill in over the region today and Thursday, but wave heights will stay under 8 feet through at least the weekend.
Ca, Wind Advisory remains in effect until 2 PM PST this afternoon for zones 88-355-358-362-369-371-374>376-378>380. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect until 2 PM PST this afternoon for zones 355-362. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect from midnight tonight to 3 PM PST Thursday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
