07/456 PM.
A warming trend will begin Monday as high pressure starts to nudge into the area from the west. Desert areas will reach triple digit temperatures by mid week. Night and morning low clouds and fog are still expected across most coast and some coastal valleys through the week. skies will clear by afternoon in most areas except some beaches will remain cloudy most of the day. Gusty Sundowners are expected in western Santa Barbara County Monday and Tuesday.
(Sun-Wed), 07/805 PM.
The upper level trough across the PNW responsible for the relatively cooler weather will begin to break down ahead of an upper level ridge gradually building in through mid-week. Widespread warming will initiate Monday and continue through Wednesday. Most notable warming will occur across coastal valleys and interior areas, as coasts will still feel marine influences due to moderate onshore flow. There is some uncertainty, however, regarding how much temperatures will increase near the coasts on Wednesday. Onshore LAX-DAG pressure gradients are projected to drop rapidly to near neutral by Wednesday morning, which would limit most if not all marine influences. This would result in a fairly dramatic increase in temperatures at locations typically moderated by marine air during this time of year. Warmest coastal valleys can expect temperatures to reach the mid 90s by Wednesday, but there remains a low (10 percent) chance for some of the warmest spots to reach 100 degrees. There is a 20% chance for Heat Advisories on Wednesday across some of the warmer valleys, namely the southern Salinas, Santa Clarita, and western San Fernando Valleys.
Wind advisories have been issued for northwest winds across the Santa Barbara Southwest Coast and through the I-5 Corridor for Monday night into early Tuesday morning. Slightly stronger northwest flow Tuesday may prompt more wind advisories, with best chances along the immediate Central Coasts, southwest Santa Barbara County (west of HWY 154), and the interior mountains (especially I-5 Corridor).
(Thu-Sun), 07/209 PM.
Very little change in the weather pattern is expected the latter half of next week as high pressure aloft remains as well as a steady onshore flow. Desert and other far inland areas immune from the marine layer will remain quite hot and may actually warm up a degree or two going into next weekend with around a 25% chance of highs around 105. However, temperatures for coast and coastal valleys should generally remain about the same as steady onshore flow will keep temperatures within around 5 degrees of normal.
07/2319z.
At 2237Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 2000 feet deep. The top of the inversion was 4900 feet with a maximum temperature of 17 C.
High confidence in VFR TAFs for KPRB, KPMD, and KWJF. 10% chance for IFR cigs at KPRB between 10Z-17Z.
Low confidence in TAF for KSBP. 50% chance for no low clouds. If clouds arrive, 50% chance for IFR cigs.
Moderate confidence in remaining TAFs. Good confidence in low clouds arriving, except moderate for KSBP. Timing may be off +/- 2 hours. Good confidence in MVFR conds, except 30% chance for IFR at KSMX.
KLAX, Moderate confidence in 00Z TAF. Timing of flight category changes could be +/- 2 hours of current forecast, but good confidence in MVFR conds being the lowest flight cat with marine layer clouds through the period. Any east wind component is expect to be less than 6 kt.
KBUR, Moderate confidence in 00Z TAF. Timing of flight cat changes may be off +/- 3 hours, but good confidence in MVFR conds with marine layer clouds.
07/814 PM.
For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. High confidence in a combination of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas through Thursday. Moderate confidence in the GALE WARNING over the two northern outer zones through tonight, with a 30-40% chance that the gale force gusts are localized or only occur for a couple of hours. Monday and Tuesday, there is a 30-50% chance of Gale force winds over the southern two outer zones (PZZ-673 and PZZ-676) during the same time period, with the best chances on Monday. SCA winds are likely to persist through Wednesday night, then weakening Thursday through Friday.
For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Through Wednesday, SCA level wind are expected, mainly in the afternoon and evening hours, with seas near or above SCA levels. On Thursday and Friday, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels.
For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. For a majority of the southern Inner Waters, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels through Friday. The only exception will be the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel, where there is a 40-60% chance of SCA level winds Monday and Tuesday, mainly in the late afternoon and evening hours.
07/808 PM.
A long period south swell will move through the waters Tuesday through Thursday, with swell height building to 3 feet nearshore. Periods will initially be 19 seconds, decreasing to 15 seconds by Thursday. Surf is forecast to build to 3 to 6 feet with local sets to 7 feet along south facing shores of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties. There is a chance of more widespread surf of 4 to 7 feet with larger sets, in which case a high surf advisory will be needed.
Hazardous surfing and swimming conditions are expected due to the building surf, along with strong rip currents.
Ca, Beach Hazards Statement in effect from Tuesday morning through Thursday evening for zones 87-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect from 5MARAFDLOX PM Monday to midnight PDT Monday night for zones 349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect from 9 PM Monday to 10 AM PDT Tuesday for zone 378. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM Monday to 3 AM PDT Tuesday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 AM Monday to 3 AM PDT Thursday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Watch in effect from Monday evening through late Monday night for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 8 PM PDT Monday for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
