18/909 AM.
Scattered showers are expected today, mainly south of Point Conception, with a slight chance of thunderstorms and brief heavy rain. Light snow accumulations are possible above 5000 feet. Wednesday will offer a brief respite from the rain. A weaker storm is slated to arrive later Thursday into Friday.
(tdy-Thu), 18/925 AM.
***UPDATE***
While the cold front from this latest storm has passed, the main upper low is on our doorstep, just a short distance west of Pt Conception. It's expected to rotate through the bight region creating little pop up showers and possibly isolated storms. This is a favorable setup for waterspouts so boaters need to be prepared for dangerous conditions. A shower or storm could literally develop anywhere at anytime and drop a brief period of heavy rain and possibly some small hail as well, especially in the foothills and mountains. The snow level will be between 5000 and 6000 feet and a few inches of snow accumulation are possible. At the very least it will be a very cool day with highs in the high 50s or low 60s.
***From Previous Discussion***
As the low marches to the east, the flow turns northeasterly on Wednesday, but the moisture is still around. Would expect a few wrap-around light showers coming from the east and hitting the back side of the mountains.
With snow levels around 5,000 feet, any showers that do develop over the mountains would result in a few inches of snow and some road issues.
The next storm is on track to bring widespread rain Thursday or Thursday Night, with some showers on Friday. There remains a range of outcomes in terms of rain amounts, intensities, and impacts. While this storm will not be nearly as wet as the storm we had this weekend, as mentioned before, it will take less rain than usual to get significant runoff and impacts.
(Fri-Mon), 18/357 AM.
Showers may continue through Friday as the low pressure center associated with the Thursday rain moves through. The most likely outcomes is for rain totals for Thursday through Friday to fall in the 0.5 to 1.0 inch range, with 1 to 2 inches in the favored mountains and hills. There are still about 30% of the projections that favor double those amounts, which includes some of the AI models that have shown some skill with the recent storms.
The vast majority of our projections show a big change in the weather starting this weekend, with drier and warmer conditions through the Thanksgiving holiday week.
18/1749z.
At 18Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer.
High confidence in TAFs for all sites, with periods of MVFR conds as scattered clouds will move throughout the region. SHRA possible at any site, especially KSBA and south through this evening. There is a 20% chance for VLIFR conds at KPRB, KBUR, and/or KVNY 10Z-17Z.
There is a 10-20 percent chc of a TSTM through 21Z KSBA and north and 20-02Z elsewhere.
KLAX, High confidence in TAF. 30% chance of -SHRA through 02Z, with a 10% chance for TSTM 20Z-02Z. Periods of 015-030 cigs possible at any point. No significant east wind component expected.
KBUR, High confidence in TAF. 30% chance of -SHRA through 02Z, with a 10% chance for TSTM 20Z-02Z. Periods of 015-030 cigs possible at any point.
18/823 AM.
High confidence in Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level seas across the waters greater than 10 NM from shore improving through this evening. Conditions will remain relatively calm through Thursday morning. Another storm system will bring elevated seas up to 14 feet across the outer waters and up to 6 feet for the inner water south of Point Conception as early as Thursday afternoon. Seas will improve some but remain at or near SCA levels through much of the weekend across the Outer Waters. Winds will be quite variable directionally as the storm moves into the area, but periods of 20-30 knot winds will be common as early as Thursday afternoon into the weekend.
Nearshore northeast winds of 15-25 knots may surface between Ventura Harbor to Malibu early Friday through Saturday afternoon.
There is a 10-20 percent chance of thunderstorms across the coastal waters through this evening. Any thunderstorms that develop will be capable of producing brief heavy rain, small hail, dangerous cloud to surface lightning, gusty and erratic winds, locally rough seas, and possible waterspouts.
Ca, High Surf Advisory in effect until 10 AM PST this morning for zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX). Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect until 10 PM PST this evening for zones 377-380. (See LAXWSWLOX). PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PST this evening for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
