03/241 AM.
Onshore flow will continue to bring low clouds to the coasts and coastal valleys each night through morning period. Weaker onshore flow will mean decreasing clouds in the valleys and gradually warming temperatures. Expect a return to near-normal temperatures by middle of next week with 80s and low 90s for many valley locations by that time.
(tdy-Sun), 03/751 AM.
***UPDATE***
Latest Visible Satellite imagery shows an typical marine layer stratus pattern over the CWA. Expansive area of high clouds are situated 100 miles to south and is expected to move north later this afternoon into the evening. Current sfc observations fairly calm conditions across the area with only a few stations gusting in the 20s across the Antelope Valley foothills.
Through the weekend, Night through morning low cloud pattern should be fairly similar. Little day to day change in max temperatures being slightly below normal. Gusty afternoon into evening winds expected across the Antelope valley, but winds will remain below advisory levels. Otherwise, the forecast is on track.
***From Previous Discussion***
Hgts will slowly rise from 584 dam to 590 dam over the weekend. The gradient forecast is tricky as all of the mdls have incorrectly forecast the onshore flow which is markedly weak than fcst. This led to warmer than expected temps on Thursday and has greatly reduced the marine layer cloud coverage early this morning. The weaker onshore push should not allow for many clouds to make it into the vlys and have trimmed them back from the fcst. The max temp fcst also is highly dependent on the onshore flow fcst. Adjusted today's fcst to match or exceed ydys values, but there is a fair chc that the interior cst and vlys will be a little warmer than fcst. No matter what the final values are max temps will still remain below normal.
The building hgts should squash the marine layer enough to limit the vly penetration each morning. The evenings should also be clearer as the marine layer clouds will take a while to develop and move inland. Max temps will not warm as much as they might even with the rising hgts as a grip of thick high clouds is forecast to move up and over Srn CA over the weekend and think that max temps will not change much from day to day.
Gusty afternoon winds will continue over the Antelope Vly, but will not reach advisory level save for a few isolated foothill locations.
(Mon-Thu), 03/454 AM.
SW flow aloft Monday will give way to weaker and more zonal flow from Tuesday on as an upper high begins to push in from the S. Hgts will rise from 590 dam to about 594 dam on Wednesday. Hgts may fall slightly on Thursday as a weak trof ripples across the northern half of the state. Mdt to stg onshore flow in the E/W direction is likely to continue through the period. But there will only be weak onshore (perhaps weak offshore in the mornings) flow in the N/S direction. The hier hgts and lack of a decent push to the north will likely confine the marine layer clouds to the csts and its also likely that some coastal areas (best chc SBA south cst) will also remain cloud free.
Given the hgts rises and only weak onshore flow to the north in the afternoons it is likely that there will be a slow warming trend all 4 days. The Stg onshore push to the east in the afternoon will prevent any major warm up but most areas will see 1 to 2 degrees of warming each day. By next Thursday people can expect lower 70 degree readings at the beaches, mid 70s to lower 80s across the rest of the coastal areas and 80s and lower 90s in the vlys. This warming trend will bring max temps up to near normal values.
03/1154z.
At 0832Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1000 feet deep. The top of the inversion was 2000 feet with a temperature of 20 C.
high confidence in KWJF and KPMD.
For remaining sites with no low clouds forecast there is a 25 percent chc of IFR cigs through 18Z.
For remaining sites with low clouds VFR conds could arrive up to 2 hours earlier than fcst. Cigs may vary between 008 and 011.
Very low confidence in CLD fcst aft 04/03Z.
KLAX, Low confidence in TAF. There is a 30 percent chc of OVC008 conds through 16Z. VFR conds could arrive as early as 1630Z or as late as 2030Z. Very low confidence on low cloud return timing aft 04/02Z. No significant easterly wind component is expected.
KBUR, Moderate confidence in TAF thru 17Z with a 25 percent chc of OVC008 conds. High confidence for the rest of the time.
03/221 AM.
For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Through Saturday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels. For Sunday through Tuesday, there is a 50-70% chance of SCA level winds.
For the Inner Water north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Through Sunday, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels. On Monday and Tuesday, there is a 30-50% chance of SCA level winds in the afternoon and evening hours.
For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Through Tuesday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels for most of the southern Inner Waters. The only exception will be the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel where there is a 40-60% chance of SCA level Sunday through Tuesday, mainly in the late afternoon and evening hours.
Ca, NONE. PZ, NONE.
