11/238 PM.
Moderate to damaging coastal flooding will likely continue through at least Tuesday. Periods of light to moderate rain and a low chance of thunderstorms will persist through Monday with below normal temperatures. Beginning Tuesday and continuing through the end of the week, weak to moderate offshore flow will bring warm and dry conditions to the area.
(tdy-Wed), 11/236 PM.
The remnants of tropical cyclone Rachel largely moved out of the forecast area early this afternoon with only a few widely scattered showers leftover in L.A. County. Otherwise, partly cloudy skies covered much of the region this afternoon, except for partly to mostly cloudy skies over L.A. County. Gusty SW winds increased over the L.A. County mtns and deserts as well, and there is a Wind Advisory in effect for these areas thru tonight. Temps turned cooler with highs about 10 deg blo normal across the region. Most coast and vlys will top out in the upper 60s to lower 70s this afternoon.
A sharp upper level trof will move into CA tonight and Mon. This upper level trof will bring additional cooling to the area along with producing chances of showers, and even likely showers for portions of L.A. County thanks to the cyclonic flow aloft and a deep moist layer. About 0.10 to 0.25 inch of rain will be possible for portions of the coast and vlys, except 0.25 to 0.50 inch over L.A. County including the mtns. Higher mtn elevations could even see a couple inches of snowfall.
A drier NW flow aloft will prevail over the region Mon night and Tue. An upper level low will move well E of the region Tue night while an upper level high builds over the E Pac into Wed which will help to bring increasing N to NE winds at lower levels to the forecast area. In fact, strong and gusty NE winds are increasingly likely by Wed morning in the usual Santa Ana wind corridors of L.A./VTU Counties, when Wind Advisories may be needed.
Temps will be about 10-20 deg below normal on Mon, then a warming trend will take place thru Wed when highs will rebound to near normal to slightly below normal.
(Thu-Sun), 11/237 PM.
An upper level ridge will build into nrn CA thru Sat while an upper level low develops S of this high over nrn Baja or just off the coast. This will keep a broad E to NE flow aloft over swrn CA. This pattern is forecast to break down Sat night and Sun with weak ridging aloft over CA developing.
Overall, swrn CA will see dry and warm conditions thru the extended period with offshore flow. There is a decent chance of moderate Santa Ana winds each day across Ventura/LA counties and would not be surprised to see Wind Advisories for the Santa Ana wind corridors especially Fri and Sat.
Temps will warm to as much as 10-20 deg above normal across the region by Fri when highs in the warmest vlys and coastal areas should be well into the 90s.
11/1834z.
At 1753Z at KLAX, there was neither a marine layer nor a marine inversion.
Overall, moderate confidence in TAFs. For this afternoon through tonight, there will be a threat of showers at all sites. Through the TAF period, there will be 30-40% chance of MVFR CIGs at all sites. Additionally, there is a 5-10% chance of thunderstorms through the period.
KLAX, Moderate confidence in TAF. Periods of showers are possible late this afternoon through overnight. There is a 40% chance of MVFR CIGs anytime during the TAF period. No significant easterly winds are expected
KBUR, Moderate confidence in TAF. Periods of showers are possible late this afternoon through overnight. There is a 40% chance of MVFR CIGs anytime during the TAF period.
11/224 PM.
For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Through Monday, high confidence in a combination of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas. On Tuesday, there is a 40-60% chance of SCA level winds, especially around Point Conception. For Wednesday through Thursday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. Seas of 10+ feet will slowly diminish through Monday evening.
For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Through this evening, high confidence in a combination of SCA level winds and seas then dropping below advisory levels overnight. For Monday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. For Tuesday through Thursday, there is a 30-50% chance of SCA level winds in the afternoon and evening hours.
For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Through this evening, high confidence in SCA level winds and choppy seas, then diminishing below advisory levels overnight. For Monday through Wednesday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels for most area, but the only exception is the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel where there is a 50% chance of SCA level winds Tuesday afternoon and evening. On Thursday, there is a 30-40% chance of SCA level northeast winds from Ventura south to Santa Monica.
Periods of light to moderate showers are likely through Monday, mainly during the overnight into morning hours. There is a 10% chance of thunderstorms during the same time frame. While showers or thunderstorms are possible anywhere, the highest chances exist south of Point Conception.
Long period swell from the west and the south are affecting the coastal waters, and can create a confused sea state. This can make boating more challenging and dangerous, especially for small vessels.
11/222 PM.
While the peak timing for the most impactful coastal flooding has passed, there is still a threat of minor to moderate coastal flooding through Tuesday, due to continued high tides and elevated to high surf. The highest tides will occur during the mornings and range from 7.0 to 7.5 feet Monday and Tuesday, with secondary high tides during the evenings (around 6 feet tonight decreasing to 5 feet by Tuesday evening). As for elevated surf, a long period southerly swell and long period westerly swell will impact the coastal waters the next several days, and slowly subside further each day.
All Coastal Flood Warnings have been replaced by Coastal Flood Advisories, with the advisory for the Central Coast continuing until Monday evening, and the rest of the coasts continuing until Tuesday afternoon. High Surf Advisories Ventura and LA Coastal beaches (surf 5-8 feet) continue to be in effect through this evening, while the advisory for the Central Coast beaches (surf 8-12 feet) continue into Monday evening. The Beach Hazards Statement for Santa Barbara South Coast will continue into Tuesday afternoon as well, and is due to elevated surf and minor tidal overflow during high tides (lingering after the coastal flood advisory expires).
Please continue to monitor the forecast and refer to the Coastal Hazard Product (CFWLOX) for more information.
Ca, Coastal Flood Advisory in effect until 2 PM PDT Tuesday for zones 87-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). Coastal Flood Advisory in effect until 10 PM PDT Monday for zones 340-346-349-350. (See LAXCFWLOX). High Surf Advisory in effect until 10 PM PDT Monday for zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX). Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Tuesday afternoon for zones 349-350. (See LAXCFWLOX). High Surf Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening for zones 354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect until 5 AM PDT Monday for zones 378>383. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening for zones 645-650-655-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 5 PM PDT Monday for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
