10/356 AM.
Temperatures will rise to up to 15 degrees above early June normals today. Then highs will remain warm through Friday, except for a large cool down Thursday along the Central Coast. A slow but gradual cooling trend is likely this weekend into early next week. Expect minimal marine layer clouds today and Thursday, before becoming more widespread through the weekend.
(tdy-Fri), 10/917 AM.
***UPDATE***
Northerly winds reached advisory levels once again across the Southwest Santa Barbara Coast, Western Santa Ynez Range, and down the I-5 Corridor last night into early this morning. Winds have since subsided and will remain below advisory levels through the end of the week.
Marine layer cloud coverage was sparse this morning as expected with stratus limited to the LA County Coast and over coastal waters. A rogue patch of stratus was also seen over the Ventura County Mountains. All low clouds seen over LA County and the Ventura County Mountains earlier this morning have since burned off.
The forecast remains on track for a significant warmup today thanks to weakening onshore flow and strengthening high pressure over the region. Afternoon highs will climb to 10-18 degrees above normal for early June. Heat Advisories remain in effect for the interior coasts of Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo Counties.
***From Previous Discussion***
A significant warmup is expected today, as onshore flow weakens and high pressure builds over the area. Breezy offshore winds are expected through this morning across the higher terrain in San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara Counties. As a result of these downsloping winds, the warming temperatures will be most noticeable along the Central Coast. Heat Advisories have been issued for the interior coasts of Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo counties today. High temps are expected to reach 12-18 degrees above normal for the areas in the Heat Advisory, and elsewhere will commonly see up to 10 degrees above normal for early June. While the inland extent of marine layer stratus and fog will be minimal this morning, stratus and patchy fog will remain possible over the immediate coasts and coastal waters.
Warm conditions will continue into Thursday and Friday for most locations with the exception of the Central Coast, where increasing onshore flow will drive a decrease in temperatures to close out the week. There is a low chance (5% chance) of a shower or thunderstorm developing over southern portion of the forecast area, particularly the eastern San Gabriel mountains Friday and Saturday afternoon and evening. PWATs may increase to near 1-inch as a weak upper low is favored to shuttle mid-level moisture into the region from the southeast.
(Sat-Tue), 10/355 AM.
This weekend into early next week, minimal changes in the weather pattern are expected each day. Temperatures will very gradually trend cooler, and consistent onshore flow will maintain areas of marine layer stratus and fog each morning. The synoptic pattern favors moderate riding over the area, thus temperatures inland will be several degrees above normal. Coast and valley areas will be under the influence of the onshore flow and marine layer clouds (nature's air conditioning) thus temperatures will be near (if not slightly below) normal. Like Friday, there is a small chance for a shower or thunderstorm over the eastern San Gabriel Mountains Saturday afternoon through evening.
10/1059z.
At 0719Z at KLAX, the marine layer was about 1500 ft deep. The inversion top was at 2900 ft with a maximum temperature of 21 C.
High confidence in VFR TAFs for KPMD and KWJF, but winds may be off by 5 kt at times.
Moderate to low confidence in remaining TAFs. There is a 20% chance of cigs at KSMO, and KLAX between 13Z-15Z Wed, and a 60% chance at KLGB.
KLAX, Moderate confidence in TAF. Timing of flight category changes could be +/- 3 hours of current forecast, and there is a 20% chance of BKN005 to BKN015 cigs between 13Z-15Z Wed. Any east wind component is expect to be less than 6 kt.
KBUR, High confidence in TAF.
10/854 AM.
Good confidence in Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas over the waters along the Central Coast and out 60 NM from shore (and beyond) through at least tonight, with 10 foot seas beyond 30 NM from shore possibly lingering into Thursday morning. Southerly winds 10-20 knots are likely late Wednesday south of Point Conception, expanding north through Thursday. Then conditions are expected to be relatively mild through early next week for much of the coastal waters.
However, west to northwest wind gusts 15-20 knots (locally 25 knots) will be common each afternoon through early evening Friday through at least early next week across the nearshore waters south of Point Conception (including the Santa Barbara Channel, San Pedro Channel, and Santa Monica Bay).
10/400 AM.
A High Surf Advisory is in effect for beaches along Malibu through Thursday. At 1 PM PDT Tuesday, latest report from Zuma indicated swell height around 7 to 10 feet at 19 seconds. A Beach Hazard Statement remain in effect for the Ventura County Beaches through Thursday evening. A long period south swell will continue to move through the waters Today through Thursday, with swell height building to 3 feet nearshore. Periods around 20 seconds, decreasing to 15 seconds by Thursday. Surf is forecast to build to 4 to 7 feet with local sets to 7 to 10 feet along south facing shores of Los Angeles County Beaches, and 3 to 6 feet for Ventura County Beaches.
Hazardous surfing and swimming conditions are expected due to the building surf, along with strong rip currents.
Ca, High Surf Advisory in effect until 8 PM PDT Thursday for zones 87-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). Heat Advisory remains in effect until 7 PM PDT this evening for zones 341-347. (See LAXNPWLOX). Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Thursday evening for zone 354. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect from 2 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Thursday for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
