13/433 PM.
An offshore flow pattern beneath high pressure aloft will maintain very warm and dry conditions across the region through the weekend. Gusty Santa Ana winds will continue through at least Thursday, strongest near and below passes and canyon during the late night and morning hours. The warmest day is likely to be Wednesday, then a gradual cooling trend is expected through early next week.
(Tue-Fri), 13/832 PM.
***UPDATE***
A high amplitude ridge of high pressure will remain over the West Coast through this coming weekend. At the surface, high pressure over the Great Basin and lower pressure along the Southern California coast will maintain offshore pressure gradients between LAX to Daggett. The resulting Santa Ana winds will increase some Wednesday into Thursday, then weaken again late in the week. Warm and dry conditions will coincide with the offshore winds, with notable cooling expected through Saturday.
Wind advisories remain in place across the Santa Ana wind prone areas of Ventura and LA Counties through Wednesday afternoon.
***From Previous Discussion***
Gusty Santa Ana winds will continue across the Southland through at least Thursday, and possibly into Friday or Saturday. Only a few changes were made to the wind advisory headlines as winds will weaken slightly from today. It is likely that wind advisory headlines could be extended as we go further into the week.
A warming trend will continue across the region into Wednesday. Wednesday looks to be the warmest day of the week. 950 mb temperatures warm by a couple of degrees between this afternoon and Wednesday. Near record high temperatures are possible on Wednesday, but only a few locations may see daily records tied or eclipsed. Widespread record heat is not expected at this time.
(Sat-Tue), 13/205 PM.
Another shot of cold air will push into the Mojave Desert between Thursday night and Friday. This shot of cold air will reinforce surface pressure gradients and offer up cooling of overnight low temperatures across the interior valleys and wind-sheltered locations. As the cold air mass arrives between Thursday night and Friday, a cooling trend will begin across most of the region for Friday. Due to downsloping taking place, it is possible that portions of the coast could see slight warming across the region.
An expanded set of wind advisory headlines should be needed between Thursday night and Friday as winds should tick up again. The cold shot of air will tighten offshore pressure gradients. EPS ensemble members suggest a tick up in the winds at KOXR and KCMA, but the wind support aloft does not change much.
A dry weather pattern is likely to persist through at least next Wednesday when the ensemble members advertise the first chance of rain across the region. A cooling trend beginning over the weekend should continue into early next week. A return of low clouds and fog seems likely Sunday or Monday.
14/0031z.
At 2357Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer. There was a surfaced based inversion with a top at 1100 ft and a temperature of 23 C.
High confidence in CAVU TAFs, except for a 10-20% chance of VSBY reduction at KPRB between 12Z-16Z. Moderate confidence in winds for KOXR, KCMA, KVNY, and KBUR (+/- 10 kt). High confidence elsewhere.
Gusty NE winds with LLWS and light to moderate turbulence is likely over and near mountainous terrain, focused across Los Angeles and Ventura counties.
KLAX, High confidence in CAVU 00Z TAF. No significant east wind component expected.
KBUR, High confidence in CAVU 00Z TAF. 10% chance of NE wind gusts up to 15 kts to surface after 14/06Z. Light to moderate turbulence and LLWS likely through the period.
13/853 PM.
Periods of northeast winds will continue across nearshore portions of the Ventura, Los Angeles, and Orange, and San Luis Obispo county coasts through Saturday morning. These winds will create locally choppy seas, especially at their peak speeds in the early morning to early afternoon hours. Winds could reach 15-25 kts at times across the aforementioned areas, with highest likelihood from Channel Islands Harbor through Malibu and out to Santa Cruz Island during the early morning through early afternoon hours from Wed night through Sat morning.
There is a very low chance (10%) for northeast wind gusts of 15-25 knots to impact Avalon and Two Harbors over the next few days, but chances increase slightly (25%) late Wed through Sat morning.
Elsewhere and otherwise conditions will remain unseasonably mild into next week. Seas across the Outer Waters will continue to lower through tonight.
Ca, Wind Advisory remains in effect until 2 PM PST Wednesday for zones 88-355-358-362-369-371-374>376-378>380. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect until 2 PM PST Wednesday for zones 355-362. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ, NONE.
