31/804 PM.
Warm and dry conditions can be expected through most of this week. There will be some coastal low clouds and fog at times, but otherwise skies will remain mostly clear. There will be gusty north winds through tonight and gusty onshore winds through most of the week.
(Sun-Wed), 31/803 PM.
***UPDATE***
The only low clouds noted early this evening were along the SBA County Central Coast, but low clouds were prevalent NW to S of the Channel Islands. Overnight, an eddy is forecast to develop over the SoCal Bight which will help low clouds to develop over this area and expand into the L.A./VTU County coast after midnight and likely to the SBA County S coast by daybreak or shortly thereafter. The inland extent of the low clouds should be somewhat minimal due to a relatively shallow marine inversion near 1200 ft or so. Along the Central Coast, low clouds are forecast to expand over this region overnight and push inland to the Santa Ynez Vly after midnight. Otherwise and elsewhere, mostly clear skies can be expected thru tonight.
There were some sundowner winds early this evening, somewhat localized around Gaviota and Refugio Passes. The strongest winds were noted at Refugio RAWS with gusts to 42 mph and at Gaviota RAWS with a gust of 39 mph. These higher localized winds will persist through this evening then diminish later tonight. Otherwise, winds in the 20 to 30 mph range should affect the western Santa Ynez range this evening.
Current forecast is on track and no changes are expected this evening.
***From Previous Discussion***
500mb heights and onshore flow will gradually increase through the period. Marine layer stratus will increase in coverage Monday and Tuesday. Good confidence by Tuesday that low clouds will cover much of the Oxnard plain and the Santa Barbara-Montecito area. Low confidence whether low clouds will reach portions of the San Fernando Valley - this will depend on the strength of the Catalina Eddy. Some ECWMF ensemble members show a -2.0 mb SBA-SAN pressure gradient which would indicate a moderately strength eddy. For now, have introduced low clouds in the forecast due to additional supporting factors. General consensus among guidance that stratus should dissipate keeping late mornings and afternoons (and evenings for many areas) mostly clear.
Winds will likely remain below advisory levels thru this period. Stronger than normal sea breeze across the west facing beach and near shore areas is expected.
Csts/vlys should cool a couple degrees Monday and a few degrees on Tuesday. The most significant cooling will occur along the central coast on Tuesday (about 6 degrees) - due to stronger sea breeze and a deeper marine layer. Max Temps will fall below normal on Tuesday. Far interior locations will warm 2 to 4 degrees Monday, and locally up to 6 degrees across the Carrizo plain. Temperatures should be fairly similar on Tuesday and will remain about 3 to 6 degrees above normal.
(Thu-Sun), 31/135 PM.
A small ridge will nose into the area from the west on Wed and Thu and hgts will rise to about 586 dam. In combination, with relaxing pressure gradients from the north indicated by LAX-BFL ECWMF projections approaching 0-1mb - this will result in the warmest days across the area. Wednesday will be a bit warmer due to some cold air advection on Thursday. Max Temp departures look to average in the 8-12 degrees above normal range across the far interior on Wednesday. Will continue to refine temperatures as we get closer.
There is a 30-50% chance of advisory level winds across interior portions Wednesday evening. This includes: Salinas Valley, I-5 corridor, & western Santa Ynez mtn range. Elevated Fire Weather conditions are possible across SW SB county late Wednesday afternoon/evening due to gusty sundowners and moderately dry conditions. Stronger than normal sea breeze will also be present through the long term due to persistent onshore pressure gradients.
Night through morning low clouds are expected across the csts through the period. The vlys will likely wake up to stratus on Saturday and Sunday. Some beaches may struggle to clear on Fri, Sat, and possibly on Sunday. This is due to moderate to strong onshore flow combined with decreasing heights as an upper low swings across the PACNW Friday into the weekend. This will result in temperatures 3 to 6 degrees below normal for most areas Saturday into Sunday.
01/0037z.
At 2338Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 900 feet deep. The inversion top was near 3100 feet with a temperature of 22 C.
High confidence in KPMD, KWJF, and KPRB.
Moderate confidence for the coastal and remaining valley TAFs. Where IFR/MFR cigs are forecast there is a 20-30 percent chance that VFR conds prevail with a 20-30 percent chance of IFR/MVFR cigs/vsbys where they are not forecast.
KLAX, Moderate confidence in the 00Z TAF with a 20 percent chance of IFR cigs/vsbys as early as 06Z. High confidence that any east winds will stay under 8 knots.
KBUR, Moderate to high confidence in the 00Z TAF with a 20 percent chance of IFR to MVFR conds 11Z-15Z.
31/913 PM.
For the Outer Waters from the Central Coast to San Nicolas Island, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. High confidence in a combination of at least Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas through much of the coming week, initially through mid morning Monday. After a relative lull, SCA winds are likely to return Tuesday through Thursday, with a 40% chance of Gale force winds over portions of the outer waters Wednesday night through Thursday night. SCA seas of 10+ feet may linger Thursday into Friday.
For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. SCA conds are expected to continue through late tonight. After a relative lull, winds will increase to SCA levels again Wednesday night through Thursday night, with a 20-30% chance of Gales Wednesday night and Thursday. Otherwise, SCA winds are likely to persist through Thursday night.
For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. There is a 50 percent chance of SCA winds Wednesday late afternoon to night and again during the same time frame Thursday.
Ca, High Surf Advisory in effect until 10 PM PDT this evening for zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 AM PDT Monday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
