24/123 PM.
Dry conditions are expected through at least Friday with above normal temperatures and gusty Santa Ana winds at times from Tuesday through Thursday. A cooling trend will develop next weekend with areas of gusty north winds.
(tdy-Thu), 24/220 PM.
High pressure is starting to build over the eastern Pacific and this in conjunction with some offshore flow will create several degrees of warming in most areas through at least Wednesday. Widespread 70s are expected across coast and valleys both days, but peaking on Wednesday with possibly even lower 80s in the warmest areas. Per usual with offshore flow, especially in winter, interior areas like the Antelope Valley, mountains, and far interior SLO County will be much cooler. There is very little upper level wind support with this event so while there will be some purely gradient driven winds across the some coast and valley areas, in general wind speeds should stay below advisory levels. The primary exception to that will be the mountain areas, including the Santa Lucias, where some local gusts to 45 mph will be possible. This Santa Ana event has a little more northerly component to it, so areas that are more exposed to the north such as portions of the mountains and Santa Clarita as as well as the San Fernando Valley will probably experience slightly stronger winds than the last event, while other areas such as portions of Ventura County will be slightly weaker.
Offshore flow is expected to weaken on Thanksgiving. Will still likely have some breezy northeast winds in the same areas in the morning but decreasing earlier in the day. Also, temperatures will likely be a degree or two cooler across coast and valleys as the sea breeze is allowed to begin earlier and push farther inland. Increasing high clouds expected during Thanksgiving Day but no rain.
(Fri-Mon), 24/219 PM.
3-6 degrees of additional cooling is expected Friday as high pressure along the West coast weakens and gradients continue to trend onshore. Areas near the coast will notice the most cooling.
There remains a fair amount of uncertainty next weekend but a vast majority of the ensemble solutions still favor a more inside track to the next system. As a result, roughly 80% of all the ensemble solutions still indicate little or no rain across our area. In these patterns there is typically slightly higher chances for some light precip in the mountains, potentially with lower snow levels, but that will depend on the track of the low. For now there is a 20% chance of showers next weekend and will likely have to wait a few more days before there is increasing confidence either way. At the very least temperatures should remain on the cooler side next weekend.
25/0050z.
Around 2355Z, the marine layer depth was around 700 feet deep at KLAX. The top of the marine inversion was around 1600 feet with a temperature around 15 degrees Celsius. There was another inversion up to around 2200 feet.
High confidence in the current forecast for desert terminals and Los Angeles County valley terminals. Moderate confidence in all remaining terminals.
VFR conditions are expected through the period, except for a moderate-to-high chance of LIFR to IFR conditions at coastal terminals and terminals north of Point Conception between 06Z and 16Z.
KLAX, There is a 50 percent chance of LIFR to IFR conditions after 06Z. There is a 30 percent chance of VLIFR conditions between 10Z and 15Z. VFR conditions will develop between 16Z and 18Z, but there is a 20 percent chance of MVFR visibilities through 20Z. Any easterly winds will very likely be less than 7 knots.
KBUR, VFR conditions are expected through the period. There is a 10 percent chance of LIFR conditions or MVFR visibilities between 13Z and 15Z. No wind impacts are expected at this time.
24/159 PM.
Seas will linger above or near 10 feet more than 20 NM from shore through tonight before decreasing well below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) criteria. Conditions will remain relatively mild nearshore through Thanksgiving week, but there is a moderate chance for north-northeast winds gusting 20-30 knots nearshore from Ventura to Santa Monica Tuesday through Thursday, with strongest winds expected Tuesday night into Wednesday afternoon.
Winds and seas will being to increase to SCA levels across the Outer Waters, and potentially nearshore along the Central Coast as early as Friday. There is quite a bit of uncertainty for this weekend, but there is a moderate to high chance for widespread SCA conditions, including nearshore. Seas will likely increase to 15 feet across the outer waters, and 6 to 8 feet inside the Southern California Bight. There is a low to moderate chance for widespread Gale Force Winds. Stay tuned for updates.
Ca, NONE. PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PST this evening for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Tuesday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
