10/231 AM.
Extreme heat and humidity will continue today with a high risk for heat illness. Cooling is on tap for Friday and especially Saturday with max temps returning to normal. Marine layer clouds will likely return .
(tdy-Sat), 10/231 AM.
Wednesday was the peak of the heat and there will be cooler conditions today but not enough cooling to prevent heat related danger and Heat Warnings will continue through this evening.
The upper high over AZ will weaken through the day and by afternoon hgts will fall to 592 dam. More importantly (at least for the csts/vlys) The offshore flow in the morning will be much weaker and will quickly turn onshore by late morning and then increase through the afternoon. These onshore trends will bring an earlier arrival of the sea breeze and also a strong one. PWATs unfortunately will remain well above normal.
The combination of falling hgts and better onshore flow will bring 4 to 8 locally 10 degrees of cooling to the csts and vlys. The mtns and interior may see a degree or two of warming. Max temps, however, will remain 10 to 15 degrees over normal and this along with overnight lows only in the 70s and lower 80s for many locations will keep the very high heat risk going for one more day.
On Friday the ridge flattens out in response to an upper low moving into the PACNW and hgts will fall another 2 dam to 590 dam. Onshore flow will increase by another 1 to 2 mb. This combination will lead to another 4 to 8 locally 10 degrees of cooling across the board including the interior. This additional cooling will lower most max temps to 3 to 6 degrees above normal. The other good news for Friday will be a noticeable drop in humidities as PWs fall to 1.4 inches over srn LA county and a very pleasant .70 over SLO county. This cooling and drying should eliminate the need for any extension of the heat products.
The continued onshore flow should bring some low clouds back to the area Saturday morning esp across the Central Coast. Another 3 to 6 degrees of cooling will bring max temps down to normal values.
Lastly advisory-level Sundowners are likely every evening starting tonight. The strongest gusts will be west of Isla Vista.
(Sun-Wed), 10/231 AM.
A refreshing return to benign srn CA weather is set for the xtnd period. Fairly flat and zonal flow will stream over the top of SoCal through the period and hgts will mostly range from 586 dam to 588 dam. At the sfc there will be weak to moderate onshore flow in the E/W direction. The N/S gradinets will feature weak offshore flow in the mornings and weak onshore flow in the afternoons.
There will be some morning low clouds each day with the greatest coverage across the Central Coast. Skies, otherwise, will be mostly clear.
Most areas will cool through Tuesday and Tuesday's highs will be in the 70s across the csts and only lower to mid 80s across the vlys. These temps are mostly 5 to 10 degrees blo normal.
No significant wind issues are expected, although there will be the usual gusty southwesterly winds each afternoon across the mountains and deserts and the typical near advisory level evening gusts across the SW corner of SBA county.
10/0931z.
At 0833Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer. There was a sfc based inversion with a top at 1200 feet and 34 degrees C.
High confidence in VFR conditions at all sites through at least Thursday with typical winds.
KLAX, High confidence in CAVU TAF. Any east component will be AOB 6 kts.
KBUR, High confidence in CAVU TAF.
10/232 AM.
Moderate confidence in Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas expanding across all the outer waters today and continuing into early next week. Winds and at times seas will likely exceed SCA levels into early next week, with a 20% chance for Gale Force winds this evening and Friday evening, increasing to a 40% chance this weekend.
Across the nearshore waters along the Central Coast, winds will increase to SCA levels this afternoon and continue into early next week. There may be lulls in winds during the night through mornings each day.
South of Point Conception, moderate confidence in SCA winds across the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel (locally eastern portions) each afternoon and evening into early next week. Thus, there is a 40-60% chance for SCAs to be issued each day, with highest chances this weekend. Local SCA gusts will be possible each afternoon-evening across the Santa Monica Bay and San Pedro Channel into early next week.
10/232 AM.
The potential for moderate coastal flooding will continue through this evening, mainly around evening high tide for south facing shores. Even though the south swell from post tropical cyclone Marie is subsiding, the tides remain very high. The actual observed tides have been running about 6 to 8 inches above predictions, with the evening tides near or exceeding 7 feet.
While impacts will not be as extreme as the past few days, possible impacts include continued beach erosion, flooded sandy beach areas, bike paths, and parking lots, as well as low-lying roads. Some areas that may continue to see impacts are: the Alamitos Peninsula in Long Beach, Avalon on Catalina Island, and Oxnard to Malibu (including the Pacific Coast Highway near Point Mugu).
Beach Hazards Statements (BHS, CFWLOX) are in effect through this evening for the beaches of Los Angeles, Ventura, and southern Santa Barbara Counties due to these very high evening tides.
Ca, Extreme Heat Warning in effect until 8 PM PDT this evening for zones 38-87-88-340>358-362-366>375-548. (See LAXNPWLOX). Beach Hazards Statement in effect through this evening for zones 87-349-350-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Friday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Saturday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Saturday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
