04/630 PM.
Warm temperatures with locally gusty Santa Ana winds will continue through Thursday. Cooler temperatures are expected Friday and over the weekend but highs will still be at least 4-8 degrees above normal. There will be a chance of rain by next Tuesday.
(tdy-Sat), 04/1157 AM.
No significant changes to the forecast through next week. Today is the peak of the Santa Ana winds and temperatures but there will still be some lingering offshore breezes on Thursday. Temperatures will remain well above normal Thursday but with offshore flow weakening temperatures will be trending cooler. Increasing high clouds tomorrow will be another factor bringing temperatures down as well though that's often a tricky one due to uncertainties in opaqueness. In general expecting temperatures to cool around 5 degrees from today but there will likely be some variability in this based on the thickness and timing of the high clouds. This may be especially true along the Central Coast where the high clouds may not arrive until later in the day so temperatures there may not cool as much as areas to the south.
Pressure gradients will be trending strongly onshore Friday into Saturday as a weak upper low moves through. Not expecting any rain but temperatures will be cooling to the upper 60s and 70s in most areas. May also see a return of morning marine layer clouds to coastal areas on Saturday as well.
(Sun-Wed), 04/1241 PM.
After the weak upper low moves through the area Saturday, pressure gradients will trend offshore again for Sunday resulting in 2-5 degrees of warming. Models do indicate some light northeast flow aloft that may support some breezy northeast winds across the area, but at this time probably not enough for advisory level Santa Ana winds.
The upper level pattern will finally begin to shift next week, replacing the dominant upper ridge along the West for the last month with a trough of low pressure. So far most of the ensemble solutions are indicating a couple of systems coming through next week, the first one around Tuesday and another next weekend. Neither of these look particularly strong, in fact models have been consistent showing rain amounts under a half inch with each one.
05/0229z.
At 0019Z, there was no marine layer at KLAX. There was a surface- based inversion up to around 800 feet with a temperature near 27 degrees Celsius.
Moderate to high confidence in the current forecast. Higher confidence exists in flight categories, with VFR conds expected across the forecast area. Lower confidence exists in winds and wind impacts.
VFR conditions are expected through the period, except for a 10% chance of VLIFR conditions close to the coast between 13Z to 17Z. There is a 40-60% chance of moderate to occasionally strong low- level wind shear and turbulence through the period.
KLAX, Moderate to high confidence in the 00Z TAF. VFR conditions are expected through the period. Any east winds should remain less than 7 knots through 10Z Thursday, then there is a 50-60 percent chance of easterly winds between 7 and 10 knots through 18Z Thursday. There is a 30 percent chance of moderate low-level wind shear and turbulence after 10Z Thursday.
KBUR, Moderate to high confidence in the 00Z TAF. VFR conditions are expected through the period. There is a 30 percent chance of moderate low- level wind shear and turbulence after 08Z Thursday.
04/232 PM.
Moderate to high confidence in the current forecast through Thursday, then moderate confidence thereafter. Higher confidence in the wind forecast relative to seas.
Offshore easterly winds should continue across the waters through Thursday afternoon. There is a high to likely (40-60 percent) chance of Small Craft Advisory level winds for the waters inside the southern California bight through late this afternoon, then the chance will become more widespread farther to the north and west into the waters south of Point Sal from late tonight through Thursday afternoon.
By Thursday evening, winds and seas should drop below SCA levels, then northwest winds along with wind-driven seas will likely dominate the pattern across the waters over the weekend. There is a moderate to high chance of SCA conditions for the waters southwest through northwest of the Channel Islands and the nearshore waters along the Central Coast as soon as early Friday morning with a higher chance for early next week. After Monday, there is a high chance of SCA conditions for the same area with a moderate chance of Gales.
04/232 PM.
An active storm pattern over the northern Pacific Ocean will generate a series of swells which will propagate towards our coastline beginning on Friday lasting well into next week. There is a high chance of an extended period of elevated surf. There is high confidence in advisory level surf with minor coastal flooding possible through Sunday morning, then moderate confidence exists into early half of next week.
Peak surf heights are likely to be near or greater than 15 ft for west-facing beaches along the Central Coast, and near or greater than 10 ft south of Point Conception.
Ca, Wind Advisory now in effect until noon PST Thursday for zones 88-354-355-358-362-369>372-374>376-378-379. (See LAXNPWLOX). High Surf Advisory in effect from midnight Thursday night to 6 AM PST Saturday for zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX). High Surf Advisory in effect from 6 AM Friday to 6 PM PST Saturday for zones 354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PST Thursday for zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
