13/807 PM.
Multiple periods of light to moderate rain is expected well into next week, with the first round ending by Saturday morning. There will be a break this weekend, with the next round set for around Monday, then the next around Thursday. The risk of significant impacts and flooding with any of these storms is low, with generally light to moderate rain. Temperatures will remain at or below normal. Very large surf will bring coastal impacts well into next week, largest on Saturday.
(Fri-Mon), 13/757 PM.
***UPDATE***
It was a showery day today across SW California, with a range of precip totals across the region. The bulk of the region saw at up to a third of an inch of rain since midnight, with mountain and foothill locations up to 0.50 to 1.00 inches. However, due to the showery nature of the rain, some locations may have received 0.30 inches, while less than a mile away, some areas only recorded a few hundredths of an inch of rain over the past day. Some steadier light to moderate rain is currently pushing its way through Santa Barbara County and moving southward over the next few hours, then expect some lingering showers behind this front. Any additional rain (mainly south of Point Conception) will be up to a third of an inch, locally up to 0.50 inch in the favored foothills and mountains, then the rain should mostly be clear of the area by sunrise Saturday morning.
High temperatures were pretty widespread in the 60s and a few locations reaching into the 70s. Expecting a few degrees of warming tomorrow with more locations increasing into the 70s, since the rain has passed and skies should be mostly sunny.
Forecast looks to be in shape and no updates were needed.
***From Previous Discussion***
By Saturday afternoon, the rain should be gone and should stay away through at least Sunday afternoon for a dry weekend. Temperatures will rebound to the mid 60s to lower 70s, which is a few degrees below normal. A rapidly intensifying low pressure system, currently just south of Anchorage Alaska, will spawn a slow moving cold front that will March down the west coast and push through southwest California sometime Sunday night through Monday night. The latest projections (including the ensembles) have become more aligned timing-wise, but have lowered the amounts a bit and the number of solutions with no rain has increased. If it does rain, amounts in the 0.10 to 0.25 inches look common, with some 0.50 to 1.00 inches possible in some foothills. This system has more westerly flow than the storm for tonight. The only thing of concern with this system is the cold air behind it, that will lower snow levels to around 5,000 feet Monday Night. With the flow turning more northwesterly, this could result in an inch or two of snow and icy roads to the Frazier Park area. While it is unlikely, a dusting of snow at the Tejon Pass cannot be completely ruled out. That northwesterly flow shift will also bring gusty north winds to the typical areas like the I-5 Corridor and the Santa Ynez Range.
(Tue-Fri), 13/207 PM.
There should be a break in the rain for much of Tuesday, but then the next storm enters the window Wednesday or Thursday. The latest ensemble projections re-introduced a handful of heaAVDAFDLOXvier totals (10% of them) but most projection keep this storm in the same categories as the ones before it - light to moderate rain. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts.
14/0502z.
At 0500Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer and no marine inversion.
For 06Z TAF package, moderate confidence in current forecasts. Through 12Z, showers will continue to impact the area with MVFR CIGs at times. Timing of flight category changes with rain is moderate. After 12Z, VFR conditions are expected as the rain moves east.
KLAX, Overall, moderate confidence in 06Z TAF. There is a 50% chance that MVFR conditions will continue through 14Z. High confidence this afternoon/evening in CAVU conditions. No significant easterly wind component is expected.
KBUR, Overall, moderate confidence in 06Z TAF. There is a 50% chance that MVFR conditions will continue through 14Z. High confidence this afternoon/evening in CAVU conditions.
13/615 PM.
For the Outer Waters, high confidence in current forecast. Today through Tuesday, a combination of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas is expected. Winds look to peak Friday and Saturday, then again on Monday. Dangerously large seas are expected to peak on Saturday (18-24 feet) with a secondary peak expected on Monday (12-18 feet). On Monday and Tuesday, SCA winds are likely, with a a 30-40% chance of Gale force winds south of Point Conception.
For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, high confidence in current forecast. Through Tuesday, a combination of SCA level winds and seas are expected. Winds will peak again on Monday. Dangerously large seas are expected to peak on Saturday (14-21 feet) with a secondary peak on Monday (11-16 feet).
For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Through Saturday morning, SCA winds associated with the frontal passage are likely. Also, SCA seas are likely on Saturday across western portion of the Santa Barbara Channel. On Sunday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. On Monday and Tuesday, there is a 60-80% chance of SCA level winds and a 30-40% chance of Gale force winds.
With the expected large west-northwesterly swell this weekend, there is the threat of dangerous breaking waves at Ventura and especially Morro Bay harbor entrances. Refer to the Marine Weather Statement which has been issued (MWSLOX) for more details.
Periodic rain can be expected through at least Monday.
13/615 PM.
A series of very large, long period west-northwesterly swells will impact the coastline of southwest California through at least Tuesday of next week, creating large surf and dangerous conditions at all coasts. Largest surf will be focused along west to northwest facing shores and surf is expected to peak on Saturday, with a potential secondary increase Monday. Moderate to significant beach erosion and shallow flooding of sea water over low-lying beach walkways, parking lots, and roads is likely, especially in the morning hours near high tide. Large surf will create dangerous rip currents, along with strong long shore currents, potential sneaker waves, and large shore pound. Impacts will be less for south-facing shores.
The highest risk will be for the Central Coast with potential for localized damage to the most vulnerable areas - such as to piers, roads, and structures. High Surf and Coastal Flood WARNINGS are in effect for the Central Coast with impacts such as breaking waves at Morro Bay Harbor entrance and Pismo and Cayucos Piers, as well as widespread sandy beach flooding - including Oceano Dunes State Park and other vulnerable low lying areas (especially during high tide). Surf heights are expected to reach 18-25 feet, highest at west-northwest facing beaches.
For west-facing beaches in LA/Ventura counties, high surf advisories are in effect with high surf expected to continue through at least Tuesday. There may be a relative "lull" in the surf Sunday before the second swell arrives, but surf and rip currents will still be hazardous. Surf is expected to peak Saturday and there is a low chance for WARNING level surf at Ventura County beaches. Hazardous breaking waves are expected at Ventura Harbor entrance on Saturday - refer to MWSLOX for more details. Additionally, moderate coastal flooding is likely Saturday around high tide in the late morning, thus Coastal Flood Advisories have been issued.
Ca, Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Tuesday afternoon for zone 87. (See LAXCFWLOX). High Surf Warning in effect until 3 AM PST Sunday for zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX). Coastal Flood Warning in effect from 3 AM to 6 PM PST Saturday for zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX). Beach Hazards Statement in effect until 4 AM PST Saturday for zones 349-350. (See LAXCFWLOX). High Surf Advisory in effect from 4 AM Saturday to 4 AM PST Sunday for zones 349-350. (See LAXCFWLOX). High Surf Advisory in effect until 3 PM PST Tuesday for zones 354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). Coastal Flood Advisory in effect from 4 AM to 4 PM PST Saturday for zones 354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Wednesday for zones 645-670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Sunday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 AM PST Saturday for zone 655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
