15/119 PM.
High pressure and offshore flow will bring very warm and dry conditions across the region through the weekend along with locally gusty northeast winds at times across Los Angeles and Ventura Counties. A slow cooling trend will begin Friday, but above normal temperatures are expected at least into early next week.
(Thu-Sun), 15/909 PM.
***UPDATE***
Quite the warm day today with almost all of the csts and vlys in the 80s. The Ventura coastal plain was the hot spot where a high of 87 degrees was recorded at this forecast office in Oxnard.
Low clouds are now pressed against the Central Coast and will likely move across the coastal plain there overnight. It is also likely that the low clouds will creep into the Long Beach / Torrance area after midnight. Because the marine layer is under 500 ft deep anywhere the low clouds form there will likely be dense fog.
It looks like there will be a little more cooling tomorrow than previously thought esp at the coasts were max temps will end up in the mid to upper 70s (still above normal).
There will be a little bump up in the offshore flow tomorrow morning with a corresponding increase in the Santa Ana winds. Right now it looks like the winds will be close to but just under advisory levels. This will be re-evaluated with the 300am forecast.
Current forecast is in good shape and no updates are planned.
***From Previous Discussion***
No major changes to the forecast for the next several days. Offshore flow will continue into next week, and actually models are advertising a 1.5mb bump in gradients Friday through the weekend. Upper support remains on the lighter side but hi res models are indicating 5-15 mph boost in winds the next couple days. This may require the re-issuance of some wind advisories over the stronger areas like the Santa Susanna mountains and some of the inland valleys.
Otherwise, the big story remains the heat which once again has resulted in highs at or above 85 degrees across a wide area of the coast and valleys, including the Central Coast. Not quite to record highs but still 15-20 degrees above normal. While models are showing a very slow cooling trend aloft, this may be offset by the increase in offshore flow the next few days, resulting in either no appreciable temperature change or just very minor cooling on the order of 1-3 degrees.
The one caveat to that may be the possible return of a low stratus layer to the immediate coast that is already very close to Pt Conception as of Thursday afternoon. Models are mixed on whether fog will move onshore and impact some coastal airports, but the best chance may be Friday morning before gradients increase again over the weekend.
(Mon-Thu), 15/214 PM.
Moderate to strong offshore flow is expected to continue until at least Tuesday, however 950mb temperatures begin a fairly significant daily decline on Monday and especially Tuesday and Wednesday, by which time temperatures are expected to return to more typical levels in the 60s to lower 70s. In the meantime, highs will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s through the weekend. There may be some brief but locally dense fog near the beaches, but very low confidence on this given offshore gradients still between 4 and 6mb.
The next chance of rain is still later next week. The vast majority of the ensemble solutions are either dry or under a tenth of an inch through next weekend so any rain next week would likely be of little impact.
16/0606z.
At 0512Z over KLAX, there was no marine layer. There was a surface based inversion with a top at 1500 ft and a temperature of 22 C.
High confidence in TAFs for KPRB, KBUR, KVNY, KPMD and KWJF.
Fair confidence in TAFs for KSBP, KSBA, KOXR, KCMA and KSMO with a 20 percent chc of LIFR conds 09Z-16Z.
Moderate confidence in TAFs for KSMX and KLAX with a 30 percent chc of LIFR conds 10Z-16Z.
Moderate Confidence in TAF for KLGB with a 30 percent chc of no restrictions.
KLAX, Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 30 percent chc of 1/2sm FG VV002 conds 10Z-16Z. Good confidence that any east wind component will be 6 knots or less.
KBUR, High confidence in TAF. There is a 20 percent chc of north to northeast winds 13Z-18Z.
15/811 PM.
Overall, moderate confidence in the current forecast. Less confidence in the current forecast for winds. Higher confidence in the current forecast for seas.
For the inner waters inside the southern California bight, there is a 20-30 percent chance of SCA level winds between late tonight and Friday morning between Rincon Point and Point Dume, increasing to a 40-50 percent chance Friday night through Saturday morning. Conditions should drop below SCA levels between Saturday afternoon and early next week.
Elsewhere, winds and seas should remain below SCA levels into early next week. A long-period west-to-northwest swell over the waters will continue, but wave heights will stay under 8 feet through the weekend and into next week.
Ca, NONE. PZ, NONE.
