31/227 AM.
Very warm conditions will continue through the weekend, with high temperatures 10 to 20 degrees above normal. Cooling with dense fog will bring a brief break around Monday, with warming again starting Tuesday or Wednesday. Gusty Santa Ana winds will be common through Saturday, and again Tuesday through Thursday of next week.
(tdy-Mon), 31/228 AM.
Weak to locally moderate Santa Ana winds will continue through early Sunday. Fairly safe to say that winds peaked on Thursday and Friday and while they will remain locall gusty, they should stay below Wind Advisory coverage and thresholds. Temperatures will remain 10+ degrees above normal through Saturday or Sunday thanks to this offshore flow and high pressure aloft. The combination of temperatures dropping a degree or two and the calendar day records being a little higher, records look safe through the weekend. Overnight temperatures will generally remain mild and a source of relief from the warm days, thanks to the very dry airmass and clear skies. Some of the persistently windy areas however will see lows on the warmer side of the 60s.
High pressure aloft will weaken Sunday and Monday while offshore pressure gradients and winds turn near neutral. This will cause temperatures to drop a few degrees but all areas will remain well above normal (highs in the 70s common). The only wrinkle in that story is the growing chance of some offshore winds reforming on Monday over the Central Coast which might minimize that cooling trend up there. Dense fog with very low visibility is likely to impact some coastal areas as early as Sunday, but more so on Monday as a coastal eddy forms south of Point Conception.
(Tue-Fri), 31/228 AM.
The onshore and cooling trend from Sunday to Monday will reverse course on Tuesday and Wednesday as moderate offshore flow and high pressure aloft returns. As a result, look for gusty northeast winds over the wind prone areas of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties later Tuesday through Thursday with a few Wind Advisories likely. Temperatures will climb back into the upper 70s and 80s by Wednesday. A cooling trend remains favorable in the majority of the ensemble solutions by Friday or Saturday and high pressure aloft and offshore flow weakens. There remains a spread however in the magnitude of that shift.
There are no rain chances through Friday February 6. Chances increase a little after that, peaking in the February 9th through 14th window at about 50 percent. The vast majority of the ensemble solutions that show rain have light amounts, with a slim minority showing more significant amounts.
31/1313z.
At 1249Z at KLAX, there was a surface-based inversion with a top at 1200 feet and a temperature of 23 degrees Celsius.
High confidence in TAFs. The only exception will be KPRB where there is a 40% chance of MVFR VSBYs 11Z-17Z, and a 20% chance of LIFR/VLIFR conditions.
Continued offshore flow will generate light LLWS and turbulence across the foothills and mountains through the period.
KLAX, High confidence in TAF. No significant easterly wind component is expected.
KBUR, High confidence in TAF.
31/109 AM.
For the Outer Waters, conditions will remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels through Saturday night. Late Sunday afternoon, SCA level winds and seas will expand across the entire outer waters, with a 30% chance of occuring as early as Sunday morning. While the winds should drop below advisory levels by Monday evening, SCA seas will continue through Monday night. SCA conds are not expected to return Tuesday through Wednesday. Nearshore along the Central Coast, SCA level seas are expected to return Sunday night through Monday night. SCA level NE winds will be possible during the late night through morning hours Monday night through Thursday.
For inner waters south of Point Conception, areas of north to northeast winds are expected for the nearshore coastal waters off the Ventura County Coast to Malibu through this morning, but are expected to remain below SCA levels. The highest chances for SCA conditions will be along the coast between Point Mugu and Pacific Palisades. Winds and seas should diminish further this afternoon and continue below SCA levels through the weekend and into Tuesday. A return of SCA level northeast winds is possible between Tuesday night and Thursday.
Ca, NONE. PZ, NONE.
