12/524 PM.
Night through morning low clouds and fog will cover most of the coasts and many valley locations through the weekend and into early next week. Highs will cool slightly through Sunday. Most high temperatures will remain above normal, with the exception of the coasts, which will see temperatures near to slightly below normal.
(tdy-Mon), 13/321 AM.
Relative small day-to-day changes are expected through Monday. With little change in weak ridging aloft, surface pressure gradients and subtle marine layer changes will most strongly influence our weather through Monday. In general night to morning low clouds and patchy dense fog (focused across western San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara Counties) will continue through the period. Breezy afternoon to evening onshore winds across the interior will remain safely below advisory levels. Generally minor heat impacts will continue away from the coast with highs in the 80s to near 100 for coastal valleys to interior.
However, the potential for moderate heat impacts may expand for warmer coastal valleys the interior early next week as there will be minor warming (2-5 degrees). This is thanks a delayed sea breeze and likely slight shrinking in the marine layer due to to minor offshore trends (actual onshore flow likely to continue even during the typical morning minimum) focused from the north. Although above normal temperatures will increase heat stress during the day for those interior areas, good cooling trends in the evening and especially overnight should limit overall impacts and therefore the need for heat products. However, those sensitive to the heat may want to consider avoiding peak heat of the day and hydrate often.
(Tue-Fri), 13/321 AM.
Tuesday will likely be similar to Monday, still warm with above normal temperatures away from the coast.
A trough will likely build into region Wednesday or Thursday and bring moderate cooling trends away from the coast, drastically reducing heat risk even to warmer interior areas. Night to morning low clouds will likely continue, but expand to cover most coastal valleys and possibly some lower foothills.
The associated onshore push will support gusty onshore to northwest winds nearing advisory levels for the interior, possibly extending to southwest Santa Barbara. There may be a period of enhanced fire weather concern on one or both of those transition days (Wed/Thu) for far interior areas, especially at high elevations, which would be situated above the expanding marine layer influence.
13/0713z.
At 06Z at KLAX, there was a 1200 ft marine layer. The top of the inversion was at 2600 ft with a maximum temperature of 23 C.
High confidence in VFR TAFs for KPRB, KPMD and KWJF.
Low confidence in KBUR and KVNY 10Z-16Z with a 30-50 percent chc of LIFR/IFR cig with otherwise good confidence.
Moderate confidence in remaining TAFs. Timing of CIG/VSBY restrictions may be off 2 hours and flight minimums by one category.
KLAX, Moderate confidence in TAF. No significant east wind component expected.
KBUR, Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 50 percent chc of LIFR CIGs 10Z-16Z.
12/804 PM.
Moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Conditions are generally expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels across the waters through the forecast period.
Local gusts to around 20 kts are affecting the waters near Point Conception, and also along some of the LA County Beaches. This pattern is likely to repeat each afternoon to evening period, especially along the LA Coast, through Monday.
12/809 PM.
A couple of long period southerly swells (14 seconds and 18 seconds) will move into the coastal waters on Saturday and continue through early next week. A Beach Hazard Statement is in effect from Saturday morning through Monday evening due to elevated surf of 3 to 6 feet on south-facing beaches of Ventura County Beaches, Malibu Coast, Los Angeles County Beaches, and Southern Santa Barbara County Beaches.
Evening tides of near 7.5ft are predicted from Saturday through Tuesday. The combination of the unusually high tides with elevated surf could result in minor to locally moderate coastal flooding for south exposed coasts, along with potential for sneaker waves. Even as tides lower, another southerly swell arrives which could extend concerns into Wednesday or Thursday. Stay tuned for updates.
Ca, Beach Hazards Statement in effect from 8 AM PDT this morning through Monday evening for zones 349-350-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ, NONE.
