29/243 AM.
Cool but dry today with breezy onshore winds. Warming and drying Saturday through next week, but a return of low clouds and fog will moderate coastal temperatures. Sunday and Monday will likely be the warmest with highs 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Locally gusty north winds over the weekend.
(tdy-Sun), 29/233 AM.
Forecast-wise for the short term, forecast looks very much on track. Any lingering showers should end by sunrise Friday.
For Friday through Sunday, the weather will return to a more late May pattern. With the ridge building overhead, skies should generally remain mostly clear. However, there will likely be some coastal stratus/fog, but the areal coverage each night will diminish. The combination of the flat upper ridge, less marine influence and weaker onshore flow will allow for a very nice warming trend. By Sunday, coastal areas will have highs in the 70s while the valley/interior sections will have highs in the 80s to lower 90s (about 5-10 degrees above seasonal normals).
One thing to watch this weekend will be the winds. As this pattern develops, northerly offshore pressure gradients will develop. So, there will be gusty northwesterly winds in the usual spots (Santa Ynez Range, I-5 Corridor and the Central Coast). At this time, there is about a 20-30% chance of winds reaching advisory levels.
(Mon-Thu), 29/309 AM.
The ridge of high pressure that will start to build over the weekend looks poised to continue to build through the middle of next week. This will cause temperatures over the interior mountains and deserts to steadily climb through most of next week. Wednesday and Thursday look the warmest when 500 millibar heights peak at 585-588 decameters. Highs in the 90-100 range look all but certain. Over the coastal side of the mountains, Monday looks warm with near neutral onshore pressure gradients, and some northerly flow. Highs between 82 and 92 look favorable inland of the beaches, which is 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Heat Advisories and Warnings however are unlikely. The majority of ensemble solutions show onshore pressure gradients strengthening Tuesday through Thursday. Being June Gloom season, one has to expect at least modest marine layer cooling influence and probably some low clouds, which will moderate the high temperature potential. So the mostly likely scenario calls for the coastal and valley areas to cool some Tuesday through Thursday while the interior areas warm up. This would increase the west to east temperature gradient and further enhance what should be some gusty onshore winds over the interior. There are about 10 percent of the ensembles however that do not increase the onshore flow and bring very warm conditions to the valleys. This is the reasonable worst-case but unlikely scenario.
29/1010z.
At 10Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer or inversion.
High confidence that -SHRA will end by 12Z. Low confidence on timing and coverage of ceilings through the day, but moderate confidence that any ceilings will stay in the MVFR and VFR range. Any clearing that happens this morning, will likely lead to SCT- BKN025-040 in the afternoon. Gustier than usual onshore winds likely this afternoon and evening. IFR-MVFR Marine layer clouds likely to return Saturday morning at all coastal sites and KPRB except KSBA.
KLAX, High confidence in -SHRA ending by 12Z. Low confidence in ceiling timing, with chances through the evening hours. Moderate confidence that any ceilings will stay in the MVR-VFR category. Moderate confidence in MVFR marine layer ceilings returning Saturday morning. High confidence in any easterly winds staying under 06 knots through at least Saturday.
KBUR, High confidence in -SHRA ending by 12Z. Low confidence in ceiling timing, with chances through the evening hours. Moderate confidence that any ceilings will stay in the MVR-VFR category. Moderate confidence in MVFR marine layer ceilings returning Saturday morning.
29/717 AM.
High confidence in conditions staying below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) through early this afternoon, with a long period northwest swell and short period west wind swell. High confidence in SCA conditions expanding through the weekend.
For the outer waters from the Central Coast to San Nicolas Island, at least SCA conditions likely starting Friday afternoon and lasting for the foreseeable future. Chances for Gales as well, Friday Night (20%), Saturday Night (50%) and Wednesday Night (60%). The nearshore waters likely to see SCA conditions each afternoon and evening through Saturday.
For the Santa Barbara Channel, SCA conditions are likely for the western portion through Saturday. For all other waters, SCA conditions unlikely through at least early next week, but choppy seas are likely each afternoon and evening.
Ca, NONE. PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Saturday for zones 645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM PDT Monday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
