06/259 PM.
A small cool down is expected today, with scattered clouds and mountains showers thunderstorms through this evening. Slight warming and offshore winds will return this weekend, followed by a weak to moderate storm system Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures will be much cooler and rain and gusty winds will be possible.
(tdy-Mon), 06/157 PM.
A slow moving upper low pressure system will pass to our southwest though tonight. The main impact is much cooler temperatures associated with a switch to onshore flow with partly to mostly cloudy skies. There is a 10-25 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms focused across the interior mountains, especially from western Ventura Mountains into the interior Santa Barbara Mountains. Showers have already started to form over these areas, increasing confidence in thunderstorm development over these areas through 5 or 6 pm. Potential impacts from these thunderstorms are cloud-to-ground lightning, gusty winds, and locally heavy rainfall. Storms will be slow to move and may favor slow westward movement.
In the wake of this system we expect warming and drying trends through Sunday with breezy but likely subadvisory north to northeast winds focused across the interior mountains and foothills, but also expanding to some coasts and valleys, including the Santa Ana Wind corridor. Some areas will experience 10-15 degrees of warming with widespread highs in the 70s by Sunday. Some cooling is likely into Monday ahead of what looks to be a more significant pattern change towards unsettled weather.
(Tue-Fri), 06/157 PM.
Moist west to southwest flow with a series of storms looks to set up by Tuesday and potentially continue well into the following week, kicking off what looks like another stretch of active weather. Below normal confidence on the timing and strength of this activity, although shower activity will mostly be on the weak to moderate side through at least Friday. Snow levels will likely initially be above 7000 feet, but may fall to around 6000 feet with light accumulations possible above those levels. Increased cloud cover and weak troughiness will support near to slightly below temperatures through this period. Gusty southwest to northwest winds are likely at times, but mainly below advisory levels outside of wind prone areas.
There is a 60-70 percent chance of above normal precipitation February 12-16 (next Thursday through the following Monday). Or in other words active weather is likely to continue at times through at least the 6-10 day period.
06/2349z.
At 1836Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1700 feet deep with an inversion to 3000 feet and a maximum temperature of 15 C.
High confidence in VFR TAFs for KPMD and KWJF.
Moderate confidence in remaining TAFs, due to uncertainty with regards to ceiling hieghts and timing. There is a 30% chance of no cigs forming overnight at KVNY, KBUR, KPRB, and KOXR, and a 20% chance for other sites where cigs are forecast.
There is a less than 10% chance for an isolated shower and lightning strike near any forecast site, with higher chance of thunderstorms over the mountains through early evening.
KLAX, There is a 20% chance for no cigs tonight, but if cigs do form, 007-012 feet will likely be the minimum height. No significant east wind expected.
KBUR, There is a 30% chance of no cigs forming overnight, but if cigs do form, 005-010 feet will likely be the minimum height.
06/232 PM.
A long period west swell is impacting the region, with seas of 9-12 feet across the inner waters along the Central Coast and the outer waters from Point Piedras south to San Nicolas Island. Seas will start to decrease on Saturday, but northwest winds will increase around the same time. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds in the 20-30 knots range will be common across the Outer Waters and along the Central Coast into at least early next week. There is a 40-60% chance for low end Gale Force winds (35-40 knots) during this timeframe, highest chances Sunday afternoon and night.
West to northwest winds will make their way into the waters south of Point Conception Saturday and Sunday afternoon, although likely staying below SCA levels, except for localized gusts to 25 knots. Offshore flow will bring 15-25 knot winds to nearshore areas from Ventura to Santa Monica late Saturday into Monday afternoon, with strongest winds likely along the Malibu Coast late Saturday through Sunday early afternoon.
Choppy waves will be the result of the increase in winds and ocean conditions will remain hazardous into at least Monday, and there is a moderate chance for patchy dense fog through at least Saturday morning.
06/146 PM.
A long period west swell has reached the coastal waters today, resulting in high surf focused across west facing beaches through Saturday night. Elevated surf will likely continue into next week.
Refer to the SRFLOX and CFWLOX products for more details on the High Surf Advisories along the coast.
Ca, High Surf Advisory in effect until 9 PM PST Saturday for zones 340-346-349-350-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Monday for zones 645-670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
