21/740 PM.
Scattered light showers are possible tonight into early Saturday in eastern Los Angeles County, mainly in the mountains, along with gusty east winds. Dry weather is expected for the rest of the weekend and lasting through at least Thanksgiving. High temperatures will rise to near to slightly above normal next week.
(Fri-Mon), 21/735 PM.
***UPDATE***
An upper closed low circulation is centered about 300 miles southwest of Los Angeles, and is forecast to shift eastward over the next 24 hours to the intersection between Arizona, SE California and northern Mexico. A counter-clockwise circulation around the low is wrapping some moisture into SW California from the south and causing gusty Santa Ana winds. These easterly winds are forecast to increase tonight and Saturday in Santa Ana wind- prone areas. The strongest gusts will be between 35 to 50 mph over the mountains and foothills, with locally stronger gusts possible. Meanwhile, scattered to isolated showers will be possible over eastern interior L.A. County, mainly over the eastern San Gabriels. Only light accumulations under around a third of an inch are expected, with light snow flurries possible at times above 6,000 feet. Finally, temperatures will warm some on Saturday with highs up anywhere from 3 to 6 degrees for the coast and some valleys, and 5 to 10 degrees over the interior.
***From Previous Discussion***
Light onshore flow will be returning to the area Sunday and Monday that will cool off the coastal areas slightly but most valleys will notice little change. With the shift to onshore flow there is at least a small chance of some marine layer stratus developing but forecast soundings currently are not very favorable for that. Otherwise, skies expected to be mostly clear Sunday and Monday.
(Tue-Fri), 21/202 PM.
The rest of Thanksgiving week is expected to be mild or even slightly above normal as pressure gradients shift back to offshore by 2-5mb based on the latest ensemble gradient charts. Thanksgiving Day is expected to be sunny with highs around 70 near the coast and approaching 80 in some of the warmer valleys in LA/Ventura Counties.
Looking ahead models are still indicating the next weather system to move into the area later next weekend. Earlier model runs had been favoring another potential strong system but more recent solutions have trended more towards an inside slider pattern as the 12z GFS/EC models are showing. At the very least temperatures will trend cooler next weekend, but at this point confidence in any one model run is very low.
22/0018z.
At 00Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor inversion.
Moderate confidence in TAFs. There is a 10-20% chance for showers through the period, best chances for Los Angeles County through 18Z. Mostly VFR conds, but brief period of MVFR cigs are possible. Low confidence, but there is a 10-20% chance for VLIFR to LIFR cigs and vsbys at KPRB, KBUR, and KVNY between 08Z and 18Z as radiation fog may develop overnight. East winds will continue at many sites through the period.
Moderate LLWS and turbulence likely through the period, especially over mountainous terrain over Ventura and Los Angeles County.
KLAX, Moderate confidence in TAF. 20% chance for showers through the end of the period with best chances through 18Z. Lower confidence in winds as models have trended lighter in terms of magnitude of east winds through the period. There is a 40% chance for an east wind component of 8 kt through 19Z. Most likely time frame is through 07Z, then 13Z-19Z.
KBUR, Moderate confidence in TAF. 20% chance for showers through the end of the period with best chances through 18Z. Wind speeds may suddenly increase and decrease at times overnight. 10-20% chance for VLIFR to LIFR cigs and vsbys from 10Z to 18Z as radiation fog may develop overnight.
21/707 PM.
A few lingering showers may occur south of Point Concpetion into Saturday morning, but the main threat of rain and thunderstorms has passed.
A combination of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds and seas will continue across the Outer Waters and nearshore Central Coast Waters at times over the weekend. Conditions are likely to improve by Sunday, but there is a moderate chance for SCA conditions to hold on into early next week, especially beyond 20NM from the Central Coast.
South of Point Conception, Santa Ana winds will continue to impact nearshore from Ventura to Malibu through Saturday afternoon, with moderate chances winds the Channel Islands. Conditions will improve Saturday evening into next week.
Ca, Wind Advisory now in effect until 2 PM PST Saturday for zones 88-354-355-358-362-369-371-374-375. (See LAXNPWLOX). High Surf Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Monday for zones 340-346-354. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Sunday for zones 645-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Saturday for zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Monday for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
