01/838 PM.
Quiet weather with near seasonal temperatures will prevail through at least Saturday. A cooling trend will begin Sunday and there is a chance of drizzle or light rain showers late Sunday through Monday night. Dry and warmer conditions can be expected starting next Wednesday.
(Fri-Mon), 01/833 PM.
***UPDATE***
After slow clearing of stratus clouds over the coast and some valleys, highs today were 60s to low 70s along the coast with 70s to mid 80s further inland. Onshore winds increased during the afternoon to evening hours, with gusts currently around 20 to 30 mph, strongest across Ventura and LA Counties.
Conditions are not expected to change much on Saturday, with low clouds moving over the coastal areas into the coastal valleys overnight, similarly to last night. Highs for the coast and valleys may rise 2 to 4 degrees, with cooling likely over portions of the interior, including interior San Luis Obispo County. Onshore winds will be stronger however, with the LAX to Daggett gradient increasing from 5.5 mb this evening, to 7.1 mb Saturday evening, then to 8.8 mb Sunday evening. Based on high resolution model forecasts, expect more widespread winds gusting up to 30 mph across the Antelope Valley and foothills, and also through passes and canyons in the San Gabriels. Winds will increase more significantly Sunday afternoon, with gusts up to 40 mph and potentially 45 to 50 mph over the AV foothills.
A cooling trend across the area is on tap for Sunday through Tuesday, with a slight chance of light rain moving northwest to southeast across the area Monday into Monday night.
***From Previous Discussion***
Sunday is still slated to be the beginning of a 3 day cooling trend, the bulk of which will take place Sunday as a slow moving cut off low moves south along the California coast. Given the predicted track of the low it's unlikely any rain will fall before Monday but if there is some precip Sunday it would be along the Central Coast and very light.
By Monday most of the models are showing the upper low centered between Monterey and San Luis Obispo with still very little moisture (PW's around 0.6"). Between that and also very minimal dynamics aloft any rain or drizzle that falls will be very light, and could be just be from an enhanced marine layer interacting with the coastal topography. Temperatures will top out in the 60s, 6-12 degrees below normal inland and 2-4 below normal for the coast.
(Tue-Fri), 01/205 PM.
Cool conditions will continue into at least Tuesday as models are indicating the upper low finally getting nudged east. Although most of the ensemble solutions slightly favor Monday as the "best" chance of any precip, Tuesday may actually have a higher chance due to higher moisture content (increasing to 0.8") and slightly better instability with low passing overhead. This isn't really reflected in the current forecast mainly due to lots of uncertainty with the precise track of the low, but certainly can't rule out some scattered light showers Tuesday.
A weak high pressure ridge is expected to move over the West coast by later Wednesday and last more or less into next weekend with warming temperatures, possibly getting close to 90 in the warmer valleys by Friday.
02/0410z.
At 0400Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1200 feet deep. The top of the inversion was 3800 ft with a temperature of 20 degrees Celsius.
For the 06Z TAF package, high confidence in KWJF and KPMD. For coastal and valley sites, moderate confidence in current forecasts as timing of flight category changes could be +/- 3 hours of current forecasts.
KLAX, Moderate confidence in 06Z TAF. Timing of flight category changes could be +/- 3 hours of current forecasts. There is a 30% chance that there will be a period of IFR conditions 08Z-14Z. No significant easterly wind component is expected.
KBUR, Moderate confidence in 06Z TAF. Timing of flight category changes could be +/- 3 hours of current forecasts. There is a 40% chance that there will be a period of IFR conditions 08Z-14Z.
01/856 PM.
For the Outer Waters, high confidence in current forecast. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds will continue across the most northern waters into Friday night (PZZ670). Otherwise through Tuesday, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels.
For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, high confidence in current forecast. From now through Tuesday, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels.
For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, high confidence in current forecast. Through Sunday, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels. For Tuesday and Wednesday, winds and seas are expected to continue to remain below SCA levels, but there is a 20-30% chance of SCA level winds in the afternoon and evening hours.
Ca, NONE. PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Saturday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
