29/1002 PM.
Cooler conditions will occur today and Monday. More warm, tropical moisture could return Tuesday through Thursday. Marine layer clouds will gradually redevelop, and increase in coverage Sunday into early this coming week.
(Sat-Tue), 29/1005 PM.
***UPDATE***
The cooling arrived today right on schedule. Most areas today cooled 3 to 6 degrees. Most highs today ended up a few degrees blo normal except notably the SBA south cst and the VTA/LA county csts. Most areas will see another 3 to 6 degrees of cooling tomorrow.
The SBA-SMX gradient is at -4.4 mb and advisory level gusts have developed across the western portion of the SBA south coast. The advisory will continue through 0600 Sunday.
The low cloud potential seems pretty low and low clouds will likely only occur across the SBA county west coast.
Current forecast is in good shape and no updates are planned.
***From Previous Discussion***
More noticeable cooling is expected for Sunday, followed by below normal temperatures by Monday due to trough to the north impacting the region.
The marine layer is likely to become more established with greater inland coverage by Monday morning, due to falling 500 mb heights, less mid and upper level moisture, and increasing onshore flow.
Tuesday and Tuesday night, there is around a 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms focused over LA and Ventura County. This is a result of more tropical mositure that may be shuttled into the region, as the bottom of an upper level trough dips into SoCal.
(Wed-Sat), 29/1249 PM.
There is a small chance that tropical moisture and thus showers and thunderstorm risk will linger into Wednesday, but is most likely to be dry. Otherwise mostly quiet weather with a gradual warming trend is favored for Wednesday into the following weekend. An upper level troughing pattern appears likely for a fairly long duration, which will maintain a robust marine layer at the coasts and coastal plains. Somewhere around September 7-9th there are signals for another round of tropical moisture to impact SoCal.
30/0505z.
At 0430Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 900 feet deep with an inversion to 2900 feet with a temperature of 28 degrees C.
Low confidence in TAF at KSBP with a 40% chance for LIFR-IFR conds from 07Z-17Z.
Moderate confidence in TAF for KSMX. There is a 30% chance for no low clouds. Otherwise timing of arrival may be off by 2 hours and there is a 20% chance for VLIFR conds and FG.
High confidence in VFR TAFs at remaining sites. Less than 10% chance for IFR conds for LA County coastal sites 10Z-17Z.
KLAX, High confidence in TAF. There is less than 10% chance of BKN005-009 conds 10Z-17Z. Good confidence in any east wind component remaining below 7 kt.
KBUR, High confidence in TAF.
29/725 PM.
High confidence in Small Craft Advisory (SCA) northwest winds (20-30 knots) and steep, choppy seas for the outer waters. These hazardous conditions will reach into the nearshore waters along the Central Coast and into the Santa Barbara Channel at times (especially during the afternoon/evening hours). Local wind gusts may approach 35 knots near Point Conception in the afternoon and evening hours through tonight. Conditions are expected to improve Monday with only local SCA level wind gusts near Point Conception Monday and Tuesday. Chances for more widespread SCA winds increase Wednesday into the remainder of the week.
Ca, Wind Advisory in effect until 6 AM PDT Sunday for zones 349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX). Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Monday afternoon for zones 354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Sunday for zones 645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
