Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard Ca

218 pm PDT Sat apr 25 2026

Synopsis

25/104 PM.

Cooler weather is expected over the weekend with scattered light showers, mainly this afternoon and evening. Dry weather is then expected for most areas Sunday and Monday. Below normal temperatures will continue through the middle of next week with another weak storm possible around late Tuesday or Wednesday.

Short Term

(tdy-Tue), 25/136 PM.

A weak low pressure system is slowly moving into central and southern California. There have been a few reports of rain drops along the Central Coast but as expected showers are going to be few and far between with minimal amounts and impacts. Light shower activity should increase in areal coverage later this afternoon and evening but some areas will see little to no rain, particularly in the shadow of the Transverse Range. Breezy conditions are expected in the desert through tonight but below the 45mph threshold for a wind advisory.

Sprinkles or light showers may carry over into Sunday morning, mainly the Central Coast and in the mountains, otherwise still cool Sunday with temperatures in the 60s, 6-12 degrees below normal. A little more sunshine is expected across coast and valley areas south of Pt Conception Sunday but inland areas will take until later in the day to clear.

Much more typical spring southern California weather Mon/Tue with clear skies and temperatures warming back into the 70s by Tuesday.

Long Term

(Wed-Sat), 25/218 PM.

Still quite a bit of uncertainty mid to late next week as another weak upper level low approaches the area Wednesday. The system is partially cut off from the jet stream so timing is an issue and it's lacking in moisture. Models have been slowing the arrival of this system and it now looks like it will be at least Thursday before it arrives locally. There are some small rain chances in the forecast but will probably need another few days to get a better handle on it.

Following that, weak high pressure will return to the West coast through Saturday for warming temperatures.

Aviation

25/1745z.

At 17Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor an inversion.

Moderate confidence in TAFs. BKN-OVC MVFR to Low VFR conds will continue at all non desert sites through the day. Ocnl light rain is likely from 22Z onward for most sites.

KLAX, Moderate confidence in TAF. Cigs will likely vary between 025 and 040 through the day. Occasional -SHRA is possible from 25/22Z through 26/12Z. No significant east wind component expected.

KBUR, Moderate confidence in TAF. Cigs will likely vary between 020 and 040 through the day. Occasional -SHRA is possible from 25/22Z through 26/12Z.

Marine

25/116 PM.

For the Outer Waters, high confidence in current forecast. From this afternoon through Sunday, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels. Chances for SCA level winds will increase from Monday afternoon onward. Seas will increase Wednesday onward and flirt with advisory levels (10 ft) 30 NM from shore Thursday into Friday.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. High confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels through Monday morning. Chances for SCA winds will increase each day next week. Seas are likely to remain below advisory levels through this timeframe.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. SCA level W winds are expected across the Santa Barbara Channel this afternoon through midnight. Winds will approach advisory levels for the waters south of Point Mugu during this timeframe. These onshore winds will occur again on Sunday for the same waters but could be slightly stronger. Advisories may be needed for both inner waters zones Sunday afternoon through the evening. Generally moderate chances for SCA winds each afternoon and evening across the western half of the SB Channel next week.

A weak system will bring spotty showers across the coastal waters Today into Tonight with a slight chance of showers lingering into Sunday (especially morning hours).

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Ca, NONE. PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect until 2 AM PDT Sunday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).

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