03/941 PM.
Warmer temperatures with locally gusty Santa Ana winds will continue through Thursday. The winds and temperatures will peak Wednesday. Cooler temperatures are expected Friday and over the weekend but highs will still be at least 4-8 degrees above normal. There will be a chance of rain by next Tuesday.
(Tue-Fri), 03/951 PM.
***UPDATE***
Offshore flow, sunny skies and rising hgts all combined today to raise almost all max temps by 3 to 6 locally 8 degrees. A few beaches did not feel the effects of the offshore flow and cooled a a couple degrees.
The current gradients are about 4 mb offshore both from the N and the E and are forecast to between 5 and 6 mb offshore by Wednesday morning. These gradients combined with weak easterly flow aloft will bring advisory level winds to the Santa Ana wind corridor through early Wednesday afternoon. The wind advisories were slightly expanded in area earlier.
The offshore flow has cleared all of the low clouds and skies will be clear for the at least the next 36 hours.
The current forecast is in good shape and no updates are planned.
***From Previous Discussion***
Wednesday is still expected to be the peak of this mini heat wave though it will only be slightly cooler on Thursday as gradients start to trend onshore. Hi res models are still indicating increasing Santa Ana winds tonight into Wednesday as offshore flow increases to around 6.5mb. At least low end advisory level winds are expected Wednesday morning into early afternoon across the usual favored areas including the LA Mountains and through the Hwy 14/126/118 corridors all the way to the Ventura County beaches and several miles offshore. Temperatures are expected to easily reach the 80s in most coast/valley areas and as high as the mid to high 80s which would 15-22 degrees above normal and near record breaking.
Another very warm day expected Thursday, but with weakening offshore gradients temperatures should be 2-4 degrees cooler in most areas. The exception being the far interior areas on the inland side of the coastal mountains where temperatures will warm slightly.
Additional cooling of 3-6 degrees is expected Friday as ridging shifts east and is replaced by a weak upper low. Overall, highs will be still be 3-6 degrees above normal.
(Sat-Tue), 03/210 PM.
Ensemble solutions continue to favor dry conditions this weekend into at least Monday as a positively tilted ridge replaces the weak trough over California. Gradients are expected to trend slightly offshore Saturday and Sunday and this combined with the ridging over the state should lead to at least a few degrees of warming in most areas, though highs generally topping out in the 70s.
However, this feature too will rather quickly be replaced by a stronger upper level trough and low pressure system finally nudging out the month-long ridge along the West coast. This will bring a return to much cooler temperatures, mostly low to mid 60s that should continue through the week. Rain chances start as early as Monday night along the Central Coast as the first of a couple frontal systems come through California next week. However, rain chances are higher later Tuesday into Wednesday as a stronger upper low approaches. Ensembles are still just indicating light amounts of rain through the end of next week, mostly under a a half inch.
04/0545z.
At 0500Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor an inversion.
High confidence in VFR TAFs for 06Z TAF Package.
Moderate confidence in winds.
Light LLWS and Turbulence possible over and near mountainous terrain focused across Los Angeles & Ventura counties thru pd.
NE-E winds (15-20 kt) may surface thru 18Z Wed & again after 00Z Thursday at KSBP.
KLAX, High confidence in TAF. Good confidence in any east wind component remaining below 8 kts through 06Z Thursday, moderate confidence thereafter.
KBUR, High confidence in TAF. There is a 30% chc NE-E winds of 15-20 kt to surface between 12Z and 00Z Thursday.
03/943 PM.
For all the Outer Waters and the Inner Waters north of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Offshore northeast winds will develop each morning through Thursday near Morro Bay, generally below SCA levels. There is a 40-50% chance for localized east wind gusts near SCA levels around the Channel Islands Wednesday morning into early afternoon. Winds Wednesday evening into Thursday afternoon are trending stronger, with a 40% chance of SCA level easterly winds north of the Channel Islands. Another round of SCA level winds and seas across the outer waters will be likely Friday into Saturday, and SCA winds may linger into the following week.
For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate confidence in current forecast. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for Santa Ana NE winds late tonight into Wednesday afternoon, however, it may need to be extended through Thursday morning. East to northeast SCA level winds are expected from Ventura south to Santa Monica and out past Anacapa Island, as well as potentially through the San Pedro Channel (less confidence in this area though) for the late night to morning-late afternoon hours through Thursday. Additionally, localized Gale Force wind gusts will be likely nearshore below mountain canyons and passes, with a 30-40% chance of extending north to Ventura and out to Anacapa Island late tonight through Wednesday afternoon. Otherwise, conds will remain below advisory levels until northwest winds potentially increase to SCA levels across the waters early next week, especially Tuesday.
Ca, Wind Advisory in effect until 2 PM PST Wednesday for zones 88-358-369-371-372-374. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory now in effect from 4 AM to 2 PM PST Wednesday for zones 354-355-362-370. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory now in effect until 2 PM PST Wednesday for zones 375-376-378>380. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PST Wednesday for zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
