10/257 AM.
Warm and dry conditions with sunny skies are expected at least through mid week, with breezy northeast winds at times. A noticeable cooling trend will start Thursday, with temperatures falling to near normal by Friday. Rain is likely at some point between late this week and early next week.
(tdy-Thu), 10/932 AM.
***UPDATE***
The warm offshore pattern continues today. In fact, offshore gradients have actually increased slightly this morning and there are a few areas where winds are gusting to 30-40 mph, mainly in the Ventura mountains and in the Santa Lucia's. Despite that most areas are trending a little cooler this morning. Overall expecting a very similar day as yesterday with highs around 10 degrees above normal.
***From Previous Discussion***
Very little to talk about as the stretch of very pleasant if unexciting weather continues.
Today and Wednesday srn CA will be covered by a ridge with hgts around 584 dam. Offshore flow from both the north and east will continue through the period. Skies will be clear through the two day period save for a few low clouds across western SBA county each morning. The offshore push will be a little stronger this morning than on Monday and there will be some canyon winds. The winds will strongest across portions of the Central Coast where they could approach advisory levels. The stronger offshore flow will likely bring a few degrees of warming to the csts and vlys today. The offshore flow will also bring cooler air into the interior. Max temps will end up in the 80s or 10 to 12 degrees above normal. Wednesday will be quite similar to today just a little less offshore flow - so a little less winds and a degree or two of cooling.
A large trof will approach the west coast on Thursday and will push the ridge to the east and hgts will fall through the day reaching 568 dam by the afternoon. The offshore flow will also flip to onshore. Most areas will cool 2 to 4 degrees, but the Central Coast which will be closest to the approaching trof will see 4 to 6 degrees of cooling. Despite the cooling max temps will remain about 8 degrees above normal.
(Fri-Mon), 10/257 AM.
Still not much if any clarity on the xtnd fcst. At least three large systems will smash into the PACNW. The first is slated to pinch off an upper low that is fcst to move into Baja during the day Friday. There now seems like there might be a lull between systems Sat and Maybe Sun and then maybe a stronger system sometime Monday thru Wednesday. There has not been much run to run consistency with the mdls and even less agreement between individual mdls so confidence really remains quite low.
Some rain seems very likely sometime Friday and Saturday although amounts will probably be on the light side. There does seem to be some consensus that Sunday will be the day least likely to have rain although there still is some chc. The details on the system early next week are still quite fuzzy but now it looks like it will be the biggest and wettest.
Hopefully the forecast will begin to coalesce later today or tomorrow.
10/1753z.
At 1654Z at KLAX, there was a weak inversion with a base at 800ft. The top of the inversion was at 1500 ft with a temp of 22 C.
High confidence in VFR TAFs for all sites.
KLAX, High confidence in VFR TAF. Any east wind component is expected to remain below 7 kts.
KBUR, High confidence in VFR TAF. No wind issues expected.
10/804 AM.
For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Seas are still lingering near 10 ft but observations have showed a steady decrease over the last 12 hours. Seas will remain slightly below SCA levels this afternoon through Wednesday. Expecting 10+ ft seas to return Thursday through at least Sunday, with models indicating potential for wave heights 15 to 20+ ft. At this time the peak looks to be Saturday afternoon into early Sunday.
For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Conditions are expected to remain below SCA levels through Wednesday. SCA level seas could return as early as late Thursday afternoon peaking into the weekend.
For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels for the southern Inner Waters through Thursday. SCA winds will then be possible at times Friday night through Sunday, mainly across the Santa Barbara Channel during the afternoon to evening hours.
There is a chance of showers sometime from Thursday night into the weekend across the coastal waters.
Ca, Coastal Flood Advisory in effect until noon PST today for zones 87-340-346-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). High Surf Advisory in effect until noon PST today for zones 340-346-354-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). Beach Hazards Statement in effect until noon PST today for zones 349-350. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect until noon PST today for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
