17/1018 PM.
Warmer temperatures are expected this week with some locally breezy Santa Ana winds Monday morning. The warmest day will be Wednesday with slow cooling the rest of the week along with a return of night and morning low clouds and fog.
(Sun-Wed), 17/1015 PM.
***UPDATE***
High temperatures varied across the region today, with warm upper 70s to low 80s over the interior, and cooler 60s to 70s elsewhere. Highs only reached the upper 50s for many spots along the Central Coast where gusty northwest winds limited warming. For tonight, expecting redevelopment of marine layer clouds favoring LA County, however clouds may be short-lived as easterly winds start up. Looking at a good 3 to 6 degree warming trend for coasts and valley areas as offshore flow develops. Currently, no significant changes needed for the forecast with wind advisories starting late tonight over the mountains of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties. A warming trend is expected through Wednesday.
***From Previous Discussion***
West to northwest winds are starting to decrease as gradients trend offshore through Monday morning. Still expecting some gusty northwest winds in the Antelope Valley through this evening as well as southwest Santa Barbara County.
Otherwise, the offshore push will peak Monday morning with gradients around -2.5mb to the east. This probably won't be enough to completely remove the marine layer influence out of LA/Ventura Counties so probably little to no Santa Ana winds at lower elevations. But in the LA Mountains above 3000 feet some gusts to around 40 mph are possible Monday morning. High temperatures most everywhere Monday will see a bump from 5-10 degrees.
A similar light offshore pattern continues Tuesday and Wednesday but with slowly decreasing wind support aloft, which was already not that strong to begin with. 90% of the warming for the week will be on Monday, except in the Antelope Valley where the main warming will delayed to Tuesday, with temperatures up 5-10 degrees. Elsewhere, highs Tue and Wed will only increase by a degree or two. Any morning stratus will be patchy and brief.
(Thu-Sun), 17/1006 AM.
Look for a benign upper level pattern to return Thursday and continue through Saturday. At the same time onshore flow will increase some each day. This will reinvigorate the marine layer stratus and most csts and some vlys will wake up to clouds each morning. Winds will not be an issue. Max temps will fall 3 to 6 degrees across the csts/vlys on Thursday. All areas will see 3 to 4 degrees of cooling Friday. Saturday's cooling of 1 to 2 degrees will bring max temps down into the upper 60s through the upper 70s across the csts and vlys.
18/0229z.
At 2328Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 5000 ft deep. The top of the inversion was at 8000 ft with a temperature of 10 C.
Good confidence in TAFs for KPRB, KSBP, KPMD and KWJF.
Low confidence in 00Z TAFs for KSMX, KOXR and KCMA due to uncertainty in marine layer clouds. Winds may gust up to 25 kt by 16Z at KCMA and KOXR, and there's a 30% chance for northeast winds remaining below 10 kt at KOXR.
Moderate confidence in the remainder of the TAFs due uncertainty in the clearing time of marine layer clouds.
KLAX, Moderate confidence in TAF. MVFR conds could arrive anytime between 05Z and 08Z. Moderate to high confidence in east wind component 6-10 kt between 08Z-17Z.
KBUR, Moderate confidence in TAF due to timing of low clouds. MVFR conds could arrive anytime between 04Z and 08Z.
17/710 PM.
For the Outer Waters, high confidence in current forecast. Tonight through Monday night, high confidence in combination of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas. For Tuesday through Friday, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels.
For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, high confidence in current forecast. Tonight through Monday morning, high confidence in a combinations of SCA level winds and seas. From Monday afternoon through Friday, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels.
For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, high confidence in current forecast. Through tonight, SCA level winds are expected across the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel with conditions remaining below SCA levels elsewhere. For Monday through Friday, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels.
17/152 PM.
A combination of strong winds, large seas, and moderately high evening high tides may lead to high surf with minor coastal flooding possible into Monday morning. High Surf advisories and Beach Hazard statements have been issued across the entire coastline. Please refer to CFWLOX for more details for your area.
Hazardous surfing and swimming conditions are expected with strong rip currents. Minor beach erosion and minor coastal flooding is possible, mainly during tonight's high tide.
Ca, Wind Advisory in effect from 7 AM to 3 PM PDT Monday for zone 88. (See LAXNPWLOX). High Surf Advisory in effect until 9 AM PDT Monday for zones 340-346-354. (See LAXCFWLOX). Beach Hazards Statement in effect until 9 AM PDT Monday for zones 349-350-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect from 3 AM to 3 PM PDT Monday for zones 375>380. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 AM PDT Monday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT Monday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
