22/251 AM.
Gusty northerly winds will continue across southern Santa Barbara County through early Monday. Otherwise, warmer temperatures are expected today then turning cooler Monday and Tuesday with increasing night and morning low clouds and fog.
(tdy-Tue), 22/905 AM.
***UPDATE***
The marine inversion this morning ranged from about 400 ft deep at VBG to near 2500 ft deep at LAX. Very strong offshore pressure gradient trends to the E (LAX-DAG -6.1 mb in 24-hours as of 15Z) has helped to keep low clouds away from most areas, with varying amounts of low clouds confined mainly to the L.A. County coast into the San Gabriel Vly. These low clouds should dissipate before noon. Otherwise, sunny skies can be expected across the forecast area thru this afternoon.
There was some leftover sub-Advisory level NW-N wind gusts over portions of the L.A. County mtns and SW SBA County this morning. Breezy to gusty SW-NW winds can expected this afternoon for many areas as pressure gradients start to trend onshore.
Temps across the region today are forecast to be several degrees warmer than Sat, but highs should still be about 2-10 deg below seasonal norms. Afternoon temps should top out from the upper 60s and 70s along the coast to the upper 70s and 80s over the vlys, lower mtns and deserts.
***From Previous Discussion***
While winds are expected to drop off quickly across the I5 region today and remain relatively light the rest of the week, we're still looking at one more night of gusty winds in southern Santa Barbara County tonight with gusts to 35-45 mph.
Aside from the winds, the forecast is fairly dull. Several degrees of warming are expected today across inland areas as onshore flow is weakening rapidly. The warmup will be short lived as another low pressure system will drop south through California and sit over the Central Valley Monday and Tuesday. This will increase onshore flow again leading to cooler temperatures and a return to night and morning low clouds and fog, especially along the Central Coast.
(Wed-Sat), 22/316 AM.
Weak high pressure is expected to return Wednesday and remain through the end of the week. As a result, temperatures will increase back to near (or even slightly above) normals for this time of year. Not expecting any strong winds during the period except for the typical Antelope Valley breezes each afternoon. Overall, very seasonable weather next week that will likely carry into the following week.
22/1808z.
At 1644Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 2000 ft deep. The top of the inversion was at 4500 ft with a temperature of 17 C.
Overall, moderate to high confidence in 18Z TAF Package.
High confidence in VFR TAFs for desert airfields (KPMD, KWJF). Moderate confidence in remaining TAFs. For sites with forecasted CIGs, arrival and departure times may be off by an hour or two, with minimum flight cats off by one. Also, there is a 20% chance IFR CIGs arrive at KSBA from 14Z to 18Z Sun.
KLAX, Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. Arrival and departure of MVFR CIGs 012-025 should be within +/- 1 hour of forecast. There is low chance (15%) CIGs initially arrive high-end IFR. There is a 40% chance of east wind component reaching 8 kts from 10Z to 16Z Mon.
KBUR, Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. There is a 40% chance IFR/MVFR cigs arrive from 10Z to 16Z Monday (+/- 1 hour).
22/809 AM.
Winds are weakening quicker than expected, so lowered all the hazards one category. The waters beyond 20 miles from shore will remain in Small Craft Advisory (SCA) through at least early Monday morning. Local Gale force gusts to 35 kt this evening cannot be ruled out across the Outer Waters. Moderate chances of low-end SCA winds Tuesday afternoon and evening. Winds will likely increase by 5-10 knots Wednesday and Thursday.
While low confidence based on the recent poor performance of our best computer projections, SCA are possible this afternoon and evening for the nearshore waters of the Central Coast and the Santa Barbara Channel (western half has highest chances). Otherwise, fairly seasonal conditions are likely for the rest of the week.
The currently widespread steep seas will slowly subside through Tuesday.
Ca, NONE. PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect until 11 PM PDT this evening for zones 645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 AM PDT Monday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
