29/1226 PM.
Dry and warmer weather is expected into next week, but a return of low clouds and fog will moderate coastal temperatures. Sunday and Monday will likely be the warmest with highs 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Locally gusty north winds over the weekend.
(tdy-Mon), 29/137 PM.
A cold upper low is finally exiting California setting the stage for warmer weather ahead. 4-8 degrees of warming Saturday will bring temperatures back to near normal in most areas, though there will still be a marine layer presence across many coast and valley areas in the morning morning hours. The only other weather issue tomorrow is some gusty northwest winds along the Central Coast as well as southwest Santa Barbara County and the Antelope Valley, but likely below advisory levels.
On Sunday pressure gradients to the east and north will push temperatures up another few degrees at the coast and as much as 8 degrees higher inland. Generally even in light offshore patterns forecast highs tend to land in the higher end of the possible outcomes, especially inland, so forecast highs are a few degrees above NBM levels during this stretch. With this in mind highs in the warmer valleys have around a 60-80 percent chance of reaching the lower 90s by Sunday while intermediate areas between the coast and valleys (including Downtown LA and interior portions of the coastal plain) should reach the lower 80s. Coastal areas will still be influenced by the marine layer, keeping highs there in the 60s to lower 70s.
For Monday models have been consistent indicating a weakening of the offshore flow to the east and north. This will lead to either little change or slight cooling across most coast/valley areas. However, far interior areas like the Antelope Valley and interior SLO County will experience a few degrees of warming with highs in the low to mid 90s. Winds are expected to be lighter as well.
(Tue-Fri), 29/132 PM.
While heights will continue to rise through Tuesday, most of the models solutions show a baggy trough continuing along the West coast, maintaining light to moderate onshore flow and keeping highs withing a few degrees of normal. There is a very small percentage solutions that swing gradients back to lightly offshore by Wednesday which would result in additional warming. And some warming is still the likely outcome for far interior areas which tend to mirror the height trends more than the gradients. But for coast and valleys the most likely outcome is slight cooling, but highs still within a few degrees of normal. There also will likely still be a marine layer for most coast and valley areas, which is typical for this time of year.
For the rest of the week just minimal day to day changes with dry weather and temperatures near normal. However, ensemble gradients are favoring an increase in onshore flow Thursday and Friday which would favor at least a minor cooling at least for coast and valleys, though 500 and 850mb heights are trending up slightly which would suggest either little change or slight warming for interior areas.
29/1737z.
At 1630Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer or inversion.
Overall, moderate confidence in 18Z TAF Package. Timing of CIG/VSBY restrictions may be off +/- 2 hours and flight minimums off by one category.
KLAX, Moderate confidence in TAF. Arrival and clearing times of MVFR CIGs 015 (+/- 300ft) could be off +/- 2 hours from current forecast. There is a 15% chance east wind component reaches 7-8 kts from 09Z-14Z Saturday.
KBUR, Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 40% chance MVFR CIGs do not develop from 08Z-15Z Sat. No wind issues expected.
29/203 PM.
For the outer waters from the Central Coast to San Nicolas Island, SCA conditions will develop this afternoon and are expected to persist through the forseeable future.
Chances for Gales: Friday Night (20%), Saturday Night (50%) and Wednesday Night (60%). The nearshore waters likely to see SCA conditions each afternoon and evening through Sunday.
For the Santa Barbara Channel, SCA conditions are likely for the western portion through Saturday, possibly Sunday. For all other waters, SCA conditions unlikely through at least early next week, but choppy seas are likely each afternoon and evening.
Ca, NONE. PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Saturday for zones 645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 AM PDT Monday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
