06/746 PM.
Weak onshore flow will continue to bring limited low cloud cover to the coasts and coastal valleys each night through morning over the next several days as temperatures warm across the region. Interior temperatures will likely reach 100 degrees or higher across the interior valleys Tuesday through Friday. A Heat Advisory is in effect for non-coastal areas starting at 10 AM Tuesday and starting at 10 AM Wednesday for the Los Angeles County Inland Coast - including Downtown Los Angeles.
(Mon-Thu), 06/909 PM.
***UPDATE***
Temperatures warmed to near normal temperatures for southern areas, and still saw a good deal of below normal temperatures along the Central Coast where marine layer clouds lingered. Highs reached the 80s to the 90s for the interior, and cooler 60s and 70s by the coasts. Expecting marine layer clouds to return tonight to the Central Coast, and we may see an increase in clouds south of Point Conception as the inversion reforms. Generally, expecting temperatures to trend warmer over the next few days. Sundowner winds are expected to reoccur through Wednesday night, and will likely need wind advisories each night over the western portions of Santa Barbara south coast. The current forecast looks on track, but may need to warm highs a bit further this week.
***From Previous Discussion***
Mostly sunny skies and slightly warmer than normal temperatures are being observed across the local area today. While the marine layer will return to parts of the area overnight, limited coverage is anticipated over the next several days as weak onshore flow is realized and temperatures continue to warm across the region.
As a result, the main weather focus over the course of the week will revolve around temperatures, in combination with gusty winds for some areas, and more widespread elevated to brief critical fire weather concerns due to very warm and dry conditions.
Regarding maximum temperatures, expect a steady climb upward through Wednesday as strong high pressure aloft retrogrades west across southern California. This will result in above normal temperatures areawide, with temperatures peaking Wednesday afternoon before leveling off well above normal Thursday. These above normal temperatures are highlighted in the most recently updated heat advisory.
Winds are also a concern in the short term, especially across the southwest coast of Santa Barbara county where Sundowner winds are expected the next couple of evenings. For tonight, expect northwesterly winds to gust up to 45 MPH, with even stronger (50 MPH+) and potentially more widespread winds possible Tuesday and Wednesday evenings. At this point, only a wind advisory is in effect for this area to cover tonight expected winds.
(Fri-Mon), 06/246 PM.
Several items of concern continue into the extended forecast periods as well above normal temperatures are expected to linger into Friday and there will be a potential for some monsoonal moisture to work its way across the local area late in the weekend into early next week. While temperatures will moderate a bit over the weekend and heights aloft will weaken as the main area of high pressure centers itself across the northern Rockies, even warmer temperatures look possible across the local area as we look into week 2.
Given the ridge holding on across the local area into Friday, expect one more day of well above normal temperatures to linger across the local area and extended the current heat advisory into Friday evening early in the day to reflect this. Temperatures should then moderate and cool a couple degrees over the upcoming weekend as the main area of high pressure lifts northeast. This will result in a southeasterly upper level flow pattern across the area to steer some monsoonal moisture across the area late in the weekend and into early next week, which combine with a few weak embedded disturbances, could bring a small chance for some thunderstorms across the higher terrain and deserts by this weekend or Monday.
07/0223z.
At 2335Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1000 ft deep. The top of the inversion was 1700 ft deep with a temperature of 24 C.
High confidence in VFR for KBUR, KVNY, KPMD and KWJF.
Moderate confidence in cigs for KSMX, KSBP and KPRB. Low confidence in cigs for remaining TAF sites, with a 20-30 percent chance of IFR cigs/vsbys.
KLAX, Moderate confidence in TAF with a 30 percent chance of at least brief IFR/MVFR cigs/vsbys 08-17Z. No significant easterly wind component expected.
KBUR, High confidence in TAF.
06/754 PM.
High confidence in Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level NW winds persisting through at least Thursday across the Outer Waters. There is a 40-60% chance of GALE Force winds Tuesday afternoon through Thursday. Winds will likely be strongest near Point Conception and the Channel Islands, extending south to San Nicolas Island. Short- period, advisory level, choppy seas will gradually increase in height, reaching around 10 ft by mid-week and then subsiding below advisory levels Friday into the weekend.
SCA level NW-W winds will affect the inner waters along the Central Coast and the Santa Barbara Channel during the afternoon and evening hours through Wednesday or Thursday. There is a 40-60 percent chance of GALES Tuesday and Wednesday in the western Santa Barbara Channel, and a 40-50% chance of Gales along the Central Coast Wednesday and Thursday.
For the inner waters adjacent to Los Angeles County, moderate confidence in SCA level gusts through Tuesday night. Otherwise, conds are expected to remain below SCA levels.
Ca, Heat Advisory remains in effect from 10 AM Tuesday to 8 PM PDT Friday for zones 38-88-343>345-353-372-373-375>380-548. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect until 6 AM PDT Tuesday for zones 349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX). Heat Advisory remains in effect from 10 AM Wednesday to 8 PM PDT Friday for zone 368. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect from 10 AM Tuesday to 3 AM PDT Wednesday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 2 PM PDT Tuesday for zones 650-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect from 2 PM Tuesday to 3 AM PDT Wednesday for zones 650-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 10 PM PDT Tuesday for zone 655. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
