22/126 PM.
Showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms will continue through this evening. A quiet Friday will transition into a weak Santa Ana Wind event this weekend, bringing drier conditions and warmer temperatures to the region into next week.
(tdy-Sun), 22/124 PM.
A morning defined by numerous of strong showers and thunderstorms across all four counties led to a slew of Flood Advisories, Special Weather Statements, and even a couple of Severe Thunderstorm Warnings and Flash Flood Warnings. As the upper level low responsible for the active last 36 hours continues to move eastward, subsidence on the backside of the upper low will help to inhibit the vertical growth of storms, thus we are expecting the most significant weather to have already passed. However, the Flash Flood Warning in eastern LA County will continue into the afternoon, as will many of the Flood Advisories. Scattered showers and maybe a couple thunderstorms may develop into the early afternoon, but not expecting the magnitude or number of storms as we saw this morning.
Dry and warmer weather will return Fri-Sun with light offshore winds in place. At this time any offshore winds are expected to mostly below advisory levels, and remain confined to the mountains and some valleys. Temperatures will warm to near or slightly above normal, so not nearly as warm as last week.
(Mon-Thu), 22/124 PM.
A weak Santa Ana event will continue into next week, allowing for warmer (near normal high temps) and drier conditions to prevail. Winds will most likely remain confined to the mountains and some valleys. Onshore flow is expected to return around mid week with temperatures returning to normal levels. There are some model solutions indicating a return of wet weather just after Halloween.
22/1754z.
At 1715Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor an inversion.
Overall, moderate confidence in 18Z TAF package. Under any showers and thunderstorms MVFR conds is likely. Otherwise VFR conds are expected for the most part.
KLAX, Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. Conditions should mostly remain VFR with MVFR possible at times. Isolated to widely scattered showers across the area through 23/18Z. Low chance of a thunderstorm or two (10-15%) through this afternoon. Good confidence that any east wind component remains below 8 kts.
KBUR, Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. Isolated to widely scattered showers across the area through 23/12Z. Low chance of a thunderstorm or two (10-15%) through this afternoon. VFR CIGs expected except MVFR conds possible under any activity.
22/105 PM.
For the Outer Waters, high confidence in current forecast. Gusty Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds likely are likely at times by this evening and continue through Friday night. For Saturday through Tuesday night, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels.
For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. There is a 20-30% chance of SCA level winds at times through Friday evening. Otherwise, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels through Tuesday night.
For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Through Tuesday night, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels for most areas. The only exceptions will be the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel with a 50-70% chance of SCA level winds late Friday afternoon and evening and a 40% chance of SCA level wind gusts for the southern waters Monday evening.
Through this afternoon into early this evening, scattered showers will affect the coastal waters, with isolated thunderstorms possible for the southern inner waters. Any thunderstorms that develop will be capable of producing gusty/erratic winds, locally rough seas and even waterspouts.
Ca, Flood Watch in effect until 6 PM PDT this evening for zones 348>353. (See LAXFFALOX). Flood Watch in effect until 4 PM PDT this afternoon for zones 362-369-370. (See LAXFFALOX). PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect from 2 PM Friday to 3 AM PDT Saturday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Saturday for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 6 AM Friday to 3 AM PDT Saturday for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
