23/524 AM.
A relatively quiet Friday will transition into a weak Santa Ana Wind event this weekend, bringing drier conditions and warmer temperatures to the region into next week.
(tdy-Sun), 23/911 AM.
***UPDATE***
The weather is settling down today with just a few little showers left over, mainly in western Santa Barbara County in the northwest flow. Can't completely rule out a brief shower in other others through the morning but otherwise dry with highs in the 60s and 70s. Light onshore flow today will switch to light offshore Saturday and continuing well into next week. Some low end Santa Ana winds are likely, mainly in the LA Mountains Sunday or Monday.
***From Previous Discussion***
The main upper level low has weakened and moved over into the Great Basin. A progressive shortwave has phased with another main trough in the PACNW resulting in an elongated piece of vorticity. This will move south and deepen over Socal. With this feature, we can expect weak northerly flow, ascent, and enough orographic lifting to generate some showers tomorrow afternoon & early evening over interior Ventura and San Gabriels mountains. Any shower that develops will likely dissipate as it moves south towards the LA Basin due to downsloping. However, these showers could hang together long enough to see a few raindrops over San Fernando and San Gabriel Valleys. Rain Chances: 10-25% highest over mtns.
By Saturday, Sunny skies should prevail. Although weak, offshore flow should peak in the morning indicated by LAX-DAG/SMX-BFL (east) -2 mb and LAX-BFL -4 mb (north) resulting in sub-advisory winds confined to typical Santa Ana wind corridor. Strongest across the San Gabriels topping out 35-40 mph in favored terrain such as ridgetops. 500mb heights should rise some and pressure gradients should climb back to the neutral territory on Sunday resulting in light winds and a few degrees of warming away from the coast. Temperatures should be near normal by this point. A shallow marine layer may return to Central coast.
(Mon-Thu), 23/524 AM.
A weak Santa Ana event will continue into next week, allowing for warmer (near normal high temps) and drier conditions to prevail. These winds will likely stay confined to the mountains and some valleys struggling to reach advisory levels even in favored spots such as Santa Susana and San Gabriels mtns (30% chance). By Wed or Thurs, onshore flow is likely to return. There are some model solutions indicating a return of wet weather just after Halloween.
23/1224z.
At 0926Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor an inversion.
Overall, moderate confidence in 12Z TAF Package. Isolated showers roughly through 23/15Z for KSMX. Mainly VFR CIGs 030-050 with occasional (likely brief) MVFR CIGs 015-030. After 24/00Z, VFR CIGs should scatter out.
KLAX, Moderate confidence in 12Z TAF. SCT-BKN 035-060 with occasional (likely brief) MVFR CIGs 020-030 through 24/00Z. Good confidence that any east wind component remains below 8 kt.
KBUR, Moderate confidence in 12Z TAF. SCT-BKN 035-060 with occasional (likely brief) MVFR CIGs 020-030 through 24/00Z. Slight chance for a light shower this afternoon into early evening - with a very low chance of a lightning strike (5%). No wind issues expected.
23/816 AM.
Gusty west to northwest Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds will impact most of the waters today through tonight, including the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel, potentially extending into the eastern portion as well. Seas will build to near 10 feet across portions of the outer waters through this evening. Otherwise, relatively quiet conditions are expected through the weekend except for localized SCA northeast wind gusts nearshore from Point Mugu through the Malibu coast in the morning hours Saturday & Sunday.
Northwest winds will increase next week, with around a 50% chance of SCA level winds Monday through at least mid-week.
Ca, NONE. PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect from 2 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Saturday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
