26/1152 PM.
Hotter than normal conditions will continue for the foreseeable future. Slight cooling is possible Monday through Thursday, with heat increasing again Friday through Sunday. The hot and humid conditions during the day and night will bring elevated risks of heat-related illness.
(tdy-Wed), 27/129 AM.
Pretty dull (but warm) weather on tap for the short term. The upper level pattern will not change much over the next 72 hours with a powerful 597 dam upper high centered over the TX and OK panhandles. At the sfc there will be mdt-stg (strongest in the late afternoon) onshore flow to the east. The N/S gradient will vary from weak offshore in the morning to weak onshore in the afternoon.
The morning low cloud pattern will not change much at all. The low clouds will be likely across the LA csts and the western SBA cst. There will also be a 30-40 percent chc of low clouds reaching the VTA csts as well as the SLO cst.
There will be another round of gusty Sundowner winds across southwest Santa Barbara County the winds look a little weaker than last evenings and will likely come in just under advisory levels.
Today will be the last day of the current heat advisory as the combination of 95 to 101 degree temperatures and higher than normal humidity will continue the hazardous heat levels. There will be a a degree or two of cooling for most areas Tuesday and Wednesday as hgts fall a little. More importantly drier air will sweep in from the NW (PWATs fall from 1.07 to .70) and this will make the lower temps feel even better. That said the higher than normal sea sfc temps will keep humidities a little above normal.
(Thu-Sun), 27/252 AM.
On Thursday the upper high begins to migrate back to the west. It will eventually sit atop of AZ. The high will also strengthen to 600 dam. Hgts over Srn CA will rise to 596 dam on Thursday and then peak at 598 dam on Fri and Sat. 598 dam would match the highest hgt recorded in July during the period 1999-2025. There will not be much change in the sfc pressure and onshore flow will continue through the period save for very weak offshore flow from the north around sunrise.
1 to 2 degrees of warming Thursday will be followed by 3 to 6 locally 8 degrees on Friday. Most areas will see another 2 or 3 degrees of warming Saturday. Sunday's temps will be similar to Saturday's. By Saturday the vlys max temps will reach 100 to 110 degrees while the lower mtn elevations and far interior sections will see max temps from 105 to 112 degrees. Even the normal cool beaches will be in the 80s. All max temps will be 10 to 15 degrees above early August normals.
Its hard to imagine a scenario where there will not be a plethora of heat advisories/warnings in place for Friday and the weekend. The chc for heat products is over 90 percent.
Also have to keep a close eye on rapidly strengthening Hurricane Genevieve west of Mexico. While the projected path keeps it well south and west of the border due to strong anticyclonic flow aloft, it's likely to create another surge of dangerous south swells, perhaps as early as later this week.
27/1726z.
At 1630Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1400 ft deep. The top of the inversion was near 4700 ft with a temperature of 24 Celsius.
High confidence in TAFs for KBUR KVNY KPMD KWJF and KPRB.
Moderate confidence in TAFs for KLGB, KLAX KSBP and KSMX where the arrival and departure times of CIGs could be off by +/- 2 hours. Min CIG heights may be off by +/- 200 feet, with a 20% chance for VLIFR conds at KSMX/KSBP.
Fair confidence in TAFs for KSBA and KCMA with only a 15 percent chc of IFR cigs 13Z-17Z.
Moderate confidence in TAFs for KOXR and KSMO with a 30 percent chc of IFR/LIFR cig/vis 12Z-17Z.
KLAX, Moderate confidence in TAF. Cigs could arrive as early as 07Z and as late as 12Z with transition to VFR sometimes 28/15Z-18Z. High confidence in any east winds staying under 8 knots.
KBUR, High confidence in CAVU TAF.
27/938 AM.
For the outer waters, moderate to high confidence in the current forecast. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds are expected most of the time through Thursday night. Periods of gales are possible through much of the week. A GALE WARNING has been issued for the Outer Waters from late this afternoon through late tonight, highest confidence in the northern two zones. After a lull Tuesday morning, additional gales are possible again Tuesday night. SCA level steep and choppy seas are also expected due to the persistent, moderate to strong winds.
For the inner waters north of Point Sal, generally high confidence in the current forecast. SCA level wind gusts should be prevalent much of the time through Wednesday evening followed by conds dropping below SCA levels for Thursday and Thursday night. Steep choppy seas are expected much of the time as well.
For the southern inner waters, moderate to high confidence in the current forecast. The western Santa Barbara Channel will likely see SCA level wind gusts at times mainly in the afternoon and evening hours through Tuesday night, and a SCA was issued for this afternoon through tonight as winds are projected to reach portions of the eastern half of the Channel. Otherwise and elsewhere, conds are expected to remain below SCA levels through Thursday night.
27/938 AM.
An extended period of a combination of moderate to long period southerly swells will continue through this week. A long 17-20 second period SSW Southern Hemi Swell will continue to impact our area through mid week. Then Category 5 Hurricane Genevieve will send a 12-15 second period SSE to S swell to SoCal Tuesday.
A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect through Wednesday due to the increased risk of dangerous rip currents across the coastal beaches, as well as elevated surf of 3-6 ft across the Los Angeles and Ventura County Beaches. There are strong longshore currents, and powerful breaking waves due to the long periods which are contributing to the dangerous water conditions reported from area beaches, with numerous rescues also reported.
There is a moderate to high chance for a High Surf Advisory to be issued for the Hurricane Genevieve swell for exposed south facing beaches of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties. Additionally, tides will continue to rise and peak around 6-7 feet (highest down south) in the evening hours through Thursday night. This may cause some minor coastal flooding as the elevated southerly swell will coincide with the high tides.
Ca, Heat Advisory remains in effect until 8 PM PDT this evening for zones 38-88-342>345-348>358-362-366>382-548. (See LAXNPWLOX). Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Wednesday afternoon for zones 340-346-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). Extreme Heat Warning in effect until 8 PM PDT this evening for zone 383. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Tuesday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
