22/355 PM.
Mild weather is expected through the weekend, with daytime highs generally within a few degrees of normal. May gray low clouds and fog will spread over the coasts and valleys each night through morning period. Monday into at least the middle of next week, well below normal temperatures are likely with areas of gusty evening winds.
(tdy-Mon), 22/135 PM.
Mild weather conditions are expected through Monday. Today deep marine layer stratus has been rather slow to clear at some coastal areas, particularly Santa Barbara County northward. The clouds may last for much of the day at some beach locations. Daytime highs will cool a few degrees compared to yesterday, and breezy southwest winds will occur across inland San Luis Obispo County and the Antelope Valley this afternoon and evening, though will stay below advisory levels.
Temperatures will be within a few degrees of normal for most areas with little change each day through the weekend. Expect highs in the upper 60s to upper 70s across the coasts and most valleys, and mid to upper 80s for the warmest valleys and the Antelope Valley. Then Monday, a small trough will pass through the region and highs will cool a few degrees.
Moderate to strong onshore flow will maintain the low clouds and fog overnight and each morning. The marine layer may deepen each day and spread well into the inland valleys (such as the Santa Clarita Valley) by either Saturday or Sunday morning. The onshore gradients will support continued gusty southwesterly winds across the deserts each afternoon. Onshore flow is favored to peak Monday, thus winds across the deserts are likely to be greatest at that time (30 to 45 mph gusts) and wind advisories may be needed.
(Tue-Fri), 22/135 PM.
A low pressure system is favored to drop into the Great Basin Tuesday through Thursday. The cold airmass will result in a cooling trend, bringing most highs to 5-10 degrees below normal (mid 60s to mid 70s common). May Gray will continue through at least mid next week due to moderate to strong onshore flow, and drizzle will be possible in some foothill locations.
Additionally the low will bring an increase in northwesterly flow across the area. Winds will be the strongest on Tuesday afternoon and evening. Northwest to westerly gusts of 20 to 35 mph are favored along the Central Coast and beaches of Southern Santa Barbara County and Ventura County. Northwest gusts of 30-45 mph are possible for southwestern Santa Barbara County. Southwest gusts near Advisory Level are likely across the Antelope Valley as well.
By Friday, the low pressure system is favored to exit the area to the east, and 500 mb heights will trend upwards. Temperatures will trend upwards, warming to within a few degrees of normal.
23/0140z.
At 2355Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1500 feet deep. The top of the inversion was 4200 feet with a temperature of 18 Celsius.
High confidence in KWJF and KPMD TAFs. Low confidence in KPRB TAF, with a 40% chance of IFR ceilings Sat 11-16Z. Moderate confidence in all other TAFs, where flight cats could be off by 1 flight cat, and changes could be off by +/-3 hours.
KLAX, Moderate confidence in TAF. Flight cat changes may be off by +/- 3 hours. No significant easterly wind component is expected.
KBUR, Moderate confidence in TAF. Flight cat changes may be off by +/- 3 hours.
22/1247 PM.
High confidence in fairly quiet conditions through the weekend with minimal risks of Small Craft Advisories (SCA) except for very localized winds of 20 to 25 kt just south of Point Conception each evening.
Winds and seas will be rising for Monday through Thursday. High confidence in SCA conditions for the outer waters from the Central Coast to San Nicolas Island. Moderate risk for SCA for the nearshore Central Coast waters and the Santa Barbara Channel, with a low risk elsewhere. Choppy seas will be building everywhere as a result of those winds.
Ca, NONE. PZ, NONE.
