25/1217 AM.
Dry conditions are expected through at least Friday with above normal temperatures and gusty Santa Ana winds at times from Tuesday through Thursday. A cooling trend will develop next weekend with areas of gusty north winds.
(tdy-Thu), 25/903 AM.
***UPDATE***
No changes in thinking from below. We may issue another Frost Advisory for the same interior areas again tonight, potentially to include the Salinas Valley.
There's about a 10 percent chance that winds come in strong enough for a low end Wind Advisory Wednesday morning to early afternoon.
Given significant holiday travel that day, be prepared for occasional moderate crosswinds when driving, especially if driving a higher profile vehicle on elevated roadways.
Dry weather is expected to prevail through the middle of next week when unsettled weather may return.
***From Previous Discussion***
Not much going on in the short term. At the upper levels, weak ridging will continue over the area with hgts ranging from 580 to 582 dam. At the sfc offshore flow will will continue through the period peaking Wednesday.
There will not be much in the way of clouds today. There will be some patchy low clouds across the LA cst and quite a few clouds in the interior SLO vly including the Paso Robles area. The stronger offshore flow will keep the coasts and vlys clear Wednesday, but the interior of SLO county may well be cloudy again as the offshore flow pushes low clouds into the area from the San Joaquin Vly. Thanksgiving looks cloudy as a grip of mid and high level clouds is forecast to move overhead.
As for winds, there is no upper of thermal support so any winds will have to totally rely on the sfc gradients. There will be some gusty north winds today but with only isolated advisory level gust. The winds will turn NE Wednesday morning and a weak Santa Ana wind event will ensue. The offshore gradients will both be around 5 mb. Again, with no upper support it is unlikely that there will be a need for advisories. Weakening offshore flow on Thanksgiving will likely only produce 15 to 25 mph canyon winds in the morning.
The downsloping offshore flow will bring 4 to 8 degrees of warming to the csts/vlys today. The interior will cool a few degrees as cooler air form the interior advects in. Max temps today will be about 6 degrees over normal across the csts/vlys with plenty of readings in the 70s. Hgts and offshore flow peak Wednesday and this should lead to 2 to 4 degrees of additional warming. This will push most max temps into the mid 70s to lower 80s. The decrease in offshore flow on Thursday along with lowering hgts and the increase in cloud cover will result in 2 to 4 locally 6 degrees of cooling. Despite the cooling most max temps will end up 2 to 4 degrees above normal.
(Fri-Mon), 25/311 AM.
Weak troffing sets up over the area on Friday. The high clouds will move off to the east and it will be a mostly sunny day. The offshore flow weakens to near neutral and this will bring 3 to 6 degrees of cooling to the csts and vlys despite the added sunshine. The added sunshine will bring several degrees of warming to
While there is still some uncertainty with the weekend forecast all mdls are trending drier. At this point it looks like there will be only a 20 percent chc of rain as almost all of the ensembles are showing more of dry inside track of the system. Even if rain does occur rainfall rates/totals will be very low, since the system originated from the interior and has no moisture source. No doubt about the cooling trend as increased clouds, lowering hgts and a return to onshore flow all gang up to lower max temps by 3 to 6 degrees each day. By Sunday max temps will mostly be in the lower to mid 60s across the csts/vlys.
Monday looks dry and windy as north flow sets up behind the departing low. At the same time moderate offshore flow from the north will develop. Increasing hgts and a return to sunny skies will bring a 2 to 4 degree warm up. Max temps will still be 3 to 6 degrees blo normal.
25/1739z.
Around 1714Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer. The top of the sfc- based inversion was at 2000 ft with a temperature of 19 C.
High confidence in VFR conds for all sites except KPRB, where there is only a 30% chance for VFR conds. Timing of cigs at KPRB may be off +/- 2 hours, and minimum flight cat off by 1 cat. For LA county coastal sites, less than 10% chance for VLIFR- LIFR conds from 07Z-17Z. Intermitent periods of 3-5SM vsbys are also possible at coastal and valley site.
KLAX, High confidence in VFR TAF. Less than 10% chance for OVC002-004 and vsbys 1/2SM-2SM vsbys 07Z-17Z. Good confidence that any east wind component will be under 8kt.
KBUR, High confidence in TAF. 20% chance for east to northeast winds 5-10 kts to surface 03Z-18Z.
25/830 AM.
Conditions will continue to improve well below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) criteria through today, and will remain relatively mild through Thanksgiving. There is a moderate chance of north- northeast winds gusting 20-30 knots nearshore from Ventura to Santa Monica tonight through Thursday, with strongest winds expected tonight into Wednesday afternoon. Localized wind gusts to 25 knots are possible nearshore along the Central coast, with best chances from Cayucos south to Morro Bay each night through morning this week.
Winds and seas will increase to SCA levels once again across the Outer Waters as early as Thursday night or Friday. Nearshore along the Central Coast and across the Santa Barbara Channel, winds will increase Saturday afternoon and night, to just below SCA levels.
There is quite a bit of uncertainty for this weekend, but there is a moderate to high chance of widespread SCA conditions, including nearshore. Seas will likely increase to around 10 to 12 feet across the outer waters, and 4 to 6 feet inside the Southern California Bight. There is a low chance of widespread Gale Force Winds this weekend.
Ca, NONE. PZ, NONE.
