08/225 PM.
Today marks the beginning of a warming trend as high pressure builds in from offshore. Desert areas will reach triple digit temperatures by mid week. Low clouds and fog are still expected across most of the coast and some coastal valleys during the overnight and morning hours through the end of the week. The marine layer will trend shallower through the week with skies clearing by late morning into early afternoon. Gusty sundowner winds are expected in western Santa Barbara County today and Tuesday. Winds will also pick up along the Central Coast Tuesday evening overnight into Wednesday.
(tdy-Thu), 08/225 PM.
The upper level trough that has been bringing cooler weather will begin to shift east of the region over the next couple of days as a ridge of high pressure builds in from offshore. With the transition to a ridging pattern will come an increase in temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday, most notably across coastal valleys and interior areas. Marine influences will still be felt along the coasts through Tuesday with moderate onshore flow. Wednesday, however, the onshore LAX-DAG pressure gradient weakens dramatically which will limit marine influences and bring warming to coastal locations typically kept cool by marine air. The warmest coastal valleys will see daytime highs rising into the mid to upper 90s by Wednesday. There remains a 20 percent chance of pushing into Heat Advisory territory across valleys including the southern Salinas, Santa Clarita, and western San Fernando Valleys.
Wind Advisories remain in place for northwest winds across southwestern Santa Barbara County and down the I-5 Corridor tonight into early Tuesday morning. Another period of strong northwest flow Tuesday may bring a second round of Advisory-level winds for the aforementioned areas as well as the immediate Central Coast Tuesday afternoon and evening.
(Fri-Mon), 08/227 PM.
Persistent high pressure and onshore flow will keep temperatures relatively consistent over the second half of the week into the weekend. Daytime high temperatures will run between 5 and 10 degrees above seasonal normals. Marine layer clouds will recur each morning, clearing by afternoon. Higher pressure will keep the clouds focused over the beaches and coastal plains with limited inland extent. Mid- level monsoonal moisture and instability is forecast to approach the southeast boundary of the forecast area Friday and Saturday, bringing a small (5 percent), but nonzero chance of thunderstorms over the San Gabriel mountains.
08/1824z.
At 1640Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 2700 feet deep. The top of the inversion was 4400 feet with a maximum temperature of 17 C.
High confidence in VFR TAFs for KPRB, KPMD, and KWJF.
Moderate confidence in remaining TAFs. Timing may be off +/- 2 hours, there is a 30-50% chance of IFR cigs tonight.
KLAX, Moderate confidence in TAF. Timing of flight category changes could be +/- 2 hours of current forecast, there is a 25% chance of IFR cigs tonight. Any east wind component is expect to be less than 6 kt.
KBUR, Moderate confidence in TAF. Timing of flight cat changes may be off +/- 3 hours, with a 20% chance of IFR cigs tonight.
08/244 PM.
For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. High confidence in a combination of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas through Thursday. Today and Tuesday, there is a 40-70% chance of Gale force winds over PZZ673 and PZZ676 during the late afternoon and night period, with the best chances today. In addition, localize Gale force gusts are also a possible over PZZ670 this afternoon and evening. SCA winds are likely to persist through Wednesday night, then weakening Thursday through Friday.
For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Through Wednesday, SCA level wind are expected, mainly in the afternoon and evening hours, with seas near or above SCA levels. On Thursday and Friday, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels.
For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. For a majority of the southern Inner Waters, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels through Friday. The only exception will be the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel, where there is a 40-60% chance of SCA level winds today and Tuesday, mainly in the late afternoon and evening hours. Conditions are expected to improve to below SCA levels winds Tuesday night and Wednesday, followed by weak winds Thursday and Friday.
Ca, Beach Hazards Statement in effect from Tuesday morning through Thursday evening for zones 87-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect until midnight PDT tonight for zones 349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect from 9 PM this evening to 10 AM PDT Tuesday for zone 378. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for zones 645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Thursday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 8 PM PDT this evening for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect from 8 PM this evening to 3 AM PDT Tuesday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
