03/428 PM.
Onshore flow will continue to bring low clouds to the coasts and coastal valleys each night through morning period. Weaker onshore flow will result in decreasing clouds in the valleys and gradually warming temperatures. Expect a return to near normal temperatures by early next week, with potential for above normal temperatures by mid-week.
(Fri-Mon), 03/823 PM.
Generally quiet weather is expected through the weekend for the most part, with temperatures remaining fairly stable. There will be a few degrees of warming on Saturday followed by slight cooling on Sunday. Starting Monday there will be a warming trend, initially to near normal temperatures, but with above normal highs likely by midweek. Winds will be mainly weak, except for onshore winds in the afternoon to evening hours, strongest through the passes and canyons of LA County into the Antelope Valley. On Monday northerly gradients along the Central Coast will result in Sundowner winds developing in the late afternoon and overnight hours, at this time looking to remain below Advisory levels.
The marine layer was somewhat shallower last night into this morning, with low clouds much more limited than previous nights. Expect a similar cloud pattern tonight into early Saturday under weakening onshore flow and slightly higher heights aloft. Most coastal areas will see low clouds overnight, spreading into some of the coastal valleys but not affecting the interior valleys. Decreasing marine layer clouds are then expected through the remainder of the short term and into the coming week.
High clouds will spread across the area tomorrow along with some increasing mid- level moisture. A weak impulse aloft will approach Point Conception from the south late Saturday afternoon with a low (around 10 percent) chance of convective storms developing. As low levels remain quite dry, there is also a low risk of dry lightning associated with this feature. The convective chances will persist through late Saturday evening.
(Tue-Fri), 03/146 PM.
High pressure aloft across the four corners area early next week will shift west through mid-week, helping to contribute to additional warming, with 500 mb heights peaking around 594 dam Wednesday afternoon. A weak trough of low pressure passing by to the north Wednesday evening will knock down upper level heights to end the week, before high pressure builds back across the southwest next weekend.
Overall, this is a dry weather pattern for the local area with above normal temperatures expected through at least the end of next week with weak onshore flow limiting the influence of the marine layer to mainly coastal locations. At this point, temperatures will likely peak several degrees above normal on Wednesday, and remain above normal for the foreseeable future with CPC outlooks continuing to heavily favor above normal temperatures through at least week 2. This will result in a minor (valley) to moderate (far inland) heat risk across the local area. Finally, an increased pressure gradient Tuesday through Thursday will result in a return to modest sundowner winds mid-week.
03/2339z.
At 2230Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer. There was a surface based inversion was 1700 feet deep. The top of the inversion was 3400 feet with a temperature of 22 C.
High confidence in 00Z TAFs at KWJF and KPMD.
For remaining airfields, moderate to high confidence that ceilings tonight into Sat morning should vary between 004 and 012. There is a 20%-30% chance of LIFR cigs at KSMX between 11Z-14Z Sat morning. Timing of low clouds could be off +/- an hour or two.
KLAX, High confidence in 00Z TAF. VFR conds can be expected thru about 04/11Z and again aft about 04/18Z. Low to mdt confidence on low cloud return timing aft 04/11Z. No significant easterly wind component is expected.
KBUR, High confidence in 00Z TAF. VFR conds can be expected thru about 04/09Z and again aft about 04/16Z. Mdt confidence in low cloud return timing around 04/09Z with cigs 004-007.
03/818 PM.
For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence remains for the current forecast. Through Saturday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels. For Sunday through Thursday, there is a 50-80% chance of SCA level winds. Seas will begin gradually increasing Sunday and will approach advisory levels mid-week.
For the Inner Water north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Through Sunday, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels. There is a 30% chance of SCA level winds on Monday and a 60% chance Tuesday & Wednesday.
For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Through Tuesday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels for most of the southern Inner Waters. The only exception will be the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel where there is a 50-80% chance of SCA level Sunday through Wednesday, mainly in the late afternoon and evening hours.
Ca, NONE. PZ, NONE.
