22/930 AM.
Minimal changes expected through the weekend with above normal temperatures. Patchy night and morning low clouds and fog will be confined to coastal areas, mostly north of Point Conception. Additional warming is possible next week as high pressure builds in from the southeast.
(tdy-Mon), 22/941 AM.
***UPDATE***
Expecting a very similar day today compared to yesterday with highs 4-8 degrees above normal but not quite to heat advisory levels. Temperatures this morning are actually running 1-3 degrees cooler than yesterday at the same time, but by the end of the day expecting highs to be within a couple degrees of yesterday.
Models continue to show little change in this pattern through at least Monday. After that most of the ensembles show increasing heat along with weakening onshore flow which cloud push some areas into heat advisories and possibly warnings in some areas.
***From Previous Discussion***
Few changes are expected through the weekend, with warm conditions persisting. The combination of hot daytime temperatures, warm overnight lows and some monsoonal moisture at mid to upper levels will continue to feel uncomfortably warm. Breezy winds are expected at times, with northerly Sundowner winds along the Santa Barbara Southwest coast and foothills, and gusty onshore winds over interior sections.
Not much change in the upper level pattern for Today, with 500 mb heights peaking around 593 to 594 dam. However, will see these heights fall a few dam for Sunday and Monday. Expecting fairly similar highs as yesterday for today, with limited marine layer clouds and similar strength in onshore flow. While the hottest areas are not quite widespread enough to warrant a Heat Advisory, some interior valley and mountain locations (Woodland Hills, for example) will reach around 10 degrees above normal. Caution is still advised for those working or recreating outdoors during the daytime.
Will likely see the typical afternoon to evening breezy onshore (Southwest) winds with gusts around 20 to 30 mph over the far interior today, including Antelope Valley. These winds should trend weaker over the next few days. Northerly winds will again develop during the evening hours for the Santa Barbara southwest coast with sub-advisory level winds expected through Sunday evening, possibly reaching advisory levels Monday evening.
As for the monsoonal moisture flowing over the area from the southeast, current high resolution guidance does not suggest any significant shower activity over the area for the next dew days. However, cannot rule out a stray shower or two in favorable interior locations.
(Tue-Fri), 22/533 AM.
High pressure is expected to build back into California, with warming Tuesday while at the same time pressure gradients from the north and east weaken. With high temperatures already on the verge of advisories and warnings through early next week, the next burst of heat Tuesday and beyond has at least a 40-60% chance pushing that over the edge to at least heat advisory levels and possibly into warning level, particularly inland areas. Ensemble guidance is trending towards at least 3 days of hot conditions, with some potential for additional mid-level moisture Tuesday. How widespread the heat hazards are will be largely be determined by the pressure gradients. If the gradients trend towards the 75th percentile or higher, which roughly would be around -3mb LAX- DAG and -4mb LAX- BFL, temperatures would on the higher side with numerous excessive heat warnings likely. If gradients have less of an offshore component per the latest GFS then temperatures will still be hot but at least a few degrees cooler. The latter scenario being the most likely outcome.
Still not seeing any big subtropical push next week, though there is minor peak in PW's on Tuesday and early Wednesday at around 1.2". However, warm ocean temperatures will likely continue to limit cooling overnight.
22/1754z.
At 1640Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 600 feet deep. The top of the inversion was at 3100 feet with a temperature of 28 C.
High confidence in most of the 18Z TAFs with VFR conds for nearly all airfields.
Moderate to high confidence for the TAF at KSBP as there is a 20%-30% chance of IFR cigs/vsbys about 11Z-16Z Sun morning. Otherwise VFR conds are expected.
Low to moderate confidence for the TAF at KSMX due to uncertainties with timing of low clouds and IFR/LIFR conds about 06Z-18Z Sun. Timing could be off +/- an hour or two.
KLAX, Generally hi confidence in the 18Z TAF with VFR conds expected. However, there is a 20% chance of IFR conds between 13Z-16Z Sun morning. If CIGs occur, the timing could be off by 2 hours. No significant east wind component is expected.
KBUR, High confidence in the 18Z TAF with VFR conds expected.
22/826 AM.
Small Craft Advisory (SCA) conditions likely continuing over the outer waters from the Central Coast to San Nicolas Island through tonight, lowering to moderate risk for Sunday and Monday. There is a moderate risk for the nearshore Central Coast waters each afternoon and evening through tonight, lowering for Sunday and Monday. Localized SCA level wind gusts are also possible for portions of the Santa Barbara Channel this afternoon and evening, especially near the Channel Islands. Elsewhere, the risk for SCA is low, with seasonal winds likely. Chances for SCA conditions will likely increase again including some nearshore waters by Wednesday.
Ca, NONE. PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect until 2 AM PDT Sunday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 11 PM PDT Sunday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 6 AM PDT Monday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
