30/156 PM.
Very warm conditions will continue through the weekend, with high temperatures 10 to 20 degrees above normal. Cooling with dense fog will bring a brief break around Monday, with warming again starting Tuesday or Wednesday. Gusty Santa Ana winds will be common through Saturday, and again Tuesday through Thursday of next week.
(tdy-Mon), 30/246 PM.
The current January warm and dry spell is a result of ridging aloft and offshore winds at the surface. Highs today were largely in the 80s, which is approaching 20 degrees above normal. So far today we are close to tying calender day records at some sites, including LAX, Long Beach, and Camarillo Airport. Little changes to the synoptic and surface weather pattern will result in similarly warm temperatures on Saturday, however the daily records are much higher for the 31st and are unlikely to be broken/tied. A weak low pressure system will impact the region, bringing a period of onshore flow and cooling temperatures starting late in the day Sunday. The marine layer is likely to reform Sunday night into Monday, and areas of coastal low clouds and fog will be possible. Monday will be the coolest day of the week but still likely to be near normal to several degrees above normal.
Local areas of gusty Santa Ana Winds will continue through Saturday and again (although weaker) on Sunday morning. This will result in windy conditions across the favored areas of the San Gabriel Mountains and the Santa Susana Mountains, as well as some foothills and valley areas across Los Angeles and Ventura Counties. Additional Wind Advisories will be possible for Saturday morning, and the winds may blow around unsecured objects and create some roadway hazards. Relative humidity will also remain very low through the day on Sunday, before the shift to onshore flow by Monday.
(Tue-Fri), 30/216 PM.
High pressure will start to build again on Tuesday and offshore Santa Ana Winds will resume due to upper level winds and surface pressure gradients. Winds speeds are likely to be slightly stronger for this next Santa Ana event compared to the current wind event, but are still likely to be moderate strength and generally Wind Advisory level or less. Winds will be the strongest in the typical windy corridor or LA and Ventura Counties, especially in the mountains and foothills areas. Temperatures will warm slightly on Tuesday compared to Monday, with most highs across the coasts and valleys will be in the mid 70s to low 80s. By Wednesday and Thursday, daytime highs and overnight lows will increase further with upper 70s to upper 80s widespread, and some calender day records may be broken. Confidence is rather high for this heat spell, with few ensemble forecast members suggesting a significantly different weather pattern. Uncertainty in the forecast increases by Friday, but some amount of cooling is favored.
There remains virtually no chance of rain through Friday February 6th. After that, the latest ensemble solutions indicate there is around a 50 percent chance of some rain (most likely light) during the week of February 9th. Given that we are currently in the rainy season for SoCal, this falls in line with general climatology.
30/2256z.
At 2230Z at KLAX, there was a surface-based inversion. The top of the inversion was 1100 feet with a temperature of 24 degrees Celsius.
For 00Z TAF package, high confidence in CAVU conditions for most sites through the period. The only exception will be KPRB where MVFR VSBYs are likely 11Z-17Z with a 20% chance of LIFR/VLIFR conditions.
Continued offshore flow will generate light LLWS and turbulence across the foothills and mountains through the period.
KLAX, High confidence in 00Z TAF as CAVU conditions are anticipated through the period. No significant easterly wind component is expected.
KBUR, High confidence in 00Z TAF as CAVU conditions are expected through the period.
30/148 PM.
For the Outer Waters and the nearshore waters along the Central Coast, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) seas are expected to drop off late this afternoon through Saturday. Saturday night through Tuesday SCA conditions are likely to return.
Inside the southern California bight, areas of SCA level north to northeast winds are expected for the nearshore coastal waters off the Ventura County Coast to Malibu late tonight through Saturday morning. The highest chance of SCA conditions will be along the coast between Point Mugu and Pacific Palisades. Winds and seas should drop below SCA levels on Saturday and continue at or below SCA levels through the weekend and into Tuesday. A return of SCA level northeast winds is possible between Tuesday night and Thursday.
Ca, Wind Advisory now in effect until 5 PM PST this afternoon for zones 88-374-375-379. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PST this evening for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
