10/910 AM.
Gusty Santa Ana winds will continue through at least the weekend, mainly across Los Angeles and Ventura Counties. There will be a slow warming trend into next week, though overnight lows will remain chilly.
(tdy-Mon), 10/925 AM.
***UPDATE***
Yet another day of Santa Ana winds across portions of LA/Ventura Counties. Peak winds overnight reached over 80mph in the San Gabriel Mountains and 65 mph throughout the Santa Susanna Mountains. In the Santa Monica Mountains and down towards the Malibu coast above 300 feet elevation wind gusts up to 58mph were reported. And across valleys and the Oxnard/Camarillo areas wind gusts were generally in the 30-50mph range.
For today, offshore gradients are up over 2mb from yesterday and most models project another 1-2mb increase tonight. Models also show more veering of the winds which will result in increased winds in some areas and less wind in others. Not expecting any significant changes in the forecast or the current slate of wind advisories and warnings.
***From Previous Discussion***
Upper level ridging over northern CA will take on more and more of a positive tilt. This will bring more and more upper level support to the Santa Ana and will shut off the strong winds coming through the more northerly oriented passes and canyons. On Monday the upper level flow turns back to the NE and weakens.
At the sfc there will be 4 to 5 mb of offshore flow from the north and 6 to 7 mb of offshore flow from the east. The offshore peak is forecast to be mid morning Sunday.
The winds today and Sunday will be similar and will reach warning levels (60 to 70 mph) in the mtns (including the Santa Monicas and Santa Susanas) with advisory level gusts (40 to 55 mph) across the western vlys of LA county, the eastern vlys of VTA county, the VTA county coast and the western portion of Malibu to the VTA county line. The winds will be much lighter across SLO And SBA counties (although gusts to 35 mph are likely over the Santa Lucias) as well as southern LA county. Both the sfc gradients and upper level support will be weaker on Monday so the wind will be weaker with just a 40 percent chc of advisory level gusts in some mtn areas.
Overnight lows are coming in a little cooler than fcst right now and it is likely that current low temperature fcst for tonight in the wind sheltered vlys is a little too high. Temps will be evaluated again after this mornings readings come in. But in general lows will have a split personality with windy areas coming in warmer than normal and wind free areas seeing much lower than normal temps. The warming air mass will help to mitigate some of the cooling Sunday night and Monday morning.
Friday's warming trend will continue through the period with 3 to 6 degrees of warming slated for today, 2 to 4 degrees Sunday and an additional 1 to 2 degrees on Monday. Max temps will end up near normal today and will rise to 2 to 4 locally 6 degrees over normal by Monday when max temps across the csts/vlys will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s.
(Tue-Fri), 10/1208 AM.
Picture Postcard weather will continue through the xtnd period and beyond. Upper level ridging or an actual upper high will be over the state through the period. Hgts will be well above normal ranging from 578 dam to 585 dam with peaking Wed and Thu. Offshore flow will continue through the entire period. While there will be gusty canyon winds each morning they will most likely not reach advisory levels. Look for 2 to 4 degrees of warming Tuesday then 1 to 3 additional degrees on Wednesday. Thursday will see little change in temps (SLO county will be the exception with several more degrees of warming). Wed/Thu highs will be about 10 degrees over normal with cst/vly highs mostly in the 70s but with a few 80 degree readings in the warmest vly locations. Overnight lows will continue below normal in wind sheltered areas due to the dry air and clear skies.
Both AI versions on the GFS and EC show no rain through the 21st and likely the 24th.
10/1059z.
At 0700Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer. There was a surfaced based inversion with a top at 1200 ft and a temperature of 14 C.
High confidence in CAVU TAFs. Lgt-ocnl mdt turbc and lgt LLWS over and near to hier trrn.
KLAX, High confidence in CAVU TAF. Lgt LLWS possible through the period. No significant east wind component expected (<7kts).
KBUR, High confidence in CAVU conditions. Low confidence in winds which may vary in both speed & direction thru the period. Lgt-ocnl mdt turbc possible as well as lgt LLWS.
10/911 AM.
Gusty northeast winds will create steep and hazardous seas and will persist each day through at least the weekend, with strongest winds in the morning hours. These winds will be focused from Ventura through Orange County excluding the Santa Monica Bay down to Palos Verdes hills. The winds will be strongest from Point Mugu thru Malibu, but will also impact the Channel & Catalina Islands. In addition, these winds will affect the waters from Santa Cruz Island to San Nicolas Island through at least Sunday possibly into next week.
There will be difficult-to-forecast variations in the winds and seas, especially in the afternoon and evening hours, but expect hazardous conditions at some point each day. These winds should weaken some Monday through Thursday, but could remain gusty.
Ca, Wind Advisory remains in effect until 1 PM PST Sunday for zones 88-354-355-358-362-370>372-374-376>378-381. (See LAXNPWLOX). High Wind Warning remains in effect until 1 PM PST Sunday for zones 369-375-379-380. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect from 9 PM this evening to 11 AM PST Sunday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 2 PM PST this afternoon for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until noon PST Sunday for zones 655-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
