14/529 PM.
A warming trend will continue through Wednesday, with dangerous heat expected for many areas through Thursday. Gusty northwest to north winds are forecast for southern Santa Barbara County and the LA and Ventura interior mountains during the afternoon and overnight hours through Wednesday. Cooler weather will begin to arrive on Thursday.
(Tue-Fri), 14/815 PM.
***UPDATE***
It was yet another humid and hot day today. The skies were mostly clear compared to yesterday, with afternoon cumulus clouds over the mountains. Temperatures today were in the 70s at the beaches, with 80 to 90s away from the coast, and low 100s in the warmest valleys - at least widespread 5 to 10 degrees above normal (and some even higher) for this time of year. However, no high temperature records were broken today. Overnight low temperatures will remain warm, with high 60s to low 70s away from the coast, providing little relief from the heat and adding to the heat stress (along with the higher humidities from the Southerly flow). High temperatures will peak tomorrow, with temperatures in the 80s across the beaches, 90s away from the coasts, and as high as 110 across the interior.
Please take extra precaution with the heat, stay in air conditioned areas (including cooling centers), drink plenty of hydrating fluids, and please do not leave anyone in cars without air conditioning for any length of time. Know the signs of heat stress and heat exhaustion.
As for winds, local advisory level NW to N wind gusts will affect the southern Santa Barbara Coast tonight (Sundowners), and widespread NW to N winds will increase tomorrow. Advisories will likely be needed for the Santa Barbara South Coast during the evening and overnight hours, and may be needed for the I-5 Corridor and Western Antelope Valley.
Forecast was in shape and no updates were needed.
***From Previous Discussion***
Convection over the mountains is starting to look interesting, particularly over the northern Ventura mountains and near Wrightwood. Hi res forecast models indicate slightly higher chances for a storm or two in the Ventura mountains near the border with Kern County versus the Wrightwood area.
Otherwise, temperature trends today have been a mixed bag with inland areas trending warmer (in some cases 10-15 degrees warmer) but coastal areas either little change or cooler due to an unexpected increase in onshore flow.
The forecast for Wednesday and beyond remains largely unchanged. Wednesday will be the warmest day of the week and possibly the summer so far. PW's are slowly decreasing but humidities will still be above normal and adding to the already high heat stress. Records are very high tomorrow and probably out of reach in most areas but some isolated records are possible. Overall, highs Wednesday will be 10-17 degrees above normal, ranging from 105-110 across the far interior areas, including Paso Robles and Woodland Hills, low to mid 90s downtown, and low 80s at the beaches. This is based on a forecast of light offshore flow tomorrow around 2mb which would delay the cooling sea breeze. If gradients remain onshore highs likely would be at least a few degrees cooler.
2-5 degrees of cooling are expected Thursday and an additional 4-8 degrees of cooling on Friday bringing temperatures back to within a few degrees of normal in most areas. PW's continue to fall but still remain above normal so still more humidity than usual but chances for mountain storms will be 10% or less after today.
(Sat-Tue), 14/217 PM.
Very little change in the pattern after Friday and through the middle of next week with daytime highs within a few degrees of normal. Day to day temperature trends will mostly be 3 degrees or less either way and generally tied to the pressure gradient trends. There is another little surge of tropical moisture this weekend as a decaying tropical storm moves up the coast. This could trigger another chance of isolated mountain convective into early next week, and PW's increase back up to around 1.5", so at the very least humidities will remain above normal making it feel hotter than it actually is.
15/0130z.
At 2340Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 700 ft deep. The top of the inversion was at 2800 ft with a max temperature of 29 C.
Moderate to high confidence in VFR TAFs at all sites, highest confidence away from coasts. There is a 30% chance for LIFR to IFR cigs at KLAX/KSMO/KLGB/KSMX after 08Z (except after 06Z at KSMX) until 17Z.
KLAX, Good confidence in TAF. There is a 30 percent chc of BKN004-007 cigs after 08Z-17Z Tue. No significant east wind component expected.
KBUR, High confidence in TAF
14/708 PM.
Northwest winds will increase this afternoon to Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels across the Outer Waters and will continue through Thursday night. There is also 40% chance of Gales later Wednesday into Thursday, but confidence is not high enough to warrant a Gale Watch at this point. This determination (Gale Warning or not) will likely occur with Wednesday morning's forecast package. Seas are forecast to build to near 10 feet in conjunction with these winds. The elevated winds and seas will extend into the western Santa Barbara Channel and nearshore waters along the Central Coast each afternoon and evening through Thursday night.
Winds are expected to improve Friday through the weekend while the northwest swell lowers. However, short period choppy seas from a southerly swell associated with a tropical system to our south and west will impact our waters this weekend.
14/201 PM.
Hazardous rip currents and breaking waves with elevated surf are expected for coastal areas and the beaches of Los Angeles, Ventura, Santa Barbara, and San Luis Obispo Counties, as enhanced southerly swell continues. Minor coastal flooding will be possible during the evenings, given abnormally high tides of 7.0 to 7.6 feet. A Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect through late Wednesday evening, with a chance it will be extended through Thursday evening.
For this weekend, distant storms over the East Pacific waters well south of the area could produce increasing southerly swell resulting in even more significant beach hazards.
Ca, Extreme Heat Warning in effect until 8 PM PDT Thursday for zones 38-88-349>353-356>358-368>375-378>383-548. (See LAXNPWLOX). Heat Advisory remains in effect until 8 PM PDT Thursday for zones 87-341>345-347-348-354-355-362-366-367-376-377-549-550. (See LAXNPWLOX). Beach Hazards Statement in effect through late Wednesday night for zones 340-346-349-350-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). Red Flag Warning in effect from noon Wednesday to 9 AM PDT Thursday for zones 349>353-376>378. (See LAXRFWLOX). PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
