14/335 PM.
High pressure and offshore flow will bring very warm and dry conditions across the region through the weekend. Gusty Santa Ana winds will continue through the end of the week, mainly across portions of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties. The warmest temperatures of the period will linger into Thursday, then a slow cooling trend will start Friday.
(tdy-Fri), 14/725 PM.
The latest water vapor imagery indicates broad and strong ridging aloft in place over the Western States. An offshore flow regime continues to be the main weather factor, keeping warmer and drier weather in place. Gusty Santa Ana winds with daytime temperatures well above normal will continue through the end of the week. Near record heat will persist across the region with temperatures falling close to daily record levels across the region.
The latest forecast guidance and 18Z EPS ensembles are starting to hint at more of an uptick winds for Friday and Saturday, with Saturday potentially be on the higher end of an advisory. Otherwise, low-end advisory level winds are likely to linger across the Southland into Thursday afternoon, but there is a likely chance that the wind advisories will need to be extended due to wind strengthening across the region.
A few tweaks to overnight low temperatures will be made in the wind-sheltered areas and interior valleys. Otherwise, the package looks to be in reasonable shape.
***From Previous Discussion***
A very slow (1-2 degree/day) cooling trend will likely begin Friday and last into next week but it's going to take most of next week before temperatures are back to normal levels.
(Sat-Tue), 14/206 PM.
Well above normal temperatures will continue through at least through Tuesday with highs in the in the mid 70s to mid 80s for most coast/valley areas. High pressure will start to break down around Wednesday with a return to onshore flow around that time as well which will bring temperatures back to near normal levels. The 18z GFS deterministic run actually shows a legitimate upper low coming through the area next Thursday and Friday, though the vast majority of the ensemble solutions indicate little to no rain until next weekend at the earliest.
15/0547z.
At 0503Z over KLAX, there was no marine layer. There was a sfc based inversion with a top at 900 ft and a temperature of 26 C.
High confidence in CAVU TAFs.
Wind timing may be off by +/- 2 hours.
KLAX, High confidence in CAVU TAF. Any east wind component will be 6 knots or less.
KBUR, High confidence in CAVU TAF. Moderate confidence in winds with a 30 percent chc of N to NE winds with gusts up to 22kt 12Z-21Z. Some lgt LLWS is possible aft 12Z.
14/113 PM.
Moderate risk of NE to E wind gusts of 20 to 30 knots from Ventura through Santa Monica tonight through Thursday morning, then again late Thursday through Friday and possibly into Saturday morning. These winds may fill more of the Santa Barbara Channel than usual and further out through the west Channel Islands through Thursday afternoon, but the southern Santa Barbara Coast will remain fairly calm. There is a clear enough lull in winds Thursday afternoon through late night to end the Small Craft Advisory (SCA), but another SCA is possible late Thursday into Friday afternoon.
NE wind gusts of at least 10 to 15 knots are also likely off the SLO County Coast and in the San Pedro Channel (including Catalina Island), with a low but non-zero risk of reaching 25 knots. Expect short-period choppy seas with these winds.
A long period west to northwest swell will fill in over the region through Thursday, but wave heights will stay under 8 feet through the weekend and into next week.
Ca, Wind Advisory now in effect until 2 PM PST Friday for zones 88-358-369-371-374>376-378>380. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PST Thursday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
