31/1153 PM.
Warm and dry conditions can be expected through most of this week. There will be some coastal low clouds and fog at times, but otherwise skies will remain mostly clear. There will be gusty onshore winds through most of the week.
(Mon-Thu), 01/905 PM.
***UPDATE***
High temperatures remained cool near the coasts today, and warmed into the 80s and 90s away for the valleys and interior areas. Marine layer clouds and fog will return each night, impacting much of the coasts and some valley locations. This will limit warming near the coasts, with interior areas trending a bit cooler Tuesday, and warmer Wednesday. Highs were cooled about 3-5 degrees in areas where marine layer clouds are expected Thursday morning. Otherwise the forecast looks on track.
***From Previous Discussion***
June arrives with its standard unexciting weather. At the upper levels there will be weak saggy broad troffing. Hgts will be near 586 dam which is very close to normal. Onshore flow will prevail through the period strongest to the east and in the afternoons.
Tuesday night and Wednesday will have a similar low cloud pattern. With the afternoon onshore push near 8 mb in the afternoon it is likely that some beaches will not clear.
The strong W to E pressure gradient will drive stronger than normal sea breezes as well as gusty winds in the Antelope Vly. There will be a little north push in the mtns Tuesday night but any winds will be under advisory criteria. Winds will likely be a little stronger into Wednesday afternoon to evening with a 30-50 percent chance of advisory level winds for Southwest Santa Barbara County and interior mountains near the I-5 corridor.
Max temps will fall across the csts and vlys Tuesday as the onshore flow increases. Tuesday's cooling will bring most csts/vly max temps to a few degrees blo normal. Mdls showing some warming on Wednesday due to the north flow, but this may well not work out depending on how strong the eddy and marine layer is.
A weak ridge will nose in from the west Thu with a few degrees of warming possible for the interior. If an eddy spins up from the northwest flow from the night before coastal to coastal valleys will likely see little change or even slight cooling into Thursday.
(Fri-Mon), 01/124 PM.
Hgts will fall over the weekend as a trof originating from a decent sized upper low that will move into the PACNW. There will be mdt to strong onshore flow each day, peaking Friday.
Night through morning low clouds and fog will continue for all 4 days. Some beaches may not clear until later in the afternoon on Thu, Sat and Sun. Friday looks to be a day of June Gloom due to the strong onshore flow both to the N and E. It is likely that much of the nearshore area will stay cloudy and cool.
The lowering hgts and strong onshore flow will lead to 3 days of cooling Fri-Sun. Weekend temps will mostly be in the 70s across the csts/vlys with upper 60s at the beaches and lower 80s in the warmest vly locations. These max temps are mostly 2 to 4 degrees blo normal.
02/0224z.
At 00Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1300 feet deep. The inversion top was near 2900 feet with a temperature of 20 C.
High confidence in KPMD, KWJF, and KPRB.
Moderate confidence in other TAFs. LIFR cigs are possible (30-40% chance) from KSMO and north, best chances for coastal sites north of KSMO. There is a 10-20 percent chance that VFR conds prevail for KBUR and KVNY.
KLAX, Moderate confidence in TAF with flight category changes likely within 2 hours of forecast. Any east wind component will remain below 6 kts.
KBUR, Moderate confidence in TAF with a 10 percent chance that VFR conds prevail.
01/851 PM.
For the Outer Waters from the Central Coast to San Nicolas Island, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Other than some localized Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds near Point Conception, expecting conditions to stay below hazardous levels tonight through Tuesday morning.
SCA winds are likely to return Tuesday afternoon through Thursday, with a 60-80% chance of Gale force winds over portions of the outer waters peaking Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning. There is a 30-40% chance that Gales may linger Thursday afternoon through Saturday, otherwise SCA winds will persist through the forecast period. Seas are expected to build to 10 to 12 feet Wednesday night and will likely persist through the weekend.
For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. After a relative lull, winds will increase to SCA levels Wednesday night through Thursday night, with a 30-50% chance of Gales Wednesday night and Thursday. Otherwise, SCA winds are likely to persist through Thursday night. After decreasing some Friday, winds may increase to SCA levels again Saturday.
For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. There is a 50-70 percent chance of SCA winds Tuesday late afternoon and evening and again during the same time frame Wednesday and Thursday across the western portion of the Santa Barbara Channel.
Ca, NONE. PZ, NONE.
