13/539 PM.
Warm but below normal temperatures will continue through Thursday, with coastal morning low clouds. Gusty Sundowner winds will continue through Monday. Temperatures are likely to increase towards the end of the week.
(Sun-Wed), 13/824 PM.
***UPDATE***
Fairly quiet conditions are expected through the short term. With the region in the midst of a several-day cooling trend, today's highs were in the 70s near the coasts, with 80s to lower 90s further inland. While low humidities were observed over the interior, closer to the coast conditions remain sticky providing less relief from the heat. Temperatures will continue to lower through Tuesday or Wednesday, with highs finally below 90 degrees across the area.
An upper trough will remain over the West Coast through the next several days, deepening Tuesday into Wednesday and onshore pressure gradients will strengthen. This will help drive the cooling trend, and will also result in a deepening marine layer and an expansion of low clouds from the coast across the coastal valleys. Low clouds are likely to remain quite limited tonight into early Monday, but are expected to be much more widespread Monday night into Tuesday and more so Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. A coastal eddy will help to push the clouds inland and may bring some patchy drizzle to portions of the area.
As for winds, gusty northerly winds along the Central Coast and SW Santa Barbara County have helped to keep the South Coast and Ventura Coast mostly clear of low clouds. Winds are subsiding along the Central Coast and the Wind Advisory there will be allowed to expire. Winds across western SBA South Coast and western Santa Ynez range are well within Advisory criteria, but the eastern range has so far remained below thresholds. However, gusts to 45 mph will be possible in the hills above Mission Canyon so will leave that part of the Advisory intact for now.
***From Previous Discussion***
Sunny skies prevailed this afternoon save for a few stubborn low clouds near Malibu and offshore. Temperatures are nearing the warmest of the day for most areas with widespread 70s and 80s and a smattering of low 90s. A bit drier area has worked into the area assisting with the cooler feel to the air, although dewpoints are still probably a bit above normal.
Wind hazards for later this afternoon to evening along the Central Coast to southwest Santa Barbara County look good. There is a 30 percent chance that a short-fused wind advisory will be needed for the I-5 corridor in the mountains late this afternoon through this evening.
Steady lowering in day-to-day temperatures remains in play through Tuesday for several reasons. One, an upper-level trough of low pressure over the western United States will amplify each day. Two, surface pressure gradients will remain healthily onshore. Three, gusty Central Coast and Sundowner winds will peak this evening, then quickly weaken. These winds have limited the low clouds and fog development recently, but come Monday and Tuesday all indications are for a huge coastal eddy forming in their wake with rapid low cloud development and expansion. Would expect a few random reports of drizzle as well. All of this will boost the temperature drop. With all that stated, highs will still generally be in the mid 70s to mid 80s which is not cold, but not hot either and below normal by 5 or 10 degrees.
Little change to the overall weather pattern is expected into Wednesday with continued slightly below normal temperatures with night to morning low clouds near the coast.
(Thu-Sun), 13/159 PM.
High pressure over the southeastern states will expand to the west Thursday through Saturday, but that expansion will be battling a small yet potent closed low spinning somewhere between San Fransisco and Portland. How those two features interact is still up in the air, with a fairly large spread in the ensemble projections in terms of the warmth of the air mass and the resulting high temperatures. A warming trend is very likely, but it could be only 5 degrees or it could be 15 degrees, or somewhere in between. The warmest scenario would knock on the door of some targeted Heat Advisories, but that is about a 20% chance at this point. The tropical Storm train off western Mexico looks to remain active through the week, but not seeing any significant moisture surge signals into California at this point.
14/0039z.
At 0008Z over KLAX, the marine layer was 1000 feet deep. The top of the inversion was 2600 feet and 24 degrees Celsius.
High confidence in VFR conditions through at least Monday at KPRB, KSBA, KPMD, KWJF. Some low-end LLWS is possible at KSBA this evening 03Z-10Z with gusty north winds in the nearby hills.
For Tonight: LIFR/IFR ceilings possible at KSBP (10%) KSMX (30%). IFR/MVFR ceilings possible at KOXR (20%) KCMA (20%) KSMO (60%) KLAX (60%) KLGB (70%) KBUR (20%) KVNY (20%). If restrictions occur at any of these sites, they could be of short duration or intermittent.
Moderate confidence in TAF timing (+/- 3 hours).
KLAX, Moderate confidence in the 00Z TAF. 60% chance of MVFR cigs 09Z-18Z Monday. If CIGs occur, they could be intermittent or short duration. Moderate confidence that any east winds will stay under 8 knots.
KBUR, Low to moderate confidence in the 00Z TAF. 20% chance of IFR/MVFR CIGs 12Z-16Z Monday, with at least MVFR vsbys in haze likely. CIGs could be intermittent or short term.
13/604 PM.
Moderate confidence in current suite of Small Craft Advisories (SCA) and Gale Warnings (GLW). High confidence that Gale Force winds will continue through Sunday night (tonight) across the outer waters. Upper-end SCA winds will continue for the nearshore waters along the Central coast and western Santa Barbara Channel through Sunday night (tonight), with a 50% chance of low-end SCA winds for Monday afternoon and night. These winds will generate a building short-period fresh swell over all waters.
High confidence in winds staying below SCA levels Tuesday through Wednesday or Thursday. Stronger than usual southeast winds are likely south of Point Conception however, especially on Tuesday morning. Local gusts 15-20 knots possible between the islands.
Ca, Wind Advisory in effect until 6 AM PDT Monday for zones 349-351-352. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday for zones 645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect until 6 AM PDT Monday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
