16/915 AM.
Near to slightly below normal temperatures are expected to continue this weekend with low clouds and fog lingering into the afternoon across coast and some valleys south of Pt Conception. Gusty winds are expected at times along the Central Coast, and across the mountains and deserts through the weekend, strongest today. Hazardous seas will affect the coastal waters over the next several days. Warmer temperatures are expected next week.
(tdy-Mon), 16/926 AM.
***UPDATE***
A rinse and repeat day today as the marine layer remains right around 4000 feet across LA County, sloping down to around 2500 feet along the Central Coast. The main changes today are stronger winds across the interior and a little earlier marine layer clearing in some areas as the inversion is weakening. Otherwise, temperatures will remain on the cooler side, mostly 60s to lower 70s across coast and coastal valleys and low to mid 80s across the far interior. And little change into Sunday.
***From Previous Discussion***
An inside slider dropping into the Great Basin this weekend will bring windy and dry conditions to the area.
As the inside slider pattern develops, northwesterly winds will increase across the area. The north to northwesterly offshore gradients will increase through tonight. This along with decent upper level support will bring warning-level gusts to the mountains, Antelope Valley as well as southwest Santa Barbara county. In addition advisory-level gusts will develop across the Central Coast later today day. Please see LAXNPWLOX for all the details for the HIGH WIND WARNINGS and WIND ADVISORIES that are in effect through Sunday night. The winds will shift to the northeast on Monday with a possibility some advisory level gusts across LA and VTA counties.
The strong winds and low humidities will likely bring widespread critical fire weather conditions to the Antelope Valley and the adjacent western foothills today. The rest of the interior will see elevated to brief critical fire weather conditions today. Elevated to brief critical fire weather conditions are expected across both the Antelope Vly and the interior sections on Monday.
Skies will be mostly clear through the period save for some morning low clouds across LA county and western SBA county. The low clouds will diminish some each day Sunday and Monday.
Look for 3 to 6 degrees of cooling today everywhere except for the SBA south coast where there will be 4 to 6 degrees of downslope warming. Increasing offshore flow and less marine layer will bring 1 to 3 degrees of warming to the csts/vlys on Sunday, but the interior will cool due to northerly cool air advection. The offshore flow and rising hgts will warm almost all of the areas 3 to 6 degrees on Monday. The SBA south coast will be the exception due to the lack of north flow.
(Tue-Fri), 16/242 AM.
A broad pos tilt long wave trof will cover most of the western CONUS Tue through Thu with its base draped over Srn CA. By Friday a weak high hgt (586 dam) upper low will develop to the west of the state.
The upper pattern will not be as important as the sfc pattern and here there is some mdl disagreement with the GFS (as usual) much more strongly onshore than the EC. The forecast follows the usually more accurate EC. Look for only minimal morning low clouds and fog. Max temps will warm 2 to 4 degrees each day for most of the area. Wednesday will be the warmest day with mostly 70s across the csts and 80s in the vlys (a few 90 or 91 degree reading are not out of the question). Onshore trends will knock a few degrees off of cstl/vly temps on Thursday followed by broad cooling on Friday.
16/1745z.
At 1621Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 3400 ft deep. The top of the inversion was at 5300 ft with a temperature of 15 C.
For desert airfields (KPMD & KWJF), gusty west winds are expected to reach 30-40kts. Strongest for KWJF where MVFR VSBYs 3-5SM with BLDU is possible (30-40% chance) through this afternoon.
Moderate confidence in remaining TAFs. Timing of FM groups could be off +/- 2 hours from current forecast.
KLAX, Moderate confidence in TAF. Timing of FM groups could be off +/- 2 hours from current forecast. There is a 50% chance that east wind component reaches 7-8kts from 10Z-16Z Sunday.
KBUR, Moderate confidence in TAF. No wind issues expected.
16/745 AM.
Dangerous sea conditions will continue through the weekend. These conditions could capsize or damage small and large vessels. Mariners should adjust plans NOW to remain in safe harbor.
GALE WARNINGS are in effect for the inner waters along the Central Coast, all the outer waters, and the Santa Barbara Channel this weekend. Please refer to MWWLOX for further details.
For the outer waters from the Central Coast to San Nicolas Island, high confidence forecast. Widespread, high-end, STRONG GALES will continue through the weekend. Local gusts may reach STORM FORCE late this afternoon into evening. The Gale Force winds will diminish overnight Sunday, then Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds will continue into late Monday night, with a 20% chance of lingering through Tuesday. As for seas, SCA level seas will continue to build through the weekend, becoming large 10-18 foot steep seas, then diminishing throughout Monday and Monday night.
For the inner waters along the Central Coast, high-end, STRONG GALE FORCE level winds are expected through Sunday evening. Winds will then drop below Gale force and even SCA levels overnight Sunday. As for seas, SCA level seas will continue through the weekend and could linger into Monday afternoon or early evening.
For the inner waters south of Point Conception, the GALE WARNING for the Santa Barbara Channel goes into effect this afternoon through late night, with a moderate risk of GALE FORCE winds again Sunday afternoon and evening. For the southern inner waters adjacent to the L.A. Coast, SCA conditions are expected this afternoon through Sunday morning. Highest seas and strongest winds expected across western portion. Localized GALE Force wind gusts are possible this evening near Anacapa Island.
Ca, High Surf Advisory in effect until 9 AM PDT Monday for zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX). Wind Advisory remains in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening for zones 340-341-346>348. (See LAXNPWLOX). Beach Hazards Statement in effect from 3 PM PDT this afternoon through Monday morning for zones 349-350. (See LAXCFWLOX). High Wind Warning remains in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM PDT Sunday for zones 349-351>353. (See LAXNPWLOX). High Surf Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM PDT Monday for zone 354. (See LAXCFWLOX). Beach Hazards Statement in effect from 6 PM PDT this evening through Monday morning for zones 362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). High Wind Warning remains in effect until 9 AM PDT Sunday for zones 376>378. (See LAXNPWLOX). High Wind Warning remains in effect until 11 PM PDT Sunday for zones 381-383. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory remains in effect from noon to 11 PM PDT Sunday for zone 382. (See LAXNPWLOX). Red Flag Warning in effect until 10 PM PDT this evening for zones 381-383. (See LAXRFWLOX). PZ, Gale Warning in effect until 9 PM PDT Sunday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect until 5 AM PDT Sunday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM PDT Sunday for zone 655. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
