15/139 PM.
Near to slightly below normal temperatures are expected to continue this weekend with low clouds and fog lingering into the afternoon across coast and some valleys south of Pt Conception. Gusty winds are expected at times along the Central Coast, and across the mountains and deserts through the weekend, strongest on Saturday. Hazardous seas will impact the coastal waters over the next several days. Warmer temperatures are expected next week, especially in the desert.
(Fri-Mon), 15/736 PM.
Overall, latest models remain in good synoptic agreement through the short term period. Main feature of note will be an inside slider dropping into the Great Basin this weekend, bringing windy and dry conditions to the area.
Forecast-wise, the main concern in the short term will continue to be the winds. As the inside slider pattern develops, northwesterly winds will be on the increase across the area. Models indicate increasing northwesterly offshore gradients increasing through Saturday night along with decent upper level support. Based on ensemble solutions, there is a good chance of warning- level gusts across the mountains, Antelope Valley as well as southwest Santa Barbara county, with a good chance of advisory-level wind across the Central Coast on Saturday. So, current slate of HIGH WIND WARNINGS and WIND ADVISORIES look very much on track in these areas through Sunday night. Please see LAXNPWLOX for the latest details on these wind products. On Monday, the winds will shift to the northeast and there will be some gusty northeasterly winds across LA and Ventura counties which could reach advisory levels.
A secondary concern this weekend will be fire weather. Based on the forecast winds and low relative humidity, elevated to brief critical fire weather conditions are expected across interior sections into Monday. Across the Antelope Valley and the adjacent western foothills, there is moderate confidence in widespread critical fire weather conditions on Saturday and RED FLAG WARNINGS remain in effect for these areas on Saturday. If any fire does ignite, it could spread very quickly, given the wind and humidity conditions.
Otherwise, no major issues are expected through Monday. With the northwesterly winds and some colder air filtering in, the areal extent of the marine layer stratus is expected to diminish from night to night. Other than this marine layer stratus, skies should remain mostly clear through Monday. As for temperatures, with less marine layer clouds, coastal and valley areas should see a slight warmup through the period, but interior areas will cool slightly at the same time.
(Tue-Fri), 15/736 PM.
For the extended, current models indicate nothing too exciting in the offing for the area. Synoptically, an upper level trough will remain draped over the area through Wednesday, but with a gradual increase in H5 heights. For Thursday and Friday, models develop a weak upper low off the Southern California coast.
Forecast-wise, the above scenario will result in no significant weather issues. Temperatures will exhibit a warming trend for all areas through Wednesday with most areas topping out in the mid 70s to mid 80s. For Thursday and Friday, this trend will reverse with a gradual cooling trend expected. As for clouds, there will continue to be some marine layer stratus, but confidence in the areal extent will remain low. Otherwise, mostly clear skies will continue across the area.
16/0045z.
At 0007Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1800 ft deep. The top of the inversion was at 5000 ft with a temperature of 19 C.
High confidence in KPMD & KWJF TAFs.
Moderate confidence in remaining TAFs. Timing of CIG/VSBY restrictions may be off +/- 3 hours and flight minimums off by one category.
KLAX, Moderate confidence in TAF. Timing of flight cat changes could be off by +/- 3 hours, with cigs arriving anywhere between 03-06Z. Good confidence that any east wind component remains below 7 kts.
KBUR, Moderate confidence in TAF. Timing of flight cat changes may be off by +/- 3 hours. No wind issues expected.
15/814 PM.
Dangerous sea conditions are expected over the weekend, and could capsize or damage small and large vessels. Mariners should adjust plans NOW to remain in safe harbor.
GALE WARNINGS are in effect for the inner waters along the Central Coast, all the outer waters, and the Santa Barbara Channel this weekend. Please refer to MWWLOX for further details.
For the outer waters from the Central Coast to San Nicolas Island, high confidence forecast. Widespread, high-end, STRONG GALES are expected this weekend. Local gusts may reach STORM FORCE late Saturday afternoon into evening. The Gale Force winds will diminish overnight Sunday, then Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds will continue into late Monday night, with a 20% chance of lingering through Tuesday. As for seas, SCA level seas will continue to build through the weekend, becoming large 10-18 foot steep seas, then diminishing throughout Monday and Monday night.
For the inner waters along the Central Coast, high-end, STRONG GALE FORCE level winds are expected through Sunday evening. Winds will then drop below Gale force and even SCA levels overnight Sunday, then SCA level wind gusts will affect the waters during the afternoon and evening hours on Monday. Winds will remain below SCA levels Monday night through Wednesday. As for seas, SCA level seas will continue through the weekend, and potentially linger in Monday evening.
For the inner waters south of Point Conception, the GALE WARNING for the Santa Barbara Channel goes into effect Saturday afternoon through late night, with a moderate risk of GALE FORCE winds again Sunday afternoon and evening. For the southern inner waters adjacent to the L.A. Coast, SCA conditions are expected Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning. Highest seas and strongest winds expected across western portion. Localized GALE Force wind gusts are possible Saturday evening near Anacapa Island.
15/518 PM.
A combination of strong winds, large seas, and moderately high evening high tides may lead to high surf with minor coastal flooding possible this weekend. High Surf advisories and Beach Hazard statements have been issued across the entire coastline. Please refer to CFWLOX for more details for your area.
In general, hazardous surfing and swimming conditions are expected. Minor beach erosion and coastal flooding is possible, mainly during the evening high tides.
Ca, High Surf Advisory in effect until 9 AM PDT Monday for zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX). Wind Advisory remains in effect from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Saturday for zones 340-341-346>348. (See LAXNPWLOX). High Wind Warning in effect from 3 PM Saturday to 9 AM PDT Sunday for zones 349-351>353. (See LAXNPWLOX). Beach Hazards Statement in effect from Saturday afternoon through Monday morning for zones 349-350. (See LAXCFWLOX). High Surf Advisory in effect from 3 PM Saturday to 9 AM PDT Monday for zone 354. (See LAXCFWLOX). Beach Hazards Statement in effect from Saturday evening through Monday morning for zones 362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). High Wind Warning in effect until 9 AM PDT Sunday for zones 376>378. (See LAXNPWLOX). High Wind Warning in effect until 11 PM PDT Sunday for zones 381-383. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory remains in effect from noon to 11 PM PDT Sunday for zone 382. (See LAXNPWLOX). Red Flag Warning in effect from 10 AM to 10 PM PDT Saturday for zones 381-383. (See LAXRFWLOX). PZ, Gale Warning in effect until 9 PM PDT Sunday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect from noon Saturday to 5 AM PDT Sunday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Watch in effect from Saturday afternoon through late Saturday night for zone 655. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
