01/814 AM.
A cooling trend will begin today but it will still be warm through Monday, with some patches of dense fog Monday morning. Another warming trend will kick off on Tuesday, with near record high temperatures possible by Wednesday along with moderate Santa Ana winds. Another more pronounced cooling trend to follow after Thursday.
(tdy-Tue), 01/829 AM.
***UPDATE***
Clear skies are greeting us this morning along with some pockets of breezy Santa Ana winds, mainly in the Hwy 14/126 corridors from Santa Clarita to Ventura/Oxnard. However, pressure gradients are trending onshore and offshore winds are expected to end by this afternoon, followed by a light onshore breeze near the coast. While gradients are not expected to actually turn onshore tomorrow, there is enough of an onshore trend that there is a relatively high chance for some morning stratus and locally dense fog, especially in LA County.
Temperatures are already trending lower this morning and overall expecting a cooler day today than the last few days. Coastal areas will feel the most cooling today with an earlier sea breeze but even most valleys should cool at least a few degrees from Saturday. More widespread cooling expected Monday, but even then high temperatures will still be 5-10 degrees above normal.
***From Previous Discussion***
Our most recent offshore wind event is on its last gasps, and should weaken through the morning hours, before turning generally onshore by Monday (except for some early ramp up offshore winds on the Central Coast). The ridge of high pressure aloft will also be weakening through Monday. This all adds up to lowering temperatures, but it will remain well above normal. The ingredients are there for some areas of dense fog forming along the coast over the next 36 hours (near neutral pressure gradients after a multiple days of offshore flow), but confidence is always low on when and where any fog will form on the first day. Anywhere this fog forms, visibilities will likely be very low.
Offshore gradients build once again on Tuesday as high pressure builds overhead. Temperatures now look to rise a little sharper than it was looking yesterday as the ridge builds in faster. Highs in the 75 to 85 range looks common. The event peaks on Wednesday (see long term for more details). Any low clouds and fog that forms on Monday will be retreating on Tuesday, but could linger around the LA coast areas thanks to a localized eddy.
(Wed-Sat), 01/343 AM.
The gusty offshore flow and high pressure aloft will continue through Thursday or Friday, both peaking on Wednesday. On Wednesday, wind gusts of 30 to 50 mph will be common over the wind prone areas of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties. Wind Advisories look certain. Temperatures in the 80 to 90 degree range will be common, which is 15 to 20 degrees above normal and above several calendar day records.
The high starts breaking down later Thursday and continues that trend through Saturday. Temperatures will slowly lower and low clouds and fog will start to redevelop.
There is about a 50% chance of some rain in the February 8 through 14 window based on the latest ensemble solutions. Of the ones that favor some rain, about 5 to 10% show amounts over an inch. This is not a very strong signal, but something to watch over the coming days.
01/1912z.
At 1837Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer or inversion.
Moderate to high confidence in TAFs. There is a 40% chance of VFR conditions through the period at KPRB. For KLAX, KLGB, and KSMO there is a 20-30% chance of a few hours of LIFR/IFR conditions between 13Z-17Z Mon, and a 15% chance for KOXR and KCMA.
KLAX, Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 25% chance of 1-3SM VSBY and BKN003-BKN006 cigs from 13Z-17Z Mon. While light east wind may continue through 20Z Sun and redevelop again from 11Z-18Z Mon, the east wind component is NOT expected to exceed 6 kt.
KBUR, High confidence in TAF.
01/759 AM.
For all the Outer Waters and the Inner Waters north of Point Conception, high confidence in current forecast. From this afternoon through Monday night, a combination of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas is expected to develop. For Tuesday through Thursday, winds and seas are expected to drop below SCA levels, except for a 30-40% chance of SCA level northeast winds across the nearshore waters Tuesday through Wednesday and potentially into Thursday morning. Another round of SCA level winds and seas across the outer waters will be possible Friday into Saturday morning.
For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. From Ventura south to Santa Monica, there is a 40-50% chance of SCA level northeast winds Tuesday night through Wednesday and potentially into Thursday morning. Otherwise, winds and seas will remain below SCA levels through Thursday.
Ca, High Surf Advisory in effect until 9 AM PST Tuesday for zones 340-346-354. (See LAXCFWLOX). Beach Hazards Statement in effect from late tonight through Monday evening for zones 362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PST Monday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 2 AM PST Tuesday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
