15/1247 PM.
A moderate to strong Santa Ana Wind will bring widespread strong winds and critical fire weather conditions to much of Southwest California through Saturday. Additionally, very warm temperatures bring a high risk of heat illness to all coastal areas. A significant cool down is expected Sunday with a chance of widespread rain by Tuesday or Wednesday.
(tdy-Sun), 16/359 AM.
We are on track for the longest and strongest period of Santa Ana winds today, especially at lower elevations (coastal valleys to coast) with strongest cooridor of winds sliding a bit north into a more traditional Santa Ana setup.
High wind warnings and strong wind advisories look good for much of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties with peak winds likely in the 50 to 70 mph range through late morning or early afternoon before gradually weakening. Breezy east to northeast winds with gusts of 25 to 45 mph will also extend to most other areas that do not typically get much winds in this type of setup. Red Flag Warnings also continue to be in effect for a large portion of Southwest California. Please take care with fire ignition sources.
Moderate-to-high heat risk is equally concerning, especially near the coast with highs again in the 90s to near 100. Temperatures will shoot up quickly this morning and stay quite warm well into the evening, especially where breezy winds continue, increasing the duration of the heat, which is particularly concerning for those without air conditioning or that spend significant time outdoors. A Heat Advisory continues near the coast through Saturday.
On Saturday, upper level support and surface gradients weaken but still expecting a windy day, albeit probably 15-30 mph weaker than Friday. And with the offshore flow and cold advection weakening as well temperatures at the coast should cool at least a few degrees while valleys and other interior areas either remain the same or warm slightly.
A digging trough from the northwest and the return of onshore flow will bring significant cooling and moistening trends along with breezy northwest to onshore winds to the region. Daytime highs by Monday will mostly be in the 70s with a sprinkling of low 80s for warmer valleys. Signs of potentially inclement weather are likely by Monday night in the form of increasing mid to high clouds.
(Mon-Thu), 16/359 AM.
There is increasing confidence in rain chances next week, though low confidence on the details. Virtually all the solutions indicate at least some light rain, most likely starting Wednesday, but could start as early as Tuesday afternoon or as late as Wednesday evening. Rain amounts are even more scattered but mostly around a half inch area-wide. We may not have a good handle on this system until early next week as our guidance struggles with storms coming from the northwest, especially closed, cut-off low pressure systems. There are more than a few solutions that bring an inch or more so there a small potential for heavy rain/flood concerns.
16/0822z.
At 06Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer or inversion.
High confidence in CAVU conditions for all sites through the period. Moderate confidence in direction/strength of northeast- east winds, gusts may be off by 020-030 degrees and 10-15 knots respectively.
KLAX, High confidence in 06Z in CAVU conditions through the period. Moderate confidence in winds, and there is the potential for an extended period of gusty easterly winds from about 17Z to 22Z, with gusts up to 25 kt.
KBUR, High confidence in CAVU conditions through the TAF period. Moderate confidence in winds as timing may be off by 2-3 hours and strength could be +/- 10 knots.
16/122 AM.
For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Through Sunday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels across PZZ670/673. For PZZ676, there is a 60-80% chance of SCA level winds today. On Monday and Tuesday, there is a 50-60% chance of SCA level winds across all of the Outer Waters with seas hovering around SCA levels.
For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. There is a 40-50% chance of SCA level northeast winds this morning. For Saturday and Sunday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. On Monday and Tuesday, there is a 50% chance of SCA level winds, mainly in the afternoon and evening hours with seas hovering near SCA levels.
For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. There is a 60-70% chance of GALE force winds from Ventura to Santa Monica with a 40-60% chance of SCA level winds elsewhere (especially across the San Pedro Channel). For tonight and Saturday, there is a 50% chance of SCA level northeast winds from Point Mugu to Santa Monica with high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels elsewhere. For Sunday through Tuesday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels for most areas except for the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel where there is a 50-60% chance of SCA level winds.
Ca, Wind Advisory in effect until 8 PM PDT this evening for zones 88-354-355-358-362-370>374-376-377. (See LAXNPWLOX). Heat Advisory in effect until 8 PM PDT Saturday for zones 340-341-346-347-349-350-354-355-362-366>368. (See LAXNPWLOX). High Wind Warning in effect until 8 PM PDT this evening for zones 369-375-378>380. (See LAXNPWLOX). Red Flag Warning in effect until 8 PM PDT Saturday for zones 288-354>358-362-369>382-548. (See LAXRFWLOX). Red Flag Warning in effect until 6 PM PDT this evening for zones 342-345-353. (See LAXRFWLOX). PZ, Gale Warning in effect until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
