09/310 AM.
Moderate heat impacts will continue through Friday away from the coast in response to a strong ridge of high pressure over the region. Temperatures will decrease slightly over the weekend as the ridge moves away from the region, but some heat impacts will continue. Monsoonal showers and thunderstorms will be possible starting Sunday. Temperatures will begin to build once again on Tuesday, potentially reaching Major Heat Risk levels, with the monsoonal moisture adding to the discomfort from the heat.
(tdy-Sat), 09/1025 AM.
***UPDATE***
Clouds will clear from the beaches today by the afternoon and other areas are currently under full sunshine. Temperatures are on track to be the warmest of the next couple days, with highs around 5 to 10 above normal (78-88 near the beaches, 90-100 for most valleys, and 100-110 for the warmest valleys and the deserts.
***From Previous Discussion***
An upper level 595 dam high is situated just to the SW of LA. It will remain stationary for through Friday morning and then begin to slowly drift to the ENE. Hgts over Srn CA during the 3 day period will be between 594 and 595 dam, which is 3 to 4 dam higher than normal for this time of year. This morning there will be about 2mb of onshore flow to the east and about 2mb of offshore flow from the north. Onshore trends over the next three days will result in mdt to stg onshore flow both to the east and north by Saturday.
There will only be minimal low clouds this morning concentrated across the Central Coast, the Paso Robles area and the KLGB-KLAX cstl area. The increase in onshore flow will bring more low clouds to the csts Friday morning. The stronger onshore flow will bring plenty of low clouds to the csts on Saturday morning and locally into the lower vlys. Skies Saturday will be partly cloudy after the low clouds dissipate as mid and high level clouds rotate into the area around the upper high.
High temperatures continue to be the main concern through the forecast period. Today will be the warmest day with the above normal hgts and the weakest onshore flow. Most max temps will be about a degree warmer than ydy's very warm readings. The exception today will be the Central Coast which due to the weaker onshore flow will see 4 to 8 degrees of warming. Vly temps today will range from 88 to 102 degrees or 4 to 8 degrees above normal. The increasing marine layer and onshore flow will bring some cooling to the csts and vlys each day Fri and Sat while the mtns and interior will see little change. Heat advisories continue over many areas (humidities will be on rise and this increase will mitigate the cooler temps) please see the product LAXNPWLOX for details.
Advisory level Sundowner winds are once again likely this evening for Southwest Santa Barbara County. Elevated fire weather conditions will continue for this area as well.
(Sun-Wed), 09/310 AM.
The upper high will continue to drift to the NE and will end up over South Dakota by Monday where it will stay through most of next week. Srn CA will end up on the western periphery of the high and SE flow will set up and persist over the area. Hgts will not change much day to day and will be near 593 dam. At the sfc there will be gradual weakening of the onshore flow will the possibility of offshore flow developing from the north Tuesday or more likely Wednesday.
The SE flow will bring monsoon moisture into the area with partly to mostly cloudy skies due to mid and high level clouds likely Sunday and Monday. There will also be enough onshore flow to bring low clouds to the csts and lower vlys each morning. PWAT quickly increase overnight Saturday and persist into Monday. The moisture will be low enough to bring a 10-20 percent chc of showers and isold TSTMs to VTA and LA counties. The best chc each day will be in the afternoons and early evenings over the mtns esp the eastern LA mtns. The increase in humidities will keep the heat index high enough to continue the low end heat advisories for most areas away from the csts.
The monsoon will likely cut off on Tuesday and skies will be much clearer for Tue and Wed. The amount of marine layer clouds will shrink as the offshore trends take affect. The copious sunshine and weaker onshore flow will add up to two days of warming. The current forecast call for 3 to 6 degrees on Tue and 1 to 3 degrees on Wed. If, however, the offshore develops as some ensemble members indicate then max temps would end up much higher and an extreme heat watch is in effect to cover this possibility which stands at about 30 percent right now.
09/1719z.
At 1643Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1100 ft deep. The top of the inversion was at 66000 ft deep with a temperature of 25 C.
High confidence in TAFs for KSBA, KBUR, KVNY, KPMD and KWJF.
Fair confidence in TAFs for KSBP and KSMX with a 30 percent chc of VLIFR conds 10Z-15Z. VFR conds could occur +/- 1 hour from fcst.
Good confidence in TAFs for KOXR and KCMA with a 15 percent chc of IFR cigs 13Z-16Z for KOXR.
Moderate confidence in TAFs for KSMO, KLGB and KLAX. VFR transition could be off by +/- 90 minutes and cigs off by 300 ft.
KLAX, Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 40 percent chc of no cigs. Moderate confidence that MVFR/IFR conds will arrive between 0600Z and 0800Z. Good confidence that any east wind component will be AOB 6kt.
KBUR, High confidence in TAF.
09/314 AM.
For the outer waters, current Gale Warnings look on track ending Thursday morning. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level NW winds will follow, lasting through at least Friday morning. Large 10-12 ft seas will subside Friday, but current SCA may need to be extended into Friday night due to winds and seas.
SCA level NW-W winds, with local gusts near gale force are expected for the inner waters along the Central Coast until Thursday morning. There is a 40% chance of Gales across the nearshore waters along the Central Coast and the Santa Barbara Channel through Thursday morning. Local SCA level wind gusts are also possible for far western portions of the Santa Barbara Channel through Thursday morning.
For the inner waters south of Point Conception, conditions are expected to remain below SCA levels.
09/1019 AM.
A south to southwest swell will continue to affect the coastal waters through next week. With the swell, the potential for larger surf and greater risk for rip currents will continue. High tides are expected to increase this weekend going into next week with Monday expected to be the highest tide of 7.0 to 7.6 ft above MLLW. There is the potential for some minor coastal flooding next week with the high tides and south swell. One thing that will need to be watched into next week will be the potential of a greater south to southwest swell from potential tropical development.
Thunderstorms are also possible starting Sunday and going through next week with a 10-20% chance.
Ca, Heat Advisory remains in effect until 10 AM PDT Tuesday for zones 38-88-343>345-353-368-372-373-375>380-548. (See LAXNPWLOX). Extreme Heat Watch in effect from Tuesday morning through Thursday evening for zones 38-88-341>345-347>358-362-366>376-378>383-548. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect until 5 AM PDT Friday for zones 645-670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
