30/1253 AM.
Quiet weather with near seasonal temperatures will prevail the rest of the week. Breezy west to northwest winds will occur across portions of the area at times. Light rain showers are possible late Sunday into Monday.
(tdy-Sat), 30/1253 AM.
Overall, 00Z models in good synoptic agreement through the short term period. At upper levels, low will move inland across northern Baja today then a weak ridge will build over the area on Friday. On Saturday, the upper level ridge will be squashed as next upper low begins to move southward, offshore of northern California. Near the surface, moderate onshore flow will prevail to the east through Saturday, but there will be some northerly offshore flow through tonight.
Forecast-wise, no significant issues are expected through the short term period. Away from the coastal plain, skies should remain mostly clear through Saturday. However across the coastal plain, moderate onshore flow and eddy circulations (indicated by high resolution models) are expected to bring an increase in marine layer stratus/fog during the night/morning hours. However, the warm ocean waters could limit the development potential, so confidence in areal coverage will remain low each night.
As for winds, there will continue to be some northerly winds in the usual spots (I-5 Corridor and Santa Ynez Range) through tonight as decent northerly offshore gradients continue. Looking at HREF, there is about a 30-40% chance of advisory-level north winds across the western half of the Santa Ynez Range late this afternoon through tonight. Will not issue any advisories with the morning package, but future shifts will need to monitor this potential. Otherwise, moderate onshore flow to the east will generate the usual gusty southwesterly winds across interior sections each afternoon and evening.
As for temperatures, no significant issues are expected. Away from the coast, a slight warming trend can be expected through Friday with some cooling on Saturday. For the coastal plain, the warming trend will be "muted" by the increasing marine influence with temperatures only varying a couple degrees from day-to-day.
(Sun-Wed), 30/1253 AM.
For the extended, 00Z models continue to exhibit decent synoptic agreement. Main feature of note will be another cutoff low. Based on latest forecast, this low will drop south, off the Central Coast on Sunday, then will move inland Monday/Tuesday over the area, but will move to northern Baja on Wednesday.
As with any cutoff low in Spring, confidence in the forecast is only moderate at best. At this time, the low looks to be rather moisture-starved, so rainfall, if any, is not expected to be significant. Based on current guidance, POPs for Sunday night and Monday are going to be in the 10-20% range with the highest chances across northern San Luis Obispo county. Any rainfall that develop looks to be very light, under 0.10 inches, with the "best" chances of measurable rain over northern San Luis Obispo county. For Monday night/Tuesday, any threat of rain will shift to interior sections as low moves south and east, but even then, POPs are expected to be under 15%. Of course with any cutoff low, the forecast could change dramatically over the coming days.
Otherwise, no significant concerns are anticipated. Through Monday, skies will waver between partly cloudy and mostly cloudy due to the cutoff low as well as potentially more extensive marine layer stratus/fog. On Tuesday/Wednesday, mostly clear conditions are likely as low moves out of the area. As for temperatures, expect a noticeable cooling for all areas on Sunday with a degree or two of additional cooling on Monday. However for Tuesday and Wednesday, temperatures will rebound as the low moves out of the area.
30/1129z.
At 1100Z at KLAX, the marine inversion was 1300 feet deep. The top of the inversion was 2700 feet with a temperature of 15 degrees Celsius.
For the 12Z TAF package, high confidence in KPRB, KWJF and KPMD. For coastal sites, moderate confidence in TAFs as timing of flight category changes could be +/- 3 hours of current forecasts. For KBUR and KVNY, there is a 30% chance of MVFR/IFR CIGs/VSBYs 12Z-16Z.
KLAX, Moderate confidence in 12Z TAF. Timing of flight category changes could be +/- 3 hours of current forecasts. No significant easterly wind component is expected.
KBUR, Moderate confidence in 12Z TAF. There is a 30% chance of MVFR/IFR CIGs/VSBYs 12Z-16Z.
30/1254 AM.
For the Outer Waters, high confidence in current forecast. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds will continue through tonight. For Friday through Monday, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels.
For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, high confidence in current forecast. SCA level winds are expected this afternoon and evening. For Friday through Monday, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels.
For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. From late this afternoon through tonight, there is a 60-80% chance of SCA level winds across the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel. Otherwise, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels for the southern Inner Waters through Monday.
Ca, NONE. PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Friday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
