25/657 PM.
Very hot conditions will dominate the week, with a high risk of heat-related illness. Patchy night through morning low clouds and locally dense fog will be confined to some coastal areas. Significant cooling is likely over the weekend but it will remain warm.
(Tue-Fri), 25/847 PM.
High pressure aloft, with weak onshore pressure gradients, and some northerly flow influence will maintain our extreme heat event through Friday. Temperatures will vary a few degrees each day in a random fashion, but it will be hard to notice. Expecting several calendar day records to fall. Overnight conditions will be warm as well. Considering the magnitude of the daytime temperatures, the limited relief overnight, and the prolonged nature of this heat event, the Extreme Heat Warnings are locked in with little change expected.
Sundowner winds will affect southern Santa Barbara County each night through Thursday. These winds just recently strengthen more than expected, as the SBA-SMX pressure gradient increased a whole millibar in the last hour to -4.8. Added a Wind Advisory for tonight as a result. While the winds will return again on Thursday, not expecting a Wind Advisory-level event.
A shallow marine layer will maintain a potential for low clouds and dense fog in pockets of the area through the week. Coverage will be minimal through Thursday, as high pressure aloft peaks and onshore gradients remain weak. Some northeast winds in the hills above the Central Coast will bring a big difference on Wednesday compared to previous days, with minimal coverage expected. Very unsure what will happen over the Los Angeles and Ventura County Coasts through Thursday. On Friday however, a strong eddy will increase the chances for low clouds and fog.
Most model projections and ensembles have remnant moisture from Tropical Storm Iselle moving over California sometime from late Wednesday through early Friday. There are vast differences with exactly where in the state. On top of that, none of the projections that show rain show anything more than light showers. This adds up to a general 5 to 15 percent chance anywhere over the area.
(Sat-Tue), 25/208 PM.
Models are in good agreement with a 3-6 degree cooling trend Saturday as onshore flow returns despite little change in the position or strength of the upper high in AZ. However, the high does weaken quite a bit Sunday into next week which will continue the cooling trend through at least Monday. At that point high temperatures will be near to even slightly below normal area-wide.
26/0156z.
At 0017Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer. The top of the inversion was near 1800 feet with a temperature of 34 degrees Celsius.
For the 00Z TAF package, high confidence in KPRB, KSBA, KBUR, KVNY, KPMD and KWJF.
For KSMX and KSBP, there is 30% chance of no flight restrictions overnight. If LIFR/VLIFR conds do occur, the timing could be off by at least +/- 2 hours from TAF times. CIGs at KSBP could occur for only 2-3 hours.
For KOXR, KCMA, KSMO, KLAX and KLGB, there is a 20% chance of IFR/LIFR conditions 08Z-17Z. if CIGs occur, the timing could be off by +/- 2 hours from TAF times.
KLAX, Moderate to High confidence in the 00Z TAF. There is a 20% chance of IFR/LIFR conditions 08Z-17Z. No significant easterly wind component is expected.
KBUR, High confidence in the 00Z TAF as CAVU conditions are expected through the period.
25/829 PM.
For the Outer Waters, high confidence in current forecast. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds are expected across all of the Outer Waters through Sunday. Additionally, seas will hover near SCA levels through the week, including hazardous steep seas with building wave heights.
For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. SCA level winds are expected during most afternoon to evening periods through the weekend. Steep choppy seas are expected through the week.
For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. For a majority of the southern Inner Waters, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels through Sunday. The only exception will be the Western half of the Santa Barbara Channel where there is a 30-40% chance of SCA level winds during the afternoon and evening hours through Wednesday, then a 60-80% chance Thursday through Sunday during the same time frame. Choppy short period seas will persist through the weekend.
25/1232 PM.
Southerly swell from Tropical Storms Iselle and Julio will move into the coastal waters late tonight and continue through Thursday. Swell heights of 3-5 feet with a period around 14 seconds can be expected. producing elevated surf and dangerous rip currents along south-facing beaches of Ventura and LA counties. Therefore, a BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT is in effect from 500 AM Wednesday trough 11 PM Thursday.
Ca, Extreme Heat Warning in effect until 8 PM PDT Friday for zones 38-87-88-349>358-362-366>376-378>383-548. (See LAXNPWLOX). Beach Hazards Statement in effect from 5 AM PDT Wednesday through Thursday evening for zones 87-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). Heat Advisory in effect from 10 AM Wednesday to 8 PM PDT Thursday for zones 341-347-348. (See LAXNPWLOX). Heat Advisory in effect until 8 PM PDT Friday for zones 342>345. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect until 6 AM PDT Wednesday for zones 349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX). Red Flag Warning in effect until 3 PM PDT Friday for zones 345-353-375>380. (See LAXRFWLOX). PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Thursday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
