17/220 AM.
Near to slightly below normal temperatures are expected to continue today with low clouds and fog lingering into the afternoon across coast and some valleys south of Pt Conception. Gusty winds are expected at times across the mountains and deserts. Hazardous seas will affect the coastal waters over the next several days. Warmer temperatures are expected next week.
(tdy-Tue), 17/220 AM.
An inside slider will drop into and through the Great Basin today. It will bring a reinforcing shot of northwesterly upper level support to the area today. Look for NW wind gusts of 40-60 mph will continue across the mountains, deserts and southwestern Santa Barbara county through Sunday evening where HIGH WIND WARNINGS are in effect. An eddy spun up by the strong NW winds in the outer waters will bring marine layer stratus to most of the LA/VTA csts and vlys this morning. Max temps will be pretty similar to ydy maybe a little cooler as hgts fall with the upper low's movement.
As is usually the case with an inside slider's passage a Santa Ana Wind event will set up in its wake. While the actual offshore pressure on Monday will not be too strong the trend from 9mb onshore at 00Z Mon to -2mb at 12Z is so strong that is will likely generate a decent offshore wind field. There is some upper support as well and there is about a 40 percent chc that the wind speeds will reach advisory levels in the morning. The offshore push should eliminate the marine layer clouds everywhere save for the Long Beach area. The offshore push will bring 3 to 6 locally 8 degrees of warming to most areas.
Weaker offshore flow will bring some non advisory canyon winds to the area Tuesday morning. Low clouds, if any, will again be confined to the LGB area. Rising hgts, the lack of cool air from the interior and continued offshore flow will bring 1 to 3 degrees of warming to the csts, 3 to 5 degrees over the vlys and 4 to 8 degrees for the mtns and far interior. Max temps Tuesday will mostly be 4 to 8 degrees above normal with 70s and a few lower 80s across the csts and 80s in the vlys.
(Wed-Sat), 17/220 AM.
One last day of weak offshore and minimal marine layer clouds will make Wednesday the warmest day of the week. Look for 1 to 3 degrees of warming with some vly max temps approaching 90.
Look for a benign upper level pattern to return Thursday and continue through Saturday. At the same time onshore flow will increase some each day. This will reinvigorate the marine layer stratus and most csts and some vlys will wake up to clouds each morning. Winds will not be an issue. Max temps will fall 3 to 6 degrees across the csts/vlys on Thursday. All areas will see 3 to 4 degrees of cooling Friday. Saturday's cooling of 1 to 2 degrees will bring max temps down into the upper 60s through the upper 70s across the csts and vlys.
17/0938z.
At 0832Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 3800 ft deep. The top of the inversion was at 4900 ft with a temperature of 12 C.
Good confidence in TAFs for KPRB, KSBP, KPMD and KWJF.
Moderate confidence in TAF for KSBA with a 30 percent chc of MVFR cigs 10Z-18Z.
Moderate confidence in TAFs for KOXR and KCMA with a 30 percent chc of no low clouds.
Moderate confidence in the remainder of the TAFs. VFR conds could arrive +/- 90 minutes from forecast time.
KLAX, Moderate confidence in TAF. VFR conds could arrive anytime between 17Z and 19Z. There is a 30 percent chc of an 8kt east wind component 12Z-16Z.
KBUR, Moderate confidence in TAF. VFR conds could arrive anytime between 1630Z and 1830Z.
17/219 AM.
Dangerous sea conditions will continue through early this evening. These conditions could capsize or damage small and large vessels. Mariners should adjust plans NOW to remain in safe harbor.
GALE WARNINGS are in effect for the inner waters along the Central Coast, all the outer waters, and the Santa Barbara Channel this weekend. Please refer to MWWLOX for further details.
For the outer waters from the Central Coast to San Nicolas Island, high confidence forecast. Widespread, high-end, STRONG GALES will continue through Sunday. Local gusts may reach STORM FORCE through mid morning. The Gale Force winds will diminish today, then Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds will continue into late Monday night, with a 20% chance of lingering through Tuesday. As for seas, SCA level seas are nearing their peak (10-20 feet) tonight. Seas should decrease significantly this evening as winds diminish and will continue to fall Monday and Monday night.
For the inner waters along the Central Coast, high-end, STRONG GALE FORCE level winds are expected through this evening, with a lull in gale force winds in the morning. Winds will then drop below Gale force and even SCA levels overnight. As for seas, SCA level seas will continue through the weekend and could linger into Monday afternoon or early evening.
For the inner waters south of Point Conception, GALE WARNING remains in effect for the Santa Barbara Channel through this evening with a slight lull in the winds this morning. These winds will be strongest across western and southern portions of the channel in and around the Channel Islands. Expect steep, large seas around 5 to 8 feet.
For the southern inner waters adjacent to the L.A. Coast, SCA conditions are expected through mid morning. Highest seas and strongest winds expected across western portion. Localized GALE Force wind gusts are possible Sunday evening/night near Anacapa Island.
16/1052 PM.
A combination of strong winds, large seas, and moderately high evening high tides may lead to high surf with minor coastal flooding possible this weekend. High Surf advisories and Beach Hazard statements have been issued across the entire coastline. Please refer to CFWLOX for more details for your area.
In general, hazardous surfing and swimming conditions are expected with strong rip currents. Minor beach erosion and minor coastal flooding is possible, mainly during the evening high tides.
Ca, High Surf Advisory in effect until 9 AM PDT Monday for zones 340-346-354. (See LAXCFWLOX). High Wind Warning remains in effect until 9 AM PDT this morning for zones 349-351>353-376>378. (See LAXNPWLOX). Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Monday morning for zones 349-350-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). High Wind Warning remains in effect until 11 PM PDT this evening for zones 381-383. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory remains in effect from noon today to 11 PM PDT this evening for zone 382. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ, Gale Warning in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening for zones 645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for zone 655. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
