21/730 PM.
Below normal temperatures are expected through the end of the work week. Unsettled conditions with scattered off and again showers will prevail through Friday. Warmer and drier conditions will resume early next week.
(Wed-Sat), 21/735 PM.
***UPDATE***
A few showers are lining up over and off of the Central Coast this evening. While the radar returns are healthy, the dry low levels lingering around from our recent warm spell has evaporated most if not all of the rain. This is usually a recipe for gusty winds, but thankfully not much has been reported or measured, but the potential for a gust or two in the 30 mph range remains in play through Thursday morning before those lower levels moisten up. All indications area for this activity to shift to the south over the next 24 hours, focusing over Ventura and Los Angeles County by Thursday afternoon. Adjusted rain chances up a bit for tomorrow, but they are still under 50% as measurable rain will be hit or miss. The rest of the messaging for light rain totals and rates, small chances for isolated thunderstorms and/or heavier showers all look good still.
***From Previous Discussion***
A weak low pressure system is currently spinning off over the coastal waters along the Central Coast, and is shuttling cooler temperatures and clouds into the SoCal region. Unsettled weather with scatted showers and highs in the 60s are expected through Friday. Winds have returned to onshore for the majority of the area, marking a significant change in the overall weather pattern compared to the previous many days of dry sunny days driven by offshore flow.
There is a 30-50 percent chance of rain at some point between tonight (Wednesday night) and Friday. This evening, scattered showers will be focused over the Central Coast and Santa Barbara County, followed by Ventura and LA Counties on Thursday and Friday. Rainfall intensity will be light to moderate, although there is a less than 10 percent chance of a heavier shower or thunderstorm with brief peak rainfall rates of 0.25 to 0.5 inches per hour. Heavier showers or thunderstorms will be most likely on Thursday across eastern Santa Barbara County, Ventura and Los Angeles Counties. Rainfall totals will be highly variable, but mostly under 0.25 inches, with the highest totals likely occur across south- facing slopes of Santa Barbara, Ventura, and Los Angeles Counties. Even so, high end rain fall totals top out at around 0.5 inch for favored areas such as the San Gabriel Mountains. Snow levels will generally be above 6500 feet with light snow accumulations possible at ski resort levels.
By Saturday, the center of the Storm system will be far to the south of SoCal, making way for more sunshine and warmer temperatures. However, strong winds aloft and surface pressure gradients will yield gusty northerly winds Saturday into Sunday, particularly across the mountains and the Interstate-5 Corridor.
(Sun-Wed), 21/237 PM.
The low pressure system will clear out of the region over the weekend, and a weak ridge of high pressure will set up early next week. This will allow for a gradual warming and drying trend, with chances for weak to moderate Santa Ana Winds at times. Highs early next week will rise to a couple degrees above normal, with high 60s to low 70s common. This warmer spell however will be much cooler than last week, when highs in the 80s were widespread.
A dry weather pattern is favored through the end of the month. The next signal for rain chances starts in early February.
22/0603z.
At 0449Z at KLAX, the marine layer was around 1200 ft deep. The top of the inversion was at 1700 ft with a temperature of 17 C.
Low to moderate confidence in all TAFs. -SHRA possible across all airfields any time through the period, but highest confidence from 15Z-03Z. Moderate chance for RA at times with any heavier showers. Lower confidence in minimum flight cat, but IFR to MVFR most likely in any rain. No significant wind issues expected.
Low but nonzero chance for a TSTM to develop, better chances (5-10%) focused KSBA and south to southeast from 12Z through 06Z. Any TSTM is capable of producing brief heavy downpours, small hail, lightning, and gusty erratic winds.
KLAX, Low to moderate confidence in TAF. -SHRA possible any time through the period, but highest confidence in timing reflected in TAF. RA possible with any heavier showers. Lower confidence in min flight cats, but BKN/OVC 010-025 and vsbys 3-5SM most likely minimums. Low chance for BKN/OVC 005-009. moderate confidence that any east wind component remains under 8 kts, but best chances for exceeding this is from 13Z-19Z (30%).
KBUR, Low to moderate confidence in TAF. -SHRA possible any time through the period, but highest confidence in timing reflected in TAF. RA possible with any heavier showers. Lower confidence in min flight cats, but BKN/OVC 008-025 and vsbys 3-5SM most likely minimums. Low chance for LIFR conds. No significant wind issues anticipated.
21/1008 PM.
Winds and seas are expected to remain relatively calm through Thursday, then there is a 20 percent chance for locally gusty Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds across the Outer Waters and into the western Santa Barbara Channel Friday into Saturday morning. Another round of light Santa Ana winds is forecast to return Saturday night into Sunday, but chances are low for any impactful nearshore winds at this time.
Rain showers are possible tonight through Thursday night. This activity could linger into early Friday morning across the waters adjacent to Los Angeles and Orange Counties.
There is a very low chance (5% chance) for a thunderstorm or two to develop Thursday morning to Thursday afternoon focused on the waters south of Point Conception.
Ca, NONE. PZ, NONE.
