07/824 PM.
A warming trend will continue through Sunday, then a weak storm system will move into the region and bring cooler temperatures and a chance of precipitation between Tuesday and Wednesday night. A warming trend is possible for late next week, then a cool, wet, and unsettled weather pattern looks to resume for next weekend into the third week of the month.
(Sat-Tue), 07/821 PM.
Satellite imagery showing mostly clear skies tonight across the region as pressure gradients continue to trend offshore to the north and east. As of 8 pm, the LAX-Daggett gradient is -2.8 mb and LAX-Bakersfield gradient is -4.3 mb. As of 8 pm, observations showing and uptick in north-northeast winds across the typical north-sound wind prone areas where wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph are common. There are a few areas where gusts are as high as 35 to 45 mph, such as the eastern Santa Ynez range and adjacent foothills extending from Montecito Hills to Santa Barbara Botanical Gardens. High resolution model data showing winds in the eastern Santa Ynez range peaking right now, and expected to diminish some in the next few hours, so will hold off on a wind advisory for now, but will closely monitor.
Breezy offshore winds will continue through Monday with widespread highs into the 70s with pockets of low or mid 80s in the warmest coastal valleys. There is a 20-30 percent chance that offshore winds will reach advisory levels for the Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo mountains Sunday night into Monday.
***From previous discussion ***
Monday will likely be a transition day with an onshore push ahead of a weak system with increasing cloud cover and modest cooling trends focused towards the coast.
Additional cloud cover associated with a storm pushing into the region may support showers as early as Tuesday morning, but are more likely by the afternoon or evening, particularly south of Point Conception. Shower activity will likely continue into at least Wednesday.
(Wed-Sat), 07/250 PM.
Moist west to southwest flow with a series of storms looks to continue, potentially well into the following week, supporting the potential for a prolonged stretch of active weather. Below normal confidence on the timing and strength of this activity, although any shower activity will mostly be on the weak to moderate side through at least Friday. The initial storm continues to track towards the weaker side with most areas expecting between a tenth and a half of an inch of rain. Snow levels will likely initially be above 7000 feet, but may fall to around 6000 feet with light accumulations possible above those levels. Increased cloud cover and weak troughiness will support near to slightly below temperatures through this period. Gusty southwest to northwest winds are likely at times, but mainly below advisory levels outside of wind prone areas.
There is a 70-80 percent chance of above normal precipitation February 13-17 (next Friday through the following Tuesday). Or in other words active weather is likely to continue at times through at least the 6-10 day period. There is the potential for at least a moderate cold storm with much lower snow levels around Sunday or Monday within this window.
08/0616z.
At 2350Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer. There was a sfc based inversion with a top of 1000 ft and a temp of 22 C.
High confidence in TAFs, except KPRB (40 percent chc of no cigs) and KLGB (30 percent chc of LIFR conds 12Z-16Z)
KLAX, High confidence in TAF. Any east wind component will be under 7 kt.
KBUR, High confidence in CAVU TAF.
07/903 PM.
A long period west swell continues to impact the region with seas of 7 to 11 feet across the outer waters and the nearshore waters along the Central Coast. Seas will trend downward going forward likely falling below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level sometime late tonight, however NW winds are increasing thus current SCAs will continue through at least late Sunday, and may be extended through Monday night or longer. Local low end Gale Force winds may occur in the afternoon Sunday evening from Point Conception south to San Nicolas Island and west through the Outer Waters.
Gusty northeast winds affecting portions of the southern Santa Barbara County coast to Ventura and from Port Hueneme to Santa Monica may lead to localized gusts of 25 kts at times tonight and into early Sunday morning for the near shore waters. There is a 50-70% chance for NW SCA winds Sunday evening for the Santa Barbara Channel, with gusts nearing 20 kt for the inner waters south of Point Mugu.
07/906 PM.
A long period west swell will continue to bring high surf and strong rip currents to Southwest California, focused across west facing beaches through late tonight. Elevated surf will likely continue into this coming week, with potential for more high surf by Friday.
Refer to the SRFLOX and CFWLOX products for more details on the current High Surf Advisories.
Ca, High Surf Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Sunday for zones 354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Monday for zones 645-670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
