01/210 PM.
Hot conditions are expected well into next week, generally hottest through Sunday, especially closer to the coast. There is a high risk of heat-related illness during this time. Dense fog will affect some coastal areas.
(tdy-Tue), 01/121 PM.
Another hot day today, with a mixed bag of 24 hour temperature changes. Some areas are running cooler than yesterday, including the Central Coast where temperatures no longer look extreme enough to warrant the previous Heat Advisory. Some areas running warmer than yesterday include the interior valleys and deserts, as well as the Los Angeles and Ventura County valleys, where the low-end but still concerning Extreme Heat Warnings remain in play. Overnight low temperatures will also remain elevated, which will add to the heat stress. The upper level ridge aloft will weaken after the weekend, but only by a little, which points to only small changes over the interior areas. Onshore pressure gradients are expected to strengthen some after Sunday, which points towards more noticeable lowering of temperatures, but it will remain warmer than normal for our warmest time of the year.
The current Heat Advisories and Warnings remain in effect through Sunday. No additional changes are planned for today. For the coastal and valley areas, the potential for extensions of the current Advisories and Warnings beyond Sunday is 20% or less. With that said, the areas currently in a warning have a 40% chance of moving into an advisory for Monday through Wednesday. For the interior mountains and deserts currently under a warning, the chances for extensions are higher and closer to 60% as the temperature drop off now looks minimal.
The key message continues: The risk for heat-related illness remains high, especially for sensitive populations.
With high pressure remaining aloft, the marine layer will remain shallow. This will keep beaches pretty moderated temperature-wise, but will also bring risks of dense fog with low visibilities along the coast.
(Wed-Sat), 01/127 PM.
High pressure starts to build again over the southwest Wednesday through the end of the week, just not as strongly as this weekend. High temperatures will remain higher than normal with elevated and extended concerns of heat illnesses persisting. Can see a smattering of Heat Advisories and Warnings for the middle to end of the week, especially for interior areas, but that is not a certainty as we get deeper and deeper into typically hot season. The position of the high for most ensemble projections also turns the flow aloft back to southeasterly, which means there will be a several day window for monsoonal moisture to start pushing back up. There is a range in the projections as to how much moisture, which is unsurprising this far out. With that said, all signs are pointing towards a warmer and muggier close to the week.
01/2352z.
At 2317Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer. The top of the inversion was near 3500 feet with a temp of 30 degrees Celsius.
High confidence in VFR conds for KPRB, KBUR, KVNY, KPMD and KWJF.
Low confidence in TAFs for KSBP, KSMX and KSBA. Expecting conds similar to last night with a 20% chance of VLIFR conds with FG for the Central Coast sites. The timing of flight category changes may differ by +/- 2 hours from TAF times.
Low to moderate confidence in KOXR, KCMA and the LA Coastal sites. IFR conds are expected with a 30% chance of MVFR conds for the LA coastal sites. Flight categories could differ from TAF times by at least +/- 2 hours, and CIGs could form and dissipate at times between around 06Z to 15Z.
KLAX, Low to moderate confidence in the 00Z TAF. The timing of flight cat changes may be off +/- 2 hours from TAF, and there is a 20% chance of no CIG restrictions, and a 20-30% chance of MVFR conds. No significant east wind component expected.
KBUR, High confidence in the 00Z TAF with VFR conds expected.
01/208 PM.
For the Outer Waters, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds and seas will continue through Sunday night before beginning to subside early this coming week. Winds will generally peak at around 30 knots, strongest during the evening hours.
For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, there is an 80% chance of SCA winds this afternoon and tonight, with decreasing to a 30% chance Sunday and Sunday night. Otherwise, winds and seas will continue to subside through the period.
For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, there is a 40% chance of SCA winds during the afternoon and evening hours through this weekend over the western portion of the Santa Barbara Channel. Otherwise conditions are expected to remain below SCA levels.
Seas of 7-10 feet will impact the outer waters through this weekend, due to a combination of long-period southerly swell from a distant tropical cyclone and shorter- period northwesterly swell/wind- waves caused by the prevalent NW winds. As a result, steep, hazardous seas will be common, especially over the outer waters, extending to nearshore waters off the Central Coast. Seas will begin to subside as the winds weaken late Sunday night into early next week.
Dense fog will affect some of the coastal waters each night and morning going forward.
01/204 PM.
Diminishing southerly swells from a distant tropical cyclone will bring elevated surf and moderate to strong rip currents along area beaches this weekend. A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect through 8 PM this evening for all beaches except the Santa Barbara South Coast. The surf will diminish further on Sunday, but moderate to locally strong rip currents will still be common on exposed south to southwest facing beaches.
Continue to use extra caution if you are at the beach, and be sure to ask lifeguards if and where it is safe to swim.
Please reference the Coastal Hazard Message (CFWLOX) for details on High Surf and Beach Hazards Statements. Dangerous rip currents will be of particular concern this weekend.
Ca, Extreme Heat Warning in effect until 8 PM PDT Sunday for zones 38-88-343>345-351>353-356>358-368>376-378-379-381>383-548. (See LAXNPWLOX). Beach Hazards Statement in effect until 8 PM PDT this evening for zones 87-340-346-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). Heat Advisory in effect until 8 PM PDT Sunday for zones 342-348>350-354-355-362-366-367-377-380. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Sunday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
