17/936 AM.
Warmer temperatures are expected this coming week with some locally breezy Santa Ana winds on Monday. The warmest day will be Wednesday with slow cooling the rest of the week along with a return of night and morning low clouds and fog.
(tdy-Tue), 17/1009 AM.
West to northwest winds are starting to decrease as gradients trend offshore through Monday morning. Still expecting some gusty northwest winds in the Antelope Valley through this evening as well as southwest Santa Barbara County.
Otherwise, the offshore push will peak Monday morning with gradients around -2.5mb to the east. This probably won't be enough to completely remove the marine layer influence out of LA/Ventura Counties so probably little to no Santa Ana winds at lower elevations. But in the LA Mountains above 3000 feet some gusts to around 40 mph are possible Monday morning. High temperatures most everywhere Monday will see a bump from 5-10 degrees.
A similar light offshore pattern continues Tuesday and Wednesday but with slowly decreasing wind support aloft, which was already not that strong to begin with. 90% of the warming for the week will be on Monday, except in the Antelope Valley where the main warming will delayed to Tuesday, with temperatures up 5-10 degrees. Elsewhere, highs Tue and Wed will only increase by a degree or two. Any morning stratus will be patchy and brief.
(Wed-Sat), 17/1006 AM.
Look for a benign upper level pattern to return Thursday and continue through Saturday. At the same time onshore flow will increase some each day. This will reinvigorate the marine layer stratus and most csts and some vlys will wake up to clouds each morning. Winds will not be an issue. Max temps will fall 3 to 6 degrees across the csts/vlys on Thursday. All areas will see 3 to 4 degrees of cooling Friday. Saturday's cooling of 1 to 2 degrees will bring max temps down into the upper 60s through the upper 70s across the csts and vlys.
17/1817z.
At 1718Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 4000 ft deep. The top of the inversion was at 5700 ft with a temperature of 11 C.
Good confidence in TAFs for KPRB, KSBP, KPMD and KWJF.
Low confidence for KSMX, there is a 50% chance for no low clouds tonight, and if clouds arrive, 30% chance for IFR conds.
Low confidence in TAFs for KOXR and KCMA due to uncertainty in timing and magnitude of northeast winds. Winds may gust up to 25 kt by 16Z at KCMA and KOXR, and there's a 30% chance for northeast winds remaining below 5 kt at KOXR.
Moderate confidence in the remainder of the TAFs. VFR conds could arrive +/- 2 hr from forecast time.
KLAX, Moderate confidence in TAF. MVFR conds could arrive anytime between 04Z and 08Z. Moderate to high confidence in east wind component 8-10 kt between 06Z-14Z.
KBUR, Moderate confidence in TAF. MVFR conds could arrive anytime between 04Z and 08Z.
17/805 AM.
Dangerous sea conditions will continue through tonight across the coastal waters, lingering into Monday morning. These conditions could capsize or damage small and large vessels. Mariners should remain in safe harbor.
Winds are expected to decrease below GALE levels tonight, especially for the Outer Waters south of Point Sal. Lingering Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level conditions (including steep seas) are likely (80-100% chance) to follow the GALES into at least Monday morning across the Outer Waters, potentially into the afternoon (50% chance).
For the Santa Barbara Channel, the GALE WARNING was pushed back to begin this afternoon, but steep seas still warrant a SCA issuance for this morning. Winds are expected to drop off rapidly tonight, but seas may still be steep enough to warrant a SCA for a few hours after.
Steep, choppy seas will linger into the early afternoon adjacent to the Los Angeles and Orange County coasts, but winds are expected to remain below SCA levels.
Much improved conditions are then expected for the rest of the week, with marginal SCA level winds possible each afternoon/evening across the Outer Waters and Santa Barbara Channel.
Ca, High Surf Advisory in effect until 9 AM PDT Monday for zones 340-346-354. (See LAXCFWLOX). Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Monday morning for zones 349-350-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ, Gale Warning in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening for zones 645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 2 PM PDT this afternoon for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until noon PDT today for zone 655. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect until 9 AM PDT Monday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
