18/128 PM.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will taper off this evening. Light snow accumulations are possible above 6000 feet. Generally dry weather is expected Wednesday with cool temperatures. Another storm will bring rain to the area Thursday into Friday morning. Dry and warmer weather is expected over the weekend into next week.
(Tue-Fri), 18/158 PM.
Pockets of showers continue this afternoon as the upper low moves overhead. Most of the showers have been on the lighter side but a nearly stationary storm near Seacliff in western Ventura County has dropped some very heavy rain likely impacting the 101 freeway in that area. Otherwise, showers have been on the lighter side and very scattered, though with still some afternoon heating left there could be some additional heavier storms developing before sunset.
Expecting a dry day Wednesday in most areas with maybe a 5-10% chance of a stray shower in the LA mountains. Temperatures will remain well below normal with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s across the coast and valleys.
Another storm will move into the area Thursday. The trajectory for this one is a little more inland but most of the models have it cutting off near San Nicolas Island Friday morning which could maintain shower chances at least through midday Friday before it moves south of the MX border. Given the trajectory, it's not surprising that models are indicating higher amounts again south of Pt Conception, generally in the half to one inch range, though there are at least 25% of the solutions in the 1-2 inch range at lower elevations.
(Sat-Tue), 18/201 PM.
The vast majority of our projections show a big change in the weather starting this weekend, with drier and warmer conditions through the Thanksgiving holiday week.
19/0143z.
At 0022Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer and no inversion.
Moderate to high confidence in TAFs for all sites, with periods of MVFR conds as scattered clouds will move throughout the region. Chances for SHRA are ending quickly, but there is a small (10%) chance for a shower for KWJF, KPMD, KBUR, and KVNY. There is a 20% chance for VLIFR conds at KPRB, KBUR, and/or KVNY 10Z-17Z.
KLAX, High confidence in TAF. Periods of 015-030 cigs possible at any point. There is a 30% chance for easterly winds from 06Z to 09Z, but east wind component should remain below 6 kt.
KBUR, High confidence in TAF. 10% chance of -SHRA through 06Z. Periods of 015-030 cigs possible at any point.
18/141 PM.
Seas across the Outer Waters may linger near 10 feet through late this afternoon. Then high confidence in conditions remaining relatively calm through Thursday morning. Another storm system will bring elevated seas up to 14 feet across the outer waters and up to 6 feet for the inner water south of Point Conception as early as Thursday afternoon. Seas will improve some but remain at or near Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels through much of the weekend across the Outer Waters. Winds will be quite variable directionally as the storm moves to the south through the region, but periods of 20-30 knot winds will be common as early as Thursday afternoon into the weekend.
Nearshore northeast winds of 15-25 knots may surface between Ventura Harbor to Malibu early Friday through Saturday afternoon.
There is a 10-20 percent chance of thunderstorms across the coastal waters through this evening, highest chances south of Point Conception. Any thunderstorms that develop will be capable of producing brief heavy rain, small hail, dangerous cloud to surface lightning, gusty and erratic winds, locally rough seas, and possible waterspouts.
18/120 PM.
A 12-15 second 12-14 foot west-northwest swell will enter the region Thursday evening, increasing surf heights to 12-16 feet across northwest and west facing beach along the Central Coast into the weekend, peaking Friday. Surf will approach the 6-8 foot range in Ventura Friday.
High Surf Advisories are likely (80% chance) for the Central coast, and there is a chance for Ventura (40%), and Los Angeles (20%) counties.
Ca, Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect until 10 PM PST this evening for zones 377-380. (See LAXWSWLOX). PZ, NONE.
