22/659 PM.
Dry conditions are expected through the end of next week with temperatures rising to near to slightly above normal.
(Sat-Tue), 22/735 PM.
***UPDATE***
Santa Ana winds continue to diminish this evening, but with localized gusts 35 to 40 mph in the mountains and more widespread gusts of 20 to 30 mph in the favored foothills and passes. North wind gusts of around 25 mph are affecting SW Santa Barbara County. The offshore winds will weaken further overnight into early Sunday. The lowering winds and clearing skies will result in cooler overnight lows, with mid 40s to mid 50s for the coast and valleys, and 30s further inland over the mountains and far interior. Temperatures on Sunday will be a few degrees cooler for the coast and coastal valleys (as downslope warming shuts off) and 5-10 degrees warmer for the interior.
***From Previous Discussion***
Otherwise, a very quiet weather pattern now through Thanksgiving week as a high pressure ridge builds into the region. Temperatures will be trending in different directions depending on proximity to the coast. Coastal areas, or areas within 15 or so miles from the coast, will be trending cooler through Monday as onshore flow returns. And by Monday (if not as early as Sunday) some coastal areas will see a return to low clouds and fog. For the valleys and other interior areas temperatures will be similar or slightly warmer.
Starting Tuesday following the passage of a weak upper level trough into the northern portion of the Great Basin, pressure gradients will shift back offshore. There is little to no support aloft for any gusty winds but the diminished onshore push will along with higher than normal heights will result in a warming trend.
(Wed-Sat), 22/202 PM.
Temperatures will continue to trend upward through Thanksgiving day as light to moderate offshore flow continues. At this time the chances for strong Santa Ana winds are very low as there is little upper support. And in fact the current ensembles are indicating below advisory level winds at most next week. So like so many Thanksgivings in southern California, the most likely outcome is a mild to warm day across the area with clear skies, unlimited visibilities, and lots of turkey.
Going into next weekend models continue trend farther inland with the next upper level trough. What at one point looked like another strong storm for California has turned much drier as the models have shifted the storm's trajectory farther east. There are still a few ensemble solutions hanging onto rain chances but each run seems to trend drier.
23/0533z.
At 0454Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer. There was a weak surfaced based inversion with a top at 500 ft with a temperature of 20 C.
Overall, high confidence in the 06Z TAF package. There is a 30-40% chc of no LIFR conditions overnight at KPRB. Slight chance for LIFR conditions at KSMX after 02Z Monday.
KLAX, High confidence in the 06Z TAF. There is a 15% chance of east wind component reaching 7-8 kts from 12Z to 17Z Sunday. IFR CIGs around 008 possible (60% chc) after 06Z Monday, with arrival times (+/- 3 hours) from current forecast if occurs.
KBUR, High confidence in the 06Z TAF. 15-20kt winds may SFC through 09Z Sunday. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected.
22/809 PM.
Across the Outer Waters, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) seas with wind gusts approaching SCA levels at times (especially S of pt. Conception) is expected through the weekend. SCA conditions may linger through mid-week for waters 30NM from shore. Moderate chances for a combination of SCA winds and seas to return next weekend.
Across the inner waters south of Point Conception, conditions should remain below advisory levels through the week. However, there is a 20% chance of local advisory level NE winds nearshore from Ventura to Point Dume on Wednesday.
Ca, High Surf Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Monday for zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX). High Surf Advisory in effect until 9 AM PST Sunday for zone 354. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Sunday for zones 645-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Monday for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
