26/812 PM.
Hotter than normal conditions will continue for the foreseeable future. Slight cooling is possible Monday through Thursday, with heat increasing again Friday through Sunday. The hot and humid conditions during the day and night will bring elevated risks of heat-related illness.
(Sun-Wed), 26/811 PM.
***UPDATE***
High temperatures today were in the 90s to low 100s away from the coasts, and 70s to low 80s at the immediate coasts. With the addition of mid- to high-level moisture and influx of clouds over the areas south of Point Conception, and the northerly surface pressure gradient actually increasing onshore rather than the opposite, temperatures were a few degrees cooler than forecast. Additionally, while not impactful, but still cool to see, the influx of clouds brought some virga to the region (rain evaporating before reaching the ground).
As for winds, Southwest Santa Barbara County is forecast to have Sundowner winds with gusts up to 35-50 mph once again, and a wind advisory in effect for tonight.
Looking into tomorrow, marine layer clouds are forecast to make it into Santa Maria, as well as into the L.A. County Coast and part of the Ventura Coast. Onshore flow will increase again tomorrow, and 500 mb heights may slightly lower. It should be a mostly sunny day with temperatures within a few degrees of high temps today, but slightly lower.
Besides lowering high temps tomorrow by a few degrees, forecast is on track and no other updates were needed.
***From Previous Discussion***
Southern California, and for that matter most of the West, continues to roast under temperatures that are 5-10 degrees above normal and abnormally high humidities due to ocean temperatures that are also 4-8 degrees above normal (particularly south of Pt Conception). Gusty north Sundowner winds expected again across southwest Santa Barbara County this evening and a wind advisory is in effect there again through early Monday morning.
The overall pattern will not change much this coming week. Models indicate a very slight decrease in 500mb hights through mid week but not really enough to make much of a difference. However, models also indicate a significant decrease in moisture aloft. While that theoretically should lower humidities somewhat, the SST's will likely remain well above normal and the temporary decrease in monsoon moisture could actually lead to a slight warm up due to less clouds. The end result probably being very similar conditions the next few days. While some models are indicating lowering heat risk after Monday, if the decrease in monsoon moisture does result in a net positive with the temperatures it may be necessary to extend some or all heat hazards beyond the current Monday evening expiration.
(Thu-Sun), 26/208 PM.
High pressure aloft will continue to dominate through next weekend, even strengthening later in the week as the high expands west from the four corners region and perhaps reaches 600dam by Sunday. Models are in relatively strong agreement that temperatures will be moving up at least 3-6 degrees starting Thursday and peaking Sat/Sun. This should push temperatures to around 105 or slightly higher in the warmer coastal valleys and closing in on 110 in the deserts and interior SLO County. If the current heat hazards are dropped Monday, chances are at least 60-80% that they will return late in the week and weekend.
Also have to keep a close eye on rapidly strengthening Hurricane Genevieve west of Mexico. While the projected path keeps it well south and west of the border due to strong anticyclonic flow aloft, it's likely to create another surge of dangerous south swells, perhaps as early as later this week.
27/0038z.
At 2358Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 800 ft deep. The top of the inversion was near 2500 ft with a temperature of 30 Celsius.
There is a 5-10 percent chance of a brief shower through 03Z for LA County TAFs, highest for KPMD and KWJF.
Low confidence in coastal TAFs after 03Z with a 20-50 percent chance of low MVFR/IFR cigs 06Z-16Z. The exception is KSBP and KSBA where there is only a 10-20 percent chance of low clouds during the overnight period. The timing of any CIGs that form could be off by at least +/- 2 hours. Some sites may have low clouds that form for a short time or that are intermittent.
High confidence in VFR conditions through at least Monday at KBUR KVNY KPMD KWJF and KPRB.
KLAX, Low to moderate confidence in the 00Z TAF. There is a 40% chance of BKN006-010 08Z-15Z Monday. High confidence in any east winds staying under 6 knots.
KBUR, High confidence in the 00Z TAF with VFR conds through the period.
26/207 AM.
For the outer waters, moderate to high confidence in the current forecast. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds can be expected most of the time through Thursday night. Local gale force gusts will be possible tonight, with periods of gales possible through the week. SCA level steep and choppy seas are also expected due to the consistent, moderate to strong winds.
For the inner waters north of Point Sal, generally high confidence in the current forecast. SCA level wind gusts should be prevalent much of the time through Wednesday evening followed by conds dropping below SCA levels for Thursday and Thursday night. Steep choppy seas are expected much of the time as well.
For the southern inner waters, moderate to high confidence in the current forecast. The western Santa Barbara Channel will likely see SCA level wind gusts at times mainly in the afternoon and evening hours through Tuesday night. Otherwise and elsewhere, conds will remain below SCA levels through Thursday night.
26/811 PM.
A long period (18-20 seconds) southern hemisphere swell will add to the hurricane swell from west of Baja. The combined swells will result in an increased risk of dangerous rip currents across the coastal beaches, as well as elevated surf of 3-6 ft across the Los Angeles and Ventura County Beaches. In addition there are strong longshore currents, and powerful breaking waves due to the long periods. Dangerous water conditions have been reported from area beaches, with numerous rescues. The highest hazard is on exposed south to southwest facing beaches.
A Beach Hazard Statement is now in effect through Wednesday afternoon for Los Angeles and Ventura County beaches and the Central Coast beaches.
The Eastern Pacific will remain active with Hurricane Genevieve forecast to track from a location S of Baja to the northwest over the next 5 days. This will result in additional southerly swells impacting the coastline through the middle of next week. As a result, the Beach Hazards Statement has been extended through Wednesday for south and southwest facing beaches.
Ca, Heat Advisory remains in effect until 8 PM PDT Monday for zones 38-88-342>345-348>358-362-366>382-548. (See LAXNPWLOX). Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Wednesday afternoon for zones 340-346-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday for zones 349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX). Extreme Heat Warning in effect until 8 PM PDT Monday for zone 383. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for zones 645-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 6 AM PDT Monday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT Monday for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect from 3 PM Monday to 3 AM PDT Tuesday for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
