02/526 PM.
A major and long lasting heat wave is expected to persist through all of next week with dangerously hot temperatures. Coastal clouds and fog are expected tonight into Saturday morning, with dense fog likely at times.
(Fri-Mon), 02/819 PM.
***UPDATE***
Two daily high temperature records were broken today with one tied, as the heat wave started to set in across the region. Long Beach and DTLA both reacheed 103 degrees, with Burbank tying it's record of 102. Temperatures across the region ranged in the high 70s and 80s across the Central Coast and Ventura Plains, while 90s to low 100s were recorded across the remainder of the region. These high temperatures range up to 10 degrees above normal for the Central Coast/Ventura Plains, while the rest of the area ranged 10-20 degrees (and up to 25 degrees) above normal for this time of year.
Overnight lows will also remain warm tonight with 70s common across the hottest locations from today. Besides some chances for Marine Layer clouds to make a return to the Central Coast, it's looking to be a fairly clear night south of Point Conception.
Not much change in temperatures are expected tomorrow for the majority of LA and Ventura counties, or really the next few days, while coastal areas, northern Santa Barbara County, and SLO County will see some warming tomorrow (thanks to a slight increase in offshore flow). Extreme Heat Warnings will continue to be in effect through the weekend and the majority of next week, while Heat Advisories go into effect for SLO and the northern SBA Counties starting tomorrow.
Besides some minor tweaks, no major changes were needed for the evening forecast update.
***From Previous Discussion***
The heat arrived in LA County today and actually exceeded expectations in and around the Downtown area where highs reached 102 as of 12:50pm, which not only matched the expected forecast for Saturday, but also broke the daily record. And 102 may not be the end of today's warm up there. The same exact situation happened at LGB as well. Outside of the LA Metro area, temperatures were about as expected with Woodland Hills at 103 and likely heading to a high around 105-107 so and Burbank in the 100-102 range.
For most LA areas today was the primary heating day with just minor fluctuations through next week, meaning a very hot next several days but minimal day to day changes. Coastal areas will likely get a little bump up Saturday with a very slight increase in offshore influence. For the rest of the 4 county area expecting 5-15 degrees of additional warming Saturday. After that, like LA County just small daily adjustments but overall very little change in this hot pattern. Heat advisories will go into effect for SLO and northern Santa Barbara Counties Saturday and Sunday. Based on the latest forecast trends that advisory will likely need to be extended at least another day or two.
(Tue-Fri), 02/145 PM.
Monday into the rest of the week will feel a lot like this coming weekend, with ongoing offshore winds and persistent high pressure. Will likely see some fluctuations in temperatures as the offshore gradient weakens a bit early in the week, though there are still some model solutions indicating a little more upper level northeast wind support and subsequently even hotter temperatures around Wednesday into Friday, leading to breaking daily high temperature records. Further out, models indicate tropical moisture along with an upper level trough could lead to cooling temperatures by the following weekend.
03/0024z.
At 2355Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer. There was a surface based inversion with a top at 900 ft and a temperature of 32 C.
High confidence in VFR TAFs for all sites away from the coast, and moderate to high confidence in LIFR/VLIFR conds at KSMX overnight. Low to moderate confidence in VFR conds for the remaining sites with a 30-40% chance of low clouds occuring overnight. LIFR/IFR conds are likely if clouds do occur. No wind issues expected.
KLAX, Moderate confidence in VFR conds for the 00Z TAF. There is a 20% chance of low clouds overnight, with a 30% chance of IFR VSBY around 3SM. Good confidence that any east wind component remains below 8 kts.
KBUR, High confidence in the VFR 00Z TAF. No wind issues expected.
02/737 PM.
Generally quiet conditions expected across the coastal waters through the forecast period. Localized Small Craft Advisory (SCA) gusts may occur each afternoon and evening between Point Conception and San Nicolas Island, off the coast of Point Dume, and across the San Pedro Channel.
02/807 PM.
Quiet conditions are expected through the weekend, aside from the heat. Meanwhile, another hurricane (Rachel) will likely bring a larger- than- Polo southerly swell to southern California for much of the coming work week. The window of most concern is Tuesday through Friday. Elevated surf up to 5-6 ft is likely with a lower chance of high surf 7ft or higher across exposed south facing beaches. High tides of 6.5-7.0 ft are expected. Unlike previous events, morning and evening tides will be similar in height. Initially, the swell will have a more SE direction (150-160) targeting areas like Long Beach Tuesday and Wednesday. As Rachel moves westward, the swell direction will become more southerly (170-190) Thursday and Friday targeting areas like Zuma. There is a high risk for Beach Hazard Statements and a moderate risk for Coastal Flood Advisories and High Surf Advisories along the LA/VTA coastline. Stay tuned for future updates.
Ca, Extreme Heat Warning in effect until 8 PM PDT Thursday for zones 38-87-88-349>358-362-366>375-548-550. (See LAXNPWLOX). Heat Advisory in effect from 10 AM Saturday to 8 PM PDT Sunday for zones 341>345-347-348. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ, NONE.
