21/746 PM.
Showers with a chance of thunderstorms will continue into Thursday. A weak Santa Ana will develop in the storm's wake by the weekend for dry and warmer conditions.
(Wed-Sat), 21/1021 PM.
The occluded low was positioned just offshore to the west of Point Conception as of 10 PM PDT. Currently, activity is greatest to the east over SLO/SB counties down to the Channel Islands. This activity has already prompted the issuance of several hazardous products including flood advisories/warnings, special weather statements, severe thunderstorm warning, and even special marine warnings over the coastal waters. Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop and rotate into these areas through Thursday afternoon/eve - including LA/VTA as well. Street flooding will be possible along with flooding and debris flows near recent burn areas where a flood watch remains in effect.
Going forward, the models continue to aim the most rain towards SLO and Santa Barbara Counties, and particularly the Santa Ynez range and the south coast. Hourly rate rains could exceed an 1"/hr at times. The flood watch remains in effect and has been extended for SB county to 6 PM Thursday. No watches currently in effect in SLO County but any thunderstorms that develop could result in heavy rain and flooding.
For VTA/LA counties, shower and thunderstorm coverage should be less. However, this does NOT reduce the threat for damaging winds or even a small chance for a brief, weak tornado. It may even slightly increase the threat due to more of a discrete storm mode.
Dry and warmer weather will return Fri and Sat with light offshore in place. At this time any offshore winds are expected to mostly below advisory levels.
(Sun-Wed), 21/1021 PM.
A low grade Santa Ana event will continue into next week continuing the dry and warmer pattern. Onshore flow is expected to return around mid week with temperatures returning to normal levels. There are some model solutions indicating a return of wet weather around Halloween.
22/0001z.
At 23Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor an inversion.
Low to moderate confidence in 00Z TAF package. Rain will turn to showers across the region this evening and continue through Thursday. There is a 30%-50% chance of MVFR CIGs at times with the rain.
There is a 10-20% chance of TSRA through the period with the chances spreading south and east this evening.
KLAX, Moderate confidence in 00Z TAF. There is a 50% chance that CIGs remain at VFR levels through the period with a 30%-50% chance of MVFR cigs at times. There is a 10%-20% chance of TSRA for much of the fcst period. There is 30% chance of an easterly wind component of 7-10 knots tonight.
KBUR, Low to moderate confidence in 00Z TAF. IFR cigs at fcst time should improve quickly. Then there is a 50% chance that CIGs remain at VFR levels through much the period with a 30%-50% chance of MVFR cigs at times. There is a 10%-20% chance of TSRA for much of the fcst period.
21/941 PM.
For the Outer Waters, high confidence in current forecast. Gusty Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds likely at times before becoming winds shift more to NW becoming more widespread on Friday. For Saturday through Monday morning, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels.
For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. There is a 30-40% chance of SCA level winds Friday afternoon and evening. Otherwise, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels through Monday morning.
For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. S to SE winds could gusty to SCA at times. From Thursday morning through Monday, For Thursday through Monday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels for most areas. The only exception will be the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel with a 50-70% chance of SCA level winds late Friday afternoon and evening.
Through Thursday, showers and isolated thunderstorms will impact all of the coastal waters. Any thunderstorms that develop will be capable of producing gusty/erratic winds, locally rough seas and even waterspouts.
Ca, Flood Watch in effect through Thursday afternoon for zones 348>353-362-369-370. (See LAXFFALOX). Beach Hazards Statement in effect through late Thursday night for zones 354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Thursday for zones 379-380. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Thursday for zones 650-655-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
