01/824 AM.
Quiet weather with near seasonal temperatures will prevail through at least Saturday. A cooling trend will begin Sunday and there is a chance of drizzle or light rain showers late Sunday into Monday. Dry and warmer conditions can be expected starting next Wednesday.
(tdy-Sun), 01/838 AM.
***UPDATE***
Marine layer clouds moved in again last night as expected and pushed all the way into the valleys with a depth again around 2500 feet. Expecting full clearing in most areas again today with temperatures very similar to yesterday. Some low clouds may linger at the coast from Oxnard north.
The rest of the forecast remains in tact with a chance of either drizzle or very light rain showers late Sunday into Monday as the next cut off low moves into the region.
***From Previous Discussion***
Forecast-wise, no significant issues through the short term period. With the moderate onshore pressure gradients and lower H5 thicknesses, marine layer stratus/fog is expected to become more widespread each night/morning, pushing well into the coastal valleys by Sunday morning. The stratus/fog should dissipate nicely each day. Other than the marine layer stratus, will just expect an increase in high level clouds with partly cloudy skies for most areas by Saturday and Sunday.
As for winds, northerly winds have begun to diminish across the western half of the Santa Ynez Range. So, the WIND ADVISORIES were allowed to expire. Otherwise, the moderate onshore gradients will continue to generate gusty southwesterly winds across interior sections each afternoon/evening. At this time, the strongest winds look to be on Sunday with the possibility of advisory-level winds across the LA mountains and Antelope Valley foothills.
As for temperatures, will expect near persistence temperatures today across the area. However, on Saturday, there will be a couple degrees of cooling then much more significant cooling can be expected on Sunday. In fact on Sunday, most areas will be the mid 60s to lower 70s.
(Mon-Thu), 01/102 AM.
For the extended, 00Z models continue to exhibit good synoptic agreement. At upper levels, low will move across Central California on Monday then a ridge will develop over the area Tuesday through Thursday. At the surface, moderate onshore flow will continue.
Forecast-wise, main "concern" in the extended period will be Monday as the upper low moves inland across Central California. With this passage, there will be some low chances of measurable precipitation (10-20%) with the best chances across the Central Coast. This low will be rather moisture-starved, so rainfall amounts, if any, will be only a few hundredths of an inch for most areas. However, the northwest corner of San Luis Obispo county could squeeze out around 0.10-0.20 inches as a worst case scenario. On Monday morning, there will be a decent chances of some patchy drizzle as the marine inversion deepens dramatically.
For Tuesday through Thursday, mostly clear and dry conditions are expected although there may be some continued coastal stratus and fog during the night/morning hours. With the ridge building overhead, a area-wide warming trend is expected. In fact by Thursday, temperatures will be topping out in the mid 70s to mid 80s.
01/1128z.
At 0900Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1700 feet deep. The top of the inversion was 4700 feet with a temp of 16 degrees Celsius.
For 12Z TAF package, high confidence in CAVU conditions for KWJF and KPMD.
For coastal and valley sites, moderate confidence in 12Z TAFs. Timing of flight category changes could be +/- 3 hours of current forecasts.
KLAX, Moderate confidence in 12Z TAF. Timing of flight category changes could be +/- 3 hours of current forecasts. No significant easterly wind component is expected.
KBUR, Moderate confidence in 12Z TAF. Timing of flight category changes could be +/- 3 hours of current forecasts.
01/807 AM.
For the Outer Waters, high confidence in current forecast. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds will occur across the most northwestern portion into tonight. Otherwise through Tuesday, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels.
For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, high confidence in current forecast. Today through Tuesday, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels.
For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, high confidence in current forecast. Today through Sunday, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels. For Tuesday and Wednesday, winds and seas are expected to continue to remain below SCA levels, but there is a 20% chance of SCA level winds in the afternoon and evening hours.
Ca, NONE. PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Saturday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
