31/852 AM.
Stagnant pattern through Friday, with below normal temperatures, coastal clouds, and moderate Sundowner winds. Several potential scenarios for the Labor Day weekend, with anything from tropical rain, to hot offshore winds, to benign conditions possible.
(tdy-Wed), 31/858 AM.
***UPDATE***
The forecast is in good shape this morning. Made some minor tweaks to the sky to better reflect the current conditions. Expecting only minor changes through Friday. Sundowner winds will continue to affect southwest Santa Barbara County, flirting with a Wind Advisory each night. Will probably not issue an Advisory for tonight, with Tuesday and Wednesday Nights looking like an Advisory will be needed.
Will look deeper at the challenging Labor Day weekend forecast. The main message is that while significant winds and rain associated with a tropical storm is possible, it is the least likely outcome at this point. Dry offshore flow is also a possible outcome, with everything in-between also on the table.
***From Previous Discussion***
Very benign weather on tap for the three day period. Broad west coast troffing assoc with a series of upper lows moving into WA. At the sfc there will be weak to mdt onshore flow over the interior areas following the typical diurnal curve. There will be onshore flow to the north today but Tuesday and esp Wednesday mornings there will be offshore flow from the north.
Morning low clouds and fog will mostly be confined to the Central Coast although some low clouds may sneak into the LGB-LAX area around sunrise.
With hgts falling to around 584 dam (normal ~587 dam) and onshore flow flow max temps will cool a degree or two both today and Tuesday. Most max temps will end up 3 to 6 degrees blo normal both days. A couple degrees of warming is likely Wednesday mostly due to the offshore flow from the north.
A 2 to 3 mb offshore push across the SBA south coast each evening will bring some sub-advisory level Sundowner winds each evening.
(Thu-Sun), 31/230 AM.
Broad troffing aloft and benign weather at the sfc will continue through Friday and very likely Saturday. Morning low clouds will mostly be confined to the Central Coast with otherwise mostly clear skies. Max temps will remain 3 to 6 degrees blo normal everywhere xcp the csts where max temps will be near normal.
The GFS is creating quite a bit of excitement by developing a tropical storm and moving it up the coast towards Srn CA next Sunday through Monday. While fun and exciting to talk about it must be loudly stated that no other mdl agrees with this forecast even the AI version of the GFS. The EC and and AI version of the EC keep this system well to west of the area. There is a slightly better chc that the storm will pull enough moisture up into Srn CA that it will trigger some showers - still even this scenario only has about a 20 percent chc of occuring. The most likely affects of this system will be more humidity and strong strong south swells.
31/1626z.
At 16Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 2000 feet deep. The top of the inversion was at 2500 feet with a temperature of 21 Celsius.
High confidence on VFR conditions through Tuesday at KWJF KPMD.
Window for VFR conditions to start at KPRB (17-19Z) KSBP (18-20Z) KSMX (18-20Z).
High confidence in IFR/MVFR conditions tonight through Tuesday at KPRB KSMX KSBP. Low confidence for KSBA KOXR KCMA KSMO KLAX KLGB KBUR KVNY. Any of these sites could see MVFR ceilings, but if they do, will likely only last 1-3 hours.
KLAX, Moderate confidence in VFR conditions by 18Z. High confidence in VFR conditions to follow through at least 06Z. Low confidence after that, but the majority of the 06-18Z period should be VFR with possible periods of MVFR. High confidence in an east winds staying under 8 knots.
KBUR, High confidence in VFR conditions through at least 08Z. There is a 30% chance of 1-3 hours of MVFR ceilings, with very low confidence on timing.
31/900 AM.
High confidence that Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds and short period seas will be most common from Point Sal to San Nicolas Island through the majority of the week. The western Santa Barbara Channel will be flirting with SCA each evening. The nearshore Central Coast waters will likely stay under SCA through Tuesday, with a window of low-end SCA Wednesday and Thursday.
Ca, Beach Hazards Statement in effect until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for zones 354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 2 AM PDT Tuesday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 6 AM PDT Wednesday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
