01/248 AM.
Onshore flow will continue to bring low clouds to the coasts and coastal valleys each night and morning. Some very light drizzle is possible each morning. Temperatures will remain well below normal for the next couple of days before a warming trend takes hold on Thursday. Many valley locations will warm into the 90s by early next week.
(tdy-Fri), 01/248 AM.
June Gloom will persist into July due to the interaction of broad troffing aloft and mdt to stg onshore flow at the sfc. The marine layer has separated into two layers one around 1500 ft and another around 3000 ft. The capping inversion is not very strong and as a result the low clouds are forming in a haphazard manor. By dawn, however, most of the csts and vlys will be covered by low clouds. Burn off will be similar to ydy with some vly areas remaining cloudy as the morning stratus cooks up into an afternoon stratacu layer. Max temps will be very similar to ydys with well below normal temps esp in the vlys (8 to 12 degrees below normal).
Over Thursday and Friday the hgts will rise a little which will smoosh the marine layer down some. The onshore flow will relax a little which will allow for faster and better clearing. So look for a little less marine layer clouds (still most csts and lower vlys will have morning clouds). Max temps will rise 2 to 4 degrees each day xcp for the beaches which will only see minor warming. Even with the two days of warming Friday's max temps will still be 4 to 8 degrees blo normal.
(Sat-Tue), 01/248 AM.
Not too much change in the weather during the xtnd portion of the forecast. The overall mdl consensus is that Srn CA will be sandwiched between a large upper low to the west of British Columbia and an upper high to the SE. While the upper low will keep the flow pattern weakly cyclonic with SW flow over the area, the upper high will bring slowly rising hgts. Onshore flow at the sfc will continue but it looks to be 2 to 3 mb weaker than the short term gradients.
The rising hgts and offshore trends will reduce the marine layer in coverage and duration. Most of the csts will likely remain under constant night through morning low clouds. The vlys, however, will be sunnier.
Max temps will be on the upswing each day (maybe not the nearshore area which will see the strongest sea breeze). There will only be slight warming on Sat and Sun but early next week there could be 1 to 3 or 2 to 4 degrees of warming each day (the ensembles show a 25 percent chc of 3 to 6 degrees of warming). Max temps early next week should be in the 70s across the csts and 80s and lower 90s in the vlys. These values are only a degree or two less than normal.
Winds really should not be an issue for most of the area, but it looks like there will be gusty sub advisory level north winds across the SBA south coast each evening and overnight.
01/0949z.
At 0832Z at KLAX, there were multiple cloud decks at 1500 ft and 3800 ft, with an inversion at 6000 ft with a temperature of 15 C.
High confidence in VFR TAFs for KPMD and KWJF.
Low confidence in remaining TAFs as the marine layer reforms and lowers in a chaotic way. CIG between 012 and 035 will be common and may switch between various levels. Better confidence in VFR timing but lower confidence in CIG hgt.
KLAX, Low confidence in TAF. Cigs will likely bounce between 015 and 025 with a slight (20 percent) chc of 035 hgts. VFR conds could arrive as early as 1930Z. Low confidence in timing and hgt of the low clouds tonight. High confidence in any easterly wind staying under 6 knots.
KBUR, Moderate confidence in TAF. Cigs will likely bounce between 015 and 030. VFR conds may arrive as early as 19Z. Low confidence in timing and hgt of the low clouds tonight.
01/218 AM.
Gusty northwest winds 20-25 knots will be common near the western Channel Islands and south to San Nicolas Island each afternoon and evening through Independene Day weekend, with a 30-50 percent chance for Small Craft Advisories (SCA) to be needed each day through the week. Highest chances exist Thursday and Friday. Then chances for more widespread SCA level winds increase Sunday.
Otherwise, conditions are expected to remain below SCA criteria. Fairly seasnonal west to northwest wind gusts of 15-20 knots will be common nearshore each afternoon and evening through Independence Day as well.
All waters will see short-period choppy seas through the period.
Ca, NONE. PZ, NONE.
