17/456 PM.
A stormy pattern will continue for most of the week, with periods of heavy rain moving north to south across the area tonight. There will be lulls in the shower activity much of the day Wednesday, followed by additional rain Thursday. Afternoon high temperatures will mostly be in the 50s through Thursday. Friday and Saturday are expected to be dry but another storm is possible for Sunday and the middle of next week.
(tdy-Fri), 17/1255 PM.
The next system is quickly moving down the coast from Monterey with rain coverage increasing along the Central Coast this afternoon and isolated showers to the south. Most of the rain from this system though will fall during the overnight hours tonight. There is a small threat of thunderstorms as well but the main impacts will be widespread gusty winds along with periods of heavy rain and rapidly lowering snow levels. While rain totals likely won't be as high as some recent storms, mostly under an inch for coast/valleys and 1-2" in the mountains, there could be some brief periods of very heavy rain accompanied by very strong winds possibly exceeding 60 mph at times that could easily blow down trees and cause damage. The latest hi res models are indicating a greater than 60% chance of wind gusts exceeding 70mph in and around the mountains and Antelope Valley tonight and over 40 mph across the coast and valleys, so the chances for wind damage tonight is quite high.
***RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO TAKE DOWN ANY AWNINGS OR UMBRELLAS AND AVOID PARKING CARS NEAR TREES.***
Much colder air will be moving into the area tonight as well and snow levels will drop to 3000 feet or locally lower leading to a high chance for accumulating snow over the Grapevine on Interstate 5 and surrounding areas. Anyone planning travel over the mountains tonight, including Interstate 5, should be prepared for delays or closures due to snow.
By Wednesday morning the storm will have mostly passed bSYNAFDLOXut lingering showers are likely along the Central Coast as the winds aloft shift to northwest. That direction is not favorable for showers south of Pt Conception due to the blocking from the Transverse range but can't rule out a shower or two, especially in the mountains through morning hours. Otherwise, it will a cool day and evening with breezy west to northwest winds.
The next system is still on track for Thursday and exiting late in the afternoon and evening with again some cool and breezy west to northwest winds to follow. Several inches of additional snow are expected in the mountains, especially above 5000 feet. Snow levels are likely to reach 4000 feet Thursday morning and again Thursday night into Friday morning when snow could accumulate over Interstate 5. Rain amounts expected to be around a quarter to half inch for coast/valleys and up to an inch in the mountains. Slightly higher amounts possible north of Pt Conception due to the favorable northwest wind maintaining showers there longer. Lingering north slope snow showers near the Grapevine are possible into Friday morning potentially impacting the road there.
Dry but very cool Friday. Possibly some morning frost or freeze conditions in the valleys depending on how quickly the storm clears out and how much wind lingers overnight.
(Sat-Tue), 17/108 PM.
Saturday will be the nicest day of the next 7 as a weak ridge passes overhead. It will be a mostly sunny and dry day. 3 to 6 degrees of warming will bring max temps up into the 60s.
Another large Gulf of Alaska system moves down and into the PACNW Sunday and bring moist cyclonic flow to Srn CA once again. The ensembles are all over the place and the forecast broad brushes 30-40 percent chances of rain across the entire area Sunday through Tuesday. This reflects mdl confusion and not a three day rain event. This system does not look like it has that much moisture to work with and rainfall amounts at this time do not look that impactful.
There is another storm that models are targeting for later next Tuesday into Wednesday but this one appears to be a weaker system with snow levels at or above 10,000 feet.
18/0050z.
At 2348Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer or marine inversion.
Overall, low confidence in the 00Z TAF package. Shower activity through the period will result in conditions bouncing between VFR and MVFR CIGs with IFR VSBY at times. Low confidence in timing of these flight category changes. There will also be a 15-30% chance of TSTMs in the 00Z-15Z time frame with the highest chances north of Point Conception.
Strong and gusty southwesterly winds will develop later this afternoon and evening, before shifting to the northwest by Wednesday morning. Confidence in wind speeds is low as values could be up to 10 knots lower than forecast.
KLAX, Low confidence in the 00Z TAF. Increasing shower threat through the period will result in conditions bouncing between VFR and MVFR levels, but confidence in timing remains low. There is a 15% chance of TSTMs in the 02Z-15Z time frame. Lower confidence in the magnitude of gusty SW winds this evening and tonight, with a shift to W winds expected by around 11Z.
KBUR, Low confidence in the 00Z TAF. Increasing shower threat through the period will result in conditions bouncing between VFR and MVFR levels, but confidence in timing remains low. There is a 15% chance of TSTMs in the 02Z-15Z time frame. Gusty winds forecast tonight could be up to 10 knots weaker than currently forecast.
17/1129 AM.
For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Through Wednesday morning, high confidence in GALE FORCE westerly winds and Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level seas. From Wednesday afternoon through Friday, high confidence in combination of SCA level winds and seas. For Saturday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. On Sunday, there is a 40-50% chance of a combination of SCA level winds and seas.
For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Through Wednesday morning, high confidence in GALE FORCE winds and SCA level seas. From Wednesday afternoon through Friday, high confidence in a combination of SCA level winds and seas. For Saturday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. On Sunday, there is a 40-50% chance of a combination of SCA level winds and seas.
For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, high confidence in current forecast. GALE FORCE winds will develop late this afternoon and evening, and continue through Wednesday morning. From Wednesday afternoon through Friday, SCA level winds are expected while seas remain below SCA levels. For Saturday and Sunday, winds and seas will remain below SCA levels.
17/1142 AM.
A period of very large waves is expected across the coastal waters through Friday, with surf generally peaking Today and Wednesday across west facing beaches. High Surf Advisories and Beach Hazard Statements are in effect for all coasts, please see the CFWLOX and SRFLOX products for more details.
Elevated high tides as the new moon cycle approaches will coincide with the arrival of the higher surf and swell. This will bring an elevated chance of coastal flooding or minor tidal overflows during the time of the high tides today and especially Wednesday morning.
Ca, Flood Watch in effect until 3 AM PST Wednesday for zones 38-340>353. (See LAXFFALOX). Wind Advisory remains in effect until 3 AM PST Wednesday for zones 38-340>349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory remains in effect until 6 AM PST Wednesday for zones 88-350-352-354>358-362-366>375-548. (See LAXNPWLOX). Flood Watch in effect through late tonight for zones 88-354>358-362-366>383-548. (See LAXFFALOX). High Surf Advisory in effect until 10 PM PST Friday for zones 340-346-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Wednesday morning for zones 349-350. (See LAXCFWLOX). Winter Storm Warning now in effect from 9 PM this evening to 7 AM PST Friday for zones 353-376-378-379-381-382. (See LAXWSWLOX). Winter Storm Warning now in effect until 7 AM PST Friday for zones 377-380. (See LAXWSWLOX). Wind Advisory remains in effect until 10 PM PST this evening for zone 383. (See LAXNPWLOX). High Wind Warning remains in effect from 10 PM this evening to 6 AM PST Wednesday for zone 383. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ, Gale Warning in effect until 9 AM PST Wednesday for zones 645-670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 8 PM PST this evening for zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect from 8 PM this evening to 9 AM PST Wednesday for zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
