16/1232 PM.
Near to slightly below normal temperatures are expected to continue this weekend with low clouds and fog lingering into the afternoon across coast and some valleys south of Pt Conception. Gusty winds are expected at times along the Central Coast, and across the mountains and deserts through the weekend, strongest today. Hazardous seas will affect the coastal waters over the next several days. Warmer temperatures are expected next week.
(Sat-Tue), 16/802 PM.
Mixed bag of temperatures today as coastal/valley areas were a bit warmer (with more sunshine) while interior sections as well as the Central Coast were a bit cooler today. Gusty northwesterly winds continue early this evening with gusts in the 35-55 MPH range across the mountains and deserts.
Forecast-wise for the short term, no significant changes to previous thinking. With the inside slider dropping into the Great Basin tonight/Sunday, strong northwesterly winds will continue. Wind gusts of 40-60 MPH will continue across the mountains, deserts and southwestern Santa Barbara county through Sunday evening. So, will keep the current slate of HIGH WIND WARNINGS in effect through the day on Sunday. Along the Central Coast, winds are slowly diminishing and the WIND ADVISORIES for these area will likely be allowed to expire at 900 PM. For Sunday night and Monday, the winds shift to the northeast and focus across Ventura and LA counties. Based on high resolution models, LAX-DAG pressure gradient is only forecast to top out around -3.0 mb, but there will be some decent support. So, there will be some gusty northeast winds across the mountains and valleys in the usual Santa Ana wind corridor. At this time, based on ensembles, there is a 50-70% chance of advisory-level northeast winds across the mountains, but only a 20-40% chance across the valleys. So, future shifts will need to watch for the potential for wind advisories Sunday night and Monday. By Monday night and Tuesday, a weak diurnal flow pattern is expected with winds remaining weak.
Other than the winds, no significant issues are expected through Tuesday. The marine inversion will rather somewhat deep through the period, but the areal coverage is expected to decrease and become more chaotic from day-to-day. Other than any marine layer stratus, skies should remain mostly clear. As for temperatures, will expect some slight cooling on Sunday. However for Monday and Tuesday, the offshore gradients will allow for a nice warming trend. By Tuesday, most areas will have highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s.
(Wed-Sat), 16/107 PM.
Wednesday is expected to be warmest day for coast and valleys before offshore flow weakens, then turns onshore Thursday and increasing through next weekend. Warmest valley areas should reach the mid 90s while intermediate areas between the beach and the valleys will be in the low to mid 80s.
From Wednesday into next weekend models are showing weakening high pressure aloft and gradients gradually turning back to a standard moderate to strong onshore flow pattern which likely would bring a return of the marine layer and much cooler temperatures.
17/0400z.
At 0120Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 3800 ft deep. The top of the inversion was at 4900 ft with a temperature of 12 C.
For desert airfields (KPMD & KWJF), gusty west winds (30-40kt) are expected after 00Z. MVFR VSBYs 4-5SM with BLDU are possible during this time. Moderate to low confidence in remaining TAFs due to timing of low clouds and gusty winds.
KLAX, Moderate confidence in TAF. East winds are possible through 17Z, with an east wind component of up to 10 kts possible Sunday.
KBUR, Moderate confidence in TAF. No wind issues expected.
16/121 PM.
Dangerous sea conditions will continue through the weekend. These conditions could capsize or damage small and large vessels. Mariners should adjust plans NOW to remain in safe harbor.
GALE WARNINGS are in effect for the inner waters along the Central Coast, all the outer waters, and the Santa Barbara Channel this weekend. Please refer to MWWLOX for further details.
For the outer waters from the Central Coast to San Nicolas Island, high confidence forecast. Widespread, high-end, STRONG GALES will continue through the weekend. Local gusts may reach STORM FORCE late this afternoon into evening. The Gale Force winds will diminish overnight Sunday, then Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds will continue into late Monday night, with a 20% chance of lingering through Tuesday. As for seas, SCA level seas will continue to build through the weekend, becoming large 10-18 foot steep seas, then diminishing throughout Monday and Monday night.
For the inner waters along the Central Coast, high-end, STRONG GALE FORCE level winds are expected through Sunday evening. Winds will then drop below Gale force and even SCA levels overnight Sunday. As for seas, SCA level seas will continue through the weekend and could linger into Monday afternoon or early evening.
For the inner waters south of Point Conception, GALE WARNING remains in effect for the Santa Barbara Channel through late night, with a moderate risk of GALE FORCE winds again Sunday afternoon and evening. These winds will be strongest across western and southern portions of the channel.
For the southern inner waters adjacent to the L.A. Coast, SCA conditions are expected this afternoon through Sunday morning. Highest seas and strongest winds expected across western portion. Localized GALE Force wind gusts are possible this evening near Anacapa Island.
Ca, High Surf Advisory in effect until 9 AM PDT Monday for zones 340-346-354. (See LAXCFWLOX). High Wind Warning remains in effect until 9 AM PDT Sunday for zones 349-351>353-376>378. (See LAXNPWLOX). Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Monday morning for zones 349-350-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). High Wind Warning remains in effect until 11 PM PDT Sunday for zones 381-383. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory remains in effect from noon to 11 PM PDT Sunday for zone 382. (See LAXNPWLOX). Red Flag Warning in effect until 10 PM PDT this evening for zones 381-383. (See LAXRFWLOX). PZ, Gale Warning in effect until 9 PM PDT Sunday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect until 5 AM PDT Sunday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 AM PDT Sunday for zone 655. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
