02/1205 AM.
Today will be the hottest day of the week. Still, above normal temperatures are expected well into next week. Dense fog will affect some coastal areas.
(tdy-Wed), 02/1235 PM.
Temperatures have begun to cool today as our natural air conditioner (ie. the ocean breeze) kicks in. Most areas are only down 2-4 degrees but the earlier onset of the sea breeze is bringing some overdue relief at least to coast and valleys. Unfortunately, that trend is not reaching farther interior areas like the desert, the interior mountains, and interior SLO and Santa Barbara Counties so little change there.
Going forward, there will be a very modest cool down for coast and coastal valleys the next couple days, but interior areas not so much, and especially the deserts. Latest temperature guidance there suggests minimal cool down, if any, through at least mid week and possibly through next weekend as 950mb temps remain in the 38-40c range, which typically means closing in on 110 across the deserts and 100+ in the other far inland locations mentioned above. For now have gone ahead and extended the desert Extreme Heat Warming through Wednesday, matching our neighboring forecast offices. Will likely need to do the same for the rest of the far interior areas but will hold off until at least the current heat hazard ends this evening. Not expecting to need any heat hazards for the coast or coastal valleys at least through mid week as there will be enough onshore flow to keep temperatures more moderate (though still above normal by 1-5 degrees.
The only other potential hazard may be some patchy dense fog near the interior edge of the marine stratus push, which may just barely squeak into the coastal valleys.
(Thu-Sun), 02/1254 PM.
After Tuesday temperature trends are expected to level off and possibly increase a degree or two as high pressure over AZ nudges west again through next weekend. In addition, there are some signals in the ensemble pressure gradients indicating some light offshore trends towards the end of this coming week that could result in warming temperatures across the coast and valleys as well. And as mentioned, it will remain very hot over the interior and would estimate at least a 60% chance of extended the desert Extreme Heat Warning through the end of the week and around a 20-30 percent chance of at least heat advisories for the coastal valleys. One factor that will need to be monitored is models are still indicating increasing monsoon moisture later in the week, especially by the weekend, that could introduce another heat risk factor with higher humidities and in turn warmer overnight lows.
02/1829z.
At 18Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1400 ft deep. The top of the inversion was near 2300 feet with a temp of 27 degrees Celsius.
High confidence in VFR conds for KPRB, KBUR, KVNY, KPMD and KWJF.
Low to moderate confidence elsewhere with timing off by 2-3 hours and and 20-40 percent that VFR conds prevail. There is also a 20-30 percent chance of an early arrival sometime 23-03Z for KOXR, KLAX, KSMO.
KLAX, Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 20 percent chance that VFR conds will prevail tonight. No significant east wind component expected.
KBUR, High confidence in CAVU TAF.
02/1116 AM.
For the western portion of the Santa Barbara Channel and the inner waters north of Point Sal, there is a 30-40% chance of SCA winds during this afternoon and evening hours. Otherwise conditions are expected to remain below SCA levels.
For the Outer Waters, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds and seas will continue through tonight before beginning to subside early this coming week. Winds will generally peak at around 30 knots, strongest during the evening hours.
Seas of 7-10 feet will impact the outer waters through today, due to a combination of long-period southerly swell from a distant tropical cyclone and shorter- period northwesterly swell/wind- waves caused by the prevalent NW winds. As a result, steep, hazardous seas will be common, especially over the outer waters, extending to nearshore waters off the Central Coast. Seas will begin to subside as the winds weaken late tonight into early next week.
Dense fog will affect some of the coastal waters each night and morning through much of the week.
02/155 AM.
The surf will diminish further today, but moderate to locally strong rip currents will still be common on exposed south to southwest facing beaches.
Continue to use extra caution if you are at the beach, and be sure to ask lifeguards if and where it is safe to swim.
Ca, Extreme Heat Warning in effect until 8 PM PDT this evening for zones 38-88-343>345-351>353-356>358-368>376-378-379-548. (See LAXNPWLOX). Heat Advisory in effect until 8 PM PDT this evening for zones 342-348>350-354-355-362-366-367-377-380. (See LAXNPWLOX). Extreme Heat Warning in effect until 8 PM PDT Wednesday for zones 381>383. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
