29/140 PM.
Temperatures will be 10-20 degrees above normal through at least Saturday. Locally breezy Santa Ana winds are likely again Friday, mainly in the mountains. Some cooling expected Sunday and Monday then another warming trend is expected the rest of next week.
(Thu-Sun), 29/743 PM.
***UPDATE***
Overall, a very quiet evening across the area. Current satellite and surface observations indicate clear skies across the area. Offshore winds continue across the area with gusts in the 30-40 MPH range in the usual northeast wind-prone areas.
For the immediate short term, only issue will continue to be the winds. Overnight, will expect the northeasterly winds to continue, but remain below advisory levels. There is a chance that some advisories may be needed for Friday, but will let the night shift make that determination. Otherwise, skies will remain mostly clear overnight.
Current forecast has great handle on the immediate short term. So, no significant updates are anticipated.
***From Previous Discussion***
As expected, pressure gradients have trended strongly offshore, and while there are some gusty northeast winds across portions of LA/Ventura Counties and in the Santa Lucia Mountains in SLO County, the primary weather feature that most people will notice today and through the at least Saturday will be the unseasonably warm temperatures. The 24 hour temperature change chart shows temps up 10-20 degrees from yesterday at this time across LA/Ventura Counties and just slightly less along the Central Coast. The peak temperatures will be Friday and Saturday when some daily records may be broken.
(Mon-Thu), 29/229 PM.
High pressure returns Tuesday with again rapidly warming temperatures through at least Thursday. There is a potential for even warmer temperatures next week, possibly as high as 90, as a 585dam high establishes itself somewhere over the West coast and strong offshore flow returns. Still not seeing a ton of upper level wind support but would not be surprised if some low end wind advisories are needed at times, mainly again in the mountains.
Prospects for rain any time soon are bleak. Longer range ensembles are still pegging around the 9th or 10th of Feb for our next chance of any rain, but most of those solutions are well under a half inch.
30/0343z.
At 0330Z at KLAX, there was a surface-based inversion. The top of the inversion was 1200 feet with a temperature of 22 degrees Celsius.
For 06Z TAF package, high confidence in CAVU conditions for most sites through the period. The only exception will be KPRB where there is a 20-30% chance of LIFR/VLIFR conditions in the 12Z-17Z time frame.
Offshore flow through the period will generate light to locally moderate LLWS and turbulence across the foothills and mountains.
KLAX, High confidence in 06Z TAF as CAVU conditions are expected through the period. No significant easterly wind component is expected.
KBUR, High confidence in 06Z TAF as CAVU conditions are expected through the period.
29/729 PM.
A combination of seas near 10 feet and occasional north to northeast wind gusts of 20-25 knots will create periods Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level conditions through late tonight across the waters southwest through northwest of the Channel Islands. There is a 30% chance for these conditions to linger into the morning hours Friday, best chances north and west of Point Conception, including nearshore. Conditions will improve through Saturday, then moderate confidence in SCA conds returning late this weekend into early next week.
There is a 25% chance of SCA wind gusts to impact the nearshore waters along the Central Coast late tonight through Friday morning, but any SCA level wind gusts will likely be localized near Cayucos and Morro Bay. Offshore winds will likely return next week, but low confidence in maximum wind speeds.
Inside the Southern California Bight, nearshore areas from Ventura through Malibu will see northeast wind gusts of 20-25 knots during the late evening to early afternoon hours through Saturday, strongest late tonight into Friday morning. There will be relative lulls outside of the peak hours. There is also a 50% chance of these winds reaching Anacapa and Santa Cruz Islands but highly unlikely that winds greater than 10-15 knots reach Avalon or Two Harbors. Conditions will then improve, with Santa Ana winds possibly returning by early next week.
Ca, NONE. PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 AM PST Friday for zone 655. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Friday for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
