06/1259 PM.
Mostly clear skies, dry conditions, and a general warming trend with periods of offshore winds will continue through the weekend. The warmest and windiest conditions are likely today through Sunday. Above normal temperatures will continue into early next week
(Fri-Mon), 06/124 PM.
Offshore conditions will continue through the weekend, meaning well above normal temperatures for coast and coastal valleys and periods of gusty northeast winds, mainly LA/Ventura Counties. Slight (1-2 degrees) of warning is expected each day through Sunday, resulting in highs in the 85-90 range. Santa Ana winds will be gusty at times, strongest in the LA Mountains and through the Highway 14 and 126 corridors but mainly below wind advisory levels. Could see some isolated gusts to around 50mph in the usual favored areas in the LA Mountains but with offshore gradients expected to peak no higher than around 4mb and upper level winds peaking around 30-40 kt most populated areas should stay in the advisory territory.
High temperatures will remain well above normal through early next week, peaking Sunday. Lower elevations will be in the 80s with possibly an isolated 90 here and there. It's a close call for heat advisories in the coastal areas due to fewer cooling opportunities there but very low humidities will mitigate that somewhat.
Due to the very dry conditions, overnight temperatures in areas where winds are light will be in the 30s and 40s. Areas that are windy will generally stay in the upper 50s and 60s.
(Tue-Fri), 06/621 PM.
Tuesday through Wednesday temperatures will remain warm, though slightly cooler than the peak of the heat forecasted for this weekend. Expect around 5 to 10 degrees above normal mid-week, with widespread highs in the 80s. Weak offshore flow will persist through Wednesday, thus marine layers clouds will be minimal and most likely non- existent.
Starting Thursday, onshore flow will increase and 500 mb heights are favored to plummet as a trough approaches the region. Temperatures are expected to fall to near normal by Friday with widespread highs in the the 70s. As for rain, ensembles indicate a potential storm system sometime between next Friday and the following Tuesday (Nov 13-17th), or possibly even beyond that. There is high uncertainty and details remain very fuzzy to say the least. Possible outcomes range all the way from minimal rain up to a significant storm system with periods of heavy rain. As this potential storm is still very far in the future, please keep up to date with the forecast for the latest updates.
06/2338z.
At 2318Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 600 feet deep. The top of the inversion was 1300 feet with a temperature of 23 degrees Celsius.
High confidence in VFR conditions for all sites through the period. Gusty E-NE Santa Ana winds will occur through the period, impacting sites in favored corridor. Offshore winds will generate light to moderate LLWS/turbulence across the mountains and foothills through the period, peaking overnight and into Saturday afternoon.
KLAX, High confidence in VFR TAF. Moderate confidence in any east wind component remaining below 8 kt, but periods of light NE to E winds expected overnight.
KBUR, High confidence in VFR TAF. Light to moderate LLWS possible overnight into Saturday morning. Low chance for gusty NE winds to surface tonight, but the window of opportunity is 06Z-18.
06/635 PM.
For the Outer Waters, high confidence in current forecast. Tonight through Tuesday, a combination of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas will continue, thus the current SCAs will likely be extended. On Wednesday, both winds and seas are likely to drop below SCA levels.
For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Tonight through Sunday, there is a 30-50% chance of a combination of SCA level winds and seas. For Monday through Tuesday, there is a 60-80% chance of SCA level seas and a 40-50% chance of SCA level winds. On Wednesday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels.
For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. For the nearshore waters from Point Mugu to Santa Monica, there is a 60-80% chance of SCA level northeast winds tonight through Saturday with the best chances Saturday morning and a 30-40% chance on Sunday. Elsewhere across the southern Inner Waters, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels through Wednesday.
06/635 PM.
High tides will build each morning and peak Sunday and Monday at 7.2 to 7.6 feet (MLLW). Meanwhile, a west to northwest swell will slowly build into the area, peaking across the Central Coast tonight and Monday, and peaking everywhere else around Monday. This combination of high tides and high surf will bring hazardous swimming conditions, dangerous conditions on rock jetties, and a risk for moderate coastal flooding. If you are in the coastal areas, listen to advice from your local officials.
With the daily high tides changing only a little through Tuesday, the risk for coastal flooding will peak when the surf peaks (tonight and Monday for the Central Coast, and Monday for the rest of the coastal areas). This coastal flooding event will differ in several ways from the past episodes this year. First, while tides will be high, they will not be nearly as high as the record breaking tides from last week. This means that the impacts to harbor areas and Naples Island will generally be minor compared to last week. Shallow flooding should be expected, especially for low-lying walkways, but of a lesser degree less in severity and coverage. Second, for the beach-side coastal areas, the swell is from the west to northwest and not from the south, which characterized the coastal flooding episodes of September and early October. This means that areas hit hard in those events, like Long Beach and Malibu, are less at risk with this upcoming event. For west-facing shores however, the risk is much higher than events in the recent past. Areas like Oceano and Cayucos on the Central Coast, and Ventura on the southern coasts, have elevated risks of moderate coastal flooding. Moderate coastal flooding impacts include things like flooded sandy beach areas, moderate beach erosion, as well as shallow flooding of beach parking lots and bike paths. Isolated damage is unlikely but cannot be ruled out especially considering the extent of beach erosion we have already seen - which limits the natural protective buffer between the ocean and coastal infrastructure.
For the Central Coast, a High Surf Advisory and Coastal Flood Advisory will be in effect through Monday, since the peak of the surf is earlier compared to other areas. For all other coasts, a Beach Hazards Statement will be in effect through Tuesday, with a key note that some areas (especially Ventura County) may need to be upgraded to a Coastal Flood and/or High Surf Advisory around Monday when the surf peaks.
Ca, Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Tuesday morning for zones 87-349-350-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). Coastal Flood Advisory in effect until 10 PM PST Monday for zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX). High Surf Advisory in effect until 10 PM PST Monday for zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX). Red Flag Warning in effect from 2 AM to 6 PM PST Saturday for zones 288-369-370-375-379. (See LAXRFWLOX). PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PST Saturday for zones 655-670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
