09/813 PM.
Cool conditions will continue through Tuesday. A significant warm up is expected to start on Wednesday, likely lasting well into next week.
(Mon-Thu), 09/856 PM.
***UPDATE***
Temperatures trended cooler today with low clouds along the Central Coast and onshore winds. Highs were in the 60s to 70s over most of the area, quite a change from Sunday. Expecting Tuesday to be similar, with onshore flow and more marine layer clouds and fog spreading deeper into the valleys. However, by Tuesday night offshore winds will develop, adding in warming as strong high pressure builds over the region. Current wind advisories look on track, and will likely need more Wednesday night into Thursday.
***From Previous Discussion***
After a huge cool down today some areas will see a bit more cooling thanks to strong onshore trends and a likely return of widespread night to morning low clouds and fog to coasts and most coastal valleys this evening through Wednesday morning.
Moderate offshore trends Tuesday evening through Thursday morning will support gusty northwest to northwest winds through Wednesday, likely becoming northeast into Thursday. Advisory level winds are expected to mainly be focused across interior mountains Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning and we have issued a Wind Advisory accordingly. There is a 30-50 percent chance of advisory level winds continuing into Thursday extending into coastal and coastal valley areas prone to Santa Ana winds.
The offshore trends and a significant ridge building overhead will support 5-15 degrees of warming Wednesday and into Thursday with a 50-70 percent chance of moderate, advisory level heat. Thursday may also mark a prolonged period of daytime highs in the 90s away from the coast and especially for the coastal valleys.
(Fri-Mon), 09/249 PM.
The offshore flow weakens some on Friday - enough to lower the morning offshore winds some, but not enough to affect temps, which will end up very close to Thursday's very warm values.
Over the weekend the ridge will break down while the offshore flow from the north will weaken and the onshore push to the east will increase. Look for a couple of degrees of cooling each day with max temps remaining well above normal with moderate heat impacts potentially continuing through the weekend and even well into next week away from the coast. In fact another more significant round of heat is possible by the middle part of next week.
No rain on the horizon through at least 10 days.
10/0221z.
At 2240Z, there was no marine layer and no inversion.
High to moderate confidence in VFR TAFs through this afternoon. Low confidence in min flight cats and timing of marine layer return, especially for coastal TAFs from KSBA southward. There is a 30% chance for VLIFR to LIFR conds at KPRB, KSBP, and KSMX once cigs arrive tonight. Arrival of cigs may be off +/- 4 hours.
KLAX, High confidence in VFR TAF through at least 00Z. Then moderate confidence in cigs returning tonight, but low confidence in timing (+/- 4 hours from TAF). There is a 50% chance for IFR conds when cigs are present. Any east wind component is expected to remain below 6-8 kt.
KBUR, High confidence in VFR TAF through at least 06Z. 40% chance for no cigs tonight. Timing of arrival may be off +/- 4 hours, and 40% chance for LIFR conds, 10% chance for VLIFR.
09/822 PM.
For the waters southwest through northwest of the Channel Islands and the nearshore waters along the Central Coast, marginal SCA level winds will occur beyond 30 NM offshore of the Central Coast to around Point Conception and continue through early Thursday morning. More widespread SCA conditions will develop from each afternoon and evening with a moderate to high (30-50 percent) chance of affecting the nearshore waters along the Central Coast, highest Tuesday afternoon and evening.
Inside the southern California bight, winds and seas should remain below SCA level through the period, except for a moderate (30-40 percent) chance of SCA level west to northwest winds developing across the Santa Monica Bay and into the San Pedro Channel, and in the Santa Barbara Channel, on Wednesday afternoon and evening.
Ca, Wind Advisory in effect from 5 PM Tuesday to 9 AM PDT Wednesday for zones 352-353-376>378-381. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Thursday for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
