13/1214 AM.
Warm but below normal temperatures will continue through Thursday, with coastal morning low clouds. Gusty Sundowner winds will continue through Monday. Temperatures look to increase towards the end of the week.
(tdy-Tue), 13/1224 AM.
Steady lowering in day-to-day temperatures remains in play through Tuesday for several reasons. One, an upper-level trough of low pressure over the western United States will amplify each day. Two, surface pressure gradients will remain healthily onshore. Three, gusty Central Coast and Sundowner winds will peak over the weekend, then quickly weaken. These winds have limited the low clouds and fog development recently, but come Monday and Tuesday all indications are for a huge coastal eddy forming in their wake with rapid low cloud development and expansion. Woudl expect a few random reports of drizzle as well. All of this will boost the temperature drop. With all that stated, highs will still generally be in the mid 70s to mid 80s which is not cold, but not hot either and below normal by 5 or 10 degrees.
The aforementioned Sundowner winds will peak Sunday Night in terms of strength and areal coverage. While the eastern Santa Ynez Range now looks fairly tame through Sunday morning, these winds should expand across the entire range Sunday Night as the SBA-BFL gradient goes from near neutral to -4 millibars. Will leave the current Wind Advisories as is as a result, carrying us through Sunday Night.
(Wed-Sat), 13/1234 AM.
Little change expected from Tuesday into Wednesday with below normal temperatures and lots of marine layer clouds. High pressure over the southeastern states will expand to the west Thursday through Saturday, but that expansion will be battling a small yet potent closed low spinning somewhere between San Fransisco and Portland. How those two features interact is still up in the air, with a fairly large spread in the ensemble projections in terms of the warmth of the air mass and the resulting high temperatures. A warming trend is very likely, but it could be only 5 degrees or it could be 15 degrees, or somewhere in between. The warmest scenario would knock on the door of some targeted Heat Advisories, but that is about a 20% chance at this point. The tropical Storm train off western Mexico looks to remain active through the week, but not seeing any significant moisture surge signals into California at this point.
13/0903z.
At 09Z over KLAX, the marine layer was 1500 feet deep. The top of the inversion was 3500 feet and 22 degrees Celsius.
High confidence in VFR conditions through at least Monday at KPRB, KSBA, KPMD, KWJF. Some low-end LLWS is possible at KSBA each evening 03-10Z with gusty north winds in the nearby hills.
For this morning: LIFR/IFR ceilings possible at KSBP (10%) KSMX (60%). IFR/MVFR ceilings possible at KOXR (40%) KCMA (40%) KSMO (70%) KLAX (80%) KLGB (100%) KBUR (70%) KVNY (60%).
For Sunday Night: LIFR/IFR ceilings possible at KSBP (10%) KSMX (30%). IFR/MVFR ceilings possible at KOXR (10%) KCMA (10%) KSMO (30%) KLAX (50%) KLGB (60%) KBUR (40%) KVNY (30%).
Moderate confidence in TAF timing (+/- 3 hours).
KLAX, 80% chance of BKN012-020 this morning, and a 50% chance tonight into Monday. Moderate confidence that any east winds will stay under 8 knots.
KBUR, 60% chance of BKN0006-012 this morning, and a 40% chance Sunday night into Monday.
13/1203 AM.
Moderate confidence in current suite of Small Craft Advisories (SCA) and Gale Warnings (GLW). The Gale Force winds are slow to develop and may remain just under the 34 knot bar into Sunday morning, but will keep it going as confidence is high for stronger winds Sunday night. SCA winds will reach into the nearshore waters along the Central coast and western Santa Barbara Channel through the weekend. These winds will generate a building short- period fresh swell over all waters, peaking in the afternoon & evening hours.
Ca, Wind Advisory in effect until 6 AM PDT Monday for zones 349-351-352. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect from noon today to 9 PM PDT this evening for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Monday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect until 6 AM PDT Monday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
