30/1226 PM.
Warming and drying through most of next week. June Gloom clouds will be prevalent over coastal areas through next week, but will be limited Sunday and possibly Monday, leading to the warmest two days. Mountains and interior areas will likely see the warmest conditions around Wednesday to Thursday of next week. Locally gusty north winds likely through Monday morning, then increasing onshore through the week.
(tdy-Tue), 30/1243 PM.
The well advertised warm and dry period is underway and 24 hour trends show up to 15 degrees of warming so far, warmest over interior mountains and valleys. Additional 5-10 degrees of warming expected for tomorrow as high pressure strengthens and offshore winds limit marine influences at the coasts and coastal valleys. An uptick in onshore flow will allow for temperatures to decrease slightly on the coastal side of the mountains Monday and Tuesday while interior areas will continue to warm up.
Wind advisories have been issued for Southwest Santa Barbara County and the I-5 Corridor from this afternoon through Sunday morning, where northwest to north winds are expected to be 20-30 mph with gusts to 50 mph. Winds 15-25 mph with gusts to 40 mph will be common elsewhere across interior mountains and foothills tonight. Fairly light northeast winds will be common Sunday morning, especially over interior mountains and foothills of LA and Ventura Counties. North winds will again become prevalent Sunday night into Monday, but a notch weaker. Thus, wind advisories are not anticipated. Onshore flow is expected to increase to the north and south Monday through Tuesday.
Low clouds have filled in much of the coasts and valleys north of Point Conception. South of Point Conception, small pockets of marine layer clouds have formed, but skies remain clear for most of the area. Expected marine layer clouds to burn off later today, then low confidence in the exact return and extent of marine layer clouds tonight. More expansive coverage anticipated into Tuesday.
(Wed-Sat), 30/1242 PM.
High pressure aloft will continue to steadily climb through Wednesday and Thursday, before slowly lowering into the weekend. While some uncertainty exists in the exact temperatures, confidence is high that Wednesday and Thursday will be the warmest days over the interior, as temperatures will likely top out between 90 and 100 degrees. On the coastal side of the mountains temperatures will remain warm-ish but look to drop some from the Monday peak as we head towards the end of the week thanks to the strengthening onshore flow. The magnitude of that cooling will depend on the extent of the marine layer coverage. But this trend also looks locked in as all the ensembles show strengthening onshore pressure gradients to the north and east through the week. Heat Advisories and Warnings through the period remain unlikely. Gusty onshore winds should be expected over the interior sections through the end of the week.
30/1857z.
At 1759Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor inversion.
Low to moderate confidence in Coastal and valley TAFs, high confidence in desert TAFs.
Moderate confidence in timing of flight cat changes (plus or minus 3 hours). There is a 30% chance of IFR/LIFR conds at KPRB and KSBP overnight into Sunday morning, and a 40% of VFR conditions through the period at KSMX. There is a 30% chance of IFR-MVFR conds at KOXR, KCMA, KBUR, and KVNY overnight into Sunday morning, and a 20% chance of VFR conds through the period at KSMO, KLAX, and KLGB.
Low-end LLWS possible at KSBA 06-10Z Sunday.
KLAX, Moderate confidence in TAFs. There is a 20% chance of VFR conds through the period. High confidence that any east winds will stay under 8 knots.
KBUR, Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 30% chance of BKN008-12 11Z-16Z Sunday.
30/841 AM.
For the Outer Waters from the Central Coast to San Nicolas Island, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. High confidence in a combination of at least Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas through at least most of next week. There is a 60% chance of low-end Gale Force winds tonight south of Point Sal (Gale Warning issued), and a 30% chance to the north. There is a 40% chance of Gale force winds returning on Wednesday.
For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast, with daily afternoon and evening SCAs through Sunday. For Monday through Wednesday, there is a 40-50% chance of SCA level winds in the afternoon and evening hours.
For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. There is a 60% chance of SCA winds over the western half of the Santa Barbara channel tonight, with lower chances to follow through early next week. The remaining areas will see local winds near SCA in the afternoon hours, but likely not expansive enough to warrant an SCA.
All waters will see choppy seas due to the winds in the region, especially in the afternoon and overnight hours.
Ca, High Surf Advisory in effect until 10 PM PDT Sunday for zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect from 4 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Sunday for zones 349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM PDT Sunday for zone 378. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Sunday for zones 645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 AM PDT Monday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 6 PM PDT this evening for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM PDT Sunday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
