15/235 AM.
Seasonal June conditions will continue through the first half of this week as at least weak to moderate onshore flow continues, with night through morning low clouds and fog across most coastal areas. Near to slightly above normal temperatures will continue through Tuesday, with minor afternoon heat impacts, before cooling down in the second half of the week.
(tdy-Wed), 15/503 AM.
***Update***
Updated forecast to show low clouds and fog receding to the LA County Coast and may dissipate or push offshore between 6-8 am. Otherwise forecast is tracking well.
***From previous discussion***
Slight offshore trends and enhanced ridging aloft will bring a few degrees of warming today into Tuesday with the potential for moderate heat impacts to expand for warmer coastal valleys to the interior. Although above normal temperatures will increase heat stress during the day for those interior areas, good cooling trends in the evening and especially overnight should limit overall impacts and therefore the need for heat products. However, those sensitive to the heat may want to consider avoiding peak heat of the day and hydrate often. The marine layer will continue to protect coastal areas from the heat with highs only in the 70s to near 80 including inland coastal sections of LA County with limited day-to-day changes through Wednesday.
Through Tuesday ridging and offshore trends will likely lead to earlier burn off of low clouds and fog, except for possibly some west facing beaches of Los Angeles and Ventura County. Low clouds will struggle to penetrate into coastal valleys and fog will may become more common where low clouds do occur albeit with limited concern for dense fog given continued onshore flow and only weak ridging/height rises aloft.
A slow-developing trough offshore over the East Pacific begin building into the region by Wednesday, will initiate moderate cooling trends away from the coast, reducing heat risk even to warmer interior areas. Night-to-morning low clouds may begin to expand further into the coastal valleys by Wednesday morning.
(Thu-Sun), 15/500 AM.
A slow-developing trough over the East Pacific will become more organized and should build into the region by the end of the week, and carry a cooling trend into next weekend, with the most notable cooling away from the coast. This will significantly reduce heat risk even to warmer interior areas and latest guidance has afternoon high temperatures up to 5-10 degrees below normal. Night to morning low clouds will likely push further into the coastal valleys and possibly some lower foothills as southwest strengthens. There will also be increased odds for some drizzle within the marine layer each morning.
The associated onshore push will support gusty onshore to northwest winds nearing advisory levels for the interior, possibly extending to southwest Santa Barbara. There may be a period of enhanced fire weather concern on one or both of those transition days (Wed-Fri) for far interior areas and maybe especially at high elevations, which would be situated above the expanding marine layer influence.
Looking further out, there's a 50-60 percent chance of above normal temperatures returning and perhaps becoming more widespread during the early-to-middle part of next week as a ridge potentially builds into the region from the east.
15/1208z.
At 08Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 800 ft deep. The top of the inversion was near 2900 ft with a temperature of 23 C.
High confidence in KBUR KVNY KPMD & KWJF.
Low to moderate confidence in remaining TAFs. Timing of CIG/VSBY restrictions may be off 3 hours and flight minimums by one category. There is a 10-20 percent chance of brief to no return to VFR for KOXR KSBA.
KLAX, Low confidence in TAF. There is a 80 percent chance that VFR conds return between 14-16Z. No significant east wind component expected.
KBUR, High confidence in TAF.
13/821 PM.
Moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Conditions are generally expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels across the coastal waters through the forecast period.
Local gusts could reach 21 kts during the afternoon and evening timeframe across the western Santa Barbara Channel, Santa Monica Basin, and nearshore Los Angeles Harbor into the San Pedro Channel.
Patchy dense fog with visibility 1 NM or less is possible each night to morning through at least Monday.
14/839 PM.
A couple of long period southerly swells (14 seconds and 18 seconds) will continue to affect the coastal waters through at least Monday. A Beach Hazard Statement is in effect through Monday evening due to elevated surf of 3 to 6 feet on south-facing beaches of Ventura County Beaches, Malibu Coast, Los Angeles County Beaches, and portions of the Southern Santa Barbara County Beaches.
Evening tides of 7.5 to 7.9 ft are predicted through Tuesday. The combination of the unusually high tides with elevated surf could result in minor to locally moderate coastal flooding along south exposed coasts, especially near Malibu and Long Beach. In addition, there is along potential for sneaker waves.
Even as tides lower, another couple of southerly swells will move into the waters, which could extend concerns into Wednesday night or Thursday. Stay tuned for updates and refer to CFWLOX for additional details.
Ca, Beach Hazards Statement in effect through late Wednesday night for zones 349-350-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). Coastal Flood Advisory in effect until 2 AM PDT Tuesday for zone 362. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ, NONE.
