21/745 PM.
Minimal changes expected through the weekend with above normal temperatures. Patchy night and morning low clouds and fog will be confined to coastal areas. Additional warming is possible during the middle of next week as high pressure builds in from the southeast.
(Fri-Mon), 21/850 PM.
***UPDATE***
Few changes are expected through the weekend, with temperatures above normal by several degrees each day. Combined with warm overnight lows and some monsoonal moisture at mid to upper levels, conditions will continue to feel uncomfortably warm. Breezy winds are expected at times, with northerly Sundowner winds along the Santa Barbara Southwest coast and foothills, and gusty onshore winds over interior sections.
Today's highs were between 95 to 105 across the valleys and interior, with 70s to 80s along the coast. The inland coastal areas warmed compared to yesterday, in the 80s to mid 90s. Downtown LA had a daily record high of 96 degrees, previously set in 1891. Tomorrow expect fairly similar highs, with differences of plus or minus a couple of degrees likely. While the hottest areas are not quite widespread enough to warrant a Heat Advisory, some locations (Woodland Hills, for example) will reach the criteria at around 105 degrees. Caution is still advised for those working or recreating outdoors during the daytime.
Onshore (Southwest) winds are gusting around 20 to 30 mph over the far interior, including Antelope Valley. Along the SBA southwest coast, gusts are 25 to 35 mph. The peak gusts may increase close to 40 mph over the next few hours before decreasing later this evening.
As for the monsoonal moisture flowing over the area from the southeast, the NAM12 shows the tap drying up Saturday afternoon so the shower chances are now below 10 percent and only for the eastern LA County mountains.
(Tue-Fri), 21/156 PM.
High pressure is expected to build back into California starting next Tuesday while at the same time pressure gradients from the north and east weaken. With high temperatures already on the verge of advisories and warnings through early next week, the next burst of heat Tuesday and beyond has at least a 40-60% chance pushing that over the edge to at least heat advisory levels and possibly into warning level, particularly inland areas. How widespread the heat hazards are will be largely be determined by the pressure gradients. If the gradients trend towards the 75th percentile or higher, which roughly would be around -3mb LAX-DAG and -4mb LAX-BFL, temperatures would on the higher side with numerous excessive heat warnings likely. If gradients have less of an offshore component per the latest GFS then temperatures will still be hot but at least a few degrees cooler. The latter scenario being the most likely outcome.
At this time not seeing any big subtropical push next week, though there is minor peak in PW's on Tuesday and early Wednesday at around 1.2".
22/0427z.
At 0341Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 700 feet deep. The top of the inversion was at 2000 feet with a temperature of 30 C.
High confidence in VFR TAF for sites: KPRB, KSBA, KVNY, KBUR, KPMD, KWJF.
Low to moderate confidence in the coastal TAFs. The best chance of low clouds is along the Central Coast, with LIFR conds expected and a chance of VLIFR at KSMX. Further south there is a 20% chance of low clouds for the Ventura and LA Coastal sites. For all coastal sites, the timing of category changes could be off by +/- 2 hours.
KLAX, Moderate confidence in the 06Z TAF. There is a 20% chance of IFR conds between 13Z to 16Z. If CIGs occur, the timing could be off by 2 hours. No significant east wind component is expected.
KBUR, High confidence in VFR TAF.
21/755 PM.
High risk of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) conditions continuing over the outer waters from the Central Coast to San Nicolas Island through Saturday night, lowering to moderate for Sunday and Monday. There is a moderate risk for the nearshore Central Coast waters each afternoon and evening through Saturday, lowering for Sunday and Monday. Elsewhere, the risk for SCA is low, with seasonal winds likely. Chances for SCA conditions will likely increase again including some nearshore waters by Wednesday.
Ca, NONE. PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect until 2 AM PDT Saturday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from noon Saturday to 2 AM PDT Sunday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 11 PM PDT Sunday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 6 AM PDT Monday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
