06/1041 PM.
Mostly clear skies, dry conditions, and a general warming trend with periods of offshore winds will continue through the weekend. The warmest and windiest conditions are likely today through Sunday. Above normal temperatures will continue into early next week.
(tdy-Mon), 07/121 AM.
Weak to moderate Santa Ana winds will peak this morning. A trough digging into Baja California from the northeast will bring offshore surface pressure gradients and upper level wind support. All these components will peak this morning, and gusty winds are expected for the wind prone corridor of LA and Ventura Counties. A Wind Advisory has been issued from 2 AM to 2 PM today, and a Red Flag Warning is in effect from 2 AM to 6 PM today. Sunday into next week, offshore winds will continue but trend weaker each day. At this point no hazard products for wind or fire weather are anticipated beyond today.
The wind pattern will bring warm, dry, and sunny conditions to the area. Highs will peak over the weekend, with mid 80s to around 90 degrees common for coasts and valleys. Areas of moderate HeatRisk will occur through at least Sunday, focused over the beaches and coastal plains. Monday temperatures will cool a couple degrees, as winds weaken and the airmass aloft cools slightly. Temperatures will still remain quite a bit above normal, however, into next week. Due to the very dry conditions, overnight temperatures in wind- sheltered and interior areas will fall into the 30s and 40s each night. Conversely, windy locations and areas near the coast will see warmer lows, with some foothill and valley locations remaining in the upper 60s overnight.
(Tue-Fri), 06/621 PM.
Tuesday through Wednesday temperatures will remain warm, though slightly cooler than the peak of the heat forecasted for this weekend. Expect around 5 to 10 degrees above normal mid-week, with widespread highs in the 80s. Weak offshore flow will persist through Wednesday, thus marine layers clouds will be minimal and most likely non- existent.
Starting Thursday, onshore flow will increase and 500 mb heights are favored to plummet as a trough approaches the region. Temperatures are expected to fall to near normal by Friday with widespread highs in the the 70s. As for rain, ensembles indicate a potential storm system sometime between next Friday and the following Tuesday (Nov 13-17th), or possibly even beyond that. There is high uncertainty and details remain very fuzzy to say the least. Possible outcomes range all the way from minimal rain up to a significant storm system with periods of heavy rain. As this potential storm is still very far in the future, please keep up to date with the forecast for the latest updates.
07/1339z.
At 1320Z at KLAX, there was a sfc-based inversion with a top at 700 feet and a temperature of 23 degrees Celsius.
High confidence in TAFs. Offshore winds will generate light to moderate LLWS/turbulence across the mountains and foothills in LA/Ventura into this afternoon.
KLAX, High confidence in VFR TAF. Good confidence in any east wind component remaining below 6 kt.
KBUR, High confidence in VFR TAF. Light to moderate LLWS possible overnight into this morning. Low chance for gusty NE winds to surface tonight, but possible through 18Z.
07/124 AM.
For the Outer Waters, high confidence in current forecast. Tonight through Tuesday, a combination of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas will continue. Conditions may briefly drop below advisory levels on Sunday. On Wednesday, both winds and seas are likely to drop below SCA levels.
For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Through Sunday, there is a 30-50% chance of a combination of SCA level winds and seas. For Monday through Tuesday, there is a 60-80% chance of SCA level seas and a 40-50% chance of SCA level winds. On Wednesday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels.
For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate confidence in current forecast. For the nearshore waters from Point Mugu to Santa Monica, there is a 60-80% chance of SCA level northeast winds this morning, and a 30-40% chance on Sunday. Elsewhere across the southern Inner Waters, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels through Wednesday.
07/121 AM.
High tides will build each morning and peak Sunday and Monday at 7.2 to 7.6 feet (MLLW). Meanwhile, a west to northwest swell will slowly build into the area, peaking on Monday. This combination of high tides and high surf will bring hazardous swimming conditions, dangerous conditions on rock jetties, and a risk for moderate coastal flooding. If you are in the coastal areas, listen to advice from your local officials.
With the daily high tides changing only a little through Tuesday, the risk for coastal flooding will peak when the surf peaks on Monday. This coastal flooding event will differ in several ways from the past episodes this year. First, while tides will be high, they will not be nearly as high as the record breaking tides from last week. This means that the impacts to harbor areas and Naples Island will generally be minor compared to last week. Shallow flooding should be expected, especially for low-lying walkways, but of a lesser degree less in severity and coverage. Second, for the beach-side coastal areas, the swell is from the west to northwest and not from the south, which characterized the coastal flooding episodes of September and early October. This means that areas hit hard in those events, like Long Beach and Malibu, are less at risk with this upcoming event. For west-facing shores however, the risk is much higher than events in the recent past. Areas like Oceano and Cayucos on the Central Coast, and Ventura on the southern coasts, have elevated risks of moderate coastal flooding. Moderate coastal flooding impacts include things like flooded sandy beach areas, moderate beach erosion, as well as shallow flooding of beach parking lots and bike paths. Isolated damage is unlikely but cannot be ruled out especially considering the extent of beach erosion we have already seen - which limits the natural protective buffer between the ocean and coastal infrastructure.
For the Central Coast, a High Surf Advisory and Coastal Flood Advisory will be in effect through Monday, since the peak of the surf is earlier compared to other areas. For all other coasts, a Beach Hazards Statement will be in effect through Tuesday, with a key note that some areas (especially Ventura County) may need to be upgraded to a Coastal Flood and/or High Surf Advisory around Monday when the surf peaks.
Ca, Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Tuesday morning for zones 87-349-350-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect until 2 PM PST this afternoon for zones 88-355-358-362-369>371-374-375-379. (See LAXNPWLOX). Coastal Flood Advisory in effect until 10 PM PST Monday for zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX). High Surf Advisory in effect until 10 PM PST Monday for zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX). Red Flag Warning in effect until 6 PM PST this evening for zones 288-369-370-375-379. (See LAXRFWLOX). PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PST this afternoon for zone 655. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Tuesday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
