29/753 PM.
A cooling trend will begin on Monday, with near normal temperatures expected Tuesday through Thursday. Gusty onshore winds will affect the area at times, along with chances of light rain. Weak to moderate offshore winds with warming and drying will follow Friday and Saturday.
(tdy-Wed), 30/137 AM.
Patchy dense fog has developed to some coastal areas early this morning. However, high clouds will rapidly overspread much of the area through mid morning and the Santa Barbara to San Diego gradient as well as recent satellite indicate the potential for a late eddy surge - both possibly decreasing dense fog risk as we approach morning rush hour, especially for Los Angeles and Ventura Counties.
Quite a significant cool down is on tap for today as the upper level ridge flattens out and onshore flow becomes more pronounced region wide. High clouds will also move over the region, limiting some of the warming effects of the Sun. Expecting mostly 60s and 70s for tomorrow's highs, but the warmest valley areas (including San Fernando and southern Salinas valleys) are likely to reach the low 80s. Further cooling will bring widespread high temperatures in the 60s and 70s Tuesday and Wednesday to the region thanks to falling 500 mb heights as the influence of the upper level trough moving through the West Coast sags far enough south. Onshore flow and a cloudy skies will help further cool the region, providing at least a few days of relief from the seemingly endless heat that's placed its grips across Southwest California for the last few weeks.
The aforementioned onshore flow will result in gusty westerly winds, especially across the Antelope Valley (+ foothills) and interior LA County Mountains. Winds appear to remain below advisory levels, but Wednesday presents the best chance (20-30%) for advisory level gusts across the already noted interior LA County areas.
A once surefire rainy and unsettled period has trended lighter and less certain over the last several days. There is still a slight chance to a chance of rain from late Tuesday through Thursday morning, highest north of Point Conception. If rain does fall, confidence is high that any totals will be very light. Current rain amounts are favored to be 0.10 inches or less.
(Thu-Sun), 29/826 PM.
Relatively unsettled weather compared to recent times is expected to continue through Thursday, although rain chances are 10% or less. The continual troughing will keep temperatures on Thursday similar to what we will see Tuesday and Wednesday. The trough will then rapidly be shoved east, and weak ridging will become the main upper feature through at least Saturday, potentially into Sunday.
The ridge will help create some overall warming, but there still exists quite a bit of uncertainty late this week. This stems from the potential for offshore influences Friday and Saturday, and more importantly the magnitude of this offshore flow. The EC and its ensembles favors a rapid swing to a light to moderate offshore event from the north and east Friday and Saturday, whereas the GFS and its ensembles favor weak diurnal flow. This will have a significant impact on the temperatures during the latter part of the extended period, so stayed tuned for more details.
Regardless of which scenario plays out, we can expect this brief "cool" period to be replaced by warmer tempreatures by the end of the week.
30/1141z.
At 07Z over KLAX, the marine layer was 600 ft deep. The top of the inversion was at 2200 feet with a temperature of 23 C.
High confidence in VFR TAFs for KPRB, KPMD, KWJF.
Low confidence in remaining TAFs. Flight category changes may be off by 2-3 hours and 1 flight category.
20 percent chance -DZ all coastal terminals KBUR, KVNY and KPRB after 06Z.
KLAX, Moderate confidence in TAF. Improvement to IFR or higher likely between 13-16Z. No significant east wind component expected.
KBUR, High confidence in VFR TAF through 06Z, low confidence after with a 40 percent chance that VFR conds prevail.
29/800 PM.
High confidence in winds and seas staying under Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels through at least Monday, and likely through Wednesday morning across the waters. A weak frontal system will briefly shift winds over the northern waters to the southwest on Tuesday, with light showers at times through Thursday.
There is a growing risk of widespread strong SCA or low-end Gale Force winds over most coastal waters (including nearshore and the Santa Barbara Channel) Wednesday night through Friday.
A moderate risk of dense fog with visibility under one nautical mile will continue through Monday evening (focused in the evening to morning hours).
Ca, NONE. PZ, NONE.
