08/231 AM.
Benign weather will continue through the week with only a chance of morning low clouds and fog along the Los Angeles coast this morning. A warming trend will continue this week with well above normal temperatures through next Friday, peaking Tuesday through Thursday. Offshore flow will produce local canyon winds in the mornings.
(tdy-Wed), 08/232 AM.
Srn CA will sit under the east side of east pac ridge through the short term with hgts near 584 dam (13 dam higher than normal). At the sfc there will be offshore flow form both the N and S. The offshore will be near 6 mb offshore from the N and near 3 mb from the E. There is no upper level support so while there will be gusty canyon winds each morning they will be mostly under advisory levels. The one exception will be the Santa Lucia range in SLO county where advisory level winds will occur this morning and Tuesday morning. The winds will likely reach advisory levels across coastal SLO county below the favored passes and canyons.
Some low clouds are likely this morning across the nearshore areas from Long Beach to KLAX. Dense fog will likely accompany any low clouds that do form. Skies, otherwise, will be mostly clear through short term period with the upper high and offshore flow preventing any cloudiness.
Max temps will be the main issue for the three day period (and Thu and Fri as well). Offshore flow, hier than normal hgts and sunny skies will all combine to bring most areas 3 to 6 degrees of warming today, 2 to 4 degrees on Tue and 1 to 3 degrees on Wednesday. Today there will be mostly 70s on the csts and upper 70s to mid 80s in the vlys. By Wednesday expect mid 70s to lower 80s across the csts and 80s in the vlys. While these max temps are impressively 10 to 15 locally 18 degrees above normal they are not at record levels. Low temps will be mixed bag with the dry air, clear skies and long nights combining to bring below normal lows to wind sheltered areas. Windier areas, however, will see slightly above normal overnight lows.
(Thu-Sun), 08/231 AM.
Medium range mdls and ensembles have the same general idea about the xtnd fcst and their differences really should not affect the weather's outcome much at all.
The ridge will begin to weaken on Thu and this trend will continue into Fri. More importantly for the forecast for the csts and vlys the offshore flow will weaken each day and, in fact, will turn onshore to the east on Friday. Look for two days of slight cooling across the csts/vlys (1 to 3 degrees each day).
The anticyclonic flow turns cyclonic on Saturday. There will be onshore flow to the east through the day and only weak offshore flow from the north. This should bring a return of the coastal marine layer cloud pattern. It will also bring a noticeable cool down or 3 to 6 degrees. The cooling trend is forecast to continue Sunday with another 3 to 5 degrees of cooling across the board. Despite this cooling max temps will remain above normal esp away from the coasts.
08/1025z.
Around 0850Z, there was no marine layer depth at KLAX. There was a surface-based inversion up to around 2200 feet with a temperature near 21 degrees Celsius.
High confidence in the current forecast for coastal terminals north of Point Conception, and valley and desert terminals south of Point Conception. Moderate confidence in the current forecast for coastal terminals south of Point Conception and KPRB. There is a moderate chance of VLIFR to LIFR conditions at coastal terminals south of Point Conception and KPRB through 16Z. There is a moderate chance of VLIFR to LIFR conditions at KPRB after 10Z Tuesday.
KLAX, There is a 40 percent chance of VLIFR to LIFR conditions through 16Z. Any easterly winds will remain less than 7 knots.
KBUR, VFR conditions are expected through the period. No wind impacts are expected at this time.
08/225 AM.
Moderate confidence in the current forecast. Slightly higher confidence exists in the seas forecast relative to winds.
For the waters southwest through northwest of the Channel Islands beyond 10 NM offshore of the Central Coast, there is a high to likely (40 to 60 percent) chance of low-end Small Craft Advisory (SCA) conditions through early Wednesday, then there is a moderate-to-high (30 to 50 percent) chance for the remainder of the week. The highest chances will be across the western portions during the afternoon and evening hours.
Inside the southern California bight and for the nearshore waters along the Central Coast out to 10 NM offshore, there is a 40 to 60 percent chance of northeast SCA level wind gusts from Ventura to Santa Monica and a 50 to 70 percent chance of northeast SCA winds from near Pismo Beach to Point Piedras Blancas each night and morning through Tuesday. There is a low-to-moderate (20 to 40 percent) chance for both areas for Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning. Otherwise, winds and seas should remain below SCA levels.
There is a moderate chance of dense fog over the coastal waters this morning, highest for the western portion beyond 30 NM offshore of the Central Coast.
Ca, Wind Advisory remains in effect until 10 AM PST this morning for zones 340-341. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory remains in effect until 10 AM PST Tuesday for zone 342. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect until 11 AM PST Tuesday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Wednesday for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
