14/346 AM.
Seasonal June conditions will continue through the week as at least weak to moderate onshore flow continues, with night through morning low clouds and fog across most coastal areas. Near to slightly above normal temperatures will continue through early next week, with minor afternoon heat impacts, before cooling down during the middle of the week.
(tdy-Tue), 14/353 AM.
Today is expected to look a lot like yesterday, although a deeper marine layer along the Central Coast should limit dense fog coverage this morning. One difference is the push of low clouds seen as satellite into the Salinas Valley early this morning that will make a run for Paso Robles. Near normal temperatures (70s-80) are anticipated near the coast with temperatures 5-10 degrees above normal (80s-100) across interior mountains and valleys. Typically breezy afternoon to evening onshore winds are expected peaking in strength through favored corridors.
Slight offshore trends and enhanced ridging aloft will bring a few degrees of warming into Monday and Tuesday with the potential for moderate heat impacts to expand for warmer coastal valleys and the interior. Although above normal temperatures will increase heat stress during the day for those interior areas, good cooling trends in the evening and especially overnight should limit overall impacts and therefore the need for heat products. However, those sensitive to the heat may want to consider avoiding peak heat of the day and hydrate often.
The marine layer and associated night-to-morning low clouds may be squashed to mainly coastal areas for Monday and Tuesday with limited to no valley penetration, contributing to the aforementioned warming trends most notably for coastal valleys. Fog may become more widespread within the marine layer albeit with limited concern for dense fog given continued onshore flow and only weak ridging aloft.
(Wed-Sat), 14/346 AM.
A slow-developing trough will likely build into region Wednesday or Thursday and bring moderate cooling trends away from the coast, drastically reducing heat risk even to warmer interior areas. Night to morning low clouds will likely continue, but expand well into the coastal valleys and possibly some lower foothills.
The associated onshore push will support gusty onshore to northwest winds nearing advisory levels for the interior, possibly extending to southwest Santa Barbara. There may be a period of enhanced fire weather concern on one or both of those transition days (Wed/Thu) for far interior areas and maybe especially at high elevations, which would be situated above the expanding marine layer influence.
Looking further out, there's a 50-60 percent chance of above normal temperatures returning and perhaps becoming more widespread during the early to middle part of next week as a ridge potentially builds into the region.
14/1220z.
At 07Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1200 ft deep. The top of the inversion was near 2500 ft with a temperature of 23 C.
High confidence in VFR for KPMD, & KWJF. As well as for KBUR & KVNY through at least 06Z.
Low to moderate confidence in remaining TAFs. Timing of CIG/VSBY restrictions may be off 2-3 hours and flight cat by one category. There is a 20-30 percent chance that VFR conds return as early as 14Z for KLAX and KSMO. There is a 40 percent chance that VFR conds prevail through at least 06Z for KLGB.
KLAX, Low confidence in TAF. There is a 20 percent chance that VFR conds return as early as 14Z. No significant east wind component expected.
KBUR, Moderate confidence in TAF. High confidence in VFR conditions through 14/08Z. 30-40% chance of IFR/LIFR CIGs 12Z-16Z.
13/821 PM.
Moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Conditions are generally expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels across the coastal waters through the forecast period.
Local gusts could reach 21 kts during the afternoon and evening timeframe across the western Santa Barbara Channel, Santa Monica Basin, and nearshore Los Angeles Harbor into the San Pedro Channel.
Patchy dense fog with visibility 1 NM or less is possible each night to morning through at least Monday.
13/824 PM.
A couple of long period southerly swells (14 seconds and 18 seconds) will continue to affect the coastal waters through early next week. A Beach Hazard Statement is in effect through Monday evening due to elevated surf of 3 to 6 feet on south-facing beaches of Ventura County Beaches, Malibu Coast, Los Angeles County Beaches, and Southern Santa Barbara County Beaches.
Evening tides of 7.5 to 7.9 ft are predicted from Saturday through Tuesday. The combination of the unusually high tides with elevated surf could result in minor to locally moderate coastal flooding along south exposed coasts, along with potential for sneaker waves. Even as tides lower, another couple of southerly swells will move into the waters, which could extend concerns into Wednesday night or Thursday. Stay tuned for updates and refer to CFWLOX for additional details.
Ca, Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Monday evening for zones 349-350-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ, NONE.
