07/234 AM.
June Gloom morning low clouds across much of the region and below normal temperatures will continue through Monday. A warming trend will start Tuesday, becoming 5 to 10 degrees above normal Wednesday through next weekend, and marine layer clouds will not extend as far inland into the valleys but may still cling to the beaches.
(tdy-Tue), 07/822 AM.
***UPDATE***
The marine layer has risen to 3500 feet south of Pt Conception, pushing low clouds all the way to Acton and the lower mountain areas, including the Santa Ynez Mountains. Along the Central Coast the marine layer is still around 1000-1500 feet and already showing signs of clearing. For southern areas, low clouds will again take some time to clear and many beaches will again be cloudy well into the afternoon. So overall not much change from Saturday, but some additional cooling for inland areas, especially areas above 2500 feet elevation.
***From Previous Discussion***
The upper trough will continue to push through the region today, leading to lowering heights, and a further deepening of the marine layer, around 3500 feet for LA basin, and 1500-2000 feet across the Central Coast. The deepening marine layer will likely lead to areas of drizzle, especially for the LA county coastal slopes and foothills. In addition, there will likely be a delay in clearing for coast and valleys and lead to slightly cooler temperatures on Sunday.
By Monday high pressure starts to be build in from the west. the marine layer will begin to shrink with progressively earlier clearing times next week. Temperatures will be gradually warming as well, especially inland, but generally staying in the 80s in the valleys and 90s in the far interior.
Gusty sundowner winds are expected to make a return on Monday evening and Tuesday evening, with the strongest winds likely focused across western portions from Gaviota to San Marcos Pass. These areas have the potential to see gusts between 35 and 45 mph, with isolated gusts to 50 mph possible near Gaviota. As a result, wind advisories may be necessary as we draw closer.
(Wed-Sat), 07/341 AM.
Steady high pressure will setup over the region starting Wednesday. Relatively minimal pattern changes are expected through next weekend, and thus temperatures each day will generally be around 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Expect highs at the beaches and coastal plains in the mid 70s to mid 80s, and across the valleys mid 80s to mid 90s. The Antelope Valley will see the warmest temperatures, largely between 97-102 degrees.
There is some uncertainty in the temperatures along the Central Coast and Paso Robles on Wednesday and Thursday. There is around a 50 percent chance of morning offshore flow across the area. This would result in noticeably warmer temperatures, near 100 degrees at Paso Robles and upper 80s possible at San Luis Obispo. Additionally, there is also a 20 percent chance of morning offshore flow south of Point Conception Wednesday and Thursday. If this pans out, temperatures across much of Ventura and LA Counties may be warmer than forecast (highs in the 80s at the beaches and 90s across the coastal plains and valleys).
Morning marine layer clouds will continue each day, though may be minimal if offshore flow develops. Higher 500 mb heights will also reduce the inland extend of clouds, keeping them focused over the beaches and coastal plains.
07/1802z.
At 1630Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 3100 feet deep. The top of the inversion was 3500 feet with a maximum temperature of 14 C.
For the 18Z TAF package, high confidence in forecasts for KWJF, KPMD and KPRB. For all other sites, moderate confidence in forecasts due to uncertainties with behavior of the marine layer. Timing of flight category changes could be +/- 3 hours of current forecasts.
KLAX, Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. 10% chance of cigs lingering through early this afternoon. Otherwise, there is a 20% chance of cigs pushing back onshore after 22Z. No significant easterly wind component is expected.
KBUR, Moderate to high confidence in 18Z TAF. Timing of flight category changes could be +/- 2 hours of current forecast.
07/223 AM.
For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Through Thursday, high confidence in a combination of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas. There is a GALE WARNING over the two northern outer zones from late this afternoon through tonight. Monday and Tuesday, there is a 30-40% chance of Gale force winds during the same time period, with the best chances on Monday. SCA winds are likely to persist through Wednesday night, then weakening on Thursday.
For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, high confidence in current forecast. Today through Wednesday, SCA level wind are expected, mainly in the afternoon and evening hours, with seas near or above SCA levels. On Thursday, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels.
For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. For a majority of the southern Inner Waters, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels through Thursday. The only exception will be the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel, where there is a 40-60% chance of SCA level winds today through Tuesday, mainly in the late afternoon and evening hours.
Ca, NONE. PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday for zones 645-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
