30/757 PM.
Warm and dry conditions can be expected through most of next week. There will be some coastal low clouds and fog, but otherwise, skies will remain mostly clear. There will be gusty north winds through Sunday night and gusty onshore winds through most of next week.
(Sat-Tue), 30/712 PM.
Latest satellite and surface observations indicate clear skies across the district this evening. Current sounding data indicates an inversion, based around 900 feet. As for winds, northerly winds, gusting 40-45 MPH, are observed across the western Santa Ynez Range with gusts 25-40 mph across the I-5 Corridor and Antelope Valley.
For the immediate short term, main focus will be the winds. Through the evening, will anticipate northerly winds to increase across the western Santa Ynez Range and I-5 Corridor as surface gradients becoming increasingly offshore. So, current WIND ADVISORIES look to be on track for these areas through tonight. Otherwise, the overnight period looks to be rather benign. There is a chance of some stratus/fog overnight around the Santa Maria and Lompoc area as well as the LA coast, but confidence in areal coverage is low. Other than any stratus, skies should remain clear.
For Sunday through Tuesday, models remain on the same synoptic track. At upper levels, a trough will linger over the area, although H5 heights gradually increase from day-to-day. As the surface, moderate onshore gradients will persist to the east with gradually decreasing northerly offshore gradients. The end result will be rather benign weather. The gusty northerly winds will gradually diminish in strength over the next couple of days while moderate onshore winds continue in the afternoon/evening hours. As for clouds, will expect a gradual increase in areal coverage of stratus/fog during the night and morning, due to persistent eddy circulations over the Bight. Other than the stratus, skies will remain mostly clear through Tuesday. As for temperatures, Sunday will be warmer (5-10 degrees above normal) for all areas. On Monday and Tuesday, coastal and valley areas will exhibit a gradual cooling trend (due to increased marine influence) while inland areas hover around persistence.
(Wed-Sat), 30/1242 PM.
High pressure aloft will continue to steadily climb through Wednesday and Thursday, before slowly lowering into the weekend. While some uncertainty exists in the exact temperatures, confidence is high that Wednesday and Thursday will be the warmest days over the interior, as temperatures will likely top out between 90 and 100 degrees. On the coastal side of the mountains temperatures will remain warm-ish but look to drop some from the Monday peak as we head towards the end of the week thanks to the strengthening onshore flow. The magnitude of that cooling will depend on the extent of the marine layer coverage. But this trend also looks locked in as all the ensembles show strengthening onshore pressure gradients to the north and east through the week. Heat Advisories and Warnings through the period remain unlikely. Gusty onshore winds should be expected over the interior sections through the end of the week.
31/0036z.
At 1759Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor inversion.
Low to moderate confidence in Coastal and valley TAFs, lowest for the coasts, and high confidence in desert TAFs.
Moderate confidence in timing of flight cat changes (plus or minus 3 hours). There is a 20-30% chance of IFR/LIFR conds at KPRB and KSBP overnight into Sunday morning, and a 40% of VFR conditions through the period at KSMX. There is a 30% chance of IFR-MVFR conds at KOXR, KCMA, KBUR, and KVNY overnight into Sunday morning with the lower chances at KBUR and KVNY. There is a 20% chance of VFR conds through the period at KSMO, KLAX, and KLGB.
Low-end LLWS possible at KSBA 06-10Z Sunday.
KLAX, Moderate confidence in the 00Z TAF. There is a 20% chance of VFR conds through the period. High confidence that any east winds will stay under 8 knots.
KBUR, Moderate confidence in the 00Z TAF. There is a 20-30% chance of BKN008-12 11Z-16Z Sunday.
30/755 PM.
For the Outer Waters from the Central Coast to San Nicolas Island, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. High confidence in a combination of at least Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas through at least most of the coming week. Moderate confidence in GALES forecast for all of the outer waters through late tonight. This will be followed by SCA winds through mid morning Monday. SCA winds are likely to return Tuesday through Thursday, with a 40% chance of Gale force winds Wednesday night.
For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Winds across the outer portions have gusts almost to GALE force. Otherwise, daily afternoon and evening SCAs through Sunday. Winds will increase to SCA levels Tuesday night through Thursday night, with a 30% chance of Gales Wednesday night.
For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. There is a 60% chance of SCA winds over the western half of the Santa Barbara channel tonight, and again Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. There will be another chance of SCA winds Wednesday night.
All waters will see choppy seas due to the winds in the region, especially in the afternoon and overnight hours.
Ca, High Surf Advisory in effect until 10 PM PDT Sunday for zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Sunday for zones 349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect until 9 AM PDT Sunday for zone 378. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Sunday for zones 645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 2 PM to 9 PM PDT Sunday for zones 645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Sunday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 AM Sunday to 9 AM PDT Monday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
