28/146 PM.
Mostly clear skies are expected through Tuesday with a warming trend. Gusty Santa Ana winds peak on Monday with strong and gusty winds likely. The winds will not be as strong Tuesday. Clouds will increase Wednesday with a chance of rain through Saturday.
(tdy-Wed), 28/212 PM.
A few days of dry weather coming up but with a strong Santa Ana wind event developing today across portions of LA/Ventura Counties that will continue through at least Tuesday. The strongest period of wind will be later tonight through early Monday afternoon when offshore pressure gradients top out between 6 and 8mb and winds aloft peak close to 60 mph. As usual most of the LA Basin, San Gabriel Valley, and Antelope Valley will see little to no wind during this period, but elsewhere in LA County and most of Ventura County, along with the adjacent coastal waters out to the Channel Islands will see gusts between 30 and 50 mph with gusts in the mountains up to 60-70 mph. This will create a higher than normal risk of falling trees due to the recent rains that have saturated the ground.
Santa Ana winds will continue into Tuesday with with less support aloft and gradients starting to trend onshore winds are expected to be as much as 50% lighter than Monday.
Santa Ana winds are also known for creating very warm temperatures due to the downsloping effects off the mountains but in this case there is quite a bit of cold air advection that will likely minimize the warming, especially inland. Coastal areas will likely be the warmest, but probably only topping out in the lower or possibly mid 70s. Most valleys and inland areas will be in the 60s at most. Cold advection will be weakening Tue so there should be at least a few degrees of warming inland.
Starting on Wednesday moisture from off the coast of Mexico will be moving into the area and rain chances will return by Wednesday evening, if not sooner. The latest NAM is quite a bit faster with the moisture advection, suggesting rain beginning as early as Wednesday morning, while most of the ensembles hold off until Wednesday afternoon or evening. In any case, it does look like 2026 will start off wet across all of southern California.
(Thu-Sun), 28/223 PM.
Looks like at least 2-3 days of off and on rain showers to start the New Year, the heaviest of which being New Years Day and then again Friday night into Saturday when the upper low from the northwest merges with the moisture advection from the south. In between those times rain rates appear to be on the lighter side, mostly under a quarter inch per hour, and not raining all the time. Heavier rain expected on at the beginning and end of the event, though there is still a lot of uncertainty in the models with timing and rates. For the time being the forecast is calling for 1-3" of rain across coast and valleys and 2-5" in the mountains. Snow levels will be very high initially, well over 7000 feet but then lowering to around 7000 feet at the back end of the event later Saturday.
28/1548z.
At 1600Z at KLAX, there was a surface-based inversion. The top of the inversion was 1600 feet with a temperature of 13 degrees Celsius.
Overall, high confidence in 18Z TAF package as CAVU conditions are expected at all sites. Through the period, offshore winds will increase across the area, so there could be LGT-MDT turbulence across the mountains and foothills overnight and Monday morning.
KLAX, High confidence in 18Z TAF. There is a 10-15% chance of easterly winds around 8 knots after 14Z.
KBUR, High confidence in 18Z TAF. Increasing offshore flow could generate some LGT turbulence around the area after 14Z.
28/1144 AM.
For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Friday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels across most of the Outer Waters. The only exception will be the waters south of the Channel Islands where there is a 60-70% of SCA level northeast winds from tonight through Tuesday evening.
For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. There is a 30-40% chance of SCA level northeast winds tonight through Monday afternoon. Otherwise, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels through Friday.
For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. This afternoon through Tuesday afternoon, there is a 70-90% chance of SCA level northeast winds from around Point Mugu down to Santa Monica and across the San Pedro Channel with a 60-80% chance of Gale force winds tonight through Monday afternoon. Otherwise, today through Friday, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels.
Ca, Wind Advisory in effect from 9 PM this evening to 3 PM PST Monday for zones 88-354-355-358-362-370>372-374-380. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory remains in effect from 6 PM to 10 PM PST this evening for zones 369-375-378-379. (See LAXNPWLOX). High Wind Warning in effect from 10 PM this evening to 3 PM PST Monday for zones 369-375-378-379. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PST this evening for zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect from 9 PM this evening to 3 PM PST Monday for zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 9 PM this evening to 3 PM PST Monday for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
