18/807 AM.
Dry and warm conditions through Monday. Locally breezy offshore flow today, turning onshore next week. A weak to moderate storm system will bring widespread rain Monday Night through Tuesday, focused over San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara Counties. Impacts will generally be minor. Widespread gusty west to northwest winds to follow Wednesday through Friday.
(tdy-Mon), 18/801 AM.
***UPDATE***
The forecast is in good shape this morning with no immediate updates needed. Quick look at the storm for next week points to increasing amounts and chances for SLO and Santa Barbara Counties, with the majority of solutions pointing to Tuesday as the main day for all four counties. Impacts will still be in the minor category.
***From Previous Discussion***
Another warm day is expected today, with temperatures increasing by a few degrees compared to yesterday, though high clouds in the area may somewhat moderate daytime heating. Highs will be about 6 to 12 degrees above normal, with widespread highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Below advisory level east winds (25 to 35 mph gusts) are expected to redevelop across the typical Santa Ana Wind Prone areas of LA and Ventura Counties through this morning. These winds and a generally warmer airmass aloft will yield the modest warming trend for today.
Sunday and Monday, temperatures will cool a couple degrees each day, as a cutoff low approaches the region. 500 mb heights are expected to fall and onshore flow will increase to moderate strength during the afternoon. Marine layer stratus is likely to increase at this time as well. As the center of the low travels farther south along the California Coast, light rain will become possible for northwestern San Luis Obispo County Monday evening, with chances spreading south to Santa Barbara County Monday night.
(Tue-Fri), 18/418 AM.
Monday night through Wednesday, a cutoff low is expected to scoop across the state, with the center of the low remaining north of the Bay Area. Rain is near certain for San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara Counties between Monday night and Wednesay. Timing continues to be uncertain, but Tuesday is the most likely day for rain overall. For Ventura and Los Angeles Counties, there is around a 50-70% chance of some rain, though totals are likely to be much lighter compared to up north. Exact rain amounts are difficult to narrow down at this point especially for the northern counties. Across San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara Counties, between 0.25 to 1.0 inches are likely, and for Ventura and Los Angeles Counties between 0.1 to 0.5 inches are likely. There are some ensemble members that show 2+ inches for the Central Coast, which may occur if the trajectory of the center of the low drops farther to the south. There is also a small chance for thunderstorms and heavier rain showers/rates for San Luis Obispo County and northern Santa Barbara County on Tuesday.
Gusty winds are expected with the storm, especially across the coasts, mountains, and deserts. Winds will be greatest on Tuesday evening along the Central Coast (southerly), and Wednesday evening for Ventura and Los Angeles Counties (westerly).
18/1749z.
At 1631Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1100 ft deep. The top of the inversion was at 1500 ft with a temperature of 18 C.
High confidence in VFR conditions for all sites through 06Z.
Chances for V/LIFR conditions from 10Z-15Z: KSMX (40%), KSBP (25%), KSBA (20%), KOXR (20%) & KLAX/LGB (15%).
KLAX, Moderate confidence in TAF. VFR conditions are expected. However, there is a 15% chance of V/LIFR conditions from 10-16Z. No significant east wind component expected.
KBUR, High confidence in VFR TAF. No wind issues expected.
18/757 AM.
High confidence in winds and seas remaining below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels through Sunday. A system will move through the coastal waters Monday through Wednesday morning bringing the chance for showers mainly north of Point Conception. Cannot rule out a thunderstorm or two across the northern waters Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning.
SCA level winds are possible along the cold front. By Wednesday afternoon into the evening hours, SCA level NW winds will develop south of Point Conception. These winds will likely expand to include the majority of waters by Thursday afternoon. SCA winds may persist into the weekend at least for some waters.
Ca, NONE. PZ, NONE.
