24/110 PM.
Cooler weather is expected over the weekend with scattered light showers, mainly Saturday. Dry weather is then expected most areas Sunday and Monday. Below normal temperatures will continue through the middle of next week with another weak storm possible around late Tuesday or Wednesday.
(tdy-Mon), 24/148 PM.
A weak storm system is moving towards the area this afternoon and is expected to bring some scattered light showers Saturday. Still not certain of precise timing, but models have been consistent indicating very light rain rain amounts (most areas under a tenth of an inch except mountains as much as a third of an an inch). Therefore, just very minimal impacts at most. Winds aloft are mostly from the west with this event so that's not a favorable pattern for rain for areas south of Pt Conception, particularly from southeast SB County to western LA County due to the downsloping created by the Transverse range.
Gusty southwest to west winds will develop later Saturday, strongest in the Antelope Valley with gusts to around 40 mph. Max temps will plummet with all of the clouds and light rain. Look for 4 to 8 degrees of cooling with max temps only in the 60s for the csts/vlys.
There is a 20 percent chc of some lingering morning showers Sunday morning, mainly interior areas and mountains provided the system moves a little slower than the preponderance of mdl guidance indicates. In the afternoon it will be dry with clearing skies save for some clouds and a slight chc of showers over the far eastern San Gabriels. It will remain cool with highs in the 60s.
No issues on Monday as the area will be between weak upper level systems. Temperatures mostly a few degrees below normal.
(Tue-Fri), 24/146 PM.
Another low impact weather day Tuesday except for some possible low clouds and fog near the coast. Otherwise, temperatures within a few degrees of normal under mostly sunny skies.
The prospects for rain later in the week appear to be decreasing, though the deterministic GFS is still holding on to some chances for light rain late Wednesday into Thursday morning. Most of the ensemble solutions are showing little to no rain with temperatures near normal. After that models are indicating weak high pressure aloft for Friday and Saturday leading to warming temperatures.
24/1718z.
At 1630Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor marine inversion.
Overall, moderate confidence in 18Z TAF Package. VFR conditions are generally expected through the evening. After midnight thru end of fcst pd, CIGs 020-035 are likely at coastal and valley sites. Timing could be off +/- 3 hours.
KLAX, Moderate confidence in TAF. MVFR CIGs 020-025 expected around 25/11Z (+/- 2 hours). Likely to lift to 030-035 by late morning. No significant east wind component expected.
KBUR, Moderate confidence in TAF. VFR conditions expected through this evening. MVFR CIGs 025-030 likely to develop late tonight into early morning hours. Low confidence on timing (+/- 3 hours). 20% chance VFR conditions (VFR ceilings) prevail thru fcst pd. No wind issues expected.
24/1247 PM.
For the Outer Waters, high confidence in current forecast. Across the waters north of Point Conception, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds will diminish below advisory levels by late this morning. Across the waters south of Point Conception, especially near the Channel Islands, SCA winds will likely persist through Saturday night. Winds could drop below advisory levels at times Friday morning. From Saturday afternoon through Monday, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels. Chances for SCA level winds will increase from Tuesday onward.
For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Localized SCA winds are possible this afternoon and evening. Otherwise, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels through Sunday. Chances for SCA winds will increase each day next week.
For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. SCA level W winds are expected later this afternoon through late tonight focused across western portion of the Santa Barbara Channel and near the Channel Islands. There is a 30% chance of SCA winds across SB channel Saturday afternoon and evening. On Sunday, onshore W winds will flirt with advisory levels especially nearshore during the afternoon into early evening hours. Slight chance for SCA level winds early next week focused across the usually favored waters with increasing chances Wednesday and Thursday.
A weak system will bring spotty showers across the coastal waters Saturday and Saturday night. This activity may linger into Sunday morning.
Ca, NONE. PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Saturday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
