21/1241 PM.
Minimal changes expected through the weekend with seasonably warm temperatures. Patchy night and morning low clouds and fog will be confined to coastal areas. Additional warming is possible early next week as high pressure tries to build in from the southeast.
(tdy-Mon), 21/103 PM.
Southern California continues to be in between an upper level low over the Pac NW and a strong 598dam high over the 4 corners region. Clockwise rotation around the high continues to usher in moisture from the south, though that tap is expected be drying up this weekend into early next week so chances for any additional showers locally is under 10% and only for far eastern LA County.
Model guidance continues to indicate very little change in temperatures through next Monday. Above normal by 4-8 degrees but not quite high enough for widespread heat hazards. There will be pockets of LA County that could reach moderate to locally major heat risk this weekend, namely the western San Fernando Valley as well as southeastern LA County between Compton and Norwalk, but not widespread enough for an advisory.
(Tue-Fri), 21/156 PM.
High pressure is expected to build back into California starting next Tuesday while at the same time pressure gradients from the north and east weaken. With high temperatures already on the verge of advisories and warnings through early next week, the next burst of heat Tuesday and beyond has at least a 40-60% chance pushing that over the edge to at least heat advisory levels and possibly into warning level, particularly inland areas. How widespread the heat hazards are will be largely be determined by the pressure gradients. If the gradients trend towards the 75th percentile or higher, which roughly would be around -3mb LAX-DAG and -4mb LAX-BFL, temperatures would on the higher side with numerous excessive heat warnings likely. If gradients have less of an offshore component per the latest GFS then temperatures will still be hot but at least a few degrees cooler. The latter scenario being the most likely outcome.
At this time not seeing any big subtropical push next week, though there is minor peak in PW's on Tuesday and early Wednesday at around 1.2".
21/1930z.
At 18Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 600 feet with an inversion top at 3300 feet and 27 Celsius.
High confidence in VFR conditions through at least Saturday for KPRB, KSBA, KVNY, KBUR, KPMD, KWJF. There is a 5-10% chance of -TSRA at KPMD and KWJF today.
Chances for LIFR/IFR ceilings tonight at KSBP (80%) KSMX (100%) KOXR (10%) KCMA (20%). Chances for IFR/MVFR ceilings tonight at KSMO (10%) KLAX (20%) KLGB (20%).
KLAX, Other than a 20% chance of BKN008-012 from 10-16Z Saturday, high confidence in VFR conditions through at least Saturday. High confidence in any east winds staying under 6 knots.
KBUR, High confidence in VFR conditions with seasonal winds through at least Saturday.
21/120 PM.
High risk of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) conditions continuing over the outer waters from the Central Coast to San Nicolas Island through Saturday night, lowering to moderate for Sunday and Monday. There is a moderate risk for the nearshore Central Coast waters each afternoon and evening through Saturday, lowering for Sunday and Monday. Elsewhere, the risk for SCA is low, with seasonal winds likely.
Ca, NONE. PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect until 2 AM PDT Saturday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 11 PM PDT Sunday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 6 AM PDT Monday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
