07/207 PM.
Moderate heat impacts will continue through Friday away from the coast in response to a strong ridge building over the region. Some relief from the heat is likely this weekend as the ridge breaks down and opens the door for possible monsoon showers or thunderstorms.
(tdy-Fri), 07/207 PM.
High confidence in moderate heat risk away from the coast through at least Thursday in response to a ridge peaking near 596 dm over the region Wednesday and Thursday before gradually weakening and shifting into the Four Corners region this weekend. No changes to the associated Heat Advisory that runs through Friday.
Heat will peak for most areas Wednesday and Thursday before a decent cooling trend begins Friday. Peak highs are expected to be 70s to mid 80s near the coast, 90-105 valleys and lower mountains/desert.
Advisory level Sundowner winds are expected again this evening (advisory in effect) and possible again Wednesday and Thursday evenings for Southwest Santa Barbara County. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected for this area as well as interior areas due to combined hot, dry, and breezy conditions.
Night to morning low clouds will mostly be relegated to the Central Coast, although an eddy in response to the Sundowner winds may squeeze pockets of low clouds and dense fog under the building ridge, especially for southern Los Angeles County.
(Sat-Tue), 07/206 PM.
The ridge at least briefing breaks down this weekend before likely nosing back into the region during the middle part of next week. Broad southeast to southerly flow aloft will support a 10-20 percent chance (highest mountains and deserts) of monsoon showers or thunderstorms this weekend into next week. The added moisture may add to at least low to moderate heat risk in the region, with heat potentially building closer to the coast.
07/1712z.
At 1622z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1100 ft deep. The top of the inversion was 6100 ft deep with a temperature of 21 C.
High confidence in VFR for KVNY, KPMD and KWJF.
Moderate confidence in TAFs for KPRB, KSMX and KSBP where MVFR transition may be off by 90 minutes this evening.
Moderate confidence in TAFs for KSBA, KOXR and KCMA where there is a 25 percent chc of IFR cigs 11Z-17Z.
Low confidence in TAF for KSMO with a 40 percent chc of IFR cigs 11Z-16Z tonight.
Moderate Confidence in TAFs for KLGB and KLAX. There is a 40 percent chc of no low clouds developing this evening. Arrival and clearing times could be off by as much as 90 minutes.
KLAX, Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 40 percent chc of no low clouds developing this evening. Low clouds could arrive as late a 14Z. Good confidence that any east wind component will be AOB 5kt.
KBUR, High confidence in TAF.
07/107 PM.
High confidence in Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level NW winds persisting through at least Thursday across the Outer Waters. There is a 50-70% chance of Gale Force winds this afternoon through Thursday. Winds will likely be strongest near Point Conception and the Channel Islands, extending south to San Nicolas Island. Short- period, advisory level, choppy seas will gradually increase in height, reaching around 10 ft by mid-week and then subsiding below advisory levels Friday into the weekend.
SCA level NW-W winds will affect the inner waters along the Central Coast and the Santa Barbara Channel during the afternoon and evening hours through Wednesday and Thursday. There is a 40-60 percent chance of Gales Wednesday in the western Santa Barbara Channel, and a 40-50% chance of Gales along the Central Coast Wednesday and Thursday.
For the inner waters adjacent to Los Angeles County, moderate confidence in SCA level gusts through tonight. Otherwise, conds are expected to remain below SCA levels.
Ca, Heat Advisory remains in effect until 8 PM PDT Friday for zones 38-88-343>345-353-372-373-375>380-548. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect until 8 AM PDT Wednesday for zones 349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX). Heat Advisory remains in effect from 10 AM Wednesday to 8 PM PDT Friday for zone 368. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for zones 645-670. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 5 AM to 5 PM PDT Wednesday for zones 645-670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect until 5 AM PDT Wednesday for zones 650-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 11 AM to 5 PM PDT Wednesday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 10 PM PDT this evening for zone 655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
