23/750 PM.
Temperatures will be near normal Friday, with a cooling trend over the weekend as a weak storm crosses the area. The storm will bring scattered light showers to the region on Saturday. Dry weather is then expected most areas Sunday and Monday. Below normal temperatures will continue through the middle of next week with another weak storm possible around late Tuesday or Wednesday.
(Thu-Sun), 23/805 PM.
***UPDATE***
Fairly quiet conditions expected through the next 24 hours, with high clouds streaming overhead. Some broken low clouds are possible over the LA Basin overnight into Friday, with a 30% chance of low clouds and fog south of Santa Maria. Gusty northerly winds are affecting SW Santa Barbara County, likely peaking now with gusts of 30 to 40 mph (strongest near Refugio).
Temperatures on Friday will for the most part be around 5 to 10 degrees cooler, aside from a few degrees warmer over the far interior sections. High clouds will continue to move over the region, and winds will shift to gusty onshore in the afternoon, especially through the passes and canyons of the San Gabriels into the Antelope Valley.
Dry weather is expected through Saturday morning, with increasing clouds on Saturday ahead of an approaching weak storm system.
***From Previous Discussion***
Chances for light showers will develop Saturday afternoon and evening as the system moves over the area. A majority of the ensembles, roughly 60-70% of them, indicate at least some light measurable rain during that period. However, there is very little forcing with this one and agree with the models that amounts will be mostly under a tenth of an inch, with a quarter inch being the highest, generally at higher elevations. Gusty west to northwest winds will develop later Saturday, strongest in the Antelope Valley with gusts to around 40 mph.
Sunday is expected to be dry for the most part but models show lingering moisture with moderate westerly flow so would not be surprised if there are a few light showers around, best chances in the eastern LA County foothills and mountains and along the Central Coast. Temperatures will remain on the cool side with highs in the 60s most areas.
(Mon-Thu), 23/140 PM.
A couple of cool but dry and sunny days Monday and Tuesday.
Another weak system with minimal forcing will approach the area Wednesday. Most of the EC ensembles are dry but the GEFS solutions are a little wetter. Still a very low impact system with rain amounts, if any, under a tenth of an inch.
Thursday there is the potential for some gusty post-frontal west to northwest winds, but otherwise dry weather the rest of next week with a warming trend.
23/2357z.
At 2344Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor marine inversion.
Low to moderate confidence in KSMX, KSMO, KLAX, and KLGB TAFs. High confidence in remainder of TAFs. There is a 40% chance of conds remaining VFR at KSMO, KLAX, and KLGB through the period. There is a 30% chance of LIFR-VLIFR conds at KSMX 11-17Z.
KLAX, Low to moderate confidence in TAF. Conds may remain VFR through the period. There is a 50% chance of east wind component reaching 7-8 kts 10-18Z Fri.
KBUR, High confidence in VFR TAF. No wind issues expected.
23/752 PM.
For the Outer Waters, high confidence in current forecast. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds will continue across the waters north of Point Conception through Friday morning. While across the waters south of Point Conception, especially near the Channel Islands, SCA winds will likely persist through Saturday night. Winds could drop below advisory levels at times Friday morning. From Saturday afternoon through Monday, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels.
For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. SCA level NW winds are expected to diminish by midnight. There is a moderate chance for low-end SCA level NW winds Friday afternoon/eve. For Saturday through Monday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels.
For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. SCA level winds are expected to continue until late tonight across the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel and near the Channel Islands. There is a 40-50% chance SCA winds occur across the aforementioned waters Friday afternoon/eve, but will likely remain confined to the extreme western portion of the Channel. For Saturday through Monday, winds and seas are generally expected to remain below advisory levels. However, onshore winds could locally reach SCA levels especially nearshore during the afternoon into early evening hours over the weekend and into Saturday, mainly across the Anacapa Passage.
A weak system will bring spotty showers across the coastal waters Saturday and Saturday night. This activity may linger into Sunday morning.
Ca, NONE. PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 10 PM PDT this evening for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 AM PDT Friday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
