02/659 PM.
Warmer temperatures with locally gusty Santa Ana winds will return Tuesday through Thursday, strongest and warmest on Wednesday. Slightly cooler temperatures are expected Friday and over the weekend but highs will still be at least 4-8 degrees above normal. There will be a chance of rain by next Tuesday.
(Mon-Thu), 02/826 PM.
***UPDATE***
High temperatures today were around 5 to 10 degrees cooler than Sunday in most locations. Surface gradients have trended from offshore to weakly onshore along the coast. However, weak north to northeast winds are still affecting interior portions of LA County, with gusty north winds over southwest Santa Barbara County.
There is a better chance of low clouds making onto the beaches and near-coastal areas tonight. Satellite images show patchy low clouds over the nearshore waters off of LA and Orange Counties. Periodic ceilings at KLAX and KLGB are around 700 feet, so dense fog issues are unlikely. There is a chance of patchy to areas of low clouds over the coastal areas of Ventura and LA Counties, but offshore winds increasing overnight will reverse this trend quickly. Moderate to strong offshore winds are expected, beginning Tuesday morning but peaking late Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Warming temperatures are also expected, peaking on Wednesday and Thursday. For Tuesday's highs, temperatures should warm up 5 to 10 degrees in many areas, and locally up to 12 degrees warmer.
***From Previous Discussion***
The peak of this next Santa Ana will be on Wednesday with low end advisory northeast winds in the usual areas and high temperatures well into the 80s across most coast and valley areas. Models have backed off temps slightly and 90s appear to be off the table, but mid to high 80s are a strong bet. Based on the daily temperature records for Wednesday, a few records are possible, particularly Burbank (record 86), LAX (record 84), and Long Beach (record 87) are the most susceptible to being broken.
Offshore flow will begin to weaken Thursday and high pressure aloft will be weakening as well but highs will still mostly be in the low to mid 80s across coast and valleys and can't rule out one or two record highs.
(Fri-Mon), 02/232 PM.
High pressure aloft will give way to a weak upper low Friday and Saturday. Over the last several days there have been a smattering of ensemble solutions that have indicated perhaps a sprinkle or two falling but even that seems very unlikely (less than a 10% chance) and probably wouldn't even amount to more than a trace. The most likely outcome is continued dry weather, some increasing clouds and cooler temperatures, but even there highs are expected to remain at least 5-10 degrees above normal.
A strongly tilted ridge will bring 2-5 degrees of warming to the area Sunday, but otherwise clear skies and light winds.
Chances for the first rain in a month increase rapidly early to mid next week with quarter to half inch of rain on average either Tuesday or Wednesday.
02/1930z.
At 19Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer or inversion.
Low confidence in KSBA and south including KLAX 06-17Z with with a 20-50 percent chance of LIFR/VLIFR cigs vsbys, with the highest probably focused across the LA basin. High confidence in VFR conds elsewhere except KPRB where MVFR vis is likely and there is a 10 percent chance of IFR conds or lower between 10-17Z.
Moderate confidence in wind, especially for KVNY after 12Z. There is a 30 percent chance of 36012kt as early as 16Z.
KLAX, Low confidence in TAF. There is a 50 percent chance that VFR conds prevail. Any east wind component will likely remain below 6 kts.
KBUR, High confidence in TAF.
02/919 PM.
For all the Outer Waters and the Inner Waters north of Point Conception, high confidence in current forecast. Expecting Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas to gradually diminish through night. Offshore northeast winds will develop each morning near Morro Bay, generally below SCA levels. There is a 40-50% chance for localized east wind gusts near SCA levels near the Channel Islands Wednesday. Another round of SCA level winds and seas across the outer waters will be possible Friday into Saturday, and SCA winds may linger into the following week.
For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate confidence in current forecast. Seas of 4-8 feet will decrease through Tuesday. Tuesday night through Wednesday and potentially into Thursday morning, there is a 50-60% percent chance of east to northeast SCA winds from Ventura south to Orange County. Northwest winds should increase to SCA levels over the waters early next week, especially Tuesday.
Ca, High Surf Advisory in effect until 9 AM PST Tuesday for zones 340-346-354. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect until 2 AM PST Tuesday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
