22/113 PM.
Dry conditions are expected through the end of next week with temperatures rising to near to slightly above normal.
(tdy-Tue), 22/141 PM.
Santa Ana winds are beginning to diminish this afternoon in typical style. Wind advisories have been discontinued for coastal areas but have been extended to 5pm for the inland portions. Otherwise, a very quiet weather pattern now through Thanksgiving week as a high pressure ridge builds into the region. Temperatures will be trending in different directions depending on proximity to the coast. Coastal areas, or areas within 15 or so miles from the coast, will be trending cooler through Monday as onshore flow returns. And by Monday (if not as early as Sunday) some coastal areas will see a return to low clouds and fog. For the valleys and other interior areas temperatures will be similar or slightly warmer.
Starting Tuesday following the passage of a weak upper level trough into the northern portion of the Great Basin, pressure gradients will shift back offshore. There is little to no support aloft for any gusty winds but the diminished onshore push will along with higher than normal heights will result in a warming trend.
(Wed-Sat), 22/202 PM.
Temperatures will continue to trend upward through Thanksgiving day as light to moderate offshore flow continues. At this time the chances for strong Santa Ana winds are very low as there is little upper support. And in fact the current ensembles are indicating below advisory level winds at most next week. So like so many Thanksgivings in southern California, the most likely outcome is a mild to warm day across the area with clear skies, unlimited visibilities, and lots of turkey.
Going into next weekend models continue trend farther inland with the next upper level trough. What at one point looked like another strong storm for California has turned much drier as the models have shifted the storm's trajectory farther east. There are still a few ensemble solutions hanging onto rain chances but each run seems to trend drier.
22/1847z.
At 1802Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer. There was a weak surface based inversion to 300 ft with a max temperature of 18 C.
Overall, good confidence in TAF package. There is a 40% chc of no LIFR conditions after 09Z Sun at KPRB. Winds speeds may be off by around 5 kts during peak gusts at KSMX, KOXR, KCMA, KBUR, KVNY, KPMD, and KWJF.
Lgt-Mdt turbc and LLWS possible over and near to hier trrn.
KLAX, Good confidence in TAF. There is 20% chance of east winds of 6-8 kts after 09Z Sun.
KBUR, Good confidence in cig/vis portion of TAF. Wind speed and direction may change randomly through 22Z. Moderate confidence in winds thereafter. Winds speeds may be off by around 5 kts during peak gusts.
22/209 PM.
Across the Outer Waters, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) seas with wind gusts approaching SCA levels at times (especially S of pt. Conception) is expected through the weekend. SCA conditions may linger through mid-week for waters 30NM from shore. Moderate chances for a combination of SCA winds and seas to return next weekend.
Inside the California Bight, northerly will continue to impact nearshore from Ventura to Malibu through this afternoon, with winds reaching Santa Cruz and Anacapa islands at times. Conditions will improve Saturday evening into next week.
Ca, High Surf Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Monday for zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX). High Surf Advisory in effect until 9 AM PST Sunday for zone 354. (See LAXCFWLOX). Wind Advisory now in effect until 5 PM PST this afternoon for zones 358-369-371-374-375. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Monday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
