24/329 AM.
Weak northeast winds are expected to develop this weekend, bringing drier conditions and warmer temperatures to the region that will persist through the first half of next week. Cooler conditions to follow with a growing potential for a significant storm system towards the end of next week.
(tdy-Mon), 24/340 AM.
Fairly benign stretch of weather ahead in the short-term. A clearing and drying trend will continue this weekend as gradients shift to weakly offshore. Expect the strongest northeast flow to occur today. These weak offshore winds will most likely peak below Advisory levels, with gusts of 20 to 40 mph common in the wind prone mountains and valleys. Temperatures will rise 8 to 15 degrees today compared to the last couple of days. Highs in the 70s to lower 80s are expected, with an additional few degrees of warming on Sunday. After that, little change in temperatures expected through at least Monday.
(Tue-Fri), 24/341 AM.
Northwest to northeast winds will increase Monday Night into Tuesday, then weaken into Wednesday. This will keep temperatures largely unchanged with highs in the 70s to lower 80s most common which is right around normal for this time of the year.
The pattern will start to change around Thursday, with onshore flow returning, temperatures dropping, and low pressure forming over the West Coast. This will open the storm window over California, with a growing chance of a significant storm impacting the local area as early as Friday but more so for the weekend. There is a 90+% chance for rain sometime in the Oct 30 through Nov 2 timeframe, likely lasting several hours. Halloween activities are likely to be impacted. There remains a range of outcomes in terms of rain amounts, rates, and winds. At this point, the most likely outcome is for a moderate- level storm in terms of strength and impacts, with a low but present risk for a higher level storm.
24/1041z.
At 10Z over KLAX, there was no marine layer and no inversion.
High confidence in VFR conditions at all TAF sites through at least 12Z Sunday, except a 20% chance of IFR ceilings Sunday morning at KLAX KLGB KSMX. Light LLWS possible at KVNY KBUR KCMA with NE winds aloft this morning.
KLAX, High confidence in VFR conditions through at least 18Z Sunday, except for a 20% chance of IFR ceilings Sunday 10-16Z. High confidence in any east winds staying under 08 knots.
KBUR, High confidence in VFR conditions through at least Sunday. North winds 5-10 knots and/or LLWS +/- 10 knots possible through 18Z today.
24/248 AM.
Steep seas near 10 feet will continue through early this morning for the outer waters. 15-20 knot North winds are likely nearshore this morning around Malibu, and West winds over many nearshore waters in the afternoon hours. Otherwise, high confidence in quiet conditions this weekend. Northwest winds will increase next week. SCA conditions are likely Monday and Tuesday for the waters from the Central Coast through San Nicolas Island.
24/307 AM.
Very high tides between 7.5 and 8.0 feet (roughly 1.0-1.5 feet above astronomical predictions) are expected during the morning hours of Sunday through Thursday over all coastal areas, with the highest towards Los Angeles County. Monday through Wednesday could produce the highest on record (current record at San Pedro is 7.93 feet set on Jan 10, 2005 with records going back to 1924).
Minor coastal flooding is likely purely based on the high tides. While these tides might be the highest of all-time, similar extreme tides in the past tell us that coastal communities should expect shallow flooding of harbor walkways, beach parking lots and bike paths. With swells and surf on the lower-end during these extreme tides (2-3 feet), the threat of more significance/damaging impacts should be limited to the most vulnerable areas that have little-to-no sandy beach left and have already seen water damage.
With that said, these is a small change for more elevated surf on south-facing shores around Wednesday as waves from a southern Hemisphere storm arrive. The majority of computer projections keep this wave energy on the small side, but a couple are a little larger.
With all of these considerations in play, Coastal Flood Advisories are in effect Sunday through Thursday. There is a low potential for targeted Coastal Flooding Warnings if a larger swell develops and produces elevated surf on top of the very high tides.
Ca, Coastal Flood Advisory in effect from 5 AM Sunday to 1 PM PDT Thursday for zones 340-346-349-350-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect until 6 AM PDT early this morning for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
