08/644 PM.
A warming trend will continue this week with well above normal temperatures through Friday, peaking Tuesday through Thursday. Offshore flow will produce locally gusty canyon winds in the mornings.
(Mon-Thu), 08/745 PM.
***UPDATE***
A 591 MB ridge of high pressure is centered about 700 miles west of Los Angeles, and will remain nearly stationary (while weakening some) through midweek. At the surface, high pressure centered west of the Bay Area extends inland over central California and the Great Basin. With lower pressure over the southern California Bight, offshore pressure gradients have set up over the region. At 700 PM this evening, the LAX to Daggett gradient was -4.3 MB. This gradient is forecast to strengthen some overnight, and again Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. This will maintain weak to locally moderate Santa Ana Winds over portions of the area, from the Santa Lucias to the Santa Susana Mountains and the San Gabriels. Peak wind gusts will be between 25 to 40 mph in the Santa Ana wind-prone areas, with occasional gusts up to 45 mph possible.
Along with the breezy winds, warm and dry conditions will persist through the week, with highs peaking Tuesday and Wednesday. Expect highs to be in the 70s to mid 80s, with upper 80s in the warmer valleys. By Thursday, some cooling is expected as the upper ridge begins to weaken over the area.
***From Previous Discussion***
Weak Santa Ana conditions associated with weak to moderate offshore flow across the region will persist through Wednesday under a quite strong ridge aloft for this time of year. The result will be dry, warm, and breezy conditions with widespread highs in the 70s to mid 80s with the warmest valleys nearing 90 degrees. These types of temperatures may bring increased concerns for heat illnesses for vulnerable people or those who are outside for a prolonged period of time. The dry air mass and long nights this time of year will support temperatures dropping off quickly in the evening, especially where winds drop off. The ridge begins breaking down with offshore flow weakening or reversing onshore Thursday, kicking off a decent cooling trend.
A Wind Advisory continues for the Santa Lucias with marginal wind advisory possible for the most prone Santa Ana wind areas of Ventura/Los Angeles County. Fortunately, fire weather concerns are still limited due to the significant rainfall we experienced earlier this season.
(Fri-Mon), 08/239 PM.
Seasonably warm conditions are anticipated this weekend with night to morning low clouds potentially returning to coastal areas along with afternoon to evening breezy onshore to northwest winds.
Rainfree conditions look to continue well into next week. There is a 30-40 percent chance of a strong ridge rebuilding overhead into the middle part of next week with weak to moderate Santa Ana conditions at times. In this scenario, widespread highs in the 70s to mid 80s would return for most coasts and coastal valleys. If the ridge is weaker or offshore flow doesn’t materialize (40-50 percent chance), more seasonably warm temperatures (60s and 70s) would be common.
09/0607z.
At 0510Z at KLAX, There was no marine layer. There was a surface- based inversion with a top of 900 feet and a temperature of 25 C.
High confidence in TAFs.
KLAX, High confidence in TAF. Any east wind component will be less than 7 knots.
KBUR, High confidence in VFR TAF.
08/800 PM.
For the outer waters, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) conditions are likely through at least Wednesday morning, with a 30-40% chance of winds lingering through the rest of the week. SCA winds are mostly likely north of San Nicolas Island during the afternoon and evening hours.
For the inner waters south of Point Conception and the nearshore waters along the Central Coast out to 10 NM offshore, there is a 60% percent chance of local northeast SCA level wind gusts from Ventura to Santa Monica and a 60-70% chance of northeast SCA winds from near Pismo Beach to Point Piedras Blancas late tonight though Tuesday morning. There is a low-to- moderate (20 to 40 percent) chance of SCA level NE winds once again for the aforementioned areas Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Otherwise, winds and seas should remain below SCA levels.
Ca, Wind Advisory remains in effect until 10 AM PST Tuesday for zone 342. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect until 11 AM PST Tuesday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Wednesday for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
