19/339 AM.
Dry and warm conditions are expected through Monday. Locally breezy onshore wind is expected though early next week. A weak to moderate storm system will bring widespread rain Monday night through Tuesday, focused over San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara Counties. Impacts will generally be minor. Widespread gusty west to northwest winds will follow Wednesday through Friday.
(tdy-Tue), 19/322 AM.
Benign weather is expected today and Monday, with most highs in the 70s each day. Light onshore winds are expected this afternoon and evening, becoming south-southwestelry Monday afternoon, especially along the Central Coast. An upper level low, currently around 450 miles west of Washington state, will drop south and east moving inland across northern California during the day on Tuesday. As this pattern develops, a noticeable cooling trend can be expected for all areas with most areas about 4-8 degrees below normal by Tuesday.
This upper low will bring another round of measurable precipitation to the area. Rain will develop across the Central Coast Monday evening with rain spreading south and east through the day on Tuesday. Based on current guidance, it looks like the rain band will lose it's "oomph" after it passes through Santa Barbara county. So, highest rain totals (0.50-1.50 inches) are expected across San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara counties with lesser amounts (0.10-0.50 inches) across Ventura and Los Angeles counties. Some foothill areas will likely see locally higher amounts due to orographic effects. Also, there still is a 10-20% chance that amounts could be around double of current expectations (based on some ensemble members). Rainfall rates are generally expected to be in the 0.10 to 0.33 inch/hour range, resulting in minimal hydrologic impacts. Even if the rainfall totals do trend upwards towards the higher end scenario, overall flooding risk will remain minor to moderate. Additionally, there will be a 10-20% chance of thunderstorms on Tuesday across San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara counties.
As for snow levels, they look to remain above the 6500 to 7000 foot range. So, no significant snowfall impacts are anticipated. South to southwest winds will bring gusts of 20 to 40 mph to parts of the area on Tuesday, especially over the mountains and much of San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara Counties.
(Wed-Sat), 19/336 AM.
The low pressure system is likely to exit the region Wednesay into Thursday, though there will remain a slight chance of showers, particularly along north facing mountains slopes. West to northwestern winds are likely after the passage of the front, with gusty conditions expected across the beaches, mountains, and deserts. Winds will then become northwesterly later Thursday and Friday as a weak inside slider noses into the region, with winds focused over the more typically windy mountain/desert areas.
Cool temperatures will continue on Wednesday (widespread 60s), increasing to near normal by the end of the week. Additional light rain is again possible sometime between next weekend and early next week (4/25-4/28), as some models have the inside slider system traveling westward and centering over the coastal waters.
19/1158z.
At 07Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1500 feet deep. The top of the inversion was 2500 feet with a temperature of 17 C.
Overall for the TAF package, high confidence in VFR conditions for KPRB, KSBP, KSBA, KOXR, KCMA, KBUR, KVNY, KPMD and KWJF.
For KSMX, there is a 40% chance of VFR conditions through the period. For KSMO, KLAX and KLGB, there is a 15% chance of IFR/LIFR conditions until 17Z.
KLAX, Moderate to high confidence in TAF. There is a 15% chance of bkn004-BKN010 cigs until 17Z. No significant easterly wind component is expected.
KBUR, High confidence in TAF.
19/338 AM.
High confidence in winds and seas remaining below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels through tonight. A system will move through the coastal waters Monday afternoon through Wednesday morning bringing a chance of showers to much of the area. Cannot rule out a thunderstorm or two across the northern waters Tuesday morning.
SCA level southerly winds are possible along the cold front. By Wednesday afternoon into the evening hours, SCA level NW winds will develop south of Point Conception. These winds will likely expand to include the majority of waters by Thursday afternoon. SCA winds may persist into the weekend at least for some waters.
Ca, NONE. PZ, NONE.
