02/1137 AM.
Another storm system arrive Saturday bringing rain and high elevation snow through Sunday along with some gusty winds at times. Broader troughing over the West will keep a cooler weather pattern in place through next week with cool days and cold nights.
(Fri-Mon), 02/855 PM.
***UPDATE***
Today was another cool day, with high temperatures in the 50s and 60s throughout most of the region, in part due to scattered showers moving in from the south. Winds also trended stronger through the day ahead of the front along the Central Coast, therefore wind advisories were expanded to the coasts from Point Conception northward. Currently expecting a lull in the winds tonight but winds will increase again in the early morning hours as the front nears. Current guidance brings the heaviest rain through the region relatively quickly on Saturday, especially compared to previous storms. However, the HRRR model suggests the Santa Ynez Range into western portions of Ventura County could see rain rates in excess of 1 inch per hour with this band. Other high resolution guidance have somewhat lower rates, so will need to continue to monitor this area and see if guidance comes into better alignment.
***From Previous Discussion***
Moisture coming from the south continues to generate some isolated light showers, lasting into the evening while the next storm approaches from the northwest. The Central Coast will start seeing rain from this system later tonight while it will take into at least late Saturday morning or afternoon to reach LA County. Models continue to indicate that the initial frontal passage will be pretty heavy, particularly in southern Santa Barbara County, western Ventura County as well as the Santa Lucias where the storm will take advantage of the favorable upslope flow created by the steep terrain to generate rain rates of at least 0.75/hr and locally up to an inch per hour. The highest rates would be in the foothills and mountains but certainly can't rule out heavy rain close to the coast, especially in SB County. There is also a small risk of thunderstorms, between 10 and 15% in those same areas as well.
The heaviest part of the storm for LA County is expected to be late Saturday afternoon and evening. Again the upslope areas will be favored but overall amounts are expected to decrease as the system moves into LA County.
Rain amounts through Saturday night are expected to range from 1-2" coast/valleys and 2-4" in the foothills and mountains.
It looks like there will be an overall decrease in rain rates the first part of Sunday before a second a second impulse from this storm moves through the area into Monday and possibly another one into Tuesday. Models indicate these could tack on an additional 1" across coast and valleys up to 2" in the mountains.
Snow levels are expected to remain at or above 7000 feet through Sunday night, then lower to around 6000 feet on Monday and Tuesday.
(Tue-Fri), 02/1237 PM.
There are a few model solutions that indicate some additional rain on Wednesday followed by some light precip Thursday on north facing slopes with snow levels possibly as low as 3000 feet. Regardless, temperatures are expected to be well below normal next week with possible frost and freeze issues overnight in the colder areas.
Beyond that the ensembles are in good agreement showing a prolonged period of dry weather through the middle of the month.
03/0401z.
At 00Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer and no inversion. There was a moist layer from the surface to 6500 feet.
Light showers could form anywhere through this evening - low confidence on timing and coverage. The next storm system which will bring steady moderate rain later tonight and/or Saturday - moderate confidence in timing (+/- 4 hours) and ceilings (+/- 1 flight category).
KLAX, Moderate confidence in flight category forecast with periods of -RA and MVFR-VFR common. Brief IFR is possible during peak rain (20Z Saturday to 08Z Sunday). Moderate confidence that winds will stay either east, southeast, or south (with little to no west component) through 03Z Monday. Low confidence on wind speed.
KBUR, Moderate confidence in flight category forecast with periods of -RA and MVFR-VFR common. Brief IFR is possible during peak rain from 20Z Saturday to 08Z Sunday.
02/839 PM.
A storm system will affect the region tonight through the weekend, bringing periods of rain, low visibility, gusty south winds, and a remote risk of strong thunderstorms and waterspouts. Although there will be breaks in the hazardous conditions, mariners should consider staying in safe harbor through at least the weekend.
High confidence in south to southeast wind gusts of 30 to 40 knots and steep seas from San Miguel Island and northward through the Central Coast through early Saturday. Gale Warnings are in effect, and will be replace with a Small Craft Advisory on Saturday after the winds peak. High confidence in southeast wind gusts of 20 to 30 knots for the rest of the waters tonight into Saturday. Another round of south winds, about 5 knots weaker, will push through the area on Sunday.
Yet another storm system will likely affect the waters Monday through Tuesday or Wednesday, but low confidence on the details.
Very large tides will affect the area each morning through Monday. Read BEACHES section below for more information.
02/841 PM.
Abnormally large high tides between 7.0 and 7.5 feet MLLW will occur each morning through Sunday, roughly between 8 am and 11 am. A mixture of south wind swells and a longer period west swell will combine with these tides to elevate the risk of coastal flooding. Similar events in the past suggest that any impacts will be minor, but folks should plan for some shallow flooding of normally dry beach areas (including bike paths and walkways) as well as vulnerable harbor areas. Rain is also expected at this time, which will enhance the risk for isolated impactful flood due to the combination of outflow from streams and storm drains. This is especially the case for areas like Naples Island.
Elevated surf and strong currents are also expected through Monday. A High Surf Advisory will likely be needed for Sunday for the Central Coast and Ventura Coast, but will keep the Beach Hazards Statement going tonight and consider an upgrade tomorrow.
Ca, Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Monday morning for zones 87-340-346-349-350-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect until 6 PM PST Saturday for zones 340>342-346>349. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory now in effect until 6 PM PST Saturday for zones 344-345. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory remains in effect until 6 PM PST Saturday for zones 353-376>378. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ, Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PST Saturday for zones 645-670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 2 PM PST Saturday for zones 650-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
