14/756 PM.
A moderate to strong Santa Ana Wind event kicks off tomorrow, bringing widespread critical fire weather conditions to much of Southwest California through Saturday. Additionally, very warm temperatures bring a high risk of heat illness to all coastal areas. A significant cool down with a chance of widespread rain is expected next week.
(Wed-Sat), 14/756 PM.
***UPDATE*** The first Santa Ana Wind event of the season is on track to produce very gusty northeast to east winds across much of Southwest California starting tomorrow morning. RED FLAG WARNINGS are in effect for much of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties from tomorrow at 6AM through Saturday 8PM. For interior portions of Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo Counties, RED FLAG WARNINGS are in effect 3AM-6PM Friday. Extreme fire growth and behavior is expected if any fire starts.
A slew of wind products are in effect during similar times, although wind advisories will likely be needed for late Friday through Saturday. Additionally, this Santa Ana will be a very warm one, with coastal areas forecast to experience a high risk of heat illness with the warmest temps in the region.
It is imperative to practice wildfire safety and make sure to have plans in place for potential evacuations and/or power outages.
***From Previous Discussion***
The first Santa Ana event for the season is going to be a strong one. Forecast models and ensemble gradients are all pointing to a strong event with with 50kt northeast winds at 850mb and surface gradients around 8-9mb from the east. There have been some gusty north to northeast winds to 30-40mph this morning in the San Gabriel Mountains and across the western San Fernando Valley. But the primary days will be Thursday through Saturday, with Friday being the strongest. During that peak period wind gusts across the LA/Ventura mountains are expected to reach as high as 70 mph while the LA/Ventura Valleys and Ventura coastal areas peak at around 55 mph. Typical Santa Anas do not include the LA Metro area, Antelope Valley, or Central Coast but some of the latest model forecasts indicate at least some 15-30 mph gusts in those areas.
Temperatures have started to warm up today and that trend will continue through Friday. Due to the strong subsidence associated with this event and relatively warmer air aloft this will be a very hot Santa Ana, with coastal areas being the warmest. Model forecasts for today had a 3-6 degree cold bias so there's a good chance that there will a similar bias the next couple days. With that in mind high temperatures have been increased by at least a few degrees Thursday and Friday. Most coastal areas, including SLO and Santa Barbara Counties will be in the 90s by Friday and heat advisories are in effect. Valleys will be a little cooler but still in the mid 80s to mid 90s. And there is a 5-10 percent chance of some 100 degree highs as well.
(Sun-Wed), 14/201 PM.
A rapid cooling trend is expected to begin Sunday for coastal areas as a low pressure system moving into the Pac NW initiates strong return to onshore flow. Coastal areas will drop 10-15 degrees from Saturday and could see a return of low clouds and fog as early as Monday. Valleys and other interior areas will maintain their respective temperatures through around Monday before the cooling finally arrives with the next storm system on Tuesday.
There is still quite a bit of uncertainty with the track of that system. Models initially had it moving much farther inland but later solutions have trended more to the west. Roughly 20-30% of the current solutions show some light rain chances as early as late Tuesday, but there are just as many solutions holding off until as late Thursday due to the storm tracking even farther off the coast. Either way, there is high confidence in a much cooler pattern by the middle of next week.
15/0212z.
At 00Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor inversion.
High confidence in CAVU TAFs, moderate confidence in winds. Timing and strength of gusty NE winds may be off by 2-3 hours and 10kt respectively.
KLAX, High confidence in CAVU TAF. Any east wind component will be AOB 7 kts 10Z-16Z. Light east winds are again possible by Friday 03Z.
KBUR, High confidence in CAVU TAF. Moderate confidence in winds, and N to NE winds may begin as early as 10Z.
14/216 PM.
Santa Ana Winds will affect our inner waters south of Point Conception Thursday through Saturday morning. Strongest during the late night into early afternoon hours. These hazardous NE-E winds will be focused from Ventura to Santa Monica and out past Anacapa Island. These winds could become hazardous across the San Pedro Channel Friday morning with a 25% chc of 25 kt gusts at Avalon Harbor. The worst conditions are expected Friday morning with the most concern nearshore from Ventura-Malibu. Gale Watches have been issued to target these waters. Refer to MWWLOX for more details. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) may be needed for the nearshore waters along the Central Coast Friday morning due to gusty offshore winds.
There is a solid signal for a trough early to mid next week which could bring hazardous boating conditions along with rain chances to our coastal waters. Will monitor this system.
Long period swells from the west and the south are affecting the coastal waters, and can create a confused sea state. This can make boating more challenging and dangerous, especially for small vessels.
Ca, Wind Advisory in effect from 6 AM Thursday to 8 PM PDT Friday for zones 88-354-355-358-362-370>374-376-377. (See LAXNPWLOX). Heat Advisory in effect from 10 AM Thursday to 8 PM PDT Saturday for zones 340-341-346-347-349-350-354-355-362-366>368. (See LAXNPWLOX). Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Thursday afternoon for zones 354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). High Wind Warning in effect from 6 AM Thursday to 8 PM PDT Friday for zones 369-375-378>380. (See LAXNPWLOX). Red Flag Warning in effect from 6 AM Thursday to 8 PM PDT Saturday for zones 288-354-355-358-362-369>382-548. (See LAXRFWLOX). Red Flag Warning in effect from 3 AM to 6 PM PDT Friday for zones 345-353. (See LAXRFWLOX). PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect from 9 AM to 3 PM PDT Thursday for zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Watch in effect from late Thursday night through Friday afternoon for zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Thursday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
