01/838 PM.
Quiet weather with near seasonal temperatures will prevail through at least Saturday. A cooling trend will begin Sunday and there is a chance of drizzle or light rain showers late Sunday through Monday night. Dry and warmer conditions can be expected starting next Wednesday.
(tdy-Mon), 02/149 AM.
Overall, 00Z models in good synoptic agreement through the period. Main feature of "concern" will be a cutoff low. Models drop the low southward, just off the coast, through Sunday then move it inland over Central California on Monday. This will bring cloudy and unsettled conditions to the area.
Today through Sunday, will expect varying amounts of high clouds drifting overhead as the low spins on it southward trek. Additionally, moderate onshore flow and eddy circulations are expected to allow for a rather extensive marine layer stratus pattern west of the mountains. However, given the warm ocean waters, would not be surprised to see stratus coverage a bit less than currently forecast. High temperatures today will be about 2-6 degrees cooler than Friday with more significant cooling expected for all areas on Sunday. As for winds, the moderate onshore pressure gradients will generate gusty southwesterly winds across interior sections in the afternoon/evening hours, but speeds are expected to remain below advisory levels.
For Sunday night and Monday, there will be the possibility of some light precipitation across the area as the upper low moves inland. At this time, Sunday night looks to be more of a drizzle/marine layer showers situation for areas west of the mountains with significant marine inversion deepening. On Monday, there will be a 15-25% chance of light showers just about anywhere. At this time, precipitation totals, if any, are expected to be very light with amounts under 0.10 inches. Temperatures on Monday will remain quite cool with most areas 6-12 degrees below normal. On Monday, southwesterly winds will be gusty, with advisory-level winds possible across the LA MOuntains and the Antelope Valley.
(Tue-Fri), 02/149 AM.
For the extended, 00Z models continue to exhibit good synoptic agreement.
On Tuesday, the upper low will continue to move eastward into Arizona. With this feature, there may be enough mid-level moisture to generate some scattered light showers, mainly over interior areas. Rainfall amounts, if any, will be very light (on the order of a couple hundredths of an inch). Highs on Tuesday will still remain rather cool, about 5-10 degrees below normal.
For Wednesday through Friday, models develop a weak upper level ridge over the area. This will keep the area dry with mostly clear skies. However, there will continue to be a chance of some coastal stratus/fog during the night and morning hours. Afternoon temperatures will rebound nicely, with widespread 70s and 80s by Thursday and Friday.
02/1118z.
At 0900Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1100 feet deep. The top of the inversion was 3300 ft with a temperature of 19 degrees Celsius.
For the 12Z TAF package, high confidence CAVU conditions for KWJF and KPMD. For coastal and valley sites, moderate confidence in current forecasts as timing of flight category changes could be +/- 3 hours of current forecasts.
KLAX, Moderate confidence in 12Z TAF. Timing of flight category changes could be +/- 3 hours of current forecasts. No significant easterly wind component is expected.
KBUR, Moderate confidence in 12Z TAF. Timing of flight category changes could be +/- 3 hours of current forecasts.
02/149 AM.
For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Monday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels. For Tuesday and Wednesday, there is a 30-50% chance of SCA level winds, especially south of Point Conception.
For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Monday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. For Tuesday and Wednesday, there is a 30-40% chance of SCA level winds in the afternoon and evening hours.
For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Monday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. On Tuesday, there is a 30-50% chance of SCA level winds. On Wednesday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels for most areas except a 20% chance of SCA level winds across the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel.
Ca, NONE. PZ, NONE.
