12/201 AM.
Below normal temperatures prevail through at least Wednesday, with coastal morning clouds and gusty onshore winds. Warming likely to return towards the end of next week.
(tdy-Mon), 12/803 AM.
***UPDATE***
The forecast is well on track with really not much to add this morning. Morning marine layer clouds returned to most of the coastal areas and the cooling trend will continue today.
***From Previous Discussion***
Another sunny day is on tap once the marine layer clouds burn off. High temperatures will continue to decrease across the region by about 5 to 10 degrees again, as well as the tropical moisture decreasing even more.
Fairly quiet next few days. The ridge responsible for this past extreme heat event will continue to flatten out with further cooling expected through at least Sunday, and areas south of Point Concpetion cooling into Tuesday. In general max temps will be below seasonal normals into at least early next week. Maybe more noticeable will be the decreasing humidity and PWATs drop from around 1.5" to 0.75" by tonight.
The one exception to the quiet weather is increasing northwest winds focused over Santa Barbara County and northern LA County. The Santa Barbara County Sundowners will be the strongest of the bunch, and looks to peak this weekend when the SBA-SMX gradient may approach -5 millibars. The Wind Advisory from last night has ended, but will be issuing a fresh Advisory and stretch it out from this evening through Sunday Night. While the western part of the South Coast is certain, there is a moderate risk for winds to reach advisory strength over the eastern Santa Ynez Range. Decided to add them to the Advisory to be on the safe side.
Expecting a more robust marine layer through the weekend. The exceptions being southern Santa Barbara and northern Ventura Counties thanks to the Sundowners, and the Central Coast on Sunday as models show a clearing trend associated with locally moderate offshore flow.
(Tue-Fri), 12/214 AM.
The Sundowner winds that peak over this weekend should weaken heading into Tuesday, which will allow the marine layer to expand and push deeper into the coastal valley areas. Otherwise, little change is expected from Monday through Wednesday with an upper level trough and moderate to strong onshore flow prevailing.
The consensus in models for Thursday through the end of next week is for warming, as high pressure builds in from the southeast and onshore flow weakens. The magnitude of that building high pressure and the offshore trends are still to be settled, which means the magnitude of the warming is uncertain. Temperatures pushing above normal look very likely, with a low but non-zero chance of Heat Hazard-level hotness. Peering down to the south, there are a couple of tropical systems that could provide some moisture, but the signal is weak at this point.
12/0906z.
At 09Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1500 ft deep. The top of the inversion was at 4000 ft with a temperature of 24 Celsius.
High confidence in VFR conditions through at least Sunday at KPMD and KWJF with seasonal winds.
Low clouds have already formed at KSBP KSMX KLGB KLAX. Chances for IFR/LIFR conditions at KPRB (10%) and KSBA (20%). Chances for MVFR/IFR conditions at KOXR (60%), KCMA (50%), KSMO (80%), KBUR (30%), KVNY (30%). Moderate confidence on TAF timing (+/- 3 hours). For Sunday clouds may be less prevalent, with chances for ceilings at KSBP (30%), KSMX (60%), KOXR (20%), KCMA (20%), KSMO (40%), KLAX (60%), KLGB (60%), KBUR (20%).
KLAX, MVFR ceilings will clear by 16-18Z. There is a 20% chance of brief MVFR ceilings 23-02Z). Ceilings likely later tonight into Sunday, but likely forming later.
KBUR, 20-30% chance of brief BKN005-008 forming 12-16Z each morning through Sunday. High confidence in typical winds.
12/750 AM.
For the Outer Waters, high confidence in current forecast. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds today will increase to GALE force this evening and continue at GALE levels through Sunday night. For Monday and Tuesday, winds will back down to SCA levels with winds dropping below SCA levels on Wednesday.
For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, high confidence in current forecast. Today through Monday, SCA level winds can be expected in the afternoon and evening hours. For Tuesday and Wednesday, winds and seas will remain below SCA levels.
For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, high confidence in current forecast. For a majority of the southern Inner Waters, winds and seas will remain below SCA levels through Wednesday. The only exception will be the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel where SCA level winds can be expected today through Monday, mainly in the late afternoon and evening hours.
There is a low but present risk for dense fog over the Central Coast waters today, with the risk decrease Sunday.
Ca, Wind Advisory in effect from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM PDT Monday for zones 349-351-352. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect from noon today to 9 PM PDT this evening for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Sunday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 6 PM PDT this evening for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM PDT Monday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
