04/1213 PM.
Onshore flow will continue to bring low clouds to the coasts and coastal valleys each night through morning. The onshore flow will start to weaken Monday and cause decreasing clouds in the valleys and gradually warming temperatures. Expect a return to above normal temperatures early next week.
(tdy-Mon), 04/1224 PM.
Lots of mid/high level clouds can be seen on satellite imagery streaming across the region. This is associated with some sub- tropical moisture that is lifting northeast across southern California this afternoon. While not likely, some of the meso- scale models are initiating a few light showers/weak thunderstorms into the evening/early overnight hours, and have a 5-10 percent pop in the forecast to cover this possibility. This cloud cover has also helped to disrupt the marine layer this morning, although a return of the marine layer to at least the immediate coast and coastal valleys is anticipated for Sunday morning.
With a lessening extent of the marine layer expected each morning along with increasing heights aloft, afternoon temperatures will continue to warm each afternoon, with above normal temperatures, from near 80 along the coasts to near 100 across the inland valleys, returning by Monday or Tuesday afternoon.
(Tue-Fri), 04/1224 PM.
Above normal temperatures and dry weather are anticipated through the extended periods as high pressure strengthens aloft helping to aid in a continued warming trend across the region.
At this point, the upper level ridge looks to be centered across southern California over the Wednesday/Thursday time period, when afternoon temperatures should peak. The ridge is then expected to shift north and east by the end of the week and over next weekend, providing some minor relief to end the week. That said, temperatures are still expected to remain well above average to end the current forecast period, and likely beyond - with CPC outlooks continuing to favor above normal temperatures through at least week 2.
Given the anticipated warm up, there will be at least a minor to moderate heat risk each day, with about a 70% chance that heat advisories will eventually become necessary Tuesday-Thursday across mainly inland areas including the San Fernando and Santa Clarita valleys.
Finally, an increased surface pressure gradient early next week will also likely result in a return to modest sundowner winds both Tuesday and Wednesday nights.
04/1733z.
At 1620Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1000 ft deep. The top of inversion was at 2900 feet with a temperature of 22 C.
High confidence in VFR TAFs for desert airfields (KWJF & KPMD).
Low to moderate confidence in remainder of TAFs. Timing of flight cat changes may be off by +/- 2 hours and CIG heights +/- 300 ft. There is a non-zero chance of a thunderstorm for KLAX, KBUR, KVNY KSMO, & KLGB from noon Today through this evening.
KLAX, Moderate confidence in TAF. VFR conditions with widespread high clouds BKN100-150 through 05/06Z-07Z. Arrival and clearing times of 008-010 CIGs may be off +/- 3 hours. There is a non-zero chance of a thunderstorm from Noon Today thru early this evening. No significant easterly wind component expected.
KBUR, Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 15% chance of BKN005-010 05/11Z-15Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions with no wind issues are expected.
04/714 AM.
For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence remains for the current forecast. High confidence in winds and seas remaining below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels through Sunday morning. For Sunday afternoon through Thursday, there is a 50-80% chance of SCA level winds. Seas will begin gradually increasing Sunday and will reach advisory levels mid-week. There may be a shower or two across the northern waters this evening.
For the Inner Water north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels through Monday morning. There is a 40% chance of SCA level winds on Monday, 70% chance Tuesday & Wednesday, and a 60% chance on Thursday. Seas will begin gradually increasing Sunday and will near advisory levels mid- week.
For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. High confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels through Saturday. From Sunday through Wednesday, there is a 50-80% chance of SCA level winds across the western portion of the Santa Barbara Channel. Local gusts could approach 21 kts during the late afternoon through evening hours near Point Dume and across the San Pedro Channel.
Ca, NONE. PZ, NONE.
