31/932 AM.
Very warm conditions will continue through the weekend, with high temperatures 10 to 20 degrees above normal. Cooling with dense fog near the coast will bring a brief break around Monday, with warming again starting Tuesday. Locally breezy Santa Ana winds are expected today Saturday, and again Tuesday through Thursday of next week.
(tdy-Mon), 31/228 AM.
Weak to locally moderate Santa Ana winds will continue through early Sunday. Fairly safe to say that winds peaked on Thursday and Friday and while they will remain locall gusty, they should stay below Wind Advisory coverage and thresholds. Temperatures will remain 10+ degrees above normal through Saturday or Sunday thanks to this offshore flow and high pressure aloft. The combination of temperatures dropping a degree or two and the calendar day records being a little higher, records look safe through the weekend. Overnight temperatures will generally remain mild and a source of relief from the warm days, thanks to the very dry airmass and clear skies. Some of the persistently windy areas however will see lows on the warmer side of the 60s.
High pressure aloft will weaken Sunday and Monday while offshore pressure gradients and winds turn near neutral. This will cause temperatures to drop a few degrees but all areas will remain well above normal (highs in the 70s common). The only wrinkle in that story is the growing chance of some offshore winds reforming on Monday over the Central Coast which might minimize that cooling trend up there. Dense fog with very low visibility is likely to impact some coastal areas as early as Sunday, but more so on Monday as a coastal eddy forms south of Point Conception.
(Tue-Fri), 31/228 AM.
The onshore and cooling trend from Sunday to Monday will reverse course on Tuesday and Wednesday as moderate offshore flow and high pressure aloft returns. As a result, look for gusty northeast winds over the wind prone areas of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties later Tuesday through Thursday with a few Wind Advisories likely. Temperatures will climb back into the upper 70s and 80s by Wednesday. A cooling trend remains favorable in the majority of the ensemble solutions by Friday or Saturday and high pressure aloft and offshore flow weakens. There remains a spread however in the magnitude of that shift.
There are no rain chances through Friday February 6. Chances increase a little after that, peaking in the February 9th through 14th window at about 50 percent. The vast majority of the ensemble solutions that show rain have light amounts, with a slim minority showing more significant amounts.
31/1721z.
At 1600Z at KLAX, there was a surface-based inversion. The top of the inversion was 1400 feet with a temperature of 22 degrees Celsius.
For 18Z TAF package, high confidence in CAVU conditions for all sites. There will be a 10-20% chance of MVFR VSBYs at KPRB 11Z-17Z and a 10% chance of LIFR/VLIFR CIGs/VSBYs at KSMX 10Z-17Z.
Continued offshore flow will generate light LLWS and turbulence across the foothills and mountains through the period.
KLAX, High confidence in 18Z TAF as CAVU conditions are expected through the period. Northeasterly wind to 7 knots will continue thru 20Z.
KBUR, High confidence in 18Z TAF as CAVU conditions are expected through the period.
31/919 AM.
For the Outer Waters, high confidence in current forecast. Today through Sunday morning, winds and seas will remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels. From Sunday afternoon through Monday night, a combination of SCA level winds and seas is expected. For Tuesday through Wednesday, winds and seas will drop below SCA levels.
For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Sunday morning, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. From Sunday afternoon through Monday night, high confidence in a combination of SCA level winds and seas. For Tuesday through Wednesday, there is a 20-30% chance of SCA level northeast winds.
For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. From Ventura south to Santa Monica, there is a 20-30% chance of SCA level northeast winds this morning, and a 40-50% chance of SCA level northeast winds again Tuesday night and Wednesday. Otherwise, winds and seas will remain below SCA levels through Wednesday.
Ca, NONE. PZ, NONE.
