02/144 AM.
A major and long lasting heat wave will begin today and last through all of next week with dangerously hot temperatures. Coastal clouds and fog are expected this morning and tonight into Saturday morning, with dense fog possible at times.
(tdy-Mon), 02/149 PM.
The heat arrived in LA County today and actually exceeded expectations in and around the Downtown area where highs reached 102 as of 12:50pm, which not only matched the expected forecast for Saturday, but also broke the daily record. And 102 may not be the end of today's warm up there. The same exact situation happened at LGB as well. Outside of the LA Metro area, temperatures were about as expected with Woodland Hills at 103 and likely heading to a high around 105-107 so and Burbank in the 100-102 range.
For most LA areas today was the primary heating day with just minor fluctuations through next week, meaning a very hot next several days but minimal day to day changes. Coastal areas will likely get a little bump up Saturday with a very slight increase in offshore influence. For the rest of the 4 county area expecting 5-15 degrees of additional warming Saturday. After that, like LA County just small daily adjustments but overall very little change in this hot pattern. Heat advisories will go into effect for SLO and northern Santa Barbara Counties Saturday and Sunday. Based on the latest forecast trends that advisory will likely need to be extended at least another day or two.
(Tue-Fri), 02/145 PM.
Monday into the rest of the week will feel a lot like this coming weekend, with ongoing offshore winds and persistent high pressure. Will likely see some fluctuations in temperatures as the offshore gradient weakens a bit early in the week, though there are still some model solutions indicating a little more upper level northeast wind support and subsequently even hotter temperatures around Wednesday into Friday, leading to breaking daily high temperature records. Further out, models indicate tropical moisture along with an upper level trough could lead to cooling temperatures by the following weekend.
02/1634z.
At 16Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer. There was a surfaced based inversion with a top at 1700 ft and a temperature of 30 C.
High confidence in VFR TAFs for all sites expect for KSMX, KSBA, & KSBP. Chance for low clouds (LIFR or lower): KSMX (60%), KSBA (20%), & KSBP (20%). No wind issues expected.
KLAX, High confidence in VFR TAF. Good confidence that any east wind component remains below 8 kts.
KBUR, High confidence in the VFR TAF. No wind issues expected.
02/1259 PM.
Generally quiet conditions expected across the coastal waters through the forecast period. Localized Small Craft Advisory (SCA) gusts may occur each afternoon and evening near Point Conception, off the coast of Point Dume, and across the San Pedro Channel.
02/1259 PM.
While we will get a break from the coastal flooding concerns for the rest of the week, another hurricane swell (from Rachel) will likely bring a larger-than-Polo south swell to southern California for much of the coming work week. The window of most concern is Tuesday through Friday. Elevated surf up to 5-6 ft is likely with a lower chance of high surf 7ft or higher across exposed south facing beaches. High tides of 6.5-7.0 ft are expected. Unlike previous events, morning and evening tides will be similar. Initially, the swell will have a more SE direction (150-160) targeting areas like Long Beach Tuesday and Wednesday. As Rachel moves westward, the swell direction will become more southerly (170-190) Thursday and Friday targeting areas like Zuma. There is a high risk for Beach Hazard Statements and a moderate risk for Coastal Flood Advisories along the LA/VTA coastline. Stay tuned for future updates.
Ca, Extreme Heat Warning in effect until 8 PM PDT Thursday for zones 38-87-88-349>358-362-366>375-548-550. (See LAXNPWLOX). Heat Advisory in effect from 10 AM Saturday to 8 PM PDT Sunday for zones 341>345-347-348. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ, NONE.
