02/1120 AM.
Onshore flow will continue to bring low clouds to the coasts and coastal valleys each night and morning. Weaker onshore flow will mean decreasing clouds in the valleys and gradually warming temperatures. Expect a return to near-normal temperatures by middle of next week with 80s and low 90s for many valley locations by that time.
(tdy-Sun), 02/1117 AM.
Low clouds, localized fog, and very light drizzle remain possible each morning as the marine layer returns each evening through morning along the coast and coastal valleys.
Onshore flow will begin to weaken today as pressure heights rise over the next several days. This will mean a thinning marine layer and a very gradual warming trend throughout the duration of the forecast period. Daytime temperatures will still remain below normal over the course of the weekend but will return to normal during the extended period (more on that below). Expect breezy winds across the Antelope Valley daily generally up to 35 mph, as well as breezy offshore sundowner winds in the Santa Barbara area ranging 25 to 35 mph.
(Mon-Thu), 02/1214 PM.
Temperatures will continue to trend warmer during the extended timeframe due to rising pressure heights, weaker onshore flow and a resultant thinner marine layer. 500 mb ensembles suggest that high pressure will strengthen and take firm hold of our weather pattern come later next week. While temperatures will largely still be near to below normal heading into next week, valley temperatures will warm into 80s and low 90s throughout the week. There is approximately a 50 to 60 percent chance that coastal locations, such as Santa Barbara, will warm to around or just above normal by Wednesday. If heat risk becomes a concern, it will be around this timeframe as there is little to no concern of heat risk prior to the middle to end of next week.
02/1721z.
At 1630Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 3300 feet deep. The top of the inversion was 4800 feet with a temperature of 17 degrees Celsius.
For 18Z TAF package, high confidence in KWJF and KPMD.
For all other sites, moderate confidence in 18Z TAFs. Timing of flight category changes could be up to +/- 2 hours. CIGs may be +/- 500 feet of current forecasts.
KLAX, Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. Timing of flight category changes could be +/- 2 hours of current forecasts. There is a 30% chance that IFR level CIGs could develop 08Z-16Z. No significant easterly wind component is expected.
KBUR, Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. Timing of flight category changes could be +/- 2 hours of current forecasts.
02/1149 AM.
For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Saturday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels. For Sunday through Tuesday, there is a 50-70% chance of SCA level winds.
For the Inner Water north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Sunday, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels. On Monday and Tuesday, there is a 30-50% chance of SCA level winds in the afternoon and evening hours.
For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Tuesday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels for most of the southern Inner Waters. The only exception will be the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel where there is a 40-60% chance of SCA level Sunday through Tuesday, mainly in the late afternoon and evening hours.
Ca, NONE. PZ, NONE.
