01/1141 PM.
Warm and dry conditions can be expected through most of this week. There will be some coastal low clouds and fog at times, but otherwise skies will remain mostly clear. There will be gusty onshore winds and some sundowners through most of the week.
(tdy-Thu), 02/825 AM.
***UPDATE***
Latest satellite and surface observations indicate partly to mostly cloudy skies across the area with a mix of high clouds and marine layer stratus. Current sounding data indicates marine inversion around 2200 feet deep. No significant winds are currently observed.
Forecast-wise for the immediate short term, no issues are expected with typical June conditions. Current extensive stratus will gradually dissipate through morning, leaving mostly sunny skies in its wake. Based on morning TEMP STUDY data, today looks to be a few degrees cooler across most areas with stronger onshore gradients, extensive marine influence and some lowering thicknesses. Finally with respect to winds, typical southwesterly winds will prevail this afternoon although there will be some increase in northerly winds across the Santa Ynez Range this evening. However, no advisory-level winds are expected.
Overall, current forecast has good handle on the immediate short term. So, no significant updates are expected.
***From Previous Discussion***
A weak eddy, onshore flow and cyclonic turning aloft have all teamed up to produce a typical June day. There will be morning low clouds across all of the csts and most vlys. While skies will be sunny by afternoon the coastal clearing will not come until late morning. The deep and more persistent marine layer and strong onshore flow in the afternoon will cool most of the csts and vlys by 3 to 6 degrees. Max temps will end up 2 to 4 degrees blo normal across the csts/vlys.
A ridge will nose into the state from the west on Wednesday. The northerly flow coming off of the top of it will create northerly winds across the interior. An eddy and onshore flow at the sfc will bring another round of low clouds to the csts and vlys. The northerly push will filter down from the mtns and bring quicker clearing to the csts/vlys. All areas are forecast to warm 3 to 5 degrees from a combination of rising hgts, subsidence, and more sunshine. The only question mark with the temp forecast is the near shore area which may see little or no warming due to a strong sea breeze.
Stronger north flow will develop Wednesday evening and overnight. Advisory level gusts are likely across the western SBA south coast and the I-5 corridor. An eddy will bring low clouds to the csts (the SBA south coast will stay clear due to the sundowner winds) but the north winds should keep the low clouds out of the vlys.
Once again the northerly push will bring quicker than normal clearing Thursday morning. Most temps will be similar to Wednesday's except across the SBA south coast and the San Gabriel Vly where downsloping winds will bring about 6 degrees of warming.
(Fri-Mon), 02/1221 AM.
Friday looks like a gloomy day. The ridge will weaken and the northerly flow will subside. An eddy will continue. This should bring low clouds to the csts and most vlys. The onshore push to the east and north will be between 5 and 8 mb which is strong enough to keep many beaches in the clouds all day long. Most max temps will fall by 2 to 4 degrees. Even with the cooling max temps will remain a couple degrees above normal (except for the Central Coast which will end up 2 or 3 degrees blo normal)
Large scale troffing moves in over the weekend and continues into early next week. At the sfc mdt-stg onshore flow will persist esp to the east and in the afternoons. Look for plenty of marine layer stratus in the mornings across the csts and many vlys. The nearshore areas will have slow clearing and some beaches will not see the Sun. There will be stronger than normal seabreezes as well as gusty westerly winds across the Antelope Vly.
2 to 4 degrees of cooling will be followed by 1 to 2 degrees of additional cooling Sunday/ This will make Sunday the coolest day of the next 7 with max temps only in the upper 60s and 70s across the csts/vlys or 2 to 5 degrees blo normal. There will be a little warming on Monday as the trof weakens and the onshore push relaxes a touch.
02/1756z.
At 1653Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 2500 feet deep. The top of the inversion was near 4200 feet with a temperature of 18 C.
High confidence in VFR TAFs for KPMD, KWJF, and KPRB.
Moderate confidence in remaining TAFs. Timing of CIG/VSBY restrictions may be off +/- 2 hours and flight minimums by one category.
KLAX, Moderate confidence in TAF. Clearing of MVFR CIGs 015 most likely between 02/1930-2030Z. Thereafter, arrival and clearing CIGs 010-015 should be accurate within +/- 2 hours of current forecast. IFR CIGs as low as 007 is possible roughly 04/04-10Z. No significant east wind component expected.
KBUR, Moderate confidence in TAF. There is 30% chc of LIFR CIGs 004 when stratus arrives. No wind issues expected.
02/738 AM.
For the Outer Waters from the Central Coast to San Nicolas Island, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Generally expecting conditions to stay below hazardous levels through this morning. SCA winds are expected to return this afternoon, with a 60-80% chance of Gale force winds peaking Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning. There is a 30-40% chance that Gales may linger Thursday afternoon through Saturday, otherwise SCA winds will persist through the forecast period. Seas are expected to build to 10 to 12 feet Wednesday night and will likely persist through the weekend.
For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Local gusts of 20-25 kt is possible later this afternoon into the evening hours across the northern portion. Winds will increase to SCA levels early Wednesday afternoon, with a 30-50% chance of Gales Wednesday afternoon/evening into late night hours. Otherwise, SCA winds are likely to persist through Thursday night. After decreasing some Friday, winds may increase to SCA levels again Saturday.
For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. There is a 50-70 percent chance of SCA winds today in the late afternoon and evening and again during the same time frame Wednesday and Thursday across the western portion of the Santa Barbara Channel.
Ca, NONE. PZ, Gale Watch in effect from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT this evening for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 PM PDT Wednesday for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Watch in effect from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 PM PDT Wednesday for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Watch in effect from Wednesday evening through Thursday morning for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
