12/537 PM.
Gusty Santa Ana winds will continue through this week, with abnormally warm and dry conditions. A trend towards more typical weather conditions is expected early next week.
(Mon-Thu), 12/805 PM.
***UPDATE***
Temperatures were typical for a Santa Ana/offshore wind pattern, varying across the region with warmer highs in the 70s to near 80 degrees near the coasts and cooler 50s and 60s for the interior. Winds of 25 to 40 mph were common through portions of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties, peaking at 74 mph for Magic Mountain Truck Trail in the San Gabriel mountains this morning. Since then, winds have weakened over the lower terrain, with gusts limited to the mountains this evening. However, good confidence in another few rounds of gusty Santa Ana winds Tuesday morning and Wednesday morning.
High pressure builds over the area over the next few days, with 500 mb heights peaking around 587 dam on Wednesday. Expecting warm high temperatures, especially for the coasts and coastal valleys as a result of the ongoing offshore winds and the warmer airmass in place. Current forecast looks on track, but will need to watch the wind forecast over the Santa Lucia mountains as a wind advisory may be needed for Tuesday and Wednesday mornings.
***From Previous Discussion***
Northeast winds will continue to dominate the weather through the week, with building high pressure aloft. While there will likely be some nominal day-to-day changes, the overall experience of the week will be the same each day thanks to a west-to-east pressure gradient that will not chance much at all (LAX-DAG peaking around -5 millibars each day), the overall experience of this week will be the same. In other words, if it was windy today, expect it to be similarly windy all week, and if it wasn't windy, expect more of the same. Extended all the Wind Advisories through Wednesday as a result, and future extensions are likely.
Daytime temperatures will warm up a bit Tuesday and Wednesday, with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s common on the coastal side of the mountains. Records for this week are high however, so the chance for broken records are quite small. The chance for any Heat Advisories is also small. Overnight temperatures will be a big mixed bag, with those areas that have even a little bit of the breeze seeing elevated low temperature in the mid 50s to mid 60s. With the dry airmass, those areas that stay calm will be quite cold, with 30s to lower 40s common, which in some areas might be just a few miles away from those warmer spots.
(Fri-Mon), 12/205 PM.
Computer projections are showing shortwave trough pushing through Idaho on Thursday, which should enhance our seemingly-never-ending offshore flow a touch for Friday and maybe Saturday. This means more of the same to close this week (see previous section above).
There is a broad consensus with all the ensembles that a change will finally come as early as Sunday (Jan 18) of next week or as late as Tuesday (Jan 20). Looking for a return to onshore flow, coastal low clouds and fog, and around normal temperatures. Further out, roughly a third of the projections so signals for light to moderate rain for the end of next week. This is far from certain, and not even the most likely outcome, but there is at least some rain chances to mention.
13/0544z.
At 0500Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor an inversion. Overall, moderate confidence in 06Z TAF. VFR conditions to dominate the period. Moderate confidence in winds for KOXR, KCMA, KVNY, and KBUR (wind gusts +/- 10kt from fcst), elsewhere high confidence.
Gusty NE winds with LLWS and light to moderate turbulence is likely over and near mountainous terrain, focused across Los Angeles and Ventura counties. Additionally, most likely during overnight through morning timeframe.
KLAX, High confidence in TAF. VFR conditions thru forecast pd. No significant east wind component expected
KBUR, High confidence in TAF. VFR conditions thru forecast pd. Best chc (15%) for NE winds gusts 15-20kt to sfc after 00Z Wed. Light to moderate turbulence and LLWS likely through the period.
12/829 PM.
Gusty northeast winds will continue nearshore across portions of the Ventura, Los Angeles, and Orange County coasts through the week. Winds are expected to be slightly weaker the next couple of days. There is a moderate chance (30-40%) that a Small Craft Advisories (SCA) will be needed for the nearshore waters between Point Mugu and Point Dume early Tuesday morning thru early Tuesday afternoon. However, winds (15-25 knots) will be focused in a narrow corridor out to Santa Cruz Island. A SCA was not issued since most of the zone will not experience these conditions. Winds will likely increase slightly towards the latter half of the week. There is a low chance (20%) for NE wind gusts of 20-25 knots to impact Avalon and Two Harbors over the next few days, but chances will increase to moderate (30-50%) early Thursday through Saturday morning.
Slightly weaker northeast winds will also surface near Cayucos and Morro Bay along the Central Coast through this week.
Winds will create choppy seas, especially at their peak magnitude in the early morning to early afternoon hours.
Elsewhere, conditions will be relatively calm this week, although seas of 9-11 feet will be common through tonight across the northern Outer Waters.
Ca, Wind Advisory remains in effect until 2 PM PST Wednesday for zones 88-354-355-358-362-369>372-374>376-378-379. (See LAXNPWLOX). High Surf Advisory in effect until 9 AM PST Tuesday for zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect until 2 PM PST Wednesday for zones 355-362. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ, NONE.
