23/524 AM.
A relatively quiet Friday will transition into a weak Santa Ana Wind event this weekend, bringing drier conditions and warmer temperatures to the region into next week.
(tdy-Mon), 23/112 PM.
Typical post-storm northwest flow has developed following the passing of the storm which generally isn't favorable for precip due to the Transverse ranges, except for the north facing mountains. However, can't rule out a stray light shower just about anywhere through the afternoon.
Otherwise, a return to dry and warmer weather is expected over the coming days. Pressure gradients have already started to trend towards offshore and forecast pressure gradients have been pretty steady peaking around -3mb. Wind support aloft has increased slightly over the last few model cycles but remains pretty marginal overall at around 30-35kt. This would typically result in peak wind gusts in the mountains around 35-45 mph and 25-35 mph in the LA/Ventura Valleys which is not quite worthy of a wind advisory. Temps will get a boost though with the downsloping off the mountains with highs returning to the 80s in the valleys and mid 70s to low 80s most everywhere else through at least early next week. Winds will peak Fri/Sat then weaken thereafter.
(Tue-Fri), 23/129 PM.
A slow cooling trend is expected to begin around next Tuesday as an upper level low drops out of the Pac NW. This will begin the turn back towards onshore flow and in turn slowly cooling temperatures through the end of the week. It still looks favorable for rain to return to southern California late next week with the most likely day being next Saturday (Halloween) or Sunday.
23/1712z.
At 1633Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor an inversion.
Generally high confidence in VFR TAFs, with very brief MVFR cigs possible at times for all sites except for KWJF/KPMD through this tonight. 10% chance for -SHRA at KBUR/KVNY through this evening, 5% chance for remaining LA County sites.
KLAX, High confidence in TAF. VFR conds expected with brief periods of MVFR cigs possible through tonight. 5% chance of brief -SHRA through this evening. Good confidence that any east wind component remains below 8 kt.
KBUR, High confidence in TAF. VFR conds expected with brief periods of MVFR cigs possible through tonight. 10% chance of brief -SHRA through this evening.
23/1254 PM.
Gusty west to northwest Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds will impact most of the waters today through tonight, including the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel, potentially extending into the eastern portion as well. Localized gusts to 35 kt may occur across portions of the outer waters during this time frame. Seas near 10 feet will continue through late tonight across portions of the outer waters. Otherwise, relatively quiet conditions are expected through the weekend except for localized SCA northeast wind gusts nearshore from Point Mugu through the Malibu coast in the morning hours Saturday & Sunday.
Northwest winds will increase next week, with around a 50% chance of SCA level winds Monday through at least mid-week.
23/1254 PM.
Very high tides between 7.5 and at least 8.0 feet (roughly 1.1-1.5 feet above astronomical predictions) are expected during the morning hours of Sunday- Thursday from Los Angeles (highest tides) north to the Central Coast. Due to the very high tides, moderate coastal flooding impacts can be expected at any low lying beach areas, not just south facing beaches as has been the case the last couple of months.
While we generally aren't seeing much in the way of any significant swells during this period, there is a small potential for a slightly larger, long period swell from the south direction Wednesday-Thursday that could create enough energy to produce some more impactful coastal flooding.
Coastal Flood Advisories are in effect Sunday-Thursday. There is a low potential for targeted Coastal Flooding Warnings if a larger swell develops and produces elevated surf on top of the very high tides.
Potential Impacts: -Minor to moderate flooding of sea water is likely over vulnerable low-lying coastal areas including over beach parking lots, bike paths, normally sandy beaches, and harbor walkways. -Moderate to significant beach erosion is likely. -Isolated damage of structures due to sea water inundation is possible.
Ca, Coastal Flood Advisory in effect from 5 AM Sunday to 1 PM PDT Thursday for zones 340-346-349-350-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Saturday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
