07/218 AM.
A warming trend will continue into early next week. Temperatures will reach the mid 70s to 80s across much of the region through Friday, warming to the 80s and 90s over the weekend through Tuesday. There is a chance for 100 degree readings in the warmest valleys on Mothers Day and Monday.
(tdy-Sat), 07/309 AM.
High pressure will continue to build across the West coast, giving us a little preview of summer over the next several days. However, for today and likely tomorrow there is still a marine layer in place, though most of the low clouds and fog this morning are north of Pt Conception. Temperatures will warm 4-8 degrees today then another few degrees Friday and Saturday pushing inland valleys and the western portion of the San Fernando Valley into the low to mid 90s. By then highs will be running 6-12 degrees above normal. Not quite warm enough for any heat hazards yet. There will be some gusty north winds across southwest Santa Barbara County this evening and a wind advisory will be in effect. Breezy there again Friday evening but north flow is expected to be a little weaker.
(Sun-Wed), 07/311 AM.
Sunday (Mother's Day) and Monday are expected to be the warmest days, coinciding with the peak of the high pressure aloft as well as the weakest onshore flow. The gradients will ultimately be the deciding factor with temperatures. As it stands now, most of the ensemble solutions just barely show gradients going negative to the east and north and if this holds then there should be enough of a sea breeze to hold valley highs in the mid 90s and coastal areas mostly in the 70s to lower 80s. These temps would likely not require any heat hazards. However, 15-20% of the solutions are showing offshore flow close to -3mb which would further delay the sea breeze and could tip the scales towards some low end heat advisories across some of the valleys.
A slow cooling trend is expected to begin Tuesday, but above normal temperatures are expected at least through the middle of next week.
07/1022z.
At 10Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1200 ft deep. The top of the inversion was around 4500 ft with a temperature of 17 C.
High confidence in 00Z TAFs for KPMD and KWJF, and valley sites. Moderate to low confidence in remaining sites due to uncertainty in marine layer clouds. LIFR CIGs at KSMX and KSBP will clear around 15Z. There is a 20% chance for brief cigs at KLGB and KLAX.
KLAX, Moderate confidence in TAF. 20% chance CIGs around BKN006 from 12Z-17Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected. No significant east wind component expected.
KBUR, High confidence in TAF. VFR conditions with no wind issues are expected.
06/1021 PM.
SCA level NW winds are expected to strengthen each day through Saturday for the outer waters. Winds may approach Gale Force Friday, with a better chance (30%) for Gale Force winds Saturday afternoon and evening. SCA level winds are also likely during the evening hours across the nearshore waters along the Central coast and into at least western portions of the Santa Barbara Channel and near the Channel Islands through Saturday.
Short period seas will build during this timeframe especially across the outer waters - reaching around 10 feet Friday through Saturday night.
Winds and seas should diminish throughout the day on Sunday. By Monday, conditions should be much calmer and likely below SCA levels.
Ca, NONE. PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
