20/1227 PM.
A cooling trend will begin in most areas Thursday as onshore flow returns and strengthens into the weekend. Night and morning low clouds and fog will return to coastal areas and eventually the valleys. By the weekend temperatures will generally within a few degrees of normal, and next week they will be 5 to 10 degrees below normal.
(tdy-Sat), 20/1219 PM.
A weak upper level trough will be moving over the area tonight and Thursday which will start the trend towards onshore flow and cooler temperatures. Coastal areas will notice this the most on Thursday but even the valleys will be at least a few degrees cooler than today. Only the far interior areas will maintain today's temps one more day before the cooler air reaches them on Friday. Overall, getting back to pretty typical weather for May. Low clouds and fog will be returning to the Central Coast tonight and likely to coastal areas south of Pt Conception by Friday and probably getting into the valleys by the weekend and becoming a daily feature through next week. Models have backed off the forecasts of increasing northerly flow across southwest Santa Barbara County so for the time being not expecting any significant Sundowners through at least the weekend.
(Sun-Wed), 20/229 AM.
Very May like weather will be the norm for the 4 day xtnd period. Saggy-baggy troffing will cover most of the state through the period. At the sfc there will be moderate to strong onshore flow to the east and weak to moderate onshore flow to the north. There will be a good dose of night through morning low clouds across most of the coast and many vly areas every day. Due to the strength of the onshore flow some beaches may not clear at all.
The strong onshore flow in the afternoon will generate stronger than normal sea breezes as well as gusty west winds in the Antelope Vly. Additionally the western portion of the SBA south coast will see varying degrees of north winds each evening.
Most areas will cool 1 or 2 degrees each day except perhaps 2 to 4 degrees on Tuesday. Most csts will see max temps in the mid 60s to mid 70s each day with upper 70s to lower 80s in the vlys. Max temps will mostly end up a few degrees below normal across the csts/vlys and the mtns and far interior will end up a few degrees over normal.
20/1734z.
At 1722Z at KLAX, there was a shallow marine layer at 400 ft. The inversion had a top of 2200 ft with a temperature of 22 C.
High confidence in CAVU TAFs for KPRB, KBUR, KVNY, KPMD, and KWJF. There is a 20% chance of 5SM FU at KVNY.
High confidence in no major wind impacts, but low confidence in arrival of low clouds, flight cats, and timing over night. There is a chance for low clouds at all coastal sites, highest at KSMX. At KSMX/KSBP, there is a 30% chance for VLIFR/LIFR conds when cigs are present. Timing of cig arrival
KLAX, Moderate confidence in winds, but low confidence in minimum flight cat for TAF. 40% chance for no low clouds, but if they arrive timing may be any time from 10Z-14Z. Low confidence in min flight cat, but 30% chance for 1SM-3SM vsbys and/or cigs OVC002-004. Good confidence that any east wind component will be AOB 6kt.
KBUR, High confidence in CAVU TAF. No wind issues expected.
20/106 PM.
Moderate confidence in marginal Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds across much of the waters this afternoon through tonight, with wind gusts 15-25 kt common. Then Thursday through the weekend, northwest winds and wave heights are expected to remain below SCA levels, except for localized gusts to 20-25 kt in the afternoon and evening hours near Point Conception and the western Channel Islands, as well as the San Pedro Channel on Sunday. Northwest winds are expected to increase to SCA levels early next week.
Ca, NONE. PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Thursday for zones 650-670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
