12/1253 PM.
Rain is expected in most areas tonight and off and on through early Saturday morning. Dry weather is expected the rest of the weekend. Additional rain is likely on Monday and again next Thursday. High temperatures will be mostly in the 60s, except 40s and 50s in the mountains.
(Thu-Sun), 12/125 PM.
Temperatures tumbled today as expected with the storm approaching and onshore flow returning to the area. Most areas were down around 10 degrees.
The next storm is moving this way from the southwest and should start dropping some light rain possibly as early as 10pm in SLO and Santa Barbara counties, but more likely after midnight. Showers will spread over the rest of the area later on tonight into Friday morning. The rest of Friday will be a mix of clouds and an isolated shower or two but dry in many areas. Most areas expected to get around a half inch of rain with this first system, possibly as high as 0.75" in areas where the intensity of the showers are higher, especially in the Santa Barbara and Ventura Mountains. Rain rates should remain below 0.25/hr in most areas but isolated 0.50" rates are possible.
The main cold front from this system is expected to arrive on the Central Coast Friday afternoon and evening along the Central Coast and between 8pm Fri and 3am Sat for Ventura and LA Counties. Models continue to indicate similar rain rates and amounts as the previous rain Thursday night. Overall, most if not all areas will experience a beneficial rain with totals under an inch. Little to no snow with either of these system as snow levels will be at or above 8000 feet.
Saturday (after sunrise) and Sunday are expected to be dry with highs in the 60s to lower 70s.
(Mon-Thu), 12/138 PM.
Next week there are at least two additional storms that are expected to move through the area, Monday and late Wednesday or early Thursday, though at this time both of those are weaker than the storms this week, so again looking for at most another beneficial rain for the area and continued below normal temperatures by 5-10 degrees. The Monday storm is a little cooler and could drop some light snow accumulations above 5500 feet.
13/0522z.
At 0515Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer and no marine inversion.
For 06Z TAF package, moderate confidence in current forecasts. Overnight, a shower threat will continue with a 50% chance of MVFR CIGs associated with the shower activity and timing of showers could be +/- 3 hours of current forecasts.
There is a 15% chance of thunderstorms, mainly south of Point Conception 06Z-18Z.
KLAX, Moderate confidence in 06Z TAF. There is a 50% chance of MVFR CIGs 08Z-18Z. Timing of showers could be +/- 3 hours of current forecasts. There is a 15% chance of TSRA 06Z-18Z. Any easterly wind component is expected to remain below 8 knots.
KBUR, Moderate confidence in 06Z TAF. There is a 50% chance of MVFR CIGs 08Z-18Z. Timing of showers could be +/- 3 hours of current forecasts. There is a 15% chance of TSRA 06Z-18Z.
12/649 PM.
For the Outer Waters, high confidence in current forecast. Today through Tuesday, a combination of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas is expected. Winds look to peak on Friday and Saturday, then again on Monday. Dangerously large seas are expected to peak on Saturday (18-24 feet) with a secondary peak expected on Monday (12-18 feet).
For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, high confidence in current forecast. Tonight through Tuesday, a combination of SCA level winds and seas are expected. Winds look to peak on Friday, then again on Monday. Dangerously large seas are expected to peak on Saturday (14-20 feet) with a secondary peak on Monday (11-15 feet).
For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. For Friday through Saturday, low-end SCA winds associated with the frontal passage is likely. Also, SCA seas are likely on Saturday across western portion of the Santa Barbara Channel. On Sunday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. On Monday, there is a 60-80% chance of SCA level winds.
With the expected large west-northwesterly swell this weekend, there is the threat of dangerous breaking waves at Ventura and especially Morro Bay harbor entrances.
Periodic rain can be expected tonight through at least Monday. There is a slight chance of thunderstorms tonight through Friday morning (13th) for the waters south and west of Los Angeles County.
12/655 PM.
A series of very large, long period west-northwesterly swells will impact the coastline of southwest California through at least Tuesday of next week, creating large surf and dangerous conditions at all coasts. Largest surf will be focused along west to northwest facing shores and surf is expected to peak on Saturday, with a potential secondary increase Monday. Moderate to significant beach erosion and shallow flooding of sea water over low-lying beach walkways, parking lots, and roads is likely, especially in the morning hours near high tide. Large surf will create dangerous rip currents, along with strong long shore currents, potential sneaker waves, and large shore pound. Impacts will be less for south-facing shores.
The highest risk will be for the Central Coast with potential for localized damage to the most vulnerable areas - such as to piers, roads, and structures. High Surf and Coastal Flood WARNINGS have been issued for the Central Coast with impacts such as breaking waves at Morro Bay Harbor entrance and Pismo and Cayucos Piers, as well as widespread sandy beach flooding - including Oceano Dunes State Park and other vulnerable low lying areas (especially during high tide). Surf heights are expected to reach 18-25 feet, highest at west-northwest facing beaches.
For west-facing beaches in LA/Ventura counties, high surf advisories have been issued with high surf expected to continue through at least Tuesday. There may be a relative "lull" in the surf Sunday before the second swell arrives, but surf and rip currents will still be hazardous. Surf is expected to peak Saturday and there is a low chance for WARNING level surf at Ventura County beaches. Breaking waves may impact the Ventura Harbor entrance.
Ca, Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Tuesday afternoon for zones 87-349-350. (See LAXCFWLOX). High Surf Advisory in effect until 9 PM PST Friday for zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX). High Surf Warning in effect from 9 PM Friday to 3 AM PST Sunday for zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX). Coastal Flood Warning in effect from 3 AM to 6 PM PST Saturday for zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX). High Surf Advisory in effect until 3 PM PST Tuesday for zone 354. (See LAXCFWLOX). Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Friday afternoon for zones 362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). High Surf Advisory in effect from 2 PM Friday to 3 PM PST Tuesday for zones 362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 AM Friday to 3 AM PST Wednesday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 6 PM Friday to 3 AM PST Sunday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 6 PM Friday to 9 AM PST Saturday for zone 655. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Wednesday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
