24/727 PM.
Very hot conditions will dominate the week, with a high risk for heat illness. Patchy night through morning low clouds and locally dense fog will be confined to some coastal areas. Significant cooling is likely over the weekend but it will remain warm.
(tdy-Thu), 24/826 PM.
A large upper level high over the entire southern half of the United States, will dominate the week. The high is currently centered over New Mexico and Texas, and remains on track to shift to the west starting Tuesday. By Thursday, the core of the high will be centered over Arizona. Meanwhile, onshore flow will weaken a little and the low-level prevailing flow will become more northerly. This is a classic setup for very hot conditions over our area. The forecast remains on track for a significant 72 hour period of very hot conditions over the vast majority of the region. Most areas 5 to 10 miles inland of the beaches will likely see high temperatures in the 100-110 range. Temperatures will randomly fluctuate a couple of degrees each day, but will not be noticeable. Expecting several calendar day records to fall. Overnight conditions will be warm as well. Considering the magnitude of the daytime temperatures, the limited relief overnight, and the prolonged nature of this heat event, the Extreme Heat Warnings currently issued look well justified.
Sundowner winds will affect southern Santa Barbara County through the week, and should increase some each night. Wind Advisories might be needed by Tuesday or Wednesday Night.
The shallow marine layer will likely keep low clouds and dense fog on the Central Coast through Tuesday. Offshore flow is still on target to develop Wednesday through Thursday. While the winds will not be very strong, it is looking more and more favorable that they will be sufficient enough to minimize the marine layer up there. As a result, the big temperature jump will likely be on Wednesday for the Central Coast, and the Heat Advisory looks good. How the marine layer will behave over Los Angeles and Ventura Counties remains a big unknown. Models like the idea of an enhanced coastal eddy forming tonight, and the current SBA-SAN gradient suggests that one will, but it is so hard to determine how the low clouds will respond.
(Fri-Mon), 24/200 PM.
Increasing northerly flow over the Santa Ynez range is expected later in the week with the potential for very hot sundowners across southern SBA county. A decent N to S gradient will set up over the county each evening and gusty north canyon winds will develop. These hot winds could drive max temps into the 100-105 degree range and could also keep temperatures in the 80s until almost dawn.
Most of the ensemble models are favoring a few degrees of cooling each day from Friday to next Monday, with highs either at or slightly above normal.
24/2313z.
At 23Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 500 feet deep. The top of the inversion was 2000 feet and 31 degrees Celsius.
High confidence in VFR conditions through at least Tuesday KPRB, KSBA, KBUR, KVNY, KPMD, and KWJF.
Chances of LIFR/IFR ceilings tonight at KSBP (60%) KSMX (90%), KOXR (30%) KCMA (30%) KSMO (40%) KLAX (50%) KLGB (50%). Moderate confidence in timing (plus or minus 3 hours).
KLAX, There is a 50% chance of IFR conditions 10-16Z, with a 10% chance of LIFR. No significant easterly wind component is expected.
KBUR, High confidence in VFR conditions through the period.
24/806 PM.
For the Outer Waters, high confidence in current forecast. Through Tuesday morning, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds will continue across PZZ673/676. From Tuesday afternoon through Saturday, SCA level winds are expected across all of the Outer Waters. Seas will remain at SCA levels, initially due to short period combined seas, but approaching 8 to 10 feet by Thursday.
For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Through Tuesday morning there is high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. Late Tuesday afternoon through late Tuesday night there is a 40-60% chance of SCA winds. For Wednesday through Saturday, there is a 60-80% chance of SCA level winds in the afternoon and evening hours. Short period seas will be common throughout the week, especially during the afternoon to evening.
For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. For a majority of the southern Inner Waters, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels through Saturday. The only exception will be the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel where there is a 60-80% chance of SCA level winds Tuesday through Saturday in the late afternoon and evening hours.
Ca, Heat Advisory in effect until 10 AM PDT Tuesday for zones 38-87-88-349>358-362-366>376-378>380-548. (See LAXNPWLOX). Extreme Heat Warning in effect from 10 AM Tuesday to 8 PM PDT Friday for zones 38-87-88-349>358-362-366>376-378>383-548. (See LAXNPWLOX). Heat Advisory in effect from 10 AM Wednesday to 8 PM PDT Thursday for zones 341-347-348. (See LAXNPWLOX). Heat Advisory in effect from 10 AM Tuesday to 8 PM PDT Friday for zones 342>345. (See LAXNPWLOX). Red Flag Warning in effect from 10 AM Tuesday to 3 PM PDT Friday for zones 345-353-375>380. (See LAXRFWLOX). PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM Tuesday to 3 AM PDT Wednesday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM Tuesday to 3 AM PDT Thursday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Thursday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
