16/931 PM.
A few additional degrees of cooling are expected today, with temperatures returning to normal over the weekend. Morning low clouds and fog will continue to affect many coastal areas each day through early next week.
(Thu-Sun), 16/846 PM.
***UPDATE***
Current forecast looks on track, with a cooler high temperatures Friday and an increase in coastal clouds and fog. Temperatures should hover near normal for the weekend, but increased overall clouds from this moisture could yield cooler values in places that see more daytime mid to high level clouds. The door is also still open for convection, especially Sunday, focused over the mountains.
***From Previous Discussion***
Another hot day with temperatures 7-15 degrees above normal. However, onshore trends began today and the sea breeze has been able move in earlier and stronger resulting in 2-5 degrees of cooling area-wide today.
More significant cooling, roughly 5-10 degrees, expected Friday as a trough develops over the Pac NW further increasing onshore flow. Highs expected to be within a few degrees of normal in most areas except the far interior areas where highs near 100 are still expected for another day. And likely some increase in morning low clouds and fog for coastal areas.
Temperatures over the the weekend are expected to be near or even slightly below normal, though the remnants of TS Elida will be moving north-northwest which likely will increase humidities as PW's increase back to near 1.50". With that in mind there is a 5-10% chance of a shower or thunderstorm by Sunday over the mountains.
(Mon-Thu), 16/155 PM.
Temperature trends remain pretty flat through Monday or Tuesday then models indicate a slow increase in high pressure next week with weakening onshore flow Wednesday through Friday which would result in a warming trend. There is roughly a 50-70% chance of highs in the lower 100s in the warmer valleys by Wednesday and around a 20% chance of 105. Downtown has around a 30-40% chance of reaching 90 by next Wednesday or Thursday while the deserts have a 60%-80% chance of at least lower 100s.
There is another tropical storm behind Elida next week but for now the upper level pattern favors a more westerly trajectory which would result in fewer impacts locally.
16/2335z.
At 2300Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1500 ft deep. The top of the inversion was at 3500 ft with a max temperature of 27 C.
High confidence in VFR TAFs for KPRB, KBUR, KVNY, KPMD, and KWJF.
Moderate confidence in coastal valley and coastal TAFs, where MVFR to IFR CIGs and MVFR VSBYs are forecast to return. There is a 40% chance for restrictions to be off by +/- 2 hours in onset and dissipation timing, and off by one category in minimum restriction.
Dry conditions are forecast to prevail areawide.
KLAX, Moderate confidence in TAF. Onset and dissipation of MVFR to IFR CIGs is expected to occur within 2 hours of 08Z-17Z on Friday. There is a 60% chance for the east wind component to reach 8 knots on Friday 08Z-17Z.
KBUR, High confidence in VFR TAF.
16/819 PM.
Moderate to strong NW winds are affecting out outer waters this evening, with a GALE WARNING in effect for the northern outer zone (PZZ670) through late tonight, and a Small Craft Advisory (SCA) farther south. Winds will lower to SCA levels after 0300 Friday, and the SCA winds will persist through late Friday night across all of the outer waters. Saturday through Monday winds will generally remain below SCA levels although may approach SCA at times, especially Saturday and Sunday. Winds may rise to SCA levels again next Tuesday. Short period seas are currently around 8 to 10 feet across the outer waters, and they will gradually subside through Sunday.
SCA winds along the Central Coast north of Pt. Sal will persist through late tonight, with a 30 percent chance of returning Friday afternoon and evening. Otherwise winds are likely to remain below SCA levels through the period.
Locally gusty winds and short period seas will extend into the western Santa Barbara Channel tonight, but should remain below SCA levels. Local gusts to 25 knots are possible over the far western part of the Channel through late this evening. Additional SCA conds will be possible each late afternoon and evening in the western Channel Sunday through Tuesday. Further south, SCA conds are not expected for PZZ655 through the period.
16/927 PM.
Tropical storm Elida is expected to strengthen to hurricane status on Friday and move to the north and west. Another tropical disturbance is expected to strengthen early Monday and generally follow the path of Elida to the northwest. This activity will occur over the eastern Pacific waters well off the coast of mainland Mexico and Baja California.
These southerly swells will propagate northward and will begin affecting our south-facing beaches by Sunday with building long period surf. This activity will likely persist through the week. Additional swells will likely arrive later next week due to strong storms across the southern Hemisphere adding to the mix, likely producing more significant hazardous beach conditions.
Ca, NONE. PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect until midnight PDT tonight for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Saturday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
