03/623 AM.
A major and long lasting heat wave is expected to persist through all of next week with dangerously hot temperatures. Clouds and dense fog are expected portions of the coastal waters this morning, likely reoccuring again tonight into Sunday morning.
(tdy-Mon), 03/422 AM.
Expecting most areas to remain clear overnight, although marine layer clouds have pushed into a few areas along the Central Coast, and any fog that forms may become dense at times, as the marine layer is quite shallow. Low confidence in the coverage of marine layer clouds this morning, and cannot fully rule out clouds reaching the southern Santa Barbara coast to the Ventura County Coast.
High pressure will persist over the region in the short-term supporting ongoing hot weather for southern California. By Sunday a weak upper level low off the coast will bring more southerly flow to the region this weekend. Monday, upper level flow will weaken significantly as the high builds off the coast, transitioning southern California into more northerly upper level flow. Offshore pressure gradients (LAX-DAG and LAX- BFL) appear to peak today and Sunday around 2-3 mb, with gradient strengths shifting to favor more a more easterly component rather than northerly. Still, winds should remain below advisory levels. Northern Santa Barbara County, and SLO County will see some warming today (thanks to a slight increase in offshore flow). Extreme Heat Warnings will continue to be in effect through the weekend and the majority of next week, along with Heat Advisories starting today for SLO and the northern SBA Counties. Based on the latest forecast trends that advisory will likely need to be extended at least another day or two.
(Tue-Fri), 03/420 AM.
Hot weather will drag on from Tuesday into Thursday as high pressure persists. However, offshore pressure gradients are forecast to weaken Wednesday through Friday, with coastal sea breezes likely returning Thursday, growing stronger Friday (onshore LAX- DAG gradient reaching around 3 mb). Saturday, models indicates approaching tropical moisture along with an upper level trough, leading to cooling temperatures and increased clouds for the weekend. This may even open the door for showers as early as late Sunday.
03/1318z.
At 0344Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer. There was a surface based inversion with a top at 1300 ft and a temperature of 32 C.
Moderate confidence in KSBP, with LIFR conditions possible through 16Z. High confidence in remaining TAFs with VFR conditions expected. LIFR to VLIFR conditions are possible again for KSBP and KSMX after 08Z. No wind issues expected.
KLAX, High confidence in 12Z TAF with VFR conditions through the period. High confidence that any east wind component remains below 8 kts.
KBUR, High confidence in the 12Z TAF with VFR conditions expected. No wind issues expected.
02/737 PM.
Generally quiet conditions expected across the coastal waters through the forecast period. Localized Small Craft Advisory (SCA) gusts may occur each afternoon and evening between Point Conception and San Nicolas Island, off the coast of Point Dume, and across the San Pedro Channel.
02/807 PM.
Quiet conditions are expected through the weekend, aside from the heat. Meanwhile, another hurricane (Rachel) will likely bring a larger- than- Polo southerly swell to southern California for much of the coming work week. The window of most concern is Tuesday through Friday. Elevated surf up to 5-6 ft is likely with a lower chance of high surf 7ft or higher across exposed south facing beaches. High tides of 6.5-7.0 ft are expected. Unlike previous events, morning and evening tides will be similar in height. Initially, the swell will have a more SE direction (150-160) targeting areas like Long Beach Tuesday and Wednesday. As Rachel moves westward, the swell direction will become more southerly (170-190) Thursday and Friday targeting areas like Zuma. There is a high risk for Beach Hazard Statements and a moderate risk for Coastal Flood Advisories and High Surf Advisories along the LA/VTA coastline. Stay tuned for future updates.
Ca, Extreme Heat Warning in effect until 8 PM PDT Thursday for zones 38-87-88-349>358-362-366>375-548-550. (See LAXNPWLOX). Heat Advisory in effect from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM PDT Sunday for zones 341>345-347-348. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ, NONE.
