20/841 PM.
Another heat wave is coming this week, peaking Thursday, but remaining well above normal into early next week. There is potential for major or extreme heat concerns for at least the next week.
(Mon-Thu), 20/840 PM.
***UPDATE***
The region remains in southerly flow with high pressure centered over Colorado, and the remnant tropical system are both helping to bring plenty of humidity to the region. Some spotty showers developed as a result, but no significant accumulations occurred. Over the next few days, high pressure will strengthen over the region, leading to developing heat. Winds will be fairly tame across the region through Tuesday afternoon, aside from the typical breezy onshore winds for the Antelope Valley. However, Tuesday night sundowner winds may reach advisory levels for the Santa Ynez Range, reoccurring Wednesday and Thursday night. Current forecast looks on track, but cut back marine layer clouds a bit in the short-term as high clouds may impede stratus development. Lower confidence in the marine layer forecast for tonight into tomorrow morning, and clouds and patchy fog may be very short- lived.
***From Previous Discussion***
A fairly complicated weather scenario this week into early next week, but the screaming message is IT'S GOING TO BE VERY HOT, and our warm ocean temperatures will definitely be playing a roll as they have the last several weeks. An assortment of heat advisories and Extreme Heat Watches have been issued, most areas starting Wednesday, except the Antelope Valley beginning Thursday. The coastal valleys will potentially have two starting points, the first being the Heat Advisory for Wednesday, and the second being the strong possibility of the Extreme Heat Watch converting to a Warning.
The warm ocean, in the lower 70s in the SM Bay and mid 60s from Ventura to Monterey, is pumping a lot of relatively warm air onshore, keeping lows in the mid to upper 60s south of Pt Conception and mid to upper 50s up north, and also maintaining high humidities during the the afternoon which adds an additional component to the heat risk calculation.
So for Tuesday, very little change from today. Expecting less in the way of clouds tomorrow as Elida continues moving north out of area. However, there will be an increasing influence from Fausto which is currently southwest of Baja. Most of the ensemble models show PW's lingering around 1.5" through Wednesday, then slowly decreasing but remaining well above normal through Friday.
The next heat wave is expected to kick in starting Wednesday, peaking in most areas Thursday, except in the Antelope Valley peaking on Friday with highs 6-12 degrees above normal. And perhaps just as important if not more so, overnight lows will continue to run 5-10 degrees above normal.
In addition, another round of gusty Sundowner winds is expected across southern Santa Barbara County, strongest Wednesday evening, pushing another round of hot air to the coastal areas there Wednesday and Thursday.
With the combination of the strong high pressure aloft, along with weakening onshore flow and well above normal humidities everywhere except for the far interior areas, moderate to major levels of heat risk are expected the next several days. It's strongly recommended that outdoor activities are confined to the early morning and evening hours during this heat wave.
(Fri-Mon), 20/124 PM.
Overall, minimal changes in the weather pattern into early next week. Increasing moisture from Fausto is possible over the weekend and depending on the track could introduce increasing clouds and or moisture into the area which may result in either slightly cooling temperatures due to cloud cover or a small possibility of showers, mainly mountain areas. But the most likely forecast is for well above normal temperatures and humidities to continue through at least early next week.
21/0213z.
At 2100Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 800 ft deep. The top of the inversion was at 2400 ft with a max temperature of 25 C.
High confidence in VFR TAFs for KBUR, KVNY, KPMD, KWJF, and KPRB.
Low confidence in remain TAFs with 20-40 percent that VFR conds prevail with timing off by up to 3 hours and one flight category.
KLAX, Low confidence in TAF with a 40 percent chance that VFR conds prevail. No significant east wind component expected.
KBUR, High confidence in VFR TAF.
20/840 PM.
Conditions are generally expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels through Tuesday morning. Northwest winds will strengthen Tuesday, rising to SCA levels by Tuesday afternoon, and will likely continue through the rest of the week and into the weekend. Chances also increase for SCA level west to northwest winds in the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel during the same time.
A series of moderate period southerly swells will move through the waters through the week and likely beyond, along with a long period southern hemisphere swell arriving late this week. These swells may impact south facing harbors, including the Port San Luis area.
20/840 PM.
Over the eastern Pacific, the remnants of Tropical Storm Elida are forecast to continue moving north-northwest well off the California Coast. In addition, Hurricane Fausto, located 700 NM SW of southern Baja, will move ENE between 15 to 20 N latitude through the next 5 days or longer. This system will produce additional, moderate period southerly swell that will begin to move into the waters late Tuesday. High Surf Advisories and Beach Hazards Statements are in effect this evening through Tuesday night.
Finally, an incoming long period, southern hemisphere swell arriving later this week/ Thursday night will contribute to continued and potentially more hazardous beach conditions late this week and next weekend. Additional High Surf Advisories and/or Beach Hazards Statements will likely be needed during this time.
Looking beyond the forecast period, a series of tropical systems are forecast to develop off the coast of Mexico and move to the northwest, likely producing multiple rounds of southerly swells over the next couple of weeks.
Ca, Heat Advisory in effect from 10 AM Wednesday to 8 PM PDT Monday for zones 38-348-351>353-368. (See LAXNPWLOX). High Surf Advisory in effect until 11 PM PDT Tuesday for zones 87-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). Heat Advisory in effect from 10 AM to 8 PM PDT Wednesday for zones 88-356>358-369>382-548. (See LAXNPWLOX). Extreme Heat Watch in effect from Wednesday evening through Monday evening for zones 88-356>358-369>382-548. (See LAXNPWLOX). Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Tuesday afternoon for zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX). Heat Advisory in effect from 10 AM Wednesday to 8 PM PDT Thursday for zones 349-350. (See LAXNPWLOX). Extreme Heat Watch in effect from Thursday morning through Monday evening for zone 383. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect from 2 PM Tuesday to 3 AM PDT Wednesday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 2 PM Tuesday to 3 AM PDT Thursday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
