09/133 PM.
Benign weather will continue through this week, with a warming trend continuing through Thursday. High temperatures will be well above normal through at least Friday. Offshore flow will produce locally gusty canyon winds in the mornings.
(Tue-Fri), 09/1002 PM.
***UPDATE***
Temperatures warmed into the 80s again today for the coasts and coastal valleys, with cooler 60s and 70s for the inland areas and inland mountains. There were localized areas of gusty offshore winds today for portions of the San Gabriel Mountains, the I-14 corridor, Santa Susana and Santa Monica Mountains, and the Santa Lucia Mountains. Easterly wind gusts reached 63 mph at Mount Lowe this afternoon, with other higher elevation spots reaching gusts in the 30s and 40s. Warm conditions are expected to continue over the next few days, and the current forecast looks on track.
***From Previous Discussion***
Enjoyable weather is expected through the short-term period. A 590 dam ridge of high pressure is centered about 700 miles west of Point Conception. This feature is expected to remain nearly stationary & gradually weaken through the week. Offshore gradients from the north and east have peaked Today and are expected to weaken Wednesday through Friday. KSBP-KBFL & KSMX-BFL gradient values will be similar late tonight into early tomorrow morning. However, there will not be support up to 850 mb that we had this morning. Thus, winds should remain below wind advisory criteria, but cannot rule out a local gust to 45 mph. Gusty winds are expected through and below passes and canyons in the usual Santa Ana wind prone areas through Thursday morning. Local gusts to 45 mph is possible across the Santa Susana mountains through Wed morning, with a 20% chance of a wind advisory.
The combination of offshore flow and the upper high will result in clear skies and well above normal temps across the area through likely Friday. Maximum Temps are expected to warm 2 to 4 degrees Wednesday, except for the coast and inland coast areas which should remain similar.
Overall, this will make Wednesday the warmest day across our area. Inland coastal areas will see highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s & valley locations well into the 80s. The warmest locations will be across the San Fernando, Santa Clarita, Ojai, & Santa Ynez valley floors. Max T departures are expected to be 12 to 18 degrees above normal. Some local areas over 20 degrees.
Most sites should stay below record values. However, our forecasted numbers are within a couple degrees of daily records such as: Ojai (1958) and Lancaster (1975).
The ridge and offshore flow will weaken some Thursday into Friday which will result in 3 to 6 degrees of cooling across csts/vlys thanks to earlier and stronger seabreeze. The far interior should remain near the same as the previous day. Coastal areas will see more cooling on Friday as offshore gradients continue to relax. Most areas should remain about the same, except for SLO interior which could see 2 to 4 degrees of warming.
(Sat-Tue), 09/141 PM.
A shortwave trough is expected to arrive to the area on Saturday reducing 500mb heights to around 578 dam. Also, gradients look to increase to near neutral according to ECMWF guidance. About 50% of ensembles have weak onshore flow which would be sufficient for night through morning low clouds and fog (likely dense) to return to some of the coasts. More support on Sunday.
Max Temperatures are expected to cool 1 to 3 degrees on Saturday. Another 3 to 6 degrees of cooling is expected on Sunday. However, we will stay above normal by 3 to 6 degrees across csts/vlys and 6 to 12 degrees across the interior. There is decent agreement on reinforcing ridging early next week which would likely result in offshore flow, less clouds, and another increase in temps.
The ECWMF/AI show some support for troffing and rain chances to return after the 20th, but its minimal and low confidence at this time.
10/0555z.
At 0520Z at KLAX, There was no marine layer. There was a surfaced based inversion with a top of 1000 ft and a temperature of 24 C.
High confidence in VFR TAFs.
KLAX, High confidence in TAF. Any east wind component will be less than 7 knots.
KBUR, High confidence in VFR TAF.
09/843 PM.
NE winds of 15 to 25 knots will affect wind prone areas at times through Wednesday morning. This includes portions of the Central Coast and from Ventura to Santa Monica. These winds will likely reach low-end Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels for the nearshore waters of San Luis Obispo County.
Some dense fog will form in the coastal waters by Thursday or Friday, but low confidence on when and where.
Ca, NONE. PZ, Small Craft Advisory in effect until 10 AM PST Wednesday for zones 645-670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
