, Issued at 101 PM PDT Tue Jul 14 2026 (This evening through Wednesday night)
This afternoon is forecast to be the warmest of the week with temperatures across the interior peaking in the middle 90s up to around 103 deg F. As such, we have a Heat Advisory out for most of the interior through 10 PM tonight where we have Moderate HeatRisk forecasted. Near the coast, temperatures will be moderated by the afternoon sea breeze (yet up to 6 degrees above average given the lack of a stratus deck). That said, very dry conditions (especially in the higher terrain) will persist through midweek as high pressure over the Rockies and Midwest persists. Please see the Fire Weather section of the AFD for more information.
Tonight, expecting mostly clear sky conditions across the region and temperatures near the coast and in the valleys to be in the 60s. However, some guidance suggests the North Bay coast and adjacent valleys and locations along the immediate coastline across the entire region will cool into the 50s with better radiational cooling given the lack of high cloud cover.
How much cooling that occurs overnight into Wednesday morning will likely dictate how warm tomorrow will be to some extend. We again continue to have a Heat Advisory in effect for the Santa Lucia Rage, Los Padres National Forest, and the southern Salinas Valley from 10 AM - 10 PM Wednesday where the most widespread Moderate HeatRisk exists. Elsewhere, temperatures continue on a downward trend for Wednesday (still above seasonal averages however).
..issued at 101 PM PDT Tue Jul 14 2026 (Thursday through next Monday)
A mid/upper level trough just off of the Pacific Northwest coast will deepen slightly late in the week, bring temperatures closer to seasonal averages as onshore flow increases. This will also bring Minor HeatRisk to just about all of the region Thursday and beyond. As a result of increased onshore winds, the marine layer is forecast to deepen to around 1,000 feet in depth.
From the previous forecaster: "At 500 mb the high pressure over the Rockies will remain in place as the trough approaches the coast. This pattern will keep mid-level winds out of the south to southwest through the week. That means the tropical moisture conveyer belt will remain open. While dry air will dominate the middle of the week, there is an increasing chance that one of the many robust tropical waves off the coast of Mexico will develop into a tropical cyclone this week aided by the warm El Nino waters. If that happens, there is a chance that some of the associated moisture will be drawn into the SW winds and advect over the Bay Area, bringing us similar impacts and considerations that we saw with recent monsoon moisture event. Depending on the strength of the TC, there could also be impacts from ocean swell at the beach. The uncertainty is still high, but it's been trending more likely recently. The ECMWF 50 member ensemble has a mean PW returning above 1.0" by Sunday- Monday. That's around the 90th percentile for this time of year. I also noticed 7 of the members have a PW over 1.5", and 2 members are over 2". The highest we've ever recorded is 1.79", and that was on 8/16/2020, when the remnants of Tropical Storm Fausto brought a major dry lightning outbreak to the Bay Area and sparked several wildfires. I'm certainly not predicting a repeat of August 2020, but it's worth keeping an eye on this next potential moisture push given the current warm temperatures and dry fuels."
(18z TAFS) Issued at 1129 AM PDT Tue Jul 14 2026
Mainly clear skies and VFR conditions are expected for the TAF cycle as the monsoon moisture exits the region. Winds will gradually become onshore throughout the day. Very few hi-res models show low clouds trying to develop late tonight and into Wednesday morning. The signs for stratus development increase Wednesday night into, with Thursday into Friday looking even better.
Vicinity of SFO, VFR conditions will prevail with the main story being increasing onshore flow this afternoon and evening. Winds will pick up between 19-21Z and then hold through roughly 03-4Z before gradually decreasing. Sustained speeds will range from 12-18kt and gusts may reach 25kt at times during this time frame. Wednesday afternoon, the onshore push looks to be a bit stronger and roughly around the same time frame. Gusts up to 25kt are expected, but may get to 30kt for a few hours during the late afternoon and early evening.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals, Light winds, clear skies, and VFR conditions will prevail. A few models try to hint at the marine layer making a return tonight; however, confidence is low in that occuring. The signs for stratus development increase Wednesday night into, with Thursday into Friday looking even better.
(today through Sunday) Issued at 1129 AM PDT Tue Jul 14 2026
Moderate to fresh northwesterly breezes are expected through Wednesday leading to hazardous conditions for small craft will result across the northern waters and along the Big Sur Coast. Northwesterly breezes will increase on Thursday to become fresh to strong, bringing widespread hazardous conditions for small craft. Moderate seas will prevail, building to become rough in the outer waters over the weekend.
Ca, Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM PDT Thursday for CAZ006-506- 508.
Heat Advisory until 10 PM PDT this evening for CAZ503-504-506- 510-513>517-528.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM PDT Wednesday for CAZ505-509- 529-530.
Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM PDT Wednesday for CAZ516-517.
PZ, Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
