Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Francisco CA

421 pm PDT Sat jul 25 2026

Short Term

, Issued at 1254 PM PDT Sat Jul 25 2026 (This evening through Sunday night)

With mostly sunny sky conditions across the region this afternoon, temperatures will be seasonably warm. The warmest will be across the interior with 80s to lower 90s and mid-to-upper 90s across the warmest portions of the far interior valleys. Stratus is once again forecast to make a return to the coast late tonight and into the coastal adjacent valleys by Sunday morning. However, a very similar weather pattern is forecast as this morning, so confidence is low to moderate at best. The marine layer is forecast to remain around 1,000 feet in depth, so we'll see how tonight pans out. For Sunday, expecting similar conditions as today.

A long-period (20-22 second) southerly swell has arrived along the San Francisco Bay Area and Central Coast! Be advised, sunny conditions along the coast will make for an increase in visitors (tourist, out of state, and even locals trying to escape the inland heat). The Beach Hazards Statement has been extended into Wednesday afternoon as tropical cyclone Genevieve in the Eastern Pacific will also impact conditions along our coastline. For more on this, please see the Beaches section of the AFD below.

Long Term

..issued at 1254 PM PDT Sat Jul 25 2026 (Monday through next Friday)

Not much change in the extended forecast. Expecting near normal temperatures to persist into the first half of the week as high pressure remains over the Four Corners region and troughing persists off of the Pacific Northwest coast. A gradual warming trend, especially across the interior, is expected as the high pressure builds toward and over southern California late this week into next weekend. However, onshore winds are forecast to persist through this period allowing for cooler conditions near the coast. By Thursday and into next weekend, we see more widespread Moderate HeatRisk across the interior.

Aviation

(00z TAFS) Issued at 420 PM PDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Currently VFR with a few thin high clouds streaming in from the southwest. This means stratus has a long way to go before it gets advected in or forms. With that and how last night went, confidence is only low to moderate (up to 60%) that ceilings will return tonight. If they do, it'll likely be in the early-to-mid morning hours. With a compressed marine layer, ceilings will likely be IFR and thus be difficult to reach interior terminals. Widespread VFR is expected by tomorrow afternoon. Diurnal winds will prevail.

Vicinity of SFO, Currently VFR with westerly flow. Strong westerly winds with gusts up to 30 knots are expected through this evening. Moderate (60%) confidence on a ceiling returning tonight, likely IFR/low-end MVFR.

SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals, Currently VFR with westerly flow at both terminals. Moderate (60%) confidence on ceilings returning tonight, likely IFR.

Marine

(tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 420 PM PDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Fresh northwesterly breezes with gale force gusts continue into the weekend. Northwest winds increase to strong by Tuesday and moderate seas build to rough by Wednesday. The long period southerly swell caused by distant tropical cyclone activity in the Eastern Pacific continues to impact our coastal waters into the middle of the upcoming week.

Beaches

Issued at 911 AM PDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Tropical cyclones in the Eastern Pacific are generating a long- period southwesterly swell which has reached the coastline of the San Francisco Bay Area and Central Coast. As such, sneaker waves and strong rip currents are the primary concerns. However, breaking waves can reach up to 10 feet along some south and southwest facing beaches and break points (like Santa Cruz, Pacifica, and parts of Stinson or Ocean Beach). Sneaker waves can have 20+ minutes in between the larger sets (breaking waves) with significant "flat/calm looking" times between them. This can potentially catch beachgoers by surprise and resulting in people being swept into the cold turbulent ocean; hence the name "sneaker". Rip currents are strong enough to pull the strongest swimmers away from shore. Swim near a lifeguard if possible. Stay back from the beach, and away from jetties, piers, beachside rocks, and other infrastructure near the water. Never turn your back to the ocean! The Beach Hazards Statement has been extended through Wednesday afternoon for all beaches along the Pacific Coast.

RGass

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Ca, Beach Hazards Statement through Wednesday afternoon for CAZ006- 505-509-529-530.

PZ, Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM PDT Sunday for Mry Bay.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 3 PM PDT Monday for Mry Bay.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Sunday to 3 PM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

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