, Issued at 400 PM PST Fri Feb 13 2026 (This evening through Saturday)
The short term weather period will be largely dominated by short term ridging. High clouds (lower along the coast/valleys) will continue to invade from the north ahead of what will be a start to a more active stretch of weather.
..issued at 400 PM PST Fri Feb 13 2026 (Saturday night through next Thursday)
Summary: A series of storm systems will arrive across the region later this weekend and into next week. Note that while daily rain chances are largely above 50-60%, rain will be intermittent and more episodic nature (not all day). Heaviest rainfall is expected with system number 1 on Sunday and into very early Tuesday. System number 2 during the day on Tuesday featuring the strongest winds (40-50 mph) over the next 7 days. System 2 will also have the potential to produce accumulating mountain snow (near people/infrastructure) and thunderstorm activity late Tuesday and through Thursday. System 3 will be later in the week and likely aggravate any impacts from the previous systems. As always, check back to the forecast for updates.
Changes will begin Saturday night as the initial upper trough (positively tilted) amplifies and dives southward. Increased southwesterly flow ahead of this trough will encourage widespread ascent--enhanced along southwest facing terrain. Largely showery type conditions should be anticipated for most areas by sundown Saturday. Hi-res NWP continues to support an initial delay to the onset of the greatest convective chances on Saturday evening/night and into Sunday.
With activity being scattered in nature, not all locations will see rain even through parts of Sunday. Larger upper diffluent and likely divergent flow aloft should translate to widespread ascent. And this will signify 1 of 3 main storm systems forecast to impact the area over the next 7 days.
The "heaviest" rainfall period will take place with system #1. Southwest facing higher terrain will have a shot at exceeding even NBM 75th percentile amounts thru 12Z Tuesday, especially across the North Bay Coastal Ranges and Santa Cruz Mountains (values around 3-4"), with the Santa Lucia Range (likely the big winners) potentially seeing amounts as great as 4-6". For now the official forecasts through late Monday for those selected areas are 2-3" (isolated 3.5")" and 3-5" respectively. At this time the main impacts are anticipated to be largely nuisance flooding, but there is the potential for flooding of low-lying and regions of poor drainage. Be sure to avoid flood prone areas, especially at night. In addition, there will be adverse impacts for those with outdoor activities as well as a potential threat for rockslides in areas of steep terrain (thereby impacting nearby infrastructure). There will likely be some wind on Monday afternoon, especially along the Big Sur Coast, Santa Cruz Mountains, and Diablo Range, and Gabilan Range with peak gusts of around 40 to near 45 mph.
Snow levels across the higher terrain of the North Bay (Cobb Mountain, Mount Saint Helena) may drop such that light snow may mix in here around midnight Tuesday morning. Accumulation isn't expected with this system at this time, but we'll monitor for future changes.
Storm system #2 on Tuesday and Wednesday will bring the greatest potential for the strongest winds, especially across the Central Coast and higher terrain regions across the board. The wind forecast remains quite nuanced, however, and the strongest gust will be highly dependent on whether a location is sheltered or not. Generally westerly flow through 850mb is anticipated to swing eastward with a pronounced corridor of winds through the mid- levels. Largely 30 to 40 mph surface wind gusts are forecast with there being a 70% chance for wind gusts across the higher terrain of the Santa Lucia Range, Diablo Range, Santa Cruz Mountains, and Gabilan Range Late Tuesday and into Wednesday. The current forecast for these higher terrain features resides closer to the higher end of the model envelope, with a 10% chance that winds of greater than 50-60 mph could transpire. As such High Wind products are not completely off the table but for now, we'll let later shifts re-examine with a fresher suite of higher-res NWP. Regardless, individuals with outdoor festivities, aviation (especially across the Central Coast) should be prepared for blustery southwesterly conditions that could become hazardous.
Additional rainfall is anticipated with storm system number 2, however, activity will likely be more cellular in nature (except along some of the more west facing slopes of higher terrain). As such, the forecast spread is much higher with this portion of the forecast due to the scattered nature of the rain activity. Given the favored westerly wind direction, locales across the higher terrain of the Central Coast should anticipate 1-4" with largely 1-2" across the Sonoma Coastal Range.
As we transition into system 3 the main themes will be the cold conditions. Late Tuesday and into Wednesday will also feature the start of a noteworthy cool down into next week as stout cold air advection invades from the north/northwest. Current temperatures into Wednesday morning are probable to fall into the mid to upper 30s and low 40s, areawide. It's been quite some time since it's been this cool across the area and individuals will need to be prepared for cold conditions. Those with sensitive crops, plants, and vegetation will need be prepared for cold conditions.
Also, snow levels will drop down to just under 2600 feet across the North Bay Mountains so Mount Vaca and Mount Hood will have a shot for accumulating snow. In addition, the higher terrain of the East Bay and Eastern Santa Clara Hills will have a chance to see measurable snowfall. While snow may already be in progress across the Santa Lucia's the window of greatest accumulation will be later Tuesday and into Wednesday. Confidence in snowfall amounts is low. The timing of the cold air (though it does appear that it'll coincide with periods of precipitation) as well as exact timing of convective elements will be refined in the coming days. The current total snowfall forecast calls for 2-7" of snow across the highest peaks of the Santa Lucia and Gabilan Ranges, with up to 0.50" of snow across the Diablo Range and trace amounts across the North Bay. Some of the higher end scenarios, however, paint around 5-10" of snowfall across the Santa Lucia and Gabilan Ranges, 2-5" of snow across the North Bay Mountains and higher terrain of the East Bay. In addition, areas across the Santa Cruz Mountain, Mt. Tam, and some of the other higher peaks around 2500 feet will have an opportunity for measurable snowfall. Again, if colder air filters in much faster and is deeper and if convective elements (and there is a risk for thunderstorms capable of producing widespread graupel) are more widespread, the higher end snowfall scenarios are more probable to unfold. Be sure to check back for updates to the forecast as additional information is available.
Finally, storm system number 3 Thursday into Friday isn't anticipated to bring much in the way of QPF, with averages largely between 1/4" up to 1/2" as it stands right now. The cumulative rainfall paired with cold conditions will certainly be impactful to those without adequate shelter or heating.
(00z TAFS) Issued at 413 PM PST Fri Feb 13 2026
Coastal stratus has started to push inland with increasing coverage expected through the evening and into Saturday morning. At the same time high clouds have begun to stream in ahead of a strong cold front that will arrive Saturday night. Winds will shift to southerly through the TAF period as the front approaches. Skies will remain overcast for most of the area through the day Saturday with a mixture of low, mid, and high clouds. Rain is likely to begin just oustide of the current TAF period.
Vicinity of SFO, The short term forecast is tricky. MVFR ceilings have pushed through the San Bruno gap and the terminal is reporting BKN016. It's unclear how long these will last, but the latest satellite trends and high resolution models indicate some drier air will move in within the next hour that should help scatter out the clouds. If VFR conditions return this evening they will only last for a few hours before a more robust push of marine stratus returns by early Saturday morning. The timing forecast is highly uncertain however, and ammendments to the TAF are likely.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO
Monterey Bay Terminals, Coastal stratus has enveloped MRY and there's a good chance it persists through the entire TAF period. SNS is a tougher forecast as the clouds are currently banking up along the low hills between the terminal and the Monterey Bay. There's also warmer and direr air over the terminal compared to MRY. On the other hand, SNS will likely deal with lower ceilings and possibly fog Saturday morning as the enhanced radiation cools the valley overnight.
(tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 413 PM PST Fri Feb 13 2026
A series of storms will bring hazardous conditions across the coastal waters starting late Saturday. By Sunday expect periods of heavy rain while a strong southerly breeze generates rough seas. After frontal passage winds will shift to NW and remain fresh to strong through mid week.
Issued at 945 PM PST Thu Feb 12 2026
Hazardous beach conditions are expected at Pacific Coast beaches, excluding the northern Monterey Bay, through Saturday morning. A moderate to long period northwesterly swell will result in an increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents with breaking waves of 14 to 19 feet. Remember: stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure, remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf, and NEVER turn your back on the ocean!
Ca, Beach Hazards Statement until 4 AM PST Saturday for CAZ006-505- 509-530.
PZ, Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 3 PM PST Sunday for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Saturday to 3 PM PST Sunday for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Saturday to 3 AM PST Sunday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Gale Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday afternoon for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.
