, Issued at 138 PM PDT Wed Jul 15 2026 (This evening through Thursday night)
The marine layer is making a good attempt at returning! However, hot temperatures, very dry conditions, and breezy winds persist across the interior and higher terrain across the region this afternoon. With full sunshine, temperatures will warm into the 90s to 103 deg F (in the warmest interior spots). These temperatures are slightly cooler than yesterday, yet are up to 10 degrees above seasonal averages (up to 20 degrees above for the higher elevations). Cooler temperatures will persist near the coast as onshore winds prevail. The aforementioned hot, dry, and windy conditions are creating elevated fire weather conditions across the interior and higher terrain. Please see the Fire Weather Section of the AFD for more information.
The marine layer is forecast to deepen to around 500 feet tonight. However, cloud cover is a bit more uncertain. There is a 30-50% probability of stratus returning to the coastline and Monterey Bay during the overnight hours and into early Thursday morning. However, any low clouds that do develop will quickly dissipate by mid-to-late morning.
For Thursday afternoon, temperatures generally cool to near seasonal averages for much of the region as onshore winds increase. This will lower HeatRisk to Minor category and bring an end to the warming trend as a mid/upper level trough of low pressure deepens off of the Pacific Northwest coast. Heading into Thursday night, the marine layer is forecast to deepen to around 1,000 feet and increase the potential for low clouds.
..issued at 138 PM PDT Wed Jul 15 2026 (Friday through next Tuesday)
Onshore winds will persist through much of the upcoming weekend and will allow for the marine layer to deepen and remain steady at around 1,500 feet. Thus, expect temperatures to remain near to slightly below normal for mid July with stratus more likely into the weekend. These low clouds will retreat back to the coast by mid-to- late morning.
Heading into late weekend and early next week, we are keeping an eye on monsoon moisture working its way northward around the Southern Plains' mid/upper level high. However, latest trends indicate the focus for thunderstorms has shifted to the east over the Sierra Nevada Sunday into Monday. That said, still expecting mid-to-high level clouds over the region. This will need to be closely monitored over the coming days as any high based thunderstorms will likely result in dry lightning that can spark wildfires.
(06z TAFS) Issued at 949 PM PDT Wed Jul 15 2026
Clear skies across the region with VFR prevailing everywhere except HAF. Confidence is decreasing that widespread stratus will return tonight so have tentatively improved MRY and SNS to VFR through tonight. Breezy winds diminish overnight before restrengthening during the afternoon/evening. The marine layer looks to return tomorrow evening with stratus reaching the coast by late evening.
Vicinity of SFO, VFR through the TAF period. Guidance shows the potential for a few low clouds to move into the SF Bay tonight but confidence is low. Leaned more towards the HRRR which showed significantly reduced cloud cover across the region and is more in line with current satellite observations. Breezy NW winds decrease overnight before restrengthening during the day.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals, VFR through tomorrow evening. Decreasing confidence that stratus will reach MRY/SNS tonight. HRRR guidance keeps skies clear tonight while other models continue to show stratus reaching the region. If stratus does return tonight, it would likely by IFR to LIFR given how compressed the marine layer currently is. MVFR-IFR conditions return tomorrow evening as the marine layer deepens. Winds decrease overnight before breezy W to NW winds return during the day.
(tonight through next Tuesday) Issued at 949 PM PDT Wed Jul 15 2026
Fresh to strong NW gusts continue across the coastal waters through Friday. Localized gale force gusts are expected along the coastal jet regions of Point Reyes and Point Sur. Moderate to rough seas will prevail through Friday. Seas subside and winds diminish Saturday into next week.
Ca, Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM PDT Thursday for CAZ006-506- 508.
Heat Advisory until 10 PM PDT this evening for CAZ516-517.
PZ, Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM PDT Thursday for Mry Bay- SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Thursday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Gale Warning from 9 AM to 8 PM PDT Thursday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
