, Issued at 1241 PM PDT Thu Jun 11 2026 (This evening through Friday)
Despite the beautiful sunny skies, there is a lot going on today. We are dealing with near record temperatures this afternoon, offshore winds and elevated fire weather conditions, a southerly surge of coastal stratus moving up the Central Coast, coastal flooding along the San Francisco Bay Shore, and a sneaker wave threat from long period southerly swell. Let's discuss each of these weather impacts individually.
High temperatures are ongoing afternoon. Today marks the hottest day of the week with temperatures expected to reach 10-20 degrees above normal across the interior. That translates to highs in the 90s to near 100 degrees in the typical hotspots. This will be the hottest day of the year for many, and will challenge some daily records. The immediate coast will be spared from some of this heat thanks to a very shallow marine layer and developing SW winds. However this relief won't make it very far inland, and it's already 89 degrees in San Francisco.
Offshore wind and elevated fire weather conditions continue across the interior mountains today. While the Red Flag warning across the interior North Bay and East Bay mountains expired at 9 AM, we are still observing near critical fire weather conditions in these areas above 1,000 ft elevation. The strong push of offshore winds is waning as high pressure over the Rockies starts to weaken. The SFO- WMC gradient bottomed out at -9.6 mb at 7 AM and has now risen to - 8.1 mb and will continue to neutralize through the next 24 hours. While today is hotter and drier than yesterday, the offshore winds are light enough to end the critical fire weather conditions.
A southerly surge of coastal stratus is moving up the Central Coast. Currently reaching Big Sur, this push of clouds will impact the Monterey Bay this afternoon and continue north through the night. There may be some fog impacts on HWY-1 as a result of this feature.
High tide flooding will occur nightly along the Bayshore through the middle of next week. The combination of an upcoming new moon and lunar perigee on Sunday, and about 7 inches of additional tidal anomaly from a combination of storm surge, thermal expansion of the Eastern Pacific, and about 2 inches inches of Sea Level Rise since the vertical datums were established in the 80s and 90s will add up to bring tides up to 1.8 feet above normal through the weekend. While lower than the historic tidal flooding in January (peaked at 2.6 ft) the tides this weekend could end up being the highest observed in the Summer, beating the current record of 1.7 ft from July 2022.
Long period southerly swell is bringing an enhanced risk of sneaker waves. Buoys are reporting mixed seas with a combination of NW wind waves and southerly swell. The southerly swell is around 5 feet with a 16 second period. These waves may go unnoticed by ships at sea, but when long period waves reach the coast they grow much higher than standard waves and bring stronger currents. The primary hazard is sneaker waves, particularly on S and SW facing beaches.
..issued at 1241 PM PDT Thu Jun 11 2026 (Friday night through next Wednesday)
Temperatures will start to come down Friday and continue to cool a couple degrees into the weekend. We will remain several degrees above normal across the interior, but the coast will shift into the typical Summertime marine layer pattern with clouds and fog in the morning and clear skies in the afternoon. A weak disturbance will move through the ridge on Sunday, allowing the marine layer to temporarily deepen a bit. Basically the atmosphere shifts back to normal, but we will still deal with the southerly swell and high tide flooding through the middle of next week.
(18z TAFS) Issued at 1228 PM PDT Thu Jun 11 2026
Onshore winds and VFR conditions prevail through the first half of the TAF period. Winds increase to a moderate breeze by the afternoon and diminish by sunset time. Currently, a southerly surge of low- level clouds detected via satellite is making its way up along the Big Sur coastline. This surge will cause winds to become variable, mainly with a southerly component, beginning around sunset and continuing through the overnight hours. IFR ceilings will begin to impact coastal sites as early as this evening (02-03Z), affecting Monterey Bay terminals first, then KHAF, and spill through the Golden Gate. The extent of these low-level clouds will be limited and recedes to the coastline by late Friday morning. Medium confidence in the exact timing of stratus impact.
Vicinity of SFO, Moderate westerly winds will prevail until the evening. As the southerly push of stratus makes its way through the Golden Gate tonight (~05-06Z), a few clouds may trickle over the airspace. High confidence that it will not impact operations and remain VFR through the TAF period. Winds will also diminish to a gentle breeze. While winds become variable at KSFO due to the local topography, KOAK will remain NW. By Friday early afternoon, winds will become westerly and moderate (10-13kts).
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals, Moderate onshore winds prevail through the afternoon. The much anticipated southerly surge will begin to fill in the Northern portion of Monterey Bay before circulating down into the peninsula. High confidence that IFR ceilings will begin to impact KSNS first before filling in over KMRY. Ceilings will be borderline IFR-LIFR and may fluctuate between the two, but will predominately remain IFR. These low ceilings are also expected to impact visibility until late Friday morning which is when conditions are expected to improve.
(today through Tuesday) Issued at 349 AM PDT Thu Jun 11 2026
Gale force gusts linger in the norther outer waters while winds overall will weaken to moderate to gentle breezes through the weekend and early next week. Rough seas will steadily diminish through early next week as the winds ease.
Issued at 1241 PM PDT Thu Jun 11 2026
Long period southerly swell will continue through the weekend, especially for south and southwest facing beaches. Hazardous beach conditions are advertised, specifically for moderate to steeply sloped beaches along the Pacific Coast of the North Bay, San Mateo, Santa Cruz counties. Be sure check beach conditions before you head out. Sneaker waves will run up the beach much farther than other waves, potentially catching beachgoers by surprise and resulting in people being swept into the water. Rip currents are strong enough to pull the strongest swimmers away from shore. Swim near a lifeguard if possible. Stay back from the beach, and away from jetties, piers, beachside rocks, and other infrastructure near the water. Never turn your back to the ocean!
Ca, Heat Advisory until 6 PM PDT this evening for CAZ006.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 3 AM PDT Wednesday for CAZ006-508.
Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for CAZ503-504-506- 508.
Beach Hazards Statement until 9 PM PDT this evening for CAZ505- 509-529.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for CAZ506.
Heat Advisory until 7 PM PDT Friday for CAZ510-513>515.
PZ, Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Friday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10- 60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.
