, Issued at 215 PM PDT Tue Oct 27 2026 (This evening through Wednesday night)
A chill is in the air! Weak, persistent troughing continues over the West Coast keeping a cooler airmass locked in place over us. High temperatures stay in the 60s across the interior and 50s to low 60s along the coast while overnight lows drop into the 40s. Pockets of the North Bay, the Gabilan Range, and the Eastern Santa Clara Hills will see morning lows drop into the upper 30s. Daytime high temperatures are running 5 to 10 degrees below normal with the 850 mb temperature running anywhere from 7C to 11C (between the mean and 25th percentile). Conversely, overnight lows are anywhere from seasonal to slightly below normal to slightly above normal (higher elevations) for this time of year. So while it may feel chilly in the morning, remember it could always be chillier for this time of year. Diurnally breezy winds continue along the coast and across mountain gaps/passes during the afternoon and evening with occasional gusts between 20 to 30 mph. The windiest conditions are expected late this afternoon/evening with weaker winds expected along the coast on Wednesday.
Coastal flooding peaked early this afternoon and will continue to diminish through the remainder of the week. Today's tides came in at 2.01 ft above normal (7.85 ft MLLW) with the peak occuring at 12:24 PM. High tides will peak at 1.9 ft above normal (7.7 ft MLLW) at 12:56 PM on Wednesday. High tides are due to a combination of high astronomical tides and surge from thermal expansion effects bringing moderate coastal flooding to the Bay Area and Pacific Coast. The worst flooding is expected along bayshore Marin County with numerous reports of flooding coming in over the last few days. If you have any photos or documentation of coastal flooding from October 2026 please share them with us on social media so we can better document
..issued at 215 PM PDT Tue Oct 27 2026 (Thursday through next Monday)
Seasonal to below normal temperatures continue through the long term forecast with rain potentially returning over the weekend and again next week. Broadly speaking, high temperatures on Friday will be in the mid to upper 60s across the interior and 50s to low 60s along the coast. Temperatures are then expected to cool, becoming below normal across the entire region, with highs dropping into the 50s to low 60s Saturday and Sunday. This drop occurs as the first upper level disturbance arrives late Friday into Saturday and brings another round of much cooler air with it. It also brings just enough moisture for light rain to spread across the region Saturday and Sunday. We aren't expecting wetting rains (> 0.10" of rain) outside of the Santa Cruz mountains, Santa Clara Hills, and the Santa Lucia Range. Trick or treaters may experience more drizzly conditions to some light rain but the worst looks to hold off until after 10 PM on Saturday. Heading into next week, guidance continues to show another deep upper level trough pushing inland but the timing of its arrival remains in question. Recent ensemble guidance shows more pronounced ridging and warming occurring Monday and Tuesday with the trough now arriving midweek. This correlates to warmer temperatures early next week with interior highs getting back into the upper 60s to low 70s. Rain chances start to increase late Monday into Tuesday with initial guidance showing light rain between a tenth of an inch to half an inch falling early next week. Shower activity continues beyond the end of the current forecast period so the exact amounts we are expecting will continue to fluctuate. Definitely worth keeping an eye on the forecast as we head into next week with our multiple chances for rain.
Coastal flooding concerns continue through Friday with tidal heights to be on the downswing Thursday and Friday. The current forecast has high tide peaking 1.7 ft (7.5 ft MLLW) above normal at 1:43 PM on Thursday, 1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 02:39 PM Friday 10/30, and 1.0 feet above normal (6.8 ft MLLW) at 03:44 PM on Saturday 10/31, including around 1.2 ft of surge residual partially attributed to impacts from El Nino. The caveat to this is that the anomaly has been running higher than initially forecast so the Coastal Flood Advisory may need to be extended into the weekend for all regions rather than continuing for just the North Bay.
..Issued at 215 PM PDT Tue Oct 27 2026 (Thursday through next Monday)
Seasonal to below normal temperatures continue through the long term forecast with rain potentially returning over the weekend and again next week. Broadly speaking, high temperatures on Friday will be in the mid to upper 60s across the interior and 50s to low 60s along the coast. Temperatures are then expected to cool, becoming below normal across the entire region, with highs dropping into the 50s to low 60s Saturday and Sunday. This drop occurs as the first upper level disturbance arrives late Friday into Saturday and brings another round of much cooler air with it. It also brings just enough moisture for light rain to spread across the region Saturday and Sunday. We aren't expecting wetting rains (> 0.10" of rain) outside of the Santa Cruz mountains, Santa Clara Hills, and the Santa Lucia Range. Trick or treaters may experience more drizzly conditions to some light rain but the worst looks to hold off until after 10 PM on Saturday. Heading into next week, guidance continues to show another deep upper level trough pushing inland but the timing of its arrival remains in question. Recent ensemble guidance shows more pronounced ridging and warming occurring Monday and Tuesday with the trough now arriving midweek. This correlates to warmer temperatures early next week with interior highs getting back into the upper 60s to low 70s. Rain chances start to increase late Monday into Tuesday with initial guidance showing light rain between a tenth of an inch to half an inch falling early next week. Shower activity continues beyond the end of the current forecast period so the exact amounts we are expecting will continue to fluctuate. Definitely worth keeping an eye on the forecast as we head into next week with our multiple chances for rain.
Coastal flooding concerns continue through Friday with tidal heights to be on the downswing Thursday and Friday. The current forecast has high tide peaking 1.7 ft (7.5 ft MLLW) above normal at 1:43 PM on Thursday, 1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 02:39 PM Friday 10/30, and 1.0 feet above normal (6.8 ft MLLW) at 03:44 PM on Saturday 10/31, including around 1.2 ft of surge residual partially attributed to impacts from El Nino. The caveat to this is that the anomaly has been running higher than initially forecast so the Coastal Flood Advisory may need to be extended into the weekend for all regions rather than continuing for just the North Bay.
(18z TAFS) Issued at 1114 AM PDT Tue Oct 27 2026
VFR conditions are expected for the TAF cycle, with the marine layer essentially being non-existant. The main challenges will be any cumulus or stratocu that develop, similar to what we are seeing from roughly the East Bay and San Mateo County into the northern portion of the Central Coast. Sites that are seeing cigs from these clouds are reporting values between FEW or SCT025-035, perhaps some rogue BKN at times. Any of those BKN025 or BKN030 cigs should be short lived or temporary. The only other forecast challenge for tonight, is if KSTS gets any radiational fog/stratus again. Opted to hint at it with what has happened the past two mornings, but confidence was too low to lock in LIFR conditions.
Vicinity of SFO, Some cumulus is popping up around SF Bay and generally appears to be tied to the terrain. Expecting VFR conditions to prevail through the period, with the onshore winds picking up t his afternoon. Sustained speeds should be around 12-15kt during the peak, with gusts up to 20-25kt possible. Winds begin to ease later in the evening, but will become breezy again mid to late Wednesday afternoon.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals, Satellite imagery is most interesting over the northern portion of the Central coast where we have a mix of stratus and stratocu being observed. TAF sites remain VFR here and are reporting mainly OVC cigs around 035-040. Models aren't really depicting this too well and with stratus kind of back filling from the northwest, current thinking is we should remain cloudy through the afternoon. If the clouds hold, we could still see BKN VFR cigs into the early evening. Offshore flow returns to these terminals tonight, which should clear out any lingering cloud should they still exist.
(tonight through next Sunday) Issued at 303 PM PDT Tue Oct 27 2026
Fresh to strong NW breezes strong breezes continue this afternoon across the waters, with isolated near gale force gusts occuring over the northern water waters. Seas will continue to build in response, leading to rough seas across exposed waters. Conditions will gradually start to improve Thursday as winds decrease to and seas subside.
Ca, Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM PDT Friday for CAZ006-505-506- 508-509-529-530.
PZ, Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM PDT Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
