, Issued at 1231 AM PDT Wed Sep 30 2026 (Wednesday through Thursday)
With ridging nosing in from the Eastern Pacific Ocean and a low across the Desert Southwest, the upper-level pattern will support northerly/offshore flow through Thursday. Northerly/offshore winds will be strongest during the overnight periods and in the higher terrain. Mt. St. Helena gusted to 48 mph Tuesday morning with gusts of 25-35 mph elsewhere, similar conditions can be expected during the overnight periods through Thursday morning. The combination of dry and windy conditions will result in elevated fire weather conditions across the higher terrain through Thursday. Temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees above normal with the marine layer struggling to form. If it is able to form, it will be compressed around 500 feet and remain confined to the coast. Minor coastal flooding for bayshore locations along the San Francisco, San Pablo, and Monterey Bays will continue during the highest high tides through Thursday.
..issued at 1231 AM PDT Wed Sep 30 2026 (Friday through Tuesday)
Global ensemble clusters are in agreement that anomalously high heights will be across our area through Tuesday. 500 mb heights and 850 mb temperatures are forecast to be near the 90th percentile for the first week of October, which is 588 decameters and 21 degrees Celsius, respectively. Saturday will likely be the peak of the heat as upper-level longwave ridging drifts in from the Eastern Pacific Ocean. Nonetheless, temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees above normal with moderate HeatRisk away from the immediate coast through Tuesday. The marine layer will likely still struggle to form; if it's able to form, it will be compressed around 500 feet and remain confined to the coast.
(12z TAFS) Issued at 443 AM PDT Wed Sep 30 2026
It's VFR except for patchy low stratus and fog /IFR-LIFR/ over the Monterey Bay and along the shoreline. A few additional patches of low stratus and fog /IFR-LIFR/ will develop during morning otherwise VFR will prevail today. Areas of coastal low stratus and fog /IFR-LIFR/ will redevelop tonight and Thursday morning.
Vicinity of SFO, VFR today, then stratus /IFR/ develops by mid evening and prevails tonight to 18z Thursday. Light northeast wind this morning, shifting to westerly 10 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Wind decreasing to 5 knots tonight and Thursday morning.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals, Low stratus and fog /IFR-LIFR/ develops through mid to nearly late morning then mixes out for the afternoon to early evening. Low stratus and fog /IFR-LIFR/ return tonight and Thursday morning. Light easterly to southeasterly cool air drainage winds in the morning, shifting to onshore near 10 knots in the afternoon and early evening.
(today through Monday) Issued at 430 AM PDT Wed Sep 30 2026
Hazardous conditions for small craft will continue through tonight mainly across the outer waters. Conditions will improve later this week and weekend as northwesterly breezes diminish to become gentle to moderate. Rough to very rough seas today will subside to moderate by Friday.
Ca, Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM PDT Thursday for CAZ006-506- 508-529-530.
PZ, Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.
Gale Warning until 9 AM PDT this morning for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
