, Issued at 228 PM PST Mon Nov 2 2026 (This evening through Tuesday night)
Widespread cloud cover is building in ahead of tonight's rain showers. Showers approach the coast late tonight as a surface low pressure system moves southwards offshore of Northern California. This is a cold-core system and will bring in a much colder airmass, resulting in well below normal temperatures at the surface. Highs will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s with the coolest locations across the higher elevations. So when will you start feeling impacts? The latest high resolution guidance shows the main rain band approaching the coast around ~5-6AM with showers reaching the coastal North Bay by 7-8AM and filtering into the rest of the Bay Area through the remainder of the morning. There is a low (< 10%) chance of thunderstorms with this first rain band moving onshore. Rain totals are forecast to be highest across the coastal North Bay Mountains from Sonoma to Marin with between 0.5-0.75". The rest of the North Bay and the Santa Cruz Mountains will see 0.25-0.5" while the remainder of the Bay Area sees less than a tenth of an inch. The heaviest rain will impact the morning commute so remember to slow down, allow extra time to reach your destination, and be prepared for slick roads.
The more interesting possibility, thunderstorm wise, is a secondary band of discrete showers that develops offshore after the initial rainband moves inland. These showers are characterized by a more discrete (individual) look and develop in a more unstable marine environment. Thunderstorm chances increase to 15-20% for the coastal North Bay and northern outer waters late Tuesday morning through late Tuesday afternoon as the second round develops and moves inland. The second round is interesting for a few reasons. The first is that the more discrete nature of the storms may allow for further strengthening and will increase the likelihood of thunderstorm development. Cooler air aloft will filter in behind the surface low and promote the formation ice crystals, should a storm develop, increasing the potential for lightning. Forecast sounding data suggests good low level shear in the lowest 0 to 1 kilometers with decent speed and directional shear. The stronger the shear the more likely the storm is to rotate which increases the potential for waterspouts to develop. Current thinking is that waterspouts will be possible offshore with this second round of storms. The caveat is that we will likely need some sort of instability generation (i.e. clouds clearing and warming the surface over the ocean) to instigate offshore thunderstorm development. If we do not see that clearing then the potential for thunderstorms drops off significantly. Either way, it will definitely be worth keeping an eye on the forecast and making sure you have weather alerts turned on on your phone in the
..issued at 228 PM PST Mon Nov 2 2026 (Wednesday through next Sunday)
Conditions warm up and dry out Wednesday through the weekend as the surface low dissipates/the upper level trough progresses eastward and ridging builds. This will see a return of more seasonal to slightly above normal temperatures in the upper 60s to 70s with patchy 80s across far interior locations. Overnight lows remain more mild in the 40s to 50s. Diurnally breezy winds return along the coast and across mountain gaps/passes but no major concerns with regards to this. Rain chances increase sometime around the 10/11 with the CPC and ensembles highlighting a likely prolonged period of rain across the West Coast mid-month.
(00z TAFS) Issued at 423 PM PST Mon Nov 2 2026
VFR continues tonight then cloud ceilings will steadily lower to MVFR Tuesday with showers developing mainly Tuesday up through frontal passage Tuesday.
Vicinity of SFO, VFR-MVFR with steadily lowering cloud ceilings and showers developing Tuesday. West wind 5 to 7 knots early this evening otherwise wind shifting to southeasterly 5 to 10 knots Tuesday morning then to southwesterly 12 to 22 knots 19z Tuesday.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals, VFR-MVFR with steadily lowering cloud ceilings and showers Tuesday. Onshore winds 5 to 10 knots becoming light and variable to light southeasterly tonight and Tuesday. Wind shifting to westerly near 10 knots late Tuesday afternoon and early evening.
(tonight through next Saturday) Issued at 239 PM PST Mon Nov 2 2026
Seas will continue to build across the outer waters tonight through Wednesday morning, becoming rough and bringing hazardous conditions for small craft. Gentle to moderate northwesterly breezes will increase and back tonight to become moderate to fresh southwesterly breezes ahead of an approaching cold front. Rain moves in Tuesday with this system, bringing with it a 15-20% chance of thunderstorms north of Pigeon Point. Moderate to fresh northerly breezes and moderate to rough seas will prevail Wednesday through Friday.
Issued at 1229 AM PST Mon Nov 2 2026
Hazardous beach conditions will be present at Pacific Coast beaches Monday and Tuesday as long period (15-19 second) northwesterly swell will bring an increased risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents. Waves can sweep across the shoreline without warning, pulling people into the sea from beaches, jetties, and rocks. Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf and never turn your back on the ocean!
Sarment
Ca, Beach Hazards Statement through Tuesday evening for CAZ006-505- 509-529-530.
PZ, Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Tuesday to 9 AM PST Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Tuesday to 9 AM PST Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.
