Issued at 923 AM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026
Stratus coverage is dissipating across the region at a much faster pace than yesterday. Temperatures remain seasonal to seasonally cool today with interior highs in the 80s and coastal/bay shoreline highs in the 60s to 70s. The interior Central Coast remains seasonally warm with highs in the 80s to 90s today. A warming trend remains on track for tomorrow with interior high temperatures in the upper 80s to 90s expected. Portions of the interior Central Coast will be in the upper 90s to low 100s. We continue to monitor the potential for thunderstorms late this weekend into early next week.
, Issued at 1229 AM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 (Today and tonight)
A 500 mb high pressure system centered over the southwestern states is forecast to continue shifting essentially westward to southern California and northern Mexico over the next 24 hours. A 500 mb trough of low pressure is over the eastern Pacific. Onshore winds will continue to usher stratus inland through morning, with diurnal surface warming mixing out much of the stratus by late morning and afternoon. Daytime highs will be in the 60s coastside, 60s/70s bayside to the 80s/90s inland.
Stratus returns tonight. Lows will be in the 50s except lower to mid 60s at higher elevations tonight.
..issued at 1229 AM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 (Thursday through Tuesday)
The aforementioned high pressure system will be nearly stationary on Thursday then it'll shift northeastward Friday through early next week. Daytime highs will be coolest along the coast with 60s, 60s/70s bayside and in the 80s/90s inland to the lower 100s far inland mainly over the southern interior. Night-time lows will cool to the 50s/60s.
Southerly winds aloft on the periphery of the high will rather quickly transport mid-level sub-tropical/tropical moisture to our forecast area beginning Saturday evening and night. There are hints in the GFS for example that a mid level moisture gradient to our southwest will straddle the coastal waters and offshore waters late Saturday/Sunday then again Tuesday. The intrusion of dry air above lifting moist air parcels/layers tilt the lapse rates much more steeply leading to convection. There may be a temporary increase in mid level instability traversing our forecast area early in the week. A sign for minimal potential, at this time at least GFS forecast soundings are indicating essentially no convective potential (mucape) over our forecast area.
(18z TAFS) Issued at 1140 AM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026
Satellite is currently showing stratus clearing from most terminals. Widespread VFR conditions are expected by 19-20Z today, except at HAF where it will remain IFR-MVFR throughout the TAF period. A northwest to west wind flow will persist at sites south of the Golden Gate, meanwhile North Bay terminals experience southwest to southerly winds. Fresh to moderate breezes are forecast between 10- 15 kt across our area. The marine layer returns again this evening after 02-03Z Thursday with more borderline MVFR-IFR ceilings at most terminals. Low to medium confidence (30-40% chance) on whether LVK and SJC will develop MVFR ceilings as it is dependent on if the marine layer deepens beyond 1000 feet.
Vicinity of SFO, MVFR ceilings are still hovering around the terminal, but VFR conditions are expected to prevail after 19Z today. Moderate breezes with embedded gusts increase through the afternoon. MVFR ceilings begin to fill in around 05Z Thursday followed by IFR ceilings around 08Z, which persist through 19Z Thursday. Medium confidence on the arrival and scattering of the stratus.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar general pattern to SFO. Winds ease slightly earlier and MVFR/IFR ceilings arrive shortly after SFO. Ceilings are expected to scatter out before SFO Thursday morning as well.
Monterey Bay Terminals, Stratus has cleared at MRY and SNS with VFR expected to continue through this afternoon. Guidance is in agreement that stratus will return early this evening (approx. 00- 03Z) and remain through late tomorrow morning. The marine layer will lower to 1200-1000 ft tonight which may result in the marine layer lowering to IFR overnight. LAMP guidance suggests LIFR conditions and reductions in visibility are possible early tomorrow morning but confidence is low to moderate. Breezy onshore winds are expected this afternoon/evening before winds ease overnight.
(today through Monday) Issued at 923 AM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026
Rough seas with heights between 8-12 ft continue to build into the weekend across the waters accompanied with a long period southerly swell. Northwest fresh to strong breezes with near gale force gusts persist into the weekend. Seas are expected to subside slightly (8- 10 ft) next week.
Issued at 430 AM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026
A Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect for Pacific coast beaches through Friday afternoon. Long period southwesterly swell will create an increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents, as well as breaking waves up to 10 feet. This will be especially true for south and southwest facing beaches with moderate to steep slopes along the North Bay, San Francisco Peninsula, and Santa Cruz coasts. Sneaker waves can sweep across the shoreline without warning, pulling people into the sea from rocks, jetties and beaches. Dangerous swimming and surfing conditions and localized beach erosion can be expected. Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf and NEVER turn your back on the ocean. Monitor local weather, surf and tide forecasts at www.weather.gov/mtr.
A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for minor high tide flooding from Thursday July 9th through Thursday July 16th. The combination of a perigean spring tide (lunar perigee on 7/13 and new moon on 7/14) enhanced by 3-6 inches of additional water from thermal expansion and accumulated sea level rise since the tidal datum was established (1983-2001) will bring high tides up to 1.7 feet above normal. This will lead to minor flooding of parking lots, parks and roads with isolated closures expected. For context, in June we reached 2.0 feet above normal.
Ca, Beach Hazards Statement through Friday afternoon for CAZ006-505- 509-529-530.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 4 PM to 4 AM PDT Thursday for CAZ006- 506-508.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM Saturday to 4 AM PDT Wednesday for CAZ505-509-529-530.
PZ, Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
