, Issued at 127 PM PDT Fri Jul 10 2026 (This evening through Saturday night)
Strengthening high pressure over southern California is shifting eastward toward the Desert Southwest. This has result in a gradual warming and drying trend across the interior and higher elevations that will persist through early next week. Meanwhile, a persistent marine layer around 1,000 feet will gradually compress to around 500 feet over the weekend and maintain cooler conditions near the coast. Thus, afternoon maximum forecast temperatures today will be in the upper 50s to 60s near the coast, 60s/70s around the bays and locations adjacent to the bays, and 80s to middle 90s inland. Meanwhile, the warmest interior locations of the Monterey County have a greater than 70% probability of reaching 100 degrees F.
Again for tonight, may see some mist/light drizzle at the coast as low clouds push locally inland into the coastal adjacent valleys. Otherwise, temperatures look to cool into the 50s overnight into Saturday morning for most lower elevations. However, the higher elevations (especially across the Central Coast) will only cool into the 60s to lower 70s as the aforementioned high pressure continues to build.
For Saturday, temperatures continue to warm by a few degrees with mostly Minor HeatRisk with pockets of moderate in the warmest interior valleys.
..issued at 127 PM PDT Fri Jul 10 2026 (Sunday through next Thursday)
Saturday night and into Sunday is when we forecast monsoonal moisture to advect around the western periphery of the high pressure over the Desert Southwest. This area of high pressure will continue to strengthen as it shifts northeastward into the Intermountain West Sunday and into Monday with Precipitable Water values reaching between 1.00-1.25" across much of the region. There remains a great deal of uncertainty in the model guidance with respect to the amount of MUCAPE (lifting mechanism) to support high-based thunderstorms. The mid/upper level moisture will be in place and we have fairly high confidence in this. Thus, expect widespread mid-to-high level clouds to stream across the region with virga (precipitation not reaching the surface). As the moisture profile deepens Monday into Tuesday we expect a slight chance of high- based rain showers across the Bay Area and Central Coast. All that being said, this is considered a low probability, high impact scenario if thunderstorms are able to develop, the fire weather threat is high. We will continue to monitor the potential for high-based convection closely!
With respect to temperatures, warm and dry conditions are likely to persist through much of next week when we see more widespread Moderate HeatRisk across the region Monday though Wednesday. The exception will be coastal locations as the marine layer is forecast to remain around 500 feet in depth. Maximum afternoon temperature warm slightly (especially inland) through early next week and so do the overnight lows, this explains the more widespread Moderate HeatRisk. The amount of mid-to-high level clouds may limit how warm the afternoons get but also would limit radiative cooling as well.
Beyond Wednesday, the 500 MB Heights and Anomalies indicate high pressure will remain parked over the Four Corners region and/or Intermountain West. This will keep temperatures slightly above seasonal averages with near normal precipitation.
(18z TAFS) Issued at 1153 AM PDT Fri Jul 10 2026
Currently VFR everywhere except for HAF and MRY. HAF may get a break from the clouds this afternoon, but it will be short-lived. Moderate west to northwest winds prevail at sites south of the Golden Gate meanwhile the North Bay remains more south to southwest. A compressed marine layer returns again today around or just after sunset, though it won't be as expansive as previous nights. As the high pressure to our south makes its way to the northeast, ceilings will be on the borderline between MVFR-IFR, with coastal sites having a higher chance of IFR-LIFR ceilings. Coastal drizzle is also possible early Saturday morning. Low confidence on whether SJC will develop an MVFR ceiling.
Vicinity of SFO, VFR through the afternoon with moderate to fresh westerly winds around 15-18 kt. Medium confidence on the arrival of stratus this evening. Westerly winds remain moderate overnight into the morning.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO. Winds may turn more SW and become light (~6 kt) overnight around 08Z until 15Z.
Monterey Bay Terminals, Onshore moderate breezes dominate the TAF period. VFR conditions prevail at both MRY and SNS after 19Z today. Delayed arrival of the marine layer tonight with MRY to get an IFR ceiling a few hours before SNS does. Drizzle associated with these lower ceilings is possible overnight into the early morning hours. Medium confidence on the exact timing of the stratus layer this evening.
(today through Wednesday) Issued at 434 AM PDT Fri Jul 10 2026
Northwest seas will be rough (9-11 ft) through the weekend and begin to subside to moderate (6-8 ft) by the beginning of next week. Strong northwesterly, near gale at times, will begin to diminish tonight with fresh breezes and strong gusts returning Sunday.
Issued at 450 AM PDT Thu Jul 10 2026
A Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect for Pacific coast beaches through this afternoon. Long period southwesterly swell will create an increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents, as well as breaking waves up to 10 feet. This will be especially true for south and southwest facing beaches with moderate to steep slopes along the North Bay, San Francisco Peninsula, and Santa Cruz coasts. Sneaker waves can sweep across the shoreline without warning, pulling people into the sea from rocks, jetties and beaches. Dangerous swimming and surfing conditions and localized beach erosion can be expected. Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf and NEVER turn your back on the ocean. Monitor local weather, surf and tide forecasts at www.weather.gov/mtr.
A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for minor high tide flooding through Thursday July 16th. The combination of a perigean spring tide (lunar perigee on 7/13 and new moon on 7/14) enhanced by 3-6 inches of additional water from thermal expansion and accumulated sea level rise since the tidal datum was established (1983-2001) will bring high tides up to 1.7 feet above normal. This will lead to minor flooding of parking lots, parks and roads with isolated closures expected. For context, in June we reached 2.0 feet above normal and in January we reached 2.5 feet above normal.
Ca, Beach Hazards Statement until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for CAZ006- 505-509-529-530.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM PDT Thursday for CAZ006-506- 508.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM Saturday to 4 AM PDT Wednesday for CAZ505-509-529-530.
PZ, Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
