, Issued at 201 PM PDT Fri Oct 2 2026 (This evening through Saturday night)
Satellite imagery this afternoon shows high clouds streaming over head and below that most of the stratus from this morning seems to have eroded. Webcams around Half Moon and San Francisco Bay show a few lingering low and mid level clouds. The marine layer this morning was around 500-800ft per the OAK sounding, which was on track with some of the hi-res models. Expect the marine layer to continue to compress leaving us at 500ft for tonight, which would limit stratus development. If it re-develops, it'd start around San Francisco's and expand south. The highest confidence for stratus re- development is around the Monterey Bay and the along the Central Coast with the potential for patches of dense fog. Any fog or stratus that develops should be short lived, leading to a warm and sunny Saturday.
Saturday kicks off the warming trend for the upcoming week, with a Heat Advisory going into effect at 11AM Saturday and running through 10PM Monday for the majority of the inland areas. Widespread Moderate HeatRisk with pockets of Major HeatRisk forecast are during this time. Temperatures might be at risk on Saturday if stratus doesn't develop, leading to warmer temperatures near the coast. This
..issued at 201 PM PDT Fri Oct 2 2026 (Sunday through next Thursday)
As noted above, a Heat Advisory will be in effect from 11AM Saturday and running through 10PM Monday. Models, including the NBM, have trended with warmer temperatures into early to mid next week even though an upper level shortwave trough tries to move through Monday. Given the trends, opted to expand the Heat Advisory into Monday, but held off on any decisions for Tuesday or Wednesday. Upper level ridging builds back in Tuesday through Thursday, with a potential pattern change occuring Friday or Saturday. Temperatures should start ease Thursday and with the trend continuing into Friday.
With all that being said, no records are in jeopardy as October is one of the hottest months for the region.
(06z TAFS) Issued at 1002 PM PDT Fri Oct 2 2026
VFR through the TAF period at most terminals with coastal sites having a higher chance of brief LIFR ceilings overnight. VFR conditions prevail across the region by Saturday morning with a lower chance for stratus to return tomorrow evening as the marine layer becomes more shallow. Medium confidence on the exact timing of LIFR ceilings at HAF and Monterey Bay terminals. Reductions to visibility are still possible at these sites, though confidence has decreased on the exact impacts and timing. Light onshore winds continue through the night, occasionally becoming variable due to a weak push of offshore flow. By Saturday afternoon, moderate onshore breezes around 7 to 12 kt prevail.
Vicinity of SFO, VFR through the TAF cycle. High clouds will continue to pass through the overnight hours. A brief bay breeze will settle in at SFO Saturday morning before shifting to its usual northwesterly flow with clear skies.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals, VFR with light winds shifting between a northwest to easterly flow. Overnight, east to southeasterly breezes prevail with medium confidence on the arrival of LIFR ceilings. Looking at current satellite imagery (as of 10PM PDT), dry air is impacting the robustness of the marine stratus deck. If LIFR ceilings develop, they will be short-lived. Low to medium confidence on fog development at MRY. By Saturday morning, clear skies prevail as onshore winds increase to 5 to 10 kt.
(tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 1002 PM PDT Fri Oct 2 2026
North to northwesterly breezes remain gentle to moderate into early week, allowing for slight to moderate seas to persist.
Ca, Heat Advisory from 11 AM Saturday to 10 PM PDT Sunday for CAZ006- 502-528-529.
Heat Advisory from 11 AM Saturday to 10 PM PDT Monday for CAZ503- 504-506-508-510-512>518.
PZ, None.
