Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Francisco CA

453 pm PDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Short Term

, Issued at 1232 PM PDT Mon Jun 1 2026 (This evening through Tuesday)

Upper level ridging today will bring warmer weather to the region, but it will be short lived. An upper level trough develops later this evening and then dives into southern California tonight. This will leave us caught between the ridge in the rough on Tuesday. Sensible weather will be breezy onshore winds this afternoon and evening, followed by a deepening marine layer. The marine layer is expected to be around 800-1000feet tonight, which will bring stratus to the coasts and some interior locations. Low temperatures for tonight will be in the upper 40s to low 50s where the marine layer occurs, the low the 50s to mid 50s for interior valleys, and in the mid 50s to low 60s for elevations within the thermal belt. Tuesday, temperatures will falter some due to the pattern shift. Highs will be in the upper 70s to upper 80s for interior valleys and areas of higher terrain, the upper 50s to low 70s along the Pacific Coast or San Francisco Bay.

Long Term

..issued at 1232 PM PDT Mon Jun 1 2026 (Tuesday night through next Sunday)

The upper level pattern becomes zonal midweek leaving us with onshore flow, stratus and perhaps patchy drizzle and fog at night, and warmer interior valley and cooler coastal high temperatures. While this occurs an upper level low moves across the Gulf of Alaska and then into the PacNW by late Friday into Saturday. As this happens, our pattern shifts to a trough. Confidence remains high that cooler weather will be on tap. Depending on where it goes will determine the outcome of weather. Right now ensembles favor a trough over the west, which supports the cooler weather and the potential

Aviation

(00z TAFS) Issued at 453 PM PDT Mon Jun 1 2026

A deeper marine layer is expected tonight with widespread MVFR-IFR CIGs. CIGs will be on the IFR-LIFR border along the coast with some potential for fog to develop along the Monterey Peninsula. Generally expecting CIGs to arrive by 08-10Z with CIGs lasting through late Tuesday morning. Moderate confidence on timing of CIG return with high resolution guidance supporting this timing. Breezy to gusty onshore winds continue through this evening, weaken overnight, and restrengthen during the day tomorrow. Stratus looks to return just after the end of this TAF period tomorrow evening.

Vicinity of SFO, Gusty onshore winds ease by late this evening with gusty winds returning during the day tomorrow. MVFR CIGs are expected overnight with some potential for IFR CIGs early tomorrow morning. IFR CIGs become more likely after 12Z with chances decreasing after 18Z. Expecting CIGs to fully clear by late morning with VFR conditions through that evening.

SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals, IFR CIGs expected overnight with some potential for LIFR CIGs to develop. Have bumped up stratus arrival to occur by 01Z given more progressive stratus arrival currently visible on satellite. The marine layer is slightly deeper tonight but the current guidance still leans towards IFR to LIFR CIGs tonight. Lower confidence that fog will develop but LAMP guidance indicates it is a possibility (especially after 12Z). Generally looking at conditions improving by late morning with a brief period of VFR conditions during the afternoon.

Marine

(tonight through next Saturday) Issued at 453 PM PDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Light to moderate winds are expected through the night and into Tuesday with easing seas. Strong northerly winds build into late Tuesday, and gale force gusts return in the mid week and last through the rest of the forecast. Seas build by the end of the work week.

Beaches

Issued at 1229 AM PDT Mon Jun 1 2026

A Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect today through 5 AM Tuesday morning due to an increased risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents caused by a long period southwest swell. On the buoys, this swell is being masked by stronger northwest swell waves, but careful analysis of the wave spectrum at the Point Reyes and Point Sur buoys reveals a southwest swell around 1 to 2 feet high with a period of 20 seconds. These long period swells result in increased risk of sneaker waves, potentially deadly waves which surge much further up the beach than expected and sweep unaware beachgoers into the ocean, and strong rip currents that can sweep the strongest swimmers away from shore. Never turn your back to the ocean! Inexperienced swimmers should stay away from the water. Observe the waves for 20 minutes before moving closer. Swim near a lifeguard if possible, and if caught in a rip current, swim parallel to the coast away from the current, and then at an angle to shore.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Ca, Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for CAZ006-505-509- 529-530.

PZ, Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Wednesday for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Wednesday to 3 AM PDT Thursday for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Tuesday to 3 PM PDT Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

Gale Watch from Wednesday afternoon through late Wednesday night for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Tuesday to 3 PM PDT Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

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