, Issued at 109 PM PDT Sat Jun 20 2026 (This evening through Sunday)
What a difference 24 hr makes, warmer conditions and increased sunshine. Afternoon visible satellite shows a well defined circulation spinning off the Central Coast. The nearby circulation, weaker marine layer inversion, and departing upper level trough led to increased sunshine along the coast and earlier clearing of AM clouds.
The rest of the weekend will feature rather nice sensible weather. Not a bad Father's Day weather wise. A weak shortwave upper level ridge will nose in late tonight and Sunday. The marine layer won't completely go away tonight, but it will be slightly more compressed due to building 500mb heights. Even with it being more compressed we will still a solid inland intrusion with clouds covering much of the inland valleys. Morning marine layer will roll back to the coast mid-morning, but coastal areas may struggle to get any clearing tomorrow. Away from the coast temps will climb a few more degrees with highs in the 70s to mid 80s.
..issued at 109 PM PDT Sat Jun 20 2026 (Sunday night through next Friday)
Long range forecast remains on track with the evolution of the longwave pattern. The large upper level area of high pressure over the Desert SW/N Mexico will strengthen and nudge northward. The building high will continue to compress the marine layer and continue the warming and drying trend. At this point the two warmest days appear to be Tuesday/Wednesday with highs 60s/70s coast/bays and 80s/upper 90s interior. The warming trend will also cause an uptick in HeatRisk back into Moderate category. Coverage of Moderate HeatRisk does not seem widespread enough to warrant a Heat Advisory at this point, but we'll be messaging heat impacts regardless. To round out the rest of the work week temperatures begin to moderate and then cool.
Previous discussions mentioned low chance high impact thunderstorm scenario next week, but latest model trends show this being less likely. Longer range guidance still shows a surge of higher PWATs moving north along Baja, but instead of continuing north they drift more NE. We'll still monitor, but chance for thunder is looking less.
(18z TAFS) Issued at 1139 AM PDT Sat Jun 20 2026
Widespread VFR conditions except for HAF where it will remain MVFR no later than 21Z today. Thereafter, VFR at all terminals through the afternoon as onshore moderate winds increase to around 12-15kt. The marine layer will return tonight after 04-06Z Sunday bringing low-end MVFR ceilings (BKN011-015) to most terminals. Low confidence on whether cloud bases will dip below 1000 feet, though the marine layer will be compressed tonight (between 1000-1500 feet) compared to previous nights. The stratus is expected to scatter out by 16-18Z Sunday.
Vicinity of SFO, VFR with gentle SW breezes through the late morning. Westerly winds increase to moderate breezes by 21Z and continue into evening hours. Medium confidence on timing of stratus tonight as it may arrive some time between 06-08Z. Onshore winds also ease with the arrival of the marine layer.
SFO Bridge Approach, Moderate winds around 12-14 kt will remain more W to NW through the afternoon with gusts up to 20 kt. These winds ease by 06Z Sunday. MVFR stratus is expected to arrive roughly an hour later than SFO (07Z Sunday) and scatter out at the same time (17Z Sunday).
Vicinity of OAK and SJC, VFR as west to northwest winds increase to around 14 kt by 21Z today. Higher chance for SJC to experience some gusts up to 20 kt this afternoon. The marine layer will impact both terminals tonight as early as 06Z at OAK and 10Z at SJC with ceilings around 1200-1500 feet. Onshore winds ease overnight and increase by Sunday late morning. SJC is expected to have their MVFR ceilings scatter out as early as 16Z followed by OAK at 18Z.
Monterey Bay Terminals, Onshore winds increase this afternoon with SNS experiencing moderate breezes around 14 kt and MRY remaining gentle (~10 kt). The coastal stratus deck will impact both terminals by 08Z Sunday, though there is medium confidence on the exact timing as they may roll in as early as 06Z. Ceilings will be lower than last night due to a compressed marine layer. Low confidence on whether they will dip into IFR status, but most likely will be on the borderline.
(tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 250 PM PDT Sat Jun 20 2026
Light winds will increase across the northern outer waters later tonight and persist through early Monday morning, leading to hazardous conditions for small craft. Otherwise, across the inner and outer waters winds will remain light to moderate. Long period southwest swell is likely to continue through the forecast period.
Issued at 308 AM PDT Sat Jun 20 2026
Long period southerly swell at around 15 to 17 seconds will persist for the remainder of the weekend, and increase to 17 to 19 seconds by the middle of the upcoming work week as energetic storms in the Southern Hemisphere continue to affect the California coast, especially for south and southwest facing beaches. Hazardous beach conditions are advertised, specifically for moderate to steeply sloped beaches along the Pacific Coast of the North Bay, San Mateo, Santa Cruz counties. A Beach Hazards Statement for Pacific Coast beaches continues through Wednesday afternoon. Be sure to check beach conditions before you head out. Sneaker waves will run up the beach much farther than other waves, potentially catching beachgoers by surprise and resulting in people being swept into the water. Rip currents are strong enough to pull the strongest swimmers away from shore. Swim near a lifeguard if possible. Stay back from the beach, and away from jetties, piers, beachside rocks, and other infrastructure near the water. Never turn your back to the ocean!
Ca, Beach Hazards Statement through Wednesday afternoon for CAZ006- 505-509-529-530.
PZ, Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 3 AM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
