, Issued at 213 PM PST Tue Nov 10 2026 (This evening through Wednesday night)
The short term weather pattern is dominated by a developing ridge axis over the northern Rockies with a series of storms lurking over the northern Pacific. For the time being, the ridge influence will win out and temperatures remain warmer than the seasonal average across the region. High temperatures today and into Veteran's Day range from the middle 70s to the lower 80s in the inland valleys, the 70s close to the Bays, and the middle 60s to lower 70s along the Pacific coast. Wednesday's morning lows range from the middle to upper 40s in the interior valleys to the lower to middle 50s along the Bays and into the coastal regions, possibly into the 60s along portions of the Big Sur Coast. Winds will remain light to gentle through the near term with a gentle onshore breeze possible at the coastal regions. High resolution models are showing some possibility of low clouds across the lower elevations of the North Bay and near the San Francisco Bay. However, they also showed a similar pattern for this morning's cloud cover, and the observed cloud cover ended up underperforming the model projections. Thus, confidence in the model output is low to moderate.
..issued at 213 PM PST Tue Nov 10 2026 (Thursday through next Monday)
Temperatures will dip a little on Thursday as the north Pacific storms edge into the West Coast, but remain above the seasonal averages for this time of year, with highs in the 70s for the inland valleys.
A pattern change will bring bouts of rain for Friday into the early part of next week as a series of storms move through the region. Most of the rainfall from these systems is targeted at the Pacific Northwest into the North Coast. For the Bay Area and Central Coast, the impacts are not expected to be as severe, at least for the initial rounds. The model solutions are converging onto two systems coming through the region within the seven-day outlook. The first system comes through beginning on Friday morning and comes through into the night with lingering showers into Saturday. Rain totals from this system are expected to be around 0.3-0.8" for the North Bay, 0.2-0.5" for the SF Bay Area, Monterey Bay region, and the Big Sur coast, and 0.1-0.3" for the inland portions of Monterey and San Benito Counties. A second system comes through Sunday into Monday, and while the rain totals are still being refined, the pattern looks to be broadly similar to Friday's system.
With it being so early in the rain season, potential flooding concerns will be minimal with the main impact being slick roadways. The possibility of strong gusty winds is also worth keeping an eye on. While wind gusts are not expected to reach Advisory criteria at this time, gusts of 25 to 35 mph can cause trees or branches to fall and may result in isolated power outages. Beyond the seven-day outlook, the pattern remains active with a lean towards rainfall totals above the seasonal average through late November. We will need to monitor what this will mean for soil saturation and the possibility for landslides through the next week.
Hazardous beach conditions are expected to return to the coast later this week with dangerous conditions forecast for the weekend. A series of storms within the north Pacific are resulting in a dynamic fetch scenario, where favorably aligned waves along a storm track continue to build as the storm advances. This will result in a very high swell of 20 to 25 feet at 17 to 18 seconds arriving in the coastal waters late on Friday into Saturday. Surf heights are expected to top out around 20 to 30 feet, with locally higher waves at favored locations including Mavericks Beach. A High Surf Warning this weekend for the Pacific coast is likely. The incoming swell will also result in a high risk of sneaker waves and rip currents. Sneaker waves can sweep unaware beachgoers into the water while rip currents can pull even the strongest swimmers offshore. All these factors combined will make it a very dangerous day at the beach, and we strongly advise all people to stay away from the beach during the weekend.
(00z TAFS) Issued at 619 PM PST Tue Nov 10 2026
Satellite imagery this afternoon is interesting as stratus snakes along the North Bay coast and blankets a decent amount of the coastal waters. The forecast challenge for tonight will be how much of the stratus infiltrates the region. Opted to keep the pessimistic TAFs for the North Bay and portions of the Bay Area, with fog and stratus burning off by mid to late morning. Then VFR conditions prevail.
Vicinity of SFO, VFR conditions should prevail through the overnight hours, with fog and stratus backing up on the west side of the Pacific side of the SF County coast. Models suggest IFR fog and low clouds move in around 10Z and then hold through mid to late morning. Then VFR conditions return.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals, VFR conditions are expected to continue through the TAF period. Offshore flow expected tonight before shifting back to onshore after sunrise.
(tonight through next Monday) Issued at 916 PM PST Tue Nov 10 2026
Gentle to moderate northerly breezes will persist over the coastal waters through Tuesday night. Southerly winds develop late Wednesday night out ahead of a deepening area of low pressure. Winds increase fresh to near gale by Friday, with gale force gusts expected for at least the near shore waters. The increasing winds will lead to steep fresh swell with a moderate sea state prevailing through midweek, deteriorating further late Friday and continuing into the beginning of next week as west/northwest swell builds with a longer period. Mariners with plans late in the week through the weekend should monitor the forecast with dangerous conditions expected.
Issued at 213 PM PST Tue Nov 10 2026
Beach Hazards:
No official Beach Hazard in effect. However, latest buoy reports still show a dynamic marine environment. Moderate periods will still make for an energetic surf zone today. Expect another round of Beach Hazard Statements midweek as longer period swells return. Hazardous beach conditions are expected to return to the coast later this week with dangerous conditions forecast for the weekend. A series of storms within the north Pacific are resulting in a dynamic fetch scenario, where favorably aligned waves along a storm track continue to build as the storm advances. This will result in a very high swell of 20 to 25 feet at 17 to 18 seconds arriving in the coastal waters late on Friday into Saturday. Surf heights are expected to top out around 20 to 30 feet, with locally higher waves at favored locations including Mavericks Beach. A High Surf Warning this weekend for the Pacific coast is likely. The incoming swell will also result in a high risk of sneaker waves and rip currents. Sneaker waves can sweep unaware beachgoers into the water while rip currents can pull even the strongest swimmers offshore. All these factors combined will make it a very dangerous day at the beach, and we strongly advise all people to stay away from the beach during the weekend.
When visiting the beach, continue to practice beach safety. Remember, waves can sweep across the shoreline without warning, pulling people into the sea from beaches, jetties, and rocks. Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure. Remain out of the water if you're not an experienced swimmer to avoid hazardous surf and never turn your back on the ocean!
Coastal Flood Advisory:
A combination of high astronomical tides and thermal expansion from warmer than normal water will result in tidal flooding concerns across Bayshore locations in the San Francisco, San Pablo, and Monterey Bays. At the San Francisco tide gauge, high tide is expected to be 1.4 ft above normal (7.2 ft MLLW) at 11:35 AM Wednesday 11/11, 1.4 ft above normal (7.2 ft MLLW) at 12:10 PM Thursday 11/12, 1.2 ft above normal (7.0 ft MLLW) at 12:49 PM Friday 11/13. These predictions include up to 1.5 ft of surge that will enhance the astronomical tide and flooding threat. High tide varies up to 90 minutes earlier or later along the Pacific Coast and through the San Francisco Bay, respectively. In addition, long-period swell will create hazardous conditions along the Pacific coast beaches with an increased risk of sneaker waves and rip currents.
These Spring Tides are due to a new moon on Monday, which is much lower in the sky this time of year compared to a full moon. In 2 weeks, the astronomical tides will be about 0.8' higher than this round, and the total water level could be more than a foot higher if we get SW winds and/or lower pressure. This combination would bring the total water level near the 1% annual exceedance probability (2.85' above normal), or a 1 in 100 year event. Something to keep an eye on for the week of Thanksgiving.
DialH/Flynn/MM/KR
Ca, Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM PST Friday for CAZ006-506-508- 530.
PZ, Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Wednesday to 3 AM PST Friday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Thursday to 3 AM PST Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.
