, Issued at 1206 PM PDT Sun Jun 14 2026 (This evening through Monday)
Visible satellite imagery shows that the majority of the marine stratus and fog has retreated back to the coast as of early this afternoon. SPC RAP analysis shows a weak shortwave trough encompassing most of CA centered over the Bay Area. The influence of this trough will allow for several degrees of cooling from yesterday across the interior locations. As a result, HeatRisk will also be decreasing, with more widespread Minor HeatRisk throughout the Bay Area and Central Coast, with some localized areas of Moderate HeatRisk reserved for the Central Valley and East/South Bay locations.
The aforementioned shortwave trough will quickly advect eastward overnight tonight with a ridge building in the Eastern Pacific. As the ridge builds and influences our region, temperatures will warm a few degrees tomorrow. But, HeatRisk will remain widespread Minor with localized areas of Moderate HeatRisk across the region on Monday. The marine layer is expected to be around 1500 feet again overnight tonight/tomorrow morning (similar to last night/this morning). Therefore the marine stratus and fog is expected to behave similar to that of last night/this morning.
High tide coastal flooding will continue to occur nightly along the low-lying areas of the Bayshore and the Pacific Coast through the middle of the week. Tide levels are forecast to rise up to 2.0 feet above normal into the middle of the week. This increase is driven by multiple contributing factors, including Sunday's new moon and lunar perigee, ~ 7 inches of tidal anomaly from storm surge and thermal expansion in the Eastern Pacific, and ~ 2 inches of sea level rise since vertical datums were established in the 1980s/1990s. While lower than the historic tidal flooding in January (which peaked at 2.6 ft), these tides could end up being the highest observed in the summer, beating the current record of 1.7 ft from July 2022.
..issued at 1206 PM PDT Sun Jun 14 2026 (Tuesday through Saturday)
The Eastern Pacific ridge will strengthen slightly, maxing out on Tuesday. This will allow for temperatures to warm another degree or two on Tuesday, but HeatRisk will remain largely unchanged (with widespread Minor to locally Moderate HeatRisk). Another pattern change is anticipated as we head into the latter half of the week as the ridge breaks down and a closed low forms off the coast of northern California. This low is expected to become an open wave by the end of the workweek, with the base of the trough moving through our area this weekend. The low pressure system will bring cooler temperatures to the region. As a result, HeatRisk will become widespread Minor with localized areas of little to no risk as early as Thursday. The ordinary marine stratus is expected to continue to blanket the usual spots through the majority of the week.
(18z TAFS) Issued at 1100 AM PDT Sun Jun 14 2026
Widespread coastal stratus begins to mix out increasing conditions to IFR- MVFR. Winds are generally less than 12 kts from the west to northwest. Afternoon breezes will increase to 12 to 15 kts, especially for the interior valley and eastern terminals.
Vicinity of SFO, Coastal stratus has conditions at MVFR to IFR nearby. Stratus will continue to mix out becoming clear by 19Z redeveloping this afternoon around 06Z. Winds from the west northwest at 5 to 15 kts.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.
Vicinity of SJC and OAK, VFR to MVFR conditions at KSJC as the stratus has moved out of the area. MVFR to IFR conditions, but improving, at KOAK. Conditions will continue to improve at KSJC and KOAK becoming sky clear by 19Z. Stratus will lessen conditions to IFR at OAK around 5Z and 11Z at KSJC. Winds from the west northwest at 5 to 15 kts.
Monterey Bay Terminals, IFR conditions near KMRY will continue to improve becoming MVFR around 19Z. Conditions at KSNS are MVFR continue to improve becoming sky clear by 19Z. Stratus will return this evening around 04Z. Winds from the west northwest at 5 to 15 kts.
(today through Friday) Issued at 846 AM PDT Sun Jun 14 2026
Expect continued southerly breezes and moderate seas with a low south- southwesterly swell persist across most of the coastal waters. Winds will remain fairly consistent to Monday as the seas subside. Fresh to strong north winds will develop in the northern outer waters towards the middle of the week.
Issued at 1230 PM PDT Sat Jun 13 2026
Long period southerly swell will continue through the weekend, especially for south and southwest facing beaches. Hazardous beach conditions are advertised, specifically for moderate to steeply sloped beaches along the Pacific Coast of the North Bay, San Mateo, Santa Cruz counties. A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect for Pacific coast beaches along the central coast and the Bay Area coast from late tonight through late Tuesday night. Be sure check beach conditions before you head out. Sneaker waves will run up the beach much farther than other waves, potentially catching beachgoers by surprise and resulting in people being swept into the water. Rip currents are strong enough to pull the strongest swimmers away from shore. Swim near a lifeguard if possible. Stay back from the beach, and away from jetties, piers, beachside rocks, and other infrastructure near the water. Never turn your back to the ocean!
Ca, Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for CAZ006-506- 508.
Beach Hazards Statement through late Tuesday night for CAZ006- 505-509-529-530.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for CAZ505-509-529- 530.
PZ, None.
