, Issued at 1200 AM PDT Sat Jul 4 2026 (Today and tonight)
The marine layer stratus is continuing to make its way inland, as the clouds come into the Sonoma County valleys, the Richmond- Berkeley area and down the Salinas Valley. Stratus will make its way into the coastal valleys through the night, retreating to the immediate coastal regions through the post-dawn and afternoon hours before returning this evening and overnight.
The weather pattern this Independence Day will be driven by a ridge set up over the Rocky Mountains and a shortwave trough that develops in the eastern Pacific, with California set up in a kind of transition zone between the two. Low temperatures remain in the lower to middle 50s in the lower elevations, and rise into the lower to middle 60s across the higher elevations. Today's highs are generally near to below the seasonal averages with highs in the 80s across the inland valleys, up to the lower to middle 90s in the warmest interior spots, the middle 60s to the upper 70s close to the Bays, and the middle 50s to lower 60s along the Pacific coast. Some breezy onshore winds develop in the afternoon and evening with gusts reaching 20 to 25 mph through gaps, passes, and the northern Salinas Valley. People planning to celebrate America's 250th birthday with fireworks or outdoor cookouts should remember their fire safety, obey any local burn bans, and keep a fire extinguisher nearby when playing with fireworks or cooking with open flames.
..issued at 1200 AM PDT Sat Jul 4 2026 (Sunday through Friday)
The long term outlook continues to show a balance between ridging across the Western United States and a series of troughs in the eastern Pacific through the next few days. A shortwave trough will knock down temperatures by a few degrees on Sunday with around five degrees of cooling within the inland valleys. In addition, as a pulse of moisture comes into the Bay Area and Central Coast, a few convective showers could develop Sunday morning and afternoon. High resolution convective models are showing the possibility for showers to come through the region, and the GFS K Index fields show a potential for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms as the pulse of moisture comes through. However, with dry slots aloft, particularly near the 700 mb level (around 10,000 feet above sea level) and no obvious lifting mechanism besides local topography, confidence is not high enough to introduce probabilities for precipitation or thunder at this time. The oncoming day shift will reevaluate local conditions and make any grid modifications as necessary.
Monday will not have a chance for showers, but otherwise conditions should be similar to Sunday. Towards the middle and later parts of the week, temperatures will gradually rise inland as the ridge strengthens and moves into the Desert Southwest, with a particular emphasis on Wednesday and Thursday when local temperature gradients range from the lower to middle 60s at the immediate coast to the upper 80s to lower 90s in the inland valleys, to the triple digits up to 105 within the warmest spots of southern Monterey County. CPC outlooks continue to lean towards temperatures above seasonal averages into the middle of July.
(18z TAFS) Issued at 1032 AM PDT Sat Jul 4 2026
Morning low clouds scattering out this morning out of most terminals, minus KHAF today. SCT-BKN high clouds near 20k ft and diurnal winds expected through the TAF period. MVFR/IFR cigs & vis for many return this evening; scattering occurs again by mid morning on Sunday.
Vicinity of SFO, SCT-BKN high clouds through the period with breezy onshore winds this afternoon near 20 kts at times. MVFR (locally IFR) cigs 07-18z with moderate confidence in cig timing.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals, SCT-BKN high clouds through the period with breezy onshore winds this afternoon near 20 kts at times. IFR (locally LIFR) cigs return after 02z Sun, clearing near the end of the TAF period with moderate confidence in timing.
(today through Thursday) Issued at 436 AM PDT Sat Jul 4 2026
Northerly flow will remain over the coastal waters thanks to high pressure anchored the north. Locally hazardous conditions will persist over the outer waters north of Point Reyes through early Sunday due to fresh to strong breezes. Sunday and into Monday gentle to moderate breezes are expected. More widespread stronger winds and seas will build starting Monday night and continuing through the week.
Ca, None. PZ, Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
