, Issued at 126 AM PST Sun Feb 8 2026 (Today through Monday)
Mostly clear skies are being observed across the Bay Area and the Central Coast this morning. As temperatures cool and reduce dew point depressions, fog is starting to develop being patchy in nature from the East Bay Valleys down the Salinas Valley and more areas of fog development in the North Bay Valleys. Widespread dense fog is not expected, but webcams will be monitored through the morning.
After daybreak, the added sunshine will help mix out any lingering fog my mid morning. Partly cloudy skies will remain out ahead of the next system to the North, but mostly sunny skies are expected for areas south of the Bay Bridge. Temperatures will increase into the mid 60s for the Bay Area (upper 50s to low 60s along the coastline) and a chance for low 70s in southern Monterey County. No major changes to the forecast regarding the rain chances today. The shortwave trough is still expected to pass over southern Oregon keeping the higher precipitation totals there and in the northern California. The (20 to 40 percent) chance for area in the forecast area will mainly be in the North Bay with only a couple hundredths or rain possible late this afternoon and evening. Any chance for a sprinkle south of the North Bay is less than 10 percent.
Cooler air will filter in behind this wave. Temperatures tomorrow morning will be a degree or two cooler than this morning, with another chance for patchy fog. Similarly, high temperatures will also be slightly cooler on Monday than today, but still remain a couple degrees warmer than seasonable norms. No precipitation is expected to start the work week.
..issued at 126 AM PST Sun Feb 8 2026 (Monday Night through Saturday)
The next upper level low will drop southward over the ocean and move over the California Coast Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday. Model runs are trending wetter with this system compared to earlier in the weekend. With precipitable water amounts trending just under an inch, there is a good chance that coastal areas could see about or just over a half an inch of rain, with some coastal higher elevations around an inch. While there will still be a difference in amounts with coastal areas seeing more, traditional rain shadowed areas could still even receive over a quarter of an inch of rain. Lastly, models are suggesting a potent 120+kt 300 mb jet will company this upper level low providing some synoptic lift enhancement. However, the Euro is suggesting the core of the jet would arrive over the Central Coast whereas the GFS is slightly more north toward the Bay Area. While CAPE values are not overly robust, model sounding are showing a strip of shallow, skinny area of instability. While confidence is not high, there is a slight chance for thunder Tuesday night. While the details may still be tweaked, it looks like a widespread soaking rain is in store for the Bay Area and the Central Coast midweek.
Cooler air advection with this upper level low will help provide more seasonable normal temperatures across the area by the middle of the week. Weak ridging is expected Thursday in to Friday for a brief respite from the rain.
Models are showing fairly good agreement in another system expected to move in over the weekend. While models are disagreeing on the specific timing and strength of the system, many ensemble members are suggesting that this system has a higher chance for a widespread soaking rain than the midweek system. And with colder air filtering in aloft, snow levels are expected to drop below 5,000 feet. How low they will go and whether or not the peaks of some of the higher terrain could see a dusting remains uncertain. But morning low temperatures this weekend could drop down below 40 degrees for some of the interior valley locations.
(18z TAFS) Issued at 1105 AM PST Sun Feb 8 2026
General Aviation Discussion, Currently, sites are either VFR or LIFR due to lingering FG and stratus impacts from this morning over the Bay area and North Bay. Satellite is showing signs of conditions improving as FG and low cigs quickly lift and scatter. Winds generally AOB 5kts and VRB directions. A weak FROPA will move through the area late tonight and early Monday morning. The weak boundary will reach the north bay around 06Z, brining MVFR/IFR cigs with it and turning winds to the north/northeast. Only terminal with chances of seeing brief sprinkles/VCSH will be STS. Coastal terminals could see slightly stronger winds, however most sites will keep light winds. Skies will remain mostly OVC AOA 10kft post frontal. This will lead to higher chances for VFR conditions as MVFR/IFR cigs move out. Low chances for FG/BR impacts due to higher clouds and drier air settling in.
Vicinity of SFO, Currently 10SM visibility with VCFG immediately east of the runways. Fog is expected to slowly scatter out through 20z, yielding to VFR conditions in the afternoon. SCt-BKN clouds based 4-6 kft MSL return around 00-02z, followed by increasing lower clouds based 1-3 kft MSL between 03-05z, yielding to periods of MVFR ceilings through 08-10z Monday. VFR conditions prevail thereafter as low clouds scatter out. Visibility during this time will generally be greater than 5SM, with spotty drizzle possible. West winds 5 to 10 knots through the San Bruno Gap in the afternoon, turning light and South around 04z Mon, then Northwest after midnight.
SFO Bridge Approach, Fog and low clouds below 600 ft MSL are currently dissipating from the approach path. VFR conditions until MVFR stratus returns to the area this evening and tonight through 08-10z Monday.
Vicinity of SJC and OAK, Fog and low clouds are quickly diminishing in coverage as of 19z with full VFR at both sites by 20z. Cloud bases 4-6 kft return to KOAK around 23-01z Mon, then to KSJC around 02-04z Mon, with periods of MVFR ceilings between 03-10z at KOAK and between 05-14z at KSJC. Clouds scatter out thereafter, yielding to VFR prevailing Monday morning.
Monterey Bay Terminals, VFR conditions with light and diurnal driven winds currently. Times of SCT-BKN at 1 to 2kft beginning around 00Z as the off shore stratus moves inland ahead of approaching FROPA. The weak boundary will continue MVFR cigs through the remainder of the period for MRY, and ~10Z for SNS. Winds become west to northwest after 10Z but remain light.
(today through Friday) Issued at 0859 AM PST Sun Feb 8 2026
A cold front will move southeastward over the coastal waters and bays tonight and early Monday. Seas will continue moderate today. Northwest winds will strengthen to a fresh to strong breeze today into Monday. A low pressure system will then approach from the west bringing rain to the coastal waters and bays Tuesday through Wednesday.
Ca, None. PZ, Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PST Monday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM PST Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 3 PM PST Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.
