Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Francisco CA

1141 am PDT Sun may 24 2026

Short Term

, Issued at 1107 AM PDT Sun May 24 2026 (This afternoon through Monday)

A strong marine layer and good onshore flow lead to another morning of cloudy conditions for most of the area. The influence of a large eddy off the coast of Sonoma Co may complicate clearing times, otherwise a similar set up as yesterday.

Highs today will range from the 50 along the coast, 60s for areas more inland, the low to 70s for the more interior areas, and only a few spots in the far interior breaking 80 degrees today.

The deep and expanded marine layer continues to keep humidities high for much of the area. This will really come into play overnight, keeping most of the overnight lows in the 50s and upper 40s, with only the far interior falling into the mid 40s.

The marine layer looks to deepen slightly into the night and will call for a stronger inland overnight and into Memorial Day, leading to widespread cloud cover and fair chances for drizzle. This will also cause slower clearing for the interior, and the potential for little to no clearing along the coast. Expect cool coastal conditions under cloudy skies with highs in the 50s. Then the areas slightly inland will hover around the mid to lower 60s, and the far interior will be in the 70s with possibly one or two spots breaking 80 degrees.

Long Term

..issued at 1107 AM PDT Sun May 24 2026 (Monday night through next Saturday)

A cold front will pass through the area early Tuesday with a low pressure following close behind. This will cause most of the region to see the coolest high temperatures of the forecast. The rush of even cooler air meeting with the already moist environment of the marine layer will cause good chances for drizzle across much of the Bay Area and Central Coast. Winds will be breezy and gusty across much of the CWA during this pattern change, with the higher elevations and favored gaps and passes seeing chances for gusts peaking around 45 mph. The national blend of models shows the front exiting the North Bay early enough in day and northerly dry winds around the low for some slight and isolated warming compared to previous days, while the rest of the region remains cool.

From there, the models are in fair agreement over another warming and drying trend as a modest offshore flow develops as the low travels to the east. Temperatures see a notable rebound for Wednesday as skies remain on the clearer side, with temperatures steadily warming into the next weekend.

Aviation

(18z TAFS) Issued at 1141 AM PDT Sun May 24 2026

A moderately deep marine layer continues to interact with a nearly stationary, weak, near surface cyclonic circulation west of Point Reyes. Incoming solar radiation warming, mixing and southerly wind component has mixed out the remaining stratus clouds from the San Francisco Peninsula to the East Bay. Stratus /MVFR/ continues over the North Bay due to the proximity of the aforementioned circulation and gentle upsloping winds. Meanwhile a separate layer of stratus /MVFR/ continues to steadily dissipate over the Central Coast. The highest probability of VFR across the forecast area is this afternoon and early evening.

Surface to lower level cool air advection especially beginning early Memorial Day will usher in a deeper marine layer stratus /MVFR/. Stratus returns tonight and Memorial Day, stratus likely slow to mix out on Memorial Day with chilly onshore winds. Patchy light coastal drizzle/rain tonight and Memorial Day.

Vicinity of SFO, VFR through 06z this evening then stratus /MVFR/ redevelops with mix out to VFR 20z on Memorial Day. Southwest wind 7 to 14 knots becoming westerly 10 to 14 knots tonight and Memorial Day.

SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals, Stratus /MVFR/ slowly mixing out through the afternoon, the highest probability of VFR is during this time. Stratus /MVFR/ returns tonight and Memorial Day. West to northwest winds 5 to 15 knots.

Marine

(today through Friday) Issued at 1107 AM PDT Sun May 24 2026

Light breezes and diminished seas will persist through Tuesday. Strong northwesterly winds from a developing system set to arrive on Tuesday will result in building rough seas for the second half of this week.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Ca, None. PZ, None.

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