Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Francisco CA

944 pm PDT Fri apr 3 2026

Short Term

, Issued at 942 PM PDT Fri Apr 3 2026 (Tonight through Sunday)

The breezier winds of the day and eased and the ridge pattern is building. Winds remain weak through much of the weekend because of the ridge, with the overall surface pattern being light but widespread offshore flow. Overnight lows will be around 5 to 10 degrees warmer than previous nights, with some high-level clouds helping to prevent extra radiational cooling.

Saturday's forecast has shifted slightly cooler in the most recent model updates. While highs will still be near records, the potential for record breaking temperatures have reduced. It seems like models are picking up on the higher-level cloud cover limiting the mid-day warming along with a reduction of the offshore winds.

Sunday sees clearing conditions, leading to that afternoon being the warmest of the forecast. Predicted highs look similar to previous forecast runs, with good chances for record high temperatures to fall.

Long Term

..issued at 942 PM PDT Fri Apr 3 2026 (Sunday night through next Friday)

Luckily, this ridge pattern exits into the workweek preventing any threats of long lasting heat. The jet stream turns to more of a zonal flow by Monday, allowing for better onshore winds and a reforming marine layer. Coastal and Valley fog and status look to return Monday morning as a result of this pattern change. These factors will lead to notably cooler conditions, with a 5 to 10 degree drop in highs. However these temperatures will still be above average for this time of year.

Temperatures slowly cool into the mid and late week as the onshore flow increases ahead of building trough and low pressure. Models are in fair agreement that rain returns to the area in the mid-week as this low moves along the coast. The models differ in the late-week path of this low, with some showing rain chances lingering into the weekend itself as the low loses momentum. The official forecast still has the low and its showers exiting Thursday night, but this will be something that could change in following forecast updates. What stays the same is that this still looks to be good chances for widespread light rain. Most areas will struggle to get past a few hundredths of an inch, while the highest amounts in the area (the Santa Lucias) are predicted stay below a half an inch.

Aviation

(06z TAFS) Issued at 942 PM PDT Fri Apr 3 2026

High confidence of VFR through the TAF period, with increasing confidence of a few high clouds tonight into Saturday. Generally light winds will persist through Saturday morning. Although LLWS magnitudes are not high enough tonight to note in the TAFs, the continuing strong winds aloft may make takeoffs and landings bumpy from the interior terminals. Saturday's winds look to be rather breezy across the region, with offshore winds in the interior, especially in the morning hours, counteracted by an onshore breeze in the coastal regions during the afternoon.

Vicinity of SFO, High confidence of VFR through the TAF period with possible high clouds overnight through Saturday. Breezy northwest winds continue into the late evening hours, becoming light overnight before the onshore flow resuming late Saturday afternoon.

SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals, High confidence of VFR through the TAF period with possible high clouds overnight through Saturday. Light drainage winds prevail overnight. At SNS, the southeast winds will pick up early Saturday morning before turning northwest late in the afternoon, while at MRY, onshore flow develops in the afternoon hours on Saturday.

Marine

(tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 942 PM PDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Winds and seas will gradually abate through the night and through the weekend. Light to moderate northerly breezes prevail this weekend and into next week. A low pressure system over the Pacific will approach the coastal waters and bays by the middle of next week bringing a chance of rain, strong breezes, and moderate to rough seas.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Ca, None. PZ, Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

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