Issued at 958 PM PDT Wed May 13 2026
Quick evening update. Pretty quiet weather across the Bay Area and Central Coast. Much less cloud cover this evening when you look at the last few evenings. There are two noticeable patches of stratus: one near Pacifica and SF Peninsula and the other near Monterey/Carmel By Sea. These two areas are likely to expand in coverage through morning with a few other patchy locations. Not expecting a big stratus push/development due to some weak offshore flow. A few obs in the hills are now showing N to NE flow above 1k feet.
No update needed
MM
, Issued at 1200 PM PDT Wed May 13 2026 (This evening through Thursday)
Skies are clearing across the region with a decaying cold front, the fringes of an upper level trough coming across the Pacific Northwest, helping to mix out the lower levels across the Bay Area and Central Coast. Some patches of stratus linger across the San Mateo Peninsula and the Monterey Bay region, but these patches should mix out through the afternoon hours. High temperatures remain seasonally average to cool with temperatures in the 70s to the lower 80s in the inland valleys, the middle 60s to lower 70s close to the bays, and the upper 50s to the lower 60s near the Pacific coast. A strengthening pressure gradient will develop as a Pacific high opposes a low developing in the Great Basin, with northwesterly gusts of 25 to 35 miles per hour developing this afternoon and evening along the coast, through favorably oriented gaps and valleys, and across the ridgelines. Winds should diminish late this evening in to the post-midnight hours on Thursday.
For Thursday, mild ridging should settle into the region and allow for a gradual warming trend, with highs in the inland valleys reaching the upper 70s to the upper 80s. Some low clouds could develop on the western side of the San Mateo Peninsula into the Monterey Bay region, with the stratus dissipating through the morning as an onshore breeze forms in the afternoon, although wind speeds should not be as strong as today's winds.
..issued at 1200 PM PDT Wed May 13 2026 (Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Temperatures on Friday should be similar to those seen on Thursday, but the winds could start picking up again as an upper level trough develops from the Gulf of Alaska into the Pacific Northwest, increasing the pressure gradient and causing gusts to rise to the 25 to 35 mph range along the coast, through gaps and passes, and at the ridgelines. Through the weekend, a part of that trough breaks off from the westerly flow and starts to stall over the Northern Rockies, further reinforcing the strong winds across the region and especially at the favored regions. On Saturday, NBM probabilities show good chances (above 80% probabilities) for wind gusts above 40 mph along the coastal regions; along the ridgelines of the Mayacama, Santa Cruz and Santa Lucia Mountains; and through the Salinas Valley between Salinas and King City. Wind Advisories may end up being necessary Friday through the weekend, as confidence in the extent and strength of the winds increases through the next couple of days. Beach Hazards Statements or High Surf Advisories may also be required due to strong and dangerous wind-driven waves.
As for temperatures, the incoming trough will interrupt the warming trend with temperatures on Saturday and Sunday dropping back into the 70s to lower 80s in the inland valleys. For the early part of next week, the warming trend will resume as upper level ridging returns to the West Coast. There continues to be some variability in the ensemble space depending on how that upper level ridging interacts with the lingering trough over the Rockies. The NBM seems to be running a little warm in that ensemble space, so in coordination with our neighbors and national centers, we've dropped the high temperature forecasts by around 3 degrees across our forecast area for the early part of next week. For next Tuesday and Wednesday, the current forecast calls for highs in the middle 80s to lower 90s in the inland valleys, the upper 70s to the middle 80s close to the Bays, and the lower to middle 60s near the Pacific coast. Judging from a close analysis of the ensemble clusters, the wiggle room for those inland highs looks to be around 3 to 5 degrees in either direction. The coastal and Bayshore highs are harder to say, particularly if the marine layer does return to those regions, as the resolution of the global ensemble models does not allow for a good depiction of those marine layer impacts.
(06z TAFS) Issued at 933 PM PDT Wed May 13 2026
VFR is expected to prevail for all but the Monterey Bay terminals through the TAF period. There is a slight chance for MVFR cigs at the Bay Area terminals but confidence is too low for mentioning in the TAF. Coastal terminals should expect breezy to gusty onshore flow to pick up once again by late Thursday morning into the afternoon.
Vicinity of SFO, VFR is expected to prevail through the TAF period with a slight chance of MVFR cigs developing in the pre- dawn hours but confidence is too low for mentioning in the TAF attm. Gusty onshore flow will develop once again Thursday morning through the afternoon and into the evening hours.
SFO Bridge Approach, Same timing as SFO for gusty onshore flow to develop in the morning.
Monterey Bay Terminals, Stratus is gradually developing in vicinity of both KMRY and KSNS at time of issuance. Good confidence in KMRY seeing MVFR cigs after midnight, with lesser confidence of IFR developing, so left it out of the forecast for the moment. KSNS is expected to develop MVFR cigs around sunrise but may develop earlier based on current satellite trends.
(tonight through next Tuesday) Issued at 933 PM PDT Wed May 13 2026
Expect hazardous marine conditions to begin to develop rapidly later this afternoon, first across our northern outer waters and quickly spread south. Near gale-force winds tonight and Thursday morning will become gale-force by the afternoon, with widespread severe gale-force winds by Friday across our outer waters. Storm force winds will be possible over the inner water by Friday and continue into the weekend. The strong winds will drive seas between 12 to 17 feet. Expect hazardous conditions for mariners and dangerous conditions for small crafts the weekend into the beginning of next week.
Ca, None. PZ, Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Thursday for Mry Bay.
Gale Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening for Mry Bay.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
Gale Warning from 9 AM Thursday to 3 PM PDT Friday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.
Gale Watch from Friday afternoon through Sunday evening for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm- Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Gale Warning from 9 AM Thursday to 9 AM PDT Friday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
Gale Watch from Friday morning through Sunday evening for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.
Gale Warning from 9 PM Thursday to 9 AM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.
