Issued at 927 PM PST Tue Feb 24 2026
Updated the forecast to account for drier trend and slight decrease in coverage through the overnight hours. Most notable challenge will be the development and coverage of fog overnight through much of Wednesday morning, and would not be surprised if a Dense Fog Advisory is necessary overnight, especially for the North Bay, with lesser confidence for the East Bay and South Bay. Wednesday will be cloudy, mild and muggy with temperatures gradually warming through the remainder of the work week.
, Issued at 241 PM PST Tue Feb 24 2026 (This evening through Wednesday)
The main rain band has been pointed at far northern Sonoma county and points northward into Mendocino and Humboldt counties for much of the day. Heavy rain has been confined to the Sonoma hills with 1-2 inch rain amounts so far with 0.25-0.50 for the Sonoma county valleys. South of Santa Rosa rain amounts have been a tenth or less down through Marin county and towards the Golden Gate. Little or no rain so far today south of San Francisco with amounts generally a trace to a few hundredths.
Even with extensive cloud cover the airmass is warm and mild as temperatures have warmed into the lower 70s for the Central Coast with widespread 60s across the Bay Area. Where rain is falling, in places like Santa Rosa we are seeing readings in the upper 50s.
The short term models are adamant that the front will begin to shift southward over the next several hours with increasing rain coverage for the Bay Area evening commute. However, as the front shifts southward it will lose upper support and the front will weaken with only light rain forecast south of San Francisco this evening and little or no rain for the Santa Clara Valley and interior Central Coast.
The juicy airmass and light winds could lead to some patchy valley fog formation in the valleys overnight and for the start of the Weds morning commute. Temps will remain mild overnight in the 50s for most locations. High pressure rebuilds on Weds with highs well into the 60s and lower 70s for a springlike feel to the day.
..issued at 241 PM PST Tue Feb 24 2026 (Wednesday night through next Monday)
Building ridge will keep overnight lows mild for late February in the 50s with patchy valley fog formation. Daytime highs Thursday through Saturday will remain unseasonably mild with highs upper 60s to mid 70s for most of the Bay Area and even close to 80 for interior Monterey county.
Next forecast change of note will occur Sunday and Monday with high confidence for a cooling trend back closer to normal readings. This will be in response to an upper low passing over NorCal in the vicnity of Cape Mendocino. While some light rain showers are possible, confidence is low on any meaningful precip with the main impact to bring a cooling trend back to more normal temperatures. Long range trend for the first week of March doesnt show signs of any moderate to strong storms but the pattern remains somewhat active/progressive with no strong ridging either.
(06z TAFS) Issued at 927 PM PST Tue Feb 24 2026
Scattered light rain will persist through the overnight across the North Bay with less coverage farther south into the Bay Area and East Bay. Expect MVFR/IFR cigs to persist through a majority of the TAF period with the exception of KSJC and KLVK. Moderate confidence in LIFR vis from dense fog for the North Bay terminals overnight and continuing through much of the morning, with some potential at KSJC and KLVK as well, but lower confidence with those two sites.
Vicinity of SFO, Expect MVFR cigs to persist through the TAF period behind the exiting system to the east during the day with chances 70% or higher through the daytime hours with relatively light winds.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals, Currently VFR and expected to remain so until closer to sunrise, with high confidence for MVFR cigs to persist for the remainder of the TAF period from onset. Lower confidence in fog development this far south but patchy dense fog may limit visibility at times especially in the morning hours.
(tonight through next Monday) Issued at 927 PM PST Tue Feb 24 2026
Light rain is winding down over the outer waters and will persist across the coastal waters until late tonight before shifting almost entirely onshore after midnight. Wind and seas will follow suit into the early morning Wednesday with relatively calm seas through the remainder of the work week. Wave heights will increase slightly by the end of the week into the weekend, likely remaining below advisory levels.
Ca, None. PZ, None.
