Issued at 815 PM PST Sat Nov 14 2026
Extremely high surf conditions have impacted the coastal regions today with reports of flooding along the coast in Pacifica and damage to the Capitola Wharf and debris along shoreline roads south of Carmel-by-the-Sea. The High Surf Warning will expire at 4 AM Sunday, with a High Surf Advisory likely to follow.
The model trend for a more impactful system on Wednesday and Thursday continues with the forecast rainfall, expected wind speeds, and thunderstorm probabilities all increasing. Model output is starting to converge on a significant low pressure system that may take a direct track over the SF Bay Area through that period. More information will be coming in the full AFD update.
DialH
, Issued at 103 PM PST Sat Nov 14 2026 (This evening through Sunday night)
In wake of yesterday's frontal passage, isolated to scattered rain showers are forecast to persist across the North Bay and parts of the Bay Area through early evening as many of the CAMs (Convection- Allowing Models) are indicating them to persist. Otherwise, expecting a mix of Sun and clouds throughout the day with temperatures slightly below seasonal averages.
This is all ahead of our next cold front that is expected to move across the North Bay between 8 AM and 4 PM Sunday, the Bay Area and the Santa Cruz Mountains between noon and 8 PM, and the Central Coast between 4 PM and midnight Monday morning. There are subtle differences in the timing of the front's arrival, resulting in broader windows of expected arrival times. Southerly winds are forecast to increase ahead of the front, although they are not expected to be as strong as with the previous system. The potential for thunderstorms is also lower.
Rain totals will range from 0.50"-1.0" across most of the Bay Area, Santa Cruz County, and the Santa Lucia range, 1.0"-1.5" in the Sonoma County coastal ranges, and 0.25"-0.50" across the interior portions of the East Bay and the Central Coast. Winds will be elevated, but will not be as strong as Friday's system with southerly gusts of 20 to 30 mph possible across the SF Bay Area, up to 45 mph along the coast and in the higher elevations. In wake of the frontal passage, expecting winds to shift out of the northwest and ease.
See the BEACHES section for more details, but to quote: "These waves bring tremendous power that will overpower anyone in the water and cause coastal erosion. The risk of drowning is very high this weekend. Do not go in the water, avoid climbing on the rocks or leaning over seawalls, and never turn your back on the ocean."
..issued at 103 PM PST Sat Nov 14 2026 (Monday through next Friday)
Another break in rainfall is expected late in the day on Monday and into Tuesday with a mix of Sun and clouds. By Tuesday morning, there is the potential for cold weather products (Frost Advisories and/or Cold Weather Advisories) as morning lows are forecast to be in 30s across the North Bay Valleys, southern Salinas Valley, and 40s elsewhere across the Bay Area and Central Coast.
Yet another system comes into the region Tuesday afternoon/evening and moves southward across the north Central Coast through Wednesday and potentially lingering into early Friday morning. It is still too early to speak about rainfall amounts, yet there is increasing confidence (as of this writing) of higher rainfall amounts compared to the Sunday/Monday system. There also appears to be greater potential for thunderstorms and stronger winds ahead of the frontal boundary. Best written by my colleague: "The flooding concerns will increase through the next few days as soils saturate and creeks and streams reach bankfull. Beyond the seven-day outlook, the weather pattern remains active with a lean towards rain totals above seasonal averages into the last week of November.
(06z TAFS) Issued at 932 PM PST Sat Nov 14 2026
Currently VFR across the board with conditions to deteriorate by mid to late Sunday morning. A cold front will approach the region overnight with light, southerly winds continuing. Winds strengthen slightly ahead of frontal passage before shifting westerly to northwesterly after passage occurs. Rain chances increase first across the North Bay early Sunday morning and by the late morning/afternoon hours for the rest of the Bay Area. Rain will reach the Central Coast later in the evening. Reductions in visibility and decreases in ceiling heights are likely as the bulk of the rain moves in. Showers will become more scattered in nature by late Sunday and continue into Monday.
Vicinity of SFO, VFR. MVFR conditions return by late tomorrow morning/early afternoon as a cold front and rain approach the region. Southerly winds will gradually shift west to northwesterly throughout the day. Rain looks to continue through the end of the TAF period, becoming more scattered in nature around or after 12Z Monday.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals, VFR. Moderate southerly winds continue through the short term with winds shifting more northwesterly towards the end of the TAF period. Rain chances increase after 00Z and continue through the rest of the night. Reductions in visibility and ceiling heights are likely as showers start to arrive.
(tonight through next Friday) Issued at 932 PM PST Sat Nov 14 2026
Moderate to fresh southerly winds continue across the coastal waters as a cold front approaches from the north. Expect fresh to strong winds to become more widespread overnight and continuing into Sunday with widespread rain. Very hazardous marine conditions and high seas continue into early next week. Significant wave heights have come down slightly from their earlier peak but will remain between 15 to 20 feet through Monday before subsiding Tuesday. Wave heights build again Wednesday into late week as a strong low pressure system moves through the coastal waters and brings widespread rain, near gale to gale force winds, and potential for thunderstorms.
Issued at 932 PM PST Sat Nov 14 2026
High Surf Warning: A High Surf Warning remains effect through 4AM Sunday. Pretty impressive buoy reports this morning with the highest sig waves exceeding 25-30 ft. Occasional sets of 40-50 ft waves are likely at favored breakpoints (i.e. Mavericks). Swell has peaked and is on the downtrend but wave heights will remain elevated overall. A High Surf Advisory will be issued to replace the High Surf Warning when it expires at 4AM Sunday. A new round of very high swell arrives Monday with the High Surf Advisory to continue from 4AM Sunday through early Tuesday morning. These waves bring tremendous power that will overpower anyone in the water and cause coastal erosion. The risk of drowning is very high this weekend. Do not go in the water, avoid climbing on the rocks or leaning over seawalls, and never turn your back on the ocean.
Ca, High Surf Warning until 4 AM PST Sunday for CAZ006-505-509-529- 530.
PZ, Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 3 PM PST Sunday for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST Monday for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
