, Issued at 1208 AM PST Thu Nov 12 2026 (Today and tonight)
The West Coast sits between a ridge centered over the Northern Rockies, a deep low pressure system moving in from the waters south of Alaska, and a satellite trough digging into the waters off of southern California. Through the course of the day, the system of troughs will slowly nudge the ridge axis northwards into the central parts of Canada. For now, warm and dry conditions will continue but there will be a noticeable dip in the high temperatures ahead of more unsettled weather in the medium to long term. Morning lows lie in the middle to upper 40s for the inland valleys and the lower to middle 50s for the coastal and Bayshore regions. Highs will range in the lower to middle 60s across the inland valleys, the upper 60s to lower 70s close to the Bays and the lower to middle 60s along the Pacific coast. Afternoon winds will be noticeably breezier than what we saw yesterday as the incoming lows tighten the pressure gradient; gusts of 25 to 35 mph are possible along the coast and through favored gaps and passes. Prefrontal showers are possible along the coastal ranges tonight into Friday morning, a precursor to an opening storm door through the rest of the forecast.
Hazardous beach conditions are forecast for the Pacific coast through the next couple of days with dangerous conditions expected to develop over the weekend. A Beach Hazards Statement is currently in effect for the Pacific coast for breaking waves 15 to 20 feet along with an increased risk of sneaker waves and rip currents, while High Surf Warnings will go into effect Friday night into early Sunday morning due to surf heights of 25 to 35 feet accompanied by a high risk of sneaker waves and rip currents. In addition, coastal flooding concerns due to high tides persist at the bayshore locations along San Pablo, San Francisco, and southern Monterey Bays through Friday, along with coastal flooding along the Pacific coast due to wave runup impacts on Saturday. See the BEACHES section for more details.
..issued at 1208 AM PST Thu Nov 12 2026 (Friday through Wednesday)
A pattern change will bring bouts of rain beginning Friday into next week as a series of storms move through the region. Most of the rainfall from these systems is targeted at the Pacific Northwest into the North Coast. For the Bay Area and Central Coast, the impacts are not expected to be as severe, at least for the initial rounds. The model solutions are converging onto three systems coming through the region within the seven-day outlook. The first system comes into the North Bay Friday morning, extending into the SF Bay region in the late morning and early afternoon hours before dissipating as it comes into the Central Coast later in the afternoon, with lingering showers into the night. Rain totals from this system are expected to be around 0.5-1.2" for the North Bay, 0.3-0.8" for the SF Bay Area, Monterey Bay region, and the Big Sur coast, and 0.1-0.5" for the inland portions of Monterey and San Benito Counties. A second system comes through Sunday into Monday, and while the rain totals are still being refined, the pattern looks to be broadly similar to Friday's system. Towards the end of the seven-day outlook, model output is showing a third system coming in for the middle of next week, with the exact details still uncertain.
With it being so early in the rain season, potential flooding concerns will be minimal with the main impact being slick roadways. The possibility of strong gusty winds is also worth keeping an eye on. While wind gusts are not expected to reach Advisory criteria at this time, gusts of 25 to 35 mph can cause trees or branches to fall and may result in isolated power outages or slicker roads as leaves fall from trees and get wet. Another concern will be the risk of thunderstorms embedded within the main rain band and potentially in the post-frontal environment. The cold low will be centered to our north, but will still bring cool enough air aloft to bring the MUCAPE values up to 100-300 J/kg. That would be within the top 10% of soundings at Oakland for practically any time of year. There is also strong shear aloft enhanced by the region coming within the left exit region of a jet streak visible at the 500 mb level, where the decelerating winds and vertical circulation support an area of upper level divergence, which would support convective activity in the area. A slight (15%) chance of thunder has been added to the SF Bay Area for Friday morning and afternoon as a result. This may need to be adjusted as the forecast evolves and further model runs come in.
Beyond the seven-day outlook, the pattern remains active with a lean towards rainfall totals above the seasonal average through late November. We will need to monitor what this will mean for soil saturation and the possibility for landslides through the next week.
(12z TAFS) Issued at 322 AM PST Thu Nov 12 2026
Patchy stratus dominates the satellite picture across the coast, although with southerly winds most terminals are avoiding ceilings. There may be some passing MVFR impacts from these clouds through the morning hours. Today is a transition day as a cold front gradually approaches. While the main wind and rain impacts are just outside the current TAF window, we will see high clouds roll in and eventually lower as southerly winds gradually increase tonight.
Vicinity of SFO, The subtle wind shift from SSE to SSW over the last 24 hours has made a big difference. The Santa Cruz mountains are now blocking the clouds from reaching the terminal, and there is a 70% chance VFR conditions persist through the morning. The bigger story today is the southerly winds. As the cold front approaches the gradient will tighten, and it's very likely the southerly wind direction persists through the day. By Friday morning the southerly winds will increase above 10 kts before shifting back westerly in the afternoon as showers push through.
SFO Bridge Approach, SJC and the entire approach are also clear and should stay that way this morning..
Monterey Bay Terminals, The short term forecast is tricky. MRY is nearly surrounded by MVFR ceilings, but a small clearing has remarkably kept the terminal VFR through the night. There's no guarantee that good luck will continue, and I included a tempo group for MVFR ceilings through 16Z. After any low clouds clear high cloud coverage will gradually increase before mid clouds move in late in the TAF window. As with the other terminals, winds will tend more southerly as the day goes on and the bigger weather day is Friday with strong southerly winds and showers with frontal passage.
(today through Tuesday) Issued at 322 AM PST Thu Nov 12 2026
As a cold front approaches the coast, fresh to strong southerly winds will increase to near gale force over the next 24 hours. After the front passes on Friday winds will shift to westerly and decrease to a moderate breeze. Meanwhile WNW swell from a distant hurricane force low will build to very high with significant wave heights up to 25 feet by Saturday morning. Wave heights decrease slightly Sunday before another round of high seas moves into the coastal waters on Monday. Small crafts will sustain heavy damage and may not survive in these extreme sea states.
Issued at 1252 PM PST Wed Nov 11 2026
Beach Hazards Statement/High Surf Warning:
A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect through 6 PM Friday, at which point it gets replaced with a High Surf Warning through 4 AM Sunday. A series of hurricane force low pressure systems will impact the NE Pacific through early next week. These storms will produce very high NW swell that will impact the coast with very hazardous conditions. Initially the forerunners will bring strong rip currents and sneaker waves through Friday, while the breaking wave amplitude builds to 15-20 feet. As the peak of the swell arrives on Saturday, breaking waves will reach up to 35 feet. Occasional sets of 40-50 ft are likely at favored breakpoints. These waves bring tremendous power that will overpower anyone in the water and cause coastal erosion. The risk of drowning is very high this weekend. Do not go in the water, avoid climbing on the rocks or leaning over seawalls, and never turn your back on the ocean. Wave amplitude will abate somewhat on Sunday before a new round of very high swell arrives Monday.
Coastal Flood Advisory (Thursday through Friday):
A combination of high astronomical tides and thermal expansion from warmer than normal water will result in tidal flooding concerns across Bayshore locations in the San Francisco, San Pablo, and Monterey Bays. At the San Francisco tide gauge, high tide is expected to be 1.3 ft above normal (7.1 ft MLLW) at 12:10 PM Thursday 11/12, 1.5 ft above normal (7.3 ft MLLW) at 12:49 PM Friday 11/13. These predictions include up to 1.8 ft of surge that will enhance the astronomical tide and flooding threat. High tide varies up to 90 minutes earlier or later along the Pacific Coast and through the San Francisco Bay, respectively. In addition, long-period swell will create hazardous conditions along the Pacific coast beaches with an increased risk of sneaker waves and rip currents.
Coastal Flood Advisory (Saturday):
The swell on Saturday brings a different variety of coastal flooding as very large breaking waves pile up along the Pacific coast. Research shows wave run-up increases the mean water level by 10-20% of the breaking wave height across exposed beaches. This higher water elevation sets the stage for large waves to crash over sea walls and run up beaches onto adjacent infrastructure, particularly during high tide.
Ca, Beach Hazards Statement through Friday afternoon for CAZ006-505- 509-529-530.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM PST Friday for CAZ006-506-508- 530.
Coastal Flood Advisory from midnight Friday night to 6 PM PST Saturday for CAZ006-505-509-529-530.
High Surf Warning from 6 PM Friday to 4 AM PST Sunday for CAZ006- 505-509-529-530.
PZ, Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM PST Friday for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.
Gale Warning from 9 AM to 3 PM PST Friday for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm- SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 9 AM PST Friday for Mry Bay.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Friday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
Gale Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM PST Friday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM PST Friday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
