, Issued at 1210 AM PDT Sat Mar 14 2026 (Today and tonight)
The high clouds from yesterday are slowly clearing as marine stratus starts to form along the coast from Davenport to Pt. Reyes. These low clouds will gradually advect south towards the Central Coast before clearing in the late morning hours. Despite the increased afternoon sunshine, temperatures will be similar to Friday thanks to a weak short wave disturbance taking a bite out of the ridge. This will also help support stronger onshore winds, particularly along the coast. Overall it will be another nice day across the Bay Area and Central Coast before the warmer weather moves in.
..issued at 1210 AM PDT Sat Mar 14 2026 (Sunday through Friday)
The ridge starts to build in earnest on Sunday. The return of high clouds will help dull the heat impacts a bit before the ridge reaches its full strength and clouds clear on Monday. At that point the pattern is pretty steady, with temperatures 20-30 degrees above normal for this time year from Monday through Friday. That translates to highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s along the coast, and upper 80s to mid 90s inland. The forecast trend has been ever so slightly cooler for the first half of the week, but a little warmer in the second half. The ridge axis is still expected to slide east of us on Tuesday, but it then strengthens over the SW mid week, keeping the heat impacts pretty consistent through Friday.
The upper level statistics all continue to point to record breaking heat. Ensembles show high confidence that the 850mb temp will get close to 20C, and the 500mb height should reach 5900m. These are both higher than we've ever observed in March since routine weather balloon launches began in the late 1940s. When combined with offshore winds and the long duration of this heat wave, it's hard to imagine we won't break a few monthly temperature records. That being said, it's still March. The nights are much longer than in Summer, and that will allow low elevation temperatures to drop back into the upper 50s/low 60s. This will help reduce the cumulative heat impacts this week, and we are only expecting moderate HeatRisk outside of the mountains.
As fine fuels dry this week, the potential for grass fires will increase. Offshore winds will be moderate at times. If you are participating in any outdoor activities (camping, offroading, hiking, etc) exercise caution when using fire and be aware that the risk of grass fires will be elevated.
(12z TAFS) Issued at 220 AM PDT Sat Mar 14 2026
Upper level clouds/cirrus stream over the region early this morning with another quasi-marine layer with low stratus. Unlike 24 hours fog appears to be less likely this morning. Some lower cigs will impact the coastal terminal (SFO/HAF/MRY) through this morning. Expecting mainly VFR this afternoon. Uncertainty develops for Monterey Bay area later this afternoon as guidance suggest an early push of stratus before mixing out when offshore flow develops late tonight.
Vicinity of SFO, Shallow cloud deck squeezing through the GAP will be problematic heading into the AM rush. Will carry a tempo to allow for occasional cigs pushes over the terminal. Breezy onshore through the day with VFR developing.
SFO Bridge Approach, VFR.
Monterey Bay Terminals, Low cigs for MRY. Have allowed for an early morning push of cigs into SNS as well. VFR by late morning. Low chance 30-40% chc of cigs returning 02-09Z tonight before mixing out as offshore flow kicks in.
(today through Thursday) Issued at 220 AM PDT Sat Mar 14 2026
Persistent high pressure over the Eastern Pacific will maintain fresh to moderate north/northwest breezes through the weekend. The stronger winds will result in very steep fresh swell. Winds and seas ease in the inner waters by Sunday afternoon, and the rest of the waters by mid Monday. Mostly calm conditions will then last through the rest of the forecast period.
Ca, None. PZ, Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.
