, Issued at 118 PM PDT Mon Oct 12 2026 (This evening through Tuesday night)
An upper level trough dominates much of the West Coast's weather this afternoon as the closed low sits over the PacNW and broad troughing extends southward through California. To it's west, over the eastern Pacific, high pressure is being observed. Satellite imagery shows these too features quite well, with visible satellite showing the base of the trough over Central and Southern California. Most of our skies this afternoon remain clear; however, if you're in the interior Central Coast region, you may see some small puffs of cumulus clouds building over the ridges. So far there hasn't been any measurable rain reported or observed, likely due to the dry air in place and limited cloud growth.
Tonight, look for skies to clear and for another chilly fall night. Temperatures should generally similar to or a few degrees higher than last night. Tuesday's forecast will be similar to today, though skies across the region should be mostly clear with high temperatures being a few degrees warmer than today.
..issued at 118 PM PDT Mon Oct 12 2026 (Wednesday through next Sunday)
An upper level high pressure system over the eastern Pacific will continue to build and expand eastward towards the West Coast. This will help push the upper level trough out of the region late Tuesday into Wednesday. During this time frame we will see a period of offshore flow during the overnight hours. As the high continues to build and the low moves east, each night will bring a renewed chance of these offshore winds. Especially late in the week, as the upper level trough elongates and then splits. When this occurs, the trough situates over the Desert Southwest and around southern California. Ridging remains over the northern half of the state which should lead to an increase of offshore flow and our warming trend. Ensembles and models then show signals of quasi-zonal flow and weak ridging for the weekend. Temperatures should decrease in response to the pattern change. For fire weather concerns, please see the fire weather discussion below.
(00z TAFS) Issued at 405 PM PDT Mon Oct 12 2026
Generally VFR conditions prevail with the exception of potential stratus, sea spray and haze along the immediate coast and a low confidence for radiational fog at STS tonight. Moderate onshore flow continues through the evening hours, becoming light overnight before gentle to moderate winds resume Tuesday afternoon, with a more northwest to west flow in the coastal areas to a more northerly breeze in the interior.
Vicinity of SFO, VFR at the terminal through the TAF period. Moderate northwest winds through the evening hours, with light offshore flow developing Tuesday morning before the northwest winds resume in the afternoon.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals, Moderate to high confidence of VFR through the TAF period. Moderate northwest winds continue through the evening with light drainage winds overnight before the northwest winds resume Tuesday afternoon.
(tonight through next Saturday) Issued at 405 PM PDT Mon Oct 12 2026
Gentle to fresh northerly breezes will persist over the coastal waters through midweek. The strongest winds remain over the outer waters north of Point Reyes. The overall sea state will improve as well with decrease swell. However, some moderate to longer periods swell will mix in through the week.
Issued at 1031 AM PDT Mon Oct 12 2026
Compare to the last few days conditions along the coast are gradually improving as longer period swell trains are decreasing. However, buoy reports Monday morning continue to advertise moderate to longer period swells (albeit smaller heights) entering the coastal waters. As such, elevated surf zone conditions lingering. Additionally, moderate period west-northwest swell will arrive Monday afternoon lingering into Monday evening. As such, Beach Hazard Statement remains in effect through this evening. The large tidal swings will also result in coastal erosion as water and waves are brought farther up the beach than normal, especially during high tide. Remain off jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure as waves can sweep across the shoreline without warning, pulling people into the sea. Never turn your back on the ocean!
MM
Ca, Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM PDT this evening for CAZ006- 505-509-529-530.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM PDT Tuesday for CAZ006-508-529- 530.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM PDT Wednesday for CAZ506.
PZ, Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
