, Issued at 1256 PM PDT Thu Jul 9 2026 (This evening through Friday night)
High pressure strengthening across southern California will build northeastward over the Desert Southwest over the weekend. As such, a gradual warming and drying trend is forecast through the weekend and into early next week. 850 mb temperatures look to reach between 23- 25 degrees C during this timeframe. However, generally Minor HeatRisk are expected with pockets of Moderate HeatRisk across the far interior areas through the weekend. Thus, afternoon maximum forecast temperatures today will be in the 60s near the coast, 60s/70s around the bays, and 80s to middle 90s inland. Meanwhile, the warmest interior locations of the Monterey County have a greater than 60% probability of reaching 100 degrees F.
Tonight, expecting mist/light drizzle to impact the coast at times with low clouds forecast to push locally inland into the valleys. However, widespread rainfall is highly unlikely. That said, not expecting as widespread coverage as this morning with the marine layer forecast to compress. Temperatures for Friday will be similar to those this afternoon. Friday night looks to be more of the same, low clouds near the coast will return back inland with temperatures generally in the 50s across the lower elevations. However, the building high pressure over the Desert Southwest will result in warmer temperatures in the higher elevations where 60s to lower 70s are expected.
..issued at 1256 PM PDT Thu Jul 9 2026 (Saturday through next Wednesday)
We are still expecting mid/upper level moisture to be advected northward as southerly winds aloft on the periphery of the high pressure over the Desert Southwest. This will be most notable Sunday into Monday and potentially lasting through Tuesday night. However, the limiting factor remains instability at those levels with MUCAPE forecast to remain less than 500 J/kg based off of the latest CAMs. That said, the GFS has little to no CAPE across our region, yet the mid/upper level moisture looks highly likely. So the threat for high based convection still appears to be low at this time. We'll continue to monitor the higher resolution models with each subsequent model run(s) for the potential high based convective.
By Monday and Tuesday we begin to see more Moderate HeatRisk across the interior. This is as overnight lows are forecast to increase as a result of the building high pressure early next week. That said, mid/upper level cloud cover (as a result of the mid-level sub- tropical/tropical moisture) may limit surface heating. However, onshore winds and a shallow marine layer will remain present, keeping conditions cooler near the coast. In the extended, high pressure is forecast to remain parked over the Desert Southwest with troughing off of the Pacific Northwest coast.
(18z TAFS) Issued at 1155 AM PDT Thu Jul 9 2026
W-NW flow brought stratus overnight but the vast majority has since mixed out leaving VFR for all terminals except MRY and HAF. The W-NW flow will likely be stronger today as the pressure gradient tightens over the coastal waters resulting in wind speeds higher than yesterday at most terminals. Stratus will return overnight as the onshore flow persists with IFR to LIFR conditions likely at most terminals into Friday morning.
Vicinity of SFO, Skies have cleared as SFO and VFR should persist through the remainder of the day. W-NW winds gusting over 20 mph can be expected this afternoon. MVFR or IFR ceilings will return once again soon after sunset.
SFO Bridge Approach, Skies will remain clear today with a return of MVFR/IFR ceilings overnight.
Monterey Bay Terminals, LIFR ceilings continue at MRY with an eddy spinning over the bay pushing stratus toward the coast. There is a 50/50 chance of a short window of VFR by mid- afternoon, then IFR/LIFR returns after sunset through the remainder of the forecast period. SNS has cleared and will see several hours of VFR today followed by a return of IFR ceilings in the evening.
(today through Tuesday) Issued at 425 AM PDT Thu Jul 9 2026
Fresh to strong northwest winds continue, increasing to near gale force heading into the weekend. Wind driven rough seas (9-11 ft) will persist into the weekend along with a long period southerly swell.
Issued at 425 AM PDT Thu Jul 9 2026
A Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect for Pacific coast beaches through Friday afternoon. Long period southwesterly swell will create an increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents, as well as breaking waves up to 10 feet. This will be especially true for south and southwest facing beaches with moderate to steep slopes along the North Bay, San Francisco Peninsula, and Santa Cruz coasts. Sneaker waves can sweep across the shoreline without warning, pulling people into the sea from rocks, jetties and beaches. Dangerous swimming and surfing conditions and localized beach erosion can be expected. Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf and NEVER turn your back on the ocean. Monitor local weather, surf and tide forecasts at www.weather.gov/mtr.
A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for minor high tide flooding through Thursday July 16th. The combination of a perigean spring tide (lunar perigee on 7/13 and new moon on 7/14) enhanced by 3-6 inches of additional water from thermal expansion and accumulated sea level rise since the tidal datum was established (1983-2001) will bring high tides up to 1.7 feet above normal. This will lead to minor flooding of parking lots, parks and roads with isolated closures expected. For context, in June we reached 2.0 feet above normal.
Ca, Beach Hazards Statement through Friday afternoon for CAZ006-505- 509-529-530.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM PDT Thursday for CAZ006-506-508.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM Saturday to 4 AM PDT Wednesday for CAZ505-509-529-530.
PZ, Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Friday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
