, Issued at 824 AM PDT Sun Apr 26 2026 (This afternoon through Monday)
Light rain showers continue this morning, with most of the activity over Santa Cruz and Monterey Counties. We've seen a few hundredths since midnight, with another few hundredths expected through noon. All of this rain is falling from low-level clouds that are no more than 6,000 feet above the surface. While weaker than yesterday, there is still a temperature inversion preventing upward vertical motion and cloud formation above this layer. This severely limits the rainfall potential and practically eliminates thunderstorm chances in the short term. But the radar continues to pick up on some light rain showers, and there are no doubt other showers that are hiding underneath the radar beam.
The pattern is currently dominated by a positively tilted trough at 500 mb. As the upper level trough axis and associated surface trough move through around midday today, drier air will begin to filter in. This will diminish the rain chances and start to mix out the clouds. There will much more Sun breaks in the afternoon for most of the cwa. With cold air entrenched, this sunshine won't be enough to warm us out of the low to mid 60s this afternoon.
..issued at 824 AM PDT Sun Apr 26 2026 (Monday night through next Saturday)
The troughing pattern sticks around Monday as a couple short wave troughs move through the long wave pattern. These will eventually become cut-off from the jet stream, leaving behind a Channel Island Low Tuesday through Thursday as the ridge builds to the North. This combination will kick off a warming and drying trend, and the cut-off low will likely support some nocturnal offshore winds through the week. The actual surface gradient doesn't look too impressive, however (SFO-WMC drops to -5 mb) and the offshore wind speeds should be moderate. As the ridge builds, the 850 mb temperature will climb from the 10th to 90th percentile for April (1.6C at 12Z this morning to roughly 15C by Thursday). Surface temperatures will respond by increasing a few degrees each day, until we see upper 70s across the interior from Wed-Fri. A marine layer will also redevelop under the ridge, keeping coastal areas significantly cooler and more humid than the interior this week.
While there was some uncertainty yesterday, it now seems likely that another trough will move in next Sunday or Monday. This will bring another round of disturbed weather with some light rain possible. The calendar says the rainy season is nearly over, but after the wettest April since 2018, the weather models suggest we aren't quite done yet.
(18z TAFS) Issued at 1040 AM PDT Sun Apr 26 2026
VFR conditions will continue to prevail across the region through the next 24 hours, with some areas of MVFR conditions expected in light rain. The light rain threat will decrease through the day, but increase once again during the late overnight hours. Breezy westerly winds will also develop in the afternoon, diminishing overnight.
Vicinity of SFO, VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period. Winds will pick up from the west this afternoon before diminishing overnight. A low confidence and probability for showers will develop late tonight into early Monday morning.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals, VFR conditions will prevail through today, with the shower activity decreasing and then westerly winds increasing this afternoon. A low confidence and probability for showers will develop late tonight into early Monday morning.
(today through Friday) Issued at 824 AM PDT Sun Apr 26 2026
Moderate west to northwest breezes persist through the middle of the week before increasing to a fresh to strong northwest breeze afternoon. These stronger winds will build rough seas of 8-12 feet in exposed waters Wednesday through Friday.
Ca, None. PZ, None.
