, Issued at 1236 PM PDT Mon Jun 15 2026 (This evening through Tuesday)
Visible satellite imagery shows that the majority of the extensive marine stratus and fog deck has mostly retreated back to the coast as of early this afternoon. Any lingering stratus inland should retreat to the coast over the next hour. The stratus and fog will build again this evening with similar coverage from this morning expected tomorrow morning.
SPC RAP analysis shows the eastern part of a ridge encompassing Western CONUS. This ridge will build over the region maximizing tomorrow. With the ridge building over our area it will lead to increasing temperatures. The ridge is only expected to strengthen slightly (H5 heights going from around 590 dm today to around 592 dm tomorrow). This slight increase in H5 heights will only result in a 1-4 degree increase in temperatures tomorrow from today. The raw NBM output continues to overdo the temperature forecast within the marine layer (~1500 feet thick based on observations from the profiler at Bodega Bay). Therefor, I have lowered temperatures slightly over the next couple of days. After the adjustment, high temperatures are forecasted to be in the 80s and 90s across the inland areas and in the 60s and 70s across the coastal areas. HeatRisk will remain largely unchanged with widespread Minor HeatRisk and localized areas of Moderate HeatRisk (including the southern side of San Jose, patches within the far interior portions of the East Bay, and favored high-elevation areas within the Central Coast, including Pinnacles National Park). Remember to practice smart heat safety by limiting your time outdoors, taking frequent breaks in the shade, and staying hydrated.
Tidal flooding will continue across low-lying coastal and Bayshore areas through Thursday morning as high astronomical tides combine with surge effects from wind, swell, and thermal expansion to bring us the highest tides of the summer season. Last night's high tide reached a water level of 1.97 feet above normally dry ground, or 7.81 feet MLLW (observed at 11:18 PM on Sunday), which breaks the record for the highest water level observed during the summer season (outside the winter storm season of November to March) which was previously set the night before, on Saturday evening. The next high tides are expected to be 1.8 ft above normal (7.6 ft MLLW) at 12:02 AM on Tuesday, and 1.7 ft above normal (7.5 ft MLLW) at 12:56 AM on Wednesday, and 1.2 ft above normal (7.1 ft MLLW) at 1:51 AM on Thursday. In addition, the long-period southerly swell is continuing to increase the risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents, with a Beach Hazards Statement out through Thursday morning. See the BEACHES section for more information, but the main takeaway is to never turn your back to the ocean!
..issued at 1236 PM PDT Mon Jun 15 2026 (Wednesday through next Monday)
Ridging will continue to dominate the region on Wednesday, but will begin it's weakening trend. Due to the weakening trend temperatures are forecasted to be a degree or two cooler than on Tuesday. By the end of the workweek the aforementioned ridge will continue to weaken and progress east/southeastward with a trough moving into the Eastern Pacific and influencing our region. The base of the low pressure system is currently expected to move through our region during the upcoming weekend. This low pressure system will result in a cooling trend across the area allowing for temperatures to drop below the seasonal averages. Afternoon high temperatures are currently forecasted to be in the mid 70s to low 80s across the inland valleys and in the mid 60s to low 70s across the Bays. Rain chances with this system remain confined offshore and in the Sierra Nevada range (east of the forecast area). Global ensemble members are in good agreement that ridging will return to the area by the beginning of next week allowing for temperatures to warm back above normal.
(00z TAFS) Issued at 413 PM PDT Mon Jun 15 2026
MVFR-IFR stratus is concentrated at the immediate coast but there are signs that the inland intrusion has begun with some expansion observed around the Petaluma Gap and the southern Monterey Bay region. Generally breezy onshore flow conditions continue into the evening hours with the winds turning light overnight, as stratus expands into the North Bay valleys, the central SF Bay, and the Salinas Valley. There is a low confidence of stratus impacts near LVK for the early hours of Tuesday morning, with some high resolution models bringing stratus into the hills surrounding the terminal. Stratus will pare back to the immediate coast through Tuesday morning with breezy onshore winds resuming in the afternoon. Low to moderate confidence that HAF scatters out briefly on Tuesday afternoon
Vicinity of SFO, VFR with a fresh to strong northwest breeze through the evening hours. IFR stratus will move in through the evening into the overnight hours. There is moderate confidence on stratus timing as models differ on how that stratus will expand over the terminal, with most models expecting stratus to wrap around the East and South Bay and potentially setting up through the Golden Gate just to the north of the terminal before filling in over SFO. May need to monitor observations through the night. Any stratus that forms will dissipate through Tuesday morning as breezy west- northwest winds resume in the afternoon with gusts to 15 kt.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.
Vicinity of OAK and SJC, VFR conditions and breezy northwest winds to around 15 kt continue through the evening hours. IFR stratus will move into OAK around 03Z this evening, then move south towards SJC over the next several hours. Stratus will dissipate through the course of Tuesday morning, with breezy northwest winds resuming in the afternoon.
Monterey Bay Terminals, Monitoring the stratus flow lying just to the north of the terminals for potential early stratus impacts. Otherwise, VFR conditions continue through the next several hours. Gentle onshore winds prevail at MRY through the evening while stronger northwest flow with gusts up to 25 kt persists at SNS. IFR stratus will return early this evening as winds turn light, clearing through Tuesday morning with the gentle to breezy northwest winds resuming in the afternoon hours.
(tonight through next Saturday) Issued at 413 PM PDT Mon Jun 15 2026
Southerly breezes persist today transitioning to northerly this afternoon into the night with a low south-southwesterly swell across most of the coastal waters. Winds will shift back to southerly tomorrow afternoon for the southern outer waters. Fresh to strong north winds will develop in the northern outer waters tomorrow and Wednesday.
Issued at 1201 AM PDT Mon Jun 15 2026
Long period southerly swell at around 15 to 17 seconds will persist through the next few days as energetic storms in the Southern Hemisphere continue to affect the California coast, especially for south and southwest facing beaches. Hazardous beach conditions are advertised, specifically for moderate to steeply sloped beaches along the Pacific Coast of the North Bay, San Mateo, Santa Cruz counties. A Beach Hazards Statement for Pacific Coast beaches has been extended through 5 AM Thursday morning. Be sure check beach conditions before you head out. Sneaker waves will run up the beach much farther than other waves, potentially catching beachgoers by surprise and resulting in people being swept into the water. Rip currents are strong enough to pull the strongest swimmers away from shore. Swim near a lifeguard if possible. Stay back from the beach, and away from jetties, piers, beachside rocks, and other infrastructure near the water. Never turn your back to the ocean!
Ca, Beach Hazards Statement through late Wednesday night for CAZ006- 505-509-529-530.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM PDT Thursday for CAZ006-506- 508.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM PDT Wednesday for CAZ505-509- 529-530.
PZ, Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Tuesday to 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
