Issued at 833 AM PDT Sun Oct 4 2026
Satellite imagery has shown high clouds streaming across the SF Bay Area with reported temperatures in the North Bay currently falling below the current forecast. If this continues through the morning into the afternoon the high temperatures across the North Bay may need to be adjusted downwards. Will continue to monitor the evolution of the cloud cover throughout the day. Otherwise forecast remains on track.
DialH
, Issued at 1216 AM PDT Sun Oct 4 2026 (Today and tonight)
The 00Z sounding observed the second hottest 850 mb temperature for the date and time at 24.35 degrees Celsius; however, no daily maximum temperature records were broken. The Heat Advisory has been extended in area to now include all of the Bay Area and Central Coast through 10 PM Sunday. Locations along the immediate coast may have relatively cooler conditions; however, weaker than normal onshore flow will limit relief even just a couple miles inland. Temperatures 10 to 20 degrees above normal and weaker than normal onshore flow will limit overnight relief, resulting in moderate to major HeatRisk. Across the higher terrain, elevated fire weather conditions continue from hot and dry conditions with even less relief, prominent thermal belting, and prolonged burn periods. Fog is expected to develop around the Monterey Bay tonight with lower confidence for other locations along the Pacific Coast. Subsidence aloft will support a compressed and shallow marine layer that will mix out shortly after sunrise, providing another nudge that even the coast will got hot.
..issued at 1216 AM PDT Sun Oct 4 2026 (Monday through Saturday)
There will be subtle fluctuations Monday through Wednesday; nonetheless, upper-level ridging will prevail. The Heat Advisory will remain in effect through 10 PM Wednesday for most of the interior Bay Area and Central Coast as temperatures 10 to 20 degrees above normal bring moderate to major HeatRisk. The Marin Hills, Northern Monterey Bay, and Northern Salinas Valley (including Carmel Valley and Hollister Valley) may need to be grouped in as well with similar conditions and high probabilities for moderate to major HeatRisk. San Francisco will also remain a contender with 60%+ probability for the eastern half of the city to reach 80 degrees Monday and Tuesday with probabilities dropping below 60% by Wednesday except for the far southeastern part of the city. Moderate HeatRisk will persist into Thursday across the interior with areas of major HeatRisk across the North Bay Interior Mountains, Interior East Bay, Santa Cruz Mountains, and Santa Lucia Mountains. Elevated fire weather conditions will continue through Thursday across the higher terrain from the hot and dry conditions. Global ensemble clusters show signs of the upper-level ridge weakening Thursday with troughing off the West Coast likely (80% chance) by Saturday. As a result, HeatRisk will drop below hazardous levels Friday with temperatures moderating to near to slightly below normal by Saturday. It's at the tail end and beyond the long term forecast, but something to watch will be if the aforementioned trough brings remnant tropical moisture from Hurricane Rachel.
(18z TAFS) Issued at 1029 AM PDT Sun Oct 4 2026
VFR conditions regionwide throughout much of the day with light onshore winds forecast to return by mid-afternoon. Winds begin to diminish after sunset and more so into Monday morning. The greatest potential for low ceilings and/or fog to occur Monday morning will be at coastal sites (MRY, HAF, and to a lesser extent SNS) as high cloud cover is forecast to diminish throughout the day. However, confidence is low-to-moderate for fog development in these locations.
Vicinity of SFO, VFR. Weak offshore winds currently with weak to moderate onshore flow expected by mid-afternoon. Winds ease overnight and into early Monday morning with generally high confidence of VFR conditions persisting through the TAF period.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals, VFR. Light drainage winds currently at SNS will shift onshore by early afternoon and prevail before easing after sunset. The greatest potential for sub-IFR conditions will be at MRY early Monday morning, less confidence for SNS. Any low clouds and/or fog that does develop is likely to dissipate by 16Z Monday.
(today through Friday) Issued at 833 AM PDT Sun Oct 4 2026
Northwesterly breezes will remain gentle to moderate into midweek, allowing for slight to moderate wave heights to persist.
Ca, Heat Advisory until 10 PM PDT this evening for CAZ006-502-505- 509-528>530.
Heat Advisory until 10 PM PDT Wednesday for CAZ503-504-506-508- 510-512>518.
PZ, None.
