, Issued at 1151 PM PDT Sat Sep 5 2026 (Tonight through Monday)
Satellite shows a mix of patchy coastal low clouds and jet stream cirrus clouds otherwise it's clear. Large scale mid to upper level low pressure remains over the West Coast with one more smaller scale 500 mb short wave trough ~ 400 miles west-southwest of Monterey that'll pass by to our east on Sunday. In the wake of this short wave trough, thermal and height ridging will steadily redevelop and with the Sep Sun angle it'll result in a warming trend beginning Monday Labor Day.
Reminder: A Beach Hazards Statement continues from the coastal North Bay to the Big Sur coast through Monday evening.
Also, minor coastal flooding is likely within a small window of time of about 1 hour nearest high tide Sunday (Monday and Tuesday as well) for bayshore locations of Marin County. Impacts will include minor flooding of the lowest lying areas directly along the shoreline. At the San Francisco tidal gauge, high tide is expected to be 0.6 ft to 0.7 ft above normal (6.6 ft MLLW) at 7:53 PM 9/6. At this time we are messaging it here (and will include messaging in social media) vs issuing a coastal flood advisory for Sunday.
..issued at 1151 PM PDT Sat Sep 5 2026 (Monday night through next Saturday)
As mentioned a warming trend will begin Labor Day and this will continue Tuesday and peak Wednesday and Thursday. Minor to a few areas of moderate HeatRisk will return mainly Wednesday and Thursday. Then late in the week temperatures will trend cooler.
Global models continue to show redevelopment of 500 mb troughing over the eastern Pacific during the upcoming week. 00z guidance continues to show retrogression (westward motion) of the upper level trough which will help steer residual tropical moisture to our west. Potential for rain this upcoming week has trended even drier.
(12z TAFS) Issued at 422 AM PDT Sun Sep 6 2026
The marine layer remains mixed out this evening with clear skies across the majority of the region. Patchy stratus has pushed its way into the SF Bay over SFO and is heading towards OAK with clear skies in the North Bay promoting fog development. There is some potential for stratus to reach LVK this morning but confidence is on the lower end. Otherwise, anticipating SJC, MRY, and SNS generally staying clear this morning. Breezy onshore winds return this afternoon and evening with gusts to around 25 knots possible at favored airports. Winds decrease overnight with another night of low confidence in the stratus forecast. The marine layer is attempting to redevelop again tonight but it may hold off until Monday night. As such, have included some potential for stratus around 12Z at OAK/SFO with stratus chances increasing for other coastal airports after the end of this TAF period.
Vicinity of SFO, Stratus has developed over the SF Bay and SFO resulting in MVFR CIGs. Moderate confidence in stratus persisting through 16Z but it may clear slightly earlier depending on how fast the stratus bank over the bay breaks up. Gusty westerly winds redevelop this afternoon and evening with gusts to around 25 knots expected. Low confidence in tonight's stratus forecast with chances increasing between 09 to 12Z tomorrow morning.
SFO Bridge Approach, Patchy MVFR stratus is impacting the SFO Bridge approach and will linger through late this morning. Clearing times should be similar to SFO, approx. 16Z, but there is some potential for CIGs over the bay to clear faster than those over the airport. Gusty westerly to northwesterly winds are expected over the bay with gusts to around 25 knots this afternoon.
Monterey Bay Terminals, Low confidence that stratus or fog will reach MRY and SNS this morning. Models continue to overestimate stratus development in the Monterey Bay region with satellite showing no real fog development in the vicinity. Breezy onshore winds return this afternoon between 10 to 15 knots. Wind decrease again overnight with stratus chances increasing after 09Z.
(today through Friday) Issued at 256 AM PDT Sun Sep 6 2026
Northerly winds gradually strengthen today from moderate to fresh with strong gusts becoming more widespread. Locally stronger gusts are expected within the Monterey Bay, coastal jet regions, and within the Golden Gate channel. Winds decrease everywhere except the far northern outer waters by late Monday with weaker winds to prevail through the rest of the week. Long period southerly swell associated with tropical activity in the Eastern Pacific will continue to impact the coastal waters into next week.
Issued at 538 PM PDT Sat Sep 5 2026
A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect through Labor Day as the swell from tropical cyclones Marie and Karina reach the coast. Waves from these cyclones will travel over 1,000 miles in all directions, gradually flattening out to low amplitude, but long period swell. These waves aren't very intimidating if you're on a boat in the open ocean, but the long period allows them to push much farther up the beach. Long period swell always increases the chance for sneaker waves, but that's particularly true this weekend since there are 2 different sets of southerly swell, and their energy will periodically combine. In addition to sneaker waves, expect strong rip currents and breaking waves up to 10 ft. As this is a holiday weekend and the weather is otherwise pretty nice, the exposure to the risk is high. Avoid the water if you're not an expert swimmer. If caught in a rip current, swim parallel to shore until you stop feeling the pull. Even on the beach, be prepared for sneaker waves this weekend and never turn your back on the ocean.
Ca, Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for CAZ006-505- 509-529-530.
PZ, Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 3 AM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
