, Issued at 117 PM PDT Tue Jun 16 2026 (This evening through Wednesday)
Morning stratus and fog has retreated back to the coastal areas early this afternoon with mostly sunny skies over much of the CWA. The marine layer remains around 100-1500 feet and should reamin in that range tomorrow. With a similar marine layer expected tomorrow an extensive area of stratus and fog, similar to this morning, is expected tomorrow morning. Stratus will start to move back inland around or a few hours prior to sunset tonight.
High pressure remains in place over Western CONUS with H5 heights (590-592 dm) similar to slightly higher than that of yesterday. With similar H5 heights temperatures this afternoon will be around, or a few degrees warmer than yesterday's afternoon high temperatures. Inland areas are forecasted to see afternoon highs in the 80s and 90s with coastal areas seeing highs in the 60s to low 70s. These temperatures will lead to widespread Minor HeatRisk, with localized areas of Moderate HeatRisk. Make sure to continue to practice smart heat safety (especially if you're more sensitive to the heat) by limiting your time outdoors, taking frequent breaks in the shade (if outdoors), and staying hydrated.
Tomorrow the high pressure system will start to break down leading to the beginning of our upcoming cooling trend, especially for inland areas. Afternoon high temperatures are forecasted to be around 2-5 degrees cooler tomorrow across the inland areas. Similar temperatures are expected along the coast due to the influence of the marine layer (which will be similar to today's).
Tidal flooding continues across low-lying coastal and Bayshore areas through Thursday morning as high astronomical tides combine with surge effects from wind, swell, and thermal expansion to bring us the highest tides of the summer season. High tides are expected to be 1.7 ft above normal (7.5 ft MLLW) at 12:56 AM on Wednesday, and 1.2 ft above normal (7.1 ft MLLW) at 1:51 AM on Thursday. In addition, the long-period southerly swell continues, which increases the risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents, with a Beach Hazards Statement out through Thursday morning. See the BEACHES section for more information, but the main takeaway is to never turn your back to the ocean!
..issued at 117 PM PDT Tue Jun 16 2026 (Thursday through next Tuesday)
On Thursday the aforementioned ridge will continue to break down with a weak upper level trough moving into the Eastern Pacific. This trough will then move across the region Friday and Saturday. Shower and thunderstorm chances with this trough will reamin in the higher terrain to the north and east of the CWA. Our area will remain dry with the exception of some areas of drizzle off the coast early Friday. Additionally this trough will cause a cooling trend as the marine layer deepens allowing for the cooler marine air to migrate further inland leading to cooler temperatures. Afternoon high temperatures are forecasted to be in the 70s to low 80s, which is about 5-10 degrees below normal for this time of year. Weak troughing continues over the region on Sunday, with ridging starting to push back into our area early next week leading to a warming trend, especially for the inland areas.
(18z TAFS) Issued at 1225 PM PDT Tue Jun 16 2026
VFR at most terminals (except for KHAF) as the stratus layer has retreated to our coastline. Moderate W to SW winds increase by the afternoon meanwhile the interior valleys maintain a moderate NW to Westerly wind flow through the afternoon. The marine layer will make another push inland this evening with a depth of about 1000-1200 feet, thereby making it difficult to fill into KLVK. Elsewhere, IFR- MVFR ceilings are anticipated as early as 00-01Z Wednesday for coastal sites and 05Z for inland terminals. These low ceilings will persist through the overnight hours and scatter out by late Wednesday morning.
Vicinity of SFO, VFR conditions prevail through the day. Gentle NW winds will become more westerly and increase to a moderate breeze (12-15kt) into the evening. The coastal stratus deck begins to funnel in the surrounding area this evening (04Z Wednesday) and will eventually impact SFO with IFR ceilings overnight (~10Z). Medium confidence on exact timing of stratus impacts and ceilings may initially bounce between IFR-MVFR before becoming fully IFR. Leaned more on the pessimistic side given how compressed the marine layer will be. Clouds are expected to scatter out by 16Z Wednesday as onshore winds increase.
SFO Bridge Approach, Gentle to moderate winds remain more NNW through the afternoon and diminish to a gentle breeze overnight. Begins to develop a ceiling around 06Z Wednesday which will then evolve to an IFR (BKN009) ceiling slightly before SFO. Transitions back to VFR by 16/17Z Wednesday.
Vicinity of OAK and SJC, VFR through the afternoon. Onshore winds increase to 10-14kt by the afternoon and ease overnight. OAK will develop IFR ceilings about an hour before SJC experiences MVFR ceilings this evening (05Z and 06Z Wednesday, respectively). OAK will maintain a westerly flow meanwhile SJC will experience a land breeze through the night into Wednesday morning. Conditions shift back to VFR by 17/18Z Wednesday at both sites as onshore winds increase.
Monterey Bay Terminals, VFR through the afternoon with westerly winds averaging around 10-13kt. MVFR ceilings develop at SNS first with the initial stratus push onshore (01Z Wednesday). Widespread IFR ceilings develop around sunset time for both terminals and persist through the overnight hours as winds become light (4-6kt). The low stratus is expected to scatter out by 16/17Z, similar to the past few days.
(tonight through next Sunday) Issued at 117 PM PDT Tue Jun 16 2026
Northerly winds will become fresh to strong for the northern outer waters resulting in hazardous seas this evening to tomorrow morning. However, a better onshore push will bring moderate to fresh winds for San Pablo and San Francisco Bays during the afternoon and evening hours, as well as near the coast from Point Sur north to Point Pinos. Otherwise, generally light to gentle winds to the weekend. Seas will remain slight to moderate to the weekend with a low south-southwesterly swell across most of the coastal waters.
Issued at 115 AM PDT Tue Jun 16 2026
Long period southerly swell at around 15 to 17 seconds will persist through the next couple days as energetic storms in the Southern Hemisphere continue to affect the California coast, especially for south and southwest facing beaches. Hazardous beach conditions are advertised, specifically for moderate to steeply sloped beaches along the Pacific Coast of the North Bay, San Mateo, Santa Cruz counties. A Beach Hazards Statement for Pacific Coast beaches continues through 5 AM Thursday morning. Be sure to check beach conditions before you head out. Sneaker waves will run up the beach much farther than other waves, potentially catching beachgoers by surprise and resulting in people being swept into the water. Rip currents are strong enough to pull the strongest swimmers away from shore. Swim near a lifeguard if possible. Stay back from the beach, and away from jetties, piers, beachside rocks, and other infrastructure near the water. Never turn your back to the ocean!
Ca, Beach Hazards Statement through late Wednesday night for CAZ006- 505-509-529-530.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM PDT Thursday for CAZ006-506- 508.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM PDT Wednesday for CAZ505-509- 529-530.
PZ, Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
