Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Francisco CA

451 pm PDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Short Term

, Issued at 1238 PM PDT Fri Sep 25 2026 (This evening through Sunday night)

Lingering stratus is dissipating across the East Bay, the San Mateo coast, the southern Monterey Bay and the Big Sur Coast, while high clouds flow over the North Bay. A weak and dry cold front passed through the SF Bay Area this morning and is making its way through the Central Coast, bringing breezy conditions in its wake through the afternoon and evening hours, and starting a cooling and moistening trend across the region. High temperatures today will range from the upper 70s to middle 80s in the inland valleys, the upper 80s to lower 90s in the southern reaches of Monterey County, the upper 60s to the upper 70s near the Bays, and the lower to middle 60s along the Pacific coast. Overnight tonight, some weak offshore flow is possible in the higher elevations of the North and East Bay.

By Saturday, a trough will develop in the eastern Pacific, and through the weekend, strengthen into a cut-off low and March into the state, continuing the cooling trend towards the rest of the weekend. Highs in the inland valleys will range from the 70s into the lower 80s, while the coast and the Bays see highs ranging from the 60s to the lower 70s. The warmest spots in southern Monterey County will rise to the upper 80s to the lower 90s on Saturday. Nocturnal drying is possible Saturday night into Sunday morning within higher elevations above the marine layer.

Long Term

..issued at 1238 PM PDT Fri Sep 25 2026 (Monday through next Thursday)

Ridging, or at the very least more zonal flow, will return to the region on Monday as the cut-off low moves off to the southeast, causing temperatures to rise near to slightly above (up to 10 degrees) the seasonal average for the middle of next week. High temperatures in the middle 80s to lower 90s are expected in the inland valleys, the middle 70s to the middle 80s near the bays, and the middle 60s to lower 70s along the coast. Beyond that, forecast uncertainty rises as ensemble model cluster analysis starts to diverge on the upper level pattern across the western United States.

Aviation

(00z TAFS) Issued at 441 PM PDT Fri Sep 25 2026

VFR at all terminals. KOAK 00z sounding indicated a weak marine layer topping out at approximately 1000ft. Expecting VFR to prevail through the forecast period for a majority of the terminals, with a slight chance of IFR/LIFR ceilings and fog at KSNS and KSTS.

Vicinity of SFO, VFR through the forecast period with gusty onshore flow easing to breezy after sunset and remaining VFR and breezy through the remainder of the forecast period.

SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals, Slight chance of IFR/LIFR ceilings and fog developing overnight, possibly closer to sunrise Saturday morning. Confidence is low on the development and if so, the extent and timing, however expect VFR conditions by mid/late morning Saturday.

Marine

(tonight through next Wednesday) Issued at 441 PM PDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Fresh to strong northerly breezes are forecast into the weekend in wake of an earlier dry frontal passage. Near gale force gusts are possible across Monterey Bay south to Big Sur through Sunday afternoon and evening. Tropical storm activity producing long period southerly swell begins to increase for the beginning of next week.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Ca, None. PZ, Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

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