Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Francisco CA

126 pm PDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Short Term

, Issued at 124 PM PDT Wed Mar 11 2026 (This evening through Thursday)

Sunny sky conditions prevail across the Bay Area and Central Coast this afternoon as high pressure from the west builds into the region. Coastal locations are a bit cooler and may not reach their forecast maximum temperatures this afternoon as a shallow marine layer and onshore flow remains in place at the coast. However, inland areas are likely to reach into the low-to-upper 70s with a few warmer inland spots approaching 80 degrees F. Overnight, mostly clear conditions will prevail as temperatures drop into the mid 40s to low 50s.

For Thursday afternoon, the warming trend continues across the interior with upper 70s to mid 80s as the high pressure aloft continues to build eastward. Again, there is only moderate confidence for coastal areas to reach their forecast maximum temperatures. This is as onshore flow and a shallow marine layer potentially limits the amount of daytime heating. Additionally, high clouds are forecast to stream inland across the region.

Long Term

..issued at 124 PM PDT Wed Mar 11 2026 (Thursday night through next Tuesday)

A subtle upper level shortwave through will temporarily put a pause on the warming trend Friday, yet temperatures will remain 5-15 degrees above seasonal averages. This will result in minor HeatRisk across much of the region through Saturday when more interior areas reach the upper 70s to mid 80s.

The high pressure will continue to build overhead the Bay Area and Central Coast by Sunday, Monday and Tuesday. Monday and Tuesday are likely to be the days in which we would issue Heat Advisories as HeatRisk rise to moderate levels, especially across the interior. However, we will continue to monitor this heat event as it approaches.

From previous forecaster: "Even with the uncertainty, global ensemble clusters illustrate that it is likely that we will be dealing with anomalously high heights through Thursday of next week. To put this into context, we will be in record breaking territory Sunday through Tuesday. This is not just with temperatures (read the CLIMATE section below), but monthly records for 850 mb temperatures and 500 mb heights which are both good indicators for the type of air mass that we are dealing with. Impacts wise, widespread minor HeatRisk on Saturday will give way to areas of moderate HeatRisk Sunday through Tuesday. To mitigate your risk: reduce time in the Sun during the warmest part of the day, stay hydrated with water, stay in a cool place during the heat of the day, move outdoor activities to cooler times of the day, and for those without a/c, use fans to keep air moving and open windows at night."

Aviation

(18z TAFS) Issued at 1051 AM PDT Wed Mar 11 2026

VFR through the TAF period. Mostly moderate winds build in the mid afternoon, staying below 15 kts for most areas. Winds reduce into the evening and night, becoming light across the region. Moderate winds return Thursday afternoon.

Vicinity of SFO, VFR through the TAF period. Moderate west winds build in the mid afternoon, peaking around 13 kts. These winds linger into the night before becoming light. Winds build again into Thursday afternoon.

SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals, VFR through the TAF period. Moderate northwest winds last into the evening and early night before becoming light.

Marine

(today through Monday) Issued at 1051 AM PDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Breezy to gusty north winds continue to affect the outer waters, causing rough seas. Expect these winds to last through the weekend with some of the inner waters being affected over the weekend itself. Winds and seas ease into the next work week.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Ca, None. PZ, Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

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