Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Francisco CA

945 pm PDT Sun jul 5 2026

Short Term

, Issued at 1218 PM PDT Sun Jul 5 2026 (This evening through Monday night)

Coastal stratus continues to retreat to the coast early this afternoon with mid-to-high level clouds also exiting to the east. Temperatures this afternoon are forecast to range from the upper 50s to lower 60s along the immediate coastline, middle 60s to middle 70s near the bays, middle 60s to lower 80s in the inland valleys, and upper 60s to lower 90s in the warmest interior spots. These temperatures are generally up to 10 degrees below seasonal averages as a shortwave through continues to impact the region. Breezy onshore winds are also forecast to develop this afternoon with gusts up to 20 to 25 mph through gaps, passes, and the Salinas Valley.

Once again, stratus will return to the coast late this afternoon/early evening and return into the inland valleys overnight through Monday morning before retreating back to the coast by Monday afternoon. Troughing aloft will maintain cooler conditions once again on Monday with similar afternoon temperatures as today. A few passing high clouds are also likely. Similar stratus pattern is expected once again Monday night into Tuesday morning.

Long Term

..issued at 1218 PM PDT Sun Jul 5 2026 (Tuesday through next Saturday)

A gradual warming trend will persist through the second half of the week as high pressure strengthens over the Desert Southwest. However, persistent onshore flow will maintain a modest marine layer and keep conditions near the coast cooler than inland areas. Overall, HeatRisk look to remain in the Minor category with isolated pockets of Moderate in the warmest interior locations.

Aviation

(06z TAFS) Issued at 931 PM PDT Sun Jul 5 2026

The evening stratus intrusion is coming in a little faster than last night, indicating a deeper marine layer. All terminals are now expected to develop a ceiling at some point tonight.

Vicinity of SFO, Low clouds are closing in from the west, north and east. The terminal is already reporting BKN013, which will fill in and likely lower through the late night and early morning hours. Strong winds will ease over the next few hours.

SFO Bridge Approach, The approach is holding on the clear skies for now, but the walls are closing in and it won't last much longer.

Monterey Bay Terminals, MVFR-IFR conditions through the night. SNS will likely clear in the late morning, but it now looks more likely that MRY will hold on to the ceilings through the TAF period.

Marine

(tonight through next Saturday) Issued at 931 PM PDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Moderate NW winds and seas will prevail Monday. NW winds will strengthen through the day Tuesday with a prolonged strong NW breeze expected from Wednesday through Saturday. These winds will build rough wind waves mixed with a low SW swell.

Beaches

Issued at 931 PM PDT Sun Jul 5 2026

A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect for Pacific coast beaches from Tuesday morning through Friday afternoon. Long period southwesterly swell will create an increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents, as well as breaking waves up to 10 feet. This will be especially true for south and southwest facing beaches with moderate to steep slopes along the North Bay, San Francisco Peninsula, and Santa Cruz coasts. Sneaker waves can sweep across the shoreline without warning, pulling people into the sea from rocks, jetties and beaches. Dangerous swimming and surfing conditions and localized beach erosion can be expected. Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf and NEVER turn your back on the ocean. Monitor local weather, surf and tide forecasts at www.weather.gov/mtr.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Ca, Beach Hazards Statement from late Monday night through Friday afternoon for CAZ006-505-509-529-530.

PZ, Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 3 PM PDT Tuesday for Mry Bay- Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Monday to 3 PM PDT Tuesday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 3 PM PDT Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

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