Issued at 921 PM PST Tue Dec 2 2025
A late day maritime push of stratus was running southeastward along the California coastline. Meanwhile the larger scale offshore pressure pattern development is currently underway with WMC-SFO 4.2 mb and SAC-SFO 1.7 mb. A dry cool front will produce increasing northerly winds through the Sacramento Valley with gusty winds over the North Bay and East Bay hills and mountains later tonight and Wednesday. Dry weather continues for the week and upcoming weekend with high pressure over the forecast area.
, Issued at 1234 PM PST Tue Dec 2 2025 (This evening through Wednesday)
I would like to formally welcome the Sun back to Santa Rosa. What a long, strange Tule it's been.
Anyways, down to brass tacks. Beautiful weather today thanks to weak offshore flow and drier air in place compared to the last several days. This trend continues through midweek, and we're still looking at a stronger push of offshore flow overnight tonight. Timing remains the same with offshore pressure gradient peaking around mid-morning, so our strongest winds are still expected before 10 AM, but breezy conditions will likely last into the afternoon. Only notable change with this forecast update is a slight decrease in the magnitude of winds. Best forecast probability now depicts only a 30% chance of winds greater than 45 mph along the Mayacamas. For other lower elevations of Napa county and the interior East Bay there is a 50-70% chance of winds 30 mph or greater. Wrapping up probabilities, there is about a 60% chance of winds greater than 20 mph nearly across the board for the Bay Area and North Bay. We will see some notable drying with this event as daytime RH dips into the 30-40% range, but given non-critical wind/RH and moist fuels from the rain earlier this month, we do not have any major fire weather concerns.
..issued at 1234 PM PST Tue Dec 2 2025 (Wednesday night through next Monday)
Quiet weather is restored again after the offshore winds on Wednesday. A boring pattern ensues once again into the weekend as a very resilient, some say "ridiculously resilient", ridge builds over the West Coast. There is high confidence in dry weather and above average temperatures through at least the early half of next week. Looking at longer term trends, there is a good chance that the West Coast will enter a more stormy pattern by the middle of the month, but there is high uncertainty in where exactly those storms would impact in latitude.
(06z TAFS) Issued at 959 PM PST Tue Dec 2 2025
Mix of VFR and MVFR across the board tonight. The HREF has a pretty good handle on an initial push of marine stratus along the coastline that other high resolution models didn't quite capture. Based on HREF guidance, this stratus push should be fairly short lived and clear by 10-12Z tomorrow morning as breezy offshore winds develop. Coastal sites may see gusts to around 20-25 knots with winds peaking early tomorrow morning and remaining breezy into the afternoon. By the late afternoon, winds will shift more northerly before easing overnight. Not currently anticipating fog development tomorrow night given the influx of drier air tonight.
Vicinity of SFO, Currently VFR. Low confidence that stratus will reach SFO tonight but the highest likelihood of that occuring would be between 06-12Z. Offshore winds strengthen after 12Z which should bring drier air to the region and clear out any lingering cloud cover around the Bay Shoreline. Winds gust to around 20 knots during the day before easing overnight.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals, MVFR conditions persist through 10-11Z with VFR through the rest of the period. Marine stratus has filtered over both MRY and SNS with HREF guidance suggesting this push will last through 10/11Z. Around that time winds will switch more offshore and strengthen slightly. This should bring in drier air and clear out ceilings over both airports. Winds shift more northerly during the
(tonight through next Sunday) Issued at 356 PM PST Tue Dec 2 2025
Persistent high pressure over the Eastern Pacific will cause the moderate to strong northerly breeze to continue through tonight in the outer coastal zones. Winds will decrease to gentle Wednesday through Thursday before increasing back to a moderate breeze Friday. Rough sea heights will subside by Wednesday night as westerly swell abates.
Issued at 834 PM PST Tuesday Dec 2 2025
A Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect for the coastline from Sonoma County to Monterey County through 10 PM PST Wednesday evening. Breaking waves 10 to 14 feet, with long lulls of 10 to 20 minutes or more between largest sets can be expected. Some of the favored break points may exceed 20 feet at times. Forerunners will be 18+ seconds with heights of 2-5 feet into tonight resulting in the greatest risk for sneaker waves. This combined with high astronomical tides in the morning hours will increase the aforementioned risk. Sneaker waves can unexpectedly run significantly farther up the beach than normal, including over rocks and jetties. Rip currents are typically more frequent and stronger in the vicinity of jetties, inlets, and piers.
RGass
Ca, Beach Hazards Statement through Wednesday evening for CAZ006-505- 509-529-530.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM PST Sunday for CAZ006-506-508- 529-530.
PZ, Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.
