, Issued at 147 PM PDT Sun Oct 11 2026 (This evening through Monday night)
Quiet weather is being observed across the Bay Area and Central Coast, with a few cumulus clouds popping up over some mountains and stratocu over our southern marine forecast areas. Water vapor imagery shows dryer air entrenched over the northern half of the state, thanks to an upper level trough. Models, including the NBM, still hint at light showers for far southern Monterey and San Benito counties late tonight and into Monday morning though the dry air might keep it as virga or mid and high clouds instead. Outside of those precip chances, dry weather prevails for Sunday and Monday and it will be accompanied with cool temperatures.
..issued at 147 PM PDT Sun Oct 11 2026 (Tuesday through next Saturday)
The upper level trough does barrel towards NV and UT late Monday into early Tuesday morning leading to some lighter offshore flow. High pressure over the eastern Pacific will be building and working its way into the region, leading to temperatures slightly warming. The ridge continues to build into the region on Wednesday which will kick off the more notable warming trend for the rest of the week. The aforementioned upper level trough looks to center itself over WY/CO with broad troughing influencing the Desert Southwest. The trough becomes a bit more longwave like for the end of the week, which could lead to a renewed chance for offshore flow with warmer weather. This could lead to a period of elevated fire weather conditions.
(06z TAFS) Issued at 939 PM PDT Sun Oct 11 2026
High confidence in VFR conditions through the TAF period for all terminals with the exception of HAF, where MVFR visibility and ceilings are likely overnight. Winds will be gentle and offshore tonight before a moderate sea breeze becomes established Monday afternoon. Overall Monday will be a good day for VFR pilots to get in the air.
Vicinity of SFO, While there are some clouds developing over the Santa Cruz Mountains crest, boundary layer averaged winds are from the south and the air mass is trending drier. The most likely scenario is for mostly clear skies to dominate the TAF period, and GFSLAMP shows a 90% chance of this outcome. Winds have calmed down quite a bit since this afternoon, and wont be as strong Monday.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals, Some clouds have formed over the terminals, but the bases are above 3,000 feet. These clouds will hang on through about 09Z-12Z before starting to clear out, with VFR conditions expected through the day Monday. Winds will be diurnally driven, and weaker than today.
(tonight through next Saturday) Issued at 939 PM PDT Sun Oct 11 2026
NW winds are decreasing across the coastal waters, but buoys are still reporting rough seas. The sea state will also improve over the next 24 hours as southerly and westerly swell diminish.
Issued at 1042 AM PDT Sun Oct 11 2026
Buoy reports this morning still indicated some solid swell entering the coastal waters. As such, still seeing an energetic the surf zone. Give the observed height and period isolated breaking waves 18-20 ft are possible at favored break points. Long period southerly swell will persist through the weekend, bringing an increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents. The large tidal swings will also result in coastal erosion as water and waves are brought farther up the beach than normal, especially during high tide. Remain off jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure as waves can sweep across the shoreline without warning, pulling people into the sea. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf and strong rip currents and never turn your back on the ocean!
MM
Ca, Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for CAZ006-505- 509-529-530.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM PDT Tuesday for CAZ006-508-529- 530.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM PDT Wednesday for CAZ506.
PZ, Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.
