Issued at 556 PM PST Sat Feb 14 2026
The 00Z surface analysis shows a 1006 mb low pressure system off the coast of Northern California with a long cold front extending to the SW. The system is just now moving +n of the jet stream (to the left of the jet core when looking top down). This means the system is transitioning to a mature cyclone and will slow down, stop deepening, and eventually occlude as the surface cold front catches and undercuts the warm front. While the cyclone itself is now fairly stationary, the associated cold front will progress towards the coast through the night, bringing organized prefrontal rain to the Bay Area as early as dawn Sunday, with a later onset further south. The slow moving nature of this system will prolong the rain well into Monday with FROPA expected sometime during the day Monday. As the front moves through, expect the rain intensity to increase briefly thanks to the increased lift of the wedge of cold air. Behind the front the steady rain will transition to more spotty convective showers that continue into Tuesday. The winds will also shift from southerly to NW allowing the temperatures to drop sharply after the front moves through.
-DJF
, Issued at 149 PM PST Sat Feb 14 2026 (This evening through Sunday)
Mostly clouds this afternoon, but there have been a few glimpses of sunshine. The sunshine is a welcomed sight this afternoon because we may not be seeing much of it over the next five days. As mentioned earlier this morning, the next round of rain will arrive late this evening and early tonight. Afternoon surface analysis shows a weak surface low west of Cape Mendocino. If we zoom out a little bit more and move to the upper atmosphere we'd see a highly amplified jet pushing through the Aleutians and digging off the West Coast behind the surface low. Over the next 12-24 hours this upper level jet will dig further resulting in cyclogenesis of the weak surface low. Additionally, it's not uncommon for these digging jets and deepening lows to slow their W to E progress. This is the case with this low as per the latest guidance. The weak surface low will slowly work its way eastward gradually spreading precip over the North Bay initially( Saturday PM) before moving S and E Sunday. By sunrise Sunday most of the Bay Area and Central Coast will be experiencing some precip. Speaking of precip, expect intensity of precip to increase with coverage during the day Sunday. Highest intensity will occur over orographically favored regions: N Bay Mts, Santa Cruz Mts, Santa Lucia Mts. Unlike our good AR setups, this system will not have a huge tap straight to HI. The highly amplified longwave pattern has limited this feature. In fact, when the tap finally does link up with the low pressure it will be well into SoCal and Baja. That being said, still expecting some period of moderate to locally heavy rain late Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. To account for the periods of higher intensity WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook through Monday morning does have the Bay Area and Central Coast in a Marginal(5%) mention for flash flooding. One final wrinkle precip wise will be the chance for thunderstorms. As the low deepens over the coastal waters and gets a boost from the upper jet a 10-20% chance for thunderstorms exists over the waters and near the coast. SPC Day 2 Outlook has the waters and coastal region in a general mention for thunderstorms.
Another weather impact to finish the weekend will be the winds. As the low deepens and surface pressure gradients tighten southerly winds will ramp up. Southerly flow increase Saturday night and peaks Sunday afternoon thanks to coastal terrain enhanced jets. Gusts of 15-30 mph will be common with locally higher gusts of up to 45 mph near the coastline and coastal peaks.
..issued at 249 PM PST Sat Feb 14 2026 (Sunday night through next Friday)
The weekend storm's influence will linger into the beginning of the next work week as it slides down the coast. The AM commute on Monday will be a mess with lingering moderate to locally heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and even a chance (10-20%) chance for thunderstorms. The dynamic forcing on Monday gets a little more spicy thanks to a solid low level jet interacting with a robust mid and upper level jet leading to enhanced shear. Given the threat for convection any cells that develop cloud be of the rotating variety, especially over the Central Coast coastal waters and Central Coast. ECMWF EFI highlights higher values of CAPE shear over this region as well. CAPE shear is a combo of CAPE and bulk shear, which sometimes can show areas of stronger convection. SPC Outlook put this region in a Marginal risk for severe storms.
Monday afternoon and Monday night will be a transition period as one system exits southward and system quick on its heels moves in from the N. Round two will have some similarities to the weekend low: periods of moderate to heavy rain, chance for thunderstorms, and gusty winds. However, the bigger difference will be the temperatures associated with this system. It'll be much colder and will bring the first notable snow for 2026 around the Bay Area and Central Coast. Rainfall amounts Monday night through Wednesday: 1-1.5" most areas and up to 2-3" Santa Cruz Mountains and Santa Lucia Range. No real change from previous thinking for winds: increasing winds initially over the waters and then land with strongest winds aligned valleys, coast, and higher peaks. This enhanced gradients with cold advection will lead to stronger winds overall. As of now not thinking High Wind Warning, but more in the way of Wind Advisory Monday night through Tuesday. Will fine tune this on future forecasts. Winds will finally ease Wednesday into Thursday.
Let's talk temps and snow. Cold advection really kicks in Monday evening into Monday night from N to S. Snow levels initially in the 4k range then drop 2-3k by Tuesday night/Wednesday. That means precip will eventually see a switch over to snow over the higher peaks. When it comes to snowfall totals: highest amounts will be over the Santa Lucia range and Gabilan range. The potential wildcard will be the potential convective enhancement. This could lead to higher amounts and lower snow levels. Don't have Santa Cruz in the mix at the moment, but wet bulb zero and snow levels could be pushed lower with convection. Regardless, a few inches seems plausible over the high peaks with the highest peaks above Big Sur approaching a foot. If things line up right 10-20" is not out of the question for the Santa Lucias. Will likely need a Winter Wx Advisory for this area Tuesday/Wednesday. As the snow levels drop that will also push overnight lows colder Tuesday night. Given the damp conditions and cold temperatures in the 30s and 40s we may need a mix of Cold Wx Adv and Extreme Cold Warnings.
While precip through midweek looks to be heavy at times the main stem rivers can handle it right now. We've been dry for a while. The more likely scenario will be minor flooding with urban and small stream flooding.
Finally, one more system arrives late in the week and next weekend with more rain and high level snow.
(00z TAFS) Issued at 321 PM PST Sat Feb 14 2026
MVFR to low-end VFR conditions prevail across the region with numerous mid- to high level clouds across the Bay Area and Central Coast associated with an approaching low pressure system. Showers are expected to move into the North Bay in the early overnight hours before spreading across the rest of the region early Sunday morning. Transitory IFR conditions are possible with some of the stronger showers that develop. More consistent rainfall is expected Sunday afternoon and evening, with the main rain band developing across the Santa Rosa Plain including STS and coming into the Bay Area Pacific coast near the end of the 24-hour TAF period. Generally breezy southerly flow will continue into the evening hours with some abatement overnight until breezy and gusty south winds resume on Sunday.
Vicinity of SFO, Generally MVFR-low end VFR conditions at the terminal. Gentle south winds continue through the morning, ramping up to a strong breeze on Sunday with gusts topping out in the 25-30 kt range in the afternoon and evening, before the gusts abate overnight although sustained winds remain breezy. Showers are expected to approach the terminal early Sunday morning followed by light to moderate rain developing through the day into the evening hours.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals, MVFR to low end VFR across the region and through the TAF period. Gentle onshore flow will turn southerly through the night with light to gentle winds expected through Sunday morning, with the gusts increasing to around 25-30 kt in the afternoon. Pre-frontal showers are expected to arrive Sunday morning and afternoon. Latest high-resolution model guidance suggests that more steady rainfall may come at or just after the end of the TAF period on Sunday evening, but timing is still a little uncertain.
(tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 321 PM PST Sat Feb 14 2026
A series of storm systems will move through the region beginning tonight and last through much of the upcoming week. By Sunday expect periods of light to moderate rain while a fresh to strong southerly breeze generates rough seas. Southerly winds strengthen to strong with near gale fore wind gusts on Sunday and are likely through midweek as a high westerly swell arrives. Thunderstorm chances increase behind the initial front and linger through Tuesday.
Issued at 556 PM PST Sat Feb 14 2026
The combination of spring tides and storm surge will bring minor high tide flooding to the San Francisco Bay and Monterey Bay through Tuesday. Up to 1.0 ft of inundation is expected in the San Francisco Bay, with up to 1.5 ft in the Monterey Bay. At the San Francisco tidal gauge, high tide is expected to at 9:34 AM Sunday, 10:16 AM Monday, and 10:58 AM Tuesday. High tide timing varies up to 90 minutes earlier or later along the Pacific Coast and throughout the San Francisco Bay, respectively.
Ca, Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 AM Sunday to 3 PM PST Tuesday for CAZ006-506-508.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 4 AM Sunday to 3 PM PST Tuesday for CAZ529-530.
PZ, Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 3 PM PST Sunday for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 3 PM PST Sunday for Mry Bay.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 3 AM PST Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0- 10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Sunday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Gale Warning from 3 AM to 3 PM PST Sunday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
