, Issued at 135 AM PDT Tue Sep 29 2026 (Today and Wednesday)
The warming and drying trend kicks off today as upper-level ridging noses in from the Eastern Pacific Ocean behind the departing upper- level low. This pattern will tighten and support a northerly/offshore pressure gradient that will bring elevated fire weather conditions to the higher terrain through Wednesday. Northerly/Offshore flow will be strongest overnight and in the higher terrain with speeds of 15-25 mph and gusts up to 35 mph. Sensible weather wise, temperatures will be near to 10 degrees above normal with areas of moderate HeatRisk. If the marine layer is able to survive, expect it to remain confined to the immediate coast and result in reduced visibility. Minor coastal flooding will continue during the highest high tide through Thursday for bayshore locations along the San Francisco Bay, San Pablo Bay, and Monterey Bay.
..issued at 135 AM PDT Tue Sep 29 2026 (Thursday through Monday)
Global ensemble clusters are in relatively good agreement that anomalously high heights will persist through Monday. The heat peaks over the weekend as upper-level longwave ridging moves in from the Eastern Pacific Ocean. Still, temperatures will remain 10 to 15 degrees above normal with moderate HeatRisk away from the compressed marine layer at the coast. No records are in jeopardy.
(12z TAFS) Issued at 501 AM PDT Tue Sep 29 2026
Satellite shows mainly clear skies across the region, with stratus being confined along the Central Coast and in the Salinas Valley. As a result, VFR conditions will prevail over much of the TAF cycle. Some models try to hint at stratus development along the coast towards 12Z Wed. Confidence was to low to hint at it in any of the coastal TAF sites.
Vicinity of SFO, Clear skies and VFR conditions will prevail around SFO today. Onshore winds should pick up this afternoon and into the evening where we could see gusts up to 20-23kt. Winds begin to ease after sunset, falling to less than 10kt shortly around or after sunset.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals, This is one of the few areas the marine layer holds its influence still, as stratus formed and has slinked into the Salinas Valley. IFR cigs have come with it, along with brief reductions in visibility. With the marine layer being compressed to around 500ft, this should erode within a couple of hours of sunrise. VFR conditions will then prevail, with the stratus trying to make a return again tonight. Models show a similar onset time, sometime between 7-10Z.
(today through Sunday) Issued at 253 AM PDT Tue Sep 29 2026
Hazardous conditions over the coastal waters are expected due to strong to very strong northerly breezes. Frequent gale force gusts are expected across the northern waters through Wednesday morning. Conditions will begin to improve Wednesday night as northerly breezes diminish to become gentle to moderate, with locally hazardous conditions across the northern outer waters likely to continue. Rough to very rough seas through Wednesday will subside to become moderate to rough.
Ca, Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM PDT Thursday for CAZ006-506- 508-529-530.
PZ, Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.
Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Gale Warning until 9 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.
