Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Francisco CA

918 pm PST Fri Feb 20 2026

Update

Issued at 913 PM PST Fri Feb 20 2026

Adjusted overnight temperatures slightly lower, especially along the coast where 24hr temperature differences are ranging from 3 to 9 degrees cooler than at this time last night. With little to no cloud cover expected from San Francisco south through Big Sur overnight more efficient radiative cooling is likely. Otherwise the forecast remains on track with more unsettled weather through a majority of the extended forecast.

Short Term

, Issued at 247 PM PST Fri Feb 20 2026 (This evening through Saturday)

An upper level disturbance passes over the region today which brought isolated rain showers this morning and left cloudy skies for the afternoon. Weak upper level high pressure builds over the intermountain west today, while a deep upper level low from the Gulf of Alaska digs into the Eastern Pacific. Flow becomes a bit more zonal on Saturday, which may lead to showers skirting portions of Sonoma County and a mix of Sun and clouds throughout the rest of the area.

Long Term

..issued at 247 PM PST Fri Feb 20 2026 (Saturday night through next Thursday)

Upper level ridging builds over the Desert Southwest, nudging the aforementioned upper level low to the north some. This should keep much of the region dry on Sunday, with rain chances being confined to the North Bay. This patter looks to hold until Monday, before the ridge flattens and the flow becomes more zonal. The upper level will tap into some tropical moisture, fueling our early-mid week rain and wind. Thankfully, the system doesn't look to stall in any regions, which will alleviating a pro-longed flood concern. Given recent rains, shallow landslides are possible as well as minor flooding of low-lying, poor drainage, and urban areas. Ponding of water and slick roadways are a guarantee. Mainstem river flooding is not expected with a low probability (less than 20%) of occurrence. Saturated soils, mean there is also a chance for downed trees with any stronger gusts.

Aviation

(06z TAFS) Issued at 913 PM PST Fri Feb 20 2026

VFR is expected to prevail through the TAF period for all terminals with a colder, drier airmass moving over our area. Surface winds will generally be light most of the overnight then beginning to increase after sunrise Saturday morning. By Saturday afternoon, southerly wind gusts may be 20-25 knots at times.

Vicinity of SFO, VFR with gusty southerly winds up to 20-25 knots by Saturday afternoon through the remainder of the TAF period.

SFO Bridge Approach, Similar SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals, VFR through the TAF period with south/southwest winds gusts of 10-15 knots Saturday after sunrise with the potential for increasing to 20-25 knots at times by late Saturday afternoon and evening.

Marine

(tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 913 PM PST Fri Feb 20 2026

Expect fresh to moderate southerly breezes tonight and Saturday morning with gale force gusts developing by Saturday afternoon, especially across the northern waters. Rough to very rough seas will persist from Saturday night into the beginning of next week. Rain chances increase across northern waters tonight, becoming more widespread across the northern waters by Saturday night, then spread farther south by Sunday and Monday. Winds begin to ease by the middle of next week.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Ca, Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM PST Saturday for CAZ504- 506-510-513-515-528.

Extreme Cold Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM PST Saturday for CAZ514- 516>518.

PZ, Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Saturday to 3 AM PST Sunday for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PST Saturday for Mry Bay.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 3 PM PST Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

Gale Warning from 3 PM Saturday to 3 AM PST Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 3 PM PST Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

Gale Warning from 3 PM to 9 PM PST Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

Gale Warning from 3 AM Saturday to 3 AM PST Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

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