, Issued at 1210 AM PDT Sat Mar 28 2026 (Tonight through Sunday)
The longwave pattern over the region is mostly zonal flow aloft with a few embedded ripples, which are discernible on water vapor imagery. At the surface we're seeing a pattern shift. High pressure over the Great Basin and troughiness at the coast led to notable offshore flow yesterday. That has since faded as the surface high weakened and began to shift eastward toward the Plains. A quick look at the satellite fog product shows the fading offshore flow is being replaced by a slow advancing southerly surge. Low clouds and fog are slowly oozing northward toward along the Big Sur coast. Hi-res WRF/HRRR/HREF guidance bring the surge northward initially to Monterey Bay and then farther northward up the coast by mid to late morning. The surge of clouds are predicted to hug the coast for most of the day today. The cooler marine influence will keep coastal areas in check temp wise, but move a few miles inland and it will be much warmer with highs int he 70s and 80s. Those highs will be 10-15 degrees above normal with a few climate sites make a run at records again.
Tonight through Sunday, Shallow marine layer will hug the coast and nose its way inland Saturday night. Given the compressed nature some patchy fog will be possible along the coast. Expect clouds/fog to linger through Sunday morning. Stronger northerly flow ramps up through the day Sunday with a hint of offshore flow. As such, the marine layer clouds will dissipate and be most prevalent along the Central Coast. No big change in the airmass on Sunday and less marine influence will actually lead to warmer temperatures around the region. Temps will be 70s and 80s with a few interior Central Coast spots making a run for 90. Goes with out saying, a few records may fall.
..issued at 1210 AM PDT Sat Mar 28 2026 (Sunday night through next Friday)
To kick off the work week we'll begin to see a more noticeable change in the overall sensible weather. The persistent ridge of high pressure will get knocked down first by a weak upper level disturbance moving through the PacNW and much more robust upper trough deepening over the region by mid-week. Temperatures will initially drop by 5 to 10 degrees from Sunday to Monday. Despite the drop forecast highs on Monday are still a few above normal. Further cooling is expected through out the week with near normal or seasonably cool temperatures by Wednesday. While the drop in temps will be welcomed sight for some much for was is being put on rain chances. So will it rain midweek? Previous model runs were kinda split in two camps: one a deeper trough with more direction impact over Central CA or less deepening of the trough and more impact northward. If you're looking for precip the trend isn't your and tonight's model trend is drier. The developing upper trough midweek is looking more like an inside slider with less "down the coast" trajectory. We were also monitoring a decent tropical moisture plume/tap as well. Sadly, this plume does take a Central Coast path, but quickly gets shunted southward as the inside slider moves through. While rain falls amounts have lowered we haven't completely removed rain just yet. Current forecast still brings light rain back to the region on Tuesday with more widespread/steadier rain Wednesday into Thursday. Now for the rainfall amounts: Interior Central Coast and far E Bay nothing to a trace/0.01", coast, North Bay, and Bay Area a few hundredths, and coastal mts up to 0.25"
(18z TAFS) Issued at 1023 AM PDT Sat Mar 28 2026
A shallow marine layer around 500 feet in depth resulted in stratus along the coast with KHAF reporting LIFR conditions since about 12Z. This also resulted in brief LIFR/IFR conditions around KSNS and KMRY around the same time. Expecting VFR conditions primarily throughout the day with an increase in onshore winds by this afternoon. Winds ease late this evening and into Sunday morning with a moderate confidence for sub-VFR conditions late this evening and early Sunday morning around the aforementioned TAF sites. Elsewhere, moderate to high confidence for VFR conditions to persist through the TAF period. The one exception is KSTS where there is a low probability for LIFR/IFR to return early Sunday morning.
Vicinity of SFO, VFR. Breezy onshore winds increase this afternoon before easing late this evening/overnight.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals, VFR throughout much of the day with an increase of onshore winds by this afternoon. Moderate confidence for LIFR/IFR ceilings to return late this evening at KMRY and early Sunday morning at KSNS. However, lower confidence in how long they will persist as the marine layer is forecast to compress into Sunday morning.
(today through Thursday) Issued at 439 AM PDT Sat Mar 28 2026
Moderate to fresh northerly winds continue with localized strong gusts and moderate seas across the northern outer water. Light rain is possible early to midweek as upper level troughing returns with winds becoming more westerly to southerly. Strong to near gale force gusts are expected late Thursday into the weekend. Seas build late Thursday into Friday with significant wave heights between 10 to 12 feet expected across the outer waters.
Ca, None. PZ, Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
