, Issued at 239 PM PST Tue Feb 10 2026 (This afternoon through Wednesday)
Initial rain bands moving onshore as of 2 pm with early reports of a tenth or less for most of the coastline and locally up to 0.20 for the hills above Big Sur. These values will continue to increase over time as the low offshore continues to spread rain bands over the region. The surface low is currently around 1002 mb and located 200 miles west of Point Piedras Blancas. The HRRR model is taking the surface low on a northeast trek towards Pt Reyes by around midnight or early tomorrow morning. The southerly winds around the low will be strongest over the southern coastal waters where Gale warnings are in effect. Wind Advisories offically go into effect for Monerey and San Benito counties from 4 pm this afternoon through 4 am Weds. So far weve seen gusts in the 35-40 mph range for coastal Monterey county and the higher terrain of San Benito county with gusts to around 30 mph in Santa Cruz county. For the most part not expecting advisory level winds for the greater Bay Area. The steep lapse rates and unstable air aloft keep the slight chance of thunder in the forecast overnight but havent seen any flashes over the last several hours. It appears as though the intial push of rain has stablized the lower levels with temperatures now falling into the mid 50s where rain is falling.
On Wednesday the main low will wobble just offshore in the vicinity of the Farallone Islands. Winds wont be much of a concern with periods of rain showers and isolated thunderstorms. Daytime highs will continue to be cool with mostly cloudy skies and rain dragging cold air aloft down to the surface. For the most part we expect beneficial rains for this event with storm totals by Thursday morning of 2-3 inches Santa Cruz/Santa Lucia mountains and 0.50-1.00 most of the lower elevations except 0.25 on average for the drier rain shadowed valleys such as Salinas and Livermore.
..issued at 239 PM PST Tue Feb 10 2026 (Wednesday night through next Monday)
Shower activity should more or less end for the North Bay by Weds night as the low slowly drifts southward. There will be lingering showers for the Bay Area Weds night with the final showers ending for the Central Coast by around sunrise Thursday morning. Dry but cool Thursday afternoon with lingering afternoon cumulus given the proximity of the upper low and cool/unstable air still aloft over the region.
High presure noses over Northern California Friday and Saturday with a return to dry weather and seasonable temps for mid February.
Rain chances could return as early as Saturday night but more likely Sunday as a cold trough drops down form the Gulf of Alaska. Periods of rain become likely later Sunday into Monday. The source region suggests no main stem flooding concerns (i.e. its not an atmospheric river) but rather beneficial February rains with some unsusually low snow levels a possibility. A first estimate of 1-3 inches of rainfall later Sunday into Monday with another system possible by Tues/Weds and then again Friday of next week.
(18z TAFS) Issued at 1128 AM PST Tue Feb 10 2026
A low pressure is approaching the coast and has already pushed waves of inconsistent virga and localized rain through the area with mostly high-level clouds. As the low continues to move into the coast, expect strong southerly winds for the Monterey Bay, moderate to breezy south winds for much of the Bay Area, and moderate easterly winds for the North Bay. Rain chances increase into the late afternoon, but rain rates will be low. Rain rates increase into the night causing some reductions in visibilities. Cloud cover will also fall into the night, leading to increased mid-level clouds and a few areas of MVFR CIGs. Behind the initial wave of more moderate rain, chances for thunderstorms increase over the marine environment, but only offer slight chances overland. Rain chances last beyond the TAF period.
Vicinity of SFO, Southeast winds last through the TAF period and increase as the low pressure approaches. Expect moderate winds and high clouds into the afternoon with light showers arriving into the late afternoon. Winds turn slightly more easterly into the evening and become breezier while rain rates become more moderate, affecting visibilities. Showers become spottier into the night, but chances for storms in between showers will be possible. Another round of more moderate rainfall is expected in the late night, but with some short breaks between showers possible. More consistent moderate rains arrive late Wednesday morning with breezy to gusty southerly winds.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals, Southeast winds are increasing across the area with SNS seeing around 40 kt gusts. MRY will become breezy to gusty in the late afternoon as light showers move through the area. Light to moderate rains pass through the area into the evening and early night with moments of MVFR CIGs affecting the terminals. These rains and CIGs exit into the early night, with some lingering shower activity as well as storm chances. While these storm chances will be stronger over the marine environment, chances for storms to come onshore increase through the evening and into the night. More consistent rains arrive in the late night with winds reducing slightly.
(today through Sunday) Issued at 1128 AM PST Tue Feb 10 2026
A low pressure is pushing into the region. Southerly winds will increase ahead of low pressure with gale force gusts possible south of Pigeon Point this afternoon through Wednesday morning, with the highest confidence between Point Sur and Point Piedras Blancas. This system will bring along with periods of rain as well as chances for thunderstorms Tuesday evening through early Thursday. Swells will stay mostly moderate in the mid week, but increase into the weekend.
Ca, Wind Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM PST Wednesday for CAZ516>518-528-530.
PZ, Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST Wednesday for Mry Bay.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM PST Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 PM PST Wednesday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST this afternoon for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM PST Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM PST Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.
