, Issued at 1211 AM PDT Thu May 14 2026 (Today and tonight)
Not much in the way of cloud cover overnight with only two little blips of clouds, but even those are fading. One of the main things at play here driving the clear skies - sfc pressure gradients. SFO- ACV is near -6mb, which is standard rule of thumb to keep stratus outside of SF Bay/SFO. SFO-WMC is near 2mb and is forecast to become negative by sunrise with a stronger offshore component and not just northerly.
For Thursday day, given warming 850mb temps, rising H5, and offshore flow expect a gradual warm up under sunny skies. About a 5 to 10 deg warm up over Wednesday and trending above normal for mid-May. Highs will be 60s/70s bays/coast and 80s to near 90 inland. Will say offshore flow does ease through the day and expect onshore to kick in again with an afternoon onshore gusty push.
Thursday night - onshore flow lingers at the immediate sfc, but higher elevations begin to shift offshore again with drier air working in. Could see some patchy coastal stratus, but a solid marine layer is looking less likely.
..issued at 1211 AM PDT Thu May 14 2026 (Friday through Wednesday)
Friday will feature one additional day of warming as temps tick upwards a few more degrees. Still above normal, but nothing too crazy and HeatRisk remains Minor. The bigger story for Friday will be the winds. SFO-ACV gradient ramps again and this time near -7mb. That will bring some very gusty winds over the coastal waters making for a hazardous marine environment. Additionally, winds increase along the immediate coast and the higher terrain.
Over the weekend winds remain high and get a helping hand from a passing upper level trough through the PacNw/NorCal. This feature also pauses the warming trend for Sat/Sun. The passing trough finally deepens into a low Sun/Mon across the Great Basin. Pattern recognition shows this is decent for offshore push by early Monday. Hi-res guidance ramps up the SFO-WMC gradient to -11mb. That will translate to weakening N-S winds along the coast and coastal waters and increasing winds over the N Bay Mts and E Bay Hills. Borderline for Wind Adv Sun night/Mon AM as winds look to remain over the higher peaks. It goes with out saying that the offshore flow will leading to warming temps early next week. Still not buying the NBM output for max temps, but a return to the 80s near 90 is plausible. Will likely be warmer at the coast too with the offshore flow influence.
Last but not least, interior and higher terrain areas will see a noticeable drop in RH beginning Thursday and lasting into next week. The combo of bursts of wind (N-S and Offshore flow) and low RH will lead to elevated fire weather concerns. Latest Energy Release Component (ERC) charts show an upward trend toward critical levels for mid-May. These charts are taking into account temp/rh, but not wind.
Recapping - roller coaster for temperatures the next few days. Winds increase and remain impactful over the coastal waters and land. RH will decrease both day and night with a marked drying trend.
(12z TAFS) Issued at 530 AM PDT Thu May 14 2026
CIGS are building along the coast. HAF keeps IFR CIGs through the morning, but erode before noon. CIGs around the Monterey Bay will be less consistent as an eddy in the bay oscillates LIFR clouds through the area until the mid morning. Winds stay light through the morning but become moderate to breezy into the afternoon. Stronger winds and gusts look to affect HAF and SFO in the mid afternoon and look to last into the night. Expect winds to reduce into the night with sites in the far interior going light. Winds aloft will stay on the stronger side overnight, just missing LLWS criteria. Additionally, winds over the marine environment will be much stronger through the weekend.
Vicinity of SFO, VFR through the TAF period. winds stay light until the late morning before breezy and gusty west-northwest winds build. These winds increase in the mid afternoon with gusts in excess of 30kts possible. Winds reduce and gust cut off into the early night, and become lighter into Friday morning.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals, Spotty LIFR CIGs are rotating around the bay in an eddy, pushing into MRY, but coverage doesn't look to stay consistent. CIGs look to erode in the mid morning leading to VFR. Winds stay weak through the morning but moderate west and northwest winds are expected into the afternoon. Expect these winds to become light into the early night, with MRY going southwesterly as winds reduce.
(today through Tuesday) Issued at 530 AM PDT Thu May 14 2026
Hazardous marine conditions have become widespread with gale force winds affecting the northern waters into Thursday afternoon. gale- force gusts winds become widespread Friday morning and continue to gain strength over the weekend. Locally stronger gusts will be possible along some of the coastal jets where storm force winds will be possible. The strong winds will drive seas between 12 to 19 feet. Winds peak on Sunday and reduce steadily into the next work week.
Issued at 530 AM PDT Thu May 14 2026
Strong winds build Friday and peak over the weekend over the marine environment leading to hazardously strong wind waves and overall rough seas. Dangerous swimming, boating, and surfing conditions can be expected. Large breaking waves can overpower swimmers resulting in significant physical injury and increase the risk of drowning. Gusts will stay strong along the immediate coast, causing blowing and drifting sand and increased sea spray. Water rescue attempts may be hampered by reduced visibilities from the spray and sand.
Ca, None. PZ, Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Friday to 3 PM PDT Saturday for Mry Bay.
Gale Warning from 3 PM Saturday to 9 PM PDT Sunday for Mry Bay.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
Gale Warning from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Gale Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM PDT Sunday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.
Gale Warning from 3 PM Friday to 9 PM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Friday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Gale Warning from 3 AM Friday to 9 AM PDT Saturday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Storm Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday evening for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.
Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.
