, Issued at 146 PM PST Fri Feb 6 2026 (This evening through Saturday)
It's another Chamber of Commerce weather day across the central Cali coast with sunny skies and widespread temperatures in the 60s. However, the thin layer of stratocu that developed along the Big Sur coast is a sign of potential trouble for tonight. This is this sign of a bit of a marine layer working back on to the mainland. RAP Bufkit soundings highlight around a 1000 foot deep moist layer developing tonight, which means valley stratus and fog will become problematic. HREF/REFS are showing lower visibilities with fog developing for most of the major valleys in the region, with dense fog developing up through Salinas, the southern Bay into San Franciso Bay itself and up in the valleys of Napa and especially Sonoma county. This may lead to some fog/low stratus issues Saturday morning at all Bay area airports.
For the rest of Saturday, we'll spend the morning burning off what fog/stratus we end up with, with another stellar afternoon of weather expected across the Bay area and central coast.
..issued at 146 PM PST Fri Feb 6 2026 (Saturday night through next Thursday)
The big story for the long term is the much anticipated(?) pattern shift at the end of the period, with a western trough developing next weekend. Before that large scale pattern shift settles in, there will be a couple of blips to watch out for, late Sunday through Sunday night and Tuesday into Wednesday morning.
The first trough that we see finally starting to beat down the ridge comes Sunday. This will be heading for Washington and Oregon though, with central California seeing a weakly forced plume of moisture moving south along the coast Sunday through Sunday night. EPS QPF probabilities barely bring precip probabilities into northern Sonoma and Napa counties, so we continued to trim the southern extent of PoPs across the Bay area Sunday night from the NBM. In the end, this looks to be a cloud and sprinkle maker, but not much more than that in the MTR area.
Tuesday, a deeper trough starts working down the west coast. We'll see stronger onshore flow develop with this trough, with deeper moisture moving into California. Precip chances from the NBM Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night remain in the 40-60% range. A look at the individual members of the EPS for SFO, still shows about a 60/40 split between wet/dry members at SFO, so it's still not a lock that we see rainfall at some of the rain shadowed locations midweek. Even if we get rain, amounts still look light with up to 0.5" on the coastal ranges.
Behind this wave, we see another ridge build in across California Thursday/Friday out ahead of the deepening trough over the northeast Pac. This ridge will dry us out and bring some sunny skies again for Thursday and Friday, giving us one more break before the deep troughing arrives. When that deep troughing gets here, we'll see an uptick in rainfall for the second half of next weekend that will continue into the following week. Also happening mid-February with the trough moving (week of 2/16) is freezing levels will be dropping, with snow levels starting to move down as well. At this point, it doesn't look like freezing levels will be low enough to significantly impact higher elevations in the MTR area, but those that are hoping to just see snow in western mountains somewhere, there is hope for you with the current outlooks in mid-February!
(00z TAFS) Issued at 343 PM PST Fri Feb 6 2026
Marine stratus along the North Bay coast and off of SF and Monterey Bay will increase along the coast this evening. Overnight, confidence is high that stratus and localized fog will advance inland under onshore flow. Most terminals tonight will see MVFR/IFR ceilings develop, with ceilings trending more toward IFR by early Saturday morning. Fog is most likely near STS overnight into Saturday morning, with lower potential for fog elsewhere. Conditions should improve by early Saturday afternoon across the area, with stratus eroding back to the coast. The onshore flow regime will open the door for more impacts from low stratus Saturday night as well. Winds through the period will mostly be light, with onshore or diurnally-driven winds tonight and primarily onshore winds on Saturday.
Vicinity of SFO, Marine stratus late this afternoon is extensive off the coast, with development along the coast starting to take place. Confidence is high that conditions will remain VFR through around 06Z, but MVFR ceilings are expected by late evening, likely deteriorating to IFR overnight. Mist may develop into Saturday morning, although fog is unlikely. Gradual improvement late Saturday morning, improving to VFR by 20Z. Winds will be light WNW overnight, becoming briefly variable late Saturday morning.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.
Vicinity of SJC and OAK, High confidence in VFR through mid evening, but stratus will move in by late evening and persist through Saturday morning. Conditions expected to become IFR overnight, with gradual improvement by late Saturday morning before clearing. There is potential for fog late tonight (slightly higher potential at SJC than OAK), but confidence is visibility dropping below 1SM at either terminal is low. Winds mainly light NW to variable.
Monterey Bay Terminals, Currently VFR conditions, which will persist through the evening. IFR stratus should arrive overnight into Saturday morning before improving by early afternoon. Mist is also expected at times. Winds mainly light NW to variable.
(tonight through next Wednesday) Issued at 343 PM PST Fri Feb 6 2026
A light northwest wind will increase and become more northerly this evening into Saturday. Northerly winds will increase in the Northern Monterey Bay on Saturday morning, with seas then diminishing into Saturday evening. A cold front moves southeastward over the coastal waters and bays gradually during the day Sunday and Sunday night, resulting in an increase in north-northwesterly winds Monday and Tuesday.
Issued at 247 AM PST Fri Feb 6 2026
A High Surf Advisory will be in effect beginning 4 AM PST today at all Pacific Coast beaches, the High Surf Advisory continues through 9 PM Saturday. Westerly swell will bring an increased risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents with breaking waves 17 to 22 feet.
Remember to stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure, remain out of the water, and never turn your back on the ocean!
Ca, High Surf Advisory until 9 PM PST Saturday for CAZ006-505-509- 529-530.
PZ, Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Saturday for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
