, Issued at 1147 AM PDT Thu Sep 3 2026 (Thursday through Thursday night)
Cloud cover will increase through the day as a cold front approaches from the northwest. FROPA will occur this afternoon into this evening from northwest to southeast. The standard wind shift from southeasterly to northwesterly will occur pre and post-frontal, respectively, with gusts up to 25 mph to be expected. Gusts of 30-40 mph are expected through terrain favored gaps and passes such as The Delta, Altamont Pass, and Pacheco Pass, as well as down the Salinas Valley. For the North Bay, rainfall totals up to 0.25" with locally higher amounts up to 0.75" in the higher terrain are expected. South of the Golden Gate Bridge, less than 0.10" is expected with accumulation favoring the coast and higher terrain with the help of orographic lift. Overperformance is still a possibility with the struggles of guidance/models in the early season. While rainfall is expected to be beneficial, wet roadways will create slick driving conditions and increase stopping distance. With ample low-level moisture and post-frontal clearing, the marine layer will try to reform tonight. As a result, patchy fog/stratus will be possible for the Friday morning commute.
..issued at 1147 AM PDT Thu Sep 3 2026 (Friday through Wednesday)
The most impactful weather phenomenon Friday through Monday will be hazardous conditions at Pacific Coast beaches. Two sets of long period southerly swell from distant Hurricane Karina and Hurricane Marie will result in an increased risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents with breaking waves up to 10 feet. With pleasant sensible weather expected, these are the type of days that are most deadly; with it being the Labor Day holiday weekend, that will likely only make matters worse. If you want an outdoor activity this weekend, hit the trails instead of the beach. There's good agreement through the weekend that there will be an upper-level low over the Pacific Northwest which will keep our region under the influence of troughing. As such, expect below normal temperatures and onshore flow to continue with the return of the marine layer. The forecast is now dry this weekend with the farther west track of Marie and dry air filtering in from the northwest. Uncertainty arrives Monday in terms of low versus trough, but global ensemble clusters are in agreement that the pattern becomes progressive again as the low begins to fill and move east. This will allow for ridging to build in from the Desert Southwest, kicking off the gradual warming and drying trend. It is now looking likely that at least some of Marie's remnant moisture will eventually be brought into our area as soon as Tuesday. Whether this transpires as clouds or rainfall will be dependent on the reinforcing low/trough and the strength of the flanking ridges. Right now, the official forecast has light rainfall Tuesday through Thursday favoring the Central Coast.
(18z TAFS) Issued at 1101 AM PDT Thu Sep 3 2026
Inland terminals are mostly VFR with sub-MVFR conditions across the North Bay and near the coast as a weak frontal boundary approaches the region. The greatest potential for -RA will be at KSTS this morning and through early afternoon before the boundary sags southward throughout the afternoon and early evening. -RA is also possible at terminals to the south, but little to no mensurable rainfall is expected south of the Golden Gate. Onshore winds will increase a bit this afternoon in wake of the frontal passage with VFR conditions returning. Tonight, the marine layer is forecast to deepen to around 2000 feet and will see MVFR CIGs along the coast with the potential for sub-MVFR CIGs early Friday morning. VFR conditions are anticipated after or around 18Z Friday.
Vicinity of SFO, VFR. Onshore winds are forecast to increase this afternoon and early evening in wake of the frontal passage with gusts up to 20 kt. There is the potential for MVFR conditions as the front passes through between 20Z Thursday-03Z Friday. Winds ease slightly after sunset. There is greater confidence for MVFR CIGs (40- 60% probability) to develop early Friday morning and persist through 16Z Friday before lifting to VFR. Northwesterly winds once again increase Friday afternoon.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals, VFR. Onshore winds are forecast to increase this afternoon and early evening. The frontal boundary is forecast to gradually dissipate as it approaches the region late tonight and into early Friday morning. As such, expecting MVFR conditions to develop by late evening and lower to IFR (40-60% probability) into early Friday morning. There is less than 10-30% chance of reaching LIFR conditions between 08-15Z Friday, however have left out of the current TAF package. VFR conditions are anticipated after or around 18Z Friday.
(today through Tuesday) Issued at 1101 AM PDT Thu Sep 3 2026
Rain chances increase over the northern waters through the day as a weak cold front moves through the region. Southwesterly winds gradually shift northwesterly by this afternoon after cold frontal passage. Winds generally stay gentle to moderate but diurnal fresh to strong gusts return within the Monterey Bay and along the Big Sur Coast Friday into the weekend. More widespread fresh to strong gusts return by early next week across the coastal waters. Long period southerly swell associated with tropical activity well to our south will reach the coastal waters Friday and continue into early next week.
Issued at 1010 PM PDT Wed Sep 2 2026
A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect Friday-Monday as the swell from both Hurricane Marie and Hurricane Karina reaches the coast. As these hurricane whip up the ocean, the waves travel over 1,000 miles in all directions, gradually flattening out to low amplitude, but long period swell. These waves aren't very intimidating if you're on a boat in the open ocean, but the long period allows them to push much farther up the beach. Long period swell always increases the chance for sneaker waves, but that's particularly true this weekend since there are 2 different sets of southerly swell, and their energy will periodically combine. In addition to sneaker waves, expect strong rip currents and breaking waves up to 10 ft. As this is a holiday weekend and the weather is otherwise pretty nice, the exposure to the risk is high. Avoid the water if you're not an expert swimmer. If caught in a rip current, swim parallel to shore until you stop feeling the pull. Even on the beach, be prepared for sneaker waves this weekend and never turn your back on the ocean.
Ca, Beach Hazards Statement from Friday morning through Monday evening for CAZ006-505-509-529-530.
PZ, Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.
