, Issued at 1253 PM PDT Sat Jul 11 2026 (This evening through Sunday night)
Not much change to the forecast over the past 24 hours. Seeing high clouds advect northward across the region early this afternoon, evident of the monsoonal moisture advancing northward. Given the marine layer compressing to around 500 feet, stratus has quickly retreated to the coast and even clearing in spots over the Pacific. This will give way to more sunshine (minus the high clouds) and allow temperatures to warm into the 60s to lower 70s near the coast, lower-to-upper 70s just inland, with 80s to lower 90s across the interior. Some of the warmest interior areas will reach into the mid- to-upper 90s.
For tonight, mid/upper level moisture will continue to increase with Precipitable Water (PW) values reaching between 1.00-1.25" across the Bay Area and Central Coast as the high pressure aloft gradually shifts towards the Intermountain West. Thus, cannot rule out some high-based rain showers, sprinkles, or virga (precipitation not reaching the surface) given the dry layer between the marine layer and about 10,000 feet.
On Sunday, temperatures will be similar to those this afternoon. By Sunday night, PWs will increase further to between 1.10-1.30" with minimal MUCAPE expected by most forecast models. However, still looks like a marginal case for dry lightning (generally less than 5-10%) given the lack of mid/upper level instability.
..issued at 1253 PM PDT Sat Jul 11 2026 (Monday through next Friday)
We continue to see the mid/upper level moisture and marginal instability over the Bay Area and Central Coast. However, the moisture profile aloft will deepen potentially resulting in wetting (>0.10") rainfall. As we move toward the middle part of the week, the moisture aloft is forecast to exit eastward as the ridge aloft shift toward the Midwest.
As far as temperatures go, we are expecting a warming trend in overnight minimum temperatures into early next week as a result of the increased monsoonal moisture surge. This will result in increased mid-to-high level clouds that will reduce the amount of radiational cooling. This brings more widespread Moderate HeatRisk to the region Monday and Tuesday before cooling of overnight temperatures begin Tuesday night into Wednesday. Toward the latter half of the week, troughing off of the Pacific Northwest coast becomes the dominate feature allowing for a gradual cooling trend.
(00z TAFS) Issued at 552 PM PDT Sat Jul 11 2026
Mid to high clouds including wispy cirrus, virga i.e. a few isolated high based showers and a few areas of coastal stratus and fog are seen based on satellite (and radar) and NWS spotter observations. The marine layer depth varies from 500 to 1000 feet late this afternoon. Southerly winds aloft will continue to transport mid to high clouds along with occasional mid level instability during the 00z TAFs. Increasing cloud cover will slow radiative cooling and redevelopment of stratus and fog tonight and generally result in a hazy, partly cloudy sky Sunday. Overall conditions favor VFR with occasional LIFR-IFR possible mainly along the immediate coastline.
Vicinity of SFO, VFR. Northwest to west wind 20 knots diminishing to 10 knots tonight and Sunday morning, then increasing to near 15 knots Sunday afternoon and early evening.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals, VFR. Winds varying from northwest to southwest 5 to 15 knots.
(tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 449 PM PDT Sat Jul 11 2026
Locally hazardous conditions persist over the outer waters north of the Golden Gate thanks to moderate to fresh northerly winds. Elsewhere light to moderate northerly winds prevail. A moderate northwesterly swell will remain as well. Winds and seas build by the middle of next week.
Issued at 453 AM PDT Sat Jul 11 2026
A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for minor high tide flooding through Thursday July 16th. The combination of a perigean spring tide (lunar perigee on 7/13 and new moon on 7/14) enhanced by 3-6 inches of additional water from thermal expansion and accumulated sea level rise since the tidal datum was established (1983-2001) will bring high tides up to 1.7 feet above normal. This will lead to minor flooding of parking lots, parks and roads with isolated closures expected. For context, in June we reached 2.0 feet above normal and in January we reached 2.5 feet above normal.
Ca, Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM PDT Thursday for CAZ006-506- 508.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 4 AM PDT Wednesday for CAZ505-509-529-530.
PZ, Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
