Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Francisco CA

937 pm PDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Short Term

, Issued at 1215 PM PDT Sun Mar 22 2026 (This evening through Monday)

The region is generally clear with a few high clouds. A more zonal (east to west) flow pattern in the upper levels is promoting an onshore wind and a slightly expanded marine layer around 1000 ft thick, with the end result being that the immediate coast sees temperatures close to the seasonal average with highs in the lower to middle 60s while the interior valleys remain rather warm, as highs in the upper 70s to middle 80s keep those regions around 10 to 15 degrees above the seasonal averages. Some low clouds are possible at the immediate coast early Monday morning, with morning lows ranging from the upper 40s to lower 50s in the lower elevations to the middle 50s to the lower 60s in the higher elevations.

On Monday, a low-amplitude ridge will develop over the state, with the overall impacts remaining relatively minor as temperatures remain within a few degrees of today's highs.

Long Term

..issued at 1215 PM PDT Sun Mar 22 2026 (Monday night through next Saturday)

The low-amplitude ridge continues to develop through the early part of next week, before slowly moving off to the east beginning Wednesday into Friday. This will keep the temperatures relatively warm for this time of year, but relatively cool when compared to last week's record-breaking heat. Conditions remain generally stable through the 7-day outlook with onshore flow during the afternoons and evenings, highs in the upper 70s to middle 80s in the inland valleys, and the lower to middle 60s along the Pacific coast. Ensemble model cluster analysis continues to show a second broad, low-amplitude trough developing this weekend, although an embedded short-wave trough will mediate the impacts. The cluster analysis also shows the next chances for rain arriving for the last couple days of March into the first days of April, with increasing probabilities for scattered light rain across the region.

Aviation

(06z TAFS) Issued at 933 PM PDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Currently VFR at all terminals with high clouds streaming in overhead. High confidence on VFR through the TAF period. Low probability for sub-VFR conditions returning to the terminals tonight with the relatively greatest potential at HAF, MRY, and SNS. Onshore winds will prevail. Haze will reduce slant range visibilities.

Vicinity of SFO, Currently VFR with westerly flow. High confidence in VFR through the TAF period. Westerly winds will prevail.

SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals, Currently VFR with southwesterly flow at MRY and VFR with northwesterly flow at SNS. Low confidence on the return of IFR conditions to the terminals tonight; if they do return, it will likely be brief and/or intermittent in the 12Z-16Z time frame. Onshore winds will prevail.

Marine

(tonight through next Saturday) Issued at 933 PM PDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Strong northerly winds will slowly begin to diminish tonight with moderate to fresh northwesterly breezes prevailing Monday and Tuesday. Widespread hazardous marine conditions return Wednesday with strong to near gale northerly breezes and rough to very rough seas.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Ca, None. PZ, Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

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