Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Francisco CA

952 pm PST Mon Mar 2 2026

Update

Issued at 901 PM PST Mon Mar 2 2026

Forecast remains on track tonight with overnight lows expected to be primarily in the 40s except for some higher elevation areas in the East Bay Hills and southern Monterey County and San Benito County where temps will drop into the upper 30s. Patchy fog may also develop in the North Bay valleys and portions of the South Bay. Tomorrow offers a subtle increase of a couple of degrees from todays highs, before dropping slightly through the middle of the week. A steady fetch of offshore flow develops late this week and will provide sunny skies and warm temperatures all weekend long, be excited if you have outdoor plans.

Short Term

, Issued at 121 PM PST Mon Mar 2 2026 (This evening through Tuesday)

Mostly to party cloudy sky conditions are being observed this afternoon in wake of the exiting mid/upper level trough that brought light precipitation to the region. Maximum temperatures are forecast to be in the low-to-mid 60s (isolated spots across the interior Central Coast may reach the lower 70s). Overnight, expecting low clouds to return to much of the region and spread inland into early Tuesday morning.

By Tuesday afternoon, temperatures will warm slightly (by a few degrees or so) as a weak shortwave ridge returns to the region. However, temperatures look to remain around or slightly above seasonal averages.

Long Term

..issued at 121 PM PST Mon Mar 2 2026 (Tuesday night through next Sunday)

Another trough is forecast to move across the region on Wednesday morning, brining a slight chance of light rain to the North Bay. However, the precipitable water values do not appear to be high enough for widespread rainfall with the frontal passage. In wake of the frontal passage, northwesterly winds will increase with gale force gusts likely across the ocean, near the coast, and in the higher terrain through Friday. Additionally, much drier conditions are forecast through late week, driest in the higher elevations.

The mid/upper level pattern then shifts to more of an inside slider type event bringing offshore flow to the region by Friday and Saturday. This would bring offshore flow to the region with temperatures warming into the low to mid 70s across much of the region during this upcoming weekend. Please keep up to date with the latest forecast information throughout the week.

Aviation

(06z TAFS) Issued at 952 PM PST Mon Mar 2 2026

Onshore surface winds, gentle upslope cooling and radiative cooling will form low clouds /IFR-MVFR/ and combine with maritime low clouds /IFR-MVFR/ tonight and Tuesday morning. In the lower levels of the atmosphere north to northeast winds are forecast to develop and at least partially dry the layer just above the low clouds. Low clouds will mix out by late Tuesday morning and early afternoon for a return to VFR.

Vicinity of SFO, VFR through mid to late evening then there's an increasing probability of low clouds /MVFR/ developing tonight and early Tuesday. Tempo MVFR 09z-12z then prevailing MVFR until 19z Tuesday. VFR Tuesday afternoon and evening. West wind 5 to 15 knots, strongest in the afternoon to mid evening hours.

SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals, Low clouds /MVFR/ tonight and Tuesday morning. VFR by late morning Tuesday. Low clouds /MVFR/ return Tuesday evening. Onshore winds 5 to 10 knots diminishing and becoming light southeasterly tonight and Tuesday morning. Onshore winds Tuesday afternoon and early evening.

Marine

(tonight through next Sunday) Issued at 901 PM PST Mon Mar 2 2026

Northwest winds will increase to a moderate to fresh breeze on Tuesday. Conditions will continue to deteriorate Wednesday through Friday with strong to gale force north winds developing across the waters. These winds will build very rough seas of 12 to 15 feet across exposed waters.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Ca, None. PZ, Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Tuesday to 9 PM PST Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

Gale Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday morning for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Tuesday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Tuesday to 3 PM PST Wednesday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

Gale Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

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