, Issued at 359 AM PST Sat Dec 27 2025 (Today and tonight)
Upper level ridging builds to our east, pushing the upper level trough off to our west. THis will usher in drier weather to the region with most lingering showers being cut off by morning. Cooler weather is on tap with high temperatures chilling in the low to mid 50s for many valley and coastal communities, while mountainous regions vary from the low 40s to the mid 50s. Tonight, temperatures are expected to be cold as well. The question will be, do we get some high clouds skirting across the Bay Area counties? Should that happen temperatures might be a few degrees warmer than forecast. Should it not happen, we could be a few degrees colder due to radiational cooling. That would fall more inline with the some of the MOS guidance. Farther to the south, mostly clear skies should prevail with temperatures for the interior Central Coast falling into the 30s, perhaps lower for some of the higher elevation areas. A Cold Weather Advisory has been hoisted these areas.
..issued at 359 AM PST Sat Dec 27 2025 (Sunday through Friday)
Ensemble guidance favors upper level ridging through Tuesday into Wednesday, with some uncertainty setting up for the end of the week. Models show that the upper trough gets elongated, cut off, and then shoved to the southwest over the Pacific. It then meanders there for quite some time while ridging nestles over us. By mid week guidance shows upper level troughing from the Gulf of Alaska trying to dig southwards pushing ridging to the east. It is here, where the models begin to show variance between upper level troughing and quasi zonal flow for the latter half of the work week. The NBM paints POP over us starting as early as early as late Wednesday into Thursday, with rain chances lingering through Friday. Rain at this point looks to be beneficial. It will be worth watching to see if the Gulf trough is able to breakdown the ridge and allow for the wetter weather pattern or if the ridge is a bit more resilient. Stay tuned to the forecast.
(12z TAFS) Issued at 341 AM PST Sat Dec 27 2025
Some very light, brief showers remain over the region this morning, but will be exiting the area by sunrise. Patchy MVFR stratus this morning associated with linger clouds from this week's storm system and localized FG around KSTS will all clear to VFR by around sunrise today, then VFR persists through the rest of the TAF period. High confidence in mostly clear skies going into tonight and Sunday morning.
Vicinity of SFO, Largely unproblematic forecast with skies clearing to VFR this morning and lasting through the TAF period (high confidence). One hitch may be a slight shift in the winds with a weak easterly component overnight tonight in the pre-dawn hours Sunday morning. So slight chance of NE/SE winds during this period, but speeds expected to remain below 6-7 kts.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals, Lingering showers this morning (light and brief), then clearing out to VFR by around sunrise. VFR through the rest of the period with generally light onshore winds during the afternoons (high confidence).
(today through Thursday) Issued at 341 AM PST Sat Dec 27 2025
Very rough seas will begin to diminish this morning due to a combination of westerly swell and leftover southerly wind waves. Hazardous marine conditions will continue through the weekend with conditions improving by Monday. High pressure and dry weather return for the weekend and early next week.
Ca, Cold Weather Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM PST Sunday for CAZ516>518-528.
PZ, Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST this morning for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST this afternoon for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.
