Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Francisco CA

342 pm PST Sat Jan 24 2026

Short Term

, Issued at 121 PM PST Sat Jan 24 2026 (This evening through Sunday)

Generally fair weather across the board today. Temperatures this afternoon are about 10-20 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago thanks to today's lack of Tule fog and stratus. In fact, the only cloud cover visible on satellite is a bit of stratus off the coast of Bodega Bay and some patch terrain-induced CU along the Big Sur coast. Temperatures are expected to be a bit chillier tonight due to the lack of cloud cover. Sunday morning lows will range from the mid-30s (interior) to low 40s (coastal). The only other notable mention in the short term is that we'll have one more night of breezy offshore winds along interior ridgetops before the low pressure system responsible (part the same one wreaking havoc on the central and eastern US currently) moves out and is replaced largely by zonal flow aloft. This will relax surface pressure gradients and cause any offshore winds to diminish and become light, or even light onshore in some locations by Sunday afternoon.

Long Term

..issued at 121 PM PST Sat Jan 24 2026 (Sunday night through next Friday)

With mostly benign conditions through the early week, we'll jump to Sunday when a weak upper level short wave trough is progged to move over the region. This will bring a slight chance of rain to the area. However, based on the most recent forecast updates it seems like this may be limited to coastal ranges as well as the North Bay. Amounts are very slim at a few hundredths of an inch for most and up to a tenth or two from the Golden Gate northward. By next Friday, some model guidance is advertising another chance for rain, but there is considerable uncertainty at this point to talk about anything specific.

Aviation

(00z TAFS) Issued at 341 PM PST Sat Jan 24 2026

Currently VFR at all terminals with some stratus off of Bodega Bay and some high clouds streaming in from the Pacific Ocean. Moderate confidence that offshore flow and the resulting warmer and drier conditions will preclude sub-VFR conditions. The exception is STS where there is a signal for IFR-LIFR visibilities to at least briefly return overnight.

Vicinity of SFO, Currently VFR and calm. Moderate to high confidence in VFR through the TAF period. Winds will back through the TAF period, becoming southeasterly tonight and northeasterly by early tomorrow morning.

SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals, Currently VFR with northwesterly flow at MRY and VFR and calm at SNS. Moderate to high confidence in VFR prevailing through the TAF period. Drainage winds will return this evening.

Marine

(tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 341 PM PST Sat Jan 24 2026

High pressure over the Pacific Northwest and low pressure over southern California will maintain moderate to fresh northerly breezes through tonight. Improving wind and sea conditions will persist through the weekend to mid next week. Late next week a larger northwest swell will impact the coastal waters.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Ca, None. PZ, None.

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