Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Francisco CA

413 am PDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Short Term

, Issued at 1144 PM PDT Sun May 31 2026 (Today and tonight)

Today will be the warmest day of the week with temperatures 5-10 degrees above normal with slight H50 height increase though little change in thickness values. The marine layer remains primarily compressed to coastal areas with stratus lifting by late morning. Expect mostly sunny skies by the afternoon with breezy diurnal onshore flow at times, especially in the East Bay Hills and Salinas Valley. A strengthening marine layer tonight into Tuesday morning will make farther progress inland with overnight lows in the 50s area wide.

Long Term

..issued at 1144 PM PDT Sun May 31 2026 (Tuesday through Sunday)

The upper level ridging begins to shift east and flatten on Tuesday with split flow aloft across our region through the end of the work week, which will keep temperatures at or slightly above normal through the remainder of the work week. There's also a chance of coastal drizzle with the expanding marine layer through the middle of the week. There is still some uncertainty with the exact position and timing of a developing trough moving into the Pacific Northwest by the end of the week into the weekend, but confidence is high that we'll see a slight cool down for next weekend with otherwise no impactful or hazardous weather concerns through the extended forecast.

Aviation

(12z TAFS) Issued at 413 AM PDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Generally clear conditions prevail with the exception of IFR-LIFR stratus around the southern end of Monterey Bay and parts of the Big Sur Coast, expected to persist and perhaps make its way up the Salinas Valley through sunrise. Confidence in stratus development at HAF has diminished, and have converted the prevailing stratus line to a TEMPO. Stratus should dissipate through the post-sunrise hours with breezy onshore winds developing in the afternoon and evening. An expanding marine layer tonight into Tuesday morning should allow stratus development to make it farther inland than the last couple of nights.

Vicinity of SFO, VFR conditions through the day with breezy northwest winds developing in the afternoon and evening hours. As winds diminish overnight, strong indications that stratus will flow through the Golden Gate, but high resolution models are placing the stratus deck just to the north of the terminal, making the presence and timing of stratus impacts uncertain. Higher confidence for stratus impacts at OAK.

SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals, LIFR stratus and fog through the morning, with breezy northwest winds developing in the afternoon and evening. Overnight stratus is likely with some MVFR-IFR ceilings possible as the marine layer expands.

Marine

(today through Saturday) Issued at 413 AM PDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Fresh to strong northerly winds gradually decrease through the morning with moderate to fresh winds expected by Monday afternoon. Seas subside below 10 feet as winds decrease by Monday afternoon. Moderate to fresh northerly winds continue through Tuesday before building seas, strong northerly winds, and gale force gusts return starting mid week.

Beaches

Issued at 1229 AM PDT Mon Jun 1 2026

A Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect today through 5 AM Tuesday morning due to an increased risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents caused by a long period southwest swell. On the buoys, this swell is being masked by stronger northwest swell waves, but careful analysis of the wave spectrum at the Point Reyes and Point Sur buoys reveals a southwest swell around 1 to 2 feet high with a period of 20 seconds. These long period swells result in increased risk of sneaker waves, potentially deadly waves which surge much further up the beach than expected and sweep unaware beachgoers into the ocean, and strong rip currents that can sweep the strongest swimmers away from shore. Never turn your back to the ocean! Inexperienced swimmers should stay away from the water. Observe the waves for 20 minutes before moving closer. Swim near a lifeguard if possible, and if caught in a rip current, swim parallel to the coast away from the current, and then at an angle to shore.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Ca, Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for CAZ006-505-509- 529-530.

PZ, Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Tuesday to 9 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

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