Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Francisco CA

426 am PST Thu Mar 5 2026

Short Term

, Issued at 340 AM PST Thu Mar 5 2026 (Today and tonight)

Winds remain gusty along the peaks of the North and East bay this morning with some breezy conditions along the immediate coast. Winds will build again into the late morning and early afternoon, with widespread breezy winds expected, and continued strong gusts along the higher peaks. The overall flow turns more northerly today, leading to reducing humidities and some localized fire weather concerns. Temperatures look to trend slightly warmer than yesterday, but only by a few degrees in most places.

Winds reduce gain into the night, but winds turn more north to northeast. This will put most of the region in offshore flow and contribute to continued drying in the higher peaks. The onshore flow will help the oncoming warming trend gain momentum.

Long Term

..issued at 340 AM PST Thu Mar 5 2026 (Friday through Wednesday)

Winds build again into Friday afternoon, with the areas most affected being higher peaks and the immediate coast. But the flow will lean more north to north west, causing continued drying. High temperatures climb back into the 60s and 70s for most areas for Friday afternoon, with temperatures slower to cool that evening and staying warmer that night.

Winds get breezy again into Saturday, but will be weaker compared to the days before. The continued offshore flow will keep conditions dry and allow temperatures to continue to rise. The warming and drying trend peaks on Sunday with winds becoming mostly light again, causing a more stagnant heat to affect the area. High temperatures will peak in the 70s for most areas with a few of the more interior locations breaking into the 80s.

The offshore flow breaks into the next work week with more zonal (east to west) flow expected. The change in pattern will call for a drop off in temperatures, by 5 to 10 degrees for Monday's highs. This zonal flow won't be aggressive enough to cause continued cooling for most areas into the next work week, with temperatures looking to plateau for the mid week. It does look to be just enough to keep any rain chances to the north of the Bay Area through the extended forecast.

Longer-term models keep the zonal flow through much of the week with it leaning a bit more to a slight ridging pattern in some ensemble members by the mid month. That will prevent much in the way of marine layer expansion or rain chances, and keep the forecast on the dry side.

Aviation

(12z TAFS) Issued at 340 AM PST Thu Mar 5 2026

VFR through the TAF period. Expect light to moderate winds through much of the morning. Breezy to gusty north to northwest winds build in the late morning and into the afternoon. These winds look to last into the evening and early night before reducing. Moderate to breezy winds build again Friday afternoon.

Vicinity of SFO, VFR through the TAF period. Winds stay moderate into the afternoon before gustier northwest winds build. Gusts cut off and winds reduce into the night, but still stay moderate. These winds turn more northerly into Friday morning.

SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals, VFR through the TAF period. Winds stay light and variable through the morning. Expect breezy to gusty northwest winds to build in the afternoon. Winds reduce into the early night and become light and variable across the area by the late night.

Marine

(today through Tuesday) Issued at 340 AM PST Thu Mar 5 2026

Strong winds with gale force gusts last across much of the waters into Friday. These winds will build very rough seas of 12 to 15 feet. Conditions will gradually improve through the weekend as winds diminish and seas subside. Winds build again into the next work week with seas building shortly after.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Ca, None. PZ, Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST Friday for Mry Bay.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST Friday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

Gale Warning from 3 PM Friday to 3 AM PST Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

Gale Warning until 9 AM PST Friday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

Gale Warning until 3 AM PST Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

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