, Issued at 1205 PM PDT Sat Mar 14 2026 (This evening through Sunday)
The combination of a shallow marine layer and weak, shortwave trough is keeping temperatures slightly cooler today. High temperatures across the interior will be in the 70s with the warmest locations (generally higher terrain) reaching the low 80s. Coastal temperatures are forecast to peak in the low to mid 60s. Low level clouds are currently clearing at a faster rate today than they were at this time yesterday. This is increasing confidence that temperatures for the coast will not need to be adjusted downwards to account for prolonged cloud cover like they were yesterday. A shallow (500 ft) marine layer is likely to redevelop again tonight along the coast before upper level ridging suppresses it next week. This will bring a low potential for fog along the coast tonight into early Sunday morning. High clouds are expected to move in across the region this afternoon and continue into the overnight hours. Fog/low clouds are not expected to be widespread across the Bay Area overnight but there may be some patchy instances of stratus/fog directly along the SF Bay Shoreline. Overnight lows generally stay in the upper 40s to low 50s across.
..issued at 1205 PM PDT Sat Mar 14 2026 (Sunday night through next Friday)
Sunday marks the start of our heatwave with highs rising into the mid to upper 80s across the interior and 60s to low 70s along the coast. High clouds return overnight Saturday into Sunday which will keep afternoon temperatures a few degrees cooler than forecast next week. On the synoptic scale, upper level ridging reaches the West Coast late Saturday/early Sunday and will build throughout the day on Sunday. This initially results in a 591 dam upper level high centered just offshore of California. The center of this high will slowly shift eastward Monday through Wednesday before strengthening to 594 dam (500 mb heights) and remaining almost stationary over the Southern California/Arizona border through late next week.
The overall forecast for the upcoming heatwave with temperatures running 20-30 degrees above normal remains on track but there are a few changes to address. Initially, the warmest days were expected to be Monday through Wednesday but it now appears more likely that the warmest days will be Wednesday to Friday. This is largely a result of the ridge restrengthening mid to late next week and remaining nearly stationary (compared to earlier in the week) over the desert southwest. The temperature difference between each day is relatively small and each day will be within 1-3 degrees of each other. High temperatures will be in the upper 80s to mid 90s across the interior and upper 70s to mid 80s along the coastline. The hottest locations will be across interior Monterey and San Benito Counties, the Santa Cruz Mountains, the North Bay Interior Mountains, East Bay Hills, and potentially the southern Santa Clara Valley. Both daily records and potentially all time March records are still on the table Monday through Friday next week. Long range guidance suggests we could see these warmer temperatures extend into next weekend before we see some relief (still above normal but only by 10-15 degrees) the week after. There is the potential to break some upper air records at OAK this week (namely 850 mb temperatures and potentially 500 mb heights). Probabilistic guidance is showing the potential for portions of the higher elevations to reach the low 100s late next week. The most likely areas to break 100 would be the Gabilan Range but the NBM is showing a low (~10%) chance of portions of the Santa Cruz Mountains, the southern Santa Clara Valley (Gilroy/Hollister), and the East Bay Hills reaching 100 as well.
This is our first major heatwave of the year and it is going to be a marathon. We are primarily expecting Moderate HeatRisk with some relief overnight from overnight lows in the upper 50s to low 60s. There are patches of Major HeatRisk (impacts most people) in the higher elevations of the Santa Cruz Mountains and interior Central Coast next week. Given the long duration of this heat event, susceptibility to heat related illnesses will increase throughout the week. If you are going to be outside for prolonged periods of time make sure you are drinking plenty of water and allowing time to rest in the shade. Never leave people or pets unattended in the car. If possible, avoid going outside during the peak afternoon heat (approx. 10AM - 4/5PM). Heat Advisories will be in effect for much of the Bay Area and Central Coast Monday through Friday with some potential to expand into next weekend.
Expect increased potential for grass fires next week as much above normal temperatures cure small, fine fuels (grass). Offshore winds will remain light to moderate which will help mitigate how much any fires that do develop can grow. If you are participating in any outdoor activities (camping, offroading, hiking, etc) exercise caution when using fire and be aware that the risk of grass fires will be elevated next week.
(18z TAFS) Issued at 1027 AM PDT Sat Mar 14 2026
The last of any lingering stratus this morning is currently in the process of lifting out with VFR expected to prevail through the remainder the day and evening hours. Northwest winds will be gusty at times this afternoon for terminals closer to the Pacific coastline.
Vicinity of SFO, VFR is expected to prevail through the forecast period with a slight chance late in the TAF period Sunday morning for MVFR vis/cigs, confidence is too low for mentioning in the TAF attm.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals, VFR is is expected to prevail for the remainder of the day and evening with MVFR cigs possible later tonight into early Sunday morning. Confidence is high that MVFR cigs will develop between 10pm and midnight PDT.
(today through Thursday) Issued at 909 AM PDT Sat Mar 14 2026
Fresh to moderate north/northwest breezes will persist today and tomorrow, with stronger winds resulting in steep fresh swell. Seas and winds will ease across the inner waters by Sunday afternoon followed by the outer waters on Monday. Expect calm conditions through the remainder of the extended forecast.
Ca, None. PZ, Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.
