, Issued at 1214 PM PDT Mon Sep 7 2026 (This evening through Tuesday night)
Hazardous conditions at Pacific Coast beaches continues today. Long period southerly swell from distant Tropical Storm Marie will result in an increased risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents with breaking waves up to 10 feet. Stay off the beach and remain out of the water to mitigate your risk. Minor coastal flooding will be possible during high tide this evening for bayshore locations along the San Pablo Bay in Marin County. The warming and drying trend has already commenced with conditions notably warmer and drier than they were 24 hours ago. High pressure will build in from the east tomorrow, peaking Wednesday and Thursday. Uncertainty in the forecast stems from Marie's moisture. Fortunately from a fire weather standpoint, the mid-level moisture and associated rain/thunderstorm chances are expected to remain confined to our south and west. However, associated high-level clouds are expected to stream in Tuesday into Wednesday which could make highs lower and lows higher due to decreased solar insolation and radiational cooling, respectively. We aren't even going to have the marine layer to save us this heat event. Reason being, flow aloft has an easterly component as it wraps into Marie. If we miraculously get any sort of marine layer, expect it to be compressed below 500 feet which would bring dense fog to coastal locations. A Heat Advisory has been issued for all areas and will run from 10AM Wednesday through 10PM Thursday. Temperatures will be 10 to 20 degrees above normal with minimal onshore flow. There are high probabilities for moderate and even major HeatRisk during this time; in fact, San Francisco has a high probability (70%+) that the eastern half of the city will reach or exceed a maximum temperature of 80 degrees on Wednesday. Onshore flow is expected to return on Thursday which may be enough to remove coastal locations from the Heat Advisory; however, we will likely wait to see how Wednesday's forecast fares before making any changes. To put this heat event into context, 850 mb temperatures and 500 mb heights are going to be between the 90th percentile and daily record values which indicates that we are dealing with an anomalously warm airmass with higher than normal heights. Two things that are preventing this from being a widespread record breaking event is September is climatologically the warmest month of the year for most of our area and we have benchmark records dating back to 1944.
..issued at 1214 PM PDT Mon Sep 7 2026 (Wednesday through next Sunday)
Global ensemble clusters are in agreement that the ridge will be tamped down by an upper-level low digging into the Pacific Northwest Friday. This will kickoff the cooling trend with temperatures moderating to near normal. The tightening of the pressure gradient will bring an increase in onshore flow and strong northerly breezes across the waters.
(06z TAFS) Issued at 934 PM PDT Mon Sep 7 2026
It's VFR except satellite imagery shows a few patches of stratus and fog over the southern coastal waters. VFR continues during the 06z TAF cycle except for radiative cooling tonight resulting in additional patchy low stratus and fog /IFR-LIFR/ tonight and early Tuesday morning. Winds a mix of light onshore and offshore tonight and Tuesday.
Vicinity of SFO, VFR. West wind 10 to 15 knots becoming light and variable to light northeast tonight and Tuesday morning. Wind shifting to northwest 8 to 12 knots Tuesday afternoon and early evening.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals, VFR except patchy low stratus and fog /IFR-LIFR/ developing nearby tonight and Tuesday morning. VFR Tuesday afternoon and evening. Winds mainly light and variable tonight and Tuesday morning, then west to northwest near 10 knots Tuesday afternoon and early evening.
(tonight through next Sunday) Issued at 924 PM PDT Mon Sep 7 2026
Northwest winds gradually diminish to gentle to moderate tonight which then prevails through the remainder of the week. Northwest winds look to increase late this week into the weekend.
Issued at 1213 AM PDT Mon Sep 7 2026
A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect through 11 PM this evening. Moderate to long period swell will increase the chance for sneaker waves, since there are 2 different sets of southerly swell, and their energy will periodically combine. In addition to sneaker waves, expect strong rip currents and breaking waves up to 10 ft. As this is a holiday weekend and the weather is otherwise pretty nice, the exposure to the risk is high. Avoid the water if you're not an expert swimmer. If caught in a rip current, swim parallel to shore until you stop feeling the pull. Even on the beach, be prepared for sneaker waves this weekend and never turn your back on the ocean.
Ca, Beach Hazards Statement until 11 PM PDT this evening for CAZ006- 505-509-529-530.
Heat Advisory from 10 AM Wednesday to 10 PM PDT Thursday for CAZ006-502>506-508>510-512>518-528>530.
PZ, None.
