Issued at 920 PM PDT Sat May 16 2026
Water vapor imagery shows a broad trough of low pressure over the West this evening, with another disturbance digging into the Great Basin this evening. As a result, pressure gradients strengthened once again this afternoon. The SFO-ACV gradient peaked at -10.8 mbs, while the SFO-LAS gradient peaked at 15.7. Meanwhile, several coastal sites have been gusting between 45 and 55 mph this afternoon and evening, with the strongest gust up to this point at Point Reyes peaking with 61 mph. Therefore, the Wind Advisory looks like it is verifying well, especially for coastal Marin and San Mateo Counties. The Big Sur Coast has also been gusting in the 40s mph range, with Coast Road peaking at 48 mph. For now, plan to let the Wind Advisory ride, even though it seems like the higher gusts are becoming less frequent than earlier. Not to leave out the coastal waters, the Bodega Bay Buoy has been steadily gusting around 50 mph and the San Francisco Buoy has been gusting around 45 mph. The Monterey Buoy has also be gusting around 40 mph. Needless to say, it hasn't been a pleasant day to be out on our waters.
The winds will remain the primary concern of the short term though, as the gradient goes from onshore tonight to more offshore Sunday into Monday, as another disturbance digs into the Great Basin. Will need to look closely to see if we need another Wind Advisory for the North and East Bay Mountains. Otherwise, expect one more relatively cool day across the region tomorrow, with a warming trend expected for the first part of the work week. Palmer
, Issued at 115 PM PDT Sat May 16 2026 (This evening through Sunday)
Low pressure along the British Columbia coastline early this afternoon will push into the Intermountain West throughout the evening and into the overnight. This will tighten the pressure gradient across the San Francisco Bay Area and Central Coast. Thus, expecting the strongest winds to be along the coast and in the higher terrain across the region. Therefore, a Wind Advisory remains in effect through 5 AM Sunday morning along the coast excluding the Santa Cruz region for northwesterly winds of 20-30 mph with gusts as strong as 55 mph (especially along the immediate coast and in the higher terrain).
For Sunday, expecting another disturbance rotate through the large scale trough and dig into the Great Basin once again. This will maintain a moderate to strong pressure gradient across the region with winds becoming offshore (northerly or northeasterly) in the higher terrain. Forecast temperatures for Sunday will be similar to or slightly warmer than today.
..issued at 115 PM PDT Sat May 16 2026 (Sunday night through next Friday)
A broad trough will remain over the Intermountain West through the early part of the workweek, yet is forecast to shift farther to the east. This will weaken the pressure gradient from much of the Bay Area and Central Coast by Monday night and into Tuesday. The one caveat, how deep will the marine layer be heading into early week. Temperatures have the potential to be 10 degrees F cooler along the coast and into the adjacent coastal valleys where low clouds (if they develop) will be slow to dissipate.
By midweek, high pressure will begin to build in from the eastern Pacific leading to an inland warming trend. Meanwhile, as the marine layer is likely to deepen during this timeframe, cooler conditions will prevail near the coast and their adjacent valley locations. By the end of the week, ensembles are hinting at another trough approaching the West Coast and cooling temperatures regionwide. However, less confidence in the extended.
(06z TAFS) Issued at 924 PM PDT Sat May 16 2026
Currently VFR at all terminals with the exception of some haze being observed at HAF and SNS. High confidence in VFR through the TAF period; however, haze will reduce slant range visibilities. Strong and gusty onshore winds will relatively diminish overnight before veering and strengthening towards the end of the TAF period.
Vicinity of SFO, Currently VFR with gusty westerly flow. High confidence in VFR through the TAF period. Strong and gusty westerly winds with gusts up to 35 knots are expected through 07Z. Winds will veer tomorrow to become northwesterly by the afternoon and northerly by late tomorrow night with gusts up to 30 knots expected.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals, Currently MVFR with southerly flow at MRY and MVFR with gusty southwesterly flow at SNS. Both terminals are observing OVC020; however, a look outside the office which is located adjacent to MRY shows VFR. The ceilometer is likely observing the inversion with lofted sea spray trapped beneath it. Aside from that, high confidence in VFR through the TAF period. Gusty onshore winds are expected through the TAF period.
(tonight through next Friday) Issued at 924 PM PDT Sat May 16 2026
Widespread hazardous conditions are expected to continue through the weekend. Near gale force to gale force northerly breezes with widespread severe gale force gusts are expected through the weekend. Storm force gusts are expected across the northern outer waters and along the coastal jet region of Big Sur through tonight. Rough to very rough seas have built as a result. Conditions will slowly begin to improve Monday.
Issued at 140 AM PDT Sat May 16 2026
A Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect for west facing beaches along the Pacific Coast through 9 AM Monday due to strong winds over the marine environment leading to hazardously strong wind waves and overall rough seas. Dangerous swimming, boating, and surfing conditions can be expected. Large breaking waves can overpower swimmers resulting in significant physical injury and increase the risk of drowning. Gusts will stay strong along the immediate coast, causing blowing and drifting sand and increased sea spray. Water rescue attempts may be hampered by reduced visibilities from the sea spray. Remember, NEVER turn your back on the ocean.
Ca, Beach Hazards Statement through Monday morning for CAZ006-505- 509-530.
Wind Advisory until 5 AM PDT Sunday for CAZ006-505-509-530.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for CAZ506.
PZ, Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.
Gale Warning from 3 AM to 9 PM PDT Sunday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.
Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT Sunday for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Storm Warning until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10- 60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Gale Warning from 3 AM Sunday to 3 AM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10- 60 NM.
