, Issued at 147 PM PST Tue Nov 3 2026 (This evening through tonight)
Satellite imagery this afternoon shows an area of low pressure moving into our northern outer waters, just outside of 60nm and west of Sonoma COunty. THe main band of rain has pushed inland with showers lingering behind it. More to the west, where the low is, cumulus clouds are forming along the cold front. Looking at the SPC mesoanalysis page, just next to that region it shows around 100-150 J/kg of CAPE and some shear. The other convective parameters are not as favorable such as positive LI and the lapse rates becoming more stable. Think that these conditions will generally hold for the afternoon as cloud cover filled ahead of the front. An isolated rumble of thunder or two is possible over the waters, but generally the thunder chance is less than 10%. Instead, we'll likely see additional rainshowers activity as the front approaches. Precip chances taper off this evening, with dry weather expected for most areas by the late evening or early hours of Wednesday morning. Behind the front, look for clear skies tonight and near seasonal low temperatures.
..issued at 147 PM PST Tue Nov 3 2026 (Wednesday through next Monday)
Wednesday, high pressure builds into the region leading to a stretch of warmer and drier weather. Wednesday will be the start of the warming trend; however, we'll still be leaning seasonable to seasonably cool. Thursday into the weekend, high temperatures slowly climb leading to temperatures becoming unseasonably warm by the weekend where temperatures could be 10 to 15 degrees above their normals.
In addition to that, tides continue to trend on the higher end. Opted to issue a Coastal Flood Advisory for the San Francisco Bayshorelines from 6AM Wednesday through 1PM MOnday. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is expected during this time frame.
(18z TAFS) Issued at 1000 AM PST Tue Nov 3 2026
Rain showers will continue across the Bay Area and portions of the Central Coast through late tonight. Temporary reductions in ceiling height and visibilities are likely as stronger showers roll through. For now shower chances are likely through 00-06Z before gradually tapering off overnight. Expect winds to be more southerly during the day today and gradually becoming more N to NW again by tomorrow morning.
Vicinity of SFO, Expect showers and temporary reductions in visibility and ceiling heights through late this evening. Kept CIGs on the VFR-MVFR border but may see temporary dips lower than in the TAF. Generally expecting CIGs to rise/fully become VFR by late this evening as shower chances decrease at SFO. Moderate S to SW winds continue this morning and will gradually shift more E to NE overnight before returning to our typical NW flow tomorrow.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals, Scattered rain showers are expected to move into Monterey Bay this afternoon, leaving behind lower cloud heights to linger into the early morning hours. Temporary reductions in visibility and ceiling heights are likely at MRY and SNS if a stronger system is able to develop and move onshore. Conditions are likely to remain MVFR overnight at MRY and SNS.
(today through Sunday) Issued at 1000 AM PST Tue Nov 3 2026
Moderate to fresh southwesterly breezes will prevail today ahead of an approaching cold front. Rain with a low chance for thunderstorms are possible this morning and this afternoon, especially north of Pigeon Point. Winds will veer to become northerly Wednesday. Moderate to rough seas prevail through the weekend. Drier conditions expected Wednesday into early next week.
Issued at 327 AM PST Tue Nov 3 2026
Hazardous beach conditions will be present at Pacific Coast beaches Tuesday as long period (15-19 second) northwesterly swell will bring an increased risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents. Waves can sweep across the shoreline without warning, pulling people into the sea from beaches, jetties, and rocks. Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf and never turn your back on the ocean! Hazardous beach conditions may linger into Wednesday and thus may warrant an extension of the Beach Hazards Statement.
Sarment
Ca, Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM PST this evening for CAZ006- 505-509-529-530.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 AM Wednesday to 1 PM PST Monday for CAZ006-506-508.
PZ, Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST this afternoon for Mry Bay- SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.
