Issued at 924 AM PDT Wed Jun 17 2026
Forecast remains generally on track. However, marine stratus looks to linger a bit longer into the late morning and afternoon hours for the San Francisco Bay area on north as onshore marine push is a bit more robust. Dropped high temperatures couple of degrees for areas north of the San Francisco Bay as a result. Areas south of the bay are seeing stratus retreat back towards the coastline this morning.
, Issued at 1245 AM PDT Wed Jun 17 2026 (Today and tonight)
A marine layer 1000-1500 feet deep will bring extensive cloud cover to the coast and adjacent valleys this morning. Patchy drizzle has been observed along the coast and will continue through the morning, especially over the higher terrain. By the afternoon, clouds should retreat back to the coastline with mostly sunny skies. The marine influence combined with breezy onshore winds this afternoon will keep areas near the coast relatively cool, with highs mainly in the 60s to lower 70s. Overall, conditions will be very similar to Tuesday. Marine stratus will return tonight, along with patchy drizzle redeveloping along the coast.
High pressure over the area will start to weaken today, which will bring about 2-5 degrees of cooling inland. This will place temperatures near normal for mid June with highs in the upper 70s to lower 90s. Most areas will see Minor HeatRisk today with only isolated pockets in the interior of Moderate HeatRisk. Despite the slight cooling, continue to practice smart heat safety (especially for those more sensitive to the heat) by limiting time outdoors, taking frequent breaks in the shade (if outdoors), and staying hydrated.
Tidal flooding continues across low-lying coastal and Bayshore areas through Thursday morning as high astronomical tides combine with surge effects from wind, swell, and thermal expansion to bring us the highest tides of the summer season. High tides are expected to be 1.7 ft above normal (7.5 ft MLLW) at 12:56 AM early this morning, and 1.2 ft above normal (7.1 ft MLLW) at 1:51 AM on Thursday. In addition, the long-period southerly swell continues, which increases the risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents, with a Beach Hazards Statement out through Thursday morning. See the BEACHES section for more information, but the main takeaway is to never turn your back to the ocean!
..issued at 1245 AM PDT Wed Jun 17 2026 (Thursday through Tuesday)
A trough off the coast will approach the area on Thursday and further weaken the ridge. This will continue the cooling trend across inland areas, with highs dropping by around 5 degrees. The trough will begin to move onshore on Friday. Shower and thunderstorm potential associated with the trough will stay primarily over the higher terrain to the north and east of the area as a deep marine layer greatly inhibits any thunderstorm potential. However, there will be enough elevated instability for a 5% chance of thunderstorms across far northern Napa and Sonoma counties Thursday night and Friday with lower chances to the south.
The trough will help to deepen the marine layer Friday into the weekend with breezy onshore afternoon/evening winds. The inland cooling trend will continue with highs Friday and Saturday only reaching the 70s to low 80s at the warmest locations, or about 5 to 15 degrees below normal. Coastal areas will remain relatively cool due to the marine influence. Drizzle may also develop over the coastal waters and along the coast. Troughing will weaken by Sunday with ensembles in agreement that a ridge will rebuild across the West early next week. This will bring a warming trend, especially inland.
(18z TAFS) Issued at 1233 PM PDT Wed Jun 17 2026
The low stratus layer is currently eroding and widespread VFR conditions prevail through the afternoon at most TAF sites. HAF is the only exception as it will maintain MVFR ceilings until this evening (01Z Thursday) when IFR ceilings develop. Onshore breezes will remain gentle to moderate through the afternoon with wind speeds reaching 10-15kts. High confidence for APC, OAK, and SFO to reach the higher end of wind speeds. The marine layer is set to return this evening as early as 01-02Z Thursday and deepens to around 2000 feet overnight. Low to medium confidence on whether LVK and SJC will develop an MVFR ceiling. It depends on whether the marine layer deepens more than 2000 feet as it did this morning.
Vicinity of SFO, VFR conditions prevail through the afternoon into the evening. Westerly winds around 15 kt increase by the afternoon with some embedded gusts up to 20 kt. Winds ease by 04Z Thursday and coincides with when the marine layer begins to trickle into the surrounding area. MVFR ceilings develop around 07Z and persist through Thursday morning. Medium confidence on timing of stratus as they may roll in an hour or two later. SW winds and gusts increase tomorrow afternoon with an 80% chance for gusts to exceed 18-20 kts.
SFO Bridge Approach, Wind pattern will remain similar to SFO. Medium confidence (40-50%) on whether MVFR ceilings develop overnight. If a ceiling does form, it may develop a few hours later than SFO (10-11Z Thursday) and will dissipate by 16-17Z Thursday.
Vicinity of OAK and SJC, VFR at both terminals through the afternoon. High confidence MVFR ceilings will impact OAK and become borderline MVFR-IFR overnight before eventually scattering out late Thursday morning. Low confidence on whether SJC will be impacted by the marine layer as it depends on if it deepens past 2000 feet. West to northwest winds increase by the afternoon and ease overnight, with SJC experiencing a land breeze around 09Z Thursday through the end of the TAF period.
Monterey Bay Terminals, VFR with onshore winds expected to increase by the afternoon. MVFR ceilings develop as early as 01Z at SNS followed by a borderline MVFR-IFR deck at MRY around 02Z. Westerly winds ease overnight as these low cloud decks prevail through late Thursday morning.
(today through Monday) Issued at 924 AM PDT Wed Jun 17 2026
Winds have mostly subsided this morning, with onshore pushes maintaining moderate to fresh southwest winds for San Francisco and San Pablo Bays through the afternoon and evening hours. Onshore winds will impact the near coastal areas of Point Sur north to Point Pinos, and Pigeon Point to the Golden Gate. Fresh to locally strong onshore winds in the afternoons and evening will continue for the San Francisco Bay, San Pablo Bay, Monterey Bay, along with the near coastal area near Point Sur daily through at least the end of the workweek. Elsewhere, expect light to gentle winds for the reminder of the week into the weekend with light to moderate seas and weak southwesterly swell across the coastal waters.
Issued at 1245 AM PDT Wed Jun 17 2026
Long period southerly swell at around 15 to 17 seconds will persist through early Thursday as energetic storms in the Southern Hemisphere continue to affect the California coast, especially for south and southwest facing beaches. Hazardous beach conditions are advertised, specifically for moderate to steeply sloped beaches along the Pacific Coast of the North Bay, San Mateo, Santa Cruz counties. A Beach Hazards Statement for Pacific Coast beaches continues through 5 AM Thursday morning. Be sure to check beach conditions before you head out. Sneaker waves will run up the beach much farther than other waves, potentially catching beachgoers by surprise and resulting in people being swept into the water. Rip currents are strong enough to pull the strongest swimmers away from shore. Swim near a lifeguard if possible. Stay back from the beach, and away from jetties, piers, beachside rocks, and other infrastructure near the water. Never turn your back to the ocean!
Ca, Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for CAZ006-505-509- 529-530.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM PDT Thursday for CAZ006-506- 508.
PZ, None.
