Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Francisco CA

1236 pm PDT Wed jul 22 2026

Short Term

, Issued at 1234 PM PDT Wed Jul 22 2026 (This evening through Thursday night)

The marine layer redeveloped overnight to around 1,800 feet in depth and resulted in inland expansion of coastal stratus. Southwest winds also resulted in favored locations in the Santa Cruz Mountains and Marin Coastal Range (Mount Tamalpais) to see drizzle and light rain at times with up to 0.16" of precipitation. With southwesterly winds forecast to persist through early this afternoon, places such as the North Bay and Monterey Bay region may only see stratus scatter out for a few hours this afternoon. As dewpoint temperatures remain in the upper 50s to lower 60s, it will remain muggy feeling throughout much of the day with higher humidity regionwide. Temperatures regionwide have fallen to slightly below average while the North Bay region is expected to be as much as 15 degrees below average.

As winds shift more out of the northwest late this evening and into the overnight across the coastal waters, expecting inland expansion of the stratus once again with a return to a more typical summertime pattern. There is again the potential for mist/drizzle again tonight, yet will be less widespread. Low clouds that do develop inland are forecast to retreat to the coast by mid-to-late morning and especially so by Thursday afternoon.

Maximum afternoon temperatures on Thursday are forecast to range in the upper 50s to lower 70s near the coast, in the 70s bayside, and 80s to lower 90s in the interior. The southern portion of the Central Coast has the greatest potential to exceed 100 deg F in places such as Lockwood, Bradley and Parkfield.

Long Term

..issued at 1234 PM PDT Wed Jul 22 2026 (Friday through next Tuesday)

The ridge currently over the Southern Plains is forecast to shift westward towards the Four Corners region over the weekend. This will work to compress our marine layer and allow for a slight warming trend across the interior. However, temperatures will remain within a few degrees of seasonal averages into early next week. As such, expecting typical ebb and flow of stratus returning into the valleys overnight and retreating to the coast by mid-to-late morning.

Aviation

(18z TAFS) Issued at 1039 AM PDT Wed Jul 22 2026

An onshore gradient and 1800 ft deep marine layer have kept cigs in place over coastal terminals. Latest satellite imagery depicts a rapidly eroding cloud deck over inland area while coastal stratus persists. Winds remain out of the south to southwest and will gradually veer back to west and NW through the day as the clouds retreat back to the coast. Anticipate an early return to of the marine layer this evening.

Vicinity of SFO, Moderate and occasionally gusty southerly winds will prevail through the morning hours as marine layer hovers near the terminal. Southerly wind have help keep the skies mostly MVFR to IFR. Cigs are expected to make an early return as winds veer to the northwest this afternoon.

SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals, MVFR Cigs are expected to persist through the remainder of the morning then temporarily scatter out in the early afternoon before returning around sunset this evening.

Marine

(today through Monday) Issued at 1039 AM PDT Wed Jul 22 2026

A moderate southerly wind will gradually shift to NW through Wednesday afternoon. Winds will increase to a fresh NW breeze Thursday-Friday, with similar conditions continuing into next week. Significant wave heights will remain moderate this week before long period southerly swell from Hurricane Fausto reaches the coastal waters this weekend.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Ca, None. PZ, Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM PDT Thursday for Mry Bay.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Thursday to 3 AM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Thursday to 3 AM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 3 AM PDT Friday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

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