Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Francisco CA

950 pm PDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Update

Issued at 858 PM PDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Infrared satellite imagery is largely a Ctrl+C, Ctrl+V compared to 24 hours ago with marine stratus blanketing the Pacific Coast, pushing through the Golden Gate, and spreading south through the Salinas Valley. Similar to last night, expect the stratus to expand as the night continues, with many Bay Area locations likely waking up to overcast conditions for tomorrow morning. Main thing to pass along is that the Heat Advisory for the South Bay and interior East Bay was allowed to expire at 7 PM PDT earlier this evening. Full update coming in several hours.

Short Term

, Issued at 1230 PM PDT Sat Jun 13 2026 (This evening through Sunday)

GOES-West visible imagery shows clear skies across most of the area with lingering stratus hugging close to the Pacific coastal communities and western San Francisco. The stratus will continue to recede to the marine environment this afternoon but will return overnight.

Upper-level pattern continues to be dominated by ridging over the eastern Pacific. While a few degrees cooler than yesterday, ridging will keep afternoon high temperatures warmer than usual, particularly for interior areas. High temperatures will be in the 80s to near 100 degrees for far inland locations leading to localized Moderate HeatRisk, especially noted in the Santa Clara Valley and Alameda and Contra Costa counties. The Heat Advisory will end at 7 PM PDT this evening however precautions should continue to be taken to alleviate the risk for heat related illnesses Sunday through Tuesday. Ways to stay safe during the heat is to wear light weight, loose clothing, drink water frequently, and spend time in the shade or in air conditioned buildings. Know the difference between heat exhaustion and heat stroke, keeping in mind that heat stroke is a medical emergency.

High tide flooding will continue to occur nightly along the low- lying areas of the Bayshore and the Pacific Coast through the middle of next week. The combination of an upcoming new moon and lunar perigee on Sunday, about 7 inches of additional tidal anomaly from a combination of storm surge, thermal expansion of the Eastern Pacific, and about 2 inches inches of Sea Level Rise since the vertical datums were established in the 80s and 90s will add up to bring tides up to 2.0 feet above normal through early next week. While lower than the historic tidal flooding in January (peaked at 2.6 ft) the tides this weekend could end up being the highest observed in the Summer, beating the current record of 1.7 ft from July 2022.

Long Term

..issued at 1230 PM PDT Sat Jun 13 2026 (Sunday night through next Friday)

Starting tomorrow, the high pressure situated over the Pacific will flatten and begin to weaken slightly, allowing for daytime temperatures to gradually cool and return to mid-June climatological normal. Usual June stratus along the Pacific Coast is expected for the next several days.

Aviation

(06z TAFS) Issued at 947 PM PDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Satellite imagery highlights the marine stratus filling in across adjacent coastal valleys and gaps. Status is projected to fill in across the San Francisco Bay from KOAK down to KSFO and through the North Bay valleys overnight. More restrictive visibilities will be pinned to the immediate coast and through the Santa Rosa Plain and Salinas Valley. There is some forecast uncertainty regarding the immediate coast (specifically KHAF) regarding how well the stratus deck will scatter out in the afternoon. Outgoing TAFs will carry a pessimistic outlook holding the stratus over the terminal, but it is possible the cloud cover will erode and hold just offshore by the afternoon. Otherwise, light overnight winds will give way to breezy onshore conditions again tomorrow afternoon as marine stratus erodes for most locations.

Vicinity of SFO, Moderate confidence regarding the expansion of stratus to fill in across the Bay and KSFO through the mid-morning hours. Any stratus observed will erode through daylight hours as wind speeds pick up, ranging from the northwest between 15-20 knots by the afternoon.

SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO

Vicinity of SJC and OAK, For OAK, status is expected to fill in this morning bringing IFR conditions before mixing out between 17- 19Z. For SJC, while VFR is currently highlighted, there is a window between 10Z-16Z where marine stratus could briefly press far enough south to induce periodic IFR ceilings. Confidence in this outcome is low at this time.

Monterey Bay Terminals, High confidence persistence forecast for KMRY and KSNS as the marine layer remains deeply entrenched across the bay. IFR to LIFR ceilings will be likely through the night before diurnal heating clears out the stratus deck.

Marine

(tonight through next Friday) Issued at 947 PM PDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Gentle southerly breezes and moderate to rough seas with a low south-southwesterly swell persist across most of the coastal waters. Winds will remain fairly consistent through the weekend as the seas subside. Fresh to strong north winds will develop in the northern outer waters towards the middle of the week.

Beaches

Issued at 1230 PM PDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Long period southerly swell will continue through the weekend, especially for south and southwest facing beaches. Hazardous beach conditions are advertised, specifically for moderate to steeply sloped beaches along the Pacific Coast of the North Bay, San Mateo, Santa Cruz counties. A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect for Pacific coast beaches along the central coast and the Bay Area coast from late tonight through late Tuesday night. Be sure check beach conditions before you head out. Sneaker waves will run up the beach much farther than other waves, potentially catching beachgoers by surprise and resulting in people being swept into the water. Rip currents are strong enough to pull the strongest swimmers away from shore. Swim near a lifeguard if possible. Stay back from the beach, and away from jetties, piers, beachside rocks, and other infrastructure near the water. Never turn your back to the ocean!

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Ca, Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for CAZ006-506- 508.

Beach Hazards Statement from 3 AM PDT Sunday through late Tuesday night for CAZ006-505-509-529-530.

Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for CAZ505-509-529- 530.

PZ, None.

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