Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Francisco CA

932 am PST Mon Jan 26 2026

Short Term

, Issued at 325 AM PST Mon Jan 26 2026 (Today and tonight)

Progressive short wave troughing today will give way to progressive ridging tonight with the ridge axis shifting east of our area by early Tuesday morning. Patchy fog is expected to develop overnight in portions of the North Bay, East Bay and South Bay with coverage or duration not expected to necessitate an advisory attm. Southerly boundary layer winds combined with weak offshore surface winds will help lift temperatures a few degrees across the interior from Sundays highs, remaining right around the same along the coast. Cloudy skies this morning will give way to a mix of Sun and clouds this afternoon, especially inland further helping the modest temperature increases.

Long Term

..issued at 325 AM PST Mon Jan 26 2026 (Tuesday through Sunday)

Extended forecast remains on track with rain chances increasing Tuesday evening, continuing through Wednesday morning. HiRes HRRR/RRFS focus primarily on the North Bay struggling to reach 0.10" with NBM PoPs possibly a little overdone with chances to the south as the best lift associated with the surface boundary continuing to shift north of our area. Drier conditions will persist for the remainder of the week with persistent ridging while the signal for another round of scattered light beneficial rain next weekend beginning to fade while temperatures trend warmer for the weekend, especially across the Central Coast.

Aviation

(18z TAFS) Issued at 930 AM PST Mon Jan 26 2026

Mostly VFR conditions through the TAF period. High clouds will move over the region early in the forecast period and increase on Tuesday and become more widespread ahead of an approaching frontal boundary. Winds will mostly remain light through the TAF period with wind directions being determined by mostly localized effects. Only expecting reduced visibilities at STS early Tuesday morning with the potential for fog do develop in the Russian River Valley and 4-6 SM HZ at LVK.

Vicinity of SFO, VFR through the TAF period. Expect mostly light to moderate northeast winds through the late morning becoming northwesterly late afternoon. Winds become lighter into the evening, before moderate southwesterly winds develop early Tuesday.

SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals, VFR through the TAF period. Light to moderate southerly winds will become northwesterly by this afternoon. Winds will become southerly late this evening and persist into Tuesday morning, increasing to moderate around SNS.

Marine

(today through Saturday) Issued at 930 AM PST Mon Jan 26 2026

Mostly light winds continue to affect the waters with more moderate to breezy winds north of Point Reyes. Winds diminish on Wednesday and switch to northerly that night. Moderate seas will prevail through Tuesday. Conditions deteriorate Wednesday as seas build to become rough to very rough. Additionally, a weak passing storm system will bring light rain to the coastal waters early Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Ca, None. PZ, Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 9 PM PST Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM PST Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

Visit this site often? Consider supporting us with a $10 contribution.
Learn more