, Issued at 107 PM PST Fri Nov 13 2026 (This evening through Saturday night)
A cold front is currently moving through the Bay Area and north Central Coast producing light to moderate, and at times brief heavy downpours. There remain a slight chance (15% or less) of thunderstorms across the North Bay, East Bay, South Bay, and the San Francisco Bay Area through early afternoon. However, there haven't been any reports or indications of lightning so far. We have seen wind gusts up to around 55-65 mph, but those have been mostly in the peaks across the region and up to 55 mph along the coast. Still enough to result in downed trees and branches leading to isolated power outages. Also, have had a few reports of nuisance flooding in the Santa Cruz Mountains and elsewhere across the region. Not expecting much more than typically poor drainage areas and minor roadway flooding across he region. The front will clear the North Bay soon, the Bay Area by around 3 PM, and the Central Coast by 6 PM. In wake of the frontal passage, expecting post frontal rain showers to persist this evening and into early Saturday morning.
Tonight, temperatures are forecast to be cooler than the previous nights. Temperatures are forecast to drop into the lower 40s in the North Bay and southern Salinas Valley with mid 40s to lower 50s elsewhere. The coldest wind sheltered valleys potentially will be as cold as the upper 30s Saturday morning.
Saturday, we are expecting mostly dry conditions across the region with partly to mostly cloudy skies. However, temperatures will struggle to warm to the mid 60s in the lower elevations while the peaks top out in the upper 40s to 50s.
Please check the BEACHES section of the AFD for safety tips and more information on the Beach Hazards Statement/High Surf Warning and Coastal Flood Advisory.
..issued at 107 PM PST Fri Nov 13 2026 (Sunday through next Thursday)
A second cold front is forecast to move through the region on Sunday, first across the North Bay and then through the remainder of the Bay Area and Central Coast in the afternoon and evening hours. Currently, rainfall totals are forecast to be similar to today's frontal passage. In wake of that front, Tuesday morning's minimum temperatures are forecast to be in 30s across the North Bay Valleys, southern Salinas Valley, and 40s elsewhere. Will need to monitor for cold weather products.
From previous forecaster: "Another lull in the rainfall comes later Monday into Tuesday, before a third system comes into the region later on Tuesday through Wednesday and Thursday. It's a little too early at this stage to be confident on how much rain this third system will bring.
As we go through the week, the main point to watch will be soil saturation across the region. The initial rounds of rain will be generally beneficial, reducing our fire weather threat and recharging the snowpack across the Sierra Nevada. Flooding concerns will be minimal with nuisance flooding possible across urban areas and small streams. Outside of these areas, rainwater is absorbed into the ground, which at this time, remains rather dry. As the rain continues to arrive, local soils saturate and are no longer able to hold as much additional rainfall, thus diverting excess water onto the surface and streams and rivers. Wet soils will also increase the chance for shallow landslides across the Bay Area, leading to further damage to homes and properties. Beyond the seven-day outlook, the pattern remains active with a lean towards rainfall totals above the seasonal average through late November. We will need to monitor what this will mean for soil saturation and the possibility for landslides through the next week."
(06z TAFS) Issued at 931 PM PST Fri Nov 13 2026
More widespread VFR conditions are expected to persist with isolated MVFR conditions overnight that may be accompanied by scattered showers. There is moderate to high confidence of ceilings scattering out tonight with shower activity decreasing by early Saturday morning. Light south-southwest winds will persist through tomorrow afternoon with another system arriving late Saturday night into Sunday.
Vicinity of SFO, There is high confidence of VFR conditions continuing into Saturday afternoon with isolated instances of MVFR possible as the scattered rain showers make their way through the forecast area. Scattered showers are still possible tonight as we head into the morning hours, but will become less likely after midnight. Ceilings will continue to scatter out overnight into Saturday morning. Light south-southwest winds will persist into Saturday.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals, Scattered showers continue to move through the Central Coast but will taper off overnight. Clear skies and light onshore flow return by late tomorrow morning before winds shift southerly again late evening/overnight ahead of the next system arriving Sunday.
(tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 931 PM PST Fri Nov 13 2026
Scattered showers and a moderate northwesterly breeze will continue over the marine environment through early Saturday morning. Very dangerous conditions for mariners continues with wave heights building significantly tonight into Saturday. Very high seas are expected on Saturday with significant wave heights up to 25 feet forecast across the coastal waters. Wave heights subside slightly Sunday but very high seas will persist through early next week. The next round of fresh to strong southerly winds will arrive Saturday night into Sunday ahead of an approaching cold front. Widespread rain returns early Sunday and continues into Monday with winds decreasing and shifting northwesterly after cold frontal passage.
Issued at 931 PM PST Fri Nov 13 2026
High Surf Warning: A High Surf Warning is now in effect through 4AM Sunday. A series of hurricane force low pressure systems will impact the NE Pacific through early next week. These storms will produce very high NW swell that will impact the coast and bring very hazardous coastal conditions. The peak of this swell is set to arrive on Saturday with breaking waves up to 35 feet expected along the coast in addition to strong rip currents and an increased risk of sneaker waves. Occasional sets of 40-50 ft waves are likely at favored breakpoints (i.e. Mavericks). These waves bring tremendous power that will overpower anyone in the water and cause coastal erosion. The risk of drowning is very high this weekend. Do not go in the water, avoid climbing on the rocks or leaning over seawalls, and never turn your back on the ocean. Wave amplitude will abate somewhat on Sunday before a new round of very high swell arrives Monday.
Coastal Flood Advisory (Saturday):
The swell on Saturday brings a different variety of coastal flooding as very large breaking waves pile up along the Pacific coast. Research shows wave run-up increases the mean water level by 10-20% of the breaking wave height across exposed beaches. This higher water elevation sets the stage for large waves to crash over sea walls and run up beaches onto adjacent infrastructure, particularly during high tide.
Ca, High Surf Warning until 4 AM PST Sunday for CAZ006-505-509-529- 530.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM PST Saturday for CAZ006-505- 509-529-530.
PZ, Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Sunday for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
