, Issued at 1248 PM PST Fri Dec 26 2025 (This evening through Saturday)
A surface low pressure system off the Northern California Coast will move inland this afternoon, bringing more rain and a slight chance for embedded thunderstorms. Hazards will be lightning, locally heavy rainfall, erratic/gusty winds, and small hail. Waterspouts/tornadoes can't be ruled out either with the sufficient shear. The limiting factor of the three ingredients (lift, instability, and moisture) needed for thunderstorms will be moisture as PWAT has tanked to 0.56 inches (12Z sounding) which is near the daily mean (0.52 inches) for this date and time. Remember: when thunder roars, go indoors! and see a flash, dash inside!
..issued at 1248 PM PST Fri Dec 26 2025 (Saturday night through next Thursday)
Surface high pressure over the Eastern Pacific Ocean will waste no time building into the Pacific Northwest behind the aforementioned system. As a result, dry northwesterly flow will return, restoring order. Calm and clear conditions will allow for radiational cooling and thus cold overnight conditions to return. Conditions will likely feel colder than what the thermometer reads due to damp conditions as well as the recent above normal temperatures. Global ensemble clusters are in agreement that an anomalously high amplitude longwave ridge will be over the West Coast through Tuesday, keeping the forecast more of the same between tomorrow and then. The pattern will change Wednesday when some form of troughing (either cutoff or open wave) gets absorbed into the longwave pattern. This will bring renewed chances for rainfall and maybe even thunderstorms. Soils and waterways will have time to relax between now and then; even so, it seems purely beneficial aside from a firework spectator standpoint.
(00z TAFS) Issued at 454 PM PST Fri Dec 26 2025
The cold front with showers and breezy to windy conditions continues to move eastward across the forecast area. VFR-MVFR tonight and Saturday with exception of patchy morning fog /LIFR- IFR/.
Vicinity of SFO, The cold front has passed by and the wind has shifted to westerly. VFR tonight and Saturday. West-northwest wind 10 to 15 knots.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals, The cold front will move through within the next hour with quickly passing showers and gusty winds, the front continuing to move eastward away from the area tonight. Otherwise VFR with post frontal winds becoming southwest to west near 10 knots tonight and Saturday.
(tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 418 PM PST Fri Dec 26 2025
Strong southwesterly winds will veer to become northwesterly behind the rain band. Embedded thunderstorms are possible through the afternoon and into the evening with this rain band. Very rough seas will prevail through tomorrow morning due to a combination of westerly swell and southerly wind waves. Hazardous marine conditions will continue through the weekend with conditions improving by Monday.
Issued at 420 PM PST Fri Dec 26 2025
A High Surf Advisory is then valid for the coast through 10 PM tonight. Expect large breaking waves up to 25 feet, strong rip currents and sneaker waves. Dangerous swimming and surfing conditions and localized beach erosion can be expected. Sneaker waves can sweep across the shoreline without warning, pulling people into the sea from rocks, jetties and beaches. Large breaking waves can overpower swimmers resulting in significant physical injury and increase the risk of drowning.
Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf and NEVER turn your back on the ocean. Monitor local weather, surf and tide forecasts at www.weather.gov/mtr.
Ca, Flood Watch until 10 PM PST this evening for CAZ006-502>506- 508>510-512>518-528>530.
High Surf Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for CAZ006-505- 509-529-530.
PZ, Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.
