, Issued at 100 AM PDT Fri May 15 2026 (Friday through Sunday Night)
Zonal flow today with high pressure over the Pacific and upper level troughing sliding into the northern PacNW marking the start of an inside slider pattern. Northwesterly winds will increase throughout the day with gusts up to 35 to 45 mph along the coast, across the higher elevations and ridgelines, and favored gaps and passes. The Salinas Valley will see an increase in winds as well, with gusts up to 25 to 35 mph favoring the northern half of the valley. The forecast highs for Friday will be similar Thursday's, perhaps a few degrees warmer.
Saturday into Sunday, the aforementioned upper level trough digs and deepens into the intermountain west and into then into the Great Basin. This will bring an additional burst of winds, which will have a more north-northwest to northerly component. Peak gusts up to 35 to 45 mph along the coast, across the higher elevations and ridgelines, and favored gaps and passes. Locally higher perhaps close to 50 mph are possible for points at the immediate coast and the highest ridge points. The Salinas Valley will be gusty too, with gusts up to 25 to 45 mph favoring the northern half of the valley. Elsewhere, northerly winds may gust up to 20 to 35 mph. Timing for the strongest winds currently looks to be between late Saturday morning through early Sunday morning, peaking Saturday afternoon through the evening. Northerly winds, means a burst of drier air coming our way leading to elevated fire weather conditions for the interior Bay Area and Central Coast.
The pattern looks to shift slightly on Monday as the trough moves eastward, which will continue ease the northerlies throughout the day. By Tuesday, onshore flow returns as troughing continues to travel eastward and high pressure builds in over the Eastern Pacific. Agree with the prior shift's thinking in that the temperatures may be a bit too warm for Wednesday-Friday. Guidance shows ridging holding over the Pacific, while an upper trough forms southwest of CA.
..issued at 100 AM PDT Fri May 15 2026 (Monday through Thursday)
The pattern looks to shift slightly on Monday as the trough moves eastward, which will continue ease the northerlies throughout the day. By Tuesday, onshore flow returns as troughing continues to travel eastward and high pressure builds in over the Eastern Pacific. Agree with the prior shift's thinking in that the temperatures may be a bit too warm for Wednesday-Friday. Guidance shows ridging holding over the Pacific, while an upper trough forms southwest of CA.
(12z TAFS) Issued at 511 AM PDT Fri May 15 2026
VFR conditions everywhere except for KHAF, KMRY, and KSNS where MVFR ceilings will continue through the late morning. Widespread W to NW breezy winds prevail from late Friday morning into the night as the pressure gradient tightens. Winds will reach their maxima in the afternoon with a few terminals experiencing moderate gusts. Slight decrease in winds are expected overnight but they should increase in strength again by Saturday morning.
Vicinity of SFO, VFR through the TAF period. Biggest threat are the moderate westerly winds with gusts that may exceed 30 kts Friday afternoon. Winds diminish slightly overnight as well as the wind gust threat, but are expected to increase again Saturday morning.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals, MVFR ceilings are forecast through the morning before mixing out by 17-19Z (10am-12pm PDT). Onshore winds increase by the afternoon and decrease slightly overnight. Low confidence on whether MVFR ceilings will return early Saturday morning, though KMRY may see a few to scattered low-level cloud deck.
(today through Wednesday) Issued at 511 AM PDT Fri May 15 2026
Widespread Gale-force northwest gusts have built across the waters, and look to strengthen through the weekend. Coastal jets will result in locally stronger gusts with occasional storm- force gusts possible. Strong wind driven seas are expected to be between 12 to 19 feet. The strong winds peak on Sunday and will steadily diminish into the beginning of the next work week.
Issued at 250 PM PDT Thu May 14 2026
A Beach Hazards Statement has been issued for west facing beaches along the Pacific Coast from 3 PM Friday through 9 AM Monday due to strong winds over the marine environment leading to hazardously strong wind waves and overall rough seas. Dangerous swimming, boating, and surfing conditions can be expected. Large breaking waves can overpower swimmers resulting in significant physical injury and increase the risk of drowning. Gusts will stay strong along the immediate coast, causing blowing and drifting sand and increased sea spray. Water rescue attempts may be hampered by reduced visibilities from the sea spray. Remember, NEVER turn your back on the ocean.
RGass
Ca, Beach Hazards Statement from 3 PM PDT this afternoon through Monday morning for CAZ006-505-509-530.
PZ, Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Sunday for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Mry Bay.
Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT Sunday for Mry Bay.
Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10- 60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10- 60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.
Gale Warning from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.
Gale Warning until 9 AM PDT Saturday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Storm Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday evening for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
