Issued at 901 PM PST Sat Nov 22 2025
Not much change to the forecast. The challenge for tonight will be the expansion of the stratus and if we get any fog in the valleys. Satellite imagery this evening shows stratus hugging Marin, San Francisco, and San Mateo County coastlines, with some of it seeping into the North Bay valleys. Current thinking is that the stratus should continue to expand into the North Bay and down the Central Coast. Uncertainty remains on the East Bay on whether it could see influences from the Tule Fog again or if the stratus makes a good enough push inland.
, Issued at 202 PM PST Sat Nov 22 2025 (This evening through Sunday)
As stated, nearly copy/paste from yesterday with almost everyone within 3-4 degrees from 24 hours ago. Spread of surface obs showing a hint of a marine layer forming topping out around 1000 feet. Some additional hints of more moist NW flow as well as marine stratus starts to form of the coast of Sonoma and Marin counties. This stratus trend will likely continue southward as we hang on to the marine layer going into tonight. Slight chance of valley fog going into Sunday morning as well. Another great weather day Sunday with temps a couple of degrees cooler than today.
..issued at 202 PM PST Sat Nov 22 2025 (Sunday night through next Friday)
Quiet and dry conditions continue through most of next week as a slight warming trend ensues under the influence of a broad high pressure ridge aloft. As we approach the end of the week, the ridge starts to break down amid very strong ridge amplification upstream into the Gulf of Alaska. The result a couple a days later will be a fairly notable southward dive of the jet stream and displacement of very cold air from the arctic into the mountain west and central plains. Guidance is starting to show more agreement on a more eastward trajectory of the trough axis, which would be the drier solution for us - potentially completely dry. At this point we're leaning more towards the potential of gusty offshore winds across the North Bay just beyond our 7 day period. As always, stay tuned to the forecast for the latest. Slight shifts in a system like this can mean very different things for us.
(06z TAFS) Issued at 957 PM PST Sat Nov 22 2025
A pool of near surface cooler air with stratus /IFR/ over the coastal waters continues to drift southeastward and over the Bay Area from San Mateo County northward. Elsewhere satellite imagery and surface observations show it's mainly clear /VFR/. Night-time radiative cooling to space favors ongoing stratus and patches of fog /LIFR-IFR/ tonight and Sunday morning. With the inland expanding maritime influence described, this may help limit dense fog tonight and Sunday morning, however it can't be completely ruled out.
Vicinity of SFO, So far VFR has held at the terminal with stratus sitting out by the San Bruno Gap, with a west-northwest wind recently up to 13 knots. For the overnight and Sunday morning guidance shows an increasing probability of LIFR-IFR. 00z HREF shows a 30% probability of IFR at 21z (1 pm PST) Sunday.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO. VFR this evening, then there's increasing probability of LIFR-IFR tonight and Sunday morning, with 30%-40% probability of IFR lingering Sunday afternoon.
Monterey Bay Terminals, Low confidence VFR continues through late evening with an increasing probability of low stratus /LIFR-IFR/ overnight and Sunday morning as well. Winds mainly light southeast winds tonight and Sunday morning. Winds shifting to onshore 5 to 10 knots mid to late Sunday afternoon and early evening.
(tonight through next Friday) Issued at 908 PM PST Sat Nov 22 2025
Moderate seas will prevail through late Sunday, resulting in hazardous marine conditions. Seas will then subside through the middle of the upcoming week. Gentle to moderate northerly breezes will persist through at least midweek. Winds are forecast to increase and seas build late next week.
Issued at 935 AM PST Sat Nov 22 2025
A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect through Monday evening. A long period northwesterly swell will result in an increased risk for sneaker waves and rip currents. Breaking waves of 13 to 18 feet are expected. Sneaker waves can unexpectedly run significantly farther up the beach than normal, including over rocks and jetties. Rip currents are typically more frequent and stronger in the vicinity of jetties, inlets, and piers.
Ca, Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for CAZ006-505- 509-529-530.
PZ, Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.
