Discussion, UPDATED National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1115 AM PST Wed Feb 25 2026
, New AVIATION,
.KEY MESSAGES, Updated at 1223 AM PST Wed Feb 25 2026
- Warmer and drier conditions for the next few days
- Cooler conditions this upcoming weekend
Issued at 857 AM PST Wed Feb 25 2026
No changes to the ongoing forecast this morning. Low clouds will linger through much of the day with temperatures reaching the mid 60s across the North Bay and upper 60s to lower 70s elsewhere (especially across the interior Central Coast) as high pressure builds in from the south. There is some potential for low clouds to become scattered by late afternoon and into the evening before low ceilings return overnight. Otherwise, the ongoing forecast remains on track. Please see the previous forecast discussions below for additional details.
RGass
, Issued at 1223 AM PST Wed Feb 25 2026 (Today and tonight)
Scattered to widespread showers linger across topographically favored regions of the Bay Area and into Santa Cruz County, the remnants of a moisture plume impacting the state. Shower coverage is expected to diminish through the morning hours with isolated showers possible across terrain-favored areas of the South Bay and Central Coast this afternoon. Additional rainfall totals are nothing to write home about. At best, around a tenth to a quarter of an inch in the southeast-facing coastal slopes from Marin County down through western Santa Cruz County, in addition to the Berkeley Hills. In addition, areas of mist and fog are possible this morning in the wake of the rainfall, with the focus on the valleys of the North Bay, South Bay, and interior East Bay. Otherwise, today should be much drier, if muggier, and kick off a warming trend that will continue into the next few days, as high temperatures range from the upper 50s to lower 60s in the Bay Area Pacific coastline, to the middle 60s into the lower 70s in the interior valleys and Monterey Bay region, and the lower to middle 70s in the Central Coast valleys.
..issued at 1223 AM PST Wed Feb 25 2026 (Thursday through Tuesday)
Dry and warm conditions continue through the next few days with the warmest conditions expected on Friday, when highs range from the middle to upper 60s in the Bay Area Pacific coast to the middle to upper 70s in the interior valleys.
The approach of a cut off low on Sunday and Monday will interrupt this warming trend, with the low center expected to pass to the north near Cape Mendocino and the northern tier of the state. As the previous forecaster noted, light showers are possible but no model output indicates anything meaningful in the region. Even the 95th percentile rainfall totals from the NBM keeps maximum 24-hour rain totals over the coastal ranges at a little over half an inch from Sunday at 4 PM to Monday at the same time. Or to put it in other words, there is only a 5% chance that the coastal ranges will see rain totals over half an inch within a 24-hour period ending Monday afternoon. Longer range outlooks continue to lack support for more impactful storms but ensemble mean output fields do suggest the possibility for a somewhat active pattern across the West Coast.
(18z TAFS) Issued at 1100 AM PST Wed Feb 25 2026
MVFR to IFR ceilings are forecast to continue thanks to onshore flow. A diffuse frontal boundary will creep southward before losing definition later this afternoon and into tonight. While rain isn't expected, cigs are forecast to lift (with a potential period of VFR) late this afternoon and even into the pre-dawn hours on Thursday, though confidence in the exact evolution remains low to medium. KSTS, KAPC, and KLVK seem to stand the best chance for a 4-8 hour window of VFR after 00Z. During this time period, clouds are probable to scatter such that the stage will be set for the development of BR and potentially FG. Eventually, this BR/FG could lift into an IFR ceiling by sunrise Thursday morning. Elsewhere, a low-confidence MVFR ceiling forecast remains in tact, though trends in satellite imagery will need to be monitored. Refinements to the current TAF set are probable, especially at KSJC. Outside of largely diurnal winds, SW'ly winds will become more N'ly, especially across the North Bay.
Vicinity of SFO, MVFR is forecast to prevail, though some guidance suggests that VFR may transpire during the busy evening push after 00Z Thursday. Confidence is high enough to advertise IMC and so impacts are still anticipated. Wind direction is anticipated to vary through the TAF cycle, but speeds largely below 10 knots should equate to flexibility in airport takeoff/landing configs. High-end MVFR/occasional VFR is forecast to yield to borderline-IFR ceilings between 10 and 15Z on Thursday, most certainly impacting the AM peak traffic period. VFR is forecast to return Thursday afternoon, but with low confidence.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO. Occasional breaks in ceilings, but prolonged period of VAPS are not expected over the next 24 to 30 hours.
Monterey Bay Terminals, Currently VFR with variable wind directions; speeds less than 10 knots. There is low to medium confidence that MVFR and IFR stratus returns between 00-03Z, with especially at KMRY. Depending on the magnitude of onshore flow, refinements to timing of the onset of stratus may be needed. At this time, VFR is anticipated to return around 15Z Thursday for KSNS, but less likely at KMRY. There are some hints at visibility reductions below 2 miles, however, this should be short-lived. Still, future TAF sets may opt to advertise intermittent visibility below 2 miles.
(today through Monday) Issued at 857 AM PST Wed Feb 25 2026
Moderate seas will prevail through the weekend. Moderate northerly breezes will prevail through Friday, backing to become northwesterly by the weekend.
Ca, None. PZ, None.
