, Issued at 1225 AM PDT Thu Aug 13 2026 (Today and tonight)
The upper-level low remains off Point Conception and will continue to bring up to a 15% chance for elevated rain showers/thunderstorms through early Thursday morning across the Central Coast as it moves inland. This will bring near-critical fire weather conditions through Thursday early morning across Monterey and San Benito Counties. Erratic/gusty outflow winds up to 40 mph can be expected with any elevated rain showers/thunderstorms. The main concern is lightning which will pose the risk for new fire starts and has the potential to hinder operations on the Timber Fire. Smoke from the Timber Fire will continue to be transported into the Central Coast via light southwesterly winds. Smoke will get trapped under the inversion at night/in the morning, making the appearance and smell worse. The proximity to the low will allow for a relatively deeper marine layer across the Central Coast (2,000 feet) than the Bay Area (1,800 feet). Sensible weather wise, the cooling and moistening trend will continue through Friday with temperatures well below normal.
..issued at 1225 AM PDT Thu Aug 13 2026 (Friday through Wednesday)
Friday will see the coolest conditions of the week with well below normal temperatures and a deep marine layer as upper-level troughing persists across the West Coast. By the weekend, upper-level ridging will build in to the Desert Southwest and an upper-level low will develop well off the West Coast. This will lead to cooler conditions with a deeper marine layer in the Bay Area and hotter conditions with a more compressed marine layer for the Central Coast. Temperatures will remain below normal with the higher terrain moderating to near normal with the help of warming 850 mb temperatures.
(06z TAFS) Issued at 919 PM PDT Wed Aug 12 2026
Currently VFR for majority of terminals with KHAF and Monterey Bay sites in MVFR/IFR. Deeper marine layer (1800ft to 2000ft) and stronger onshore flow will result in more widespread stratus intrusion while an offshore eddy will continue to complicate timing of MVFR/IFR ceilings for the Bay Area, especially KSFO. A quasi- stationary upper level low and associated trough at our latitude will produce gusty onshore flow at times through the TAF period.
Vicinity of SFO, Gusty onshore flow will persist through much of the TAF period with a better inland push overnight than we've seen the past week. However, as a mentioned above, an offshore eddy will continue to complicate timing and coverage of MVFR/IFR ceilings, especially at KSFO.
SFO Bridge Approach, Expect MVFR/IFR ceilings in vicinity of KSFO even if not measured at the terminal.
Monterey Bay Terminals, Quasi-stationary upper level low will eventually produce and maintain IFR/LIFR ceilings overnight through at least late morning, and possibly into the afternoon especially at KMRY. A slight chance, but low confidence of KMRY remaining socked in through the forecast period.
(tonight through next Tuesday) Issued at 919 PM PDT Wed Aug 12 2026
Fresh to strong northwest winds with isolated gale force gusts will ease by early Thursday morning, with rough seas becoming moderate by Thursday evening. Long period southerly swell will gradually increase Thursday reaching 16 to 18 seconds (possibly higher at times) by Friday and continuing through the remainder of the weekend. Visibility may decrease due to haze and smoke nearby the Big Sur coastline due to the Timber fire.
Ca, Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM PDT early this morning for CAZ006-506-508-529-530.
PZ, Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
