, Issued at 1143 AM PDT Sun Sep 6 2026 (This afternoon through Monday)
Hazardous conditions at Pacific Coast beaches continues to be the weather headline through Monday. Long period southerly swell from distant Hurricane Marie will result in an increased risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents with breaking waves up to 10 feet. Stay off the beach and remain out of the water to mitigate your risk. Minor coastal flooding will be possible during high tide this evening for bayshore locations along the San Pablo Bay in Marin County. Today will be the last day of well below normal temperatures before the warming and drying trend kicks off Monday. The marine layer continues to struggle to come back in full force with low confidence in it doing so through Monday and even into the long term forecast.
..issued at 1143 AM PDT Sun Sep 6 2026 (Monday night through next Saturday)
Anomalously high heights from upper-level ridging across the Desert Southwest will nose in from the east on Tuesday, peaking Wednesday into Thursday. The forecast has trended significantly warmer and drier. The reason being an upper-level shortwave trough will dig well of the West Coast and join forces with Post-Tropical Cyclone Marie and become a cutoff low. The overall weakness of the low and its independence from the jet stream will give the ridge precedence over the forecast as its allowed to join forces with ridging over the Northeastern Pacific Ocean. A weaker than normal sea breeze circulation will mean that even the coast will be impacted due to limited onshore flow and thus marine layer formation. There is now widespread moderate to areas of major HeatRisk, meaning that at this point a Heat Advisory would be needed for most of the area Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees above normal and likely feel worse due to us coming off the heels of well below normal temperatures. To put this upcoming event into context, 850 mb temperatures and 500 mb heights will be between the 90th percentile and record values. Needless to say, rain chances from remnant tropical moisture have been wiped out. An approaching upper-level trough will tamp down the ridge Friday into next weekend, cooling temperatures to near normal and increasing onshore flow.
(18z TAFS) Issued at 1045 AM PDT Sun Sep 6 2026
VFR as low stratus has cleared the Bay Area terminals and fog dissipated across the North Bay. Expect west to northwesterly winds to increase late this morning and more so by the afternoon before easing after sunset. Low to moderate confidence of stratus returning tonight into Monday morning. VFR conditions return by late Monday morning once any low clouds that do develop dissipate and give way to sunny sky conditions. Onshore winds also increase by Monday afternoon.
Vicinity of SFO, VFR. High confidence for VFR conditions to prevail through the evening with increasing onshore winds with gusts up to 25 kt this afternoon. Winds ease a bit late in the evening with the potential for MVFR CIGs to return early Monday morning, however confidence is low to moderate (20-45% probability based off of the NBM). Any low CIGs that do develop will dissipate by around 16Z-17Z Monday with VFR conditions returning and increasing onshore winds.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals, VFR. Onshore winds increase this afternoon and early evening before diminishing after sunset. There is a 20-55% probability of seeing MVFR conditions returning after 09Z Monday and 30-40% of IFR conditions between 10Z-16Z. Thus, have introduced IFR/MVFR CIGs around 12-17Z.
(today through Friday) Issued at 1045 AM PDT Sun Sep 6 2026
Northerly winds gradually strengthen today from moderate to fresh with strong gusts becoming more widespread. Locally stronger gusts are expected within the Monterey Bay, coastal jet regions, and within the Golden Gate channel. Winds diminish everywhere except the far northern outer waters by late Monday with weaker winds to prevail through the rest of the week. Long period southerly swell associated with tropical activity in the Eastern Pacific will continue to impact the coastal waters into next week.
Issued at 538 PM PDT Sat Sep 5 2026
A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect through Labor Day as the swell from tropical cyclones Marie and Karina reach the coast. Waves from these cyclones will travel over 1,000 miles in all directions, gradually flattening out to low amplitude, but long period swell. These waves aren't very intimidating if you're on a boat in the open ocean, but the long period allows them to push much farther up the beach. Long period swell always increases the chance for sneaker waves, but that's particularly true this weekend since there are 2 different sets of southerly swell, and their energy will periodically combine. In addition to sneaker waves, expect strong rip currents and breaking waves up to 10 ft. As this is a holiday weekend and the weather is otherwise pretty nice, the exposure to the risk is high. Avoid the water if you're not an expert swimmer. If caught in a rip current, swim parallel to shore until you stop feeling the pull. Even on the beach, be prepared for sneaker waves this weekend and never turn your back on the ocean.
Ca, Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for CAZ006-505- 509-529-530.
PZ, Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
