Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Francisco CA

108 pm PDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Short Term

, Issued at 106 PM PDT Tue Mar 10 2026 (This evening through Wednesday)

One more pleasant day expected before the warm-up begins! Afternoon temperatures will peak in the 60s near the coast and lower 70s across the interior under mostly sunny skies. Tonight, expecting less in the way of cloud cover with low temperatures Wednesday morning cooling into the upper 30s to low 40s in the North Bay and colder locations across the interior Central Coast. Otherwise, low 40s to upper 40s are expected elsewhere.

Tomorrow will be the beginning of a warming trend as high pressure builds in from the west. Temperatures will reach 5-15 degrees above seasonal averages under mostly sunny sky conditions.

Long Term

..issued at 106 PM PDT Tue Mar 10 2026 (Wednesday night through next Monday)

The ridge aloft will continue to strengthen through the weekend and into early next week. By Monday and Tuesday of next week, temperatures in the warmest interior spots have a 50%-90% probability of exceeding 90 degrees F. This is when 850mb temperatures approach 20 degrees C. These temperatures would be 15- 25 degrees above seasonal averages if they were to materialize. On Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday we have Moderate HeatRisk across the interior and even some coastal spots such as the Santa Cruz region. These days, monthly records for the month of March have the potential to be met or broken. This is also when the CPC's 6-10 Day Temperature Outlook shows greater than 90% probability of above normal temperatures across the entire Bay Area and Central Coast. However, we are not anticipating any strong offshore winds with this event as the center of the high pressure builds right overhead. It goes without say that rain is not anticipated through the forecast period.

Aviation

(18z TAFS) Issued at 1150 AM PDT Tue Mar 10 2026

VFR through the TAF period. Mostly moderate winds build in the mid afternoon with breezy to gusty winds at HAF, SFO, and OAK. Winds reduce into the night, becoming light across the region. Moderate winds return Wednesday afternoon.

Vicinity of SFO, VFR through the TAF period. Moderate west winds become breezy to gusty in the mid afternoon with peak gusts around 24 kts. These winds linger into the night before becoming light. Winds build again into Wednesday afternoon, but with less gusts.

SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals, VFR through the TAF period. Moderate west to northwest winds last into the night before becoming light.

Marine

(today through Sunday) Issued at 853 AM PDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Near gale to gale force winds affect the waters through the day and into the night. As a result, very rough seas will build in the outer waters. Winds reduce into early Wednesday, but rough seas and fresh to strong northerly breezes will keep hazardous conditions around through the weekend.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Ca, None. PZ, Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Wednesday to 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

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