Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Francisco CA

335 am PST Sat Jan 24 2026

Short Term

, Issued at 326 AM PST Sat Jan 24 2026 (Today and tonight)

Winds along the higher peaks in the North Bay became strong early on into the night and these winds will begin to spread aloft across the region further into the morning. Meanwhile, winds at the surface are just about still, which has allowed formation of fog and low clouds. The increased offshore flow aloft will introduce drier air through the morning, with some of the surface moisture being chipped away as the column of air mixes.

This will lead to quicker clearing of skies than previous days. Short-term high-resolution models show a quick clearing of most of the area by the mid morning as the dry flow continues to build in. The clearer skies will allow for temperatures in lower elevations to see high temperatures around 5 degrees or so warmer than yesterday (widespread lower 60s). Winds in the higher elevations and aloft will stay on the stronger side, but the potential for that wind to make it into the lower elevations is poor.

Winds look to reduce into the night, but the dry air remains, leading to clear skies, but cooler low temperatures. Sunday night offers lows in the 40s and 50s along the coast, but upper 30s and lower 40s for the more inland areas. The more interior areas could see lows into the mid 30s, and a few localized spots in the lower 30s.

Long Term

..issued at 326 AM PST Sat Jan 24 2026 (Sunday through Friday)

The offshore flow turns back to weak onshore flow further into Sunday, but another ridge forms in the jet stream into late Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures will see some light reductions and increases through this quick change, but nothing extreme. This will also make marine layer, low cloud, and fog forecasting interesting into the next work week as the pressure falls and rises. Another element to consider will be the return of high clouds Sunday and into the work week, which could complicate overnight cooling and fog development. Fun for our aviation forecasters!

The mid week forecast still is a matter of the GFS vs every other model. The GFS has the ridge strengthen and places the approaching cold front and low pressure well to the north, continuing our dry trend. Other models just have the ridge push east as the front and low move into the area, leading to widespread light rain chances into Wednesday. The GFS output doesn't look like a typical mid- winter set up, so there is a lot of doubt there. The official forecast leans on the ECMWF's pattern, which would lead to light rain early Wednesday through mid Thursday.

Aviation

(12z TAFS) Issued at 335 AM PST Sat Jan 24 2026

There are areas of stratus and fog /LIFR-MVFR/ however satellite and surface observations also show partial clearing. Drier north to northeast winds aloft will help mix out stratus and fog through morning. VFR prevails later in the morning and afternoon. Dry weather tonight and Sunday morning supports VFR as well.

Vicinity of SFO, Stratus/ MVFR/ until 1630z then VFR today, tonight and Sunday morning. Mainly north to northeast wind 5 to 10 knots.

SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals, Stratus /MVFR/ until 17z then VFR today, tonight and Sunday morning. Light and variable winds becoming north to northwesterly 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Winds southeasterly 5 to 10 knots tonight and Sunday morning.

Marine

(today through Thursday) Issued at 326 AM PST Sat Jan 24 2026

Moderate to fresh northerly breezes today and tonight. Wave heights continue to subside today. Improving wind and sea conditions will persist through the weekend to mid next week.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Ca, None. PZ, None.

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