Issued at 905 PM PST Sat Nov 15 2025
No update to the forecast this evening as we watch the backside of the exiting system to our south and east continue to produce beneficial rainfall across the Central Coast. The rain shield began to move across the Bay Area over the past couple of hours and will eventually shift into the North Bay. The coldest cloud tops have spread over much of our area, so there may be pockets of moderate rainfall at times, however light rain is expected for most locations. The next round of rain expected late Sunday night into early Monday morning is expected to bring more impacts. Strong winds and periods of heavy rainfall are expected to move onshore late Sunday evening and move across our area overnight into Monday. The Monday morning commute may be a messy one, give yourself plenty of extra time if necessary.
, Issued at 107 PM PST Sat Nov 15 2025 (This evening through Sunday)
Light rain spreading over the region from the southeast will continue through this evening. This is a result of wrap around moisture from the same surface low which brought us the heavier rain Friday. This surface low, currently centered around the Channel Islands, will gradually drift northeastward through tonight and Sunday morning. No major winds are anticipated, as all of the stronger jet energy remains focused further south. All-in- all today is just a nice, calm, stratiform rain day. Rain totals so far have been light, but appreciable for points further south where rain has been ongoing since early this morning. As of writing, about 0.7" near Fort Hunter Liggett, 0.25-0.5" up the Big Sur coast, and a few hundredths to a tenth around Monterey Bay. These totals will tick up as the rain continues this evening. Overall by Sunday morning we can expect 1-2" along the Big Sur coast, about an inch in the vicinity of Monterey Bay, southern Santa Clara, and Santa Cruz mtns, 0.5-0.75" across the Bay Area, and ranging from about 0.25-0.75" across the North Bay.
..issued at 107 PM PST Sat Nov 15 2025 (Sunday night through next Friday)
We don't really get much of a break on Sunday before the next system moves into play. Southerly winds will begin to increase late Sunday afternoon ahead of a cold front surge southeast associated with a modest surface low progged to move into the PNW. Overall presentation of the associated rainfall will likely mimics this past Friday's system in terms of amounts, with the typical terrain-enhanced spots picking up more. The heaviest rainfall looks to occur during the overnight hours into Monday morning before sunrise, when FROPA occurs. Totals on the order of 0.75-1.00" can be expected across lower elevations, while higher elevations of the North Bay and coastal ranges may see up to 2". Locally up to 3" in favored areas of the Santa Cruz mtns and Big Sur coast. There is also a slight chance for thunderstorms during this overnight period as the cold front moves through (embedded thunderstorms), as well as into Monday afternoon in the post- frontal environment (scattered/isolated thunderstorms). Potential threats around any thunderstorms that do develop include locally gusty winds to 45 mph and a few lightning strikes.
Once this system moves out, the story turns to chilly temperatures. We aren't seeing any frost/freeze as it stands now, but Monday and beyond looks like highs in the 50s and morning lows in the 40s across the board through much of the week. Next rain maker slated for Thursday, but a bit of uncertainty is tamping down confidence in a detailed forecast at this juncture.
(06z TAFS) Issued at 917 PM PST Sat Nov 15 2025
Currently a mixed bag of IFR-VFR at the terminals with rain falling across the region. Steady rain will continue through mid-to-late morning before pulling east out of the area. While rain showers can't be ruled out from this timeframe to early afternoon, it looks like there will be at least somewhat of a break and perhaps even an improvement to VFR. Rain showers return by mid-afternoon with moderate to heavy rainfall on tap just beyond the 24 hour TAF period. Winds will generally back through the TAF period. MVFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period with conditions expected to deteriorate below MVFR if a moderate to heavy rain shower develops over a terminal.
Vicinity of SFO, Currently MVFR with southwesterly flow and light rain. Light rain will continue through mid-morning. Rain showers are possible in the late morning to early afternoon time frame, but the best chance will be late afternoon. Moderate to heavy rainfall returns late tomorrow night/early Monday morning in the form of a fast moving cold front. MVFR ceilings are expected to prevail through the TAF period with improvement to VFR possible between rain showers. Winds will back ahead of the cold front to become southerly with a quick return to southwesterly after.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals, Currently MVFR with southwesterly flow and light rain at MRY and MVFR with drainage flow at SNS. Steady light to moderate rainfall is expected through mid-morning with IFR/MVFR conditions expected to prevail. Conditions will improve by late morning with intermittent VFR possible, especially if there aren't lingering rain showers. Rain showers return tomorrow night.
(tonight through next Friday) Issued at 917 PM PST Sat Nov 15 2025
Rain will persist through the night and into tomorrow morning with widespread hazardous marine conditions arriving tomorrow evening. Moderate to fresh northwesterly breezes will back to become southwesterly tomorrow afternoon. Moderate to heavy rainfall returns tomorrow night into Monday morning with an accompanying chance of thunderstorms. Strong to near gale northwesterly breezes with isolated gale force gusts are expected Monday. Moderate seas tomorrow will build to become very rough for the inner waters and outer waters by Monday morning. Seas slowly begin to abate Wednesday. Rain chances return Wednesday afternoon.
Ca, None. PZ, Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Sunday to 3 PM PST Monday for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Sunday to 3 PM PST Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm- Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
