Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Francisco CA

1119 am PDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Short Term

, Issued at 1200 AM PDT Tue Jun 30 2026 (Tonight through Wednesday)

Troughing continues to dominate the upper level pattern across the western U.S. and will continue through the middle to end of the work week. GOES satellite imagery shows the marine stratus continuing to push inland into coastal communities from Point Reyes southward as of 1200 AM PDT. Marine stratus will continue to fill into the area overnight clearing late this morning. Today, high temperatures will be generally within a few degrees of normal with coastal areas forecast to be in the upper 50s to low 60s, warmer for the inland communities in the mid 70s to upper 80s with some areas seeing into the lower 90s.

Long-period southerly swell will continue to increase the risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents along the Pacific coast, particularly at south and southwest facing beaches. A Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect through Wednesday morning, see the BEACHES section for more details. Never turn your back to the ocean!

Long Term

..issued at 1200 AM PDT Tue Jun 30 2026 (Wednesday night through next Monday)

The aforementioned troughing will begin to flatten towards the end of the work week as ridging begins to develop in the south-central U.S., and zonal flow sets in. As the ridging builds into the weekend, high temperatures will rise across the area, but only to Minor HeatRisk levels. There is still a degree of uncertainty the center for the building high pressure and how strong the ridging will be. The Climate Prediction Center guidance shows an increased likelihood of above normal temperatures in the 8 to 14 day outlook.

Aviation

(18z TAFS) Issued at 1046 AM PDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Stratus will continue to erode to the coast through the afternoon today, with VFR conditions and clear skies at all but coastal sites. Expect breezy onshore winds this afternoon, decreasing this evening and becoming more variable overnight. Coastal stratus will redevelop tonight into Wednesday morning. Ceilings should primarily be MVFR, except local IFR along the coast. A slight uptick in inland extent is expected compared to this morning.

Vicinity of SFO, VFR conditions through the evening. Moderate confidence in MVFR stratus returning late tonight into Wednesday morning. Expect breezy west winds this afternoon and early evening with gusts to around 25 kt. West to southwest winds 5 to 10 kt overnight into Wednesday morning.

SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.

Vicinity of SJC and OAK, VFR conditions through the evening. High confidence in MVFR stratus returning late tonight into Wednesday morning for OAK. For SJC, VFR conditions are likely to prevail through Wednesday morning, but there is a low potential for MVFR ceilings to develop. Winds this afternoon and early evening will be breezy from the west to northwest with gusts to around 20 kt. Tonight, winds decreasing and becoming west to southwest at OAK, and southeast at SJC.

Monterey Bay Terminals, Stratus will erode to near the coast this afternoon. VFR conditions are expected at SNS until early evening, when MVFR stratus returns. At MRY, stratus should primarily be located over the peninsula and north of the terminal, resulting in VFR conditions. IFR stratus will return by early evening and persist overnight. Breezy afternoon winds, southwest at MRY and northwest at SNS, decreasing this evening.

Marine

(today through Sunday) Issued at 1046 AM PDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Strong northerly breezes will continue through Friday for the outer waters and the coastal jet region of Point Reyes. This will create hazardous conditions for small craft. Frequent gale force gusts are expected across the northern outer waters and along the Point Reyes coastal jet region through Wednesday, a bit weaker Thursday and Friday. Moderate northerly to westerly breezes will prevail elsewhere. Rough to very rough seas will continue through Wednesday before abating to become moderate to rough Thursday into Friday.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Ca, None. PZ, Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10- 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.

Visit this site often? Consider supporting us with a $10 contribution.
Learn more