, Issued at 109 AM PDT Sun Jul 19 2026 (Today and tonight)
Onshore winds are ushering stratus inland. Onshore winds continue due to a 2.9 mb SFO-SAC pressure gradient. A few patches of mist/fog may additionally develop through daybreak. High clouds are extending far north-northeast of tropical storm Elida located 1000 miles south- southwest of Point Conception. Elida is forecast to essentially move northward, get drawn into the westerlies and weaken to a post tropical remnant low by 5 am PDT Tuesday, July 21st per latest from the NHC.
Strong (warm core) high pressure remains located over the interior west, land locked as typically this time of year due to high Sun angle surface heating. The high is surrounded by a mix of cold core (mid-latitude) and warm core (tropical) low pressure systems of varying strength. Upward vertical motion/expansion (lows) has to return downward/compression (highs) somewhere via continuity. Upper level troughing generally remains located over the eastern Pacific. Daytime highs today will be about the same it was on Saturday, varying from the mid to upper 60s along the coast to the 70s bayside to the 80s and 90s well inland. Tonight lows will cool to the 50s except in the 60s in the hills and mountains.
..issued at 109 AM PDT Sun Jul 19 2026 (Monday through Saturday)
As mentioned, current tropical storm Elida is forecast to move generally northward, get drawn into the westerlies and weaken to a post tropical/remnant low by early Tuesday. Tropical cyclones depend on a minimum of 80F or warmer sea surface temperatures. With less heat flowing into northward moving tropical cyclones the thermodynamic system diminishes. Not to mention northward moving tropical cyclones eventually encounter the westerlies, wind shear, drier air (destructive to convection), but may temporarily form in to a hybrid system or become an extra-tropical cold core system tapping energy transformation from warm/cold air temperature advection. As of current time, the GFS and ECMWF for example forecast the remnant low to pass ~ 500 miles to our west early-mid week, rain is forecast to fall from the low, but of course it'll be too far to our west to benefit from it. Good news so far, based on the forecast low trajectory and most model forecasts, there is minimal convective potential over our forecast area early-mid week. Of course as always stay tuned to the latest updates.
(12z TAFS) Issued at 441 AM PDT Sun Jul 19 2026
Currently a mixed bag of LIFR-VFR. Conditions will begin to improve by 16Z as stratus retreats to the coast where it'll linger through the day. Coastal terminals, namely HAF and MRY, may hold onto a ceiling on the cusp of IFR/MVFR all day. High clouds streaming in from the southwest will add complexity to the TAF period both from a forecast and observation standpoint. High clouds and light winds overnight suggest that conditions will not be as poor as they have been overnight as radiational cooling will not be as efficient and stratus will not be as easily advected. Moderate to high confidence on ceilings on the cusp of IFR/MVFR returning to most terminals tonight with lower confidence on the return to LVK and SJC. Diurnal winds will prevail.
Vicinity of SFO, Currently IFR with westerly flow. High confidence on VFR by late morning with conditions beginning to improve by 16Z. Moderate confidence on the return of a ceiling on the cusp of IFR/MVFR tonight. Reasonable best case scenario is stratus remains confined to the north of the terminal.
SFO Bridge Approach, The San Mateo Bridge Approach has a relatively lower probability of developing low clouds below FL045 tonight than SFO does.
Monterey Bay Terminals, Currently LIFR with southwesterly flow at MRY and IFR with northwesterly flow at SNS. Stratus will clear out by late morning (SNS) to early afternoon (MRY) and remain close to the coast. High confidence in IFR ceilings returning tonight.
(today through Friday) Issued at 441 AM PDT Sun Jul 19 2026
Moderate northwesterly breezes and moderate seas will prevail. Moderate southerly swell will arrive today and continue next week from distant tropical cyclone activity.
Ca, None. PZ, None.
