Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Francisco CA

226 pm PDT Thu apr 30 2026

Short Term

, Issued at 223 PM PDT Thu Apr 30 2026 (This evening through Friday)

A fetch of weak offshore flow at 925MB has resulted in clear skies across our area this afternoon and confined stratus to the coast along the SF Peninsula. As diurnal winds ease this evening and decouple a relatively weak fetch of onshore flow will lead to stratus developing through the remainder of the night into Friday morning. Low stratus development and penetration inland to the North Bay, Bay Area and Salinas Valley should be similar to how last night and this morning unfolded, along with fog in the North Bay Valleys, with clearing by mid-morning. Friday afternoons high temperatures will be a degree or two warmer across interior locations of the North Bay and Bay Area, even warmer over the interior Central Coast as progressive upper level ridging shifts across the southern half of California over the course of the day.

Long Term

..issued at 223 PM PDT Thu Apr 30 2026 (Friday night through next Wednesday)

The marine layer will begin to gradually deepen by Friday night into the weekend as an area of low pressure offshore moves south along the coast from the Pacific Northwest to the Central Coast by Sunday. Chances of light rain and drizzle begin to increase along the coast Saturday night through Sunday morning. Any precipitation will be light and mostly confined to the coastal areas and coastal ranges with any measurable precip remaining under 0.10" of an inch, with most spots seeing a trace to a 0.03" at most. By late Sunday, the weak disturbance gets picked up by the southern jet and begins to move inland across the southern half of California. There is a slight chance of rain across the interior as it moves inland, but once again only a trace to a few hundredths, most likely for the higher elevations of the interior Central Coast. The clouds and cooler temperatures aloft will translate to a notable cool down Monday. Amplified ridging quickly moves in Tuesday, with a steady warming trend Tuesday through the remainder of the extended forecast.

Aviation

(18z TAFS) Issued at 1117 AM PDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Coastal locations are holding on to MVFR CIGs with VFR returning to the remainder of the region. Onshore winds will increase this afternoon and persist through about sunset before diminishing slightly. The marine layer is forecast to deepen overnight to around 1,500 ft allowing for a deeper inland penetration of stratus. Thus, IFR/MVFR conditions are most likely late this evening and into Friday morning. The greatest potential for LIFR conditions are in the North Bay, San Francisco Peninsula, and around the Monterey Bay Terminals late tonight and into Friday morning. Fairly high confidence in sub-MVFR with medium confidence in LIFR overnight. Onshore winds increase once again Friday afternoon with inland conditions returning to VFR between 17Z-20Z.

Vicinity of SFO, Westerly winds dominate this TAF period with breezy conditions expected Thursday afternoon into the evening. The winds should decrease over night and sky cover will begin to transition from VFR into MVFR around 03Z Friday. Moderate confidence that MVFR CIGs will persist around 09Z Friday and remain before mixing out by late morning Friday with the help of increased winds and daytime heating. There may be a few lower cloud decks in the mix around 14Z, but confidence is too low to claim as a prevailing condition.

SFO Bridge Approach, VFR conditions will prevail until the evening when MVFR CIGs begin to impact the Bay. Winds will have a NW to W component through the TAF period with the wind speed trend to match that of SFO's. MVFR CIGs are expected around 04Z though will be slightly higher at times than those found directly over SFO. The stratus deck should clear by late Friday morning.

Monterey Bay Terminals, MVFR at KMRY, while KSNS has returned to VFR. There is medium to high confidence for several hours of VFR conditions at both terminals before MVFR CIGs return early evening. CIGs lower to IFR (40%-80%) and potentially as low as LIFR (20%-40%) late tonight or early Friday morning and persist through much of the morning. CIGs are then forecast to gradually lift and scatter out between 16Z-18Z Friday.

Marine

(today through Tuesday) Issued at 1117 AM PDT Thu Apr 30 2026

A fresh to strong northwest breeze continues over the coastal waters into this weekend. Winds will be strongest over the northern outer waters where winds will result in moderate seas building to between 10 to 12 feet. Winds decrease and seas subside by late Saturday with conditions improving through the weekend.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Ca, Beach Hazards Statement from Saturday morning through Sunday evening for Caz506-505-509-529-530.

PZ, Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Friday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

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