Issued at 941 AM PDT Mon Aug 3 2026
Satellite imagery this morning and current windfield along the coast shows a semi-southerly surge. Low clouds continue to sneak farther north up the coast near Pt Reyes. We even see a few clouds up the Salinas Valley. Inland clouds will roll back to the coast by this afternoon, but clouds will linger along the coast. As noted below the bigger weather impact for today will be the Heat. No update with current Heat Advisories as they remain valid for interior N and E Bay. Finally, one other highlight this morning with the southerly surge is what's happening above the surge. over the higher terrain showed critically low humidity with several sites in the single digits. This is a solid example of nocturnal drying where humidity recovers early in the night then dry toward sunrise. Therefore, critical fire weather conditions exist.
No update need this morning, but will be monitoring the heat and fire weather conditions through the day.
MM
, Issued at 1155 PM PDT Sun Aug 2 2026 (Tonight through Tuesday)
Upper level ridging builds over the eastern Pacific and towards California while upper level troughing pushes across southern CA and the intermountain west. Tonight, weak offshore flow is set to develop over the Bay Area, which will lead to weak warming and drying and keep the marine layer shallow. Models show it to be around 500ft with any stratus development being confined to the Monterey Bay and perhaps into the northern Salinas Valley. An otter eddy is expected to form, which may pull it in and out of sites periodically, with clouds mixing out by mid morning. After that, sunny skies will prevail for much of the region leading to another hot day for interior locations. Highs will generally be in the 90s to near 105, with the hottest temperatures being found across the interior locations for the Bay Area and Central Coast. For those closer to the coast, San Francisco Bay, and Monterey Bay, the marine layer should help keep temperatures manageable though the gradient will be tight from the coast to just a few miles inland. Look for highs ranging from the low to mid 60s to to mid 80s. Widespread Moderate HeatRisk is expected across the interior North Bay Mountains, the interior East Bay Valleys, the East Bay Hills, the Santa Clara Valley, and the Santa Clara Hills. A Heat Advisory has been hoisted for these conditions, which will run from 10AM - 10PM Monday.
Here are some friendly reminders on how to beat the heat:
* Stay hydrated and drink plenty of fluids. * Wear lightweight, light-colored clothing. * Reduce time spent outdoors or stay in the shade. * Never leave people or pets unattended in vehicles. * Use sunscreen if going to the coast or the pool.
..issued at 1155 PM PDT Sun Aug 2 2026 (Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Upper level high pressure gradually builds into the region this week. Flow becomes a bit more onshore each day, with the marine layer trying to deepen to around 500-1000ft by Wednesday. This should allow temperatures to gradually step down for the next two- three days, with a warming trend returning for the late portion of the work week. Widespread Moderate HeatRisk returns, with perhaps a few patches of Major Heatrisk in the East and South Bay if the trends holds. For now, confidence is too low to issue any sort of heat products that far out but it will be something to watch over the next day or so.
(12z TAFS) Issued at 429 AM PDT Mon Aug 3 2026
VFR everywhere except the Monterey Bay region. Satellite shows a southerly surge of stratus taking place along the coast but confidence is low that it will reach interior Bay Area airports. IFR conditions are expected to continue at MRY and SNS through late this morning before VFR returns. There is mixed confidence for tonight's stratus forecast with models suggesting a more widespread return tonight. If the southerly surge holds together than more widespread stratus is likely, but, with the upper level ridge rebuilding and compressing the marine layer it seems unlikely that stratus would be widespread across the region. For the 12Z TAFs went more optimistic and kept stratus over only the Monterey Bay region for tonight.
Vicinity of SFO, VFR. Guidance shows some potential for patchy stratus this morning and again tonight but confidence is low. Breezy onshore winds return this afternoon/evening before winds decrease overnight.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals, IFR conditions continue through late this morning. Confidence is low to moderate on the timing of stratus return tonight. Models are indicating an earlier return is possible around 03/04Z. It has indicated that trend for the last few days but stratus has consistently not arrived until ~08/09Z. Opted to go with persistence for a later return of stratus but this may need to be adjusted depending how well the southerly surge of stratus holds up offshore. If the stratus bank is able to hold together offshore an earlier return of stratus becomes more likely across the Monterey Bay region.
(today through Saturday) Issued at 429 AM PDT Mon Aug 3 2026
Strong north to northwesterly winds will gradually decrease through this evening. Occasional gale force gusts remain possible across the far northern outer waters through late this morning. Rough to very rough seas (10-15 ft) will subside to moderate by Tuesday evening. Moderate seas (4-6 ft) continue midweek through the remainder of the work week.
Ca, Heat Advisory until 10 PM PDT this evening for CAZ504-510- 513>515.
PZ, Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.
