, Issued at 320 AM PST Wed Feb 18 2026 (Today and tonight)
Colder air on northwest winds continues to move in across the forecast area. Air temperatures have lowered to a mix of 30s and 40s, mildest at sea level nearest the beaches and bays. The snow level has lowered to approx 2000 to 2500 feet while mountain top temperatures have lowered to the lower 20s on Mt St Helena to the mid 20s at other mountain tops in the Bay Area and north Central Coast. Northwest wind moving across sea surface temperatures in the 50s is resulting in surface to mid level instability and scattered to numerous showers (snow at and above 2000-2500 feet). KMUX shows the showers/snow are mainly confined to the coastal North Bay southward to San Francisco and the San Francisco Bay Shoreline and areas southward across Monterey and San Benito counties. Across the North Bay where it is clearing, radiative cooling is resulting in lowering visibilities in patchy mist/fog.
Cold Weather Advisories/Extreme Cold Warnings (product details WWUS76 or NPWMTR) remain in effect through 9 am today. Winter Weather Advisories (product details WWUS46 or WSWMTR) remain in effect through 4 pm today.
There was at least one report of light snow falling in the Santa Cruz Mountains at ~ 2500 feet elevation late last evening. The cold air will remain through daybreak of course, but how much additional showers/snow showers moves through is the question. Current KMUX radar shows additional showers forming upstream to the northwest of the Santa Cruz Mtns, with recent model output showing maybe upwards of 0.10" liquid equivalent or potential for upwards of 1" more snow. With the morning commute soon beginning, Highway 17 summit at ~ 1900 feet may see snow flurries to snow showers with light accumulation possible. 1900 feet elevation is close to or may be temporarily above the melting layer through daybreak. Travelers over the summit should keep this in mind, icy road conditions may develop.
A quickly southeastward moving weak front will pass across the forecast area today. This will likely cause clouds to redevelop with additional showers /snow showers at higher elevations/ to form. We're stuck in the cold, highs today will be 10F to 15F below Feb normal temperatures.
Model forecasts have also been showing the next in line low pressure system development tonight and Thursday morning. This will bring rain /high elevation snow likely/ AND wind. With the low moving eastward across the forecast area, gusty winds will develop with potential for mix down to valleys and sea level. Nocturnal timing arrival of the low pressure and gusty winds will have to mix down through recently deposited cold air mass, i.e. it will have to mix down through a stabilizing atmosphere. It can do it if the dynamics with the low are strong enough to over-ride the stability. For now will hold off on wind advisory, since winds at the moment look to be close to but below advisory.
..issued at 320 AM PST Wed Feb 18 2026 (Thursday through Tuesday)
With all the cold air intrusion taking place, late Thursday into Friday morning set up is very favorable for well below normal to near record breaking low temperatures across the forecast area. We get a dry weather break, but it will be chilly to cold. Model forecasts show a break in the rain and clearing taking place, however this will allow temperatures to quickly lower under nocturnal radiative cooling. We'll be near record lows for Feb 20th at the long term sites, the records have been posted below for reference. As we get closer to this time-frame, we'll be looking at the need for additional Extreme Cold Warnings/Cold Weather Advisories. And there may be carryover of cold temperatures i.e. warnings and/or advisories needed for late Friday into Saturday morning. Then over the weekend and early next week, the 500 mb pattern favors the return of rain with a milder southwest flow which will have to scour out what remaining cold there'll be initially. Will be closely watching this pattern of course since it'll be tapping into a more water vapor rich environment to our southwest.
(12z TAFS) Issued at 423 AM PST Wed Feb 18 2026
Mainly VFR conditions are prevailing this morning, with the exception being KSTS. Clearing skies, light winds, and bountiful moisture has allowed for fog and low clouds to develop for portions of the interior North Bay valleys. Temperatures in this region are on the chillier end, sitting in the low 30s. Expect fog to mix out by mid morning, with VFR conditions expected. In terms of precipitation, showers will slip through the region from the north. There could be periods of brief ceiling and visibility reduction, in addition to small hail. Lightning has held off overnight, but we should destabilize some this afternoon. For now, left any mention of thunder out of the TAFs but this may need to be re-adjusted as we see how the atmosphere pans out.
Vicinity of SFO, Showers will slide through the region today, with VFR conditions generally prevailing. Winds will hold a westerly component through the afternoon hours before shifting to the southeast during the evening and overnight hours. Winds pick up after 6Z as the next organized round of rain moves through, with gusts gradually climbing to 30-35kt by 12Z-15Z Thursday. MVFR visibilities are expected with the next round of rain. No mention of thunder in the TAFs as the chances look to be around 10-15% chance this morning and into the early afternoon.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals, Showers will continue to skirt through the region this morning, eventually becoming more isolated in nature throughout the day. Winds will shift from the west to west-northwest to the southeast by the early evening, with winds picking up as well. VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period, unless stronger showers move through the region and drop visibility and/or ceilings.
(today through Monday) Issued at 423 AM PST Wed Feb 18 2026
Expect scattered showers and slight chances for to storms continue to move through the waters. Fresh to strong westerly winds continue across the waters with gale force winds in the southern waters lasting through the morning. Winds slacken and become fresh to moderate through early Thursday but quickly become strong again with gale force gusts returning. Rough to very rough seas will prevail through the week.
Ca, High Surf Advisory until 9 AM PST Friday for CAZ006-505-509-529- 530.
Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM PST this morning for CAZ504-506- 512-513-516.
Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for CAZ514- 517-518.
Extreme Cold Warning until 9 AM PST this morning for CAZ514-517- 518.
PZ, Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST this morning for Mry Bay.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Gale Warning until 9 AM PST this morning for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
