, Issued at 1206 PM PDT Sun Jun 14 2026 (This evening through Monday)
Visible satellite imagery shows that the majority of the marine stratus and fog has retreated back to the coast as of early this afternoon. SPC RAP analysis shows a weak shortwave trough encompassing most of CA centered over the Bay Area. The influence of this trough will allow for several degrees of cooling from yesterday across the interior locations. As a result, HeatRisk will also be decreasing, with more widespread Minor HeatRisk throughout the Bay Area and Central Coast, with some localized areas of Moderate HeatRisk reserved for the Central Valley and East/South Bay locations.
The aforementioned shortwave trough will quickly advect eastward overnight tonight with a ridge building in the Eastern Pacific. As the ridge builds and influences our region, temperatures will warm a few degrees tomorrow. But, HeatRisk will remain widespread Minor with localized areas of Moderate HeatRisk across the region on Monday. The marine layer is expected to be around 1500 feet again overnight tonight/tomorrow morning (similar to last night/this morning). Therefore the marine stratus and fog is expected to behave similar to that of last night/this morning.
High tide coastal flooding will continue to occur nightly along the low-lying areas of the Bayshore and the Pacific Coast through the middle of the week. Tide levels are forecast to rise up to 2.0 feet above normal into the middle of the week. This increase is driven by multiple contributing factors, including Sunday's new moon and lunar perigee, ~ 7 inches of tidal anomaly from storm surge and thermal expansion in the Eastern Pacific, and ~ 2 inches of sea level rise since vertical datums were established in the 1980s/1990s. While lower than the historic tidal flooding in January (which peaked at 2.6 ft), these tides could end up being the highest observed in the summer, beating the current record of 1.7 ft from July 2022.
..issued at 1206 PM PDT Sun Jun 14 2026 (Tuesday through Saturday)
The Eastern Pacific ridge will strengthen slightly, maxing out on Tuesday. This will allow for temperatures to warm another degree or two on Tuesday, but HeatRisk will remain largely unchanged (with widespread Minor to locally Moderate HeatRisk). Another pattern change is anticipated as we head into the latter half of the week as the ridge breaks down and a closed low forms off the coast of northern California. This low is expected to become an open wave by the end of the workweek, with the base of the trough moving through our area this weekend. The low pressure system will bring cooler temperatures to the region. As a result, HeatRisk will become widespread Minor with localized areas of little to no risk as early as Thursday. The ordinary marine stratus is expected to continue to blanket the usual spots through the majority of the week.
(00z TAFS) Issued at 414 PM PDT Sun Jun 14 2026
MVFR-IFR stratus has retreated to the immediate coastal regions and will remain there through the day, with breezy onshore winds through the evening. Overnight, the stratus layer should return to most of the terminals with moderate to high confidence that the interior East Bay remaining VFR through the night. Stratus will retreat to the immediate coastal region on Monday morning with breezy onshore winds resuming in the afternoon.
Vicinity of SFO, VFR through the evening hours, with breezy west- northwest winds through the evening. IFR stratus will move in through the evening into the overnight hours. There is moderate confidence on stratus impact timing as models differ on how that stratus will expand over the terminal, with most models expecting stratus to wrap around the East and South Bay before filling in over SFO. May need to monitor observations through the night. Any stratus that forms will dissipate through Monday morning as breezy west- northwest winds resume in the afternoon with gusts to 15 kt.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.
Vicinity of OAK and SJC, VFR conditions and breezy northwest winds to around 15 kt continue through the evening hours. IFR stratus will move into OAK this evening, then move south towards SJC over the next several hours. Stratus will dissipate through the course of Monday morning, with breezy northwest winds resuming in the afternoon
Monterey Bay Terminals, Monitoring a finger of stratus lying just to the north of SNS for potential early stratus impacts to the terminal. Otherwise, VFR conditions continue through the next few hours. Gentle onshore winds prevail at MRY through the evening while stronger northwest flow persists at SNS. IFR stratus will return early tonight as winds turn light, clearing through Monday morning with the gentle to breezy northwest winds resuming in the afternoon hours.
(tonight through next Friday) Issued at 414 PM PDT Sun Jun 14 2026
Southerly breezes and moderate seas continue with a low south- southwesterly swell across most of the coastal waters. Winds will remain fairly consistent to Monday as the seas subside. Fresh to strong north winds will develop in the northern outer waters towards the beginning to middle of the week.
Issued at 1230 PM PDT Sat Jun 13 2026
Long period southerly swell will continue through the weekend, especially for south and southwest facing beaches. Hazardous beach conditions are advertised, specifically for moderate to steeply sloped beaches along the Pacific Coast of the North Bay, San Mateo, Santa Cruz counties. A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect for Pacific coast beaches along the central coast and the Bay Area coast from late tonight through late Tuesday night. Be sure check beach conditions before you head out. Sneaker waves will run up the beach much farther than other waves, potentially catching beachgoers by surprise and resulting in people being swept into the water. Rip currents are strong enough to pull the strongest swimmers away from shore. Swim near a lifeguard if possible. Stay back from the beach, and away from jetties, piers, beachside rocks, and other infrastructure near the water. Never turn your back to the ocean!
Ca, Beach Hazards Statement through late Wednesday night for CAZ006- 505-509-529-530.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM PDT Thursday for CAZ006-506- 508.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM PDT Wednesday for CAZ505-509- 529-530.
PZ, None.
