, Issued at 132 PM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026 (This evening through Friday night)
Another warm and sunny day across our area with offshore flow providing above normal temperatures and abundant sunshine. With an upper level ridge over NorCal and upper level low over SoCal, we're seeing a common setup for a relatively weak Diablo wind event through the North Bay interior mountains, which has resulted in a Red Flag Warning issued for 10p tonight through 11am Friday for that area. The highest peaks around Mt St Helena have already seen gusts between 50-60 mph and we expect that to continue until winds at lower altitude begin to increase later tonight through late morning Friday. It hasn't rained in that part of the North Bay since September 4th, so conditions and fuels are very dry (see the Long Term discussion below for how that may change next week). Elevated fire weather concerns extend beyond the Red Flag Warning so we continue to message to abstain from any activities that could ignite a wildfire. The offshore flow continues to work against marine layer development with some of our coastal locations like Half Moon Bay and Monterey already in the low 80s and representing some of our highest temperatures of the day so far.
The offshore flow will continue tonight providing clear skies area wide. Thermal belting above 1000ft over much of our area will result in poor RH recovery and overnight lows well above normal, providing little relief from the heat until at Saturday night.
..issued at 132 PM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026 (Saturday through next Wednesday)
We expect the Red Flag warming over the North Bay interior mountains to expire at 11am Friday with easing winds as the mitigating factor, temperatures will remain warm with very dry conditions and fuels persisting through Saturday until a notable pattern change sets in on Sunday.
An upper level trough to our north will approach the coast over the weekend bringing a return of onshore flow, a subsequent cold front and notably cooler temperature and multiple days through the middle of next week with scattered light rain chances. We're not expecting any one location to see more than a 0.25", and most locations that see some rain will get less than a 0.10" but confidence is increasing that most of our area will see at least a little bit of rainfall, with exact timing still too far out to speak of with any confidence.
(18z TAFS) Issued at 1047 AM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026
High confidence for VFR conditions to prevail through the TAF period regionwide as high pressure builds in over the region. Light/variable to offshore winds prevail early this morning but are likely to return onshore by early-to-mid afternoon. However, onshore wind speeds will be weaker than previous days.
Vicinity of SFO, VFR at the terminal through the TAF period. Light/variable winds persist early this morning and are forecast to become weak offshore and persist through about 22Z when they turn more onshore. Winds ease overnight and become weak offshore again Friday morning. Onshore winds are again forecast by Friday afternoon.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals, VFR through the TAF period. Typical drainage winds (southeasterly) prevail at SNS with onshore winds expected to return regionwide early afternoon. Winds ease after sunset and become light/variable overnight into Friday morning.
(today through Tuesday) Issued at 1047 AM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026
Moderate seas prevail across the outer waters, while the inner waters experience slight to moderate seas through Friday night. During this time frame, gentle to fresh northerly breezes continue. Moderate to fresh northerly winds return for the weekend, which will be accompanied with rough seas.
Ca, Red Flag Warning from 10 PM this evening to 11 AM PDT Friday for CAZ504.
PZ, None.
