Issued at 945 AM PST Mon Nov 2 2026
Below normal temperatures continue today with highs peaking in the mid to upper 60s. Rain remains on track to return tonight with the highest totals (0.50-0.70") across the North Bay coastal mountains. Showers pick up overnight and continue into Tuesday morning so expect wet roads along the coast and across the North Bay during the morning commute. There is a low potential for thunderstorms as the main rain band moves onshore tomorrow morning for the coastal North Bay.
, Issued at 1229 AM PST Mon Nov 2 2026 (Today and tonight)
The system that brought precip over the weekend is now carving its way through the Four Corners region. In its wake upper level ridging is currently building over the CA. As such, expect warmer and drier conditions to kick off the work week. Speaking of the weekend rain, residual low level moisture may lead to some patchy fog, but widespread fog impacts are looking less likely this morning. High clouds associated with the next rain maker are spilling over the ridge, which is limiting radiational cooling potential. Temperatures this afternoon will be a few degrees warmer than Sunday and in the 60s to lower 70s.
The dry weather will be short-lived as the next rain maker will make is presence known after midnight tonight. The ridge weakens and moves eastward. Behind the ridge is another upper level low. This feature will bring precip back to the region. Rain chances initially develop over the North Bay late tonight.
..issued at 1229 AM PST Mon Nov 2 2026 (Tuesday through Sunday)
Will likely be a wet commute Tuesday morning as the associated surface low begins to move closer to the coast. Precip chances will spread S and E through the day, but loose some steam over the interior Central Coast. In addition to precip, instability increase over the northern coastal waters during the afternoon. Thunderstorms have been added to the forecast. Will leave them out of the forecast over land at this time, but some hi-res models suggest instability does briefly drift into Sonoma county during the afternoon. Thunder may need to be added on the next forecast update. Precip chances linger into early Tuesday before drier weather returns by Wednesday. Rainfall amounts will be greatest over the North Bay 0.10-0.50", Bay Area 0.01-0.25", Central Coast little to no accum.
Wednesday kicks off a warming and drying trend that will last into next weekend with quasi-zonal flow transitioning to ridging aloft. Temperature rebound will be impressive too as highs reach the 70s to lower 80s next weekend.
Looking out into fantasy land the Pacific stays active with additional rain chance on the horizon. Next rain chance return around Nov 10-11.
(18z TAFS) Issued at 1023 AM PST Mon Nov 2 2026
VFR conditions prevail as high clouds blanket the majority of the region this morning. These conditions will continue through the rest of today, with a pattern change occuring by Tuesday morning. An upper level low will cut across northern California brining rain to the Bay Area and perhaps into the northern area Central Coast region. The best chances look to be over North Bay and around SF Bay, with chances decreasing as you go inland. Started bringing -RA into the North Bay around 15Z, though some models show a 20% chance of it starting around 12Z for KSTS and areas north and west of there. Rain chances continue to spread to the southeast through the morning with showers being possible for the afternoon. We continue to keep an eye out at the thunderstorm chance. Probabilities over Sonoma County range from 0-20% favoring the west side of the region. Opted to not add any thunder to KSTS for the time being, but if thunder were to happen the best time frame would be from 18Z-22Z based on the latest guidance. Expect MVFR cigs with rain, though lower cig and vis are possible with stronger bands or cells of rain.
Vicinity of SFO, High clouds, VFR conditions, and drainage winds are on tap for today. This evening winds back and gradually take on a southerly component ahead of the next weather system. Rain chances move in mid to late morning, with showers lingering into the afternoon. Winds begin to pick up as the rain arrives, with 10-15kt winds expected for Tuesday afternoon.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals, Mainly VFR conditions should prevail today with southeasterly flow at MRY and southwesterly winds at SNS. Moderate to high confidence of lower clouds overnight at MRY. High confidence of diurnal wind patterns through the TAF period. There is low confidence for rain early tomorrow morning, but it can't be ruled out completely.
(today through Saturday) Issued at 945 AM PST Mon Nov 2 2026
Rough seas will build into the outer waters tonight through Wednesday morning, bringing hazardous conditions for small craft. Gentle to moderate northwesterly breezes will increase and back tonight to become moderate to fresh southwesterly breezes ahead of an approaching cold front. Rain moves in Tuesday with this system, bringing with it a 15-20% chance of thunderstorms north of Pigeon Point. Moderate to fresh northerly breezes and moderate to rough seas will prevail Wednesday through Friday.
Issued at 1229 AM PST Mon Nov 2 2026
Hazardous beach conditions will be present at Pacific Coast beaches Monday and Tuesday as long period (15-19 second) northwesterly swell will bring an increased risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents. Waves can sweep across the shoreline without warning, pulling people into the sea from beaches, jetties, and rocks. Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf and never turn your back on the ocean!
Sarment
Ca, Beach Hazards Statement through Tuesday evening for CAZ006-505- 509-529-530.
PZ, Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Tuesday to 9 AM PST Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Tuesday to 9 AM PST Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.
