, Issued at 103 PM PDT Sat Aug 22 2026 (This evening through Sunday night)
The Bay Area and Central Coast continue to be on the border of upper level troughing across Northern California/the Pacific Northwest. Practically, no major changes to the overall forecast. Ridging influence is more pronounced today with the marine layer compressed to around 1000 feet and less extensive morning stratus coverage. Stratus cover has dissipated everywhere except the San Francisco/San Mateo coastline with clear skies across the rest of the region. This will help temperatures to warm slightly compared to yesterday with interior highs in the upper 70s to 80s. Conditions will be warm above the marine layer/in the higher terrain where highs will peak in the upper 80s to low 90s. Cooler conditions prevail along the coast and SF Bay shoreline with highs in the 60s to low 70s. The Interior Central Coast remains toasty with highs in the upper 90s to low 100s expected across far interior Monterey County.
Ridging effects remain pronounced heading into Sunday with the marine layer remaining compressed to around 1000 feet. This will bring a return of patchy stratus along the coast and SF Bay shoreline. Given the compressed nature of the marine layer, stratus should scatter out early again, likely by 10/11AM. Sunday's high temperatures will be comparable to Saturday's with highs in the 80s to low 90s across the interior, 60s to 70s along the coast and SF Bay shoreline, and in the 90s to low 100s across the interior Central Coast. Breezy conditions expected Saturday and Sunday over the marine environment, along the coast, and across favored mountain gaps/passes.
..issued at 103 PM PDT Sat Aug 22 2026 (Monday through next Friday)
The long term forecast is a rinse and repeat of the short term with upper level ridging and troughing fighting over our area. Troughing becomes more influential Monday and Tuesday with the marine layer deepening to around 1000-1500 ft. This should bring more substantial early morning stratus to the region and will see temperatures cool by about 5-6 degrees (low 80s to low 90s across the interior) while coastal temperatures stay relatively stable. Mid to late week, ridging again becomes more dominant with temperatures warming slightly and the marine layer/stratus coverage compressing. This will keep temperatures near to slightly above normal above the marine layer and near to slightly below normal within it through the extended forecast. Diurnally breezy winds continue each afternoon/evening along the coast, higher elevations, and across mountain gaps/passes. Looking farther out, the GFS and ECMWF continue to show a number of tropical systems developing across the Eastern Pacific. We will be keeping an eye on these systems as they develop to see how they interact with the upper level ridge and if any tropical moisture will extend towards the West Coast.
(18z TAFS) Issued at 1212 PM PDT Sat Aug 22 2026
VFR through the afternoon with diurnally influenced and moderate onshore flow. The OAK sounding from this morning measured the marine layer at a depth of 1500 feet which is consistent with the past couple of nights. However, due to dry air entrainment, stratus has been patchy through the morning and will continue to remain so through the TAF period. That being said, as the upper level low moves northeastward, high pressure continues to creep in which will slightly compress the marine layer. The combination of dry air entrainment and slight compression will limit stratus expansion into the interior East and South Bay valley terminals. At sites where stratus develops, ceilings are expected to remain IFR to MVFR. Low to medium confidence on the exact arrival of stratus, though generally expect a later onset. North Bay terminals may experience a weak, short-lived offshore flow overnight which will further delay IFR stratus development and shorten its duration. As a result, low confidence on whether the marine layer will reach APC.
Vicinity of SFO, VFR conditions with moderate westerlies are forecast through the day. The increased pressure gradient will result in gusty onshore flow through the afternoon and winds ease around sunset. The marine layer is expected to be deep enough to reach SFO overnight, but it is a matter of when. Medium confidence on the exact timing as ceilings may develop a few hours earlier than forecast (09-12Z Sunday). Stratus should have a similar clearing time of 17-18Z Sunday.
SFO Bridge Approach, Stratus may be more patchy in nature early morning Sunday. Otherwise, similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals, Clear skies with a few high clouds prevail through the afternoon with onshore winds around 10 to 15 kt. The offshore stratus feed continues to look messy, therefore a later stratus arrival is forecast this TAF period with medium confidence. IFR ceilings will impact both terminals overnight and persist through the middle of Sunday morning.
(tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 1212 PM PDT Sat Aug 22 2026
Northwest winds increase to a fresh to strong breeze with slight to moderate seas. Near gale force gusts are possible across the coastal waters, particularly near Point Sur and Point Reyes. Hazardous conditions for small crafts persist today for the bay and coastal waters. Conditions are expected to improve by Sunday night into early next week.
Ca, None. PZ, Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
