, Issued at 144 PM PDT Mon Aug 10 2026 (This evening through Tuesday night)
Afternoon visible satellite imagery shows ample sunshine across the interior, but the persistent marine layer continues to hug the coast. Pretty interesting to see all of the small eddies forming in the coastal stratus this afternoon as well. Satellite imagery also shows heat and smoke associated with the Timber Incident along the Big Sur coast. Monterey Airport was reporting haze at various times through the day due to some drift smoke. Overall transport flow is not overly strong through Tuesday so smoke/haze will be possible around the Monterey Bay / Big Sur region.
Interesting longwave pattern across CA tonight through Tuesday. The large ridge that brought oppressive heat to CA over the weekend has been split in half by a deepening upper level trough. One upper ridge is near the Four Corners and the other is well offshore. Sandwiched in the middle is a small shortwave trough inching its way toward the CA coast. Over the next 24 hours the trough will deepen further cooling the airmass and deepening the marine layer. The cooling trend noticed across the forecast area today will continue on Tuesday. Additionally, as the trough deepens a few spokes of moisture and instability will traverse the Central Coast. For now, not enough to warrant any mention of precip, but a few high level Cu are possible. Speaking of precip, the moisture in the marine layer will be high enough for coastal drizzle.
..issued at 240 PM PDT Mon Aug 10 2026 (Wednesday through next Sunday)
For Wednesday an upstream feature gets enhanced by a jet max west of Pt Conception. This feature has peaked our interest as it will lead to a low confidence high impact scenario. Latest model guidance shows there is enough moisture and instability to at least warrant a mention of showers and thunderstorms. Pt forecast soundings shows decent instability, dry low levels, but some CIN leading to the lower confidence. Pattern recognition also brings some pause as previous fires in 1999 and 2008 had upper level disturbances off the Central Coastal. This setup is close, but not exactly like previous lightning busts. As such, decided to not issue any Fire Weather Headline, but add 15% chc of showers/thunderstorms to Monterey/San Benito Wednesday afternoon and evening. Outside of the convective threat, sensible weather trends continues. Cooler weather for Wednesday and Thursday. Night and morning clouds clearing to the coast each afternoon. Coastal drizzle has been added to the forecast.
Over the weekend a subtle warming trend develops as a low deepens near the Gulf of AK and drops south. The southward trajectory well offshore of the West Coast will also the inland Four Corners ridge to ease westward.
(18z TAFS) Issued at 1033 AM PDT Mon Aug 10 2026
Lingering IFR-LIFR stratus is dissipating across the North Bay valleys, the San Francisco Bay, and the northern Salinas Valley, and the mixing out is expected to continue through the morning as the stratus deck pares back to the immediate coastal region. Moderate onshore pattern winds will develop during the afternoon and evening hours with gusts of 15 to 25 kt. Stratus will return inland during the evening and overnight hours. Moderate confidence in the high resolution model output that keeps most of the SF Bay clear through the night.
Vicinity of SFO, VFR through the evening hours. Light offshore flow will turn to the west-northwest with gusts of 25 kt during the afternoon and evening hours. High resolution model output keeps the terminal area clear through the night as southwest winds develop aloft, there is moderate confidence in the forecast at this time. Tuesday afternoon, expect breezy and gusty winds to resume with a southwest component, leading to lower confidence on wind direction this far out.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals, VFR at SNS through the daytime, MRY will clear out within the next couple of hours. Gentle onshore winds will develop in the afternoon and evening. IFR-LIFR stratus returns rather early in the evening, with some high resolution model output seeing stratus returning to MRY as early as 01-02Z. Clearing is expected to be delayed to near or slightly after the end of the TAF period.
(today through Saturday) Issued at 1033 AM PDT Mon Aug 10 2026
Fresh to strong northwest winds persist through Thursday with rough seas up to 12 feet over the northern outer waters and occasionally the inner waters north of Point Reyes. The San Pablo, Suisun Bays and the Delta will continue to see gusty onshore winds through the early evening hours. Long period southerly swells around 15 seconds will continue through much of the work week.
Ca, Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM PDT Thursday for CAZ006-506- 508-529-530.
PZ, Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
