, Issued at 150 AM PST Sat Feb 21 2026 (Today and tonight)
Surface high pressure across the Intermountain West will dominate our weather today. Clear skies and light winds are allowing for efficient radiational cooling on top of an already cold air mass. The 00z sounding observed an 850 millibar temperature of -1.35 degrees Celsius which is below the tenth percentile (-0.5 degrees Celsius) for the date and time. Sensible weather wise this means it will be another cold to very cold start to the day with temperatures topping out below normal this afternoon. The combination of the aforementioned high pressure and a developing storm force low pressure system off the Pacific Northwest Coast will tighten the pressure gradient and yield strong southerly winds. Gusts up to 40 mph are expected along the Pacific Coast and in the higher terrain. The proximity to the aforementioned low will allow for pre-frontal rain showers beginning this afternoon, primarily for the North Bay. Rates will be light with no adverse impacts expected. South of the Golden Gate Bridge can expect an increase in cloud cover and maybe some drizzle. Sunday will be very similar with the most notable difference being temperatures rebounding to near normal.
..issued at 150 AM PST Sat Feb 21 2026 (Sunday through Friday)
ECMWF and GEFS ensembles are in agreement of heights rising through the first half of Monday with upper-level ridging across the Intermountain West and upper-level troughing off the Pacific Northwest Coast. The ridge will get tamped down on Tuesday; however, there is great agreement that the region will remain under the influence of the ridge and its positive height anomalies. A surface low pressure system off the Pacific Northwest Coast will pull moisture in from the tropics Monday into Tuesday. ECMWF and GEFS IVT ensemble mean peaks near 500 kg/ms and weakens the system as it sinks south. Southwesterly flow (from the tropics) will allow for efficient rainfall due to the fetch of moist, warm air. As a result, southwest facing terrain will have the highest accumulation with the help of orographic lift with the lee side valleys experiencing the rain shadow effect. Confidence is high that the North Bay will see the highest rainfall totals. The trend continues to be our friend as it shifts northward, subsequently lowering rainfall totals and delaying the onset as it does so. As the forecast looks right now, the Monday night into Tuesday system will bring widespread rainfall. Minor flooding of low-lying, poor drainage, and urban areas will be possible with ponding and slick roadways likely. Mainstem river flooding is not expected with a low probability (less than 5%) of occurrence. If rain rates do end up being high enough with this system, shallow landslides will be possible. A warming and drying trend kicks off Wednesday after the cold frontal passage with temperatures climbing to 10 degrees above normal by Friday.
(18z TAFS) Issued at 940 AM PST Sat Feb 21 2026
Currently expecting VFR conditions to prevail through the TAF period. Southerly winds will increase late this morning and into the afternoon, strongest near the coast and typically windy spots across the region with gusts up to 20-25 kt. Winds then ease late in the evening and into Sunday morning. Have VCSH toward the end of the TAF period across the North Bay and Bay Area Terminals as a system brushes the region, yet remains well to the north. There is a low to moderate confidence for MVFR ceilings across the North Bay and the Monterey Bay Terminals early Sunday morning. There is also low confidence for LLWS tomorrow morning, yet not high enough confidence to include in the TAFs at this time.
Vicinity of SFO, VFR. Mid-to-high level clouds will continue to stream across the region through much of the TAF period. Southerly winds will increase by late morning or early afternoon with gusts up to 25 kt. Winds then ease late this evening and into Sunday morning. VCSH remains in the forecast as light rain showers are forecast by around 16Z Sunday and continue through early Sunday afternoon.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals, VFR. Mid-to-high level clouds will stream in from the north later today and linger through the rest of the TAF period. Southerly winds will increase a bit this afternoon and evening before easing late this evening, especially at KMRY while southerly flow will remain moderate at KSNS. There is low confidence for MVFR ceilings at both terminals early Sunday morning, yet have SCT025 to account for the uncertainty.
(today through Thursday) Issued at 940 AM PST Sat Feb 21 2026
Expect fresh to moderate southerly breezes this morning with gale force gusts developing by the afternoon, especially across the northern waters. Rough to very rough seas persist starting tonight into the beginning of next week. Rain chances increase across northern waters tonight, becoming more widespread across the northern waters by Saturday night, then spread farther south by Monday. Winds and seas begin to ease by the middle of next week.
Ca, None. PZ, Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PST Sunday for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PST this evening for Mry Bay.
Gale Warning until 3 AM PST Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST this afternoon for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PST Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
