, Issued at 1202 AM PST Sun Jan 4 2026 (Today and tonight)
The unsettled weather continues as another cold front approaches the coast over the next 12 hours. Scattered showers are becoming more organized and numerous through the morning. There have been a few lightning strikes over the coastal waters in the last 30 minutes, and the environment looks able to support this convection over the Bay Area through the early morning. The heavier band of rain will gradually slide south over the next few hours, focusing impacts on San Mateo and Santa Cruz through midday. Heavier showers will likely lead to nuisance flooding and possible landslides. If the thunderstorms make it to land, it's unlikely they will produce severe wind gusts or tornadoes. There is still several hundred J/kg of CAPE, but the low level shear has decreased below 10 kts, too weak to support tornadogenesis. Garden variety thunderstorms still bring hazards, namely lighting strikes, heavy downpours and small hail. Shower activity will gradually decrease through the evening before the next round on Monday.
..issued at 1202 AM PST Sun Jan 4 2026 (Monday through Saturday)
High resolution models are showing a brief break in the rain between Sunday evening and early Monday morning as a dry slot moves through after frontal passage. The moisture will quickly recharge as a low pressure system moves near the coast. This system will flip the dry post-frontal NW winds to moist SW'rly flow. Monday will be another wet one. Everyone should pick up another 1-2" from now until Tuesday morning. At that point the low will weaken in place. There's a lot of uncertainty regarding Tuesday. Since the low isn't really moving, it's hard to pin down exactly what will happen to the associated moisture. Our official QPF forecast dries out starting Tuesday, but there's still a decent probability of precipitation through even Wednesday. By Thursday high pressure will confidently move in, shutting down rain chances and clearing up the weather for the weekend. Low temperatures will respond to the clearing skies thanks to enhanced radiational cooling at night. Many inland areas will be dropping back into the 30s starting Thursday morning and we should see some frost Friday. As a high amplitude ridge builds, the dry weather looks to settle in place, with no significant chance of rain through the end of next week.
(12z TAFS) Issued at 341 AM PST Sun Jan 4 2026
KMUX radar shows a band of rain over the Bay Area and the north Central Coast. Conditions are a mix of VFR and MVFR-IFR the latter due to visibilities and ceilings lowered in the rain. Low pressure developing to the southwest will move northeastward today with rain changing over to showers by late afternoon and evening. An isolated thunderstorm or two is a possibility today due to instability. Any clearing tonight and early Monday coupled to light winds may result in patchy fog /VLIFR-IFR/.
Vicinity of SFO, MVFR today in rain, rain changing over to showers late today and tonight. Southerly wind 10 to 20 knots with a few higher gusts into the 20 knots range possible.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals, VFR-MVFR today in rain, rain changing to showers late today and tonight. Southeasterly winds 5 to 15 knots.
(today through Friday) Issued at 332 AM PST Sun Jan 4 2026
A low pressure system will result in rain and a slight chance of thunderstorms today. Showers continue tonight and Monday. Breezy to gusty winds linger today across the waters, with hazardous swells for smaller craft at 12 to 16 feet that abate early in the week. Winds and seas build again during the late week.
Issued at 117 PM PST Sat Jan 3 2026
A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for the San Francisco Bay, San Pablo Bay, Pacific Coast, and Monterey Bay through 2 PM Sunday due to Perigean spring tides (king tides) and up to 1 foot of storm surge. The combination of these factors will bring minor to moderate coastal flooding to the low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways during high tide late Sunday morning.
High tide is expected to be 1.9 ft above normal at 11:18 AM Sunday. These predictions include up to 1 foot of storm surge that will enhance the astronomical tide and flooding threat. High tide varies up to 90 minutes earlier or later along the Pacific Coast and through the San Francisco Bay, respectively.
A Beach Hazard Statement is in effect Sunday through 10 PM. Large swell will impact the Pacific beaches, generating large breaking waves up to 20 feet, strong rip currents, and sneaker waves. Inexperienced swimmers should avoid the water. Nobody should climb the coastal rocks. Never turn your back on the ocean.
Ca, Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM PST Monday for CAZ006-506-508.
Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for CAZ006-505-509- 529-530.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM PST this afternoon for CAZ505- 509-529-530.
PZ, Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST this morning for Mry Bay.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 3 PM PST Monday for Mry Bay- Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST Monday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Gale Warning from 9 AM to 3 PM PST Monday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
