, Issued at 1152 PM PDT Fri Oct 9 2026 (Tonight through Sunday)
Much cooler air quickly flowed inland Friday with about equally weighted northerly ACV-SFO and onshore SFO-SAC pressure gradients supporting northwest winds. Current 24 hour temperature trends remain sharply lower by up to double digits Fahrenheit across higher elevations and inland. Surface temperatures across the highly varied terrain in our forecast area show only a few places left at highest elevation that are still relatively mild from the mid 60s to lower 70s. Due to a pattern shift with upper level troughing forecast to dominate our weather through the weekend, the lower level temperature inversion is already steadily weakening and lifting. The marine layer depth continues to increase, currently between ~ 1700 and 2500 feet. Cooling applied to the marine layer with upsloping winds will produce light patchy drizzle from San Francisco southward to the Big Sur coastline, including the East Bay hills tonight and Saturday morning.
Cold air advection continues through Saturday greatly weakening the lower level temperature inversion that's capping the marine stratus. Expect plentiful vertical mixing with drier air and daytime surface heating to mix out the stratus by early afternoon.
Highs and lows Saturday and Sunday will be below to much below normal for the time of year. Highs in the 60s/70s, warmest inland. Lows in the 40s/30s, coldest far inland valleys, except near 50 along the immediate coastline and bays.
..issued at 1152 PM PDT Fri Oct 9 2026 (Sunday night through next Friday)
500 mb troughing will prevail with mainly drier air flowing southward across our forecast area early to mid next week. There may be a little light measurable shower activity in the southernmost forecast area later Sunday and Monday. However, recent NBM has trended drier to less than 0.10" liquid precipitation. 500 mb ridging will advance eastward over our forecast area mid to late next week, bringing a return to warmer daytime temperatures.
(18z TAFS) Issued at 1034 AM PDT Sat Oct 10 2026
A cold front is currently sweeping through the region helping to scour out the cloud deck across Bay Area terminals this morning. The fropa will usher in stronger winds as well. Expect a well mixed BL this afternoon with stronger onshore flow. For tonight, a little bit of strato-cu may develop over the hills and Monterey Bay region. Will keep most terminals VFR, but have MVFR CIGs for MRY and SNS with a 40-50% conf.
Vicinity of SFO, Improving CIGs through 18Z. Gusty onshore this afternoon with gusts 25-30 kts.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals, Pre-frontal stratus lingering through 19Z then mixing out as the front moves closer and eventually through. Post frontal clouds late tonight and early tomorrow 1500-2000 feet.
(today through Thursday) Issued at 1034 AM PDT Sat Oct 10 2026
A passing cold front will continue to produce dangerous conditions over the coastal waters this weekend. Fresh breezes to Gale force northwest winds will occur. Expect frequent gale force gusts in exposed waters along with rough to very rough seas building in response to the strong winds. On top of the hazardous winds and rough wind waves, two sets of swell haver arrived, from both the south and west. The significant wave height will reach 16 feet in the northern outer waters.
Issued at 1055 AM PDT Sat Oct 10 2026
Heading to the beach this weekend? The Sun will be out, but beaches conditions will be less than ideal. A cold front will bring gusty winds over the coastal waters and nearby beaches. More importantly, the surf zone will remain very energetic. Long period southerly swell from distant Tropical Storm Rachel will build in height through the weekend, bringing an increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents. Long period westerly swell from a gale force low in the Central North Pacific will arrive Sunday, bringing breaking waves 13-16 feet. The large tidal swings will also result in coastal erosion as water and waves are brought farther up the beach than normal, especially during high tide. Remain off jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure as waves can sweep across the shoreline without warning, pulling people into the sea. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf and strong rip currents and never turn your back on the ocean!
MM
Ca, Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for CAZ006-505- 509-529-530.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM PDT Tuesday for CAZ006-508-529- 530.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM PDT Wednesday for CAZ506.
PZ, Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Sunday for Mry Bay-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Gale Warning until 9 AM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10- 60 NM.
