, Issued at 110 PM PDT Fri Oct 9 2026 (This evening through Saturday night)
As of 1 PM PDT, temperatures are running between 10-25 degrees cooler than this time yesterday with up to 30 degrees cooler in isolated locations. Needless to say, the cool down has arrived. Early morning stratus was slow to retreat to the coast, but with mostly sunny skies across the interior we are expected this afternoon to still be warm.
An upper level cut-off low pressure is approximately 400 miles southwest of the Monterey Bay. This has allowed for a deepening marine layer that is forecast to deepen further tonight and into Saturday morning to around 2000 feet. As such, have added coastal drizzle into the forecast south of the Golden Gate where there is about a 20-60% probability (based off of the HREF) of seeing greater than 0.01" of precipitation from 8 PM this evening through 8 AM Saturday. This is a typical pattern for which we see widespread coastal drizzle!
By late tonight and into Saturday morning, a mostly dry frontal passage (minus the drizzle) is forecast to move from north the south across the Bay Area and Central Coast. This will bring temperatures down to below seasonal averages Saturday, generally 5 to 15 degrees cooler. In wake of the frontal passage, winds will increase out of the northwest with afternoon and evening gusts between 35-45 mph in the favored gaps, passes, and wind-prone areas. Winds over the ocean will be even stronger with gale-force gusts likely!
..issued at 110 PM PDT Fri Oct 9 2026 (Sunday through next Thursday)
Winds ease a bit on Sunday with an even colder air mass settling into the region from the north. Temperatures will struggle to warm into the 60s to lower 70s across much of the region. By Sunday night into Monday, there is a chance for rain showers over the north Central Coast as mid/upper level remnant moisture from Tropical Storm Rachel and an upper level cut-off low move across the region. Across the Bay Area and North Bay, there is a less than 10-15% chance of precipitation. This could change depending on the track of the cut- off low and remnant moisture.
Cooler conditions persist into midweek before a gradual warming trend takes palace towards the latter half of the week as ridging builds in from the eastern Pacific.
(18z TAFS) Issued at 1036 AM PDT Fri Oct 9 2026
Strong onshore flow aloft is aiding in the retention of the LIFR- MVFR stratus deck across the region with clearing times generally later than the previous forecast. Still expecting inland terminals to generally clear around 18-20Z while the coastal region remains socked in through the day. Strong onshore winds will develop through the day with gusts up to 20 knots, with some diminishing possible overnight as the lower layers decouple. Some LLWS concerns are present in the interior overnight, particularly at LVK, but they are not strong enough to mention in the TAFs. Opted to keep the generally persistent forecast for stratus formation tonight owing to uncertainty surrounding an approaching cold front, which may allow stratus to dissipate or ceilings to lift. Beyond the 24-hour TAF period, expect stronger winds to develop through Saturday.
Vicinity of SFO, VFR at the terminal through the day with a low to moderate confidence for ceilings around 11-15Z Saturday morning, held off on issuing a BKN line. Strong west winds will develop through the afternoon and evening hours, with low to moderate confidence in the wind speeds overnight as the surface winds decouple. Strong southwest winds are possible late this evening into the overnight hours, with the winds continuing to strengthen as they veer to the west-northwest Saturday afternoon. Gusts above 35 kt are not expected today or Saturday, but may need to see how the winds develop today.
SFO Bridge Approach, Stratus remains in the corridor north of SJC and south of the San Mateo Bridge, with moderate confidence of dissipation around 18-19Z. Otherwise similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals, IFR stratus is expected to linger through the day at MRY with a brief scattering in the afternoon at best, and may clear out at SNS within the next couple of hours. Stratus is expected to return this evening with LIFR conditions possible overnight. A moderate onshore breeze is expected this afternoon and late Saturday morning, persisting after the end of the TAF period. Any influences from the incoming cold front will come after the TAF period ends.
(today through Wednesday) Issued at 1036 AM PDT Fri Oct 9 2026
Strong northerly breezes will continue to spread into the northern waters today with frequent gale force gusts expected by tonight. Widespread hazardous conditions are expected by Saturday morning through at least Sunday morning as strong to near gale northwesterly breezes spread across the waters and build rough to very rough seas. Long period southerly swell arriving today will collide with long period northwesterly swell Sunday, creating a confused sea state. Conditions will improve by Monday night as northerly breezes diminish to become gentle to moderate and seas subside to become moderate.
Issued at 446 AM PDT Fri Oct 9 2026
Hazardous beach conditions will be present at Pacific Coast beaches Saturday through Monday. Long period southerly swell from distant Tropical Storm Rachel will build in height through the weekend, bringing an increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents. Long period westerly swell from a gale force low in the Central North Pacific will arrive Sunday, bringing breaking waves up to 16 feet. The large tidal swings will also result in coastal erosion as water and waves are brought farther up the beach than normal, especially during high tide. Remain off jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure as waves can sweep across the shoreline without warning, pulling people into the sea. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf and strong rip currents and never turn your back on the ocean!
Sarment
Ca, Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM PDT Tuesday for CAZ006-508-529- 530.
Beach Hazards Statement from Saturday morning through Monday afternoon for CAZ006-505-509-529-530.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM PDT Wednesday for CAZ506.
PZ, Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Sunday for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Saturday to 9 AM PDT Sunday for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.
Gale Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM PDT Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Saturday to 9 AM PDT Sunday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
Gale Warning until 9 AM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10- 60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.
