, Issued at 1057 AM PST Mon Feb 9 2026 (This afternoon through Tuesday Night)
Mid to high level clouds are exist over much of the state today as the storm track under goes a shift. Near the surface a cold front existed the central coast of CA early this morning and ushered in cooler air, with 24 hour temperature trends generally around 2 to 8 degrees cooler than yesterday. Light north winds behind the weak boundary have been able to succumb to local influences with terrain and coastal interactions, however a few higher elevation observations do show north to northeast winds with occasional gusts up to 15 to 20 mph (Santa Cruz Mts, Diablo Range, and some East/North Bay Mts).
Current satellite places an upper trough and surface cyclone around 600 miles off the coast of northern CA today. This upper trough will dig southeast and strengthen as the surface cyclone meets a stationary boundary located to the southeast. This places the location of these features around 300 miles off the coast of central CA tonight into Tuesday morning. The upper wave will become a closed low as these surface features phase and more moisture gets thrown in the mix. The upper closed low continues to deepen Tuesday as it rotates from positive to a more neutral tilt. This will also sling the deepening surface cyclone to the northeast as reaches ~1001 mb to 1005mb. Strong winds wrapping around these features will be reflected all the way down to the surface.. with a 925mb to 850mb jet of 35 to 45kts that moves over the central coast Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. The track doesn't quite align for stronger southeast winds down the Salinas Valley, and initial gradients from KSNS-KPRB remain around 1.6 to 2.2mb which points to lower confidence in winds trending stronger up the Salinas Valley as we get closer. The higher terrain is a different story with the stronger winds aloft. 12Z HREF probabilities 75% chances of at least 35 to 45 mph gusts in the higher terrain of the Santa Lucias and Diablo Range, with 25% chances for 45 to 55 mph. Winds will begin to strengthen midday Tuesday, but peak in these areas later Tuesday evening and night.
A little after winds start to strengthen (Tuesday afternoon and evening) the upper closed low and surface cyclone will eventually land just right off the coast. Through the afternoon upper heights will trend down and increase mid-level lapse rates, as well as a quick window of isentropic ascent should move in with ample moisture (PWATs increasing to ~0.8"). Some lighter rain and clouds could be realized Tuesday afternoon as things approach. As lapse rates increase, instability will also increase. Rain will eventually become more widespread Tuesday evening with embedded showers and storms. Wind shear does exist, and will generally have more of a speed shear component.. however local terrain and coastal influences will very likely generate enhanced directional shear. Cooler air aloft, will help with ice forming and therefore lightning/small hail potential exists with some storms. Gusty winds and a few water spouts are not out of the question either. Locally heavier rainfall with storms will be seen too, however storms will be moving and the low will be wiggling around Tuesday night, leading to low confidence in training or stalling issues of storms.
..issued at 1057 AM PST Mon Feb 9 2026 (Wednesday through next Sunday)
Wednesday morning, another piece of energy will rotate along the west side of the upper closed low, which will keep it centered over central CA through early Thursday. Although the features linger over the CWA, they will weaken starting Wednesday morning. Clouds and light to occasionally moderate rain at times will be seen Wednesday into early Thursday. Wind will gradually weaken Wednesday morning, with the stronger gusts likely remaining confident to the central coast (more details in short term section).
As the upper troughing exits to the south, upper ridging will build in for later Thursday and into Friday. A break in rain chances will be seen, with more sunny skies and temperatures slightly warming.
Chances for a quick return to a wet pattern continue to increase. Starting Sunday, an upper trough will start to dig southward along the state returning beneficial rain and cooler temperatures. Weaker surface features look to accompany this system, resulting in higher confidence in light to moderate rain, beneficial rain. The upper trough continues to dig south and amplify into early next week, which should continue wet and cool conditions over the CWA.
(18z TAFS) Issued at 944 AM PST Mon Feb 9 2026
We'll have plenty of mid/upper clouds streaming overhead this period, which means minimal concerns about fog for tonight into Tuesday morning. Right now, there is a surface low located at about 33N, 135W out in the Pacific that will push NE toward the central CA coast Tuesday evening. As this low approaches the CA coast, a band of rain will move onshore. However, based on the 12z HREF, this rain looks to hold off in central CA until after 18z Tuesday, so it's only SFO and OAK that have a rain mention with this TAF set, with all other terminals getting in on the -RA action with the 00z TAF set.
Vicinity of SFO, -RA will be pushing in Tuesday afternoon. 20z-23z currently looks like the window for -RA onset. With the rain will also come the potential MVFR cigs, though RAP forecast soundings don't really show MVFR cigs moving in until just after Wednesday 00z, so kept cigs VFR for now, though did drop the vis to MVFR with the precip. Another issue for SFO will be wind directions. With the surface low approaching from the southwest, we'll have a pressure gradient that will support southeast winds that will have the potential to put the field into a southeast configuration Tuesday afternoon and evening. Besides MVFR cigs, just lurking beyond the end of this period will be the threat for some TS Tuesday evening as well.
SFO Bridge Approach, No issues expected with visual approaches until rain begins moving into the Bay area Tuesday afternoon.
Monterey Bay Terminals, As the low approaches from the southwest and southerly 925mb winds begin to approach the CA coast, RAP soundings do hint at the potential for some stratus coming in off the Pacific between roughly 12z and 16z. For now, added that SCT cloud group at 12z to cover this threat at MRY. It doesn't not look to be an issue for SNS.
(today through Saturday) Issued at 241 AM PST Mon Feb 9 2026
Fresh to strong northwest breezes prevail across the coastal waters today. A low pressure system will then approach from the west bringing rain to the coastal waters and bays Tuesday through Wednesday. Gale force gusts are possible on Tuesday in the waters south of the Golden Gate depending on the strength and track of the low. Rain chances return next weekend.
Ca, None. PZ, Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Tuesday to 3 AM PST Wednesday for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Gale Watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Tuesday to 9 AM PST Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST this afternoon for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Tuesday to 9 AM PST Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.
