Issued at 502 PM PDT Fri May 1 2026
The forecast appears to be on track. High clouds are passing overhead, with stratus seeping into the coast due to the deepening marine layer. This looks to deepen this evening and overnight, perhaps to 1500 to 2000ft.
, Issued at 125 PM PDT Fri May 1 2026 (This evening through Saturday)
We'll lose the influence of the upper ridging moving across our area this afternoon by sunset, with a pattern shift to persistent troughing through the weekend into the beginning of next week. Stratus has mostly retreated back to the coastline with San Francisco and SF Peninsula lagging a little behind early this afternoon. Otherwise expect mostly sunny skies with a layer of thin cirrus for the remainder of the day. As an upper low continues tracking south offshore toward our latitude, we'll see the marine layer continue to gradually increase through the weekend. Stratus development tonight and its intrusion inland will be similar as what we saw last night into this morning. With the slight increase in the depth of the marine layer as well tonight, it should take a little longer to mix out Saturday, into the early afternoon for adjacent inland spots, and potentially linger most if not all day for immediate coastal areas. There is a chance of drizzle along the coast late tonight into Saturday morning with the best chances in higher elevated coastal ranges.
..issued at 125 PM PDT Fri May 1 2026 (Saturday night through next Thursday)
The increased cloud clover inland and cooler temperatures will lead to a more notable drop in inland high temperatures this weekend, around 5 degrees from todays values on Saturday and another 5 on Sunday, with little change for coastal areas under the continuous influence of the marine layer. As the Rex Block begins to pivot inland, so too will the offshore upper low, beginning to take a more direct path inland on Sunday. The cooling trend will continue into the beginning of next week. By Monday and Tuesday, high temperatures will bottom out to between 5-10 degrees below normal as the system tracks inland into the desert southwest. Unfortunately, this system has continued to trend drier from already anemic moisture offered in guidance earlier this week. As mentioned above, there will be patches of drizzle at times mostly confined to the coast but with no impacts. Wednesday appears to be the beginning of an extended period of warm and dry weather under persistent ridging well beyond the current forecast period.
(00z TAFS) Issued at 502 PM PDT Fri May 1 2026
High clouds stream over the region this afternoon, with stratus deepening along portions of the coast. Expect another night of MVFR cigs at most terminals, with the possibility for IFR in the North Bay Valley terminals, KHAF, and around the Monterey Bay. Stratus should have a similar onset to last night, if not a few hours earlier. The marine layer is expected to deepen to about 1500- 2000ft, which means it may take a little longer to erode tomorrow. Most sites should start seeing cigs lift by mid morning and mix out by the late morning or early afternoon hours. This will likely be short lived as stratus looks to make another surge Saturday night into Sunday morning. Medium to high confidence in the forecast.
Vicinity of SFO, Stratus is slowly filtering in from the west and gradually filling through the San Bruno Gap. Expect stratus to arrive at the terminal within the next couple of hours, with a nigh of MVFR cigs. Model guidance suggests the stratus holds on a little bit longer tomorrow morning perhaps lifting above MVFR around 20Z. We should get a brief period of VFR cigs from 20-23Z, with stratus returning for tomorrow evening. Medium to high confidence in the forecast.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO. MVFR cigs should cover the northern portion of the bay this evening and cover the southern half of the San Francisco Bay after midnight. Clouds tomorrow should lift or mix out over the southern half of the bay, while the northern side takes a bit longer to clear. Low to medium confidence.
Monterey Bay Terminals, Satellite this afternoon looks very familiar, with a tendril of stratus covering KMRY and entering into KSNS's air space. The question is, will it behave similarly? Meaning, KMRY remained socked in but KSNS had a brief stint of VFR cigs yesterday evening. Opted to go with the more pessimistic forecast but will need to keep an eye on KSNS in case the stratus does decide to meander a bit. Once it returns, MVFR to IFR cigs are expected overnight and into Saturday morning. Cigs begin to lift late morning and into the early afternoon, though stratus returns tomorrow evening. Medium to high confidence in the forecast.
(tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 502 PM PDT Fri May 1 2026
A fresh to strong northwesterly breeze continues into Saturday before winds diminish. Winds will become moderate to fresh late Saturday into Sunday. Moderate, wind driven, seas will build to 8 to 10 feet across the northern outer through Saturday afternoon. Seas subside late Saturday into Sunday as winds continue to diminish next week.
Ca, Beach Hazards Statement from Saturday morning through Sunday evening for CAZ006-505-509-529-530.
PZ, Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
