Issued at 913 PM PST Thu Feb 5 2026
Today was the warmest day of the upcoming forecast period, with afternoon highs 10-20 degrees above seasonal normals. Salinas Airport broke a daily record high this afternoon with 81 degrees, the previous record was 80 degrees set in 2018. Temperatures will gradually decrease toward seasonal normals over the weekend, with below-normal temps returning next week.
Watching a stream of mid-level moisture push northward into our forecast area this evening with inverted-V soundings shown in San Diego's 00Z observation as well as in numerous ACARS observations in the Los Angeles metro. As of 9PM PST, this moisture can be seen via light radar returns pushing into Monterey and San Benito counties. Not expecting much in the way of precipitation, with no measurable rainfall noted across central nor southern California so far, though occasional sprinkles this evening and overnight cannot be ruled out. Additionally, the dry low levels noted in the 00Z KOAK sounding may combine with virga and/or very light rain to result in sudden gusty outflows at times.
No additional updates to the forecast at this time. The Beach Hazards Statement currently in effect will be upgraded to a High Surf Advisory tonight through 9 PM on Saturday. For more details, see the BEACHES section below.
, Issued at 123 PM PST Thu Feb 5 2026 (This evening through Friday)
h5 analysis shows an upper trough in the process of getting shed from the main upper low south of the Aleutians. This feature will become cut-off from the main upper flow and drift toward the Baja peninsula, remaining off shore of California. It has been another very mild and sunny early February day. The ridge has started to push southeast, though the thermal ridge is still close enough to Monterey and San Benito counties that Salinas and Monterey have gotten close to record highs for the day, while locations up around the Bay are a couple of degrees cooler than Wednesday. As the upper low pushes toward the CA coast tonight, we'll continue to see the cirrus shield over southern Cal push north. As the upper low gets closer, we'll add some mid level clouds to the mix as well through the night. The main impact from the clouds is we're anticipating much less fog in the valleys than we have seen the past few nights, though if we end up with less cloud cover than anticipated, we still have the same general weather pattern we've had for the past several nights that has supported the valley fog, so less cloud cover will result in more fog. During the day on Friday, as the upper low gets to the west of LA, southeasterly flow across southern Cal will push slightly higher low level moisture north. The NBM continues to show some 15ish PoPs later on Friday in the higher terrain around Big Sur, though forecast soundings are stratus/drizzle soundings with a shallow (less than 1k feet) near-surface moisture layer, so we continue to keep the MTR area dry through Friday.
..issued at 123 PM PST Thu Feb 5 2026 (Friday night through next Wednesday)
Biggest thing about the long term is a gradual change in the large-scale pattern as persistent ridging gets replaced by a long wave trough over the western CONUS next week. The first bit of moisture with this pattern change shows up Sunday evening into Monday, though this moisture feed will be directed toward northern Cal and Oregon. Precipitation chances continue to trend later on Sunday night, with the best chances coming after sunset on Sunday, with the highest chances (40%) in the north end of Sonoma county. As this moisture feed pushes south, so we see dwindling precipitation chances through the day on Monday in the Bay area. The bigger issue to watch with this increase in moisture would be for cloud/stratus potential to start next week.
Better precipitation chances show up Tuesday night into Wednesday (50% along the coast). This will be driven by a positively tilted h5 trough moving south across CA and the eastern Pac. EPS precipitation Matrix at SFO shows about 60% of its members showing measurable precipitation Tuesday night into Wednesday, though most members that show QPF have it under 0.25", so we're not looking at a high impact rain event, though something that may send you reaching for the windshield wipers. The bigger impact from this trough will be the cooling of the temperatures as we see our highs in the 60s and 70s we've enjoyed the past few days get replaced by a more typical 50s and 60s.
(06z TAFS) Issued at 941 PM PST Thu Feb 5 2026
Mainly VFR at the terminals, except locally lower visibility to MVFR conditions due to haze. Mid to high clouds should limit fog formation overnight. However, a low chance of fog still exists near KSTS/KAPC. Winds overnight will be light and diurnally driven. Locally breezy conditions with any light, passing showers late tonight into Friday morning. An uptick of onshore winds will bring higher chances of coastal stratus/mist overnight, but extent should be limited. Potential for ceiling/vis impacts from stratus/mist will increase Friday night into Saturday morning as onshore winds become more widespread.
Vicinity of SFO, Mid to high clouds should limit chances for HZ/BR forming Friday morning. Winds light NW overnight. Low potential for MVFR/IFR ceilings overnight into Friday morning. Could see some sprinkles during this time. Higher potential for stratus to return Friday night.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.
Vicinity of SJC and OAK, Mid to high clouds should limit chances for HZ/BR forming Friday morning. Winds light overnight. Low potential for MVFR/IFR ceilings overnight into Friday morning near KOAK. Could see some sprinkles during this time. Higher potential for stratus to return Friday night.
Monterey Bay Terminals, VFR expected overnight into Friday morning under mid to high clouds. Could see some sprinkles during this time. Light southeast winds overnight through Friday morning, becoming northwest Friday afternoon. Higher potential for stratus to return Friday night.
(tonight through next Wednesday) Issued at 941 PM PST Thu Feb 5 2026
Light to gentle northwest winds persist overnight through Friday and Saturday. Rough seas continue to build into Friday as a long period westerly swell arrives across the waters. Winds will subsequently increase late weekend with an approaching system from the Pacific Northwest.
Issued at 918 PM PST Wed Feb 4 2026
A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect from midnight tonight to 4 AM PST Friday at all Pacific Coast beaches, then upgrading to a High Surf Advisory through 9 PM on Saturday. Westerly swell will bring an increased risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents with breaking waves of 14 to 19 feet, increasing to 17 to 22 feet on Friday.
Remember to stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure, remain out of the water, and never turn your back on the ocean!
Ca, Beach Hazards Statement until 4 AM PST Friday for CAZ006-505-509- 529-530.
High Surf Advisory from 4 AM Friday to 9 PM PST Saturday for CAZ006-505-509-529-530.
PZ, Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Friday to 3 AM PST Saturday for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 9 PM PST Friday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.
