, Issued at 205 AM PST Sat Feb 7 2026 (Today and tonight)
Current nighttime microphysics satellite imagery shows a large swath of high clouds slowly overspreading the Bay Area. Eventually, these high clouds will obscure the view of the low level stratus and fog that has developed over the waters and into the North and East Bays, and Salinas Valley. Many obs around and south of SFO/OAK are showing more of a low stratus layer with ceilings somewhere between 400 and 600 feet. Whereas looking at local webcams in the North Bay, it appears that any dense fog is isolated which prevents the need for an advisory at the moment. However, should conditions continue to deteriorate, it is possible that a Dense Fog advisory may be needed.
Other than the increased cloud cover, conditions today should be fairly similar to yesterday. High temperatures in the upper 50s/low 60s along the coast, mostly 60s inland, and the chance for low 70s in southern Monterey and San Benito counties. Skies should clear out once again tonight which should allow for another chance for radiative fog in favored valley locations.
Sunday's temperatures should be fairly similar to what is observed today. A weak shortwave trough is expected to move inland over Oregon late Sunday morning and through the day. While the bulk of the impacts will be in Northern California (and points north), the trough should extend far enough south for some measurable (albeit limited) precip to fall in the North Bay. The most recent NBM is a little bullish about timing, bringing PoPs in much sooner than any ensemble suite or hi-res guidance. The forecast was adjusted to keep the (20 to 40 percent) chance for rain in the North Bay today, but likely not arriving until the afternoon. There is still a little uncertainty in how far south the rain will travel. While an isolated sprinkle is possible late afternoon/evening for San Francisco/Oakland, confidence is low.
..issued at 205 AM PST Sat Feb 7 2026 (Sunday through Friday)
Despite the lack of rain, increased moisture aloft should increase cloud cover over much of the area Sunday Night through Tuesday morning. While patchy fog cannot be completely ruled out for early next week, the increased cloud cover should help stymie its development. The next trough will swing over the Bay Area and the Central Coast from Tuesday through early Wednesday morning. While it does look like this trough has a better chance for much of the area to receive some rain, modeled QPF continues to trend down compared to previous model runs. Perhaps some higher elevations in the coastal ranges could see a half an inch of rain, but a third of an inch or less is possible for the coastal areas with inland rain shadowed areas maybe seeing a tenth.
Cooler air advection will slowly filter in with this trough. High temperatures Tuesday will be more closer to seasonal normals in the 50s and lows in the 40s. There is even a chance for some inland areas to have lows return into the upper 30s by Thursday morning.
An upper level ridge is expected to develop over California late Thursday through Friday. Drier conditions are expected with a chance for high temperatures to bounce back momentarily into the low 60s. The next upper level low is expected to move south from the Bay of Alaska on Friday and deepen below 530 dam out over the ocean, west of southwestern Oregon. That low is expected to weaken slightly as it moves over northern California Saturday into Sunday. Models are still showing some disagreement in location, rain amounts, and timing of the system to have confidence in the details. But many ensemble members support that this could be the next chance for a soaking rain over the area. And with 925 mb temperatures expected to drop down to the low single digits with this system passage, highs in the 50s and lows in the 40s, if not upper 30s, are expected next weekend.
(18z TAFS) Issued at 1018 AM PST Sat Feb 7 2026
Satellite imagery this morning shows the marine stratus being a bit more stubborn than forecast over the SF Bay so did start to delay the demise of the stratus at the bay terminals. RAP soundings still show us mixing out this afternoon so do think we loose the stratus at the bay terminals, but it's just going to take a bit longer than we were forecasting. Forecast soundings from the RAP show the boundary layer remaining dry through the night, but highlight the marine layer slamming back into the Bay area Sunday morning. Besides the marine layer, we'll have clear skies with calm winds, so more radiational fog looks to be a potential problem again as well for sites like SNS/LVK/STS. The RAP doesn't really show the marine layer moving back in until 15z Sunday, so did delay a little the return of IFR cigs. Once it comes back though, that marine layer may be with us for the rest of the day on Sunday.
The marine layer fog/stratus impacting the North Bay is expected to linger through late morning, but clear to VFR early this afternoon. High clouds expected to move into the region from off the coast through the period. High confidence in LIFR to VLIFR returning again tonight/Sunday to the North Bay valley areas and STS/APC TAF sites. Flight conditions reduce to MVFR beginning as early as 05-06Z Sunday, going down to IFR/LIFR/VLIFR conditions (1/2-1/4SM visibility with cigs down to 100-200ft) around 09-10Z. The severe reductions are expected to last through the morning and end of the TAF period in the North Bay, similar to today's conditions, though timing/intensity will need further refining in future updates. Sfc winds will be light and variable through the period, and generally west-southwesterly in the lowest 1000ft.
Vicinity of SFO, With a westerly wind, downsloping component of the wind will help clear out the field first, but will take longer to clear the stratus out in the bay. Lower confidence in what stratus will look like Sunday, though HRRR cig forecasts are supported by RAP soundings with low cigs developing over the Bay once again, it's just a question of how long does it take.
SFO Bridge Approach, SFO may be in good shape with the stratus, but will take closer to 21z for the bridge approaches to clear out today.
Vicinity of SJC and OAK, SJC is near the edge of the stratus deck and will likely clear out next, with OAK taking the longest to lose the fog. We're expecting another round of valley fog/bay stratus on Sunday, though RAP soundings keep the low levels of SJC drier than OAK and SFO, so perhaps SJC may be able to have better conditions on Sunday than its neighboring bay airports.
Monterey Bay Terminals, Stratus/fog lifted early this morning, with VFR conditions prevailing through the day today. Dense fog/low stratus is expected to develop again tonight; confidence in whether IFR vs. LIFR conditions will prevail, and onset/cessation timing and how long fog/stratus conditions might prevail is lower here, so left at TEMPO for now. Prevailing condition timing/intensity will be refined in future forecast. Surface winds will be more variable at MRY, but the sea breeze will keep 10-15 kt south-southwesterly winds at STS this afternoon before diminishing again tonight into early Sunday.
(today through Thursday) Issued at 348 AM PST Sat Feb 7 2026
Light to gentle northwest winds prevail across the coastal waters today while light southwest winds develop over the far outer waters north of Point Reyes. Seas mainly moderate through Sunday before slightly increasing early next week. A cold front gradually moves southeastward over the coastal waters and bays Sunday and Sunday night resulting in an increase in north-northwesterly winds Monday and Tuesday.
Issued at 205 AM PST Sat Feb 7 2026
A High Surf Advisory remains in effect today at all Pacific Coast beaches, through 9 PM Saturday. Westerly swell will bring an increased risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents with breaking waves 17 to 22 feet.
Remember to stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure, remain out of the water, and never turn your back on the ocean!
Ca, High Surf Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for CAZ006-505- 509-529-530.
PZ, Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST this afternoon for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Sunday to 3 AM PST Monday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
