Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Francisco CA

650 am PDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Update

Issued at 649 AM PDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Stratus development is limited to the Central Coast this morning, with ceilings across the Monterey Bay region, down the Salinas Valley, and into the Morgan Hill-Hollister corridor. Stratus should gradually mix out through the course of the morning with the forecast generally remaining on track.

DialH

Short Term

, Issued at 1225 AM PDT Sun Jun 28 2026 (Tonight through Monday)

An upper level trough that has been moving across the Pacific Northwest will move out of the area today. This will keep the marine layer compressed with mostly clear skies by the afternoon. High temperatures will rise 5-10 degrees from today as a result, with 60s along the coast, upper 60s to 70s along the Bay shoreline, and 70s to low 80s in the interior. HeatRisk is expected to remain Minor even with the increase in temperatures. Onshore winds will become breezy once again in the afternoon and evening, but weaker than yesterday with gusts 15-30 mph, except up to 40 mph through gaps/passes. Stratus should increase tonight, but the shallow marine layer will limit inland development.

Along the Pacific coastal beaches, there is a possibility for marginal coastal flooding. Due to the upcoming full moon (Monday), thermal expansion of Pacific waters, and southerly swells, coastal flooding for low lying beaches at predominantly south facing beaches is possible at high tides through Monday. An uptick in long period southerly swell will result in a high risk of rip currents and sneaker waves. Never turn your back to the ocean! Beach hazards will be in effect through the weekend and into much of next week, see the beaches discussion for more information.

Long Term

..issued at 1225 AM PDT Sun Jun 28 2026 (Monday night through next Saturday)

As an upper level ridge over the Eastern Pacific pushes inland Monday, temperatures will continue to rise for interior areas. Temperatures in the coastal areas will remain fairly similar to Sunday. The warming trend will be halted Tuesday as another upper trough moves into the Pacific Northwest. This will bring cooler, below normal temperatures once again by Wednesday and Thursday as the trough ushers in cooler air aloft. Onshore flow will also increase along with the potential for a deeper marine layer and coastal drizzle. Onshore winds will be breezy to windy each afternoon and evening. By Friday, ensembles are more split on the evolution of the pattern, but ridging becomes a possibility. This is reflected in the forecast by an uptick in temperatures.

Aviation

(12z TAFS) Issued at 337 AM PDT Sun Jun 28 2026

It's VFR except for a few areas of stratus /MVFR/ developing mainly from the San Francisco Peninsula to Big Sur. Stratus mixes out by late morning with VFR prevailing today. Patchy to areas of coastal stratus redevelop tonight and Monday morning.

Vicinity of SFO, VFR. West wind 10 knots increasing to 15 to 25 knots in the afternoon and evening. West wind decreasing to near 10 knots tonight and Monday morning.

SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.

Vicinity of SJC and OAK, San Jose Airport VFR, light southeast wind becoming northwest near 15 knots late morning and afternoon. Wind decreasing and becoming light southeast late tonight and Monday morning. Oakland Airport VFR, light south wind becoming west 15 knots late morning and afternoon then decreasing to near 5 knots tonight and Monday morning.

Monterey Bay Terminals, Stratus /MVFR/ mixing out to VFR by late morning and afternoon. Stratus /MVFR/ redevelops and moves inland tonight and Monday morning. West winds 5 to 15 knots except for a few gusts to 20 knots in the Salinas Valley in the afternoon.

Marine

(today through Friday) Issued at 327 AM PDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Breezy to gusty northwest winds will continue today and tonight. These strong winds will result in hazardous seas for small craft across the waters well into the work week. Gale force gusts will continue over the northern outer waters. Long period southwest swell will persist through the extended forecast.

Beaches

Updated at 1225 AM PDT Sun Jun 28 2026

A Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect for the Pacific Coast Beaches through Wednesday morning as long period southerly swell returns to the coast, creating an increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents, especially for south and southwest facing beaches. Hazardous beach conditions are advertised, specifically for moderate to steeply sloped beaches along the Pacific Coast of the North Bay, San Mateo, Santa Cruz counties. Sneaker waves will run up the beach much farther than other waves, potentially catching beachgoers by surprise and resulting in people being swept into the water. Rip currents are strong enough to pull the strongest swimmers away from shore. Swim near a lifeguard if possible. Stay back from the beach, and away from jetties, piers, beachside rocks, and other infrastructure near the water. Never turn your back to the ocean!

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Ca, Beach Hazards Statement through late Tuesday night for CAZ006- 505-509-529-530.

PZ, Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10- 60 NM.

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