, Issued at 111 PM PDT Sat Sep 5 2026 (This evening through Sunday night)
Hazardous conditions at Pacific Coast beaches will be the main story through Monday. Long period southerly swell from distant Hurricane Marie will result in an increased risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents with breaking waves up to 10 feet. The ocean is not your friend this weekend, so enjoy the unofficial end of summer anywhere but the beach. Sensible weather wise, well below normal temperatures and onshore flow will continue through Sunday. The marine layer continues to be the lowest confidence aspect of the short term forecast. The 12Z sounding found a temperature inversion at 1,400 feet; however, boundary layer winds were not onshore and thus clouds struggled to form. The normal marine layer may continue to struggle to form through the weekend with little forcing in place. As upper-level ridging nudges in from the east on Monday, a gradual warming and drying trend will commence and the marine layer is slated to return.
..issued at 111 PM PDT Sat Sep 5 2026 (Monday through next Friday)
Global ensemble clusters have come into much better agreement with the long term forecast, especially Tuesday through Thursday. Upper- level ridging will continue to build in from the east on Tuesday; simultaneously, a cutoff low will dig well off the West Coast and pickup what will likely be Post-Tropical Cyclone Marie. The farther west track of the low and a stronger ridge has led to a warmer and drier forecast. Even though we are now expected to be on the fringes of it, the upper-level pattern will act as a conveyor belt for remnant tropical moisture with cyclonic flow to the west and anti- cyclonic flow to the east. Rainfall totals up to 0.10" can be expected, favoring coastal and higher terrain locations. Temperatures will moderate to near normal and climb up to 10 degrees above normal by Thursday, introducing minor to moderate HeatRisk.
(18z TAFS) Issued at 111 PM PDT Sat Sep 5 2026
The stratus did not make a triumphant return like the models were hinting at yesterday afternoon. In fact, it appears that only KSTS and KAPC really got socked in with the radiational fog and stratus development. Other sites across the region may've flirted with some MVFR cigs, but for the most part, VFR conditions prevailed! Guidance seems to continue that trend for tonight, socking in KSTS and to a lesser extent KAPC and KHAF. Similar to last night, hi-res guidance tries to form something around the San Francisco Bay around or just before sunrise with conditions improving by mid to late morning. Terminals in the North Bay should clear around that time too, if they haven't already, with KHAF potentially taking a bit longer. VFR conditions are expected for all terminals by the early afternoon. Medium to high confidence in the forecast.
Vicinity of SFO, A few low and mid level clouds can be observed around the KSFO and the SF Bay this morning and will likely hold through the afternoon. During this time, winds will turn onshore and gradually increase too. Sustained 12-18kt winds are expected, with gusts up to 20-25kt possible through sunset. Winds decrease as we lose daytime heating, with 10kt winds expected after 6Z. Models try to bring some stratus in tonight, but given how they looked last night and what we observed. Opted to continue the hint of low clouds instead of bringing cigs fully into the MVFR category. Should it happen, expect cigs to form between 10-12Z and lift/mix out between 15-18Z. Medium to high confidence in the forecast.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals, The forecast for today should be similar to last night. The signal for the marine layer making a return is weak, with low clouds potentially returning between 11-15Z. Opted to start trending with a more optimistic forecast given today's track record and having similar output to 00Z. Which means, VFR conditions should prevail through 18Z tomorrow. Medium confidence in the forecast.
(tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 301 PM PDT Sat Sep 5 2026
North to northwest breezes will be gentle to moderate through the beginning of next week. Diurnal moderate to strong breezes are expected across the San Pablo, San Francisco and Monterey Bays today into the beginning of next week. Fresh to strong gusts become more widespread early next week before winds decrease by midweek. Long period southerly swell will continue to impact the coastal waters through much of the upcoming week.
Issued at 1010 PM PDT Wed Sep 2 2026
A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect Friday-Monday as the swell from both Hurricane Marie and Hurricane Karina reaches the coast. As these hurricane whip up the ocean, the waves travel over 1,000 miles in all directions, gradually flattening out to low amplitude, but long period swell. These waves aren't very intimidating if you're on a boat in the open ocean, but the long period allows them to push much farther up the beach. Long period swell always increases the chance for sneaker waves, but that's particularly true this weekend since there are 2 different sets of southerly swell, and their energy will periodically combine. In addition to sneaker waves, expect strong rip currents and breaking waves up to 10 ft. As this is a holiday weekend and the weather is otherwise pretty nice, the exposure to the risk is high. Avoid the water if you're not an expert swimmer. If caught in a rip current, swim parallel to shore until you stop feeling the pull. Even on the beach, be prepared for sneaker waves this weekend and never turn your back on the ocean.
Ca, Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for CAZ006-505- 509-529-530.
PZ, Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay- Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM PDT Sunday for Mry Bay.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Sunday to 3 AM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
