, Issued at 1230 AM PST Wed Nov 4 2026 (Today and tonight)
Satellite imagery reveals a faint surface low around 50 miles off of Point Reyes, feeding a weak band of showers that are moving through the SF Bay Area and Monterey Bay region. Slight chances of showers are possible before sunrise, but should continue to dissipate with the surface front becoming less and less defined. The skies should clear by the late morning and early afternoon hours.
A look at the wider synoptic pattern reveals an upper level low moving through the Great Basin, with a slight ridge behind it helping to keep the large-scale flow from the northwest and keeping fire weather concerns at bay. Morning lows range from the lower to middle 40s in the interior valleys into the upper 40s to lower 50s along the coast and into the SF Bay Area and Monterey Bay regions. Temperatures should be quite a bit warmer, especially in the North Bay where temperatures in the inland valleys should jump from the upper 50s to lower 60s yesterday to the upper 60s today. Upper 60s to lower 70s are also expected across the inland valleys into the Central Coast, while Bayshore locations hover in the middle to upper 60s and the coasts remain in the lower 60s. A breezy onshore push should develop in the afternoon and evening hours with gusts of 20 to 30 mph along the coast and through favored gaps and passes.
A combination of high astronomical tides and thermal expansion surge will cause coastal flooding concerns across Bayshore areas across the San Francisco, San Pablo, and Monterey Bays. At the San Francisco tidal gauge, high tide is expected to be 1.0 ft above normal (6.8 ft MLLW) at 8:00 AM today, including 1.2 ft of surge residual. High tide varies up to 90 minutes earlier or later along the Pacific Coast and through the San Francisco Bay, respectively.
..issued at 1230 AM PST Wed Nov 4 2026 (Thursday through Tuesday)
A warming trend is expected through the next few days with an upper level trough building into the West Coast. Temperatures are expected to peak over the upcoming weekend, with the inland valleys expected to warm to the middle 70s to the lower 80s and coastal areas hovering in the 60s.
Into the early part of next week, the temperatures will cool as the ridge axis moves off to the east and a trough comes close to the Pacific Northwest. Within the seven-day outlook, any rain chances will be deflected far to our north in the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia. Beyond the seven-day outlook, the rain chances start to migrate southward towards central California, but at that point, any specific details are heavily uncertain.
Coastal flooding concerns will continue through Monday with the combination of high astronomical tides and thermal expansion surge resulting in minor flooding in Bayshore locations along the San Francisco, San Pablo, and Monterey Bays. At the San Francisco tidal gauge, high tide is expected to be 1.3 ft above normal (7.1 ft MLLW) at 8:35 AM Thursday 11/5, 1.4 ft above normal (7.2 ft MLLW) at 9:08 AM Friday 11/6, 1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 9:38 AM Saturday 11/7, 1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 10:06 AM Sunday 11/8, and 1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 10:35 AM Monday 11/9. These predictions include up to 1.2 ft of surge that will enhance the astronomical tide and flooding threat. High tide varies up to 90 minutes earlier or later along the Pacific Coast and through the San Francisco Bay, respectively. In addition, long- period swell Thursday through Saturday will create hazardous conditions along the Pacific coast beaches with an increased risk of sneaker waves and rip currents.
(12z TAFS) Issued at 329 AM PST Wed Nov 4 2026
Currently MVFR-VFR. Recent rain and clear skies has allowed radiational stratus to develop, especially across the Bay Area. Low confidence on exact timing of clearing; however, conditions will likely begin to improve by 14Z with VFR expected by 18Z. Easterly winds this morning will increase and back to become northwesterly this afternoon and evening.
Vicinity of SFO, Currently MVFR with easterly flow. Low confidence on exact timing of improving to VFR, reasonable best case scenario is conditions begin to improve between 14Z and 15Z. Winds will increase and back through the morning to become gusty and northwesterly this afternoon and evening.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals, Currently VFR with easterly flow at MRY and VFR and calm at SNS. There are low clouds on the cusp of MVFR/VFR in vicinity of the terminals. Reductions to MVFR can be expected through 16Z as a result; however, with the layer appearing to be thin, it may mix out earlier. Drainage winds this morning will increase and back to become northwesterly this afternoon.
(today through Monday) Issued at 329 AM PST Wed Nov 4 2026
A low pressure system will dissipate through the morning, with high pressure coming in for the weekend. Winds will become northerly by the afternoon hours. Moderate to rough seas prevail through the weekend. Dry conditions expected today into early next week.
Issued at 329 AM PST Wed Nov 4 2026
Hazardous beach conditions will be present at Pacific Coast beaches Thursday through Saturday as long period (14-18 second) westerly/northwesterly swell will bring an increased risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents with breaking waves of 12 to 16 feet. Waves can sweep across the shoreline without warning, pulling people into the sea from beaches, jetties, and rocks. Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf and never turn your back on the ocean! Hazardous beach conditions may linger into Sunday and Monday and thus may warrant an extension of the Beach Hazards Statement.
Sarment
Ca, Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM PST Monday for CAZ006-506-508- 530.
Beach Hazards Statement from late tonight through Saturday evening for CAZ006-505-509-529-530.
PZ, Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 PM PST Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PST this evening for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
