Issued at 927 AM PDT Thu Jun 18 2026
A fairly deep marine layer (2500 ft) was observed this morning. Stratus is currently receding across the interior but may last into the afternoon along the coast. Lowered today's high temperatures, particularly across the North Bay Valleys, to account for prolonged stratus this morning. The Beach Hazards Statement for coastal areas was extended through Sunday morning. If you are going to the beach, be aware of an increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track.
, Issued at 1245 AM PDT Thu Jun 18 2026 (Today and tonight)
Satellite imagery early this morning indicates low clouds expanding within a 1500-2000 ft deep marine layer, which is slightly deeper than the past couple of days. The stratus will follow a typical pattern today, continuing to expand in coverage early this morning and then decreasing after sunrise before retreating back to near the coast during the afternoon. Patchy drizzle will also develop along the coast this morning. The flow will remain onshore today and increase slightly from yesterday. Winds will be breezy this afternoon and evening, especially near SF Bay and Monterey Bay as well as adjacent valleys where gusts should locally reach 20-30 mph. The marine layer and onshore winds will keep temperatures similar or a degree or two cooler near the coast today, with highs ranging from the upper 50s to around 70 degrees, generally slightly below normal. An approaching trough will further reduce temperatures inland, decreasing around 5 degrees on average from Wednesday. This will place highs in the 70s and 80s, or around 5-10 degrees below normal in most areas, resulting in Minor HeatRisk. Tonight, expect stratus to fill back in within the marine layer with patchy drizzle redeveloping along the coast.
Additionally, north and east of our area, there will be enough moisture and instability ahead of the trough for showers and thunderstorms to develop. Weak elevated instability above the stable marine layer will extend just far enough south into northern Sonoma and Napa counties for a 5% chance of showers and thunderstorms in these areas. Chances for showers/storms will be even lower further to the south. The main takeaway is that while the potential for shower/storm development is very low, we cannot completely rule out an isolated shower or thunderstorm across northern areas.
The long-period southerly swell will continue to bring a risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents, with a Beach Hazards Statement out through late Friday night. See the BEACHES section for more information, but the main takeaway is to never turn your back to the ocean!
..issued at 1245 AM PDT Thu Jun 18 2026 (Friday through Wednesday)
The trough off the coast will begin to move onshore on Friday, then linger over the area into the weekend. Weak elevated instability across the north will keep a 5% chance of showers and thunderstorms across northern Napa and Sonoma counties on Friday. Otherwise, temperatures will continue to trend lower, especially inland, on Friday as the marine layer deepens further and cooler air arrives with the trough. Highs near the coast should remain in the upper 50s to around 70 degrees, and inland should decrease another 5 degrees or so. Temperatures in most areas will remain similar on Saturday, but begin to increase inland by Sunday as the trough weakens. Expect stratus each night/morning with patchy coastal drizzle.
Ensembles remain in agreement that a ridge will build across the West early next week. This will bring a warming trend, especially inland, with some interior locations reaching the 90s once again and Moderate HeatRisk concerns by midweek.
(18z TAFS) Issued at 1043 AM PDT Thu Jun 18 2026
Marine layer continues to gradually erode toward the coast with VFR conditions already being reported at OAK, SFO, SJC and LVK. Trends in satellite imagery and latest guidance suggest most other terminals should see cigs breaking by around 20z, with the exception of HAF where MVFR cigs could remain in place through the period. Expect southwesterly winds to become gusty this afternoon, with greatest potential for gusts of 25kts or higher at SFO and APC. Winds will weaken after sunset with marine layer stratus moving in again thereafter as well. Marine layer depth and inland spread should be similar to what was observed this morning.
Vicinity of SFO, Marine stratus has eroded with a return to prevailing VFR conditions. Stronger southwest winds will develop this afternoon with gusts in the 20-25 kt range. Expect these conditions to persist through sunset. Winds will then ease and the marine layer will begin to move back inland, with MVFR cigs around 1700ft likely reaching the terminal by around 08z. Conditions will improve again after sunrise, with cigs forecast to erode by mid morning.
SFO Bridge Approach, Lingering clouds over the bay may continue to reduce visibility for the next few hours. Otherwise conditions should be similar to SFO.
Vicinity of SJC and OAK, VFR conditions should prevail through the afternoon and evening at both SJC and OAK with west to southwest winds of around 15 knots and occasional gusts to 20 knots developing this afternoon. Winds should weaken after sunset. Low stratus deck around 1500ft is forecast to move back into OAK around the same time as the wind dies down and will persist through around 15z. Confidence in MVFR conditions at SJC is lower and have included only a TEMPO group for cigs around 2000ft in the 11-15z time frame.
Monterey Bay Terminals, Marine stratus continuing to result in MVFR conditions at both MRY and SNS. Conditions currently forecast to improve to VFR in the 20-22z time frame at MRY based on latest trends in satellite and model forecast data. However, there is less confidence that SNS will see similar clearing, and thus have included a TEMPO even after 20z to account for the possibility of lingering MVFR cigs. Even if marine stratus does clear at SNS, expect it to move in again by around 00z. Stratus should fill back in at MRY closer to 04z. In both terminals, once the stratus moves back in, expect MVFR conditions to persist through the remainder of the TAF period.
(today through Tuesday) Issued at 927 AM PDT Thu Jun 18 2026
Winds will increase this afternoon and early evening and once again on Friday afternoon and early evening leading to hazardous conditions for small crafts in the San Pablo Bay, San Francisco Bay, Suisun Bay and Monterey Bay. Expect moderate chop along with the increasing afternoon winds each day. Southwesterly swell with light to moderate seas will continue into the weekend, with moderate west to southwest winds across the outer waters.
Issued at 156 PM PDT Wed Jun 17 2026
Long period southerly swell at around 15 to 17 seconds will persist through early Saturday as energetic storms in the Southern Hemisphere continue to affect the California coast, especially for south and southwest facing beaches. Hazardous beach conditions are advertised, specifically for moderate to steeply sloped beaches along the Pacific Coast of the North Bay, San Mateo, Santa Cruz counties. A Beach Hazards Statement for Pacific Coast beaches continues through late Friday night. Be sure to check beach conditions before you head out. Sneaker waves will run up the beach much farther than other waves, potentially catching beachgoers by surprise and resulting in people being swept into the water. Rip currents are strong enough to pull the strongest swimmers away from shore. Swim near a lifeguard if possible. Stay back from the beach, and away from jetties, piers, beachside rocks, and other infrastructure near the water. Never turn your back to the ocean!
Ca, Beach Hazards Statement through late Saturday night for CAZ006- 505-509-529-530.
PZ, Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Friday for Mry Bay-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.
