Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Francisco CA

1023 pm PDT Mon apr 27 2026

Short Term

, Issued at 1055 AM PDT Mon Apr 27 2026 (This afternoon through tonight)

Isolated light rain showers are continuing with the help of remnant surface troughing across the Bay Area. Activity will wane this afternoon, giving way to a mix of Sun and clouds and below normal temperatures. With remnant moisture, low clouds will return to bayshore and coastal locations tonight as the lower levels destabilize.

Long Term

..issued at 1055 AM PDT Mon Apr 27 2026 (Tuesday through Sunday)

The upper-level troughing that brought us light rain over the weekend will pinch off a cutoff low as upper-level longwave ridging moves in from the Eastern Pacific Ocean. This will result in a warming and drying trend with temperatures rebounding to near to slightly above normal. The warmest day of the week will be on Thursday for the Bay Area and Friday for the Central Coast. The locations of the two features, ridge over the Pacific Northwest and low off the coast of Southern California, will support light offshore flow during the overnight hours. Subsidence aloft and offshore flow in the higher terrain will likely yield a shallow marine layer that will only impact coastal locations. Global ensemble clusters are in agreement that the ridge will get tamped down by an approaching upper-level trough as we approach the weekend. There is some uncertainty on how we get there, but by Sunday it is likely that there will be an upper-level low off the California Coast. While there's no measurable precipitation in the forecast right now, this will renew chances for rainfall as we head into next week.

Aviation

(06z TAFS) Issued at 1023 PM PDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Generally VFR conditions at present, with MVFR stratus expanding across the coastal valleys through the night. Stratus will dissipate Tuesday morning with gentle to moderate onshore pattern winds developing in the afternoon hours, with stratus beginning to develop on Tuesday evening, although the highest probabilities of stratus development at the terminals fall after the end of the 24-hour TAF period.

Vicinity of SFO, VFR with some low clouds for the next few hours, with MVFR stratus developing early Tuesday morning before dissipating later that morning. Moderate west-northwest winds will develop in the afternoon and evening hours before diminishing in the late evening. High resolution models depict stratus flowing across the Golden Gate late Tuesday evening, with low confidence of impacts to the terminal itself before the end of the TAF period. Greater confidence in earlier impacts at OAK.

SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals, MVFR ceilings will develop overnight before diminishing in the later hours of Tuesday morning. Gentle to moderate northwest winds Tuesday afternoon and evening, otherwise light drainage flow persists in the overnight and morning hours.

Marine

(tonight through next Sunday) Issued at 1023 PM PDT Mon Apr 27 2026

High pressure off the Pacific Northwest coast and low pressure inland will maintain northwesterly flow over the coastal waters. Moderate to fresh breezes will develop Tuesday as high pressure strengthens. These stronger winds will build rough seas of 8-12 feet across exposed waters later in the week.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Ca, None. PZ, Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Tuesday to 3 PM PDT Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

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