Discussion, UPDATED National Weather Service San Francisco CA 930 AM PDT Wed Jun 10 2026
, New UPDATE,
.KEY MESSAGES, Updated at 1201 AM PDT Wed Jun 10 2026
- Warm and dry weather expected today through Saturday with a moderate risk of heat-related illnesses for interior locations today and Thursday
- Increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents along south and southwest facing beaches through Thursday morning
- Critical fire weather concerns for the interior North Bay and the East Bay Mountains late tonight into Thursday morning
- Minor coastal flooding near high tide beginning this evening for low-lying Bayshore locations
Issued at 925 AM PDT Wed Jun 10 2026
The short term forecast is in good shape, so no changes anticipated. Shallow morning fog (dense in spots) along some of the immediate coastal regions continues to dissipate and in the next 1-2 hours, I anticipate mostly sunny conditions. Our fire, heat, and coastal headlines all appear on track.
We're anticipating Red Flag conditions at elevation across the North Bay Interior Mountains and East Bay Hills starting tonight into the pre-dawn hours on Thursday. The main highlights are enhanced wind gusts due to building high pressure in the wake of a diffuse trough moving to the north and east of the region. Latest NWP has suggested a slight decrease in the MSLP/height gradient (thereby leading to a more subdued jet across the Sacramento Valley). Wind gusts in excess of 40 mph with gusts as great as 60 mph at the higher peaks are still anticipated. Fuels will continue to cure and overnight RH recovery of less than 30% will translate to a potential for fire ignitions and spread, especially with favorable alignment. Winds will abate through the day on Thursday, however, afternoon humidity values will remain critically dry with values in the teens. Remember to obey any local fire restrictions/burn bans and avoid activities that could spark wildfires. Remember, one less spark, one less wildfire!
Regarding heat products, today will be warm, with more impactful heat anticipated on Thursday as offshore winds limit marine layer development (except along the immediate coastline). Be sure to hydrate with plenty of water, limit strenuous outdoor activities to the early morning or evening hours, and never leave children or pets unattended in vehicles. We'll continue to examine the need for additional heat headlines across far interior regions (East Bay) on Friday as onshore flow may initially be very modest.
Finally, coastal hazards are in effect due to an increased risk for sneaker waves/rip currents. If headed to the beach to seek relief from the heat or for recreation, be sure to check conditions before you venture out. Keep an eye on children and pets and never turn your back on the ocean. Minor coastal flood impacts are anticipated due to astronomical tides. While higher than normal high tides are anticipated to occur mostly during the overnight period later this week and into the weekend, coastal infrastructure may experience minor, but impactful, inundation.
, Issued at 1201 AM PDT Wed Jun 10 2026 (Today and tonight)
Clear conditions will generally prevail through the night as a ridge over the eastern Pacific moves into the region, kicking off the first of several days of warm to hot temperatures across the region. High temperatures today range from the upper 80s to the middle 90s across the inland valleys, with the warmest spots reaching the triple digits, while areas near the Bays see highs in the middle 70s to middle 80s, perhaps the lower 70s near southern Monterey Bay, and the coastal regions see highs in the 60s. The interior regions will see Moderate HeatRisk develop, meaning that there is a risk for heat related illnesses among heat sensitive populations, including children, the elderly, pregnant women, people with chronic health conditions, and people who work or live outdoors without adequate shelter, cooling, or hydration.
There will be some relief tonight through Thursday morning as the valleys cool to the middle 50s to lower 60s, while those in the thermal belts will see low temperatures hover in the middle 60s to lower 70s. This is also when strong north to northeast winds will develop in the interior mountains of the Bay Area, especially across the North and East Bays where peak wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph are expected across the area with gusts of 60 mph or higher possible in the ridgetops. These offshore winds will contribute to poor humidity recoveries across the area overnight, and the combination of the hot, dry, and windy conditions will result in critical fire weather conditions where any fires that start could take hold and spread rapidly. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for the North and East Bay interior mountains, to come into effect tonight at 11 PM and lasting through 9 AM Thursday. Fire weather concerns are also elevated across the eastern mountains of Santa Clara County, although the wind gusts will not be as strong. See the FIRE WEATHER section for more information.
High astronomical tides, combined with around half a foot of surge driven by southerly swell and thermal expansion, will result in minor flooding in low-lying areas near the Bayshore beginning this evening, mainly around low-lying locations in the North Bay and particularly eastern Marin County, and expanding to cover the rest of the San Francisco Bayshore beginning Thursday evening. Coastal Flood Advisories will go into effect at 6 PM tonight for the North Bay, and on 7 PM Thursday for the rest of the San Francisco Bayshore. At the San Francisco tidal gauge, high tide is expected to be 0.6 ft above normal (6.58 ft MLLW) at 811 PM on Wednesday the 10th, 1.2 ft above normal (6.98 ft MLLW) at 851 PM on Thursday the 11th, and 1.5 ft above normal (7.23 ft MLLW) at 934 PM on Friday the 12th. The astronomical tide predictions will support an extension of the Coastal Flood Advisories through the weekend and into the early part of next week. As a final note, long-period southerly swell is causing an increased risk for potentially dangerous sneaker waves and rip currents. A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect for parts of the Pacific Coast. See the BEACHES section for more information.
..issued at 1201 AM PDT Wed Jun 10 2026 (Thursday through Tuesday)
Thursday should be the warmest day of the week as the ridge persists across the region. Temperatures in the inland valleys will jump into the 90s to near 102, with the warmest spots going up to around 105, while the Bays see highs ranging from the 80s to the middle 90s and the coastal communities range in the middle 60s to lower 80s. A Heat Advisory will come into effect from noon to 11 PM on Thursday for the North Bay valleys and interior mountains, the Sonoma coastal range, the East bay, the Santa Clara valley and eastern mountains, and the San Francisco Bay shoreline.
The current forecast shows a gradual slight cooling trend beginning on Friday, which is a little curious given the lack of an obvious large scale change to the upper level pattern. Once again, I've opted to bump up the temperatures slightly on Friday owing to the model diagnosis, but there are models that are trying to put marine layer influence back into the region, although how far it goes depends critically on what it can do against the high pressure system. By Saturday, an shortwave trough tries to form over northern California, which could bring us another burst of offshore flow. Considered bumping temperatures up on Saturday as well, but my confidence isn't high enough to pull the trigger as of yet. Ensemble model cluster analysis converges on the ridge continuing to impact the state for the early part of next week as the ridge axis builds into the Pacific Northwest into southwestern Canada. Beyond that, they hint at the ridge breaking down in the middle of next week, although whether that will manifest as weaker ridging over the western US or more zonal flow is to be determined.
(12z TAFS) Issued at 457 AM PDT Wed Jun 10 2026
Strong high pressure remains over the forecast area. The ACV-SFO pressure gradient is 8.5 mb and SFO-SAC is 1.8 mb. Gusty northwest winds over the coastal waters are stirring up sea spray aerosols resulting in mist/fog/haze/hazy conditions beneath a shallow marine layer temperature inversion. Sea spray aerosols are condensation nuclei for stratus and fog. Satellite shows a patch of low stratus and fog /LIFR-IFR/ has developed near KMRY otherwise it's VFR across the forecast area. Patches of stratus and fog will mix out during the morning under increasing diurnal warming and mixing. Increasing north-northeast winds in the lower levels develop tonight and Thursday morning resulting in areas of low level wind shear.
Vicinity of SFO, VFR. Wind variable 5 knots becoming west 15 knots in the afternoon and evening. Northeast surface wind 5 knots tonight and Thursday morning. Low level wind shear develops tonight and Thursday morning.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals, VFR except for temporary BKN-OVC stratus and fog /LIFR-IFR/ vicinity KMRY early this morning. Variable winds 5 knots becoming west-northwest 5 to 15 knots today. Light and variable winds tonight and Thursday morning.
(today through Monday) Issued at 403 AM PDT Wed Jun 10 2026
Gale force gusts will continue across the northern waters, with gusty northwest winds continuing across the rest of the waters, resulting in hazardous conditions for small craft. Winds and seas begin to ease by Thursday evening and are expected to stay light through the remainder of the forecast period.
Issued at 750 PM PDT Tue Jun 9 2026
Long period southerly swell is moving through the waters with buoy observations suggesting that a swell of around 4 to 6 feet is coming from 190 degrees, just west of due south, with a period of around 19 to 21 seconds. The long period swell will result in an increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents along south and southwest facing beaches. As a result, a Beach Hazards Statement has been issued for the Pacific Coast of the North Bay, San Mateo, and Santa Cruz counties through 5 AM on Thursday. Sneaker waves will run up the beach much farther than other waves, potentially catching beachgoers by surprise and resulting in people being swept into the water. Rip currents are strong enough to pull the strongest swimmers away from shore. Swim near a lifeguard if possible. Stay back from the beach, and away from jetties, piers, beachside rocks, and other infrastructure near the water. Never turn your back to the ocean!
DialH
Ca, Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM Thursday to 1 AM PDT Saturday for CAZ006-508.
Heat Advisory from noon to 11 PM PDT Thursday for CAZ503-504-506- 508-510-513>515.
Red Flag Warning from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM PDT Thursday for CAZ504-515.
Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for CAZ505-509-529.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 1 AM PDT Saturday for CAZ506.
PZ, Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.
Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Gale Warning until 3 PM PDT Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10- 60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.
