, Issued at 1226 PM PDT Thu Jul 16 2026 (This evening through Friday night)
Lingering stratus around the Monterey Bay has eroded as of this writing, however the cooling trend continues today as a result of increased onshore winds and the deepening mid/upper level trough off of the Pacific Northwest coast. The increased winds will result in elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon and evening as near critically dry conditions persist across the interior and higher terrain of the region. Wind gusts are expected to reach 25-35 mph in the favored gaps and passes. Please see the Fire Weather section of the AFD for additional details.
The marine layer is forecast to deepen to around 1,000 feet overnight, resulting in better chances for seeing low clouds develop along the coast and into the coastal adjacent valleys. That said, there is a low probability of mist and/or drizzle late tonight and into Friday morning. Low clouds that do develop will retreat back to the coastline by mid-to-late morning.
By Friday afternoon, the cooling trend will continue with temperatures dropping to slightly below seasonal averages. Thus, we are expecting upper 50s to 60s near the coast, upper 60s to middle 70s just inland, and lower 80s to near 90 deg F (the warmest interior spots). Friday night, low clouds are more likely to reach into the coastal adjacent valleys and potentially into the inland valleys as the marine influences become better established. This will also increase the potential for mist and/or drizzle near the coast. However, probabilities are not high enough to include drizzle in the official forecast.
..issued at 1226 PM PDT Thu Jul 16 2026 (Saturday through next Wednesday)
Temperatures will be similar to Friday through much of the weekend with slight day-to-day fluctuations depending on the depth of the marine layer. We continue to monitor tropical and monsoon moisture that is forecast to spread across the Bay Area and Central Coast late in the weekend into early next week. Tropical Storm Elida is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to be a hurricane by 5 AM Friday (tomorrow). This system is forecast to move out into the open Pacific and not directly impact the region. However, high pressure placed over the Intermountain West this weekend will advect moisture from Elida and monsoon moisture northward brining an increased in mid-to-high level clouds on Sunday and beyond (this the most likely scenario). The lacking ingredient is still instability! Be sure to keep up to date with the latest forecast information over the coming days.
(00z TAFS) Issued at 448 PM PDT Thu Jul 16 2026
Currently VFR with MVFR-IFR conditions expected overnight. The marine layer is expected to deepen to around 1000 ft tonight with stratus returning along the coast and SF Bay shoreline. Highest confidence in stratus impacting HAF, MRY, and SNS with moderate confidence that it will reach STS, APC, OAK, and SFO. Have pushed back the arrival of stratus slightly with confidence increasing in a late evening/overnight return. Breezy onshore winds continue through the evening before winds ease overnight. Expect another round of breezy onshore winds during the afternoon/evening hours tomorrow.
Vicinity of SFO, Currently VFR with MVFR CIGs to return overnight. Stratus returns early tomorrow morning with moderate confidence that it will be on the MVFR-IFR border. There is some potential SFO could remain clear all night with the HRRR keeping stratus confined to OAK and not filling in across the bay. For now, maintained stratus reaching SFO tonight but confidence is low to moderate. Breezy onshore winds continue through this evening, weaken overnight, and return again during the afternoon/evening tomorrow.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals, VFR with stratus to return overnight. Moderate confidence that CIGs will be IFR-LIFR tonight with CIGs to lower overnight. Some potential for visibility to reduce early tomorrow morning but confidence is low to moderate (and necessitates LIFR conditions developing). Moderate confidence that CIGs will clear by 18-20Z with an early return of stratus likely during the evening. Breezy onshore winds return during the afternoon/evening again tomorrow.
(tonight through next Tuesday) Issued at 448 PM PDT Thu Jul 16 2026
Moderate to strong northwesterly winds will gradually diminish late tonight into Friday. Hazardous conditions for small crafts will persist thought this evening across the coastal waters with localized gale force gusts expected along the coastal jet regions of Point Reyes and Point Sur. Moderate to rough seas will prevail through Friday. Conditions improve Saturday as seas abate and northwesterly breezes diminish.
Ca, None. PZ, Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
