, Issued at 1251 PM PST Mon Nov 2 2026 (Today and Tonight )
Rain returns to the Bay Area and some of the Central Coast. A low pressure currently off the NorCal coast will bring rain back to the region early Tuesday morning and lingering into Tuesday night. Rain is currently being detect over the coastal waters and is expected to enter the N Bay close to sunrise and the Bay Area after sunrise impacting the AM commute. The best forcing and moisture will be over the N Bay with chance for moderate rain. The farther south you go rain becomes more light with interior Central Coast receiving no rain. Rain totals remain the same: highest across the coastal N Bay Mts 0.5-0.75". The rest of the North Bay and the Santa Cruz Mountains will see 0.25-0.5" while the remainder of the Bay Area sees less than a tenth of an inch.
The real wildcard in all of this today will be the chance for thunderstorms. As the low pressure moves into the N Bay coastal waters this afternoon it will usher in some cold air aloft. This will help to destabilize the atmosphere - higher CAPE/ML CAPE and favorable lapse rates for thunderstorm development. Shear parameters on the latest guidance are still on track to promote the potential for rotating cells/waterspouts. The obvious concern would be any waterspouts moving inland. Thankfully, once the low moves inland the overall convective environment fades pretty quick.
Showers will last into the first part of tonight for most of the CWA with the exception of the interior Central Coast.
..issued at 1159 PM PST Mon Nov 2 2026 (Wednesday through next Monday)
Chamber of commerce type of weather returns for the long term forecast. High pressure build in behind the departing rain-maker from Tuesday. A warming and drying trend kicks off on Wednesday and counties well into the weekend. Temperatures will initially be seasonably cool on Wednesday with highs in the 60s to lower 70s, but by Saturday highs soar into the 70s and lower 80s or 10-15 degrees above normal. Relatively clear skies will lead to cool overnight lows during the long term, but nothing too cold.
Taking a peek beyond the long term period looks interesting. A lot can happen between now and then, but early indications show the storm door may open and remain open well into the middle of November. CPC keep the 6-10 and 8-14 day above normal temps and above normal rain. Atmospheric River guidance also shows a much more active EPac with the potential for ARs to impact the region. Be sure to follow for future updates.
Based on the latest tidal information and predicted surge another round of Coastal Flood Advisories may be need Wednesday through Monday. Initially with minor flooding then more moderate over the weekend.
(12z TAFS) Issued at 327 AM PST Tue Nov 3 2026
Currently MVFR-VFR with a cold front approaching from the west. Southerly winds will prevail and increase through the morning with winds diminishing and veering by this evening. The main rain band will reach terminals between 15Z and 17Z and spread northwest to southeast with the best chances for post-frontal rain showers between 22Z and 02Z. Low chance for thunderstorms at the terminals with the best chances over the coastal waters. Pessimistic ceiling forecast with ceilings on the cusp of MVFR/VFR likely to prevail through this evening. The best opportunity for these to mix out will be overnight as offshore flow prevails.
Vicinity of SFO, Currently VFR with light southeasterly flow. Winds will increase and veer to become southerly ahead of and along the cold front. The cold front will likely impact the terminal between 16Z and 19Z. There may be a brief break in between the two, but post- frontal rain showers are expected this afternoon with the best chances between 23Z and 01Z. There remains a low chance for thunderstorms with the best chances farther north. Winds will diminish and veer late this afternoon into this evening.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals, Currently MVFR with southwesterly flow at MRY and MVFR and calm at SNS. Ceilings on the cusp of MVFR/VFR will likely prevail through the TAF period. Southerly winds will prevail at MRY and drainage winds will prevail at SNS. This afternoon, winds will veer to become southwesterly with the best chance for rain showers.
(today through Sunday) Issued at 327 AM PST Tue Nov 3 2026
Moderate to fresh southwesterly breezes will prevail today ahead of an approaching cold front. Rain with a low chance for thunderstorms are possible this morning and this afternoon, especially north of Pigeon Point. Winds will veer to become northerly Wednesday. Moderate to rough seas will prevail.
Issued at 327 AM PST Tue Nov 3 2026
Hazardous beach conditions will be present at Pacific Coast beaches Tuesday as long period (15-19 second) northwesterly swell will bring an increased risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents. Waves can sweep across the shoreline without warning, pulling people into the sea from beaches, jetties, and rocks. Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf and never turn your back on the ocean! Hazardous beach conditions may linger into Wednesday and thus may warrant an extension of the Beach Hazards Statement.
Sarment
Ca, Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for CAZ006-505-509- 529-530.
PZ, Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM PST Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.
