, Issued at 112 PM PDT Thu Apr 16 2026 (This evening through Friday)
Gusty offshore winds continue across the higher terrain through late Friday morning as a deep upper level trough pushes into the Northern Rockies. The strongest gusts are expected across the Vaca Range and the Mayacamas Range in Sonoma and Napa Counties respectfully. Winds shifted offshore (north to northeast) early this morning with Mt. St. Helena reporting a peak gust of 58 mph at 9:30AM this morning. Outside of the highest peaks (including Mt. St. Helena), gusts are expected to peak between 35 to 45 mph with locally stronger gusts across the highest peaks/ridgelines. Winds ease slightly this afternoon/evening before restrengthening tonight into Friday morning. By late Friday morning, winds will diminish across the higher elevations as the deep upper level trough progresses eastward and ridging builds over the West Coast. Very dry daytime conditions continue across the interior today and tomorrow due to the moderate offshore winds. Overnight humidity recoveries will be good along the coast but poor across the interior higher terrain (where gusty winds continue throughout the night). Fire concerns remain minimal thanks to the recent wetting rains and the upcoming wetting rains next week.
Seasonal high temperatures in the 60s to low 70s continue across the interior while highs in the 50s to 60s prevail along the coast. Friday morning continues to look chilly as clear skies overnight will lead to increased radiational cooling. Much of the region will see low temperatures in the 40s on Friday while portions of the eastern Santa Clara Hills and the interior Central Coast drop into the 30s. Residents in the vicinity of Parkfield and Bradley (Monterey County) will see temperatures drop into the low 30s. By the afternoon, chilly temperatures will be a distant memory with highs rising back into the low to mid 70s across the interior and 50s to 60s along the coast. This slight warming trend will continue into Saturday as upper level ridging rebuilds over the West Coast.
..issued at 112 PM PDT Thu Apr 16 2026 (Friday night through next Wednesday)
Seasonably warm temperatures continue into Saturday as upper level ridging builds. Interior highs will peak in the mid to upper 70s with coastal areas staying in the 60s. Temperatures start to cool Sunday as the ridge progresses east with seasonal temperatures in the 60s to low 70s expected across most of the region. Seasonably warm temperatures continue for one more day across the interior Central Coast where highs linger in the mid to upper 70s. As the ridge exits, a deep upper level trough will push into the West Coast with an associated weak surface low and cold front. Model guidance is still split as to when the trough will arrive. The GFS favors a slower arrival (more so Monday-Tuesday) whereas the ECMWF favors a slightly faster arrival late Sunday into Monday. In terms of ensemble cluster guidance, three of the five clusters support a stronger low that lingers offshore of California Sunday through Tuesday. The other two clusters support a more progressive low that moves inland faster. If the cut-off low lingers offshore, rather than progressing inland, that may allow the storm to overperform slightly and see higher amounts of rain across the region. Thunderstorms are also possible Monday and Tuesday afternoons with around a 10-20% chance of thunderstorms on Tuesday. Guidance shows a few hundred joules of MUCAPE with decent lift and moisture from the low. Models are showing early potential for a NCFR to develop on Tuesday which will be interesting to see how it evolves as this system gets closer in time. Rainfall totals from this event are still beneficial with around 1.5-2.5" expected across the North Bay, 1-2" across the coastal mountain ranges, and 0.5-1.0" across the lower elevations. Locally gusty onshore winds are expected Monday into Tuesday along the coast and across the higher elevations but winds are forecast to stay below Wind Advisory criteria. Temperatures drop into the 60s across the region starting Monday and remain there through midweek while morning lows remain in the 40s to low 50s.
(18z TAFS) Issued at 1201 PM PDT Thu Apr 16 2026 VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period, with the highlight being increasing offshore flow. These winds have already picked up over the North Bay earlier this morning and are being observed across much of the region. When winds pick up later this evening and into the overnight hours, the threat for low level wind shear increases over the North Bay and Bay Area terminals. The most likely terminals to see LLWS will be KAPC, KSTS, and KLVK with a bit more uncertainty for KSFO, KOAK, and KSJC. For LVK, there is some uncertainty regarding the exact wind direction around 03Z which is associated with the onset of the low level wind shear. Model guidance is showing some component of southerly flow combined with northerly wind gusts. The exact timing of the persistent southwesterly winds is uncertain and may occur earlier than 08Z. LLWS chances begin to ease for most sites between 10-13Z as winds ease overall.
Vicinity of SFO,
SFO Bridge Approach, Winds around SFO this morning are generally from the N to NE, but should return to the NW over the next couple of hours. Wind speed should increase to roughly 10-15kt, with the possibility of gusts to 25-30kt after 21Z and continue through sunset. Onshore winds should begin to ease then, with offshore winds returning between 6Z-9Z and holding through the overnight hours. Looking at soundings around KSFO, there is the possibility for LLWS. opted to adjust the TAF slightly and cap it around 30kt rather than 40kt given the uncertainty of how strong the northerly winds will be. Any threat of wind shear should ease just before or around sunrise, as winds ease. Onshore flow returns tomorrow afternoon.
Monterey Bay Terminals, At SNS, there is uncertainty regarding the exact timing on the return of offshore winds after 10Z. It may return in the later end of the TAF period, but model guidance is not consistent at this time. Will update as needed. Aside from that, expect VFR conditions. There will be a break from the moderate winds through the night before picking up again early morning tomorrow.
(today through Tuesday) Issued at 433 AM PDT Thu Apr 16 2026
A weak cold front will sweep across the coastal waters early this morning. The passing front will bring fresh to near gale breezes to the coastal waters and bays through today. These winds will build rough seas of 10-12 feet across the outer coastal waters. Winds will ease back to moderate northwest breezes Friday through Saturday, allowing seas to gradually subside.
Ca, None. PZ, Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
