, Issued at 344 PM PST Sun Dec 21 2025 (This evening through Monday)
Steady rain, moderate to heavy at times, from the ongoing atmospheric river will continue over the North Bay for the remainder of today and through the overnight into early Monday morning. The moisture plume oscillates back to the south, primarily over the Bay Area during the day Monday, with both GFS/ECM IVT values backing off, ranging from 0-250kg/m/s through the day tomorrow.
The most recent forecast for the Mark West Creek near Mirabel Heights approaches action stage around sunrise Monday morning where it will level off for the remainder of the day when the rainfall shifts south. Despite the temporary weakening of the atmospheric river, periods of moderate/heavy rain in the Santa Cruz mountains will produce 2-3" from late tonight through Monday evening with lesser amounts expected for the southern Marin coastal ranges and the Santa Lucia, ~1-2" due to a nearly saturated boundary layer near and along the coast.
Although much of the area is expected to see some rain Monday, it will be mostly light and on-and-off away from the coastal ranges, with little impact. Might be a good day to make final preparations for the upcoming holiday. Beginning Tuesday, first along the coastline in the morning, then later inland - the wind and the rain ramp back up considerably.
..issued at 344 PM PST Sun Dec 21 2025 (Monday night through next Saturday)
Confidence is high for the strong winds to begin to develop along our Pacific Coast line Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning. A series of disturbances rounding the base of a trough associated with a deepening closed low well to the north will produce 925mb flow over 50kts at times below 80-90kt 500mb flow. By early Wednesday morning, southerly winds along our coast from Big Sur up to Point Reyes may reach 70-80mph at times. It will be very dangerous to spend anytime near our beaches or to be in our coastal waters Tuesday through Friday. The first wave will push a strong cold front through our entire area early Wednesday morning with periods of heavy rain and a slight chance of thunderstorms that could produce strong wind gusts up to 70mph or higher along with brief downpours. The North Bay and coastal ranges have been benefiting the most from rainfall from the atmospheric river out ahead of the powerful upper level low. Its Wednesday through Thursday when much of our interior will see its highest rainfall totals. A High Wind Watch watch is likely to be hoisted over the next 24hrs along our coastal areas, and at least a Wind Advisory for large portions of our interior Wednesday and Thursday (Christmas Day) when gusts may reach 40mph in low-lying areas, and 60mph or higher along inland peaks. A second, maybe slightly less dynamic front pushes through our area Christmas Day through Christmas night, with similar impacts, periods of heavy rain and strong winds. Winds begin to ease and a drier airmass appears to set in over the course of the day Friday into next weekend.
Remember, this is still 4-5 days out, the forecast details and timing can and will change as we move through the holiday period. Confidence is high that both Christmas Eve and Christmas Day will see our entire area experience periods of moderate/heavy rain with strong winds. Keep checking back as the forecast is refined over the coming days for improved timing of the worst impacts.
(06z TAFS) Issued at 935 PM PST Sun Dec 21 2025
Rainfall expected to intensify across the Bay Area overnight and through Monday morning with gusty southerly winds continuing into late morning. Moderate confidence in winds turning more northwesterly behind the cold front, but the cold front is expected to stall along the Bay Area and gradually drift back northwards by Monday night. This will result in winds shifting back to southerly through the overnight hours Monday night.
Vicinity of SFO, Current radar showing rainfall offshore of the SF Peninsula which is anticipated to impact the terminal through the overnight hours tonight. Southerly winds will continue through tonight and will likely become very light or even turn northwesterly by Monday afternoon as the cold front sags south of the terminal. This trend will reverse through Monday night as the front gradually lift back to the north and winds become southerly again.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals, Mostly dry through this TAF period with very scattered showers during the Monday morning hours, which will likely clear out through midday as the cold front moves back to the north through Monday afternoon.
(tonight through next Saturday) Issued at 935 PM PST Sun Dec 21 2025
Showers continue across the waters north of Point Pinos tonight and through Monday. Winds subside slightly Monday as the front lift back to the north. A significant change takes place Tuesday as a near-storm-force surface low traverses the waters from the southwest towards the Northern California coast. This surface low will undergo rapid intensification as it approaches the coast Tuesday night. There is a chance for isolated thunderstorms across the waters through Wednesday before another strong surface low enters the waters late Wednesday night. Seas build through the week and will be very hazardous to mariners with the potential for wave heights in excess of 20 feet.
Ca, High Wind Watch late Tuesday night for CAZ006-502>506-508>510- 512>518-528>530.
Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for CAZ502>506.
PZ, Gale Warning from 9 PM Tuesday to 3 AM PST Wednesday for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.
Gale Warning from 9 AM Tuesday to 3 AM PST Wednesday for Mry Bay- Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.
Gale Warning from 9 AM to 3 PM PST Tuesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Storm Watch from Tuesday afternoon through late Tuesday night for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Gale Warning from 3 PM Tuesday to 3 AM PST Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.
