Issued at 908 AM PST Sat Nov 14 2026
Post-frotal rain showers persist over the Pacific and portions of the Bay Area this morning. Have updated the forecast to include rain showers over the North Bay and Bay Area through the early evening as the HRRR and RRFS continue to indicate them continuing. Otherwise, no major changes to the ongoing forecast at this time.
RGass
, Issued at 1202 AM PST Sat Nov 14 2026 (Today and tonight)
The first of a series of frontal systems passed us by yesterday, with post-frontal showers persisting across the Bay Area and Central Coast through the morning. Skies will start out partly to mostly cloudy in the morning, with increasing cloudiness through the afternoon and evening hours as a second system arrives for Sunday and Monday. Morning lows will fall in the lower to middle 40s for the inland valleys, down into the middle to upper 30s for the coolest interior spots, and the upper 40s to lower 50s for the Bayshore and coastal regions. Highs today will remain on the cool side with the inland valleys coming in within the middle 60s and the Pacific coast within the lower 60s, while higher elevations areas range in the middle to upper 50s. Winds will be gentle through the day, turning southerly as the second system approaches, with some gusty winds possible in the North Bay mountains tonight.
Very hazardous conditions are developing along the Pacific coast with High Surf Warnings in effect through early Sunday morning due to surf heights of 25 to 35 feet accompanied by a high risk of sneaker waves and rip currents. Locally higher waves of 40 to 50 feet are possible at favored locations including Mavericks Beach. In addition, coastal flooding concerns stemming from wave runup effects are possible along the coastline. See the BEACHES section for more details, but to quote: "These waves bring tremendous power that will overpower anyone in the water and cause coastal erosion. The risk of drowning is very high this weekend. Do not go in the water, avoid climbing on the rocks or leaning over seawalls, and never turn your back on the ocean."
..issued at 1202 AM PST Sat Nov 14 2026 (Sunday through Friday)
A second frontal system comes through Sunday into the early part of Monday. Rain totals will range from a half an inch to one inch across most of the Bay Area, Santa Cruz County, and the Santa Lucia range, one to one and a half inches in the Sonoma County coastal ranges, and a quarter to half an inch across the interior portions of the East Bay and the Central Coast. Winds will be elevated, but will not be as strong as Friday's system with gusts of 20 to 30 mph possible across the SF Bay Area as the front approaches and moves through. Another lull in the rainfall comes later Monday into Tuesday, before a third system comes into the region later on Tuesday through Wednesday and Thursday. It's a little too early at this stage to be confident on how much rain this third system will bring, but the forecast trend is leaning towards a more potent system coming into the region as model output suggests that this storm will be stronger than the Sunday-Monday system and slow down as it comes into the region. The flooding concerns will increase through the next few days as soils saturate and creeks and streams reach bankfull. Beyond the seven-day outlook, the weather pattern remains active with a lean towards rain totals above seasonal averages into the last week of November.
(12z TAFS) Issued at 359 AM PST Sat Nov 14 2026
Scattered light rain showers continue through the early morning hours. VFR conditions prevail through the TAF cycle, with the exception of LIFR fog at KSTS. A brief relief from the rain is expected Saturday afternoon as southerly winds increase to around 10 kt ahead of an approaching cold front. Low confidence for fog to redevelop at KSTS Saturday night due to increased high cloud cover related to the frontal system. The mention of rain showers is likely to be reintroduced in the following TAF issuance.
Vicinity of SFO, VFR with some passing light rain showers. Dry conditions prevail through the afternoon as high cloud cover increases through the day. Winds remain south to southeast up to 10 kt. Occasional strong wind gusts between 15-20 kt are likely to occur towards the end of the TAF period as the cold front nears our coastline.
SFO Bridge Approach, Passing showers will result in brief visibility reductions through the early morning hours. Otherwise, similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals, Scattered rain showers linger through mid- morning at the latest. South to southeasterly winds shift onshore by the afternoon into the evening. VFR conditions persist through the day with increasing high cloud cover. Another round of rain is expected tomorrow night through Sunday morning.
(today through Thursday) Issued at 908 AM PST Sat Nov 14 2026
Moderate to fresh southerly breezes will develop over the waters as a cold front approaches from the north today. Fresh to strong breezes will develop tonight and early Sunday as the cold front moves through. Very hazardous marine conditions persist into early next week with high west- northwest seas up to 30 feet. Wave heights subside slightly on Sunday, but rebuild to high seas with the frontal passage. Expect wave enhancement near harbor entrances and bars due to shoaling. Widespread rain returns Sunday morning and continues into Monday as moderate northwest winds settle over the coastal waters.
Issued at 931 PM PST Fri Nov 13 2026
High Surf Warning: A High Surf Warning is now in effect through 4AM Sunday. A series of hurricane force low pressure systems will impact the NE Pacific through early next week. These storms will produce very high NW swell that will impact the coast and bring very hazardous coastal conditions. The peak of this swell is set to arrive on Saturday with breaking waves up to 35 feet expected along the coast in addition to strong rip currents and an increased risk of sneaker waves. Occasional sets of 40-50 ft waves are likely at favored breakpoints (i.e. Mavericks). These waves bring tremendous power that will overpower anyone in the water and cause coastal erosion. The risk of drowning is very high this weekend. Do not go in the water, avoid climbing on the rocks or leaning over seawalls, and never turn your back on the ocean. Wave amplitude will abate somewhat on Sunday before a new round of very high swell arrives Monday.
Coastal Flood Advisory (Saturday):
The swell on Saturday brings a different variety of coastal flooding as very large breaking waves pile up along the Pacific coast. Research shows wave run-up increases the mean water level by 10-20% of the breaking wave height across exposed beaches. This higher water elevation sets the stage for large waves to crash over sea walls and run up beaches onto adjacent infrastructure, particularly during high tide.
Ca, Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM PST this evening for CAZ006- 505-509-529-530.
High Surf Warning until 4 AM PST Sunday for CAZ006-505-509-529- 530.
PZ, Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Monday for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
