, Issued at 111 PM PDT Sat Sep 5 2026 (This evening through Sunday night)
Hazardous conditions at Pacific Coast beaches will be the main story through Monday. Long period southerly swell from distant Hurricane Marie will result in an increased risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents with breaking waves up to 10 feet. The ocean is not your friend this weekend, so enjoy the unofficial end of summer anywhere but the beach. Sensible weather wise, well below normal temperatures and onshore flow will continue through Sunday. The marine layer continues to be the lowest confidence aspect of the short term forecast. The 12Z sounding found a temperature inversion at 1,400 feet; however, boundary layer winds were not onshore and thus clouds struggled to form. The normal marine layer may continue to struggle to form through the weekend with little forcing in place. As upper-level ridging nudges in from the east on Monday, a gradual warming and drying trend will commence and the marine layer is slated to return.
..issued at 111 PM PDT Sat Sep 5 2026 (Monday through next Friday)
Global ensemble clusters have come into much better agreement with the long term forecast, especially Tuesday through Thursday. Upper- level ridging will continue to build in from the east on Tuesday; simultaneously, a cutoff low will dig well off the West Coast and pickup what will likely be Post-Tropical Cyclone Marie. The farther west track of the low and a stronger ridge has led to a warmer and drier forecast. Even though we are now expected to be on the fringes of it, the upper-level pattern will act as a conveyor belt for remnant tropical moisture with cyclonic flow to the west and anti- cyclonic flow to the east. Rainfall totals up to 0.10" can be expected, favoring coastal and higher terrain locations. Temperatures will moderate to near normal and climb up to 10 degrees above normal by Thursday, introducing minor to moderate HeatRisk.
(06z TAFS) Issued at 940 PM PDT Sat Sep 5 2026
Generally VFR conditions with patches of stratus developing at the coast and along favored ridgelines through the night. Lower confidence in the model output that puts stratus development at the Monterey Bay, and to a lesser extent the North Bay valleys, through the night. Stratus should mix out through Sunday morning with breezy onshore winds resuming in the afternoon and evening hours.
Vicinity of SFO, Moderate to high confidence in VFR conditions through the TAF period, with some MVFR clouds possible early Sunday morning. Gentle northwest winds will continue through the night before moderate westerly winds with strong gusts resume Sunday afternoon and evening.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals, VFR at present. Model output continues to show the possibility of stratus development across the region but it hasn't been observed as of yet and the model output is overdoing the stratus extent offshore. Thus, have elected to leave out mention of ceilings through the night. Light winds continue through the overnight period with a gentle to moderate northwest breeze developing Sunday afternoon and evening. Low confidence in some stratus developing Sunday night into Monday morning, particularly at MRY.
(tonight through next Friday) Issued at 940 PM PDT Sat Sep 5 2026
Gentle to moderate northerly to northwesterly breezes continue through the beginning of next week. Diurnal moderate to strong breezes are expected across the San Pablo, San Francisco, and Monterey Bays each afternoon and evening into the beginning of next week. Fresh to strong gusts become more widespread early next week before winds decrease by midweek. Long period southerly swell will continue to impact the coastal waters through much of the upcoming week.
Issued at 538 PM PDT Sat Sep 5 2026
A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect through Labor Day as the swell from tropical cyclones Marie and Karina reach the coast. Waves from these cyclones will travel over 1,000 miles in all directions, gradually flattening out to low amplitude, but long period swell. These waves aren't very intimidating if you're on a boat in the open ocean, but the long period allows them to push much farther up the beach. Long period swell always increases the chance for sneaker waves, but that's particularly true this weekend since there are 2 different sets of southerly swell, and their energy will periodically combine. In addition to sneaker waves, expect strong rip currents and breaking waves up to 10 ft. As this is a holiday weekend and the weather is otherwise pretty nice, the exposure to the risk is high. Avoid the water if you're not an expert swimmer. If caught in a rip current, swim parallel to shore until you stop feeling the pull. Even on the beach, be prepared for sneaker waves this weekend and never turn your back on the ocean.
Ca, Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for CAZ006-505- 509-529-530.
PZ, Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM PDT Sunday for Mry Bay.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Sunday to 3 AM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
