, Issued at 1230 PM PST Sun Nov 8 2026 (This evening through Monday night)
High pressure remains the dominate weather pattern aloft leading to our warming trend, despite a weakening frontal boundary to our north. As such, temperatures will remain 5-10 deg F above early- November climatological norms. Meanwhile, high clouds continue to stream in from the west. Tonight and into Monday morning, there is the potential for low clouds and/or fog in the Bay Area, much of the Santa Clara Valley, East Bay Valleys, and North Bay Valleys. Similar to today, any fog that does develop will likely dissipate between 9 AM - 10 AM and give way to mostly sunny conditions by the afternoon. Temperatures Monday afternoon will be within a few degrees of those today.
Got beach plans? Check out the BEACHES section of the AFD for safety tips and more information on the Beach Hazards Statement and Coastal Flood Advisory.
..issued at 1230 PM PST Sun Nov 8 2026 (Tuesday through next Saturday)
High pressure will continue to strengthen over the Bay Area and Central Coast on Tuesday and into Wednesday. This will result in temperatures across the interior Central Coast to be some 10-15 deg F above normal with the northern portions of our region remaining 5- 10 deg F above. The high pressure is forecast to shift eastward into the Desert Southwest on Thursday as the trough off of the West Coast deepens.
Rain chances have largely been pushed back to Friday and Saturday with both deterministic GFS and ECMWF showing a cut-off low pressure system developing and pushing inland over Southern California or Baja California from Friday through Sunday. However, there is still chances for rain during this timeframe as the main trough axis shifts inland across the Pacific Northwest and Northern California Saturday through Monday. Be sure to check back for the latest forecast information as we near late week and into the weekend. Exact details on the system's trajectory and expected rainfall
(06z TAFS) Issued at 929 PM PST Sun Nov 8 2026
Currently MVFR-VFR with stratus off the coast and high clouds streaming in from the southwest. Moderate confidence on a persistence forecast for tonight; bayshore and coastal terminal ceilings will likely be on the IFR/MVFR cusp with fog more likely for interior terminals. Diurnal winds will prevail.
Vicinity of SFO, Currently VFR with westerly flow. Moderate (60%) confidence on a ceiling on the cusp of IFR/MVFR developing at the terminal tonight. Similar to last night, the terminal will likely be on the edge of it with worse conditions to the east and south. The most probable time within the possible window of 08Z to 18Z is 12Z to 16Z. Diurnal winds will prevail.
SFO Bridge Approach, Moderate confidence on clouds below FL070 developing as soon as 08Z, conditions beginning to improve by 14Z, and clearing by 19Z.
Monterey Bay Terminals, Currently VFR with easterly flow at MRY and VFR with northeasterly flow at SNS. A brief IFR ceiling was observed at MRY until winds backed to become easterly; thus, expect IFR ceilings in the vicinity of the terminals. There is a similar signal as to what happened last night with IFR ceilings possible now, mixing out in the middle, and then returning late tonight with the best chances between 11Z and 15Z. Diurnal winds will prevail.
(tonight through next Saturday) Issued at 929 PM PST Sun Nov 8 2026
Rough to very rough seas will create hazardous conditions for small craft across the inner waters, outer waters, and Monterey Bay through Monday. Moderate to fresh northerly breezes will prevail through Tuesday, with bays remaining more sheltered. Seas begin to subside Tuesday and winds will back through the day Wednesday to become southerly.
Issued at 1230 PM PST Sun Nov 8 2026
Beach Hazards Statement:
Final day of the weekend and beach weather will be rather nice. However, the surf zone won't be nice. In case you missed it, a Beach Hazard Statement remains in effect. Latest buoy obs show the surf zone remains energetic due to mixed swells and longer periods. As such, large shore break, sneaker waves, and stronger rip currents will be possible. Breaking waves of 12 to 16 feet are expected at exposed beaches and up to 18 ft at favored break point. Spring tides will also increase the currents and bring higher tides than normal. Waves can sweep across the shoreline without warning, pulling people into the sea from beaches, jetties, and rocks. Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure. Remain out of the water if you're not an experienced swimmer to avoid hazardous surf and never turn your back on the ocean! There may be a lull in wave activity early next week, but longer range forecasts show additional swells impacting the coast late next week.
Coastal Flood Advisory:
A combination of high astronomical tides and thermal expansion from warmer than normal water will result in tidal flooding concerns across Bayshore locations in the San Francisco, San Pablo, and Monterey Bays. At the San Francisco tide gauge, high tide is expected to be 1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 10:35 AM Monday 11/9, 1.5 ft above normal (7.3 ft MLLW) at 11:04 AM Tuesday 11/10, 1.4 ft above normal (7.2 ft MLLW) at 11:35 AM Wednesday 11/11, 1.4 ft above normal (7.2 ft MLLW) at 12:10 PM Thursday 11/12, 1.2 ft above normal (7.0 ft MLLW) at 12:49 PM Friday 11/13. These predictions include up to 1.5 ft of surge that will enhance the astronomical tide and flooding threat. High tide varies up to 90 minutes earlier or later along the Pacific Coast and through the San Francisco Bay, respectively. In addition, long-period swell will create hazardous conditions along the Pacific coast beaches with an increased risk of sneaker waves and rip currents.
These Spring Tides are due to a new moon on Monday, which is much lower in the sky this time of year compared to a full moon. In 2 weeks, the astronomical tides will be about 0.8' higher than this round, and the total water level could be more than a foot higher if we get SW winds and/or lower pressure. This combination would bring the total water level near the 1% annual exceedance probability (2.85' above normal), or a 1 in 100 year event. Something to keep an eye on for the week of Thanksgiving.
Sarment/Flynn/MM
Ca, Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for CAZ006-505- 509-529-530.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM PST Friday for CAZ006-506-508- 530.
Coastal Flood Advisory until noon PST Tuesday for CAZ505-509-529.
PZ, Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST Monday for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
