Issued at 1003 PM PST Sun Mar 1 2026
All is quiet this evening, with satellite showing stratus across much of the region. Radar remains clear, with any precipitation being well to the north. It's a hurry up and wait game to see when the light showers will arrive after midnight. Best chances for rain or drizzle remain across the North Bay and immediate coast.
, Issued at 1248 PM PST Sun Mar 1 2026 (This evening through Monday)
Afternoon surface analysis shows the weak/dissipating front from early this morning has now shifted eastward (east of the CWA). As such we're actually see a break in the "action". KMUX has been temporarily switched to clear air mode for the moment. Additionally, the gloomy start to the day has now turned into a mix of Sun and clouds with low stratus bumping the coastline.
So where is the anticipated precip? We'll have to wait for the upstream surface trough and associated low pressure. These two features currently off the NorCal coast are still on track to move inland later tonight and Monday. Latest forecast for tonight through Monday has not deviated a lot from the previous ones. Light precip/drizzle will initially return to the N Bay early tonight before spreading south and east through Monday morning. As the precip band/area moves S and E it will become more diffuse and higher conf for drizzle than rain. Kept a slight chance for thunderstorms in the forecast as well (10-20%), but mainly north of Pt Reyes. Lingering precip chances will quickly fade everywhere by mid-morning Monday. Rainfall amounts have backed off slightly with totals being a 0.01" San Francisco/Peninsula and up to 0.10" N Bay Coastal Mts. Areas S and E a trace to no precip.
..issued at 1248 PM PST Sun Mar 1 2026 (Monday night through next Saturday)
The longwave pattern from Monday into Tuesday is shortwave a ridge with building H5. Skies will clear and temperatures will warm. The shortwave ridge quickly gets squished by a robust shortwave trough digging through OR then NorCal and then NV. Very inside slider vibes. As such, pressure gradients ramp up leading to gusty northerly flow across the Bay Area and Central Coast. Winds are initially NW Wed/Thur before shifting N to NE behind shortwave on Friday in a semi-offshore posture. while windy Wed- Fri not widespread or strong enough to warrant Wind headlines at this time. Given the developing N to NE flow for the second half of the week temperatures are going to warm to well above normal with highs in the 70s.
(06z TAFS) Issued at 948 PM PST Sun Mar 1 2026 The new picture from space shows low clouds infiltrating the region, with TAF sites slowly succumbing to MVFR cigs. Radar scanned a few areas of extremely light reflectivity over the water this evening; however, those never really made it to land. Any light showers or drizzle should develop later tonight, likely closer to the early morning hours. Opted to push mention of drizzle back and keep most cigs around MVFR and hinted at IFR cigs due to lower confidence in that area. Conditions improve mid to late morning, with clearing skies for the afternoon and evening.
Vicinity of SFO, A batch of stratus has made it to SFO this evening, perhaps an hour or two earlier than expected. Cigs are expected to hold at MVFR for at least a few hours, perhaps flirting with periods of VFR if they don't stay landlocked. Any chances for drizzle or light rain should happen after 9Z, if the models are right, and then wrap up mid morning. Clouds will gradually lift or mix out, leading to VFR conditions by late morning or early afternoon. There is some signal at lower clouds returning early Wednesday morning, perhaps between 10-13Z. Confidence was too low to add at this time.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals, Well we cleared out for a bit this evening, but that was short lived as the stratus has returned. Given the games the stratus has been playing tonight, confidence is a bit lower in whether or not it will stick around all night. Opted to keep the more pessimistic forecast of MVFR cigs and hint towards IFR later should we get any drizzle. Cigs should begin to lift by mid to late morning, with VFR conditions expected for tomorrow afternoon.
(tonight through next Saturday) Issued at 948 PM PST Sun Mar 1 2026
A few showers will be possible north of the Golden Gate tonight through early Monday as a weak system moves through. Seas continue to subside through Wednesday. By Thursday seas build as high pressure strengthens over the eastern Pacific. The building high will result in northwest winds to gale force and steepening seas over 12 feet.
Ca, None. PZ, Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Monday to 3 AM PST Tuesday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
