Issued at 643 PM PST Sun Feb 22 2026
Water vapor imagery shows a beautiful and complex weather pattern over the Eastern Pacific this evening, with two storm force lows near 49.3 North / 135.2 West and 38.1 North / 144.5 West, respectively. Meanwhile, a transitory ridge of high pressure is building into Northern California, ahead of another developing low near 27.8 North / 142.3 West.
Most areas today saw warmer temperatures in response to the building ridge and clear skies, and in fact are still trending up 4 to 8 degrees warmer at this hour than this time last night. However, the North Bay remain under the influence of the moisture plume, just enough to keep light warm air advection rain going across a good portion of Sonoma County. The coastal mountains of Sonoma County have seen the brunt of the rainfall, with 24 hour totals ranging between 0.60 and 1.21 inches and with Venado being the top performer with 1.21 inches. Some of this rain did spread into Santa Rosa as well, with the airport reporting 0.09 inches. Current radar also continues to show some light returns, with hourly rainfall rains of just a few hundredths at this time. As the moisture plume shift north tonight, expect these light showers to taper off, with drier conditions developing. These drier conditions will prevail through most of Monday, before the rain returns tomorrow evening.
The main story for tomorrow though will be with the warmer conditions across the region. In fact, 850 mb temperatures increase between 3 and 6 degrees across the Bay Area and Central Coast, and despite the increasing high cloud cover, and this increase should translate to the surface as well. Therefore, expect a pretty mild February day out there, with most locations seeing day time highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Coastal areas will be the coolest in the lower to mid 60s. Meanwhile, the warmest temperatures will be in the Salinas Valley and up into South Bay.
As the moisture plume re-establishes itself across the North Bay Monday evening, light warm advection rain will redevelop. Expect rain and gusty winds to develop across the region, spreading from north to south Monday night and into Tuesday. Rain will linger across the region through Wednesday. At this point in time, it really looks like more beneficial rain for the region. North Bay will see the brunt of the rainfall, with between 0.5 and 1.5 inches possible, with upwards over 2.5 inches in the coastal range. Across the Bay Area proper, expect amounts to be between 0.25 and 0.66 inches. As you come even farther south to the Monterey Bay, a quarter inch or less is possible. Palmer
, Issued at 122 PM PST Sun Feb 22 2026 (This evening through Monday)
Not much change from the prior forecast, as the first round of rain showers traverse cross the North Bay. Rainfall amounts so far, as of 12:30pm range from 0.0-0.17" for the valleys of Sonoma County and between 0.15-0.55" for the mountains with the higher amounts being found across the coastal side. Showers will linger through at least the evening hours, before lifting north into Eureka's service area overnight hours. Showers may skirt by the North Bay on Monday, but the more likely scenario is that rain holds off until late Monday evening or into the overnight hours. That means much of the region will be left with partly to mostly cloudy skies and temperatures in the 60s for most of the region, perhaps the low 70s for the valleys of the South Bay and interior Central Coast.
..issued at 122 PM PST Sun Feb 22 2026 (Monday night through next Saturday)
The bulk of the rain will arrive on Tuesday, as a surface low sets up and taps into moisture from the southwest/tropics. This will bring periods of rain and gusty winds on Tuesday, with chances for rain dwindling late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. PWATs across the region look to be between 1.2-1.4", which combined with orographic lift may lead to some heavier bands of rain and nuisance flooding across the North Bay or San Francisco Peninsula and into the Santa Cruz Mountains. Valleys may be rainshadow a bit in these regions, with rainfall amounts decreasing as you move south and into the Central Coast. In terms of thunderstorm chances, they look to be null as CAPE is either extremely low or zero depending on the model, and lapse rates are stable.
As we begin to dry out on Wednesday, upper level ridging builds in from the south and will take hold of the forecast. A warming and drying trend begins on Thursday and continues into the weekend. Ensembles show ridging holding, but a low developing in the Eastern Pacific, perhaps trying skirt over or push it eastward by the beginning of March. PoP chances are low, but still reflect that non zero, more like 10-20% chance of rain. The CPC outlook for this period favors the drier scenario with leaning below normal (33-50%) chances for rain and likely above normal (60-80%) chances for above normal temperatures.
(06z TAFS) Issued at 929 PM PST Sun Feb 22 2026
It's VFR with exception of low clouds /MVFR-IFR/ and light rain across northwestern Sonoma County. Forecast is near persistence tonight with a drying trend returning to Sonoma County Monday then rain redevelops over the North Bay and spreads southward Monday night and Tuesday.
Vicinity of SFO, VFR. Light southwest wind becoming light southeasterly to easterly tonight and Monday. Light southwest wind redevelops Monday night with light rain developing.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals, VFR. Winds southeasterly 5 to 10 knots tonight and Monday morning. Winds shifting to onshore 5 to 10 knots Monday afternoon.
(tonight through next Saturday) Issued at 925 PM PST Sun Feb 22 2026
Southerly winds and seas diminish across the coastal waters except across the far northwestern waters. Rain chances continue across the northern waters then spread farther south Monday night through Tuesday night. Winds and seas increase Tuesday then ease by Wednesday. Dry weather prevails late this week.
Ca, None. PZ, Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
