, Issued at 233 PM PST Mon Nov 9 2026 (This evening through Tuesday night)
Upper level ridging prevails over the West Coast (and most of the United States) heading into Tuesday. Expect foggy conditions to develop across the North Bay Valleys, along the San Francisco and San Pablo Bayshores and bays, the delta, and potentially the interior East Bay Valleys. The conditions are favorable for fog to develop again tonight with decent moisture and good overnight radiational cooling thanks to a lack of mid/high level clouds. Bayshore locations and any mariners on the San Francisco/San Pablo Bays or the Delta should be prepared for fog, likely dense, to develop early Tuesday morning. If driving, remember to slow down and allow extra time to reach your destination. If boating in fog, turn on all running lights, slow down, and listen for any other boats that may be nearby. As of 1PM Monday, visibilities are still struggling to improve along portions of the bay shoreline from this morning's fog. Tomorrow will likely be similar with reduced visibilities and patchy fog persisting into the late morning/early afternoon hours.
Despite early morning fog, high temperatures will warm back into the 70s across the interior and 60s to 70s along the coast by Tuesday afternoon. This is brought to us by persistent upper level ridging over the Western US and 850 mb temperatures around 12-16 C. While pleasantly warm, these temperatures are around 10 degrees above normal for this time of year. Morning low temperatures remain in the 50s with slightly cooler lows in the 40s across the North Bay. While the high temperatures don't make it feel like winter is coming, there is a pattern change expected late week into the weekend.
..issued at 233 PM PST Mon Nov 9 2026 (Wednesday through next Sunday)
Upper level ridging and above normal temperatures continue Wednesday and Thursday. High temperatures remain in the 70s on Wednesday across the interior but trend cooler on Thursday (dropping into the 60s to low 70s). Coastal areas remain constant in the 60s to low 70s. Unsettled weather returns Friday and brings with it a host of topics to discuss. Upper level ridging will be replaced by a deep upper level trough pushing into the West Coast. Temperatures will cool, becoming more seasonal to seasonally cool. Interior highs will be in the mid to upper 60s Friday/Saturday before dropping into the low 60s Sunday/Monday. Coastal areas will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Overnight lows will cool as well with high temperatures gradually dropping into the 40s to upper 30s across the region.
Initially it looked as though we could see rain as early as Wednesday/Thursday but those chances have evaporated - thanks to a cutoff low splitting from the main trough and pushing into Southern California and avoiding us. Rain chances now increase Friday into the weekend with beneficial rain expected across the Bay Area and Central Coast. The active period looks to continue well past Monday with ensemble guidance highlighting many additional troughs/rounds of rain arriving during the second half of the month. No major flooding concerns are expected with this weekend's storm but that may change over the next few weeks if we do see several rounds of storms over a short time frame. There is even a low (5-12%) chance of thunderstorms this weekend as the bulk of the rain moves in. Gusty winds (30-40 mph) are likely as the front passes. The current forecast stays below Wind Advisory criteria but that will be something to keep an eye on as we head closer to the weekend. Now would be a good time to secure any outdoor decorations or bring in any outdoor furniture. If you have any other winter/rain preparations to do (i.e. clearing your gutters, power outage prep, trimming tree limbs) make sure to do it before Friday.
Hazardous beach conditions return late week into the weekend as long period NW swell and large breaking waves. The current forecast has wave heights between 18 to 22 feet across the outer waters which will bring hazardous conditions for mariners. Beachgoers will also experience hazardous conditions due to large breaking waves, sneaker waves, and strong rip currents. This is not a good weekend to go to the beach.
(00z TAFS) Issued at 437 PM PST Mon Nov 9 2026
Quiet weather and VFR conditions prevail this afternoon, with satellite imagery showing high clouds overhead. Expect these conditions to continue through the evening hours and early overnight hours before another round of fog and low clouds return. Models seem to be in agreement with widespread LIFR to IFR vis for KSTS, KOAK, and KSJC with some uncertainty for interior sites like KAPC and even KSFO. Fog may begin developing as early 06-07Z for STS and then last until roughly 17-19Z. For KOAK and KSJC develop looks to occur a little later, closer to 10Z and likely faltering to LIFR around sunrise. Fog and low clouds should erode near between 17-19Z leading to another VFR afternoon.
Vicinity of SFO, No major deviations from the prior TAF set as it appears to have captured the timing of any fog and low cloud development. Uncertainty remains if KSFO will fall below IFR vis/cigs, closer to quarter mile fog but there are signs of it. Hi- res guidance is split, with the more bullish models being the HRRR, REFS, and RRFS putting up to ranging 30-60% from 10-15Z. Clearing of any reduced vis or cig is expected by 19-20Z. Then VFR conditions prevail.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO. Fog and low cloud look to develop around the Bay tonight, which should lead to LIFR to IFR cigs and vis. Development looks develop on the east side and gradually spreading around/across the rest of the Bay. Clearing should start occur around 17-18, with VFR conditions expected by 19- 20Z.
Monterey Bay Terminals, Onshore flow will continue for the evening, before weak offshore flow returns to the forecast. This should be enough to keep both KMRY and KSNS VFR overnight, though some guidance a few hours of IFR cigs/vis possible at KSNS again. Kept the hint at any development in the TAF, with the return of onshore flow by the afternoon.
(tonight through next Saturday) Issued at 233 PM PST Mon Nov 9 2026
Rough to very rough seas will persist through this evening, beginning to gradually subside overnight through the middle of the week with moderate to fresh northerly breezes. Sea state will become dynamic once again by the second half of the work week into next weekend with long period west/northwest swell up to 18 seconds late in the forecast period.
Issued at 330 AM PST Mon Nov 9 2026
Beach Hazards Statement:
Beach Hazard Statement remains in effect. Latest buoy obs show the moderate swell and moderate period continue to produce an energetic surf zone. As such, large shore break, sneaker waves, and stronger rip currents will be possible. Breaking waves of 12 to 16 feet are expected at exposed beaches and up to 18 ft at favored break point. Spring tides will also increase the currents and bring higher tides than normal. Waves can sweep across the shoreline without warning, pulling people into the sea from beaches, jetties, and rocks. Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure. Remain out of the water if you're not an experienced swimmer to avoid hazardous surf and never turn your back on the ocean! There may be a lull in wave activity midweek, but longer range forecasts show additional swells impacting the coast next weekend.
Coastal Flood Advisory:
A combination of high astronomical tides and thermal expansion from warmer than normal water will result in tidal flooding concerns across Bayshore locations in the San Francisco, San Pablo, and Monterey Bays. At the San Francisco tide gauge, high tide is expected to be 1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 10:35 AM Monday 11/9, 1.5 ft above normal (7.3 ft MLLW) at 11:04 AM Tuesday 11/10, 1.4 ft above normal (7.2 ft MLLW) at 11:35 AM Wednesday 11/11, 1.4 ft above normal (7.2 ft MLLW) at 12:10 PM Thursday 11/12, 1.2 ft above normal (7.0 ft MLLW) at 12:49 PM Friday 11/13. These predictions include up to 1.5 ft of surge that will enhance the astronomical tide and flooding threat. High tide varies up to 90 minutes earlier or later along the Pacific Coast and through the San Francisco Bay, respectively. In addition, long-period swell will create hazardous conditions along the Pacific coast beaches with an increased risk of sneaker waves and rip currents.
These Spring Tides are due to a new moon on Monday, which is much lower in the sky this time of year compared to a full moon. In 2 weeks, the astronomical tides will be about 0.8' higher than this round, and the total water level could be more than a foot higher if we get SW winds and/or lower pressure. This combination would bring the total water level near the 1% annual exceedance probability (2.85' above normal), or a 1 in 100 year event. Something to keep an eye on for the week of Thanksgiving.
Sarment/Flynn/MM
Ca, Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM PST this evening for CAZ006- 505-509-529-530.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM PST Friday for CAZ006-506-508- 530.
Coastal Flood Advisory until noon PST Tuesday for CAZ505-509-529.
PZ, Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for Mry Bay- Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
