, Issued at 122 PM PST Sun Feb 22 2026 (This evening through Monday)
Not much change from the prior forecast, as the first round of rain showers traverse cross the North Bay. Rainfall amounts so far, as of 12:30pm range from 0.0-0.17" for the valleys of Sonoma County and between 0.15-0.55" for the mountains with the higher amounts being found across the coastal side. Showers will linger through at least the evening hours, before lifting north into Eureka's service area overnight hours. Showers may skirt by the North Bay on Monday, but the more likely scenario is that rain holds off until late Monday evening or into the overnight hours. That means much of the region will be left with partly to mostly cloudy skies and temperatures in the 60s for most of the region, perhaps the low 70s for the valleys of the South Bay and interior Central Coast.
..issued at 122 PM PST Sun Feb 22 2026 (Monday night through next Saturday)
The bulk of the rain will arrive on Tuesday, as a surface low sets up and taps into moisture from the southwest/tropics. This will bring periods of rain and gusty winds on Tuesday, with chances for rain dwindling late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. PWATs across the region look to be between 1.2-1.4", which combined with orographic lift may lead to some heavier bands of rain and nuisance flooding across the North Bay or San Francisco Peninsula and into the Santa Cruz Mountains. Valleys may be rainshadow a bit in these regions, with rainfall amounts decreasing as you move south and into the Central Coast. In terms of thunderstorm chances, they look to be null as CAPE is either extremely low or zero depending on the model, and lapse rates are stable.
As we begin to dry out on Wednesday, upper level ridging builds in from the south and will take hold of the forecast. A warming and drying trend begins on Thursday and continues into the weekend. Ensembles show ridging holding, but a low developing in the Eastern Pacific, perhaps trying skirt over or push it eastward by the beginning of March. PoP chances are low, but still reflect that non zero, more like 10-20% chance of rain. The CPC outlook for this period favors the drier scenario with leaning below normal (33-50%) chances for rain and likely above normal (60-80%) chances for above normal temperatures.
(18z TAFS) Issued at 941 AM PST Sun Feb 22 2026
Moderate to high confidence for VFR conditions to prevail at most terminals throughout the TAF period. The exception is at KSTS where MVFR conditions are occuring as a result of light rain through about 21Z when we expect conditions to return to VFR. However, there is only moderate confidence for KSTS to return to VFR before lowering to MVFR late tonight and into Monday morning. Otherwise, southerly winds won't be as gusty as yesterday with onshore flow most likely to return to the Monterey Bay terminals this afternoon. Winds ease overnight and into early Monday morning before increasing once again by Monday afternoon.
Vicinity of SFO, VFR. Mid-to-high level clouds will persist across the region through much of the TAF period. Winds increase a bit late this morning and into the early afternoon, yet are forecast to remain out of a southerly direction.
SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals, VFR. Mid-to-high level clouds will persist across the region through much of the TAF period. Onshore winds are forecast to return by this afternoon and continue at times through the evening. Winds ease after sunset and become light southerly during the overnight before southerly winds increase early Monday morning at KSNS.
(today through Friday) Issued at 941 AM PST Sun Feb 22 2026
Southerly winds will diminish and seas will subside through the day. Rain chances continue across the northern waters today, then spread farther south Monday night through Tuesday night. Winds and seas increase Tuesday then begin to ease by Wednesday of the upcoming week.
Ca, None. PZ, Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST this afternoon for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
