Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Francisco CA

437 am PDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Synopsis

Issued at 115 PM PDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Cool and calm conditions prevail. Warm temperatures inland, but still near seasonal normals. Slight warming trend inland mid next week. Dry conditions persist across high terrain, leading to elevated grass fire danger.

Short Term

, (Today and tonight) Issued at 327 AM PDT Sun Jun 15 2025

No significant change to the forecast, with persistence carrying through at least today into early Monday before a subtle pattern change takes shape in the form of a slightly deepening trough approaching from the west Monday afternoon. Weak shortwave H50 rises today out ahead of the approaching trough will result in another respite of June Gloom for most locations with patchy low stratus lingering across the San Mateo coastline into the Bay area this afternoon. With the steadier, increasing fetch of onshore flow getting closer late tonight we'll see more widespread marine layer stratus develop by early Monday morning.

Long Term

..(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 327 AM PDT Sun Jun 15 2025

The aforementioned subtle pattern change will see shortwave ridging on the backside of the weak trough passing across our area Monday, helping to lift temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday slightly above normal. The brief warm up will through the middle of the week will see temperatures return to mostly normal for the end of the week as another trough is positioned to our west. A secondary, deeper and sharper trough next weekend may bring gusty winds and a potential increase in fire (grassland) weather concerns through the remainder of the extended forecast.

Aviation

(12z TAFS) Issued at 437 AM PDT Sun Jun 15 2025

A few areas of coastal stratus /MVFR-LIFR/ continue to develop otherwise it's VFR. Onshore winds prevail during the 12z TAF cycle. Coastal stratus redeveloping tonight and Monday morning.

Vicinity of SFO, VFR today and tonight until MVFR stratus ceiling developing 10z Monday morning. Northwest to west wind 5 to 10 knots this morning, increasing to 18 to 24 knots in the afternoon and early evening. Gusty west wind developing Monday.

SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals, Coastal stratus /IFR-LIFR/ developing this morning, then mixing out by late morning. Stratus /IFR/ redeveloping tonight and Monday morning. Onshore winds 5 to 15 knots.

Marine

(today through Friday) Issued at 327 AM PDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Surface high pressure will support a fresh to strong northwest breeze occasionally approaching gale force across the coastal waters with moderate seas through mid-week. An eastward passing upper level trough combining with a strengthening onshore pressure gradient will result in gusty onshore winds across the bays Monday afternoon and evening.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Ca, None. PZ, Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Monday for Mry Bay.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT Monday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

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