Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Francisco CA

945 pm PDT Thu jul 2 2026

Short Term

, Issued at 1257 PM PDT Thu Jul 2 2026 (This evening through Friday night)

Aside from a few high clouds, skies will be mostly clear through early this evening across the area, except along the coast where stratus will persist. The marine layer will remain intact tonight with little change from last night. Light onshore flow will allow stratus to fill back in across the valleys once again overnight into Friday morning.

The upper level trough that has been in place over the last few days will start to weaken on Friday. This will allow temperatures inland to climb 3 to 6 degrees from today as 500 mb heights rise and temperatures warm aloft. Along the coast, the marine layer and a light onshore breeze will keep temperatures nearly constant from today. Highs along the coast will be in the upper 50s to 60s, 60s to 70s along the SF Bay shoreline and coastal valleys, and 80s to around 90 in the interior. These temperatures will result in Minor HeatRisk in most areas. Clouds will clear back to the coast by early afternoon, where they will linger. Onshore winds will gust 15 to 25 mph, locally up to 30 mph in gaps/passes. Low clouds will then fill back in through the valleys Friday night.

Long Term

..issued at 1257 PM PDT Thu Jul 2 2026 (Saturday through next Wednesday)

An upper level ridge will build to the east on Saturday, bringing another degree or two of warming from Friday. Overall, conditions will be typical of early July. The marine layer will remain in place, bringing cloudy conditions in the morning with clearing back to the coast in the afternoon. Skies away from the coast will be mostly sunny with an onshore breeze in the afternoon and evening, gusting to around 15 to 25 mph. Stratus will begin its inland advance in the evening.

Another upper level trough will move onto the coast Sunday through Tuesday. This will reverse the warming trend and bring a few degrees of cooling, placing temperatures slightly below normal. Otherwise, the day-to-day trend will be very similar to previous days. The marine layer will provide low clouds each night and morning, clearing back to the coast each day. Onshore winds will remain breezy. By midweek, ensembles are in agreement about the trough weakening, allowing temperatures to warm. The degree of warming is uncertain, but favors a few degrees warmer each day, especially in interior areas. HeatRisk is currently favored to remain Minor, but by Thursday features a 10-30% chance of Moderate in inland areas.

Aviation

(06z TAFS) Issued at 945 PM PDT Thu Jul 2 2026 The stratus is filling in as expected this evening and is generally coming in a few hundred feet lower than yesterday at this time. This may bring some more IFR conditions tonight. Clouds are expected to push back to the coast again Friday afternoon much like today. Onshore west/southwest winds will increase once again Friday afternoon, becoming breezy at the usual wind-prone terminals, although in general they look slightly lighter than today. Stratus will redevelop overnight with the return of MVFR/IFR ceilings to some terminals. Ceilings may continue to lower Friday night as high pressure builds in.

Vicinity of SFO, Tonight generally expect conditions to be persistent and skies to remain VFR. However there is a 30 percent chance of clouds below 2000 feet briefly towards morning. VFR along with breezy west/southwest winds are expected in the afternoon. Friday night the probability of CIGS returning at SFO increase to around 50 percent.

SFO Bridge Approach, Similar to SFO.

Vicinity of SJC and OAK, Stratus has started to develop in the hills east of KOAK and this is expected to spread down into the terminal again tonight. These may drop into IFR category towards morning. VFR conditions are expected to return in the morning along with the typical west to southwest winds. For SJC, drainage southeast winds through around 21Z, then becoming northwest. Redevelopment of MVFR or IFR ceilings at OAK is likely again Friday night.

Monterey Bay Terminals, MVFR Ceilings have returned and these may drop for a period of time to IFR towards morning. Gusty onshore winds are expected to return in the afternoon with skies becoming VFR late morning or midday again. The stratus is expected to return quickly again Friday evening and could come in IFR or close to it.

Marine

(tonight through next Wednesday) Issued at 917 PM PDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Northwest winds will remain breezy to gusty across the northern outer waters through early Saturday while winds ease across the rest of the waters. Seas will abate to become moderate to rough today and Friday. Winds and seas look to build again into the middle of the next work week.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Ca, None. PZ, Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

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