, Issued at 1157 PM PDT Thu Oct 8 2026 (Tonight through Saturday)
Coastal stratus will be on the increase tonight and Friday morning. The onshore SFO-SAC pressure gradient has increased to 2.5 mb. Strong thermal ridging aloft, a compressed marine layer combining with daily solar input resulting in well above normal October temperatures has essentially reached its peak. Inland daytime high temperatures will still be warm Friday, but closer to 30 year (1991-2020) normal highs for October 9th.
Later Friday, Friday night and especially Saturday northwest winds will result in cold air advection. A major pattern shift will usher in strong upper level troughing i.e. much cooler air arriving here Saturday. The marine layer lower level temperature inversion will fully erode Saturday allowing plenty of vertical mixing. This pattern shift will bring a noticeable cool down, especially for inland areas.
..issued at 1157 PM PDT Thu Oct 8 2026 (Saturday night through next Thursday)
Much cooler air from the surface to aloft continues to arrive Sunday. The strong cold core 500 mb low will sweep southward over our coastal waters with land overlap, resulting in gusty winds over the coastal waters and areas of gusty winds over land as well over the weekend. There's limited moisture availability with the low arriving from the north and a solid southerly push of drier air and lower precipitable water values on the back side of the low will mainly influence our forecast area over the weekend and early next week. The depth of cold air with the low of course will be passing over increasing sea surface temperatures as it moves south, which may produce showers over the southern forecast area early next week. 500 mb high pressure ridging will then move in from the west with dry weather and an uptrend back to near mid October normal temperatures.
(12z TAFS) Issued at 446 AM PDT Fri Oct 9 2026
Currently LIFR-VFR with LIFR-IFR stratus continuing to expand to bayshore terminals. With the exception of the coastal terminals of HAF, MRY, and SNS, high confidence in VFR this afternoon. Onshore winds will increase through the day and remain elevated overnight. An optimistic persistence forecast is on tap tonight. Reasonable best case scenario is an incoming cold front lifts ceilings or mixes them out completely.
Vicinity of SFO, Currently VFR with westerly flow. Moderate confidence in VFR prevailing through the TAF period. Stratus is surrounding the terminal from the north, but the compressed marine layer will likely be able to prevent it from penetrating the San Bruno Gap. Stratus will likely remain through the Golden Gate Gap even after it retreats around 18Z this morning. Westerly winds will increase through the morning and become gusty this afternoon. Winds will back to become southwesterly this evening before returning to westerly mid-morning tomorrow. Greater probability for stratus return tonight, but still only moderate at best. While the marine layer will deepen, stronger than normal winds and a dry cold front should help preclude stratus development.
SFO Bridge Approach, A patch of IFR stratus is developing over NUQ, it'll likely continue to expand to the northwest towards SFO and to the southeast towards SJC. Conditions will begin to improve by 16Z with VFR expected by 19Z.
Monterey Bay Terminals, Currently LIFR with southwesterly flow at MRY and LIFR with westerly flow at SNS. Moderate to high confidence in LIFR conditions prevailing through mid-to-late morning. While ceilings will likely lift on the cusp of IFR/MVFR, low to moderate confidence on VFR being achieved this afternoon. Moderate confidence on LIFR conditions returning tonight; however, reasonable best case scenario is the approaching cold front lifts ceilings or mixes them out completely.
(today through Wednesday) Issued at 446 AM PDT Fri Oct 9 2026
Strong northerly breezes will spread into the northern waters this morning with frequent gale force gusts expected by tonight. Widespread hazardous conditions are expected by Saturday morning through at least Sunday morning as strong to near gale northwesterly breezes spread across the waters and build rough to very rough seas. Long period southerly swell arriving today will collide with long period northwesterly swell Sunday, creating a confused sea state. Conditions will improve by Monday night as northerly breezes diminish to become gentle to moderate and seas subside to become moderate.
Issued at 446 AM PDT Fri Oct 9 2026
Hazardous beach conditions will be present at Pacific Coast beaches Saturday through Monday. Long period southerly swell from distant Tropical Storm Rachel will build in height through the weekend, bringing an increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents. Long period westerly swell from a gale force low in the Central North Pacific will arrive Sunday, bringing breaking waves up to 16 feet. The large tidal swings will also result in coastal erosion as water and waves are brought farther up the beach than normal, especially during high tide. Remain off jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure as waves can sweep across the shoreline without warning, pulling people into the sea. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf and strong rip currents and never turn your back on the ocean!
Sarment
Ca, Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 3 PM PDT Tuesday for CAZ006-508-529-530.
Beach Hazards Statement from Saturday morning through Monday afternoon for CAZ006-505-509-529-530.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM PDT Wednesday for CAZ506.
PZ, Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 9 AM PDT Sunday for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Saturday to 9 AM PDT Sunday for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.
Gale Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM PDT Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Saturday to 9 AM PDT Sunday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.
