Breezy easterly trade winds will persist through tonight, then ease into the light to moderate range from Thursday through Saturday. Clouds and showers will favor windward and mauka areas, with a period of increased shower activity possible through early Thursday as a band of moisture moves through the islands. A few afternoon clouds and showers may develop over interior and leeward areas Thursday through Saturday where localized sea breezes form. Trade winds are expected to strengthen again late this weekend and into early next week.
High pressure north of the islands will sustain moderate to locally breezy ENE trade winds today and then decrease a little later tonight. An area of enhanced moisture over the eastern half of the state will continue to bring MVFR showers to Big Island and Maui windward areas today and could spread to the other islands later today and tonight at a lesser extent. MVFR conditions are expected within showers, while VFR prevails elsewhere.
AIRMET Sierra is in effect for windward Oahu, Maui, Molokai, and the Big Island due to frequent shower activity causing mountain obscuration. These conditions are expected to generally continue through today.
Surface ridge north of the area will hold today maintaining moderate to locally fresh trades. The ridge will weaken Thursday through Saturday as a front passes far north of the state. Trades will ease into the light to moderate category during this time. Fresh to locally strong easterly trades will return Sunday through early next week.
A series of southern hemisphere swells will continue through the rest of the week with a large south swell due to arrive this weekend into early next week. Currently, a small, medium-period south swell is fading. Near seasonal average surf along south facing shores will gradually decline today through Thursday. A smaller pulse of south- southwest swells will fill in late Thursday into Friday keeping surf elevated along south facing shores.
Long-period energy from a storm that passed within our swell window around New Zealand earlier this week is expected to gradually fill in locally through the weekend. Wave models have this swell peaking Sunday into Monday that will likely drive surf heights near or above warning level. This swell will coincide with the peak monthly tides and will likely lead to significant wave runup and minor coastal flooding during the first half of next week, particularly during the peak daily high tide cycles.
A small west-northwest swell will fade today into Thursday. East shore surf will slowly decline below seasonal averages through the rest of the week as trades ease.
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