Light to moderate trades will persist through the weekend, bringing clouds and shower activity to windward and mauka locations. Winds may be light enough to develop localized land and sea breezes, where afternoon shower activity may move over interior and leeward areas. Trades are expected to then strengthening again late this weekend into early next week.
Moisture-laden trades will continue to move across the Hawaiian Islands this morning, responsible for allocating isolated to scattered showers across windward and mauka areas through the afternoon, increasing to scattered to numerous overnight into tomorrow morning. Shower coverage will decrease thereafter as drier conditions succumb the state, expected to persist through the weekend.
As the subtropical ridge overhead slowly begins to weaken and slide northeastward, trades will respond, gradually easing through the remainder of the week. This will open the doors for localized land and sea breeze development through the weekend, introducing leeward and interior afternoon clouds and showers during the afternoon hours, followed by overnight clearing. However, given the lack of moisture available, shower activity during this time will likely remain light and short-lived.
Model guidance continues to support the return of light to moderate trades early next week as a strengthening surface ridge builds north of the island chain. Additionally, model guidance showcases bands of moisture arriving from the east of the Hawaiian Islands. leading to periodic upticks in shower activity across windward and mauka areas as early as Sunday night and prevailing through the latter end of next week.
Trade winds will ease slightly over the next couple of days as a surface ridge north of the islands weakens. Low cigs and SHRA expected along windward and mauka locations. MVFR conds possible otherwise VFR prevails.
AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mtn obsc for windward locations of Oahu to the Big Island. Conds should improve later this morning.
High pressure far north of the area will weaken and move east as a front passes by north of the islands. This will cause trade winds to weaken into the the gentle to moderate category with localized land and sea breezes through Saturday. Fresh to locally strong easterly trades will return Sunday through early next week as the surface ridges strengthens north of the state.
A small pulse of south- southwest swell will fill in today into Friday keeping near average surf along south facing shores.
Long-period energy from a storm that passed within our swell window around New Zealand earlier this week is expected to gradually fill in locally late Friday through the weekend. The peak of this storm had seas near 55 feet, and current guidance has this swell peaking Sunday into Monday that will drive surf heights near warning levels. The swell is hitting the Samoa Buoy this morning, so increased confidence in the size of the swell is expected later today as the swell fills in further there. This swell will also coincide with the peak monthly tides and will likely lead to significant wave runup and minor coastal flooding during the first half of next week, particularly during the peak daily high tide cycles. A marine weather statement is also anticipated due to the threat of harbor surges. South shore surf will then remain elevated through much of next week due to the slow decline of this large south swell and a series of more overlapping southerly swells.
East shore surf will slowly decline below seasonal averages through the the weekend as trades ease, then pick up a notch next week as more breezy trades return. No significant swells expected elsewhere.
None.
