A high pressure system far north of the Hawaiian Islands will slowly drift east, however a broad ridge north of the region will remain in place keeping easterly trade winds in the forecast into the weekend. An upper level trough approaching the islands today will deepen into an upper low near Kauai by Tuesday, leading to increasing cloud and shower trends across the region through the week. Shower activity will favor windward mountain areas in the overnight to early morning hours with brief periods of showers drifting into leeward areas.
Issued at 335 AM HST Mon Apr 27 2026
Moderate trades will continue through the period. Intermittent MVFR is possible across windward sites due to low cigs and showers, but VFR conditions are broadly anticipated. Shower activity may ramp up starting around sunset as an upper level system moves toward the islands.
No AIRMETs are in effect, however a mountain obscuration AIRMET may be needed if low clouds become more widespread due to oncoming shower activity.
Issued at 335 AM HST Mon Apr 27 2026
Moderate to fresh easterly trades will continue through Tuesday, then strengthen by midweek as a weak trough shifts to the west and the ridge builds north of the state. This will likely correspond to Small Craft Advisory winds across the typically windier waters surrounding Maui County and the Big Island beginning by Wednesday.
Surf along exposed north- and west-facing shores will gradually ease into Tuesday as a northwest swell lowers. An upward trend is expected during the second half of the week as swell generated by a broad low that has lifted north into the Bering Sea near the Date Line reaches the islands. Looking further ahead, confidence remains lower due to model differences, but some guidance continues to suggest a more potent storm evolving over the far northwest Pacific over the next couple of days. If this scenario materializes, a longer-period northwest swell could arrive by the weekend, with surf heights potentially approaching advisory-levels along exposed north and west facing shores.
Surf along south-facing shores will remain small through much of the week, with mainly background south to southwest swell expected. Another south-southwest pulse may arrive by this weekend from recent activity within our swell window east of New Zealand.
Surf along east-facing shores will remain relatively small and choppy due through midweek, with a slight rise possible later in the week as trades strengthen.
None.
