Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Honolulu Hi

909 am hst Thu Jun 25 2026

Synopsis

Moderate to breezy trade winds can be expected through the weekend and likely into the first half of next week, pushing showers over mostly windward and mountain areas. These showers will be more active during the night time and early morning hours. A mid level and upper level trough could occasionally allow some of these showers to be a little heavier than normal.

Aviation

Issued at 306 AM HST Thu Jun 25 2026

Moderate to breezy trades are expected through the forecast period. Low clouds and showers will favor windward and mauka areas. Expect MVFR conditions within showers and VFR elsewhere.

AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mountain obscurations for windward sections of the Big Island. Conditions may linger into the morning due to the ongoing and upstream showers. The mountain obscurations for the Kona slopes have been cancelled due to conditions improving overnight.

AIRMET Tango is in effect for moderate turbulence downwind of terrain due to the breezy trade winds and will continue overnight.

Marine

Issued at 306 AM HST Thu Jun 25 2026

High pressure to the north will dominate through at least the first half of next week, keeping moderate to locally strong trade winds in place across Hawaiian waters. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect for the typically windier waters around Maui and the Big Island. Although the SCA goes through Friday afternoon, it will likely be extended through the weekend.

A long period south swell will peak today with head high to overhead surf heights at most exposed south shore surf breaks, then slowly decrease Friday and Saturday. Another pulse of south swell energy will then arrive on Saturday and peak by Sunday before gradually declining next week.

Surf along east facing shores will remain rough and choppy into the weekend as breezy trades persist. Surf heights along north facing shores will remain small to tiny through the first half of next week.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Friday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Maalaea Bay-Pailolo Channel.

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