A high pressure ridge to the north and Hurricane Lowell passing south of the Hawaiian Islands will keep breezy trade winds in the forecast today. Expect decreasing wind speed trends this weekend as a low pressure trough moving into the Central Pacific basin weakens the ridge north of the state. Periods of showers will favor windward mountain areas with brief passing showers over leeward zones. Hurricane Lowell will remain near major hurricane strength when it moves closer to the western Hawaiian Islands late Monday and Monday night. Weather impacts such as high surf and heavy rain may extend hundreds of miles from the center of Hurricane Lowell.
A breezy and stable trade wind flow will persist into Saturday as Hurricane Lowell passes about 600 miles south to south-southwest of Kauai. AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate low-level turbulence south through west of terrain and will likely remain posted for the same areas through Sunday.
A narrow band of moisture is producing widespread MVFR conditions along windward slopes, where AIRMET Sierra remains in effect for mountain obscuration. Expect improvement this afternoon.
A surface high persists north of the Hawaiian Islands and will slowly drift east through the weekend. Currently, Hurricane Lowell is passing near 500 nm south of the islands as it continues to track west. The interaction between the two has strengthened the trade winds across the coastal waters to fresh to locally near gale force. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is in effect for all coastal waters through Saturday and will likely be extended.
Hurricane Lowell is expected to turn northward this weekend, confidence is growing for hurricane conditions in the offshore waters west of 160W on Sunday through potentially Tuesday. How close it gets to the state, is yet to be determined. As for Hurricane Karina it is expected to weaken and pass to the north and northeast of the state.
Swells from Hurricane Lowell are filling in and will remain elevated above High Surf Advisory (HSA) conditions through Saturday. A large, medium-period east swell from Hurricane Karina is filling in and will continue though the weekend, producing HSA level surf along east facing shores. The HSA is in effect for all south and east facing shores of all islands as well as the west facing shores of the Big Island.
The swell from Lowell will gradually veer from south to southwest early next week. While the forecast for swells and seas for next week will highly depend on the eventual track and intensity of Lowell, confidence is beginning to increase for the potential of extra- large surf (exceeding warning levels) along south and western exposures early next week. Coinciding also with monthly high tides, this will create the potential for impacts to harbor entrances, channels, as well as coastal properties and infrastructure including roadways.
High Surf Advisory until 6 AM HST Saturday for Big Island East- Big Island North-Big Island South-Big Island Southeast-East Honolulu-Ewa Plain-Honolulu Metro-Kahoolawe-Kauai East-Kauai South-Kauai Southwest-Kipahulu-Kona-Koolau Windward-Lanai Leeward-Lanai South-Maui Central Valley South-Maui Leeward West- Molokai Leeward South-Molokai Southeast-Molokai West-Molokai Windward-Niihau-Olomana-South Haleakala-South Maui/Upcountry- Waianae Coast-Windward Haleakala.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Saturday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Big Island Windward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Kauai Channel-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters- Maalaea Bay-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maui County Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters-Pailolo Channel.
