A plume of moisture associated with now Tropical Storm Pena well south of the islands brought heavy rainfall to windward areas of the Big Island. While the deepest moisture has shifted off to the west, expect enhanced clouds and showers to continue into Saturday morning favoring Maui and Hawaii Counties. A second tropical disturbance will pass to the south of the state early next week, possibly enhancing shower activity to southern portions of the Big Island. The next best chance for increasing statewide shower chances arrives late next week.
Moderate to locally breezy trade winds will persist through the period. Pockets of higher moisture riding in on the trades will guarantee occasional lower decks falling to low VFR or MVFR cats along with more frequent windward showers especially at Hilo (PHTO). Most airfields will encounter periods of overnight into early morning quick passing showers. Better organized rain clusters passing over windward terminals will produce more frequent periods of MVFR in both lowered ceiling and visibility. Conditions will being to slowly improve tomorrow as drier air moves in from the east.
AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mountain obscuration across windward Big Island, Maui, Molokai and Oahu. Sierra will likely remain in place through the night.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate turbulence within the lee of higher terrain the next few days.
Issued at 342 PM HST Fri Nov 6 2026 Fresh to strong trade winds with periods of near gales in the channels will prevail through the weekend as high pressure persists north of the state. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in place for all Hawaiian Waters due to a combination of winds and elevated seas through Saturday night. The SCA will likely remain in place through at least Sunday night as Tropical Storm Pena passes several hundred miles to the south and keeps the local pressure gradient tight. Winds are expected to ease slightly late Monday and Tuesday as the ridge to our north erodes and Pena moves away to the southwest. The SCA will likely be trimmed back to the typical windy waters around Big Island and Maui at that time. Trade winds are expected to strengthen again on Wednesday.
A north-northwest swell will continue a slow decline through Saturday, and surf along exposed north and west facing shores has fallen below High Surf Advisory thresholds. A reinforcing medium- period energy out of the north-northwest (325 to 340 degree) should arrive late Saturday into Sunday. Surf should reach advisory thresholds during the peak of the swell Sunday morning. Another large northwest to north-northwest swell is Wednesday or Thursday.
A small south-southwest swell should produce surf slightly above seasonal average through Saturday. A tiny pulse from the south- southeast may maintain south shore surf near seasonal average Sunday and Monday, followed by background level surf through the remainder of the week.
Rough surf along east-facing shores will hold around seasonal average through much of the week. Select northeast exposures should see long- period energy from the declining north-northwest swell into tonight.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Sunday for all Hawaiian coastal waters and channels.
