Clouds will be on the increase the next couple of days with scattered showers as winds come around to a southerly direction and direct higher moisture over the islands. The pattern will undergo a more windy and wet change this weekend as a front travels across the islands from the west. The associated upper low will dig down west of the island chain through the week and be the impetus to more frequent rain that may become locally heavy, strong winds and thunderstorms late Saturday through early next week.
Issued at 355 PM HST Wed Feb 4 2026
Afternoon sea breezes will transition to light offshore land breezes tonight amidst mostly clear skies and scant shower activity. VFR areawide. Emerging SW flow becomes established during Thursday bringing lower VFR cigs and potentially a few passing/isolated leeward showers, most likely in the vicinity of Oahu.
No AIRMETs in effect.
Issued at 355 PM HST Wed Feb 4 2026
Light to moderate southeast to southerly winds are prevailing over the coastal waters this afternoon as high pressure remains over the region. Moderate to locally fresh south to southwest winds are expected to return over the western end of the state on Thursday as the next cold front draws closer. Guidance shows this next front moving into the area late Friday through Saturday with strong to near gale force northeast winds filling in behind it late in the weekend through early next week. Ocean conditions will quickly respond and become rough due to a combination of winds and seas. In addition to the winds and seas, a wet pattern with locally heavy rainfall and potentially a few thunderstorms will accompany this front.
The extra-large northwest swell that has been impacting the islands over the past day or so is beginning to decline, but it is still producing warning-level surf along exposed north and west facing shores. Recent observations from nearshore buoys at Hanalei, Waimea, and Pauwela all show wave heights of around 13 to 15 feet, most of which is from the northwest swell energy with periods in the 13 to 15 second range. Given the latest observations and guidance, the High Surf Warning for north and west facing shores of Niihau, Kauai, Oahu, Molokai, north facing shores of Maui, and west facing shores of the Big Island has been extended through tonight. Surf heights are expected to lower below warning thresholds for impacted shores Thursday as the swell continues to decline. Heights will dip below advisory levels for a brief period Thursday night into Friday, then return to warning levels for exposed coasts Friday night into Saturday due to a fresh northwest swell arriving. The High Surf Advisory for north facing shores of the Big Island has also been extended through tonight, but will likely be dropped thereafter. In addition to the surf, seas greater than 10 feet will continue through tonight as well for waters exposed to the northwest swell. As a result, a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect.
Surf along east facing shores could quickly rise and become rough this weekend, with heights potentially nearing the warning level during the peak by Monday. Surf along south facing shores will remain small throughout the forecast period.
High Surf Warning until 6 AM HST Thursday for Kauai North-Kauai Southwest-Kohala-Kona-Maui Central Valley North-Maui Windward West-Molokai North-Molokai West-Molokai Windward-Niihau-Oahu North Shore-Waianae Coast-Windward Haleakala.
High Surf Advisory until 6 AM HST Thursday for Big Island East- Big Island North.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Thursday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Windward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Kauai Channel- Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Maui County Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters.
