Trades will rule for the next week, with a gradual increase in wind speed from the middle of next week into next weekend. Otherwise, expect typical windward and mauka showers, along with Kona showers. Rainfall is expected to be rather light.
Radar shows isolated showers in some windward areas as of mid- afternoon. Satellite shows mostly cloudy skies windward and mauka, with mostly clear skies leeward. Winds were moderate, averaging 10-20 mph with gusts 20 to 25 mph in the usual spots that get breezy in the afternoon during trades (such as Kuaokala, the airport on Molokai, Lahaina, and in the mountains).
A basic trade wind pattern will be with us for the next week. Moderate wind speeds will see a gradual increase beginning in the middle of next week. A slight increase in showers is expected Monday and Tuesday as an area of increased low level moisture moves in from the northeast. Upper level ridging mainly to our northwest with upper level troughing to our northeast will keep us with light NW flow aloft for most of the next seven days.
Of note, the operational GFS continues to show the possibility of a weak upper level trough moving southeast over the area Tuesday into Tuesday night, but this is not the favored solution at this time. If it were to occur, we would see some stronger showers Tuesday into Wednesday due to instability from colder air aloft.
A ridge north of the islands will maintain a moderate to locally breezy trade wind pattern into the weekend. VFR conditions are expected to prevail across the islands. Brief MVFR conditions are possible, primarily in windward areas due to isolated showers. No AIRMETs are in effect, and none are expected for the period.
Trade winds have returned in response to an upper ridge slowly expanding in west northwest of the islands. The associated surface high far northwest of the offshore waters will travel east, pass north of the local waters and be northeast of the area by early next week. This will produce a tight enough pressure gradient across the islands to maintain moderate to locally fresh trade winds for the next several days into next week as another high passes north of the state.
A pair of northern gale lows will send a series of small size north-northwest swells (320-330 degree) into the local waters tonight into the first half of next week. These swells should help maintain near average surf along north-facing shores. A deepening weekend storm low developing near the Aleutian Islands may send a slightly larger northwest swell towards the islands by mid next week.
The current short to medium period north northeast swell (30 degrees) will continue to decline this evening. A small fetch of fresh northeast winds associated with a very weak low northeast of the state could provide a short-lived, short period reinforcing swell into the waters late tonight into tomorrow. Otherwise, average surf is expected along eastern exposures into next week due to the lack of any strong trade wind activity over and upstream of the state.
Small background energy from the west will continues to linger the next few days and will fade out this weekend. A small southwest bump from the Tasman Sea that passed across the American Samoa 51209 buoy Wednesday is expected to arrive early tomorrow. No significant south swell is expected through the first half of next week.
None.
