Moderate trade winds will prevail through tonight, then increase Friday through this weekend. Most shower activity will occur during the nights and early mornings and affect windward and mauka locations. From Saturday afternoon through Monday, an area of tropical moisture will move over the southern half of the state (Big Island and Maui) from east to west and bring enhanced showers. A typical stable trade wind pattern will return by Tuesday of next week.
Trade winds are forecast to ramp up into the weekend as the driving high strengthens and pushes slightly closer to Hawaii. Stability will also be increasing on Friday as an upper low to the west lifts away. Leeward turbulence will likely increase around Friday night or Saturday, but no AIRMET will be needed for now.
A band of low clouds and showers will move onto windward Big Island tonight, then become more diffuse as it spreads westward. Mountain obscurations/AIRMET Sierra will be possible for this area overnight as this moisture tracks in, but nothing will be needed through the evening.
Issued at 308 PM HST Thu Aug 6 2026 Moderate trades persist as surface troughing to the northeast maintains a rather weak pressure gradient over the state. Dissipation of the trough to the northeast combined with renewed trough development south of the islands and strengthening high pressure to the northeast will favor fresh to locally strong trades by week's end.
Background medium and long period energy will produce small surf for south facing shores through Friday. A series of larger, medium to long period south swells arrive beginning on Saturday, causing surf to trend up for south and west facing shores this weekend into early next week. A moderate, long period south swell will peak near the High Surf Advisory threshold by the middle of next week.
Along east facing shores, trade wind swell and moderate trades will support surf slightly below seasonal averages. Surf will build this weekend in response to strengthening trade winds. Surf along north shores remains flat to tiny through the period.
None.
