Moderate to breezy trade winds are expected through much of next week as high pressure remains north of the region. Showers will focus mostly over windward and mountain areas as well as the night time and early morning hours. Occasional leeward showers will be possible. Wetter trade wind conditions are possible next week as areas of enhanced moisture are forecast to move through the islands.
High pressure will remain firmly entrenched north of the area likely through next week, keeping moderate to breezy trade winds blowing. Aloft, an upper level low just north of the area will linger near the state and could allow some of the trade wind showers to be a bit heavier than normal. Showers in general will mostly focus over windward and mountain areas through this weekend with afternoon showers over leeward Big Island.
By next week, models indicate a few batches of enhanced moisture and higher dewpoint temperatures arriving, boosting shower chances. GFS model cross section data on Monday currently shows a plume of moisture with a depth up to 10,000 ft passing through the islands. Then on Wednesday another plume of enhanced moisture arrives. This would translate to more widespread trade wind showers and more frequent leeward spillover showers.
Moderate to breezy trades will persist through the forecast period. Low clouds and showers will favor windward and mauka areas as batches of moisture move in on the trades. Expect MVFR conditions within showers and VFR elsewhere.
AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mountain obscurations for windward sections of the Big Island. Conditions may linger into the morning due to the ongoing and upstream showers.
AIRMET Tango is in effect for moderate turbulence downwind of terrain due to the breezy trade winds and will continue through the forecast period.
High pressure to the north will dominate through at least the first half of next week, keeping moderate to locally strong trade winds in place across Hawaiian waters. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect for the typically windier waters around Maui and the Big Island. The SCA has been extended through Saturday afternoon, but may still need to be extended beyond this.
A small, medium-period south swell will gradually ease today into Saturday. Surf will fall below seasonal averages by tonight. Another small, long-period south swell will arrive and fill in on Saturday, then peak on Sunday before gradually declining early next week. This swell should boost surf heights back up to near normal.
Surf along east facing shores will remain rough and choppy into early next week as breezy trades persist. Surf heights along north facing shores will remain small to tiny through the first half of next week. A tiny bump in surf is possible for north-facing shores on Saturday with the arrival of a very small, medum-period west- northwest swell.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Saturday for Maalaea Bay- Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters.
