Deepening high pressure north of the state will produce drier and fair conditions across the region through Tuesday. Major hurricane Nolo will continue to move west away from the state. Nolo is expected to turn toward the northwest on Tuesday and Wednesday, passing west of Kauai and Niihau. Trailing moisture associated with the eastern part of Nolo's circulation will bring an increase in shower activity beginning on Tuesday night and continuing into Thursday. High pressure system will re-establish again by the end of the week.
Radar images detected an increase in trade wind showers across the coastal waters. These showers were moving mainly northeast of the islands with some making its way into Molokai and Oahu from time to time. Rainfall accumulation were minimal. A relatively dry weather pattern is expected to continue statewide through Tuesday as a high pressure system briefly dominates the area. Winds have diminished since yesterday. As a result, the wind advisory which was in effect for portions of Maui, Molokai, Oahu, and the Big Island was cancelled.
Major hurricane Nolo continues to move west away from the local region. However, by Tuesday Nolo is expected to turn northwest passing around 200 miles west of Niihau and Kauai. Although the core of the hurricane will pass at a safe distance from the islands,trailing moisture associated with Nolo's circulation is expected to affect both islands, and possible Oahu from Tuesday night into Wednesday. Latest model guidance are projecting rainfall accumulation between one to two inches. Although no significant flooding is expected at this time, we will closely monitor the evolution of Nolo as latest guidance are showing deep tropical moisture moving over the islands from Tuesday through Thursday which could enhance the amount of rainfall expected. Precipitable water values are expected to increase from 1.10 inches up to 2.4 inches by Tuesday night and Wednesday.
In the long term, no significant weather events are forecast to affect the state as a high pressure system builds north and northeast of the region.
Breezy to locally strong trades will prevail today but will be noticeably less than the past couple of days as Hurricane Nolo moves further away from the state and the pressure gradient over the islands begins to relax. Showers will be fairly limited today, with just a few light showers embedded within the trades favoring windward and mountain locations.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate turbulence below 9,000 feet over and immediately downwind of island terrain. This AIRMET will likely be needed through mid-week.
Strong to near gale force trade winds and large, rough seas will gradually diminish through tonight as high pressure far north of the state begins to weaken and Hurricane Nolo, several hundred miles southwest of the Hawaiian Islands, moves farther west. The Small Craft Advisory (SCA) for all Hawaiian coastal waters (with the exception of Maalaea Bay) has been extended through tonight. Beyond that point, trade winds are expected to weaken below small craft advisory for most waters. Higher seas and strong winds may persist for favored channels and waters near Kauai, where the current National Hurricane Center forecast has Nolo tracking around 230 nautical miles west of on Wednesday. Expect moderate to locally strong winds to veer out of the east-southeast to southeast during this time. Winds will gradually ease and back more easterly by Thursday as Nolo moves westward away from the islands.
A mix of long to medium period south-southwest swell and building short to medium south swell from a powerful Hurricane Nolo now located southwest of the Hawaiian Islands will bring advisory level surf to south facing shores of all islands and west facing shores of the Big Island today. The hurricane-generated swell will gradually shift southwest, then west, as Nolo tracks northwest roughly parallel to the islands through Wednesday. While the forecast currently shows this swell gradually decreasing, and in particular, falling below advisory criteria tonight, Nolo is forecast to remain a major hurricane through Tuesday, which could maintain advisory level surf for longer than currently depicted. By mid-week, these swells will originate from the west and be diminishing as the hurricane will be weaker and it begins to track away from the islands.
East shore surf will slowly decline through Wednesday as trade winds diminish. However, small, medium period swells from distant East Pacific hurricanes will maintain moderate surf during the remainder of the week. On north facing shores, a small medium period swell will fade through Wednesday. Some wrapping west swell from Hurricane Nolo is possible by Wednesday.
Wind Advisory until 6 AM HST early this morning for Big Island North-Central Oahu-East Honolulu-Honolulu Metro-Kipahulu-Kohala- Koolau Leeward-Maui Central Valley North-Maui Central Valley South-Maui Leeward West-Maui Windward West-Molokai Leeward South- Molokai North-Molokai Southeast-Molokai West-Molokai Windward- Oahu North Shore-South Haleakala.
High Surf Advisory until 6 AM HST early this morning for Kauai East-Kauai South-Koolau Windward-Olomana.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Big Island Windward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Kauai Channel-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maui County Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters-Pailolo Channel.
