Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Honolulu Hi

843 pm hst Sat Feb 28 2026

Synopsis

A light east to southeast wind pattern will continue through Sunday as a weakening cold front approaches Kauai from the west breaking down the ridge over the Hawaii Region. Local scale onshore seabreezes will form over terrain sheltered leeward areas due to the lack of large scale winds. The eastward movement of this front will stall out near Kauai on Sunday and Monday as the front dissipates near the western edge of the state. Expect increasing clouds and showers over Kauai and Niihau during this time period. Moderate to locally breezy easterly trade winds will strengthen across the Hawaii region from Monday onward with passing windward and mountain shower activity lasting into the end of next week.

Aviation

Issued at 307 PM HST Sat Feb 28 2026

A light to moderate ESE wind regime will prevail through the weekend as a front continues its approach from the west. Light winds will continue to allow daytime seabreezes and nighttime land breezes to occur. Chances for showers over the western half of the state increase tomorrow due to lingering moisture from the stalled front. Showers will continue over windward sections of the Big Island and Maui at least through tonight. Primarily MVFR conditions will occur within showers, while VFR prevails elsewhere.

No AIRMETs are in effect.

Marine

Issued at 307 PM HST Sat Feb 28 2026

Moderate to locally fresh east to southeast winds will continue through the weekend as a cold front stalls and diminishes near the western end of the state. This will allow localized land and sea breeze conditions to develop near sheltered coasts over the weekend, particularly over Kauai and Oahu. Fresh to strong easterly trades will return early next week as the surface ridge strengthens to the north.

Surf along north and west-facing shores will trend up tonight as a fresh west-northwest swell arrives from a broad gale that was located south of the Aleutians near the Date Line. This swell will peak early next week before gradually lowering into midweek.

Surf along exposed east-facing shores will trend up slightly by Sunday as a fresh, short-to medium- period northeast swell from a gale centered around 1200 nautical miles northeast of the state arrives. Short-period and choppy conditions are expected to return by midweek as fresh trade winds redevelop and expand upstream of the state.

Surf along south-facing shores will remain near the seasonal average into March.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

None.

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