Tropical Storm Nolo strengthen once again to a hurricane this afternoon away from the islands. Drier air mass will encompass the region tonight into the weekend.
Showers developed this afternoon across the windward site of the islands. Rest of the state remained dry. Trailing moisture induced by Hurricane Nolo's circulation which affected the state for most of this week, finally has moved away from the region. A drier air mass has established through the area while winds also have shifted from a southerly to a more easterly component. Although relatively dry conditions will prevail across the state during the weekend, showers are expected to develop each afternoon on the windward side of the islands.
Early next week, the trades will weaken in response to an approaching surface trough from the northeast and then will weaken further heading into midweek as broad troughing develops northwest of the state. In this lighter flow, land and sea breezes will become increasingly more prevalent with clearing expected overnight and clouds and a few showers developing over leeward and interior areas with daytime heating each afternoon.
Gentle to moderate southeast winds will prevail through the evening hours along with showers associated with Hurricane Nolo off to the far west. Periods of MVFR conditions are expected over Kauai and eventually clearing out of Oahu tonight. Trade winds are expected to gradually fill in late tonight and will also bring drier weather to the islands Saturday.
AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mountain obscuration above 2000 feet over Kauai, and Oahu. Conditions on Oahu have improved slightly and will likely be cancelled this evening. AIRMET Sierra is also still in effect for the southeast slopes of the Big Island above 2500 feet with conditions potentially improving early tonight.
As Hurricane Nolo continues to strengthen and moves farther west away from the Hawaiian Islands, its influence on local weather will wane. Gentle to fresh east to northeast trade winds will fill back in on Saturday, along with drier air settling over the area. A Small Craft Advisory may be needed for the typically windy waters and channels by late this weekend for locally strong trades. By the middle of next week, troughing developing northwest of the islands may cause the trade winds to weaken and veer out of the southeast once again.
A moderate, medium-period west to southwest swell originating from Nolo that has been affecting Niihau and Kauai will quickly fade tonight. Meanwhile, a small background south swell continues for other islands, holding surf mostly steady along south facing shores through the weekend. A new small, long-period south swell, originating from a large fetch of gale force winds southeast of New Zealand earlier this week, is forecast to arrive beginning Sunday and peak Monday through Wednesday.
Surf along north-facing shores saw a small bump today as a small, short to medium period swell moved into the region. This will peak late today, then decline into the weekend. Another increase in small north shore surf is possible early next week as a small, medium- period northwest swell arrives this weekend and peaks on Monday. This will be followed by a slightly larger long-period northwest swell peaking on Wednesday. Surf along east facing shores will see a slight boost and become more choppy as easterly trades build back into the region this weekend.
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