Land and sea breeze pattern with interior clouds and a few isolated showers continues into Monday. Breezy easterly trades then return by mid-week supporting benign weather through next week.
Loss of diurnal instability and emerging land breezes will bring clearing to Kauai and Oahu as the evening progresses. Lingering moisture and the resident light gradient suggest potential for a few more interior showers over Kauai during Sunday afternoon, but conditions otherwise remain stable and relatively dry. Light SE to ESE winds give way to expanding sea breezes each afternoon through at least Monday followed by returning trades as longwave ridging amplifies over the N central Pacific mid/late next week. Benign weather continues through the extended as high pressure governs breezy trades at the surface and any troughing late next week is modeled to establish well west of the islands.
A SE wind regime has allowed showers to move in from the south, and sea breezes to develop in areas sheltered from SE winds. Showers have primarily affected Oahu and Kauai, and will likely linger through the evening. Light winds are expected to continue tomorrow, allowing afternoon seabreezes and island interior showers to be possible. MVFR conditions will occur within showers, and VFR will prevail elsewhere.
AIRMET Sierra is in effect for Kauai and Oahu for portions affected by CLD and SHRA. These conditions are likely to improve overnight as showers move offshore and dissipate.
An approaching front will keep a surface ridge near Kauai into Sunday, leading to gentle to moderate southeast to south winds across most waters and locally fresh east to southeast winds around Big Island. The ridge will retreat northward late Sunday and Monday, allowing east to southeast winds to develop across the island chain. Easterly trade winds will strengthen Tuesday and Wednesday as broad high pressure builds to the north, and a Small Craft Advisory (SCA) will likely be needed for the typical windy waters around Maui county and the Big Island. SCA conditions may expand to additional waters Thursday as high pressure to the north strengthens.
Small north-northeast and west-northwest swells will continue to gradually lower this weekend. Another west-northwest (330-340 degrees) swell will arrive on Sunday and shift out of the northwest during its peak on Monday, producing surf near the High Surf Advisory level along north facing shores. A larger pulse of overlapping long period north-northwest swell will build Monday night and will likely push surf above the advisory level Tuesday. Resulting seas may reach the 10 foot SCA across exposed waters during the peak of the swell. This swell will gradually decline through the remainder of the week, followed by a small to moderate northwest swell on Friday.
Small surf will prevail along east facing shores through Monday due to a mix of declining north-northeast swell and small wind wave energy generated by trade winds east of the islands. A slight increase in choppy east shore surf is expected by Tuesday as trade winds rebuild. Surf along south facing shores will remain tiny to small through the week.
None.
