Trade winds deliver showers windward and mauka and ensure quiet weather through the weekend.
Expectations for this afternoon remain on track. The boundary upstream of Kauai has made little to no forward progress today, sea breezes have struggled to establish owing to abundant high clouds, and showers southwest of Kauai and Oahu have essentially remained in place while stratiform elements peel off to the northeast. In addition, regenerating showers over Windward Oahu have dissipated in response to backing low-level flow. All told, an uneventful, cloudy, and mostly dry day across the state. Going forward, building heights over the N Central Pacific will maintain strengthening, but progressive high pressure at the surface. This in turn ensures the return of trades tonight which then become breezy during mid-week. Winds diminish slightly by late week as trades veer to ESE in advance of another round of upstream height falls. Typical trade wind weather anticipated throughout this time with showers focused windward and mauka. High clouds gradually clear from west to east Monday into Tuesday before exiting the area altogether by Wednesday.
A weakening cold front will slow in its approach over the western half of the island chain today, allowing for abundant high clouds and relatively light land/sea breezes to prevail across most TAF sites. This front will also allow for low-end rain chances across Kauai and Oahu this afternoon, however confidence was on the lower end based on weather model guidance, so made use of VCSH and PROB30 where rain chances were felt to be the highest. MVFR conditions may prevail under shower activity, otherwise VFR is expected across most sites for the period.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect across the islands due to upper- level turbulence from FL200-400 due to this front, with conditions expected to improve into tomorrow as this system continues to weaken. Patchy mountain obscuration may occur due to the presence of this front, however observations and webcams suggest that the threat is not widespread enough to warrant an AIRMET at this time.
A dissipated front will linger into Monday just northwest of the area. Fresh to locally strong easterly trades will build in by Tuesday as surface ridge strengthens to the north. Winds will maintain strength but veer east southeast towards the end of the week as another system approaches from the west.
Surf along north and west-facing shores will be above seasonal average as a northwest swell (310 degrees) is expected to impact through Monday. Surf should remain small though the week with a small northwest bump expected next weekend.
Surf along exposed east-facing shores will be a bit elevated due to a short-to medium-period northeast (40 degrees) swell, then decline Tuesday. However, period and choppy conditions are expected to return by Tuesday as fresh trade winds redevelop and expand upstream of the state.
Surf along south-facing shores will remain near the seasonal average into March.
None.
