Light winds and fair weather will persist across the state over the next several days. A weak front will approach late Thursday and will bring an increase of showers over the smaller islands on Friday with moisture lingering over the eastern half of the state Friday night into Saturday. Some periods of light to moderate rain is expected especially over windward and mauka areas during this time. A much stronger front is possible early next week.
Issued at 817 PM HST Mon Jan 26 2026
Moisture along the remnants of a front will gradually lift to the north tonight as gentle to moderate southeasterly winds develop. The front stalled this morning and brought widespread MVFR conditions to windward and northern terrain of Kauai, Oahu, and Molokai. Conditions have improved on Molokai as the front started dissipating, but AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration remains in effect on Oahu and Kauai. As high pressure moves northeast of the state tonight, the gentle to moderate trades will veer out of the southeast, pushing remnant frontal moisture northward and improving conditions on Oahu and Kauai. AIRMET Sierra may be lifted as early as late afternoon on Oahu and should be dropped everywhere by midnight. On Maui and Big Island, VFR will prevail.
On Tuesday, a surface ridge will develop over the island chain and drive gentle to moderate southeast to south winds. Some interior clouds and isolated showers will form in the afternoon, but VFR will likely dominate.
Issued at 817 PM HST Mon Jan 26 2026
Easterly trades will begin to veer southeast overnight and persist across the eastern end of the state through the second half of the week. Meanwhile, winds over the western end of the state will veer to the south-southwest through Tuesday as the surface ridge settles southward over the islands in response to a progressive pattern featuring a couple of fronts moving through the region. The first front is expected to pass north of the state during the midweek period, while a second front could reach the Kauai waters by Friday. While most coastal areas will experience typical overnight land breezes and afternoon sea breezes, terrain- induced accelerations could lead to brief periods of locally enhanced winds where the flow becomes channeled parallel to the coast.
Surf along north- and west-facing shores will trend upward early Tuesday through midweek as a fresh, medium-period northwest swell arrives. This swell was generated by a broad storm-force low tracking eastward near the Aleutians over the weekend, and surf may reach advisory levels by late Tuesday before gradually easing Wednesday into Thursday.
A larger northwest swell is expected later this week from a broad and complex low over the far northwest Pacific. Latest analysis and satellite imagery show a 966 mb low centered east of the Kurils, with a large area of gale- to storm-force winds directed toward the islands from the west-northwest to northwest (290 to 320 degrees). This swell will begin building down the island chain Thursday and could become a long-duration event, with a peak centered around the Friday through Saturday time frame. Heights will exceed advisory levels by late Thursday afternoon, then exceed warning levels Friday into Saturday.
Surf along east-facing shores will ease into Tuesday due to a combination of the local winds shifting southerly and the lack of trades upstream of the state.
South-facing shore surf may trend up slightly Tuesday as a result of a small, background long-period south swell. This swell will ease by mid week.
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