Breezy trades focus clouds and showers windward and mauka for the next week especially at night and early morning.
Strong stability prevails and is characterized by a stout trade wind inversion that slopes slightly downward from around 7kft at Kauai to 6kft at Hilo. Moisture remains trapped beneath the inversion leading to a rather impressive coverage of showers in recent nights despite synoptically dry and stable conditions. Suspect this pattern will continue as the latest modeling indicates high stability persisting through the forecast period. As such, strong June diurnal warming above cloud tops will easily suppress daytime convection while nighttime shower coverage overachieves. Shower intensity will remain light as capping remains strong and moisture depth remains relatively shallow. Mid-level ridging anchored N to NE of the islands maintains breezy trades for at least the next 7 days.
Moderate to breezy and gusty trades will gradually increase through Monday. Low cigs and SHRA will be mostly focused over windward and mauka locations. Some spillover to leeward sides isn't out of the question. MVFR conds possible in any SHRA otherwise VFR prevails.
AIRMET Tango is in effect for mod turb downwind of island terrain. This will likely continue through the weekend as trade winds strengthen.
High pressure north of the region will strengthen and dominate through the forecast period. As a result, trade winds will increase a notch through the rest of this weekend and remain through next week. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) for the windier waters and channels around Maui County and the Big Island remains in effect through Monday, but will likely need to be extended and possibly expanded in coverage as the trades strengthen.
A series of small, long-period, south swells originating near New Zealand will help boost surf heights to near the summer average (5 feet) throughout next week. The first of these should fill in Sunday into Monday, followed by another Wednesday into Thursday of next week.
Rough and choppy surf along east facing shores is expected to slightly increase into early next week due to the strengthening trade winds. Surf will remain at seasonable levels (nearly flat) along north facing shores throughout the forecast period, though select exposures could see some tradewind swell wrap.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Monday for Maalaea Bay- Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters.
