Strong trades will deliver showers mainly windward and mauka through the forecast period.
Push of mid-level dry air has brought an end to winter precip on the summits of the Big Island and stratiform rainfall over the remainder of the state. The islands now exist in a more typical strong trade wind pattern with showers focused windward and mauka. Low stability and strong trades will allow showers to penetrate leeward at times, particularly overnight. The magnitude of the trades will continue to slowly decrease, but will nonetheless remain strong through the forecast period as renewed mid-level ridging takes shape over the central and north central Pacific. All headlines have been cancelled and a Wind Advisory is now in effect through Tuesday. A couple waves of light/transient freezing rain could be deposited on the summits overnight within any particularly deep trade wind showers, but will not be particularly impactful given that it will be absorbed by fresh snowcover.
Remnant moisture then pivots through the island chain tomorrow and tomorrow night bringing enhanced trade wind showers beneath mostly cloudy to overcast skies. Mid and high clouds will likely linger for at least the next couple of days as the slowly evolving large scale pattern changes little through mid-week. Strong trades continue through the forecast period.
A strong high pressure will hold north of the state generating strong to near gale easterly winds through Tuesday before grdually weakening. High clouds streaming from an upper level disturbane to the west, will thin out tonight and Tuesday. Clouds and showers will mainly focus along windward and mauka ranges creating MVFR conditions at times.
AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mtn obsc over all smaller islands and windward portions of the Big Island.
AIRMET Tango is in effect for tempo mod turb below FL120 for leeward sides of the islands and between FL240 to FL480 over entire area.
Light icing is expected in cloud layer 120-FL250 across the state.
Trade winds will slightly taper off tonight into midweek as the pressure gradient relaxes over Hawaii. Fresh to locally strong breezes prevail over most waters with gales remaining for the windy areas through Tuesday. The Gale Warning has been extended through the day Tuesday for the typical windy waters around Maui County and the Big Island. Remaining coastal waters have replaced the Gale Warning with a Small Craft Advisory (SCA). Winds will weaken further, albeit not much by Wednesday, but likely enough to drop the Gale Warning for all waters. The SCA goes through Tuesday, but likely to remain up for at least some zones through the rest of the week as the islands remain situated between high pressure to the northeast and a trough to the southwest.
The winds will bring large and very rough surf along east facing shores through tonight. A High Surf Warning remains in effect for exposed east facing shores. Surf heights along east facing shores are likely to step down to advisory levels Tuesday, then dropping off by Wednesday. Surf heights will, however, remain elevated near advisory levels through the remainder of the week.
Small to moderate northwest swells will continue through the week resulting in no significant surf along exposed north and west facing shores. Surf will also remain small across south facing shores with no major southerly swells this week.
Wind Advisory until 6 PM HST Tuesday for all Hawaiian Islands.
High Surf Warning until 6 AM HST Tuesday for east facing shores of all Hawaiian Islands.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Tuesday for Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Channel- Oahu Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Maui County Windward Waters-Maui County Leeward Waters-Big Island Windward Waters.
Gale Warning until 6 PM HST Tuesday for Maalaea Bay-Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters.
