Issued at 840 PM HST Mon Feb 2 2026
A cold front currently moving across Oahu this evening will progress down the island chain tonight, finally stalling out and diminishing near the Big Island by Tuesday afternoon. The gusty southwesterly winds will be tapering off tonight as the front pushes through. Cool and dry conditions will follow behind the frontal passage. A stronger weather system may produce more significant weather impacts across from late Friday onward with the potential for periods of heavy rain and thunderstorms.
Issued at 356 PM HST Mon Feb 2 2026
Satellite imagery this afternoon shows bands of cumulus clouds with embedded showers streaming northeastward across the state from the southwest, out ahead of a cold front currently moving across Kauai. Strong to locally gusty southwest winds have firmly increased to Wind Advisory levels across all Hawaiian Islands, with sustained speeds generally in the 20 to 30 mph range and gusts frequently reaching 40 to 50 mph this afternoon. The strongest winds continue to favor higher terrain and areas north and east of island terrain features. A Wind Advisory remains in effect through tonight to address these conditions, though winds are expected to ease below advisory levels as the front passes and winds shift out of the northwest. Even stronger winds are expected across the highest summits on the Big Island, where speeds will increase to warning levels later this afternoon and evening. A High Wind Warning remains in effect for the summits of Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa through Wednesday.
The cold front is currently crossing Kauai this afternoon and remains on track to reach Oahu this evening, Maui County late tonight, and the Big Island Tuesday morning, though with noticeably weaker shower activity by the time it reaches the eastern end of the state. The most significant rainfall is expected to occur during a four to six hour window as the main frontal band moves through each island. Cooler and drier northwesterly winds will follow the front, allowing overnight and early morning temperatures to dip into the 60s as clearer skies and drier air promote more efficient radiational cooling.
Lighter winds are expected to return from Tuesday night through Thursday as a weak high pressure system settles just north of the islands and drifts eastward. By Thursday night into Friday, winds will shift back out of the southwest ahead of the next cold front approaching from the northwest. Current guidance suggests this front may stall near Kauai and Oahu from Saturday night into Sunday as the associated cold pool aloft evolves into a cutoff low near the islands.
Forecast uncertainty remains high regarding the impacts of this cutoff low heading into the weekend. Recent model trends show the front slowing sooner and stalling farther north than earlier forecasts suggested, with the upper low also trending westward over time. If this system sets up close enough to the islands, it could produce periods of heavy rain and thunderstorms, with an increased risk for flooding from Saturday through Monday. At this time, the highest potential for significant impacts appears to be across the western islands, including Niihau, Kauai, and Oahu. However, impacts will depend heavily on the eventual placement and evolution of the upper low. This system will continue to be closely monitored as forecast confidence improves over the coming days.
Issued at 840 PM HST Mon Feb 2 2026
Gusty southwest winds continue ahead of an advancing cold front that is bringing a round of heavy showers. These showers will bring MVFR conditions, with isolated IFR conditions possible. This front is currently exiting Oahu to the east. It will continue on to Maui County overnight before weakening as it reaches the Big Island Tuesday morning. Northwest winds will follow the front, then becoming north Tuesday night.
AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mountain obscuration across Kauai, Oahu, Maui, and Lanai. This may need to be expanded as the front moves southeast across the island chain.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate low level turbulence below 5000 feet over and downwind (north and east) of mountain terrain across all islands. The strongest turbulence will be felt surface to 2000 feet in these areas. Conditions are expected to improve overnight as winds weaken behind the front.
Issued at 840 PM HST Mon Feb 2 2026
Rough marine conditions will persist into Tuesday as strong winds associated with a cold front advancing down the island chain combine with a significant northwest swell. The front, currently moving through Oahu this evening, will reach Maui County later this evening, then move into the Big Island waters where it is expected to stall and weaken Tuesday into midweek. Strong to near gale force southwest winds ahead of the boundary will quickly veer to the northwest in its wake as the front passes through.
A progressive winter pattern will continue thereafter, with another cold front approaching the area by the weekend. Local winds will briefly ease to light to moderate easterlies by Wednesday as high pressure builds in behind the departing front. Moderate to locally fresh southwest winds may return during the second half of the week as the next system draws closer.
Surf along exposed north- and west-facing shores will rapidly build late tonight through Tuesday as a significant northwest swell generated by a broad storm-force Aleutian low arrives and builds down the island chain. Offshore buoys are already responding this evening, with rapidly rising heights aligning well with forecast guidance. The relatively short travel distance from the fetch region, combined with locally strong northwest winds veering more northerly through Tuesday, will produce very rough surf with a mix of short- to medium-period energy. Surf will reach the extra-large to giant range on Tuesday near the peak of the event for exposed coasts of the smaller islands, with heights well above warning levels lingering into Wednesday before gradually lowering to advisory levels by Thursday. Provided the more westerly angle (300-320 degrees), much of this energy will become blocked for most north facing shores of the Big Island. Heights will potentially return to warning levels for exposed coasts Friday night into Saturday from a developing storm-force low over the far northwest Pacific.
Water levels are running higher than predicted combined with onshore winds and warning-level surf will increase the threat of coastal flooding impacts along exposed coasts. Overwash onto vulnerable low- lying roadways and properties is likely, especially during the late-night peak tide cycle and around daybreak Tuesday.
Surf along exposed south-facing shores will remain rough overnight due to locally strong southwest winds ahead of the cold front. Conditions will improve from west to east late tonight through Tuesday as winds veer to the north-northwest and offshore flow develops in the wake of the boundary.
Nuisance coastal flooding will remain likely from midnight through daybreak Tuesday due to elevated water levels, even in sheltered coastal areas away from direct surf exposure. The potential for impacts will ease beginning Wednesday as tides gradually lower through midweek.
Wind Advisory until 6 AM HST Tuesday for Big Island East-Big Island Interior-Big Island North-Big Island South-Big Island Southeast-Central Oahu-East Honolulu-Ewa Plain-Haleakala Summit- Honolulu Metro-Kahoolawe-Kauai East-Kauai Mountains-Kauai North- Kauai South-Kauai Southwest-Kipahulu-Kohala-Kona-Koolau Leeward- Koolau Windward-Lanai Leeward-Lanai Mauka-Lanai South-Lanai Windward-Maui Central Valley North-Maui Central Valley South- Maui Leeward West-Maui Windward West-Molokai Leeward South- Molokai North-Molokai Southeast-Molokai West-Molokai Windward- Niihau-Oahu North Shore-Olomana-South Haleakala-South Maui/Upcountry-Waianae Coast-Waianae Mountains-Windward Haleakala.
High Surf Warning until 6 PM HST Wednesday for Big Island East- Big Island North-Kauai North-Kauai Southwest-Kohala-Kona-Maui Central Valley North-Maui Windward West-Molokai North-Molokai West-Molokai Windward-Niihau-Oahu North Shore-Waianae Coast- Windward Haleakala.
High Wind Warning until 6 PM HST Wednesday for Big Island Summits.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Wednesday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Big Island Windward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Kauai Channel-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maui County Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters-Pailolo Channel.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Tuesday for Maalaea Bay.
