Breezy trades will persist through the weekend, then gradually weaken to moderate speeds by the latter half of next week. Periodic showers will filter in on the trade wind flow through next week, mainly focusing over windward and mauka areas. By next weekend, the background flow may become light enough to support land and sea breeze development.
Moderate to breezy trades through the weekend. Low ceilings and showers should primarily impact windward and mauka locations with occasional spillover to leeward areas. MVFR conditions possible in showers, otherwise VFR.
AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mountain obscuration across windward areas of Oahu, Molokai, Maui, and the Big Island. Conditions should improve later this morning.
AIRMET Tango is in effect for moderate turbulence downwind of terrain due to breezy trade winds.
High pressure centered far northeast of the islands will weaken slightly Sunday, leading to a subtle decrease in trade winds. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect for all waters through tonight, and with the expected drop in the trades, the SCA will be trimmed back to the typically windy waters around Big Island and Maui for Sunday and at least Monday. During the middle of next week, a ridge north of the islands associated with the high will be weakened and depressed southward. As a result, trades will drop further and allow the SCA to be cancelled entirely Tuesday or Wednesday.
The current south swell will continue to gradually decline through Sunday, with high uncertainty regarding the next swell that will arrive Sunday night and Monday. Nearshore PacIOOS buoys are measuring the dropping swell at around 2.5 ft 14 seconds this morning, which is enough to produce inconsistent sets to June average. As this swell fades late Sunday, long period forerunners of the next south should arrive. The new swell was aimed well east of Hawaii, and while this means high uncertainty regarding how much energy will be received locally, there is potential for south shore surf to be around or slightly higher than June average Monday into Wednesday. A smaller pulse of south-southwest swell is due Thursday and Friday, and a more significant south- southwest swell looks to arrive next weekend.
Along north-facing shores, a small short period north swell will fade tonight, and a small west-northwest swell will produce tiny north shore surf early next week. Rough surf along east-facing shores will remain around seasonal average through Sunday, then slowly decline through the middle of next week as trade winds ease.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Sunday for Big Island Windward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Kauai Channel-Kauai Leeward Waters- Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maui County Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Monday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Maalaea Bay-Pailolo Channel.
