Relatively dry and weak trades will gradually strengthen through Wednesday, then become moderate through next weekend. Moisture from the remains of Norbert should arrive Thursday into Friday, greatly increasing shower coverage and intensity. Drier air will move back in next weekend as trades continue.
We will see a slight uptick in moisture with the trade winds today, leading to a 30-70% chance of showers on the windward side of the islands. Radar imagery this morning continues to show showers drifting westward over our waters with a few showers passing over the islands. MVFR conditions are expected with shower activity today, with cloud heights around 2000-2500. The forecast should be on repeat for Tuesday, as moisture continues to gradually increase.
For PMDY conditions look to remain dry, though we may get a few low to mid level clouds due to a low sitting north-northeast of the region. Opted to continue to keep the forecast dry through most of today, though the ECMWF model shows the potential for some passing showers later this afternoon. Both the GFS and the ECMWF show showers late tonight into Tuesday, with winds shifting to the north or northwest.
Issued at 403 AM HST Mon Sep 14 2026
Moderate to locally fresh trades will continue through Tuesday before strengthening through the latter half of the week. Moisture associated with a weak trough moving in on the trade wind flow may bring a slight uptick in shower activity today into Tuesday. Wednesday night, the remnants of Tropical Storm Norbert enter the offshore waters and are forecast to bring a more significant increase in moisture and stronger trade winds Thursday into the weekend.
Surf along south-facing shores will be slightly below seasonal average through Tuesday. A series of long-period swells are expected during the second half of the week. The first pulse will gradually fill in tonight into Wednesday out of the southwest, followed by larger south-southwest swells Friday into the weekend. Surf gradually trends upward through the week beginning Wednesday and will approach advisory thresholds by the weekend.
Surf along east-facing shores should see an increase during the second half of the week as the trades strengthen and the remnants of Tropical Storm Norbert move through the islands. Flat to tiny surf along north facing shores is expected through the forecast period.
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