High pressure far northeast will drive trade winds tonight. Wind speeds will taper off through much of this week as remnants of Tropical Cyclone Genevieve linger between the high and Hawaii. Clouds and showers will favor windward and mauka areas, with some enhancement possible for the western half Tuesday through Thursday due to an upper trough setting up to the west.
Generally VFR with weakening trade winds. Occasional MVFR ceilings and visibilities within more organized showers focused over windward and upslope mauka exposures. No AIRMETs currently in effect and none expected this period.
A ridge of high pressure north of the state will weaken tonight as a front passes far north of the state. This will allow the trade winds to steadily weaken through Tuesday. Winds should decrease below Small Craft Advisory thresholds by Monday. The current SCA is for the windier waters around Maui County and the Big Island through tonight. Trade winds should restrengthen by the end of the week as a strong high rebuilds far northeast of the state.
Surf along south facing shores will stay below seasonal averages with mainly background energy throughout most of this week. The next small, long period south swell will arrive by Saturday with a slight bump in south shore surf heights through next weekend. A series of south swells are expected the following week (week of Aug 9th), which should produce surf heights at or above seasonal averages.
East facing shores will remain rough and choppy through tonight, but should see a steady decrease as the trade winds weaken into Monday. Small, medium period easterly swell generated from former TC Genevieve will linger over the next few days.
Surf along north facing and west shores will remain flat to tiny through the forecast period except for areas exposed to the easterly trade wrap.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Monday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Maalaea Bay-Pailolo Channel.
