Moderate to locally breezy trades will continue this week as high pressure remains anchored well north of the state. A relatively dry and stable air mass will keep windward showers sparse and leeward areas mostly dry. Trades may ease briefly late this week before strengthening again next weekend as high pressure rebuilds to the north. Tropical systems far east of the state will be monitored, but pose no immediate impacts to the islands.
Satellite shows mostly clear skies over most of the state this afternoon, while radar indicates isolated light showers in a few windward areas. Trade winds continue at 10 to 20 mph with gusts just over 30 mph in the usual windy spots.
A broad surface high centered well north of the state remains the dominate synoptic feature on our weather map, supporting moderate to locally breezy trades this week. Trade wind showers will remain limited as a relatively dry air mass persists. Model guidance suggests a slight increase of moisture Tuesday into Wednesday, but it will only lead to a slight increase in showers. Overall, we'll see isolated, light windward and mauka showers, with leeward areas remaining predominately dry.
Forecast confidence late in the week becomes increasingly dependent on the evolution of the tropical disturbances currently located well east of us. While deterministic and ensemble guidance suggests some westward progression, it remains too early to determine whether any of these systems or their associated moisture will influence the Hawaiian Islands. At this time, no changes to the sensible weather forecast are warranted, though these tropical features will continue to be monitored closely over the coming days.
Moderate trades will continue through the forecast period. Outside of the occasional windward shower, expect largely VFR conditions across all sites.
No AIRMETs are in effect and none are anticipated for the forecast period.
The trade winds will ease tonight and Monday as high pressure north of the islands weakens, with the trades then holding at moderate speeds through Tuesday. The trades will restrengthen back to fresh and locally strong speeds Wednesday and Thursday as high pressure strengthens north of the island chain.
A south swell is expected to build tonight, then peak around the advisory level Monday night into early Wednesday. A High Surf Advisory will likely be required through this period. As this swell slowly fades during the middle of the week, a new long period south swell will arrive on Thursday, keeping surf elevated through next weekend.
Surf along north-facing shores will remain at flat to tiny levels through next weekend.
Surf along east facing shores will lower slightly Monday through Wednesday as the trades ease upstream of the islands. East shore surf should then build back close to seasonal levels late in the week through next weekend. Additionally, swell from Tropical Storm Elida may give a slight boost to east shore surf during the middle of the week.
None.
