Moderate trades hold through today. A sea breeze pattern then develops for the midweek period followed by returning light trades. Limited rainfall during this time.
Ridging will weaken in response to a series of cold fronts passing well north of the state. This will lead to a gradual easing of the trade winds beginning Tuesday, with local land and sea breeze circulations becoming more dominant through midweek. From Tuesday through Thursday, a more humid air mass will settle over the islands, with dewpoints potentially climbing into the mid- to upper-60s. These dewpoints combined with the afternoon sea breezes will support localized afternoon cloud buildups and a few brief showers over interior and leeward areas, followed by clearing at night as land breezes develop.
By the latter part of the week into the weekend, moisture and rainfall chances may trend up. Global guidance indicates upper heights lowering as an upper-level disturbance approaches the region. In addition, a weak attendant frontal boundary may move into the area. However, there remains considerable spread among the model solutions regarding the timing and strength of these features, so confidence in the details remains limited at this time.
Moderate trade winds will deliver showers over windward and mountain areas through this evening before weakening overnight. Light winds tomorrow will allow a land and sea breeze pattern to take place with possible afternoon showers over island interiors. Periods of MVFR ceilings and visibility are possible in showers, otherwise VFR is expected.
AIRMET Sierra is currently in effect for mountain obscuration over windward areas of Maui, but expect conditions to improve overnight. No other AIRMET's are in effect.
A trough entering the northwest waters on Tuesday will cause trade winds to weaken and veer southeasterly north of around 20N. Land and sea breezes will be possible as the ridge is weakened on Tuesday and Wednesday. Gentle to moderate trade winds are expected to redevelop for the latter half of the week as weak ridging to the north makes a recovery. High pressure builds into the northwest by the weekend.
A moderate northwest swell built to 5 ft at 13 seconds on offshore buoys today. This swell will pass through the islands, causing surf along north and west facing shores to build this evening and peak tonight into early Tuesday above seasonal averages. The swell will then slowly decline through Wednesday. A larger northwest swell arriving on Wednesday could produce surf near the High Surf Advisory level Thursday, then lower Friday into next weekend.
A south swell will gradually decrease tonight into Tuesday, with small pulses keeping surf from going flat for the latter half of the week.
Trade wind swell will remain below seasonal average for much of the week, keeping below average surf along east facing shores.&&
.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES, None.
None.
