Breezy trades will continue through at least the middle of the week with showers generally favoring windward and mauka areas, particularly during the overnight through early morning hours each day. Tropical Storm Lowell is currently over 700 miles ESE of the Big Island. Latest forecast track has Lowell passing south of the Big Island late Wednesday into Thursday. Trade winds are expected to become strong and gusty Thursday into Friday as Lowell passes south of the state. Forecast still remains very uncertain for Labor Day weekend, with the potential for Lowell and Karina within the vicinity of the state.
Issued at 424 AM HST Mon Aug 31 2026 A strong high pressure system north of the Hawaiian Islands will keep moderate to breezy trade winds in the forecast over the next several days. A unsettled band of clouds and showers continues to drift over the islands this morning, bringing periods of MVFR conditions mainly along the windward mountain areas. These MVFR conditions will ease a few hours after sunrise.
AIRMET Sierra remains in effect for tempo mountain obscurations for north through east sections Kauai, Oahu, Molokai, Maui and the Big Island due to increasing low cloud and shower trends.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for mod low level turbulence south through west of island mountains. This turbulence AIRMET will likely continue for the foreseeable future.
A strong surface high will remain nearly stationary far north of the Hawaiian Islands this week, keeping moderate to locally strong trade winds in place. Tropical Storm Lowell, now in the Central Pacific, is forecast to intensify into a hurricane tonight and will track very close to or move into the southern offshore waters, bringing possible hurricane conditions from Wednesday into Thursday. There is still some uncertainty with the forecast track of Lowell, especially closer to this weekend as the cyclone begins to gain latitude, which will have significant impacts on the wind, wave, and surf forecast for the region. Regardless of Lowell's final path, trade winds will increase this week likely by Wednesday afternoon as a result of the gradient between high pressure to the north, and Lowell to the south. By this weekend, Hurricane Karina, approaching the region from the east, will increasingly be a factor in the forecast of seas and surf as well.
Overlapping small, long- and medium-period south swell energy will keep small surf along south facing shores today. A moderate south swell is expected to arrive Tuesday, then peak on Wednesday, bringing surf heights to just below advisory thresholds. This swell will then gradually decline through the rest of the week, while at the same time, medium period energy from Lowell could start filling in across south and southeast shores. Swell from Lowell could peak this weekend, and its size will be highly dependent on the track and intensity of the storm. Currently the swell from Lowell, based on its current forecast, is estimated to elevate surf but stay below advisory levels.
Trade wind swell energy will keep elevated surf heights along all east facing shores through the coming week. Later in the week, a medium-period east swell arrives from Hurricane Karina that could push east shore surf to advisory thresholds by this weekend into next week.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Tuesday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Maalaea Bay-Pailolo Channel.
