Surface high pressure will continue to build northeast of the state through Wednesday and bring locally breezy easterly trade winds. Brief passing showers will favor windward and mountain areas, mainly during the overnight and early morning hours. Late Wednesday through this weekend, trade winds will ease slightly and veer to a more east-southeast direction, shifting shower activity over east and southeast facing slopes of most islands. However, overall rainfall amounts are expected to remain limited. An approaching front may bring unsettled wet weather by early to mid next week.
Stable trade winds will strengthen to fresh to strong levels and become more easterly tonight into Wednesday, delivering clouds and showers mainly windward and mauka. Pockets of MVFR are likely, but VFR is forecast to prevail during this time. AIRMET Tango for lee turb is in effect and will should remain in place through Wednesday.
Issued at 825 PM HST Tue Mar 3 2026 Fresh to strong trade winds will strengthen and become increasingly easterly on Wednesday as surface high pressure strengthens far northeast of the islands. Wednesday night into Thursday, winds will veer out of the east-southeast around Oahu and Kauai as the high drifts eastward and a front approaches the state from the northwest. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is in effect for most of the waters around the Big Island and Maui through Thursday morning where winds will be strongest. Minor adjustments will need to be made, but the SCA will likely continue for the typical windier waters through the weekend. As a cold frontal low slowly advances toward the islands from the west early next week, local winds could veer increasingly southerly.
The small, decreasing northwest swell will continue its gradual decline through Thursday. A small west-northwest swell will arrive on Friday and hold through the weekend, followed by a small west-northwest swell early next week. There may also be very small northerly swell late this week into the weekend. Choppy east shore surf will build to near seasonal average by Wednesday as trade winds strengthen over and east of the islands. Little change is expected along east facing shores through the weekend, followed by a possible decline early next week if winds veer southerly. Surf along south facing shores will remain small to tiny through the weekend, and some islands may see an increase in choppy surf if southerly winds develop early next week.
A Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect through early Wednesday morning due to the combination of peak monthly high tides and water levels that are running higher than predicted. This may lead to minor flooding along the shoreline and in low- lying coastal areas during the high tide between midnight and daybreak. The Coastal Flood Statement will likely be canceled by Wednesday morning.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Thursday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Big Island Windward Waters-Maalaea Bay-Maui County Windward Waters-Pailolo Channel.
