After showers and isolated thunderstorms depart the Big Island tonight, an upper level ridge will move in and bring a return to cooler and drier trades from Tuesday through Thursday. Winds will veer to southeast Friday and remain that way into the weekend, bringing warmer temperatures and a sea- and land-breeze pattern. Sunday night into early next week has the potential for another boundary and another wet pattern.
Issued at 735 PM HST Mon Feb 23 2026
Windward showers will continue to taper off this evening and overnight, with only the windward side of the Big Island seeing persistent shower activity through the day Tuesday. Weather models suggest another light band of showers may impact windward sites during the day Tuesday, however confidence was lacking outside of the Big Island, so only left mention of VCSH for those sites. Otherwise, NE winds will continue to trend downward through the period.
AIRMET Sierra remains in effect for windward Maui and the Big Island, with conditions expected to improve for Maui overnight.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate upper turbulence for FL270/350, however this is expected to improve and eventually drop off overnight.
Issued at 735 PM HST Mon Feb 23 2026
Strong high pressure remains far north of the state, while a surface trough stretching across the Big Island drifts southward. Fresh to locally strong northeasterly trade winds prevail along and north of the trough. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) for select waters has been issued through Tuesday and will likely be extended through Tuesday night due to a combination of winds and seas. Trade winds will decline on Wednesday and Thursday as the high to the north moves east and weakens, but winds may hold around SCA strength across the typically windier waters and channels around Maui County and Big Island Wednesday. An approaching front will likely cause winds to decline and veer out of the southeast Thursday night into Saturday.
A large, long period north-northeast (010-030 deg) swell will continue to rapidly build through the night and peak overnight and early Tuesday. The swell at NDBC buoy 51000 has been holding at 12 to 14 feet at 14 to 16 seconds during the past several hours, and an additional rise is possible into the night This swell will produce breaking waves at High Surf Warning levels across most north and east facing shores through Tuesday. Due to the direction of the large swell, exposed west facing shores of West Maui, western Molokai, and North Kohala on the Big Island will likely experience High Surf Advisory conditions. The north- northeast swell will gradually decline Tuesday night through Friday. In addition to this swell, a small pulse of overlapping west- northwest swell is expected through Wednesday.
Due to the direction of the large north-northeast (010-030) swell, some overwash will be possible along low-lying coastal roads and infrastructure in windward areas, especially in the Keaukaha area east of Hilo. Hazardous conditions and heavy surges are expected in north facing harbors, mainly in Hilo and Kahului, and a Marine Weather Statement remains in place to highlight this threat.
Very small wintertime surf will continue along south facing shores this week.
High Surf Warning until 6 PM HST Tuesday for Big Island East-Big Island North-Kauai East-Kauai North-Koolau Windward-Maui Central Valley North-Maui Windward West-Molokai North-Molokai Windward- Niihau-Oahu North Shore-Olomana-Windward Haleakala.
High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST Tuesday for Kohala-Lanai Windward-Maui Leeward West-Molokai West.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Tuesday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Windward Waters- Kaiwi Channel-Kauai Channel-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Maalaea Bay-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maui County Windward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters-Pailolo Channel.
