Light to moderate trade winds are expected through the weekend. Brief passing showers will move into windward and mountain areas on the northeasterly trade winds, favoring the overnight to early morning hours. A more significant change to our weather pattern continues to evolve for next week. Deeply unstable tropical moisture moving across the state will bring the potential for heavy rain and thunderstorms to most islands starting around Monday night or Tuesday and persisting through at least the middle of the week.
A strong jet stream just to our north is forecast to shift southward and could produce severe turbulence in and close to SIGMET Romeo. Light to moderate turbulence is possible around Kauai and Oahu between 24 and 32,000 feet.
Lower level isolated moderate turbulence is also possible under 10,000 feet. While no AIRMETs are currently in effect, AIRMET Tango will be considered later today for this local turbulence threat.
Light trade winds will continue across most of the terminals where VFR conditions will prevail. PHTO will likely see passing showers later today which could produce brief MVFR ceilings and visibilities.
A surface low far north of islands will move to the southeast through Saturday and will stall roughly 800 nm northeast of Oahu Sunday and Monday, keeping the subtropical ridge just north of the area rather weak. Trade winds will be at gentle to moderate strength during much of this time, though a brief period of fresh northeast winds may accompany a shallow band of showers moving over Kauai and Oahu Saturday night. Uncertainty increases Tuesday, when an area of low pressure is expected to move over the islands from the southwest, bringing variable winds and the potential for heavy showers and thunderstorms.
Small surf will persist along north shores into Saturday. A moderate, medium-period north-northwest swell will build late Saturday and produce surf near seasonal average during its peak on Sunday. As this swell declines on Monday, a long-period west- northwest swell will arrive, maintaining small to moderate surf into the middle of next week.
Small background level surf will prevail along south-facing shores into Saturday. A series of small, overlapping, medium- period south-southwest swells will push surf back to near seasonal average late Saturday into early next week. A larger south-southwest swell is possible Thursday.
Along east-facing shores, wind swell energy will be low through much of the week, but a small medium-period northeast swell may maintain small surf through Saturday. Aside from wrapping north- northwest swell in exposed areas, east shore surf should remain below seasonal average.
None.
