Breezy east-southeast winds will persist through the weekend as a cold front stalls northwest of the state and high pressure remains anchored to the northeast. This pattern will favor showers along southeast- and east-facing slopes of the Big Island and Maui, with sea breezes and downstream convergence bringing clouds and a few showers to leeward and interior areas. Strengthening southerly flow may draw deep tropical moisture over the islands next week, bringing an increasing chance for a wetter and more unsettled pattern.
Moderately breezy easterly trades are expected to continue tonight, then turn a little more southeasterly tomorrow. Isolated to scattered showers will occur mainly windward and mauka, with MVFR possible. Expect the usual uptick in coverage and intensity of showers overnight. Still, most sites will have VFR.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for turbulence below 8 kft along leeward sites of the islands due to the ongoing trade pattern. This is expected to remain in effect through the period.
Issued at 825 PM HST Wed Mar 4 2026
Trade winds have started to veer towards the east-southeast today due to the high shifting further east. Fresh to strong east to east-southeast winds will continue to persist through Thursday then slightly ease Thursday night into Friday as a front passes north of the islands. Fresh to strong east-southeast winds will return over the weekend. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect for most of the waters around the Big Island and Maui through Thursday, where winds will be strongest. A large low pressure system approaches from the west this weekend and lingers northwest of the islands starting early next week. Winds veer more southerly in response to the low's cold front making a close approach or even entering the northwest offshore waters by mid- week. Strong southerly winds, potentially gale force, will be possible depending on how close the low pressure system gets to the islands.
Surf along north- and west-facing shores will remain small as a series of small west to northwest swells reach the Hawaiian Islands over the next week or so. The current small northwest swell will continue to decline through Thursday. A new small west-northwest swell will arrive to replace the first on Thursday, and peak Friday night, followed by another small northwest that maintains the small surf through the weekend. A compact storm- force low currently just off the coast of Japan will likely produce another small west-northwest swell early next week.
Choppy east shore surf did increase to seasonal averages today due to the strengthening east to east-southeast winds. Little change is expected along east facing shores over the next few days followed by a slight increase over the weekend. Surf along east facing shores should decline early next week as winds veer southerly. Surf along south facing shores will remain small through the weekend, but may increase and becoming increasingly choppy with the shift to a more southerly wind direction early next week. A small long-period south swell is also possible around Tuesday of next week.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Thursday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Big Island Windward Waters-Maui County Windward Waters-Pailolo Channel.
