Relatively light winds and stable weather conditions will continue into Sunday. A cold front will March eastward down the island chain from Monday evening through Tuesday, before stalling out and diminishing near the Big Island on Wednesday. Moderate to breezy southwesterly winds will blow in ahead of the front and northwest winds will move in after the front passes each island. A stronger cold front will spread showers across the Hawaii region from next week Friday into the weekend. This next cold front may bring periods of heavy rain and thunderstorms as it passes. Cooler temperatures and drier conditions will blow into the region after the front passes each island.
Issued at 325 PM HST Sat Jan 31 2026
A weakening trough lingering near the eastern end of the state will bring periods of showers over Maui County and the Big Island through this evening. Brief periods of MVFR conditions are possible with any showers. Shower activity should decrease this evening as land breezes develop. VFR conditions are expected for Sunday as the moisture associated with the weakening trough moves further away from the state. Winds are expected to be light to moderate and generally out of the southerly direction during the Sunday.
AIRMET Sierra is in effect for tempo mountain obscuration above 2000 feet for Maui. Clouds and showers are expected to decrease this evening and the AIRMET will likely be cancelled before midnight tonight.
Issued at 325 PM HST Sat Jan 31 2026
Trades will continue to weaken this afternoon as high pressure north of the state moves eastward. These lighter trade winds will give way to southeast winds tonight as a surface ridge is pushed over the island chain. South to southwest winds will develop on Sunday and will build to fresh to strong levels Sunday night and Monday as a cold front approaches. This front is expected to pass down the island chain Monday night and Tuesday, and a Small Craft Advisory may be needed for some waters as winds peak Monday into Tuesday.
Large surf along north and west facing shores will gradually fade tonight into Sunday, with another round of elevated surf due early next week. A complex storm low far northwest of Hawaii generated overlapping west- northwest to northwest (295 to 320 degrees) swells that are currently affecting the islands, with the northwest (320 degrees) swell becoming dominant. NOAA offshore buoys northwest of Kauai have been showing these swells slowly declining throughout the day. Based on these observations and the gradual decline in swell noted at the Hanalei and Waimea nearshore buoys, decided to drop the High Surf Warning and go with a High Surf Advisory that is now in effect for north and west facing shores of Niihau, Kauai, Oahu, and Molokai, and north facing shores of Maui and west facing shores of the Big Island through 6 AM HST Sunday morning. In addition, the Small Craft Advisory for waters exposed to the elevated seas has been extended through tonight as seas are expected to remain above threshold into the evening, then slowly decline overnight. Another round of potentially larger northwest swell is expected late Monday through early Thursday.
A Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect through Monday. During this time, higher than predicted tides will produce minor flooding along vulnerable low-lying coastal infrastructure as well as some some beach erosion during peak high tides between midnight and sunrise. The elevated tides will also contribute to runup and beach erosion late tonight into early Sunday morning, along north and west shores exposed to the large swell.
Surf along east- and south-facing shores will remain small through the week.
High Surf Advisory until 6 AM HST Sunday for north and west facing shores of Niihau, Kauai, Oahu, and Molokai. North facing shores of Maui and west facing shores of Big Island.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Sunday for Hawaiian Coastal Waters and Channels exposed to the large northwest swell.
