Relatively light winds will continue through Sunday. A cold front will move in Monday evening through Tuesday, with breezy southwesterly winds ahead of the front Monday and northeast winds behind. Showers will occur with frontal passage, before it stalls out and weakens near the Big Island Wednesday. A potentially strong cold front is forecast Friday into next weekend. This may bring periods of heavy rain and thunderstorms from Friday night well into next weekend.
Issued at 325 PM HST Sat Jan 31 2026
Winds are light and generally out of the southeast, but there is also a sea-breeze component added in so that winds are blowing in from the coast in most areas. Light showers have formed mainly windward and mauka, with precipitation amounts just a few hundredths so far. Otherwise, skies were partly to mostly cloudy. Leeward showers should diminish rapidly after sunset, with windward showers continuing overnight.
Light winds tonight and Sunday will allow VOG to remain an issue for much of the state tonight and Sunday. Then light winds will give way to gusty SW winds over the western end of the state Sunday night. These strong SW winds will spread east across the state Monday in advance of a cold front. This front is forecast to move into Kauai County Monday evening, Oahu around midnight, and Maui County by sunrise Tuesday. It will then slow significantly, reaching the Big Island Tuesday afternoon before stalling out and weakening there through Thursday. The upper level support for this front is not that strong, so brief heavy rain and gusty winds are the main threat. Moderate NW winds immediately behind the front will shift around to NE about 24 hours after the front passes.
Winds, possibly strong, will turn southerly and then southwesterly Thursday night through Friday night as a strong front moves in from the northwest. This will pull the remnant moisture from the previous front back northwestward across the state, so an increase in showers is likely even before this new front arrives. The latest guidance has the front reaching the western end of the state Friday night, and then passing over the rest of the state Saturday. This front is still 6-7 days out, so this timing is subject to change. At this time, models depict this as a strong front with significant upper level support, so heavy rain, strong winds, and thunderstorms are possible.
Issued at 325 PM HST Sat Jan 31 2026
A weakening trough lingering near the eastern end of the state will bring periods of showers over Maui County and the Big Island through this evening. Brief periods of MVFR conditions are possible with any showers. Shower activity should decrease this evening as land breezes develop. VFR conditions are expected for Sunday as the moisture associated with the weakening trough moves further away from the state. Winds are expected to be light to moderate and generally out of the southerly direction during the Sunday.
AIRMET Sierra is in effect for tempo mountain obscuration above 2000 feet for Maui. Clouds and showers are expected to decrease this evening and the AIRMET will likely be cancelled before midnight tonight.
Issued at 325 PM HST Sat Jan 31 2026
Trades will continue to weaken this afternoon as high pressure north of the state moves eastward. These lighter trade winds will give way to southeast winds tonight as a surface ridge is pushed over the island chain. South to southwest winds will develop on Sunday and will build to fresh to strong levels Sunday night and Monday as a cold front approaches. This front is expected to pass down the island chain Monday night and Tuesday, and a Small Craft Advisory may be needed for some waters as winds peak Monday into Tuesday.
Large surf along north and west facing shores will gradually fade tonight into Sunday, with another round of elevated surf due early next week. A complex storm low far northwest of Hawaii generated overlapping west- northwest to northwest (295 to 320 degrees) swells that are currently affecting the islands, with the northwest (320 degrees) swell becoming dominant. NOAA offshore buoys northwest of Kauai have been showing these swells slowly declining throughout the day. Based on these observations and the gradual decline in swell noted at the Hanalei and Waimea nearshore buoys, decided to drop the High Surf Warning and go with a High Surf Advisory that is now in effect for north and west facing shores of Niihau, Kauai, Oahu, and Molokai, and north facing shores of Maui and west facing shores of the Big Island through 6 AM HST Sunday morning. In addition, the Small Craft Advisory for waters exposed to the elevated seas has been extended through tonight as seas are expected to remain above threshold into the evening, then slowly decline overnight. Another round of potentially larger northwest swell is expected late Monday through early Thursday.
A Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect through Monday. During this time, higher than predicted tides will produce minor flooding along vulnerable low-lying coastal infrastructure as well as some some beach erosion during peak high tides between midnight and sunrise. The elevated tides will also contribute to runup and beach erosion late tonight into early Sunday morning, along north and west shores exposed to the large swell.
Surf along east- and south-facing shores will remain small through the week.
High Surf Advisory until 6 AM HST Sunday for Kauai North-Kauai Southwest-Kohala-Kona-Maui Central Valley North-Maui Windward West-Molokai North-Molokai West-Molokai Windward-Niihau-Oahu North Shore-Waianae Coast-Windward Haleakala.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Sunday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Windward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Kauai Channel- Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Maui County Windward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters.
