Strong high pressure well north of the state (40N to 45N) will produce breezy trade winds into the first half of next week. A slight weakening and veering of the trade winds is possible during the second half of next week as the high pressure moves northeast and low pressure potentially develops in the tropics to the SSW. An increase in moisture will bring enhanced showers to windward and mauka locations Saturday night into Sunday, and again Tuesday into Wednesday.
Overall weather pattern continues to favor breezy trades through the weekend. Periodic showers are possible across mainly windward sites, bringing tempo MVFR conditions as a result, but otherwise expecting mostly VFR conditions across the state.
AIRMET Sierra is in effect for windward Kauai, Oahu, Lanai, and Maui as a result of the aforementioned shower activity. This is expected to continue through at least the overnight hours.
AIRMET Tango also remains in effect for low-level turbulence downwind of terrain, and is expected to continue for the next several days as we remain under a breezy trade wind pattern.
Issued at 304 PM HST Sat Jul 11 2026 Strong high pressure will remain anchored far north of the state, driving fresh to strong trade winds across the region. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect across all Hawaiian coastal waters through Sunday afternoon, though marine zones outside of the typical windier waters look borderline. The trades will weaken slightly heading into early next week, which will likely lead to the SCA being scaled back to those windier waters and channels around Maui County and the Big Island.
The current small medium-period south-southwest (190-200 degrees) swell will hold surf just below the summer average through the evening. A small to moderate, long-period southwest swell (220 degrees) will fill in tonight through Monday, which will boost surf through early next week. Forerunners from this swell have started to fill in along south-facing shores, as evidenced by a slight boost in the 18 to 22 second band energy observed at the Barber's Point and Lanai buoys this afternoon.
Surf along east-facing shores will remain rough and choppy through the forecast period as fresh to strong trades hold. A series of small, moderate period west (270 to 280 degrees) swells will hold into early next week, followed by a small, long-period west-northwest (280 to 290 degrees) swell heading into midweek, sourced from Typhoon Bavi in the far western Pacific. No significant north or northwest swells are expected, so surf along north-facing shores is expected to remain flat to tiny.
Higher than normal high tides are expected due to upcoming King Tides, and with water levels running slightly higher than predicted, minor coastal flooding will be possible each afternoon starting tomorrow through Wednesday. However, minor coastal flooding is most likely to occur on Monday and Tuesday afternoons. Interests immediately along the coasts in low-lying or vulnerable areas should continue to monitor forecasts.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Sunday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Big Island Windward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Kauai Channel-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters- Maalaea Bay-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maui County Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters-Pailolo Channel.
