A broad ridge north of the Hawaiian Islands will dominate our weather into Saturday, with moderate to locally strong easterly trade winds. An upper level trough near the islands will help to enhance some of the trade winds showers.
Moderate to breezy trades will continue for the next few days. Low cigs and SHRA possible over windward and mauka locations. MVFR conds possible in SHRA, otherwise VFR prevails.
AIRMET Sierra remains in effect for mtn obsc for windward locations of the Big Island.
AIRMET Tango also remains in effect for mod low-level turb over and downwind of terrain across all islands.
Issued at 323 AM HST Mon May 25 2026 Fresh to strong easterly trades will persist through the first half of the week as the ridge remains north of the state. This will allow the Small Craft Advisory to continue, particularly across exposed waters and channels. Expect a gradual downward trend through the second half of the week and next weekend due to a weakness forming in the ridge as a front passes far to the north.
Surf along south facing shores will gradually lower today as a medium-period south swell lingers. A fresh long-period south swell will arrive Tuesday, then build to near the seasonal average through midweek before slowly easing Thursday. A more significant long-period south-southwest swell is expected by next weekend due to a storm-force low that passed southeast of New Zealand over the weekend. Satellite data showed a large fetch of 40 to 50 kt winds generating seas of 35 to just over 40 ft, focused toward Hawaii along the 190-degree directional band. Expect surf to begin building locally Friday with 20+ second forerunners, then peak above/around the advisory level over the weekend. For the long range, expect a similar trend to persist through the first week of June as the active pattern persists within our swell window down around New Zealand.
Surf along exposed north and west facing shores will lower today as a small north-northwest swell lingers, but will trend up once again on Tuesday as the late season North Pacific activity continues. Although the bulk of the energy from this next swell will be focused northeast of the islands, expect long-period forerunners to arrive Tuesday, with this source gradually building down the island chain thereafter. Above-average surf is likely by daybreak Wednesday near the peak before lowering Thursday.
Surf along east facing shores will remain rough through midweek, then gradually lower later in the week as the trades ease.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Big Island Windward Waters-Kauai Channel-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Maui County Leeward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Tuesday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Kaiwi Channel-Maalaea Bay-Maui County Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Pailolo Channel.
