Issued at 341 AM HST Sat Feb 7 2026
A cold front will move into Molokai this morning, then stall near Maui later today. This frontal boundary combined with increasing moisture and a disturbance aloft, will bring the potential for heavy rainfall, flash flooding, and a few rumbles of thunder through Monday. Breezy north to northeasterly winds will develop behind the front, with the trades then becoming very windy Sunday into Monday as strong high pressure builds north of the state. Conditions will gradually improve by mid to late next week, though breezy and showery trade wind weather is expected to persist.
Issued at 341 AM HST Sat Feb 7 2026
Currently at the surface, a slow moving cold front is located in the Kaiwi Channel just east of Oahu as of 3 am HST. Behind the front moderate to breezy north winds have filled in with frequent gusts of 35 to 40 mph observed across Kauai and Oahu. Ahead of the front light and variable winds prevail. Infrared satellite imagery depicts mostly cloudy to overcast conditions across the smaller islands, while clear to partly cloudy skies prevail over most of the Big Island. Radar imagery shows scattered to numerous showers across the smaller islands, with a few showers affecting east and southeast facing slopes of the Big Island. Main short term focus revolves around heavy rain and damaging wind potential over the weekend into early next week.
The cold front is expected to move into Molokai later this morning, then stall out over Maui later today. Low clouds and showers will continue to be most prevalent along and in close proximity to the front, with breezy north to northeast winds developing in its wake. The front will gradually weaken and dissipate during the next couple days, while strong high pressure builds north of the state. Abundant moisture will pool along the stalled front or its remnant moisture band through Monday, as a disturbance aloft moves overhead. This will maintain the threat for heavy rainfall and flash flooding across the area, with a couple rumbles of thunder not out of the question Sunday through Monday. As a result, a Flood Watch remains in effect from this afternoon through Monday afternoon.
In addition to the flooding threat, very windy conditions are forecast to develop this weekend and continue through early next week, as a strong area of high pressure builds north of the islands. A Wind Advisory will likely be required for the entire state Sunday through early Tuesday. Portions of the state could even see winds reach High Wind Warning levels. The strongest winds are expected in areas downslope of terrain, through valleys, and other local acceleration areas, and a High Wind Watch remains in effect for these locations Sunday through Monday.
Finally, the old temperatures aloft associated with the upper disturbance will support the potential for heavy snow on the Big Island summits as well. Dry mid-level air is expected over the summits today, with the arrival of deeper moisture expected sometime tonight. As a result, the timing of the Winter Storm Watch has been adjusted to begin tonight and run through Monday afternoon.
Conditions will gradually improve for the middle and latter portion of next week, although a somewhat showery and breezy trade wind pattern will likely persist.
Issued at 955 AM HST Sat Feb 7 2026
A stalled front over the central part of the state will be enhanced by an upper trough to the west today. AIRMET Sierra is posted for tempo mountain obscurations above 2000 feet for all smaller islands and likely continuing through the rest of today and tonight. MVFR with localized IFR conditions will occur throughout the day. Clouds will likely fill in over the Big Island later today making AIRMET Sierra possible here as well.
AIRMET Tango posted for tempo moderate turbulence across all smaller islands and adjacent waters due to the weather system over the state. Moderate turbulence may occur across all portions of these islands up to FL320.
Light icing is expected in cloud layer 120-FL230 from Kauai to Oahu.
Issued at 341 AM HST Sat Feb 7 2026
A front is currently over the Kaiwi Channel and is expected to stall and dissipate over Maui County later today. ASCAT pass overnight showed widespread strong northerly winds behind the front, and these strong winds should fill in over Maui County behind the dissipating front. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect across the waters surrounding the smaller islands today. Over Big Island waters, gentle to moderate east to southeast winds will give way to strengthening easterly winds by tonight. Thus the Small Craft Advisory for Big Island waters start this evening.
As the high expands and strengthens on Sunday, trade winds will strengthen to near gale to gale force over most waters Sunday afternoon through Monday. Due to the strengthening trades, a Gale Watch has been issued starting Sunday for all Hawaiian waters. In addition, expect heavy showers over most waters Saturday through Monday with some isolated thunderstorms especially over select leeward waters Sunday through Monday. Winds are expected to ease some on Tuesday, but still remain in the strong range with some near gales over the windier waters through at least Wednesday.
A large west-northwest swell (295-310 degrees) has peaked overnight across most areas and will be trending lower throughout the day today. Recent observations at buoys 51001 and 51101 northwest of Kauai indicate a steady decline over the past 8 hours and we should see surf drop below High Surf Warning thresholds this afternoon. A High Surf Warning (HSW) remains in place for exposed north and west facing shores for today, but it should be downgraded to an advisory later this afternoon and drop below advisory thresholds by Sunday morning. Over on the Big Island, we should see a steady rise throughout the day today along west facing shores and a High Surf Advisory is in effect. Small to moderate north-northwest to northwest swells will prevail through the remainder of next week.
Surf along east facing shores will significantly ramp up Sunday into Monday as the trade winds strengthen, with surf heights exceeding the advisory level by Sunday night. Surf heights may potentially get close to warning levels along east facing shores of Kauai and Oahu on Monday. Large east shore surf will slowly decline Tuesday into Wednesday, but remain elevated through the remainder of the week. Surf along south facing shores will remain small with some small background south-southwest energy expected throughout the first half of next week. Select southern exposures exposed to the wind swell will likely see some larger waves.
High Surf Warning until 6 PM HST this evening for Kauai North- Kauai Southwest-Maui Central Valley North-Maui Windward West- Molokai North-Molokai West-Molokai Windward-Niihau-Oahu North Shore-Waianae Coast-Windward Haleakala.
Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for Big Island East-Big Island Interior-Big Island North-Big Island South-Big Island Southeast-Central Oahu-East Honolulu-Ewa Plain-Haleakala Summit- Honolulu Metro-Kahoolawe-Kauai East-Kauai Mountains-Kauai North- Kauai South-Kauai Southwest-Kipahulu-Kohala-Kona-Koolau Leeward- Koolau Windward-Lanai Leeward-Lanai Mauka-Lanai South-Lanai Windward-Maui Central Valley North-Maui Central Valley South- Maui Leeward West-Maui Windward West-Molokai Leeward South- Molokai North-Molokai Southeast-Molokai West-Molokai Windward- Niihau-Oahu North Shore-Olomana-South Haleakala-South Maui/Upcountry-Waianae Coast-Waianae Mountains-Windward Haleakala.
High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through Monday afternoon for Big Island Interior-Central Oahu-Ewa Plain-Honolulu Metro- Kahoolawe-Kauai Mountains-Kauai South-Kauai Southwest-Kohala- Koolau Leeward-Lanai Leeward-Lanai Mauka-Lanai South-Lanai Windward-Maui Central Valley North-Maui Central Valley South- Maui Leeward West-Molokai Leeward South-Molokai West-Waianae Coast-Waianae Mountains.
High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Kohala-Kona.
Winter Storm Watch from 6 PM HST this evening through Monday afternoon for Big Island Summits.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Sunday for Alenuihaha Channel-Kaiwi Channel-Kauai Channel-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Maalaea Bay-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maui County Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters- Oahu Windward Waters-Pailolo Channel.
Gale Watch from Sunday morning through Monday afternoon for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters-Big Island Windward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Kauai Channel-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Maalaea Bay-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maui County Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters- Pailolo Channel.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM HST Sunday for Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters-Big Island Windward Waters.
