Strong trades will diminish during the next 24 hours and turn southeasterly Monday night into Tuesday. Showers increase over and around Kauai during midweek.
Gusty winds will continue tonight but will gradually decrease Monday as Hurricane Nolo moves further away. Shower activity has significantly decreased statewide, and only a few light showers embedded within the gusty trades remain. These will favor windward and mountain areas, but VFR conditions will prevail at most locations.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate to isolated severe turbulence below 9,000 feet over and immediately downwind of island terrain.
AIRMET Tango also remains in effect for sustained surface winds of 30 kt or greater across Maui County and the Big Island. This AIRMET will likely be on Monday as winds decrease.
Issued at 305 PM HST Sun Sep 27 2026
Strong to near gale force trade winds and large, rough seas will gradually diminish tonight and Monday as the center of Hurricane Nolo moves northwestward roughly 275 to 325 nm south and southwest of Kauai. During this time, high pressure far north of the state will erode, and as Nolo moves farther west, the pressure gradient over the islands between the ridge and Nolo will weaken and allow the trades to ease. As a result, the Gale Warning that was in place for all waters has been downgraded to a Small Craft Advisory (SCA). Monday night through Tuesday night, the official National Hurricane Center forecast calls for Nolo to move toward the north-northwest and remain over 200 nm west of Kauai. Expect moderate to locally strong winds to veer out of the east- southeast to southeast during this time, requiring a SCA for exposed waters near some islands. Winds will gradually ease and back more easterly Wednesday and Thursday as Nolo moves westward away from the islands.
The broad area of strong to near gale force trade winds north of Hurricane Nolo has generated large and rough seas across the region. This fetch of winds and east swell/seas is weakening from east to west, and seas at the PacIOOS Hilo buoy, which have been dropping rapidly since midnight, fell below 10 feet at midday. A similar steep decline is anticipated at the Pauwela buoy north of Maui this afternoon, followed by Oahu and Kauai overnight. As a result, the High Surf Advisory (HSA) for east-facing shores of Big Island and Maui County has been cancelled, and the HSA remains in place for Oahu and Kauai through tonight. East shore surf will slowly decline Monday through Wednesday, though small, medium- period swells from distant east Pacific hurricanes will maintain moderate surf during the remainder of the week.
A mix of long to medium period south-southwest swell and building short to medium period south swell from Hurricane Nolo will keep surf along south facing shores elevated during the next couple of days. The longer period swell alone would produce surf near seasonal average, but the hurricane swell may push heights to the HSA level Monday. Given uncertainty, we will have held off on issuing an advisory for now, even though we are forecasting HSA level surf Monday. As Nolo makes a turn toward the north- northwest, the likelihood of advisory level surf from the shifting southwest swell will increase late Monday and Tuesday, especially across Kauai and Oahu. By Wednesday, the swell will switch out of the west.
On north facing shores, a small medium period swell will maintain small surf through Monday, followed by a decline Tuesday. Some wrapping west swell from Hurricane Nolo is possible by Wednesday.
Wind Advisory until 6 AM HST Monday for Big Island North-Central Oahu-East Honolulu-Honolulu Metro-Kipahulu-Kohala-Koolau Leeward- Maui Central Valley North-Maui Central Valley South-Maui Leeward West-Maui Windward West-Molokai Leeward South-Molokai North- Molokai Southeast-Molokai West-Molokai Windward-Oahu North Shore- South Haleakala.
High Surf Advisory until 6 AM HST Monday for Kauai East-Kauai South-Koolau Windward-Olomana.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Monday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Big Island Windward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Kauai Channel-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maui County Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters-Pailolo Channel.
