Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Honolulu Hi

905 am hst Tue jul 21 2026

Aviation

Radar and satellite imagery depict showers OVER most windward sites with scattered showers making it to leeward sites. This will continue through the day, tapering off from east to west overnight. Moderate trades will continue.

AIRMET Sierra is in effect for the windward side of most islands due to ongoing shower activity. This is expected to continue until at least the early evening hours, and should clear from east to west overnight.

Marine

Issued at 345 AM HST Tue Jul 21 2026 The trade winds will hold at mostly moderate speeds through today as a subtle trough moves through the state. Trade winds strengthen to fresh and locally strong speeds Wednesday and could strengthen another notch late Thursday into Friday with widespread strong trade winds possible towards the end of the work week.

The High Surf Advisory for south facing shores has been cancelled due to the downward trend shown on the nearshore and offshore buoys. The current south-southeast swell should slowly fade over the next few days.

A powerful low pressure system tracked eastward well south of Tasmania and New Zealand last week. OSCAT pass showed a wide fetch of storm force winds with altimeter passes showing seas above 50 feet. This should translate into very long period forerunners arriving as early as early Wednesday morning and steadily filling in throughout the day Wednesday and peaking on Thursday out of the south-southwest. Surf should reach advisory thresholds by Thursday. The very long-period energy will make for inconsistent, but powerful waves when they arrive. Several days of advisory level surf is expected starting from Thursday and possibly continuing through Sunday as reinforcing energy arrives over the weekend.

Surf along east-facing shores will remain slightly below seasonal levels today as the trades ease upstream of the islands. The Hilo buoy this morning is showing a slight increase across the 12 to 14 second energy bands, which was likely generated by former TC Elida. Easterly swell from TC Elida should peak on Wednesday near seasonal levels. Stronger trade winds will also support an increase of short-period energy by Wednesday, This weekend, larger surf for east shores generated by Hurricane Fausto is possible and could bring advisory level surf along east facing shores as well.

Surf along north-facing shores will remain at flat to tiny levels through the weekend.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

None.

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