The cold front has dissipated into a trough and remains northwest of the Hawaiian Islands this evening. High pressure will build in from the north and allow the trade winds to strengthen from Monday through Wednesday. Brief passing showers will favor windward and mountain areas in the overnight to early morning hours through Wednesday and then over southeastern slopes and island interior sections from Thursday onward. Winds will weaken and veer slightly from a more east-southeast direction from Thursday on into the weekend. Shower activity will remain limited during this time period.
A weakening stationary boundary will allow for abundant high clouds and relatively light land/sea breezes to prevail across most TAF sites. This front will also allow for disorganized showers across Kauai and Oahu tonight, however confidence was on the lower end based on weather model guidance, so made use of VCSH and PROB30 where rain chances were felt to be the highest. MVFR conditions may prevail under shower activity, otherwise VFR is expected across most sites for the period.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect across the islands due to upper- level turbulence from FL200-400 due to this front, with conditions expected to improve into tomorrow as this system continues to weaken. Patchy mountain obscuration may occur due to the presence of this front, however observations and webcams suggest that the threat is not widespread enough to warrant an AIRMET at this time. Light icing is also possible in cloud layer 120-180.
Issued at 302 PM HST Sun Mar 1 2026.
A dissipated front will linger into Monday just northwest of the area. Fresh to locally strong easterly trades will build in by Tuesday as surface ridge strengthens to the north. Winds will maintain strength but veer east southeast towards the end of the week as another system approaches from the west.
Surf along north and west-facing shores will be above seasonal average as a northwest swell (310 degrees) is expected to impact through Monday. Surf should remain small though the week with a small northwest bump expected next weekend.
Surf along exposed east-facing shores will be a bit elevated due to a short-to medium-period northeast (40 degrees) swell, then decline Tuesday. However, period and choppy conditions are expected to return by Tuesday as fresh trade winds redevelop and expand upstream of the state.
Surf along south-facing shores will remain near the seasonal average into March.
None.
