Trade winds will strengthen through Monday, then persist through much of the week, bringing periods of showers to mainly windward and mauka locations. A Wind Advisory has been issued for the typically windier higher terrain areas, passes, and areas immediately south through west of mountains across all islands for Sunday through Sunday night. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all coastal waters.
Issued at 324 AM HST Sun Feb 15 2026
Satellite showed mostly cloudy skies across the state early this morning, with radar showing isolated showers mainly windward and mauka. Winds remained higher than normal, and a wind advisory is still in effect for the typical (mostly windward) windy areas. A small craft advisory is also in effect.
We start today under an upper level ridge axis which is sandwiched between two deep troughs, one to our northwest and one to our northeast. A 1045 mb surface high is centered well north of the state. A strong pressure gradient continues to create winds of above-normal speed, with sustained winds generally 5-15 mph and gusts running 15-30 mph. The surface high will weaken as it drifts slowly south-southeast today through Monday night. After that, it will become pretty much stationary through Thursday. Aloft, the upper level ridge will be gradually pushed east by the trough to our northwest. As this trough moves closer Tuesday into Wednesday, a surface low will form several hundred miles to our northwest (Wednesday night into Thursday). This low will be too far away to bring much weather to the state, with minimal increases in PW all the way through Friday. The main impact it will have is to change our winds from easterly trades to southeast winds. This alters the areas getting the "windward" showers slightly to the south of what we typically see. Apart from advisory level winds, it should be a rather benign week of weather. No other headlines are anticipated at this time.
Looking out to next weekend, there are indications that we could enter a period of light southwest flow aloft and very light winds at the surface. There are also signs that enhanced moisture could work its way into the area. This could lead to a sea- and land- breeze pattern, resulting in above-average precipitation in leeward areas. We will have to wait a few days to see if models continue to show this, as ensembles have not converged on this solution yet.
Issued at 324 AM HST Sun Feb 15 2026
Moderate to breezy trades through tonight with a slight increase for the next few days. Low cigs and SHRA should primarily affect windward and mauka areas with some limited spillover to leeward areas. MVFR conds possible in any SHRA otherwise VFR should prevail.
AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mtn obsc for windward portions of Kauai Oahu and Maui as well as the Big Island.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for mod turb downwind of terrain due to the breezy trade winds. This will likely be needed for the next several days with trades expected to increase.
Issued at 324 AM HST Sun Feb 15 2026 A strong high far north of the state will continue to produce windy and rough combined seas across all offshore and coastal waters through at least the middle of this week. Strong trade winds will strengthen today with widespread strong to near gale force winds expected to blow across the Hawaii region. The windier channels around Maui County should see winds increasing to gale force wind speeds. A Gale Warning has been issued through tonight for the Alenuihaha and Pailolo channels. Elsewhere, a Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect due to a combination of strong winds and high seas. Winds may ease slightly by Monday, but overall strong to near gales will continue across the state into Wednesday.
Surf along east facing shores continue to exceed advisory thresholds and will continue to build through tonight as the trade winds strengthen. A High Surf Advisory remains in effect for east facing shorelines of Kauai, Oahu, Molokai, Maui and the Big Island through Monday night. This HSA will likely be extended in time lasting into at least Wednesday due to the strong trade winds forecast to continue to blow across the region.
The current small medium period northwest to north-northwest swell will steadily decline today. Minimal energy is expected from the northwest through Wednesday, although select exposures will see some easterly wind driven swell. A small northwest bump may develop towards the second half of this week. Surf along south shores will remain small but a slight increase will occur for areas exposed to the trade wind swell.
Wind Advisory until 6 AM HST Monday for Big Island Interior-Big Island North-Big Island South-Big Island Southeast-East Honolulu- Honolulu Metro-Kahoolawe-Kauai Mountains-Kauai North-Kauai South- Kauai Southwest-Kipahulu-Kohala-Koolau Leeward-Lanai Leeward- Lanai Mauka-Lanai Windward-Maui Central Valley North-Maui Central Valley South-Maui Leeward West-Maui Windward West- Molokai Leeward South-Molokai North-Molokai Southeast-Molokai West-Molokai Windward-South Haleakala-Waianae Coast-Waianae Mountains-Windward Haleakala.
High Surf Advisory until 6 AM HST Tuesday for Big Island East- Big Island North-Big Island Southeast-East Honolulu-Kauai East- Kauai South-Kipahulu-Koolau Windward-Maui Windward West-Molokai Southeast-Molokai Windward-Olomana-Windward Haleakala.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Monday for Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters-Big Island Windward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Kauai Channel-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Maalaea Bay-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maui County Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters- Oahu Windward Waters.
Gale Warning until 6 AM HST Monday for Alenuihaha Channel- Pailolo Channel.
