Strong high pressure far north of the state will continue to produce breezy trades through the weekend and into the beginning of next week. An increase in moisture will bring enhanced showers to windward and mauka locations this weekend, particularly Saturday night into Sunday morning. The next plume of moisture could then arrive by the middle of next week, otherwise a typical summertime trade wind shower distribution is expected.
A large surface high of 1035 mb will linger over the far NE Pac for the next 10 days, keeping trades breezy with slight easing expected by the middle of next week. Showers will focus over typical windward and mountain areas with more shower activity during the overnight hours. An area of enhanced moisture is expected to move through the island chain early Sunday morning, boosting windward and mountain showers and even could allow a few leeward showers.
Next week looks like a fairly typical summertime trade wind pattern with a band of enhanced showers potentially moving through the island chain by mid week. Latest ensemble runs suggest next week that the ITCZ could become more active and the subtropical jet will shift N of the islands. Anticyclonic flow would build aloft SE of the islands, and deeper tropical moisture could gradually get established to our S. This pattern change doesn't look like it will impact us in the short term, but is something we will be watching in the following days.
Moderate to breezy trades will persist across the Hawaiian Islands and continue to bring pockets of enhanced low-level showers across predominately windward and mauka areas, occasionally spilling over into leeward areas. Expect VFR conditions to prevail across most locations, with occasional localized MVFR/IFR conditions in association with low clouds and shower activity.
AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mountain obscuration above 2500 feet for windward of all islands. This is expected to persist throughout the period as shower activity continues, even if showers prove to be intermittent at times.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate low-level turbulence over and downwind of terrain for all islands. This AIRMET will likely continue through the next several days.
Strong high pressure centered north of the state will remain nearly stationary through the forecast period. Fresh to strong trade winds are expected across the entirety of the coastal waters. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect through Friday afternoon for all Hawaiian waters. Trades will remain fresh to strong through the weekend so the SCA may need to be extended.
The current small medium-period south-southwest (190-200 degrees) swell will continue to gradually decline today. A small to moderate, long- period southwest swell (220 degrees) is expected to fill in Saturday into early next week, but due to its Tasman source, could be more inconsistent than the current swell.
Surf along east-facing shores will remain rough and choppy through the forecast period as fresh to strong trades hold. A series of small, moderate- to long-period west (270 to 280 degrees) swells are expected to arrive late Friday and hold into early next week, sourced from Typhoon Bavi in the far western Pacific. Surf along north-facing shores is expected to remain flat to tiny with no significant swells forecast from the north or northwest.
Looking ahead, higher than normal high tides will be possible beginning during the latter half of this weekend. Interests immediately along the coasts in low-lying or vulnerable areas should continue to monitor forecasts for possible coastal flooding due to the King Tides from Sunday through the first half of next week.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for all Hawaiian waters-
