A weak upper low combined with a tropical wave passing south of the islands will ramp up humidity levels and keep periods of wet weather in the forecast through Friday. Drier trends are forecast for the weekend.
Issued at 351 PM HST Thu Nov 5 2026 Breezy trades will continue for the next few days. An area of enhanced moisture moving in from the east will affect windward portions of the Big Island and to a lesser extent, the rest of the islands tonight into tomorrow morning, bringing more widespread MVFR with pockets of IFR for windward areas. Isolated showers with brief MVFR conditions could also spill over to leeward areas, mostly during the evening and early morning hours.
AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mtn obsc for windward portions of Kauai and Oahu due to persistent showers. Conds should become worse later tonight as more moisture moves in and the AIRMET could expand to include more islands.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for mod turb lee of terrain and should remain in effect for next few days.
Issued at 351 PM HST Thu Nov 5 2026 Fresh to strong trade winds with periods of near gales will prevail through the weekend as high pressure persists north of the state. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in place for all Hawaiian Waters for a combination of winds and elevated seas. The SCA was extended through Saturday night and will likely remain in place through at least Sunday night as a disturbance or tropical cyclone passing a couple hundred miles to the south keeps the local pressure gradient tight. Winds are expected to ease slightly as the ridge to our north erodes and the potential tropical cyclone moves away to the southwest. The SCA will likely be trimmed back to the typical windy waters around Big Island and Maui sometime Monday or Tuesday.
A long-period north-northwest (325 to 345 degree) swell will peak through evening and produce surf well above High Surf Advisory thresholds along exposed north and west facing shores from Kauai to Maui. Recent observations from NOAA buoy 51001 northwest of Kauai showed the swell at around 9 feet at 16 seconds, and swell energy at the PacIOOS Waimea buoy continues to slowly rise this afternoon. Surf will decline below advisory thresholds late Friday as the north-northwest swell declines. Reinforcing medium period energy out of the north-northwest (330 to 340 degree) should arrive late Saturday into Sunday. Surf could approach advisory thresholds during its peak early Sunday morning. Another large northwest to north-northwest swell is Wednesday or Thursday of next week.
A small south-southwest swell is expected to fill in overnight. This small bump should peak Friday with waves slightly above average for this time of year Friday into Saturday along south facing shores. Surf along east-facing shores will stay elevated and choppy through much of the week due to the strong trades. Select northeast exposures should see long-period energy from the large north-northwest swell today through tonight.
High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST Friday for north and west facing shores.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Sunday for all Hawaiian coastal waters and channels.
