A breezy and stable trade wind flow will prevail through much of the week as surface high pressure holds north of the state. Pockets of moisture moving in the trades will focus rainfall over windward and mauka areas with showers briefly passing over leeward areas.
A weakening stationary front over the islands will continue to dissipate overnight with a ridge to the north maintaining moderate to locally strong trade winds across the region. Clouds and showers will be focused over the windward slopes, but the strong winds could carry some showers to leeward areas at times. Generally VFR conditions are expected, with the exception of the windward side of the Big Island. AIRMET Sierra is in place there for mountain obscuration, and that will likely remain in place through tonight and possibly into Tuesday.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect due to the mechanical turbulence to the lee of the mountains below 8000 feet. Anticipate this AIRMET to remain posted beyond 24 hours.
Dominant high pressure north of the area will maintain fresh to locally strong trade winds through most of the week and into the weekend with slight day to day fluctuations. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is in effect through Tuesday for the combination of winds for most waters and seas above 10 feet for areas exposed to a moderate north- northwest swell. The 10 foot seas will drop off tonight, but the winds will remain, therefore the SCA will likely be extended further into the week.
The moderate, north-northwest swell will continue to subside tonight and surf along north and west facing shores has dropped just below advisory levels. Surf will continue to decline Tuesday and then become small by Wednesday. Another moderate, long period northwest swell arrives Wednesday night and will likely push north and west shore surf back to advisory levels Thursday into Friday. A medium- period swell fills in on Saturday, likely prolonging moderate to large surf action into the weekend.
The current moderate, medium period south swell will continue a gradual decline through Tuesday. South shore surf will be tiny through much of the week with little southerly background energy reaching the islands. East-facing shores will see an increase in trade wind swell as strong northeast winds remain. Surf along east- facing shores will stay big and choppy through much of the week with the trades.
Wind Advisory until 6 AM HST Tuesday for Big Island North-Kohala- Lanai Mauka-Maui Central Valley South-Maui Leeward West-Maui Windward West-South Haleakala.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Tuesday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Kaiwi Channel-Kauai Channel-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Maalaea Bay-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maui County Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters-Pailolo Channel.
