A surface trough, along with moisture associated with the remnants of Norbert will continue to move westward across the state today, bringing more enhanced showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms to mainly the western end of the state. Some thunderstorm activity will also be possible this afternoon over the Kona slopes on Big Island. Drier air will move back in this weekend behind the departing trough. Moisture from the remnants of Tropical Depression 15-E may bring another round of enhanced trade showers by the middle of next week.
No major changes to the forecast today, as we transition from a moist airmass with a vicinity trough to drier trades tomorrow. Today, look for VFR to MVFR cloud decks and isolates showers to pass through the region. Stronger showers will likely bring a reduction in visibility as well, perhaps down to MVFR at times. There is a non-zero chance for isolated thunderstorms as well over Kauai and the Kona slopes of the Big Island; however, chances are generally around 15% or less and confidence is too low to add to the TAF. Finally, breezy trades persist today with the typical light and variable breezes within wind sheltered areas.
AIRMET SIERRA will remain in effect this morning for island-wide windward exposure mountain obscuration near or above 2,500 ft. Will need to evaluate to see if this will be allowed to end on time or need to be extended.
As of 0830 AM HST, no other AIRMETs are in effect.
Trade winds will strengthen slightly to fresh to locally strong levels through the weekend and persist through at least the first half of next week. A Small Craft Advisory is posted for the typical windy waters around Maui County and Big Island through tonight, and will likely continue into next week for these waters.
Surf along south-facing shores will remain above average through the weekend. The current long-period south-southwest swell will peak today, then gradually decline through the weekend as the next south swell fills in late Saturday through Monday, possibly nearing advisory criteria.
Moderate surf along east-facing shores will persist over the next several days as be dominated by the trades as fresh to locally strong trades continue. Surf along north-facing shores will remain flat to tiny, with a minor bump possible early next week.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Saturday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Big Island Windward Waters-Maalaea Bay-Pailolo Channel.
