Moderate to locally breezy north-northeast to northeast trade winds will strengthen this afternoon and evening and become gusty over leeward areas. A weakening trough passing through the state this morning will produce scattered showers over windward and mauka areas with brief downpours possible. A drier airmass will filter over the western half of the state this afternoon, while showery conditions could persist over the windward areas of the eastern half of the state through tonight. Drier, cooler air will fill in state wide by Sunday with scattered showers returning at the start of the work week.
Issued at 908 AM HST Sat Mar 28 2026
A band of showers with occasional MVFR conditions will impact Windward Maui and the Big Island today. Moderate NNE trades will continue, strengthening this afternoon in response to deepening low pressure northeast of the state. Winds are expected to weaken Sunday.
AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration remains in effect for windward Molokai and Maui, and N through E Big Island. This may be needed through the day, but confidence is low.
Issued at 400 AM HST Sat Mar 28 2026
A gale force low northeast of the islands will interact with high pressure building in from the northwest to strengthen the northeasterly trade winds to fresh to strong speeds today. The current Small Craft Advisory (SCA) covering the leeward waters and channels around the smaller islands will expand to encompass the waters around the Big Island this morning as the stronger winds progress down the island chain. The SCA has been extended through Sunday evening, but will likely need to be expanded to all coastal marine zones on Sunday as seas of 10 ft or greater generated by the gale force low begin to move into the area. SCA conditions will likely continue at least through the first half of the week for at least some portion of the coastal waters.
Surf will decrease slightly along north-facing shores through the day today as a small medium- period northwest swell fades. A short-period northeast swell will continue to bring slightly below average surf to east-facing shores, though as trade winds strengthen today, surf heights will build slightly along east- facing shores.
Another small bump in the northwest swell arriving Sunday night will be overshadowed by a much larger medium-period north- northeast swell on Sunday. Surf will quickly build through the day for north- and east-facing shores. High Surf Advisory (HSA) conditions appear likely to develop sometime on Sunday, with the swell peaking late Sunday and holding through Monday, before fading gradually through the rest of the week. HSA conditions may also be possible for west- facing shores of the Big Island, particularly near Kua Bay, as the north-northeasterly swell works in through the gap between Maui and the Big Island. Some shores of west Maui also see elevated surf from this swell, but it is not currently expected to meet HSA criteria.
Along south-facing shores, small background pulses will keep surf heights above flat conditions through early next week, with a slight bump possible as one of these pulses arrives today.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Sunday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Big Island Windward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Kauai Channel-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Northwest Waters-Maalaea Bay-Maui County Leeward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Pailolo Channel.
