High pressure north of the state will maintain moderate trade winds today, with the trades easing Friday and Saturday as a front approaches from the west. Fairly dry conditions will prevail during the next few days, with light showers limited primarily to windward and mauka areas. A weakening front may bring an increase in rain chances Sunday and Monday, as it moves into the western islands. A more typical and breezy trade wind pattern then looks to return by the middle of next week.
Issued at 317 AM HST Thu Feb 26 2026
Currently at the surface, a 1028 mb high is centered about 1400 miles north of Honolulu, and is driving moderate trade winds across the island chain early this morning. Infrared satellite imagery shows partly to mostly cloudy conditions, with cloud coverage most prevalent in windward and mauka areas. Radar imagery shows isolated to scattered light showers affecting windward slopes and coasts, with rain free conditions in leeward areas. Main short term focus revolves around rain chances during the next few days.
High pressure to the distant north will maintain moderate trades today. A weakening front will approach the islands from the west Friday and Saturday, easing the trades and shifting boundary layer winds around to the east-southeast. A period of rather dry weather is expected to persist across the islands today through Saturday, as the deeper moisture associated with the front will remain to the west and northwest of the state.
The operational GFS and ECMWF, there ensembles, and AI versions are remain split on the handling of the pattern evolution Sunday into early next week. Roughly half support keeping the deeper moisture west and south of the state, while the other half indicate the deeper moisture moving into at least the western islands. Overall, will take a blended forecast approach, showing an increase in rain chances mainly over the western islands Sunday and Monday, with a transition back to a breezy trade wind pattern Tuesday through the middle of next week.
Issued at 317 AM HST Thu Feb 26 2026
Moderate to breezy trades expected. Low cigs and SHRA possible in windward and mauka locations with isol spillover to leeward sides. MVFR conds possible otherwise VFR prevails.
No AIRMETs in effect.
Issued at 317 AM HST Thu Feb 26 2026
Fresh to strong easterly trade winds will persist through tonight, then weaken and veer out of the southeast Friday into the weekend as a cold front approaches and moves into the area. This will allow localized land and sea breeze conditions to develop near the coasts over the weekend.
Surf along exposed north- and east-facing shores will remain elevated today due to a lingering north-northeast swell. This, combined with fresh onshore trade winds, will continue to generate rough conditions along east-facing shores, prompting an extension of the advisory through today. A downward trend is expected Friday through the weekend as the swell eases and the trades diminish.
A fresh, short- to medium-period north-northeast swell from a gale centered around 1200 nautical miles northeast of the state is forecast to arrive over the weekend. This new swell will support surf along exposed coasts through the weekend and into Monday. Short-period, choppy conditions are expected to return by midweek as fresh trade winds redevelop and expand upstream of the state.
Surf along north- and west-facing shores will trend upward beginning Saturday as a fresh west-northwest swell arrives from a gale located around 1500 nautical miles northwest of the state, south of the Aleutians near the Date Line. This swell will peak early next week before gradually lowering into midweek.
Surf along south-facing shores will remain near the seasonal average into March but could trend up in the long range, possibly by the second week of March, due to a potential gale passing within our swell window south to southeast of New Zealand over the weekend.
High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Big Island East-Big Island North-Kauai East-Koolau Windward-Maui Windward West-Molokai North-Molokai Windward-Olomana-Windward Haleakala.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Maalaea Bay-Pailolo Channel.
