Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Honolulu Hi

918 am hst Wed jul 1 2026

Synopsis

A ridge to the north of the islands will maintain moderate to locally breezy trade winds into the weekend. Clouds and showers will be focused along windward and mauka areas this morning. A drier airmass moving in from the east is expected to limit shower activity into the weekend. Higher than normal dewpoints will continue to bring muggier conditions to the islands today.

Aviation

Moderate to locally breezy trades will continue through the holiday weekend. Low cigs and SHRA expected along windward and mauka locations. MVFR conds possible in SHRA otherwise VFR should prevail.

AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mtn obsc for windward portions of Kauai, Oahu, Molokai, Maui and the Big Island. These conditions will likely last through the morning, and gradually improve starting this afternoon.

AIRMET Tango is currently in effect for mod turb downwind of terrain due to the breezy trade winds. Conditions will last through today.

Marine

Surface high pressure far north of the islands will maintain moderate to locally strong trade winds through Thursday before declining slightly to become moderate to fresh through the rest of the forecast period. The Small Craft Advisory (SCA) has been extended through Thursday afternoon for the windier waters and channels around Maui County and the Big Island.

A small, medium-period south swell will gradually decline through tonight. This fading swell combined with a series of small, medium- to long-period south-southwesterly swells, will deliver below-average surf along south-facing shores through Friday. Over the holiday weekend and into early next week, a moderate, long-period south-southwest swell will arrive, boosting surf heights to near High Surf Advisory levels.

Surf along east facing shores will remain rough and choppy through Thursday as trade winds remain locally strong. Surf along north facing shores will remain flat to tiny through the forecast period, with a minor uptick possible Friday into the holiday weekend as a small, medium-period northwest swell arrives.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Thursday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Maalaea Bay-Pailolo Channel.

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