Strong high pressure north of the Hawaiian Islands will maintain breezy to locally windy trades supporting windward and mauka showers. As the high begins to drift farther east, trades will ease to moderate to breezy levels, persisting through the rest of the week. Some models are hinting at unsettled weather returning to the islands by the weekend, but strengthening trades with periods of windward and mauka showers is looking like the more likely outcome for the weekend into early next week.
Breezy trades continue across most of the island chain, with wind speeds expected to gradually decrease over the next couple of days. Light windward showers are also expected under this pattern, especially for Maui and the Big Island, which may lead to localized MVFR conditions.
AIRMET Sierra remains in effect for mtn obsc above 030 for N thru SE sections of Maui and the Big Island through today.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for mod turb below 070 for leeward sides of the islands.
Strong high pressure far north of the state will continue to produce rough marine conditions across the state through next week as another strong high builds far north of the state Friday into the weekend. The current strong to near gale force trade winds will ease slightly by Thursday before picking back up over the weekend. Widespread strong to near gale force trades are expected by Sunday with some of the windier channels such as Alenuihaha Channel approaching gale force. Small Craft Advisory is in effect across all waters due to the strong trade winds with seas in excess of 10 feet for exposed coastal waters.
Strong trade winds will continue to bring advisory level surf to east facing shores through tonight. Latest nearshore buoy observations just started to show a downward trend in wave heights and we should see a gradual downward trend tonight. Surf is expected to fall just below advisory levels by Thursday, but will remain rough and elevated for the foreseeable future. Trades are expected to restrengthen over the weekend into early next week, which will produce another round of advisory level surf and possibly warning level surf along east facing shores of Oahu and Kauai.
Small to medium northwest swells will continue through the weekend with smaller surf expected during the first half of next week. Currently we have a small northwest swell that filled in during the day today and will be followed by a slightly larger northwest swells Thursday and Friday. Small along south facing shores will continue to remain small with some background windswell for select exposures.
Thunderstorms remain a possibility in the offshore waters to the southwest and west of the Hawaiian coastal waters, due to an upper level trough in the area. While this upper level feature is expected to weaken over the next couple of days, a new developing mid to upper level trough moving in from the northwest will maintain the possibility for thunderstorms through the weekend.
High Surf Advisory until 6 AM HST Thursday for Big Island East- Big Island North-Big Island Southeast-East Honolulu-Kahoolawe- Kauai East-Kipahulu-Koolau Windward-Maui Windward West-Molokai Southeast-Molokai Windward-Olomana-South Haleakala-Windward Haleakala.
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM HST Thursday for Big Island Summits.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Thursday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Big Island Windward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Kauai Channel-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters- Maalaea Bay-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maui County Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters-Pailolo Channel.
