Moderate trades give way to expanding land and sea breezes through Sunday. Trades then gradually strengthen through next week. A few light showers may develop over western slopes during the next 36 hours, but otherwise showers remain focused windward and mauka.
AIRMET Sierra is posted for tempo mountain obscurations above 2500 feet for windward to southeast sections of Oahu, Molokai, Maui and Big Island due to a band of showery clouds anchored across these areas this morning. Expect ongoing MVFR cigs and visibility to continue at times throughout the day into tonight. No other AIRMETs are expected today.
Gentle to moderate trade winds expected through tonight becoming lighter on Sunday allowing for sea breezes to set up over the islands.
Moderate to fresh trade winds will steadily ease into the light to moderate range by Sunday as the surface ridge weakens in response to broad low pressure developing near the Aleutian Islands. This will translate to localized land and sea breezes near the coasts late this weekend through early next week. A return of moderate to fresh easterly trades is likely by midweek as the ridge restrengthens.
An active pattern is in store for surf along south-facing shores as we head into June due to a series of recent gale- to storm- force lows passing through our swell window near New Zealand over the past week. Nearshore buoys have been observing around a 4 ft, 18 second south swell this morning, which supports advisory-level surf today. Expect similar conditions to hold through Sunday. As the swell gradually begins to ease Monday, long-period forerunners from the next south-southwest swell are expected to arrive. Heights may briefly dip below the advisory level by Monday night, but as the next swell fills in, surf will likely return to advisory levels Tuesday through midweek as it peaks. A gradual downward trend is then expected through the second half of next week.
A combination of advisory-level surf this weekend and water levels hovering above predicted levels could lead to some wave runup issues, with water sweeping across areas of beaches that typically remain dry during the afternoon peak daily tide cycles. Water levels will steadily lower each day early next week as the next large south swell arrives.
Surf along north-facing shores will remain small through Monday, then potentially trend up as a small north swell arrives by midweek.
Expect surf along east-facing shores to continue to ease through early next week as trade winds relax. Then, a slight increase is likely Tuesday and Wednesday due to a combination of strengthening trades and a wrapping north swell.
High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST Sunday for south facing shores of all Hawaiian islands.
