Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Honolulu Hi

858 am hst Fri Mar 13 2026

Synopsis

A powerful Kona storm will near the state producing periods of hazardous weather impacts across the Hawaiian Islands through the weekend. Expect a combination of threats ranging from significant flash flooding, damaging winds, strong to severe thunderstorms, and snow and ice over the highest Big Island summits. Southerly to southwesterly winds will be strongest from Friday to Saturday and will produce damaging wind gusts. The highest threats for damaging winds remain along north and east of the island mountains. Unsettled wet weather conditions with decreasing southwesterly wind trends will continue into early next week. This Kona storm begins to lift northward on Monday, and unsettled weather will start to ease across the Hawaii region. High pressure will build back in north of the state on Wednesday allowing trade winds to return spreading from north to south down the island chain reaching Maui and the Big Island by Thursday morning.

Aviation

Issued at 839 AM HST Fri Mar 13 2026

Widespread showers, some heavy, along with isolated thunderstorms, will continue through tonight. Expect widespread MVFR to IFR with local LIFR. Winds will remain primarily out of the south and increase through the day. Widespread gusts up to and over 35 kt are forecast.

AIRMET Sierra remains in effect all islands due to mountain obscuration. This is expected to remain in effect through tonight.

AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate upper-level turbulence between FL240 and FL360. Tango has also been updated to include low-level turbulence due to strong surface winds. Both of these are expected to remain in effect through tonight.

AIRMET Zulu is also in effect, as high clouds from these showers present icing concerns between 120 and FL260. This is also expected to continue through tonight.

Marine

Issued at 326 AM HST Fri Mar 13 2026

Prepare for gusty winds, steep and fast building seas, and low visibility in heavy showers across the entire marine waters as this strong Kona storm event continues to impact the coastal and offshore waters through the weekend. Strong to gale southerly winds will continue through the weekend as a Gale Warning is in effect all waters around Kauai and Oahu through tonight. Winds are expected to near Maui County Saturday and Saturday night to near gale- force, so a Gale Watch has been posted for those areas during that time. These strong to gale- force winds will last into the weekend as the band of thunderstorms push eastward across the forecast area through Saturday. The winds by early next week will shift westerly and diminish as the storm gains increasing distance far to the north of the islands.

A small, short to medium period west to west-northwest swell will bring small to moderate surf to north and west facing shores through the weekend. Kauai will block some of this swell energy from reaching Oahu and Maui, but it will make it into the west facing shores of the Big Island. Additionally, a small, medium period north swell is expected to build through the day and peak Saturday before gradually declining.

Rough and choppy surf will continue along south-facing shores due to the south to southeast wind direction. These south winds will intensify this morning causing south shore surf to build into the weekend, likely just below advisory levels. Once southerly winds diminish early next week, a small to moderate, long-period south swell generated by a gale force low east- southeast of New Zealand will arrive along south-facing shores and build into midweek. Surf along east-facing shores will remain below seasonal levels as south to southeast winds prevail.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for Kauai East-Kauai Mountains-Kauai North-Kauai South-Kauai Southwest-Niihau.

High Wind Warning until 6 AM HST Sunday for Central Oahu-East Honolulu-Ewa Plain-Honolulu Metro-Kahoolawe-Kauai East-Kauai Mountains-Kauai North-Kauai South-Kauai Southwest-Kipahulu- Koolau Leeward-Koolau Windward-Lanai Leeward-Lanai Mauka-Lanai South-Lanai Windward-Maui Central Valley North-Maui Central Valley South-Maui Leeward West-Maui Windward West-Molokai Leeward South-Molokai North-Molokai Southeast-Molokai West- Molokai Windward-Niihau-Oahu North Shore-Olomana-South Haleakala- South Maui/Upcountry-Waianae Coast-Waianae Mountains-Windward Haleakala.

Flood Watch through late Saturday night for Central Oahu-East Honolulu-Ewa Plain-Honolulu Metro-Koolau Leeward-Koolau Windward- Oahu North Shore-Olomana-Waianae Coast-Waianae Mountains.

Flood Watch through late Sunday night for Big Island East-Big Island Interior-Big Island North-Big Island South-Big Island Southeast-Haleakala Summit-Kahoolawe-Kipahulu-Kohala-Kona-Lanai Leeward-Lanai Mauka-Lanai South-Lanai Windward-Maui Central Valley North-Maui Central Valley South-Maui Leeward West-Maui Windward West-Molokai Leeward South-Molokai North-Molokai Southeast-Molokai West-Molokai Windward-South Haleakala-South Maui/Upcountry-Windward Haleakala.

High Wind Warning until 6 PM HST Sunday for Big Island Summits- Haleakala Summit.

Wind Advisory until 6 AM HST Sunday for Big Island East-Big Island Interior-Big Island North-Big Island South-Big Island Southeast-Kohala-Kona.

Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM HST Saturday for Big Island Summits.

Gale Warning until 6 AM HST Saturday for Kaiwi Channel-Kauai Channel-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters.

Gale Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for Alenuihaha Channel-Kaiwi Channel-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maui County Windward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters.

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