Locally breezy trades will persist through the day today, then gradually weaken through the weekend as a broad low pressure system developing to the far north disrupts the surface ridge extending over the islands. Clouds and showers will favor windward and mauka areas through Friday, then sea breezes will shift the focus to island interiors each afternoon over the weekend. Early next week, increasing moisture will move up the island chain from the southeast, increasing rain chances for the eastern end of the state Monday and Tuesday. Moderate to locally breezy trades are expected to return by midweek next week.
Trades continue at moderate to breezy levels through Friday, then decrease Saturday and Sunday. Showers should continue mainly windward and mauka this afternoon, but become less numerous.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect across all islands down wind of mountains for occasional moderate turbulence due to breezy trades. This AIRMET may be cancelled within the next 24-48 hours.
AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mountain obscuration on windward Oahu through 22Z, with conditions expected to improve afterward.
Fresh to strong trade winds will persist into early Friday then ease to moderate levels during the weekend. A rather strong surface high centered far northwest of Hawaii will hold into tonight, and a Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect for the typically windy waters around Big Island and Maui County. The pressure gradient over the islands will start to weaken on Friday as the high slowly loses strength, and trades will begin a slow decline, though winds will be at borderline SCA strength through the day. Trade winds will ease to moderate levels Saturday through Monday, followed by gradual strengthening Tuesday.
A series of south-southwest swells will produce elevated surf along southern shores through much of the week. A mix of south and south-southwest swells will maintain surf near seasonal average though tonight, with long period forerunners of a larger south-southwest swell building on Friday. Even though the bulk of this swell was aimed just east of Hawaii, surf along south facing shores is expected to exceed the High Surf Advisory (HSA) threshold of 10 feet by Friday night or Saturday. This swell will peak Saturday night, and after a gradual decline Sunday, a potentially larger pulse of overlapping south-southwest swell arrive on Monday. These swells will keep south shore surf near or above the HSA threshold through Thursday.
The current small northwest swell will slowly lower Friday and Saturday and will fade Sunday. A small north swell will likely produce surf near seasonal average for north facing shores late Tuesday or Wednesday into Thursday.
Expect surf to remain around seasonal average into early Friday, then slowly decline through early next week as trade winds ease. A slight increase is possible Tuesday and Wednesday due to a combination of rebuilding trade winds and a wrapping north swell.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Friday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Maalaea Bay-Pailolo Channel.
