A ridge to the north of the islands will weaken slightly the rest of the week, allowing trade winds to diminish briefly to moderate levels tonight into Friday before gradually restrengthening back to locally breezy levels over the weekend. Clouds and showers will remain focused mainly along windward and mauka areas into early next week. A drier airmass moving in from the east is expected to limit shower activity into the weekend.
Moderate to locally breezy trades will continue through the holiday weekend, focusing low clouds and limited showers over windward and mountain areas. MVFR conditions are possible in showers, otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to prevail.
No AIRMETs are currently in effect.
Latest model guidance suggests the surface high pressure far north of the islands will maintain moderate to locally strong trade winds through the weekend. Consequently, the Small Craft Advisory (SCA) for the typical windy waters and channels around Maui County and the Big Island has been extended into the weekend. The SCA will likely remain in place through the forecast period as the high remains nearly stationary with minor fluctuations in strength.
A small, medium period south swell will linger today just below the summertime average. Forerunners of a small, long period south swell will fill in this afternoon and evening and peak tonight and Friday. This swell will help maintain near to just below summertime average surf into the weekend. A moderate, long period south-southwest swell will fill in Saturday afternoon and evening, boosting surf heights to near High Surf Advisory levels Sunday into Monday. This swell will slowly fade through the middle of next week.
Surf along east facing shores will remain rough and choppy through the forecast period as moderate to strong trades hold. Surf along north facing shores will remain tiny today with a minor uptick Friday into the holiday weekend as a small, medium period northwest swell arrives. Tiny to near flat conditions for north facing shores will return next week.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Saturday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Maalaea Bay-Pailolo Channel.
