An upper level trough anchored over the islands will maintain high chances for periods of statewide moderate to locally heavy rainfall. Weather conditions should improve by Sunday morning, but widely scattered showers will persist through the day. Energy moving into the trough from the north Monday will increase the probabilities for return moderate to locally heavy precipitation that will likely lead to flooding. The trough is forecast to lift northeast Tuesday. This will allow for drier mid week conditions under light to breezy trade winds.
Issued at 345 PM HST Sat Feb 21 2026
Most areas will remain VFR overnight as showers decrease in intensity. Brief MVFR/IFR are still possible in isolated thunderstorms and scattered showers, however, as the atmosphere remains unstable. Winds will be uncharacteristically weak tonight through Sunday. Trades will return Monday in the western end of the state, Monday night to Maui County, and Tuesday on the Big Island. This will bring an increase in windward and mauka showers.
Airmet Sierra remains in effect for Oahu, Molokai, and Maui.
Airmet Tango is in effect for all areas for turbulence between 10kft and 30kft.
Airmet Zulu is in effect for the entire area from 12kft to FL240.
Issued at 345 PM HST Sat Feb 21 2026
Winds will be light and variable, with overnight with land breezes and daytime sea breezes, beginning tonight. Seas will also continue to drop along with surf along east facing shores. Expect a wet pattern to continue with isolated thunderstorms due to an upper disturbance in the area.
Surf along exposed north and east-facing shores will quickly build through the day Monday as a long-period north-northeast swell from a broad storm-force low evolves off the northwest Pacific coast this weekend. A large area of northerly gales between this system and a 1048 mb blocking high centered over the Aleutians will continue to expand southward through the weekend, with the head of the fetch reaching less than 1,000 nautical miles from the state. Heights will reach warning levels for exposed north- and east-facing shores by late Monday through Tuesday. Although a gradual downward trend is anticipated by midweek, additional pulses from this same system will keep surf above advisory levels for east-facing shores through much of the week. This swell direction will bring surf into some typically protected areas such as Kua Bay, West Maui, and exposed shores of Lanai.
Other impacts from this north-northeast swell direction could include significant erosion along some coasts and accretion at other locations as sand shifts opposite the typical swell direction, particularly along north-facing shores. Additionally, overwash along vulnerable sections of coastline and roadways will be possible beginning Monday night during high tide cycles. Mariners can also anticipate harbor surges at Kahului and Hilo.
Surf along exposed west-facing shores will rise early next week as a long-period northwest swell arrives from a recent broad storm- force low over the far northwest Pacific.
Flood Watch until 6 AM HST Sunday for Central Oahu-East Honolulu- Ewa Plain-Honolulu Metro-Kauai East-Kauai Mountains-Kauai North- Kauai South-Kauai Southwest-Koolau Leeward-Koolau Windward- Niihau-Oahu North Shore-Olomana-Waianae Coast-Waianae Mountains.
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM HST Sunday for Big Island Summits.
