A surface Kona low pressure system continues to meander northeastward away from the Hawaiian Islands, producing bands of moderate to heavy showers and embedded isolated thunderstorms across much of the state, namely Maui County and the Big Island. As the system exits the vicinity of the islands, a broad area of high pressure fills in its wake Monday, allowing trades to return from west to east, persisting through the remainder of the week. Windward showers will initially be scattered to numerous Monday, but will decrease to a more typical trade wind regime with isolated to scattered showers across windward and mauka areas.
Bands of showers and embedded isolated thunderstorms continue to move over Maui County and the Big Island. The ongoing Kona low will support further rain bands, mainly across Maui County and the Big Island, and to a lesser extent on Oahu. Winds will remain primarily out of the south to southwest until late today. This evening, trades will begin spreading back into the state from west to east. Expect widespread MVFR conditions over the eastern end of the state through sometime Monday, with locally LIFR conditions under showers and any thunderstorms.
AIRMET Sierra is in effect for Molokai, Maui, and Lanai due to IFR in widespread low ceilings and showers and is expected to continue through the afternoon. AIRMET Sierra is also in effect for Oahu and the Big Island due to mountain obscuration due to showers and low clouds. This is also expected to continue through the afternoon.
AIRMET Zulu remains for light icing in layer 140-FL260 will also persist, mainly over the central portion of the state where the thick high clouds continue to stream over from the southwest.
Bands of moderate to heavy showers, with an occasional embedded thunderstorm, will primarily impact the waters surrounding Maui County and Big Island through Monday. A boundary will pass across the waters from the north through Monday. Gentle variable to southerly breezes will swing north northeast and strengthen to moderate speeds through Monday. Moderate trades will become better re-established early this week with widely scattered light showers as the upper trough passes east of the waters by Tuesday morning.
Northeast swell that peaked yesterday will be on the decline through Monday. Another small north swell that peaked earlier today will reinforce north swell and maintain elevated north- facing shore surf today. Background south southwest swell will maintain small south-facing shore surf through the remainder of the week. East-facing shore surf will stay slightly elevated today due to the fading northeast swell and some lingering north wrap. Eastern surf will fall off a touch today with the lowering swell but wind wave chop will pick back up at mid week in response to strengthened trades.
Flood Watch until 6 PM HST this evening for Waianae Coast-Oahu North Shore-Olomana-Central Oahu-Waianae Mountains-Lanai Mauka- Kahoolawe-Maui Windward West-Maui Leeward West-Haleakala Summit- Kona-Kohala-Big Island Interior-East Honolulu-Honolulu Metro-Ewa Plain-Koolau Windward-Koolau Leeward-Molokai-Lanai Windward- Lanai Leeward-Lanai South-Maui Central Valley North-Maui Central Valley South-Windward Haleakala-Kipahulu-South Maui/Upcountry- South Haleakala-Big Island South-Big Island Southeast-Big Island East-Big Island North.
Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM HST this evening for Big Island Summits.
