High pressure north of the islands will help maintain moderate to breezy trades through the week. Stable conditions will focus limited showers over windward and mauka areas through at least the middle of the week.
High pressure just north of the Hawaiian Islands will remain the dominant feature, maintaining stable moderate to breezy trades over the next several days. The remainder of the islands will see little rainfall as a brief period of drier conditions can be expected through tonight.
Trades gradually strengthen by the turn of the week as the aforementioned high just to the north of the islands builds and meanders a bit to the southeast. Conditions are expected to remain stable, focusing typical shower activity to windward and mauka areas through the early portion of the next week.
By the end of next week, excess residual moisture associated with Post-Tropical Cyclone Douglas may extend to the island chain by way of breezy trade wind flow. This may bring increased shower activity over initially windward and mauka locations and may spread further into leeward portions of the state toward the end of the forecast period.
Moderate to locally breezy trades will continue through the holiday weekend, with a slight uptick in speed heading into Sunday. Low clouds and showers will move into windward and mountain areas on the trades, with better coverage overnight into the morning hours, bringing MVFR conditions at times. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail.
AIRMET Sierra remains in effect for mountain obscuration across windward sections of the Big Island. Looking upstream on satellite, conditions will likely improve later this afternoon, but may be needed again late tonight into Sunday morning for windward portions of the state.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate low level turbulence over and downwind of terrain of all islands. This AIRMET will likely continue through the weekend.
A high pressure ridge north of the Hawaiian Islands will keep trade winds blowing across the region through the week. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) for the typical windy waters and channels around Maui and the Big Island continues tonight. The SCA area expands to include all coastal marine zones around Maui County, including Kaiwi Channel, along with leeward Oahu as winds increase slightly on Sunday. Minor fluctuations in wind speeds may allow for brief periods of additional zones to fall into and out of the SCA coverage area over the next several days.
A small, long period south swell will fade tonight as an overlapping moderate, long period south-southwest swell fills in, boosting south shore surf heights to near High Surf Advisory levels Sunday and Monday. This swell will remain the primary south swell during the rest of next week as it gradually fades beginning on Tuesday.
Surf along east facing shores will remain rough and choppy through the forecast period as moderate to locally strong trades hold. A slight bump in surf along north facing shores will dwindle tonight into Sunday as a small, west-northwest swell fades. Surf along north facing shores then remains flat to tiny into next week.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Sunday to 6 PM HST Monday for Oahu Leeward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Maui County Windward Waters- Maui County Leeward Waters.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Monday for Maalaea Bay- Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters.
