An upper level trough over the islands will set the stage for an unstable environment today. A low level trough riding into the islands from the north will trigger bands of moderate to heavy showers with possible thunderstorms through the afternoon hours. Cool moderate to breezy northeasterly trade winds will blow across the region with decreasing shower trends as high pressure builds in from tonight into Thursday. Winds begin to weaken and veer from a more southeasterly direction from Friday into the weekend ahead of the next cold front approaching the islands from the west.
Issued at 850 AM HST Mon Feb 23 2026
Breezy trades continue through the period with limited showers focused over windward/mauka portions of Kauai and Oahu until the arrival of a band of trade wind showers arrives late tonight. Moderate to locally heavy showers will progress through Maui County this morning before anchoring along Windward Big Island this afternoon into tonight bringing MVFR to locally IFR conditions along those coastlines.
AIRMET Sierra is in effect for Maui County and Oahu. Sierra will likely be needed for Windward Big Island later today.
Airmet Tango is in effect for mod upper turb FL270/350.
Issued at 348 AM HST Mon Feb 23 2026
A trough over the central coastal waters will slowly push southward today due to the strong high pressure far north of the islands. Currently, gentle westerly winds are south of the trough, while fresh to strong easterly winds prevail north of the trough. Scattered moderate showers and isolated thunderstorms can be expected near and along the trough. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is in effect for waters surrounding Kauai due to fresh to strong trade winds and will be expanded and extended this morning even though the winds should ease slightly tonight and Tuesday, but due to a large north- northeast swell expected to produce seas in excess of the 10 foot SCA threshold over most waters into Tuesday night. Moderate to locally fresh trades are expected on Wednesday, giving way to southeasterly winds Thursday or Friday as a front approaches.
Surf along north facing shores will build through the morning hours due to a north-east (010-030 deg) moderate long period swell that has begun to show forerunners at NDBC buoy 51000 early this morning. As the swell builds early this afternoon, it will produce breaking waves at High Surf Warning levels across most north and east facing shores during the peak tonight and Tuesday. Due to the direction of the large swell, exposed west facing shores of West Maui, western Molokai, and North Kohala on the Big Island will likely experience High Surf Advisory waves. A Coastal Hazard Message has been issued to highlight these conditions. The north- northeast swell will gradually decline Tuesday night through Friday. In addition to this swell, a small pulse of overlapping west- northwest swell is expected to build through the morning and hold through Wednesday.
Due to the direction of the large north-northeast (010-030) swell, some overwash will be possible along low-lying coastal roads and infrastructure in windward areas, and hazardous conditions and heavy surges are expected in north facing harbors, mainly in Hilo and Kahului. A Marine Weather Statement has been issued to highlight this threat.
Very small wintertime surf will continue along south facing shores this week.
High Surf Warning from noon today to 6 PM HST Tuesday for Big Island East-Big Island North-Kauai East-Kauai North-Koolau Windward-Maui Central Valley North-Maui Windward West-Molokai North-Molokai Windward-Niihau-Oahu North Shore-Olomana-Windward Haleakala.
Flood Watch until 6 PM HST this evening for Haleakala Summit- Kahoolawe-Kipahulu-Lanai Leeward-Lanai Mauka-Lanai South-Lanai Windward-Maui Central Valley North-Maui Central Valley South- Maui Leeward West-Maui Windward West-Molokai Leeward South- Molokai North-Molokai Southeast-Molokai West-Molokai Windward- South Haleakala-South Maui/Upcountry-Windward Haleakala.
High Surf Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM HST Tuesday for Kohala-Lanai Windward-Maui Leeward West-Molokai West.
Wind Advisory until noon HST today for Big Island Summits.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Tuesday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Windward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Kauai Channel- Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Maui County Windward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters.
