High pressure to the north will maintain a breezy to locally windy trade wind pattern through the week. Winds will be strongest in higher terrain areas, passes, and areas immediately south through west of the mountains. Showers carried in on the trade wind flow will be focused over windward and mauka areas. An uptick in shower activity is possible this coming weekend as additional moisture is carried in on the trades.
Issued at 334 PM HST Mon Feb 16 2026
No changes to the forecast with the afternoon package. The high pressure north of the islands was analyzed as a 1040 mb high at 8am, in line with the expected GFS and ECMWF weakening trend. A few wind gages, mainly on Maui and the Big Island have been gusting over 40 mph. About half a dozen gages on each of Maui and the Big Island have had sustained winds in excess of 30 mph today.
As anticipated, the high far north of the islands will maintain the tight pressure gradient over the islands, resulting in breezy to locally windy conditions. The GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement with this high continuing to sink southward and weaken overnight, however this is not expected to alter the resultant pressure gradient over the region, thus expecting the winds to hold fairly steady into tomorrow. The Wind Advisory remains in effect for portions of Oahu to the Big Island, with the strongest winds in the typical locations of higher terrain areas, passes, and areas immediately south through west of mountains.
A cold front about 850 miles to the northwest of Kauai will continue to move to the east, and by tomorrow, may help to tighten the pressure gradient over the islands between the high and the front. This could cause an uptick in winds tomorrow and Wednesday, which could result in an expansion and extension of the Wind Advisory. Currently several of the high resolution models, include the FV3 and ARW, are depicting winds stronger than observations, which raises concerns about the peak of the winds that are forecast in those models. However most models are indicating winds around advisory levels through much of the week.
Radar shows isolated showers immediately upstream of the islands, with satellite showing some more showery bands further upstream. The southern end of the first of these bands is over the coastal waters to the east of the Big Island, and is likely to begin moving over the Big Island within the next couple of hours. These bands will be carried in on the trades, and keep passing showers focused over windward and mauka areas. However the stronger trade winds will carry some of these showers to the leeward areas of the smaller islands. Expect similar shower activity to continue through much of the week.
During the second half of the week, the GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement with moisture being drawn northward to the east of the islands. This moisture then is expected to get carried in on the trade winds, which would increase shower activity for the upcoming weekend.
Issued at 334 PM HST Mon Feb 16 2026 Breezy trade winds continue today, primarily bringing showers over windward and mauka areas. Some light showers over Kona slopes of the Big Island were also present today. MVFR conditions will be present within showers, and VFR conditions will prevail elsewhere. Expect similar conditions through tonight and tomorrow.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate low level turbulence over and downwind of terrain for all islands. This AIRMET will likely continue through tomorrow. No other AIRMETS are in effect. AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration may be needed overnight due to upstream showers.
Issued at 334 PM HST Mon Feb 16 2026 A strong high pressure system far north of the Hawaiian Islands will continue to drift farther south through midweek. This closer proximity to the islands will keep strong and gusty trade winds in the regional forecast through at least Wednesday. As a result, the Small Craft Advisory (SCA) for all of the main Hawaiian waters has been extended through Wednesday afternoon and will likely need to be extended further for at least portions of the coastal waters. A slight decrease in trade wind speeds may develop from Thursday into Friday as the high weakens briefly, before another strong high develops far north of the state this weekend.
Surf heights along east facing shorelines will remain solidly within High Surf Advisory (HSA) criteria through Wednesday, driven primarily by a large and persistent fetch of fresh to strong trade winds upstream of the islands. The HSA has been extended through Tuesday night and an extension through Wednesday is looking likely as strong upstream trades are expected to persist.
Surf will remain small along north, west and south facing shores through Saturday, as no significant swell-producing systems are evident in the medium range forecast.
In the extended range forecast, forerunners from the next moderate to large, long period north (010-020 degree) swell appear to arrive by late Sunday night, building swiftly to advisory levels through next week Monday, and then slowly declining into the middle of next week.
High Surf Advisory until 6 AM HST Wednesday for Big Island East- Big Island North-Big Island Southeast-East Honolulu-Kauai East- Kauai South-Kipahulu-Koolau Windward-Maui Windward West-Molokai Southeast-Molokai Windward-Olomana-Windward Haleakala.
Wind Advisory until 6 PM HST Tuesday for Big Island Interior-Big Island North-Big Island South-Big Island Southeast-Kahoolawe- Kohala-Koolau Leeward-Lanai Leeward-Lanai Mauka-Lanai South- Lanai Windward-Maui Central Valley North-Maui Central Valley South-Maui Windward West-Molokai North-Molokai Southeast-Molokai West-Molokai Windward-South Haleakala-Waianae Mountains-Windward Haleakala.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Wednesday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Big Island Windward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Kauai Channel-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters- Maalaea Bay-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maui County Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters-Pailolo Channel.
