A strong high pressure ridge anchored in place north of Hawaii will produce a stable and breezy to windy trade wind weather through Monday. Wind speeds will decrease slightly on Tuesday into moderate to breezy range. Brief passing showers will favor windward and mountain slopes, with late afternoon to evening showers along the Kona slopes of the Big Island, other leeward areas will be mostly dry.
The satellite picture this morning continues to show fairly stable stratocumulus clouds riding into the windward mountain slopes of each island on the easterly trade winds. Upper air balloon soundings over the past 24 hours at Lihue and Hilo are observing temperature inversion heights in the 6,000 to 7,000 foot range. This means that brief passing showers as shown on local doppler radar will continue mainly over windward and mountain areas.
The strong ridge north of the state will build in over the islands today, increasing trade wind speeds into low level Wind Advisory thresholds for windier areas of Maui and Hawaii Counties. A Wind Advisory was issued this morning for 20 to 30 MPH wind speeds with gusts up to 50 MPH at times lasting through Monday afternoon. Fairly dry conditions with lower humidity levels coupled with these stronger winds will produce elevated fire weather conditions over leeward areas during the late morning to afternoon hours. Wind speeds will decrease slightly into the moderate to breezy range from Tuesday onward. Weather conditions into Wednesday continue to show a dry and breezy summer time conditions through much of the week. In the medium to long range weather outlook, operational models and model blends continue to show a slight increase in low level moisture and possibly a modest increase in shower activity from Wednesday night onward.
A strong high pressure ridge north of the Hawaiian Islands will maintain fairly stable conditions and breezy to windy easterly trade winds through Monday. Passing showers will favor windward and mountain areas in the overnight to early morning hours, bringing the potential for brief MVFR conditions. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate low-level turbulence over and downwind of island terrain. This AIRMET will likely persist as strong trade winds remain in the forecast.
High pressure will remain far north of area for the next several days, which will support fresh to strong trade winds across the islands. The Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all Hawaiian coastal waters until 6 PM HST Monday, but this will likely need to be extended for some zones as gusty trades persist into early next week. The aforementioned surface high will move eastward and weaken slightly during the latter half of the week, but winds are likely to remain locally breezy in the typical windier channels and waters throughout much of the next seven days.
Surf along all shores will remain mostly unchanged through the rest of the weekend, though south shore surf is expected to slowly decline as a south swell fades over the next several days. The next small, medium- to long-period south swell is expected to arrive late Tuesday through Wednesday. This swell may boost south- facing shore surf heights to near summertime averages as it peaks on Wednesday. It will then decline through the rest of next week.
Surf along east-facing shores will be rough and choppy in response to the gusty easterly trade winds.
Wind Advisory until 6 PM HST Monday for Lanai Mauka-Kahoolawe- Maui Windward West-Maui Leeward West-Kohala-Molokai-Lanai Windward-Lanai Leeward-Lanai South-Maui Central Valley North- Maui Central Valley South-Windward Haleakala-South Haleakala-Big Island South-Big Island Southeast-Big Island North.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Monday for all Hawaiian waters.
