Light trade winds will continue through Sunday as a weakened surface ridge remains north of the state, allowing localized land and sea breezes to develop. Clouds and showers will favor windward slopes and waters overnight and during the early morning hours, with afternoon showers possible over leeward and interior areas where sea breezes develop. Moderate to breezy trades are expected to return during the first half of the week as the ridge strengthens north of the islands.
Satellite imagery and the latest surface analysis show a shortwave trough approaching from the north, along with a weak surface trough advancing from the southeast. Falling upper heights, a surge of mainly low-level moisture, and a weakened or elevated inversion will support increasing shower coverage Sunday into early next week.
The increase in showers will likely be most pronounced over the eastern end of the state Sunday into Monday, then gradually expand up the island chain by Tuesday. With lighter trades allowing sea breezes to develop Sunday, some afternoon showers are expected over interior and leeward areas.
High-resolution guidance shows the low-level flow backing toward the northeast and increasing to moderate levels by Monday as the pressure gradient tightens. As moisture spreads across the state, windward shower coverage should increase, especially during the overnight and early morning hours from Monday through midweek. Breezy trades and a more typical trade wind pattern are expected to return during the second half of the week as the subtropical ridge restrengthens north of the area.
Gentle to moderate trades expected through tonight becoming lighter on Sunday allowing for sea breezes to set up over the islands. Some low cigs and SHRA possible tonight across windward and mauka areas. MVFR conds possible in SHRA otherwise VFR prevails.
No AIRMETs currently in effect. AIRMET Sierra may be needed for mtn obsc across windward locations overnight.
The trades will ease into the light to moderate range by Sunday as a front weakens the ridge north of the islands. The front will dissipate and the ridge will gradually strengthen north of the state early next week, allowing the trades to gradually strengthen back to moderate and fresh levels. High pressure north of the islands will strengthen further by the middle to latter part of next week, bringing fresh to strong trades back to the waters, with Small Craft Advisories likely being required for the typically windy waters around Maui and the Big Island.
The current long-period south swell will hold at advisory levels through Sunday, then gradually ease Sunday night and Monday as forerunners from a new long-period south swell begin to arrive. Surf may briefly dip below advisory levels Sunday night and Monday, but will likely return to advisory levels Tuesday through Thursday, potentially peaking close to warning levels on Wednesday.
A combination of advisory-level surf and water levels hovering slightly above predicted levels could lead to some wave runup issues during the afternoon high tide cycle Sunday, with water sweeping across areas of beaches that typically remain dry. Water levels will gradually lower next week.
Surf along north-facing shores will remain small through Monday, then trend slightly higher Tuesday through Friday as a pair of overlapping small north-northwest swells move through. North shore surf will drop back to nearly flat levels next weekend.
East shore surf will remain well below normal through Tuesday due to lack of trade winds over and upstream of the state. Surf will trend upward Wednesday and Thursday and hold close to seasonal levels Friday through next weekend.
High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST Sunday for Niihau-Kauai Leeward-Waianae Coast-Kahoolawe-Maui Leeward West-Kona-Kauai South-East Honolulu-Honolulu Metro-Ewa Plain-Molokai Leeward South-Lanai Leeward-Lanai South-Maui Central Valley South-South Maui/Upcountry-South Haleakala-Big Island South-Big Island Southeast.
