A weather pattern featuring light winds, mostly cloudy skies, and scattered to numerous showers will continue through tonight. The weather will once again become more active beginning as early as Thursday as a new low develops, bringing renewed chances for heavy rain and moderate Kona winds, especially for Friday into the weekend. Given the high soil saturation from the recent Kona storm, even moderate rainfall rates could pose a risk for rapid runoff and flooding, especially during the latter portion of the week. The extended range forecast shows cool northeasterly trade winds returning from Monday into Tuesday, wet trade winds are expected to last through much of next week.
Vfr conditions will prevail at most locations into Thursday morning, with overnight land breezes expected at most sites. Conditions are expected to deteriorate again late Thursday into Friday as upper-level disturbance and surface low approach from the west, bringing increasing chances for widespread rainfall across portions of the state. The low-level flow will gradually veer from southeast on Thursday to south-southwest by Friday, with speeds increasing into the moderate range at exposed terminals. Expect periods of MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS in showers.
AIRMET Tango is in effect for moderate turbulence for FL 200-350, due to the oncoming trough. These conditions are expected to persist through tomorrow. Will also likely include mention of light icing in layer 150-FL250 in the evening update.
Issued at 316 PM HST Wed Mar 18 2026
Light to locally moderate east to southeast winds will slowly strengthen to moderate speeds and veer south by Thursday as a ridge strengthens northeast of the state and a broad area of low pressure develops west of the state. By Friday, the low will strengthen over or near the far northwest offshore waters before lifting northeast on Saturday. Winds will shift out of the south southwest during this time at moderate speeds. Winds will become light and variable as the low shifts northeast of state with a trailing trough draped over the state. A strong high will build north of the state Sunday allowing moderate to locally strong northeast winds to return during the first half of next week.
Near shore buoys show the current moderate, medium period north swell has peaked and is trending down. Thus the High Surf Advisory has been cancelled for north facing shores of Niihau, Kauai, Oahu, Molokai and Maui. Surf along north facing shores will continue to gradually decline through Friday as the swell shifts out of the north and north- northeast. A small reinforcing pulse out of the north is expect Saturday. A new small to moderate long period west- northwest swell is expected to arrive late Saturday and hold through early next week.
Surf along south shores will see moderate surf just below High Surf Advisory (HSA) criteria as a long period south swell peaks tonight and holds through Thursday. The next small, long period south swell will fill in Saturday and peak Sunday, providing a small boost in surf along south facing shores before fading into early next week. Surf along east facing shores will remain well below average due to the lack of trades locally and upstream through the weekend. The exception will be for east facing shores
Flood Watch from Thursday evening through Sunday afternoon for most Hawaiian Islands.
Wind Advisory until 6 AM HST Thursday for Big Island Summits.
