Breezy trades will continue for one more day, but will gradually ease by this evening. As a disturbance moves overhead today, expect increasing chances for heavy rain and isolated thunderstorms over the western end of the state, and the wet weather will continue into the weekend. Strengthening trades early next week will return a more typical windward and mauka focused shower pattern, followed by more stable conditions by mid to late week.
Issued at 404 PM HST Fri Feb 20 2026
Trade winds will weaken this evening and Saturday as the pressure gradient weakens and an upper level trough moves over the islands from the west. Showers are expected to increase in coverage from west to east tonight through Saturday. We expect localized MVFR and isolated IFR in the strongest showers.
AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mountain obscuration above 2 kft for north through southeast Oahu, east Maui, and north and east Big Island due to showers.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for tempo moderate turbulence below 8000 feet over leeward sides of the islands as a result of continued breezy low level winds. Conditions are expected to improve as winds weaken tonight.
Fresh to locally strong trades will begin to ease over the weekend as a gale to the northwest lifts northward and away from the region. Winds will become light enough for a localized land and sea breeze regime to become established over the weekend. Seas will respond by gradually lowering, likely falling below the 10 ft Small Craft Advisory level by Saturday. In addition to the winds and seas, expect a wet pattern with isolated thunderstorms as an upper disturbance lingers in the area.
Surf along exposed east-facing shores will remain rough, with heights hovering around advisory levels today. A downward trend will follow over the weekend as winds diminish locally and upstream of the state.
Surf along exposed north- and east-facing shores will quickly build through the day Monday as a long-period north-northeast swell from a broad storm-force low evolves off the northwest Pacific coast this weekend. A large area of northerly gales between this system and a 1048 mb blocking high centered over the Aleutians will continue to expand southward through the weekend, with the head of the fetch reaching less than 1,000 nautical miles from the state. Heights will reach warning levels for exposed north- and east-facing shores by late Monday through Tuesday. Although a gradual downward trend is anticipated by midweek, additional pulses from this same system will keep surf above advisory levels for east-facing shores through much of the week. This swell direction will bring surf into some typically protected areas such as Kua Bay, West Maui, and exposed shores of Lanai.
Other impacts from this north-northeast swell direction could include significant erosion along some coasts and accretion at other locations as sand shifts opposite the typical swell direction, particularly along north-facing shores. Additionally, overwash along vulnerable sections of coastline and roadways will be possible beginning Monday night during high tide cycles. Mariners can also anticipate harbor surges at Kahului and Hilo.
Surf along exposed west-facing shores will rise early next week as a long-period northwest swell arrives from a recent broad storm- force low over the far northwest Pacific.
Flood Watch until 6 AM HST Saturday for Niihau, Kauai and Oahu.
High Surf Advisory until 6 AM HST Saturday for east facing shores of Kauai, Oahu, Molokai, Maui and the Big Island.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Saturday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Windward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Kauai Channel- Kauai Windward Waters-Maui County Windward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters-Pailolo Channel.
