After a prolonged stretch of impactful Kona weather and heavy rainfall across the state, a gradual return to a more typical northeast trade wind pattern is expected by midweek. A lingering moisture axis over the eastern end of the state, combined with an upper trough, will support periods of locally heavy showers and storms today, mainly over Maui and the Big Island. Thereafter, a drier and more stable trade wind pattern is expected from late week through the weekend and into early next week.
Issued at 927 AM HST Tue Mar 24 2026
High pressure building into the Hawaii region from the northwest will keep moderate to locally breezy trade winds in the forecast for the next few days. An upper level trough will keep periods of passing showers over the windward mountains of all islands with MVFR conditions possible in showers.
AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration remains in effect for north and east sections of Kauai, Oahu, Molokai, Lanai, and Maui, although this may be scaled back as drier air moves across the state as we transition back into trades.
Issued at 343 AM HST Tue Mar 24 2026
Upper level energy diving down into a trough lingering near Big Island will keep the chance of eastern water showers and isolated storms alive through the day. High pressure building far north of the area will result in strengthened northeasterly winds across the local nearshore waters. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all coastal waters due to these increasing northeasterlies and elevated seas. Winds will be strongest through Wednesday but should ease Thursday. Moderate trades will close out the week.
A fading north northwest swell will be overlapped by a reinforcing pulse of medium period north northeast swell. This swell will peak this afternoon and evening and then decline Wednesday. Another small, medium period west northwest swell will arrive Thursday, peak Friday, then decline during the weekend. Aside from areas along east shores exposed to the northerly swell, short period energy from rebuilding trades will increase to near seasonal averages tonight and Wednesday and then hold into the weekend. A small south southwest swell will decline today and then fade Wednesday. A short-lived pulse of small south southeast swell will be possible Wednesday through Friday, and a small south southwest swell could arrive Friday into the weekend.
Flood Watch until 6 PM HST this evening for Haleakala Summit- Kipahulu-Maui Central Valley North-Maui Central Valley South- Maui Leeward West-Maui Windward West-South Haleakala-South Maui/Upcountry-Windward Haleakala.
Flood Watch through late tonight for Big Island East-Big Island Interior-Big Island North-Big Island South-Big Island Southeast- Kohala-Kona.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Wednesday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Big Island Windward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Kauai Channel-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters- Maalaea Bay-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maui County Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters-Pailolo Channel.
