A powerful Kona storm will impact the state through the weekend, bringing multiple hazards to the islands including significant flash flooding, damaging winds, and strong to severe thunderstorms. Flooding concerns will continue over Kauai this evening and spread to Oahu late tonight, then gradually expand eastward across the island chain through the week. The potential for strong to severe thunderstorms and more widespread flash flooding will increase late in the week and into the weekend.
Shower activity will generally be on the decrease this evening with VFR conditions expected at many areas. Some areas could see low clouds continue to persist through the night due to the recent moisture. The next wave of showers and thunderstorms are expected to arrive Thursday morning and will bring another round of MVFR conditions with brief periods of IFR/LIFR conditions.
AIRMET SIERRA remains in effect for mountain obscuration for all of Kauai, Oahu and Maui Counties, as well as the south and southeast portions of the Big Island. The AIRMET may be briefly cancelled, but will likely be need to be reissued by Thursday morning as the next wave of moisture arrives.
Issued at 348 PM HST Wed Mar 11 2026
A powerful Kona storm will result in heavy rain, thunderstorms, and rough seas for the islands and adjacent coastal waters through the rest of this week. Today's scatterometer passes showed winds have significantly diminished around the Big Island, though they remain fresh near Kauai. As a result, the Small Craft Advisory (SCA) has been cancelled. A relative lull in winds is forecast tonight before strong southerly winds redevelop Thursday afternoon. Winds are likely to approach, or possibly reach, gale- force for portions of the area as early as Thursday night or Friday and last into the weekend in association with a band of heavy rainfall and thunderstorms pushing eastward across the forecast area.
A series of small, medium- to long-period west-northwest swells will bring small surf to north and west facing shores through the rest of the week. Kauai will block some of this swell energy from reaching Oahu and Maui, but it will make it into the west facing shores of the Big Island. The current swell will begin to diminish late Thursday before the next west-northwest swell builds Friday into the weekend. Additionally, a small, medium-period north swell originating from Alaska Peninsula gap winds is expected to arrive Thursday night and continue into the weekend.
Choppy surf along east-facing shores will continue to trend downward and remain below seasonal levels as south to southeast winds prevail. The southerly wind direction will contribute to rough and choppy surf along south-facing shores, but a bit of a lull can be expected on Thursday with a brief break in southerly winds before they Thursday night. South shore surf will build further Friday into the weekend, likely reaching advisory levels. Once southerly winds diminish early next week, a small to moderate, long-period south swell generated by a gale force low southeast of New Zealand will arrive along south-facing shores.
Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for all islands.
High Wind Watch from Thursday evening through late Saturday night for Niihau, Oahu, Molokai, Lanai, Kahoolawe, and Maui.
High Wind Watch from Thursday evening through Sunday afternoon for Big Island Summits and Haleakala Summit.
High Wind Watch from Friday morning through late Saturday night for Big Island.
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM HST Thursday for Big Island Summits above 12000 feet elevation.
Winter Storm Watch from Thursday evening through Saturday afternoon for Big Island Summits above 12000 feet elevation.
