Moderate to locally breezy north-northeast to northeast trade winds will focus clouds and showers over windward and mauka areas with brief downpours possible over parts of Maui County tonight. A drier airmass will filter over the western half of the state by Saturday afternoon, while showery conditions could persist over the windward areas of the eastern half of the state. Drier, cooler air will fill in state wide by Sunday. Trade winds will strengthen over the next 24 hours, becoming locally strong by Saturday evening. Mostly dry with strong gusty winds are expected over leeward areas this weekend.
Issued at 351 PM HST Fri Mar 27 2026
Satellite imagery this afternoon shows a lingering band of moisture in the form of a cluster of clouds with embedded showers just upstream of Maui County. Scattered clouds with light to a few brief moderate showers can been seen on radar focusing mainly along the windward and mauka areas as well as the Kona coast of the Big Island where a seabreeze has developed. The next band of showers associated with a remnant frontal boundary is just 150 sm north of Kauai County. Forecast remains on track with chances of showers increasing tonight mainly along windward and mauka areas as the band of showers moves south over Kauai tonight and converges with the lingering band of moisture over Maui County before pushing over the Big Island through the day Saturday. Upper level troughing over the central islands will help enhance showers under the trade wind inversion. Heavier showers are likely along windward and mauka areas of Maui County and the Big Island given the location of greatest upper level support and moisture availability. Kauai and Oahu will see moderate showers with the passage of the front however brief heavy showers cannot be entirely ruled out either. Not anticipating any significant flooding threats.
A strong pressure gradient will build north of state as a surface high develops to the northwest and a surface low strengthens to the northeast. This gradient will send very breezy northeasterly winds following behind the remnant frontal boundary and will help keep persistent clouds and showers along windward areas. Inversion heights may drop to around 5,000 ft Saturday around Kauai and Oahu as upper level ridging generates more subsidence that could lead to enhance downsloping winds on leeward sides of north facing ridges. Wind gusts of 40 mph will be possible with gusts up to 50 mph not out of the question. Depending on how strong the wind gusts become during the day Saturday, a Wind Advisory may be needed over select leeward areas for Saturday evening into Sunday. Thus will continue to monitor latest observations and guidance.
Temperatures will drop a couple of degrees by Saturday morning and dewpoints will drop in the 50's west of the the Big Island. This cooler and drier airmass will spread state wide Sunday limiting tradewind showers.
Gusty northeasterly winds will gradually ease Monday before shifting more easterly as a surface high tracks north of the state and the low pressure system moves far northeast of the state. A more typical easterly trade wind pattern of scattered showers across the windward and mauka slopes is expected through much of next week.
Issued at 845 PM HST Fri Mar 27 2026
A band of showers and attendant MVFR conditions are expected to reach Windward Maui overnight tonight before spreading to the Big Island during the day Saturday. Moderate NNE trades hold through much of the night and then strengthen early tomorrow in response to deepening low pressure northeast of the state.
AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration is in effect for windward Molokai and Maui. This is expected to continue until at least early morning Saturday, with conditions potentially spreading to the Big Island by the afternoon.
Issued at 351 PM HST Fri Mar 27 2026
A low pressure system northeast of the islands will interact with high pressure building in from the northwest to strengthen the northeasterly trade winds to fresh to strong speeds through early next week. The current Small Craft Advisory covering the leeward waters and channels around the smaller islands will expand to encompass the waters around the Big Island on Saturday as the stronger winds progress down the island chain.
Another small medium-period northwest swell began filling in earlier today, and combined with the fading small short-period northeast wind swell, will help to maintain small surf across north-facing shores into Saturday. The aforementioned small northeast short-period swell will also bring slightly below average surf to east-facing shores into Saturday. As the trades strengthen on Saturday surf heights will build slightly along east-facing shores.
A deepening low to the northeast will send a large medium-period swell (360 degrees veering to 040 degrees) to north- and east- facing shores Sunday through early next week, with High Surf Advisory conditions looking likely.
Along south-facing shores, small background pulses will keep surf heights above flat conditions through early next week, with a slight bump possible on Saturday.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Sunday for Alenuihaha Channel-Kaiwi Channel-Kauai Channel-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Northwest Waters-Maalaea Bay-Maui County Leeward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Pailolo Channel.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Saturday to 6 AM HST Sunday for Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters-Big Island Windward Waters.
