Trade winds will continue through much of the week with high pressure system far to the northeast. A potential area for tropical development remains about 1100 miles east-southeast of the islands. Conditions remain favorable for tropical development and we will continue to closely monitor how this could impact the islands.
Satellite and radar imagery this morning shows some scattered windward and mauka showers moving in on the trades. Winds are expected to remain moderate to breezy for next few days.
High pressure far to the northeast of the state will continue to bring trades to the region this week. Expect clouds and showers to be focused over the typical windward and mauka slopes in the trade wind flow. Additional clouds and showers are also expected over the Kona slopes of the Big Island during the afternoon and evening hours.
The main concern is related to the area of potential tropical development about 1100 miles east-southeast of the islands. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) continues to report that the area is conducive for additional tropical development over the next several days. As no system has yet developed, a lot of questions remain as to where any such system will form and move. As such, the forecast for Hawaii could change significantly once any such system develops. Stay tuned for the latest updates on this developing tropical cyclone from the NHC online at www.hurricanes.gov. When and should a system form, the forecast will be updated to reflect the impacts on Hawaii.
Moderate to breezy trade winds are expected over the next several days. Showers will focus mostly over windward and mountain areas, with some lower ceilings this morning. Conditions should improve during the day as slightly drier air moves in.
No AIRMETs are in effect this morning, but brief mountain obscurations may occur along windward areas.
High pressure to the far northeast will slowly drift into position north of the Hawaiian Islands into the weekend, producing moderate to locally strong trade winds across the region. The Small Craft Advisory (SCA) has been extended through Wednesday afternoon for the windier waters and channels around Maui and the Big Island. The weather pattern may change significantly this weekend as we continue to watch for a developing tropical cyclone currently in an area roughly 1,000 NM east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. Potential impacts are uncertain at this time, as the tropical cyclone has not yet formed and track guidance remains highly uncertain at this time. Marine interests should be prepared in case this system potentially turns towards the Hawaiian Islands after formation potentially as early as this weekend.
Surf along south and west facing shores will continue to remain elevated as overlapping south swells continue to impact the islands with some smaller wrap around energy along increasing surf heights along exposed west facing shores. A slightly bigger south swell will build in later today as another moderate, long period south swell arrives, peaking just below advisory thresholds by Wednesday, and then remaining elevated through Friday.
Surf along east facing shores will continue to remain moderate and rough due to continued trade winds. Later in the week, the track of a developing tropical cyclone will dictate the potential for a large swell exceeding advisory levels from the east to southeast direction.
Surf along north facing shores will remain flat to tiny through the week.
Due to a combination of peak monthly high tides and water levels running higher than predicted in a few locations, a Coastal Flood Statement is in effect for minor coastal flooding around the afternoon high tide through Wednesday. Tides will be decreasing by the end of this week, but coastal flooding may continue to be possible around high tide for locations where water levels are running highest.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Wednesday for Maalaea Bay- Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters.
