A ridge to the north, a front to the northeast, a trough to the southwest, and Tropical Storm Pena well south of the state, are all contributing to a breezy trade wind pattern over the islands. Expect breezy trade winds to continue over the next several days. Moisture riding in on the trades will focus showers over the windward and mauka areas. An uptick in shower activity is possible during the latter part of the week.
Moderate to locally breezy trade winds. Drier air moving in from the east will limit areal shower coverage. Better organized rain clusters passing across windward terminals may produce occasional MVFR ceilings and visibilities.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate turbulence within the lee of higher terrain.
Issued at 345 PM HST Sat Nov 7 2026 Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail through the remainder of this weekend as high pressure dominates north of the state and Tropical Storm Pena moves westward, several hundred miles south of the Big Island. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is in effect through Sunday night for most Hawaiian Waters due to a combination of winds and elevated seas. Winds are expected to ease slightly late Monday and Tuesday as the ridge to our north erodes and Pena moves away to the southwest. The SCA will likely be trimmed back to the typical windy waters around Big Island and Maui at that time. Trade winds are then expected to strengthen again on Wednesday as a new high builds to the north. Wednesday could also see the remnants of a cold front approach from the north and a large northwest swell bringing seas above 10 feet to the exposed coastal waters.
A medium- period swell out of the north- northwest (325 to 340 degree) has been filling on on the outer buoys today, with heights around 5-6 feet at 12-13 seconds. This swell will fill in this evening and peak late tonight into tomorrow morning, briefly reaching advisory levels during its peak. The swell will gradually decrease tomorrow into Monday before another small to moderate swell fills in Monday night, keeping small to moderate surf in place through Tuesday. A large northwest to north- northwest swell is then forecast to arrive late Wednesday into Thursday and could bring surf near or right at warning levels (25 feet).
A small south-southwest swell will keep surf slightly above seasonal average today, then around the average on Sunday before declining Monday through the remainder of the week.
Rough surf along east-facing shores will hold at or above seasonal average through this weekend. Surf will decrease slightly by early next week as trades begin to ease before increasing again by mid week.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Monday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Kaiwi Channel-Kauai Channel-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Maalaea Bay-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maui County Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters-Pailolo Channel.
