Gentle to moderate trade winds are expected through the weekend. Brief passing showers will drift into the islands on the northeasterly trade winds, favoring windward and mountain areas during the overnight to early morning hours. A more significant change to our weather pattern continues to evolve for next week. Deep tropical moisture moving across the state will bring the potential for heavy rain and thunderstorms to most islands starting around Tuesday and persisting through at least Thursday.
A screaming 200mb jet remains just north of the island chain and has been producing a handful of moderate turb reports this evening (see SIGMET Romeo). The core of the jet is forecast to stay to the north, but some light to moderate turbulence is possible, particularly near Kauai and Oahu. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through the period (with the exception of PHTO) with isolated windward showers.
AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mountain obscuration for windward sections of the Big Island.
Issued at 351 PM HST Fri Oct 23 2026 A surface low centered about 1000 nm north of islands will move to the southeast through Saturday and will stall roughly 800 to 900 nm northeast of Oahu late Saturday through Monday, keeping the subtropical ridge just north of the area rather weak. Trade winds will be at gentle to moderate strength during much of this time, though a brief period of fresh northeast winds may accompany a shallow band of showers moving over Kauai and Oahu late Saturday. An area of low pressure is expected to move over the islands from the southwest Tuesday and Wednesday, bringing variable winds and the potential for heavy showers and thunderstorms.
Small surf will persist along north shores through early Saturday. A moderate, medium-period north-northwest swell will build late Saturday and produce surf around seasonal average during its peak on Sunday. As this swell declines on Monday, a long-period northwest swell will arrive. This swell will generate moderate surf along north- and west-facing shores through Wednesday. A small north- northeast swell will be possible during the second half of next week.
Small background level surf will prevail along south-facing shores into early Saturday. A series of small overlapping south- southwest swells will push surf back to around seasonal average late Saturday into early next week. A larger south-southwest swell is possible Thursday and next Friday.
Along east-facing shores, wind swell energy will be low through much of the week, but a small medium-period northeast swell will maintain small surf through tonight. Surf along most east facing shores will be small through early next week, but areas exposed to wrapping northerly swells will experience periods of moderate surf late Saturday through Monday and again during the second half of next week.
None.
