The flooding threat will remain through the day primarily across the windward areas of the eastern half of the state. Conditions will generally be improving from this evening through Friday, but some localized downpours will continue for windward areas through Friday. For Oahu and Kauai, weather conditions will continue to improve this afternoon with fair trade wind weather expected over the next few days. A weak front will push through on Sunday with strong northerly trades following behind Sunday into Monday.
Generally disorganized -SHRA/SHRA for much of the island chain with lesser coverage for Kauai. More organized SHRA/+SHRA for Maui with lowering VIS/CIGS for PHOG and to a lesser extent PHJH. Additional areas of showers elsewhere from Oahu to the Big Island generally focusing on windward TAF locales. VFR/MVFR is fairly common with periods of IFR under heavier and more persistent SHRA/+SHRA. This should continue through the day and at least into the early portion of the evening. Coverage of SHRA wanes a little overnight with increasing trade winds for tomorrow.
AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration remains in effect abv 020 for Oahu through the Big Island. Conditions look to remain fairly consistent through much of the day.
AIRMET Tango for Turbulence remains in effect from Molokai to the Big Island. Moderate turbulence between 100-FL200. Oahu AIRMET has been cancelled for improving conditions. AIRMET Zulu is in effect for light ice from Molokai to the Big Island in layer 140-FL200. Oahu has been removed from the AIRMET for improving conditions.
This morning, a diffuse trough over the islands continues to support showers and isolated thunderstorm chances, particularly across the central and eastern waters. This trough will weaken near the Big Island today, allowing ridging to the north to drive moderate to fresh easterly winds over most waters, but southerly lighter winds will remain near the Big Island. The trough will move south of Big Island Friday, and moderate to locally fresh trades will prevail Friday night into the weekend. A Small Craft Advisory for the windier waters and channels around Maui County and the Big Island is likely late this weekend into early next week. The current northwest swell will gradually decline as a small short period north-northeast swell will fill in Friday and maintain small surf. A larger, long-period northwest swell will arrive late Saturday and may push surf above the High Surf Advisory threshold Sunday. The swell will shift more northerly and may briefly build further on Monday before dropping Tuesday.
Surf along south facing shores will slowly rise through this evening, peak Friday just below High Surf Advisory levels, and gradually decline through the weekend. By early next week, surf looks to remain tiny to small through the forecast period.
Surf along most east-facing shores will remain small and choppy through today but will rise Friday with the wrapping north to north- northeast swell energy, producing periods of moderate surf. Strong northeast winds and a large, rough north- northeast swell are possible Sunday night and Monday.
Flood Watch until 6 PM HST this evening for Big Island East-Big Island Interior-Big Island North-Big Island South-Big Island Southeast-Big Island Summits-Haleakala Summit-Kahoolawe-Kipahulu- Kohala-Kona-Lanai Leeward-Lanai Mauka-Lanai South-Lanai Windward- Maui Central Valley North-Maui Central Valley South-Maui Leeward West-Maui Windward West-Molokai Leeward South-Molokai North- Molokai Southeast-Molokai West-Molokai Windward-South Haleakala- South Maui/Upcountry-Windward Haleakala.
