The cold front is now about to move into the Big Island, where it will stall out and diminish later this afternoon. Cool and mostly dry conditions are expected over the next few days. A complex weather system could bring significant weather impacts across the state this weekend into early next week with periods of heavy rain, strong winds and thunderstorms.
Issued at 347 AM HST Tue Feb 3 2026
Satellite and radar imagery early this morning is showing the front moving into the Big Island this morning. Winds have decreased behind the front, thus the Wind Advisory has been cancelled. While parts of the Big Island will continue to see breezy conditions through this morning, winds have decreased below advisory thresholds. For the summits of the Big Island, a High Wind Warning remains in place, but winds are expected to gradually decrease this afternoon into tonight and we could see the High Wind Warning downgraded to an advisory sometime during the next 24 hours.
A cool and drier air mass will continue to spread across the state today. Dewpoints over Kauai has already decreased into the 50s and we should see the drier air spread towards the rest of the state. Mostly fair weather is expected over the next few days with winds shifting back towards the southwest on Thursday ahead of the next cold front approaching from the northwest. As the winds switch towards the southerly direction, we could see some passing showers moving in from the south on Thursday.
The next cold front will approach the state on Friday and stall over the state over the weekend. Meanwhile, in the upper levels of the atmosphere, we have a sharp trough developing into a cutoff low southwest of the state Sunday into early next week. While there are many different type of weather scenarios possible due to the forecast depending on the strength and position of the cutoff low, most of these scenarios lead to some type of high impact weather event over the state.
Based on the latest forecast models and ensemble members, for Saturday we are looking at the front stalling somewhere across the state with breezy to strong northeast trades filling in behind the front. An upper level trough deepening over the state will provide instability and will likely allow for heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms focused over windward and mountain areas with leeward areas also seeing showery conditions.
As the trough deepens further Saturday evening into Sunday, a cutoff low develops west to southwest of the state. This will allow for deeper moisture to move in from the south and will likely lead to heavier showers and more widespread rain coverage. At the same time a very strong high (1038 mb to 1040 mb) will also develop north of the state Sunday into early next week. This will cause the trade winds to ramp up on Sunday with blustery conditions possible. As for precipitation, although the ensemble mean generally favored more rainfall over the western half of the state, many individual members show widespread heavy rain across the state, which means it's still too early to tell where the heaviest rainfall will be. As you can see, the weather forecast for this weekend is very complex, we could see a mix of flash flooding, damaging winds, high surf, and even thunder trades. Stay tuned for more updates as we get a better handle on the development of the upper level low in the coming days.
Issued at 347 AM HST Tue Feb 3 2026
A cold front is moving through the state this morning, and was about to move into the Big Island as of 3:45 AM HST. Ahead of the front winds are out of the southwest, while behind it winds are generally west to northwest at 5 to 15 mph with higher gusts. A band of showers marks the frontal position, and visibilities have been below 2 miles at times in brief heavy rain. We expect VFR conditions this morning behind the front, and mostly VFR with isolated MVFR ahead. The front is forecast to pass slowly over the Big Island today before stalling just to the southeast.
AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mountain obscuration across most of the state this morning. Mountain obscurations should be on the decrease throughout the morning as drier air continues to move in.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate low level turbulence below 7000 feet over and downwind (north and east) of mountain terrain across Maui and the Big Island. The strongest turbulence will be felt surface to 2000 feet in these areas. Conditions are expected to improve as winds weaken behind the front.
Issued at 347 AM HST Tue Feb 3 2026
Rough marine conditions will persist this morning due to a combination of moderate to fresh northwest winds behind a cold front approaching the Big Island and a significant northwest swell. Local winds will briefly ease to light to moderate levels and shift out of the east by Wednesday as high pressure builds in behind the departing front. Moderate to locally fresh southwest winds may return during the second half of the week as the next system draws closer. Guidance shows strong to gale force northeast winds trailing this next front filling in over most Hawaiian waters.
Surf along exposed north- and west-facing shores will rapidly rise today as a significant northwest swell generated by a broad, storm-force Aleutian low builds down the island chain. Offshore buoys peaked above 20 ft overnight, aligning well with forecast guidance. The relatively short travel distance from the fetch region, combined with locally strong northwest winds veering more northerly today, will produce very rough surf with a mix of short- to medium-period energy. Surf will reach the extra-large to giant range later today during the peak for exposed coasts of the smaller islands, with heights well above warning levels lingering into Wednesday before gradually lowering to advisory levels by Thursday. Provided the more west to northwest angle (300-320 degrees), much of this energy will remain blocked for most north facing shores of the Big Island. Heights will potentially return to warning levels for exposed coasts Friday night into Saturday due to a fresh northwest swell arriving from a developing storm- force low over the far northwest Pacific today.
Water levels running higher than predicted combined with onshore winds and warning-level surf will increase the threat of coastal flooding impacts along exposed coasts. Overwash onto vulnerable low-lying roadways and properties is likely, especially during the early morning peak tide cycle or by daybreak. Additionally, minor coastal flooding will remain likely early this morning due to elevated water levels, even in sheltered coastal areas away from direct surf exposure. The potential for impacts will ease beginning Wednesday as tides gradually lower.
Surf along east facing shores could quickly rise and become rough this weekend as strong northeast winds fill in behind a cold front expected.
High Surf Warning until 6 PM HST Wednesday for Kauai North-Kauai Southwest-Kohala-Kona-Maui Central Valley North-Maui Windward West-Molokai North-Molokai West-Molokai Windward-Niihau-Oahu North Shore-Waianae Coast-Windward Haleakala.
High Wind Warning until 6 AM HST Wednesday for Big Island Summits.
High Surf Advisory from noon today to 6 PM HST Wednesday for Big Island East-Big Island North.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Wednesday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Windward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Kauai Channel- Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Maui County Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters.
