Surface high pressure centered northeast of the state will continue to drive moderate trades across the islands today. There will be a decrease in cloud and shower coverage as the day progresses as a drier and more stable airmass moves in. Expect little change in the weather pattern on Tuesday, though trades will be slightly weaker. Wednesday into Thursday, light easterly flow will lead to a sea breeze and land breeze regimen. Thus, most cloud cover and shower activity will be limited to interior and mountainous terrain during the afternoons. In addition, deeper moisture moving in from the southeast Wednesday through Friday should bring increased precipitation chances to the Big Island, and perhaps Maui.
Issued at 346 AM HST Mon Jun 15 2026
Light to moderate trades persist through the morning hours, occasionally light enough for sea breezes to develop. Trades increase slightly throughout the morning, with periods of gusty winds at times. Low-level moisture embedded within these trades may lead to light shower activity resulting in periodic MVFR conditions, namely across windward and mauka areas. Otherwise, VFR conditions prevail.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate turbulence over the Big Island between FL300 to FL400.
Issued at 346 AM HST Mon Jun 15 2026 Moderate trade winds today will become light to moderate with local land and sea breezes through the week as high pressure weakens.
The large long period south southwest swell will hold around warning levels today and a High Surf Warning is in place through tonight. Buoy 51002 readings this morning are hovering around 4 to 6 feet at 17 to 19 seconds. As the period has dropped slightly from yesterday, the consistency of the sets could increase, which could lead to more water accumulating near the shorelines. The surf will then gradually lower Tuesday and Wednesday, then another pulse arrives Wednesday night into Thursday which could push surf back up to advisory levels. The large south- southwest swell combined with King Tides will continue to create the potential for significant wave run up along south and west facing shores through the afternoon.
Very little swell energy is arriving along north facing shores, keeping surf tiny to flat. A small bump in surf is possible for north- facing shores by late Tuesday into Wednesday with the arrival of a small northwest swell and a smaller north swell. Gentle to moderate east-northeasterly winds expected through next week will keep surf along east facing shores below seasonal average.
A Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect for minor coastal flooding of vulnerable low-lying coastal roadways, docks, boat ramps and other coastal infrastructure. King Tides combined with water levels that are running higher than predicted will lead to minor flooding potential around the daily peak tide, which will be during the late afternoon and early evening hours, through at least Tuesday. While minor coastal flooding is expected along all shorelines, the combination of the south-southwest swell, King Tides and the daily high tide will make low-lying coastal areas along south and west shores susceptible to more widespread coastal flooding through the first half of next week.
A Marine Weather Statement also remains in effect due to the large long-period south-southwest swell producing harbor surges and breaking waves near harbor entrances along south and west facing harbors.
High Surf Warning until 6 AM HST Tuesday for Big Island South- Big Island Southeast-East Honolulu-Ewa Plain-Honolulu Metro- Kahoolawe-Kauai South-Kauai Southwest-Kipahulu-Kohala-Kona-Lanai Leeward-Lanai South-Maui Central Valley South-Maui Leeward West- Molokai Leeward South-Molokai Southeast-Niihau-South Haleakala- South Maui/Upcountry-Waianae Coast.
