Relatively weak trades will continue through Friday, with increasing wind speeds this weekend. An upper low and midlevel trough will bring an increased chance of showers to the western end of the state over the next few days. Showers will shift to the eastern end of the state this weekend as an area of tropical moisture passes by.
An upper low to the west and associated midlevel trough will linger over the next couple of days and enhance incoming trade wind showers, particularly across the western half of the state. The upper low is forecast to lift away to the north on Friday returning more stable conditions to the area.
Trades will be weaker than average through Thursday as the remnant of former tropical cyclone Genevieve lingers between the subtropical high and Hawaii. As a result, trades will be weak and localized sea breezes will bring interior and leeward cloud build ups each afternoon. Across Kauai and Oahu, scattered showers may develop during the afternoons due to the instability and low level moisture from the upper low/trough described earlier. Trades will increase this weekend, doing away with most of the sea breeze effects.
This weekend guidance suggests a plume of moisture coming either over or very close to Maui and Big Island.
A weak high pressure ridge far north of the state will keep gentle trade winds in the forecast. An upper level low and assoicated low level inverted trough will remain over the western end of the state, enhancing trade wind showers.
AIRMET Sierra in effect for mountain obscuration above 020 for north through southeast mountains of Kauai, Oahu, Molokai, Maui and the Big Island. These conditions are expected to improve during the afternoon hours but may linger for Kauai and Oahu.
Will continue to monitor all observations for possible AIRMET Tango due to upper level turbulence as the upper level low and associated jet approaches Kauai from the northwest. In addition will also keep monitoring for possible AIRMET Zulu due to light icing above the freezing level within the upper level cloud band.
Issued at 326 AM HST Tue Aug 4 2026 Moderate trade winds will prevail over the coastal waters for the next few days as the remnants of former Tropical Cyclone Genevieve continue lifting northward, well east of the area, and a front passes from west to east across the North Pacific. Winds are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory levels through much of the week. Trades are forecast to restrengthen to locally breezy levels by the end of the week as what is left of Genevieve's remnants dissipate and high pressure expands north of the state.
Surf along south-facing shores will remain below seasonal averages through much of this week, though occasional small fluctuations can be expected as small background swells move through. By this Saturday, a small, long period south swell is expected to arrive, followed by a series of reinforcing south swells that will boost surf heights to near or above seasonal averages into next week.
Small, medium period easterly swell generated from former Tropical Cyclone Genevieve continues to linger, but will gradually ease for the next couple of days. Choppy conditions will remain, generated by the moderate trade winds.
Surf along north facing and west shores will remain flat to tiny through the forecast period, except for areas exposed to the easterly trade wrap.
None.
