A high pressure ridge north of the state will dominate our weather pattern through the week. A upper level low west of the islands will move towards the islands, and could enhance showers this weekend.
Breezy trades continue through the period delivering periods of low clouds and showers windward and mauka. A band of showers will advance over portions of Windward Maui, Molokai, and Oahu this morning into this afternoon bringing periods of MVFR to those locales. A corresponding AIRMET is in effect. Otherwise, expect the typical nocturnal maximum in shower coverage prevailing VFR leeward.
AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration remains in effect for N thru E sections of Oahu thru Maui.
AIRMET Tango for low-level lee turb remains in effect.
Issued at 359 AM HST Tue May 26 2026 Fresh to strong east-northeasterly trades will persist through midweek as a strong surface ridge remains north of the state. This will allow the Small Craft Advisory to continue across most Hawaiian coastal waters through midweek. Expect a gradual downward trend through the second half of the week and especially by the weekend as a weakness in the ridge develops due to a front passing far to the north.
A fresh long-period south swell arrives today which will slowly build surf to near the seasonal average through Wednesday before easing Thursday. A more significant long-period south-southwest swell is expected by the weekend due to a storm-force low that passed southeast of New Zealand over the weekend. Satellite data showed a large fetch of 40 to 50 kt winds generating seas of 35 to just over 40 ft, focused toward, or just east of Hawaii along the 190-degree directional band. Expect surf to begin building locally Friday with 20+ second forerunners, then potentially peak around advisory level over the weekend.
Surf along exposed north- and west-facing shores will trend up once again today, peaking at small to moderate levels on Wednesday, before lowering Thursday and continuing to fade through the weekend. Surf along east facing shores will remain rough through midweek, then gradually lower later in the week as the trades ease.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Wednesday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Big Island Windward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Kauai Channel-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters- Maalaea Bay-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maui County Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters-Pailolo Channel.
