Moderate to locally breezy trades continue through the forecast period as showers focus primarly windward and mauka.
High amplitude longwave ridging remains positioned around 170W for the balance of the forecast period, strengthening to an impressive 599dm this weekend. This will in turn favor persistence of extensive high pressure at the surface and breezy trades well into next week. Around this high, a much drier and more stable mid-level airmass will advect into the area during Wednesday ensuring increasingly high stability during this time. Dewpoints will likewise dip toward the upper 60s to 70 degrees by Wednesday evening taking the edge off of recent muggy weather. An enhanced but shallow moisture field associated with benign troughing from a long-since dissipated tropical system will be on the doorstep in about a week and may bring an uptick in showers for windward and mauka zones.
Moderate trades expected through the period. Low cigs and SHRA possible over windward and mauka slopes. MVFR conds in heavier SHRA otherwise VFR prevails.
AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mtn obsc for windward locations of Kauai, Oahu and Maui. Conds expected to improve in the mid morning hours.
AIRMET Tango is in effect for mod low-level turb lee of terrain and may be needed for a few days.
Fresh to locally strong trades will persists as Tropical Depression Moke passes far southwest of the island chain and broad high pressure remains north of the state. Convection associated with this system will remain over the far southern portion of the offshore waters as it tracks west. Maui Leeward Waters has been removed from the Small Craft Advisory and now only includes the typical windy waters around Maui County and the Big Island.
Surf along east facing shores will remain rough and choppy due to persistent trade wind swell.
Surf along south facing shores will remain below summer average as a small medium period south swell slowly fades through Tuesday. An overlapping small, long period south southwest swell will fill in Tuesday that should keep surf below the summer average. A slightly larger long period south swell will fill in Wednesday and peak Thursday into Friday. This swell could push surf towards advisory thresholds before slowly fading over the weekend.
Surf along north facing shores will remain tiny.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Wednesday for Maalaea Bay- Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters.
