A cold front will March eastward down the island chain from Monday evening through Tuesday, before stalling out and diminishing near the Big Island on Wednesday. Moderate to breezy southwesterly winds will blow in ahead of the front, from Sunday night through Monday evening, and gusty northwest winds will follow behind the frontal passage. A stronger weather disturbance could impact the state Friday into next weekend with heavy rain and thunderstorms.
Issued at 357 AM HST Sun Feb 1 2026
Looking into the big picture on infrared satellite imagery this morning we see a fairly stable atmosphere over the islands under the influence of a weak subtropical ridge. Lingering low clouds near the eastern slopes of the Big Island are diminishing at this hour. Light large scale winds under this high pressure ridge will allow local scale onshore sea breezes to develop over all islands during the late morning to afternoon hours. This stable atmosphere with relatively low temperature inversion heights will limit cloud and shower development today.
Far northwest of the islands the next cold front currently 750 miles northwest of Kauai continues to track towards the Hawaiian Islands. Southwesterly winds are evident in the cumulus cloud bands in the warm sector air between Kauai and the approaching cold front. These warm and humid southwesterly winds will move into the islands ahead of the cold front, generating some prefrontal clouds and increasing shower trends from Sunday night into Monday afternoon. Moderate to breezy southwesterly winds will produce enhanced wind gusts from 35 to 45 mph along favored north and east slopes of island mountain ranges, especially for Oahu along the Waianae and Koolau mountain ranges on Monday. These stronger wind gusts will remain just below our Wind Advisory thresholds.
The main rain event arrives with the cold front by Monday night as the cold front swiftly moves eastward through the western islands of Niihau, Kauai and Oahu. A brief period of increasing clouds and showers remains in the forecast along the cold frontal band. This front will move into the islands in Maui County by early Tuesday morning, reaching the Big Island around noon on Tuesday. The front will weaken as it passes through and breaks up over each set of island mountains. Rainfall amounts will be moderate for the western islands in the roughly 0.25 to 0.60 inch range with decreasing amounts over the eastern islands in Maui and Hawaii Counties in the roughly 0.10 to 0.40 inch range as the frontal cloud band weakens. Cool and drier, more stable northwesterly winds will move in as the cold front passes through each island. The best way to observe cold frontal passage: the onset of northwesterly winds.
This hana hou (encore) weather pattern continues into the middle of the week as a weak high pressure passes eastward just north of the Hawaiian Islands. Light large scale winds return to the region, allowing local scale land and sea breezes to develop from Wednesday into Thursday. Expect increasing southwesterly winds to strengthen across the islands with increasing clouds and shower trends ahead of the next cold front from late Thursday through Friday.
This next cold front appears stronger than the previous system, which means higher rainfall amounts, and the potential for periods of heavy rain and isolated thunderstorms along the frontal cloud band. The timing and island by island track of this next cold front, due to arrive late Friday into Saturday, remains less certain, especially for the eastern Hawaiian Islands. Operational guidance has recently decided to stall the forward progression of this cold front as a strong cut off low forms in the upper levels by Saturday night. This new wrinkle in the forecast may significantly alter the weather impacts for the Saturday to Sunday time period. Pay close attention to the weather forecast updates with this storm, as the track and intensity of this stronger cold front will evolve as the time period grows shorter.
Issued at 955 AM HST Sun Feb 1 2026
VFR today with a relatively stable atmosphere. Light SE to S large scale winds will bring daytime onshore sea breezes over all islands. Large scale southwesterly winds will develop late today and strengthen through the overnight hours, becoming moderate to breezy Monday. Cloud coverage and shower trends will increase Monday as a cold front approaches the islands from the northwest.
No AIRMETs in effect and none are expected.
Issued at 357 AM HST Sun Feb 1 2026
A surface ridge will continue to drift southward over the islands today, leading to gentle to moderate south to southwest winds. Southwest winds will become fresh to strong tonight and Monday as a front approaches, and a Small Craft Advisory (SCA) will be needed for most waters. The front will move down the island chain Monday night and Tuesday, bringing gusty winds and heavy showers. Northwest winds behind the front will diminish and shift out of the east on Wednesday, followed by a return to southerly winds Thursday. Another front will likely reach the state late Friday or Saturday.
The current west-northwest swell will decline through Monday, with another round of extra-large surf due Tuesday. The High Surf Advisory for exposed north and west facing shores of most islands has been cancelled, as surf will be just below advisory levels this morning, and the SCA for elevated combined seas has also been dropped. Surf along north and west facing shores will diminish to small heights by Monday morning, followed by an increase during the afternoon as forerunners of the next northwest swell arrive. The next northwest swell (310 to 325 degrees) will build rapidly Monday night and will peak Tuesday and Wednesday as overlapping pulses pass through Hawaiian waters. Surf along most north and west facing shores will easily exceed High Surf Warning levels, and seas will exceed the 10 foot SCA threshold in many areas. The swell will decline Thursday and Friday, with surf falling below High Surf Advisory levels Thursday night. Another large swell is possible late Friday and Saturday.
Surf along east- and south-facing shores will remain small through much of the week, though an increase is possible along east shores next weekend.
A Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect through midday Monday, as peak monthly tides coincide with higher than predicted ocean levels. Expect minor flooding of low-lying coastal infrastructure as well as some some beach erosion during peak high tides between midnight and sunrise.
None.
