Light and breezy trades with light showers primarily occurring along windward exposures and higher terrain. A plume of moisture moving south of the islands will increase rain chances over the eastern end of the state through Monday, followed by drier mid week conditions. Brewing disturbances within the eastern Pacific will need to be monitored for tropical cyclone development the next few days.
Moderate to fresh trades expected for the next several days. MVFR conditions including ceilings and visibility should mainly impact windward and mauka spots today and tonight.
AIRMET Sierra is posted for mountain obscurations above 2000 feet for all windward sides of the islands will continue today due to a steady stream of showers carrying in with the trade winds.
AIRMET Tango is in effect for tempo moderate turbulence downwind of island terrain.
Fresh to locally strong trade winds will persist through at least Wednesday as high pressure remains anchored northeast of the state. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) has been extended for the windier waters and channels around Maui County and the Big Island through Monday afternoon. Borderline conditions will likely continue through at least Wednesday, which may prompt further extensions of the SCA. Later in the week, the focus will shift to the deep tropics southeast of the state. A tropical cyclone is likely to develop over the next few days and have an effect on local winds, seas and weather as early as Thursday.
Continued small overlapping south-southwest swells will produce south shore surf near August average through Monday and near to above average surf on Tuesday. A larger swell will arrive Tuesday night and may push surf to the High Surf Advisory level late Wednesday through Friday. This swell should slowly decrease next weekend.
Along east-facing shores, short-period trade wind swell will generate surf just below August average through Thursday. An increase in southeast swell is possible Friday and next weekend generated by a tropical cyclone that is likely to develop southeast of the islands over the next few days. Aside from wrapping trade wind energy, surf along north-facing shores will remain flat to tiny through the week.
Due to a combination of peak monthly high tides and water levels running higher than predicted in a few locations, a Coastal Flood Statement is in effect for minor coastal flooding possible around the afternoon high tide through at least Tuesday. Tides will be decreasing on Wednesday, but coastal flooding may continue to be possible around high tide for locations where water levels are running highest.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Monday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Maalaea Bay-Pailolo Channel.
