Locally breezy trade winds will ease to moderate levels Tuesday and Wednesday, then strengthen Thursday into the weekend. Showers will continue to favor windward and mauka areas, with an uptick in moisture expected Tuesday and Wednesday.
Breezy trade winds will gradually easy through Tuesday, carrying intermittent showers into windward areas of the islands through the forecast period, most active in the overnight and early morning hours. MVFR conditions are possible under showers, though VFR is generally expected to prevail. Trade winds are expected to gradually weaken over the next few days.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for low-level turbulence over and downwind of terrain, and is expected to continue for the next day or so as we remain under a breezy trade wind pattern.
Trade winds will gradually ease through Tuesday as the high pressure north of the islands lifts northeast and weakens. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) has been trimmed back to the windier waters and channels around Maui County and the Big Island through 6 AM tomorrow morning. The SCA will likely not be needed tomorrow as winds will have decreased to below criteria. These lighter trades should continue through Wednesday night, then may increase a bit Thursday and Friday as high pressure northeast of the islands drops a bit further south and tightens up the local pressure gradient.
The current small, long-period southwest swell will hold through tonight before gradually declining through the middle of the week. A series of overlapping small south and southwest swells will then give a small boost to the surf along south facing shores Thursday through next weekend, with perhaps a more sizable south swell moving in early next week.
Surf along east-facing shores will steadily decline through the middle of the week. Surf will then hold steady at slightly below seasonal averages along east facing shores late in the week through the weekend.
A series of small, long to medium period west to west-northwest swells generated by former Super Typhoon Bavi will be possible throughout the week. Otherwise, no significant north or northwest swells are expected, so surf along north-facing shores is expected to remain flat to tiny.
Peak monthly high tides combined with water levels that are running slightly higher than predicted will lead to minor flooding along the shoreline and in low-lying coastal areas. Coastal flooding is possible around the daily peak tide, which will be during the afternoon hours. A Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect through 6 PM Tuesday.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Tuesday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Maalaea Bay-Pailolo Channel.
