Strong high pressure far north of the state will produce breezy trade winds through the weekend and into the first half of next week. A slight weakening and veering of the trade winds is possible during the second half of next week as the high pressure moves northeast and low pressure potentially develops in the tropics to the SSW. An increase in moisture will bring enhanced showers to windward and mauka locations Saturday night into Sunday morning. The next plume of moisture could then arrive by the middle of next week.
Issued at 339 AM HST Sat Jul 11 2026
Moderate to locally breezy trades continue across the Hawaiian Islands, with pockets of embedded light to moderate shower activity expected to impact windward sites at times, occasionally spilling over into leeward areas. Expect VFR conditions to prevail across most locations, with occasional localized MVFR conditions in association with low clouds and shower activity.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate low-level turbulence over and downwind of terrain for all islands. This AIRMET will likely continue as this ongoing trade wind pattern persists.
Strong high pressure will remain anchored far north of the state, driving fresh to strong trade winds into the region. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect across all Hawaiian coastal waters through Sunday afternoon. The trades will weaken slightly heading into early next week, which will likely lead to the SCA being scaled back to the windier waters and channels around Maui County and the Big Island.
The current small medium-period south-southwest (190-200 degrees) swell will hold today just below the summer average. A small to moderate, long-period southwest swell (220 degrees) is expected to fill in later today through Monday, which will boost surf through early next week.
Surf along east-facing shores will remain rough and choppy through the forecast period as fresh to strong trades hold. A series of small, moderate period west (270 to 280 degrees) swells will hold into early next week, followed by a small long-period west swell heading into midweek, sourced from Typhoon Bavi in the far western Pacific. No significant north or northwest swells are expected, so surf along north- facing shores is expected to remain flat to tiny.
Higher than normal high tides are expected, with coastal flooding possible due to upcoming King Tides, particularly Monday through Wednesday. Interests immediately along the coasts in low-lying or vulnerable areas should continue to monitor forecasts.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Sunday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Big Island Windward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Kauai Channel-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters- Maalaea Bay-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maui County Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters-Pailolo Channel.
