Strong high pressure far north of the state will continue to produce breezy trades into the weekend. An increase in moisture will bring enhanced showers to windward and mauka locations with limited spillover to leeward areas through the weekend.
Stagnant upper air pattern between roughly 20N and 30N persists as the islands remain under the influence of a narrow upper ridge axis flanked on either side by cutoff lows. With very little changes expected through the forecast period expect the typical breezy trade weather pattern. A band of showers is moving across the island chain bringing increased showers focused over windward and mauka locations this morning. This band of showers is oriented perpendicular to the island chain and given observed west motion windward Oahu and Kauai look to take the brunt of the heavier showers.
The leading edge of a tropical airmass characterized by PWATs around 1.75" is evident on satellite imagery. This airmass will bring dewpoints into the low 70s and maintain the ongoing period of wetter trades into the weekend. Continued breezy trades will help take the edge off of mugginess as higher humidity builds. General signal from the medium range guidance is for increased shower coverage to continue into early next week.
Moderate to breezy trades will persist across the Hawaiian Islands, bringing in pockets of enhanced low-level showers across predominately windward and mauka areas. Expect VFR conditions to prevail across most locations, with occasional localized MVFR conditions in association with shower activity.
AIRMET Sierra remains in effect for mountain obscuration above 2500 feet for windward and mauka areas due to clouds and showers.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate low-level turbulence over and downwind of terrain for all islands. This AIRMET will likely continue through the next several days.
Strong high pressure centered north of the state continues to drive fresh to strong trade winds across all coastal waters. The Small Craft Advisory (SCA) has been extended for all Hawaiian waters through Friday afternoon. High-resolution guidance suggests that SCA winds will hover near the advisory threshold across the coastal marine zones through this time frame, with higher winds through the channels and typical windy areas. Very little change is expected to the strength of the high or the pressure gradient across the islands through this weekend, so further extensions to the SCA are anticipated.
A small to moderate, medium-period south-southwest (190-200 degrees) swell continues to generate moderate surf below advisory criteria along south facing shores this morning. This swell energy will gradually lower through the remainder of the week. Expect small surf for south facing shores leading into this weekend, with mainly background energy. A small to moderate, long- period southwest swell (220 degrees) is expected to fill in Saturday into early next week, but due to its Tasman source, could be more inconsistent than the current swell.
Surf along east-facing shores will remain rough and choppy through the week as fresh to strong trades hold. A series of small, moderate- to long-period west (270 to 280 degrees) swells are expected to arrive this weekend and linger into early next week, sourced from Typhoon Bavi in the far western Pacific. Surf along north-facing shores is expected to remain flat to tiny with no significant swells forecast from the north or northwest.
Looking ahead, higher than normal high tides will be possible beginning during the latter half of this weekend. Interests immediately along the coasts in low-lying or vulnerable areas should continue to monitor forecasts for possible coastal flooding due to the King Tides from Sunday through the first half of next week.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Friday for all Hawaiian waters-
