A remnant band of moisture covering Oahu to the Big Island stays in place through Monday night. An upper trough moving towards the islands will keep enhanced showers and isolated thunderstorms going into Monday morning across Maui County and Big Island, and Oahu to a lesser extent. As trades build in Monday, showers will begin to focus over windward and mauka areas.
The Kona low will move away to the northeast tonight while the remnant band of moisture covering Oahu to the Big Island stays in place through Monday night. An upper trough moving towards the islands will keep enhanced showers and isolated thunderstorms going into the morning across Maui County and Big Island, and Oahu to a lesser extent. Therefore, will extend the Flood Watch for Maui County and Big Island through the night. The Winter Storm Warning for the Big Island summits will also continue with a few more inches of snow expected above 12000 feet. Numerous, but lighter showers will continue across Maui County and Big Island on Monday.
Trade winds will begin filling in Monday west to east, reaching the Big Island by Tuesday. Once the trades arrive, the leftover clouds and showers from the Kona low will shift into a more typical trade wind distribution, favoring windward and mauka areas and much lighter than during the event itself. The moisture clears the islands by Wednesday with drier trade wind weather expected into next weekend.
Areas of showers, along with isolated thunderstorms, continue across the area. The departing Kona low will support additional showers and thunderstorms overnight from near Oahu east to the Big Island. Trades have begun spreading back into the state, reaching Kauai adn Oahu this afternoon. They will reach Maui County and Big Island from this evening into late tonight. Expect widespread MVFR conditions over the eastern half of the state through midday Monday, with local LIFR conditions possible under showers and any thunderstorms.
AIRMET Sierra is in effect for Lanai due to IFR in widespread low ceilings and showers and is expected to continue into tonight. AIRMET Sierra is also in effect for Oahu, Maui, Molokai, and the Big Island due to mountain obscuration due to showers and low clouds. This is also expected to continue into tonight.
AIRMET Zulu remains for light icing in layer 140-FL260 will also persist, mainly over the central portion of the state where the thick high clouds continue to stream over from the southwest.
Bands of scattered moderate to heavy showers, with an occasional embedded thunderstorm, moving in from the south will primarily impact those waters surrounding Maui County and Big Island. A boundary northwest of the island chain will travel southeast across the state through Monday. Gentle variable to southerly breezes downstream of this boundary will transition to strengthened north northeast winds behind the boundary passage. Moderate trades will become better established early this week, along with widely- scattered light showers, as the upper trough passes east of the state Tuesday.
The northeast swell that peaked yesterday will be on the decline through Monday. A small north swell will reinforce an already established background north swell Tuesday and Wednesday. This will maintain elevated north-facing shore surf the next few days. Very small south southwest swell will keep south-facing shore surf from going completely flat the remainder of the week. East surf will stay slightly elevated through Monday as result of a fading northeast swell and a little north wrap. East-facing shore short period wind waves will pick up at mid week in response to strengthened trades.
Flood Watch through late tonight for Lanai Mauka-Kahoolawe-Maui Windward West-Maui Leeward West-Haleakala Summit-Kona-Kohala-Big Island Interior-Molokai-Lanai Windward-Lanai Leeward-Lanai South- Maui Central Valley North-Maui Central Valley South-Windward Haleakala-Kipahulu-South Maui/Upcountry-South Haleakala-Big Island South-Big Island Southeast-Big Island East-Big Island North.
Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM HST Monday for Big Island Summits.
