Breezy trade winds will persist through Thursday, ease slightly this weekend, then restrengthen by midweek next week. Showers will favor windward and mauka areas, most frequently at night and during the early morning hours. Friday into the weekend, an upper-level disturbance and increasing moisture may bring muggier conditions and an uptick in trade wind shower activity, with pockets of heavy rain possible.
High pressure far north of the islands will maintain a breezy trade wind pattern through Thursday. Passing showers will continue to be carried in on the trade wind flow. At times these showers could bring some mountain obscuration to various islands, mostly at night and during the morning hours. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to prevail.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for mechanical turbulence to the lee of the mountains due to the breezy trade winds. Expect this to remain in place through at least tonight.
High pressure established north of the islands maintains locally strong trades until an upper disturbance causes winds to weaken by this weekend.
Small, short period NW swell fades today and will be replaced by a small to moderate, long period NW swell that will peak on Thursday bringing small to moderate surf to favored exposures. Small, medium to long period S swell maintains small surf along S shores. Meanwhile, locally strong trades maintain choppy short period conditions along E shores.
Tides peak around 2.5 ft MLLW this weekend. Combined with ongoing trades and a modest boost in S swell, water levels will peak around 3.0 ft late this weekend into early next week. Minor overwash of low lying coastal areas will be possible at high tide during this time.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Thursday for Kahoolawe- Kipahulu-Lanai Leeward-Maui Leeward West-Molokai Southeast- Molokai West-South Haleakala.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Thursday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Kaiwi Channel-Maalaea Bay-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maui County Windward Waters-Pailolo Channel.
