Moderate to breezy trades will persist through the middle of next week with minor fluctuations in speed. Brief pulses of enhanced showers will roll through on the trades during this time period, with showers favoring windward and mauka areas in the overnight to early morning hours.
Gusty trade winds will continue today and tonight. Shower coverage will increase from east to west during the next 24 hours, initially favoring windward portions of the Big Island and Maui today, then spreading toward Oahu and Kauai later today and tonight. Brief MVFR ceilings and visibility are expected in passing showers, with VFR conditions prevailing between showers.
AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration has been cancelled for now. Increasing shower coverage may bring renewed mountain obscuration later today and tonight.
AIRMET Tango remains for moderate low level turbulence downwind of island terrain.
Surface high pressure far north of the islands will strengthen as it drifts eastward through Saturday. Reinforcing high pressure will build far north of Hawaii on Sunday and will settle far northeast of the islands through early next week. Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail during this time, and a Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect for the typically windy waters around Big Island and Maui. The SCA has been extended through the weekend and may need to be expanded to additional waters.
A small northwest swell will continue to fade today as a moderate north-northwest swell arrives. Surf along north- and west-facing shores should build quickly and top out near or slightly above seasonal average during the peak of the swell late this afternoon into tonight, then slowly decline Saturday and Sunday as the dropping swell shifts more northerly. A smaller overlapping northwest swell should arrive at the same time and maintain small surf on Sunday. Both swells fade early next week.
A new long-periond south swell will peak today, keeping surf along south-facing shores just above seasonal average through tonight. This swell will slowly decline Saturday through early next week.
Surf along east-facing shores will gradually increase over the next couple of days as trade winds strengthen over the region. Expect some wrap from the moderate north-northwest swell Friday afternoon into Saturday. This swell along with developing rough trade wind swell will produce east shore surf above seasonal average Sunday through early next week.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Monday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Maalaea Bay-Pailolo Channel.
