Breezy trades continue well into next week with limited showers directed windward and mauka during this time.
Benign trade wind pattern through the forecast period as strong longwave ridging approaching 598dm at 500mb remains anchored along 170W longitude. This in turn favors expansive surface high pressure in maintenance of breezy trades through the middle of next week. An uptick in showers for windward and mauka zones is possible next week as moisture off the California coast becomes entrained in the trades, reaching the islands around Wednesday.
The tropics remain remain active with the primary focus at the moment being Tropical Storm Lowell. This system is forecast by NHC to become a hurricane this weekend. Even though it is already around 135W, or about 1500 miles SE of Hilo, weak steering winds delay any potential arrival to/around the Hawaiian islands to beyond the 7 day forecast period.
For 00Z - Moderate trades regime continues. Mostly VFR through the TAF period with some MVFR conditions with passing heavier showers/lower CIGs, highest chances this afternoon and overnight. Expect low CIGs and SHRA over windward and mauka slopes most areas and reflected as VCSH most TAFs.
AIRMET Tango is in effect for mod low-level turb lee of terrain and may be needed for a few days.
High pressure located far north of the waters will remain nearly stationary through the forecast period maintaining moderate to locally strong trade winds. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) has been extended for the windier waters and channels around Maui County and the Big Island through Saturday night. SCA conditions look to persist through the beginning of next week.
Surf along south facing shores have peaked through the day just just below advisory levels today as the moderate medium to long period south swell will likely slowly start to decline through the night. Another south swell similar in size is expected during the middle of next week bringing surf back up to near High Surf Advisory level conditions.
Surf along east facing shores will remain choppy in response to the locally strong trade winds over and upstream of the islands. A small medium period east swell from Tropical Storm Iselle has filled in and will hold through Saturday. Another round of east to southeast swells are possible late next week but remains at high uncertainty due to the potential track and intensity of Tropical Storms in the east Pacific.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Sunday for Maalaea Bay- Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters.
