Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City Nc

303 pm EDT Sat aug 19 2017

Synopsis

A cold front will become stationary across the area tonight into Sunday, then dissipate early next week. Another cold front will approach the area in the middle of next week and move through the area by the end of the week.

Near Term

Through tonight As of 3 pm Sat, The cold front will become stationary across the area tonight. Current convection will begin to diminish in coverage and intensity this evening. Will carry 30-40% PoPs south and east of a line from OAJ to FFA through midnight then along the immediate coast and southern Outer Banks after midnight. While still warm, low temperatures will not be quite so oppressive tonight with low to mid 70s behind the front inland, with the upper 70s confined to the Outer Banks.

Short Term

Sunday As of 3 pm Sat, A still hot but mainly dry airmass for the majority of the area. Slightly higher moisture will be found near and south of the front itself, and that is where we will confine precip chances to just a slight chance. Highs will be in the lower 90s along the coastal plain inland to mid/upper 80s at the beaches.

Long Term

Sunday night through Saturday As of 3 pm Saturday, No significant changes to the forecast with a quiet start to the week followed by a frontal passage with widespread showers and thunderstorms mid week and cooler and drier air for the end of the week into next weekend.

Sunday Night through Tuesday, A front will wash out across the. Area. The end result will be a slightly more comfortable but still seasonably hot and humid air mass. There will be slightly higher moisture near and south of the front itself, and that is where we will confine precip chances. Highs through the period will be around 90 inland to mid 80s at the beaches.

Wednesday into Thursday, Best shot for precipitation over the extended period will come late Wednesday into Thursday as a new, stronger front moves into the area. With consistency in for this period. Models for this feature, elevated PoPs to 60% Wednesday Night into Thursday.

Friday into Saturday. Good news with the frontal passage will be some significant relief from the heat and humidity. Expect mostly dry conditions with highs in the lower 80s both Friday and Saturday and lows falling into the mid 60s inland.

Aviation

19z Saturday through Thursday Through Sunday As of 3 pm Saturday, VFR conditions should prevail outside of scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms, which may produce brief periods of sub-VFR conditions, mainly at OAJ and EWN. Sunday is shaping up to be a mostly dry day. Light surface winds through the period, generally 5 knots or less.

Sunday night through Thursday As of 3 pm Saturday, VFR through Tuesday. Sub VFR conditions possible late Wednesday into Thursday in scattered showers and storms.

Marine

Short Term /through Sunday/ As of 3 pm Sat, Quiet boating conditions in the short term with a stationary front over the inland areas. South of Oregon Inlet winds will be mainly south to southwest 5-15 knots with seas 2-4 feet. North of Oregon Inlet and on the Albemarle Sound winds will be variable around 5 knots with seas around 2 feet.

Sunday night through Thursday As of 3 pm Saturday, Quiet boating conditions continue through Tuesday. During this period winds will be 10 kts or less with wave heights 2 to 3 feet. With a boundary near the coastal waters wind directions will vary quite a bit during this time depending on location on the water (north to south). Tuesday Night winds begin to increase out of the south as a front approaches and by Wednesday marine conditions become less favorable. Ahead of the front southwest winds increase 10 to 20 KT, with seas building to 3 to 5 feet as a gradient tightens ahead of the front. Timing of the frontal passage will begin Wednesday Night and by Thursday it should be through all the waters. Seas will be 2 to 4 feet Thursday.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Nc, none. Marine, none.

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