Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City Nc

221 pm EST Fri Dec 15 2017

Synopsis

Weak low pressure will deepen as it lifts to the northeast tonight pushing a cold front through the region. High pressure will build in from the west Saturday through Sunday. A complex frontal system will affect the region early next week with high pressure building in for the middle of next week.

Near Term

Through tonight As of 215 PM Friday, As low pres moves NE away from the area and deepens tonight it will push a cold front thru. Sct to bkn high clouds expected into the evening ahead of a short wave then clearing overnight as drier air moves in. Combo of CAA and decent radiational cooling will lead to lows in the upr 20s/low 30s inland with 35 to 40 beaches where better breeze will persist.

Short Term

Saturday through Saturday night As of 215 PM Friday, High pres will build across with clr skies expected as very dry airmass moves in. Below normal temps with highs Sat upr 40s/low 50s and lows Sat night upr 20s/low 30s inland to mid/upr 30s beaches.

Long Term

Sunday through Friday As of 300 AM Friday, Weak ridging builds into the area this weekend followed by a complex system moving into the region early next week bringing better chances of rain.

Sunday, Weak ridging and sfc high pressure will keep conditions dry. High pressure moves offshore Sun with increasing clouds ahead of the next approaching shortwave. Return flow will bring a warming trend Sun with highs expected in the mid 50s to around 60.

Sunday night through Tuesday night, A better chance of rain expected early next week as a series of dampening shortwave troughs lift out of the southern plains and lift across the area tapping into Gulf moisture. While model guidance is in somewhat better agreement this morning, there remains some differences with the strength and timing of the systems. 00z models have trended drier with an upper ridge centered over the western Caribbean and ridging into the Southeast holding strong with very little shortwave energy remaining as they move across the region, however we do get better jet dynamics Tue as a northern stream trough pushes across the region with the attendant cold front pushing across the region Tue night. Temps expected to be above normal this period with predominant SW to W flow across the region with highs generally in the low to mid 60s and lows in the 40s inland to around 50 coast.

Wednesday through Thursday, High pressure builds into the region Wed, then pushes offshore Thu ahead and the next northern stream system digging into the Plains with dry conditions expected across eastern NC. Highs expected to be in the 50s Wed, then warming a few degrees to the upper 50s/low 60s Thu. Wed night lows expected in the 30s inland to low 40s coast.

Aviation

18z Friday through Wednesday Through Saturday As of 1205 PM Friday, High confidence in VFR conditions through this TAF period. Sct to bkn high clouds into early evening ahead of short wave then mainly clr rest of period as short wave exits. Combo of light WNW breeze and lowering dewpts shld preclude fog from forming late tonight despite clr skies.

Saturday night through Tuesday As of 315 AM Friday, Pred VFR conditions expected through Sunday. High pressure builds into the region over the weekend but will see increasing clouds Sun in advance of the next system approaching the region. Rain chances increase late Sun night or Mon and continue through Tue with periods of sub-VFR conditions possible.

Marine

Tonight and Sat As of 215 PM Friday, WSW winds are starting to pick up as low pres deepens to the N. Expect cont increasing WSW winds this aftn becoming WNW this evening as low cont to deepen and cold front crosses. Sca may be a bit marginal some wtrs but shld at least see period of gusts aoa 25 kts peaking this evening. As the high builds closer Sat winds will become W less than 15 kts in the aftn. Seas will reach 4 to 7 ft this evening, highest outer central wtrs. Seas will subside to 3 to 5 ft toward morning then reach 2 to 3 feet later Sat.

Saturday night through Tuesday As of 330 AM Friday, Winds diminish to 5-10 kt Sat night, then becomes S/SW around Sun afternoon as the high moves offshore while seas subside to 1-2 ft late Sat night and Sun. The next system approaches from the west early next week but uncertainty remains with the details leading to a low confidence forecast. Do expect winds to increase some as the system approaches and have W/SW winds increasing to around 10-15 kt Sun night and Mon and 10-20 kt Mon night and Tue ahead of a stronger cold front. Seas expected around 2-3 ft Sun night and Mon building to 3-5 ft Mon night and Tue and may build up to 6 ft across the outer portions of the central/southern waters late Tue.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Nc, none. Marine, small craft advisory from 6 pm this evening to 3 am EST Saturday for amz135. Small craft advisory until 7 am EST Saturday for amz152-154. Small craft advisory until 3 am EST Saturday for amz156-158. Small craft advisory from 5 pm this afternoon to 6 am EST Saturday for amz150.

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