Arctic high pressure crests over ENC tonight. High pressure shifts offshore by the middle of next week with moderating conditions expected. Another strong cold front then moves through Thursday night with high pressure for the end of the week into the weekend.
Until 6 am Tuesday morning As of 7 PM Mon,
Key Messages:
- Coldest night of the season so far as lows drop into the lower teens tonight under clear skies and calm winds
- Possible record lows tonight (see climate section below).
Arctic high pres will crest over ENC tonight. The ridge axis will be centered over srn portions of ENC, and with very dry airmass in place and calm/light wind, ideal radiational cooling will be in place. Continued to trend towards the coldest/below guidance. Coldest areas will be swrn and srn zones near Croatan/Hoffman/Holly Shelter regions, and nern mainland zones. Temps drop to the mid teens here, and will be close to cold wx advisory thresholds once again, and upper teens to mid 20s along the coast.
6 am Tuesday morning through 6 pm Tuesday As of 145 PM Mon,
Key Messages:
- Below normal temperatures continue
High pressure remains centered over the area Tue, and after a very cold start temps will be gradually warming, though still about 10-15 deg below normal. Low level thickness values, W-SW flow and sunny skies support highs in the mid/upper 40s.
Tuesday night through Monday As of 145 PM Mon,
Tuesday night through Thursday, High pressure continues to slide offshore as gradual warming trend continues (highs expected to warm into the 50s Wednesday and into the 60s by Thursday). Precip chances increase late Thursday (10-30%) and Thursday night (60-70%) with another cold front approaching and moving through the region. Left in a 20% thunder prob, but instability is very slim on latest model suite.
Friday through Monday, Cold front pushes east by week's end, with dry conditions returning. Zonal flow ensues behind fropa, so temps will actually be above climo behind it, with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
00z Tuesday through Saturday As of 7 PM Monday,
Key Messages
- VFR conditions expected through the period
VFR conditions persist for almost all of ENC, including TAF sites, and are expected to persist through the period as high pressure will remain rooted across the Mid-Atlantic.
Outlook: VFR conditions persist through midweek before the next chance at sub-VFR conditions Thursday into Fri with the approach of a frontal system.
As of 145 PM Mon,
Key Messages:
- Winds and seas grad diminish this afternoon and evening
- Gale conditions possible for the Gulf Stream waters Thursday night to early Friday as next cold front approaches, with SCA possible rest of the marine waters.
Latest obs show NW-N winds 10-20 kt gusting 20-25 kt with seas 3-5 ft south of Ocracoke and 4-7 ft north. Scas continue for the coastal waters through this afternoon and early evening. Moderate to light W-SW 5-15 kt returns Tue and Wed. Gusts may again increase to near/just above SCA criteria across the Gulf Stream waters Wednesday. Seas will be generally 2-5 ft, with the potential for some 6-footers across the Gulf Stream Wednesday afternoon.
Thursday night into Friday, Another round of SCA conditions looks likely late this week as southwesterly flow strengthens ahead of the next approaching cold front starting late Thursday and lasting into Friday. With warm offshore waters, gale conditions possible over the Gulf Stream with strong southwesterly flow in place ahead of next cold front. Winds turn nwrly on Friday behind the cold front and may remain elevated in the 15-25 kt range before diminishing prior to the weekend.
Nc, none. Marine, none.
