Weak high pressure remains over the area through tomorrow. Coastal low forms early this week, with a second coastal low possible mid/late next week.
Through tonight As of 2 PM Saturday, High pressure remains in control tonight with zonal flow aloft. Light/calms winds will bring descent radiational cooling conditions again but could be tampered a bit with greater coverage of high clouds at times. Guidance has low temps a couple degrees higher than this morning, mainly in the low 40s inland (low-to-mid 50s along the immediate coast). Some sheltered locations and areas that see more breaks in higher cloud cover are likely to dip into the upper-30s.
Sunday As of 2 PM Saturday, High pressure begins to retreat to the north and east on Sunday as ridging builds across the Hudson Bay vicinity. Meanwhile, a cutoff low will slow advance eastward across the lower-Mississippi River Valley and into the Southeast, with its accompanying weak low pressure system also advancing eastward across the Gulf Coast states. While the pressure gradient will begin to tighten slightly, expect Sunday to be largely similar to today. Mid-to-high clouds will build through the day, keeping highs in the mid-to-upper 60s. Dry conditions persist before chances of rain begin to build into ENC on Monday.
Sunday night through Saturday As of 1:40 PM Saturday,
Confidence is increasing in multiple coastal lows to develop along the Southeastern US coastline this week. Periods of heavy rain and gusty winds are expected, which could bring additional impacts to ENC.
Previous Discussion, As of 130 AM Saturday,
Key Messages:
- Mild and dry conditions expected Sunday
- Uncertain pattern brings chance(s) for rainfall next week as potentially two coastal lows impact the region
High pressure to our north keeps us dry through Sunday. Meanwhile, a deep cutoff low moves across the Ohio valley Saturday, with an associated surface trough or weak surface low trekking the Mississippi valley during this time. The energy from these features will encounter with the baroclinic zone along the Gulf Stream early next week, and produce a coastal low off the coast of the Carolinas and will strengthen and move north through next week. Behind this feature, upper level low will meander over the eastern US, and an embedded shortwave will move in mid to late week, potentially producing a second coastal low. Confidence in the formation of the first coastal low early next week is increasing, although distribution of rainfall and strength of winds remains tied to the location and strength of the low, which is still uncertain. If ridging from the north remains persistent, or the coastal low forms further offshore, inland could be dry with precip generally offshore and along the coast. With the overnight guidance, this seems to be the more likely of the two outcomes. If the ridging from the north gives way to the trough approaching from the west, and/or the coastal low forms closer to our coast, a higher rainfall potential exists across ENC. While still not discounted, this scenario seems to be the less likely outcome. Behind this first system, we could see another trough move through the region mid- late week, potentially spawning off another coastal low. It is too soon to determine coastal impacts next week from either system, but higher waves and stronger NE winds could impact the typical vulnerable locations.
18z Saturday through Thursday Through tonight As of 2 PM Saturday, VFR conditions will continue to prevail through the TAF period with light northerly winds and periods of high clouds streaming across ENC at times.
Sunday through Wednesday As of 2 AM Saturday, Predominantly VFR conditions likely to last through Sunday with mild and dry high pressure prevailing across the mid-Atlantic. Monday onwards rain chances and gusty wind potential increases, highest along the coast.
Through tonight As of 2 PM Saturday,
Key Messages:
- Good boating conditions linger through Sunday
High pressure begins to retreat to the north and east tonight into tomorrow. Pressure gradient will start to tighten ahead of an approaching weak low pressure system to the west, with northeasterly winds 10-20 knots on Sunday. 3-4 ft waves this afternoon persist into tomorrow.
Sunday through Wednesday As of 1:45 PM Saturday,
Confidence is increasing in multiple coastal lows bringing a prolonged period of trecherous marine conditions across all waters through much of next week. With the wind forecast continuing to trend up, SCA conditions are expected to start early Monday, expanding from south to north through the day. Ne winds will continue to strengthen, reaching gale force gusts by Monday evening and continuing through Tuesday. Winds will relax only slightly on Wednesday with widespread SCA gusts expected. Seas will build from 3-4 ft on Sunday to 6-9 ft on Monday. Seas will continue to build through Tuesday, peaking at 10-12 ft across the majority of the coastal waters. Seas will be highest off of Cape Hatteras, with the current forecast peaking at 10-16 ft Tuesday night. Seas will lay down through the day Wednesday, dropping to 6-8 ft (8-11 ft off Cape Hatteras). These values are subject to change depending on the strength, path, and speed of the coastal lows.
Nc, none. Marine, none.
