Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City Nc

652 am EDT Fri Jun 22 2018

Synopsis

A front will lift back to just north of the area today and tonight. Another front will move into the region Monday, pushing south of the area Monday night. High pressure will build into Eastern North Carolina from the north Tuesday and Wednesday then continue to influence the weather while moving offshore Thursday.

Near Term

Until 6 pm this evening As of 645 AM Friday, Looking a mainly dry morning across the area. Light echoes on the radar over our far southwest are likely just some moisture in the mid levels as we have not seen any obs of rain the past few hours. Cloud tops are also warming as this area of cloud cover moves our way. Kept a slight chances for light sprinkles in this morning but most will remain dry. The bulk of the activity though today will again come starting around 17Z with mesoscale boundaries along with some upper level support moving into the area. Highest chances for storms will remain near and just west of Highway 17. Spc continues to place the majority of the area outside of the Crystal Coast in a marginal risk for severe weather. High PWATS (precipitable water) values and high CAPES will remain with us so the primary threats will remain isolated damaging winds and locally heavy rain. With high instability, intense lightning is also likely. Hail threat while never ruled out with such high instability values will continue to be diminished a bit with such a warm and moist atmosphere.

Outside of convection the main story will be the continued heat and humidity. High temps will be similar to yesterday or into the low 90s most areas, with middle 90s over our central and southwest areas. Heat indices will top out again around 100 or just slightly above.

Short Term

6 pm this evening through 6 am Saturday As of 310 AM Friday,

Convection from this afternoon will likely continue into the first part of the night before dying down. With cloud cover lows again will hold in the 70s and remain mild.

Long Term

Saturday through Thursday As of 340 AM Friday, Hot and humid SW flow is expected to continue through the weekend. A moderately strong cold front is then forecast to move into Eastern NC Monday, pushing south of the region Monday night. High pressure will then build into the area from the north Tuesday and Wed then continue to influence the weather while moving offshore Thursday into Friday with temps near normal. Broad troughing aloft will keep the threat for convection in the forecast over the weekend. The cold front will bring even better chances for precipitation from Sunday night into Monday night, then much lower but not non zero chances for mainly diurnally driven showers and storms are expected from Tuesday into Thursday as high pressure builds tends to inhibit widespread/organized convection.

Saturday through Monday, Unsettled muggy weather is expected during this period. Broad upper troughing is expected to persist over the area over the weekend aiding lift of hot/humid airmass which will be in place across the Carolinas leading to scattered showers and thunderstorms. The cold front will continue the threat for showers and storms Mon/Mon night.

Tue through Thu, The front is forecast to push south of the region Tue as high pressure builds over the area from the north into Wed. The high is forecast to move offshore while continuing to influence the weather Thu. As is typical for this time of year, there will be enough residual moisture and instability behind the front to warrant low chance PoPs each day for a few mainly diurnally driven showers or storms. Temps will be closer to normal values in the low to mid 80s.

Aviation

12z Friday through Tuesday Through tonight

As of 645 AM Friday, Brief MVFR vsbys can't be ruled out through 12Z in light fog but VFR is expected to be predominant. Vfr continues through early afternoon before another round of thunderstorms are possible. Included a VCTS for each terminal with the threat of convection greater than 50%. Brief IFR in vsbys and cigs possible in any thunderstorms along with brief gusty winds. Too far out to include restrictions but we may be able to include some tempo groups as we get closer to this afternoon and confidence grows.

VFR returns tonight after storms die down in the evening. Winds near calm overnight become south to southwest 10 to 15 kts the rest of today.

Saturday through Tuesday As of 340 AM Friday, VFR conditions are expected through most of the long term, with the exception of occasional sub VFR conditions possible each day in scattered showers and thunderstorms with the greatest threat Mon afternoon and evening.

Marine

Through tonight As of 645 AM Friday, Southwest to south winds at 10 kts or less this morning. No big changes needed. Winds generally out of the south to south- southwest through the period will increase later today into tonight, as waves build through the period.

South to southwest winds through mid morning will gradually increase this afternoon as the pressure gradient over the waters increases. Winds will increase to 15 kts, with a few gusts over 20 kts possible especially over the Pamlico and the central waters off Cape Hatteras. Winds will remain elevated through tonight or generally 15 kts out of the south-southwest, but again slightly higher over the Pamlico and central waters. With the increasing winds waves of around 3 feet early today will build to 3 to 5 feet especially over the central waters by tonight.

Saturday through Tuesday As of 340 AM Friday, SW flow increases to 20-25 kt late Sat and continues through Sun night ahead of the cold front. Winds Monday shift to NW-N and diminish to 10 to 15 kt behind the front. Tue winds are forecast to be NE 10 to 15 kt as high pressure builds over the waters from the north. Seas build to 3 to 5 ft late Sat, then 4-7 ft Sat night through Sun night. Seas are then forecast to subside to 3 to 5 ft late Mon morning and 2 to 4 ft Tue afternoon.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Nc, none. Marine, none.

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