Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City Nc

935 am EST Tue Feb 19 2019


High pressure will build north of the area today then continue to extend southwest into the region tonight as a warm front approaches the coast. The warm front will move into the area Wednesday. The front will shift back and forth several times late in the week, resulting in a continued unsettled weather pattern.

Near Term

Today As of 935 AM Tue, Strong high pres will extend S into the region today. Low lvls will remain dry, however good deal of moisture at mid/upr lvls and will see plenty of clouds thru the day. Latest radar imagery shows area of sprinkles/light rain still pushing across the southern tier this morning. Added mention of sleet as well for a few hours this morning, getting some reports, had some brief light sleet here at the office. Increased pops a bit through this afternoon based on radar trends. Better precip chances late this afternoon going into tonight, assoc with weak isent lift. Clouds and NE winds will keep temps cool today with low/mid 40s NE to upr 40s/near 50 far S.

Short Term

Tonight As of 215 AM Tue, Isent lift will grad increase tonight as warm/coastal front approaches the coast. Init low lvls slow to moisten so kept pops low thru evening then increase to good chc most areas late. Kept small area of sleet mention in far NW this evening where temps aloft near freezing, however precip will be very light and sfc temps well above freezing so no impacts. Lows mainly mid 30s N to upr 30s lower 40s srn cst, temps may begin to rise a bit late cst as winds increase and become more onshore.

Long Term

Wednesday through Monday As of 215 am Tue, Mostly unsettled weather expected through the period, as numerous frontal systems/low pressure areas/shortwaves impact the region.

Wed and Wed night, As a deep mid-level trough lingers in the southwest United States, a moist SW upper level flow will be present over the SE CONUS. A weak shortwave moving up the coast, combined with coastal front/inverted trough developing off the NC coast and warm front lifting north will be a focus for isentropically driven rain Wednesday. Will maintain chance PoPs Tue night with only weak isentropic lift and modest moisture supply. Likely to categorical PoPs look good for Wed with strong isentropic lift and much deeper moisture in place. As the shortwave moves off to the northeast Wed night, PoPs will decrease from southwest to northeast.

In-situ damming on Wed with interior zones only getting to around 50, while near the coast winds will be onshore out of the E and S allowing for temps to warm through the 50s and eventually around 60 for the eastern zones. Continued non- diurnal temp curve Wed night as all areas become entrenched in the warm sector with temps warming through the 50s and low 60s everywhere.

Thursday through Friday, Tough forecast this period, as wavering front will be nearby, and continued broad swrly winds aloft will mean rain chances each period. Deep moisture in place along with vort lobe slowly sinking through the area will result in PoPs in the good chance to likely categories.

Highs Thu look to be quite warm with temps in the 70s (60s beaches), as sfc front should be just north of E NC. Temps Friday appear to drop into the 50s as wavering front looks to drop back south as a cold front, though timing of this is difficult this far out.

Saturday through Sunday, Somewhat better chc for rain next weekend, especially Saturday, as the next low pressure area/shortwave will swing through the Ohio valley and bring lift/moisture through the region once again. Temps look to be quite warm as area will be in warm sector with swrly flow expected, with highs in the 60s to 70s. Conditions finally dry out for Monday as the front continues moving away from the southeast coast and high pressure builds in from the northwest.


14z Tuesday through Saturday Through tonight As of 615 AM Tue, VFR conditions expected through bulk of the TAF period with poss sub VFR beginning to develop late. High pres will build to the N today then extend SW over inland areas tonight as cstl front develops just offshore. Good deal of mid and high clouds expected today with isold sprinkles srn tier this morn that not expected to impact vsbys. Clouds will grad lower tonight as isent lift increases and expect sct rain to develop late. Looks like cigs will stay in VFR range til late tonight then could see lower to MVFR srn tier.

Wed through Sat As of 215 am Tue, Sub-VFR conditions for most of the week in an unsettled weather pattern, with good chances of rain each period.


Today and tonight As of 935 AM Tue, Poor boating most wtrs thru the period. Strong high pres will pass to the N today then extend SW into the area tonight as warm front approaches the beaches late. N winds 15 to 25 kts this morn will become NE today and diminish to around 15 kts N but stay elevated close to 20 kts central and S. Gradient remains pinched tonight, espcly central and srn wtrs as ridge of high pres conts inland and front approaches/develops near coast late. Ne winds will be in the 15 to 20 kt range N and 20 to 25 kt S. Over central and srn wtrs seas will be in the 4 to 6 foot range with some 7 footers developing tonight. Extended the SCA for Pamlico Sound and Central/srn wtrs thru the period. Seas in the northern waters are still running 6-7 ft, so may need to extend SCA into later this afternoon and evening.

Wed through Sat As of 215 am Sat, Poor boating conditions forecast through most of the period in unsettled weather pattern. Sca conditions will be ongoing on Wednesday as the front to the south lifts toward the coast, with the resulting flow veering to SE and then SSW in tightening pressure gradient. Sca continues Wed night into Thu in messy pattern with a front moving in from the west. Flow will be NE on Friday as the front moves to the south and becomes stationary, and at this time sub-SCA conditions are probable, though wind forecast confidence is low this far out. Winds will veer to SE to S on Saturday as coastal trof develops. Winds/seas forecast to remain below SCA for now.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Nc, none. Marine, small craft advisory until 7 am EST Wednesday for amz135. Small craft advisory until 7 pm EST Thursday for amz152-154- 156-158. Small craft advisory until 1 pm EST this afternoon for amz150.

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