Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City Nc

307 am EDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Synopsis

A tropical airmass will linger into Monday as a cold front approaches from the northeast. The front will meander just off the coast through Wednesday. High pressure will build in from the west Wednesday through late next week.

Near Term

Through today As of 3 AM Sunday, Bulk of precipitation has moved offshore with only a few stray showers on land. Think rain chances wil be minimal through most of the morning with little additional activity indicated upstream, only a few storms in the Charleston area and over southeast Georgia. Latest high-resolution HRRR and NSSL WRF models indicate some redevelopment along the sea breeze this afternoon and will have high chance PoPs along the immediate coast tapering to slight chance Coastal Plains with no PoPs over the far northwestern CWA. Stream of deep-layer moisture indicated by water-vapor satellite will keep skies on the cloudy side today, but there should be enough breaks in the clouds to allow high temperatures to reach the mid to upper 80s.

Short Term

Tonight As of 3 AM Sunday, Latest GFS and ECMWF models show ribbon of deeper moisture and omega right along and just off the coast tonight and will keep low chance PoPs over the coastal/Sounds portion of our CWA tonight with no PoPs inland. Numerical guidance indicates some lower dewpoints and slightly cooler low temperature readings tonight behind weak frontal boundary with mid 60s inland ranging to mid 70s Outer Banks.

Long Term

Monday through Saturday As of 3 AM Sun, Scattered showers expected Monday and Tuesday. Then, cooler and much drier air will spread into Eastern NC Wednesday through late week. Typical summertime pattern re-develops late week and next weekend.

Monday through Tuesday, Frontal boundary will linger along the coast through Monday morning, and could see isolated to scattered showers along the coast. A strong mid-level shortwave will move through Virginia and the Carolinas Tuesday, supporting scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Marginal instability but strong shear and much cooler temps aloft, 500mb temps drop to -12/-13C, could see some small hail. Will continue chance pops. Will keep sc thunder mention both days, but think it will be isolated. Low level thickness values and pred N/NE flow support highs in the low/mid 80s Mon and Tue, with dewpoints in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

Wednesday through Saturday, Strong high pressure will move overhead on Wednesday, and off the coast late week into the weekend. While overhead, this high will provide a somewhat refreshing airmass with lower humidities and cooler temps. Temperatures quickly warm back up however, as southwest winds return on Thursday and highs creep back to the upper 80s/90 degrees late week and the weekend. Low temps for the period will range mostly from the upper 50s/low 60s inland to upper 60s/low 70s along the coast. Typical summertime redevelops late week into next weekend, with troughing inland and high pressure offshore. Dry wx will continue through late week, with scattered diurnal convective chances next weekend.

Aviation

06z Sunday through Thursday Through 06z Monday As of 1 AM Sunday, A mixed bag aviation-wise this evening with occasional lower ceilings at the southern-most TAF sites of KEWN and KOAJ and generally VFR conditions elsewhere. Current trends are a bit more optimistic as precipitation is moving out quickly along the coast and additional showers to the west in SC are fairly light, so think mostly VFR conditions can be expected through the TAF cycle, although will include Vicinity showers/tstorms at KOAJ given the latest high-resolution HRRR forecast showing additional showers or storms near the coast from daybreak into mid-morning.

Monday through Thursday As of 3 AM Sun, Pred VFR conditions expected through the period. Scattered showers and storms may produce brief period of sub-VFR conditions Tuesday. As usual, patchy fog/stratus will be possible most mornings.

Marine

Today and tonight As of 305 AM Sunday, Winds continue to slowly diminish but some 6-foot seas are persisting over the outer fringes of the central and southern waters and will keep SCA in place south of Oregon Inlet through 8 AM. Winds should subside to 10 knots or less with seas 2-4 feet by later this afternoon into tonight. Winds will veer to more W/WNW later tonight behind an initial cold front ahead of a stronger front around Tuesday night or so.

Monday through Thursday As of 3 AM Sun, Generally benign and pleasant boating conditions expected through the period. Models now showing a stronger surge behind the initial front Monday morning. Increased winds to 10-15 kt with seas 2-3 ft, but there is the potential for a brief period of 15-20 kt Mon morning. Surface high pressure will build in over the area Tuesday night, crest over the waters Wednesday, moving offshore Thursday. N/NW 5-10 kt Tue, N/NE 5-15 kt Wed, becoming S/SE 5-15 kt Thu, with seas generally 2-3 ft.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Nc, beach hazards statement through this evening for ncz095-098- 103-104. Marine, small craft advisory until 10 am EDT this morning for amz152- 154. Small craft advisory until 8 am EDT this morning for amz156- 158.

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