Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City Nc

428 pm EDT Fri aug 17 2018

Synopsis

High pressure will extend over the area from well offshore through the weekend with a weak trough over the central piedmont. A weak cold front will drop into the northern forecast area Monday and Monday night, then lift back to the north Tuesday. Another cold front will approach the area late next week.

Near Term

Through tonight As of 2 PM Friday, A moist and unstable airmass remains in place over eastern North Carolina as a SW flow continues around high pressure offshore and a deepening mid-level trough pushing across the Mid-West. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue this afternoon, mainly inland of the sea breeze, then expect activity to diminish this evening with loss of heating. Expect storms to remain below severe limits with limited shear, but with precipitable water values around 2 inches, heavy downpours will be possible. Some guidance is showing weak shortwave energy lift across the area late tonight with a few showers lifting across the area after midnight, but limited PoPs to slight chance since it's not supported by all guidance. Light SW winds expected to continue overnight preventing fog development. Lows expected in the mid 70s inland to upper 70s along the coast.

Short Term

Saturday As of 215 PM Friday, High pressure remains centered offshore while the upper trough continues to advance toward the area. Continued moist and unstable airmass will be in place with scattered showers and thunderstorms developing in the afternoon. Storms could become more numerous late in the day across NW section as shortwave energy begins to move into the area. Shear continues to be weak, around 15 kt or less, and expect the storms to remain below severe levels but with PW values around 2" could see locally heavy rainfall rates. Highs expected to be around 90 inland to mid/upper 80s coast.

Long Term

Saturday night through Friday As of 3 AM Fri, A mean upper trough is forecast over the Eastern US through the period while low level southerly flow continues to circulate a very moist airmass across our region with PW values AOA 2". The favorable combination of forcing aloft and moisture/instability in the low levels will result in unsettled conditions this weekend through next week with precipitation chances at or above normal and temperatures at or slightly below normal.

A weak front is forecast to drop southward into the northern forecast area Monday and Monday night, then lift back north Tuesday. Another cold front will approach the area late next week. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase above climatological norms through most of the period as conditions become favorable for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Will continue chance to likely pops. Temps are expected to be near normal with highs inland around 90 Sat, then cooling slightly to the mid to upper 80s Sunday through mid next week.

Aviation

20z Friday through Wednesday Through Saturday As of 2 PM Friday, Expect VFR conditions to prevail through the TAF period outside of showers and thunderstorms. Expect scattered convection this afternoon to diminish with loss of heating this evening. Isolated showers possible late tonight into Saturday morning, with activity picking up again Saturday afternoon with heating and approaching mid-level system. Sw winds will continue around 5-10 kt which should prevent fog development, however cannot rule out a few hours of IFR/LIFR stratus around 9-13z. Confidence is not high enough to include a bkn cigs at this time and just include sct low clouds in the TAFs at this time.

Saturday night through Tuesday As of 3 AM Fri, Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will produce sub VFR conditions at times through the period. In addition conditions will be favorable for periods of low clouds and fog early each morning.

Marine

Through Saturday As of 230 PM Friday, Presently seeing SW winds around 10-15 kt with seas around 1-3 ft across the waters but expect gradients to tighten through the shortwave as a system approaches from the NW. Sw winds expected around 10-20 kt late this afternoon through Saturday morning with seas building to 3-5 ft. Could see occasional gusts to 25 kt late tonight across the central waters/Pamlico Sound. Gradients tighten further Saturday afternoon with winds become 15-25 kt, strongest across the coastal waters and Pamlico Sound with seas building to 2-5 ft across the northern waters and 4-6 ft south of Oregon Inlet.

Saturday night through Tuesday As of 3 AM Fri, SCA conditions likely to continue into Saturday night and early Sunday. Little change to the surface pattern of a trough of low pressure inland and high pressure offshore into early next. Sw winds 15-25 kt continue Saturday night, strongest south of Oregon Inlet with seas 4-6 ft. Sw winds 10-20 kt continue Sunday with seas 3-5 ft. A weak front is forecast to drop into the northern waters Monday and Monday night before lifting back to the north Tuesday. W/SW winds 5-15 kt early Monday with seas 2-4 ft, becoming E/SE across the northern waters and remaining SW south of Hatteras. S/SW winds return for all waters Tuesday 5-15 kt early increasing to 10-20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2-4 ft early building to 3-5 ft.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Nc, none. Marine, small craft advisory from midnight tonight to 6 am EDT Sunday for amz135. Small craft advisory from midnight tonight to 8 am EDT Sunday for amz152-154-156. Small craft advisory from noon Saturday to 6 am EDT Sunday for amz150-158.

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