Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City Nc

631 pm EDT Wed Mar 22 2017

Synopsis

High pressure will build in from the northwest tonight and Thursday then slide offshore Friday. The high will remain offshore through the weekend with the next frontal system approaching the middle of next week.

Near Term

Until 6 am Thursday morning As of 625 PM Wednesday, Low pressure continues to pull well away from the coast as strong high pressure builds south from the southern Great Lakes. Strong CAA will continue this evening with gusty north winds gradually diminishing after midnight per latest HRRR/RAP wind fields. Most of the patchy clouds have moved to our south and skies will be generally clear overnight. With diminishing winds, low temperatures tonight will drop into upper 20s to lower 30s inland with mainly mid to upper 30s beaches. Freeze Warning in effect for inland portions of Carteret and Onslow counties where growing season has officially started.

Short Term

6 am Thursday morning through 6 pm Thursday As of 330 PM Wednesday, Arctic high pressure will continue to build in from northwest with fair skies but temps 10-15 degrees below normal. Highs ranging from mid 40s northern Outer Banks to mid 50s inland.

Long Term

Thursday night through Wednesday As of 245 PM Wednesday, Above normal temperatures expected this weekend into early next week. A frontal system will approach from the west late in the weekend bringing an increased chance of showers that will continue into the first part of next week.

Thursday night through Friday night, Cold again Thu night/Fri morning with temperatures near/a few degrees below freezing inland and 35 to 40 along the coast. The high moves offshore Fri bringing moderating temperatures as S/SW flow develops. Highs Fri in the low 60s along the coast, and mid to upper 60s inland. Lows Fri night in upper 40s to lower 50s.

Saturday through Wednesday, High pressure will remain anchored offshore Sat into early next week, with above normal temperatures expected as warm moist S/SW flow continues across the region. Low level thickness values support highs 65-70 degrees along the Outer Banks, and upper 60s to upper 70s inland. Overnight lows in the 50s.

Models continue to trend drier this weekend into early next week. Though could see scattered shower/isolated tstm Sunday afternoon/evening into Monday as a weak shortwave moves through the Carolinas, with best chances remaining west of the coastal plain. A vertically stacked low pressure system is forecast to track across the Ohio River Valley Sun, then gradually weaken as it moves off the Mid-Atlantic coast Mon. Uncertainty continues with this system, but the ECMWF and WPC are trending towards the GFS, which keeps the associated front and best forcing N/W of the area. Latest guidance now shows stronger system moving through the Mid- Atlantic Tuesday night, pushing a cold front through ENC Wed. Will continue 20 to 30 pops Sun through Tue, though right now the best chance looks like Tue and Tue night. Will also keep thunder mention into Tue with marginal instability and shear.

Aviation

00z Thursday through Monday Through 00z Friday As of 630 PM Wednesday, High confidence of VFR conditions prevailing through the TAF cycle. Patches of cumulus and high clouds have generally moved south of our area and skies will be clear overnight. Overnight, winds slack off some but remain around 10 knots, and this combined with an influx of dry air, will inhibit any fog formation overnight. Sunny skies and lighter winds are expected for Thursday.

Thursday night through Monday As of 245 PM Wed, Predominant VFR conditions expected Thursday through Sunday, though cannot rule out patchy early morning fog. Periods of sub-VFR conditions possible Sunday and Monday as a frontal system approaches the region with scattered showers developing.

Marine

, Through Thursday .. As of 630 PM Wednesday, With winds diminishing fairly quickly, have made some changes to the headlines. With occasional gusts to 35 knots, will continue to Gale Warnings for the Ocracoke to Oregon Inlet leg into the evening. Have dropped all other Gale Warnings and gone to Small Craft Advisories for all but the inland rivers. Will re-evaluate how late into Thursday to extend the SCA's on the next update. Latest high-resolution HRRR/RAP models indicate winds diminishing after midnight as high pressure builds south from the southern Great Lakes. Seas are in the 7-10 foot range over the central and northern waters with 5-8 feet over the south. Seas will remain elevated overnight but should subside on Thursday.

Thursday night through Monday As of 245 PM Wed, E/NE winds 10-15kt Thu night with seas 2-4 feet. High pressure will shift off the coast Friday and Friday night, with southerly flow developing by Fri afternoon. S/SW winds generally 5-15 kt expected Fri night through Monday, ahead of approaching frontal system. Seas this weekend into early next week 2-4 feet, with some 5 feet on the outer waters south of Oregon Inlet Monday.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Nc, high surf advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ncz103. Freeze warning from 3 am to 9 am EDT Thursday for ncz095-098. Marine, small craft advisory until 2 am EDT Thursday for amz130-131- 135-150-156-158. Gale warning until 9 pm EDT this evening for amz152-154.

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