Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City Nc

700 am EDT Mon Oct 15 2018

Synopsis

A weak warm front will lift north through the area this morning. A cold front will move through Tuesday morning, followed quickly by a second cold front Wednesday. High pressure will build in from the northwest late in the week. Another cold front is expected to move through the area this weekend.

Near Term

Today As of 7 AM Mon, Latest sfc analysis shows 1024mb high pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coast and weak warm front lifting north through Eastern NC. The front should push north of the area by late morning and early afternoon. Latest radar imagery shows area of light showers pushing along the immediate coast pushing eastward toward the Outer Banks this morning. Light showers this morning have been able to develop with some weak warm air advection in place and isentropic lift. Tough precip forecast today, with several models now trending wetter across the area showing the potential for scattered showers. Stronger forcing remains north of the area, though with the boundary in the vicinity and decent moisture and instability in place, should be enough to support slight chance pops. The models do indicate some mid level drying in the afternoon which would inhibit this threat. Another day where we expect to see more clouds than Sun, though may end up being too pessimistic with respect to the cloud cover forecast. Very warm temps expected today, about 5-10 degrees above climo, with low level southerly flow developing and 850mb temps climbing to around 16C. Highs today in the low to mid 80s.

Short Term

Tonight As of 3 AM Mon, A cold front will approach the area from the NNW tonight, moving through Tuesday morning. Could see cloud cover scatter out early, increasing late ahead of the front. Isolated showers early, with better chances towards sunrise with the boundary. Mild temps overnight with clouds and light SW/WSW winds, lows 65-70 degrees.

Long Term

Tuesday through Sunday As of 315 am Monday, A cold front will push through Tuesday morning, then secondary cold front to follow on Wednesday with the highest rainfall Tuesday into Wednesday. Seasonal fall weather returns late week. Tuesday and Wednesday, A cold front will move through the area Tuesday morning. Models are suggesting the best moisture convergence to be along the frontal boundary as the front pushes through, even though moisture profile is not overall impressive. Will continue the mention of scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms, but think most of the afternoon will be isolated to rain free. As the frontal boundary will be right off the ENC coast Tuesday, a weak low is expected to form and move along it Tuesday night, meanwhile the secondary cold front moves into the area. These two features will enhance moisture across the area Tuesday night through midday Wednesday; this will be our best shot at rainfall. Any lingering showers by afternoon would be confined to the far south.

High temperatures for Tuesday a little tricky as the frontal boundary expected to be across the southern parts of the forecast area, there will be a gradient ranging in the 70s and reaching into 80 degrees. Wednesday, with a combination of clouds, rain, and cooler air continuing to work in behind the front, expect highs in the 70s areawide.

Wednesday night through Friday, High pressure will build into the region from the NW bringing a drier and cooler airmass. The center of the high will move offshore Friday afternoon. Both days look beautiful with highs in the the 60s to near 70, and overnight lows dropping into the 40s inland to 50s at the coast. Classic fall weather for Eastern North Carolina.

Saturday through early next week, Models are showing another cold front to approaching the area Saturday with rain associated with it, then high pressure building behind the front Sunday and Monday.

Aviation

12z Monday through Friday Through tonight As of 7 AM Mon, VFR conditions currently across the terminals. Isolated showers are possible late morning through this afternoon, but not enough coverage to warrant a mention in at this time. Sub-VFR ceilings, possibly IFR, will likely develop late tonight and early Tuesday morning ahead of a cold front.

Tuesday through Friday As of 315 AM Mon, Mostly VFR conditions for most of the week, except for Tuesday through Wednesday mid-morning with sub-VFR conditions. Expect scattered showers Tuesday and Wednesday as two cold fronts pushes through the area.

Marine

Through tonight As of 7 AM Mon, High pressure centered off the Mid-Atlantic coast this morning will move further east today allowing a weak warm front to lift north through the waters. The front should be north of the waters by late morning and early afternoon. Latest obs show S/SE winds 10-15 kt with seas 2-3 ft. Southerly winds 10-15 kt today, becoming SW 15-20 kt tonight. Seas continue at 2-3 ft today building to 2-4 ft tonight. A stronger cold front will approach the waters late tonight, pushing through from north to south Tuesday morning. A strong surge of northerly winds, 15-25 kt, is expected to develop early Tuesday morning. Brief period of SCA conditions could develop around sunrise across the northern waters and Albemarle Sound.

Tuesday through Friday As of 330 AM Mon, A series of two cold fronts will push through the coastal waters starting Tuesday morning, then another late Tuesday night/Wednesday. Winds will shift into the northwest and then northeast creating a surge of stronger winds by Wednesday night into Thursday.

The first cold front will shift winds into the west by daybreak Tuesday, and north by Tuesday afternoon. Wind speeds will remain 10 to 20 kts with possible gusty winds up to 25 knots and seas 2 to 4 feet. Gusty conditions continue over the waters Wednesday out of the northwest with the approach of the second front. A surge of stronger winds behind this front will produce small craft conditions by Wednesday night with sustained northwest winds close to 20 kts, with higher gusts. This surge of northerly winds 20-25+ kts linger over the waters right through most of Thursday. Seas will range from 4 to 6 feet, highest over the central and northern waters. Thursday night, winds start to diminish 10-20 knots and then 5-10 knots Friday with seas subsiding below 6 ft.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Nc, none. Marine, none.

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