High pressure will provide quiet weather through the end of the week with a gradual warming trend. A cold front will move through the area this weekend, with high pressure building in late weekend into early next week.
Through today As of 300 AM Thu, Deep upper low continues to swirl over the Great Lakes and southern Canada this morning with broad troughing continuing to extend over the eastern half of the CONUS. Mid-level heights are forecast to rise through the day and into the evening as a second shortwave and clipper-esque system dives out of the Canadian prairies and kicks the deeper low towards Hudson Bay. At the surface, weak high pressure continues to hang on across the southeastern CONUS sandwiched between an offshore stalled front and cold front extending across the Midwest and into the southern plains.
Overnight, Mainly clear, but like last night some spotty very shallow fog is possible. Best chances are closest to the coast.
Today, Surface high will weaken further as front gradually advances eastward, but moisture column is forecast to remain quite dry (PWATs at around an inch) so skies will likely stay mainly clear. With increasing heights aloft temps will continue to climb into the mid to upper 80s inland, and near 80 along the water - near normal for this time of year. With southwesterly flow ahead of the front (up to 10 mph with some spotty gusts in the afternoon with passing shortwave), expecting an uptick in humidity.
Tonight As of 300 AM Thu, Front will continue to make its approach overnight with an uptick in showers and thunderstorms across the western part of the state, but we will remain dry and mostly clear despite a steady increase of moisture pooling ahead of the frontal boundary. That moisture increase will bring a noticeable change in overnight temps, especially along the water as lows return to the low 70s and mid 60s inland.
Friday through Wednesday As of 215 AM Thu,
Key Messages
- Temperatures gradually warming into Saturday
- Cooler and unsettled late this weekend into early next week
Friday, The pattern will remain active with sfc high pressure ridging in from the NE, upper troughing over the eastern US while multiple shortwaves pivot through. Weak cold front will approach the area Friday, though will likely stall and dissipate to the west. Despite the pattern, looks to remain mostly dry over eastern NC, with only potential for isolated showers. Temps will continue to gradually warm closer to climo, with highs climbing back towards 90 deg inland and mid 80s for the beaches Fri.
Saturday through Wednesday, Complex low pressure system will continue to push through Canada, while upper trough pivots through the eastern US, and cold front approaches from the west. The front will move through Saturday night into early Sunday. Ahead of the front Saturday, moist SSW flow will allow for temps to warm into the low 90s inland and mid/upper 80s along the coast. Isolated showers and storms will be possible Sat night. High pressure will build in from the north Sunday and early next week. Weak wedge looks to set up behind the front into early next week, as front lingers offshore (waves developing along it) and potential coastal troughing, which would give way to NE flow, more clouds than Sun and increased shower chances, with best chances along the coast. High temps will fall back into the upper 70s to low 80s, and lows in the 60s-70 deg.
06z Thursday through Monday Through 06z Friday As of 300 AM Thu, Mainly VFR conditions prevail at terminals as high pressure hangs on over eastern NC. Like last night, some spotty fog is being picked up across some terminals. Given considerable dry air aloft and a very shallow low-level saturated layer, any fog threat tonight will remain shallow and highly variable. Model soundings show ever-so-slightly better low level moisture closer to the coast and maintained MIFG mention for EWN, expanded to OAJ.
Any vis restrictions end quickly after sunrise with another day of clear skies. Winds out of the southwest at around 10 kt, potentially with a few gusts in the afternoon as shortwave transits aloft.
Friday through Monday As of 215 AM Thu, Pred VFR conditions expected through Saturday. While probs remains low, there will be potential for patchy sub- VFR fog and/or stratus each morning. A cold front will move through Saturday night and early Sunday. Widespread sub-VFR cigs may develop behind the front Sunday, potentially lingering into Monday.
Through Thursday As of 300 AM Wed, Conditions continue to improve over area waters as high pressure remains overhead. Winds across all zones are at 5 kt or less, and seas have now fallen to around 2-4 feet offshore. Very little change in offshore conditions forecast today as winds increase out of the south to southwest after sunrise ahead of a cold front approaching the mid-Atlantic. A few gusts up to 15 kt are possible in the late afternoon with a passing shortwave, highest probability for the waters north of Hatteras.
Friday through Monday As of 215 AM Thu,
Key Messages:
- SCA conditions likely to develop early next week
S-SW winds 5-15 kt Fri and Sat as a cold front approaches from the west. The cold front will move through the waters Saturday night and early Sunday. Moderate NNE flow will develop behind the front Sunday 10-15 kt, increasing to 15-25 kt Monday. Seas will remain at 2-4 ft into the weekend, building to 4-7 ft Monday.
Nc, none. Marine, none.
