Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City Nc

732 am EDT Sat may 25 2019


High pressure will push off the Mid-Atlantic coast today then become centered off the Southeast coast Sunday. Another backdoor front will move into the region Monday, but then will quickly retreat north Tuesday, with very hot temperatures expected across the region through at least the middle of next week. A cold front is expected to move into the area Friday.

Near Term

Until 6 pm this evening As of 3 AM Saturday, Upper ridging across the Southeast will continue to bring dry and warm conditions across the area today, although surface high pressure migrating off the Mid- Atlantic coast will bring easterly winds across the region bringing slightly cooler temps today. Low level thicknesses are progged to be around 10-20m lower with 850mb temps down from 19C yesterday afternoon to around 16C this afternoon. Highs are expected to range from the lower 90s inland to low to mid 80s along the coast.

Short Term

6 pm this evening through 6 am Sunday As of 300 AM Saturday, Weak shortwave energy rides over the ridge tonight and several models showing isolated showers or thunderstorms across the area after midnight, so increased PoPs to slight chance for much of the area late tonight. At the surface, high pressure migrates south off the East Coast becoming centered off the NC coast late tonight with low level flow becoming southerly after midnight. Lows tonight expected in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Long Term

Sunday through Friday As of 350 AM Saturday, A subtropical surface ridge coupled with an abnormally strong late-Spring upper level ridge will continue to produce hot and mostly dry weather for much of the next week. Well above normal temperatures well into the 90s inland are expected Sunday through at least Thursday. The axis of heat peaks on Wednesday where several inland locations could reach 100 degrees or a little higher. Even on the coast, high temperatures will likely reach 90 degrees or better in many locations during this heat waves. Overnight lows will likewise be quite warm with mostly upper 60s inland and 70s near the coast.

Differential heating boundaries in the afternoon and evening could produce an isolated shower or storm most any day, but the coverage of any precipitation is very low and have left out of the forecast through Thu. The upper ridge finally shows signs of breaking down later Thursday into early next week as heights fall and a bit more moisture enters the area. Have kept a slight chance of showers/storms Friday with chance PoPs for Saturday.


12z Saturday through Wednesday Through 06z Sunday As of 730 AM Saturday, VFR conditions expected to prevail through the TAF period. Upper ridging will will bring dry conditions today, but weak shortwave energy rides over the ridge tonight and could see an isolated shower or thunderstorm across rtes late tonight. Light easterly flow this morning, becomes southeast around 10 kt mid to late afternoon into the evening hours.

Sunday through Wednesday As of 220 PM Friday, VFR conditions are likely throughout the extended period. Cannot rule out patchy shallow fog or stratus early in the morning each day, but the extent should be short and limited. The chances of showers/tstms will also be very slim.


Through tonight As of 315 AM Saturday, High pressure migrates off the Mid- Atlantic coast today, then moves to off the NC coast late tonight. Expect generally easterly winds around 10 kt or less expected through early afternoon, then winds veer to SE and increase to 10-15 kt late this afternoon, becoming S late tonight. Seas expected around 2-3 ft into early evening, then builds to 3-4 ft late after midnight with up to 5 ft possible across the outer central waters.

Sunday through Wednesday As of 355 AM Saturday, SW winds are likely to increase to 15-20 knots over the coastal waters late Sunday into Sunday night as a weak front approaches from the northwest. This front will get far enough south to produce a wind shift to NE/E Monday and Monday over the northern tier. The front will lift back N on Tuesday with winds becoming SSW 10 to 20 kts on the coastal waters and Sounds. Ssw winds persist Wed at 10 to 15 kts early with some 15 to 20 knot winds likely late.

Seas will build to 3-5 feet late Sunday into Sunday, but should remain in the 2-4 foot range for much of the extended period.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Nc, none. Marine, none.

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