Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City Nc

1032 pm EDT Fri may 29 2020

Synopsis

A cold front will continue to slowly approach the area from the west tonight and Saturday moving offshore Saturday night. High pressure will build into the region late this weekend and early next week.ild into the region late this weekend and early next week.

Near Term

Until 6 am Saturday morning As of 1025 PM Friday, Latest surface analysis continues to show a deep flow of moisture with waning showers and thunderstorms across much of the southeastern CONUS tonight. Convective activity expected to continue offshore for much of the night (as is common) with a relative lull inland. Grids in good shape this hour with no changes needed.

Prev disc, Deep moisture remains in place across eastern NC fueling bands of thunderstorms with heavy downpours at late afternoon. Flood Advisories were issued earlier for northwest Duplin County and are currently in effect in the Jacksonville area. This area coincides with the best Theta-E and precipitable water axis. Should see activity slowly work toward the coast over the next few hours, then a lull can be expected one again later this evening into tonight. The latest HRRR and 3km NAM show showers and storms redeveloping near or just offshore toward morning, much like this morning, and blossoming along the coast by daybreak Saturday. Pops continue in the high chance to likely category this evening, dropping back to chance overnight as loss of heating leads to at least some dissipation of the convection. Another warm and muggy night expected with lows 69-73 degrees.

Short Term

6 am Saturday morning through 6 pm Saturday As of 315 PM Friday, Another surge of deep moisture ahead of a slow-moving cold front will lead to widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms Saturday. Precipitable waters in excess of 2 inches will again make heavy downpours the primary threat tomorrow. Most of the area is also in a Marginal Threat of severe weather. Although low-level shear is limited, there could be a brief wet microburst or two during the day. What breaks that occur in the clouds will lead to a very warm afternoon as thickness values support highs in the low to mid 80s area-wide.

Long Term

Saturday night through Friday As of 245 AM Friday, A cold front will approach the area Saturday evening, then push offshore early Sunday with high pressure building into the region early next week providing drier and cooler weather. High pressure moved offshore by the middle of the week with a series of disturbances bringing rain chances back into the forecast.

Saturday night, The upper level trough and cold front approach the area Saturday evening. Temps will remain quite mild, with lows only in the mid to upper 60s.

Sunday through Tuesday, The front is progged to be offshore by Sunday morning with high pressure building in from the northwest through the day. The high will be centered across the area Monday and Tuesday with NW downslope flow aloft bringing dry and much more comfortable conditions with dewpoints dropping into the 40s and 50s and temps about 5-10 degrees below normal with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s.

Tuesday night through Thursday, High pressure will slide offshore Tuesday night with a series of weak disturbances moving through the NW flow aloft bring a chance of showers across the area through the middle of the week. Sw return flow around the high offshore will bring much warmer temps with highs well into the 80s, and could approach 90 on Thursday.

Aviation

03z Saturday through Wednesday Through 18z Saturday As of 800 PM Fri, Variable flight conditions across the region today with predominantly VFR conditions with pockets of sub-VFR in heavier rainfall/shower activity. Biggest question tonight is whether fog or stratus will overspread the region pre-dawn. Satellite trends suggest mainly broken to overcast conditions will prevail especially thanks to downstream convection streaming across the region, but if some regions sufficiently clear low-level moisture profiles combined with light winds certainly could promote fog. Uncertainty here is too high to mention explicitly in TAFs but did show MVFR ceilings.

More seabreeze shower/thunderstorm activity is expected tomorrow afternoon with MVFR conditions in the morning giving way to variable flight conditions by the afternoon with predominant VFR except in showers/storms.

Saturday night through Wednesday As of 330 PM Friday, An unsettled pattern will continue Saturday night bringing periods of sub-VFR condition to the terminals. With S/SW flow aloft, expect predominantly MVFR conditions with occasional IFR/LIFR in heavier downpours. A cold front will push across rtes early Sunday with high pressure and a much drier airmass building into the area bringing pred VFR conditions Sunday through Tuesday.

Marine

Tonight and Saturday As of 1030 PM Fri, Small Craft seas have failed to materialize per observations and winds are not expected to increase beyond current levels. Dropped the headline although couple 6 foot waves are not out of the question overnight.

Prev disc, At late afternoon, winds are S/SSW at 10-20 knots with seas 3-5 feet, with some 6-footers over the outer central waters. No big change in the overall forecast thinking. A cold front will continue to slowly approach from the west tonight, as S/SW winds 10-20 kt will continue tonight. Winds Saturday should primary be 10-15 knots from the SW with seas 3-5 feet as Small Craft Advisories expire during late morning.

Saturday night through Wednesday As of 330 PM Friday, A cold front will slowly approach from the NW Saturday night before moving offshore Sunday morning. Winds become N/NE around 10-20 kt with gust to around 25 kt at times with seas around 3-6 ft Sunday into Monday. High pressure will become centered across the area Tuesday bringing light and variable winds and seas around 2 to 3 ft.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Nc, none. Marine, none.

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