Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City Nc

940 pm EDT Fri jul 19 2019

Synopsis

Hot and humid conditions continue through early next week as the area remains between subtropical high pressure offshore and weak troughing inland. A front will approach the area Tuesday before crossing Wednesday, bringing much needed relief from the heat for the second half of the week.

Near Term

Until 6 am Saturday morning As of 940 PM, Afternoon convection across coastal NC has dissipated, as has most thunderstorm activity across central NC. Expecting a quiet night with dry conditions. Very warm again with temps remaining in the mid to upper 70s inland, and the upper 70s to low 80s along the coast.

Short Term

6 am Saturday morning through 6 pm Saturday As of 710 PM Friday, No change to the weather pattern as high pressure offshore continues to extend over the SE US with a trough inland, and strong ridging aloft. The main story for Saturday will be the dangerous heat and humidity. Low level thickness values averaging AOB 1440 meters, 850 mb temps around 20C, and winds aloft becoming WSW, all support temperatures reaching into mid to upper 90s inland, and into the upper 80s to low 90s along the coast. An Excessive Heat Warning has been issued for the area for most Eastern NC counties except Carteret, Coastal Onslow, Outer Banks Dare and Hyde which are in a Heat Advisory. Heat indices inland will be 110 to 115, while slightly lower temps along the coast, will keep heat indices in the 105 to 110 range.

Isolated to widely scattered showers/thunderstorms are expected to develop along the sea breeze as the atmosphere remains unstable, but with little shear (less than 15 knots).

Long Term

Saturday night through Friday As of 325 PM Friday, Very hot and humid conditions continue through the weekend. Relief comes by the middle of next week as a cold front reaches the area.

Saturday night into Sunday, Strong upper ridging prevails through the weekend. At the surface, subtropical high pressure well offshore slides further south, bringing more of a westward component to the low level flow as weak troughing persists inland. While the west-southwesterly low level flow will inhibit the progression of the sea breeze and suppress afternoon convection below normal summertime levels, it will also bring low level thickness values corresponding to highs in the mid to upper 90s across the area. Realized highs will depend largely on cirrus streaming overhead, but several locations reaching 100 (near record highs) will be possible. These warm temps combined with dew points in the mid to upper 70s will bring heat index values to around 110 during the afternoon hours away from the beaches. May need a second day of Excessive Heat Warning for interior locations for Saturday, with heat advisories likely along the immediate coast. Saturday night will also be warm, upper 70s inland to lower 80s along the southern coast and OBX.

Monday through Wednesday, Heights aloft begin to fall later in the day Monday as the upper ridge breaks down and troughing begins to develop across the Eastern US. While the subtropical high remains in control Monday, a cold front associated with low pressure developing off the New England coast will approach Tuesday. Deep moisture convergence ahead of this front looks ample enough to justify the continuation of likely POPs Tuesday into Tuesday night. Wednesday is uncertain as the front could stall inland with a wave developing along it during the day, ushering the front through as the wave slides northward over the Mid-Atlantic coast later Wednesday. Realized rainfall totals will depend on the timing and progression of these features, but some locations could receive 1-2+ inches or rainfall Tuesday into Wednesday.

Temps will remain above normal Monday and will likely need a Heat Advisory for the area due to the cold front slowing down in its movement to the coast. Temps become more seasonable, or possibly below normal, Tuesday and Wednesday, depending on the progression of the front.

Thursday and Friday, The remains lower confidence than normal for the far extended range due to uncertainty with stalled front along the coast for the end of the workweek. Could see scattered showers and thunderstorms both days, best chances for eastern portions of Eastern NC. Temps will range at or just below normal for late July, upper 80s to near 90 inland, mid 80s along the coast.

Aviation

02z Saturday through Wednesday Through tomorrow evening As of 710 PM Fri, VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF period. Conditions will remain quite mixed overnight, which should prevent any fog or low stratus. Mostly sunny tomorrow, with some isolated thunderstorms possible in the afternoon.

Saturday through Wednesday As of 330 PM Friday, VFR conditions prevail into early next week with gusty WSW to SW winds and the potential for brief flight restrictions in passing showers and thunderstorms mainly during the days. A cold front approaching the area Tuesday will bring increasingly unsettled weather into the middle of the week. Increasing confidence in sub-VFR conditions Tuesday night through Wednesday due to reduced ceilings/vsbys in showers and thunderstorms associated with the frontal passage.

Marine

Through Saturday As of 720 pm Friday, Latest buoy obs show SW winds 10-20 kt with gusty winds up to 20 kts over the central waters and seas are 3-5 ft. Sw winds will diminish gradually to 10-15 knots by Saturday morning, then increase in the afternoon/evening to SW 15-20 knots. Seas will be 3-5 ft and gradually subside 3-4 ft Saturday with 5ft seas developing late Saturday afternoon.

Saturday night through Wednesday As of 335 PM Friday, The gradient will relax a bit over the weekend as moderate WSW flow prevails, with 3 to 5 ft seas. Early next week, an approaching cold front will bring increasing southwesterly flow, with 15 to 25 kt winds expected to bring seas to 5 to 7 ft Monday, likely necessitating Small Craft Advisories. Improving wind and sea conditions could arrive Tuesday as the front moves over the area, but model timing and feature differences make the forecast more uncertain by late Tuesday into Tuesday night. The front is forecast to move just off the NC coast by Wednesday morning, resulting in northwesterly to northerly winds across the waters, 5-15 kt with seas mostly 2-3 ft during the day Wednesday.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Nc, heat advisory from 11 am to 7 pm EDT Saturday for ncz195-196- 199-203>205. Excessive heat warning from 11 am to 7 pm EDT Saturday for ncz029-044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193-194-198. Marine, none.

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