Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City Nc

1037 pm EDT Fri Sep 30 2022

Synopsis

Post-tropical Cyclone Ian will bring widespread impacts to eastern NC into the weekend. Unsettled weather may continue into early next week depending on the track of the remnants of Ian across the Mid- Atlantic. High pressure builds in from the west mid to late next week.

Near Term

Overnight As of 1040 PM Friday, Conditions are quickly improving across the area and will remove all TS Warnings with next update. Please see HLSMHX for full impact details from Ian.

Post Tropical Cyclone Ian will continue to move slowly inland through tonight. East of Ian, a mid-level dryslot is moving off the Atlantic and inland across ENC. Latest radar imagery shows bands of showers and isolated tstms still streaming in along the coast, which may continue through the overnight. Dropped Flood Watch and Tor Watch earlier this evening.

Short Term

Saturday As of 500 PM Friday, On Saturday, a north to south oriented confluent boundary east of Ian may continue to support a band or two of convection, especially across central and eastern sections of ENC. I trimmed back pops a bit across our western counties, but held onto slight chance/chance pops to the east where the best chance of continued showers/storms will be. The better shear and instability will shift north away from the area, so it appears that the risk of damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be LOW. Given residual shear in place, though, the severe weather risk isn't zero.

Long Term

Saturday night through Friday As of 5 PM Fri, The remnant low related to TC Ian may linger around through early next week. High pressure eventually builds in by midweek, for a quieter stretch of weather.

Sunday Night through Tuesday, Much disagreement on where remnants of Ian will linger, but it could continue to be unsettled with remnants of Ian lingering in the Southeast or Mid Atlantic. Global guidance currently suggesting the remnant cutoff low from Ian will merge with an upper level trough Sunday into Monday, resulting in the formation of a broad coastal low off the NC/VA coastline. While it remains too early for specifics, impacts from such a coastal low would result in increased rain chances along the OBX and additional coastal concerns during this period.

Wednesday and Thursday, Guidance currently shows high pressure building in from the west, pushing the aforementioned coastal feature out to sea, bringing in a quieter stretch of weather.

Aviation

03z Saturday through Wednesday Through Saturday As of 1040 PM Fri, Pred MVFR conditions across the sites late this evening. Mvfr will likely hold on through the first part of Sat with cigs grad scatting out and returning to VFR. Wind gusts will continue to slowly subside, but could still see gusts 15-25 kt.

Saturday night through Wednesday As of 325 AM Fri, Rain chances return Sunday. A coastal low may develop Monday into Tuesday, bringing a surge of Nrly winds with potential flight restrictions along the OBX coastline.

Marine

Through Saturday As of 1040 PM Friday, Tropical storm force gusts continue across the coastal waters late this evening, so will leave headlines up for the waters and drop for the sounds and inland rivers. Very dangerous seas of 10-15 ft have been observed in very rough windswell, which will be replaced by medium period southerly swell by tonight. Winds will continue to veer to the south for all waters and diminish below Tropical Storm force as Ian weakens inland to our west. Seas will subside to 7-10 ft late.

Saturday night through Wednesday As of 5 PM Friday, Sunday, winds are currently expected to turn back NNE at 10-15 kts with 3-5 ft seas. At the moment, model guidance is struggling to forecast where the remnants of Ian may end up. How that unfolds will impact whether or not a coastal low decides to develop late Sunday into Monday and Tuesday, potentially bringing poor marine conditions across the northern and central waters. Currently, forecast models are suggesting this, but it is highly dependent on what ends up happening with Ian.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Nc, tropical storm warning for ncz204-205. Coastal flood advisory until 8 am EDT Saturday for ncz045>047. Storm surge watch for ncz080-081-094-195-196-199-203>205. Storm surge warning for ncz094-194. Beach hazards statement through Saturday evening for ncz195- 196-199-203>205. High surf advisory until noon EDT Saturday for ncz195-196-199- 203>205. Marine, small craft advisory until noon EDT Saturday for amz135. Tropical storm warning for amz150-152-154-156-158.

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