Swell Matrix

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City Nc

315 pm EST Sun Dec 9 2018

Synopsis

The coastal storm that has plagued the region will slowly move away from the coast through Tuesday. High pressure will build over the area Tuesday night through Thursday. Another strong storm system will affect the region the end of next week.

Near Term

Through tonight As of 3 PM Sun, Sfc low pres moving quickly up the Carolina coast this afternoon, and is located between Charleston and Myrtle Beach. The low is moving NE and following the corridor of the Gulf Stream, and will be located off the OBX overnight tonight. Myriad of coastal hazards will be in effect due to the strong gradient the low causes. 6 hrly pres falls are as high as 12MB this evening per latest 09/12Z model guide. Followed meso model suite (WRF-ARW, WRF-NMM, NAM) for winds, and it appears a period of high wind warning criteria will be met with some winds gusting to around 60 mph for the OBX, 45-55 mph for Carteret through Mainland Dare, Hyde, and Tyrrell counties. Widespread rain continues with deep layer lift across the area. There may be a break in the rain before upper level low to the west moves over NC and more widespread rain moves back in late tonight. No p-type issues overnight as temps aloft still above 2C.

Short Term

Monday As of 3 PM Sun, Upper level low will pivot through the region on Monday. Column will begin to cool through the day, and soundings indicate some wet snow may mix in with the rain for esp the northern coastal plain counties, where mix of ra/sn continues in the grids esp from mid morning to around noon. Temps will be quite cold with the precip, low stratus, and brisk NE winds. Highs range from the mid/upr 30s inland to the low/mid 40s coast. Winds will only slowly diminish through the day with the low pres only slowly moving away from the NC coast. In fact, may see secondary low pres develop by late in the day and esp in the evening, reinforcing the rain over the area, esp coastal counties.

Long Term

Monday night through Sunday As of 3 PM Sunday, Low pressure will gradually move away from the coast Monday night and Tuesday with high pressure building in from the north and northeast Wednesday and Thursday. Another strong system will arrive by early Friday producing potential heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds into early next week.

Monday night and Tuesday, With strong mid-level vorticity dropping through the base of the 500 mb trough leading to continued cyclogenesis just off our coast, precipitation is likely to continue Monday night before ending early Tuesday as the low finally moves away from the coast. Thermal profiles and soundings from the 3km NAM, GFS and ECMWF all support at least some mixed precipitation across the southern third of the CWA Monday night/early Tuesday. Will not include accumulations at this time, but would not be shocked if some areas closer to the coast could see a dusting. Low temperatures inland will be in the upper 20s with low/mid 30s near the coast. Any precipitation during Tuesday will be early and confined to coastal areas. Highs Tuesday will be in the low/mid 40s with around 50 Outer Banks.

Tuesday night through Thursday, High pressure will build in from the north and northeast through midweek with below normal temperatures and dry conditions expected. Highs will mostly be in the mid/upper 40s Wednesday, but will warm well into the 50s for Thursday.

Thursday night through Sunday, Another strong and dynamic storm system will impact eastern NC starting early Friday into next weekend. Ahead of the storm, temperatures will warm nicely with low/mid 60s for highs Friday and Saturday as this will be more of a Pacific-originated system. Concerns early on with this system will be the threat for very heavy rainfall as early GFS/ECMWF QPF already shows 2-4 inches, along with strong gusty winds. Some convective potential exists Friday night, and have thunder over the coastal waters. Too early to determine severe potential.

Aviation

19z Sunday through Friday Short Term /through tonight/ As of 1250 pm Sun, High confidence in IFR conditions for all the TAF sites across eastern NC today. An area of low pressure will lift northeast along the NC coast tonight. Widespread rain will continue through the TAF period with a brief break tonight. As the low lifts towards the NC expect NE gusty winds 20-30 knots through late tonight. Models and guidance are indicating flying conditions are to improve tomorrow afternoon from north to south with a northerly flow.

Long Term /Monday night through Friday/ As of 220 PM Sunday, Some mixed precipitation may occur at the southern TAF sites of KEWN, KISO and KOAJ overnight Monday into early Tuesday morning. With high pressure building over the region from the north and northeast, VFR conditions should prevail Wednesday and Thursday. Another storm system approaches from the west by early Friday and with developing showers, some sub-VFR conditions will be possible on Friday.

Marine

Through Monday As of 3 PM Sun, NE winds cont to inc as low pres strengthens and moves up the Carolina coast this afternoon. The low is centered just offshore between CHS and MYR, and will deepen as it moves up the NC coast this evening. Nrn/crtl waters as well as both sounds and the Alligator river are in a storm warning, given expected wind gusts around 50 kt this evening. The winds will gradually diminish towards daybreak. Rest of the marine gale warnings continue. Pres falls are quite dramatic this evening, on the order of 15mb/6hr, and latest meso model suite indicate NE sustained winds 35-45 kt with some gusts to 50 kt, and felt confident enough for the storm warning. May be more marginal on the Alligator/Albemarle. Seas build as high as 15-19 ft on the coastal waters, with waves as high as 4-6 ft on Pamlico sound.

Long Term /Monday Night through Friday/ As of 3 PM Sunday, Gusty northerly winds and rough seas will continue Monday night into Tuesday, driving seas as high as 10-15 feet as surface low slowly moves along the coast and pulls away during Tuesday. Winds and seas finally subside to below SCA during Wednesday afternoon/evening as high pressure settles over the waters, leading to a relatively benign Thursday with E/SE winds at 10-15 knots. As another strong and dynamic storm system approaches from the west by early Friday, SE/S winds will become gusty winds wind approaching Gale Force and seas building to 10-feet or greater by later in the day on Friday.

Watches, Warnings, Advisories

Nc, wind advisory until 4 am EST Monday for ncz046-047-081. High wind warning until 6 am EST Monday for ncz103-104. High surf advisory until 10 am EST Monday for ncz095-104. Coastal flood advisory from 1 am to 7 pm EST Monday for ncz104. Coastal flood warning until 7 pm EST Monday for ncz103. High surf advisory until 1 am EST Tuesday for ncz103. Coastal flood warning until 7 am EST Monday for ncz093>095. Wind advisory until 7 am EST Monday for ncz095. Coastal flood advisory until 4 am EST Monday for ncz080-081. Marine, gale warning until 6 am EST Monday for amz136-137. Storm warning until 6 am EST Monday for amz130-131-135-150-152- 154-156. Gale warning until 7 pm EST Monday for amz158.

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